Looking at these matchups, especially Kershaw-Wainwright, almost makes me wish I was single again and had full control of the TV. Maybe I can DVR it and watch the game at 1 am...or more likely, tomorrow afternoon, if I can remain ignorant of the score and how it got to be that way

This year he wasn't, and the Tigers have a bullpen that... well, they would kill to have Toronto's bullpen

Nailed it.

In the positive news dept., a Globe and Mail article today reports Beeston saying that the Jays' payroll will go up in 2015.

I'm also happy that Alford has committed to playing baseball full-time. It's nice to have another good positional prospect in the system (albeit one who has a lot of catching up to do).

Of note on the Jays side - Kawasaki had a clause in his contract that made him a free agent now thus why he was removed from the 40 man roster.  Dan Johnson and George Kottaras also are free agents now.  Currently 38 slots full on the 40 man, with Izturis, Lawrie, and Jenkins needing to be added.  I think 2010 or 2009 prospects need to be added this year (not 100% sure) so 2010 would include Dickie Joe Thon, 2009 Ryan Schimpf.  Neither year has much left in the minors.

Interesting to note...
2009: Chad Jenkins, James Paxton, Jake Marisnick, Ryan Goins, Aaron Loup, Yan Gomes (8.2 WAR is #1 of the group), Drew Hutchison (15th round), Daniel Webb, and Brad Glenn have made the majors.  That's a lot of guys. 3 have cracked 2 WAR (Gomes, Loup, Paxton) while 4 more are over 1 (Hutchison, Goins, Jenkins, Marisnick).  Webb is at 0.8 while Glenn is -0.4.  Paxton and Marisnick were compensation for losing AJ Burnett.
2010: Aaron Sanchez, Sam Dyson, Dalton Pompey and Sean Nolin have reached. Sanchez the only one over 0.1 WAR at 1.5.  Sanchez was compensation for Marco Scutaro, Syndergaard was compensation for Paxton, Wojciechowski for Rod Barajas, plus 3 other comp picks.
2011: Kevin Pillar, Daniel Norris, and Anthony DeSclafani have reached, none done much yet.
2012: Marcus Stroman 1.9 WAR
2013: Kendall Graveman 0.1 WAR
2014: none yet

Going back a bit...
2008: Danny Farquhar  leads the group of 6. Nuff said.
2007: Brett Cecil (5.5), Marc Rzepczynski (3.2), J.P. Arencibia (2) are the positives. 4 more negatives.
2006: Travis Snider (3.8) and 4 minor majors leaguers
2005: Ricky Romero  (9,7) and 2 guys
2004: Adam Lind (8.6), Casey Janssen (7,7), Jesse Litsch (3.9),  and 4 cup of coffee guys (well, David Purcey played a lot but 0.1 WAR for those efforts)

Interesting to see that since Aaron Hill we haven't see a 10 WAR guy. Romero might have been over 10 briefly.  JPR's drafts produced a bit but not a lot until his last one.  A shame Paxton wasn't signed but if he was we might have lost him or Sanchez to get Dickey.

There are a lot of very good starting pitchers in this year's post-season. I think anybody would say that Kershaw, Wainwright, Verlander, Strasburg, Scherzer, Lester and Shields are among the absolute best there is. So far, in 7 starts, these aces have pitched 40 2/3 innings, surrendered 53 hits, 8 walks and 33 earned runs, for an ERA of 7.30. Of course if they had been pitching shutouts, all the talking heads would be telling us how "good pitching beats good hitting". Bumgarner is one ace who did come up with a great game, but even including his shutout, the ace's ERA is about 6.00.

The 2014 Detroit Tigers Died on Friday, October 3rd of self-inflicted wounds - As the body was removed from the field my mind drifted back to the evening of July 31st, 2014 when copious amounts of space/time was being dedicated to extolling the virtues of Billy Beane & Dave Dombrowski - whom was the greater genius - every pundit was analyzing the American League Championship series between Detroit & Oakland - bah humbug to the rest of the teams - how sweet it is!!
And what about that matchup for the Ages - the incomparable Clayton Kershaw vs. the unbeatable Adam Wainwright?

Ah baseball, the most maddeningly unpredictable sport there is - that's why I love you so much.

But not grammar, apparently. "...whom was the greatest genius..." Ouch!

The playoffs really is a crap shoot. We all know why as well...anything can happen in a short series. Pat Boarders hitting .400 or something in a 1992 series.

Beane & Dombrowski I suppose have to go for it. This is their window. I do not know how Oakland can keep Lester from signing elsewhere. I will be shocked if Oakland gives him the best offer.

At the July 31 deadline, there should be about 20 teams in play as potential buyers. That would leave 10 teams as non buyers.
Only 12 teams make the post season, so of the 20 potential buyers, 8 do not.

So then of the 20 buyers & 10 non buyers:
1) Who made big, powerful deals and did not make the playoffs?
2) I would expect none of the 10 non buying teams ever made the playoffs. First they were bad. And second their players lost faith in their team's front office, because they did nothing. So unless I am wrong (again), my logic is flawless.

Fun fact: teams that attempted more bunts in 2014 than Kansas City.

1. Tampa Bay
2. Cleveland
3. Toronto
4. Seattle

Who knew?

(The Royals don't bunt as often because they can steal a base pretty well any time they want, of course.)

To add to Dan's point on good hitting vs. good pitching, I thought it was interesting that, when ranked by WAR, 9 of 10 play-off teams placed in the top 10 for hitting during the regular season (Cardinals were 11th). By comparison, only 5 play-off teams ranked in the top 10 for starting pitching. Over the last 5 seasons, 76% of play-off teams ranked in the top 10 for hitting, compared to 52% for starting pitching. If hitting gets you to the play-offs, it would be interesting to look into how this compares to the adage that good pitching brings success in the post-season.

Interesting note: the Blue Jays were the only team to rank in the top ten for hitting (8th) and starting pitching (7th) and miss the play-offs.

And the Jay's missed by a lot.

This off season's discussions will be very interesting.

Does anyone else hate the 5 game series as much as I do?  I'm pulling for the Royals, but it just seems wrong that the Angels could be out so fast.

So is it safe to call the James Shields trade a win for the Royals now?  Wade Davis has been insane in the pen this year, gotta figure the Royals pick up his option, even though $7 million is steep for a set-up guy.

Also, it seems unforgivable roster management to me that the Tiger's pen is such a continual liability.  Again, looking at the Royals, you can see how easy it is to address this - fasttracking first rounder Brian Finnegan seems to have worked, and Jason Frasor's been good - picked up at the deadline for a 26 year old AAA reliever. 

2010 high school drafted players and 2011 college drafted players need to be added this year or we could lose them

The Rangers are interviewing six external candidates for their managerial opening. The list includes Torey Lovullo and Kevin Cash.

Clutch, why would you use WAR if you're talking about hitting stats?

Also, cool to see some new posters around here. Love the names, clutch, short, etc.

I hadn't seen this. A 90 year old newsreel has been found with highlights of the final game of the 1924 World Series.

First the Game Story! Trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth, the Senators tied the game on a two-run by player-manager Bucky Harris (the Boy Wonder - he was 28). Harris had homered earlier to accoun for the Sens previous run.  With the game tied heading for the ninth, Harris brought in his 36 year old ace Walter Johnson to pitch. After four somewhat disappointing seasons, Johnson had bounced back nicely in 1924 to lead the league in Wins, ERA, and Ks and was finally appearing in a World Series, for the first time in his brilliant career.  But he lost the opening game 4-3 in twelve innings, and he'd lost the fifth game as well. This time, however, he threw four shutout innings and Washington won it in the bottom of the 12th, a walkoff single by the otherwise completely forgotten Earl McNeely.

This is just great, of course. I've seen footage of Johnson throwing, but I've never seen footage of him actually pitching. I once had to describe Johnson's pitching motion (in my piece on the 1912) season, and I wrote this (based on the clips I'd seen and numerous descriptions):

Johnson, tall and lanky, with those long arms and that ridiculously easy looking sidearm motion that just whips the ball towards the batter

I think I got it!

I guess you can tell how excited I was by the footage by all the typos in the post. Sheesh....

I've been checking the play-by-play of the game. At around the 2:15 mark, it says "The game goes to extra innings" and you then see a LH Giants batter hitting a triple off Johnson. That was Frank Frisch himself - Frisch was basically the Roberto Alomar of the 1920s - and Johnson would pitch out of the jam, stranding Frisch at third. It was still the ninth inning, however. The game hadn't yet gone to extras.

Fair point JB21. Probably "position players vs. starters" would have been clearer. I'm only starting to get familiar with more advanced stats.

By wRC+, 7 play-off teams fill out the top 10, with Nationals (11), Cards (16) and Royals (18) falling out of that range. This lines up better with my understanding of the Cardinals and the Royals, especially.

In part, I was thinking about this from the perspective of how to build a successful team for the regular and post season. Specifically, how much weighting should be given to your rotation over position players.

A top starter will have about 900 pitcher/batter confrontations during the season, if he pitches 200-220 innings, whereas a position player will have about 600 pitcher/batter confrontations if he plays about 150 games, so the starter makes a bigger contribution in that regard. Of course, you have to factor in defense as well, particularly if you're talking about SS, C, CF, 2B. Because of all those pitcher/batter confrontations, you can go a long way with a few really good starters. If you look at the last 2 Blue Jays seasons, as an example, the very strong stretches they have had have corresponded to periods where they got consistently very good starting pitching. On the other hand, I think there still is a segment of the baseball universe that still believes the old adages about good pitching stopping good hitting, and baseball being 80% or 90% pitching, which is just silly. Good hitting is equally important, you just need more hitters to get to the same number of pitcher/batter confrontations. Four starters would have about the same number as six hitters.

As far as the post season is concerned, Bill James used to say that if you look at successful teams from previous years, power and front line pitching is what wins in the post season. I would add that in the years since he mentioned that in the old Baseball Abstract, the game has changed in that bullpens get used a lot more - starters don't go as long in games, and a deep bullpen is much more important than it used to be. If you look at successful post season teams from the last decade or so, I think you find that they generally tend to be able to go 5 or 6 deep with very high quality arms out of the bullpen.

It should be noted that batters are responsible for about 2/3 of the outcome of pitcher/batter confrontations, whether one is looking at K rates, GB/FB rates etc. In other words, if a batter strikes out once every 10 PAs and a pitcher strikes out four per 10 PAs, you expect for 2 strike outs per 10 PAs. 

Well, if you are going to put money on someone to end this sucker, Werth would be a good choice.

Thanks for the link Magpie! Don't think I've seen a head first slide at any base in pre 1950 footage, let alone a head first slide into first!
Every now and then something prompts me to break out the Ken Burns' classic and I now have plans for the evening (with a wee dram, single malt, natch).

It has been a great weekend of baseball. The first round is often the best round for excitement. The only downside is that one series is done and two others are 2-0.

Must be fun to be a Royals fan right now.

It does seem that the MLB playoffs have become like the NHL, in that a lot of the exciting games are early on.

Agreed. Every time I turn on the television, there seems to be an exciting game on.

Although I have a feeling that a KC/Balt ALCS would be a hell of a series should it happen, and it looks like it will.

Yes, the games have been great.  It looks like the big starting pitcher acquisitions didn't work out.  Price did what he was supposed to, but the whole "ace" mystique took a bit of a hit.

At the outset of the playoffs, it seemed like a Baltimore/LAA series would match what were easily the two best AL teams. It's hard to think that right now. A Baltimore/KC series seems to accomplish that objective.

The Royals have now won seven straight postseason games.

And the Giants have now won 10 straight post season games.

While "ace mythology" may have taken a bit of a hit this playoffs, not so for defence.  In the AL, defensive strength propels both the Royals and the Orioles.  In both cases, the starting pitching is mostly pedestrian and the fine bullpens would be overworked with a lesser defence.  WAR does get the broad strokes in the case of the Royals- the top 5 position players on the club are Gordon, Cain, Escobar, Perez and Dyson and all add tremendously with the glove.  In the O's case, it is more balanced with Cruz and Pearce adding with the bat and Hardy and Machado (and others- Schoop, Joseph, Loup) adding mostly with the glvoe.

Ack.  Brain cramp- Lough not Loup. 

There would be an interesting study... teams that win in the playoffs, are there any common characteristics?  Many feel having a big 2 starter situation is a big plus, others a closer, some defense, some power. 

The Jays playoff teams...
1985: lost in first round to Royals (last time Royals were in the playoffs).  103 OPS+, 128 ERA+ so clearly a pitching first team.  Big closer in Henke (211 ERA+ as a rookie), big 2 in rotation in Stieb (171 ERA+) and Key (141 ERA+) and a nice #3 in Alexander (123) in the days when you only would use 3 guys in the playoff rotation.  No one had 30 HR, 100 RBI, 300 avg (with 350+ PA, just Iorg over 300 with more than 100 PA), 400 OBP and just Barfield over 500 for Slg (Fielder also but just 81 PA).  Some great defense in Barfield (an all-time great) and Fernandez but also a lot of 'meh' in Moseby, Bell, Garcia, Mullinorg (platoon at 3B), Whitt, and Upshaw - none were terrible then, but none were standouts either.

1989: lost in first round to A's (the last time they won it all).  Fernandez was about it on defense with nightmare Mookie Wilson in CF (fun to watch, but not that good on defense).  107 OPS+, 102 ERA+, best ERA+ for a starter was John Cerutti at 119 but pen had Henke/Ward/Wells but Ward was still learning (4.6 BB/9). Only Fred McGriff had 20+ HR (hit 36). No one hit 300 over 10+ PA, no one had a 400 OBP over 20+ PA, only McGriff was over 500 for Slg.  So it was McGriff and friends on offense, while the pen held the pitching together.

1991: 96 OPS+, 121 ERA+, didn't remember it being that unbalanced.  Only Joe Carter had more than 20 HR, only Carter had 70+ RBI (!), no one over 50 PA had a 300 avg, 380 OBP, and only Carter reach 500 for Slg (barely at 503).  Clear big 3 in rotation were Guzman (142 ERA+), Candiotti (142 ERA+), and Key (139) while Henke/Ward were in their prime (32 and 23 saves respectively).  Defense was strong with White, Olerud, Alomar.  Knocked out in first round by the A's again.

1992: 106 OPS+, 104 ERA+ so not as strong as memory makes them.  Clear ace in Guzman (154 ERA+) but Morris gets all the credit (20 wins on a 101 ERA+) and David Cone was great (161 ERA+) while Key was solid (115).  Henke/Ward probably having their best combined year. Lots of 'bleck' after those though.  Again only Carter with 30+ HR, Carter & Winfield having 100 RBI (next was 76).  Alomar the only 300 hitter over 40+ PA, also only guy over 400 OBP, no one hit 500 for Slg but Carter & Winfield close (490's).  Defense again good up the middle (Lee/Alomar DP, White CF). 

1993: 110 OPS+, 103 ERA+, much less offense than one would expect from WAMCO.  Top 3 in batting average (Olerud/Alomar/Molitor) plus Fernandez over 300.  First 3 also over 400 for OBP while Olerud & Molitor had 500 Slg (Alomar in 490's, Carter 489).   A very weak bench (Griffen 28 OPS+ was on the team all year).  Staff didn't see a starter with an ERA+ over 112 (Guzman).  Ward/Eichhorn/Cox were great in the pen though.

I don't see a strong pattern myself really.  The big 2 teams had some key superstars on offense who weren't nightmares on defense while the previous 3 didn't have the depth of 'wow' on offense (generally one guy).  But I'd love to see a real analysis, especially post 1993 when the playoffs expanded and changed what it took to win.

There is no one way to win.  You can look at the 2005 White Sox and this year's AL playoff victors as one type.  In 2003, the Marlins won with a somewhat below average defence and great starting pitching (and a great catcher). I am pretty sure that you would find that on average, successful teams in the playoffs are as likely to have very good defence as very good top-end starting pitching or very good power. 

Unfortunately, the measures of team defence going back in time are less than satisfactory.  The Jays' team DRS figures in the playoff years were: 1985- +71 (Barfield, Fernandez), 1989- +7, 1991- +29 (Devon White), 1992- +32 (Devon White), 1993- +10 (Devon White).  During the Blue Jay period of excellence (1985-1993), we had two historically great defenders (Barfield and White) but no comparable offensive player (McGriff and Alomar were excellent obviously but not at the same level compared to the greatest who had ever played the position). 

Brings back old memories. Too many of my memories prove to be wrong. But here goes.
In 1989 the jays won only 89 games to Oaklands 99 wins. But I remember Rickey Henderson stole bases at will on the Jays. Catcher or pitcher I do not know which. Probably did not matter. IMO to say that he spooked (must be a better word) the whole Jays team is putting it mildly.
I did not realize that in 1987 we won 96 games and finished the season with a 7 game losing streak and in 2nd place. Detroit.....

Before I change my mind, I will say that I want a healthy amount of SBs in the offense. Also a very good defensive catcher.

Fernandez was about it on defense with nightmare Mookie Wilson in CF

Not in 1989 - Moseby was still the centre fielder, with Bell in LF and Felix in RF. Mookie played all three spots, depending who was resting or DHing. At this point Moseby was breaking down after all those years on the turf, but he was still the main guy in CF.

The 1989 division winners had exactly one starter who was better than .500 (Stieb at 17-8). That can't happen very often, and I once posed it as a kind of trivia question to the late John Cerutti. He didn't know the answer - I told him, he thought it over and said "How about that. Of course, I pitched better than .500," which was pretty easy to agree with.

1989's playoff was painful as the A's had their way with the Jays but I do recall Fernandez getting a triple in the one game the Jays won and the Sun having him on the front page with his celebration on that triple with 'Hot Dog' as the headline (Henderson had the same headline the day before iirc).  Henderson was at his best that series - twice the Jays had HOF'ers kill them, Henderson in 1989 and Brett in 1985. 

In 1989 I thought Mookie pretty much started non-stop down the stretch in CF... checking game logs though I see that he was in a mix/match in all 3 slots.  Moseby really slowed down then too - just a 221/306/349 line.  In Detroit he recovered a bit with a 2 year line of 253/326/402 but I guess it wasn't enough to get him another contact at age 32.

Looking at Jimmy Key's season in 1989 had me thinking about ERA and FIP.  From 1985 (when he moved to the rotation) to 1988, his ERA was 3.13 and his FIP was 3.82.  This was over 837 innings. Each year, his ERA was significantly better than his FIP.   In 1989, his ERA was 3.88 and his FIP was 3.17.  So, what accounted for the sudden reversal? The short account of things is that his BABIP went way up (he didn't have a great year with runners on, but had had a much worse year in 1987).  The club did move into the Skydome that year, but that wasn't it.  His BABIP went up both home and away, and both at Exhibition Stadium and at the Skydome.  Part of it appears to be defensive changes (foremost of which was the departure of Jesse Barfield at the end of April 1989) and part of it was bad luck. 

JP Arencibia has been outrighted to AAA by the Rangers.

For those who don't have MLB Network as part of their TV package (i.e. any Canadian who isn't a Rogers customer) and want to watch the Nationals-Dodgers game, it's available on TVA Sports.

I've really grown tired of the Rogers baseball monopoly in this country.

Why would I want to watch baseball when I can be watching NHL Top 100? On all 4 channels!? Or darts on the 5th channel!??!?!

wow JP hit .177/.239/.369 with a 28% strikeout rate. He's already been moved to 1st, does he make it back to the big club? I assume at some point he gets a shot at least somewhere but you have to think his story is familiar with most by now.

It pains me every time Kolten Wong does something good.  I still don't understand the decision to draft Beede. 

The Cardinal way is nearly a century old.  And it is still going strong. It is built on wisdom.  Like the decision to give Pujols a long-term contract early on and then to refuse to give him a second and to extend Molina instead.  Branch Rickey would be pleased. 

My understanding is that playoff games on MLB network are exclusive and not available for Rogers to broadcast (MLB wants you to subscribe).

Kolten Wong is a solid player and would solve a huge void for the Jays but at the time I had no problems with the Breede selection (which became the Stroman selection) - If I had a choice presently, I think I would stick with Stroman, but I see the Wong argument.

In the Pujols FA, the Cardinals eventually ended up offering a contract close to $220m and were more lucky than smart that the Angels really wanted to make a splash.

My understanding is that playoff games on MLB network are exclusive and not available for Rogers to broadcast (MLB wants you to subscribe).

Rogers helped bring the MLB Network to Canada and has a stake in it through the Blue Jays. I suspect Rogers could have acquired the rights to the MLB Network playoff games had it been inclined to do so.

I guess I can't pick and choose.  In 2012, the Jays chose D.J. Davis over Wacha and Stroman with their 17th overall pick.  I too would rather have Stroman than Kolten Wong.  I still don't like the decision to willingness to pass on picks. 

Actually, I think AA does deserve some credit with his ability to let a pick go for a year.  Sometimes it doesn't work well (James Paxton for Noah Syndergaard, although you could argue it was OK with Dickey here and that was pre-AA for Paxton) sometimes it does (Tyler Beede for Marcus Stroman) and sometimes we wish he had let a guy go (Deck McGuire - 11th overall in 2010, if not signed in 2011 the 12th pick was a 'meh' guy in Taylor Jungmann but two picks later was Jose Fernandez and he'd be sweet to have right now).

I think it is smart to go into it with a goal in mind and to know what is likely available the following year if you fail to sign the guy.  If it is a weak draft year and you know the next year is a strong one then it might be worth letting a guy go.  Other times it might be worthwhile pushing it to get him signed.  Hard to know right now though - in a few years we'll know better on the choices AA made.

When the Jays failed to sign Beede ,I was pissed, but I've actually come around to the Jays approach because I believe it's allowed them to sign guys like Norris, Stilson and others who were rumoured to have higher asking prices pre-draft & the jays have done pretty well with the pick the next year - so, when the jays didn't sign Bickford, I was merely disappointed rather than upset.

Question for those who advocated the Jays draft catcher Reese McGuire in 2013 - whom do you prefer McGuire or Pentecost?

AA's draft strategy is high risk, high reward and it's hard to argue with his results when taken as a whole.

2010 - lots of extra picks, but he still nabbed Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Asher Woj, Dyson, Nolin, Myles Jaye (half of the trade to re-acquire Jason Frasor) and Dickie Joe Thon.  Guys like danny barnes, shane opitz and andy fermin are still in the system.  and of course, 16th round HS pick Dalton Pompey looks pretty good.  GREAT DRAFT.

2011 brought Norris, Pillar, Matt Dean, Dwight Smith Jr. and Taylor Cole.  Guys still with the Jays who have shown promise at some point include Andy Burns,  John Stilson, Tom Robson and Christian Lopes.  a number of prospects were traded: Rollins, Musgrove and Comer in the Happ deal, and DeSclafani in the Miami blockbuster.  GOOD DRAFT

2012 - Stroman is the runaway win.  Smoral, Nay and Alford are legit prospects.  DeJong and Davis were high picks who have disappointed but still hold upside.   later round picks like Dawson, borucki and flores look good.  lots of misses but overall,  VERY GOOD DRAFT

2013 - top pick Bickford unsigned, and the 4 pitchers chosen after him have been unremarkable / injured thus far.  Graveman is the real surprise, but other unheralded guys like catcher Dan Jansen and Tim Locastro look interesting.  notable prospects include Tellez, Boyd, hollon and murphy - if healthy - and brentz.  SO-SO DRAFT

2014 - Hoffman and Pentacost are top ten prospects for us already, and many observers argued we had the best draft overall.  Reid-Foley and Wells were lauded picks.  HS picks Thomas and Hoffman had great debut seasons while later round college guys like Heidt, Romano, Mallard and McBroom also looked good.  older late round picks like Isaacs, Fisk, Carlson, Pepe and Kraft had strong numbers - with the appropriate age for level caveats.  GREAT D

IMO, AA has been one of the top five drafting GMs in MLB during his tenure.