I still would like to see the Jays get McGowan back. I still feel that he is building his strength back and he still has good stuff.

You'd think the Jays have some goodwill in the McGowan camp after the last contract they gave him. I too hope they can reach a reasonable deal.

I wonder if Bautista has goodwill in the Jays' camp after the nice deal he gave them. 

Somehow I don't think Anthopoulos thinks that way, either for deals that work out beneficially for the club or ones that work beneficially for the player. 

I'm confused by your analogy, because so many people thought the Bautista contract was a poor risk for the team; nobody thought he was doing them any favours.

McGowan pitched much better out of the pen over he last two years then his failed attempt at starting. As far as power righties on the cheap goes, he might be the best option in a 7th inning role.

I'd be surprised if McGowan got more than a minor league deal. His numbers were not very good in either role last season.

I'd be interested in someone like Beachy, but AA never does any incentive laden deals so that (coupled with the usual reasons Toronto can't attract free agents) will likely prevent a deal there.

My guess is AA has maxed out his payroll and we will see waiver claims and minor league deals from here on out. I've even given up on the hope of trading Navarro.

McGowan...
2nd half, purely relief: 21 IP 20 H 7 BB 19 K  -  solid.  Sept/Oct though he only pitched 6 times, 6 IP.  Wonder why...forget if he was hurt but not DL'ed (no point in September).
As reliever in 2014: 3.35 ERA 43 IP 34 H 16 BB vs 36 SO.  Decent but nothing 'wow' there.

Yeah, I'd give him a minor league deal in a second.  ML deal?  Harder to justify but maybe $1-2 mil at most.  Depends how much the Jays think they can count on him in 2015.  I'd like to see him back though as he has been here since drafted in the 2000 draft as a compensation pick for loss of Free Agent Graeme Lloyd who came via the Clemens/Wells trade.

McGowan has an astonishing home/road split in his latest comeback. For the last 2 years combined, his ERA at home is 6.19, and on the road it's 1.84. His ERA as a reliever has actually been better than Casey Janssen's each of the last 2 years.

McGowan's FIP as a reliever last season was 4.99 (4.13 xFIP). He shouldn't get more than a minor league deal. The Jays have been more than generous with their contracts to him when he couldn't pitch. Either he accepts a minor league deal or let him go elsewhere. I'd argue Belisario was more deserving of a MLB deal than McGowan, so if he's going for a minor league deal, then so should McGowan. For the record, I'm OK with bringing him back on a minor league deal.

I like McGowan, I think he's a back of the pen guy with the potential for a bit more. I'd personally offer him a guaranteed contract worth 750k-1 million. He could provide good value for the limited investment.

I feel McGowan & Hutchison should be better next year. They were both coming off injuries that were serious.
Hutchison had very little ML experience or success to use as a confidence boost at times of difficulty. I find that he is very smart and so will learn fast.
McGowan's season was a huge success. He was healthy and pitched a lot at the ML level. So he has to be pleased. He was at the "I will give it one more shot and then call it a career" stage. Janssen had to prove himself after his injuries and so did Edwin E. For that matter so did Bautista & C Carpenter.
I hope he pitches somewhere. Then we will know. I wish him well.

I wonder if McGowan is trying to find someone who will give him a shot as a starter again?  Often that delays things...players with a specific role in mind and not able to find a team willing to give it to them.

Carlos Villanueva could easily be in that boat too.  Y'know, he actually looks like someone who the Jays should chase down - 3.13 FIP last year due to a 0.7 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9 8.3 K/9 ratio.  His actual ERA was 4.64 due to a crazy 346 BABIP (lifetime is just 290).  Put him in the pen, give him a shot at starting in spring but know he is #8 on the list (Sanchez, Norris, Estrada).  Looks like a solid depth signing and at this point he might be desperate and sign a good deal ($2 mil or less).  What is funny is MLB Trade Rumors has nothing on him since mid 2013 it seems.

Agreed on villaneuva John, he could be a nice depth arm.

BP has their top ten Oakland prospects up- Barreto's number 1, Nolin 3, graveman 5.  No wonder they made the donaldson deal.

Interesting to note that Ricky Romero did not get a spring training invite, as per Bluebird Banter.  Nice to see org soldier Scott Copeland get an invite.

John Axford to the Rockies on a minor league deal - 2.3 million if he makes the team -seems like the guaranteed money if you make the team contract is what many relievers are going for right now. 

In all fairness, Oakland traded the majority of their prospects this past season. Only Franklin made the MLB Pipeline Top 100. Gravemam and Nolin are EXACTLY the type of prospects you want to trade for 4 years of Donaldson.

Dave Bergman passed away. Here's a memorable at-bat against the Jays from 30 years ago.

The Bergman news is really sad. I saw him on June 30th last year when the Tigers were celebrating the 30th anniversary of the 1984 team. Trammell and Whitaker threw out the first pitch which fittingly took place with them performing a 4-6-3 double play. Bergman was the first baseman that caught the throw.

The Orioles acquired Travis Snider yesterday, his 27th birthday, for a low-level prospect and a PTBNL.  Hopefully this deal will not go down in history as "Duquette's revenge". 

Snider could still break out. His biggest criticism has been his strikeout rate, and last year he reduced it significantly, while maintaining almost a 10% walk rate. It's not even a full season worth of at-bats, but still...

On the other hand, he couldn't hit righties to save his life last year, but for his career he's got a pretty even split.

Man, I hated that trade when it happened and now I hate it even more. Though I suppose there's no way to tell what kind of season he would've had last year if he was still getting jerked around by the Jays.

If anyone's interested, Paul Beeston will be on McCowan's Prime Time Sports show from 6:00 to 7:00 today.

I see that the Snider transaction occurred last week while I was away.  Spoiled a perfectly good off-hand remark that he was acquired on his 27th birthday....For what it's worth, as Frank Turner sang, I still believe.

If anyone's interested, Paul Beeston will be on McCowan's Prime Time Sports show from 6:00 to 7:00 today.

I'm watching and it's clear that Beeston is talking. His lips are moving and sound is coming out. But he's not saying anything. Not that I'd expect him to say anything. It's just generic blah blah blah. Interviews like this are pointless.

Kind of like watching a late night talk show or something. Hope they find that 18 win pitcher tho.

I am more interested in this year's spring training than i have been for a long time. It's going to be interesting to see how the pitching sorts itself out. My own preference is Sanchez for the open rotation spot, and Norris staying up in relief. I'm also looking forward to seeing Castro, Alford, D. Smith Jr., Mitch Nay, and Osuna, all of whom have invites. There are also some flyers that were taken on waivers or signed as free agents - Daric Barton and Matt West to name two - that i'll be interested in watching. This will all be in addition to seeing Donaldson, Russell Martin and Michael Saunders as first time Jays. Other than living on 80 cent dollars, I'm more intrigued by this year than perhaps any year past.

This year's roster is like a house of cards. A beautiful thing (potentially), if it holds up. Otherwise things could get messy.

Just picked up my Athlon Sports baseball preview magazine, the one I think is the best by a good margin. They have a top 50 prospect list which includes Norris at 19, Sanchez at 26 and Pompey at 30. They pick the Jays for 2nd, behind the Red Sox.

pompey at 43 is low, imo.

his track record and all around skillset is comparable and even better than some of the guys they have top 20.

the others are slotted appropriately, though the jays have a bunch of guys - hoffman, pentacost, osuna, castro - who could justifiably make the backend of any given top 100 list, though of course can justifiably not make it, too.

My general comment about most of the prospect rating services is that they don't have the right balance between pitching and position players.  I agree that Pompey is very low at #43, but it is symptomatic of an incorrect weighting of a possible #1 starter and a possible All-Star centerfielder.  Devon White was more valuable in his prime than most teams' best pitcher. 

It doesn't matter though.  Pompey is going to get his chance very, very soon and it won't matter whether a prospect rater has him at #43 and Tyler Glasnow (for instance) at #13 or vice versa. 

I agree with you there, but I also think jays' prospects have been overlooked in recent years. guys like stroman, hutch, syndergaard really deserved more hype for their spectacular milb numbers with legit mlb velocity and stuff. (syndergaard never got his deserved rank until he joined a much more high profile org).

if pompey was in the yanks or bosox orgs, then based on his tools and perormance I'm fairly certain he'd be a top 20 prospect at least.

that being said, guys who were high profile guys on draft day before the jays got them - I.e. sanchez, norris, hoffman have got plenty of respect, so its not a huge deal.

What do people know about Jayson Aquino? I think that looks like a nice pickup for the Jays

Beeston said enough if you're used to listening to him speaking. Budget would be in the $137.0 MM to $140.0 MM range, otherwise nothing A.A. has done makes sense. That $6.0 MM to $7.0 MM left certainly fits in that ballpark. Even though Anthopoulos undervalued the Reliever Market, if he had more to spend, we'd have at least acquired one Reliever by now.

I never worry when I hear the Jays lost money. With the value of the T.V. Contract being so grossly under-valued on the Roger's books, any loss less than $75.0 MM is not significant. "Hedging" should cover any currency shortfalls for at least the next one-two years as Sports Franchises usually pay Players in US Dollars. Basically it's not that significant in a Corporation this big.

Paul Beeston vetos an A.A. move. Who? I might suspect a Pitcher but I have no idea who it might be.

Cardinals have signed Carlos Villanueva to a minor league deal with ST invite. Wow - I think the Jays should have beat that offer. Or is Carlos in "want a ring" mode??

Seriously - $1.5m guaranteed would have been a decent pickup, IMHO.. Hello? McBeAAston? Anyone awake out there?

No one showed Jayson Aquino any love, he rotted in the DOSL a year and a half longer than he should have. The sooner you get Talent under MiLB control the better. Otherwise you trade a 25 year-old not on the 40-Man for a 22 year-old who is. Whomever the Jays DFA will being interesting, because Aquino will be considered an upgrade.

What is the Cardinals starting situation?  If Villanueva could be offered a shot as #6 or 7 there then he might be more interested than here where he'd be #7 most likely and if the Jays somehow get another starter he'd be down to #8.

Corporations definitely do not hedge a couple years worth of US funds. I just had a meeting with the CEO of a multi-multi-million dollar company in Canada and he said they did not hedge nearly enough for his Spring 2015 business. He buys all of his raw materials in US funds, and has to print his 2015 price list in the previous July. All analysts told him not to hedge too many dollars, as they weren't exactly sure where the dollar was going.

Another important point in the season will be the July 31 deadline. Will the Jays have any money to add a key player or two, or will we see a repeat of last year? It's easy to imagine scenarios where a deadline deal could make the difference for the 2015 Jays.

Jayson Aquino was DFAd by the Rockies. It says so on his profile. I do not know when. So the Jays had an interest and traded for him. This is all guess work on my part.

Now he has to go on the Jay's 40 man roster, so someone comes off. He was mediocre in the Cal league so he most likely goes to Dunedin, maybe NH. He will definitely burn 1 option in 2015, but should get to AA by the end of 2015 and he is very young. Also he is a starter.

T Ybarra was one of my favorites. I saw him, M Boyd, T Cole and J Stilson as bullpen candidates in 2015 if they pitched well. They will all be in AA or higher in 2015. None are on the 40 man roster.

I was always rooting for Ybarra, a lefty who throws hard. He could do well in Colorado because he does not give up many hits, strikes out a lot of guys and his walks are acceptable. I think this is the type of guy you need in a HR haven.

The Jays already DFA'd Chris Colabello, removing him from the 40 man.

I like Collabello as depth, but I can't see losing him at this point of the year.  I honestly don't follow the minor 40 man roster moves of other organizations so I have no reference point - are other teams spending as much time moving the deck chairs around as the Jays do? 

So disappointing that we are left to talk about deals like Aquino / Ybarra ...

In his chat from earlier today, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs agrees with those of us who think the Jays could use another starting pitcher. He thinks the Jays are an arm or two short, and that they should sign Shields, to a backloaded deal if necessary.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs agrees with those of us who think the Jays could use another starting pitcher.

There's no doubt we need another starter in addition to Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman and Hutch. But isn't that why we have Sanchez and Norris, two top-rated prospects? Seriously. Isn't that why we draft good young pitchers, so we don't end up having to enter into bad contracts with questionable acquisitions like James Shields? I'm much more interested in seeing what Sanchez in particular can do in the rotation than in overpaying for a 33 year old non-star like Shields.

So, most of us agree.

Shields solves more issues than Sanchez or Norris can. If not, Estrada is our #6 Starter with Andrew Albers, and Jeff Francis as #7 and #8.

Well, Sanchez & Norris are #5/6 with Estrada #7 really.  Then we have guys like Redmond & Jenkins who can be #8/9.  The Jays seem very high on Osuna so he could be #10 and have a shot at the staff this year at some point.  If we are getting into pitchers #11 and beyond for more than 1 or 2 starts then the team is screwed anyways.

John, in 2011, 2012 AND 2013 we used 12 starting pitchers.  Last year was an anomaly, when we only used 9, and may condition your perspective.

Nothing bad* can come from signing James Shields and many good things could happen.  For one to assume that all 5 of our anointed SP will remain healthy all season is absurd.


CDC, I assume your utterly dismissive comments about Shields are forward looking only - and therefore speculation and opinion on your part.  If you are talking about Shields' actual past performance I would like to take you to task...



*Unless you consider Rogers Inc losing some monopoly money a bad thing.

Nothing bad can come from signing James Shields and many good things could happen.

I am becoming fascinated with the idea of spoilage or "dead money" in baseball. An extreme example of spoilage is Alex Rodriguez's contract: the Yankees are committed to paying him 63 million dollars over the next three years whether he plays for them or not. The Vernon Wells Contract [tm] is another example. For the current Jays, Ricky Romero's contract is dead money: they have to pay him $8.1 million ($7.5 million for this year, plus a $600,000 buyout of his 2016 team option) even though he is not likely to help them.

The question is: how much spoilage is too much, and how much is simply the cost of doing business if you want to contend?

It's pretty much a given nowadays that, to land a free agent, you will have to sign him for more years than he is likely to be effective. To sign Big Game James, it'll probably take 5 years, unless his agent played too much hardball and the offers dried up. Shields is 33 now; he'll be 38 when his new contract expires. Will his value over the next couple of years be enough to offset the cost of paying for him when his effectiveness starts to decline?

This time last year, the free-agent pitcher that many fans wanted the Jays to sign was Ubaldo Jiminez. He had a not particularly good 2014, and the Orioles now owe him $39 million. The Jays want to avoid throwing money away like that.

I've always liked the rule that Thomas Boswell put forward: free agents are only worth signing if they are future Hall of Famers or close to it. A player who is among the best in the league is likely to retain value over the length of his contract. (Then again, Boswell wrote this long before Albert Pujols, so you never know.)

The Jays used 10+ the past few years, but generally for success you use fewer.  If the Jays (or any club really) uses over 10 starters for more than 1 or 2 starts they are dead in the water.

Check the AL East winners lately...
2014:Baltimore: 7 starters (#7 has 1 start)
2013: Boston: 11 starters, #10/11 1 start each, #9 just 3 starts
2012: Yankees: 8 starters, #8 had 1 start
2011: Yankees: 9 starters, #7/8/9 total of 5 starts (2/2/1 start)
2010: Tampa: 7 starters, #6/7 had just 4 each (!)
2009: Yankees: 9 starters, #9 just 1 start
2008: Tampa: 9 starters, #7/8/9 total of 4 starts just 5 for #6

So since 2008 (when Tampa moved from horrid to wow) only 1 team won the AL East using 10+ starters, Boston who had just 2 starts for #10/11.  #9 and beyond from 2008-2014 had a TOTAL of 8 starts over 7 years for the assorted AL East division winners.

What is the message?  Basically, if you are getting into your 9/10/11/... starters you are toast so spending resources on those is a waste of time.  Far better to focus on other priorities.  The Jays right now have 4 locked in, then Sanchez/Norris/Estrada/Redmond/Jenkins to cover up to starter #9 without factoring in kids on the farm who might develop (Osuna for example).  Unless someone signed is a near lock to be a 110+ ERA+ over 180+ IP I say screw it and focus elsewhere.

Agreed unless you are adding a quality proven or high-upside arm at 'value'.  Shields could be a great addition for the next 2-3 years but not worth the kinds of dollars needed to get him to Toronto (San Diego maybe), and lose a draft pick as well.  I would think of it like he adds 10% to our odds of getting to the playoffs once the next couple years (so if we are at 25% without him, then 35% with him), and reduces our odds of playoffs the following years by a much greater % (say from 25% to 5%) as a lot of our resources would be tied up in an underperforming asset.  Similar to how the Yankees are restricted now bc of A-rod, Sabathia, Tex and others.

I'm not hearing much about Drabek anymore, I really hope he's given a shot at the bullpen.  Give him a defined role (maybe 7th inning guy), focus on throwing strikes to 3-4 batters, maybe he turns into Wade Davis. 

About Romero, what do the analytics say?  Is it more mental vs physical?  I thought his stuff hadn't declined that much, and am still shocked he hasn't been able to at least claim a useful bullpen role.  How many former staff aces still in their physical prime can't even pitch garbage innings anymore?  When he and Lester both tanked, I thought Ricky was the safer bet to make it back, but was I ever wrong. 

John Northey, the question is not the quality of your 9th starter, it's the question of whoever Shields replaces in our rotation.  He arguably slots in as high as #1, depending on your impression of Stroman.  Nobody spends dollars on their 9th starter - honestly speaking, could anyone name one starter on any team slotted as 9th who makes more than the minimum?  

Romero  comes to mind as a counter-argument - perhaps he's our 9th - but he represents a bad contract - or bad luck - not a team recognizing the need to pay for that low level depth. 

About Romero, what do the analytics say?

His AAA FIPs the past two seasons have been 4.81 (114 IP) and 6.76 (38 IP). There is nothing hidden in his numbers to serve as a basis for optimism.

His 2014 took a Blassian turn: 42 BB, 28 K.

Maybe he'll get the Dontrelle Willis treatment and be given numerous chances, for reasons unfathomable, but I'd be willing to wager he's seen the last of a major league playing field.

Young Magpie has been dispatched to the RC to represent Da Box at the state of the franchise event. Look for a report from him in the next day or so.

Non attendees can follow along on bluejays.com or sportsnet.ca.

Expect the usual platitudes.

Who's in the best shape of his life, anyways?  John Gibbons?  Paul Beeston?  Youppi?

I guess I'm wondering about the arm strength, mechanics and consistency of delivery for Romero more than the results.  I've seen some great charts showing Stroman's Maddux like consistency with his release points, and also the impressive movement of his pitches.  I haven't seen anything documenting Romero's inability to be consistent, or declining pitch movement, or any other poor mechanical or physical factors, other than some attempted tweaks and minor injuries.  It's like he somehow just forgot how to pitch.  I know he had issues with lefties, but if that was the only problem he could at least be a ROOGY.

Looking fwd to Magpie's report! 

I'm not hearing much about Drabek anymore, I really hope he's given a shot at the bullpen.  Give him a defined role (maybe 7th inning guy), focus on throwing strikes to 3-4 batters, maybe he turns into Wade Davis.

Romero is done - not even an NRI for spring training -  and Drabek is done as a prospect.  He hasn't looked good since he was Phillies' property.  I think it was obvious how little value the Jays attached to him when he got promoted to the bigs and pitched all of 3 innings, before going down and being exposed on waivers.  he's a placeholder for the FO, and his numbers weren't good as a reliever in AAA.  I don't see him even breaking with the big league team, despite AA's love for retaining 'assets' .  He's no Jeffries or Davis - Todd Redmond is a longshot upside for the guy. 

For Shields, it depends on Sanchez.

It's one thing to bring a starter from the minor and throw him in the pen mid-season. It's another to start him in the pen. You're not only messing up his learning of secondary pitches, you're keeping the guy from increasing his inning count. 

There's probably enough candidates to fight over that 5th spot. With Shields there's nothing to fight for. There should be enough depth to hold until the trade deadline anyway and then there's no need to commit money beyond next year.

I'd rather find a top RHP to close some games.

Eh, I'd take Shields over Bhuerle, but not in addition to.

Can't wait for spring training.

Agree with jer.  John, you are missing the forest for the trees.  We all agree that using your top 5-6 starters is better than using you 7-12 starters.

Signing a pitcher who has 8 straight years of 200-plus innings is one of the lowest risk ways to ensure your top 5-6 pitchers do the starting rather than using your backend depth.

Having Buehrle and Dickey also helps enormously.  Add to that trio a "selection" of fine young arms such as Hutch, Stroman, Norris and Sanchez and well you are significantly boosting your odds of playing meaningful games in October. Which is, of course, the plan.

All of you that DON'T want to add one of the finest #2 starters in baseball are content to play the same old game of "almost" being good enough...been there, done that, DIDN'T buy the WS T-shirt.

Signing Shields works well for this team if A.A. bothers to make the effort. Mainly because you need to make your best effort the next two years because of Bautista's and Encarnacion's contracts. I doubt both get extended, but I could be wrong.
2015: Shields, Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison and Stroman, with Sanchez, Norris, Estrada, Jenkins and Redmond are #6-10. This is necessary because Buehrle might have big trade value if A.A. needs a piece (1B, 2B, Closer) midseason for the team.
2016: Shields, Dickey, Hutchison, Stroman and Sanchez, with Norris and Hoffman as #6-7. Dickey might be the trade piece this year's midseason trade piece.
2017: Shields, Hutchison, Stroman, Sanchez and Norris with Hoffman as #6. Shields could be the trade piece this midseason, stranger things than that have happened.
After 2017, Shields could drop in the rotation if still effective or, if necessary, be released paying out his contract.

State of the Franchise was absolutely nothing we didn`t know, with one exception: contract just signed with University of Guelph for the grass thingy.

I'm more looking at 'will Shields be worth the money'.  If you can get him on a 3 year deal - fantastic.  But a 5 year at $20 mil per will tie the Jays hands at some point.

Now, looking a bit deeper... I said 'if you get a 110+ ERA+ and 180+ IP' ... Shields has done that 3 of the past 4 years and the year he missed was due to a 109 ERA+.  His BB/9 was his best since 2008 at 1.7 last year, his K/9 though was his lowest since 2009 while his HR/9 was his 2nd best ever.  Is that worth $20 mil a year?  Maybe, but it seems he cannot get that 5 year $100 mil deal he wanted and spring is very, very close.

If I was in AA's shoes I'd call Shields up and see what it would take.  4/$80 I could probably go to Rogers and fight for.  5/$100 would be hard though.  I really hate signing pitchers beyond 3 years as the variables are so big with them.  At this point he is probably the best upgrade possible although it is possible the rotation would be stronger without if it costs Sanchez/Norris a shot at the rotation this year.  We'll see what happens.

The Jays have paid Mark Buehrle basically $18.5 MM per year, over two years, for a 12.5-10 record (average over two years) with a 3.75 ERA over 202.8 IP. So paying a Starter Big Bucks isn't new, so paying Shields similar monies is not unreasonable. So as long as Shields pitches 202.8 innings over 32.5 starts with a record similar to 12.5-10 and a 3.75 ERA per year, he'll be worth his money.

Agreed on those terms for Shields John. The last prediction I saw on Fangraphs had Shields for 4 years and 75 million dollars, although there was an interesting article arguing for him to do a one-year deal and try to maximize his earnings next season - it seemd to work for Santanna.

I love that gibby asked for Shields at the state of the union. at least someone is talking honestly in the FO. 1

"John, in 2011, 2012 AND 2013 we used 12 starting pitchers"

and if that happens again, then we will be uncompetitive again like those years.