Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Jay Top Prospects All Time

With the amazing year we've seen in the Jays minors it got me to thinking about prospects and how the Jays ones have done and what is the best year we've ever seen. Could we currently have the strongest farm in Jays history? Doubtful, but lets do a check.

I did the following comment in one of the threads and it is a good starting point for this...

The minors are looking good. What are some of the best years for the minors? To go unbiased I'll check Baseball America....

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: All-Time Top 100 Prospects (note: different link than I used before) covers 1990 to 2014. For that time frame...

95 players for the Jays made the list (out of 2500 possible). Over that time frame only the Twins (97), Marlins (100), Dodgers (100), Red Sox (101), and Atlanta (126) had more prospects on the lists. The Tigers came in last with 53 which is an achievement given the Rays and Diamondback weren't around from 1990 to 1996 (had farm systems for 1997).
John Olerud was highest ranked (#3 as a LHP and 1B) with other top 10's being Carlos Delgado (twice), Vernon Wells, Alex Gonzalez (twice), Alexis Rios, Shawn Green, Travis Snider, and Jose Silva. Dustin McGowan was highest ranked of current Jays at #18 in 2004 (and #36 in 2003, #48 in 2006, and #98 in 2002)
Somehow 13 times a Jays catcher made the list (Delgado three times, d'Arnaud three times, Guillermo Quiroz twice, JPA, Josh Phelps, Jayson Werth, Angel Martinez, and Joe Lawrence) but seeing those names you can see few stayed behind the plate.
33 RHP, 25 outfielders, 12 SS, 4 LHP (not counting Olerud), 3 1B, 3 2B, and 2 3B.
5 times the Jays had 6 prospects on the list. Using a reverse scale (#1 prospect worth 100 points to #100 worth 1 point) the best year is 1994 with 3 top 10's (Alex Gonzalez #4, Delgado #5, Silva #10, Shawn Green #28, D. J. Boston #66, Paul Spoljaric #99).
The other years with 6 were 1991 (Zosky, Whiten, Karsay, Moore, Timlin, Suero), 1995 (Green, Gonzalez, Silva, Stewart, Angel/Sandy Martinez, Chris Carpenter), 1992 (Derek Bell, Nigel Wilson, Alex Gonzalez, Delgado, Battle, Zosky), and 2004 (Rios, McGowan, Quiroz, Gross, Rosario, Hill). So that mid-90's team actually had a ton of prospects in the system plus they were drafting at an amazing rate then (Halladay, Koch, Wells, Lopez, Rios, McGowan from 1995 to 2000). Boy did Ash and JPR blow it.
2012 was the last time with 4 prospects (d'Arnaud, Norris, Gose, Marisnick), which 2011 has as well (Lawrie, d'Arnaud, McGuire, Drabek). The last 2 years were just 2 prospects each (Sanchez and Stroman both years - a nice pair to have).

So will the Jays have 7 this year? Wouldn't bet on it but they have had a lot of good players.

FYI: the most anyone has had was 9 - Dodgers in 2006 and Royals in 2011. 5 times 8 was reached including by the Red Sox this spring (dang it).

What about earlier than 1990? No BA top 100 lists for then but the Baseball Cube has the top 10 BA prospects for the Jays from 1983 to present (I do love the internet).
1989: 9 of the top 10 made the majors, with significant careers for Derek Bell, Junior Felix, Luis Sojo, Mark Whiten, and Francisco Cabrera with honourable mention to Denis Boucher.
1988: all 10 made it to the majors, careers for Felix, David Wells, Francisco Cabrera (more one big hit in the playoffs for Atlanta), Todd Stottlemyre, Greg Myers, Whitten. #1 was Sil Campusano
1987: 8 of 10 made it, Todd Stottlemyre, Jeff Musselman, Rob Ducey, Glenallen Hill, Nelson Liriano, and Mike Sharperson had decent careers
1986: 7 made it, Kelly Gruber, Sharperson, Fred McGriff, Hill were of note
1985: 7 made it, McGriff, Gruber, Sharperson, Hill, and Wells were of note
1984: 8 made it, Tony Fernandez #1, McGriff, Jimmy Key of note (killer big 3 there)
1983: just 7 made it, Fernandez, John Cerutti, McGriff, and Geno Petralli of note

For earlier years I'll do a check of BR for minor league stats (1982 is based on 1981 stats, etc)...
1982: Fernandez, Jesse Barfield, Mitch Webster,Petralli, Cerutti, Mark Eichhorn, are of note
1981: Petralli, Barfield, Fernandez, Mitch Webster, Eichhorn, Luis Leal jump out at me
1980: Lloyd Moseby, Barfield, Petralli, Ernie Whitt, Eichhorn, Leal, Garth Iorg
1979: Moseby, Petralli, Whitt, Iorg, Danny Ainge (yes, the basketball player), Barfield, Dave Stieb
1978: Barfield (there were others but can only find info for one minor league team, their low A one)

So a few of those years had some pretty good prospects but no idea which were viewed that way at the time (Moseby always was, as was Ainge but Eichhorn wasn't and I doubt Stieb was at first).
Of all the top 10 lists (1983 to 2014) what positions are represented? Using primary position (ie: 3B-2B is listed only at 3B) I get 139 P, 27 CA, 27 1B, 25 RF, 25 3B, 20 LF, 16 SS, 15 2B, 8 CF, 7 OF (DJ Davis, Anthony Alford the most recent ones), 1 IF (D.J. Boston). So the Jays have been very weak at developing CF's it seems as all 8 cases had other positions listed as well (LF or OF) - they were Gose, Campusano, and Marisnick with Wells listed as a LF.

Who showed up the most on the top 10 lists? IE: guys who the Jays probably should've called up earlier or who were very obvious talents very early on.

169 unique players on the list out of the 310 listed
5 times listed: Brandon League, Dustin McGowan, Francisco Rosario
4 times: Aaron Sanchez, Alex Gonzalez, Carlos Delgado, David Purcey, Fred McGriff, Glenallen Hill, J.P. Arencibia, Kevin Witt, Ricky Romero, Shannon Stewart
3 times: Alex Rios, Alex Sanchez, Chris Carpenter, Curtis Thigpen, Daniel Norris, Derek Bell, Eddie Zosky, Felipe Lopez, Gabe Gross, Guillermo Quiroz, Howard Battle, Jake Marisnick, Jose Pett, Jose Silva, Justin Jackson, Mark Whiten, Matt Stark, Matt Williams, Mike Sharperson, Roy Halladay, Russ Adams, Santiago Garcia, Shawn Green, Sil Campusano, Steve Karsay, Tom Evans, Travis Snider, Vernon Wells
2 times: Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Alexis Infante, Anthony Gose, Asher Wojciechowski, Augie Schmidt, Billy Koch, Brad Mills, Brett Cecil, Carlos Perez, Cesar Izturis, D.J. Davis, David Cooper, David Wells, Deck McGuire, Denis Boucher, Ed Sprague, Felipe Crespo, Francisco Cabrera, Jayson Werth, Joe Lawrence, Josh Banks, Josh Phelps, Junior Felix, Kelly Gruber, Kevin Ahrens, Kevin Cash, Luis Sojo, Marcus Stroman, Otis Green, Pat Hentgen, Paul Spoljaric, Roberto Osuna, Ryan Jones, Ryan Patterson, Sandy Martinez, Stan Clarke, Steve Cummings, Todd Stottlemyre, Tony Fernandez, Travis D'Arnaud, Vince Perkins, Zach Stewart
Just once: Aaron Small, Adam Meinershagen, Alberto Tirado, Andy Thompson, Anthony Alford, Anthony Sanders, Antonio Jimenez, Balbino Fuenmayor, Bill Pinkham, Bob File, Brad Emaus, Brandon Magee, Brent Abernathy, Brent Bowers, Brian Cardwell, Casey Janssen, Chad Jenkins, Chris Stynes, Chuck Kegley, Clayton Andrews, D.J. Boston, Dave Shipanoff, David Bush, Dawel Lugo, Dennis Jones, Drew Hutchison, Earl Sanders, Edwin Hurtado, Eric Hinske, Franklin Barreto, Gary Glover, Geno Petralli, Greg Myers, Greg O'Halloran, Gustavo Chacin, Henderson Alvarez, Jack McKnight, Jay Gibbons, Jeff Musselman, Jeff Reynolds, Jesse Litsch, Jimmy Key, Jimmy Rogers, Joe Young, John Cerutti, John Olerud, John Sneed, John Stilson, John Tolisano, Josh Roenicke, Justin Nicolino, Kelvim Escobar, Kevin Batiste, Kevin Sliwinski, Kyle Drabek, Lee Daniels, Marc Rzepczynski, Marcus Moore, Marty Janzen, Matt Ford, Matt Smoral, Michael Young, Mike Timlin, Mitch Nay, Nate Cromwell, Nelson Liriano, Nigel Wilson, Noah Syndergaard, Norm Tonucci, Orlando Hudson, Pasqual Coco, Peter Tucci, Randy Knorr, Ricky Trlicek, Rob Butler, Rob Ducey, Ron Shepherd, Sean Nolin, Steve Davis, Tom Davey, Tyler Gonzales, Tyrell Godwin, Vinnie Chulk, William Suero, Zach Jackson

Clearly being listed multiple times is not a guarantee of quality. Still, lots of really good guys on the 4 time list.

So which prospects became something special over the years? I'd say any of 1000+ hits, 100+ HR, 50+ wins, 100+ saves would qualify as being a successful prospect.

Hitters first... In order of lifetime hits

Fred McGriff: 2490 hits, 493 HR, 886 OPS qualifies easily
Michael Young: 2375 hits, 185 HR, 787 OPS
Tony Fernandez: 2276 hits, 94 HR, 746 OPS
John Olerud: 2239 hits, 255 HR, 863 OPS
Carlos Delgado: 2038 hits, 473 HR, 929 OPS
Shawn Green: 2003 hits, 328 HR, 849 OPS
Vernon Wells: 1794 hits, 270 HR, 778 OPS
Shannon Stewart: 1653 hits, 115 HR, 790 OPS
Alex Rios: 1554 hits, 162 HR, 768 OPS (active)
Orlando Hudson: 1319 hits, 93 HR, 753 OPS
Derek Bell: 1262 hits, 134 HR, 757 OPS
Aaron Hill: 1210 hits, 135 HR, 763 OPS (active)
Alex Gonzalez: 1209 hits, 137 HR, 693 OPS
Felipe Lopez: 1145 hits, 90 HR, 724 OPS
Cesar Izturis: 1103 hits, 17 HR 615 OPS
Jayson Werth: 1061 hits, 171 HR, 838 OPS
Ed Sprague: 1010 hits, 152 HR, 737 OPS
Glenallen Hill: 1005 hits, 186 HR, 803 OPS
Eric Hinske: 947 hits, 137 HR, 762 OPS
Adam Lind: 843 hits, 141 HR, 788 OPS (active and still here)
Kelly Gruber: 818 hits, 117 HR, 739 OPS
Mark Whiten: 804 hits, 105 HR, 756 OPS & 4 HR game
Jay Gibbons: 759 hits, 127 HR, 768 OPS

Noteables...

Greg Myers: 776 hits, 87 HR, 708 OPS but also great for a few years as a catcher
Luis Sojo: 649 OPS but key sub on many of the great Yankee teams
Nelson Liriano: key part of the late 80's teams, might have saved the 1987 season if called up earlier
Junior Felix: inside the park grand slam in his early days, if only he really was just 21 then instead of maybe 31.
Geno Petralli: another catcher 704 OPS
Josh Phelps: looked to be a great prospect as a pure hitter, but stalled out quick still with a lifetime 815 OPS
Mike Sharperson: died while still active, an example of Jimy Williams pulling the plug on a kid just to give an over the hill vet a shot (Garth Iorg)
Travis Snider: still active, could reach 100 HR given his 118 OPS+ this year and 50 lifetime HR (active)
Rob Ducey: best player born in Toronto, raised in Cambridge - sadly I'll never pass him for that status...
J.P. Arencibia: 64 HR, will probably keep getting shots and we all know he won't stop swinging for the fences (active)
Felipe Crespo: the man who cost Roy Halladay a perfect game in his first ML call-up (booted a ball, allowing the only baserunner until the 2 out HR in the 9th)

Pitching in win order... Listing all with 50+ wins

David Wells: 239 wins, 4.13 ERA, 13 saves, released way too soon
Roy Halladay: 203 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1 save
Jimmy Key: 186 wins, 3.51 ERA, 10 saves
Chris Carpenter: 144 wins, 3.76 ERA
Todd Stottlemyre: 138 wins, 4.28 ERA, 1 save
Pat Hentgen: 131 wins, 4.32 ERA, 1 save
Kelvim Escobar: 101 wins, 4.15 ERA, 59 saves
Mike Timlin: 75 wins, 3.63 ERA, 141 saves, saved the first WS win in Jays history
David Bush: 56 wins, 4.73 ERA
Ricky Romero: 51 wins, 4.16 ERA
John Cerutti: 49 wins, 3.94 ERA, 4 saves - close enough to list
Billy Koch: 29 wins, 3.89 ERA, 163 saves

Noteables...

Gustavo Chacin, Jesse Litsch, Steve Karsay, and Aaron Small all had their moments (Small with the Yankees to push them into the playoffs once)
Brandon League, Jeff Musselman, Marc Rzepczynski, Vinnie Chulk, Paul Spoljaric, are all worth remembering in their own ways.
Brett Cecil, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan, Henderson Alvarez are all still building their resumes, some more than others.
Dave Stieb would be high up with his 176 wins but was pre-BA top 10 lists and might not have made them anyways given how fast he climbed (qualified for this list just once, the year he was an OF who had 4 starts in A ball)

So of the 310 top 10 prospects there have been a lot of really good players of course. A few near HOF quality (Halladay, Wells, Delgado, McGriff, Delgado, Olerud, Young, Fernandez), many All-Stars and 'if only' guys. Some reached their peak here, some not until well after their time here.

248 of those 310 did reach the majors. Some are double/triple/etc. counted, but we are just measuring 'if in the top 10 could they make it'. So 80% do reach at some point. Of the 169 unique players 124 reached (73%).

FYI: one of the best, and maybe a HOF'er, produced by the Jays system is Jeff Kent but he never made a BA top 10 list. Go figure. He was in the system in 1990/1991/1992 as well, when the Jays had a massive system according to the top 100 prospect lists.

So tons of talent, but also tons of 'argh' there too. We'll see if the talent this year makes this list more or less impressive by around 2020 I'd expect but we could see guys sneaking into the majors and even having good careers without reaching until well after that.

Posted by John Northey on Friday, October 03 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT.

Jay Top Prospects All Time | 33 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

bpoz - Saturday, October 04 2014 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#294283) #

Thanks John. This is great.

Gerry - Sunday, October 05 2014 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#294313) #

Matt Carpenter is an interesting example of prospecting.

Carpenter was drafted in the 13th round of the 2009 draft. He was 23 years and 8 months old.

In 2009 he played July in the Midwest League where he hit well and August in the FSL where he did not hit. He was older than average for both leagues.

In 2010 he returned to the FSL for a month, hit well, and spent the rest of the year in AA where he put up an OPS of 900. In AA he finally was at the average age for the league.

At the end of 2010, having hit over 300 in AA, Baseball America did not include him as a top 30 prospect.

In 2011 Carpenter went to AAA as a 25 year old. He hit 300 and had an OPS of 880. At this stage Carpenter had hit almost everywhere he had played but because of his age he was not thought of as much of a prospect.

After 2011 Baseball America ranked Carpenter at number 11 for the Cardinals but noted that he did not have much power, and his range and arm were questionable.

After three major league seasons Carpenter has an OPS+ of 125. That's pretty good for a guy who was mostly was considered a non-prospect.

MatO - Tuesday, October 07 2014 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#294339) #

It's been reported that BA's top 20 for the FSL include Norris at 3, Pompey at 5, and Smith Jr. at 19. Pompey scored a scouting 80 for CF defence (for those who don't know that's like elite/super-elite).

Pompey, Smith Jr., Nolin and Osuna are the main guys at the AFL this year which is just starting up.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 07 2014 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#294341) #

Wow, Pompey at 80? That would be Devon White territory. He did look great out there and if he could do that over a season then he could hit very poorly and still be an asset. In an extremely limited sample size his CF UZR/150 was 15.2 (amazing) and in LF it was 25.4. Just 13 guys in the majors had a higher CF UZR/150 this year over 250+ innings while in LF only just 2 reached his level in 250+ innings. Of course, he was well under 100 innings at each so his stats are not that strong but still noteworthy.

In LF if you cut to 20 innings minimum you see... Gose #4 (Sierra was #3) in UZR/150, Pompey #23 out of 158. Pillar was #62 (4.0)
In CF if you cut to 20 innings minimum you see... Gose #19 (23.0 in 485 2/3 innings), Pompey #31 out of 115. Pillar was #42 (5.4)

The 3 of them are assets on defense and the ratings suggest Gose is #1 followed by Pompey both with 'wow' talent, while Pillar is good but not 'wow'. A shame we don't have strong stats for the minors (unless someone knows where one can find them).

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 07 2014 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#294343) #

You can reduce the sample size issues by using 3 year data for Gose. In 901 innings over that period, he is +2 according to DRS and +8 according to UZR. I personally would take the mid-point, +5, and then pro-rate it to 150G. That would give a figure of +8/150.

There isn't the data for Pompey, but I think that he's better than that. If you watched the Bisons when he was there, you would see that the range he displayed when he was here was not a fluke. There's a reason the Bisons had him in CF and Gose in RF. I think that the club was showcasing Gose in TO in September, and so the roles were usually reversed here. That's my opinion, but others might see it differently.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 07 2014 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#294344) #

Having two elite defensive CF's would be very valuable, even if Gose tops out as a 4th OF. If the Jays do start Pompey and Gose together in 2015 (a distinct possibility if money is an issue) then I hope it is Pompey in CF and Gose in LF (platooning with Pillar). I'd rather they play the higher upside player in the premium spot.

But great to hear that much praise about Pompey's defense. A switch hitter with great defense at CF, speed, and plate discipline is very exciting. A hometown kid makes it all the more perfect.

observer2010 - Tuesday, October 07 2014 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#294349) #

Thanks for posting this amazing list. Those names bring back a lot of great memories of guys who made it, others who had short lived success, and others who never caught on they way it looked like they would.

jerjapan - Tuesday, October 07 2014 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#294356) #

A great read indeed. I had no idea that guys like Derek Bell and Glenallen hill topped 1000 hits.

David Wells showed up in two of our all-time ill-fated transactions - the 'we don't do medical homework' Mike Sirotka deal and his spring-training release in 1993 - over an argument with Cito over his roll as a starter or reliever if I remember correctly. Looking back on his career, Wells was right - he should've been starting, and he finished the year with better results that Stewart, Morris and Stottlemyre produced in our second world series rotation. of course, his real value to us would have come from 94 onwards ...

mathesond - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#294375) #

Wells was also in a 3rd transaction, coming over with Homer Bush for Roger Clemens

John Northey - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#294376) #

The Clemens for Wells deal was an interesting one at the time. Ash felt he had to 'win now' thus wanted proven talent. Also he was burned bad by the Cone for Janzen deal a few years earlier. Rumours were that Clemens would approve only Houston, Texas, or the Yankees for a trade. Texas at the time had lots of prospects, so lets look at who those prospects were...
Via Baseball Cube you can see the top 10 BA prospects for Texas by year. Pre-1999 the top prospect was an outfielder, Ruben Mateo. I remember many hoping the Jays would get him then. He ended up playing under 300 ML games with a 689 OPS. A bit surprising as he was just 20 in 1998 in AA with a 309/371/522 line. For whatever reason he just never developed. He still was in the Mexican League in 2013 with a 1000+ OPS. Other top 10 prospects for Texas were equally 'meh' outside of #4 Carlos Pena who was in 18 games last year, lifetime 233/348/465 line but didn't play regular until 2003 thus would've been no help for Ash.

Now, Houston's top 10 is a LOT more interesting. #1 was Lance Berkman who would've been sweet (293/406/537). Imagine the Jays of the 2000's having him with Delgado in the lineup. Sigh. Also had Julio Lugo (SS) 269/333/384 lifetime, Roy Oswalt on the mound (163-102 3.36 ERA). I suspect the Jays could've had all 3 for Clemens (coming off 2 straight pitching triple crowns) and with those 3 the story of the 2000's might have been a whole lot different than it was.

The Yankees top 10 had Mr injury Nick Johnson, Alfonso Soriano (dang it), Mike Lowell, Juan Rivera and others who weren't terrible. Instead we got Homer Bush, a reliever and Wells. Sigh. What could've been.

MatO - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#294377) #

I remember hearing a few years later that Oswalt was part of what Houston was offering for Clemens.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#294378) #

In fairness to Ash, Oswalt at the time was a long ways away. He was a 23rd round pick who, after the 1998 season, had just turned 21 and had a very good year in Auburn in the New York Penn League. He made incredible progress after that to be a Cy Young candidate in his rookie year in 2001. Berkman was a lot closer. He spent part of 1999 in the majors, was pretty good in 2000 and then became a beast in 2001. Lugo didn't really hit his stride into 2003.

Wells delivered two good seasons to the Blue Jays in 1999 and 2000; his seasonal lines would fit quite neatly into Mark Buehrle's career. It's obvious that in the long-term, two of these guys would have delivered a lot more value than Wells and Bush. In this case, the long-term would have begun in 2001 (particularly if the two were Berkman and Oswalt). It might have ended up saving Ash's job...

jerjapan - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#294380) #

A few years back I recall reading an article were Cashman said that his 'jaw dropped' at the names Ash asked for in exchange for Wells.

Homer Bush was interesting ... he was an unheralded 26 year old reserve infielder when we got him but he posted a WAR of 3.3 in 1999, his first season with Toronto and his first as a regular. he was terrible the next season, decent in 2001 and pretty much done after that. Hip injuries killed his career, but he looked like something of a find that first year. He made nearly 8 million over his time in Toronto, so clearly he was no bargain.

Lloyd was a tolerable LOOGY for one season, with terrible peripherals. At 31 years old, Ash must have been seduced by that 1.67 ERA in 31 innings the year before.

Dave Till - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#294381) #

A while back, I realized that Homer Bush and Damaso Garcia were remarkably similar players. Both played second, both had good speed, and both hit over .300 in their best seasons with few walks. Bush had a career line of .285/.324/.358, and Damo's was .283/.309/.371. Bush seems to have been slightly better defensively.

However, Garcia played at a time when no one realized that walks were important, so he got into two All-Star games and was at the bottom end of two MVP ballots (finishing 24th and 26th). Bush, with roughly the same skills, was a marginal player, because the world had changed.

John Northey - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#294382) #

Checking online...

Yankee reaction when deal was done ... no question they were happy. Says Ash tried for Pettitte, Soriano, Posada, etc. but Cashman wouldn't do it. Then Ash asked for Wells/Bush/Lloyd and it was 'woohoo' for the Yanks.
Negative was the reaction here
The Sun article mentions Houston's offer was Mike Hampton & Derek Bell - Hampton had a 155 and a 142 ERA+ the next 2 years before signing a crazy free agent deal in Colorado. Derek Bell would collapse the following year to a 67 OPS+ (from a 125) then a 98 and a 48 as part of operation shutdown. Ash was after Scott Elarton (87 ERA+ lifetime in the end) and Richard Hidalgo (110 OPS+ lifetime, 147 OPS+ in 2000 in all 3 OF slots so he might have made the difference that year but only had one other season remotely comparable (2003)).
It also says the Rangers offer was Ruben Mateo and Eric Gunderson. Mateo flopped, Gunderson was a reliever with a sub 100 ERA+
Checking old newsgroups Baseball Prospectus' reaction is here with comments. The key line "if he's happy with this deal, he has no business holding a job in professional baseball."
An interesting tidbit is an old AP article from December '98 "Clemens said that while he was withdrawing his demand, he would accept a trade if Toronto still wanted to make one and would not set a condition of renegotiating his $31.1 million, four-year contract, which has two years remaining." Wonder if he stuck around what would've happened.

Sigh...

Of course, one year later things looked a bit different to me at least (gulp...blinking internet makes it impossible to forget doesn't it).

Dave Till - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#294383) #

Checking old newsgroups Baseball Prospectus' reaction is here with comments. The key line "if he's happy with this deal, he has no business holding a job in professional baseball."

Oh man, that takes me back. I'm in that thread :-)

John Northey - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#294384) #

Just for fun...

Clemens in 99/00 (years his contract covered): 7.5 bWAR. Clemens bWAR after his Jays years: 38.0
Wells: 7.8 bWAR in 99/00 - he actually out pitched Clemens those years (!!!). 15.5 bWAR after that for a total of 23.4 bWAR post trade
Homer Bush: 3.3 bWAR in 99, -1.0 bWAR from 00 to 2004 - ie: Jays would've been best to just release him after 99.
Graeme Lloyd: 1.0 bWAR in 99, injured for 00, -0.4 for the rest of his career

So, if you cut out post 99 for Bush & Lloyd and just worry about the years that mattered for Ash (99/00) this was a good trade - 12.1 bWAR vs 7.5 bWAR. If you factor in all of Clemens career vs all of the career of the others then the Yankees win 38 to 27.7 (not counting the sub-replacement post 99 careers of Bush & Lloyd).

In truth, looking at the other likely options this might have indeed been the best Ash could do. If Ash had gotten, say, Hidalgo and Hampton then it would've been better but he easily could've got Mateo and misc from the Rangers and looked even worse.

Original Ryan - Thursday, October 09 2014 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#294385) #

I hated the Clemens-for-Wells trade at the time as there wasn't much of a forward-looking aspect to it. Wells was less than a year younger than Clemens, and both Wells and Lloyd had only one year left on their respective contracts (although Wells would later sign an extension). I really started to lose confidence in Ash after that deal, and he lost me permanently with the Green-for-Mondesi trade a year later.

Ryan Day - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#294386) #

Lloyd was a tolerable LOOGY for one season, with terrible peripherals. At 31 years old, Ash must have been seduced by that 1.67 ERA in 31 innings the year before.

Lloyd did turn into a draft pick that Ash used on Dustin McGowan, so there's a bit of a silver lining.

bpoz - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#294387) #

I forgot the Green for Mondesi trade. I absolutely hated the Olerud for Robert Person trade.
Should not some scouts also be blamed for this nonsense.
Not enough Due Diligence in the Wells for M Sirotka deal.

Dave Till - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#294396) #

Wells for Sirotka cost Gord Ash his job (just as Joey Hamilton for Woody Williams cost Dave Stewart a shot at the GM's job).

The Clemens deal was complicated by rumours of an unofficial out clause in Clemens' contract - not sure if it actually existed. It was widely believed that Ash had no choice but to trade Clemens to the Yankees.

Green wanted out of Toronto and had said so (in his book, he said that he and Cito clashed). So the option was to trade for Mondesi or let him walk for a draft pick. Because the Jays had just lost Clemens, they didn't want to be seen as a nursery club for big-market teams. (This was also the motivation for the Vernon Wells deal - they'd just lost Delgado.)

In hindsight, Olerud for Person makes no sense. Olerud was worth about 10 Persons. Even given that they wanted to move Olerud to give Delgado the first base job, the trade seems awful in retrospect (especially since the Jays paid $5 million of his salary the next year).

By the way (if Baseball Reference is to be believed), John Olerud and Dale Sveum are cousins. I didn't know that.

bpoz - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#294397) #

Questions about Olerud.

Did he ever have a bad season?
How healthy was he?

It seem to me that he was a wonderful player both with the Jays and after the Jays. Someone must want him.
Delgado needs? to play 1B. OK fine, but how about DH. That was a big and reliable bat. It should be worth something quite good.
By the way, I think he was healthy and good. Mr Consistency. You got your monies worth. Unlike many injury prone players and players that went bust very, very unexpectedly.
Now I am depressed. It maybe another 20 years of no playoffs.

I need help from Mylegacy.

Most of us realize and have said that Ash was desperate. Win Now or Bust. I hope AA does not go the same route.

John Northey - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#294398) #

With Olerud the issue the media and many others felt was Gaston feeling Olerud could be a big time slugger but instead he kept taking walks and not swinging for the fences. No question at the time and in retrospect the Jays would've been far, far better off doing almost anything but what they did. To trade Olerud AND pay his salary just to get Person (99 ERA+, entering age 27 season, never showed much in the minors) seems insane. He had one year left before free agency, and quite frankly releasing Joe Carter would've been smarter (Carter in '96 had a 95 OPS+ slug heavy while Olerud had a 116 OBP heavy - in '97 Olerud made the same as Carter and had a 135 OPS+ vs Carter's 77 at DH/1B mainly).

Once Clemens signed pre-1997 the Jays were clearly in a 'win now' mode again but boy was Ash the wrong guy at the wrong time for that. The ugly trades (Olerud for Person, Clemens for Wells/Bush/Lloyd, Green for Mondesi & Borbon, Wells for Sirotka, Williams for Hamilton, Young for Loaiza) just were so ugly that his few good ones (Plesac for Tony Batista, Davey/Sinclair for Segui then Segui for Fullmer, Timlin/Spoljaric for Cruz Jr) are swamped. Interesting that his best trades were relievers for everyday players.

SK in NJ - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#294400) #

This thread is depressing as hell. Can we please pretend that the Gord Ash era never existed? He is already one of the worst GM's I have ever seen in my lifetime (no hyperbole), but can you imagine if the rumored Pedro Astacio deal in 2000 actually happened? We'd be looking at the worst GM of all time.

Gillick not sticking around for a little bit longer ruined this franchise, and we are still waiting for someone to fix it 20 years later. Ash set the team back centuries (okay, that's hyperbole) with his incompetence.

jerjapan - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#294401) #

That's a terrifyingly bad list John - even the clear 'wins' at the time never developed the way they might have (Fullmer turning into an ass, Cruz never putting it together, Batista falling apart and being waived).

Aside from drafting Halladay, Young and Wells, and signing Clemens, Ash was a bust as GM. Cone for Janzen, Jarvis and Gordon?

All of our GMs have had their bad moments - AA trading Gomes for Rogers, Riccardi dealing Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty and signing BJ Ryan, Gillik dealing Kent for Cone. Gillick got his 'stand Pat' nickname a bit unfairly, but he definitely was conservative in his deals. He did pick up Rance Mullinicks, Fred McGriff, Alfredo Griffin and Cecil Fielder for not much cost.

It's clear to me that we have had one HOF GM, one inconsistent but creative young buck who's story is still unfolding, one mediocrity, and one disaster.

Worth noting that it was AA who suggested trading for Bautista to JP. According to Brendan Kennedy at the Star

J.P. Ricciardi was the Jays GM at the time and Anthopoulos was his assistant. He (AA) says Ricciardi deserves all the credit for the trade. But these minor transactions were part of Anthopoulos�s purview and he was the one who suggested the Jays put in a claim on Bautista.

�I brought it to J.P., told him Bautista was on trade waivers and I think we should put in a claim. J.P. said, �Absolutely, let�s put in a claim.��

Mike Green - Friday, October 10 2014 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#294402) #

It is not fair to judge Ash solely by his trading record (which was bad). The team's record of drafting in his era was probably the best in the major leagues (Steve Treder studied this methodically in the Hardball Times a few years ago). The development record was definitely spotty.

If you look at the whole thing as a package, he is pretty clearly nowhere near the worst GM of all time. Even if you are thinking of the last 25 years, I think of Tony Reagins, Bill Bavasi, Dave Littlefield and a few others.

John Northey - Saturday, October 11 2014 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#294409) #

Mike Green: I think the article you are referring to is this one. It covers 1994 to 1997 and Jays products (players who came up in the Jays system) produced 340 win shares in '97 to lead the majors but the team sucked. The key issue was trading away talent - guys like Jeff Kent, John Olerud, Tony Fernandez (free agent), Derek Bell, Glenallen Hill (who was good then), Jose Mesa (solid reliever/closer at that time), David Wells (released), Jimmy Key (free agent), Todd Stottlemyre (free agent).

Jays draft record for WAR under Ash...
1994: 2.1 WAR (kinda/sorta Ash - Gillick handing it over that year)
1995: 101.5 WAR, Halladay, Freel, Craig Wilson. Score inflated due to drafting but not signing Ted Lilly (27.0 WAR).
1996: 63.9 WAR, helped with an extra 30.9 by Orlando Hudson who didn't sign this season. Casey Blake, Billy Koch, Josh Phelps are 'of note'.
1997: 98.6 WAR, Hudson/Wells/Young
1998: 13.9 WAR - Felipe Lopez, Jay Gibbons, Bob File.
1999: 45.9 WAR - Rios/Reed Johnson
2000: 2.2 WAR - McGowan the 'winner' here
2001: 7.2 WAR - Gabe Gross and Brandon League.

So his great drafting record was 4 'wow' years and 3 'meh' to 'blech' years. That 1995-1997 stretch sure was nice though. Skip Lilly and one of the 2 times Hudson was drafted and you get 3 years with 206.1 WAR (68.7 per year, or the equivalent of adding more than Halladay each season). Sadly, Blake and Young produced 0 for the Jays - instead we got nada for Blake (lost on waivers) and 2 1/2 years of Esteban Loaiza (3.8 WAR). Sigh.

FYI: Gillick had some nightmare years with the draft (0 ML'ers in 1980, 3.9 WAR in 81, 8.5 in 83, 9.0 in 84, 3.4 in 85 ignoring the draft but not sign of Jim Abbott, , but did get key parts (Barfield in 77, Moseby & Stieb in '78, Wells & Key in '82, Hentgen in '86, Woody Williams in '88, Olerud & Kent in '89 [113 WAR between them], Green in '91, Stewart in '92, Carpenter in '93) fairly often. Just 5 total disaster drafts with a few others close to it but look at what he left Ash - Carpenter, Stewart, Green, Olerud, Williams, Hentgen. Nice core there that was tossed out pretty much by Ash. Not to mention how (iirc) Ash blew it with Epy Guerrero who provided the Jays with tons of talent before that (Fernandez, scouted Bell, etc.).

Yeah, the Ash years were very, very disappointing. JPR's weren't much better. Lets hope AA does something good this winter so he doesn't land in the JPR 'meh' pile of GM's.

SK in NJ - Saturday, October 11 2014 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#294413) #

"It is not fair to judge Ash solely by his trading record (which was bad). The team's record of drafting in his era was probably the best in the major leagues (Steve Treder studied this methodically in the Hardball Times a few years ago). The development record was definitely spotty."

Didn't Ash just keep all of the scouts the Jays had prior to his hiring? If so, then I'm not sure how much credit Ash deserves for that. Alex at least hired a lot of his scouts (I think). Ash also ruined the team's relationship with Epy Guerrero, which definitely hurt. If he listened to Epy, we'd have seen Pedro's prime years in Toronto.

The trade history was not just bad, it was terrible. He traded HOF or HOF calibre talent within the divison for nothing of any long-term value (Clemens/Cone). He let a HOF go for nothing (Alomar). He chose to keep Joe Carter (negative WAR from1995-98) over John Olerud, and proceeded to trade Olerud and $5M for Robert Person. He didn't get any real return on the WS mainstays, instead letting them walk away for nothing. I could go on.

With the amount of talent that was drafted during his time, and the talent that he inherited (Delgado, Green, Gonzalez, Carpenter, Escobar, etc), there was no excuse to mess that up. Imagine if he traded guys like Olerud, White, Cone, etc, for actual value and actually kept Roberto Alomar (who should have been our Derek Jeter....we'll forget he started out a Padre)?

He was really, really bad. Elite level bad.

bpoz - Sunday, October 12 2014 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#294416) #

Bravo SK in NJ. Very well said.

There is a concept of cleaning house. I do not know if this applies regarding any of Ash, JPR or AA.

John Northey - Sunday, October 12 2014 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#294417) #

It is interesting to see the Jays GM history...
Bavasti: One year only, 1977. Didn't do what Gillick told him to - trade Singer for a kid in the NYY minors (31 ML innings) named Ron Guidry.
Gillick: post 1977 season to 1994, although 1994 was a transition year from Gillick to Ash. 2 WS plus 3 other years in the playoffs. The golden era of Jays history
Ash: 1995-2001 - aka the wasted years, tons of talent but dumb choice after dumb choice led to nothing but disaster
JPR: 2002-2009 - aka the frustrating years. Some big talent wasted in Halladay & Delgado as he never could fill the rest of the roster out and was given a tight budget thus pushed Delgado out, then got cash and blew it on guys like Frank Thomas.
AA: 2010-now - aka the hopeful years but might change to wasted/frustrating. Rebuilt the farm, cleared out ugly Wells contract, but now has an ugly Reyes deal to work with ($22 mil a year from age 32-34)

Ash's time was the most frustrating as we had just come off of 2 WS wins and the strike. Here he had (at the end) Halladay, Carpenter, Escobar, Wells or Clemens (depending on the year). A lineup with Delgado, Stewart, Cruz, Green. Many others who had a few good years and yet the team never won more than 88. He did a manager hunt and took the guy who lied on his resume over Davy Johnson (one of the best ever) who wanted badly to come here at the time (he saw the talent). His trades were covered, but his driving top scouts away (like Epy Guerrero) was equally bad. Look at his last 2 drafts and you get the idea that he was dropping quality already. Sigh.

bpoz - Monday, October 13 2014 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#294420) #

J Guzman & P Hentgen fitted in there too. Davy Johnson is now available again.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#294427) #

Doubt Davey Johnson wants to manage anymore though. He is 71 after all. In his career he managed 14 full seasons and 3 partial. In those 14 full seasons his team was 1st or 2nd in 13 of them and 3rd the other time (that was his only full season sub 500).

What is extra frustrating was that he was manager of the year in 1997 then was fired by the Orioles. Talk about perfect timing to take him in and run with it. But no, Ash had to go with someone else. Sigh. Real shame as who knows what he might have done - he is the type who would've told Ash off for doing stupid trades and would've put up with no nonsense in the clubhouse. With a WS ring and plenty of playoff experience it is a safe bet players would've listened too - heck, he is the guy who moves Ripken off SS and over to 3B.

If Johnson wants to manage again I'd sign him in a second but I doubt he does as he made a bit of a show of retiring while with Washington.

subculture - Tuesday, October 14 2014 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#294434) #

Stumbled across this article, a sobering check on what can happen to prospects even AFTER they make it to MLB... I would have bet my house on Romero having a long successful career, and my car that Drabek would at least turn into closer material. Good news is that I might still have a shot of sleeping in my car :)

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2012/03/08/cox_blue_jay_kyle_drabeks_progress_parallels_ace_ricky_romero.html

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