Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Gose Gone

Via MLB Trade Rumors: The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired second base prospect Devon Travis from the Tigers in exchange for center fielder Anthony Gose.

Typical AA - a trade that comes out of nowhere, that no one would've ever thought about.

Travis is entering his age 24 season, drafted in 2012 and is viewed as one of, if not the top prospect in the Tigers system (BA has him as #1). 239 games at 2B in the minors just 3 in CF but the Tigers were converting him to CF on a permanent basis due to his being blocked at the ML level there. I suspect the Jays will shift him back to 2B though unless his defense there is poor. In AA he hit 298/358/460 before going down with an injury (not seen as a serious one long term). Was rated the #84 prospect in MLB pre-2014 by BA. Steamer at FanGraphs sees him as a 273/320/401 hitter if in the majors for 2015, with a 2.3 fWAR which would be a big improvement at 2B.

Posted by John Northey on Wednesday, November 12 2014 @ 11:39 PM EST.

Gose Gone | 120 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Jdog - Wednesday, November 12 2014 @ 11:51 PM EST (#294979) #

love it! I saw Gose as very expendable with Pompey and Pillar ...I have no idea about Travis but he seems to have a good hit tool which is the type of prospect that sometimes is underrated.

dan gordon - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:05 AM EST (#294981) #

Well, you can count me as a BIG fan of this trade. I really soured on Gose's potential over the last 3 years, as he wasn't improving as a hitter. I have serious doubts that he will ever be a decent hitter in the big leagues. Pompey and Pillar are both way ahead of him in my books.

Travis has produced some good numbers in the last 2 years. In 2013, between A and high A, he hit .351/.418/.518/.936, and walked almost as often as he struck out, with only 64 K's in over 500 AB's. No idea how his defense at 2B is rated, but I see a note on him before the 2014 season that describes him as a "great athlete", and he can certainly run, as shown by his 38 steals vs 9 CS in the last 2 years. I am presuming the Jays are looking at him as a possible answer at 2B either at the start of next season, or after a couple of months in Buffalo.

A few more things on Travis. He is a righty hitter, and showed very little platoon difference in his hitting vs righties or lefties. He got off to a very slow start in 2014, but starting May 27th, his numbers were excellent, much closer to his 2013 stats.

Ron - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:08 AM EST (#294982) #

Keith Law has shared his thoughts on the trade "Failed prospect traded for non-prospect. GM Meetings Fever - catch it!"

I liked Gose in the OF but his bat simply isn't good enough to be a Starter. He was given a great opportunity to seize the CF job and he failed.

I've never even heard of Travis until this trade. After reading several reports/articles, he seems like a scrappy undersized 2B. There's another guy like this that plays in the AL East. Well at least it looks like Izturis won't be handed the starting 2B job.

Kyle Drabek is the last "prospect" left from the Halladay trade (d'Arnaud, Gose, Taylor, Wallace are all gone).

The current Halladay trade looks like this:

Halladay/d'Arnaud/Syndergaard/Becerra for Dickey/Thole/Travis/Drabek/Nickeas

Thomas - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:21 AM EST (#294983) #

Someone who is less tired than I am can come up with a good analogy for what being the #1 ranked prospect in this Tigers system is equivalent to, but I'm a fan of the trade nonetheless. Gose had clearly been surpassed by Pompey on the depth charts this season and, while he has a number of attributes that suggest he'd be a good fourth outfielder at least (primarily excellent defence and speed), he also made a number of fundamental mistakes that aren't unusual for a rookie, but nevertheless did not suggest he was ready to run with that role. Also, the reports about his attitude problems continued in the background.

Travis may not have a prospect's pedigree, but all he's done in the minors is hit. Assuming that he's able to play at 2B, and I don't recall any reports from 2013 suggesting that he would have to move, this fills a clear organizational need with a prospect that could give the club average production at rookie's salary for the next several years. Matt Carpenter was a non-prospect for an extended period of time, too.

This relieves some pressure from the club with regards to filling the hole at second base/middle infield, but I would be a little surprised if this was the only move they made.

cruzin - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:32 AM EST (#294984) #

Interesting trade, trying to fill the 2nd base black hole, though who knows if Devon Travis will be ready to grab it this spring, but the opportunity will be there.

Overall a good trade for both teams addressing their respective area of need.

dan gordon - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:48 AM EST (#294985) #

Travis' Range factor on MILB is listed as 5.02 in 2013 and 4.40 in 2014. If you average them out to 4.71, that's a good number. Only 23 errors in the 2 years combined.

I don't see how a guy who seems to be able to handle 2B and hit like Travis can be labeled a non-prospect. I think he's got a good shot.

JB21 - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 01:10 AM EST (#294986) #

Keith Law likes to be extreme. Pretty much every other evaluator says Travis is a legit prospect. Apparently he's one of Steamers favourite prospects in baseball for 2014.

Fangraphs' notes here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blue-jays-and-tigers-make-minor-trade-that-might-matter/

China fan - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 01:14 AM EST (#294987) #

This is a risky trade in a couple of ways: Travis has a worrying injury history, and might not be ready for the majors in 2015, and -- more importantly -- the Jays have lost a lot of depth at a premium position (CF). It's gutsy of Anthopoulos to decide that he can afford to lose both Rasmus AND Gose, the two best CF on the team last year, and to essentially give the job to Pompey and Pillar, both of whom have less MLB experience than Gose. It obviously shows that the Jays have a huge amount of faith in Pompey, and presumably his AFL playing stint in the past few weeks has convinced them that he is ready. Let's hope he is ready, because the Jays have lost a huge amount of depth at CF overnight.

Jonny German - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 01:50 AM EST (#294988) #

Ah, it seems like just yesterday China Fan was telling me that Steve Tolleson was a legitimate backup centre fielder...

It's a good trade. Travis may not amount to anything (he is older than you'd like for a prospect), but Gose had clearly stagnated and was starting to get in the way. Between Pillar, Mayberry, and Dirks the Jays still have 3 questionable options for 2 outfield spots.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 05:40 AM EST (#294989) #

The current Halladay trade looks like this:
Halladay/d'Arnaud/Syndergaard/Becerra for Dickey/Thole/Travis/Drabek/Nickeas

Halladay was traded partially for d'Arnaud, so you can't put them both on the same side of the equation. They're not independent. You could say instead that he Halladay trade looks like:

Halladay/Syndergaard/Becerra for Dickey/Thole/Travis/Drabek/Nickeas.

If you look at that as Dickey for Halladay that's an extraordinary pull for Toronto. Halladay wasn't going to pitch another day for Toronto and would only be traded to Philadelphia. The team had 0 bargaining power. Extraordinary return in the circumstances. Syndergaard for the rest I wouldn't do, but that was really part of the extraordinary return for Halladay.

greenfrog - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 06:44 AM EST (#294990) #

Dombrowski had good success with trading for the defense-first Iglesias. He might be looking at Gose as a similar type of asset.

It's really too bad that players like Gose (for trading purposes) and Rasmus (for QO purposes) fizzled so badly for the Jays. A bit better performance from those players would have been helpful to AA this off-season.

Lugnut Fan - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 07:47 AM EST (#294991) #

I have watched Devon Travis and know a little bit about him. He was expendable from a Tiger's stand point because of Kinsler, Hernan Perez and potentially Eugenio Suarez being in front of him. They were starting to play around with him in CF and was slated to play there in the AFL this fall before he was side lined with core surgery similar to what Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander had last year.

Travis isn't going to wow you that he does anything great. He is a low ceiling, high floor guy that probably has about hit the point where he is going to be as good he gets. He has the hit tool, but his speed, range and average to slightly below average. He will catch what he gets too, he runs the bases fairly well and he is a smart player. All that being said, I really don't see him significantly contributing at the MLB level this year due to the core surgery although it wouldn't shock me to see him get some MLB time.

I like this move better for the Jays than I do the Tigers, that is for sure.

85bluejay - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 08:19 AM EST (#294993) #

I like this trade for Detroit - initially, the tigers are saying that Gose will be the everyday CF, which is important in that ballpark - even if he becomes just a 4th outfielder, having him in CF late in games instead of Davis is a big plus.

For the Jays it's a nice gamble for a declining asset that the org. seems to have soured on - it's the kind of gamble that a team without much money to spend has to make. Interesting tidbit - original guy from the Halladay trade Michael Taylor has failed (though I'd like to see the jays sign him as a milb FA), his replacement Brett Wallace was a bust, his replacement Gose disappointed and now Travis - it would be fun & ironic if the least heralded prospect on acquisition, Travis, finally give the jays some value.

If Travis makes it, the range factor between him & reyes especially on turf is going to make pitchers & fans wince

BlueJayWay - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 08:20 AM EST (#294994) #

Well, I was defnitely underwhelmed on the return for Lind, as I said on another thread. However this trade I like a lot. It seems this is about the best potential return they could've gotten for Gose...not a uber-prospect certainly, but somebody who might be solid, and at a position of need. Keith Law tweeted that he considers him a non-prospect but Baseball America had him rated fairly highly, and actually as the #1 prospect in Detroit's system...though in the state that's in that ranking isn't as impressive as it seems probably. Nevertheless I really like this.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 08:53 AM EST (#294995) #

Terrific trade. Here is Travis' minor league line. I am a fan of the combination of control of the strike zone, contact ability, medium range power and stolen base efficiency. I've watched some video and it looks to me like he will be an average defender at second base.

And as for Gose, he's got some tremendous raw tools but perhaps not the patience to develop them to their fullest extent. I wish him well in Detroit. There is certainly a great opportunity for him there.

CeeBee - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 08:53 AM EST (#294996) #

I like the trade. Clears a bit of a prospect logjam and fills a prospect hole. We will know how it turns out eventually but for now count me as liking it from a Jays standpoint.

ogator - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 09:10 AM EST (#294997) #

Where would Travis be on the Blue Jay top 30 prospects list?

Dave Till - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 09:11 AM EST (#294998) #

It is characteristic of AA not to take the easy way out. Many GMs in his position would have opened the season with Gose in CF and Pompey in left, and given Gose at least a half season in the job.

Travis might be a decent prospect, but it could go either way: a .298 average in double-A is neither wonderful nor horrible.

It does leave the Jays with a bit of a hole in the outfield if Pompey is a year away (which I think he is). At present, it looks like they will open the season with Pillar in left, Pompey in center, and Joey Bats in right, with Izturis at second.

Chuck - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 09:12 AM EST (#294999) #

There is certainly a great opportunity for him there.

There definitely is. Rajai Davis is a weak defender in CF and cannot hit RHP (platoon splits the last two seasons: 857/594, 939/617). Gose doesn't have to do much to be an upgrade vs. RHP.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 09:27 AM EST (#295000) #

Here is an interesting scouting report on Travis. Aside from the sabermetric objections to using a .270/.320/.400 hitter in the 2 slot of the batting order (which are beside the point anyway), it is useful to add to the picture- very good on the DP, quick but actually a little slow. Is Ronnie Belliard a fair comp?

John Northey - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 09:38 AM EST (#295001) #

So lets go through the Halladay trade...
Initially: Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor
Then: Taylor for Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose for Taylor
Also: d'Arnaud (plus Wuilmer Becerra, Noah Syndergaard and John Buck) for R.A. Dickey, Mike Nickeas and Josh Thole.

Syndergaard was a replacement for failing to sign James Paxton. Becerra was an international free agent.

So far of the initial 3 only d'Arnaud has had any value (0.3 bWAR last year, -0.3 the year before so a net of 0 so far but likely to do well this year if he doesn't get more concussions). Drabek is at -0.1 bWAR and now is a reliever in AAA. Taylor has a -1.1 bWAR and is entering his age 29 season. Wallace (-0.6 bWAR) the Jays got back as a minor league free agent and now he is one again. Gose has the highest value so far (1.2 bWAR) even if he hasn't hit yet. Dickey has given the Jays 4.5 bWAR so far, Thole -1.1 for a net of 3.4 (given you need Thole to catch Dickey).

Halladay gave the Phillies 17.1 bWAR plus a playoff no-hitter. Yeah, no question the Phillies won that trade although d'Arnaud could still be worth that much long term for the Mets.

ogator - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 09:43 AM EST (#295002) #

To answer my own question (is that rude?), I think Travis is on the Blue Jay top ten list but definitely not the top five.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 10:07 AM EST (#295003) #

John, if you want to evaluate the Halladay trade, you have to take into account salaries. The Phils paid Halladay $75 million for that 17 WAR. There obviously was significant surplus value, but how much is something that reasonable people can differ on. And, I guess you have to count in Devon Travis into the calculation. He might generate 17 WAR in his pre-arb years, throwing the whole calculation for a loop.

Objective evaluations of veteran star player for prospects trades really have to wait for 10-15 years.

John Northey - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 10:34 AM EST (#295004) #

Good points Mike. So far the Halladay trade is a flop, but d'Arnaud and Travis could change that as both have yet to hit their prime. Yeah, d'Arnaud will do it for the Mets but still it does apply as the Taylor for Wallace for Gose for Travis is a straight line set of trades so it is easy to imagine both being here still (sigh).

Mike Green - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 10:41 AM EST (#295005) #

MLBTR has an excellent summary of future payroll obligations by team (for 2016-2024) in graph and chart form. Short account for the home nine: the Jays are pretty much a blank slate after 2015 (with essentially only Reyes on the books).

bpoz - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 10:55 AM EST (#295006) #

The Phils also received $6mil in the Halladay trade, I believe.

Lylemcr - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 11:14 AM EST (#295007) #

Forget the Halladay trade. He wanted out and to Philadelphia. AA was a bit handcuffed on the trade.

I am luke warm on Gose now. The Jays do have other CF in the system, so he is a bit redundent. It was a trade of a strength position to fill a position they are weak in. It also tells me that they really believe in Pompey.

I also hate players like Gose on the roster. They have "potential" that never get met. You keep them around until they have no value and are released. In the mean time, they block other solutions. It makes me think another move is going to happen. The Jays are short outfielders right now (assuming Pompey starts in AAA).

MatO - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 11:30 AM EST (#295008) #

I think Pompey's worst case scenario as a hitter In 2015 is equivalent to Gose's best case scenario and I think he'll play terrific defence as well. Pillar mashes lefties and is the ideal 4th outfielder. I'm surprised they got anything significant for Gose as I was thinking that Gose would more likely be useful as an add-in on a larger deal.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 11:44 AM EST (#295009) #

I am wondering about Adam LaRoche. Similar profile to Adam Lind- kills RHP, now weak against LHP, but more durable and plays a better defensive first base.

bpoz - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 11:50 AM EST (#295010) #

I expect more moves to be made. The 40 man roster has to be considered. There are some marginal players that IMO can easily be replaced. D Travis does not need to be on the 40 man roster until after 2015, which I see as the biggest benefit of this trade unless Gose figures it out and starts to hit.
And yes the OF depth is very weak. I am sure this will be addressed.

85bluejay - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:00 PM EST (#295011) #

I see that AA in his customary hype mode is alluding to Jose Altuve as a comparison for Devon Travis - to me, I see a Brad Emaus comparison as more apt - hopefully, Travis has a better future

John Northey - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:04 PM EST (#295012) #

Good point bpoz - Gose for Travis opens a slot. The roster has 18 hitters and 21 pitchers right now with an open slot. There are guys who can be dropped easily, and questions on if Francisco will even be offered a contract. I don't see it as crowded right now, but sometimes to get a top AAA free agent you need to offer a 40 man slot so there is value there as well as opening space for free agents.

It'll be interesting to see what happens next...

John Northey - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:17 PM EST (#295013) #

The 'super-two' list is out, the players who go to arbitration even though they are shy of 3 years of ML service - 26 players in all. Drew Hutchison just missed the cut off (5 days short) so the Jays can pay him the minimum if they so desire. A full list is here.

The other AL East teams...
Baltimore: Zach Britton, LHP
Boston: none
New York: David Phelps RHP
Tampa: Drew Smyly, LHP

PeterG - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:17 PM EST (#295014) #

There are also 3 prospects that we have to consider protecting on 40 man: Blake McFarland, Taylor Cole and John Stilson could be lost in Rule 5 if not added to BJ 40 man. From what I saw on tv of McFarland in AFL, he could well be a dark horse candidate for the major league pen.

short - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:20 PM EST (#295015) #

Add Burns and Berti to that list as well.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:20 PM EST (#295016) #

Altuve is a very superficial comparison. He and Travis are both short, play second base and have good contact skills, but that's about it. Altuve is very fast and has very little power. His game is putting the ball in play. Travis can hit home runs to RCF and his offensive game has to be different. A softly hit ground ball for him is a poor outcome.

PeterG - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:36 PM EST (#295017) #

I don't think that any team would take Burns or Berti in Rule 5 while Cole, McFarland and Stilson would be at serious risk of being lost. It's much easier to hide a pitcher in the pen than a position player on the bench. In the case of Stilson he can be stashed on DL . We can put him on 60 day DL in March if we still have him.

metafour - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:41 PM EST (#295019) #

The Pirates' Josh Harrison is probably a better comparison, although Travis was a better MiLB performer and carries more hype than Harrison who was never seen as much of a prospect.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 12:56 PM EST (#295020) #

A.A. spoke to many people about the Adam Lind deal. That's especially handy if you access Podcasts of those shows (TSN Drive with Dave Naylor, hour two, 05 Nov '14). A.A. said the other Team in the mix for Lind would take the player and his entire salary and give nothing back. The fact that he acquiring a useful piece and $4.5 MM of extra space is huge, despite the naysayers.

I read what was available via this site on Devon Travis and think this is a very nice pickup for A.A.. Anyone who thinks he's bad defensively didn't read the same things I did. He's actually good. College kid in AA at age 23 is above average progress by most standards. Sometime in 2015 is the MLB arrival time at that rate of progress. I don't expect anything different. Another good acquisition for A.A., after all, these are mostly Plan B and Plan C stuff anyway.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 01:04 PM EST (#295021) #

Official Blue Jays site says Travis slides into the #9 slot on the prospect list.

Thomas - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 01:45 PM EST (#295022) #

The Jays lost a second centre fielder today, as the Phillies officially announced they signed Darin Mastroianni and several other players to minor league contracts.

China fan - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 01:53 PM EST (#295023) #

"....It seems like just yesterday China Fan was telling me that Steve Tolleson was a legitimate backup centre fielder....."

Jonny knows, of course, that he is misquoting me. But just for the record, in case anyone is tempted to be misled by him: I never said anything resembling that. I said that, in a pinch, he could back up the OF for a few innings if there was an injury DURING a game and nobody else was available.

The phrase "legitimate backup centre fielder" -- in the parlance of normal baseball discourse, which Jonny is mischievously ignoring -- means someone who can regularly back up the position over the course of a season. It means a 4th OF like a Gose or Pillar who can regularly back up all OF positions over the course of a season. And, please check the record, I never suggested that someone like Tolleson is remotely in that category.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 02:23 PM EST (#295024) #

Doesn't the Rule 5 draft occur about now - after the GM Meetings?

Gerry - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 02:39 PM EST (#295025) #

The rule 5 draft is held after the winter meetings. The winer meetings are different from the GM meetings. Winter meetings are held in December after US Thanksgiving.

PeterG - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 02:40 PM EST (#295026) #

Rule 5 is in December after Winter Meetings. I believe it is on December 11 this year.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 02:49 PM EST (#295028) #

Thank You.

short - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 04:00 PM EST (#295029) #

I believe the eligible players have to be added to the 40 man roster by the 20th of November to be protected.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 04:45 PM EST (#295030) #

With Gose out of the picture it looks like Pompey is set to start at CF.

The biggest question now becomes which has the greatest value to the team? Assuming Melky resigns we can either have Pillar in LF, Edwin @1st and Melky @DH. Another option is Smoak @1st, Edwin DH and Melky in LF.

I assuming these two configurations might get a lot of playing time, but I don't mind the idea of splitting Dirks & Pillar in LF.

scottt - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 04:52 PM EST (#295031) #

Would be a good trade if Travis was healthy.

I don't see Melky back. Certainly not to DH.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 05:23 PM EST (#295032) #

Who said Travis was unhealthy? Must be a personal opinion back by something or nothing? Travis was hurt, had surgery and is all better - at least the Sportsnet official site says that. Unhealthy and injured are the apples and oranges for this discussion - huge difference.

JB21 - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 06:25 PM EST (#295033) #

If Melky resigns he will play the majority of his time in LF while getting some rest at DH.

I'm also not sure where the Travis is injured part has come from. Here is a direct quote, from the man himself.

"I'm done with rehab and I feel great," Travis told MLive on Wednesday. "I'm 100 percent. I've been sprinting and lifting for about a month now."

Also, I don't follow many players on twitter as a general rule but I came across this while searching for the injury status of Travis.

https://twitter.com/MStrooo6/status/532897319654809600/photo/1

Pretty fun stuff.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, November 13 2014 @ 11:16 PM EST (#295034) #

Was just thinking.. another title for this thread could have been "Gose-ing, Gose-ing, Gone".. :-)

SK in NJ - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 12:21 AM EST (#295035) #

I like the new emphasis on internal development. Having young players with minor league success being groomed to take over MLB roles is very exciting. Hopefully AA can acquire one elite player if he plans to go cheaper in other areas (Russell Martin, please!!).

rpriske - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 08:38 AM EST (#295036) #

Keith Law is one of those guys that seems to think that the term 'prospect' should only be sued for players they think will turn into big stars.

From all accounts Travis has a good chance to become a major league regular within a couple of years. That sounds like a prospect to me.

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 09:23 AM EST (#295037) #

the term 'prospect' should only be sued for players they think will turn into big stars

Nice typo. The terms of art by the way are "target defendant" and "deep pockets".

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 09:41 AM EST (#295038) #

In Arizona yesterday, Sean Nolin gave up 3 runs in 5 innings walking nobody while striking out 7. Jon Berti had 3 hits including a 3 run homer and Dwight Smith played second base. With Gose out and Travis in, and Barreto and Urena on the way, it is not clear to me that the club's need for a second baseman is so acute to merit the effort to transform Smith.

John Northey - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 09:47 AM EST (#295039) #

So, with Travis the Jays have a long term solution at 2B, although it might not be ready for 2015. So what does AA chase down now? Does he sign Kawasaki and have him and Goins and Tolleson and Valencia split time at 2B until Travis is ready or go out and get a stronger player who he might have to find a position for if Travis is ready this year?

The big hole now is LF/CF/DH. Pompey & Pillar are nice prospects but neither is a sure thing and I'd rather not trust them for more than one position. Mayberry, Smoak, Dirks, Francisco are all in the LF/DH mix as would be Valencia. Maybe between all those players you can piece together CF/LF/DH/2B but it wouldn't be pretty.

Also of note, BR has estimated payrolls up, listing the Jays as being at $128 million for 2015 including Romero and the buyouts for Santos/Morrow/McGowan ($2.25 mil for all the buyouts, $7.5 mil for Romero). The variable contracts with estimated value are...
Estrada: $4.7 (3rd year arb)
Smoak: $3.0 (2nd year)
Cecil: $2.6 (2nd year)
Francisco: $2.2 (1st year)
Mayberry: $1.9 (2nd year)
Lawrie: $1.8 (1st year)
Valencia: $1.7 (1st year)
Dirks: $1.6 (1st year)

So if Cabrera isn't signed then the Jays have at least $9 mil based on last years budget, possibly more. I suspect a LF/DH is the next target while AA figures that if Travis isn't ready we'll see Valencia/Francisco/Tolleson/Kawasaki/Goins fight it out for 2B or 3B (with Lawrie going to 2B). I would expect that AA is looking for a quality 3B or 2B who could be shifted to DH or LF if needed who would be on a one year deal then free agency. Most likely via a trade. Another OF would be on his list too if he feels Cabrera won't be coming back.

All of that basically means that signing Martin would make a ton of sense. Put him at 3B mostly to start the year with Lawrie at 2B and Navarro/Thole catching then shift behind the plate once Travis is ready and do more DH rotation. Use a mix/match in LF/DH while the kids take over CF. Should be interesting to see if that happens. Doubt it, as Martin probably goes elsewhere but it is an interesting one.

ogator - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 09:52 AM EST (#295040) #

I wonder what Jon Berti thought of the Gose for Travis trade. It probably didn't make his breakfast taste any better.

MatO - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:04 AM EST (#295041) #

More on Travis. He had an oblique injury early in the season and when he returned in May he really didn't hit much but starting in June he went .309 .364 .526 July .328 .396 .445 August .296 .374 .481. He had a reverse platoon split for the second straight year. Playing at Erie didn't seem to have helped him at all as he was way better on the road with .902 OPS. If he had been in the Jays system he would certainly have seen AAA and there's a good possibility he would have been called up in September if he had been healthy. He reminds me a shorter version of Aaron Hill.

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:13 AM EST (#295042) #

Anthopoulos is now in a much better position. There are several ways he can improve the team significantly, including at positions where there is often a lot of underpriced talent available. To give an example, there is merit to Bautista playing rightfield or playing first base on the 2015 club. Either a corner outfielder or a first baseman would help the club to play where Bautista is not. Russ Martin would help obviously, if the financial aspect can be worked out.

I am pretty sure that one or more of the arb candidates on John Northey's list will be non-tendered.

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:22 AM EST (#295043) #

He reminds me a shorter version of Aaron Hill.

Funny. Here are Aaron Hill's age 32 BBRef comps. A lot of underrated second basemen, including Ronnie Belliard (who I mentioned upthread).

John Northey - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:31 AM EST (#295044) #

Mike, I completely agree that one or more of those arb cases will be let go.
Likely Cut: Smoak, Francisco
Possible cut: Estrada
Unlikely: Valencia, Mayberry, Dirks (all cheap and useful)
No chance of being cut: Lawrie, Cecil

Smoak was a waiver wire get - cost nothing to get, Jays might have been wanting to do a more intense check of his health and might be trying to sign him to a cheaper deal than the projected $3 mil.
Francisco should've been an automatic keep with his crazy good May (1013 OPS) and strong July (258/319/532), but a sub 400 OPS in August/September changed things and his poor defense at 3B didn't help
Estrada is a likely keep, especially if the Jays find a new home for Happ but if the Jays feel they won't find a home for Happ then they might just say 'screw it' if the payroll is tight.

I think Francisco could be kept if the Jays feel it was an injury that was hidden in August that killed his season. His power potential is significant and if the holes that emerged in August are injury based then he could be worth a lot as a DH/1B/3B. Smoak I doubt sticks around, and Estrada I expect to be kept.

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:39 AM EST (#295045) #

I am not sure if Mayberry has a role in a short-bench environment. I hope that he's around, but it would probably mean that the club deviated from the norm with respect to bullpen usage and size. That is certainly possible with the talent on hand- Sanchez and Estrada could definitely handle regular multi-inning assignments and the club could aim for a late 70s/early 80s division of roles and a 6 man pen.

DJRob - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:47 AM EST (#295046) #

I no longer understand why Dirks was released by the Tigers.

vw_fan17 - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:53 AM EST (#295047) #

Anyone know Maicer Izturis' injury status? According to Cot's, he's signed through 2015, with a team option ($3M/$1M buyout) for 2016. So, unless he's still on the DL, wouldn't he be "in the mix" for 2B for 2015/2016? At least for an extended look in ST?

Ryan Day - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:54 AM EST (#295048) #

It's worth considering that the Tigers would have better information about Dirks' recovery & rehab than anyone else. He had a bunch of setbacks while trying to rehab this year - they may have decided he was unlikely to recover enough to be a contributor on a team that's built for the playoffs.

Totally a good gamble for the Jays to take, but "recovery from back surgery" is not a sure thing.

SK in NJ - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 11:18 AM EST (#295049) #

Dirks was let go because of his injury history. It might end up being a worthwhile gamble for the Jays since the OF looks a little thin right now but I'm not expecting anything from him until he proves he is healthy.

As far as non-tenders, with Lind gone, there is no need to keep Mayberry, unless they plan on starting Francisco at 1B (which I highly doubt). If I had to guess, I'd say Dirks, Estrada, and Valencia will be tendered, while Mayberry and Francisco will not. Smoak will depend on who they get in the off-season. I have a feeling he will be the first baseman next season but if they bring Melky back (for example) then Smoak is not required.

John Northey - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 11:29 AM EST (#295050) #

Yeah, I forget about Izturis. He'll be in the mix in spring I'm sure - Jays are on the hook for $4 mil to him regardless ($3 mil plus buyout).

Interesting looking at BR and seeing the payroll figures. The Dodgers are over $200 mil, Yankees $186, everyone else below $160 right now. Jays currently projected with the 9th biggest payroll, which is a reasonable spot for them (top 10 but not top 2 - those 2 are insane). They should spend about $20 mil more to be solidly in the top 10. 11 are projected in the $120+ range (pre-free agents) with 7 in the $140+ and 4 in the $120's - the Jays really belong in the $140+ range given market size and potential revenue and where in the success cycle they are (or hope to be).

On the other end, Houston is below $50 mil, Miami in the $50s, and 3 teams in the $60s but not for long as that group includes Pittsburgh (likely to stay near that), and both Chicago teams - and neither of them are likely to stick in that low territory.

I wonder if Texas is tempted to start dumping salaries? We know Philly should but they have tons of no-trade and the like to deal with. Beltre in Texas would be super-temping if available as he is on a 1 year deal with an option for 2016 (needs 600 PA to activate it) but I don't see anyone else they have that would both be tempting and expensive and trade-able (Darvish isn't going anywhere, Andrus is signed through 2022, Choo is owed way too much, and you'd be nuts to trade for Fielder unless Texas ate the rest of his contract). Cincinnati might be dumping (they are debating going full rebuild or full go-for-it) Votto coming off injuries and the like might be available but scary contract situation (signed for ages 31-39 at over $20 mil per on average), Brandon Phillips has been solid at 2B bWAR of 1.7past 2 years after a 6 year stretch with with 22.2 bWAR) 3 years $39 mil ages 34-36 so a big risk, Jay Bruce coming off a poor season (84 OPS+ after a 4 year stretch of 121) owed about $25 mil over next 2 years in RF. Milwaukee is also in cutting mode, Matt Garza is a guy the Jays liked at times signed for 3 years $37.5 mil plus option year 4 - but hasn't started 30+ since 2011. Aramis Ramirez is a 3B entering age 37 season owed $14 mil next year coming off a 109 OPS+, lifetime 116, but wouldn't count on him for more than 2 WAR. Hrm. Not finding much of value am I?

So anyone have ideas of teams that are dumping and quality that might be available? Of course, the Cubs and White Sox have so much payroll room they might suction up anyone good.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 11:41 AM EST (#295051) #

Smoak is one of those guys A.A. has been after for some time now. It would be a shock to see him non-tendered. There is a marked difference in how he's hitting now as when he was doing well. The Jays think they can fix that. So I think he stays.

John Northey - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 11:42 AM EST (#295052) #

One more thought... Yasmany Tomas is a Cuban OF slugger who is available at age 24 and wants $100 mil. Shi Davidi says the Jays aren't interested but current rumours are that 3 'unlikely' teams are in the hunt. He is a fan of Bautista and probably would like to share the OF with him and can play 3B too it seems. If he is for real with the power he could make more sense to sign than Cabrera - you'd be getting his prime years and 'all' he would cost is money. The Jays would be foolish not to debate it seriously.

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 11:51 AM EST (#295053) #

Tomas is (according to both subjective reports and statistics) not ready for the Show. He probably needs at least 3 months in the high minors. He doesn't make a lot of sense for the Blue Jays, who need to spend dollars like that on players who can help them throughout 2015.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 12:03 PM EST (#295054) #

I'd take Votto in a heartbeat. Here he doesn't need to be the main offensive force Cincinnati needs him to be, Bautista and Encarnacion do that here. With grass coming in in 2017, it could solve many problems.

bpoz - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 12:11 PM EST (#295055) #

D Smith Jr should be in AA and playing everyday. He hits for Avg & takes a BB. He would look good at 2B if he can handle the defense. Less appealing in the OF due to power, but is versatile.
Then there is a huge collection of AAA ready IF that have something to offer. Goins gives great defense but no bat at the ML level so far. Goins has made very good improvement in the next year following a promotion, so who knows. D Travis, J Berti & A Burns also offer something, each has different strengths and have a chance. Lets see what they do at AAA.

PeterG - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 12:13 PM EST (#295056) #

I believe that Mayberry will be tendered. Some interesting decisions ahead, for sure.

Hodgie - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 01:26 PM EST (#295057) #

If the Jays are going to look at a Cuban, I would hope that they bypass Tomas and decide to be daring with someone like Moncada. He won't help them in 2015, but come 2017-18 when one can dream on players like Barreto and Urena being ready to contribute having a glut of possible high-end MLB ready middle-infield prospects would be an enviable problem to have.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 02:03 PM EST (#295058) #

If we look at our best Starters there will be decisions to make.

Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Aaron Sanchez are the cream with Daniel Norris coming up extremely fast, with an ETA as any time in 2015. The hottest riser behind Norris is now Miguel Castro since being noticed by A.A. As dominant as he's been, I suspect he's at least a September call-up.

R.A. Dickey's contract can have him here for two more years. I can't see him traded without someone blowing A.A. away with an offer, he's too valuable an asset. Mark Buehrle's contract is prohibitive to be traded unless A.A. kicks in $6.0 MM. He's an effective pitcher on an expiring contract, that has big value.

J.A. Happ has become a very good end of the rotation Starter with the ability to really crank up the heat on his fastball. Another very effective pitcher on an expiring contract, that has big value. It should be noted that Marco Estrada's issues are the same Happ had when we acquired him. So there's hope for Marco.

That leaves Kendall Graveman, whom I don't know enough about other than he's really good. And this is Jeff Hoffman's first year pitching since surgery - what do we have? I didn't forget anyone who might be useful for the Team in 2015.

I just think that trading a Starter and a Pitching Prospect is possible if necessary.

short - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 02:09 PM EST (#295059) #

The AFL ended yesterday for Toronto players:

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=tor

Championship game tomorrow on mlb.com and mlb network

SK in NJ - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 02:52 PM EST (#295060) #

Counting on Sanchez to throw 180 effective MLB innings next season is a stretch, but I think they've already made up their minds (Sanchez as #5 with Estrada as the swing man). It's just a matter of what they can get for Happ. A report at the trade deadline and a few days ago mentioned AA's continuing interest in Bastardo from the Phillies. I could see a Happ/Bastardo type of deal being realistic. I'm not sure Happ's value is much higher than that.

Mike Green - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 04:05 PM EST (#295061) #

Bastardo isn't really ideal for high leverage relief innings. Ideally, you do have two pitchers down there to fill that role, and if Sanchez is starting and Estrada is a swing man, they would be a-searchin'.

SK in NJ - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 05:21 PM EST (#295062) #

I'm not advocating trading for Bastardo, I just think there is a fit there based on AA's interest in him and the Phillies connection with Happ. I'd rather trade Happ for a OF, but other than possibly a buy low on Michael Saunders, I can't think of any that would be an upgrade and/or a realistic return for Happ.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 06:35 PM EST (#295063) #

Didn't A.A. remark last offseason the price for any pitcher started with two of Sanchez, Stroman, Hutchison, plus more?
If that's true, Happ should be worth more than just another Aaron Loup-lite.

jerjapan - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 07:09 PM EST (#295064) #

Agreed Richard, the price for Happ is higher then a lot of posters here think (although not what AA says it is ...).

Frankly, I don't get many Bauxites evaluations of the cost of talent. It may not be logical in the real world to pay adam lind 7.5, or marco estrada 4, or Happ 6.8, or even mark buehrle 20 million, but this is the nature of the game. stockpile all the affordable prospects you want, bemoan free agent contracts and keep playing rotiserie baseball.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 07:09 PM EST (#295065) #

When Detroit made Victor Martinez their top priority this offseason, they moved quickly to re-sign him. A.A. on the other hand seldom moves fast on big ticket items, and never sets a priority on signing/re-signing anyone. Miami deal is excluded.

When was the last time A.A. paid fair market value in signing anyone? Is it possible that's why he prefers trades, because his price is never as much as fair market value?

To do justice to my questions, I realize fair market value is usually more than anyone wants to pay. You having to be willing to do so to pay that value.

SK in NJ - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 07:45 PM EST (#295066) #

Many here said Lind had little value given his terrible defense, injury history, limited overall value, etc, and those who had that opinion were proven correct. While a cheap young talent with elite defense and speed went for way more than most people here would have thought (Gose/Travis) despite some here not liking him. There is always a chance a particular GM overvalues a limited player, but you can't assume a 1 win starter who has trouble eating innings like Happ is worth a lot.

Don't get me wrong, I hope AA robs another team for Happ, but I'm still looking at his value realistically. I think a high leverage reliever is probably a realistic return (I just mentioned Bastardo because AA seems to be after him a lot). It could be a reliever from the Braves, too. But I'm not expecting a real difference maker.

PeterG - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 08:15 PM EST (#295067) #

I agree with the thought that Happ is worth more than most think. Starting pitching is in demand and he was probably one of the best 5th starters in the majors. He would be even better in the NL and a 4th on some teams. I would even consider keeping him and moving Dickey if the return for Dickey (also would be better in NL) was sufficiently better.

SK in NJ - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 10:12 PM EST (#295069) #

Jeremy Hellickson has been traded to the Diamondbacks. Hellickson is pretty bad, so it's probably a bad thing that the Rays got rid of him (from the Jays perspective). He is still living off his 2011 and 2012 ERA's, most likely. Hope the Rays didn't get anyone good.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 14 2014 @ 11:44 PM EST (#295070) #

I always thought Adam Lind played decent defense and usually got hurt exceeding his abilities. I don't care how well he hits, he only does half the job. But paying for two players to do one players job is excessive, especially with the HR drought and his stepping over the line with the press, mid-season.

I always thought Anthony Gose would learn to hit up here. But every time he returned after being sent down, it was apparent he learned nothing. He had several years to learn, but he never learned how to bunt. As good as his is, if he won't learn, you can't keep him.

christaylor - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 07:29 AM EST (#295071) #

greenfrog - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 09:35 AM EST (#295072) #

I don't mind the Gose trade, but I'm not yet sold on Travis as a quality everyday ML second baseman. He does provide the Jays with improved depth at the position and a shot - a shot - at a player who can take over the position (at low cost). That's a shot worth taking, but not necessarily a "job well done, now let's get some lunch" situation for the Jays' front office.

Acquiring Gose is a nice move for the Tigers. He'll take some PA against RHP away from Davis, improve the Tigers' defense, give them another basestealing threat, and provide some inexpensive depth in case of injury.

Mike Green - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 09:47 AM EST (#295073) #

Upthread, I referred to the chart and mentioned that the Jays are basically a blank slate after 2015. That's not quite true. They hold valuable options for Bautista and Encarnacion for 2016, and an option that they might exercise for Dickey depending on how he does in 2015.

Right now, the club has 15 pitchers who would be reasonable bets to deliver at least 30 decent major league innings in 2015- Stroman, Buehrle, Dickey, Hutchison, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez, Jenkins, Graveman, Cecil, Loup, Nolin, Redmond, Hendriks, Norris. That's just about the right number for a 12 man staff given the possibility of injury and the desirability of allowing Norris more development time at the beginning of the year.

Chuck - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 10:00 AM EST (#295074) #

He [Travis] does provide the Jays with improved depth at the position and a shot - a shot - at a player who can take over the position (at low cost).

I concur with this. Some are assuming that Travis will be, in short order, a league average second baseman. Whoa Nellie! That's a tall order. Let's just see where he slots in between replacement level and league average (assuming he is at least at replacement level) and go from there.

Mike Green - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 10:13 AM EST (#295076) #

That's too negative, Chuck. If put in the lineup on May 1, Travis will be anywhere from replacement level to quite a bit above average (with mid-range expectations reasonably close to average). When you put Ryan Goins in the lineup (as they did last year), you're looking at a range from replacement level to average. Travis' range of performance is pretty comparable to someone like Jed Lowrie's (not that I would mind if the club signed Lowrie). There is a veteran bias that is unwarranted, particularly in the middle infield where defensive value can fade very quickly.

Tampa's return in the Hellickson trade was significant. Between Velazquez and Williams, it is likely that the Rays have one very useful position player for 2017. All of Friedman's wisdom does not appear to have left the Rays' organization with his departure. I wonder if he will end up as the closest thing to Branch Rickey. One organization down, two to go...

smcs - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 10:22 AM EST (#295077) #

Nice graph on future payroll obligations by team. From this there's no reason to accept the excuse of "payroll parameters". The Jays are well positioned to sign a name FA (or two) if the FA agrees to a backloaded contract. Perhaps the V-Mart et al rumors aren't merely the team doing due diligence...

That kind of exaggerates the amount of space they actually have. It should include how many players are under contract, as well. Currently, the only player the Jays have signed for 2016 or 2017 is Jose Reyes. I'd imagine the Jays pick up the options on Bautista and Encarnacion for '16, so now it is up to $49MM for 3 players. If Dickey throws another 200 innings at at least league average, I'd say his option gets picked up. Now you are looking at $60MM for 4 players. If the other 21 spots on the roster were to by players making an average of $3MM (a figure picked out of my head), that's a $123MM payroll. The $3M figure might be high, as the Jays have a lot of young players who will be making league minimum or in their 1st year of arbitration (Pompey, Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, Travis, Pillar and Hutchison), but the Jays paid $70M for Buehrle, Dickey, Reyes, Bautista and Encarnacion, and about $60M for everyone else (plus $8M for Ricky Romero) in 2014.

Chuck - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:00 AM EST (#295078) #

That's too negative, Chuck.

I hope you're right (and I concede that you often are). I just find it optimistic that the 15th best second baseman in baseball is a soon-to-be 24-year old in the minors who hasn't played an inning in the majors yet.

China fan - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:12 AM EST (#295079) #

"....Right now, the club has 15 pitchers who would be reasonable bets to deliver at least 30 decent major league innings in 2015...."

MIke, that's quite an optimistic projection for Graveman, Nolin and Hendriks. I'd be happy if just one of those three is able to pitch successfully at the major-league level in 2015. Given the risks of injury and unexpected performance declines from the veterans, he needs more depth.

I think Anthopoulos will acquire at least 2 or 3 bullpen pieces in the next couple of months. It's possible that only one of them will be a high-level MLB veteran who has the potential to be a closer. The others could be lower-end relievers or depth pieces, but they will be needed, and AA knows it. If he trades a starter such as Happ and ends up putting Estrada into the rotation until Sanchez/Norris are ready, he'll need another reliever too. I would expect him to acquire several. The Jays need at least 10 or 11 relievers to survive the season. Two or three of them can be of the calibre of Jenkins or Redmond, but he certainly doesn't have enough bullpen depth in the organization at the moment, unless miraculously the team gets excellent performances from all of the Graveman or Nolin types.

Mike Green - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:33 AM EST (#295080) #

Chuck, the 14th-16th best second basemen in MLB last year according to fWAR were Scooter Gennett, Brandon Phillips, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Significantly better were the likes of Daniel Murphy and Neil Walker. The average for second basemen is basically average defence and slightly below average offence. Cabrera had a wRC+ of 97 (.241/.307/.387) and played slightly below average defence according to UZR (which fWAR uses). I don't think that it is optimistic to say that Travis' realistic upside for 2015 is noticeably better than that, in the same way that his realistic downside is noticeably worse.

Mike Green - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:45 AM EST (#295081) #

MIke, that's quite an optimistic projection for Graveman, Nolin and Hendriks. I'd be happy if just one of those three is able to pitch successfully at the major-league level in 2015. Given the risks of injury and unexpected performance declines from the veterans, he needs more depth.

Not really. I don't have the same view as many about true talent and variability among pitchers, and the importance of role on performance. I think that if they put Sanchez and Norris in the rotation in May, there's a very good chance that one flames out spectacularly. On the other hand, I do think that if you put Nolin or Graveman or Hendriks (or Norris) in a low leverage bullpen role that the odds are pretty good that they will deliver performance comparable to what Todd Redmond did in 2013-4. I am as comfortable with each of them as I was with Redmond when he joined the club in 2013. The difference with Norris, of course, is that he may explode on the league and be one of the best pitchers in the league from the outset. There is pretty much no chance that any of the others can do that.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:48 AM EST (#295082) #

There are lots of minor league positional players who look like they could be useful, average ML players. "Could," being the key word. It often doesn't work out. Shortstop Tyler Pastornicky is one middle infielder who was similarly touted on this site. He has a respectable 280/343/376 line in the minors, with reportedly solid defensive abilities, but has hit only 243/295/314 in the majors (-1.4 fWAR in 268 PA). It's not always a seamless transition, and even when the player eventually becomes an asset, it can take a year or three.

China fan - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:54 AM EST (#295083) #

"....I do think that if you put Nolin or Graveman or Hendriks (or Norris) in a low leverage bullpen role that the odds are pretty good that they will deliver performance comparable to what Todd Redmond did in 2013-4...."

Sure, but then you've got a bullpen with 4 or 5 average pitchers (or rookies) and only 1 or 2 elite pitchers. The Jays need more than Cecil and Loup for high-leverage innings. They didn't try Redmond or Jenkins in that role in 2014, despite all the bullpen problems, and I wouldn't expect it in 2015 either. They've got to acquire at least one (preferably two) veterans who are capable of 8th and 9th inning roles. (Unless Sanchez becomes the closer, which I wouldn't expect or support, given his starter potential.)

greenfrog - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 11:55 AM EST (#295084) #

Per scout Kiley McDaniel:

12:01
Comment From Graham
Seeing a number of differing opinions on Devon Travis since he was traded to the Jays. Everything from �not a big-leaguer� to �possible future batting champ.� What are your thoughts on Devon Travis?

12:03
Kiley McDaniel: He�s an okay defensive 2B with feel for the barrel and some speed that has a not so dynamic swing but makes the most of it. Could be a starter if it all comes together, more of a fringe regular or good backup for me.

On a more positive note:

12:22
Comment From brappp
I love your reports man. I am a Jays fan and can�t wait until you get to them. Can you give me a tidbit off the top of your head to satiate me until then?

12:22
Kiley McDaniel: Dalton Pompey was better in the AFL than I was told by scouts that saw him in the regular season

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-fangraphs-chat-111414/

Mike Green - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 12:23 PM EST (#295085) #

Sure, but then you've got a bullpen with 4 or 5 average pitchers (or rookies) and only 1 or 2 elite pitchers. The Jays need more than Cecil and Loup for high-leverage innings. They didn't try Redmond or Jenkins in that role in 2014, despite all the bullpen problems, and I wouldn't expect it in 2015 either. They've got to acquire at least one (preferably two) veterans who are capable of 8th and 9th inning roles. (Unless Sanchez becomes the closer, which I wouldn't expect or support, given his starter potential.)

As you can see upthread, I agree with all of this except the part about Sanchez. Sanchez' starter potential in 2015 is very, very questionable to me. I am a lot more confident in his ability to deliver 70-80 great high leverage innings in 2015 than 160 decent starter innings because of the stuff that he used here and his performance in the starting role in the minor leagues. I think they are very good in the rotation without him (and would be much helped if they acquired a better defensive catcher). I am perfectly content with counting on Stroman to be the 200 inning go-to guy in 2015 and hoping that Hutchison or Norris takes a step forward.

John Northey - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 12:26 PM EST (#295086) #

2015 could hinge on how well the kids do. We could see 3 kids playing everyday in the field (Travis, Pompey, Pillar) and another in the rotation (Sanchez or Norris or whoever). Fangraphs has Steamer projections for all of them and it comes out to...
fWAR: Travis 0 (102 wRC+ in 1 PA...guess they don't want to project WAR for him), Pillar 1.5 (122 games), Pompey 0.3 (65 games), Sanchez 0.1 (65 IP), Graveman 0 (25 IP), Norris 0.3 (55 IP).
Shift to 150 games or 175 IP...
fWAR: Travis 0, Pillar 1.8, Pompey 0.7, Sanchez 0.3, Graveman 0, Norris 1.0.

Travis is hard to know... Ian Kinsler had a 102 wRC but had a great defensive rating (15.4) to get to 5.4 WAR. Dee Gordon had blah defense (-1.3) to go with a 101 wRC to get 3.1 WAR. If we get 3.1 WAR out of Travis next year I think the Jays would be very happy. Pompey is a hard projection due to his rapid rise, same with Norris & Graveman. Sanchez is complicated due to his minor league wildness and ML control - did he learn something in the majors or will he revert? The variability here is massive - we could get 12 WAR out of these guys or near 0. I cannot imagine the Jays will leave 2 OF slots open for Pillar & Pompey though - I'm certain they'll split CF in some way/shape/form (one in AAA, platoon, mix and match). Sanchez/Graveman/Norris will see one in the rotation and one in the pen at most I suspect too, more likely one getting 5-10 starts to prove himself and then shifting through the others if needed.

jerjapan - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 04:23 PM EST (#295087) #

Well, Jonathan Diaz had an OPS of 851 in 59 winter league ABs, so clearly we've got second base solved.

Sarcasm aside, gregory Infante, a 27 year old righty known to touch 100mph, has had a good season including his run in winterball and could be fighting for a spot at the bottom of the pen in spring training. Big RHP Blake McFarland has been talked about round here before, but he looks like a darkhorse candidate as well - 15Ks in 13 IPs without allowing a run is a nice end to his year.

That said, i agree with ChinaFan when he suggests that we will be looking at adding at least one high end reliever to shore up the top of the pen. I could see two personally and am really pulling for Pat Neshek at s years / 5 million per or so. Mike Green's list of big-league pitching should guarantee us some solid 5 / 6 / 7 guys on the depth chart.

SK in NJ - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 04:51 PM EST (#295088) #

Does Drabek have any options left? If not, I would think he has a strong chance of making the team as a reliever. He is still only 26 (turns 27 next month) with four years of control left. I don't think AA is going to give up on him given who he was acquired for and how good his arm potentially is. Counting his AAA and MLB numbers as a reliever in 2014, he put up a 2.89 ERA in 34.1 IP in relief (11 BB, 27 K, 1 HR). It was his first season after his 2nd Tommy John Surgery so maybe there is still some upside there out of the pen.

China fan - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 05:06 PM EST (#295089) #

I think SK and Jerjapan are correct to predict that the Jays will probably discover 1 or 2 unexpectedly good relievers in their own system to help fill the bullpen vacancies -- whether it is Infante or McFarland or Drabek or Stilson or someone else that we have previously underestimated. Basically a new version of Neil Wagner or Todd Redmond to come out of nowhere and be useful at the major-league level. For years, the Jays have been able to find unexpected talent on the fringes of the majors or in the high minors, and turn them into serviceable relievers. But they still need one or two reliable high-leverage relievers to supplement Cecil and Loup. That will require a trade or a significant free-agent signing.

PeterG - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 05:07 PM EST (#295090) #

Drabek is out of options. McFarland is the guy I really like though. I assume he will be added to 40 cuz he's gone if he isn't. He was totally dominant in AFL...... Drabek and Jenkins will have to make team or be dealt....

jerjapan - Saturday, November 15 2014 @ 06:43 PM EST (#295091) #

At the moment, the pen depth chart seems to be 1. Cecil 2. Loup 3. Estrada 4. Redmond 5. Jenkins 6 . Delabar 7. Rassmusen 8. Stilson 9. McFarland 10 Infante 11 Drabeck 12 Korecky 13 Drabeck. 14 Tepera

That's a weak group at the top, but a decent group of guys who could fill out the back end. clearly we need an ace or two to solidify the high leverage situations.

Obviously, a starter like Nolin or Graveman could slot in at 4 or 5 and i could see the Jays going this way with either. sanchez seems likely to have a similar season to last year - starting in AAA, working on the secondary offerings that Mike Green points out make him doubtful for the big league rotation at the start of the season, and making the bigs down the stretch as an impact reliever if we are in the mix for the playoffs.

I had thought that Jenkins was out of options but Gregor Chisholm says he has one left and is predicting another year on the shuttle for Chad - he was certainly valuable in that role last year.

China fan - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 06:24 AM EST (#295092) #

A couple of erstwhile Jays prospects have departed. Kenny Wilson has signed with the Marlins organization, and Justin Jackson has signed with the Braves organization. Jackson, the former 1st-round draft pick as a shortstop, has played almost every position in the lineup in the minors, and recently had converted to pitching without a huge amount of success. He'll be 26 next month,

Mike Green - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 10:14 AM EST (#295093) #

Happ and Estrada are an interesting pair. Career ERAs of 4.22 and 4.23. Similar vulnerability to the home run. Both pretty much equally effective against RHP and LHP. Both are pretty good 2 times through the order (roughly 50-60 pitches) and fade noticeably the 3rd time through. There is a nice low-maintenance tandem opportunity if you wanted to do it. You don't even have to call it a tandem.

John Northey - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 11:35 AM EST (#295094) #

So what is the 25 man roster if the season started today?

CA: Navarro, Thole
1B: Encarnacion
2B: Izturis, Goins (AA seems to have indicated they are the favorites)
3B: Lawrie
SS: Reyes
LF: Mayberry
CF: Pillar or Pompey (one in AAA, other in majors I expect)
RF: Bautista
DH: Smoak
Bench: Dirks, Francisco, Valencia, Tolleson

Note: DH, LF, Bench are crapshoots I think right now. I have 15 guys listed there and obviously at least 2 won't be here in April (or on the DL) as I cannot imagine the pen having fewer than 7 guys. Plus I doubt Mayberry or Smoak will be everyday players here.

Rotation: Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutchison, Happ
Bullpen: Cecil, Loup, Jenkins, Redmond, Estrada, Sanchez, Delabar

The pen is most definitely not set - I'd be surprised if more than 4 of those guys are in the ML pen in April. Also I expect one of the 5 in the rotation to be gone and replaced by Sanchez.

So tons in flux right now. Should be interesting to see what this looks like in a month.

dan gordon - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 03:25 PM EST (#295095) #

I'd say:
C - Navarro
1B - Encarnacion
2B - Izturis
SS - Reyes
3B - Lawrie
LF - Pillar
CF - Pompey
RF - Bautista
DH - Valencia/Dirks platoon
Bench - Thole, Goins, Smoak, Valencia or Dirks

You definitely want Valencia in there vs lefties, against whom he has a career .870 OPS. If Pompey needs a month or two in Buffalo, you could use Pillar in CF, platoon Dirks and Mayberry in LF and use Smoak as the lefty platoon mate for Valencia.

JB21 - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 09:26 PM EST (#295096) #

Rumours have Martin to the Cubs for 4 / 64.

Mike Green - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 09:52 PM EST (#295097) #

I have it pretty much the same as dangordon. The club might prefer to DH Encarnacion and run out a Smoak/Valencia platoon at first base. You could also do something more elaborate with Bautista at 1B and Dirks in left-field against RHP and Valencia at first base and Bautista in RF agains LHP with Pillar moving from RF to LF. Hopefully there is a move or two coming to change the dynamic some. Gibbons is not a manager who you want to have running a club with a complicated lineup arrangement.

McNulty - Sunday, November 16 2014 @ 11:28 PM EST (#295098) #

I don't have any inside information, but count me in as believing in the reports of the Jays chasing Russ Martin, and out on pretty much every other high priced free agent. If the first few weeks of the off-season is any indication, I would guess that Anthopolous has been given assurance he could go 5 years with one free agent (hence all the smoke surrounding VMart and and HanRam) , provided Beeston can sell the payroll increase to Rogers. Martin is the only guy I see fitting that bill.

You can't really sell ownership on your major free agent signing being Melky Cabrera, given his PED suspension and career that has been very difficult to gauge what he will be going forward. At this point, there's evidence of a bidding war bubbling below the surface, and that's a place I feel confident saying Beeston and Anthopolous definitely won't go---at least for Melky.

Martin would be a guy I could see the Jays giving max years and dollars to (provided it's under the 5 year Beeston limit). Rogers and the Jays could market the hell out him because if his birth certificate, and also say they've taken the issues of clubhouse leadership/dissension seriously, since apparently he's got magic pixie dust. Also, shelling out big dollars for Martin would quell some of the backlash Rogers is getting for not anteing up enough cash.

They'll throw all the money and Canadian sentiment at him in the world, and he'll still end up on the Cubs.

christaylor - Monday, November 17 2014 @ 07:38 AM EST (#295099) #

I'm convinced that Martin would be a bad fit for the Jays right now. If Dickey and/or Navarro were moved (The first I would not be happy, the second, meh) then he might be a good fit. He's not worth the dollars or the length.

I don't see it happening, but Hanley would be good if he were willing to play 3B.

Perhaps this would make for a good poll question -- how many here really want to see a catcher with a lot of mileage on him him at 31 and about half his career with an OPS+ of 100 or lower added to this team?

John Northey - Monday, November 17 2014 @ 08:12 AM EST (#295100) #

An excellent point christaylor. I keep alternating on Martin. Part of me gets excited at the idea of a Canadian who can catch & play 3B. Part of me remembers the Dodgers releasing him and how offensively last year was a drastic jump at age 31 which rarely holds. FanGraphs says he was worth over $20 mil each of the last 2 years, and also in 2007/8, $12.4 in 2011 but in his other 4 years worth less than 10. Given he is entering his age 32 season (an age when many players start to decline quickly) and will require a 4+ year commitment is it a good idea to pay out $15+ mil a year to him? Odds are high that the last year or two (or 3) will be 'eat the money' time. If he is the last piece then I could see it, but it seems a big risk. Still, on the other hand, he has some positional flexibility and has the magic 'leader' label thus wouldn't be a burden on the bench (worst case is backup catcher/3B/1B with a 85-90 OPS+ which is worth a few mil a year I'd think).

Hrm. As others have said, skip Navarro and it could make sense, but play him everyday at 3B and it doesn't.

Chuck - Monday, November 17 2014 @ 11:37 AM EST (#295101) #

New third baseman: Brook Jacoby. He peaked a quarter of a century ago. Wonder if there is anything left in the tank?

Gerry - Monday, November 17 2014 @ 12:08 PM EST (#295102) #

Peter Gammons is tweeting that the Jays have signed Russell Martin for "McCann money". McCann money was 5/85.

greenfrog - Monday, November 17 2014 @ 12:11 PM EST (#295103) #

Excellent - this was the one FA move I've been arguing for for the last few months. It might well prove to be too much money, but the 2015 Jays just got a whole lot better.

Hodgie - Monday, November 17 2014 @ 12:18 PM EST (#295106) #

According to the Twitterverse it is 5 years and $82M for Martin. At the very least those worried that Rogers was simply going to eat the payroll flexibility can stop worrying....

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