Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

LCS Time!

Finally, a break from hockey! The American League Championship Series starts up tonight with the Kansas City Royals visiting the Baltimore Orioles. The National League Championship Series begins tomorrow with the San Francisco Giants at the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Royals send "Big Game" James Shields to the mound to oppose the O's Chris Tillman at 8:00 pm Eastern. The NLCS Game 1 match-up has the Cardinals Adam Wainwright dealing against the Giants Madison Bumgarner in another 8:00 pm start tomorrow.

In Blue Jays related news...

Here is the audio link of the Alex Anthopoulos interview from Sportsnet 590 The Fan.
Sportsnet says Dan Johnson is looking to be the next R.A. Dickey.

The Blue Jays can forget about any thoughts of trying to sign J.J. Hardy. The O's have re-upped with their shortstop for another three seasons reportedly worth $40 million.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Friday, October 10 2014 @ 05:22 PM EDT.

LCS Time! | 88 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

wdc - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#294407) #

I am expecting the Giants and the Cardinals will be a great series involving two longstanding opponents. The Cardinals are my team but I suspect that the Giants will win. When it comes to the American League, I will be pulling for Kansas City. For no good reason that I can think of, I just have never liked Baltimore. All that said, a Cardinals and Kansas City world series would be a real treat.

BlueJayWay - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#294408) #

Bored of San Fran/St Louis. Pretty stoked for this KC/Baltimore series.

Gerry - Saturday, October 11 2014 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#294410) #

That was a great game last night. When the Orioles got out of bases loaded, no outs, in the ninth inning it looked like luck was on the Orioles side. Similarly when Schoop gets picked off but the throw hits him in the back it looked like luck was with the O's. But KC delivered in the tenth.

The Orioles couldn't find a pitcher last night, even Andrew Miller wasn't as sharp as usual.

Magpie - Saturday, October 11 2014 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#294415) #

Ned Yost, 6-0 in the post-season.

Let me live that fantasy.

Dewey - Monday, October 13 2014 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#294421) #

The games I�ve seen this postseason have been remarkably good. I have no real rooting interest in any of the teams: it�s just compellingly good baseball between well-matched teams. The games are in doubt right to the end (keeps me up too late).

One downside, however, is the extent to which excessive commentary can interfere with enjoyment of the games. Harold Reynolds should just put a sock in it. He has the Joe Siddall/Jerry Howarth disease, bad. We do not tune in to hear Harold yammer on. And on. The Royals/Orioles announcers are much better in this regard than the Cards/Giants crew.

Gerry - Monday, October 13 2014 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#294424) #

Tweet from Mark Feinsand, New York Daily News: Source: Kevin Long has spoken with the Mets, Blue Jays and Braves about their hitting coach jobs. Red Sox also plan to reach out to him.

Hitting coach job with the Blue Jays?

Original Ryan - Monday, October 13 2014 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#294425) #

Hitting coach job with the Blue Jays?

The team has previously talked about adding a second hitting coach, copying what some other teams have done. I wonder if that's what they're contemplating (assuming the report is accurate).

John Northey - Monday, October 13 2014 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#294426) #

One wonders... This year the team seemed to have an amazing offense early on, but in the end only scored 11 more runs than last year. 2009-2011 they scored more than this year. The Jays were 4th in the AL for scoring in 2014, 8th in 2013 so it was a lower scoring environment (AL r/g in 2013 4.33, 2014 4.18). Hopefully AA sees that and factors that in. Francisco and Tolleson looked like big wins for Seitzer early on (828 & 756 OPS respectively) but they crashed in the 2nd half (561/539 OPS). Rasmus flopping is a negative, but others did well (Cabrera, Bautista, Lind, Encarnacion, Navarro) but tended to be vets. Pompey & Pillar did well, but hard to say how much was minors vs majors coaching and Gose didn't do so well.

I personally think a 'master hitting coach' is good with other coaches assigned to a couple of players each - following the main guys basic techniques but also focused purely on a few hitters thus maximizing impact. Main guy is the one in the dugout during a game, but others in clubhouse for hitters to go back to during game to ask questions or review what went right/wrong last time up. Similar with pitchers and pitching coaches - a main one, then two or three more to help individuals (ideally ones specializing for high 90's types, others for control, others for specialty pitch guys). Coaches are so cheap relatively speaking (lets say $100k a year or go nuts with $250k) that adding 4 or even 8 more wouldn't be much of a hit (that would be less than what the Jays waste on Izturis each year) and could have a big impact.

Heck, if I was a ML player I'd hire my own coach to watch over everything day to day just to maximize my effectiveness.

Gerry - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#294428) #

I was sad to hear of the death of Ralph Platner, a long time program seller at the RC. Ralph would sell programs outside the RC before the game and then you would see him striding up and down the aisles after the game had started trying to sell more. The picture in the Globe and Mail profile from several years ago is not great but Ralph was tall, had a brush cut, and nearly always wore shorts from what I remember. Like the drummer he was part of going to a Jays game.

Paul D - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#294429) #

Rays GM Andrew Friedman was just hired by the Dodgers. This could be good news for the Jays.

Dewey - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#294430) #

Thanks for passing this along, Gerry. I�m sorry to hear it though.
Ralph patrolled my section at the Dome regularly, and was always good
for an entertaining chat (or rant, if needed). He was part of my
experience of Jays� games for years. An eccentric fellow with strong
views about some things. He was his own man, and much too young not to
be here still.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#294431) #

Friedman to the Dodgers. Huge move. I can't imagine the Rays lasting in Tampa for much longer if they start to decline. This might be the first domino to fall for that franchise.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#294432) #

Rays GM Andrew Friedman was just hired by the Dodgers. This could be good news for the Jays.

Quite a change for both Friedman and the Dodgers. He's going to have a lot more money at his disposal, and also might have to deal with some pretty ingrained ways of doing things and some prickly personalities. It is a fascinating story.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#294433) #

Wow. Had to double check to make sure it wasn't just a rumour. Maddon is signed through 2015 but might be a Farrell situation where he can force the situation. The Rays did take pride in building from within and having a top to bottom franchise so it'll be interesting to see if it makes it past the GM who put it in place. As a Jays fan though you have to feel the Jays odds of success just climbed.

Gerry - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#294435) #

Did Friedman jump because he could see trouble coming in Tampa? Friedman, like AA, got good results from some of his earliest moves but recently the moves haven't been as good. The Myers/Odorizzi for Davis and Shields was OK for both sides. The Heath Bell and Ryan Hannigan trade wasn't great. Meanwhile Tampa's farm system is weak.

Some reporter tweeted today along these lines "LA 3 top 100 prospects, Tampa zero. Look how smart Friedman is to move". But Friedman was the guy responsible for Tampa's poor drafts, how smart is he?

There is a big difference between being the GM in a small cohesive front office and being the GM in a big organization with a lot of history. I am not saying Friedman won't be successful but its not going to be easy.

85bluejay - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#294436) #

Friedman to the Dodgers is interesting - as Gerry pointed out, the GM in small pond to big ocean, doesn't always work out - Also, in 2011, the Rays had the chance to restock their franchise with 12 of the top 89 picks - the results so far has been underwhelming & Friedman is escaping before those chickens come home to roost.

JB21 - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#294437) #

The weirdest part is that the Rays and Friedman didn't have a contract.

Maddon says that he "wants to continue to be a Ray".

John Northey - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#294438) #

Well, Tampa does need to non-stop replenish their talent pool. Lets do a quick check to see if that holds...
2012 starters (BR): Molina/Pena/Zobrist/Johnson/Longoria/Jennings/Upton/Joyce/Scott
2014 starters (BR): Molina/Loney/Zobrist/Escobar/Longoria/Joyce/Jennings/Myers/DeJesus
So 5 starters remained the same (two of which changed positions).

To compare lets check the super-rich Yankees...
2012: Martin/Teixeira/Cano/Jeter/A-Rod/Ibanez/Granderson/Swisher/Chavez
2014: McCann/Teixeira/Roberts/Jeter/Solarte/Gardner/Ellsbury/Suzuki/Beltran
So they have just 2 starters still here in 2014 who were there in 2012. Wow.

Jays?
2012: JPA/Lind/Johnson/Escobar/Lawrie/Davis/Rasmus/Bautista/Encarnacion
2014: Navarro/Encarnacion/Kawasaki/Reyes/Francisco/Cabrera/Rasmus/Bautista/Lind (Lawrie 80 innings shy of Francisco at 3B)
A total of 4 who remained the same, although a 5th would've if healthy with Lind/EE switching positions.

Huh. Bit surprised there as I didn't expect that much stability for the Rays vs the Yankees & Jays.

Rotation for the Rays though...
2012: Shields, Price, Moore, Hellickson, Cobb
2014: Archer, Price, Odorizzi, Cobb, Bedard (Moore was hurt or probably would've been there, Hellickson was demoted)
So 2 who remained the same, could've been 3 or 4 though if Moore was healthy and Hellickson wasn't bad. Price gone now.

Jays
2012: Alvarez, Romero, Morrow, Laffey, Drabek
2014: Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison, Happ, Stroman - Romero & Drabek in minors, Morrow on DL but not up to standards of top 5
So a 100% turnover. Wow.

Hrm. Maybe the Rays were just coasting at this point and that could be due to a farm that is weakening. Since the Rays started winning (2008) who have they developed who has 5+ WAR?
2008: Nada (2 guys with under 1 between them)
2009: Nada (2 guys both sub 0)
2010: Nada (4 guys, just two in positive territory but combined under 5 - Kevin Kiermaier & Jesse Hahn)
2011: Nada (none up)
2012: Nada (none up)
2013: Nada (none up)
2014: Nada (none up)
Wow. Now _that_ sucks. 2 guys of note since 2008.

Jays?
2008: 6 guys led by 1.0 for Farquhar
2009 Gomes (8.2), Loup/Paxton/Hutchison/Goins/Jenkins/Marisnick all over 1 plus Webb & Glenn
2010 4 guys (Sanchez 1.5, Dyson, Pompey, Nolin)
2011 3 guys none over 1 WAR (Pillar, Norris, DeSclafani)
2012 Stroman (1.9)
2013 Graveman (0.1)
2014: Nada yet.

Which farm looks better at this point? In theory the Rays should be giving shots to guys a lot easier than the Jays with the low budget but the Jays have had more guys reach and have shown more success although it does suck that the best is in Cleveland...grrr...

John Northey - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#294439) #

Saw elsewhere someone mentioning that odds are the Dodgers will be open to pretty much any move he makes now so this could be a good time to sneak in and take a big contract without needing to take on the money.
Checking the Dodgers...
$20+ mil a year: Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Kemp, Crawford
$10-19: Ethier, Haren ($10 mil player option)

Now, we'd all like Greinke (129 ERA+, entering age 31 season), Kemp (140 OPS+, entering age 30 season), Gonzalez (130 OPS+, entering age 33 season) but I doubt the Dodgers will rush to pay their contracts and trade them.
Crawford was with the Rays at his peak and after a horrid 2 years in Boston (0.6 WAR over 2 years) he has become a decent player again (1.7 and 2.4 WAR in LA). He is owed just over $62 mil over the next 3 years. No one in their right mind would want to pay 1/2 of that for him now, but if the Dodgers ate 1/2 of it then he might be decent as a replacement for Melky.
Ethier is more tempting, a 0 WAR year last year, but 3+ each of the 2 years before and still in CF mostly but has played all over the OF and at 1B (the type of player the Jays like). 3 years at just shy of $18 per left plus a vesting option in 2018 for the same. A 359 OBP lifetime would be nice to have. Given the crowded OF they might be willing to dump him and pay more than 50% of his remaining salary.
Of course we'd all LOVE Puig to come here but the cost, especially with Friedman, would be through the roof.
Haren is a player option and odds are he'll take it and the Jays really don't need another 'meh' starting pitcher

Odds are Friedman will make a splash - the question is will AA be involved or not, and if so then will he be robbed or get a good deal?

SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#294440) #

This does appear to be a Pat Gillick style departure where Friedman knew the window was closed, or closing, and bolted to a better situation. It will be fun to see what he does with more money and more expectations. I can't imagine he'd act the same way. He'd be nuts not to spend money if he has it at his disposal, however, I get the feeling the Dodgers got him in large part because they want to win with a smaller payroll (smaller for them meaning below $200M). With the calibre of prospects they have coming up, that's certainly possible if Friedman can dump some expensive players (Gonzalez, Crawford, Ethier, etc).

Even though Tampa probably had a good pipeline of executives working under Friedman, as we have seen first hand, working under someone doesn't mean they share the same values or are similar in performance (Ricciardi was below Beane and AA was below Ricciardi). Hopefully they are in for a rebuilding phase, because the Jays could use some help in trying to get out of this two decade funk.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#294441) #

Ned Yost, 6-0 in the post-season.
Let me live that fantasy.

You have to be rooting for them to run the table at this point.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#294442) #

October 15 in names. The birthday boys can't field much of a ballclub, but they kinda win the name sweepstakes- two Mules, two Gails, Chick Evans, Con Murphy, Emil Frisk, Austin Knickerbocker, Jim Command (who unfortunately was not a pitcher) and Tommy Toms.

Happy birthday to Chad Mottola.

bpoz - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#294443) #

I believe 3 very strong starting pitchers in your rotation will get you success in winning 90+ games.
TB: Shields, Price & Garza.
Oakland: T Hudson, B Zito & Mark Mulder.
Atlanta: Madux, Glavine & Smolz.

OK, so what I said is obvious.
The Jays used to have something like that in the past.
I know that you also need other pieces.

KC with 89 wins this year are not that good. But their #6,7 & 8 SPs made a total of only 11 starts. So I see a pattern.... Therefore do not trade any of our young SP prospects. We may have a strong base.

MatO - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#294444) #

Sad to hear about Ralph. He was at everything. I remember him at high school football games in the 70's.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#294446) #

Heck, for failure as a followup look at who followed Gillick - Ash here and Ruben Amaro Jr in Philly. Both flops although Amaro had a slower drop - from WS winner with Gillick to WS loser, to NLCS loser, to division loser, to 3rd place, to 4th place, and at last to 5th place (dead last in the NL East). Funny thing is each of the first 3 years the team improved in the regular season while doing worse in the post-season. Ash on the other hand went straight to last place his first season on his own ('95) and would never get higher than 3rd.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#294447) #

Forgot to add in for post-Gillick...
Baltimore: from division title in '97 with Gillick to 35 games out the next year, just within 20 games once over the next 14 years
Seattle: from 4 years straight of 90+ wins (including a 116 win season) to a 63-99 record the first year after he left (2003 was Gillicks last year there) and within 10 games just once since with this year being the first time since Gillick that Seattle scored more than they allowed.

Yeah, I'd say the master of knowing when to go is Pat Gillick.

85bluejay - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#294450) #

Apparently, Jose Fernandez, a well regarded Cuban 2nd has defected - 26 y.o & ML ready - if the Jays had spending money I would be excited.

electric carrot - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#294452) #

Hey, weren't the Royals that crappy team we swept four games from in the early part of the summer?

John Northey - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#294453) #

But the Jays already have Jose Fernandez :)

The one you mention started at 19 in the Cuban league, struck out just 10 times in 314 PA, but has only adequate defense and low power/speed. He doesn't sound like a 'woohoo' but more a 'not bad' guy to get. Probably a 1-3 WAR range as an everyday player from the description. At, say, $5 mil a year not a bad idea, but I wouldn't risk more unless scouts were saying to go nuts on him. Listed as an OBP machine but walks with low power I wouldn't count on making it in the majors.

Gerry - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#294454) #

Anyone pick the Royals at the start of the season?

jerjapan - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#294455) #

Heck no, but it's fun watching them. I keep banging this drum, but anyone care to argue that the Shields - Myers trade isn't a total win for the Royals?

Interesting blog entry on Fangraphs that has the Royals as a very effective bunting team, with the Jays a clear second. I was totally surprised to learn that our sac bunt WPA was 0.7.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/all-that-ned-yost-bunting-has-helped-the-royals/

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 15 2014 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#294456) #

It's human nature to seek winning/losing in anything. It's especially prevalent in baseball. And totally meanless.

The object of a trade is to get something to help your team, both teams. There are different objectives in any trade, each with equal validity.

Did the trade do what it was supposed to do? If so, it's a success. If not, it's not a success...yet.

85bluejay - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#294457) #

Congratulations to the Kansas City Royals - 2 years ago, perennial also-rans Toronto & Kansas City made aggressive and risky trades - the jays moves were widely praised by the media & fans, their GM celebrated and the team made a world series favourite - the Royals moves were harshly criticized, their GM mocked and many began the countdown to his tenure in K.C - well, look whose smiling now! - it's another cautionary tale about instant analysis (while fun) and declaring winners & losers so quickly.

SK in NJ - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#294458) #

The Shields deal was a success for KC even if they lose in the WS. The fact that they made it there after near 30 year playoff drought is enough to call that a win, especially if the alternative was hoping prospects pan out while on the outside looking in.

The Dickey and Miami deals will be considered a success too if the Jays make the playoffs next season. It does make 2014 all the more frustrating though. All it took was 88 wins to make the one game WC!

bpoz - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#294459) #

KC won in extra innings by 1 run against Oakland. They won 2 extra inning games against LAA. Against Baltimore 1 extra inning win and 2 1 run wins.
That is a lot of good luck. Which of course does count.

John Northey - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#294460) #

Funny how close it is to a repeat of the 1985 World Series - KC vs St Louis. San Francisco will probably be there instead with the 3-1 lead but it is amazing that we almost had a repeat as the odds are very low of getting that to happen.

Chuck - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#294461) #

That is a lot of good luck.

Flipping heads 8 straight times, rather than 4 times out of 8, is indeed good luck. But when you use a tournament to declare a champion, this is the type of thing you can get.

What's predictable, if not exactly interesting, is how those in the anti-sabermetric camp are using the Royals' recent success as a bludgeon (see, bunting really is effective; Ned Yost runs a happy clubhouse and that can't be underestimated; who's laughing at Dayton Moore's Process now?; etc.).

Lost in all this is what saberist types have long argued: defense does matter. A lot. Yes, no one can quite seem to quantify it in a way that pleases everyone. And yes, there is more year-to-year variability in a given player's defensive WAR than feels reasonable. But it cannot be refuted that the defensive skills of many of the Royals' players are significantly valuable and undervalued from a financial perspective. How more saberist can one get?

And should the Royals flip heads 4 more times, will there be a league-wide lesson learned? Will defense, no longer the largely ignored player attribute of yesteryear, be more appropriately compensated in the marketplace? Well, let's wait and see what kind of contracts Nelson Cruz, Melky Cabrera, and Victor Martinez, albeit all held back by presumably forthcoming QOs, receive.

I think cheques still dig the long ball.

Dewey - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#294462) #

I turned off the game last night after the sixth inning. Not because it wasn�t a good game, but because of the incessant �commercial breaks�. Someone with much more patience than me might actually compare the broadcast-minutes devoted to on-field action and those consumed by commercials. When these extended �breaks� occur not just between half-innings, but at every pitching change, the effect is seriously debilitating. When Machi came in in the 6th and pitched to one batter (he threw one pitch), we had just waited the obligatory three minutes for him to do so. Then Lopez comes in to pitch to one batter, but before we can see him do so we must endure another three minutes of commercials. The inning is at last over, and we get to view still another commercial break. Nine minutes of commercials to watch seven pitches thrown! There were 13 pitchers used last night, including 5 mid-inning substitutions. There must have been at least 45 minutes of commercials broadcast.

MLB should deal with this. The story of the goose that laid the golden egg comes to mind.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#294464) #

I've long been in favour of some kind of limit on mid-inning pitching changes. They really are a drag. Then of course in the playoffs the commercial breaks are all a minute longer than in the regular season.

jerjapan - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#294465) #

Chuck, what's valuable about a team like the Royals winning is that it forces even the sabremetric community to re-examine beliefs. Bunting, for example, is not ALWAYS a bad strategy, as the Fangraphs article I references points out - the Royals had a WPA of 1.0 for bunts this year (the Jays were second at 0.7). This is a highly saberist result. Bunt attempts will sometimes end up in a baserunner due to pressure placed on the defence, so the speed / skill of the bunter. The league average according to baseball reference in 2014 was a -18.7 WPA for sac bunts, but with pitchers removed, it's actually a 0.2, or essentially, a neutral . I found this tremendously surprising.

The Shields trade was another example of modern principals perhaps going to far - there is value for a longshot contender like the Jays or Royals to roll the dice and trade MORE future value for present value at a critical moment in a teams competitive window. Of course, of all the playoff acquisitions made this year, most seemed to accomplish little at the price of future value, but the potential was there.

Total consensus is almost never good for a community - so the near unanimity around bunting or trading prospects for vets should be scrutinized more closely. And of course, you are exactly right about defense.

BTW - I plan on quoting "cheques dig the long ball". nice one.

bpoz - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#294466) #

Has the long ball been a factor in this years playoffs? It probably has.
The pens also seem to be of great value in this years playoffs.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#294467) #

All right, I will try again. Hopefully firefox and Battersbox will get along this time. We can do our part to elevate defenders. Devon White, great ballplayer. Say it loud and say it proud. I'd love to see him back in TO working with Pompey, Gose and Pillar. He does like TO.

And as for the bullpen, it's interesting. Who was more valuable to the Royals this year- James Shields or Wade Davis? It is pretty close, but I would say Davis. It might something for the Jays to consider when they ponder Sanchez' role for 2015.

John Northey - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#294468) #

Enjoyed that Whyte article. Interesting that all these years his name was spelled wrong and he finally fixed it legally a couple years after retiring. I am surprised he isn't working for the Jays in some capacity with his baserunning and defense.

Hodgie - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#294469) #

"The league average according to baseball reference in 2014 was a -18.7 WPA for sac bunts, but with pitchers removed, it's actually a 0.2, or essentially, a neutral ."

Maybe I am missing something, but hailing the average non-pitcher neutral WPA on sacrifice bunts as something commendable seems odd considering the premise of the sacrifice bunt is to increase the odds of scoring? It also ignores the other possibilities sans bunting as MGL points out in the comments. A better title for the article would have been "All That Ned Yost Bunting Hasn't Really Hurt The Royals, Maybe".

As for the Shields trade, those supporting a clear win for the Royals seem to be placing a great deal of emphasis on results over process. The Royals were extremely fortunate to even make the playoffs this season (after missing it last season) much less advance to the World Series. Big Game James' playoff contributions so far have amounted to a 5.63 ERA despite playing in front of probably the best defense in MLB and while Wade Davis has been otherworldly lets not pretend the Royals saw the second coming of Rivera at the time of the trade seeing as they wasted 125 innings on Davis as a starter in 2013. Moore and Yost have basically gotten lucky on the river card with their gamble. In the end a great result for Kansas City fans but not a great strategy for sustained success in my estimation.

dan gordon - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#294470) #

So far this offseason, the Giants are 7-2 despite having hit only 2 home runs. On the other hand, their bullpen has been fantastic. Romo, Casilla, Petit, Lopez and Affeldt have combined to pitch 27 2/3 innings, and have allowed a total of 1 run on 11 hits. Strickland and Machi have fared poorly in 6 2/3 innings, but, the others have been unbelievable, and are a main reason why the Giants are 7-2. They're even slightly outpitching the Royals famed trio of Holland, Davis and Herrera, who have surrendered 3 runs and 14 hits in 25 2/3 innings.

John Northey - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#294471) #

There is an old rule - any trade leading to a WS is a good trade as it is so hard to get there. Especially if it is a WS win.

The Jays got 53 regular season innings plus 22 1/3 playoff innings from David Cone in exchange for virtually all of Jeff Kent's near HOF career. No Jay fan would complain.
The Jays got 203 'meh' PA from Rickey Henderson in 1993 plus 57 poor PA in the playoffs (8 hits, 9 walks, 4 doubles, 3-2 SB-CS, 298 OBP) but again wouldn't say no to that trade either.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#294472) #

Hodgie, that's a bit overstated. Wade Davis has always been a decent to good pitcher. He was good in the Rays bullpen in 2012, and wasn't as bad as the 5.32 ERA in the rotation last year makes out. Davis was a decent bet to be a more valuable pitcher than Odorizzi. And as for Shields/Myers, the Royals bet on Shields being the same pitcher for them as he was for Tampa. That was a pretty good bet and one that has come true. Wil Myers currently has BBRef comps that range from Marc Newfield (Gary Geiger, Carmelo Martinez) to Andy van Slyke (Joe Adcock, Jermaine Dye) with 1/2 the careers being good ones and 1/2 very mediocre. They would have been maybe a little better when the trade was made, but Newfield was a really, really hot prospect.

Personally, I'd take Tampa's end of the deal. It is true that it worked out better this year for KC than any reasonable expectation due to Myers' injury and Davis' development.

Hodgie - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#294473) #

I am not sure what you believe I am overstating Mike. The Royals traded for Davis with the intention of having him start. Over his MLB career Davis is a true talent 4.50 ERA pitcher despite playing in front of extremely strong defensive teams his entire career. His good 2012 accounted for a typical 1+ WAR for a good reliever. Any assertion that Kansas did not get extremely lucky with his performance this season would be a stretch.

Shields has contributed almost exactly what anyone would have expected post-trade, but an argument could be made that he was not even their best SP this season (Ventura) and was only slightly better than another pitcher they picked up off the street (Vargas). The narrative will be the trade was the right thing to do as Shields has led them to the promised land when in reality it took an enormous amount of good fortune beyond their reasonable expectations of the trade to qualify for the postseason.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#294474) #

Sure, that is an irritating narrative. Personally, I'd focus more on getting a very valuable season out of Jarrod Dyson, a 50th round pick, and an even better season out of Lorenzo Cain, a 17th round pick. It is kind of funny- with all the hoopla concerning their minor league system 6 or 7 years ago (Gordon, Butler, Moustakas and others), it is an odd combination of things which takes them to a World Series.

Hodgie - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#294475) #

"There is an old rule - any trade leading to a WS is a good trade as it is so hard to get there. Especially if it is a WS win."

John, if that trade is realistically the last piece in the puzzle then I agree wholeheartedly. If the trade is made by a GM trying to save his job with hopes of maybe sneaking into the playoffs with luck I can't disagree more.I understand the "ends justify the means" argument, I just don't agree with it.

Magpie - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#294476) #

I love the trade, for everybody. Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City actually received exactly what they were hoping to receive from the trade. You can't ask for more than that.

There aren't all that many guys like James Shields, who you can just pencil in for 200 quality innings year after year. His splits this year tell an interesting story. He has clearly figured out that in Kaufman Field, with that defense behind him, he can just challenge everybody and the defenders will track it down. At home, he fanned just 6.5 per 9, and walked just 1.49; opposing batters hit .272 against him, but with just 7 HRs. He's a different guy on the road. AL hitters batted just .243, but with 16 HRs; he struck out 7.5 per 9 while walking 1.95 per 9.

Smart guy.

John Northey - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#294477) #

That is a good point Hodgie. The Cone & Henderson deals were clearly doing an upgrade of a weakness in both cases mid-season in an effort to get that WS ring (or two). The Royals deal looked like 'you gotta be kidding me' at the time but worked out thus lands more in the 'luck' category than the 'planned success' area. However, for fans of KC I think they'll say 'screw it' after nearly 30 years of frustration.

Here in Jays land we got that exciting set of deals at the same time but have been seeing our non-playoff window just grow and grow. Without those deals the club would be better off right now as we'd have the prospects and odds are Reyes & Buehrle & Dickey & Happ would've cost less now than then (Johnson obviously a non-factor at this point). Of course we'd also have had a couple of really bad years I'd bet too (rather not think about the rotation in 2013/14 without Buehrle, Dickey, & Happ) and might not see the playoffs as realistic now but being a few years away still.

Magpie - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#294478) #

all the hoopla concerning their minor league system 6 or 7 years ago (Gordon, Butler, Moustakas and others)

The other being Hosmer, who's been pretty up and down as a major leaguer. Moustakis hasn't been what they hoped he would be. Gordon got there eventually, but he spent his first four seasons as a disappointment, to the extent that they actually sent him back to the minors for half the 2010 season. Billy Butler's the only one who stepped into a major league lineup without much of a hitch.

It may be that having to play half your games in Kaufman Stadium, where no one has ever hit 40 home runs, might not be the best thing in the world if you're trying to develop young hitters. Which would be another reason to think that the known goodness and reliability of James Shields might be more valuable to your particular team and situation than the unquestioned potential of a slugging young outfielder.

Alex Obal - Thursday, October 16 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#294479) #

A certain type of young hitter, anyway. It's not a pitchers' park - it's just a wretched place if you're a moonball hitter. In a parallel universe Robinson Cano's hit .350 a few times for the Royals. Billy Butler has done pretty well for himself as well.

Eephus - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#294480) #

Bobby Thomson. Travis Ishikawa.

The answer to a trivia question another sixty years from now.

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#294481) #

So far this offseason, the Giants are 7-2 despite having hit only 2 home runs

...and somehow went to 8-2 despite hitting 3 home runs last night. Nothing like a well-place word or two, dan.

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#294482) #

Here's a David Laurilia interview with Jim Hickey.

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#294483) #

I think cheques still dig the long ball.

Here is Dave Cameron's chart on the cost of a win last off-season. If one looks at the players who derive most of their value from defensive ability (Omar Infante, Mark Ellis, Juan Uribe, Brendan Ryan and Jose Molina), the cost of a defensive win (independent of position) appears to be somewhat less than the cost of an offensive win. Mind you, only Uribe was any good last year so maybe the people who signed the cheques are better at projecting performance than Steamer and ZIPS combined...

vw_fan17 - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#294484) #

I haven't followed the playoffs that closely (I check who won, watch some highlights), but a couple of points:
-I feel the pain of those commercials - I do watch at times next door with my in-laws who are huge Giants fans. That's why I appreciate being able to watch most Jays games the next morning via mlb tv and just "click" to skip to the next half or full inning (when I only have a limited time, I often just watch the Jays hit)

-someone mentioned Tim Hudson in one of the highlights, so I looked him up for fun and found this:
2004, 188.2 IP, 74 ER, ERA 3.53
2005, 192.0 IP, 75 ER, ERA 3.52
2014, 189.1 IP, 75 ER, ERA 3.57

ERA+ for those years?
2004: 129
2005: 121
2014: 98

Wow!

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#294485) #

The league-wide environment is, of course, much more favourable to pitchers. AT&T park played as quite a pitcher's park this year, also. As a result, it looks like the Giants were a much, much better offensive team than the raw slash lines would suggest and a poorer pitching team.

They are particularly vulnerable to LHHs. The Royals are decently placed to take advantage of that, given their lineup and bench. The Giants will be hoping for a lot of rain so Bumgarner can make 3 starts.

hypobole - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#294486) #

Trade deadline deals are always great when the acquired player helps his team to a WS ring, but there are no guarantees and few do.

There is also the opposite end of the spectrum. The Larry Anderson/Jeff Bagwell deal is probably the most famous cautionary tale, but at least the 22 innings of 1.2 bWAR Anderson gave the Red Sox did help them into the postseason, although they were swept 4-0 by the A's.

Then there are the true disaster deals. In 2010 the 1st place Padres needed outfield help and landed Ryan Ludwick as part of a 3 team trade, sending out a couple of minor league pitchers. The Padres faltered, lost 1st place to the Giants and even missed out on the wild card by a game to the Braves. Ludwick ended up as part of the problem, giving the Padres 59 games of negative WAR (as well as a half season of negative WAR the following year before he was sold to the Pirates).

And the 2 minor leaguers the Padres shipped out for Ludwick? Well you can find one of them easily by looking at the top of the AL pitchers WAR leaderboard - yup, Corey Kluber.

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#294487) #

It's a mixed bag. A good percentage of contending teams do make deadline deals. Some help, some hurt and some don't make any apparent difference. The last 3 World Series winners did make a deadline deal that probably helped (Peavy in 2013, Scutaro in 2012 and Jackson/Rzepczynski/Dotel in 2011).

Gerry - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#294488) #

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#294489) #

Shi Davidi is reporting that all the Jays coaches are coming back, other than bullpen coach Bob Stanley. Stanley was originally slated to be the Buffalo pitching coach but was promoted when Pat Hentgen stepped down for personal reasons. AA has been very critical of the bullpen's work this season, I guess Stanley was the fall guy.

Davidi usually has it right. I guess Rogers is content with Anthopoulos, and Anthopoulos is content with Gibbons and Walker. I wonder whether fans as a whole will have the same reaction when the season starts. It's a good time for disappointed fans to let their wallets do the talking.

mathesond - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#294490) #

Thanks to BBTF, I came across this great excerpt from Al Oliver's book, detailing his time with the '85 Jays and the end of his career

dan gordon - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#294491) #

"...and somehow went to 8-2 despite hitting 3 home runs last night"

Yah, it's about time the power started to show up. Without the home run, the Giants struggle to score. They were getting a lot of lucky runs on wild pitches, errors and the like. Hopefully, the power continues in the WS. Again, they are facing a team without a lot of lefty pitching, which will help, as the Giants are regularly employing 5 lefties in the batting order, and Sandoval, a switch hitter, has been awful vs. lefties this year. Their W/L record was only .500 vs lefty starters this year. I expect they'll get Morse in there as the DH, which will give them a bit more thump in the order as well.

Magpie - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#294492) #

Only nine managers have presided over three WS winners, and every one of them is in the HoF (McCarthy, Stengel, Mack, Alston, Torre, Anderson, Huggins, LaRussa, McGraw), so I'm assuming Bruce Bochy will pretty much punch his invite to Cooperstown if the Giants win this one.

Mike Green - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#294493) #

I guess it's the Lou Brock theory. I am not sure whether it will play out that way if Bochy wins a 3rd World Series and does nothing else significant in his managerial career. He might very well end up with a career W/L under .500...

jerjapan - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#294494) #

If the trade is made by a GM trying to save his job with hopes of maybe sneaking into the playoffs with luck I can't disagree more.

Publicly the Royals and moore have been claiming they were aiming for the playoffs for a while now- hard to say that they were planning to 'sneak in' or if they felt they were legit.

And how can you claim to know that the shield's trade was motivate by Moore trying to save his job? I see this meme repeated A LOT when commentators dislike a 'win now' style trade, but I've gotta think that a lot of guys who have climbed the managerial mountain in baseball can afford to do what they believe is right without having to 'save' their jobs. The underlying assumption of a thesis like this just seems to be that management is generally stupid, which seems questionable.

And heck, the recently debated round these parts Gord Ash still has a big league job ...

BTW Hodgie, the point I was making about bunting is not that it is an inherently good strategy, but rather that it is not an inherently bad one - and it clearly WAS a positive for the Royals and Jays this year, among others.

John Northey - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#294495) #

Well, Ash was said to be good in the front office - he just wasn't the right guy for the GM job - the old 'Peter Principle' at full power. Some people are great at behind the scenes stuff but lousy at stuff most of us think shouldn't be that hard (ie: not doing the disaster trades he did).

James W - Friday, October 17 2014 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#294496) #

Mike, Jonah Keri wrote a good column last week about Bochy. He writes that Bochy may be one of the best managers in baseball history.

Bochy column

dan gordon - Saturday, October 18 2014 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#294497) #

That's a very good, detailed article about Bochy. I've certainly noticed when I watch Giants' games that he seems to do a lot of intelligent things, and very few things that seem wrong. I know I've never seen a Blue Jays' manager that I regarded as highly as Bochy for his in-game strategy. He also seems to be able to identify who deserves to play and who doesn't better than most other managers, and seems able to navigate through difficulties extremely well. This year, for instance, the Giants have dealt with significant injuries to Cain, Scutaro, Pagan, Belt and Morse, and Bochy wasn't hesitant to drop Lincecum from the rotation, switch closers and work through a revolving door at 2B before deciding on the rookie Panik, and resurrecting Ishikawa and putting him into a new position just before the start of the playoffs.

christaylor - Saturday, October 18 2014 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#294498) #

Nice article on the value of being mediocre by Dave Cameron. I agree with much of what he says but I feel the Jays have been doing exactly this for about a decade -- putting a good team out there and hoping for the best. Perhaps things will break the Jays way in the near-term, but I don't get the feeling that the Jays would get the long term bump Cameron predicts for the Royals/Pitt/Seattle unless they are, year in, year out a contender. In Toronto, I suspect that the Jays need to be seen as trendy winner to build the fan base meaningfully... not sure that a single playoff run does that. Rogers can run out a slew of good teams and make a profit and get a little more profit if the Jays sneak in one year.

Mike Green - Saturday, October 18 2014 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#294499) #

Different questions, James W. It's the Hall of Fame vs the Hall of Merit. If one is considering whether Bochy ought to go in the Hall of Fame, it's a really nebulous thing. How much does a manager influence the outcome of games? Is it 2 games a season between the worst and the best? 10 games? I don't know and I doubt that there is any useful information about that. If you give Bochy all the credit for overperformance of Pythagorean (which is a dubious proposition in itself), that would amount to 1 win per season.

There is no question that Bochy is a good manager. I am pretty sure that he is better than Sparky Anderson (notwithstanding the superior record of Sparky's teams). Do I think that he is as good as Joe McCarthy or Earl Weaver or Whitey Herzog? Probably not.

Hodgie - Saturday, October 18 2014 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#294500) #

Jerjapan, who isn't publicly aimng for the playoffs? When the trade was made the Royals had just finished 16 games behind the Tigers in the division and 21 games out of the wild card. Moore's premise for contending was formed lately on the belief his vaunted prospects were about to explode into MLB stars. With the exception of Gordon that hasn't happened and as already pointed out while he achieved his goal it had little to do with his actual plan but rather some exceptional contributions from highly unlikely sources and a tremendous amount of good fortune.

As for Moore trying to save his job it doesn't take much to infer that as a likely motivating factor. GM overseeing a team with no success during his tenure or history of even contending with two years left on his contract trades top prospects for starting pitcher with coincidentally two years left on his contract and a failed starter. Again, Moore went all in on a leap of faith and luckily for him and Royals fans it magically worked if not in the way he imagined it would.

Lastly, the fact that the sacrifice bunt on average produced a neutral outcome is absolutely a negative. The strategy is predicated on giving up outs to increase the odds of scoring and by extension winning and on average that isn't the case. Sullivan's article showed that really for all but two teams in MLB there was little value gained in the bunt.

dalimon5 - Saturday, October 18 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#294501) #

Hodgie,

What's your point? A GM made it to the world series by making moves that you think were a leap of faith and motivated only to get his team into the playoffs in oder to save his job. Okay...that's what a GM running a baseball team should be doing if they aren't making the playoffs...

then you assert that luckily for Dayton Moore it worked out because of exceptional contributions from highly unlikely sources and a tremendous amount of good fortune. What is the point of your argument? Look at the world series teams over the years and ask yourself how many made it based on a plan that a) was not motivated by a GM trying to improve or maintain his job security and b) didn't rely on luck/good fortune.

Throughout this thread you come off as someone basically trying to discredit what Dayton Moore has 'achieved', only problem is there's not many people who believe a GM has that much control over a team's destiny. Did Sabean not make "leaps of faith" and rely on luck to make it to the world series? What do you think motivated him to trade away his prospects over the years such as Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran?

bpoz - Sunday, October 19 2014 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#294503) #

The last 4 years have been very good for J Shields. ERA's of 3.5 or less and 8 years of 200+ IP. So this looked like a deal worth making. Just like Philly trading for Halladay. You can always trade him again, like Cliff Lee, if not injured like Halladay.

So now a 88/89 win team is going to win the WS. If you are going to call these 2 teams bottom feeders and 96-98 win teams top feeders, then over the last 10 years who has the most WS rings. I mean top, bottom & middle, no matter where the win total starts and ends.

John Northey - Sunday, October 19 2014 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#294505) #

No question the goal for a club should be to build a 90 win calibre team and hope for the best in the playoffs. The cost of adding another 5-10 wins is skyhigh but the gains are minimal in the big picture.

The problem for the Jays is they haven't had a 90 win club since 93, and few were 90+ win calibre by most measures. Pythag has a few there - a full list...
100+ wins: 1985 (99.6 rounds to 100), made playoffs
95+: 1987 (99.468 rounds to 99, missed playoffs)
90-94: 2008 (93...yes, their pythag was better than the WS teams and the 91 & 89 playoff teams), 1990 (92 wins, no playoffs), 1992 (91 & a WS), 1993 (91 & a WS), 1989 (89.6 & playoffs)
85-89 (good enough to have a shot): 1988, 1986, 2005, 1991 (88 win & playoffs), 1983, 2003, 2007, 1984, 2006, 1998, 2014 (84.9 so rounds to 85)
...
sub 60: 1977,1979 and the worse was 1981 at 56 (lucky for them 1/3rd of the season was lost).

So, quite interesting to see the 3rd best phyth record (based on runs for/against) was 2008 and that 3 of the top 4 years were non-playoff ones. Note how Gaston was involved with every club that was a 90+ via pythag either as a hitting coach (85/87) or as the manager (08/90/92/93/89). In 2008 I always wondered if they might have made it with him from the start. Of course, everything fell apart in 2009 so maybe not.

McNulty - Monday, October 20 2014 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#294506) #

With no research done, and with nothing from which to base on; I wonder if the Braves would trade Justin Upton straight up for Mark Buerhle?

OK I admit I'm basing it on the fact the Braves need pitching and the Jays need to save a little cash and be able to replace Melky, who will likely price himself out of the Jays budget.

McNulty - Monday, October 20 2014 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#294507) #

I also wonder if the Jays declined Lind, they could get Kendry Morales on a cheap one year deal to put up similar numbers without drastic platoon splits. In a pich they could decline Happ and use Graveman or Nolin As the #5.

Also: Trade prospects for Brandon Phillips.

Sign Rafael Soriano as a reliever to back up Cecil as the closer and perhaps over pay for a couple years of J.P. Howell.

McNulty - Monday, October 20 2014 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#294508) #

Would be fine with Thole back as backup C provided Dickey continues to improve.

All this talk about the GM and intangibleness really boils down to this: AA go and get the team a real second baseman and some bullpen reinforcements. The rest is up to luck and random chance, ostensibly.

bpoz - Monday, October 20 2014 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#294515) #

Sounds good McNulty. J Upton is a well regarded player. However the high strike out number for him and his brother probably make them look not as good. I do not know how to dis value bad strike out numbers. I really value HRs & RBIs, which is why JPA always appealed to me.
While looking at Atlanta's hitting stats, I saw that Tyler Pastorniky is there and not being used much. He has to be cheap to acquire, but his contribution is probably hard to value.
I am not sure but I think Bauxites were saying that the 2008 pitching staff was quite good. The rotation certainly was good Halladay, Burnett, Litsch & Marcum all did well. McGowan made 19 starts, then lost to TJ too.

For the 2009 rotation we lost Burnett to NYY, Litsch made only 2 starts and Marcum was recovering from late 2008 TJ. The rotation relied on 2 journeymen in B Tallet & S Richmond to make 25 & 24 starts.

I give credit to our Farm for replenishing the 2010 rotation. Romero, rookie in 2009, Marcum, Cecil and the newly acquired Morrow.
Injuries have been killing us.

My fingers are crossed that injuries do not destroy our current crop of home grown SPs.

christaylor - Tuesday, October 21 2014 @ 05:53 AM EDT (#294521) #

Buehrle for Upton -- nah, I think Buehrle for A-Rod is a little more likely.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 21 2014 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#294525) #

Heh... That does bring up an interesting though... would it be possible to get A-Rod and if so would you want him here at 3B while Lawrie goes to 2B? His lowest OPS+ is 111 (since his age 20 season), but his last 3 seasons (cover 4 ML seasons) his OPS+ has been in the 110's while playing 99/122/44 games. Obviously the Yankees would have to pay the vast majority of his $61 mil owing over the next 3 years plus marketing bonus for reaching 660 HR (he is just 6 away). The Steamer projection (listed at FanGraphs) has him at 235/313/372 which wouldn't be worth anything really. But if he came out gangbusters to prove everyone wrong (which is possible) then things could be a lot different.

I see A-Rod as a massive lottery guy - he could have a 130+ OPS+ in 2015 to show he isn't washed up or he could collapse totally. The Yankees are probably stuck with him but if they wanted to clear him out who would take the risk? How much cash would a team risk on him? How much of a circus would it create and would that circus be a benefit (more tickets/tv) or a liability (distraction leading to others not doing as well).

If the Yankees covered, say, $59 mil of the $61 owed I'd probably go for it. But I wouldn't want to risk more than $5 mil total on him so it wouldn't hurt too much to release him if he collapses or makes too much of a mess. I'd also check with Bautista, Encarnacion, and a few other players to know if they want him or not first (we can assume, but what the media says and what players really thing can be 100% opposites).

christaylor - Wednesday, October 22 2014 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#294529) #

Heh. Yeah -- not for Buehrle, of course, but A-Rod, the player, could be a good fit. The Yankees eating $59 mil of the $61 is probably too much to ask for a division rival (especially if the Jays didn't send prospects) but that relationship seems broken from both sides. Considering mlbtraderumors projected 5y/$66 for Melky, even picking up as much as 3y/$30 on A-Rod could be an interesting gamble, if the Jays miss out on Melky and he'd be willing/able to shift between 3B/LF/DH and if the rest of the clubhouse was OK with him (a lot of ifs). Clearing out Lind and Happ would leave some payroll room and A-Rod might benefit from getting out of the NY spotlight and being near a favorite night-spot. That projection seems low if he's healthy and ready. I'll be happy if AA takes risks like this to fill a the two-three position players and pitching help the Jays need. Last season and at the deadline standing pat was not a terrible decision, but the Jays need depth and some risk in 2015 to in it.

bpoz - Wednesday, October 22 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#294530) #

To me it is fairly obvious that if 2 or 3 of our good hitters, I think we had 6 in 2014, are not hitting, then the offense is much too weak for even good pitching to produce a decent month win wise.

OK, saying "obvious" is refutable. The 6 IMO are Bautista, EE, Reyes, Melky and maybe Navarro & Lind. If they are all back for 2015, Bautista, EE, Reyes & Melky are capable of the the same production as 2014, because they have repeated this production several times. Navarro's great year may not be repeatable, in results and # ABs, 481 ABs is a career high. Lind however can more than make up for the shortfall if his back holds out. If Lawrie can get 500-600 ABs rather than 259 ABs in 2014, it should be a big plus.
Inconsistent very hot or very cold from Rasmus and J Fransisco makes a big difference positive & negative.

I am quite sure Bautista, EE & Lawrie will be back in 2015. The deck can be shuffled with the other players and a combo of Happ, Dickey and Buehrle. OR stand Pat. Only Melky's destination is to be decided. Other than the expected great/good contribution of Janssen, being lost most likely, this could be a winning hand.

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