I just read AJ Cassavell's piece, in which he ranked all the divisions. The AL East was #2 in the piece, but I do not know if that meant he thought it was the 2nd strongest division. He said that each of the 5 teams could finish 1st or last.
So what does he mean? I do not know. Well you cannot write a piece about ranking the 6 divisions and omit one. His conclusion " up for grabs".

There is still a lot of movement left for this off season.

I am quite sure that Reyes will perform better for any other team. He is very talented, but he cannot produce as much with the health issues the RC will cause. Someone will want him. Over here he is a burden on the payroll, especially with bad health being a certainty IMO.

The big problem with trading Reyes is who do you replace him with?  He is a top 5 SS thanks to his offense and getting that replaced would not be easy.  Anyone the Jays get will be punished by the turf and there aren't any real SS close to the majors unless you count Goins and I sure wouldn't want him playing everyday with that noodle bat despite the amazing defense.

John, you are right about it being impossible to replace him, offensively. Good Avg & high SB numbers. I can easily see him getting only 400 ABs each season due to injury or wear and tear leading to injury. I know that is a dismal statement. He could be a monster if healthy, 60 SBs in a couple of seasons and more BBs than SOs in some seasons.
I think his 610 ABs last season is the best we will get, I do not see it being repeated.
So then his value is in trading him IMO. There are ways to let other teams know he is available. We do not have to accept anything we do not like, and if traded we figure out a way to replace the talent. Most likely with more than one player.

He definitely becomes the best player in the deal.

The largest problem who do you replace Reyes as a lead off hitter and who can play shortstop to cover his shortfall.
Do you plan to bring back Escobar, in his place and his baggage.
You have a quality lead off man, and for some games, he should DH when you are playing at RC, that is called managing your team. Than play Itzuris at short for that time period.
The commentary does not make sense, just like the claims of the budget, this is mid December, trading for 1 Reliever with Navarro, and than signing another increases your budget to 130 million dollars max.
The rest of the garbage lay at Rogers Management for not spending the final dollars for a winner.
Have stated repeatedly Rogers budget of 150 million USD is covered 67% by US National Media Right & Licensing Fees, and the NET Revenue Sharing of 31% of all teams put into a basket and is returned as a value equal to 30% IN USD. So Rogers shortfall in Cdn a year if not hedged would be approx 12% of 50 Million Dollars USD. Just remember Rogers cooks their Media payments( keeping artificially low) so that they do not have to share more dollars with other teams. Forbes had an article on profits for the last five years of the Jays, no they are not making 15% return on their revenue, but their Media Division is making the difference of 20 million to 40 million dollars annually that is the underpay for the Regional Tv rights.
Maybe if they spent the monies, they would greater participation of the TO / Canadian fans and increase ancillary revenue streams.

I think you keep Reyes for one more season to allow Pompey to mature into the leadoff hitter. Next off-season is the one to trade Reyes. Fingers crossed he has a semi-healthy year, produces and we make it to the playoffs. That way, his value will still be high.

Given the current Jays situation, with AA on the hot seat trying to get to the playoffs before Rogers hires a replacement for Beeston, I cannot imagine AA taking a risk of downgrading at SS.  If he can get a stud who he feels safe about at SS then pull the trigger and deal Reyes, but otherwise it would be a mistake.  If the Jays fall out of the race early though then I could easily see Reyes (and Buehrle and others) on the block.

Roger's claims losses from the Blue Jays in excess of $20.0 MM (from PTS). Jonah Kerri said 29 MLB Teams made money, including Tampa Bay with it's nonexistent Attendance. They are supposed to receive around $150.0 MM from TV revenues alone. (I'd like to find the source of that.)

Melky signs with the Chi Sox. 3 years. The White Sox look to be a pretty well run team these days. (In general, not bc of this particular deal)

Given that Rogers can pay the Jays 10 cents for TV rights they can
easily claim losses.  Remember that Beeston years ago “I can turn a $4
million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting
firm to agree with me.”   So never take any claims of profits or losses
seriously.

Appears Melky got $45 mil over 3 years from the ChiSox.  They lose their 3rd round pick (1st round protected, already lost pick #2), Jays get a sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2.  Probably good for the Jays that he didn't end up in Baltimore, would've been better in the NL but AL Central isn't bad.

To have kept him would you have given him that deal?  Or $50+ over 3 or a 4 year $60 mil deal?  I wouldn't, but I see him as a 2 WAR player mostly who should be at DH and the Jays don't really need that.  If he could be a plus defender in LF he would be worth it, but he isn't anymore.

Considering Rogers owns basically every avenue the Jays have to make revenue (TV, Radio, Stadium) as well as the team, they can basically claim whatever profit or loss they want.

You put the Jays TV rights out to bid between Rogers and Bell and they'd make a killing on them. Obviously Rogers isn't going to do that and they can 'pay' the Jays a small percentage of what they are actually worth and then claim the Jays lose money.

So Melky signs for the same money they're paying Donaldson and Encarnacion. I know who I'd rather have.

So A.A. has basically 10 days to get everything done, because after Christmas the other Teams' Rosters are mostly set. All that is left at that point is a Free Agent Market picked mostly clean.

Gibbons made a comment earlier this year that he wasn't going to DH Cabrera because Melky hated not being in the field and lost his focus when DH'ing. It will be interesting see how this plays out over the next 3 years...

There will still be FA's and trades available in January.

While I was initially shocked for how little Melky signed, and for the Jays' apparent lack of desire to match that measly amount, I wonder if this isn't a continuation of a pretty thorough cleaning out of the team's leadership/makeup.

Cabrera signs for 3/$42m. I think it's just a case of the Jays believing that they can get better value and less risk from a different player (Saunders).

The Jays look to me like a good-but-flawed team that might be strong enough to win the division. I would still like to see them make further moves that would elevate them to the status of clear favourite to win the division, but I've learned to temper my expectations in this regard.

i'm surprised the jays didn't sign melky and flip saunders for relief help at this price, tbh.

he is a much better fit in the 2-hole than martin, i think.

i question how much of saunders defensive "value" will translate from safeco to skydome where there isn't much to do (especially with someone like pompey in CF), and melky's arm plays well.

There has been much discussion about relievers and it appears there may be a couple of trades in the offing and no way of predicting who Jays may acquire. Last week AA did reveal that he wants to sign a FA 2b. Of those available, who might you suggest. I know Toritani is the flavor of the week but who else? I don't think we will see a star, but who would be adequate...better than what we have now. I tend to think Lowrie is looking for longer term than we will offer while Asdrubal is far from a budget acquisition. Who else? Thoughts?

Devon Travis would be perfectly fine if he started the season with the club.  I imagine that he probably will spend April proving that he can hit triple A pitching this year as well as he handled double A pitching the second half of last year.  Izturis can hold the fort, with Goins as plan B.  It's fine if they add someone like Toritani, but committing to a 3 year contract for someone like Lowrie doesn't make sense.

I like what I've read about Travis and am hopeful that he can take over as the Jays' starting second baseman in 2015, providing average or better ML performance.

I would not go so far as to assume that he will be "perfectly fine" in that role, his Steamer projection notwithstanding. I feel similarly about Pompey, another fine prospect.

We saw what happened with JBJ, Bogaerts and Middlebrooks last year. Development takes time. Not every promising prospect pans out. Some do, but need a year or two or three to get untracked.

I too am hopeful for Travis but feel he might benefit from some AAA time and that Izturis is too much of a gamble coming off injury. Macier is better suited to a utility role anyway imo. So, I think a stop gap is a good idea. Maybe Toritani at 3 years is too much term? Who else then?

would either of Ramon Santiago (.342 OBP in 2014) or Daniel Descalso(.333 OBP in 2014) be a temporary upgrade? Mind you, I would only offer a one year contract if at all.

Jays still need a SP if they are to keep Sanchez in the pen (or starting in AAA) this year as AA suggested. I'm hoping and expecting that their other young guys are kept as plans B, C and D, so help in some form would need to be brought in.

Given how wary teams are of Shields' mileage thus far, perhaps he could be had on just a 3-year deal? He had another strong year last season although faltered in the playoffs. BOS or NYY could also jump on him for 3-year contract I'm sure, but I'll hope the Jays can offer similar cash and Shields would prefer Toronto to his alternatives.

Would Shields at 3-years, $50M be worth the gamble that his arm doesn't fall apart? (Ignoring the fact that we don't know if Rogers would allow any budget increase as a Christmas gift to fans, or if Shields and his agent would scoff at such an offer -- I'm hoping AA is waiting out for his expectations to come down).

And if not Shields, who else could the Jays look at outside the organization for a rotation spot through FA or trade? (wouldn't bother getting hopes up for Scherzer)

Who else [out of Toritani, Travis, Santiago, Descalso, Beckham] then?

A list of 2Bs:
Adam Rosales
Mark Ellis
Jed Lowrie
Stephen Drew
Asdrubal Cabrera
Donnie Murphy
Josh Wilson
Rickie Weeks
Brandon Hicks
Rafael Furcal
Emilio Bonifacio

I think the Jays are looking for a starting 2B ahead of an SS who can start at 2B as Goins and Izturis can cover SS. Can Goins pick up some hitting performance from JB21 and Donaldson ?

I'd love to help out where possible.

I like Stephen Drew. After what happened to him last year it would not suprise me if he were looking at only a 1 yr term to better establish his value. I would not be at all surprised if he has a strong showing this yr. Those two points make him the best 2B target for the Jays IMO.

Well Melky goes for term and dollars less than anticipated or what he hoped to get on the open market. But quite close to what the rumors of the Blue Jays original offer to him was.

Now is the team better with Saunders/Smoak/Estrada or Melky/Lind/Happ? That is from a overall standpoint, offence and defence, ignoring intangibles such as leadership, clubhouse drama etc.

Yes I took the liberty of using the Lind trade as having a domino effect on the other two.

One difference between the groups of course is salary savings, to the tune of almost 20 million.

Breakdown: 7 for Happ, 7.5 for Lind, 14 for Melky = 28.5  //  1 for Smoak, 4.7 for Estrada, 2.9 for Saunders = 8.6  [latter two projected arb salaries on MLBTR]

Is the team better? Much depends on the ability of Saunders and Smoak to reach levels of performance not yet achieved. The pair should provide better defence easily enough but if neither have much better seasons with the bat than in their past, then hopefully the cost savings becomes a valuable enough resource to make up the difference rather than being a huge advantage. Estrada should be able to take Happ's place in value and hopefully best it, I am expecting.

Drew's agent is Scott Boras. Need I say more?

The Jays already have replacement value a 2B.

I still miss Lind's bat and I don't hold much trust in this bullpen to protect leads.
We shall see.

Ken Rosenthal reported this morning that the Nats are shopping both Jordan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond in a package together with the thought of getting younger, more controllable players. The combined earnings of the 2 are 27.5 million for this season. If traded, they would target Max Scherzer in the FA market.

They would likely seem to be 1 year rentals as they both head into Free Agency. They have shopped the 2 to Seattle for their pitching prospect stud Walker and Brad Miller.

These two would be a good fit for the Jays. Zimmerman a talented, front of the line pitcher and Desmond could fill in at 2B, of course keeping him at SS and moving Reyes to 2B would be ideal.

A package centered around 4 controllable years and I'm in.

Hrm....
Ian Desmond: 103 OPS+ lifetime, 3.4+ bWAR each of the past 3 years with positive defensive stats.  $11 mil this year then a free agent
Jordan Zimmerman: 120 ERA+ lifetime, 3.24 ERA vs 3.31 FIP so not too much pure defensive help.

Would they be interested in Reyes to give them a solid SS for a few years (moving to grass would help) plus a prospect or two (or three)?  Both Desmond & Zimmerman would get draft picks if healthy in 2015 or the Jays might resign one or both.  It would be a one year hit on payroll but if Washington is interested in Reyes to keep their SS position competitive for the long term then this could work nicely as Desmond is one of the few SS that wouldn't be a downgrade from Reyes (and vice versa). 

The big question is would you give up, say, Sanchez or Norris in a deal?  Desmond & Zimmerman would help make the Jays favorites, but boy would it be scary to lose a good young arm for just one year out of each of those guys.  As far as payroll goes, this would land into the special category I'd suspect where Beeston would argue with Rogers that it is worth it.

To get those two, you would be saying goodbye to Norris and Sanchez and would probably need a good hitting prospect with Travis probably not being enough. Can't see the jays giving up a great deal of young talent to get two rental players that may or may not be extended. They would probably like Donaldson in exchange but would make zero sense for Toronto.

 Even just Zimmermann may be outside realm of possibility. Perhaps Fister would come cheaper?

Still some big exciting moves to be made all over baseball.

There should also be many minor moves where excess position players move. Boston & Dodgers have extra outfielders.

zimmerman and desmond eoukd make ys world series favorites.

i'd cough up sanchez and norris for that.

yikes sorry for those typos.

[QUOTE]Now is the team better with Saunders/Smoak/Estrada or Melky/Lind/Happ? That is from a overall standpoint, offence and defence, ignoring intangibles such as leadership, clubhouse drama etc.[/QUOTE]

not quite the correct comparison.

melky/lind/happ combine to make $28.5m.

saunders/smoak/estrada combine to make $8.5m.

martin/donaldson/saunders/smoak/estrada combine to make $29.5m (and that's using martin's AAV of $16.5m not his actual salary of only $7.0m thus year).

Hey, JB21, you bat left or right?  Think I might have a slot for you somewhere.

Yankees sign Headley for the heady sum of 4/52m.

Question: would the Jays have been better off signing Headley (say, for 4/54 - 4/56), moving Lawrie to second base, and keeping Barreto, Graveman and Nolin (possibly as trade chips for a starting pitcher or some other piece)?

I like the Donaldson trade, but it's an interesting question. I'm a bit concerned that the Jays' off-season is now largely over and that the team is an injury or two away from falling off the pace (because of lack of depth).

Stoeten saying that Jays one of 3 finalist for Toritani...the other being SD Padres and his present club Hanshin TIgers.....best part of report is that decision to be made this week, so if it's not TO, AA can move on to the next candidate.

Nah.  Donaldson is much better than Headley.  Steamer has 2015 showing Donaldson at 5.6 WAR, Headley 3.9, and Lawrie 3.8.  So Headley & Lawrie = 7.7 thus the Jays need 2.1 out of 2B to break even and Devon Travis is projected as a 2.3 WAR player. 

So Donaldson & Travis = cheap (could be under $5 mil total) and have 4 & 6-7 years of control left.
Headley & Lawrie = expensive ($13 per for Headley, $1.8 est for Lawrie) with 4 years and 3 years of control.

Lawrie is entering his age 25 season, Headley his age 31 season.  Donaldson his age 29 season, Travis his age 24 season. 

In every respect I can think of the Jays win - younger, more years of control, less cost, best overall player.  Plus, of course, to get Headley the Jays would've had to beat the Yankee offer, probably by adding a 5th year.

I tend to agree, but your analysis leaves out Barreto, Graveman and Nolin's value in 2015 and beyond, either as Blue Jays or trade chips.

And Donaldson's price tag is going to rise rapidly.

Also, the jury is still very much out on Travis. He's by no means a slam dunk +2 WAR player in 2015.

Lastly, the Jays arguably sold low on Lawrie. He could well have a breakout year in 2015 (again, no guarantee, but the A's garnered some upside in the trade).

Toritani would be interesting.  He is a pure free agent, so no posting fee.  Very durable (1,444 consecutive games played) at SS without missing an inning.  Patient at the plate with a good OBP, good range but a 'meh' arm from how it reads.  If signed he'd be asking for a 162 game commitment from the Jays (ie: he plays everyday).  Could a Reyes trade be on the side, if Toritani signs?  I could imagine it and that would free up tons of cash long term for the Jays too.  Better defense, similar OBP but not as much speed or power.

According to Japanese sources. Toritani would play 2b for Jays. But it would be good to have another competent ss on the roster in case Reyes goes down. I don't see any way he is being traded at the present time. Stranger things have happened, however.

True enough greenfrog - I did go a bit myopic there just looking at 2015 and shortly after without factoring in the prospects.  Donaldson's price tag will rise but will it be $52 mil over the next 4 years?  Only if he produces and in that case I suspect the Jays can live with it.  There is something to be said for having the ability to cut bait if he gets hurt or drops in quality (Headley will make his bucks even if he hits 200). 

Graveman and Nolin most agree will not be major factors going forward baring a surprise - most likely going to be middle relievers/spot starters thus not a ton of value.  Barreto is the wild card - if he develops this could look like a very bad trade in 10 years.

So for AA & the Jays I think this is ideal as 2015 is critical if AA wants to keep his job - another non-playoff appearance could be the end for him unless the team really pushes it to the limit (ie: 90+ wins but just misses).  All moves he makes will have 2015 as #1 and everything else secondary I suspect.

"....2015 is critical if AA wants to keep his job...."

Yes, it's critical for AA, but really it's critical for everyone: the fans, the owners, the players....   Everyone is tired of waiting 22 years since the last playoff appearance.  Failure in 2015 will breed more cynicism and disillusion among the fans -- who have been expressing a ton of impatience for years -- which in turn will damage the team's ticket revenue and television revenue, which could in turn discourage future investment by the owners (or at least could give them an excuse to cut back).  And failure will also damage the team's long-term credibility and its ability to attract good talent in the future -- not just free agents, but managers and coaches and GMs too.  So failure in 2015 could turn the team into an increasingly chronic failure (if it's not already). Success is overdue. Get it done, or suffer the consequences. 

Is there any disadvantage to this "win now" urgency?  Only if the GM is mortgaging the future.  Only if he's so desperate that he's accepting very expensive long-term albatross contracts, and if he is selling the farm system cheap and emptying the prospect shelves.  But I don't really think he is doing this.  Most of the prospects that he has traded (Gose, Nolin, Graveman) were not seen as premium prospects.  (Baretto is the only obvious exception -- and possibly Lawrie, although the Jays clearly upgraded at 3B and Donaldson is still only 29.)  The farm system remains in relatively good shape.  And the payroll remains flexible after 2015.  So he's not sacrificing too much of the future to boost the Jays chances in 2015. 

Still, the urgency has to be there, and I think it is.

I, unfortunately, bat right Dewey.

There goes my shot at the bigs, ugh.

I've mentioned before how if AA went nuts there are lots of ways to do it - trade for Votto, sign a major pitching free agent to a 7+ year deal, do an Expos early 2000's deal where all prospects go for one year guys, etc.

Luckily AA seems to be planning on being here awhile thus doesn't want to handcuff himself.  Thus the small number of prospects being traded this winter.  He also seems to have learned a bit from the Mets/Marlins trades and seeing how some of those players developed and would've been useful now, but also how none of them would've pushed the Jays further to date while the team might have had to suffer last place finishes the past 2 years otherwise (with drops in attendance, TV, etc.). 

So many variables to factor in, but as fans we can focus on whatever we want to :)   Right now 2B and CF are the biggest question marks and both have kids ready to step in potentially while it seems AA is after a Japanese free agent to cover 2B for the time being.  1B is also an issue, but I wouldn't be shocked to see AA find someone 1/2 decent as late as mid-March.  The pen is an issue but, again, it can be a last minute filler slot as relievers are a nightmare to predict thus making it best to have a lot of guys who have live arms rather than put all your eggs into one closer's basket.

I'm hopeful for 2015.  Guess we'll see soon enough.

As far as 1b is concerned, I think that playing in Rogers Centre and other AL East parks instead of Seattle, there is a reasonable change Smoak will hit 30 HR. He is also far better defensively than Lind.

if toritani can be a slick fielding .350obp 2B, that would be a pretty sweet addition.

It's being reported that the TO and SD offers are likely one year plus option. If that the case, I would up offer to 2 years as Izturis is done after 2015 so Toritani would still have a spot even if Travis makes it at 2b.

"..... there is a reasonable chance Smoak will hit 30 HR...."

I agree that Smoak will hit more HRs in Toronto than in Seattle, and I trust that the Jays scouts have seen something that they like in him.  (Perhaps they just see his 2013 season, which was pretty good, and they hope that he might rebound next season to the level of his 2013 performance.)   But I don't care how many HRs he will hit in Toronto if his OBP remains as dismal as it was in 2014 (and in 2012, for that matter).  His OBP last season was .275, which would make him a complete sinkhole in the Jays lineup if he remains at that level.   Lind, by contrast, had an OBP of .381 last season.  If the Jays lose 100 points of OBP in one lineup position, the newcomer really would have to hit a huge number of HRs to make up for that, and I don't think Smoak has enough power to compensate for an OBP of such dreadfulness.  (His career SLG is just .380.)

Now, even if you take the park factors into consideration, as wRC+ does, Smoak still looks bad in comparison to Lind over the past two seasons.  Smoak's wRC+ numbers over the past two seasons are 77 and 111.   Lind's numbers by the same measuring stick are 141 and 131.   A big difference.

If you want to be a little more optimistic, you can accept Steamer's projections, which have Smoak at 106 next season, while Lind is projected at 118.  That would reduce the gap somewhat.  But that includes the park factors, so you can't eliminate the gap by adding a further adjustment for his move from Seattle to Toronto.

If the Jays are really counting on Smoak to replace Lind's production, I think that's a mistake.  I hope they find another 1B to help bridge the gap.  Smoak's defence, by itself, doesn't replace the decline in production from Lind's departure, in my view.

lowrie signs for 3x$8 plus an option.

pretty affordable.

So many variables to factor in, but as fans we can focus on whatever we want to :)  

A source comments on Josh Donaldson's good batting timing, hitting HR off fastball and curveball, on being able and when to pause the stride to swing the bat. If ESPN's video of how JB19 (err JB21...JB19) arise from no name to superstar can also applied on Goins, Goins can pick up respectively from JB and Donaldson, that are start slow and early, pause and watch.

You do have to take into consideration that Lind is probably not playing 6 full months without going on the DL.

I hope they find another 1B to help bridge the gap.

Chris Colabello is a bridge ? Is [move and pause] from Donaldson helpful to Colabella and Goins ?

Lowrie's free-agent contract may have been relatively affordable, but apparently he wants to play SS and the Astros have promised him the SS job, whereas the Jays would have only been able to use him at 2B.

Stoeten's analysis on Lowrie, for what it's worth:  "...he’s had a tough time staying on the field, didn’t hit much in 2014, had a BABIP-driven good year at the plate in 2013, and without the BABIP was good in 2012, but with an ISO nearly double of what it was this year (though Oakland’s park surely factored into that)."

I did say the Jays should have signed Lowrie but I read that he lives in Houston in the off-season so the Jays had almost no shot, unless they emptied their wallet.

"....You do have to take into consideration that Lind is probably not playing 6 full months without going on the DL...."

That's a fair point, especially since Smoak is three years younger.  On the other hand, Smoak hasn't been completely injury-free either.  Over the past 4 years, Lind and Smoak have played in a nearly identical number of major-league games.  (Of course, some of Smoak's missing games were the result of demotion, rather than injury.)

Then to be completely fair part of Lind's time missed in 2012 (age 28) was a demotion. As a silver lining, it gave us a chance to showcase Yan Gomes.

Does anyone want to comment on the tricky business of projecting the hitting of Japanese players when they reach the majors?  There seems to be no simple formula, but I tend to think that Toritani would definitely do better than Kawasaki, and maybe as well as Nori Aoki (or maybe even better).  One such projection system is run by Clay Davenport.  He seems to be projecting that Toritani could post an OBP of .378 and an OPS of .758 in the majors.  That seems quite optimistic -- it would put Toritani ahead of Aoki, for example.  And for a 2B, it would be an excellent hitting performance.  So perhaps it's unrealistic.  Anyway here's the projection, at the bottom of this page:
  
http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/TORITANI19810626A.shtml

If Toritani can do that then I say sign him to a 3 year deal if that is what it takes.  A 375+ OBP would be sweeeeet out of 2B especially given he has a rep as a very solid defensive player who never gets hurt.  Not much speed, not much power, but this team has power to spare and as long as he isn't a Molina for speed that OBP would result in many runs scoring.

Does anyone want to comment on the tricky business of projecting the hitting of Japanese players when they reach the majors?

My rough rule of thumb has always been to expect a player to keep most if not all of his BAVG and OBP, but to lose as much as half of his home-run power. It's my Hideki Matsui formula! Shemp played 1268 games in Japan, 1236 in the majors. In Japan he hit 332 HRs, in the majors he hit 175. (His slash lines were .304/.416/.582 at home, .280/.360/.462 over here; of course his time in North America represents very little of his peak and all of his decline.)

But most Japanese hitters are going to come to North America just as they're leaving their prime years. That's always going to be a factor. And of course different individuals are simply going to handle the adjustment differently, and at a different pace. It's an enormous adjustment, both on and off the field. Some make it instantly, some take a while, some never do. I thought this past year was when Kawasaki made the adjustment and was once more the player he had been in Japan (except by then he was 33 years old, and no longer that player anymore.) Ichiro Suzuki was a very unusual case - while his game may have been better suited to Japan, in many ways his personality and temperament was better suited to North America. As I've said before, if Suzuki had come over here at age 20, Pete Rose would be in his rear view mirror, fading into the distance.

making a projection even tougher is that MLB offense has dipped in a big way the past couple of years.

league average was somewhere around .715ops last year.

if the guy can post even near a .350obp and .700ops, then if he can give plus defense at 2B he becomes a valuable player. like 3war valuable.

Chris Colabello is a bridge ?

Yeah, a bridge to nowhere. He is meat for AAA, nothing more. Valencia already has the platoon gig with Smoak, or whatever lefty the team upgrades to.

He seems to be projecting that Toritani could post an OBP of .378 and an OPS of .758 in the majors.

I'm not sure I am understanding the presentation of the data for Toritani. I don't see lines for 2015 but do see lines labelled "minors" (like the one with the .378 OBP).

By contrast, the Blue Jay section does show lines for 2015.

But the final table on that page is headed: "projected" for "2015." It appears that each of his recent Japanese seasons has its own projection of how each season would translate to a MLB equivalent (age-adjusted) in 2015.

Toritani's actual OBP in 2014 was over .400. So the lower OBP for that same season (.378) is not his actual number but his projected number if the 2014 OBP was translated to the majors.

If your understanding is correct -- and I'm not arguing that it isn't -- I'd be happy with even the worst of those projections.

I want the Jays to sign Toritani just so I can hear Buck and Tabby try to (trippingly) say "Toritani turns two!" on a regular basis.

The Jays data is interesting for its projections of some Jays minor leaguers if they were promoted to the majors in 2015... Avg/OBP/Slg
Dalton Pompey: 256/337/423
Anthony Alford: 224/304/428
Kevin Pillar: 263/300/413
DJ Davis: 210/269/352
Ryan Goins: 233/280/342
AJ Jimenez: 236/280/343

Ex Jays...
Franklin Barreto: 241/287/425
Anthony Gose: 239/309/351

Many others I could've checked, but those caught my eye, especially Alford's projection as being better than Pillars for 2015 (!!!)

Oh, for comparison (using Davenport)....
CF...

• Dalton Pompey: 256/337/423
• Kevin Pillar: 263/300/413
• Anthony Gose: 239/309/351
• Colby Rasmus: 228/296/436

LF...

• Melky Cabrera: 317/368/473 288 EqA
  
• Michael Saunders: 254/332/420 275 EqA (EqA to help adjust for the big park difference)

CA...

• Dionner Navarro: 280/332/427 263 EqA
  
• Russell Martin: 227/335/349 264 EqA
• JP Arencibia: 201/245/399 221 EqA
• Yeah, agreed, that doesn't make sense for Martin

3B...

• Brett Lawrie: 267/330/437 264 EqA
• Josh Donaldson: 281/355/475 297 EqA

Interesting stuff.  Different projection systems will have different results I'm sure.  The Martin one though is very odd.

"not quite the correct comparison.

melky/lind/happ combine to make $28.5m.

saunders/smoak/estrada combine to make $8.5m."


Yes I deliberately left out the dollars for the purposes of the comparison. Just looking for follow members thoughts on differences between the 2 group of players strictly on potential production on offence and defence.

I believe we traded offence for defence and yes there are potential savings that could go towards filling on holes on the roster.

In 2010 before joining the Twins, Nishioka had a .346/.423/.482 slash line as a 25 year old in the Japanese League. In 1+ years with the Twins he slashed .215/.267/.236. A good spot to temper enthusiasm. I think predictions of a .360 or .378 obp are excessively enthusiastic. Among qualified 2b last year, only Cano and Altuve had a .360 or above obp.

And Altuve had to hit .341 to do that. I'd be utterly shocked if we saw a .330 OBP out of our second baseman.

Good point ComebyDeanChance.  The fact such a young player came from Japan but only got a posting value of $5 mil and a 3 year deal at $9 mil says a lot about how ML teams viewed him as that is what I'd expect most first round players in a draft to be getting if it was an open market rather than a salary capped one.  Thus someone who was viewed as a prospect but not a 'woohoo' guy despite that line in Japan.  One wonders if the broken bone he suffered just a week into his ML career had any lasting effect on him.  He only played parts of 2 seasons in the majors before asking to be sent back to Japan (thus saving the Twins $3 mil so he 'only' cost $11 mil).

This is where scouting becomes very important.  Judging if a player is the next Nishioka or the next Ichiro is a tough thing to do.  Hopefully the Jays read the player correctly and he is as good as the Japan-ML translations suggest and the Jays get him.  Guess we'll know soon enough.

On the ex-Jays watch, Alex Rios has signed for 1 year $11 mil with the Royals.  A bit of a surprise given he had just a 99 OPS+ last year and a 104 the year before and now is entering his age 34 season.  His bWAR is 0.9 for 2014, 2.0 in 2013, 4.8 in 2012, and -1.9 in 2011.  IE: lord knows what you'll get with him.

A potential reliever could be from Atlanta who just designated Anthony Varvaro for assignment.  Varvaro had 8.2 K/9 2.1 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 last year in 54 2/3 IP and lifetime has 7.4-3.3-0.8 numbers translating into a 3.73 FIP.  Not an amazing reliever but certainly one worth looking at and isn't into arbitration yet either (after 2015 he will be).  Heck, I'd claim him just to see if he can keep improving at that low of a cost.

I see China Fan has taken my comments on Davenport translations over at Stoeten's site and expanded on them.

As far as their veracity it's hard to say. I do know that Davenport was an early and strong advocate of signing Jose Abreu given his projections, and many were skeptical of Abreu being that good. His projections on Yoenis Cespedes have been even more accurate.

The point about Hiroyuki Nakajima is well taken, he signed for 2 years and 6.5 million dollars with the Athletics and was an epic fail. His MLE is very similar to that of Toritani.

I will say though that Akinori Iwamura who played second for Tampa from 2007-2009 was just the opposite. He was very successful, posting roughly a .750 OPS for Tampa before blowing out his ACL on a double play pivot, his MLE numbers, which are similar to Toritani's, proved to be quite accurate.

I think the biggest obstacle these imports from Japan face is the cultural impact of adapting to North America and that's hard to estimate with each different individual.

The Davenports seem to be quite reasonable for Muni Kawasaki as they have his EQA being quite a bit lower than Toritani's and very close to what he was projected to do in North America.

http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/KAWASAKI00000000B.shtml

Whoops I'm getting my Japanese infielders mixed up. Nishioka struggled with the Twins, Nakajima had his troubles with Oakland.

Given their lack of recent success , I'd say their is a bias against Japanese infielders that I'm sure would be reflected in salary considerations given to a player like Toritani.

Hiroyuki Nakajima sure was a flop - hasn't reached the majors yet after 2 years in AA/AAA.  267/326/356 in the minors (PCL) won't impress anyone.  In Japan he was a 302/371/472 hitter which Davenport has in the 285 / 350 / 420 range (his final 3 years in Japan).

It is hard to guess with these guys.  That is why scouts are critical.

Wildrose, sorry, didn't realize you were also on this site, and I thought the Davenport projections would add some interesting fuel to our debates, so I "borrowed" the link from your comments on Stoeten's site.....   Thanks for digging them up from their original location.

After being one of the first to jump on the Toritani bandwagon, I'm now getting the ominous feeling that our hopes will be dashed, as usual.  There are reports (unconfirmed) that San Diego is chasing Toritani and is offering him the SS job, which presumably would be much more attractive to him.  And being Japanese, he'd probably prefer to play in California, a much closer flight to his homeland. 

For me, the great advantage of Toritani (if his defence is solid) is his high OBP rate.  The Jays have plenty of hitters with power.  What they need are hitters who can get on base, to set the table for the big thumpers.  Toritani, hitting 9th, could get on base for Bautista and Martin and Encarnacion.  It would really help to lengthen the lineup, to eliminate the holes and make it much harder for opposing pitchers to find a weakness -- especially if Pompey can develop his OBP skills too.  Then there would be balance in the entire lineup, an ideal combination of contact hitters, power hitters, and hitters with a great eye who can work the count and get on base.  Of course this presumes that the Jays can sign Toritani, and it presumes that his Japanese numbers can translate to a high OBP in the majors -- both of which are far from certain.  But if it happens, it would certainly appear that Anthopoulos had a plan all along.

FWIW, I doubt that Toritani's offensive projection for 2015 is any better than Travis', probably a slightly higher OBP and a lower slugging pct.  That still makes him a valuable player to play second base prior to Travis' arrival and to back up the middle infield afterward.  It looks to me like he would be a capable defensive shortstop. 

Actually, on sober second thought, I think that Toritanti's projection is not as good as Travis'.  He will be 34 years old in June.  He has hit for a higher batting average at age 32-33 than his career average in Japan.  That is not likely to continue.  Aoki came to MLB at age 30.  Through age 29, he had posted a .329/.402/.450 line in the JPCL.  Toritani had posted a .285/.372/.412 line through age 33 in the JPCL.  Aoki was one of the relatively successful transfers and has gone .287/.353/.387 in his first 3 years.  Subjectively, .260/.325/.360 is about what I would expect from Toritani.  That's about the mid-point between Aoki and Kawasaki. 

A.A. easily gets focused when going after someone, sometimes to the exclusion of all else. Unless he has someone keeping him abreast of happening, it could get awkward. It's also possible he doesn't trust anyone else to help that much. That could be troubling. He just might be missing some of what is happening. At least he had better be or this is a disaster unfolding.

He has a bad habit of going after players he liked in the past and tried to acquire before, Cueto and Chapman are two that come to mind. I might be wrong, but it cannot be hard to acquire good Relievers, you just have to make the decision to do so. I suspect people will disagree, but I believe that Dioner Navarro is a fifth-wheel on this team. He won't get enough at bats without stealing the them from someone who might need them more, possibly Reyes and Bautista. Dave Stewart stuck his foot in his mouth with his comments about Navarro and Aviles - strict MLB no-no. It is apparent to all he's interested in those Catchers. Aviles will be expensive as he's someone else's starting Catcher. The alternative works just as well, Navarro's much cheaper. Trade Navarro to him for a very good Reliever (I think he has three). It should be just that simple.

If A.A. can sign Maicer Izturis to a 3 year +1 contract worth $3.0 MM each year to be our 2B, surely to sign Takashi Toritani to 3 years, $12.0 MM is not extreme.

Brandon Morrow lands in San Diego, the home of ex-Jays looking for pillow contracts.

i'd be very wary of any travis projection at this point. he was only a good, not great, hitter in AA at age 23.

let's see if i can cobble together some three year splits from the japanese leagues...

T.Toritani

JPN (30-33): 1911pa, 14.9bb%, 12.3k%, .118iso, .286/.394/.404/.798

Nori Aoki

JPN (27-29): 1934pa, 9.8bb%, 9.4k%, .120iso, .318/.400/.438/.838
MLB (30-32): 1811pa, 7.8bb%, 18.0k%, .100iso, .287/.353/.387.741

T.Nishioka

JPN (23-25): 1745pa, 10.4bb%, 13.8k%, .154iso, .306/.384/.460/.844
MLB (26-27): 254pa, 6.3bb%, 17.3k%, .021iso, .215/.267/.236/.503

M.Kawasaki

JPN (28-30): 1957pa, 6.3bb%, 13.3k%, .080iso, .281/.334/.361/.695
MLB (31-33): 678pa, 9.2bb%, 15.8k%, .049iso, .235/.315/.284/.599

H.Nakajima

JPN (27-29): 1779pa, 8.3bb%, 15.0k%, .137iso, .307/.373/.464/.837
AAA (30-31): 429pa, 6.3bb%, 21.7k%, .080iso, .268/.319/.348/.667



not the most encouraging list. note that guys like iwamura, fukudome, and k.matsui absolutely crushed the japanese leagues and were only mediocre mlb hitters.

BUT, one definite positive to look at is Toritani's great BB rate. especially that it's not just higher than hisnK rate bu MUCH higher. that is usually the most projectible and sustainable of all the numbers through minor league so i imagine its the same for the japanese leagues. note that Aoki also managed to have a higher BB than K rate in japan and he translated over pretty well. (kawasaki somehow went from a poor bb/k rate in japan to a decent one in mlb. not sure how.)

for that reason alone i'd wager that toritani translates over to mlb pretty well and isn't an outright disaster like some of the other guys, though the big question i guess would be whether he can make enough contact. if his average drops 30pts like aoki's, then he has a chance to be a .350/.350/.700 guy, but if it drops 50-60pts than he's stugglihg to post an ops much over .600.

though remember, even a .650ops with good D is a big improvement over what we've had the past couple of years. an obp-heavy .650ops line with good D could easily be worth 2war.

In this case of Toritani, three year splits aren't that helpful because of age and variations in the league environment.  There are similar translation issues for a player entering his age 34 season arriving from the NPB as a player entering his age 24 season from double A.  It might actually be less reliable because of the player's age. 

I like Toritani.  I think that he can be a decent hitter and a capable defender- quite a bit like Kawasaki but with more pop and a better arm.  This will allow him to back up Reyes.

I never know how much skepticism to apply to these kinds of stories (50 per cent moderate skepticism or the full-blown 100 per cent cynic?), but for what it's worth, Steve Delabar is in the best shape of his life: 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/delabar-hopeful-as-jays-relief-search-continues/

Go for 50%, CF.  When Delabar says that he was not able to use the weighted ball program because of other unspecified injuries last year and is able to do so now, I believe him.  Whether that will help him regain better control is, of course, an open question.  The Beatles' song "The Long and Winding Road" was not written for a baseball pitcher, but could have been.

full blown 100%.

Do you consider Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil to be two of the four best pitchers on every other team? I do not, so no one else should. Consider Sanchez, Delabar, Cecil and Loup in the Bullpen and pitching better than they ever did before. Are they enough to start the Season with? I again say "no". Relievers should only make this team if they are better than Cecil and Loup. That's probably not going to happen, but it doesn't mean we can't try to do that.

As RP last year:

B.Cecil (28): 53.1ip, 2.70era, 2.34fip
M.Estrada (31): 43.2ip, 2.89era, 2.81fip
A.Loup (27): 68.2ip, 3.15era, 3.83fip
A.Sanchez (22): 33.0ip, 1.09era, 2.80fip
T.Redmond (30): 75.0ip, 3.24era, 3.56fip
C.Jenkins (27): 31.2ip, 2.56era, 3.48fip
R.Rasmussen (26): 11.1ip, 3.18era, 4.37fip
L.Hendriks (26): 7.0ip, 3.86era, 1.42fip

Gone:

C.Janssen (33): 45.2ip, 3.94era, 4.14fip
D.McGowan (33): 43.0ip, 3.39era, 4.99fip
S.Delabar (31): 25.2ip, 4.91era, 5.59fip
S.Santos (31): 21.0ip, 8.57era, 6.04fip
E.Rogers (29): 20.2ip, 6.97era, 5.41fip
N.Wagner (30): 10.0ip, 8.10era, 4.73fip
B.Morrow (30): 6.0ip, 4.50era, 2.30fip
J.A.Happ (32): 5.0ip, 7.20era, 6.73fip

Do you consider Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil to be two of the four best pitchers on every other team? I do not, so no one else should.

Richard, I agree with your thought exactly here, but man, the way you put that made me laugh.  I'll admit to having thought that idea before, but you have the guts to put it into words.

kawasaki somehow went from a poor bb/k rate in japan to a decent one in mlb. not sure how.

Japanese players on a whole are just so technically sound and team oriented that it doesn't surprise me much ... he was more valuable swinging the bat in Japan and more valuable working the walk here. 

total wishcasting, but personally, I'd love to see Ichiro here for a final season as a pinch-runner / 4th OF rather than having a young hitter play part time.  How long would Pompey have to stay down to delay his service clock a year? 

I did say the Jays should have signed Lowrie but I read that he lives in Houston in the off-season so the Jays had almost no shot, unless they emptied their wallet.
one definite positive to look at is Toritani's great BB rate.

Lowrie's BB rate would be better than the list of 2B in a previous post. Lowrie has already signed for 4 years with Houston: 8M, 7M, 6.5M, 6M team option 1M buyout.

Would some other non-Jays 2Bs who would be fight for 2B playing time elsewhere be interesting to the Jays ?

More potential 2Bs:
Everth Cabrera
Dean Anna (under major league contract to the Cardinals but behind Kozma, Wong and Peralta on depth chart)
Jeff Bianchi

I do not, so no one else should.

Now there's a hell of a worldview.

".....Brandon Morrow lands in San Diego, the home of ex-Jays looking for pillow contracts...."

Any thoughts on the advantages and disadvantages of incentive-laden contracts?  My gut feeling has always been that the Jays are stupid to eschew them, since incentive deals seem to offer lots of advantages.  Then I took a look at Morrow's specific new contract with San Diego.  On reflection, I have concerns about it.  It seems to offer $1-million in extra salary if he's in the bullpen, and $5-million if he's in the rotation (on top of a base guaranteed salary of $2.5-million).  Seems logical, but isn't this a recipe for dissent and discontent and unhappiness?  Morrow's idea of qualifying for the rotation, versus the team's idea, could be very different.  Morrow might think he deserves a rotation slot even if his ERA if 5.00 (or pick any other metric) whereas the team might prefer to try a young prospect in the rotation if Morrow has mediocre numbers. So then you've got an extremely unhappy pitcher who doesn't want to be in the bullpen, doesn't think he deserves to be in the bullpen, and resents the pitcher who replaced him in the rotation -- not just for the usual reasons of professional pride, but also because it's costing him $4-million in lost earnings, which is a significant amount of money for most of us, and even for most players. Doesn't it just create conflict and discontent?

Agreed ChinaFan, and the concerns you gave about morale and individual needs vs. the needs of the team are exactly why AA opposes the incentive-laden contract.

That said, a stronger manager could probably manage the balancing act ...

The problem with incentives, while on a budget is you have to account for them being fulfilled. If you have $125.0 MM in Salaries and $15.0 MM in Future Incentives, with a Budget of $140.0 MM, you are finished spending.

The Jays have given a minor-league contract to former Oakland 1B Daric Barton, a one-time top prospect and first-round draft pcik, who had a good season for Oakland in 2010 at the age of 24 with a .798 OPS but has declined ever since (except for a bit of an uptick in 2013).  His numbers at AAA in the past few seasons suggest that he's another Dan Johnson type, except with less power and more on-base skills.

career 102wrc+. was good as recent as 2013 wjth a 106wrc+ in limited at bats. has little to no power but draws plenty of walks with a good obp. his defense by the numbers looks pretty solid.

heck, i might like him better than smoak.

Barton had only 120 plate appearances in the majors in 2013, so the sample size for that season is not really big enough to draw any conclusions from.  It's really been 5 years since he had a good season in the majors.   Not sure whether injuries have played any role, and -- if so -- whether he might be a candidate for a bounce-back.   To my eye, the only intriguing thing about Barton is his very high OBP rate: he has a career OBP of .356 in the majors and a career .392 at the AAA level.  The guy can draw a walk.   He led the league in walks in 2010 with 110 of them.  An unconventional skill for a 1B to provide, but maybe he could be useful at some point.

Good option to add to the system. I have nothing bad to say other than he can't close.

Barton is an interesting addition.  He has significant reverse platoon splits over his major league career-with comparable W/K numbers against lefties, significantly more power and a much higher BABIP.  He's had almost 600 PAs against LHP, so it's likely that this is mostly a reflection of actual abilities rather than a sample size fluke.  It would, of course, be better if he had the usual platoon splits.

Barton does have excellent defensive skills, and he hits LHP quite well (a career OPS of .809 vs LHP) so perhaps he could platoon with Smoak if the Jays don't want to put Valencia in that role.

We can't say the Blue Jays are doing nothing. Just doing nothing very significant or expected.

Looking further at Barton's splits:  while his career numbers against LHP look good, he seems to have deteriorated significantly against LHP in the past four seasons.  So I'm not sure whether he'd even be a suitable platoon role player in 2015.  Looks unlikely to me, unless the Jays can fix something in his swing, or unless they're content to get some walks from him.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I think I'd even put him behind Colabello in terms of his potential upside.

so perhaps [Barton] could platoon with Smoak if the Jays don't want to put Valencia in that role.

IMO, Among Colabello, Smoak and Barton, two can platoon at first base. The leftover third plays in Buffalo. Depending on situations and Jays needs, in my opinion, Barton or Smoak platoons with Colabello who is older than the other 2.

A trade idea:
Toronto gives Danny Valencia, gets Sam Fuld or Craig Gentry
Houston gives Gregorio Petit, gets Danny Valencia
Oakland gives Sam Fuld or Craig Gentry, gets Gregorio Petit

Matt Dominguez struggled in 2014 -- 564 AB .586 OPS -- and Lowrie's 4 years signing with the Astros creates a surplus on the left side of the diamond --  3B and SS -- in Petit and Marwin Gonzalez. While the later is more versatile in infield fielding positions, Petit can help Oakland that relies on the older Nick Punto, as of now.

Gentry or Fuld shall provide an on-base and base-stealing thread ahead of Jose Reyes. Shall they draw more walks than Reyes would ?

Amended lineup:
SS Reyes
C Martin
LF Joey Bats
DH EE
3B Donaldson
RF Saunders
1B Smoak/Barton
2B Goins/Izturis/Tolleson/new 2B
CF Fuld / Pompey / Pillar

Ok Blue Jays go claim Moises Sierra back - you have spots on the 40 man roster & you can always Designate him later if needed.

IMO, Among Colabello, Smoak and Barton, two can platoon at first base.

Or Valencia can be the RH half of the 1B platoon insofar as he has an actual track record in the majors of hitting lefthanded pitching.

I doubt Barton can be decent player at this point in his career. Over the last 4 seasons, he has had 600 plate appearances in the big leagues, about a full season's worth. In that stretch, he has hit .216/.323/.284/.608, which is absolutely terrible for a 1B. Heck, it would be bad for a SS. I'd strongly disagree with having him in some kind of platoon at 1B/DH instead of Valencia or even instead of Smoak. Valencia is a terrific hitter vs lefties, with a career line of .327/.368/.502/.870. Barton shouldn't get out of Buffalo unless there are injury problems.

Barton is just minor league filler. He's a good sign by management, mostly because he still has a tiny bit of upside if he can somehow work through whatever his issues are. Don't count on it, however. Maybe he can be a good mentor in AAA

Of course Steve Delabar is in the best shape of his life, the Blue Jays haven't done anything to address the bullpen yet.

The bullpen is already better....addition by subtraction. See Ugly's prior post showing ststs on relievers still here and those dismissed.

Ok Blue Jays go claim Moises Sierra back - you have spots on the 40 man roster & you can always Designate him later if needed.

I personally don't really see the point.

He hasn't hit LHP or RHP well at the MLB level. Metrics don't like his defense. He can't play CF. He hits RH on a RHH heavy team. He's out of options and can't be sent down for depth.

He doesn't really add anything over Saunders, Pillar or Pompey. His biggest asset is a cannon-for-an-arm which is negated by Bautista already in RF.

Pass.

I doubt Barton can be decent player at this point in his career. Barton shouldn't get out of Buffalo unless there are injury problems.
Barton is just minor league filler. He's a good sign by management, mostly because he still has a tiny bit of upside if he can somehow work through whatever his issues are. Don't count on it, however. Maybe he can be a good mentor in AAA

Comparing Clint Robinson and Daric Barton, Robinson had played in New Hamsphire and Buffalo for 2013. He subsequently played for the Dodgers AAA and was called up in 2014. Not necessarily that Barton can follow Robinson's path back to the MLB, the amazing Jays higher minor league system has been producing prospects like those in the trade for Lawrie and retuning veterans... McGowen's recovery from major injury setback to a major league free agent is one good proof.

BUT, I do agree that Barton's current upside value is tiny.

Barton is definitely a strange case.  He had a fine season at age 24, and hasn't been able to hit since.  For his career, he hit 8 homers at home and 22 on the road.  He's got a career line of .250/.362/.382 on the road.  He's had a pop-up problem the last few years, and that gets aggravated by playing in Oakland with its foul territory.  He's been bad, but it is only 600 PAs and he isn't old. 

One of his age 28 BBRef comparables is Wes Parker.  Parker had a pretty crappy age 28 season (.239/.312/.314 in 534 PAs in a lousy environment- 1968 in Dodger Stadium), but then bounced back for three good years.  I can imagine Barton doing something similar once liberated from Oakland and put in the friendly confines of the RC. 

I think a big part of Wes Parker's 1968 season can be explained by the famous "Year Of The Pitcher", which was the pinnacle of the increasing shift to lower and lower scoring games. Bob Gibson had an ERA of 1.12, pitched 13(!) shutouts and won the NL MVP award. He lost 5 complete games by 1-0 scores. Denny McLain won 31 games and won the AL MVP award. The average OPS in the NL was .641 and in the AL it was .637. I was just getting interested in baseball back then and I remember thinking how futile batters looked. It seemed almost impossible to score runs. The mound was lowered and the strike zone was shrunk the next year to try to get some offense into the game, and the league's OPS numbers soared to the high 600's in 1969 and the low 700's in 1970. That probably accounts for Parker's improved performance the next 3 years. I don't there's going to be any such rescue package for Barton.

The Jays have signed a Canadian lefty starter for Buffalo/depth, Andrew Albers. He's 29, pitched in Korea last year after getting 10 starts for the Twins in 2013 and producing an ERA of 4.05 despite striking out an amazingly low 25 batters in 60 IP. Only walked 7. Has had some decent success in the minors, producing a career ERA of 3.54.

I think Jays scouts have a good idea about Barton. What he's been doing poorly could be compared to what he was once doing well. Should know what to do then. Of course that might not work.

A.A.'s probably going after Chapman, or some overly expensive Reliever. The Team lacks depth and A.A. is always trading that depth away. There were some good ones available for just money, but that's not A.A.'s way. Shame on him.

If you are interested, check this out:
http://www.bluejaysplus.com/blue-jays-payroll-deception/#sthash.jSYBlTak.dpbs
It's possible the Jays have $13.00 MM - $15.0 MM left to spend, but they've always said A.A. could ask for more.

For anyone who might be panicking because the Jays haven't yet filled their bullpen holes -- for example the person in this thread who warned dramatically of a "disaster unfolding" -- you might benefit from looking at a Fangraphs projection of team WAR for next season, based on two different methodologies.  One method is based on Steamer projections. The other method (the "recency bias") is based on the WAR of each player in 2014, adjusted by their expected playing time in 2015.  Astonishingly, by these two methods, the Jays are projected as either the best or second-best team in the American League in 2015 -- despite losing Cabrera and Lind, despite not having filled their bullpen holes yet, despite not having upgraded at 2B or 1B yet.  It seems that the benefits of Martin/Donaldson/Saunders are greater than we sometimes realize.  It should be an interesting season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-projections-and-last-seasons-statistics/

Footnote to the above:  of course that Fangraphs analysis is not meant to be any kind of definitive guide to the future; it's just a rough guess at where the teams might be standing now.  I'm sure it contains some anomalies -- for example does it accept the unlikely scenario that Devon Travis will produce a 2.3 WAR next season as Steamer seems to project?  But I'm sure there are such anomalies for other teams too, which might balance out each other.  It's still interesting.

I hope the Jay's have someone working diligently on Intl signings.
Many pleasant surprises come from this source. Fringy 15-20 year olds just blossom unexpectantly. At this time of year the projected stars have been signed. IMO there is nothing to lose, so take chances. Even if you have to field a 2nd DSL team.
Of course budget restrictions and number of players signed may play into this.

very promising comment from a public chat at BP:

Ryan (Aurora): Who has the best group of young starting pitching prospects?

Top 10s Chat With Chris Mellen: For sheer volume of arms in the lists we have done so far, Toronto's stick out. Sanchez, Norris, and Hoffman are a pretty good start right there. From the reports and chatter, Jairo Labourt is a player I feel can really breakout and gain some good traction in 2015. Miguel Castro is a legit power arm that's realistically a 'pen guy, but can really bring it.

Reid-Foley, Osuna, Tirado, and add in Smoral from the OTR section. Volatility for sure overall, but busting at the seams with arms.

"A.A.'s probably going after Chapman, or some overly expensive Reliever. The Team lacks depth and A.A. is always trading that depth away. There were some good ones available for just money, but that's not A.A.'s way. Shame on him."

Excuse me for being blunt, but this is absolutely absurd. Not only are you completely speculating something based on pretty much nothing, you're actually shaming AA based on your own pure speculation. You don't even know if AA was going hard after good FA relievers but they simply did not want to come here.

Giants resign Romo. 2 years $15 total. Probably the best spot for him, the Giants play in a pitchers' park that really helps a guy like Romo, and they have a couple of good lefties in the pen, so they don't have to expose him to lefty hitters late in games in key AB's. Toronto wouldn't have been as good a destination for him due to the park.

You never know, but I'm assuming that AA won't spend big money on a relief pitcher. The Jays have done that twice - Randy Myers and B.J. Ryan - and both turned out disastrously. Trading Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco didn't work out either.

My guess is that he will move Navarro for pitching, and then sign a bunch of low-priced relievers and see which ones can cut it. (My guesses are usually wrong.)

I'm all for the Jays starting the season with Norris &/or Castro in the bullpen provided they earn their spots in Spring Training. I'd prefer Sanchez be in the bullpen for 2015 as well, but it appears he is destined to start as of now. I like the notion of young pitchers getting acclimated to MLB in the bullpen. A hard throwing bullpen excites me & likely makes Cecil's curveball more effective for a high leverage inning near the end of a game. The optimists would look at a healthy Delabar; a more consistent healthy strike throwing Drabek; a mid 90's lefty in Norris & strike pounding upper 90's Castro as a strong bullpen. I like Jenkins, Loup & Estrada in the 'pen as well. I don't think the bullpen is near as bleak as some make it to be. My hope is that AA is focused on another starting pitcher via trade.

and furthermore, the best rp acquisitions seem to have been the ones we gave up depth prospects for. even if santos and delabar were only effective for a short time, at leastvthey were valuable for that short time, while molina and thames turned out to be nothing,

Jays sign Ryan Kalish to minor league deal per MLBTR

Royals sign Volquez for 2 years, $20M.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/royals-nearing-two-year-deal-with-edinson-volquez.html

Something like that should have been a no-brainer for the Jays. If they didn't try, I don't like what it says about the team.

Big 3-way deal with Rays, Nationals, San Diego

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/padres-rays-nationals-agree-to-three-team-trade.html

"and furthermore, the best rp acquisitions seem to have been the ones we gave up depth prospects for."

Travis Snider hit .264/.338/.438 in 359 PA for the Pirates last year with a sustainable .298 BABIP. I'm stuck between rooting for a player I've always liked and really hoping that trade doesn't come back to bite the team in the ass. He's another guy that would be nice to have around

Volquez, the guy who was great this year but terrible last, and had very similar FIP (4.15, and 4.24 respectively) both years? The main difference between his 2013 and 2014 is ball in play luck (.325 vs .263), despite having a lower K rate in 2014. You're basically paying 10m a year for someone who may or may not be slightly better than J.A. Happ, who was more consistent and had FIPs only slightly higher (4.27 and 4.31). I'd think about him more if we had a pitcher's park, but the odds of Volquez succeeding in Skydome aren't high enough to be worth 10m a year.

Travis snider is entering his age 27 season, has 2 years of control left and posted a WAR of 1.7 last year - after totaling negative 0.2 in the three seasons prior to that.  Steamer predicts a 1.1 next year, at about 2 million dollars following arbitration. 

For him, we got some mediocre pitching from Brad Lincoln, who we then flipped for some mediocre backstopping from Eric Kratz and a relief prospect in Rob Rasmussen.  Kratz and waiver wire freebie Liam Hendricks were swapped for Danny Valencia, who may or may not contribute for us next year off the bench.  Unless Snider has a breakout season, can't say that those transactions amount to much of anything.  Rasmussen might turn out to be the best of the bunch - which says it all I think.

That's an interesting three-way trade.  it looks like the Rays are prepared to take a step backwards in order to rebuild their young core - they upgrade at catcher with a pitch framer who can actually hit, if you buy into Rivera's emergence at the age of 31, but lose a potential big bat next year in Meyers, while adding several interesting prospects.   The Nats are swapping prospects around, and the Padres seem to want to get better sooner rather than later.  The Kemp deal makes more sense now, but I still can't see them competing next year. 

So go get Zobrist already AA!

Myers isn't a loss for the rays. he's a no defense corner OF who'll maybe hit league average if he bounces back. repeating his babip-fuelled rookie year is unlikely, based on his overall mediocre performance in AA (131wrc+, 20+k%) and AAA (139wrc+, 23+k%). now in mlb his k rate is approaching 25% and his overall slightly above league average line is still boosted by his high babip. and pitchers are happy throwing him sliders outside, because he can't seem to adjust to them. like many a righty power bat before him.

rays would be very smart to get some talent back for him before his prospect shine fades completely like smoak's did.

Which may be what the Jays did this offseason with Lawrie and Gose, having previously wasted away Snider and Drabek?

P.S. - Can Drabek be in the mix this year? Does he still exist?

Steven Souza doesn't have Myers prospect pedigree but he's a very underrated player - I think the Padres would have been better off just acquiring Souza from the Nationals - cost less and more yrs. of control - I like this deal for both the Rays & Nationals.

I doubt that Drabek exist in the jays world - wasn't called up in September & haven't heard his name mentioned by any Jays official in any capacity - I wonder if there is some sort of attitude problem & he will go the way of Deck McGuire.

A.A. set out to fill holes and along the way upgraded some positions. He's filled just one hole. A.A. and his team had discussions about signing one of the big Relievers or spreading the money around a few more lesser lights (his words). How's that working out?

When deciding what to do with Navarro, A.A. must have decided what he wants back in return. Was a very good Reliever ever considered as fair value? A.A. has one week until Christmas, at which the Trade Market almost totally stops as G.M.s are 'setting their teams'. I just don't think the calibre of Player A.A. wants is available then.

A.A. has had a great Offseason, with two Big Home Runs. He's still got a huge amount of things to do, most of it is very important. I know he won't get it all done without unlimited funds, but I expect a lot more than nothing done.

Going into the winter the holes were CF, 2B, LF, the RH part of DH, and the pen.  LF is solved, 2B might be (if Travis is ready), DH I don't feel is truly solved and might be downgraded, the pen hasn't changed much but Estrada is more willing to be there than Happ so that is kinda an upgrade.  Navarro could be the DH right now, but I doubt he is here come spring but if he is then DH is solved too but not as well as I'd like.

I'd love to see him get Chapman from the Reds, or another high end closer just to ensure the rest of the pen can be used appropriately.  That Japanese player at 2B would be nice too, just  so there is a plan if Travis isn't ready - I don't trust Izturis/Goins/Tolleson even for a month.

oing into the winter the holes were CF, 2B, LF, the RH part of DH, and the pen.  [...] DH I don't feel is truly solved and might be downgraded, [...] Navarro could be the DH right now,

Is Wladimir Balentien appealing to the Jays ? He showed excellent hitting record in Japan, shall be cheaper than MLB free agents, and plays OF and DH. With him, the Jay outfield picture is Saunders, Balentien, JB19, Pompey/Cabrera. His temper may be a setback.

In similar sense as Martin rendering Navarro more a trade value, is Danny Valencia more valuable now with Donaldson in the picture ? Could trading Valenica and Navarro together get the Jays a good starting 2B ? Tolleson and Izturis can help defend and hit as bench players.

Wladimir Balentien would be tempting to me if I ran a ML team.  60 HR in Japan in 2013, 30+ in each of his 4 years there.  Depends on the price - if he really, really wants to come back to MLB and would sign a team friendly deal (ie: under $5 mil with options) then I'd say 'why not'.

As to Takashi Toritani, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. “We’ve scouted him quite a bit,” Anthopoulos said to Jeff Blair on Sportsnet 590 The FAN. “We have some scouts that like him and he’s someone that we’ve certainly talked about internally. Beyond that I probably wouldn’t get into anything else, but certainly a guy like that would fit.” (via MLB Trade Rumors).

Anthopoulos has done a nice job with depth signings this off-season- Kalish, Barton, and Fox are all useful players for Buffalo.  He needs another pitcher for the 5/6/7 role, ideally someone with more starting experience who can compete for the 5 slot in spring training and if he ends up in Buffalo would be ready to fill in if injuries occur early in the season. 

The Jays have signed a Canadian lefty starter for Buffalo/depth, Andrew Albers. He's 29

To continue the discussion of Canadian MLB players, IF Taylor Green signed with the Brewers. Is he useful in the sense like Tolleson ? Green is more a 2B than 3B, the latter position the Brewers has been assigning him to. If after spring training he is let go for free agency chance, could he be useful for Buffalo and Toronto ? Talking about surprise at 2B, Jim Negrych played in Taiwan (.894 OPS) after had been plying in Buffalo. He was later sidelined for a season-ending broken quadriceps injury in late August 2014 for 2 to 3 months recovery. Will he be useful this 2015 season, assuming he is likely to base stealing less ?

He needs another pitcher for the 5/6/7 role, ideally someone with more starting experience who can compete for the 5 slot in spring training and if he ends up in Buffalo would be ready to fill in if injuries occur early in the season.

To recap, the Jays signed 1B Collabello,1B Barton, OF Kalish, OF Gindl, IF Fox, RP Albers,OF Cabrera, SP Francis. Could Fox still catch ? Plus a few Jays prospect realistcally will start 2015 in Buffalo (say C JImenez), half of the Buffalo roster has been set.

Burns , Stilson , Drabek, Glenn, Travis, shrimpf, Macfarland, Norris, Sikula, Jiminez,which other prospects are there?

The second, third and fourth threads here cover the Batters Box top 30 prospects.  There have been a few changes since then.  Barreto, Graveman and Nolin are gone.  Devon Travis has been added. 

Most of the names on your list are organizational players, who may get a cup of coffee or two in the Show but are not likely to make a significant contribution. 

Was suggesting those names for AAA this year

Balentien is under contract for two more years. He's not a free agent.

As for Buffalo, Drabek is unlikely to be there as he is out of options. Chad Jenkins and Rasmussen may be as they have options remaining along with Cory Burns, Colt Hynes, Bo Schultz and Matt Hague. Another is pitcher Scott Copeland who may turn out to be more than an org filler as he had some excellent results in the second half last season and so far in the VWL.

Here's a nice summary of how the projection systems did in 2014.  Please note that the author is comparing projection of offensive performance only.   ZiPs did best in 2014; Steamer more than held its own on rookies and players age 24 and under.  The Devon Travis/Dalton Pompey offensive projections from Steamer are worth another look. 

So what FA relievers are still appealing? 

I wouldn't be unhappy buying low with either Jansen or McGowan back on a reasonable deal.  Both guys could feel more comfortable rebuilding their value in a familiar environment - or could be looking for a fresh start.

Jason Grilli has been undervalued for a while now, and as a 38 year old should be affordable. We could try waiting out the market on Francisco Rodriguez or Soriano, and Burke Badenhop still looks like a quality middle reliever, a role which still looks reasonably priced (think of the Jason Frasor contract) relative to the money being thrown at setup guys like Neshek, Duke or Gregorson. 

Sign me an international FA 2b, a closer candidate and a middle reliever and I'm happy.  I wouldn't object to much for a younger closer on a trade, but I'm not crazy about sitting out the second half of the FA market. 

Pompey isn't projected well by Steamer - just a 238/297/353 line with a negative on defense (?) resulting in a 0.3 WAR over 437 PA.  Pillar is listed at 275/311/407, negative on defense, 1.2 WAR overall (427 PA).  Of course, the problem with Pompey is he was a level jumper last year, climbing from Dunedin to the majors, with most of his time in Dunedin (70 games there vs 60 in AA/AAA/ML combined) thus I'd expect all projection systems to be down on him.  Davenport though likes him - 259/333/411. 

The negative projection for Pompey defensively is laughable.  If he hits as poorly as Steamer projects, he's still probably a 2 WAR player.   I think that he'll do better than that (he's a much better hitter left-handed and the Jays aren't likely to face too many left-handed starters because of the tilt of their lineup), but you do have to respect the possibility or even likelihood of significant adjustment issues. 

Incidentally, Travis is a right-handed hitter but has hit  noticeably better against right-handed pitching over his minor league career. 

Just went through Pompey's splits for the last 2 years combined at all levels including mlb. His slash line is almost identical. Batting right handed (vs LHP) he's .280/.360/.442/.802. Batting left handed (vs RHP) he's .289/.372/.428/.800. He did struggle in his small number of AB's at AA and above vs LHP (73 AB's) last year, but at Dunedin in 2014 and Lansing in 2013, he was better against LHP than against RHP, particularly in the power department, with 8 HR's in 194 AB's hitting right, compared to just 4 in 519 AB's hitting left. It will be interesting to see how his hitting ability from both sides of the plate progresses.

Pompey is a lot quicker with the bat from the left side, which makes it easier for him to make the transition to hitting better pitching. 

As a reminder of why ML teams do physicals...Padres To Acquire Matt Kemp being held up as he has arthritis in both hips.  The guy has a 140 OPS+ last year and has that?  Wow.  Guess it hasn't manifested strongly yet.  At $21 mil a year through 2019 though I certainly can see why the Padres would be super-careful about it.

so a super conservative prospects-all-aren't-ready roster atm:

1. SS Reyes
2. C Martin
3. RF Bautista
4. DH Encarnacion
5. 3B Donaldson
6. LF Saunders
7. 1B Smoak
8. CF Pillar
9. 2B Goins

B. UT Valencia
B. OF Tolleson
B. IF Izturis
B. C Navarro


AAA

1. CF Pompey
2. 2B Travis
3. 1B Barton
4. DH Colabello
5. C Thole
6. LF Kalish
7. 3B Burns
8. RF Crouse
9. SS Diaz

B. UT Hague - Fox
B. OF Carrera - Gindl
B. IF Schimpf - Nolan
B. C Jimenez




1. RH Stroman
2. RH Hutchison
3. LH Buehrle
4. RH Dickey
5. RH Estrada

1. LH Cecil
2. LH Loup
3. RH Redmond
4. RH Jenkins
5. LH Rasmussen
6. RH Hendriks
7. RH Delabar

AAA

1. LH Norris
2. RH Sanchez
3. RH Drabek
4. LH Francis
5. LH Romero

1. RH Korecky
2. RH Lopez
3. RH Burns
4. LH Hynes
5. RH Schultz
6. RH Tepera
7. RH Stilson



am i missing anyone?

Michael Crouse is a free agent and in any event wouldn't be starting in AAA before some of the free agents.

I think Drabek's starting days are done after two TJ's. Scott Copeland or Austin Bibens-Dirkx are likely to the number 5 in Buffalo based on today's rosters.

am i missing anyone?

RH RP Greg Burke, whom I see replacing Lopez in Buffalo.
--------------
I wish to see Navarro traded and Thole be in his place. The AAA starting catcher can be filled more easily with free agent; even Fox could catch if he still can. Analogously, Valencia could be traded to a team looking for an upgrade at 3B, like my Toronto-Houston-Oakland trade idea that send Valencia to Houston for Fuld or Gentry from Oakland
If Valencia, Lopez, (Cabrera err...) Carrera and Hague are not traded, would the Jays build up their values for future trades just like Navarro 2014.
Valencia -- hit better against RHP
Carrera -- better hitting in general
Hague -- learn more 3B defense

If Pompey was jumping from consistent time in Dunedin to Toronto, would spending a new season in New Hamsphire better for him ? Filling an empty roster spot with player is often easier.

For Rasmussen and Jenkins who have options, they can still play in Buffalo to develop more on performance, Lopez and Korecky can step in. While the latter closed for Buffalo, veteran Greg Burke could step in afterwards to tune his own pitching for the better as he would close. Not to mention McGowan and Jansen could still sign with their old team.

I don't think that that the Jays want Janssen or McGowan back.

Uglyone, that's indeed a super-conservative lineup scenario, except that you're strangely liberal in your generous assumption that Martin can catch the knuckleball!  That might be possible, but it's far from certain at this point.  Thole seems unfortunately likely to be still with us, I fear.

I do like your scenario, however, because it shows that the Jays have a strong lineup even if they fail to add anyone else.  But they definitely will add others -- probably a 2B and probably 2 or 3 relievers, at a minimum.  Maybe others too.

I think Sanchez is definitely in the majors in 2015, even if we don't know whether he'll be in the bullpen or the rotation.  I don't see any scenario in which he is in Buffalo in 2015, unless he's recovering from injury or something.  I also think it's extremely unlikely that Navarro doesn't get traded.

Goins is an interesting question.  Assuming the Jays acquire another 2B, do you keep Goins as the utility guy for 2B and SS (on the assumption that he's not going to get much better at this point in his career), or do you send him back to Buffalo and hope that he can eventually learn to hit?

Hendriks seems unlikely to join the bullpen, in my view.  If the Jays thought he had the stuff to be a big-league reliever, he would have been in the bullpen last year.  He is just an emergency depth starter in case of rotation injuries, I think.   Rasmussen also seems like a Buffalo bullpen guy, except that every year at least one minor-league reliever ends up surprising us and joining the major-league bullpen, and someone like Rasmussen might be the one this year.

Ugly, I think Berti would be in AAA as well but I think it looks good other than that. I would guess Crouse would re-sign with Blue Jays but he may not.

Short relief, presuming Sanchez is in the rotation: Cecil, Loup, Delabar, Rasmussen. As much as RP performance tends to swing wildly I have a hard time fathoming anyone that doesn’t see that situation as being much bleaker than anything to do with 2b.

In terms of what can be done: Janssen makes sense, but he had a foot out the door before the end of the year and I’m not sure the Jays will pay what he’s worth. Joba had a decent year last year and signed on a 1-year deal at 2.5million (coming off a bad year) and may be worth a long look. Logan Ondrusek who has gone from out-performing his peripherals when they were bad, to improved K/bb in the last few years, and added velocity which has led, maybe ironically, to better peripherals/FIP but year-end stats that he’s underperformed. I wouldn’t mind thinking more about him. Any other bargin bin shopping? Trade targets?

am i missing anyone?

I think Blake McFarland and Gregory Infante will displace a few of the AAAA guys like Schultz or Burns. 

Does anyone have a sense of one of this minor league signings that might stick in the pen?  i look at a guy like Schultz's numbers and I just see an org soldier.

as far as the minor league signings, I think Wilton Lopez is the best bet if he is healthy.

Yes, I have Lopez listed in on my tentative opening day roster. I have Cecil, Loup, Estrada(assuming Sanchez is a starter), Redmond, Delabar, Lopez, and 1 from a laundry list of about 10 candidates at the moment for the bullpen, assuming they will have 7 relievers. That last bullpen spot is the one area I think the team needs the most improvement. They need another reliable guy who can be used in the late innings, and Drabek, Rasmussen, Tepera, etc. aren't that guy.

Goins is an interesting question.

Can the Jays coaching tune Goins into a 10 HR threat, like a 15 to 54 HR JoeyBats ?

That last bullpen spot is the one area I think the team needs the most improvement. They need another reliable guy who can be used in the late innings, and Drabek, Rasmussen, Tepera, etc. aren't that guy.

Maybe this is wild. would Bobby Korecky the Buffalo closer get a chance of MLB in 2015 ?

If you look at the team depth charts on MLB.com, you will see that Arizona has only one catcher listed and he does not seem starter material. There are 8 starting pitchers and 10 relievers listed. Seems like the perfect match for a trade. Wonder why it hasn't happened yet?

Perhaps AA is waiting for the Kemp-Grandal deal to finalize so he can trade Navarro to the Padres for Seth Smith.

Trading Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco didn't work out either.

Really? I think it worked out very well. The attraction of Francisco was that he would be a free agent after one year and likely garner a draft pick. He did and that's why we now have Matt Smoral.

The Rangers got one very good year out of Napoli and then a year where he hit .227 and was not made a qualifying offer. He left and they got nothing. The good year in 2011 would not have altered the Blue Jays at all, even had he played the same. Toronto had Lind and Encarnacion at first and DH, and Arencibia in his rookie year.

I like AA's strategy of not overpaying relievers and instead trying to collect as many on minor league contracts or waivers as he can. Obviously KC's World Series run has driven up the price for relievers, but at the end of the day, nothing has changed. Bullpens are still volatile year to year, and resources are still better spent on more important areas. The Jays have failed starters (Drabek/Jenkins) who they can use in relief, and still have a trade chip in Navarro to potentially add a more reliable one.

If no other starters are added the rest of the way, I think Sanchez has to be the #5 starter. The Jays have an elite pitch framer and defensive catcher in Martin behind the plate, which might help Sanchez with some of his command issues, and a 65% GB rate (if he can even come close to duplicating that as a starter) will mask some of his K issues. More importantly, he's too big of an asset to waste in relief, and the Jays seem intent on starting him in the big leagues regardless of his role, so I'd prefer he's a starter and hope for the best. Don't get me wrong, I'd really prefer adding an established MLB starter and using Sanchez in AAA as a starter, but I think AA is close to his payroll ceiling at this point and we have to roll with what we have in the rotation.

The Jays have confirmed the minor-league contract for Andrew Albers.  Can anyone explain what happened to this guy?  Decent numbers for Minnesota in 60 innings as a starter in 2013 (or at least replacement-level numbers anyway), and then terrible numbers in Korea last year.  Which is the real Albers?  Did he get injured or something?  Anyway he's likely to be a depth piece in the Buffalo rotation in 2015.

A little context might help for Albers' season in the KBO.   He was pitching in front of a bad club in a horrible environment for a pitching.  As a soft-tossing lefty, it's about the worst place for him. 

He's a lot like Hendriks, except he strikes out fewer and is a lefty.  Excellent addition. 

Are the Padres playing fantasy baseball? Looks like their outfield will be Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Will Myers.

New article by Kiley McDaniel on Fangraphs suggesting that Jays are one of 3 teams that are almost definitely going to exceed international bouns spending pool in 2015. If it is true that the team is going to load up with int'l prospects in July, AA may be more willing to trade a couple of prospects now than he might be otherwise.

Dave Cameron suggests that the Padres might be "cornering" the market and that one of the big boomers might be off to Texas for a middle infielder. 

I am hoping that there is a free pass for bad puns on the Friday before Christmas.

Albers' team in Korea, the Hanwha Eagles, didn't even bother to pick up his option for 2015.  In a Sportsnet report today, he admitted that his stuff "just wasn't there" last season, or at least in the early stages thereof.  So regardless of the poor pitching environment, it doesn't seem that he did particularly well in Korea.

I'm trying to understand why he wouldn't have had a better major-league opportunity last season, after those decent numbers for Minnesota in 2013.  Did nobody want him, so he had to go to Korea? Who goes to Korea if you could have a major-league job?   If nobody in MLB wanted him last year, what did they know that the Jays don't know?

It looks like the Twins received some significant amount of cash from Hanwha for Albers- analogous, I suppose, to a posting fee.  Their decision might have been motivated in part by the allure of the green.

It also looks like the MLB hitters figured him out.  He had two great starts at the beginning of his Minnesota career (shutouts against the Royals and Cleveland) and then was roughed up to the tune of a 5.70 ERA and an opposition OPS of .846 for the remainder of his Minnesota career.

As a Canadian and an inspirational story from North Battleford, Sask., he'll get my cheers and best wishes, but I think the Jays will be in trouble if he's anything more than minor-league depth.

Albers is interesting as AAA/AA depth.  His ML stats are odd - just 3.8 K/9 vs a AAA figure that year of 7.9 - much, much bigger spread than should happen. That year he had a 7 IP 5 H 0 BB 5 K shutout game vs the Jays - he had a total of 3 games allowing 0 runs each time (7, 8 1/3, 9 IP) but also allowed 5 ER 3 times, and his last 3 games he allowed 4/8/4 runs (10 of those 16 were earned...must have been a nightmare on defense those games).  He clearly can get ML hitters out, but must have some issue in repeating his motion or something I'd think with the inconsistency.

He was originally drafted in the 10th round, played rookie ball at 22, missed a year, a year in Can-Am Association, at 25 signed with Minnesota and played in A+, AA with a 2.16 ERA.  at 26 had 2 games in rookie (rehab?) and 19 in AA (3.75 ERA, 1.1 BB/9 vs 6.7 K/9), at 27 had 22 starts in AAA (2.86 ERA) before his 60 ML innings (10 starts).  Korea didn't go so well (5.89 ERA) but we'll see if he can be solid here.  I'd expect a strong AA, good AAA starter with potential for a 2 or 3 start call up if injuries occur (cover a 15 day DL stint) and he is hot at the time.  Certainly nothing wrong with giving him a shot.

I guess everyone has a different idea about who is more likely to succeed.  If you take a first baseman like Colabello, who had a decent year at age 28 in 2012, an excellent offensive year in triple A at age 29 and a poor one at age 30 in the majors, I am very skeptical.  If you take a left-handed pitcher like Albers with a similar history and who is 29 years old, I am much less so.  It has more to do with what I take to be the inherent variability of pitchers.  Maybe he ends up as a left-handed specialist and pitches until he's 40. These kinds of things happen with pitchers much more than with position players.

nifty move by the Sox to pick up a good catcher in exchange for a worthless middlebrooks.

As a Canadian and an inspirational story from North Battleford, Sask., he'll get my cheers and best wishes, but I think the Jays will be in trouble if he's anything more than minor-league depth.

Regarding Canadian ballplayers, could my speculation that some Canadians receive more baseball resources such as playing time, minor league contract than some other ? I mean not a kind of mistreatment among fellow Canadians but probably how each baseball organization, MLB and whatsnot, treats Canadian ballplayer in allocating resources for them ? For example, Adam Loewen had been an Orioles' pitcher, then a Jays' hitter, and then a Phillies' pitcher. If the Jays, the only Canadian and non-US Canadian team had not tried him as an OFer, would he still be regraded as a pitcher all his career ? In this light, signing Albers and Barton for AA/AAA depth, which can take ballplayer being or older than 26, is good ? Is acquiring Scott Richmond, Shawn Hill, Adam Loewen, Jeff Francis indicative of this reclamation or re-development of less helped Canadian ballplayers ?

Scott Mathieson and Chris Leroux pitched in Japan; would the Jays consider them ? Based on their performances, The Giants -- in Japan -- may wanna keep Mathieson who was second in saves. How about Leroux, if the Jays sign Albers?

The Yankees are apparently shipping out Prado and letting Refsnyder run with the second base job.  Refsnyder was a collegiate outfielder and his defence is described as a work-in-progress.  He can hit.  It's probably riskier to start Refsnyder than to start Devon Travis, even if Steamer is of the view that they re equivalent talents.

Would AA consider Prado for 2B job ?

No....I don't think Jays would want Prado....highly overpaid for what he brings.

In other news, Jays have claimed lhp Juan Oramus from San Diego. He was ranked Padres 18th best prospect in 2014 by BA.

Bauxite prospect gurus: where should Oramas rank among Jays top-30 prospects? 

In this crazy offseason, I don't think you can assume that the Yankees will run with Refsnyder @ 2B - perhaps they sign Asdrubal Cabrera? - I really like Eovaldi - he can give 200 innings with upside

I've thought with his versatility that Prado would have made an interesting pick-up to use as the 'DH', giving the regulars frequent half-days off.

Oramas has a legit chance to be a quality lefty reliever this year. he was pretty dominant as a starter in the minors up until he hit the PCL. big fan of this pickup.

I like the Oramas acquisition as well.  Last year, he was killed by lefties in triple A; 6 homers and 51 hits in 28.2 innings (I don't know why milb reports their splits in traditional pitching format rather than in batting format- i.e. by PA).

If you remove him from the PCL and give him a shot in Buffalo, he might make it as a starter. 

Oramas was designated for assignment and the Jays claimed him, meaning somewhere near 20 other teams passed. That would suggest Oramas would not make the top 30, or if he did he would be in the twenties somewhere.

What about asking on Quentin? I know that the DH slot migh be used as an 'off' day, but if you get Quentin to DH with EE at first you'd have a pretty potent offence. And Quentin isn't the most durable guy, so even with him at DH you could probably rotate in Bautista and Reyes for some off days. (This assumes that Quentin wouldn't cost an arm and a leg, which may or may not be true).

Personally, I am just as happy if they leave Encarnacion as the DH.  They've got Donaldson and Reyes on the left-side of the infield and they need a first baseman who can scoop. 

"....If you remove him from the PCL and give him a shot in Buffalo, he might make it as a starter...."

Possibly.  However, even in the PCL, his ERA was about a run above the league average.

Also worth noting:  he had TJ surgery in 2012.

One name I have not heard mentioned as a possible Jays target is Jung-Ho Kang from Korea. Curious what Bauxites think of him as a gamble for 2B. If 2015 payroll constraints are a consideration he is a non-starter, and if the Jays are sold long term on Travis there is likely little interest. However I find him intriguing , but as an intriguing and it will be interesting to see what his posting yields.

What the Jays think of Travis shouldn't matter much - if the Jays like Kang, then they should bid - can always trade somebody later - opinions on Kang seems all over the map - I expect the Jays to pass.

I tend to agree with Uglyone's point that Oramas might have more potential as a lefty reliever at this point in his career.  To my surprise, despite 8 years of professional baseball, he still has 2 option years remaining.  So he could join that revolving door of relievers between Buffalo and Toronto at some point in the next year or two, coming up to Toronto for an inning or two if the bullpen is weakened by injury -- or for a longer stint in the majors if impresses at spring training and in the minors.

Oramas succeeded at double A from 2011-14 (220 innings) and had a bad time in 110 innings in the PCL  (but still struck out more than twice as many as he walked). 

A's just released Nick Punto - any interest as a 2B stopgap? He had a pretty decent 2013 for the Dodgers, but not so great 2014 for the As (in terms of hitting). 1.8 bWAR in 2013, majority of which came from his defense.. Can (seemingly) play 3rd, 2nd, SS and OF and his defense still seems solid. May not be any better than Izturis, but if Izturis gets hurt again...

A's are on the hook for his 2015 salary (2.75M), so I wouldn't imagine he would want a ton of $$.. Might be worth it on a "I'll show them" contract.

Oramas is currently starting in MWL and leads league in K's with 62 in 63 innings.

Pass on Punto.

"....the Jays claimed him, meaning somewhere near 20 other teams passed...."

At this time of year, with so many other personnel moves buzzing around, I wonder if the Jays had more room on their 40-man roster than most other teams?  I haven't checked the other teams, but the Jays only had 37 players on their 40-man roster before today.  Many of the other 20 teams ahead of them on the waiver wire might have no room or little room on their 40-man roster. 

If so, that's an interesting market efficiency:  keeping several open slots on the 40-man roster at a time of year when many teams are being forced to dump players onto waivers to make room for free-agent acquisitions or trade acquisitions.

Pass on Punto as a player.
-----
If so, that's an interesting market efficiency:  keeping several open slots on the 40-man roster at a time of year when many teams are being forced to dump players onto waivers to make room for free-agent acquisitions or trade acquisitions.

Rendering this efficiency as a matter of convenience and chance, leaving slots on the 40-man roster open as it is and not adding someone onto the roster for the sake of just adding is IMO a good roster transaction.

Having said that, I think "AA's strategy of not overpaying relievers and instead trying to collect as many on minor league contracts or waivers as he can" is an interesting market efficiency. Getting of Lopez and Orasmas are good example in the sense that they have realistic chance to make the 40-man roster, not to mention the latter still has time to reach his potential.

Oramas is currently starting in MWL and leads league in K's with 62 in 63 innings.

Is recent performance more indicative of future performance ?

"I'm trying to understand why he (Andrew Albers) wouldn't have had a better major-league opportunity last season, after those decent numbers for Minnesota in 2013. Did nobody want him, so he had to go to Korea? "

I think it was monetary, the chance for a guaranteed $800K income, after years of making $25K. See the cbc article. A major league spring training invite last year from the Twins wouldn't guarantee this income, especially if demoted to AAA.

A.A. went into the Offseason talking about Plan A, Plan B and Plan C. Right now we can see what A.A. had in mind with all the acquisitions. We should have a very good idea on who's a Plan A acquisition; a Plan B acquisition or a Plan C acquisition. By what A.A. doesn't do, will determine if any of this changes.

Isn't A.A. getting a better class of 'bargain' acquisitions? Some of these guys might be much better than anyone expects. Some of them might need to be better than expected, if A.A. is unsuccessful.

Justin Smoak is better defensively than Edwin and the main reason Adam Lind was traded. He'll hit for a lot of power here, but although he'll hit for a better average here, it still won't be anything that good. I'm sure he's our primary 1B with E.E. being primarily DH.

Center Field is a work in progress. Dalton Pompey is the best defensively CF in the system and should be a valuable asset there. We'll just have to wait until he learns (on the job) to hit better. Unless A.A. falls into something great here, this won't change.

Second Base is interesting as I have no idea what A.A.'s actual plan is here. I don't think carrying two weak spots in the Lineup is wise, when there's still questions in the Rotation and the Bullpen. That in turn waits for A.A. to do something.

As I'd mentioned leading into the Winter Meetings, this offseason was shaping up to be an inordinately busy one for trading.  And if anything, it's been even more busy than the buzz was.

A week before Christmas, and I think there's been far more trades this offseason than some previous ones combined. Anybody know where to find the stats on number of offseason trades?


Aside from that, what  is SD doing? They are either a team without a plan, or they have cooked up a master plan to rival some of the other very active organizations. I don't get why Upton as a one-year rental makes sense for them. Are they so convinced of their ability to contend, or that they might extend Upton? And what price are they going to get for their glut of outfielders now? Smith must have a destination already, and he'd be a great fit as 4th OF/DH/PH in Toronto if the Jays wanted to open the pocket book and the Friars would take Navarro in exchange, but I doubt it would make sense to AA and his budget. Then the Padres also need to move Quentin, and probably Maybin or Venable. DIdn't Atlanta need an OF -- who have they got left now? Markakis, other Upton and....Zoilo Almonte?  This must be the fault of Bossman Junior, because of him Atlanta will field a collection of minimum wage players in LF and as spare OF. Which makes me wonder, what is ATL doing?

Perhaps there will be many more trades to come to clear up these many muddy waters.

Probably only as an exercise, would you trade NOW with the Reds in which EE for Joey Votto are the main prizes ?

This review of Oramas was after his poor 2012 season, and the TJ surgery he had afterwards. Sounds rather mediocre according to this analysis:

http://irfast.blogspot.ca/2012/12/juan-oramas-released-scouting-report.html

He seemed to be putting up some good numbers prior to the 2012 season. The next year he didn't pitch much after the surgery, so last year was his first chance to really show what he could do after the operation. It's so hard to evaluate pitchers from the Texas league or PCL. He pitched well in 4 AA starts, but that 5.61 ERA is high, even for the PCL. I think he might have a shot as a reliever, maybe he improves with another year of recovery post TJ. I like Rob Rasmussen better.

Juan Oramas was signed late in November 2006 (age 16) as an IFA. It wasn't until 2010 before he entered MiLB at Fort Wayne (A). I think he pitched well since he was signed, but he might have been overlooked. As is usually the case, he was rushed through the System. He pitched well until 3.2 IP in AAA where he struggled and was returned to AA.

On June 5th, 2012, he had Tommy John Surgery. I have always believed 16 - 24 months, +/- 4 months, as recovery period. Everyone recovers differently so making judgements on performance before 24 months are up is not totally accurate. I think it's foolish.

I don't know the competence of the Padres systems, but it seems like it's not that good. Of course, it's possible the sale of the Padres, August 28th, 2012, might have something to do with it. He started pitching in AA, early June, 2013, just 12 months after surgery. He pitched better since TJ than should be expected that early. He started 2014 in AAA.

I think we did very well here and that San Diego made a mistake. But then again, new GM may not have valued him the same way.

EE for Votto? No way on earth with their contracts.
Encarnacion: signed for 2015 $10 mil, option for 2016 (club) $10 mil - very cheap
Votto: Signed for 2015-2023 plus club option for 2024 ($7 mil buyout or $20 mil to play) for $14/20/22 then $25 per year

Votto is entering his age 31 season and is signed though age 39 (40 is option) and played just 62 games last year.  I'd LOVE to have him here but that contract is a potential disaster.  Unless Cincinnati would pick up a chunk of it or find some other way to compensate I don't see Votto as trade bait for EE. 

FYI: EE is entering his age 32 season and has 3 straight years of 3+ WAR.  Votto has a 1.9 for last year after 4 straight 5+ years.  Votto is the better player but contract wise that is just way too much. 

Now, what could work to get Votto here?  That is a LOT tougher.  The Jays would need to clear some payroll (Navarro, Romero to make 2015 a break even year) but even adding in Reyes ($22 per for 2015-17) and you'd still be taking on a LOT of risk and Cincinnati wouldn't want Reyes at this stage (they are rebuilding) unless it was to flip for someone else.  But then the Jays would be without a shortstop. 

Unless AA decides his job is in deep danger and is willing to risk the payroll going forward for a long, long time I don't see Votto coming for any package.  Votto probably will provide value for the term of his contract but the risk factor is so high I just don't see it making any sense for nothing, let alone for someone as valuable as Encarnacion.

agreed. Votto makes no sense for the Jaya?

wonder who the mystery team is that won the bidding for Jung-Ho Kang?

John, I beg to differ.
Votto for anyone but prospects is a no-go. However, if Rogers is on board with his acquisition then that's different. If you figure Votto to be equal to or better than Kemp, then $15.0 MM per year is a fair value. Cincinnati needs to send $71.0 MM to balance it out.

As to who should go, I'd move Norris, Osuna, add Smoak, and two under top 30's prospects.

There are already a few Internet rumors that the Jays won the bidding for Kang -- but be very wary, these are extremely unreliable rumors from little-known people so far.  Worth monitoring the situation, but don't get too excited just yet.  We do know that the Padres and Mets, both of whom were rumored to be considering Kang, apparently did not submit a bid for him in the end.

In any event, as discussed with the Toritani negotiations (which are confirmed by Anthopoulos as negotiations, but not a contract yet), I do like the idea of an international acquisition for a potential 2B upgrade -- whether the acquisition is Japanese or Korean or whatever, as long as it's an upgrade.

Kang's numbers in the Korean league in 2014 were incredible.  Even if the Korean league is roughly on a par with AA-level baseball in North America, he could be a good acquisition.  Total cost, including the posting fee, could be around $17-million for two years.

The rumour for Kang seems to come from one guy, who claims he has a friend in Korean baseball who says the Jays won the bid. Very, very premature at this point to think it's true. But between him and Toritani it'd be nice if the Jays picked someone up who gives them another legit option for 2B.

Okay, so now Mike Wilner is tweeting that the Jays did NOT win the bidding for Kang -- if they even bid for him.  So, back to the Toritani rumor as the more likely one.  At least with Toritani we know that Anthopoulos has confirmed his serious interest in the guy, and he's confirmed that he has talked to Boras about him.

agree that this is premature...but if so...should put to rest suggestions that money is not available to Jays....

On June 5th, 2012, he had Tommy John Surgery. I have always believed 16 - 24 months, +/- 4 months, as recovery period.

Long story short, Orasmas shall have recovered by June 5th, 2012 + 16-24 months = June 5th - October 5th 2014. So the Jays shall know how well Oramas at his full strength is during 2015 spring training.

Wilner now retracting on Kang.

No, he's not retracting.  He's being quite clear that the Jays didn't win the bidding.  He says he doesn't know if the Jays bid for Kang, but -- regardless of whether they bid or not -- they didn't get him. 

That's reasonable enough.  He checked with his Jays sources, asked them if they Jays got Kang, and was told that they didn't get him.  He didn't ask them whether the Jays bid, he only asked them whether the Jays won.   They didn't get him.  So that's not a retraction at all.

Looking a little more closely at Kang's amazing statistics and some scouting reports on him, I kind of wish the Jays had indeed won the bidding for him....   Certainly it would be a gamble, but the money isn't prohibitive and his upside would seem to be worth the gamble.  Unfortunately they didn't win, and maybe didn't even bid.

Apparently A.A. values the 16 year old kids he's going to sign on July 2nd (IFAs) more than a 27 year old 'AA' (KBO) infielder. Money is not unlimited, so choices must be made.

I don't know about Kang. He's got a crazy leg kick at the plate that seems totally unworkable to my amateur eye in MLB. And there's mucho questions about his defense. and korean stats are worse than useless.

I'd rather that gamble on that Toritani guy.

[quote]He seemed to be putting up some good numbers prior to the 2012 season. The next year he didn't pitch much after the surgery, so last year was his first chance to really show what he could do after the operation. It's so hard to evaluate pitchers from the Texas league or PCL. He pitched well in 4 AA starts, but that 5.61 ERA is high, even for the PCL. I think he might have a shot as a reliever, maybe he improves with another year of recovery post TJ. I like Rob Rasmussen better.[/quote]

nothing in that report really bugs me. the PCL and the surgery comeback make last seasons stats much less important than usual, and he had decent peripherals even last year as well, following up on pretty dominant stuff in years prior. He's clearly not a power arm, and more of a deception lefty, but that could easily turn into a good reliever. No guarantes of course but giving up on a guy after one mediocre season in the pcl coming back from TJ surgery is probably a bad move.

and the Rasmussen preference doesn't faze me either - I like Rasmussen quite a bit, and possibly better too. Rasmussen throws legit heat, and dominated in his first shot at bullpen duty last year. Thing is, Oramas' stats as an SP were much better than Rasmussen's stats as an SP, which is a good sign.

[quote]Kang's numbers in the Korean league in 2014 were incredible. Even if the Korean league is roughly on a par with AA-level baseball in North America[/quote]

not sure that's actually true.

Age 25: 519pa, 13.7bb%, 15.0k%, .973ops
Age 26: 532pa, 12.8bb%, 20.5k%, .876ops
Age 27: 501pa, 13.6bb%, 21.2k%, 1.198ops

Let's look at some vet AA lines the last few years (noting of course that when guys hit this well in AA they're moved up to AAA pretty quickly):

K.Roller (26): 90pa, 10.0bb%, 23.3k%, 1.263ops
W.Ramirez (26): 51pa, 3.9bb%

http://andrewstoeten.com/
On this site, Blue Jays won Jung Ho Kang bidding.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/nexen-expected-to-accept-jung-ho-kang-posting-fee-from-unknown-mlb-team.html
On this site, Blue Jays did not win Jung Ho Kang bidding.

This will be interesting.

It would be more believable if he said we were signing Toritani when we heard we'd won the Kang bidding.

Toronto isn't short on candidates, but the overall level of talent is certainly in question and that's why the addition of at least two more relievers remains a top priority.

This comment leads to a discussion of two beliefs:
1) A pitcher has a talent ceiling, and for what it is worth, a hitter also has. So the farm system can only develop at best to full talent use by the athlete.
2) The athlete's talent can be raised as a pitcher, who has been unsuccessful in pitch velocity but good in batter-deceptive body movement, learns to be a knuckleball pitcher or his body is better conditioned with new coaching so that he discovers increased pitch velocity.

Am I on the correct thinking tracks ?

That's a very good point. Probably not. That's a confusing statement.

A pitcher is controlled by how fast are his pitches, how good are his pitches and how repeatable his stuff is. Movement in his pitches and change of speeds between and with pitches help. But having a ceiling, that's nonsense. Too many things can make a pitcher better, such as weather, his catcher and the umpire, everything that's beyond his control. Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens were top Pitchers who's stuff was extremely different. Batters are similar in that they can develop to the limits of their talent and their ability. Success matters. But so much can improve performance. Certain performance levels do not play well at other positions. Outside factors can change performance, but not talent nor ability.

An athlete can only develop to the limits of his talent and his ability. Only two things can change that. Things beyond his control can improve his performance, not his talent nor his ability. Totally changing almost everything an athlete does can improve his performance, not his talent nor his ability.

An athlete can be successful yet not be pushing the limits of his talent or ability, so he can improve. But not all athletes are equal, some will always be better.

Getting back to the Bullpen, it's very simple. They were not good enough, they need to be better. Wording doesn't matter as much here as intent of message, the above wording just confuses the message. The Bullpen was not good enough, those who pitched very well will return, while those who didn't are gone. The decision is to be made after the new Acquisitions are added. Those pitchers who didn't pitch very well, but who didn't pitch poorly enough to go will compete for the remaining spots. Going strictly in-house has been done before and isn't good enough and sometimes change is made to be different. It doesn't have to be better, just different.

In Korea in 2014:
Jung-Ho Kang: 356/459/739
Eric Thames: 343/422/688

Thames' career MLB numbers: 250/296/431, 96 OPS+.

While hardly a scientific conversion scheme, would the Jays be interested in a second baseman who hit like that? If so, what would he be worth?

yeah, 96ops+ would work if it came with good D.

The Jays have Navarro as a moveable asset. For all that A.A. has been saying, "keeping him makes this team better", he really doesn't have a place.

Russell Martin will catch basically 120-130 games, which leaves roughly 32-42 games for the Backup Catcher. R.A. Dickey makes around 33-34 starts, which if Martin can catch the Knuckleball, makes Thole expendable. If not, which is more likely, you'll need to keep Josh Thole.

Justin Smoak will play a lot of First Base (better defender), 120-130 games and possibly some DH time. If he develops like the Jays think he can, he might play more.

Edwin Encarnacion will play around 30-40 games at First when Smoak isn't there, and then play most of his time at DH for as many games as he wants.

Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista will had occasional DH ABs over the course of the year to keep them fresher/healthier.

If anyone listens to this team, especially when A.A. speaks, they know Dioner Navarro won't get many bats if he stays. A.A. must trade him, which depresses his value. I don't know what A.A. was looking for in a Trade, but so far it's more than anyone wants to trade. I'd like to think Navarro, or what you can get for him, plus what A.A. feels comfortable moving from this team should acquire a very good outfielder. Then signing one more and A.A.'s season is basically done. Anything else is just tweaking/upgrades.

In view of our debates on Oramas and Lopez, I decided to look briefly at three other mystery pitchers on the Jays 40-man roster: Bo Schultz, Cory Burns and Colt Hynes. Could any of them be a candidate for the bullpen in 2015?  They're all 27 to 29 years old, acquired by the Jays from August to October of 2014, and lacking any major-league success in their careers so far.  It's difficult to evaluate them statistically because all of them have been pitching recently in the PCL, which can inflate a pitcher's numbers terribly.  Of the three, however, I am intrigued by Hynes.  He is a LHP who had relatively decent numbers in 2013-14 in the PCL, and also seemed to look good in 8.2 innings for Buffalo after the Jays acquired him.  In 249 innings at the AAA level (mostly in the PCL), he's shown pretty good control, with a BB/9 of 1.8 and a SO/9 of 6.5.  Has anyone seen any scouting reports on him?

There are a lot of valuable players still looking for a home. Ex Jays like Janssen, Rasmus and McGowan. There are still many from other teams that are like them.

Navarro will move IMO. Someone will want him. He is also very valuable insurance if a stalwart catcher like R Martin, Y Molina or B Posey go down. Which certainly can happen.

This off season is far from cooling down. Boston, LAD & SD have a glut of Outfielders. Everyone knows this. This category of players will soon be picked up as the off season winds down in January. Room on 40 man rosters will have to be created, which means deletions for quite a few teams.

So if Boston wants to add for Example C Janssen and are at the 40 man limit, someone will have to come off. Probably fringe guys like we have on our 40 man roster.

Lets see what happens.

4 positions in the pen are guaranteed. We know this, Cecil, Loup, Estrada(?) & Redmond. I expect at least 1 high quality/established RP to be added, even if it is Sanchez.
What ever is left from 7 can be very variable. Meaning Delabar vs Drabek, Drabek has no options left, not sure about Delabar. That can be an important 1 or 2 bullpen slots.
Roles are important, 1 inning and up to 3 good innings. A good offense can overcome a bad pitching day from the starter and the in coming pen. Well maybe.

I believe that Delabar has remaining options.

My apologies everyone, this:
plus what A.A. feels comfortable moving from this team should acquire a very good outfielder.
should read:
plus what A.A. feels comfortable moving from this team should acquire a very good reliever.

Brett Cecil is a Late Inning LHP, never ever our closer. Aaron Loup is First-In/Mid-Late Inning LHP. Marco Estrada is Long Relief/Spot Start RHP. Those are the only guaranteed Pitcher spots in the Bullpen.

Contrary to some people's belief, I think we need two power arms (RHP) for Late Innings/Closer. If one of these spots is filled by Aaron Sanchez, it should only be if the Starting Pitcher replacing him in the Rotation is better than him.

We need another Aaron Loup type, but a RHP for First-In/Mid-Late Innings. Perhaps even another power arm here.

Ideally this (6-man Bullpen) should be enough with a good enough Rotation. But with issues that occur now with Starters make carrying a seventh Reliever necessary. It would be nice if a LHP Long Relief/Spot Start could be acquired.

I don't know what Todd Redmond is, nor do I know if Steve Delabar is all the way back. Spring Training is much too late to acquire what you need, better to acquire it now and have too much. Steve Delabar has options left so that helps immensely. Kyle Drabek had real good stuff but always had control issues. Now that he's in the bullpen, he might be better, but nothing to be sure about.

As long as the Bullpen can pitch 2.0-3.0 innings without give up more than one run, the Jays will win a lot of games. With a good Start, you should win almost all those games. With just a decent Start, you should win most of those games. With a bad Start, you should still win some of those games.

Why? The Defense on this team is much better. With Martin catching and more experience, the Starters should be better. The Offense looks to be better, but it might not be done. Without a good Bullpen, none of this matters.

[quote]The Jays have Navarro as a moveable asset. For all that A.A. has been saying, "keeping him makes this team better", he really doesn't have a place. [/quote]

i disagree with this.

navarro catching for 40 games is a huge upgrade over thole catching for 40gms. huge.

and navarro's bat is good enough from either side to be a very valuable pinch hitter and even starter - yep, even as a dh. he projects as league average vRHP and well above vLHP.

and his salary is more than fine for a key bench role.

i have no issue whatsoever in keeping him on the team, and would only trade him for a legit quality player in return. if we trade him for some fungible reliever we lose that trade pretty easily.

in fact, i'm so tired of the absolutely useless backup catchers we've had for the last 5+yrs that i kinda want to keep navarro unless we get an offer we can't refuse.

backup catchers play a lot, and it would be nice to have a legit bat in that playing time for once.

career as RP:

in the bullpen picture:

LH B.Cecil (28): 125.1ip, 3.01era, 2.67fip, 2.95xfip
LH A.Loup (27): 168.2ip, 2.77era, 3.27fip, 3.52xfip
RH W.Lopez (31): 296.2ip, 3.40era, 3.34fip, 3.25xfip
RH S.Delabar (31): 157.1ip, 3.72era, 3.86fip, 3.63xfip
RH M.Estrada (30): 130.0ip, 4.29era, 3.82fip, 3.91xfip
RH T.Redmond (30): 82.2ip, 3.27era, 3.68fip, 4.52xfip
RH C.Jenkins (27): 68.1ip, 3.03era, 4.07fip, 4.23xfip
RH L.Hendriks (26): 17.2ip, 5.60era, 3.42fip, 3.10xfip
LH R.Rasmussen (26): 11.1ip, 3.18era, 4.37fip, 4.42xfip


probably in AAA:

RH A.Sanchez (22): 33.0ip, 1.09era, 2.80fip, 3.00xfip
LH D.Norris (22): 3.1ip, 5.40era, 7.93fip, 5.52xfip
LH J.Francis (34): 30.1ip, 6.53era, 3.55fip, 3.65xfip
RH J.Stilson (24): --- (AAA: 81.1ip, 2.55era, 3.42fip)

not really in the picture:

RH G.Infante (27): 4.2ip, 0.00era, 3.51fip, 5.08xfip
RH B.Schultz (29): 8.0ip, 7.88era, 3.88fip, 3.49xfip
RH C.Burns (27): 29.1ip, 4.60era, 4.34fip, 5.13xfip
RH B.Korecky (35): 28.0ip, 7.39era, 5.23fip, 5.34xfip
LH C.Hynes (30): 17.0ip, 9.00era, 5.58fip, 5.05xfip
RH K.Drabek (27): 11.1ip, 7.15era, 5.53fip, 4.69xfip

Uglyone, could you elaborate on your analysis of the relief pitchers and where they should be pitching in 2015?  it's not sufficient to cite their major-league numbers as evidence, since many of these pitchers have only 10 or 20 innings as a major-league reliever, and you cannot assess them on the basis of 10 or 20 innings.  Presumably you're basing your conclusions on the evidence of their minor-league records, or scouting reports, or something.   I'd be interested in your explanation.

wasn't really drawing any conclusions. other than maybe any guy that costs us anything real is hopefully a solid step up from those guys.

i do like that lopez pickup, though.

The Jays have Navarro as a moveable asset. For all that A.A. has been saying, "keeping him makes this team better", he really doesn't have a place.

Russell Martin will catch basically 120-130 games, which leaves roughly 32-42 games for the Backup Catcher. R.A. Dickey makes around 33-34 starts, which if Martin can catch the Knuckleball, makes Thole expendable. If not, which is more likely, you'll need to keep Josh Thole.

backup catchers play a lot, and it would be nice to have a legit bat in that playing time for once.

In fairness of free agent catchers looking for work, numbers of available backup catchers are available, say John Baker. However Navarro is valuable in himself that his hitting is legit. To evaluate Navarro`s value to the Jays, will trading him bring upgrades and advantage to this team, say a starting 2B ? My memory seems to indicate me that Shi Davidi mentioned in tweets that trading Navarro to the Cubs for Luis Valbuena. IMO Valbuena can start mostly 2B and part time 3B; Izturis and Tolleson can then advance in performance and contribute as bench players.

In view of our debates on Oramas and Lopez, I decided to look briefly at three other mystery pitchers on the Jays 40-man roster: Bo Schultz, Cory Burns and Colt Hynes.

i do like that lopez pickup, though.

Based on my previous calculation on Lopez' 3.22 ERA that hence compared him to Esmil Rogers, conversion multipliers to Buffalo from Reno for Bo Schultz, from Albuquerque for Colt Hynes, from Round Rock for Cory Burns are 0.67051, 0.6 and 0.8845316 respectively. Schultz, Hynes and Burns ERA's in Buffalo 2014 would accordingly be, based on my calculation, 4.860373 for 135 1/3 IP in Reno, 2.56 for 53 IP in Albuquerque, 7.0672269 for 32 2/3 IP in Round Rock. By comparing these three pitchers on calculated ERA's to Bisons' 2014 pitchers, just like what I had compared Rogers with Lopez, Schultz shall be compared to Hendriks or P. J. Walters, Hynes to Rogers and Burns to Rasmusson, Mils or Copeland. As ample discussions have been going on here for these Buffalo 2014 pitchers whom Schultz, Hynes and Burns are compared to, these Buffalo 2014 pitchers are not sure bet to make 2015 Jays' bullpen so I think predicting these three pitchers to make the 40-man roster NOW is pre-matured.

To look beyond the above observations in detail and at the bigger picture by looking at Hynes and Burns ERAs in reality that are lower than the above calculated ERA's in Buffalo, factors in Buffalo favors pitching that these factors, whatever they are, are encouraging to us fans that pitchers likely will improve in Buffalo after they are signed from the outside to Jays organization.

I love the early Christmas present.

Catcher: Antonio J Conception DOB 6/16/1997 has been signed by the Jays.

RHP : Jose Domingues DOB 2/21/1996 has been signed by the Jays.

As mentioned earlier OF Sam Buelens from Belgium DOB 12/27/1995 was signed by the Jays.

I still have room in my stocking.

got any info on those guys?

There was a good write up on Sam Buelens, I do not know how to link to it.
I know nothing on the others.

Those 3 were listed on the Dec Transactions and are about 2 weeks old. I check fairly often and missed this. I believe that they get posted late and the computer then sorts by date.

So I checked Nov transactions
OF Christian Peguero DOB 11/16/1995.
RHP Manuel Dominguez DOB 1/17/1994

Not a ton on those free agents...
Antonio Concepcion : 6'0" 190 lbs, from Panama, a catcher entering his age 18 season
Jose Dominguez : 6'2" 165 lbs, from Mexico, RHP turns 19 in February
Sam Buelens :5'11" 160 lbs, from Belgium turns 19 on the 27th

Of course, amateur free agents at this time of year are normally not the top prospects but ones who might have surprised or not been noticed for whatever reason earlier.

Here is a small write up on Buelens including a video.  Belgian Outfielder Sam Buelens signs with Toronto Blue Jays

In 2014 he played for the Borgerhout Squirrels who won their championship.  Played only 34 games but stole 31 bases (never caught). Was on the Belgian national team but had just 1 PA.

Thanks John.

Juan Meza was the top signing for the Jays 2014 class. $1.6 mil signing bonus. Our 2014 total signing pool is $2,852,900.
You never know who will become good. H Alvarez is good and hopefully J Labourt will also be good. They are cheap signings. Balbino F & S Nessy did not develop as hoped they were expensive.

Well hit & miss. So for me I always look for the larger quantity that will be signed late, ie until March.There is something spectacular about a skinny & short kid growing and adding to their ability. The bonus numbers are not announced for these late signings, but I think that every $ is counted against the bonus pool, but not sure.

Dioner Navarro is under contract at $5.0 MM for one year. If for any reason, he stays with the team, he's going to be lucky to get 200 AB, if that many. Last year he was able to show everyone he's a good Starting Catcher with his 481 quality AB.

If he's traded, he has a chance of being a Starting Catcher again, with a chance at earning a multi-year contract worth significant money. If however, he's not a Starting Catcher next year, the best he'll get is a one year deal worth $1.0 MM-$1.5 MM as a backup. I know what's fair, despite how good he makes this team,

Signing above $300 K count against the 'Cap', while those not above don't.

our bench had 1961 plate appearances last year. an average of 490pa per bench slot.

If for any reason, [Navarro] stays with the team, he's going to be lucky to get 200 AB, if that many. Last year he was able to show everyone he's a good Starting Catcher with his 481 quality AB. [...] If however, he's not a Starting Catcher next year, the best he'll get is a one year deal worth $1.0 MM-$1.5 MM as a backup. I know what's fair, despite how good he makes this team.

Talking about backup, another backup, who had been a starter, George Kottaras played very sparingly. By October, starting Kottaras would not hurt Jays' slim postseason chance any way. Why not evaluate him back then ? If he had been so with Navarrao being traded, could Kottaras, who had caught Tim Wakefield's knuckleball, now be the back up catcher ? Kottaras could caught Dickey's knuckleball, methinks.

I've made the same points about Navarro many times uglyone, but allow me to reiterate another one you didn't mention - at this point, Navarro is still our best option vs. RHP at the DH spot, unless you specifically are looking to keep Encarnacion off his feet. Smoak at 1m is a good gamble for the Jays, but the offensive expectations from him should not be higher than you would expect from Navarro.

It's a lot easier to keep Martin fresh and healthy all season when you can turn to Navarro to give him a day off and not be forced to only rest Martin when Dickey starts.

Can a catcher like Kottaras fills Navarro's role ?

Why not evaluate him [Kottaras] back then ?

Kottaras, now 31, has bounced around awhile. There is very little evaluation left to do. Offensively, he's Mickey Tettleton lite (which is definitely no slight). Defensively, his reputation is quite poor.

I always wondered why nobody went out of their way to give Kottaras some inexpensive, DH at-bats over the years, to see how his bat would play freed up from catching duties. I would have thought someone like Billy Beane would have been able to look past the batting average.

If Navarro (or Martin) can catch Dickey, you would obviously prefer to have him on the roster than Thole. Navarro catches 35-50 games, DHs occasionally and gets some pinch-hitting. He'd probably get 250-300 PAs and would be quite useful.

If not, he is in the role of 3rd catcher/LH DH. For his career, he's batted .250/.306/.354 from the left side.  He's been somewhat better than that over the last 3 years, but he definitely hits better from the right side.  You really don't want a hitter with that kind of split getting significant time in that role.  He would mostly be around as injury insurance for Martin and as an occasional LH PH/DH.  It is hard to justify that role if one is going with a 7 man pen (your bench then consists of 2 catchers, 1 infielder, 1 outfielder).

92-93 i agree with you for the most part, except that i think Valencia (135wrc+ 2014, 138wrc+ career) is our best bet vLHP, especially since i think he'll likely be a plus defensive 1B.

to be honest, i'm more worried about smoak. he could blow up completely like he did last year, in which case Navarro's league average line vRHP the last few years will come in handy.

i have zero doubt martin can handle the knuckleball better than thole. he's an outright elite defensive catcher in every facet of the position.

last 3yrs

vRHP

Smoak: 864pa, 102wrc+
Navarro: 626pa, 101wrc+
Valencia: 333pa, 44wrc+

vLHP

Navarro: 233pa, 135wrc+
Valencia: 282pa, 134wrc+
Smoak: 468pa, 79wrc+

but with smoak coming off a disaster season of 78wrc+ with no platoon split i don't have a ton of confidence in his numbers there.

i mean if navarro could field 1B i'd probably be leaning towards him starting there even over a platoon of the other two, given the downsides to platoons.

(p.s. colabello and barton both have awful numbers in both splits)

I was only talking up Navarro vs. RHP (and vs. Smoak) - Valencia has clearly handled LHP better over the last few seasons, and is a better option vs. LHP if he's on the roster.

I happen to like Valencia a lot, it just seems he's the type of player that managers like that inevitably get too much playing time vs. RHP, like Reed Johnson used to.

I know Thole is not popular here but c'mon people....a little objectivity. He is far better than Kottaras (who is not MLB talent) and in fact his numbers....248 BA and .320 OBP suggest he is better than the offensive mean for back up catchers. As for Navarro, I think he is ok but I agree that he is not needed and is, in fact, in the way. I think they want to give Smoak a real opportunity at 1b. In this scenario, EE is DH most of the time and thus few at bats for Navarro. I expect him to be traded.

A.A.'s insistence in trading for Relievers is wrong.

He traded 1B Adam Lind, as he needed to (or buy out his option). His words: "only two Teams were interested, and one team would take the player and his full salary but give nothing back." So getting back as good as he did is huge.

He traded C Santiago Nessy for Liam Hendricks, which is a huge steal as Nessy was no longer necessary in the system. This was a very good gain as he's really good in AAA and might figure it out yet.

He traded CF Anthony Gose (our third best CF) for Devon Travis who was basically Detroit's third best 2B. Considering we had nothing much in our system, this was a big gain.

He traded 3B Brett Lawrie, LHP Sean Nolin, RHP Kendall Graveman and SS Franklin Baretto for 3B Josh Donaldson (players of this caliber are never ever traded this soon), which is a huge deal.

He traded LHP J.A. Happ for OF Michael Saunders, which I consider another big upgrade.

As was seen in the Rule 5 Draft, no one wanted anyone in our system. There was a lot of talent available but it wasn't wanted. So A.A. wants to make another trade after moving every possible asset, in any way, shape or form: C, 1B, SS, 3B, CF, 1 RHP, 2 LHP. The main problem there is that he's only got C Dioner Navarro left as a top asset, and that's not enough.

while Navarro is indeed an asset to be dealt, I fully expect AA to deal a couple of decent prospects....I imagine that Norris, Osuna, Castro, Alford and Urena are probably safe but a couple of others could go. As the team seems set to go nuts with int'l signings in July, the system can quickly be replenished...and imo it is sufficiently deep even without that.

i mean if navarro could field 1B i'd probably be leaning towards him starting there even over a platoon of the other two, given the downsides to platoons.

I know the bar for defense at 1B is low and difficult to quantify, but I personally don't think Navarro is capable of playing a competent 1B at this point in his career even on a platoon basis, especially as the long side of a RHP/LHH platoon.

Navarro is going to have no range at 1B and has no experience at the position. We weren't happy with Lind or EE's defence at first last year. Lind was an OF in the minors, but did play 1B in college before being moved there in the majors. EE had little experience at 1B but at one point had enough athleticism to play 3B and was moved off due to an erratic arm.

Navarro has no MLB experience at first and only 2 minor league game in his career at the position. Expecting him to learn at the MLB at his age and with his tools seems asking for tragedy.

If you are not willing to play Smoak at first, then you'd be better better off just living with EE's defense vs RHP and DHing your best bat, which may in turn be Navarro.

A DH who is a league average hitter and a slow runner is a replacement level player (because of the positional adjustment).  That would be Billy Butler or Adam Dunn, 2014.   If you have no choice, so be it, but you're better off to spend a few bucks and get somebody who hits like Matt Joyce or Josh Willingham did last year. 

oh i agree - navarro can't play 1B.

i was trying to say that the only reason i wouldn't want navarro in the starting lineup iver a smoak/valencia platoon is because he would have to DH, which would force EE back onto the field.

Smoak may surprise us and a platoon might not be necessary....but it's good to know we can go that route if necessary. Even though Valencia is originally a 3b, my eye tells me that he is better defensively at first. I don't like him at 3rd.

After reading this:
http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/104649910/gm-brian-cashman-pushes-yankees-forward-with-youth-movement

I found this comment interesting, which might be guiding A.A.:
...They've gradually come to believe that if a player has the talent to play in the big leagues, he'll survive being challenged along the way...

That probably means Dalton Pompey at CF and Devon Travis at 2B.

I found this comment interesting, which might be guiding A.A.:
...They've gradually come to believe that if a player has the talent to play in the big leagues, he'll survive being challenged along the way...

Don't know if guys like OF Brian Bogusevic interesting to AA; he had showed he is capable to play part time OF. With Pompey and possibly Carrera going for CF, Bogu could also be useful. His last MLB season in 2013 was 113 OPS+, 0.8 oWAR

An interesting site I just found linked though FanGraphs - http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-toronto-blue-jays/ lists all Jay transactions and projected lineup with a batch of other details.  A nice addition to the many good sites out there.

[Listing] all Jay transactions and projected lineup with a batch of other details [is] [a] nice addition to the many good sites out there.

Can the Batter's Box create a page where these information are retrievable by viewers' clicks of the computer mouse ?

Tell me about Preston Guilmet. Jays claimed him on waivers.

K/BB >5 in 112 career IP at AAA is a promising start.

Guilmet's 10 major-league innings with Baltimore last year were excellent.  (Not reflected in his ERA, but reflected in his xFIP and WHIP.)   He's a 27-year-old soft-tossing RHP with an unconventional over-the-top delivery.  His fastball is only in the low 90s but he has a good splitter and slider.  He's a control pitcher with few walks and a high K ratio.  He's been in the majors for brief stints in 2013 and 2014 but might still have an option year remaining.  A useful acquisition, I think.

It's a small sample, but Guilmet seems to have trouble working out of the stretch at the major league level at least.  He has about 35 PAs with runners on and with no one on.  With no one on, he has a 9/3 K/W and a .161/.235/.290 slash.  With runners on, his K/W is 4/2 and his slash is .324/.359/.551.  A similar but less extreme pattern was true in the high minors from 2012-2014.

And now Scott Barnesoff the Rangers

i like guilmet.

great numbers, just lacks velocity (struggles to hit 90 on the gun) so may or may not be able to ever hack it in mlb. reminds me of the guy we had in aaa the last couple of years......mickey storey.

A.A. makes waiver claims while useful piece slip away. Running out of money already?

I'm hearing faint murmurs about nothing that has a source of consequence. It's saying the Jays are after a Starter, an expensive one. I don't believe this so I'm going to ignore it for now. It doesn't make any sense doing it now. It might give insight into the success of A.A.'s Reliever quest.

Trying to see who AA missed out on that is valuable ....

• Jason Grilli : signed 2 year deal + club option, value of $8 mil, entering age 38 season, 3.5 BB/9 last year 3.8 lifetime, 9.5 K/9 last year, 8.5 lifetime.  Had a killer year in 2013 (1.97 FIP, ASG, 13.3 K/9 2.3 BB/9 by far his best) but at his age I sure wouldn't be counting on him continuing those good numbers.  Catches me as a 'nice to have' but at $4 mil a year at that age and getting less than an IP per game I'd be nervous.  FanGraphs has him at 0.3 WAR for last year, projects just 0.1 for 2015.
  
• Tim Stauffer : signed 1 year deal $2.2 mil, good price, 9.4 K/9 3.2 BB/9 is nice, last 2 years mainly a reliever after years as a starter 2.9 vs 8.8 BB-K, 3.30 FIP.  Now this guy would've been nice as he can spot start and with just a 1 year deal at $2.2 is a bargain one would think.  Strange thing is his bWAR is 0 for last year and has never been over 0.2, FanGraphs has him at 0.4 for last year and projects just 0.1 for 2015 so maybe not such a great deal.

That is all I noticed doing a quick check but there are probably others.  Still, most guys now are fairly 'meh' - back end guys or older players who you have to put question marks next to.

If I was running a team I'd probably be hunting up the best arms regardless of results so far and signing to AAA deals with invites hoping that someone catches fire as someone always does.  Trick is figuring out who that someone is.

Barnes looks more like a AAA guy who might get a look or two in the Jays bullpen in case of injuries, but I like Guilmet a lot. He put up really good numbers in the minors 4 years in a row as he spent a year each in A, A+, AA, and AAA from 2010 to 2013. Last year wasn't quite as good, but still decent. Career K/BB ratio in the minors looks terrific, at just over 5 to 1. He's only 27. I think he's definitely in the mix for a 2015 bullpen spot. If he has a problem with pitching from the stretch, maybe that's something that can be improved with a mechanical adjustment. Very nice freebie pick up.

I agree, dan, that difficulty pitching from the stretch might be more easily fixable than other pitching issues, and that Guilmet is good freebie pickup.

Heard this morning that Papelbon may be a target for the Jays. He doesn't strike out as many as he used to, but he's still an effective pitcher, coming off an excellent 2014 season, with a WHIP of 0.905 and 39 saves/ 4 blown saves. He's got 1 year left on his contract at $13 million, plus an option that vests for 100 games finished in 2014-2015, also for $13 million. He had 52 GF in 2014, so he needs 48 this year. The talk was a deal would be for prospects, but no names were mentioned. No idea if that price tag will fit in the budget.

For the Phillies, the primary motive for trading Papelbon would be to get rid of his salary and the potential $26-million payroll commitment.  So the rumors were also suggesting that the Phillies might even cover some of his salary, in some scenarios, depending on the trade return.  For Anthopoulos, that's certainly a trade that's very much worth exploring.

I've felt Papelbon might be a good fit for awhile.  He would love a shot to be back in the AL East, 'proven closer' magic dust on him would give the players (and media) a boost, Philly would probably pay a chunk of his salary (maybe a way to get rid of that Romero contract), and the commitment isn't too long (1 or 2 years depending on health/effectiveness).

Wonder if it could include Chase Utley... he is getting older and has a $10mil deal this year, $15 per for the next 3 if healthy (500 PA qualifies him for each) but also has full trade protection (10 & 5 guy).  That would solve 2B and closer and end the winter other than minor housekeeping I suspect.

Been out of town for a few days and trying to make sense of some of the latest moves.  Interesting to watch the new GM in SD aggressively stockpile assets, but not sure if it's a good strategy or not.  They have a real surplus of talented OFs, s shortage in the middle IF and some major defensive deficiencies.  Obviously there are more moves to come, but are all these transactions good for the team? 

Also, is it safe to say that the lack of MLB relievers on the Jays roster means that AA plans to fill out the back end of the pen with AAAA guys?  Not a bad strategy if he can entice some of the better minor league free agents with a real opportunity to make a contending team.  signings / waiver claims Guilmet, Albers, Lopez, hendricks, Oramas, and holdovers rasmussen, tepera, mcfarland, Burns, gregory infante, among others - tons of interesting names, no idea if any of these guys can contribute for the big league team next year. 

Ruben Amaro's reputation as a trading partner lately has been that he's very unreasonable and not in tune with the current marketplace, which fits with his club's inactivity the last couple of seasons despite it being obvious they needed to retool. From Toronto's perspective you'd think the trade needs to start with Romero going the other way, because I doubt AA likes the idea of giving up assets to pay Papelbon 2/26m. Amaro would probably want one of Toronto's top young arms on top of Romero for Papelbon. If you are trading for Papelbon you have to assume 2016's option will vest, because he only needs to finish 48 games to get there.

Agreed that Paplebon is appealing, and that Romero could balance the salary out somewhat.  Paplebon's option would likely vest, so salary relief of some kind is pretty important, unless the Phillies want to give him away for a marginal return -doubtful. 

But I don't agree that it would take a top arm to make it happen - Smoral is probably the best pitching prospect I'd be okay with.  A quality over quantity type move could land Paplebon, and we certainly have quality pitching depth. 

Has Ruben Amaro ever given out a contract without some combination of a vesting option, no-trade clause, and/or opt-out? If I was a high school or college player with eyes towards the big leagues, I'd be praying to get drafted by Philly.

I wouldn't give up much for Papelbon. Romero and a decent prospect is about as far as I'd go. If he didn't have the easily attainable option for 2016, I'd be more for it, but that 2nd year really brings his value down.

So what would you give up for Zobrist? His 2015 salary is $7.5M after which time he becomes a FA.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/tampa-bay-rays-ben-zobrist-trade-free-agent-after-2015-mets-nationals-mariners-giants-cubs-122314

Morosi writes in this article that he is convinced that Tampa is going to move him before the season starts. He mentions that Zobrist and his 5.7 wins above replacement in 2014 (via Fangraphs) is the most of any remaining FA's or readily available trade candidates.

Would you deal Norris for him? Personally I wouldn't given Zobrist is a FA after this year. Assuming no other team would give up a Grade A prospect for one year of Zobrist then what from our roster would it take?

If the new brain trust in Tamba would consider Roberto Osuna then I am all for it. Now if they instead asked for Pentecost or Hoffman I would be less open to making a move although more so on Pentecost than Hoffman.

Matt Smoral is exactly the type of prospect arm I was thinking would be needed to add to Romero to acquire Papelbon. I thought it was a given that Hutchison-Stroman-Sanchez-Norris were off the table.

I would definitely deal Norris+ for Zobrist. Zobrist is a 5-6 win player making 7.5m who will bring you back a first round pick barring a major injury - the price should be very high for all that value. AA hasn't made a significant move within the AL East, though, so I doubt an acquisition of Zobrist is realistic. What a fit he'd be for this roster.

"....that 2nd year really brings his value down....."

Although it would protect the Jays from the nightmare scenario of a career-ending injury, as long as it isn't at the end of the season.  In fact, it protects the Jays from any kind of serious injury that knocks Papelbon out for a couple months.  If they don't get 5 good months from him, they don't owe him anything for the following season.

On the other hand, it would put the Jays into a very awkward position if he doesn't get injured but just pitches a little worse than another Jays reliever -- Sanchez or Cecil, let's say.  The Jays can't demote him to a set-up role without sparking a huge rebellion or morale crisis from him. What kind of verbal agreement or state of trust would they have to reach with him, so that he doesn't believe they are screwing him out of $13-million for 2016 if he still thinks he should be the closer and the Jays disagree?

Good point 92-93 about Jays getting at minimum a 1st round talent back (assuming they make the qualifying offer which obviously they would). That said you would real deal Norris + more for him?

Geez not me. That's maybe a deal I would consider if I felt the Jays were one player away. It's definitely a "lets win now" for years of possibly "oh my what a mistake". I think with Norris the probability is high it will be a mistake. If I were AA then maybe I could be convinced to offer Hoffman because he is further away with more uncertainty. That said, Tampa likely asks for Osuna as well. Maybe somewhere in between gets such a trade done.

My top FA target heading into the off-season was Martin, and Zobrist (perhaps with Loney thrown in) has been one of my top trade targets. I'm coming around to Smoak at $1m instead of Loney at 2/18.5, though.

It's hard to see a Zobrist deal happening. For one thing, TB has a good team that could challenge for the divisional title. It would be weird to see them put the Jays in the pole position in 2015.

Do the Jays really have much money left to spend? Given what has happened with the Canadian dollar in recent months, I wouldn't be surprised to see a payroll closer to $130m than $140-150m. And of course there's all that accounting stuff that Davidi explained recently, suggesting that the GM has less cash to work with than most people assumed. AA is now saying that the team should be in the top ten in payroll, "or close to it" - a telling qualification. "Close to" the top ten is also close to middle of the pack, n'est-ce pas?

Trading Sanchez for Zobrist, and then moving Norris to the #5 spot, would work for me, even though that would hurt the team's SP depth even further. He is projected to be a 3.8 WAR player next year (6.3, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.7 in the last four seasons respectively). Adding him to a lineup that already has Bautista, Donaldson, Martin, and Edwin would be incredible.

It's hard to tell what the Rays would want in return, but I'd guess it would be a lot.

Smoral, Labourt, Tirado, Ney are prospects AA may be willing to deal. The system can be easily replenished if Kiley McDaniel is right that the Jays will blow past their international signings limit this July.

zobrist? tall about a perfect fit.

which one of our top 5 prospects is most overrated? yep, probably sanchez.

though i imagine that travis would interest them in a zobrist trade.

Yes for Zobrist if he can be had for prospects outside of our top 6 - 8 core of elite /prospects.  I'd consider Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Pentacost, Hoffman, Osuna and Castro too high ceiling or too key to our chances next year, but longer term prospects like Nay, Smoral, Laibourt or Smith Jr. make tons of sense to me.

Travis would be fine as a key piece given that Zobrist replaces him, but TB has plenty of middle infielders ready to contribute, including former Bauxite prospect-crush Nick Franklin. 

In regards to Zobrist... the question is how much do the Jays value 2015 over 2016 and beyond.  He is entering his age 34 season, will want a 5 year deal to stay at $15+ per (maybe $20+) although a 3-4 year might get him to sign depending.  He knows this is his last big payday and odds are he'll push for every penny.  So trading for him is most likely a one year rental of a near MVP type player.  Add him at 2B and the Jays would have to be favorites in 2015 even without upgrading the pen or rotation or 1B.

What would he cost?  People here are being far, far too cheap.  It will be one of the big guns (Sanchez, Norris) plus another top 10 prospect and a 3rd prospect in the top 20 at least.  Remember, prospects fail as often as succeed.  Check "What to Expect From Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects ..." from 538 and you can see that the 20th best prospect in MLB in their first 7 years after being ranked that high averaged under 10 WAR total.  By around #10 you average under 10 WAR over the following 7 years (using 1990 to 2007 - the years 7 years can be added up from).  So even a top prospect like Sanchez (#32 is his highest ranking) is unlikely to produce much more over 7 years than you can expect from one year of Zobrist.  Now, it would be interesting to filter the data down to guys who reached AAA or cup of coffee in the majors before their ranking and see what that does, but odds are it won't skyrocket the results.

Bottom line?  If the Jays can get Zobrist for Sanchez or Norris plus another top 10 and a top 20 then go for it.  Chances at the playoffs are rare in the AL East it seems (20+ years) and the Jays have lots of pitching prospects and are planning on adding a stack more from the sounds of it via international.  Pitching prospects are useful chips in trades, and while it is scary to trade them it takes very little for them to flop.  Flags fly forever after all.

I dont know John - just look at the Upton deal - .one year of control, almost certain to yield a compensation draft pick, although he will earn 7 million more than Zobrist.   despite his sabremetric cred, I've gotta assume upton has more value on the trade market. 

He was worth Max Fried - baseball americas 53rd overall prospect coming into 2014 but coming off tommy John and several years away.  his ranking has certainly dropped.  Jace Peterson was a 1st round pick three years back and has hit well throughout his minor league career, but isn't a high upside guy and may not stick at SS, more of a utility profile. 2013 2nd rounder dustin peterson who hit well his first year and poorly this last season.  Mallix Smith is fast and profiles as a 4th OF, possibly better.

Aaron Northcroft went with upton as well, and he's a bullpen / low level prospect. 

Also, Merry Christmas everyone!

I don't mean to diminish Zobrist or overvalue our prospects, but I don't think we'd need to include a top 5/6 guy to get Zobrist. 

If we can get Zobrist for less than one of the Jays top 5 prospects then AA is a fool not to.  Prospects are a big crapshoot - you need many to get the few quality regulars or all-stars needed to contend.  That means someone like Roberto Osuna or Max Pentecost for example.  I'd hate to lose either as I feel good about both but Zobrist could be a game changer for the Jays in 2015 and odds are Osuna and Pentecost combined won't reach 5 WAR lifetime let alone in one season like Zobrist could.

Many look back at the big trades the Jays did a few years ago but so far I don't think any of the prospects traded have reached 1 WAR (I don't count Alvarez or Escobar as prospects).  Now, d'Arnaud looks likely to break out in 2015 but right now is at 0 bWAR lifetime (0.3 last year) although FanGraphs puts it at 1.6 so I guess someone did crack 1 WAR depending on methodology.  Syndergaard and Becerra are still not up.  That Dickey trade could end up looking really bad in a year or two, but that was for a Cy Young winner and getting him for 3-4 years (4th an option) who has produced 4.2 fWAR or 4.5 bWAR depending on which measure you prefer and has 1-2 years left.

Checking the Miami trade, I noticed Marisnick was listed at 1.4 bWAR for Houston in just 51 games despite a 88 OPS+...what the heck are they crediting him for on defense...to be Willie Mays & Devon White at once while mainly in RF?  Hechavarria was at 0.6 last year, DeSclafani reached the majors (sucked, but made it), Nicolino still in minors.

Reyes, Zobrist, Bautista, Edwin, Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Smoak, Pompey.

Man, Hendriks could be the fifth starter on that team and they would still be the favorite to win the East. That would be a no brainer acquisition.

I'd like Zobrist as well, obviously. Only problem is he's only under control for 2015...but that might make him cheaper to get.

The gossip about Zobrist being available doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  He would have had a lot more value at the deadline last year and the Rays were out of it.  The fact that they didn't trade him suggested that they were building for 2015 (which was entirely credible given the talent on hand).  The Jays, among other clubs, would have paid a premium for 1 and 1/2 years of him.   I suppose that it is possible that the club has had a change of heart with the departures of Friedman and Maddon. 

Merry Christmas everyone.

" I suppose that it is possible that the club has had a change of heart with the departures of Friedman and Maddon."

I think it's more like probable versus "possible"

Curious, and at this point clearly a hypothetical exercise, but I was thinking what if the Jays were able to acquire Zobrist? Then where would their everyday lineup stack up against the best lineups over the last 25 years? Is it even worth the exercise or would it really be as great as some, including myself, think it would be?

Scouring the internet, I am sure there are analytical tools out there to run such an exercise but to start things off I would say that the 1999 Indians may have had the most potent lineup over the last 25 years. This would be a good starting point for comparison sakes.

Lineup
CF Kenny Lofton
SS Omar Vizquel
2B Roberto Alomar
RF Manny Ramirez
1B Jim Thome
DH Richie Sexson
LF David Justice
3B Travis Fryman
C Einar Diaz

.300-plus Batting Average
Ramirez (.333), Vizquel (.333), Alomar (.323), Lofton (.301)

30-plus Home Runs
Ramirez (44), Thome (33), Sexson (31)

100-plus RBI
Ramirez (165), Alomar (120), Sexson (116), Thome (108)

Anyone have a team, post 1989, with a better lineup in mind?

Merry Christmas.

Timing seems to be everything. Being in the right place at the right time with the right stuff always wins. You can have a great Pitching Staff. You can also have a great Offense and a great Defense. At some point in the season you must turn things over to the Bullpen, to make or break the Season right then and there.

I find it extremely strange that such a massive priority, shown to be a glaring need has had so very little done to it in the last two months, basically more than half-way through the offseason. (When more than two-thirds of the top Free Agents are gone, the halfway point has been passed. When so many more than expected trades have occurred, the halfway point has been passed.) Apparently the Bullpen wasn't a priority for A.A. or he wouldn't be so indecisive now.

Changing the culture of this team was a priority, known as Plan A. Acquiring an impact player, like Victor Martinez, Russell Martin or Pablo Sandoval was a priority, A.A. was going to get one, that was Plan A. Moving Lawrie to 2B and acquiring a 3B was a priority, Plan A, but plans change. Not re-signing Melky was a Plan A. Acquiring better Defense became Plan A, about the time Martin was signed.

How the Bullpen became an afterthought is easy to see, as A.A. gets single-minded/side-tracked at times. Robertson and Miller may never have signed here, but acquiring that type of talent will always be expensive. Spending just cash is easy and costs less than dealing depth. I just don't know if the Bullpen was ever Plan A.

Plan A is getting who/what you want. Plan B is what you settle for when Plan A fails. Plan C is what's left/the emergency fallback to Plan B. You need an extensive Plan C, but it never, ever must be your Plan B. It will be interesting to see how A.A. explains his Bullpen alternatives.

I am sure there are analytical tools out there to run such an exercise but to start things off I would say that the 1999 Indians may have had the most potent lineup over the last 25 years.

To develop matured prospects in Toronto,, would that prospect be placed in batting order according to utilizing his strength or developing his weakness ? Say Dan Johnson or last season, who has been known for plate discipline and walks, shall he bat leading off so he could get on base more or bat 5th where he get on base for the 4 other hitters in the lineup while getting chances to drive in runners on base ? Analogously, would Martin bat 1st to draw walks for Reyes the switch batter who did not draw much walk at leadoff and provides switch batting for JB19 and EE ?

Scouring the internet, I am sure there are analytical tools out there to run such an exercise but to start things off I would say that the 1999 Indians may have had the most potent lineup over the last 25 years. This would be a good starting point for comparison sakes.

If you use runs scored as the measurement of lineup potency - and I see no reason not to - the 1999 Indians did, in fact, have the most potent lineup in the last 25 years. Their total of 1009 runs was the second-highest since the war (the 1950 Red Sox scored more).

When I used the Lahman database to look up runs scored leaders since WW2, I noticed that the years 1996-2000 stand out like a, um, steroid syringe. Of the 20 best postwar runs scored totals, 16 were from those five years, and another was from 2001. The only three not from that time period were the aforementioned 1950 Red Sox, the 2006 Yankees, and the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers (the Boys Of Summer!). All twenty of these teams scored 925 runs or more - by way of comparison, the 2014 leaders - the Angels - scored 773.

(If you remove the "since WW2" restriction, the all-time runs scored leaders are a bunch of 19th-century clubs and some Ruth-era Yankees teams.)

Kuroda signs with Hiroshima Carp......not returning to NY!

What's my new favourite American news publication? It's the Star-telegram down in Texas. They just put out their 2015 prognostications including their MLB predictions. Love their July prediction of the Jays and Nationals with the most wins going into the All Star break.

But nothing tops their predictions of the Jays taking down the Tigers in the ALCS before taking the World Series against the Cardinals in 7 games. How do they predict they do it? On a Donaldson series winning homer in the 9th inning of game #7. Oh only if they get this one even close wouldn't that be great?!!

By the way they bring up an interesting point that I coincidentally noticed yesterday when watching Back to the Future II. That is that it took place in the far away distant year of 2015. Ok I feel old!

So where are the flying cars?

http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/gil-lebreton/article5058426.html

Your flying car is here:AeroMobil: Flying car and your hover board is here

Yes, we do live in the future and 2015 is just a few days away.

Thanks John. Car is very cool. I guess the future is now.

It's been a slow few days Jay news wise so I thought I would check out how good Donaldson's plays were last year.

Well there were some fantastic plays. Scroll forward to 12:20 to see a great DP on EE then immediately after that a spectacular leap onto the tarp to rob Kawasaki. Looking at that play I am amazed he did not end up on the DL. I guess I am too used to Lawrie trying the same thing and coming away injured. One thing I did notice was how many unbelievable double plays Donaldson turned last year. Plays where my instinct told me he would go to 1B instead.

After seeing those plays I am pulling for Goins to win 2B job. We have enough hitting and I gotta say that having those two in the field will save a lot of runs and we need a guy who can turn the back end of the DP. There will be a lot of throws coming from Donaldson. Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1OHXAok-qg

Just for fun here is his counter parts top 10 plays of 2013 (which reminds us what he can be when healthy). If only Lawrie stayed healthy he would be just as good.

http://www.bluejayhunter.com/2013/10/brett-lawries-top-10-defensive-gems-of.html

Still his DP at home to nab Ortiz this past year was my favourite Brett Lawrie moment. Here's looking forward to Josh giving us more of the same.

When I used the Lahman database to look up runs scored leaders since WW2, I noticed that the years 1996-2000 stand out like a, um, steroid syringe. Of the 20 best postwar runs scored totals, 16 were from those five years, and another was from 2001.

Nit-picky self-correction: I crunched my numbers wrong the first time - there were only 13 on the list from those years. That's still a lot.