Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

John Northey - Sunday, November 23 2014 @ 08:48 PM EST (#295377) #

Pablo Sandoval seems to be about to make his decision on who to play for with rumours saying the Red Sox are his favorite right now with San Diego having the biggest offer. The Giants are listed as still in the race but the Jays are not.
Torii Hunter was rumoured to be someone the Jays wanted, but he seems headed to Minnesota instead
The Red Sox seem to be after Hanley Ramirez as well, to play LF
Those same Sox appear to have opened a 6 year $110/120 mil offer to Jon Lester.
The A's are expected to make a trade as they have at 1B/DH Ike Davis, Billy Butler, Brandon Moss, John Jaso, Stephen Vogt, Kyle Blanks, and Nate Freiman
Atlanta seems willing to trade Justin Upton who is a free agent post 2015, making $14.5 mil in '15. Tempting...
Center fielder Dexter Fowler and catcher Jason Castro are available in a deal from Houston who wants relieve help. Wonder if a match could be made? Fowler is a 104 lifetime OPS+/119 last year but is not good defensively, Castro has a 98 OPS+ lifetime (1515 PA) but is 'meh' on defense (around 0 lifetime factoring in pitch framing). Both could be useful but neither is a 'wow'.
Phillies are shopping Carlos Ruiz which is interesting. Expensive ($8.5 each of the next 2 years, $4.5 option 3rd year) and old (entering age 36 season) but a 104 OPS+ lifetime with strong defensive ratings. Could he be an (expensive) mix with Martin behind the plate/DH? Doubt it but an interesting one

Eh, a few shots in the dark. No clue what will happen next. Odds are AA is chasing a 2B/3B (either or) and a LF/1B (again, either or) who can hit. I suspect the LF/1B is the top priority now, ideally a LF who can move to 1B if needed. Don't really see guys like Ruiz as likely but the old 'who knows' rule is in effect.

PeterG - Sunday, November 23 2014 @ 09:23 PM EST (#295379) #

Take this with a grain of salt as it does not come from one of the major beat writers, but there are rumours out of NY tonight that Jays are close to signing Luke Gregorson.

greenfrog - Sunday, November 23 2014 @ 09:24 PM EST (#295380) #

Here's an interesting question: if you could have Lester or Scherzer for the same contract (say, 7/150), which pitcher would you choose?

Tough call. I think I might prefer Lester, as I feel (from an ignorant layperson's point of view) like Scherzer's motion might be more conducive to injury over time. I like the trend in Lester's key stats over the last few years (BB, K, HR, ERA+, FIP). And I have a thing for lefty aces. But Scherzer has been a dang fine pitcher over that stretch as well. Dang fine.

Both pitchers just turned 30.

John Northey - Sunday, November 23 2014 @ 09:42 PM EST (#295381) #

Gregorson (RH reliever) would be nice. Entering age 31 season, 65-70 IP per year lately, pure reliever with low BB/9 figures (2.6 lifetime, 1.9 last year) and nice but not 'wow' K figures (8.8 lifetime, 7.3 last year) with under 1 HR/9 every season. Would be a nice fit for the 7/8/9th innings I'd think. Never started at any level, so like Loup would be a pure reliever not a converted starter (like Cecil, Jenkins, Redmond, Delabar [in minors], and maybe reliever Sanchez, and former Jays McGowan & Morrow).

dan gordon - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:04 AM EST (#295382) #

Just have to be aware that Gregerson has pitched for 2 teams that play in extreme pitchers' parks, SD and Oak. Look at his career splits. ERA 2.02 at home, 3.60 on the road. WHIP .921 at home, 1.263 on the road. The road numbers are probably more indicative of what the Jays would get from him.

Thomas - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 06:57 AM EST (#295383) #

The Red Sox are apparently finalizing a contract with Hanley Ramirez worth $90 million over 5 years. That's less than I thought he'd sign for. Reportedly, he'll play LF if the Sox also sign Sandoval.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 07:43 AM EST (#295384) #

The Red Sox are apparently finalizing a contract with Hanley Ramirez worth $90 million over 5 years. That's less than I thought he'd sign for.

Perhaps as a part-time player his salary has been pro-rated. It will be interesting to see who misses the most time between him and Lawrie.

Truth be told, I'd rather have seen Ramirez in blue.

christaylor - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 08:03 AM EST (#295385) #

My preference is Lester but I can only justify that with the heuristic that left starters tend to age better than right handed pitchers who rely on power to get hitters out.

BlueJayWay - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 08:09 AM EST (#295386) #

Red Sox get Sandoval for 5 yrs approx $100M. I like the Hanley deal for them, this one not so much.

bpoz - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 08:41 AM EST (#295387) #

The Red Sox are getting much better regarding their position players. Looks like they have a surplus, if that is ever possible.
If they can add a couple of stud starting pitchers, they will look pretty good.

85bluejay - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 09:45 AM EST (#295388) #

With the Dodgers & Red Sox having a glut of outfielders plus reports that guys like Justin Upton, Jay Bruce and Matt Joyce are available and Cuban Tomas also - Guys like Melky might get squeezed and his price might circle back to the Jays.

If Boston wasn't in our division, I'd love to buy low on Jackie Bradley.

christaylor - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 10:35 AM EST (#295389) #

Given the Sox Runs Scored versus Runs Allowed these deals make sense. I have a feeling they are going to search for bargains in pitching or at least short term contracts to have rotation slots available for prospects.

John Northey - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 11:17 AM EST (#295390) #

Weird. Sandoval and Ramirez for $190 mil over 5 years combined. That is nearly $40 mil a year for one guy who has seen his offense drop for 3 straight years (OPS+ from 155 to 123 to 116 to 111) and another who has scary defense/injury issues. While I'd have loved for the Jays to get either, the 5 years at nearly $20 mil per is a bit scary given their issues.

So in free agency 'top 10' we still have the big 3 pitchers (Scherzer/Lester/Shields), then Melky is next highest ranked (via FanGraphs), Nelson Cruz, and Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas. The best infielder left would be Chase Headley who is one of the best defensively but had just a 102 OPS+ last year, 113 lifetime. He is entering his age 31 season and seems likely to get a 4 year deal around $50 mil. For a 3-4 WAR player he is well worth it and has no draft pick cost associated with him.

MatO - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 11:20 AM EST (#295391) #

I didn't realize there was an international player bonus pool similar to the MLB draft pool until this trade by the A's for Ike Davis from the Pirates where they swapped pool allocation values. There is no actual draft just a pool total for each team to sign players. I thought that each team received the same amount of money $2.5M.

whiterasta80 - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 11:58 AM EST (#295392) #

I'd pay that for Headley. I suspect it goes a bit higher than that.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 01:19 PM EST (#295393) #

Jon Lester is an Ace like we haven't had since Doc left. The more you have, the better you are, especially in the postseason. He's a top quality Left-Hander as well, something you always need. I consider Lester to be a mandatory priority signing for whatever it take to get it done. 7-8 years if necessary and $175.00 MM - $200.0 MM if needed.

Right now we have J.A. Happ (L), basically a Fifth Starter in the final year of his contract. We also have Mark Buehrle (L), basically a Mid-rotation Starter in the final year of his contract. It is extremely unlikely either get re-signed here, not when we can get better.

At present, the only possible adequate replacement for either pitcher in 2016 is Daniel Norris, who might be a Mid-rotation Starter on this team. he might even be a bit better than that. Anyone else who might be good are close to another two years away.

Without any Trades of Starters, there are two vacancies after 2015, with possibly three if Dickey`s option isn`t picked up. Even filling the spaces with Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Drew Hutchison and Marcus Stroman, there`s still a space that the Minors might not fill.

Signing Lester doesn`t block any Pitcher who up here ever, as those Pitchers who deserve to be up will force there way up. If they can't earn a spot they're not good enough.

jerjapan - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 01:23 PM EST (#295394) #

Gregorson is the type of pitcher I thought AA would target this offseasion, although those home / road splits that dan Gordon mentions are certainly a worry. I strongly feel that we need an upgrade at the top of the bullpen depth chart, but signing a few mid-tier guys like Gregorson who could fight for the top spots might be a better value approach. I know GMs aren't as seduced by the save stat as they have been, but Gregorson has never been viewed as an elite guy and the chance to close could tempt him to come to TO. I'm still pulling for Pat Neshek, who also fits into this category.

John Northey - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 01:32 PM EST (#295395) #

Good point on the rotation Richard. Getting one of the big 3 I think should be a target for the Jays, with ranking being Lester (as he probably goes to Boston if the Jays can't pull him in), Scherzer, then Shields. Santana is probably the next best pitcher out there but with a lifetime 99 ERA+ I wouldn't be too excited to go after him, especially after he left the Jays at the alter last year. So one of the big 3 or dig into trades would be my advise.

Now what would that mean in 2015? New guy - Buehrle - Dickey - Stroman - Hutchison with Happ/Sanchez/Estrada next in line followed by Norris/Graveman/Nolan/etc. Buehrle is probably gone post-2015 as is Happ and Estrada (all free agents) thus opening a slot for a kid then with Sanchez/Norris/Graveman/Nolan fighting for any injury starts this year along with Happ & Estrada. I'd expect Happ to be traded if the Jays get one of those big 3 and maybe Dickey as well (or instead of) given what we've seen lately. That could mean a 2016 of New guy - Stroman - Hutchison - 2 kids.

The more I look at it the less likely it is for Dickey to be traded as he is a solid 200+ IP guy and signed cheaply for 15/16. It also makes it seem likely the Jays are after one of the big 3 and strongly. If AA is 'ninja' again then it'd be Scherzer as we haven't heard one word on him being after that guy. Shields is the one I see as most likely of the 3 but who knows? He easily could miss out on all 3 (after all 29 other teams want them too I'm sure) so hopefully he has a solid plan B in place.

Mylegacy - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 01:52 PM EST (#295396) #

Everyone is forgetting Osuna. His health is back if his control is back - and we should start to see that this spring - then Osuna, Sanchez, Norris, Graveman and possibly Nolin will ALL be challenging for a starting spot at some time in 2015.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 02:03 PM EST (#295397) #

Weird. Sandoval and Ramirez for $190 mil over 5 years combined.

According to Sandoval's agent, there is no deal presently in place. And Ramirez goes at 4x22 with a 22 vesting option in year 5. Which is less of a steal for Boston. Ramirez is reported to have reached out to the Red Sox. It's a fair bit of money for someone who probably won't play any more than Brett Lawrie.

92-93 - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 02:38 PM EST (#295398) #

I expect Hanley will "train" with Big Papi and rejuvenate his career in Boston.

uglyone - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 02:43 PM EST (#295399) #

Sox up near the luxury tax already and don't have even one SP that belonged in the big leagues last year.

and even with all that money spent on hitters, they don't have any elite bats in that lineup, and the only one who projects to be close to elite is 39yrs old.

and it would be pretty funny if a last place team like the Sox went out and traded away their best prospect in at least a decade (Xander).

uglyone - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 02:49 PM EST (#295400) #

"Jon Lester is an Ace like we haven't had since Doc left."

Jon Lester is no Doc Halladay.

Doc was a perennial Cy contender, while Lester has had maybe one or two years where he's been on the periphery of the Cy conversation, and has never been a serious Cy contender.

Halladay was one of the elite of the elite pitchers in baseball for a decade and a half, Lester has been a "good #1 / very good #2" for half that long.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:07 PM EST (#295402) #

A.A. was talking off the cuff so to speak when he said Scherzer and Lester as being elite with everyone else being what we already have. Now this is after the Free Agency period started, but then he wasn't listing Starters as a need, or a want. I just can't remember when he talked, because he's talked a lot more than normal this offseason.

I`ll be shocked if Lester signs before Scherzer, unless he gets $150.0 or more. It seems A.A.'s priority target now is Andrew Miller, who wants a fourth year. He wants to sign during the Winter Meetings, but I think this is too long. A.A. needs to do other stuff then. I think A.A.`s order is Miller, LF, 2nd Reliever, Starter and then 2nd/3rd Base. He might deviate if he gets a windfall offer.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:13 PM EST (#295403) #

"Jon Lester is no Doc Halladay."

Neither is Scherzer, Shields, Price and most trade targets.
Lester's going to pitch to one of the best Catchers in the Baseball. If he doesn't win several Cy Young awards, and lead us to the Fall Classic, I'd be shocked and so would he.

Dave Till - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:27 PM EST (#295404) #

So the Red Sox have signed, or are about to sign:

Juan Francisco (6'2", 245 pounds)
Pablo Sandoval (5'11", 245 pounds)
Hanley Ramirez (6'2", 225 pounds at shortstop)

The Red Sox appear to be employing the "go big or go home" approach to signing free agents.

Mike Green - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:36 PM EST (#295405) #

When Sandoval, Francisco and Ramirez come together while chasing a pop-up, would it be a "Surround Pound of Mound" or "One Tonne of Fun(ne)"?

Dave Till - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:39 PM EST (#295406) #

I'm not sure, but it would be wise for Dustin Pedroia (5'8", 165 pounds) to not be anywhere in the immediate neighbourhood.

uglyone - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:56 PM EST (#295407) #

"Lester's going to pitch to one of the best Catchers in the Baseball. If he doesn't win several Cy Young awards, and lead us to the Fall Classic, I'd be shocked and so would he."

yeah, that's crazy.

Sal - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 03:58 PM EST (#295408) #

"I'm not sure, but it would be wise for Dustin Pedroia (5'8", 165 pounds) to not be anywhere in the immediate neighbourhood."

Yea, I bet he will just orbit around them.

Mike Green - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:13 PM EST (#295409) #

"The Moons of Sandoval" does have a bit of a ring to it.

CeeBee - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:14 PM EST (#295410) #

Certainly would be some serious gravitational pull going on though.

dan gordon - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:21 PM EST (#295411) #

Pablo Sandoval weighs 245?? I'll take the "over".

Dave Till - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:41 PM EST (#295412) #

Which leads me to wonder about other celebrated large players and their listed weights on Baseball Reference.

Prince Fielder is listed at 275 pounds. Good for him for not pretending to be smaller than he really is.
His dad is listed at 230.
Ryan Howard is at 250.
Mo Vaughn is listed at 225.
Rich Garces is 250.
And David Wells is, um, 6'3" and 187. Was he thinner when he came up?

Dave Till - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:43 PM EST (#295413) #

And Babe Ruth is listed at 6'2" and 215.

Mike Green - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 04:57 PM EST (#295414) #

Was he thinner when he came up?

Aren't we all?

greenfrog - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 06:47 PM EST (#295415) #

I suppose when your birth name contains the word "oval," it's only a matter of time before your body accepts its destiny and follows suit.

raptorsaddict - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 07:20 PM EST (#295416) #

What are everyone's thoughts on Matt Kemp? He seems to be on the market, and could be a real impact bat - his 140 OPS+ would look awfully good in LF.

I presumed he would be at least an average fielder, but DRS had him at -23 over 369.1 innings in LF, 326 in CF and 500 in RF in 2014. That said, I'd like to think he could play at least to a Melky-esque level, and if you have Pompey in CF that covers up for a lot of other sins. You could also use him at DH and maybe even 1st eventually.

He has 5 years left at 107 million of so, and you get him for his 30-35 year old seasons. I have no idea what his trade value would be or what he'd cost us, but assuming it wasn't too high, I think he would be a good pickup.

christaylor - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 07:50 PM EST (#295417) #

Negative thought time:

This might be obvious to some but I just realized it -- the length of the Ramirez and Sandoval contracts are a tip off that the Jays probably weren't really in on either of them. Both contracts fit within the 5 year org limit which is what I thought would be the biggest stumbling block for signing either of them.

I still hope that AA has one major move left this offseason, but my bet is against another high-profile, top tier, FA being acquired (which is always a safe bet when it comes to the Jays).

jerjapan - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 08:48 PM EST (#295418) #

six years didn't stop us from signing those guys, $190 million did. I'm glad we signed Martin and were out on Hanley and sandoval, and i expect lots more positive moves to come for the Jays this off season. Why backload Martin's contract otherwise?

John Northey - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 08:52 PM EST (#295419) #

So of those 3 which would you rather have? Martin, Sandoval, or Ramirez? Regardless of contract.

FanGraphs steamer projections for 2015 for the 3...
Martin: 3.9
Ramirez: 3.8
Sandoval: 3.6

Huh. The Jays paid the least and got the guy with the best projected value in 2015. Sweet.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 08:57 PM EST (#295420) #

A.A. and his team are after Andrew Miller as possible Closer. So is most of Baseball, which makes A.A.'s job harder.

Matt Kemp might have issues that makes A.A. wary. If L.A.'s trying to move him, he definitely has issues. If A.A. 's interested he'll go after him, if the price is right.

It's very hard to gain/keep depth in the system when you insist on trades, because that's what you trade away, that depth. Spending cash is easier, but should cost more in Dollars and Term than most G.M.'s are comfortable with. This offseason, A.A. must succeed, failure is not an option. With A.A.'s signing of Russell Martin to just $7.0 MM for the 2015 season, indications should be that A.A. will be very active.

John Northey - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 09:15 PM EST (#295421) #

Checking the projections for pitchers at FanGraphs does anyone jump out as both available and ace material?
The guys listed with 4+ WAR projected: Kershaw, Sale, Darvish, Hernandez, Scherzer - Scherzer is the only one I see as available
3.5 to 3.9: Price, Kluber, Strasburg, Tanaka, Bumgarner - don't see any of them as available
3.0 to 3.4: Greinke, Jose Fernandez, Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester - Lester is a free agent, Cueto might be available (last year pre-free agency, $10 mil, Cin trying to cut payroll maybe)
2.5 to 2.9: Hisashi Iwakuma, Matt Harvey, Jordan Zimmermann, Marcus Stroman, James Shields, Alex Cobb, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, and Jeff Samardzija - A Jay! Shields is a free agent, Zimmermann is in his last year pre-free agency but I doubt Washington trades him, Hammels is rumoured to be available ($90 mil over 4 years), Samardzija is a free agent post 2015 so Oakland might be willing to trade him given their past history.

So of the guys who are projected to be very good the ones who might be available are Scherzer, Lester, Cueto, Shields, Hammels, and Samardzija. 6 pitchers, 3 free agents and 3 tough to get by trade (some harder than others). Can AA get any of them? Doubtful but it'll be interesting to see.

Mike Green - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 09:17 PM EST (#295422) #

FanGraphs steamer projections for 2015 for the 3...
Martin: 3.9
Ramirez: 3.8
Sandoval: 3.6
Huh. The Jays paid the least and got the guy with the best projected value in 2015. Sweet.

Steamer does not take into account pitch-framing. It is probably worth something.

John Northey - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 09:30 PM EST (#295423) #

Didn't know that Steamer doesn't factor in pitch framing. B-R does (via Baseball Info Solutions) and has Martin as a +3 runs last year, +11 lifetime so it is a factor but not a major one based on their figures. Another thing to remember is Ramirez 3.8 figure is with him at SS, not LF which will drop his value significantly I'd suspect.

christaylor - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 11:05 PM EST (#295424) #

Why backload? There's no room in the budget / payroll parameters for this year.

(I don't truly believe this or the above but think the evidence is ambiguous we'll know by early January, I suppose.)

christaylor - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 11:09 PM EST (#295425) #

I would easily wager that they will not be this order at the end of 2015.

Plus there's a position change for Hanley -- going to LF will really increase his value (see the WAR for Gordon playing LF last year, dubious).

vw_fan17 - Monday, November 24 2014 @ 11:52 PM EST (#295426) #

Another thing to remember is Ramirez 3.8 figure is with him at SS, not LF which will drop his value significantly I'd suspect.

Lots of those balls come off the green monster like balls hit to short, so they're really hoping he can play a good "reverse" SS out there.. :-)

christaylor - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 01:01 AM EST (#295427) #

Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is that defense in WAR is applied as a correction factor by position. That is Hanley was a negative SS relative to other SS in the league. He'll probably be an above average LF, especially at Fenway. He could nix more than a few Fenway doubles.

christaylor - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 01:04 AM EST (#295428) #

See this article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/alex-gordon-uzr-and-bad-left-field-defense/

dan gordon - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 01:32 AM EST (#295429) #

Just saw on Rotoworld that the Jays are taking a look at adding Jay Bruce to give them a lefty power bat. Bruce had an awful 2014 season, so the Reds may be looking at dealing him, and the price should be lower than it would have been a year ago. His contract calls for $12 million next year, then $12.5 million and then a team option for $13 million with a $1 million buyout. Bruce had an OPS of only .654 last year, after being over .800 for 4 years in a row. Doesn't hit for much of an average, but he walks a bit, and has good power, with 121 HR's for the 4 years from 2010 to 2013. Career OPS is about 100 points higher vs righties, but still over .700 vs lefties.

The park has helped his power substantially, with 108 HR's at home, compared to 74 on the road. His career OPS of .790 is 39 points higher than Colby Rasmus'. However, trying to allow for the home park effects, I looked at their career road OPS, and Rasmus is actually better than Bruce by 37 points, at .777 vs .740.

uglyone - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 01:36 AM EST (#295430) #

it actually works the opposite way. it's much easier for an SS or C to rack up WAR than an LF or 1B.

there is the argument that a poor defensive player at a premium defensive position might turn into a good defensive player at an easier position, but you don't actually know that until it happens, and each position has a learning curve regardless.

As for Hanley, he's 31yr old and has never played a game in the OF in his career, so projecting him as an above average LFer just because he plays SS (poorlY) is a bit optimistic IMO. Even if he manages to be adequate in LF, that'll still smoke his WAR because adequate fielding in LF is nowhere near as valuable as even poor defense at SS. He'd have to be one hell of an LF (like Gordon is) for the war to balance out.

I mean, it's nice to think Reyes could turn into an ace LF but it's unlikely to be true.

Gordon is an outlier - it seems like he was just playing the wrong position the whole time. He was a mediocre defensive 3B at best.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 07:10 AM EST (#295431) #

Checking a HOF'er who switched from SS to CF at age 29, Robin Yount, you see a bWAR shift. From ages 20-28 at SS his WAR was 1.4-3.1-3.3-4.9-5.0-5.9-7.1-7.2-10.5 from lowest to highest. From ages 29 to the end of his career his scores from highest down was 5.8-5.7-3.3-2.9-2.5-2.1-1.9-1.6-09. He also played 2 years as a teen with a 1.5 and a 0.4 WAR. Outside of the 81 strike and his rookie season at 18 he had 514+ PA every year - those 2 other years were both over 350 PA. Talk about dependable eh?

So from his career you see that in CF he had 2 'wow' years (5+ WAR), 1 very good one (3-4 WAR), and 5 'meh' ones (2.9 down to 1.5) and a ick (sub 1). At SS he had 5 'wow', 3 very good, and 1 'meh' (at age 20). At SS he peaked over 10, his best in CF was his 5th best year, his 3rd best in CF was tied for 10th best.

So for a HOF'er who won an MVP in CF he still had nowhere near the player value he had at SS. He was great but not as valuable. And that is a best case situation. If Boston expects Ramirez to be within a win of his value at SS while playing LF they are fooling themselves. If Ramirez follows Yount then his best year in LF should be his 5th best for SS which would be about 4.5 WAR and his 3rd best sub 2.8 WAR. So expect a year or two of value, the rest being a near write off. Of course, that isn't factoring in that Yount moved at age 29 while Ramirez is moving at age 31 although on the 'plus' is Yount had his best 2 years in CF at ages 32/33 and 3rd best at age 31 - if the Red Sox get that from Ramirez (his 3 best after leaving SS in the next 3 years with 2 over 4 WAR) I think they'll be happy. Again though, I see that as a 'best case'.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 07:36 AM EST (#295432) #

It is highly likely Hanley Ramirez is the primary backup to SS. If your regular SS goes down, it is highly advantageous to put in his place a real starting SS. Even as bad defensively as Hanley is, he's still a starting SS, at another position.

This is something A.A. ignores doing. It's something he should ignore no longer.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 07:40 AM EST (#295433) #

A.A. might get Jay Bruce if he takes a Starter and a bad contract as well. It will be very expensive - Sanchez, Norris and Pompey will surely be in play.

raptorsaddict - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 08:48 AM EST (#295434) #

I can't see the value in trading any of those 3 for Jay Bruce. In fact, I'd be shocked and appalled if any of them were put in play for an outfielder coming off a down year who has a worse OPS than Rasmus on the road.

finch - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 08:54 AM EST (#295435) #

The Jays could get Bruce without giving up any of the Top prospects. It's been reported that the Reds want to get their payroll under control for this season, going forward. If the Jays trade for Bruce AND take a bad contract, the amount of return for the Reds wouldn't be as great. The package would centre around an established, controllable pitcher, like Drew Hutchison plus a mid level prospect or two. Prospects like Mitch Nay and Sean Nolin.

I would do Hutchison, Nay and Nolin for Phillips and Bruce in heartbeat.

The Jays are happy because they fill two needs and the Reds are happy because they get rid of a lot of payroll and they acquire 3 young players that are controllable.

Hodgie - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 09:28 AM EST (#295436) #

"I would do Hutchison, Nay and Nolin for Phillips and Bruce in heartbeat."

I sure wouldn't. Depending on how you feel about fWAR, bWAR, WARP etc. Drew Hutchison provided more value last season than Phillips and Bruce combined. Phillips is going to turn 34 next season and his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction for 3 seasons. Bruce is Colby Rasmus without even the possibility of good defense. Meanwhile Hutchison is 24 years old and makes $0.5M. I wouldn't trade Hutchison straight up for the two of them, much less take on $24M in salary while adding a couple of more pieces to the mix.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 09:43 AM EST (#295437) #

What Hodgie said. FWIW, I don't perceive either outfield or second base as an area of weakness. The club could certainly use a better left-handed first baseman than Smoak to platoon with Valencia and maybe another left-handed bench OF bat. I am also optimistic about Hutchison for 2015. He is the pitcher who I think will most benefit from Martin's defensive ability; he has a lot going for him to begin with and that little extra can really make a difference for a pitcher like him.

PeterG - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 09:49 AM EST (#295438) #

Agree with Hodgie as as well. Dickey is all I would offer for Bruce. I think the Jays expect Travis to be at 2b for 2016 and are seeking a player on a one year contract for 2015.

christaylor - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 10:46 AM EST (#295439) #

Thanks to those who clarified how defense factors into WAR for me.

I will say this about Hanley in LF in Fenway - I saw a lot of games there sitting near the wall from 2011 to 2013 (a dated pro-tip: cheap tickets in the no alcohol family section) and I wasn't surprised when I saw a LF with a good arm save two Fenway doubles in a game with a good read or a rep of a good arm. If Hanley still has an arm that in itself could be very valuable. Fenway LF really rewards a good arm, the ability to play shallow, and read and react to balls off the wall - absurdly so. A SS with limited range, good reflexes, and a good arm seems like an ideal candidate to thrive there. Is that Ramirez, who knows... I haven't seen Ramirez play in a long time and maybe range isn't his defense issue.

Richard makes a good point if Boagarts can't hack it or is injured Hanley nicely slots in to SS. The Jays aren't very position flexible outside of Lawrie.

On Bruce - please, no, at least not for any of the players mentioned in this thread. This sounds like a silly season rumor and nothing more.

bpoz - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 10:48 AM EST (#295440) #

I find this off season moving very fast. The winter meetings are still 2 weeks away. Lester, Scherzer and Shields may be gone by then.The NYY are still quiet.
So I am extremely happy that AA signed Martin. He will make all our pitchers better. Our young arms should be handled properly with him around. If we have multiple breakthroughs, wishful thinking I know, then our future looks bright.
We have some pieces to trade. I hope we can get a big bat.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 10:54 AM EST (#295441) #

The Blue Jays payroll for 2014 was $136.5m. The estimated payroll for 2015 (including arb and pre-arb) according to BBRef is $132.8m. It may yet mean that the payroll freeze remains notwithstanding comments to the contrary, and that Anthopoulos is saving his remaining few million for the deadline. We shall see.

JB21 - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 12:29 PM EST (#295442) #

I'm pretty sure AA has a standing offer to Melky for what he believes Melky is worth. If Melky can't find something more than that, than he re-signs with the Jays. If this is true (I believe AA stated that it was), then I would have to assume that they would have another $10-$15 million dollars available for 2015, depending on how the contract would be structured.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 12:57 PM EST (#295443) #

Well, if AA is in full on 'screw the risk' stage then lets go for Cincinnati's big contract Joey Votto who played just 62 games last year and will make a fortune up until 2023/4 (age 39/40). Steamer has him at 4.4 WAR next year in 135 games and he could go up to 6+ (was over 6 in 2013). Big risk, but Canadian and big rewards if he can stay healthy. His UZR/150 at 1B has been positive every year from 2010 to present which would be a nice sight indeed at 1B (probably the first since Olerud around here...oh yeah, forgot Overbay). Last year was his first worth less than $20 mil since 2008 as well.

Btw, I seriously doubt that this would happen, but boy would it be fun and exciting.

PeterG - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 01:06 PM EST (#295444) #

I think AA should check into DF'D Red Sox C Ryan Lavarnway. Could be a back up, if Navarro and Thole both moved.

92-93 - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 02:50 PM EST (#295445) #

McCown asked AA about the idea of a standing offer to Melky that he could circle back to if he finds his market to not be as high as he'd hoped, and my impression from AA's response was that's not the case. My guess would be that AA made what he deemed to be a fair 3 year offer to Melky and told him it may not be on the table later in the offseason, pending other transactions.

uglyone - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 03:19 PM EST (#295446) #

Don't buy into the Red Sox hype machine, Lavarnway is 27yrs old now, and was never the prospect they said he was.

Lavarnway (27): 301pa, 49wrc+, -1.7df, -1.1war
Arencibia (28): 1614pa, 74wrc+, -1.7df, -0.4war

AAA

Lavarnway (27): 1102pa, 129wrc+
Arencibia (28): 1162pa, 114wrc+

and Lavarnway hasn't really been playing C much at all the last few years.

JB21 - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 04:34 PM EST (#295447) #

This is from Richard Griffin:

The fact is, GM Alex Anthopoulos has put a price tag � both years and dollars � on the 30-year-old left fielder and, with the signing of catcher Russell Martin, is content to wait until Cabrera has explored other offers in the marketplace. If he becomes disillusioned with what free agency has to offer � and nobody knows what it is � Cabrera may yet return for a four- or five-year deal.

PeterG - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 05:24 PM EST (#295448) #

Cabrera won't get a 5 year deal.

JB21 - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 06:25 PM EST (#295449) #

Juan Francisco, DFA'd by the Red Sox.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 25 2014 @ 08:54 PM EST (#295450) #

Hanley Ramirez signing for $22 million per annum and (perhaps) moving to left field puts me in mind of another shortstop who has also been hobbled by injury.

Newton - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 12:07 AM EST (#295451) #

What is to be made of Martin's 2015 payroll hit being only 7 million?

Could be spun as adding flexibility for further additions in 2015 or, more cynically, could be a sign budgetary restrictions remain firm and (barring a trade of salary out) our star players may need to be asked to pass the hat again to add any additional payroll.

Lind 2015 salary out, Martin 2015 salary in.

We should know by Christmas whether Rogers is, in fact, increasing the payroll for this season.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 12:21 AM EST (#295452) #

Phillies are shopping Carlos Ruiz which is interesting. Expensive ($8.5 each of the next 2 years, $4.5 option 3rd year) and old (entering age 36 season) but a 104 OPS+ lifetime with strong defensive ratings. Could he be an (expensive) mix with Martin behind the plate/DH? Doubt it but an interesting one
----
Dump him onto one of the rich teams ? Dodgers, RedSox ? It seems capable catchers are hot commodity to be sought after: this offseason is a good time to trade Navarro and Thole ? Is it also time to sign some reclamation journeymen ? Kratz made himself a good backup, taking advantage of Ruiz' DL time.

I think the Phillies would hold onto Ruiz and add a Taylor Teagarden to a spring training invitation ? From Jays' views, what position players shall AA stock up ? A Stephen Vogt to replace Thole ?

cybercavalier - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 12:26 AM EST (#295453) #

Juan Francisco, DFA'd by the Red Sox
-----
Get him back and flip him with Navarro to the Cubs for Valbuena and other commodity ?

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 09:48 AM EST (#295454) #

Francisco?

Claim him back like we did the previous poor defensive 3B with monstrous power but no consistency that we let go on waivers.

Jevant - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 10:26 AM EST (#295455) #

Brandon Moss could work as the LHB that could handle LF, DH and back up EE at 1B...

Jevant - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 10:29 AM EST (#295456) #

I have a bit of a hard time seeing the Sox trying to teach a bad defensive SS to learn a new position and then be planning on putting him back at SS. Positional flexibility is nice to have, but guys that can play non-1B infield positions AND OF rarely do both even close to well.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 10:59 AM EST (#295457) #

I can't see AA taking a nine year contract (Votto) at huge money. That goes against everything he and Beeston have been spouting for years.

I like the idea of Dexter Fowler. He has one more year of arbitration left (should be pretty hefty as he made $7.35M last season), and a move to LF might improve his defensive value as he is not a very good defensive CF. He is a high-OBP player who can slot into the #2 spot in the order without hurting the lineup. Maybe a move to LF could help him. Not sure what the Astros would want for him, though.

I think the chances of Melky coming back are probably 50/50. There is a chance he could come crawling back to the Jays if he doesn't get the offers he wants, and judging by the shorter terms than expected for Sandoval and Hanley, that's not a good sign for the Melky's of the world. Though as we know all it takes is one team to overvalue and it's done. Thankfully it appears the one team that overvalues him won't be the Jays, which is smart.

Jevant - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 11:07 AM EST (#295458) #

These are some excellent on-point comments re: Melky. Have a really hard time seeing if Hanley/Panda sign for those amounts how Melky hits the home run he is apparently looking for (especially once you start factoring in the draft pick). The Jays seem to have made a take it or leave it offer, which suggests there is money there for a LF that could be allocated elsewhere if Melky passes.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 11:22 AM EST (#295459) #

I wouldn't spend much on Fowler. He's a switch-hitter who is much better from the right side. He essentially has the same profile as Pillar except that he is likely to get on base more and play less effective defence and cost at least $5 million more. If he was better from the left side, I'd feel differently about it.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 11:38 AM EST (#295460) #

Don't forget as well that Melky is more expensive to another team because of the QO. It'd be nice if he came back here.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 12:31 PM EST (#295461) #

Steamer projects Fowler as a 1.8 WAR player next season, and that's presumably as a CF (his defense drags his value down tremendously in that projection). Prior to 2014 he was a 2.0 to 2.3 WAR player (from 2011-13, he was at 1.4 in 2014), and that's with bad defense. If a move to LF might improve his defense, then I think it's a worthwhile gamble since it's only one year. His splits don't bother me because career-wise he's been solid against both (.770 OPS against RHP and .823 OPS against LHP). I wouldn't give up that much for him either, but I don't think it will take much (which is part of the appeal). Depends on how highly the Astros view him though.

greenfrog - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 02:13 PM EST (#295462) #

The Jays should sign Chase Headley. Discuss.

Ron - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 02:55 PM EST (#295463) #

While I prefer Michael Saunders, I wonder if the Jays have any interest in Daniel Nava. The Jays have a hole in LF and the Red Sox don't have any left handed pitchers in the backend of the bullpen. A Nava for Loup swap would help both clubs. The money allocated for Melky could be better spent elsewhere depending on what other moves are made.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 03:02 PM EST (#295464) #

Daniel Nava would make an excellent trade target. The only real question is whether the Red Sox would be keen to deal with a divisional rival.

Ron - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 03:12 PM EST (#295465) #

Cherington and AA do have a history of making a trade with each other. John Farrell was traded for Mike Aviles.

jerjapan - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 03:17 PM EST (#295466) #

Headley makes a lot of sense to me, assuming the Jays do their due diligence on his injury history. Headley on the turf does make me nervous, but his D and OBP would nicely balance our team. The 4 year / 50 million number I've seen attached to him ain't cheap, but I'd pay it.

No to trading Loup though - we have a thin enough pen right now, and his value is down a bit (unless you assume 2013 was the anomaly).

uglyone - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 03:22 PM EST (#295467) #

"The Jays should sign Chase Headley. Discuss."

Short discussion: YES

"Daniel Nava would make an excellent trade target."

Sox have backed themselves into a corner now where they HAVE to trade some guys. They have too many guys without options that they can't send down without waiving. Nava seems to be the guy most in danger of being sent down. We might be able to get him for a song.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 04:12 PM EST (#295468) #

I think that Nava would make a fine left-handed part of a first base platoon (even though he's 5'11" tall), and give the corner OFs a day off here and there. His closest BBRef age-comparable is Jim Eisenreich. It's a pretty good comp and Eisenreich held his value into his 30s very well.

JB21 - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 07:14 PM EST (#295469) #

Cherington and AA do have a history of making a trade with each other. John Farrell was traded for Mike Aviles.

Gibby for Nava? #ikid

cybercavalier - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 10:14 PM EST (#295470) #

"Daniel Nava would make an excellent trade target."

Sox have backed themselves into a corner now where they HAVE to trade some guys. We might be able to get him for a song.
-------
If so, trade the minor league signee Greg Burke for Nava ?

John Northey - Wednesday, November 26 2014 @ 10:52 PM EST (#295471) #

Headley....
Pluses: 113 OPS+ lifetime, strong dWAR (BR) 10.8 UZR/150 lifetime (28.0 last year).
Minus: Age 31 season next year so tail end of peak, K's over 120 times a year, both RBI and R below 60 both this year and last.

His bWAR the past 5 years is 3.5/3.8/6.3/2.8/3.9
His fWAR the past 5 years is 4.4/3.6/7.2/2.3/4.4

So basically we are looking at a 3.5 to 4.5 range as his normal during his peak. So guess a 2.5 to 3.5 going forward (avg of 3) over a 4 year deal and you get 12 WAR for $48 mil, or $4 mil a WAR. Estimated value is $6 mil per WAR which would make him (over a 4 year deal) worth $70 mil so if the Jays did a 5 year to get it done and wrote off the 5th year at $12 mil per you'd still be at a break even situation even with nothing in year 5.

Of course, that might be overestimating what to expect, still it seems reasonable as a target. Headley would be nice at 3B, Lawrie at 2B and Travis having to really earn his way to the majors at which point Lawrie might end up in LF or Travis might be in LF or who knows.

Jonny German - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 01:33 AM EST (#295472) #

All this talk about outfielders... am I the only one who is much more disturbed at the prospect of Smoak/Valenica at first base than of Dirks/Mayberry in left field? Maybe I'm just less optimistic than most about the chances of moving Bautista to first, or about having EE play first and DH being covered by committee. But surely we can all agree that Justin Smoak Opening Day First Baseman is a very bad idea.

85bluejay - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 07:43 AM EST (#295473) #

I'm okay with Smoak @ 1b against RHP & EE @ DH and EE @ 1b against LHB with the DH spot occupied by resting someone (Reyes/Bautista etc.) - I think I'm more bullish on Smoak against RHP than most - I'm also okay with a Dirks/Mayberry LF - I'm more troubled by the idea of starting the season with Pompey in CF - I'm like Pompey, but I want him to start the season in AAA, then force his way to Toronto - I don't want another force-fed Snider situation.

greenfrog - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 08:08 AM EST (#295474) #

Yes - sometimes I think that because Pompey is an exciting prospect and a fast riser people have convinced themselves that he's ready to start in CF for the Jays in April. I think the team should do what's best for his development. The fact that being in the majors entails being surrounded by ML coaches doesn't necessarily mean a promotion is the best developmental move for a young prospect.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 08:26 AM EST (#295475) #

There are two questions in relation to Pompey. Is he the best option for the club to play centerfield in April, 2015? If so, is there a compelling reason for him not to be there? The answer to the first question is a pretty clear yes. The answer to the second question is not quite so clear. As of today, the club has a significant interest in him not starting with the club in April for the same reason that Evan Longoria did not start for the Rays on Opening Day 2008- service time and consequent years of control. Longoria went .200/.359/.200 in 39 PAs that year for Durham, but that didn't stop the Rays from calling him up at the end of April.

MrPurple - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 09:27 AM EST (#295476) #

85bluejay can you describe to us how it is you are 'like pompey'? Are you saying you should get a chance at centre field?

85bluejay - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 09:59 AM EST (#295477) #

YES

uglyone - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 10:11 AM EST (#295478) #

Not sure if I see a significant difference in Dirks @LF or Smoak @1B.

They're both platoon guys. Steamer is projecting Smoak for slightly better offense vs. RHP (though both are average to slighty above) and Dirks for slightly better defense. Dirks' track record is possibly a bit more risky since he really only had the one good season. Meanwhile both Mayberry and Valencia project as good lefty mashers as platoon partners for them, so there's not much difference there, either.

I think why most people are looking at LF to upgrade first is a) it just seems like there are more quality OF availabe right now both as FA and in trade, and b) I think most of us are getting comfortable with the idea that it's easier to shift guys down the defensive spectrum to the 1B/DH slots so that should be our last priority. c) we had Melky there last year, and have an offer out to him, and we kinda want to see him back (at a decent price) or replace him.

Hopefully we fill at least one of those spots with a legit dependable bat. I think it's smart to use cheap platoons / kids to fill in a couple of spots in the order, but when it starts getting up to nearly half the spots in the order (1b/lf/2b/cf) you're asking for trouble. Ideally I'd like to get established average+ players for 2 of those 4 spots still.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 10:16 AM EST (#295479) #

What wins baseball games, whether Spring Training, Regular Season or Postseason? Pitching, Defense and Timely Hitting wins games. What is A.A. going to do to make this happen?

A.A. acquires Russell Martin and Upgrades Defense, Make Pitching Better and loses no offense. That's what I call a good deal. A.A. was looking to make a Signature Signing, a Game-Changing presence for the Clubhouse. Victor Martinez, Russell Martin and Pablo Sandoval were those people, he needed one. Otherwise why be after all of them as it appeared they were, it wasn't all smoke and mirrors. After that, back to 'Message'.

Dalton Pompey's presence in CF answers that message as defensively he's a Star. Offensively I think he'll learn to hit well, because he's willing to do so. There so much he can do that Gose decided he could not. There's so much he could do that Gose decided he would not. As long as he's doing everything normal in Spring Training, I don't think anything changes.

Left Field is an issue that even Melky's return doesn't totally cover. Ideally, you'd want better offense and better defense than Melky provides. Sometime very soon, A.A. moves on and looks elsewhere (as there are a lot of outfielders being made available), since Melky's camp is still looking for the monster deal.

Unless A.A. acquires an Ace (a lot more than just Scherzer, Lester and Shields are available, via trades as well), his major concern is the Bullpen with two or possibly three additions needed. The whole World saw how KC got to the World Series, so A.A. must have noticed. All I want is for A.A. to get on with it, some much to do, so little time.

I heard A.A. talk on a podcast saying that while it's not ideal, he's willing to start the season with the existing infield. That was a shock! I can understand that keeping Brett Lawrie at Third makes Reyes better, but who backs up Reyes when he goes down for half a season or more? Your Second Baseman should be able to do that. Signing one of those should be not that expensive, unless A.A. really believes Devon Travis is the answer long term. That big clanger that fell during the podcast was A.A. wanting to upgrade at First Base and DH if he could. Was that a slip of the tongue or was it floating a balloon?

Mike Green - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 10:38 AM EST (#295480) #

We haven't had a Hall of Fame discussion this year, and this year's ballot causes no end of problems. There are well over 10 players who one can easily justify voting for- Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Gary Sheffield, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Alan Trammell, and Larry Walker. I am not including McGwire and Sosa (whose greatness seems tied to PEDs) and Fred McGriff (who might merit serious consideration on another ballot).

My ballot looks like this:

1. two slam-dunk no questions asked- Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez
2. two late career PED but historically great before- Bonds (73.7 bWAR 1986-1995 age 21-30) and Clemens (73.5 bWAR 1984-1995, age 21-32)
3. two clear cut starting pitchers- Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina
4. one clear cut position player- Jeff Bagwell
5. problems

There are a knot of players who I think should be elected to the Hall of Fame without much difficulty- John Smoltz, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Craig Biggio, and a couple of players who are almost exactly on my in/out line (Kent, Sheffield). I'd probably put Raines, Trammell and Walker on my ballot because the other three will probably get enough votes to remain on the ballot (and it is conceivable that Biggio and perhaps Smoltz will be elected). When it gets to strategic voting, you know that you need to change the rules....

Who is on everyone else's ballot?

Paul D - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 10:58 AM EST (#295481) #

Mike, what's the problem with Piazza? He looks like a slam dunk to me.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 11:32 AM EST (#295482) #

If Piazza was merely a poor defender behind the plate, he's probably qualified as the best hitter to ever play the position. If he was historically bad, then it's marginal. Measuring defence for catchers is particularly difficult. Take Ted Simmons. Very fine hitter, and a so-so fielder. On merit, he probably squeaks in but he is out.

It's a lot easier to deal with catchers who are at least average defenders in most respects of the game. As I hinted at, I think that Piazza was merely a poor defender and was about as valuable to his teams as Raines, Trammell and Walker. Piazza and Walker are a good pair to compare. They were similar in ability as hitters. Walker ran a lot better, and played an excellent right field rather than a poor catcher. bWAR has it 72 to 59 for Walker, but WAR measures tend to significantly underrate catchers in general. If you are going to take the position that Piazza was clearly better than Walker, and a slam-dunk (presumably because of the importance of being able to play catcher at the major league level), you ought to say that Simmons is a clear yes. Most people don't do that.

jgadfly - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 11:42 AM EST (#295483) #

Anthony Alford in ABL... Extremely SSS ... IF my calculations are correct; after going hitless in his first 5 games while scoring 2 runs in Australia, Alford in his next 8 games has gone 9/25 with a 4bb/5k ratio while scoring 14 runs and hitting 360/520/600/1150 plus playing great defense in CF ... at the least, he's trending in the right direction and if he continues there may be some adjustments to prospect lists ... ahh, Thanksgiving in America with Christmas around the corner ... perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself or I'm drinking from the same bottle of optimism as Mylegacy ... cheers.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 11:49 AM EST (#295484) #

1. Pedro
2. Johnson
3. Biggio
4. Piazza
5. Bagwell
6. Mussina (highly underrated)
7. Raines
8. Smoltz

Those are the guys I think should get in (in order). The rest I don't feel strongly about.

I'd use my last two slots on some combination of Delgado, Nomar, and Walker- guys I don't think should get in but deserve some votes.

Crucify me if you want but I'm punishing the clear PED users. There needs to be a nuclear deterrent for PED use much like Pete Rose and the Blacksox are for gambling. Clemens, Bonds etc.. may get in but it wouldn't be through my ballot.

JB21 - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 12:01 PM EST (#295485) #

Am I missing something about Smoak? Why do people think he can hit enough as a 1B/DH?

JB21 - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 12:11 PM EST (#295486) #

I disagree with the PED comment as there's no way to truly tell who did and who didn't do PED's. There could be multiple guys on your list that did do them, so how can you be truly sure?

IMO Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall Of Fame.

jerjapan - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 02:38 PM EST (#295488) #

Yasmany Tomas at 6 years 68.5 million seems like a value signing for the D'backs, although his opt-out option after 4 years really cuts down the value. If playing for a contending team like the Jays, in a multicultural city like Toronto could have tempted him, I'm sorry we were out on this.

Dave Cameron calls it on Fangraphs "Cuban free agents have proven to be remarkable bargains of late." No guarantees, but AA seems so quick to explore any avenue to an efficiency, I wonder why not international FAs (discounting the prospects, where we do well)? Japanese pitching also comes to mind here.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 02:46 PM EST (#295489) #

Anthony Alford has one and only one Issue. He's drastically short of ABs needed to truly evaluate anything. Besides having a fuller season than normal next year, he'll need another year of Winter Ball just to get back to a normal number. By the time he's ready to start 2016's season, we'll know by then just how good he really his. All he needs is more ABs.

uglyone - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 04:09 PM EST (#295490) #

CF A.Alford (19): 110pa, 11.8bb%, 28.2k%, 11sb (100%), 115wrc+

Either way, that's a solid start to his MILB career, though the Ks have to improve.

And with next year being his 20yr old season, he's hardley behind the 8ball.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 04:48 PM EST (#295494) #

The November 27 birthday team is a little thin in the outfield, but has the best national anthem ever.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 06:19 PM EST (#295495) #

Anthony Alford has had three minor leagues seasons under his belt (insignificant amounts of ABs each year) and is probably 2.5 years behind his draft class. He's supposed to be a Stud and possible Star, with his talents and abilities.

Normal progression for a talent like his, should be finishing in Vancouver, year one (but that might be slow); finishing in Dunedin or more probably in New Hampshire, year two; then this year being in AAA Buffalo near season`s end, possibly being a call-up with Pompey.

Don`t say he`s just 20, just say he's way behind, it's more accurate.

Sal - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 07:21 PM EST (#295501) #

"Don`t say he`s just 20, just say he's way behind, it's more accurate."

Not really. While he could be at a more advanced level, starting at low A ball at 20 is perfectly fine. Actually, I find it remarkable that he seemed to be able to more than hold his own in A ball with so few career at bats and so little baseball coaching.

DJRob - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 07:28 PM EST (#295502) #

Impossible to say how much time Alford would have needed in the minors. He's behind, sure, but in terms of strength, endurance and coordination he has probably had more training than other baseball players his age. At least he wasn't knocking on random doors in Toronto during his time away from baseball.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 07:28 PM EST (#295503) #

JB21, there's also no way of knowing who did and didn't bet on baseball. Except for the people who got caught. I'm not suggesting we police the people who we think committed a crime- just the people who got caught.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 07:38 PM EST (#295505) #

After being passed over for Tampa's managerial opening, Dave Martinez is on the market. Just sayin'.

scottt - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 07:57 PM EST (#295506) #

There are two questions in relation to Pompey. Is he the best option for the club to play centerfield in April, 2015? If so, is there a compelling reason for him not to be there? The answer to the first question is a pretty clear yes. The answer to the second question is not quite so clear. As of today, the club has a significant interest in him not starting with the club in April for the same reason that Evan Longoria did not start for the Rays on Opening Day 2008- service time and consequent years of control. Longoria went .200/.359/.200 in 39 PAs that year for Durham, but that didn't stop the Rays from calling him up at the end of April.

I don't think service time enters the equation at all here. Longoria is the best position player on his team. Who knows what Pompey will be worth in 5 years?

Clearly you don't want to learn defense in the Major, but I don't see how AAA could be a better place to learn how to hit MLB pitches than the big club. At the majors, he'll see a few aces who will drag his numbers down, he'll hit at the bottom of the order rather than the top, and he'll see more heat.

jerjapan - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 08:07 PM EST (#295507) #

Not to mention, he'll have the best coaching and nutrition available. He's already MLB ready defensively, it's just a question of the bat.

I do think service time is worth keeping him down though ... an extra year of control has never been more valuable.

jgadfly - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 08:49 PM EST (#295508) #

Another plus for Alford is that ML crowds and pressure situations shouldn't distract him after making a number of 'free catches' for 'Ole Miss' with 10 guys barreling down on him in front of 80,000 screaming fans.

DJRob - Thursday, November 27 2014 @ 09:17 PM EST (#295509) #

On the downside, he hadn't played anywhere as quiet as the Rogers Centre. Being able to hear the individual hecklers may break the poor dude's spirit. I hope the ABL helps.

soupman - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 09:10 AM EST (#295515) #

are we talking about that kid that went yard on king felix back in september?

jgadfly - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 09:20 AM EST (#295516) #

RE: Anthony Alford ... Abandon ship, she's going down! Everybody off the wagon ... AA in yesterday's game, zero for five with four strikeouts ... As with others (see Eric Eiland, Ed Snead etc.) as soon as I mention their hopeful progress they seem to tank ... perhaps I'll just let things develop on their own, sans comment ...

uglyone - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 11:27 AM EST (#295520) #

"Don`t say he`s just 20, just say he's way behind, it's more accurate.
"

no, he's not way behind. He'll be a 20yr old in A ball next year. Not behind at all.

Ryan Day - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 11:42 AM EST (#295522) #

Have the Jays committed to playing him in A ball? When he made the commitment to baseball full-time, Anthopoulos said he didn't know where Alford would start, and it would depend on the ABL & spring training & so on.

Alford's behind in that he's barely played baseball for three years, so no one really knows his level of ability. Yes, he was okay in 5 games at Lansing, but he was also pretty bad in 9 games at Bluefield, and it's all just 60 AB's anyway, so it hardly matters.

Dave Till - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 11:47 AM EST (#295523) #

If past history is any guide, Pompey is a year away. I can think of three other outfielders who moved the Jays' system as quickly, and none of them did well in the following year:

Lloyd Moseby treaded water for three years before establishing himself in 1983.
Vernon Wells had a speed-bump year in 2000 (batting .243 in Syracuse), and finally made it in 2002.
Travis Snider. Enough said.

So I'd guess that Pompey won't be ready until 2016, or maybe even 2017. But Pompey has exceeded expectations before: who would have predicted that a 16th round pick from Mississauga would even make it to the majors, let alone be projected as a possible star?

Mike Green - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 11:54 AM EST (#295524) #

The Rule 5 draft is on December 11. BA profiles some of the interesting available players. I'd like to know if others have impressions of Canha and Valera.

greenfrog - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 12:51 PM EST (#295529) #

I see Cabrera is in the news, saying that he's still interested in returning to Toronto but that he has concerns about playing half his games on artificial turf - per Olney.

Does anyone remember what the latest plan is for upgrading to natural grass? It can't happen soon enough for me.

MatO - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 02:25 PM EST (#295532) #

Nothing has changed re natural grass in the dome. The plan is to have for 2018. Partly due to giving the Argos some lead time to find a new home (nothing happening there yet), partly to work with the University of Guelph and sod providers to develop a grass strain for the unique circumstances of a dome and partly due to the extensive renovations to the floor of the dome that need to made to accommodate grass which need planning and engineering.

krose - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 02:25 PM EST (#295533) #

According to his twitter account Melky will play on any surface.

dan gordon - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 04:43 PM EST (#295537) #

Mike, the one who catches my eye on that list is Jordy Lara from the Mariners organization. It's a bit early to take him, but I'd be very tempted. Canha is interesting, but at his age, playing in the PCL, his numbers don't grab me. Valera looks like a Joe Panik kind of player - no power, not really a base stealer, doesn't walk much, but a high average. At 22, he has some runway to get better. He probably interests me more than Canha.

Mike Green - Friday, November 28 2014 @ 06:12 PM EST (#295538) #

Dan, don't forget that Canha is playing in the American Association part of the PCL and they play a severely unbalanced schedule. It's nothing like playing for Las Vegas. High Desert, on the other hand, is an extreme hitter's environment- that's where Lara did his bopping.