i was annoyed when we picked up happ's option, but it turns out i was wrong about happ's trade value. saunders is pretty good, and cheap. much more value here than with either melky or markakis.

so another good move by AA....but now he's gotta go and get a pitcher. you can't rush sanchez into the rotatuon yet i don't think.

After the savings produced by this trade, a lot of the Jays beat reporters are predicting that the Jays now have $20-million to $22-million available to spend for the 2015 payroll. (Shi Davidi estimates that the current commitments and arbitration obligations are just $119-million.)  This presumes that the payroll will be around $140-million, slightly higher than last season.  It's hard to know if this is true, since the ownership has been so opaque on "payroll parameters" etc.  But if it is true, it shouldn't be hard for the Jays to upgrade their rotation and bullpen with the additional money.  Perhaps one good starter and two bullpen pieces.  There are lots of players available on the free-agent and trade markets for the rotation and bullpen.  This might, however, still prevent the Jays from upgrading at 2B or 1B, where they might have to settle for what they currently have.

Need to see which LHP replaces Happ, but this is a huge gain. He could be an upgrade offensively over Melky Cabrera and he's already an upgrade over Melky defensively. If needed, he can play Center Field, and he's cheap saving us big money.

Something else is coming, but who knows what.

What's really interesting about Michael Saunders is his list of comparables and the number of ex-Jays that are included:
-Gabe Gross
-Turner Ward
-Travis Snider

So how does the chain-of-succession thing look now? Was it Snider for Lincoln, and now Happ for (the equivalent of Snider), so that we really traded Happ for Lincoln, who we traded away for ?? and we got Lincoln for a bunch of prospects.. I'm sure someone will "fill in the blanks".. :-)

Meh. Saunders looks like a nice player, LH (we're kinda short on those) and gives us the option I assume to let Pompey force his way through AAA. I'm just a little worried the team is blowing through all its starting pitching depth. Last year we were lucky that none of Stroman, Hutchison, Happ got injured and we had to really test that depth. Pitchers get hurt, it's part of the job description, and I'm not super optimistic about Sanchez or Norris filling in as big league starters quite yet.

For what it's worth (is there an abbreviation for that? I'm outta touch) Saunders has a pretty considerable home/road split for his career. The Dome is a much nicer place to hit than Safeco. Likewise, I could see Happ having a terrific season pitching in Seattle.

I don't consider going from $137. MM to just $140. MM as an increase, just the cost of doing business. I think we should consider A.A.'s budget to be in the $145. MM - $150. MM range to be useful increase. Until I find out different, that's what I'll use going forward.

Another point: since Melky is effectively gone now, this restores the draft pick that the Jays lost for signing Russell Martin. 

GREAT TRADE WHO'D WE GET

Simply looking at Steamer projections for next year, the Jays landed the vastly superior player for half the cost at a position of need and with 2 extra years of control.

AA is all in, and it's kinda awesome.

"....I'm just a little worried the team is blowing through all its starting pitching depth...."

It's only Dec. 3, with two months remaining in the off-season.  The Jays still have money to spend.  I'm pretty certain that they will acquire two or three more pitchers in the next few weeks, and one of them is likely to be a starter.  (The big question: will they try to acquire an elite starter like Lester, or will they settle for a depth guy or a bounce-back candidate?)

The Jays are fully aware that Sanchez is a risky choice for the rotation at this point.  If he wins the job in spring training in a full and fair competition, that's one possibility, but he won't be handed the job on a silver platter at this early point in the off-season.  The Jays know that they need more rotation depth, and I'm quite sure that they'll address that obvious problem soon. Lots of pitchers are available.

I just kinda realized something funny. The first move that AA made this offseason was to switch Lind for Estrada, which I recall many of us were not too pleased with. You can almost interpret his moves since then have been to justify that deal. "Oh yeah? Well I'm gonna go out and get a great defensive catcher, deal our starting pitching depth for the best third baseman in the AL, AND trade our #5 starter for that LH outfielder we need. Now how do ya like Estrada? A lot a bet!"

Then he proceeds to flip a table and strut out of the room. At least in my imagination he does.

Wow, this off-season is really restoring my faith in management. Great trade, and I have to say I like Smoak at that price too. I would think that Estrada will get significant time in the rotation now unless we add an ace.

I really like this trade. Next to come, pitching? like many of you have already called.

Yeah, Pitching. Only one problem, who does he get that's equal to the caliber of people he's acquired. Can't just be any good pitcher now, gotta be special.

I'm surprised Happ was all it took to land Saunders - one year of Happ at $6.7M for three years of Saunders? Hell yeah. Small sample size alert, but Saunders has a .888 OPS at SkyDome with an (obviously unsustainable) .582 slugging percentage.

That said, the team's questionable pitching depth is a little troubling, especially if Stroman has a sophomore slump and Sanchez can't hold his own in the rotation.

Time to acquire All The Canadians. Trade for Votto and first base is solved, and the lineup might very well be the second coming of Murderer's Row.

That contract would likely hamstring the team pretty badly in a couple years, but flags fly forever.

Huh, I had no idea Votto's contract was so insane. I take back what I said about trading for him... that's just way too much money and way too long a term.

Too bad about Adam LaRoche - he would've been a great add given Reyes' and Donaldson's penchant for errant throws.

That was weird. Anyway...

Smoak, if nothing else, is a defensive upgrade on both Lind and Encarnacion (the prospect of Donaldson throwing to EE had filled me with some trepidation.) He doesn't have a huge platoon split, but he's been a little better against RH pitchers and this team should see lots of them.

I did like this. Cathal Kelly on the winter meetings:

In reality, it’s a bunch of executives hiding in their suites watching daytime television. Every evening, they cook up stories for the press, who spend a week drinking miserably in the lobby. It’s the worst gig in sports. Anthopoulos already sounded like he was dreading it.

If the Jays want, they can play Saunders in right-field and move Bautista to first base against RHP and Valencia at first base and Bautista in RF against LHP.  He's a nice fit for the organization- they don't need a centerfielder (and he's no longer decent defensively there) but can use a fine fielding corner outfielder with a range of skills.  Or he can be used to give Pompey or Pillar more time in the minors (I don't recommend it, but you can imagine it happening). 

So, as of today, the rotation options are:  Stroman, Buehrle, Hutchison, Dickey, Sanchez, Norris, Estrada, Redmond.  Am I missing anyone?

I like this deal.  It's now possible for the club to put out a lineup that fields and hits very well this year.  And in 2016, Saunders in RF, Bautista at 1B and Encarnacion at DH is definitely the way to go.  There will be no long term cost to what is clearly a better arrangement than before.

Particularly given our improved defense i would add Jenkins to that list. But I seem to be in the minority in thinking he can start (despite the fairly good sss results thus far)

I really like this deal. I've liked Saunders for a while now. LH bat, decent outfielder, decent hitter with some upside, athletic, 28 years old, relatively inexpensive (both in terms of AAV and commitment beyond 2015) - well done, Alex. Much better than signing Melky to a hefty contract.

Our GM is on fire this off-season.

Depending on A.A. does with the rest of his needs, it's impossible to say when he's done, because he's always trying to make this Team better.

Now, I wished they would have kept Lawrie. They would be Team Canada. Next Axford for bullpen?

In all seriousness, I live in Seattle. I like Saunders, but he always seems to get hurt when he gets hot. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays just release him before arbitration and use the money to get more. I feel like the trade was a salary dump more than to get Saunders.

I am very happy to get Smoak back. I think Safeco field played with his mind. I think this is a good gamble.

Now, we need to turn Navarro into bullpen help (and salary cap room).

If there is salary room and we fill that last 20 million, I am very excited for this team. We are getting very close.

Saunders has had 10 XBH in 62 PAs in the Rogers Centre, including one memorable blast off Cordero a few years ago.  Getting out of Safeco might be just the ticket for him.  The more I think about it, the more I like the trade.

I'm sure he can play LF just fine. I don't see Bautista moving from RF unless he has some sort of leg injury.

Closer is now the biggest hole. And there is still a catcher to trade, maybe for a bullpen arm?

Count me in as a fan of this deal. I will not miss seeing JA Happ fix his ball cap 50 times every 5th day.

I'm also a fan of Smoak at that price.

And, for the third time this week, I'm going to mention how I think Chad Jenkins should be in the mix for the back-end of the rotation. At least give him a fair shake.

Now, I wished they would have kept Lawrie. They would be Team Canada. Next Axford for bullpen?
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Literally, Axford had closer experience; just like Estrada the past starter whose 2014 performance was downward. So Axford could be a good fit, a ST invitation ?

Former Twins prospects Rene Tosoni played Independent League; if Balbino Fuenmayor being named Independent League Player of the Year could indicate an alternative path for farm products to demonstrate performance, Tosoni is worth AAA playing time. Ezequiel Carrera and Tosoni in Buffalo ?

With four open spaces on the 40-Man Roster, A.A. has room to maneuver. I just can`t wait to see what happens next.

Closer is now the biggest hole. And there is still a catcher to trade, maybe for a bullpen arm?
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Axford worth a try ?
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The Jays are fully aware that Sanchez is a risky choice for the rotation at this point.  If he wins the job in spring training in a full and fair competition, that's one possibility, but he won't be handed the job on a silver platter at this early point in the off-season.
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If Happ's value can be traded at its highest point, I see the same rationale in getting Wade LeBlanc among non-tenders. LeBlanc was once a starter, playing him in Buffalo 2015?

Also Todd Redmond and Estrada can start until Sanchez proves himself ready for starting; obviously just looking internally when options are available externally.

AA said in a conference call that Saunders will play LF. He also said he's been trying to acquire him for a long time (a year? Years? I couldn't hear exactly what he said).

Saunders might hit 20-25 HR next year.

There are rumours that a mystery team has joined the three leading teams for Lester. I have a feeling Alex would really love to put the capstone on this off-season and add Lester to the rotation. I think he wants a strong #1/2 to anchor the rotation.

I do have a feeling we will get another starter. The Jays biggest weakness the last 2 years were starters.

The one thing to watch is to see what the Mariners do with their glut of starters. I bet they are going for Matt Kemp. (Walker for Kemp?)

Looks like the Dodgers are the mystery team after Lester. I can't see AA having the financial flexibility to add Lester. Maybe Shields but not Lester. That said I just don't see Boston missing out on Shields if they lose out on Lester. If the do it would be a huge bonus for us Jays fans (assuming we can't land him ourselves).

Yeah, when your competition for a player of Lester's calibre includes teams like the LAD, Boston, SF...you're probably going to lose (which might be a blessing in disguise).

I've always liked Shields, but I think he's become a risky player to acquire (because of age, mileage, and stuff that might start becoming a bit short). I could see him going the way of pitchers like Haren and Marcum before too long. He's pitched a lot of innings and pitchers break down.

Maybe someone like McCarthy? Not a 1/2, but someone who could shore up the rotation at a more reasonable price. Probably AA wants someone with a higher ceiling, though.

Dumb question, but does anyone think that there might be a chance that the Jays bring Jannsen back?  There haven't been any rumours about him, Toronto needs a closer, appears to have more money now than they did before... could it be a decent fit?

Yeah I really like McCarty too but so apparently do the Yankees and many other teams (according to reports I recall making the rounds last week). I am sure most teams love his high ground ball rate. That of course would play well in the Rogers Centre.

Justin Masterson? He's shown that he can be a top 2-type guy when at his best.

I just read this article at the Globe, and the author seems to think the Jays are done with moves for the offseason.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/kelly-this-time-around-anthopoulos-actually-feels-good-about-his-team/article21937459/

Personally, I can't see how that's possible. At the very least, I think Navarro is traded to fill the bullpen hole and that the deal is close to salary-neutral. BR has us currently at 127.5, which would seem to mean AT LEAST 10 million more to spend, and hopefully more.

So what does he do with that cash that's burning a hole in his pocket? I think we'll see at least 2-3 more deals to round things out, and I'm secretly dreaming one of them is for Scherzer or Lester, even though I'm not getting my hopes up.

We need another LHP, because I do not think Norris will be anywhere near close to making the Team in 2015 and will be a rookie in 2016 as our only LHP.

If you are going to get a LHP, you might as well get the very best you can. If Lester is to be the one, so be it.

Paul, the reason I wouldn't think they would want Janssen back is that they've denied all interest in the big ticket free agent relievers. That said, youneverknow, and they do like to keep their real thoughts close to their chest.

AA is having an off-season that Fangraphs is going to praise for months before the season starts. Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, and Travis, with presumably a lot of money to spare.

This is fun.

I just read this article at the Globe, and the author seems to think the Jays are done with moves for the offseason.
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If ninja tactics are in the work, I think this article may be an aftereffect. The MLB depth at CF, 2B and closer are shallow, so there shall be more transactions.

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Is Jesse Crain available for 2015 ? How about Nick Weglarz ? Weglarz to New Hamsphire and Buffalo. Crain and Axford in Buffalo ? All "stash"

Go Canada Go !

An interesting aspect to the question about the total payroll is whether Rogers budgets the payroll in US$ or Cdn$. If they are at $127 million US now, that's about $142 million Cdn. If the budget is in Cdn$, they are pretty close to where they were last year, when the dollar was close to par at the start of 2014. If they budget in US$, they still have a good chunk of money to spend to get to the same payroll as last year.

If Saunders is going to play regularly in LF, then I hope Pillar gets a couple of months in CF to show what he can do. He was outstanding in AAA last year, particularly after the terrible first couple of weeks, and I'd like to see him get a decent shot.

Saunders may be another example of those guys who get called up too early, have a few weak seasons before starting to break out, and are under valued as a result. If last year's numbers are for real, and he gets a further boost from getting out of Safeco, he'll be a steal for the Jays.

I wouldn't want to see them go into the season with the current bullpen, though. They need two more dependable arms to go along with Cecil, Loup, Redmond and either Sanchez or Estrada. And that's if everyone is healthy, and presumes they can fill the 7th spot internally with somebody like Jenkins, Delabar, Tepera, Rasmussen or maybe one of the guys they've claimed recently like Burns or Hynes. It's not like they've got a bunch of guys who go 7+ innings on a regular basis, and I'd hate to see them try to cobble together a pen out of that group.

Half the cost? Of Melky? Melky is going to get at least 13M a year.

Happy about this deal for a few reasons. Secondary to the points raised already in the thread, but I feel worth raising, Happ demonstrated in spring training that he would protest any demotion to a long man role. Even after a poor showing, he seemed entitled - like he was owed a spot in the rotation. Of course, you can read things in different ways - maybe it showed competitiveness - but it didn't sit well with me. That minor feeling aside, I don't think an established 5th starter is what you want when you have young talent knocking at the door. I'd rather have an open competition, with the consolation prize being a real prize - the prospect of pitching in the pen at a major league level, rather than the potential of a disgruntled veteran.

For the money, I like Saunders in left and especially that he adds a lefty to the line-up. I like (hope) that the money saved can now be used to target a front-end starter.

For what it's worth (FWIW, I learned recently), I think Smoak will also provide value well over his $1M contract. Having an otherwise lefty-mashing line-up, in addition to the Rogers Centre, should help both Smoak and Saunders.

Half the cost? Of Melky? Melky is going to get at least 13M a year.   Took me a while to figure out which post you are referring to, but I suspect the commenter was comparing Brantley's salary to Happ's contract, not Melky's.   This looks like a great trade for the Jays.  Personally, I would be inclined to put Saunders in center - he played half the 2013 season there, in a spacious ballpark, so I'm comfortable with him there.  I'd get Dirks back to platoon with Pillar in left for half a season, and if Pompey is tearing up AAA, then I'd call him up.  Yes, I know it's gaming the system a little, but I prefer retaining as much contractual control as possible, and having Pompey end the season at under a year of service time gives you a full extra year of control.  Not to mention, there are sound baseball reasons to start him at AAA.   With Valencia and Smoak platooning at 1B, I'd say the lineup is solid enough that an Izturis/Goins platoon at 2B could be tolerable until Travis is ready, while helping the defense (at least when Goins is playing).  It's a lot of platoons, and might necessitate having more long men in the pen rather than specialists, but it would be a potent and well-rounded offense.  If a starter is signed, Sanchez, Estrada, Jenkins, and Redmond are all guys that can pitch multiple innings out of the pen.  Perhaps that's a Moneyball-style market inefficiency to exploit - using long men to free up a roster spot for a platoon that would be more productive than what you could get from a single player in your price range.

Another good trade, exactly what you'd hope for when offloading Happ.

There's been a few mentions of Saunders having 3 years of team control left. I'm pretty sure that's incorrect, according to BB-Ref he had 3 years 138 days of service time at the beginning of 2014, so he'll easy clear 6 years by the end of 2016.

Mentions of Justin Masterson give me nightmares of the Gord Ash era... he fits in with the likes of Erik Hanson, Joey Hamilton, Steve Parris. I'd rather see the Jays bring in a lower-risk lower-reward type like Gavin Floyd.

I'm not excited about having Smoak back. Sure $1M is pretty meaningless on a big league payroll, but the roster spot has value. I guess I'll place my hopes in my having been very wrong about Blue Jay first baseman in the recent past - I would have run Lind and EE out of town and regretted it. And I hope AA pushes hard to get Daric Barton on a minor league contract (hat tip to Jevant), to be ready to step in if Smoak simply is what he is.

Paul, the reason I wouldn't think they would want Janssen back is that they've denied all interest in the big ticket free agent relievers.

That's a fair point Craig. From my point of view it's hard to figure out what Janssen is going to get - Miller, not a closer, seems to be getting $40 million over 4 years, but his numbers are better than Janssen's. What's a reasonable contract for Janssen and what do you think he'll end up getting?

Paul you'd think 3/25 would be an opening gambit on Janssen, and maybe not much chance of getting through, but it depends. I think this postseason will be a fashion leader as the previous postseason tends to be, and the unmistakeable moral of that story (Gisnts, Royals) is that you want a shutdown bullpen, that means relief prices to rise.

It only takes one team to differ, but I get the sense that Janssen is seen by other teams the way the Jays have always seemed to treat him - a good fill-in for closer when your other options don't work out. but you'd never want to to count on him as a great first option. Throw in injury issues limiting him to a small workload (even by modern bullpen standards, 54IP/year for the last 6 years isn't much), a cratering K rate last year to go with the and I don't think he'll get a long offer, or a particularly large one.

Love the Happ move, even if I thought Happ was a very good end of rotation guy. He's been almost a league average starter - if he was 2-3 years younger, I would still bet on him having a few solidly above average years ahead of him, but Saunders seems like a great return.

Saunders is approximately half the cost of Happ.  And has 3 years of control, where Happ has 1.

Am I the only person who reads that article and gets concerned that AA is completely done outside of some minor bullpen work?

Is it possible there will be less money spent this year compared to last, at the end of the day?  Says he's not after a frontline starter.

I'm a big fan of this move. Most posters have covered the multitude of reasons why it's a good move (Saunders' offensive potential, his defensive versatility, years of team control, not committing to Melky for more years than I'd like, gaining a draft pick back when Melky signs elsewhere).

I've always been a big fan of Saunders. I'm fairly sure there's a post from earlier this offseason where I suggested the Jays swap Navarro for Saunders.

Thumbs up for this deal, too bad it couldn't be expanded to include Maurer & Miller/Ackley - Both Saunders & Happ should benefit from this trade - wasn't looking forward to having Cabrera in LF the next 4/5 yrs. - After the criticism he received from the Marnier's FO about his lack of conditioning, will be interested to see how Saunders responds.

Also liked the Smoak deal - I'm more optimistic than most - maybe I'm partially seduced by the .839 ops he had against RHP in 2013 but mostly I think he's a good change of scenery guy - the weight of expectations (key player in the Cliff Lee trade) & that ballpark I think got into his psyche.

It's rumoured that Bret Anderson failed a jays physical last year in a potential Sergio Santos trade but I've always liked him and I hope the Jays revisit that option -
Anderson and/or Masterson on a pillow contract I think is a worthwhile gamble.

I would be absolutely, positively floored if the Jays release him before arbitration.

This strikes me as a "sell high on Happ, pick up unwanted OF to fill a massive LF hole" move by AA.  I'm just hoping he's not done.

It's worth pointing out that although I think the Jays did well with the trade, Happ absolutely proved last year that he belongs in a major league rotation (at least he did for 2014).  It's not inconceivable that the Jays will get worse numbers out of those 26 starts in 2015 than Happ gave them in 2014 (actually, quite probable that they will, especially if they don't add another arm).

Yay!  Another person for the Daric Barton bandwagon!  Although I imagine Smoak being resigned probably does an end to that, and Barton is a FA because he declined an assignment to AAA, so it seems as if we are going with a Smoak/Valencia 1B platoon.

It's been a good enough offseason that if the Jays are indeed done, they have improved the team, and I would still be happy.

So, where are the Jays at now?
CA: Martin, Navarro, Thole
1B: Encarnacion or Smoak
2B: Travis, Goins, Izturis, Tolleson
SS: Reyes
LF: Saunders
CF: Pillar/Pompey
RF: Bautista
DH: Encarnacion or Navarro/Valencia/Smoak

Rotation: Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutchison, then Sanchez/Norris/Estrada/Hendriks/Redmond/Jenkins/whoever
Bullpen: Cecil, Loup, Redmond, Jenkins, Estrada, Delabar, Drabek, whoever

Outside of 1B/DH I think it is pretty much settled on the lineup (with the spring battle for Pompey/Pillar in CF and seeing if Travis is ready at 2B) and I suspect the Jays are OK having a battle slot for Sanchez/Norris/etc. in the rotation.  The pen though is a real mess still and could use a few more solid guys.  Of course, if any spot was going to be left till the end that is the best one as the Jays have an assortment of arms (see the 6 names I listed for the 5th rotation slot) and the pen is the most unpredictable part of a team.  Worst case they could always do a trade with Philly for Papelbon as a high priced closer is not something a rebuilding team really needs.

Right now I wouldn't be shocked at all to see AA do a trade where one of Buehrle or Dickey or Hutchison goes to another team in exchange for a #1/ace type guy who has a few years of control along with a few Jay prospects of course.  Might have to take on a teams headache contract as well.  For example, to get Cole Hamels the Jays might send back Buehrle (costs the Jays just $4.5 mil this year but $70+ mil over 3 years after) so Philly could dream of a compensation pick post 2015 plus a few prospects but also take on Papelbon's $13 mil contact or Cliff Lee's $25 mil plus $13 mil buyout (or $27.5 mil vesting option).  Hmm... now there would be a gutsy move - trade for Cliff Lee now without knowing just how healthy he is, very high $ but if healthy is a clear ace (option is guaranteed with 200 IP in 2015 and doesn't have a left arm injury at the end of 2015).  Philly will keep trying to dump Ryan Howard on any trade as over the past 3 years he has had an OPS+ of 98 which for a poor fielding 1B is really bad (negative WAR 2 of past 3 years) and is owed $60 mil over the next 2 years (no way that option is picked up in 2017). 

Hmmm... if you were GM would you take on Howard in order to get Hamels?  Net cost over 4 years would be $94 mil plus option/buyout for 2019 for Hamels plus $60 for Howard who you might release = $154 mil over 4 years or $38.5 mil a year ... ick.  Spread over 5 ($20-24 mil option in year 5 for Hamels) it becomes $174-$178 mil over 5 or $34.8 to $35.6 per year.  Hrm... still not a good enough deal.  Better to try to sign one of the guys on the market.  What if they took away excess players Romero, Izturis, & Navarro = $7.5+$4+$5 = $16.5 mil?  Then the 5 year cost becomes $31.5 to $32.3 a year which is still too much really.  FanGraphs has Hamels being worth around $20 mil a year for each of the past 4 years.  I could see a team like the Cubs maybe doing it as they have tons of payroll space this year ($64 mil projected right now) and writing off Howard plus adding Hamels would still keep them out of the top 10 for payroll but really I don't see anyone doing it unless desperate after losing out on the big 3 starters.  Eh, an interesting math problem though to see if it could make sense.

"....Happ absolutely proved last year that he belongs in a major league rotation..."

Yes, true. But the departure of Happ is still an opportunity to upgrade the rotation, if the owners live up to Beeston's payroll promises. (He promised an increase over the $137-million payroll of 2014.)  An increasing payroll would mean that the Jays have at least $20-million extra to spend above their current commitments and arbitration projections. And if Navarro is traded, the additional spending could rise to $25-million. Probably half of that would go to the bullpen (and maybe 2B), but that still leaves money available for a starting pitcher, especially if the contract is back-loaded Martin-style.   Happ was certainly adequate for a 5th starter in 2014, but the Jays can do better.  I'm confident that Sanchez and Norris will eventually be better than Happ, but we can't rely on that for the beginning of the season, so an additional starter should be acquired. If chosen smartly, that new pitcher could be an upgrade on Happ. 

It would strike me as a tremendous missed opportunity to really go for it in the last couple years of the JoeyBats/EE-are-elite era.  The moves have improved the team, but also provided payroll flexibility.  Cranking the dollars up to $140m would allow for a really nice SP to allow Sanchez/Norris to force their way into the team, rather than give them spots out of necessity. 

I agree that it's been a great offseason thus far, which would almost make it even worse (in my view) to not go "all in".  I'm just hoping that Rogers doesn't repeat their mistake from last year with the whole penny-pinching Ervin Santana fiasco.

I doubt we are actively looking for anyone else at 1B. Smoak was probably given some indication about what his playing time would be with the Jays, otherwise I don't see why he was so quick to re-sign with them for 1/3 of the money.

As the person who posted the comment you quoted, I'll respond to yours here with: "I 100% agree", and hope that AA's comments about not adding another SP are simply posturing.

I was also going to comment that Happ's rotation replacement should be able to pitch deeper into games, helping to preserve the bullpen and avoid those annoying games where Happ's pitch count is already at 90 in the fifth inning.  But I couldn't find the stats on "innings per game" for Happ to see if my perception is still true.  Anyone got the stats?  Was it still correct in 2014 that Happ pitched fewer innings than the average starter, and fewer than the other Jays starters?  And do we think that the Jays can upgrade the 5th starter position to improve the number of innings pitched?  (Unless the 5th starter is Sanchez, who understandably might not be pitching deep into games in his first season as a starter.)

I suspect the cost of adding another starting pitcher is extremely high thus why AA is saying 'nah' at this point.  Until one of the big 2 sign we won't know just how nuts the market is this winter but it looks like it could be 7 year crazy.  Signing a pitcher after age 30 to a 7 year deal is a massive risk to take.  Scherzer is entering his age 30 season with 2 consecutive elite seasons (6+ WAR) after a great year (4+ WAR).  Do you sign a guy with 3 really good years to a contract that is more than double that length of time at $25-$30 mil per year?  Lester is entering his age 31 season and hasn't hit 6 WAR since he was 25 and is 2 years away from a sub 1 WAR season.  Again, is a 7 year deal worth it (and to come here instead of Boston that is what it would take).  Shields is probably willing to sign if someone goes to 6 years right now but is entering his age 33 season, peaked at 31 (5.2 WAR) while being in the high 2's to 4 range the past 3 years.  His FIP suggests he has been helped by his defense a fair amount though. 

If the Jays are confident that Sanchez is ready to be a solid #2 guy and Stroman a #1 while Buehrle & Dickey are solid #3's possibly #2's and Hutch a #3 then the rotation could be killer without blowing $25-30 mil a year for 6-7 years on a free agent.  If the Phillies can be conned into selling Hamels to us at a reasonable price (ie: none of the elite prospects) then I say AA has GM of the year wrapped up.  Taking a flier on Cliff Lee if Philly sells at a very cheap price is worthwhile too potentially as worst case is lost money and the current rotation, best case is a real #1 with an option for 2016.

Blue Jays starters in 2014, IP/GS:

Dickey	6.3
Buehrle	6.3
Hutchsn	5.8
Happ	5.9
Stroman	6.0
McGowan	4.9
Morrow	4.6
Hendrks	4.4

"....the reason I wouldn't think they would want Janssen back is that they've denied all interest in the big ticket free agent relievers...."

This is not quite accurate.  Anthopoulos actually phrased it this way in a Nov. 30 interview on MLB Radio:

"I don’t know that you’re going to see us involved in some of the large, big dollar deals that are out there for relievers.  I wouldn’t necessarily completely rule it out. At some point it makes sense.....  We have to be really careful if we’re going to do a big money expenditure on a reliever."

So he's not ruling out any possibility of a big-dollar deal for a reliever -- he's just saying that the Jays have to be careful.  And he also seemed to be saying that a big-ticket deal could "make sense" at some point.

I assume Anthopoulos always makes these kinds of cautious comments because he doesn't want to drive up the bidding for free agents.  If he said that he's keen on signing an elite big-ticket reliever, it only encourages the agents to ask for more money, and it prolongs the bidding as the agents expect more. 

If he has money to spend, the bullpen is one of the most obvious places.  If he has up to $25-million to spend, as many analysts suggest, he can certainly afford at least one of the big-ticket relievers.  Whether he will do that is unknown.  But he probably can't fill every bullpen position by the trade route.   And at this point, his trading chips (aside from Navarro) are rapidly diminishing.  There aren't many other prospects to trade, without stripping the farm system of essential depth.  So the free-agent market seems like a logical source for the Jays to dip further into.  But don't expect AA to admit that publicly.

People have also noticed AA's comments in the Globe about elite starters.  Again, I read this as slightly less absolutist than others did.  Cathal Kelly reported, after a group lunch between AA and the press corps, that the pursuit of "big-money studs" is "finished."  The actual quote from AA was a little less definite. He said: "Everyone would love to have a front-of-the-rotation starter. I don’t think we need it."

I would read this, again, as an attempt to avoid a bidding war.  But does it really mean that the Jays are content to anoint Sanchez as the 5th starter?  With only Estrada or perhaps Richmond or Jenkins as the back-up if Sanchez isn't ready?  That seems rather foolhardy.  I would hope and assume that the Jays are still in the market for a starting pitcher, and it won't be an Aaron Laffey reclamation project -- it will be someone with an actual record of MLB success, whether it's a "big-money stud" or not.

Saunders' numbers aren't exactly overwhelming, but there is a possibility that he could improve. 2014 was the first year since 2010 that Happ had an ERA under 4.50; I suppose that his gain in fastball velocity might stick, in which case he'll be a good pickup for the Mariners, but I'd bet the other way.

(Since Happ is leaving, it's time to mention my favourite Happ factoid: he was tied for the National League lead in shutouts in 2009, with two. He went 12-4 that year, and was second in Rookie Of The Year voting. The past is a foreign country.)

I don't think that AA will sign anybody else - Lester, for example, will probably go for something ludicrous like 7 years for $170 million - but then again I didn't think he'd do what he already has done. It's probably more likely that he will deal Navarro for pitching help.

Rotation: Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutchison, then Sanchez/Norris/Estrada/Hendriks/Redmond/Jenkins/whoever

Thanks, John.  I knew that I forgot somebody, but how could it be Liam Hendriks?

I too would be happy with the off-season player acquisitions as a whole if they ended today.  Now only if I could work up more enthusiasm for the Gibbons/Walker team...

Jonny, thanks for the pitching stats.  So last season, Happ pitched deeper into games than Hutchison, but not as deep as all the other returning Jays starters.  This does confirm my perception.  Hutchison is still young and presumably has a lot of room for improvement, whereas Happ at his age may have peaked at 5.9 innings per start.  It would be nice if the Jays can upgrade at the 5th starter position, since it would have the added benefit of reducing the workload on the bullpen, which would likely improve the bullpen's overall success.

"...The past is a foreign country...."

Steamer, apparently, never read L. P. Hartley.

John Northey I enjoyed your last two posts, but I would be very surprised to see the Jays taking any risks with large contracts from other teams.
I think it is more likely that A.A. is trying to move Reyes (possibly Buehrle) and get more value out of the money allocated to current contracts.

I'm honestly not sure - there are way more pitchers available than bats, which is why I've been assuming the bats have been going first (and as you note, Lester/Scherzer are presumably holding up the market).

I can't see guys outside of the top 2 (3 if you include Shields) getting more than 4 years, personally, unless the 5th is just to drag the AAV down.  Santana, Liriano, McCarthy, Hammel, Peavy, Masterson, Haren, etc, all could be helpful.  Gotta think at least one of those guys will go for something in the 3/30 range (or probably much less than that in some cases, such as Haren or Masterson).

Let me preface my remarks by saying I like the Saunders trade and was never a fan of Happ, but...

Happ may do surprisingly well, over and above the Safeco factor, if he can maintain the uptick in velocity he showed last year. I argued at some length late last season that Happ's true talent may well be league average, which I guess is more than a #5/#6. He was a flyball pitcher who played much of the year with reliable but slowfooted Jose in right, strong-armed but nothing else Melky in left and Rasmus in centre who was Corey Patterson-bad once his feet hit the warning track. He's also going from throwing to a poor pitch framer (Navarro) to a very good pitch framer (Zunino).
If McLendon has enough sense to DH Nelson Cruz when Happ pitches, I predict he may end up doing rather well.

Agreed DJRob.  I was more looking at 'would this make any sense at all' and going on the 'must win now' bit.  Still, despite the must win I am amazed at how AA has actually reduced payroll while upgrading the team this winter.  Think about that - signing a 5 year deal with a premium free agent, getting LF and 2B (potentially) fixed, upgrading at 3B, adding a new #6 starter to replace Happ and the payroll is less than it was last year.

Guys like Hamels and Votto are fun to dream of and to try to figure out how the heck you'd fit them in the payroll but realistically it isn't going to happen.  Of course, I felt the same about getting Donaldson (never even thought it was an option). 

I can see AA trying to trade Reyes - he makes a lot ($22 mil a year from 2015 through 2017) and is in his decline years but really who would go for him?  What could you get to replace him?  FanGraphs only projects Tulowitzki, Andrelton Simmons, Hanley Ramirez  (who isn't going to play SS), and Erick Aybar as better in 2015.  Jimmy Rollins would be cheaper and the Phillies are cutting salary most likely but then where to send Reyes and you'd be downgrading which I doubt the Jays want to do.  Tulowitzki is potentially available but his contract goes through 2020 at $20 mil per so not a lot cheaper per year and has extra years for a guy who makes Reyes look like Cal Ripken for health.  Simmons is cheap and if Atlanta is idiotic enough to trade him I'd take it in a second (signed for 2015-2020 for $57 mil total).  Ramirez is in Boston.  Aybar is with the Angels and makes under $9 mil a year though 2016 so I don't see him as available.  J.J. Hardy is part of the 0.1 less than Reyes projection but he signed a 3 year extension with Baltimore.  Ian Desmond  is signed by Washington for 2015 then is a free agent so they might do a challenge trade to ensure they have a solid SS in 2016/17 but I doubt it.  Elvis Andrus has a stupid contract ($120 mil for 8 years starting in 2015) so I don't see AA going that way.  The only other guy up there (2.5+ WAR) is Jhonny Peralta but the Cards just signed him pre last season to a 4 year deal and I don't see them switching gears that quick.  So basically if AA trades Reyes he will almost certainly be downgrading at SS and I don't see him doing that this winter.  Ian Desmond is the only realistic 'near value' with Rollins a slim shot but very slim (he has no-trade protection and seems to love being in Philly).  I just don't see a change at SS this winter - I think AA is just going to accept the contract Reyes has and deal with it.

I expect AA to sign two mid tier FA relievers and trade Navarro. He should still have a budget surplus and open spots on 40 man. He will then wait till later in January to pick up a couple of players who have fallen through the cracks. It is impossible to predict who these guys might be....added starter depth is something he would be keeping an eye on. I think Gregerson will likely be one of the 2 relievers signed soon.

No way AA is done.

Heard on The Fan that Gibbons says it's now 99% sure that Sanchez is a starter, so the pen now is Cecil, Loup, Estrada, Redmond and 3 of Delabar, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Tepera, McFarland, Drabek or other AAA types. Clearly, some work is needed there.

Shi Davidi quotes Anthopoulos as saying he is looking to sign two relievers, including a closer.

If the Jays are trying to win with a budget then the rotation is left alone now and focus goes to the pen and building some better backups (a shortstop who can hit 200, a vet CF to backup the kids in CF, etc.).  I could easily see AA go after a 'real ace' but it'll be a surprise deal like the Lawrie/Donaldson trade where no one sees it coming until it happens.  I'd bet on AA still looking for upgrades wherever possible but trying to keep the budget stable so he has room mid-season if needed unless a 'wow' shows up.

So when AA was on PTS the other day discussing the importance of depth and his reluctance to move a starter, was it because he was actively engaged in talks already and trying to make it clear he values Happ as the #5? Is there a belief that other teams actually pay attention to any of the posturing in the media? Or perhaps this deal materialized since that conversation, and AA decided the low-cost LH OF option was worth parting with his 5th starter who he can likely replace internally and off the scrap heap.

I'm happy with the moves AA has been making this offseason, and I think getting Saunders for Happ is a good value deal. That being said, I do still think the rotation lacks depth and needs an upgrade. Dickey & Buehrle are as close of a lock as you can get to give you 60 starts, but I am skeptical of relying on Hutchison and Stroman for the same, especially when you don't have the "reliability" of Happ as your 5th starter. It would be nice having an improvement on Happ being added to the rotation, and I think that would be a better use of resources than a 2B or CF upgrade at this point.

If the Jays are trying to win with a budget then the rotation is left alone now and focus goes to the pen and building some better backups (a shortstop who can hit 200.).

Assuming that Izturis is healthy and/or Tolleson is kept, wouldn't one of them (or both?) kinda be that utlility IF guy? If Reyes gets hurt, move Goins to SS, Izturis/Tolleson to 2B... IIRC, both of them can also play 3B in a pinch? Now, if both Reyes AND Goins go down in the same game, it would be interesting. If that's the case for any length of time, I can see Devon Travis getting to the show early..

Gather round... is AA finished with starting pitching?

Here's the sit-u-ation as I see it...

Dickey gets 14 big ones this year with a 2016 option for 12 big ones or a 1 million buyout. Buehrle gets 20 big ones this year and is a free agent next year. IF indeed AA has 20 to 25 loonies to play with THIS year - then consider 2016. Buehrle gone (20 big ones saved) and Lester here (20 to 25 big ones spent) - but only 5 more than this year - AND Dickey's 14 big ones are gone - AND - we get in 2016 a starting rotation of : Lester, Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris with Osuna, perhaps Castro and by mid-2016 perhaps even Hoffman banging on the door. In 2015 we'd have Lester, Buehrle, Dickey, Hutch, Stroman. Sanchez and Norris could be starting in AAA - gives us another year(ish) on their time and or in the pen for at least part of the year as we may need.

The only downside is that in 2015 we'd be at least a tiny bit tight money wise - but in 2016 going forward we'd have 9 million of Dickey's 14 million to go play with.

Win, win, why not?

As the person who posted the comment you quoted, I'll respond to yours here with: "I 100% agree", and hope that AA's comments about not adding another SP are simply posturing.
The only downside is that in 2015 we'd be at least a tiny bit tight money wise - but in 2016 going forward we'd have 9 million of Dickey's 14 million to go play with. Win, win, why not?
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Does this mean Lester is a win-win signing ? Could Reyes be moved to 2B when Goins is on the field ?

Trying to determine the front office's strategy going forward based on quotes to the media is a fool's errand. Anthopoulos has made a number of very astute moves that were completely unforeseen with the possible exception of the Martin signing. Considering the calendar currently reads December, there is plenty of time for Anthopoulos to put the finishing touches on this roster.

As a side note, Tony Blengino just posted an article at Fangraphs digging further into the Donaldson trade and speculating what Donaldson's true talent numbers may look like playing in Toronto for half a season. You can read the article here and spoiler alert, I wish the season were starting tomorrow.

After all of the recent moves, it would be fine to just trade Navarro (ideally for a reliever), and sign a closer. In any case, I wouldn't mind at all if we just added two or three good arms for the bullpen, picked up some needed AAAA depth, and called it an offseason.

Anthopoulos has made a number of very astute moves that were completely unforeseen with the possible exception of the Martin signing

Some of us were advocating for acquiring Saunders earlier this offseason...

However, as a general point, I agree that AA's moves are often hard to predict in advance, both this offseason and during the 2012 offseason. Perhaps due to budget constraints, last offseason was unsatisfying predictable.

I don't think Dickey is a lock to give you anything in particular in 2015.  He is 40 years old and is missing his UCL and he definitely started to flag last year.  On the other hand, Stroman and Hutchison aren't bad bets at all.  For what it's worth, Steamer has Stroman at 31 starts, Hutchison and Dickey at 30.  Stroman is projected to lead the club in innings pitched.  I think that's exactly right. 

In any event, Steamer has the Jays top 4 giving them 756 innings (between 173 and 192 innings each).  That seems to me to be about right.  On balance, they need 200-250 innings out of 2-4 other starters. It sounds as though the club is going to try to get 140-160 of them from Sanchez. 

I have no objection to making a fair offer to Janssen and having him compete for the closer's role.  It's entirely possible his poor second half was linked to his all-star break illness and he was effective for several years prior, including the first half of 2014.  His biggest asset - his command - is one that typically doesn't fade with age, unlike velocity.  I can't help thinking of other not-flashy, yet effective Jays relievers who went else where as FAs because the club wouldn't pay them and enjoyed considerable success elsewhere (Quantrill and Downs in particular).  I am not convinced Miller is worth the money he's seeking, nor that he will come here even if the Jays are willing to pay him.  I think Janssen is still a reasonable bet to be an effective reliever, even if in a setup role, for years to come.

Dickey threw 142.1ip of 3.41era from June on in 2014. What part of that was "starting to flag"? And unless he suddenly lost that UCL overnight, I'm not sure why it's an additional factor; the Jays aren't drafting him out of college and unsure of his future. Dickey had nearly identical seasons in 2013 and 2014, and I think it's reasonable to expect a similar season again in 2015. It's not what the Jays were paying Syndergaard and dArnaud for, but Dickey has been solid overall.

Dickey was a 6 inning starter last year.  When Gibbons sent him out for the 7th, it was plain that it would not work and it did not.

ERA is not a useful statistic for a knuckleballer who is allowing many more unearned runs than typical every year (presumably because of the high PB rate).  Dickey allowed 12 unearned runs last year and his RA rate was about the same as Hutchison's.  Over the last 2 years, he's been charged with 4.58 R/9IP while league average has been 4.23R/9IP.  That is a steep drop in effectiveness, and that combined with his age and late inning performance is probably enough to put him in the "30 starts" average category that Steamer has him in. 

None of that really matters though because the club is essentially in the same boat whether Hutchison gives them 32 starts and Dickey 28 or vice versa.

Perfect world would have Dickey become the 4th starter by seasons end even though he'll probably have 200 IP of around a 100 ERA+.  Stroman has the best potential of the current rotation, Hutchison should be better than a 100 ERA+ guy, and Buehrle is Mr. Steady.  Sanchez could be better still but odds are against more than 160 innings.

J Smoak: non tendered and then resigned. I actually expected something like this. But no genius there. All non tendered or options bought players have value, maybe, but only at a lower price. Teams are hoping for a bargain, IMO.

I looked at a lot of the press on the available non tenders. The injured guys, TJ recovering, have to expect a discount not a raise. If Arb is offered it means a raise, according to the rules I believe. That is not going to happen,a raise is unlikely. Except for Bill Risley from the Jay's past.

I think AA will go there.

I don't know if it's really necessary to do the extra back-of-napkin work for Dickey. He allowed three unearned runs as a direct result of passed balls last year; two were runs scoring from the passed ball itself, and another was a dropped strike three that ended up scoring on a HR. If you tack those on as earned runs, it's a 3.84. Keep in mind as well, his 12 this year was a particularly high unearned run year for him - his average for the four seasons prior was 7.75 (or 0.3317 Unearned Runs per 9, and still 0.3665 UnRuns/9 including last year's anomaly, driven by a wacky May). For a comparison, over his career, Mark Buhrle has 0.3938 UnRuns/9. The league average was 0.3368 UnRuns last year, and 0.3407 over the last five years.

This napkin now needs to go back under my beverage before I scuff the coffee table.

This quote on the Donaldson trade made me happy:

"Consider this ranking a reflection of his hypothetical value should the Blue Jays turn around and trade him again and not a verdict on what the A’s actually got for him, which most industry insiders agree wasn’t much."

http://grantland.com/features/2014-mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-2/

Random thoughts and observations:

- The Jays still need a high-quality starting pitcher. This might well be a better investment than adding mid-tier relievers, notwithstanding the "bullpen fever" in the media (Shi Davidi, for example)

- Dave Martinez has joined the Cubs as their bench coach - interesting

- I'm not particularly excited about Gibby at the helm in 2015. Maybe he'll rise to the occasion (somewhat), though

- Much as I've liked this off-season's moves, one or more of them is not going to turn out the way most of us expect. Just a thought.

Everyone should consider a raise to just $140.0 MM over $137.2 to be insignificant, basically the cost of doing business. A raise to $145.0 MM is significant but small. Something in the $147.5 MM and $150.0 MM seems like taking the next step. Shi's $119 MM is close enough to work with so consider $21.0 MM as minimum and $31.0 MM as maximum to work with.

That's $25.00 MM for a Starter and $6.0 or more MM for a Reliever. Then trade Navarro with/without something else if necessary for another Reliever.

"Much as I've liked this off-season's moves, one or more of them is not going to turn out the way most of us expect. Just a thought."

Yeah, but you never know... that could be Estrada pitching like it's 2012.

ricky romero would like access to the timewarp powers as well.

Estrada was very good in both 2012 and 2013, and last year, he had a good 2nd half, with September being outstanding - he didn't give up a run in the month. Really, the outlier in the last 3 years for him was the first half of last year. If you add up 2012, 2013, plus July-Sept 2014, his ERA was 3.64, WHIP was 1.11 and he struck out 303 in 321 innings. I've seen where he said that he kind of lost the feel on his pitches a bit at the start of last season. I think people are underestimating him.

Do we think Estrada is best utilized in the bullpen, or should the Jays try to maximize his value by trying him as a starter, in spring training at least?

It will be interesting to see how Happ does in Seattle. He had a very good second half last year, marred only by a high HR rate - a tendency that should be mitigated somewhat by Safeco.

A.A.'s work just got harder and the cost of business is going up.

At 2B, we are on plan B, as Devon Travis may not be ready. What I'm calling plan B is closer to plan C. At CF, Dalton Pompey is plan A, we hope. Alternatives Kevin Pillar and Ezequiel Carrera are a big step down and might not be the answer. Is the Bench good enough? I know it is not, but I don't know how to make it better.

At 1B, Justin Smoak is plan B, because I think A.A. could do much better here. My issue is who is plan C here?

They need a stud Starter, front-line type, preferably a LHP. Even if everyone in the System turns out great, you can't have enough top flight Pitching.

A.A. is never going to say who he's after, whether Front-line Starter, Top Closer or stud Set-Up Man, for fear or driving up prices.

As I said, from here on, A.A.'s job gets much harder, not easier.

Bluejay prospectus is out with their top 10 for Jays.
Sanchez number 1 over Norris. Time for a new thread?

I suspect all 5th starter candidates - Estrada, Sanchez, Norris, Redmond, etc. - will be stretched out in spring just in case.  You can always pull back and put them in for 1-2 innings in the pen if needed, but it is much harder to re-ramp them up to starter strength.  You want as many ready as possible also as a 'just in case' for injuries to anyone in the rotation (knock on wood). 

Also, check Daniel Norris' twitter feed. His two comments since the trade - "Opportunity.", "Never Stop Grindin.".   He knows a ML job is there for the taking and he wants it.  That is what I like to see in a kid.  And to prove he is a kid there is a big picture of him with a giant lollypop from Chuck E. Cheese on his twitter feed with the comment...
Yall thought I was joking? Check out my loot. #vampireteeth #Lollipop #couldawonmorebutmomsaidihadtobehomeby9 #

"I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays just release him before arbitration and use the money to get more."
What? There is no way this happens. The hit they take at offense is more than made up for by his defense. They basically are getting Melky level value for 1/5th the cost at 1/5th the term. Saunders + $12M of other players is worth more than Melky. Way more.

Estrada is an interesting case.  He's been a poor first half pitcher (.252/.312/.473) and a great second half pitcher (.230/.273/.368) with vastly different W/K and HR rates.  In 2012, he started out in the bullpen and was very good until late April and moved to the rotation for 6 bad starts. He then missed five weeks with a right quad strain and then was good in the rotation until the end of the year.  In 2013, he started the year in the rotation and was bad until early June when he went out with a right hamstring strain for two months.  He returned to the rotation in August and was very good the rest of the year.  In 2014, he started the year in the rotation and was good until mid-May.  He totally fell apart until mid-July (at which point his seasonal ERA was 4.96) and then was moved to the bullpen where he was mostly pretty good.

He is 31 years old.  Personally I would start him off in the pen until (at least) the weather gets warm.  If you're going to use him as a starter, you don't want to go more than two times through the order. 

I'm pretty sure the Jays will pick up Dickey's option if he has a similar year to last year. The high probablity of health in a SP is valuable, especially at Dickey's price.

Why do the Jays need an ace? This playoff saw the emergence of an ace in Bumgarner, but how many other aces pitched like 5th starters this playoff? Kershaw, Lester and Shields all had very poor perfromances this year.
If the Jays have 25M left to spend, I would much rather they improve the BP and 2B then spend it all on 1 starter.

In the playoffs, it is especially important how well the club's top 4-5 pitchers throw.  The off-days allow extra work for a club's best pitchers (which naturally leads to a discussion of how great Mariano Rivera was).  I have a lot of confidence that someone like Sanchez could be devastating in the playoffs in a relief role, and no confidence that he could be so in a starting role.  With luck, the Blue Jays core will be Stroman, Hutchison, Buehrle and Sanchez by year-end.  Maybe Cecil or Estrada takes a step forward to be the 5th.

It would be great if we can get an ace, but between Stroman, Hutchison and Sanchez we should get at least one ace-like start every time through the rotation.
I like the idea of Sanchez starting in the rotation and moving to the pen for the second half as his innings mount. If all goes well, Norris would be promoted to the rotation at that time.

If we had not traded Nolin & Graveman we could have had them plus Sanchez & Norris starting in AAA, as a possibility.
Nolin has already been very good as a starter in AAA when healthy.
Graveman also has outstanding numbers in AAA.
Norris pitched 22.2 Innings, 14 hits, 8 BB & 38 SO, again excellent numbers. Fantastic numbers?
Sanchez at AAA did not have great numbers, relative to the other 3. So he would be a maybe, as an outstanding SP to start the season at AAA.

IMO anyone putting up great AAA numbers needs a ML opportunity. Lets see if he can succeed. 4 rookies in your rotation is dangerous. 4 rookies in your pen is probably just as dangerous.

Liam Hendricks is the same, great AAA numbers, but he could not succeed in the Majors to date. I think he is out of options. If so, what to do.

I do not have a good point to make. If the 4 rookies do pitch in the Majors in 2015 and reasonably well and Oakland & Toronto are contenders at the trade deadline and on Sept 1, then I could have good points.
Good depth & they are cheap. Maybe even good trade chips.

I do not have a good point to make, too. Per bpoz, barring surprise during ST, after ST:
Sanchez to start in AAA as SP ?
Norris and Hendricks to start in MLB bullpen.
Pompey to start in AAA
Pillar to start in MLB bench

Without considering future seasons, getting a (former or current) all-star CF or a closer with previous closing experience ? Grady Sizemore signed with the Phillies for 2M. Getting an ace SP or 2B shall affect future seasons. As most of us know, Reyes, Goins, Izturis and Tolleson all play middle IF.

If the streak of getting more Canadian to play for the Jays is to be continued, how about John Axford or Jesse Crain ? The former previously close in the NL Central. Besides, a list of Canadian who could contribute in 2015 ?

John Axford, former CL,
Jesse Crain, RP
Scott Diamond SP
Shawn Hill RP/SP
Ryan Dempster RP/SP
Rene Tosoni OF
Nick Weglarz OF

Could Buffalo Bisons have an all Canadian outfield in 2015 ? Weglarz LF Pompey CF Tosoni RF. Interestingly, outside of MLB regulars, quite a number of Canadians have reached the MLB/AAA level. Kottaras is another example.

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IMO anyone putting up great AAA numbers needs a ML opportunity.
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Does this idea extend to players outside of Jays' organization ? The Royals signed Balbino Fuenmayor, so at least more than 1 MLB organization would sign minor league talents from outside for 2015.

Ezequiel Carrera led the 2014 IL in SB; his OBP and OPS were respectable (.387, .809) so he could be a bench MLB OF; Interestingly, Pillar is second to Carrera while both hit, getting on base ans steal bases respectably. the Jays did sign Carrera. Would Ricardo Nanita still be considered for a bench job ? Bautista LF, Saunders RF (switching the corner OF defense), Pillar in CF. Carrera looking in from the bench. Pompey in AAA looking in.

Matt Hague is on the 40-men roster.

On Buffalo Bisons:

From the Mexican League, Cory Aldridge had hit in video game fashion 1.122 OPS but performed as average AAA batter in Buffalo. Does this downward change of performance suggesting signing Mexican League players almost must go through the test of regular season AAA or AA playing time ?

Along the rationale of signing Carrera and Aldridge, are 1B Sandy Madera, OF J. C. Linares, OF Chris Roberson mostly good for AAA depth ?

From the PCL, Is Brock Peterson interesting ? He can play LF/1B.

Not that it really matters, but I watched Nick Weglarz play all summer for the Brantford Red Sox of ICBL. In my opinion, he is far from being close to a AAA caliber player at this point in his career.

That's hilarious. I used to play in that league. Brantford always had former MiLB players on their team, who were getting paid. I got paid in free pizza after games and hot dogs and Gatorade between double headers (I played for the London Majors).

I just read that the Jays sent money along with Happ for Saunders, and it was speculated that it may have been the difference between Happ and Saunder's 2014 salary. Not confirmed how much though.

Woah.  If the Jays sent several million to Seattle along with Happ, why did this not come out until now?  Poor reporting by Jays beat reporters who failed to ask the right questions?  Or deliberately covered up by Anthopoulos?   (Unless the report is wrong, but it originates with a Seattle reporter who covers the Mariners full-time and seems to have good sources on the Mariners.)

"If the Jays have 25M left to spend, I would much rather they improve the BP and 2B then spend it all on 1 starter."

I appreciate this sentiment, I just wonder how viable it is in the current market. Weeks, Lowrie, Drew, and Cabrera are what I can see as 2B options on the FA market - would 25m spent on Asdrubal + Miller + 2nd RP piece be better than 25m spent on Lester, considering that signing Lester effectively creates a couple of relievers by limiting the need to use all those potential starters in the rotation?

Either way, I'm pretty sure Lester is a pipe dream. Martin was a top FA but beating the market only required taking the guarantee to a 5th year. With Lester and Toronto you are likely looking at 7 years minimum. Scherzer and Boras aren't coming here either, so I don't think you're landing an ace on the FA market.

Another viable bat for the OF/DH and a reliever are where I anticipate the $ being spent, if the FA route is being used. That's probably not the case, though, as it's clear AA always has many balls in play and it's impossible to predict which way he'll turn.

Congratulations to old friend Kevin Cash on his new job as Rays manager.  I guess the recommendation that he made to the Indians about Yan Gomes helped him. 

Carrera is an interesting one.  Lifetime in the majors (most playing time at 24/25 but 70+ PA last year) has hit 253/305/340 for an 82 OPS+ 25-7 SB-CS.  His defensive WAR is 0, overall WAR 0.9.  Good AAA depth for the Jays as he wouldn't be a disaster for a few weeks if injuries happen.  Makes me think of a slower Otis Nixon.

Yankees just signed Miller. 4 years $36 million.

Mike, that's an interesting point on Estrada. His opponents' OPS first 3 times facing them in a game as a starter goes like this: .646 .735 .833, so as you say, the 3rd time through isn't very good..

Hutchison also shows a similar pattern in opponents OPS first 3 times through: .675 .757 .826. Buehrle, Dickey and Stroman show no major drop the 3rd time through the order (looking at career stats).

Did Cash set a record for fastest transition from player to manager? He was playing in the minors as recently as 2011.

Fastest non-superstar-player, at least, since you've got a few player/managers like Rose & Robinson. Guys with only 246 MLB games usually have to spend a few years riding buses in the minors.

I'd be scared signing Miller to a 4 year $9 mil per year deal myself.  His K/9 over the past 3 years in the pen has been 'WOW' at 13.6 but his BB/9 rate the past 3 is 4.5-5.0-2.5.  I'd be very nervous about a guy who was _that_ wild just a year earlier (lifetime 4.9 BB/9 in majors mostly as a starter).  Still, if anyone can afford it the Yankees can.  Pretty much locks them into being over the $189 million level which means they won't cut their luxury tax for awhile.

But boy could the Yankees have a killer pen for K's between Miller, Dellin Betances, and (if resigned) David Robertson as Robertson had 13.4 K/9 and Betances 13.5.  Funny thing is Betances and Miller are the types AA hired a ton of pro-scouts to find, guys who were pretty much available for nothing a few years ago I suspect but now are killer. 

Nice day for the Yankees - I like both the trade & signing - both came in under my cost estimation.

I thought Brad Ausmus might be faster than Cash, but he retired after 2010, spent three years as a consultant with the Padres, and got hired by the Tigers in Nov 2013 with no experience.

So basically the exact same as Cash (played in 2011, hired in 2014). Although at least Cash was a bullpen coach.

Mike, that's an interesting point on Estrada. His opponents' OPS first 3 times facing them in a game as a starter goes like this: .646 .735 .833, so as you say, the 3rd time through isn't very good..

Cumulatively, I think it's fair to say that there's an endurance issue with Estrada.  He has done very well in September (and pitched a lot then).  His stuff probably plays even better against the call-ups.  His pattern reminds me quite a bit of Carlos Villanueva.

I'm assuming the Yankees will not re-sign Robertson and instead will take the draft pick + Miller instead of Robertson + no comp pick. Nice little maneuver in my opinion.

Kind of like Saunders+ draft pick vs. Cabrera and Happ and no draft pick and a big bag of cash (Cabrera's long-term cost vs. Saunders' long-term cost less the cash sent with Happ). 

Weeks, Lowrie, Drew, and Cabrera are what I can see as 2B options on the FA market

92-93, there are several international free agents that could fit for us at 2b next year - Cuban vets Hector Olivera and Jose Fernandez have had a lot of success and both recently defected, although they are in a limbo state at the moment, and Andy Ibanez is a 21 year old looking for a big league contract - although that probably means the Yanks with them blowing past the IFA limit already this year.  SS Jung-Ho kang was MVP in Korea, and Takashi Toritani from Japan profiles as a quality utility guy.

AA always surprises me, so I could see him going the international route at 2b. 

A question:iIf a high profile 2B or reliever has been signed, how can the MLB team -- the Jays -- give enough MLB playing time to own prospects ?

AA always surprises me, so I could see him going the international route at 2b.

If he always surprises you, it would be reasonable to expect he won't go the route you see him going towards. Maybe he gets Roberto Alomar to unretire, or he plays Edwin at 2b.

Or something else thoroughly surprising.

Some interesting names:

Eric Thames hit very well in South Korea.

Wladimir Balentien hit very well in Japan, highest OPS of both the Central and Pacific leagues.

Yamaico Navarro hit very well in South Korea and was the MVP of the postseason Championship Series as a 2B.

Dennis Sarfarte saves 37 games in Japan, highest K/9 of both the Central and Pacific leagues.

Scott Mathieson from Vancouver, BC saved 30 games with Yomiuri Giants, second to Sarfarte in K/9 but leader in the Central League. 99mph pitch on September 10, 2014 for closing a 3-1 win for the Giants.

Nice day for the Yankees - I like both the trade & signing - both came in under my cost estimation.

To each their own! I'm quite happy to see the Yankees spinning their wheels with a bottom-third shortstop, and setting themselves up for regret with a big commitment to a pitcher who hasn't remotely proven himself to be the rare reliever who is consistently elite.

That's probably why the commitment isn't all that big. I mean, it's a fair bit of money, but it's not the end of the world if it doesn't work out.

Relievers can be so unpredictable. Excellent bullpen arms often emerge out of semi-obscurity (Scott Downs, Wade Davis). And, of course, lots of brand-name relievers turn out to be busts (Bill Caudill, BJ Ryan, Coco Cordero).

Everyone wants the Jays to spend on the bullpen, but doing this doesn't always guarantee results. Look at how the Jays built their strong 2013 relief corps. It can be done on the cheap, although sometimes it pays to spend on a key piece or two like a Koji Uehara.

Further to my questions about the millions of dollars reportedly sent to Seattle by the Jays in the Happ trade:  Mike Wilner is now saying that the Jays "never talk" about the money involved in trades.  That's odd, because I'm sure I've seen reports on specific dollar amounts involved in previous trades.  Perhaps the Jays just wait for the dollar amounts to leak out in the media and then simply refuse to deny it, which is an indirect confirmation.  But it makes it difficult for us to assess the Jays payroll.  If money was included in the Happ trade, does it count against the 2015 payroll?  What about the new report from McCown claiming that the Jays lost a substantial amount of money in 2014 and Rogers was unhappy about it?  Is this a foreshadowing of more payroll parameters?

Fortunately we have an easy litmus test to find out whether "parameters" exist. The litmus test is: do the Jays spend money in the next 2 months for the remaining holes in the bullpen and 2B and DH/1B (and probably the rotation too), or do they opt purely for low-budget moves such as trading Navarro and picking up a few fringe players such as Smoak on low salaries?  If they do the latter, we'll know that the owners are back to their penny-pinching ways (despite my earlier exuberance over the apparent signals sent by the $82-million for Russell Martin).

In all honesty, the Jays need to spend money.  If they trade more prospects -- after trading Nolin, Graveman and Barreto -- they're in danger of thinning out the farm system too much.  They've also traded Happ and Lawrie, and there's very few other Jays who could be logically traded, aside from Navarro.  To acquire key players for the bullpen or 2B or the rotation, a logical source (though not the only source) is the free-agent market and the international market.  And the current payroll (even including arbitration projections) is still $18-million lower than last year. And Beeston has promised a higher payroll.  So, no excuses: spend money, or the credibility of Beeston and Rogers will take yet another hit.

Sometimes the Player you want is only available via Trade; and sometimes only via Free Agency. The best Second baseman are expensive, but are not Free Agents and must be traded for. Front-line Starters are expensive, but are cheaper in Free Agency as it only cost$ Ca$h.

You can't have enough Front-line Starters, the more, the better it is. My issue is we've traded a LHP and are replacing him with a rookie RHP, who will be a much better pitcher, for a net loss. The only other LHP is Buehrle, who a Free Agent after this year. All we have to replace him is another rookie LHP, who will be better, for another net loss. Lester, Hamels and Price have Value far exceeding equally talented RHP just by being LHP, and Lester only costs Cash and not an added Draft Pick.

I have no idea who A.A. is going after, but prices just skyrocketed with the Miller signing. Both AAV and Term have increased significantly. The most important part of this Team's needs are being acquired last, which might be a mistake. But then, when was better? Who's the best target? If you can't pitch in the upper 90's, A.A. shouldn't acquire then. If they don't have a record of effectiveness, A.A. shouldn't acquire them. And if A.A. has to hold his nose and take anti-nausea medication to sign Relievers because of AAV or Term, so be it, get it done.

People who like to complain about some aspect of the Team, despite all the upgrades, will always do so. Nothing is ever good enough, and all will go wrong. What a bunch of nonsense.

1. Justin Smoak (1B) will have power, might hit a wee bit better and will be better defensively than Lind or Encarnacion, besides being taller. That's an upgrade. How good it gets, no one knows?
2. Russell Martin (C) may/may not be better offensively than Navarro. He will however be a massive upgrade defensively. He will make our Pitchers better.
3. Josh Donaldson (3B) might not be as good defensively as Lawrie, but he's close. Lawrie turned Reyes into an average SS when he played Third. We won't miss that with Donaldson at Third. He will however be a massive upgrade offensively.
4. While Michael Saunders (LF) plays corner OF best, he can play CF well enough (if needed). He may not hit as well as Cabrera, he will have more power. HE will be much cheaper than Melky with a more controllable term, and he will be a big upgrade defensively.

I really like what's happened here, and how A.A. worked his deals. There always will a spending limit with all teams, and some provision to exceed that limit, even with this Team. It never hurts to be economical when possible, that's good business, but having limits can make things make harder than they should be. That's especially important this offseason. Right now, Russell Martin (C), Edwin Encarnacion (DH), Josh Donaldson (3B) and Jose Bautista (RF) are each, one of the very best in Baseball at their position. That's big time. What happens next is more important, and A.A. needs to be right.

"Wladimir Balentien hit very well in Japan, highest OPS of both the Central and Pacific leagues."

Wladimir is a very interesting player -- he would make an interesting subject for a book about international baseball, even now, when he is not yet done his career.

Examples, some good, some bad:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/42919186/wladimir-balentien-plays-for-netherlands-and-embodies-spirit-of-the-world-baseball-classic

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10288537/japan-homer-king-wladimir-balentien-arrested-florida

http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2013/09/11/wladimir-balentien-sadaharu-oh-home-run-record

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/17/wladimir-balentien-lastings-milledge-get-multiyear-deals-in-japan/

"Everyone wants the Jays to spend on the bullpen, but doing this doesn't always guarantee results"

that's understating the case.

check out the full list of medium to expensive RP signings the last few years and you'll see that RP purchase RARELY give any results at all.

Everyone wants the Jays to spend on the bullpen, but doing this doesn't always guarantee results. Look at how the Jays built their strong 2013 relief corps. It can be done on the cheap, although sometimes it pays to spend on a key piece or two like a Koji Uehara.

This is an odd comment in light of the fact that essentially the same personnel made up the sixth-worst bullpen in the Majors the following season.

The Jays got lucky in their 2013 bullpen, that's all.

Interesting looking at players who have talent but have something stop them here then they get it going elsewhere.  Dennis Sarfarte was too wild here - 6.1 BB/9 vs 9.9 K/9 in the majors (119 1/3 IP from 2006-2009) but in Japan from 2011 to 2014 he has BB/9 of 3.3 vs 11.0 K/9 in 236 1/3 IP.  In the minors from 2001 to 2010 he had 4.8 BB/9 vs 8.9 K/9.  Did he finally figure out where the strike zone is in Japan?  Maybe.  Depending on what he wants for coming back to the majors/minors I'd certainly take a flier on him (no more than $1 mil guaranteed though).

Scott Mathieson in Japan 2.8 BB/9 vs 10.7 K/9 from 2012-2014, in the majors 4.3 vs 7.0 in 44 IP.  Minors 3.2 vs 9.0 in 648 1/3 (96 starts, 105 relief).  So he was decent in the minors and Japan but had issues in limited time in the majors.  I suspect he might be more ready if given a shot.

When TB was winning they always seemed to pick up very important bull pen pieces from what was left over. K Farnsworth? Fernando Rodney?

We already have Cecil, Loup & possibly M Estrada & A Sanchez for the pen. Estrada will have to be used where ever he fits in best as a need. Hopefully he pitches well in that role. A Sanchez will strengthen our pen, but as a starter he has great potential. A role will be established by the end of ST. For now he will prepare as a starter during the off season. Sanchez is a very good asset and I expect him in the rotation this year or next.

Many of our best depth pieces are brand new and so unproven. Pompey, Travis and a multitude of young stud pitchers that start the year at AAA or AA. Or even Dunedin and earn a promotion to AA and then the Majors.

I expect a veteran or two, relievers to be added.

"...the same personnel made up the sixth-worst bullpen..."

As I see it, there were two differences:

One; Hentgen was replaced by Stanley, who was subsequently fired for the poor BP performance.

Two; the BP was throwing to a different catcher who was a notoriously poor low ball framer ... Santos, Delabar and McGowan were often making there low in the zone pitch but were not getting the call ... Martin will hopefully change that.

In the relief pitching market place, with the rising cost of BP arms, when does AA revalue and possibly revisit the personnel he had with their costs per abilities with the available free agent arms and their rising costs/talent and how does that cost effectiveness affect the barrel bottom strategy that AA is following ?

If AA's belief that the Jays lost out in past years by not being proactive early on, should a team with playoff aspirations then relegate its perceived weakness ( the Bull Pen) by adhering to the nebulous solution that is the gamble of 'dumpster diving' the leftovers.

On a tangential note, I'm looking forward to seeing how Martin works with Romero now that Romero has two good knees and is hopefully in good health/condition.

Just read at MLB Trade Rumors:Mariners Showing Increased Interest In Melky Cabrera which states they are offering something in the 4 years $57 million range but Cabrera wants that 5th year.  That works out to just over $14 mil a year.  No way I'd sign him for that as you'd be counting on his big 3 years (Royals, Giants, last year with Jays) as being his normal for those 4-5 years.  In all his other seasons FanGraphs has a peak value of $6.3 million.  This for a guy entering his age 30 season (so near peak) who has been caught on PED's during one of those 3 big years.  A guy who clearly has slowed in the field and really should be a DH now with limited time in the field.  So the Jays look to be getting that draft pick although Seattle might be a bit tougher in 2015 to beat for one of the wild cards.

My gut says Saunders will outperform Melky in 2015 and beyond, but I guess we'll see.

Great Starting Pitching would be incredible. IMO our farm is rich in pitching. But I could be over valuing our pitching prospects. If they have high ceilings and are successful at AA then they are ready or close to it for the Majors.
So how long will it take to deal with the learning curve? 20 starts in the Majors? Look at Cecil, Romero, Morrow Litsch, Marcum & Possibly McGowan as Samples. Add in H Alvarez, Drabeck & Z Stewart. Actually C Carpenter sure got a lot better, but how long did it take?

So if Mariners sign Melky in addition to Cruz, who gets their first rounder?

You don't get the other teams first rounder any more, they lose their pick. And the Jays get a supplemental round pick.

It'd get filed in a desk drawer at the MLB head office, never to be seen again. Both Toronto and Baltimore would get sandwich picks, which I believe are based on reverse order of finish like the rest of the draft.

jgadfly and Parker: a further possibility is that some relievers become less effective the year after they're heavily used. Showalter touched on this in an interview that 92-93 provided a link to before last year. He said the O's had done research that indicated that relievers who had been heavily used were more likely to be ineffective in their next season.

For example, Gibbons used Delabar a tonne in the first half of 2013 and he eventually got injured. Delabar came back later that year, but he just wasn't the same - nor was he the same in 2014. The phenomenon Showalter describes might or might not be applicable in Delabar's case, but it's at least a possibility.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Gibbons's tendency to fall in love with certain relievers and then use them until they break (Janssen in his previous go-around, Delabar, Cecil). I actually started to get worried about Sanchez late in the 2014 season, as Gibbons seemed to be starting to fall in love with him in the same way.

Didn't Janssen break when they tried to convert him back to a starter, or am I remembering that wrong?

Did Cash set a record for fastest transition from player to manager? He was playing in the minors as recently as 2011.

Tony La Russa beats him. La Russa played in the minors in 1977, took over the AA affiliate for the White Sox in 1978 and was promoted to manager of the big club mid-way through 1979. La Russa had only 132 games as a player in the majors.

In 1978 Jim Fregosi started the year as a player for the Pirates, retired and then finished the year managing the Angels. Fregosi was a former all-star, so he's probably closer to Rose and Robinson than La Russa and Cash.

News:

Ryan Dempster calls it a career and will join Cubs front office.

About player experience in Japan:

Challenge of playing in Japan can be worthwhile -- Dec 1, 2014

Scott Mathieson [and Chris Leroux] share[s] Japanese experience with Women's National Team -- September 4, 2014

One; Hentgen was replaced by Stanley, who was subsequently fired for the poor BP performance.

Hard to say how much of an impact the BP coach has on the pitchers, but yeah, it's a fact that the bullpen was awesome with Hentgen and terrible with Stanley. Correlation /= Causation, but that's still an interesting factor to consider.

Two; the BP was throwing to a different catcher who was a notoriously poor low ball framer ... Santos, Delabar and McGowan were often making there low in the zone pitch but were not getting the call ... Martin will hopefully change that.

I have no doubt that all the pitchers will be improved by Martin's framing skill, but the guy behind the plate before Navarro was utterly horrible at every aspect of catching so I can't see how Navarro was a downgrade there.

Good point by greenfrog on Gibbons' riding certain pitchers into the ground... that to me is probably the most significant factor outside of the simple random nature of reliever stats.

Didn't Janssen break when they tried to convert him back to a starter, or am I remembering that wrong?

He arrived as a starter in 2006, had a fine year as a reliever in 2007 (70 appearances), and then missed all of 2008 with a shouldewr injury. When he returned in 2009, the idea was to make him a starter again, but that didn't last long.

Gibbons has indeed had a lot of pitchers - starters and relievers - break down under him. But I don't know if it's really more than would be expected. Pitching is hazardous to your health and it could quite easily be just random misfortune. There was no reliever Gibbons worked harder than Scott Downs, and Downs did his best work being used that way.

Bullpen handling was supposed to be one of Gibby's strength. In hindsight, It's a lot easier to manage with a guy like Doc who throws complete games and when 2 or 3 starters struggle every time you go through the rotation and it's the mop up duty guys that are overworked.

I particularly hate to see Loup facing so many right handed hitters. His arm is just being wasted out there.

Fact is, the Jays need a solid closer to take the pressure off the other relievers.
It's alright to sign a guy for an extra year if you remember to trade him after one year.

They also need to trade a catcher. For prospects, if nothing else.

"....Good point by greenfrog on Gibbons' riding certain pitchers into the ground... that to me is probably the most significant factor outside of the simple random nature of reliever stats....:

So, you're saying Gibbons ruined the bullpen in 2014 but he deserves no credit for the bullpen's success in 2013?  Somehow his "riding" of the pitchers was not a problem in 2013 but only in 2014?

Also, didn't you suggest a few minutes ago that the Jays were purely "lucky" with their bullpen in 2013?  If so, does "luck" explain only the successes, and plays no role in the failures?  You seem to be suggesting that the successes are just random, but the failures are due to Gibbons.

"....Everyone wants the Jays to spend on the bullpen, but doing this doesn't always guarantee results...."

"....Check out the full list of medium to expensive RP signings the last few years and you'll see that RP purchase RARELY give any results at all....."

All of that is just another way of saying that relief pitchers are unpredictable, or that they are less predictable than other players.  This is true.  Many of the cheap unheralded relievers turn out to be better than many of the higher-priced relievers.  But does this mean that the Jays should ignore the past performance of relievers when they are bolstering their bullpen? Of course not.  A reliever who was successful in 2014 still has a better chance of being successful in 2015 than a reliever who was poor or mediocre in 2014.  It wouldn't make sense for the Jays to acquire 3 relievers from the waiver wire and call it a day, even if there's a chance that the waiver-wire acquisitions might turn out to be as good as the higher-priced relievers.  As long as past history and recent performance means something, the Jays should look for relievers with a better track record -- and those pitchers are likely to be higher-priced.

That's not to say that the Jays should be spending $36-million on Miller or $40-million on Robertson. Lesser options, for a few million, can be valuable.  The Jays got good value from Darren Oliver in 2012 after signing him as a free agent for $4-million.  One or two free agents like that could be useful.  But the biggest key is to have depth in the system: at least 10 or 12 potential relievers in the whole system, including in Buffalo and New Hampshire as well as in Toronto, so that the Jays can plug holes in the bullpen when pitchers slump or get injured.  These don't have to be expensive.  Stock the system with plenty of unheralded guys like Neil Wagner and Todd Redmond and (going back a few years) Jesse Carlson. Acquire a range of these kinds of guys, along with the slightly costlier acquisitions and the younger prospects, and the bullpen can be rebuilt.  It's not entirely luck or random chance.

top RP signings from the last couple of offseasons:

1. R.Soriano $14.0m/2yrs: 66.2ip, 3.11era, 0.5war & 62.0ip, 3.19era, 0.7war
2. J.Nathan $10.0m/2yrs: 58ip, 4.81era, 0.2war
3. M.Rivera $10.0m/1yrs: 64.0ip, 2.11era, 1.5war
4. B.Wilson $10.0m/1yrs: 48.1ip, 4.66era, -0.4war
5. J.Benoit $7.8m/2yrs: 54.1ip, 1.49era, 1.2war
6. J.Broxton $7.0m/3yrs: 30.2ip, 4.11era, -0.5war & 58.2ip, 2.30era, 0.5war
7. F.Rodney $7.0m/2yrs: 66.1ip, 2.85era, 1.2war
8. J.Affeldt $6.0m/3yrs: 33.2ip, 3.74era, -0.4war & 55.1ip, 2.28era, 0.4war
9. M.Adams $6.0m/2yrs: 25.0ip, 3.96era, -0.4war & 18.2ip, 2.89era, 0.3war
10. G.Balfour $6.0m/2yrs: 63.2ip, 4.92era, 0.0war
11. J.Howell $5.6m/2yrs: 49.0ip, 2.39era, 0.3war
12. B.Logan $5.5m/3yrs: 25.0ip, 6.84era, -0.3war
13. S.Baker $5.5m/1yrs: 15.0ip, 3.60era, -0.1war
14. J.Smith $5.3m/3yrs: 74.2ip, 1.81era, 1.0war
15. E.Mujica $4.8m/2yrs: 60.0ip, 3.90era, 0.4war
16. K.Fujikawa $4.5m/2yrs: 12.0ip, 5.25era, 0.2war & 13.0ip, 4.85era, 0.0war
17. J.Axford $4.5m/1yrs: 54.2ip, 3.95era, -0.5war
18. K.Uehara $4.3m/1yrs: 74.1ip, 1.09era, 3.3war
19. S.Burnett $4.0m/2yrs: 9.2ip, 0.93era, -0.1war & 0.2ip, 13.50era, 0.0war
20. J.Soria $4.0m/2yrs: 23.2ip, 3.80era, 0.2war & 44.1ip, 3.25era, 1.5war



I mean there's a handful of successes in there but largely it's a lot of money spent on utterly replaceable crap.

From that list of free-agent relievers, it looks like about 12 of 20 were successes -- or at least better than "utterly replaceable crap" anyway.

Last post on player experiences in Japan, this one on those in South Korea:
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SP Rick van den Hurk
highest K/9 among starters, aged 29
8 innings 8-0 shutout: 14 plus minutes of video shall be good enough of how foreign pitching fare against Korean hitting, maybe giving a clue of how foreign pitching would have changed for the better (or worse) away from MLB  ?
Dec 04 2014 --Dutch RHP Rick van den Hurk leaves Korea for Japan for 2 year 3.34 M

comment: but his BB/9's during his early professional seasons (early 20s) were pedestrian but his new salary shows a price range if the Jays would sign these players from transferring to Japan and S. Korea.
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SP Andy Van Hekken:
The only 20 games winner in 2014 South Korea
Andy Van Hekken blossoms into best pitcher in Korean baseball league
August 18 2014 -- Riding a 14 game win streak means his pitching excelled or Korean hitting did not ?
Game 1 highlights of the Korean [postseason championship] series: Van Hekken VS Van den Hurk, including Yamaico Navarro 2R HR off Van Hekken in bottom 3rd. Vinny Rottino contributed also
good English from reporter.
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2B Yamaico Navarro, besides as a postseason MVP, he walks more than being struck out in regular season play.

Hit a 3R HR in Game 6, record tying 4 HRs throughout the postseason series, hence the Korean series MVP.

A teammate of Juan Francisco in 2013 Dominican Winter League.
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Jairo Asencio highest K/9 among all pitchers

His MLB BB/9 numbers were from average (4.4/4.2) to wild (7.7). Probably just like Dennis Sarfarte in 2014 Japan, Asencio finally figured out.

2 strikeouts in 1 inning in South Korea 2014
2 strikeouts on Joey Bats and EE, grounded out Kawasaki in 1 inning as an Oriole 2013 against the Jays.
pitching recently in Dominican Winter League: 87mph last pitch strikeout of a 6-3 win

comment: so he presumably has kept up his pitching performance during 2013 and 2014.
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Corner IF Jorge Cantu is still around
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Once highly touted prospect OF Felix Pie is figuring out in S. Korea: .373. OBP, 897 OPS.

Is David Robertson worth his money? He's pitched in the biggest market in Baseball for his entire career, so I think he can handle massive pressure. He took over for a Super Star Legend and pitched extremely well. He's been remarkably consistent over most of his career and averages 65.0 IP per year. That all has good value and is exactly what A.A. should be looking for.

Is David Robertson worth his money? Yes, up to 5 Years and up to an AAV of $15.0 MM.

No to Robertson. Too much money and term for that role. My most appealing candidates would be: Rodriguez, Romo, Gregerson, Stauffer, Motte, Wright......take a couple of fliers on lesser guys. I think Axford is a possibility in January on a minor league deal if no-one offers a major league deal which is likely

Relievers can be so unpredictable. Excellent bullpen arms often emerge out of semi-obscurity (Scott Downs, Wade Davis). And, of course, lots of brand-name relievers turn out to be busts (Bill Caudill, BJ Ryan, Coco Cordero).

I agree with some of that. However, I don't really think BJ Ryan was a bust. Yes, he got injured, but before the injury, he was lights-out. In 2006, he threw 72 innings at a rate of 335 ERA+. A WHIP of 0.857. bWAR (baseball reference - am I using that right?) of 3.5 - for a reliever. Now, some say they knew the injury was coming, etc., so there is that.

Even Bill Caudill had an ERA+ of 142 his first year - not elite, but still pretty good. It was the next year that was bad.

But, neither were nearly as bad as Coco's ERA+ of 74.

I would call Ryan a bust because of the size of his contract (5/45, I think - which would probably be about 5/55 or 5/60 in today's baseball dollars). The Jays got one brilliant season and one OK one from BJ, which was a major disappointment (comparable to the Romero situation).

Compared to Ryan's contract, I think Miller's contract is relatively low-risk.

I think you're being generous, ChinaFan - of the 27 seasons I listed there, maybe 7 or 8 (10 max) I would deem worth the salary paid.

For the record, I am perfectly comfortable going with Cecil as the closer next year. His curve was one of the best K pitches in baseball last year (arguably the best), and his velo is up too. And we know he has closing experience and is comfortable in that role.

still need more arms for the 'pen but I'm not sure there's any out there that would necessarily be a better option for closer than Cecil is.

I think Cecil is too risky as closer......I too like his curve but if off, he is quite hittable......It is not necessary to know who the closer will be going into ST....as long as we have a number of good relievers, it can be sorted out. I would probably trust KRod , Soriano or Romo more than Cecil. Gregerson is more of a set up man but might thrive if given the closing opportunity. Of course, someone might be available in trade of whom we are presently unaware.

"I have no doubt that all the pitchers will be improved by Martin's framing skill, but the guy behind the plate before Navarro was utterly horrible at every aspect of catching so I can't see how Navarro was a downgrade there."


Parker, StatsCorner begs to differ. JPA actually was a plus pitch framer in 2013 with +0.92 per game, vs Navarro's -1.46 per game last year.

Last 2yrs as RP:

B.Cecil: 114.0ip, 11.5k/9, 3.9bb/9, 0.5hr/9, .302babip, 52.5gb%, 2.76era, 2.63fip, 2.77xfip, 2.60siera


not gonna find many RP that have done better than that.

Doubt that AA or Gibby agrees with u....think there is more chance of seeing Sanchez as closer than Cecil though I do think Cecil is a good 7/8 inning guy. Roles do not need to be decided now in any case.

I think Janssen & Cecil are very good pitchers, by my ways of evaluating.
1) I do not think they get nervous.
2) They do what they want. That means, throw something for a strike or off the plate ie very good location.
3) I thought both would be very good starters. Janssen was a good starter when he first came up but he had injury/wear & tear issues. His back and maybe shoulder.
Cecil had that great 2010 as a starter. Velocity issues happened.

So then, how good or bad was McGowan last year? That very long injury issue, I mean setback after setback. That had to mess with his head, confidence and whatever. So 2014 has to be considered a huge success. His first 8 appearances were as a starter, I think that can be considered asking for trouble, like a re injury. Strictly as a reliever he was "good" IMO, some will agree and some will not. I really have an issue with overall numbers, I look at monthly results. "Results" mean it actually happened. So you load the bases or or leave 2 on board, the next guy strands everyone or lets them all score. This affects your monthly number. So 10 IP 4 ER or less maybe even zero depending on the next guy.

Well never mind all the number crunching, it has value but then so does the term "thats baseball". If you know what I mean.

Parker, StatsCorner begs to differ. JPA actually was a plus pitch framer in 2013 with +0.92 per game, vs Navarro's -1.46 per game last year.

Fair enough. I didn't do the research, but in retrospect I do actually remember a mention about how framing was the only catching skill where Arencibia wasn't an abysmal failure. I probably thought it was a joke, because it seems hard to believe he could actually be a positive in that regard...

At any rate, thanks for the correction.

If A.A. acquires any further Players on the Trade Market, it must be for Navarro with/without someone else, because our depth in anything but Pitching is poor, and that's getting thin.

Any acquisitions will probably be made on the Free Agent Market. Unfortunately Andrew Miller sets the Market as a Non-Closer/Set-Up Pitcher with four years and $9.0 MM AAV. Not one Reliever on the Market will take a one year contract, those with talent will want two or more. Set-Up/Closer types will not be satisfied with less than three years at an annual AAV in the $5.0 MM - $9.0 MM range. And they will get it from someone. Non-Setup/Non-Closer types will be a bit less, but not much. And they will get it from someone. It is here where age matters. David Robertson will 30 in April; Francisco Rodriguez will be 33 in January; Sergio Romo will be 32 in March; Rafael Soriano will be 35 in a week. Non-Closers aren't much better, just check the Stats yourself. It's very difficult to get the best you can, so you go by track record; where have they pitched, how long, how good and any other stats needed. Some decisions are made by how old someone is at the end of the Contract.

Two of A.A.'s major acquisition were each one of the very best at their position in all of Baseball. To ignore the ability to do the same elsewhere is a mistake.

I think steamers projection for Sanchez is probably spot on.

If you looks back on a young AJ Burnett he put up a 4.79 ERA, 6.21 K/9, 4.79 BB/9 as a 23 year old in his first real year starting. He like Sanchez was a FB/Curve guy who had to work on his change-up in the majors.

Even if it takes Sanchez takes some time to become a more complete pitcher at the majors I'm alright with that. He's the wildcard in the rotation the either breaks out in a big way or he fills the role of a 5th starter.

According to Bob Elliott neither the Jays or Mariners will confirm but it appears that Toronto will pay the difference in salary of Happ and Saunders. This is expected to be in the $3.7M range. So much for using the savings towards upgrading the team in other area's. I really hope the payroll settles in the $150M range.

I think they must sign one (preferable two) of Robertson, Romo, Janssen, Soriano, and Gregerson. This team is close. I would also be ok leaving Sanchez in the pen (where he was lights out) and invest in Liriano but preferably McCarthy and his high ground ball rate.

Here is the link to Elliott's piece
http://www.torontosun.com/2014/12/06/blue-jays-turn-focus-to-bullpen-arms

As a Giants fan, I'm pretty familiar with Romo. A few have mentioned him here, but I have some doubts as to his suitability for the Jays. He's a righty side arm thrower, and as such, he can be vulnerable to lefties, has started to give up a lot of home runs, and he gets a big boost from pitching in such a good pitchers' park. He'll be 32 before the start of next season, and I think the gas tank is getting low.

His OPS against, last year at home, was .423, but soared to .817 on the road. Similarly, his WHIP went from .659 at home, to 1.265 on the road. He gave up 9 HR's, by far the most of his career. Lefties OPS'd .777 against him. He gave up 6 HR's in just 107 AB's away from AT&T Park. If the Jays signed him, they'd have to be careful to use him when the opponent had a string of righties due up, and have Loup or Cecil ready to face a lefty. He'd be likely to give up a few HR's, especially at Rogers Centre, and so would be unsuitable for holding a 1 run lead late in the game, unless they were playing in a pitchers' park on the road.

He can be very effective, has a career WHIP under 1.00, has 61 saves the last 2 years, but I think the Jays should look elsewhere. He'd be a lot more valuable playing for the Giants again, or a team like San Diego that also plays in a death valley for hitters.

So, where are the Jays at now?
CA: Martin, Navarro, Thole
1B: Encarnacion or Smoak
2B: Travis, Goins, Izturis, Tolleson
SS: Reyes
LF: Saunders
CF: Pillar/Pompey
RF: Bautista
DH: Encarnacion or Navarro/Valencia/Smoak

Rotation: Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutchison, then Sanchez/Norris/Estrada/Hendriks/Redmond/Jenkins/whoever
Bullpen: Cecil, Loup, Redmond, Jenkins, Estrada, Delabar, Drabek, whoever
-----------
Closer is now the biggest hole
------
Cecil is too risky as closer......
-----
I don't have good idea but questions, and ...
Buffalo:
1B Robinson/Smoak
3B Hague
CF Pompey

Rotation; Sanchez
Bullpen: Colt Hynes, Cory Burns, Rasmussen, Gregory Infante, Tapera, Burke/Sarfarte, Schultz/Mathieson

Bo Schultz and Greg Burke to Japan for Dennis Sarfarte and Scott Mathieson. If Toronto decides to let these young pitchers (Jenkins, Drabek etc.) to run the show in Buffalo, veteran closers in Japan Sarfarte and Mathieson can take their bullpen spots. I think Sarfarte and Mathieson will be cheaper signings than an MLB closer.

By the end of ST 2015
1) can Valencia be trained for 2B ?
2) can Navarro be traded for 2B due to the win-now mode in 2015 ?
3) If Asian international signees are available, why settle for native Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean ? Due to the win-now mode, how signing about a closer and a starter who had tested waters there from North America and performed well ? Say if the Jays wants Scott Mathieson, could Bo Schultz/Greg Burke/Colt Hynes be traded to Japan for him ? Or trade Valencia for Wladimir Balentian: let Valenica figure out right handed pitching in Japan.  In other words, use international outings for MLB/AAAA batters and pitchers to keep some players fresh for use next season.
4) Because so many MLB capable Canadians are available this offseason
(RP/CL Axford, RP Crain ?, SP/RP Hill ?,  C Kottaras, SP/RP Leroux, SP Diamond, CF/RF Tosoni, LF/RF Weglarz ?, C Nickeas ?, C Robinson ? C Montz ? C Armstrong ?)
I think Buffalo or New Hamsphire can actually field an all Canadian outfield, paired pitchers and catchers.
5) Clint Robinson performed respectably in Dodgers AAA and ok in September callup; maybe he can play Dan Johnsoon's role of 2014 season: if EE or Smoak goes onto DL, he will be called up. Hague plays Valencia's role of 2014: a potential callup for 3B.
6) As noted in a previous post, Hutchison's opponent OPS go up one after the previous cycle of the lineup, can this be fixed by a short tenure in Buffalo ?
7) Because 2015 is a win-now mode, Jeff Francis shall be on MLB roster if he can provide some veteran starting pitching to back up Stroman, Hutchison and Sanchez

Robertson will get too expensive in my opinion. I'd look at K-Rod pretty seriously and Janssen or (if he burned bridges) Gregerson. I'd also be fine with one season of Sanchize as closer if we acquired a solid starter.

It's Sunday morning, anybody up for a cup of Joba??

No, not as our closer, but as 6-7th inning guy. He pitched fairly well in Det last season and only made $2.5M.

WHIP 1.29, K:BB 2.5, FIP 3.16 at age 28.

Would a $3M, $4M plus a $6M option on 2017 get it done?


PS totally agree with dan gordon and whiterasta latest posts.

Interesting article on TSN:
http://www.tsn.ca/report-blue-jays-seeking-replacement-for-beeston-orioles-gm-duquette-a-top-candidate-1.153944
It's hard to speculate why, but does this job start right away, January 1st, or later. Is Beeston being replaced, contract ending, retiring sooner than expected.

can Valencia be trained for 2B ?

Players -- especially 30-year old players -- typically do not move to the right on the defensive spectrum. Second basemen are typically failed shortstops, not ex-third basemen.

Because so many MLB capable Canadians are available this offseason

A team committed to winning should not give a tinker's cuss about a player's birth certificate.

Hutchison's opponent OPS go up one after the previous cycle of the lineup, can this be fixed by a short tenure in Buffalo ?

It's not clear how facing minor league hitters will help him to become better at facing major league hitters the third time through the lineup.

Because 2015 is a win-now mode, Jeff Francis shall be on MLB roster if he can...

Hard to reconcile "win now" and "Jeff Francis".

Heh. Like that bit about Francis <> win now.  Guys like him though are very valuable in AAA.  When injuries happen you want to have a good stockpile of guys with some ML experience (hopefully some successful) who can jump into the game without the wide eye rookie issue (see Sean Nolin's first start for a classic example).  With luck you get 2-4 games before the league goes 'oh yeah, this guy, all he did was change xyz' and start pounding on him. 

Right now the Jays have 3 non-roster invites (according to the Jays site): Jeff Francis, Jonathan Diaz, and Ezequiel Carrera.  Names on the 40 man we don't talk about around here (at least not as having a shot at the regular season roster): Cory Burns, Liam Hendriks, Colt Hynes, Rob Rasmussen, Bo Schultz, and Ryan Tepera among pitchers, Matt Hague and A.J. Jimenez (sorta - think I saw one person mention him this winter) among hitters.  I suspect a lot more spring invites are coming, especially to catchers, but impossible to know who at this point.

stoeten has posted tweets from Ken rosenthal and Buster Olney, saying

"The Blue Jays' ownership is actively seeking a replacement for longtime CEO Paul Beeston. Dan Duquette among candidates discussed."   which is promising, although they later mention Kenny Williams as a candidate, which is less promising.

With luck you get 2-4 games before the league goes 'oh yeah, this guy, all he did was change xyz' and start pounding on him.
-------
Could guys like him put out a Joey Bats miracle that settle guys as a MLB regular for good ?

The News about Rogers seeking out Beeston's replacement has dominated MLB Trade Rumours site for the last four hours, since it also appeared on TSN and ESPN, but not Sportsnet. Most people usually on this site are off doing normal brain-dead weekend stuff with families and friends. Perhaps that's why it's not getting a Post, let alone any discussion.

Ken Williams? Really? No thanks. Duquette is a fine choice and would simultaneously weaken a rival, but why are we having this discussion now and not when Friedman was available? Reminds me of the decision to hire Gibbons after Terry Francona went to the Indians in 2012.

In the end though whomever replaces Beaston's main job will be lobbying for payroll increases when appropriate. I'm not sure anyone will do as good a job as Beaston.

John IMO Rasmussen has a legit shot at bullpen duty and if we trade Navarro Jimenez is very much in the bench catcher race.

Most people usually on this site are off doing normal brain-dead weekend stuff with families and friends

Back from my zombie time on the treadmill all freaking alone just in time to hear that the Blue Jays are apparently interested in Duquette for Beeston's replacement.  Maybe Rogers is thinking that he will fill a Dombrowski-like role here and that they can save a few more shekels.  It's funny to see the ex-Expo connections popping up over and over again.

I'd love to see a baseball guy like Duquette in as president.  Just look at what Brendan Shanahan's being doing with the Leafs to get a sense of what a keen mind, in addition to the GM, can bring to an organization. 

Not a guy with a sports background, but tim Leweike did some great things with the Raps and TFC.  Definitely in favour of adding to the brain trust. 

There's a cool tidbit on Josh Donaldson courtesy of his former hitting coach Chili Davis as told to David Laurilia at fangraphs.

jerjapan, what has Shanahan done with the Leafs?

Anyone else nervous about our Starting Rotation depth? I have loved the trades so far, but was less thrilled about trading Happ without a major league replacement. I'm worried some (or all) of the following are going to happen:
- Buehrle or Dickey will fall off the 'age' cliff
- Strohman/Sanchez/Norris/Estrada will need TJ surgery
- any of the above will strain on oblique/get hit by a batted ball/fall down the dugout stairs/catch Ebola/...

Also, who will be the veteran pitcher on the staff for 2016 once Buerle moves on and and if Dickey's option isn't picked up. Methinks we do need a $$$ free agent signing or a trade to address this in the off season - or can this wait till the trade deadline?

On a lighter note, have a laugh with this one. (PS - I hope it's OK to post a link like this)
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2014/12/6/7344857/2014-toronto-blue-jays-holiday-special

Now Terry Ryan is being rumoured and Williams is reportedly out as a candidate.

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/07/twinsights-terry-ryan-toronto-blue-jays-radar/

The Blue Jays are usually so clannish in these types of hires, I'm surprised all these good candidates from outside the clan are being considered. I would have thought they'd look to promote the second employee they ever hired or something.

The Decemberists #7 are a pretty good birthday team courtesy of some recent additions:

C- Johnny Bench**
1B- Tino Martinez*
2B- Hobe Ferris
SS- Deacon White**
3B- Eric Chavez
LF- Alex Johnson*
CF- Shane Mack
RF- Yasiel Puig*

Bench- Tony Piet (IF), Ozzie Virgil (C), Hal Smith (3B/C), Rich Coggins (OF), Ryan Theriot (IF)

SP- Kyle Hendricks
SP- Dick Donovan*
SP- Don Cardwell
SP- Denny Galehouse
SP- Bo Belinsky
RP- Jim Austin
RP- Ed Morris
RP- Tom Lovett
RP- Saul Rivera
RP- Johnny Gee

Eric Chavez never made an All-Star team.  Weird.  Deacon White played very little shortstop, but he played just about everywhere else and I am confident that he'd be all right there.  Hobe Ferris was born in Trowbridge, UK; his real name was Albert.  By all accounts, he was a fine defender but did commit the first error in World Series history.   After a fine career, he worked as a car mechanic; somehow I can't see Chase Utley or Orlando Hudson doing that.  Times change. Alex Johnson was a batting champ of my youth, but also had quite a few Dick Allen-style run-ins.  Shane Mack was a 1st round draft pick of the Padres who had a couple of unsuccessful part-seasons with them as a centerfielder before the Twins nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft.  Between him and Johan Santana, the Twins have probably made the best use of the Rule 5 draft of any club.  The most famous of the pitching staff was Bo Belinsky, but not for his pitching.  He dated Mamie Van Doren, Ann-Margret, Tina Louise, Connie Stevens and Alyssa Milano.  Just kidding about Milano.  Dick Donovan was the best of them.  Doesn't that sound like a 1950s name?  He did indeed pitch his best from 1955-60. 

what has Shanahan done with the Leafs?

He cleaned house on the management side and hired Kyle Dubas, a young stats guru, along with several other forward thinking young execs.  The Leafs were/are a terrible possession team and always fared poorly according to modern metrics.  Dubas' hiring signified an interest in under the radar value free agents like Daniel Winnik - who's a stronger player according to modern metrics like Corsi than his traditional stats would suggest.  Hockey is obviously harder to measure than baseball, so think OPS or WAR when you think about Corsi - broad stats that emerged earlier in the analytic evolution of the sport.  . 

He also seems to have reigned in the coach, Carlyle, who is frustrating in the same way that Gibbons can be.  No more enforcers dressing every day, that sort of thing. 

".....Anyone else nervous about our Starting Rotation depth?....."

I've been repeatedly stating my own nervousness about rotation depth since the Happ trade, but I'm starting to come around to the idea that Sanchez might be ready -- mostly because the Jays seem so completely confident that he is ready.  Here's a Shi Davidi article from today in which the Jays explain why they are convinced that Sanchez can move into the rotation in 2015:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/aaron-sanchez-best-candidate-to-boost-toronto-blue-jays-rotation-winter-meetings/

If this is true, there's a lot less need for the Jays to acquire a big-ticket starter of the Lester or Shields type. They can save their payroll room for a reliever or two (and maybe a 2B or DH).  But I'd still like to see the Jays acquire one or two more depth pitchers of the Estrada or Hendriks or Redmond type who can serve in the bullpen or in Buffalo and be ready to step into the rotation if there are injuries.

but why are we having this discussion now and not when Friedman was available?

Too expensive? To get a guy like Friedman, you'd have to really want him and pony up for him, and corporate owners like Rogers, who know nothing about baseball, just aren't going to do something bold like that. They'll stick with a safe establishment type, perhaps whoever Beeston recommends (and Beeston sure won't recommend a big-time sabermetric type). And that might be fine anyway, just as long as Anthopoulos can run the baseball side without much interference.

"Maybe Rogers is thinking that he will fill a Dombrowski-like role here and that they can save a few more shekels."

Don't know about Duquette per se, but my Beeston conspiracy theory does involve Rogers saving shekels.

The last time $Cdn traded much below $US, MLB under Selig supposedly gave the Jays money as a sort of an equalization payment. Looks very much like the Jays more and more are in a similar position and may have to ask Selig's successor to pull some strings to receive financial relief again. Unfortunately, Selig's successor, Bob Manfred, was supposed to have been rather vociferously criticized by Beeston during the election process. Just a guess, but maybe getting rid of Beeston is an attempt at fence-mending by Rogers.

This, by the way, is why I've never been on board with getting rid of Beeston, even though I'm not particularly impressed with the guy. (He has his good points.) Because if you get rid of Beeston, or Anthopoulos as some have advocated -- then what? It's not going to mean our dream choice comes waltzing into town, it's going to mean Kenny Williams, or ... whoever. Might even turn out well but there's no way we could expect that in advance.

TangledUpInBlue, what has the current management team done to make you think they'd be any great loss? It can't be that they've competed effectively in the AL East, because that's not true at all. So what is it?

Seems a bit harsh, no? On paper, the Jays will be fielding an excellent lineup in 2015 that will include Reyes/Martin/Bautista/EE/Donaldson/Saunders/Pompey (with 2B and 1B/DH still areas of uncertainty), a half-decent rotation, and a farm system that is in good shape. The team hasn't won anything yet, but things are looking up in Toronto.

On paper, the Jays will be fielding an excellent lineup in $YEAR that will include $PLAYERS (with $POS1 and $POS2/$POS3 still areas of uncertainty), a half-decent rotation, and a farm system that is in good shape. The team hasn't won anything yet, but things are looking up in Toronto.

Adrian -- (a) I think, from a baseball standpoint, the current front office has done fine, first in rebuilding the farm system and then in making moves the last few years to turn the Jays into contenders (and I agree with Greenfrog above); but (b) even if you disagree, there's still the question of "then what?" That's the real point. We're not going to replace Beeston or Anthopoulos with whoever your dream candidate is, we're going to get instead... well... again, we don't know, but take a look at MLB Trade Rumors right now and we see the likes of Dan Duquette, Terry Ryan, and Kenny Williams.

Sorry, was busy being brain dead for a couple days. Anything fun happen this weekend?? Richard you slay/intrigue me.

Can't say I'm a Beeston fan, but if he was the one who pushed for and got the OK to end the Argo's lease so natural grass could be installed, there will be some positive legacy. The present budget is now at a more or less appropriate level.

On the other hand, I'm now wondering how much the tensions between Beeston and Rogers had to do with the inaction at the trade deadline last year. Also the decision to forego the Far East and concentrate solely on the Caribbean still puzzles me.

A.A. can be as confusing as anyone:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/anthopoulos-on-hitters-relief-market-robertson.html

The point about declining comment is standard and normal. Where he talks about signing Free Agents is supposed to temper feelings. He always discussed Free Agent Signings or Big Trades with Beeston and Higher-ups at Rogers, that won't change unless it becomes easier.

The Point about the new acquisition is meant to blur the fact that A.A.'s not comfortable with either AAV or Term or both. That might mean he's after a Starter, but why, I don't know.

The Robertson comment was so general, it's not a denial. A.A. is probably very interested in Robertson, just doesn't want to create any stir.

I can see a Starter signed, Robertson signed and Sanchez in the Bullpen joining a second Reliever signing. Sanchez will be stretched out in Spring Training but will start in the Bullpen. This Season is about winning. I think A.A.'s looking at everything, including CF, 2B and Bench.

Interesting names coming up...
Terry Ryan: GM Twins 1995 to 2007 (retired), then brought back in 2012 to present.  First 6 years were pathetic (4th or 5th each year out of 5).  Then from 2001-2007 they were 1st 4 times, 2nd once, 3rd twice sub 500 just once.  2012-14 though were bad (5th or 4th) as he started the rebuild process again.  He made a lot of mistakes in his first run (didn't offer a contract in time to draft pick Travis Lee thus lost him for example) but obviously figured something out and had a nice run and unlike Pat Gillick here left the team in good shape (next 3 years saw 2 1sts and 1 2nd). 

Jim Duquette : GM Expos 1992-93 then quit before 1994 started (built that great Expos team including the great DeShields for Pedro Martinez trade).  GM Boston 1994-2001 made the poor comment about Clemens being in the twilight of his career (loved Clemens staring him down after K'ing 18 Red Sox) but built a really good set of teams although had the dumb move of hiring Jimy Williams.  GM of Orioles 2012 to now - 4th or 5th from 1998 to 2011, under Duquette they are 2nd/3rd/1st.  MLB Trade Rumors says he really, really wants the job but is under contract for 3 more years and the owner won't let him go.

Kenny Williams: GM White Sox 2001-2012 then promoted to executive vice president.  Sox won 95 the year before he took over, but had 6 years of mostly poor play before that.  Twice in playoffs including a WS win (first since pre-Black Sox) with an up and down period and an ability to make Gord Ash look dumb (OK, not hard).  Very non-stats based, he does well but not 'wow' as a rule and confuses most of us but he does have that ring.  Like Duquette he is under contract (not sure how long) and the White Sox will not let him interview for the job.  He apparently considered resigning over it.

So 3 candidates who each have had a fair amount of success but only Williams has that World Series ring as a GM.  I figure AA and Gibbons are both gulping hard and know that 2015 is now a MUST win season for them as a new president will want to put their own signature on the team and replacing the GM and/or manager is an easy way to do so.  It will be interesting to see if that changes anything.

John, that should be Dan Duquette, not his cousin Jim.

As for AA gulping, I can't see him being out of work long no matter what happens. Gibbons on the other hand.....

MLB Trade Rumors is going 24 hours due to the Winter Meetings.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/blue-jays-interested-in-greg-holland-royals-open-to-offers-for-holland-wade-davis.html

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/anthopoulos-on-hitters-relief-market-robertson.html

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/blue-jays-eyeing-dan-duquette.html

I'm shifting to night-shift to I'm following what happening.

Latest on MLBTR has Elliott reporting the Jays are inquiring on Greg Holland. KC wants to relieve the amount it has invested in relief arms. They have been rumored to be looking for a right fielder with some pop and have been linked to Justin Upton, although meeting Atlanta's price may be tough for them. I'm thinking AA could end up doing another major swap where Bautista goes to KC for Holland. Maybe the Jays sneak another useful piece out of KC in the swap. Thoughts?

Should Jose be dealt, perhaps the Jays look at revisiting negotiations with Melky Cabrera. He has been linked to the Royals as well but perhaps they don't like that long an investment in the Melk Man. Jose is signed for '15 for $14M and a team option for '16 for the same amount. That should look attractive to KC. Saunders spent most of 2014 with SEA in RF and seemed to acquit himself well. Perhaps the hole created by trading Jose could be filled by Melky, but I'm not sure what other options out there might be reasonable.

With Donaldson in the fold, and hopefully Edwin in good health, the 34-year old Bautista is as expendable as ever. My apologies to big Jose fans for highlighting this possibility.

The other useful piece could be Wade Davis and I'd still say "absolutely not".

Think of it this way - if both were free agents right now, what would Holland and Bautista be looking at for their next contract? Holland would probably break Jonathan Papelbon's reliever record of 4 years $50M - let's say he gets $60M. One comparison for Bautista would be Victor Martinez - 2 years older than Bautista and limited to DH, he just got 4 years $68M. Bautista would probably break $80M and quite possibly $100M.

I'd say "absolutely not" too.  Bautista is certainly not "expendable."  

In fact, the Jays need to keep improving their offense, not diminishing it by trading away their best hitter.  So far this off-season, the Jays offense is improved at 3B and C but it is worse at DH/1B because Smoak certainly doesn't replace Lind's output.  And it might be worse at LF (where Saunders probably won't hit as well as Melky) and at CF (where Pompey might not hit as well as Rasmus).  Of course the defence will improve with the addition of Saunders, Martin, Smoak and Pompey, but that doesn't alter the fact that the offense is not necessarily stronger yet.  Anthopoulos has made it clear that Donaldson's bat is a replacement for Lind's bat in the lineup -- which means that he sees the lineup so far as roughly the same as last year, not necessarily a lot stronger.   To ensure that the offense is stronger, the Jays should upgrade at 2B and at DH/1B.   The hints from Anthopoulos suggest that he is hoping to do this.  If he traded Bautista, it would make his job a lot harder.  Bautista is on a team-friendly contract and he's still at his peak.  There are lots of ways of improving the bullpen without trading Bautista.

Geoff teams don't trade superstars for closers. A guy like Jose is averaging about 5 war.a year the last few years. Holland is what maybe two at tops? So unless the other piece coming back is something like a Pompey or Sanchez of the royals system I'm pretty sure your trade isn't happening.

"You don't get the other teams first rounder any more, they lose their pick. And the Jays get a supplemental round pick." I'm losing it. Old age is creeping in.

"the Twins have probably made the best use of the Rule 5 draft of any club."

Mike, I'm pretty sure you know the Jays history of Rule 5 success: we have plucked George Bell, Kelly Gruber, Willie Upshaw, Manny Lee and likely a few less impactful players.

Interestingly, the following Jays were also drafted in the Rule 5 - though not by the Jays:  Bautista (Jose and Miguel), Dickey, Jayson Werth, Josh Phelps, Graeme Lloyd, Frank Catalanotto, Jay Gibbons among others.

One could also easily argue the Pirates selection of Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente puts them ahead of all other clubs.

The Pirates had it easier.  There wasn't any free agency in Clemente's time, and so they were able to pick a very raw 20 year old and let him develop in the majors.  His run of greatness began at age 26. That year, he got paid less ($17,500) than he did when he was 23 ($20,000).  Of course, Branch Rickey would be the one to take advantage...

I see Bautista & EE as the 2 biggest individuals in the Jays offense. Will they manage 600 ABs each? That would be great, probably 40 HRs each along with all the other valuable offensive numbers. If one is traded the offense takes a BIG hit and if injuries also happen, the offense will pay.
Donaldson, Reyes and Saunders will also contribute a lot. Donaldson looks to be the equal to Bautista & EE adjusting for the RC park.
A 1/2 punch like Manny & Ortiz was a powerful weapon for Boston. We have something like that for 2 years.

I like it as a killer offense.

I do not think that 2B, CF & 1B/DH is quite set. There should be many opportunities for lots of players until someone takes sole ownership.

2B:- Goins, Izturis, Travis, Berti and maybe Burns & D Smith Jr if they can play the position. Of note only Goins & Izturis are on the 40 man roster.

CF:- Not a lot of players, but Pompey & Pillar have the minor league stats for me to be hopeful. Saunders is a possibility, but not a great candidate IMO.

1B/DH:- EE. Many of our good players can use DH for rest. The schedule also provides off days for rest as well. We have candidates that will have an opportunity. This opportunity has to have a decent number of ABs to allow a fair chance to succeed or fail. Brad Glenn is still our property. I expect him to continue to have very good numbers in the minors. If he does that again then does he deserve a chance too?
Both 1B & DH should be big offensive positions. If by some miracle we find a big unknown bat and he can do nothing position wise. I give him the job.

I'm thinking AA could end up doing another major swap where Bautista goes to KC for Holland. Maybe the Jays sneak another useful piece out of KC in the swap. Thoughts?
Should Jose be dealt, perhaps the Jays look at revisiting negotiations with Melky Cabrera.

Geoff, I find this to be a step backwards. Signing Melky will take $13-15M/year. Plus, Holland's projected at $9M+. Jose is making $14M this year. So, if you just take the $10M that you save by keeping Jose and not signing Melky, it should be pretty easy to sign a closer for $10M. Jose + good closer >> Melky + Holland.

Plus, Jose is the heart and soul of this team - he led the resurgence. Trade him, and EE gets depressed, Donaldson (who looks at Jose as a role model) sours on the trade, a huge amount of marketing is wasted AND we weaken the outfield defense (Melky < Jose on defense).

Now, if the deal was: Jose + prospect for Holland, Wade Davis (or Alex Gordon or Eric Hosmer) and Jason Frasor, that's worth talking about. Of course, KC would never go for it, because that's just as lop-sided in our favour :-)

"In fact, the Jays need to keep improving their offense, not diminishing it by trading away their best hitter."

Absolutely. While adding Donaldson, Martin, and Saunders looks all swell from a WAR perspective it terms of overall value, I think it's fair to say the offense is at best still at the same level as last year. Martin can't really be expected to produce more offense than Navarro did in 2014, Melky's .808 OPS would be tremendous from Saunders, our current CF corps will likely show a drop off from Rasmus, and while Donaldson is a much more reliable/better hitter than Lawrie he doesn't hit RHP as well as Lind, so you can probably call Lawrie/Lind vs. Donaldson/Smoak close to a wash.

The team might be in a better shape moving forward overall from the moves they've made, but at this point I don't think that applies specifically to the offense.

Trade Bautista for an ace reliever?  No thanks. 

With the personnel on hand, I'd have Redmond in the 5 slot to open the year.  Cecil closes, Sanchez and Estrada do the high leverage 7th and 8th inning work, Loup and Jenkins are the middle inning guys and Hendriks is in long relief.  I'd like if the club signed Wesley Wright  to be the left-handed specialist.  I'd start Norris in Buffalo. After 5 starts or so, if he's successful, he can graduate to the major league pen.  If that goes well, he can take over from Redmond in mid-July.  Gibbons unfortunately does not have confidence in Redmond, so this won't happen. 

Martin can't really be expected to produce more offense than Navarro did in 2014

Sure he can.  Martin is going to be 32 next year vs. Navarro's 31.  Dioner's got 2732 big league ABs with an OPS of 689.  Martin has exactly 4000 ABs with an OPS of 754, which is driven by much more OBP than Navarro.  Martin is coming off the better season and is moving into a better hitting environment.

Navarro was a decent stopgap catcher for us last year, but I just don't see why he's getting so much love right now. 

Jerjapan, the comparison was with Navarro's 2014.  Last year, Navarro had a 98 wRC+.  For his career, Martin has a 106 wRC+.  On balance, he's likely to hit a somewhat better than Navarro did last year, but not a whole lot better.  The major difference is defensive. 

I don't know why some folks on this thread and others are so focused on a LHP starter for the jays. You don't need a LHP in your rotation, you just need good pitchers. If our hypothetical rotation was:

Felix Hernandez
Yu Darvish
Max Scherzer
Johnny Cueto
Stephen Strasburg

I don't think anyone would say that rotation is ok, but it would be better if we traded one of the above straight up for CJ Wilson or JA Happ or Felix Doubront. No one would do that.

I mean sure, trade one of the above for Kershaw and we are all happpy. But that is because Kershaw is a stud, not because he's a LHP.

Having a good LHP or two out of the pen is one thing, because you can deploy platoon matchups out of the pen at targeted close and late high leverage situations. But for a starter, we just need 5 (or 6 or 7) really good ones, and if all are LHP or all are RHP or there are a mix it doesn't really matter.

True Michael.