One week remains, and the Seattle Mariners find themselves 1.5 games behind Kansas City in the hunt for the Wild Card Game.

So Robinson Cano might make the playoffs? After he was told he would regret giving that life up by leaving Gotham? This can't be. Maybe Jay Z's Run This Town was really about Seattle. (Or maybe I shouldn't dabble in pop culture that's way after my time!)

Dalton Pompey was mentioned by Keith Olbermann in the latter's Worst Persons in the Sports World segment. Fortunately (I guess) for Pompey, he was only mentioned in passing and not as one of the worst persons.

Pillars walk was his 4th in his last 20 PA's after not drawing one in his first 90 PA's this year.

Now, that was something from Pompey. 

Huh. I suppose Pompey can play a bit of centre.
Wow.

Whoa. That's one of the best plays I've ever seen.

Well, this game is basically the highlight reel for the offseason - Pillar walks and homers, Gose hits a HR, Pompey makes a great play and gets two hits...Happ pitches 7 and gives up 2 runs. If Pompey goes deep, that pretty much completes the "best-case scenario" bingo card for the night. As an aside, Bautista plays great D, homers, and takes lead for MLB OBP.

Anyone picked a favourite non-Jays team yet?

Royals -  I just can't cheer for the Royals, even though decades of irrelevance has eroded my dislike for them.
Detroit - But against Detroit, I cheer for the Royals I guess (so sick of Detroit)....
Orioles - yeah....no
Angels - hardly ever see them, maybe they are my favourite?
Seattle - would be my favourite, but I'd rather see the Jays win a few more games instead.
Oakland - a blank slate, despite years of attention. Long descent from MLB best makes me dislike them for some reason though.
Cleveland - a huge late comeback would get me on the bandwagon, most likely.

A Sean Nolin sighting! My wish has come true!

Right on cue, he gives up a deep fried tater off the third deck.

Just watched some highlights on my phone. Pompey's catch was solid, more amazing to me because he did look like Devo running. Best part of the game was Buck on Joey's bomb. "You can tell this one goodbye!!!". How does he still have a job?

KC won one of their two games today so the tragic number is down to 1 now.  MLB.com's playoff odds has the Jays at 0.0% or not even a 1 in 1000 shot now.  Still, if they can sweep Seattle at least they'd kill someone else's dream as well.  Their tragic number is down to 5 now.  2 more wins and the Jays are 500 again, 3 more wins out of the final 6 and an over 500 season is theirs.  Well, better than a kick in the pants I guess.

FYI: Boston is sub 500 no matter what now (68-88) and is 1/2 a game behind Houston.  Tampa is 75-81 so they need to win out the string to avoid a sub-500 season for the first time since they were the 'Devil Rays' in 2007.  The Yankees have 81 wins now so they cannot finish sub-500.

What a waste of a season. This was probably the easiest road to the playoffs the Jays have seen in two decades and they still failed, despite an amazing season from Bautista and the rotation staying healthy nearly all season save for Morrow (who was replaced by a much better option anyway).

I hope Rogers spent whatever money they saved by not giving Alex any additional funds wisely. Not letting AA add anyone of significance when the team was leading a WC spot in late-July still baffles me. Even from a business standpoint that made no sense.

Of course, the big question is what would've made a difference?  Adding more pitching July 31st wouldn't have necessarily have helped...
David Price: the big prize, has a 98 ERA+ since going to Detroit in 9 starts
Jon Lester: very expensive, but a 170 ERA+ in 10 starts (for Oakland) would've been helpful
Jason Hammel: 83 ERA+ since the trade to Oakland (11 starts, 1 relief)
Jeff Samardzija: 128 ERA+ in Oakland (15 starts)

So Lester and Samardzija would've helped, Hammel hurt, Price would've just been an expensive water treader.  They would've replaced Happ (3.98 ERA since July 31) or Hutchison (4.26 ERA since July 31st).  Around a 4.00 ERA would be a 100 ERA+ in Toronto.  Samardzija would've been the biggest asset as it would've taken him away from Oakland and maybe pushed them down a game or two while pushing the Jays up by 1 or 2 (maybe).

Nick Franklin, who Tampa got from Seattle, might've been the biggest help but Tampa had to give up David Price in that trade.  Seattle only got Austin Jackson, a CF with a 102 OPS+ lifetime who has 2 years of control left... one wonders if the Jays couldn't have gotten him for Rasmus plus Gose or Pillar or something.  Sigh.  Franklin, since being called up in September, has hit 462/533/846 but it is just 15 PA so far.

Strangely, the Blue Jays have hit pretty decently against King Felix- led by Colby Rasmus' 7-10 with 2 walks.  It would be a good day to run out an outfield of Pompey, Rasmus, Gose with Bautista at first (Jose has dominated Felix head-to-head). and maybe Juan Francisco at third base.  Encarnacion has earned a day off.

This club has gone 14-19 in one run games.  If they had been 17-16 (about what you what expect with their run differential), they would still be a little short but within sniffing distance of a playoff spot.  It is a shame that a few more marginal moves were not made.  Andrew Miller would have been a nice addition when Casey Janssen was scuffling after the post-All-Star break stomach issues. Martin Prado would have been useful.  In the off-season, Scott Kazmir would have been a nice addition.  Budgetary constraints are probably the largest single reason for the lack of moves. It wasn't a huge amount of money involved...

Of course, other offseason moves that could've happened, like signing Ubaldo Jimenez could've made the year worse (78 ERA+) while other moves, like re-signing Josh Johnson would've just cost money with no benefit (DL all year).

The one-run game issue is a crapshoot.  Many have tried to find year-to-year or certain cause/effect situations for it but everything screams 'dumb luck' when it comes to one-run results.  For example, Baltimore in 2012 was 29-9 in one-run games; 2013 they were 20-31; 2014 they are 30-22.  Flip flop from great to bad to very good.  FYI: 2011 they were 22-22.  The Jays of 1993, one of the best here, was 23-22 despite having a lock down closer in Duane Ward and a fine supporting pen (Danny Cox, Mark Eichhorn, Mike Timlin, Tony Castillo, Al Leiter, Woody Williams).  That team had speed, power, the works.  Yet just barely over 500 in 1 run games. 

The big cost for the Jays is just the nightmares... Lawrie going down for the season at the same time as Francisco and Tolleson both turned into pumpkins, Encarnacion being hurt for most of August and hitting poorly when here (581 OPS), Lind the same (668), and guys getting a shot flopping in August (Kawaski, Gose, Reimold also sub 600 for OPS).  Buehrle having an ERA of 5.76 that month, Stroman over 6, Janssen the same.  So 2 starters and the closer, 3 key middle of the order hitters being hurt and ineffective, backups all flopping at once.  Perfect storm for a disaster.  Remove August and the Jays are 70-60 or a 87 win pace (84-72 right now and just 1 game back of KC, 2 from Oakland).

The big question is what to do for 2015 now.
Rotation:  do you trade someone to open a slot for Sanchez/Norris/Graveman/Nolan?  Do you pick up the option for Morrow/McGowan/Happ and hope they can fill it in?  Do you try to get a free agent signed?  Do you make a trade?

Bullpen: Janssen is gone, so who closes in 2015?  Cecil is the early favorite with Sanchez also up there if not starting.  Is a trade a smart idea to help out here, or do you mix and match kids into it with Drabek and Jenkins being ex-starters who might be useful in the pen ala Cecil/Janssen.

Infield: Lawrie at 2B or 3B? Keep or dump Francisco/Kawasaki/Goins/Tolleson/Valencia?  Trade or free agent to fill in at 3B or 2B?  Trade Reyes and his killer contract ($70 mil over next 3 years) if someone will take it?

Outfield: Cabrera & Rasmus are free agents with Rasmus gone for sure.  Who plays instead? Gose/Pillar/Pompey prime contenders or do you sign a free agent or trade for someone?

Catcher: If Dickey is traded then Thole is gone too, if not then Navarro/Thole is the combo with a need for a decent 3rd option in AAA.  Jimenez is in AAA but is he ready?

So lots to talk about this winter...think of it as a bright side.

I can't help but wonder what would've been if Rogers said F IT and gave Cano the contract that he signed with Seattle.

PS IMO Cano signs with the Jays in a heartbeat. I know the turf is an issue but he would've loved to play with Edwin, Reyes, Bautista, and Cabrera.

Well, in a $240 million heartbeat he'd sign.  No question Cano would've been AMAZING here and would've been a major shift in results.  However, $24 mil a year until 2023 is a bit much.

"I know the turf is an issue but he would've loved to play with Edwin, Reyes, Bautista, and Cabrera."

Wasn't something similar said about Ervin Santana loving to play with his Dominican buddies? Until the same money was offered in a better environment? And as John points out, that's a lot of cash for a lot of years.

Now Cano is signed long enough to probably not have to worry about his next contract (as opposed to Santana). If playing on turf for 4 years (at least) causes chronic issues, he's set for life financially, On the Jays side though, that contact would be a killer.

I'm not so sure it would be a killer. The Jays haven't made the playoffs in over 20 years, that signing may have gone them into the playoffs in year 1.

I think there's a very good chance that Cano would've earned that 10 year contract in the Rogers Centre, based on actual performance over the 10 year span I mean.

Until the same money was offered in a better environment?

I think there's a HUGE difference between a pitcher deciding between the AL East / Rogers Centre and the NL East / NL Park and Robinson Cano deciding between the Rogers Centre & Safeco Field. It's really not a great comparison at all.

The Jays need to switch to natural grass. As long as you're offering a substandard playing surface, you're always going to be at a disadvantage. It makes it harder to attract and keep players, and harder to maintain a healthy roster. It's a lose-lose-lose situation. The only "win" seems to be that turf is cheaper and easier to maintain.

2018 greenfrog. If they leave the present dimensions, will be much easier to attract FA position players.

Here's a puzzler.   How does a batter as fast as Anthony Gose ground into 9 double plays in 257 PAs.?  He's only had 49 at-bats with a runner on first and less than 2 out.  He has struck out in 10 of those.  He's had 11 hits.  Presumably a few of his outs have been in the air.  You'd think that the great majority of the time that he put the ball on the ground with a runner on first, the defence would get only 1, but it hasn't turned out that way.  

Last year, he grounded into 5 double plays in 153 PAs.  That would be a substantial number for a right-handed lumbering slugger.

Unconventional lineup tonight for Gibbons.  Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lind, Kawasaki, Pompey, Gose, Thole, Goins. I guess Gibbons was re-reading The Book and noticed that the 5th place hitter leads off innings more often than any other place in the lineup other than the leadoff hitter.  Go Munenori!

Quite the bottom 5! Should be fun vs. El Rey.

Probably due to his trying to hit ground balls to 'take advantage' of his speed.  That's my guess for why Gose hits so many DP's.

How does a batter as fast as Anthony Gose ground into 9 double plays in 257 PAs.?

He's also reached 1st on a fielder's choice 9 times.

I would like to see some objective measurement of how fast players like Gose are, in comparison to other players. Bill James used to use 3 offensive stats to make estimates of a player's speed - SB%, double plays grounded into, and triples (in addition to defensive range, and he also looked at runs scored as a % of times on base less HR's, but I don't have that info). Gose has a career SB% including majors and minors of 73.1%, which is good, but not great. He has 57 career triples in 3,519 plate appearances (mlb + minors), about 9-10 per full season. His minor league GIDP numbers aren't as high as his mlb numbers, 32 in the equivalent of about 5 full seasons, but that still seems a little high for a lefty hitter who can really motor. I suspect that Gose, while undoubtedly very fast, isn't as fast as some people think he is. It would be nice to see a race with Gose, Pompey, some of the top SB leaders like Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, etc. Pompey's minor league numbers show he has a higher SB%, a lower GIDP rate and a higher triples rate than Gose, despite the fact he sometimes is hitting from the right side, which costs you a step or two out of the box. On the other hand, Gose's numbers for range factor per game in the minors as a CF tend to be a little higher than Pompey's as a CF.

That was hit with Authority.

It took two nights, but BINGO.

Gose was timed at 3.81 home to 1st on a bunt single during 2012 spring training. That was fast.

I think that he's quicker out of the box bunting than swinging away. With the drag bunt, he's beginning that first step while contact is being made.

It doesn't matter much, but this is fun. 

Gose was timed at 3.81 home to 1st on a bunt single during 2012 spring training. That was fast.

It's not nearly as fast as I would have expected for a guy with his speed. (Mantle was clocked at 3.5 from the RH box, 3.1 from LH box - that was hand timing, of course.) Today Suzuki gets down the line quicker. Makes me think Gose's first step out of the box isn't that smooth.

Y'know, this has to be a super-painful series for Mariner fans.  Giving up double digit runs two games in a row including a King Felix start.  Just 1 1/2 out of a playoff slot coming into this series and now are looking at being 3 games out after today (KC is winning, Oakland 1 ahead of KC) instead of 1 game out had they won both games.

Btw, with KC winning (7-0 as I type this) the race will be officially over tonight but at least it will be fighting at the end - too little too late, but not laying down at least.

Watching Joey and Edwin absolutely rake is fun yet frustrating when we are in the situation we're in.

Checking the USS Mariner they are very depressed tonight.  Their GM has failed to find any hitters whatsoever thus they are going to finish just short this year.  Seager, Cano, and Saunders are good for their positions (and good period) but the rest of the lineup leaves a LOT to be desired with just Morrison (at 1B having a 103 OPS+) and Chris Taylor (102 OPS+ at SS but it took a long  time for them to figure out he was a good option) over 100 for OPS+ among any players.  A Team OPS+ of 94 coming into today and I doubt 6 hits and 2 runs will help. 

As I have said a few times this year, Bautista has been a joy to watch.  The big number for him is 151.  That's the number of games he has played.  When he plays 150 games, he's one of the best players in the league. 

Nice to see the Royals headed for the postseason after such a long drought. They might not be a powerhouse, but their GM managed to put together a "good enough" team on a relatively low payroll.

So for the Royals to clinch the magic number is 3 over Seattle, 1 on the Yankees, and 1 on Cleveland.  Jays are now 1 behind the Yankees for 2nd in the AL East.  The Jays could pretty much eliminate Seattle with 2 more wins (would then need just one KC win).

Yeah, not what we wanted, but 2nd in the AL East and eliminating the Mariners would at least be something. 

The frustrating thing about that is the Jays actually have a better run differential than the Royals. In just a very slightly alternate universe, the Jays are that close to clinching a playoff spot.

The Jays should be the WC winner this season. No doubt in my mind. If Alex did anything to fix the depth on this team prior to the season, it may have happened. Just really frustrating. So many things went right and the team still looks like it will finish around .500.

Hopefully Alex does not sit on his hands this winter like he did last year.

"....Just really frustrating. So many things went right and the team still looks like it will finish around .500...."

I really don't get this kind of criticism.  The translation is:  "the Jays did so much better than anyone expected, yet they didn't quite make the playoffs, so now we're angry at the team."  Would people be happier if the Jays finished 4th or 5th in the division, as most fans were predicting?  Would it somehow be a less frustrating season if nothing went right?  Why is it frustrating if "so many things went right" this year?   Surely, if so many things went right, it suggests that the Jays are a team on the verge of a breakthrough.  (Unless you're seriously suggesting that the individual successes in 2014 were merely flukes that cannot be repeated.)

The Jays didn't quite make it this year, but it was a very strong stepping-stone for future success.  The rotation is vastly improved.  The hitting remains strong.  Bautista and Encarnacion are showing zero signs of slowing down, and we have every right to expect great seasons from them again next season.  The rest of the lineup, from Navarro to Cabrera, was better than expected, despite several key injuries this year.  The bullpen had problems, but that's the easiest thing to fix in 2015.  And there are so many great young players in the Jays organization now -- just add up all the players who are 25 or younger, which is half of the rotation plus several hitters, plus the emerging prospects like Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Graveman etc. 

As for the "frustration" of not acquiring more players at the trade deadline or the off-season:  I fully agree with John Northey about the significant probability of failure if the Jays had made aggressive moves to acquire big-name players at the trading deadline or in the last off-season.  It's easy to pick out a couple of traded players who did well for their new teams (ignoring the $24-million that Prado, for example, would cost in future commitments).  But if you're going to cherry-pick the winners, don't forget that most of the big-name free agents and trade-deadline acquisitions were not exactly huge successes for their new teams -- and the cost could have been a key young player like a Stroman or Sanchez, or a financial commitment of $60-million or $80-million in five-year deals which could have tied the team's hands for the future.  Don't use hindsight to pick out the players that the Jays should have acquired -- look also at the players that failed, at a big cost.

Yes, it's frustrating. Many, including me, pegged this team to be .500 prior to the season, so in that sense it's not too shocking, but so many things went in their favor that they should have been better than that.

Both Wild Cards could conceivably finish with fewer than 90 wins and the East as a whole was probably the weakest its been in 15 years. The Jays were leading the division by 6 games in June, and the Wild Card by some 2-3 games in late-July. Their core players are in their 30's (so not getting any younger) and their best player just had his first healthy season in 3 years. No major injuries except to Edwin (and he only missed a month) and Lawrie (who never stays healthy anyway), and the rotation was not only healthy nearly all season, but also got one of the best rookie seasons in Jays history from Stroman. Reyes had over 600 PA. Melky had a bounce back season. The things that went wrong were probably forseeable except for the bullpen implosion (and bullpens are highly unreliable year to year anyway), and that's what makes it more frustrating. Adding depth and a 2B in the off-season was common sense, yet nothing was done then, or at the deadline, to fix any of those issues.

I can't see how this was anything but a disappointing season. I'm not going to judge 2015's chances until I see what Alex does with the roster, but saying this wasn't a missed opportunity is being too kind. If the AL (East and in general) is this winnable again any time soon, I'll consider it a shock.

I too am disappointed, so let me vent. HOW does Boston win a World Series between 2 dreadful seasons?
I am OK now. The window of contention for Texas looked like it has slammed shut. OR are they going to win the World Series next year?

If you're the Jays and you can sign 1 major free agent, do you go with Melky Cabrera, Russ Martin, or J.J. Hardy? I can see arguments for all 3. Tho the Hardy argument is of course dependent on convincing Reyes to move off short.

One issue with Gose's hitting into double plays I haven't seen mentioned is his lack of contact. Managers often start the runner at first when guys with at least some contact skills are at the plate. On balls that would normally be a DP, sometimes the only play is to 1st,and sometimes even if the out is still made at 2nd the runner is able to disrupt the throw to 1st. Gose can't be trusted to put on a hit and run.

If you're the Jays and you can sign 1 major free agent, do you go with Melky Cabrera, Russ Martin, or J.J. Hardy? I can see arguments for all 3. Tho the Hardy argument is of course dependent on convincing Reyes to move off short.

There are a few positions where you could make related moves.  What you are able to obtain in related moves would probably be the key factor, and might in fact open the financial room to sign two of them.

Some reconfiguration of talent is, to my mind, necessary.  But, as usual, I am optimistic despite the disappointment of 2014.  I like what I see from Stroman, Hutchison (whose issues seem quite fixable to me) and Pompey.  I see the bones of an excellent ball club if important areas of weakness in the middle of the diamond are shored up and better on-field management is brought in. 

If I could sign one free agent it would be Martin. Excellent defensive catcher, would have a positive effect of the pitching staff (pitch framing), and has been worth 4-5 wins even when he doesn't hit like he has this season. I'd go 5/75 with him easily (we would have to overpay).

Hardy would be my second choice, but Reyes probably won't move off short, so you're basically signing Hardy and trading Reyes, which I'd have no problem with, but Reyes will be tough to trade with how stacked the SS free agent market is (Hanley, Hardy, Lowrie).

Another oddity about Gose.  His infield hit % this year is 5.6%, which is below league average and below team average.  Perhaps that is bad luck.

The big question is how do you shore up the holes in the lineup? It's great to say sign some major free agents but that has not been a recent achievement of the Jays. Do you think the dollars will be available? Do you think the free agents will want to come here? I have two no's for my answers.

So how do you plug the holes without a major free agent signing? You sign a lesser free agent or you trade from your roster. I will be shocked if the Jays sign anything over a 3 year/$10M a year free agent.

I wonder if the Mets might be wanting Reyes back?  Their current SS is young (24) but has a lifetime 81 OPS+ after a 49 last year and an 84 this year.  In a 'contract for contract' trade would they consider sending David Wright over here (paid $2 mil less a year for the next 3 years, but under contract through 2020 after a 101 OPS+ season but has a 134 lifetime OPS+).  That would push Lawrie to 2B, Wright to 3B, and then the Jays go with a defense only SS (Goins, Kawasaki, Diaz backups to whoever they can sign) and the infield becomes very strong on defense.  The Jays could eat Colon's contract ($11 mil) as well and send a prospect to the Mets then do a trade of Buehrle to someone to free up salary and rotation space.

Not sure if that would work well - but it would be interesting and would improve infield defense but would the Mets want to go for it?  Probably not unless Reyes is really missed for his 'leadership' (always a fuzzy thing to factor in).

I am pretty optimistic about 2015. The step forward by some key prospects (Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Pompey, Norris, Graveman) has improved the outlook for the ballclub, as their progress means that the team has more flexibility and fewer acquisitions need to be made. While Lawrie has had trouble staying healthy, I expect a better year from him next year. The Jays still have some solid above-average or elite veterans on the club.

I've long since been an advocate of signing Martin. I think someone will likely outbid the Jays for him, though (assuming the Jays have interest).

Overall, while there have been some missteps by the FO, I think AA deserves credit for resisting the temptation to deal the above young players for a short-term fix. He's learning, I think.

I agree with Mike Green that the current on-field management leaves something to be desired. Probably Gibbons stays, though (inertia and devil you know, etc.).

I will be shocked if the Jays sign anything over a 3 year/$10M a year free agent.

Gerry, you probably know a lot more than I do about the mindset of ownership but I confess to being a little puzzled.  The Jays are committed to a whole whack of cash in 2015, but essentially Reyes' salary and nothing else in 2016 and 2017.  If Russ Martin (say) was willing to sign for Toronto for 3/36 spread out 10, 13 and 13, would that be such a problem?  They've got one more year of Bautista and it seems to me that the club has two choices- fish or cut bait.  If they are going to cut bait, they might as well do it now and do it fully. Obviously, I would prefer that they fish.

Probably Gibbons stays, though

Jon Heyman seems to think so.

Heyman reports that unnamed Jay higher-ups consider Gibbons' in-game management skills as "excellent". Will someone say that for attribution?

Man, I hate gossip.

Man, I hate gossip.

Yeah, I was reluctant to link to a Heyman piece. Not someone I hold in the highest regard.

2015?

I see it as a transition year - unfortunately.

Cabrera is a MUST sign - OR a MUST REPLACE. IF - we re-sign him or replace him (his bat in particular) all we've done is tread water. I don't think he'll be resigned - I also have very little confidence his bat will be replaced. Rogers gave AA a chance - Rogers went way outside its comfort zone to allow AA to make the "big trade" - it didn't get us to the promise land. They'll be very wary of giving the Jay's anymore rope - they feel they've already been hung once. To move forward in 2015 we NEED Cabrera (or replacement bat) PLUS another Cabrera bat. The only possible in house "bat" might be Lawrie. Ya - I know, fat chance he'll mature enough to be a serious contributor and very little chance he'll be able to stay healthy. Sigh.

The window for EE and Bautista is open in 2015 - but - the young pitching is still a few years away from being able to make a major impact. However, Stroman, Hutch, Sanchez, Graveman, Norris (really looking forward to Thursday's game), Osuna and Castro are by far the best colection of starting pitching prospects I've ever seen with the Jay's since I seriously started following them in 1983. In fact they - on their own - are probably the best group of prospects I've ever seen the team have at any one time.

Five of these guys, or four and an outside Ace, will be the core of our team's pitching for 10 years. In 2015 we could have Stroman, Hutch, The Dickster, Buehrle and Happ. Not too much new upside there. Dickey's $20,000,000, Buehrle's $12,000,000 and Romero's (remember him?) $7,500,000 comes to $39,500,000 (lets just call it $40 million - between us friends) of more or less useless spending as far as getting the Jays to the post season in 2015. Reyes' $22,000,000 may even be seen - in some circles - as being a tad too much for a SS with an OK bat and the range of Adam Lind (OK, OK, lets say Lind - IF - he took steroids). SO - $52,000,000 under performing money - all in just one year - 2015.

Our only chance in 2015 is if AA can convince Rogers to go in deeper with the argument that after 15 our payroll will fall by 40 big ones AND the kid pitchers will be seriously contributing so any moves we make for 15 will only be a serious cost for one year. I'd do that if I was Rogers. I'd bet my new Blackberry Passport that they won't. They don't need to - they know in 16 - 17 - 18 the "Kid Arms" will have TO excited - even if they whistle past the graveyard in 2015. Sigh.

"....I can't see how this was anything but a disappointing season. I'm not going to judge 2015's chances until I see what Alex does with the roster, but saying this wasn't a missed opportunity is being too kind. If the AL (East and in general) is this winnable again any time soon, I'll consider it a shock...."

Again, I disagree with this gloom-and-doom assessment of the 2014 season.  It was clearly a big step ahead from 2013, with many signs of future promise.  Of course it was frustrating to see the Jays get reasonably close to the playoffs and not manage to close the gap.  I'm not disagreeing with the feelings of frustration -- I'm disagreeing with the underlying assumption by some fans that 2014 was some fluke opportunity that can never be repeated.  The division is often "winnable" and the playoffs are even more "winnable" if you include the two EC spots, as you should.   It's not a once-in-a-decade phenomenon.

Why should we blindly assume that every other AL East competitor will surge ahead in 2015? You can't make that assumption.  Some will improve, some will fall back -- that's the nature of the game -- and opportunities will always be there if the Jays play well.  Just ask the Orioles, who didn't merely squeak into the division title because of a collapse of every other team.  They won the division because they improved drastically.  It's not impossible.

Moreover, I don't think anyone wants the Jays to succeed only by fluking into the playoffs when the division is "winnable."  They're not aiming to scrape into the second WC spot with 88 wins in 2015, they're aiming to win the division, and why not?  Why couldn't they improve by 8 or 10 wins in 2015?  Every year, several teams do that, and there's no reason that this is impossible for the Jays.   To call 2014 a disappointing season is only true if you judge every season as "playoffs or nothing." 

The only way I see Martin being signed is if Dickey/Thole are traded.  That would open the hole in the rotation for Sanchez/etc. while saving some money and opening a slot for a 2 catcher system with Navarro/Martin where both could be expected to hit in the 95-105 OPS+ range in a mix and match situation.  I cannot imagine anyone giving a 5/$75 deal to Martin as he is entering his age 32 season and never has made $10 mil in a season despite being a free agent twice.  I doubt any team is silly enough to think he is a 139 OPS+ player going forward and will bid on him as the 99 OPS+ player he was before this year - roughly a 3 WAR player I'd say who is on the decline years now so $12 mil a year might be reasonable over 3 years.  Bidding much more than that is a silly move imo.  If some club decides he 'turned a corner' this year and bids $75 mil over 5 then I say to Martin 'sign with them' and hope it won't be AA in a panic move.

FYI: Bautista has an option (club option) for 2016 at $14 mil ($1 mil buyout), Dickey has a 2016 option at $12 mil ($1 mil buyout), Encarnacion $10 mil (2 mil buyout), Lind has a '15 option ($7.5 vs $1 buyout) and '16 ($8 mil, $0.5 buyout), Izturis $3 mil ($1 mil buyout).  So a few guys there for 2016 including 2 very important ones and 2 who could be important. 

"....No major injuries except to Edwin (and he only missed a month) and Lawrie (who never stays healthy anyway), and the rotation was not only healthy nearly all season, but also got one of the best rookie seasons in Jays history from Stroman...."

Not true at all.  Lind was also injured for a significant period of time, and Morrow was out for most of the season, while Janssen was injured in the crucial early weeks of the season when the bullpen was losing games. Janssen's absence probably cost the Jays several losses, since his absence coincided with the collapse of several other relievers.  If you're going to count Stroman's emergence as some kind of unrepeatable fluke, then you have to also consider the lengthy injury to Morrow.  In fact, also include the implosion of Ricky Romero, which continues to hurt the Jays because they're still paying him a hefty salary and they were counting on him (years ago) as a rotation mainstay for years to come.  And include the collapse of Santos and Delabar -- two key relievers whose absence was felt.  The Jays certainly didn't have miraculous luck in 2014.  They suffered the loss (by injury or implosion) of a bunch of key players whom they had counted on as 2014 mainstays.

John Northey, I agree 5/75 is excessive for Martin, but he is going to be highly valued on the market. He is a stat-oriented GM's dream. Any three year offer will likely be matched or exceeded by another club. Even though he is Canadian, the Jays will still have to grossly overpay to land him, but maybe the Canadian aspect mixed with an overpayment will be enough to get him (not that I expect the Jays to even try).

I think he is worth it. Overpayment? Sure. But he was a 4 win player when his offense was much worse in 2013. They wouldn't need him to hit like he did this season. Paying him $15M per to put up a WAR comparable to Bautista and Edwin isn't outlandish. If you like pitch framing stats, then his value increases.

If the Jays could trade Navarro and Buehrle to save money for Martin, it would be a net positive by a huge margin, IMO.

Lind is a 1-1.5 WAR player. Yes it sucked not to have him for a month but he was hardly a huge loss in comparison to Edwin and Lawrie.

Morrow was replaced by a much better starter (Stroman). I'm not sure why Morrow's injury was a big loss in your eyes. If he stayed healthy, then we probably don't get Stroman's 100+ innings, and Morrow's performances prior to the injury were substandard. Stroman's been the best starter on the team by a significant margin.

Other teams had much more severe injuries than Toronto. Even the Orioles had injuries. It happens. The Jays injuries were actually mild, especially compared to their recent history. Hell, the Yankees had way more serious injuries than the Jays (they lost almost every good starter on their team) and still may finish ahead of Toronto.

I'm amazed you can look at this season with any sort of optimism. I know you are the resident optimist, but this was a golden opportunity wasted. For a team with a two decade long playoff drought, that's very disappointing.

To call 2014 a disappointing season is only true if you judge every season as "playoffs or nothing."

The whole point of increasing the payroll and acquiring Reyes, Buehrle, Dickey, et al. two years ago was to turn the team into a contender. After those moves, being a contending team was a legitimate expectation for fans, especially since that was also the expectation of the team's management.

From a John Lott article dated April 28, 2013, quoting Alex Anthopoulos:

“It’s going to get better and I still expect us to be a contending team. I don’t think any of that changes at all. I don’t expect Jose Bautista to hit .190 or whatever it is over the course of the season. You look at last year, he hit .188 the first month and before he got hurt he was at .246 but that just tells you how much better he was after the first month. He was a lot better than .246. The same thing with our rotation as well. We’ve seen flashes of how good these guys can be, it’s a matter of putting it all together. There’s no question, we’ll go on a run, we’ll get hot and everyone is going to get excited again. But at the same time, when that happens, I’ll still be the one to say, we’re not going to play like this the entire year. You want to get on a roll, start to stabilize things a little bit and from that point, we still have a lot of games left. We’ll have another slump at some point down the road.” [Emphasis added]

From a Ben Nicholson-Smith article dated July 8, 2013, quoting Paul Beeston:

“If we don’t win this year, we win next year. If we don’t win next year, we win the year after. The goal is to win, and you have to build.”

This season was disappointing because the team failed to do the very thing it was assembled to do -- contend for the playoffs. The team was sold to fans as a contender, and in each of the past two years it has failed to live up to those expectations. While there are some positive takeaways from this season, fans have a perfectly legitimate reason to be disappointed with how things turned out.

After this season can we all agree to please remove Ricky Romero from the Batter's Box header?

Maybe put a Vancouver Canadian's pic up there in it's place as the C's get a lot of coverage here and 2JB has a ton of great pics.

"....I'm amazed you can look at this season with any sort of optimism...."

I'm shocked that you fail to see the emergence of so many great young players -- not just Stroman, but Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, Graveman etc -- as not deserving of any optimism.  You look at all of this, plus the Jays being within a few games of a WC slot, plus the great hitters, and you fail to see any optimism?  Incredible.

As for Morrow:  if you think the Jays were so lucky to have Stroman's emergence, it is simply irrational to say that the Jays didn't suffer a counterbalancing stroke of bad luck when Morrow was injured.  The Jays paid $16-million to Morrow and Romero this year -- and those two pitchers were 40 per cent of their planned rotation (based on plans when those contracts were signed) -- and they got virtually nothing for that investment.  It's all very nice to say you didn't expect anything from Morrow, but hindsight is always 20-20. Morrow was expected to be a mainstay of the rotation, and I defy you to find anyone who predicted that he would contribute nothing in 2013 and 2014.   People were just as excited about Morrow in 2011 (when he racked up 203 strikeouts) and in 2012 (when his ERA was 2.96) as we are about Stroman today. 

"...After those moves, being a contending team was a legitimate expectation for fans, especially since that was also the expectation of the team's management..."

Why is this worthy of italicization and lengthy quotations?  I think you're confusing "expectation" with "standard PR spin."   Management always predicts greatness and being contenders.  I've never yet seen any GM or president or owner who said:  "Yeah, we're unlikely to contend this year.  Don't bother buying tickets, don't bother watching us on TV, we're going to lose again."  Please correct me if you've seen comments like that from the Jays at any point in the past 20 years, or from any team in the AL East in the past decade.  Presidents and GMs always promise greatness.  It's spin.

CF, DeMarlo Hale, R.A. Dickey and a number of others on the club have publicly described the season as disappointing.  I am pretty sure that the brain trust will do so as well when the season ends.  They are, of course, speaking about the performance of the big club; as you say, it was a good year on the farm.

If we're now focusing on the word "disappointing," that's an entirely different question from what I was debating.  Any season can be called "disappointing" if a team fails to make the playoffs.  I don't disagree with that at all.  I was debating something else entirely:  I was challenging the claim that the Jays had missed their only winnable season, their only golden opportunity, and therefore we cannot be optimistic for the future.

Or, to put it another way:  it was disappointing that the Jays failed to make the playoffs, but the season wasn't disappointing if you look at the emergence of great young talent on the team in 2014.   It depends on what you choose to focus on.  I don't think Dickey or Hale or anyone else would say that the entire team was disappointing and all of the players were disappointing.  They're just saying that the final result -- number of wins, playoff status -- was disappointing.  That's a truism, not a debating point.

I think it all depends on what one is looking at...

Overall - yeah, it sucks to miss the playoffs again.  The Jays had a big lead at one time and were still in a playoff slot into August.  Playoff odds via MLB.com (nice chart they have) has the Jays at 86% on June 6th, 60% on July 31st, 29% on August 10th, 5% on September 10th, and finally 0% on Sept 17th.  That is better odds than we've seen here in a long, long time. 

Prospects: having Sanchez & Stroman emerge as potential top pitchers and Hutchison a solid one was nice, as are ML cup of coffee rookies Norris, Graveman and Nolan.  Of course in 1998 (a year when the Jays did really well and would've made the playoffs as structured now) we saw sub-25 year olds in the rotation named Halladay, Escobar, and Carpenter (21/22/23 years old respectively).  Hopefully this time the Jays do something good with the kids.

The Blue Jays were in first in June and in the playoffs at the all-star break. They're about to become the team with the longest playoff drought in North American professional sport. While I'm happy that the farm had a good year, this has been a disappointing season.

CF, I said 2014 was disappointing and a lot of things went right which makes the lack of success even more disappointing. That's only referencing 2014. What does that have to do with 2015-beyond? I never said anything about 2015 except that I can't judge the team's chances until I see what moves are made (not that I expect anything earth shattering).

The Jays have a $137M payroll, got a full season from Bautista and over 600 PA from Reyes, had good health in the rotation, and it will likely take less than 90 wins to win a WC spot. Yet the Jays are going to finish 5+ games back of a playoff spot. Seeing a few prospects progress is not going to take that disappointment away, not from me or anyone else who has suffered through the last 21 years. If you can look at this season with optimism for the future, that's fine, but looking at it with optimism in general is odd. It was the biggest blown chance in 20 years.

Why is this worthy of italicization and lengthy quotations? I think you're confusing "expectation" with "standard PR spin."

Was the increase in payroll and the acquisition of several big-name players also "standard PR spin"? Management publicly stated that they expected to contend, and the team's moves were clearly made with contention in mind. If the team had acquired Kevin Correia and Cody Ross to plug some holes until younger players were ready to take over, such statements could then fairly be classified as "standard PR spin," but instead the team acquired two of the top free agents from the previous offseason, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and a pitcher expected to be one of the most sought-after free agents the following offseason. The team also had two star sluggers who were in their prime, and the moves were made to take full advantage of their most productive years. I honestly don't see how anyone could reasonably suggest that contention wasn't what the club expected.

China fan, I don't think anyone other than you expected Morrow to be a mainstay of the rotation this season after all the injuries and inconsistency in his past.

How much time does Morrow have to miss before you consider his injuries as anything more than flukes or bad luck?

If the Jays could trade Navarro and Buehrle to save money for Martin, it would be a net positive by a huge margin, IMO.

Doesn't it depend on what comes back?  If one is looking at 2015 solely,  Navarro and Buehrle are owed a combined $25 million and would in my opinion have more value than Martin on his own.  Unless you think Buehrle is going to fall off the earth.  The deal might or might not have long-term benefit. Frankly, 5/75 is a lot for a catcher with over 1100 games behind the plate under his belt (or more accurately on his knees). 

If we're now focusing on the word "disappointing," that's an entirely different question from what I was debating. Any season can be called "disappointing" if a team fails to make the playoffs. I don't disagree with that at all.

But you said:

To call 2014 a disappointing season is only true if you judge every season as "playoffs or nothing."

I most certainly don't judge every season as "playoffs or nothing" because it's unreasonable to expect the team to make the playoffs every year. I don't think anyone here expects the team to do that. You were basically saying that 2014 could only be considered disappointing if a person had unrealistically high expectations for the team every year. That's a patently false claim.

I have found the 2013 and 2014 seasons disappointing because the moves that were supposed to turn this team a contender have thus far failed to achieve that goal. The payroll increase, trades, free agent signings and statements from the team's management created an expectation of playoff contention, and it's perfectly reasonable to be disappointed with the way the team has performed.

It is interesting to look at the team as a first half/second half team.

First half: backups doing amazing, Francisco 828 OPS, Tolleson 756.  Regulars fairly healthy and productive (250+ PA for Lawrie, Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista, EE, 198 for Lind, all over 700 for OPS). Navarro the only regular having serious issues at 657 for OPS (not counting sub 100 PA guys like Goins).

Second half: injuries (Lawrie 1 PA, Lind just recently crossing 100 PA, Cabrera getting hurt, Encarnacion), backups sucking hard (Francisco 561 OPS, Tolleson 524, Goins over 100 PA  482, Gose sub 600 as was Kawasaki, Valencia playing everyday with a 648 OPS)

No question the team was drastically different in each half and the 2nd half was hurt by injuries and those backups we were praising AA for finding in the first half falling apart.  Surprisingly the pitching didn't change much - first half a 4.07 ERA, 2nd half 4.04.  Something none of us would've predicted in the 2nd half is that just 5 guys starting with one more getting a start due to a suspension not an injury or ineffectiveness (although Hutch and Buehrle did have 5+ ERA's this half the other 3 were below 4).

No question a big challenge going forward is finding solid backups - especially for Lawrie.

"Doesn't it depend on what comes back? If one is looking at 2015 solely, Navarro and Buehrle are owed a combined $25 million and would in my opinion have more value than Martin on his own. Unless you think Buehrle is going to fall off the earth. The deal might or might not have long-term benefit. Frankly, 5/75 is a lot for a catcher with over 1100 games behind the plate under his belt (or more accurately on his knees)."

I'm looking at it from a WAR perspective. Martin, even when he hit .226-.327-.377 in 2013 had a WAR of 4.1. This season it is at 5.3 with obviously unsustainable offensive numbers for him. That's not including pitch framing which would greatly increase his value (and decrease Navarro's). That's an elite player who is around the same age as Bautista and Encarnacion. It might be unreasonable to assume he'll be a 4-5 win player in each of the next five seasons, but in free agency you have to overpay in years to get a player who you otherwise have no shot at. If Martin gives you 2-3 more very good to great seasons, it'll be worth the contract. According to Fangraphs he has been worth close to $50M in Pittsburgh, and that's in only two years.

I just think Martin is the only free agent that would make a superstar level difference, not only defensively but also for the pitching staff (if you value pitch framing.....and seeing Navarro everyday this year has made me appreciate its value). Any offense he provides would be gravy. Plus, since he is a catcher in his 30's, he won't require a Cano-type of deal in terms of length. I think five years, while 1-2 years too long, is a reasonable overpay to get him to sign.

I would love Martin to come here, but don't see anyone giving him a 5/$75 deal.  3/$36 to 4/$50 I see as possible but would be scared to go 4 years myself (ages 32-35). 

FanGraphs doesn't factor in pitch framing but still has for defense 14.6 runs for Martin vs 5.7 for Navarro (nearly a full win difference based on stolen bases and passed balls primarily). 
Baseball Reference does factor in pitch framing, has Martin as saving just 2 runs via pitch framing, 5 overall vs Navarro -2 overall, -1 runs for pitch framing.  So a 7 run spread or nearly 1 win.
StatCorner has its own tool (more in depth it seems) for pitch framing giving Martin 11.4 runs this year vs Navarro -20.1 which fits what we all feel (a 3 win spread).  Using 2007 to 2014 data we get Martin ranging from a low of 9.7 to a peak of 30.8 vs Navarro -20.1 to a high of 4.6 (2009 in Tampa).

So neither method shoots Martin way ahead due to defense, and the pitch framing at BR doesn't show a 'wow' factor for Martin.  Of course, it also has Jose Molina (who is well known for pitch framing) as never saving more than 5 runs in a year due to it.

For the changes a few of the 'ideal' signings would've made...

Getting Ervin Santana to sign: this was a lock it seemed until a last second effort by Atlanta changed it.  If signed what would've changed? We'd have never had McGowan in the rotation - he was a last minute addition after Romero flopped.  Without McGowan and adding Santana what would've happened (if all else stayed the same, not factoring in McGowan in pen instead of someone else).  Also not factoring in that the order of pitchers would've probably been different too.  8 McGowan starts,

1. Jays lost 7-3, Santana in start 1 threw 8 shutout innings, I'd say there is one win gained
2. Jays win 2-0, McGowan 6 1/3 0 runs, Santana 6 IP 1 R, still would've been a 2-1 win, so no change
3. Jays lose 9-5, McGowan gives up 3 runs in 4 innings, Santana 7 IP 1 run, might still be a loss as pen gave up 6 runs in the 9th between Delabar/Santos (closer at time)/Happ
4. Jays lose 10-8, McGowan gives up 6 runs in 4 innings, Santana 4 runs in 6 2/3 IP - 9 runs were given up by McGowan/Redmond who came in due to early exit, odds are this would be a win gained
5. Jays lose 10-7, McGowan 3 runs in 6 IP, Santana the exact same (3 runs, 6 IP) so no change the pen still blows it.
6. Jays win 7-2, McGowan 7 IP 1 R, Santana 0 R in 7 IP so same result
7. Jays lose 4-3, McGowan 5 IP 2 R, Santana 5 IP 5 R so same end result just less painful as the Jays would lose by more
8. Jays lose 15-4, McGowan 4 IP 4 R, Santana 7 IP 6 R so same end result but less pen stress.
   
   ---- McGowan pulled from rotation and replaced by Hendriks but his next start was on Happ's day which means Santana would've taken Happ's slot and Hendriks starts replaced by Happ at this point (Happ came in for Morrow)
   
   
9. Jays win 7-4, Happ 5 IP 4 R, Santana 5 IP 6 R, tighter game but Jays still win 7-6
10. Jays win 3-1, Happ 7 IP 0 R, Santana 6 IP 3 R, Jays lose a game due to the switch here
11. Jays lose 6-1, Happ 7 2/3 IP 6 R, Santana 7 IP 0 R, might have been a 1-0 win
12. Jays win 7-3, Happ 6 1/3 IP 3 R, Santana 6 1/3 6 R, tight but still a win 7-6

Getting a bit tired here but so far through 12 starts we see Santana adding 3 wins, costing 1.  Of course, the big change is Happ would've still been in the rotation instead of Morrow, McGowan in the pen from day one, and maybe no sign of Stroman at any point which could've made an even bigger difference.  Maybe this winter someone will be up to the challenge of seeing what a difference it could've made.

It's just past 8:30 and we're in the eighth inning. Mark Buehrle, ladies and gentlemen.

2 hours, 10 strikeouts and 1 Enos Slaughter for the satisfying victory. Old school special.

2 hours, 10 strikeouts and 1 Enos Slaughter for the satisfying victory. Old school special

That's a Mark Buehrle kind of post.

There's no active minor league thread (but I imagine that the crew is working on the top 30 list right about now).  So, I'll link to John Sickels' review of the Blue Jay system here.  It's a little spare- describing Barreto, Lugo and Urena as all thriving is a bit oversimplified. 

The talk of Martin is nice but what makes anyone think he will come here? He has already passed on the opportunity once, and if I recall correctly he turned down the same or more money he eventually received.

When he went to the Pirates, Hodgie?  I don't recall hearing that at all, but that might be my memory.  As I recall it, the Jays weren't interested in Martin because they had Arencibia...

No Mike, when he went to the Yankees. I don't recall the numbers and will have to do some searching but it was during the 2010 offseason.

I recall that it was when he went to the Yankees as well. I also recall that the Jays wanted him to play a bit of third base too.

Some players prefer to play for the Yankees for understandable reasons- chance to win, profile etc.  I am not sure that Martin would have felt the same way if the choice was the Pirates or Reds or Indians (say).  The Pirates are saying that they really want to keep Martin and so might break the bank. 

This article from 2010 suggests the Jays were looking at Martin as a backup or part-time catcher, and maybe having him play other positions as well.

It's not surprising Martin signed with a team where he'd be the #1 catcher. Most players would prefer to start.

That is possible Mike, although that is kind of my point. Too often free agents acquisitions are discussed as a fait accompli with the only possible reasoning offered for failure of said acquisitions being front office incompetence or frugality. When your native sons view you as only a soft landing spot in the face of no better options dreaming on players like Martin seems like a waste of bandwidth.

Now perhaps if the Jays had offered Martin the opportunity to play shortstop from time to time a deal could have been brokered.

Martin will go where the money and security is. That's how nearly all the free agents operate. The Jays haven't overpaid for a free agent since Burnett and Ryan, so almost ten years ago, but if they had money and really wanted Martin, then they could get him. Just a matter of whether they would be willing to pay the price.

I think the upgrade from Navarro to Martin would be huge, especially for a team that figures to miss the playoffs by 5 games.

You could could probably count Maicer Izturis as the most recent overpayment for a free agent.

"The Jays haven't overpaid for a free agent since Burnett and Ryan, so almost ten years ago, but if they had money and really wanted Martin, then they could get him."

I can justify over-paying for the last piece in a potential championship puzzle. In any other situation I fail to see the prudence in that strategy and one would think that history, replete with astonishingly poor contract decisions made under the guise of competing, would serve as a stark lesson to learn from.

Personally, I think the Jays would be better served by working with Navarro to improve his framing and allocating resources to other areas of need.

Good point Hodgie - could you improve pitch framing for a catcher with really, really good coaching?  Spend a few hundred grand on top coaches and get ex-umpires and a pitch f/x machine together and go nuts working him - far cheaper than getting a different guy in if it could work and Navarro figures to hit similar to Martin anyways (assuming this year is a massive fluke for Martin of course).

Framing can be worked on but the organization and Navarro would first have to recognize the problem. I'm not sure they will, especially since Navarro's bat (the reason they got him in the first place most likely) was solid this season. Navarro's work ethic has been questioned before, as well.

I am not sure why Navarro's performance with the bat would preclude the team from recognizing that his framing could be improved. Unless we are now assuming the team is ignorant of all the information readily available? Sincere question as I have not seen it - where has Navarro's work ethic been questioned?

Could Navarro become a quieter receiver?  Probably.  He's over 30 and it is the kind of skill that catchers sometimes improve on later in their career.  I don't know if there was some work ethic issue early in his career, but all I see evidence of is a good work ethic now.  Personally, I am more concerned about his durability.  His workload was reduced with both Kratz and Thole around this year, but I really don't see him catching 125 games a year. 

It may very well be that the club can more efficiently upgrade in the middle infield than behind the plate. 

Today's lineup: Pompey 7, Kawasaki 4, Encarnacion 0, Lind 3, Valencia 5, Kottaras 2, Pillar 9, Gose 8, Goins 6.  Norris pitching. Day game after a night game and the club having defeated the Mariners 3 straight, so Gibbons did not feel it was wrong to rest Bautista, Reyes and Navarro on the same day.  I agree.

Today's lineup...

Aside from Kottaras, isn't that lineup as good as the team's defense gets (with Lawrie hurt)? Or does Rasmus slide in ahead of any of those outfielders?

Close.  In my opinion, the best defensive lineup has Pompey in CF, Gose in RF and Pillar in LF.   Rasmus would probably be better defensively than Pillar in left-field if healthy and if he had played the position before. 

Here is a snippet regarding Navarro's exit from the Dodgers (work ethic related).

"It's not a big thing, really," Mattingly said. "We just didn't feel like D fit into what we're trying to do. I don't want to badmouth D because I like D. He didn't give us any problems in the locker room, and he didn't cause us any (other) problems. But I'm a guy who believes in work. It's very simple. I believe you have to work, work, work."

Mattingly acknowledged that he had asked Navarro to improve in whatever area he felt was lacking and that Navarro's failure to do so led to the decision. Mattingly also said the decision might have been made earlier if the team's other catcher, Rod Barajas, hadn't spent the final month of the first half on the disabled list."

Navarro does take an interest in things other than baseball- like the World Cup.  That might be a distraction as far as Mattingly was concerned. 

Thanks SK. Mattingly (Puig), Williams (Harper), Gibson (Upton)..... Guess I tend to cast a wary eye on assessments made by card carrying members of the Old School Gritty Ballplayers Club.

I wonder if Navarro's portly status is somehow deemed evidence for absence of a work ethic. If so, is that fair? Should catchers, perhaps, be "allowed" to be fat and not necessarily held to the same weight room expectations of their peers?

Buck and Tabler extended for FIVE MORE YEARS???!!!!! This is the worst signing in franchise history. An absolute joke.

Buck and Tabler extended for FIVE MORE YEARS???!!!!! This is the worst signing in franchise history. An absolute joke.

I'll guess that it will turn out better than the Erik Hanson signing.  There's always the mute button.

I know I've said this before but can't SN put the game on SN1 or SN360 with just crowd noise and no broadcasters?

I'd love to see them give this a trial run.

I'll guess that it will turn out better than the Erik Hanson signing.

I'll see your Erik Hanson, and bid one Ken Dayley.

I was just told that MLBTV doesn't blackout Jays games in BC. Can anybody confirm or deny? This would be one way to avoid those two.

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I like Buck. I'm not entirely sure why. I'd probably find him intolerable if he were broadcasting for another team.

Tabler is inoffensive to me. He says absolutely nothing, but I can mentally tune him out.

Could be better, could be worse. I just take what they say with 2 or 3 grains of salt.

Yeah well if you tune out Tabler then you don't get to learn which players are big and strong.

There was a lot to like today even if the club lost- Norris and Graveman pitching well, Pompey reaching base three times and Pillar reaching the second deck. 

September stats. I'm pretty sure that to save money, the Jays will be running out most, if not all, of these young players next year. It may work out, but some of them might also end up in the majors before they're ready. It's the Blue Jays way.

On a different note, I'm starting to feel better about a couple of my assessments from a couple of years ago (giving a slight edge to Sanchez over Syndergaard and liking the Jays' side of the Dickey trade). Things were looking iffy there for a while, but it's not so clear-cut anymore on either front. I see d'Arnaud has been sidelined with an (unspecified) injury again.

Graveman is an interesting guy to watch. He sinks and moves the ball well and the cutter gives him two fastballs where one moves in and one away from the hitter. I am not sure if he is a major league starter, mainly because I haven't been able to see him use all his pitches as a reliever, but he could be a good major league reliever soon.

Derek Jeter, what else is the to say?

Now that is a great way to retire.  Walk off single to win the game.  Outside of doing that in the playoffs there isn't a much better way to go.

That was the second game Jeter has played - in his entire friggin' career - with his team eliminated from the postseason. Two games. In twenty years.

That was the second game Jeter has played - in his entire friggin' career - with his team eliminated from the postseason. Two games. In twenty years. And look how well he performed - he's been crumbling under the pressure all along.

"That was the second game Jeter has played - in his entire friggin' career - with his team eliminated from the postseason."

I'm pretty sure that should read "second Home game...". In 2008 the Yankees finished 6 games out of the playoffs, but finished up their season on the road.

Seeing Jeter celebrated like that makes me wish the Jays had held on to and had success with Halladay and Delgado. Two homegrown stars who should have stayed in Toronto for their entire careers. Unfortunately, lack of team success and ownership with a different agenda made that hard to do.

Interesting at BR as they list the top 20 by WAR for each club on the franchise pages with photos.  Top 5 are Stieb, Halladay, Fernandez, Delgado, Bautista.  What do all 5 have in common?  None spent their whole career here.  In fact, none of the top 20 did (#20 being Ernie Whitt with 19 WAR).  For the Yankees the top 5 are Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, DiMaggio and Jeter - All but Ruth played their full career as Yankees.  Their #20 is Graig Nettles with 44 WAR which would put him 3rd on the Jays list.  Stieb's 57 would tie him at #8 on the Yankee list (whitey Ford, Mariano Rivera). Nearly a Blue Jays Ron Guidry is #16 with 48 WAR.  A-Rod is the only active (sort of) player on the Yankee list now.  Bautista and Rios are the only active players on the Jays top 20 (Vernon Wells made $21 million without swinging a bat this year - he had an 81 OPS+ post-Blue Jays career and made just over $89 million).

Wonder what teams have their #1 all time playing right now?  The Rays with Evan Longoria were an easy guess (their only retired number is Wade Boggs #12 for his 2 years 94 OPS+ time with them).  Anyone up to looking for more?

I'm pretty sure that should read "second Home game...".

Nope. Jeter hurt his hand at the end of the 2008 season, and only played in one of the Yankees final five games.

Way too much hype for my taste.  A bad aging ballplayer playing almost every day on a rich team that narrowly misses the playoffs for the second straight year.  Raise another glass of champagne and toast the great Derek Jeter!

/ Curtis Mudgeon

An interesting comparison between the guy who is still kicking on the HOF ballot (Don Mattingly) and the guy who will easily go in first ballot (Derek Jeter).  Mattingly started playing in 1982 - from 1976 to 1981 the Yankees made the playoffs 5 of 6 years.  Mattingly retired after the 1995 season, the one and only time the Yankees made the playoffs in his career (by 1 1/2 games via the first wildcard).  With Jeter he started in that 1995 season and retires this year having missed the playoffs twice, 2008 (they would've had the 2nd wildcard had it existed) and this year.

Wonder if anyone was called up this year who might be the next great Yankee who will end up having a Mattingly career (almost never reaching the playoffs) or a Jeter one (almost never missing).

I was just told that MLBTV doesn't blackout Jays games in BC. Can anybody confirm or deny?

Confirm. I've been able to get the games in Vancouver this season and last.

Anyone up to looking for more?

Why sure...

AL East: Ripken, Ruth, Delgado, LONGORIA, Williams
AL Central: Cobb, Brett, Lajoie, Appling, Johnson
AL West: Finley, Plank, Griffey, Bagwell, Rodriguez
NL East: Carter, Aaron, Seaver, Ramirez, Schmidt
NL Central: Musial, Wagner, Yount, Rose, Anson
NL West: Drysdale, Mays, Gwynn, Helton, Johnson

Geez. Didn't expect Chuck Finley and Jim Fregosi to be 1-2 for the Angels. But they were both very good players, and they stayed in Anaheim a long time. Mike Trout is Working On It. Anyway, Hanley Ramirez is still active, but he's not a Marlin anymore. And Todd Helton packed it in a year ago.

Kershaw has a pretty decent at catching Drysdale (really, Drysdale?- Snider's BBRef WAR with the Dodgers seems to be higher).

Zaun had a great quote on Navarro's receiving last week when he missed a pitch in the dirt.  "What are you, too tired to block that"?

he seemed to have a pretty low opinion of Navarro's work ethic in that spot.

Thx 2JB!

Navarro indeed might be tired. He has caught as many games as when he was 23-25 and probably 30 lbs. or more lighter.  He wasn't DHing then either.  Zaun, of course, was lighter and was able in his mid-30s to catch 100 games or more and perform well, and is not sympathetic to that.  It's kind of silly because if the Blue Jays anticipated that Navarro would carry a regular full-time catcher's workload with no loss in performance, they got everything they deserved. 

"SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 24 2014 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#293910) #

Other teams had much more severe injuries than Toronto. Even the Orioles had injuries. It happens. The Jays injuries were actually mild, especially compared to their recent history"


well, that's actually not true at all. jays had more than their fair share of injuries this year.


Days on DL:

1. SS Reyes 20
2. LF Cabrera 24
3. RF Bautista 0
4. DH Encarnacion 38
5. 1B Lind 54
6. 3B Lawrie 96
7. C Navarro 0
8. CF Rasmus 35
9. 2B Izturis 170

B. UT Tolleson 0
B. OF Gose 0
B. IF Goins 0
B. C Thole 0



SP Dickey 0
SP Buehrle 0
SP Morrow 123
SP Happ 15
SP Hutchison 0

RP Janssen 41
RP Santos 32
RP Cecil 15
RP Delabar 0
RP Loup 0
RP McGowan 0
RP Redmond 0

The executive summary of the Jay injuries given each player's injury history and age: Lind, Lawrie and Encarnacion each missed somewhat more games than ought to have been expected.  Bautista and Navarro missed fewer games than anticipated.  Rasmus, Reyes and Cabrera were at par.  Izturis was not anticipated to produce much anyways.  The starting staff had fewer injuries than anticipated (unlike in some other years).  The relief corps had about what you would expect.

Just using DL days and thereby making Izturis' injury seem to be more significant than Wieters' is not helpful. 

The Jays have more than their share of injuries almost every season. They must be the unluckiest team in baseball, because there's no way to predict that players who have gotten hurt a bunch in the past are going to have more injuries in the future.

I suppose that it was unlucky that Lind, Encarnacion and Lawrie went down at the same time, putting a hole in the offence that was hard to deal with. Usually 1b/dh are the easiest places to find good extra pieces.   Dan Johnson was a pretty good sub, but Gibbons didn't have much confidence in him.  A deadline deal beyond Valencia might have helped the situation. 

An interesting news item - Dave Stewart is now a GM in Arizona.  Yes, the same one who was the assistant GM here years ago whose main contribution was the Woody Williams for Joey Hamilton who Stewart then pressed Ash to sign to a long term multi-million deal for an 82 ERA+ over 253 1/3 IP over 2 3/4 years.  Ick.

"Just using DL days and thereby making Izturis' injury seem to be more significant than Wieters' is not helpful. "

I think a depth chart with DL days is far more helpful than your off the cuff summary, to be honest.

An injury to the #9 hitter is obviously not the same as an injury to a middle of the order hitter. then again, wieters' thoroughly mediocre bat isn't much of a middle of the order bat anyways.

if we did want to compare to the orioles, my method would make the difference much clearer than your ad libbing.


1. RF Markakis 0
2. 3B Machado 79
3. CF Jones 0
4. 1B Davis 15
5. LF Cruz 0
6. C Wieters 141
7. DH Pearce 0
8. SS Hardy 0
9. 2B Schoop 0

B. UT Young 0
B. OF Lough 0
B. IF Flaherty 0
B. C Clevenger 0


SP Tillman 0
SP Chen 0
SP Norris 15
SP Jimenez 30
SP Gonzalez 15

RP O'Day 0
RP Britton 0
RP Matusz 0
RP Hunter 15
RP Webb 0
RP Meek 0
RP McFarland 0

Here's a chart then of games played in the last 4 years:

Year	Lind	Lawrie	Enc'n	Reyes	Rasmus	Bautista	Navarro	Cabrera
2011	125		134	126	129	149	64	155
2012	93	125	151	160	151	92	24	113
2013	143	107	142	93	118	118	89	88
2014	94	70	125	140	104	152	137	139

And as for Wieters, he's been a great defender and a decent hitter the past 3 years.  Let's say that he was quite a bit better than Dioner Navarro.  He had played between 130-148 games each of the last 4 years.  He starts off the season at age 28 hitting like his minor league record suggested he might and then is gone.  That's a crippling loss- roughly equivalent to one and a half times the loss associated with Lawrie's  and Lind's injuries put together.  Machado's injury was probably more significant than Encarnacion's. 

That's a crippling loss- roughly equivalent to one and a half times the loss associated with Lawrie's  and Lind's injuries put together

Ack.  That's an error.  It's intended to be "equivalent to the loss associated with Lawrie's and Lind's injuries put together" or "one and a half times Lawrie's", but not what is written. 

wieters is so overrated.

he was a 2.5fwar and 0.5bwar player last year, and averaged 3.1fwar and 2.0bwar the last two years, when fully healthy. he's 28 yrs old, with a below average career 98wrc+. he had a good first month this year, sure, but that's not even one of the top five months of his career. his value is tied up in his defense, which is much easier to replace than offense. his defense also seems to be in decline with fangraphs having his last four years as 20.8 to 18.3 to 14.8 to 5.5(pace) and b/r as 2.7 to 1.3 to -0.1 to -0.4(pace).

he's a good player, but just good. a 3warish type player just like lawrie or reyes or cabrera.

last 2yrs:

Navarro (30): 778pa, 3.9fwar, 4.7bwar
Wieters (28): 691pa, 3.4fwar, 1.2bwar


and for all the talk about wieters' great D and pitch handling, his SP sure didn't seem to miss him much, and neither did his team's D.

That's a crippling loss- roughly equivalent to one and a half times the loss associated with Lawrie's and Lind's injuries put together.

I agree. I also think it's much harder to replace your number one catcher than our third baseman or your DH. I also think you normally go into a season assuming that Lawrie and Lind will get injured and miss time - the future so often resembles the past - and that one accordingly has some kind of contingency plan for when it happens. (And the fact that the Orioles' contingency plans worked out so well has nothing to do with the quality of the players who were injured.)

their contingency plans didn't work out so well, its just that matt wieters isn't a crippling loss.

C.Joseph: 272pa, .620ops, 72wrc+, +10.0df, +0.7war
N.Hundley: 168pa, .637ops, 76wrc+, +2.5df, +0.3war
S.Clevenger: 96pa, .618ops, 69wrc+, -0.5df, -0.2war