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The Orioles can clinch the division by taking two of the three games from Toronto, so you can expect they'll be trying to do exactly that.


You have to like the way the Orioles respond to adversity by just flicking it from their shoulder, like so much dust. Matt Wieters, already a two-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner behind the plate, was finally swinging the bat in the manner that had long been expected (remember, he tore through the minors in one year, hitting .355/.454/.600) when his season ended in May.  Manny Machado, who had hit .283/.314/.432 in his first full season while winning a Gold Glove and making the All-Star team - all this at age 20, moreover - didn't start his season until May coming off knee surgery, and he was knocked out for the season in early August. Meanwhile Chris Davis, the heart of their offense, saw his BAVG plummet below the Mendoza Line while hitting literally half as many HRs as the year before. And then his season was ended by a suspension. And of course, their big free agent signing, Ubaldo Jimenez, was a) lousy, and b) injured.

None of this seemed to matter. Davis had been playing mostly 3B since the Machado injury, with Steve Pearce at first base. Pearce was caught in a numbers crunch early on, was DFA'd and released by the Orioles in April. He was claimed on waivers by the Blue Jays, but he chose free agency instead and signed right back with the Orioles (who suddenly needed him, after Davis got hurt.) That worked out well. Over seven seasons, with four different organizations, Pearce had hit .238/.318.377; for the 2014 Orioles, he's been bashing away at a .290/.365/.532 clip. Chris Who? Third base is now being covered by a Kelly Johnson-Jimmy Paredes platoon, which will certainly field the position better than Davis, and have a decent chance of hitting better than .196 as well.

Pitchers! Tonight's matchup looks like a honey on paper. That usually means a 13-11 game, of course. And tomorrow, Jimenez makes his first start since August 16. So maybe the Orioles are easing up on the throttle a little bit.

Stroman (10-5, 3.61) vs Chen (15-4, 3.59)
Hutchison (10-11, 4.36) vs Jimenez (4-9, 4.96)
Happ (9-10, 4.28) vs Norris (13-8, 3.74)



Jays at Orioles | 101 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
China fan - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#293651) #
How is it that you can be claimed on waivers and then you can just disregard the whole process and ignore the waiver claim and declare yourself a free agent if you prefer?  Seems like an odd rule, but maybe I'm missing something. 
Magpie - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#293652) #
A player placed on waivers for the purpose of giving him his unconditional release can reject a waiver claim and choose to become a free agent. Which is what happened here. Pearce was on a major league contract (at $850 K), was DFA'd April 22, and released April 27. But then Chris Davis got hurt that same day and the Orioles wanted Pearce back. Toronto claimed him on waivers on the 29th, Pearce rejected the claim, became a free agent, and re-signed with the Orioles the same day at the same money as before.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#293653) #
is goins having the worst hitting season in jays history? say minimum 100pa or so?
greenfrog - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#293654) #
Joe Lawrence came to mind, but even he managed a 34 wRC+ in his one season (2002). Goins' wRC+ is 28.

Probably someone has had a worse season. Magpie probably knows...
Mike Green - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#293655) #
Play Index gives the answer.  Kevin Cash, 2003 had an OPS+ of -2 in 117 PAs.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#293656) #
lemme see....worst hitting seasons in jays history, minimum 150pa:

1. IF D.McKay '77: 293pa, 25wrc+
2. IF R.Goins '14: 168pa, 26wrc+
3. IF H.Bush '00: 325pa, 33wrc+
4. OF G.Woods '79: 239pa, 33wrc+
5. IF J.Lawrence '02: 174pa, 34wrc+

prettay, prettay close.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#293657) #
yep, if we adjust that down to 100pa some others pop up:

1. C K.Cash '03: 117pa, -10wrc+
2. C B.Davis '79: 101pa, -4wrc+
3. OF J.Cannon '79: 146pa, 19wrc+
4. IF A.Griffin '93: 102pa, 25wrc+
5. IF D.McKay '77: 283pa, 25wrc+
6. IF R.Goins '14: 166pa, 26wrc+
7. OF D.DeWise '02: 116pa, 27wrc+
8. C A.Castillo '01: 146pa, 32wrc+
9. OF B.Simmons '01: 117pa, 33wrc+
10. IF H.Bush '00: 325pa, 33wrc+

still making a solid run at top 5. outside shot at top 3 still.
Mike Green - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#293658) #
J.J. Cannon.  Now there's a name that was fading from my memory.  He's listed in BBRef as Joe Cannon.  His career OPS+ of 7 for an outfielder/pinch hitter is pretty impressive.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#293660) #
so hey, the idea to mess with stroman's starting day instead of just skipping the #5 pitcher hasn't seemed to work out so well.

one strikout for stroman tonight.

edit: there's #2
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#293661) #
i like it, stro....but not at his head next time.
Gerry - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#293662) #
I don't know if Stroman was throwing at Joseph but if he was he needs to get the ball down.
greenfrog - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#293663) #
On the opposite side of the ledger, Lind currently has a 176 wRC+ against RHP this year. How many Jays have had a better hitting season against RHP (200 PA minimum)? The list can't be all that long.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#293664) #
can anyone find home/away splits for defense?

reyes looks uber comfy on the natural surface.
Magpie - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#293665) #
The list can't be all that long.

For sure, Fred McGriff in each of his full seasons and Carlos Delgado in at least half of his. I imagine John Olerud and Shawn Green get in there at least once.
Alex Obal - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#293667) #
Goins' flyout against Chen with two runners on was a respectable at-bat.
Magpie - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#293668) #
I would think the best season ever against RH pitchers by a Blue Jay would have to be Delgado in 2000: .357/.492/.727 with 35 HR and 101 RBI. (That was some season; he also hit .319/.422/.537 against LH pitchers.) Then Olerud in 1993, Delgado in 2003, McGriff in 1989, and Green in 1999.
Magpie - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#293670) #
For what it's worth, I thought Stroman's pitch to Joseph just slipped out of his hand - his immediate reaction was to wipe his pitching hand on his trousers. Naturally, the Orioles didn't like it and they were chirping at him as he came off the field. Stroman gave them a look, and he probably chirped back.
92-93 - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#293671) #
Going into tonight's game, Kawasaki had a .326/.308 OBP/SLG in 238 PA. His stats last year in 289 PA? .326/.308.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#293672) #
deciding that offense isn't important at the bottom of the order us starting to hurt us.

ah well, royals and indians losing, yanks and mariners tied. maybe we can back our wsy in at this rate.
John Northey - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#293673) #
It is looking a lot like 1988 where the Jays finished just 2 games back but never seemed really that in it.  Watch them be mathematically eliminated then have a hot streak just to make it very close.  Of course, that could help in getting new players and convincing Rogers to shell out a bit more to upgrade somewhere.

At 2B the free agent list is... * = option for 2015 available...
  • Emilio Bonifacio
  • Alexi Casilla
  • Mark Ellis
  • Rafael Furcal
  • Kelly Johnson
  • Nick Punto *
  • Brian Roberts
  • Ramon Santiago
  • Rickie Weeks *
  • Ben Zobrist *

Does anyone there jump out as 'oh yeah!'?  A big name at SS is Hanley Ramirez who has worse defense than Reyes but a killer bat - don't see him or Reyes going to 2B or one of them going to 3B with Lawrie to 2B though not to mention LA could outbid anyone if they want to.  

For sOPS+ by position the Jays are (in AL)... #8 at CA, 1B:2nd, 2B: 12th, 3B: 9th, SS: 5th, LF: 3rd, CF: 13th, RF: #1 (by a mile), DH: #6
That suggests the issues are mainly at CF and 2B.  LF though is a free agent (says he wants to stay).  Lots of prospects for CF but none really make me go 'woohoo' with the bat.  2B has amazing defense/no offense in Goins and a lot of 'meh' otherwise.

In trade Chase Utley has been tempting for the Jays if the Phillies will deal him.  Still.

Magpie - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#293674) #
Love Utley, still. But he's a 10 & 5 guy, and he actually wants to stay where he is.
Magpie - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#293676) #
And Kansas City scores twice with two out in the bottom of the ninth to edge the White Sox 4-3. With the Mariners getting pasted by the Angels, this will leave the A's and Royals two games up on Seattle and at least five games up on The Pack.
uglyone - Monday, September 15 2014 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#293677) #
sounds about right. we'll beat seattle head to head and finish as the best non playoff team. woot.
Original Ryan - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#293679) #
The bi-annual minor league affiliate shuffle starts today. According to Ballpark Digest, the Blue Jays have extensions in place with Lansing and Bluefield but they haven't been announced. All of the Blue Jays' other affiliates are signed through 2016, so there won't be any changes in this offseason.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#293680) #
Wonder what the situation would be if...
  1. Just league leaders go straight to WS (as it was pre 1969)..
    Angles over Baltimore by 4, Detroit 10 back; Washington 1/2 a game over Dodgers, 3 1/2 over St Louis, 4 1/2 over Giants
  2. Old 4 division format (pre-1994)
     Baltimore over Detroit by 6, Angels over Oakland by 10 1/2; Washington over St Louis by 3 1/2, Dodgers over Giants by 4
  3. One wild card (pre-last year)
    Detroit 1 1/2 over KC for Central, Oakland 1 up on KC for WC, Seattle 3 back, Jays 6 back; SF up  by 2 1/2 on  Pittsburgh, 4 on Milwaukee
  4. 8 teams per league (NHL, NBA style)
    AL: Baltimore, Detroit, LAA, Oakland, KC fairly safe, Seattle also.  Jays #7 seed 1 up on Cleveland/NYY dog fight for last slot, Tampa 4 out; Miami up by 2 on the Mets for the NL's final slot, 3 on Cincinnati, 4 on San Diego, 4 1/2 on Philly

I think the current method is fine, but boy would some of those battles be interesting under old formats although the pre-1994 method would be fairly dull right now.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#293681) #
I've always thought Pitchers are okay with 4 days off. They seem better at times with 5 days off. But don't do that well late in the season with 6 days off. Another bad Gibbons' decision.

A friend of mine hates Gibbons and wants him gone, because so many of the bad decisions are Gibbons'. I can't say I disagree with, but I don't agree with him.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#293683) #
It looks like John Gibbons brilliant idea of switching Buehrle & Stroman work out spectacularly well - let's hope he doesn't get any more brilliant ideas during his tenure - As I said when he was rehired, Gibbons is not a bad manager, just a maddeningly mediocre one & definitely the 5th best manager in the AL East - unfortunately, with the help of a compliant media, it looks like he'll be back again next year.

It's funny how no team seems to want the 2nd wild card, K.C may just back into it despite Ned Yost.

Watched the end of that KC/CWS game - speed really can kill, Dyson really is a dynamic weapon on the bench.

Jays promoted Graveman, who didn't need protection until after the 2016 season & he's faced 1 batter - I sure hope they have lots of room on the 40 man roster this winter

ramone - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#293684) #
Heard Gibbons in an interview and Blair asked him about switching Stroman and Buehrle and to me it sounded like the front office was making the decision not Gibby.
JB21 - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#293685) #
5th best manager in the AL East? Despite Farrell winning a WS you don't actually believe he's a better manager than Gibbon's, do you? I certainly wouldn't want him back over Gibby.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#293686) #
For what it's worth, I thought Stroman's pitch to Joseph just slipped out of his hand - his immediate reaction was to wipe his pitching hand on his trousers. Naturally, the Orioles didn't like it and they were chirping at him as he came off the field. Stroman gave them a look, and he probably chirped back.

I was watching the O's telecast.  Jim Palmer's initial reaction was that it was not intentional, but a few seconds later inferred from Stroman's lack of apology that it was intentional and indicated that it was (paraphrasing Palmer) unprofessional and dangerous. 

My thoughts:

1. if Stroman was throwing at Joseph because of the tag play at the plate on Reyes, it would be a very unusual occasion to do so.  What Joseph did on that that play was entire routine for a catcher on a play at the plate.
2. if Stroman was throwing at Joseph's head in any circumstance, it would be indicative of a character issue, and in this circumstance, a very serious character issue.
3. I have no idea whether he was or was not throwing at Joseph.

I think the world of Stroman and hope that it was merely a ball that slipped from his hand.
China fan - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#293687) #
"....with the help of a compliant media, it looks like he'll be back again next year...."

People keep forgetting that the "media" these days is us.  The media is not just the mainstream traditional media -- it's the blogs and fan forums like this one.  We are the media.  So don't blame the "media" for being "compliant" with the Jays.  Every fan has a voice in the media, and even more importantly, every fan has the ability to voice his or her feelings by boycotting the team, refusing to buy tickets, refusing to watch the broadcasts, etc.   And if the "media" and the "fans" wanted Gibbons to be gone, he would be gone.  The Jays aren't so oblivious to public opinion.  Rather than blaming the "compliant media" for the fact that Gibbons is returning next season, it would be more accurate to recognize the fact that the fans and the media (including the fan forums and blogs) are divided about him.  There's no consensus, no strong groundswell of opinion among the fans and media to get rid of him.  Don't look for media scapegoats to blame for Gibbons returning next year.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#293688) #
We should have ponied up for Francona when we had the chance.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#293689) #
yeah, gibbons is a vast upgrade over that doofus Farrell.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#293690) #
Is it clear what the organization will do with Anthopoulos and Gibbons?  It's not clear to me. 

My opinions:

1.   Anthopoulos should stay.  I see signs of growth; I am impressed with some of his low-level acquisitions and more importantly with development of prospects in the minor leagues.
2.   Gibbons should go.  He is neither a great manager nor a terrible manager, but he is not the right manager for this club.  He is best at being hands-off and letting established major leaguers do their thing.  If he had a team full of Mark Buehrles, he'd be perfect.  He doesn't.  He has a team that needs a better tactician and a better developer of young talent. 

uglyone - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#293691) #
i give them both another year i think.

AA does have a chance to fix his mistakes this offseason and take advantage of his promising drafting so far. He's got plenty of deadweight payroll coming off the books, so no excuses.
jerjapan - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#293692) #
AA should definitely stay.  His drafts have, as a whole, been as good as anyone's during his tenure.  His outside the box thinking with acquiring type B free agents yielded guys like Sanchez, Syndergaard and Smith Jr., along with some of the guys traded for Happ.  Punting draft picks to have money to spend on tough to sign guys brought us the likes of Rowdy Tellez.  Many regarded our 2014 draft as the best in the game. 

In terms of player contracts, we got rid of Wells, and get fantastic value from EE and Bautista.  Melky was clearly a good pickup.   less value from the signing of Izturis and the RR extension, but overall a positive. 

Big trades have been less fruitful, but rolling the dice will yield results like Santos, Morrow or JJ - all moves that would've been good but for injuries.  people felt he got a reasonable return for Halladay with his hands tied, and the jury remains out on the Dickey and Happ deals, and the Miami blockbuster. 

small acquisitions have been solid, like Mike Green points out.  trading lincoln for kratz and rasmussen, then swapping kratz and free-talent pickup liam hendricks for valencia, is a good example of improving at the margins.  sure, we lost Gomes this way, but again, you win some, you lose some. 

my biggest concern with smaller moves are things like losing Dyson, who may be a quality reliever for Miami, and putting Graveman on the 40 man roster too soon.  Richard griffin seems to like this approach, so I assume my concerns are valid.

hiring Gibbons may have been one of his worse moves.  id fire him if there was a great veteran available, but otherwise, I'm on the fence.

overall,  AA is bold and creative and has turned a moribund farm team into an exciting one quickly.  He's also produced the most interesting september baseball round here in decades.  partial credit to the second wild card, but still, I prefer the team on the field and going forward with AA at the helm to any team since the glory years. 

Super Bluto - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#293693) #
"with the help of a compliant media, it looks like he'll be back again next year...."

When Rogers owns the team, the broadcasters, one of the two sports radio stations in the city, not to mention parts of at least one major blog (DJF), it is impossible to know if the media is being compliant or not.
dan gordon - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#293694) #
I'm not impressed with Gibbons at all. His in-game strategy often seems to be poor. Then again, I find that I feel that way about a lot of big league managers. Joe Maddon is great. He almost always seems to make the logical move, and it amazes me that other managers don't - it's not rocket science.

My view on AA is generally quite positive, although I certainly haven't been impressed with the managers he has chosen. He has made some significant mistakes on contracts and trades, but many more positive moves than negative ones in my view. No GM is going to be right all the time. I'm very happy that he didn't deal away young talent like Pompey, Norris, Stroman and Sanchez. Only about 3 months ago, I heard several people saying trade Stroman and Sanchez for Samardzija. Fortunately, there was no foolishness like that done.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#293695) #
Then again, I find that I feel that way about a lot of big league managers. Joe Maddon is great. He almost always seems to make the logical move, and it amazes me that other managers don't - it's not rocket science.

True.  How many managers are there who one would describe as excellent tacticians?  Probably less than five.  Nonetheless, even the more mundane questions, of (for instance) who should be in the lineup and playing what position and what role should various players have in the bullpen, do not play to Gibbons' strengths.  Jose Bautista in CF and Kevin Pillar in LF last night would be a good example of that.  It's not a big thing, but it's the kind of thing that the Manager can directly decide on and change. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#293696) #
Happy birthday, Tim Raines.  From one '59er to another...

The collection of birthday boys for September 16 from BBRef has probably the best 3 in a row (born in 1959, 1958 and 1955): Tim Raines, Orel Hershiser and Robin Yount. 

Chuck - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#293697) #
Jose Bautista in CF and Kevin Pillar in LF last night

I wasn't watching nor have I read anything written about the game. Was the rationale for this decision ever mentioned? It would seem a strange enough decision for Martinez and Tabler to have at least commented on it.

China fan - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#293698) #
"....When Rogers owns the team, the broadcasters, one of the two sports radio stations in the city, not to mention parts of at least one major blog (DJF), it is impossible to know if the media is being compliant or not...."

Oh, come on, the Rogers-owned media are a tiny percentage of the total media sector in Toronto.  To imply that Rogers has a monopoly is a ridiculous and factually false statement. And as the DJF folks have repeatedly and patiently explained, Rogers has absolutely no ownership of DJF and no control over DJF at all. 

Among the media who are NOT owned by Rogers: all four of the daily newspapers; all of the radio stations except one; all of the TV stations and TV networks except its own; all of the blogs except Sportsnet; all of the social media such as Twitter and Facebook; all of the fan forums such as this one and all the other major forums; etc, etc.

Moreover, even the so-called "Rogers-owned" media, such as Sportsnet, usually has solid objective analysis of the Jays, with very respected journalists such as Shi Davidi who do not kowtow to Rogers in the slightest.

You'd really have to believe in UFOs to imagine that "the media" are controlled by Rogers.
Super Bluto - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#293699) #
Moreover, even the so-called "Rogers-owned" media, such as Sportsnet, usually has solid objective analysis of the Jays, with very respected journalists such as Shi Davidi who do not kowtow to Rogers in the slightest. You'd really have to believe in UFOs to imagine that "the media" are controlled by Rogers. I never suggested that the media are controlled by Rogers, just that a substantial part of the Jays and baseball information we get comes via Rogers-owned media This is factually true - as far as I know, TSN only gives highlights of Jays games on Sports Desk - they don't have a pre-game show, they don't do the noon-hour radio thing, they don't do anything like Jays talk.) No one devotes more coverage to the Jays than Rogers. (and why wouldn't they?) As for Shi Davidi - how can you possibly know how much Rogers management influences or doesn't influences what he says. None of us can. The Wilner example from a few years back shows that they've done it in the past. Was Wilner an exception? I don't know. Neither do you. None of us do except the parties involved - and why would they tell the truth? That's the point of my post.
China fan - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#293700) #
"....Was Wilner an exception? I don't know. Neither do you. None of us do except the parties involved...."

Of course the official game broadcasters who are directly employed by Rogers are under the influence of Rogers.  That's obvious from listening to Buck Martinez and the gang. Their job is to be upbeat and positive when they're broadcasting the games.  That's equally true of the game broadcasters of every team in the majors, and in other professional sports too.   But to suggest that the serious writers at Sportsnet -- such as Shi Davidi, a hard-working beat reporter who earned his credentials at Canadian Press over many years -- are nothing more than pro-Rogers shills and propagandaists, is patently ridiculous.  And you don't need to read their minds to figure that out.  You can tell from their writing -- it's not visibly biased in one direction or another, and it doesn't hesitate to criticize the faults of the team.

".....I never suggested that the media are controlled by Rogers, just that a substantial part of the Jays and baseball information we get comes via Rogers-owned media This is factually true - as far as I know, TSN only gives highlights of Jays games on Sports Desk - they don't have a pre-game show, they don't do the noon-hour radio thing, they don't do anything like Jays talk.) No one devotes more coverage to the Jays than Rogers...."

To claim that a "substantial part" of our baseball information comes from Rogers is already a climbdown from your earlier claim (or clear implication) that Rogers monopolized the Toronto sports media.  But it's still wrong. Any serious fan gets his information from a wide variety of sources, including blogs like this one.  You're not seriously suggesting that the opinions of the fans are controlled by Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler, are you?  It's fairly insulting to the vast majority of fans to suggest that they are so easily manipulated and controlled by the official broadcasters.
Gerry - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#293701) #

Italics off.

Paul D - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#293702) #
What's the case for starting Pillar over Rasmus against RHP?
Magpie - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#293703) #
He won't be here in 2015. Auditions are in progress.
Super Bluto - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#293704) #
A background at Canadian Press, while certainly impressive, does not in itself guarantee impartiality. Lots of folks go from CP and other respected news organizations and become paid corporate shills. A glance at any list of corporate communications VPs will turn up tonnes of former journalists from CP and others.

I don't know Shi Davidi and have no doubt that he's a fine man but even to take a job with Rogers to report on Roger's properties puts his ability to appear objective into question. How do we know that he hasn't gone as far as he wanted to? We don't.

Another (non-Shi-related) example: Why don't the respected journalists on the Roger's payroll call out Buck, Tabby, Jerry, Joe and Wilner for their obvious pro-team biases? Media criticism is encouraged when it comes to news reporting.

And yet, on Jays talk, whenever a caller tries to critique broadcasters on Wilner's show, he shuts them down (they're not here to defend themselves, he usually says). Has Shi ever questioned this?

That said, it's only sports journalism. I happily consume it by the bucketful and appreciate great writers and broadcasters. But society isn't threatened if it's not done objectively.

Paul D - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#293705) #
He won't be here in 2015. Auditions are in progress.

That seems like a strange reason for a team who thinks its in a playoff race.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#293706) #
I am not sure what the point of sending Hutchison out for the 7th inning was. 
Mike D - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#293707) #
Pfft. The Orioles can have their stupid division title.

The Jays are the champions of saving money during free agency and at the trade deadline. Which is all that really matters.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 16 2014 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#293708) #
The O's are spending $30 million LESS than the Jays this year so I don't think 'saving money' is a factor for Jays vs O's.  The Jays could've had Dan Duquette, the O's GM, as their own after Gord Ash was fired I think but instead did the JPR years.  To be honest though I would've probably made the same choice at that time.  The O's manager though, Buck Showalter, I would've taken whenever available as he seemed like a very good manager.

The challenge is to develop from within.  That is by far the cheapest and most effective method.  Even the Yankee late 90's dynasty was mainly home grown (Posada, Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, Rivera, Orlando Hernandez, etc.) with some smart free agent signings (Raines, O'Neill, David Wells) and trades (Wells for Clemens).  The Jays are going in the right direction with the young pitching finally showing up and some hitters beginning to emerge at long last but the Jays are right now in that painful zone of close but not quite there.  I just hope they find a solution for 2B and the OF for 2015 and figure out how to maximize the rotation value between vets (Buehrle, Dickey, Happ), kids (Hutchison, Stroman) and prospects (Graveman, Norris, Sanchez, etc.) via trades and promotions and bullpen assignments.
China fan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 05:04 AM EDT (#293709) #
"....on Jays talk, whenever a caller tries to critique broadcasters on Wilner's show, he shuts them down...."

The debate on this thread began with the extraordinary claim that the "compliant media" are preventing any discussion of whether Gibbons should be fired.  Now it's reduced to the usual quibbles over whether Mike Wilner and Buck Martinez are pro-Jays.  Of course they are pro-Jays.  They are a tiny percentage of the media, and there is a vast range of free debate on whether Gibbons should stay or go. 
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#293710) #
Why don't the respected journalists on the Roger's payroll call out Buck, Tabby, Jerry, Joe and Wilner for their obvious pro-team biases?

Because no one, themselves included, really regards them as journalists. They're part of the team. They play golf with the manager and the coaches on off-days.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#293711) #
In military jargon, they would be "embedded journalists", I guess.  I don't know if George Carlin ever had fun with that turn of phrase.  "What exactly are the subjects doing in bed with the journalists- they can't just be sleeping, can they?"
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#293712) #
Is anyone else surprised that Hutchison has thrown 175 innings with two starts left in his first season back from surgery? I'm not sure if there is a cut off on innings for starters coming back from Tommy John, but 150 IP stands out to me due to Washington's handling of Strasburg a couple of years ago. Hutchison potentially ending the season with 190 innings, which would be nearly 50 innings above his career high (in 2011) seems unnecessarily risky. Either the Jays don't know about the risk involved (doubtful) or they don't care. Or maybe they just think pitchers will get hurt regardless and use them as long as they are healthy. Either way, it seems pretty careless.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#293713) #
Is anyone else surprised that Hutchison has thrown 175 innings with two starts left in his first season back from surgery?

With the team's playoff chances all but vapour, you've got to imagine there's a good chance they just shut Hutchison down for the rest of the season. Who knows, maybe Stroman as well.

It's hard to know what the magic formulas are when making any determinations about health risks. Maybe shutting down either doesn't make a damned bit of difference. But there are certainly plenty of bodies around to fill the gaps if they do decide to head down that path.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#293714) #
I doubt that there are hard and fast rules.  It has been 2 years since Hutchison's surgery.  Still, I do wish that Gibbons would, in marginal situations like last night's 7th inning, remember that Hutchison is in his first full season back and take him out.

I wondered about Hutchison's FIP/ERA disparity.  The greatest part of it seems to be situational- over his career, opponents have hit .223/.286/.370 with no one on base and .287/.349/.490 with runners on (over 400 PAs in both instances).  Whether it is due to bad luck, his mechanics from the stretch, less focus with runners on, or something else I don't know.  Baserunners are 25/4 attempting to steal off him; even though he has a pretty decent move to my eye.  Having a catcher with a better arm might help- although he has pitched a lot better overall with Navarro catching than with Kratz or Arencibia.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#293715) #
It is funny how views are with pitchers and innings.  I go by the 'as long as the arm slot is stable keep him going' method.  From what I've read the big key to injuries is guys throwing when tired which is indicated by their arm slot shifting or significant shifts in velocity.  From what I can tell the Jays are looking at something similar as inning limits seem off the board this year. 
Hutchison: 23 yrs old, 175 2/3 IP, lifetime minor league innings=270 (peak 149 in a season) plus 58 2/3 ML innings
Stroman: 23 yrs old, 156 1/3 IP (ML/AAA), peak was 111 2/3 before, total 131 IP in minors pre 2014
Norris: 21 yrs old, 127 IP this year (A+/AA/AAA/ML), total pre-2014 was 133 1/3 IP (peak year 90 2/3)
Sanchez: 21 yrs old, 128 IP this year (AA/AAA/ML), never reached 100 before this year
Graveman: 23 yrs old, 168 IP this year (A/A+/AA/AAA/ML), 39 2/3 total in pro career before this year

So the Jays have pushed these key 5 starters.  Interesting though that the two 21 year olds are almost dead even for IP while the three 23 year olds are all over 150 and should be around 170 by the time the year is done (ie: should all handle 200 IP seasons next year).  Maybe there is a plan and we just didn't see it until splitting by age.

Super Bluto - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#293716) #
"Now it's reduced to the usual quibbles over whether Mike Wilner and Buck Martinez are pro-Jays"

I'll take your deflection as a concession to the main point. How unusually big of you China Fan, you don't normally give in so easily.
China fan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#293717) #
I'm having trouble figuring out what your main point is, actually.  Are you still arguing that the Toronto media are "compliant" to Rogers?  If not, how many of them are "compliant" to Rogers, and what percentage of the Toronto media do they represent?
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#293718) #
watching the orioles celebrate hurt more than i thought it would.

f baseball.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#293719) #
"That seems like a strange reason for a team who thinks its in a playoff race."

playing valencia, goins, gose, and pillar everyday the last few weeks, not to mention meaningful leverage usage of norris and graveman in the 'pen probably indicates the team gave up on the playoff dream before we did.

clearly seems like auditions have been going on for a while now.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#293720) #
The question is who would've been better and available? 
Valencia: Francisco might be better vs RHP but still has a sub 400 OPS since August 1st, 561 in his last 10 games, 955 in his last 5 (11 PA) if you really want to stretch it. 
Goins: amazing defense, who do you play ahead of him?  Kawasaki has a 631 OPS and 'meh' defense, Tolleson is down to an 84 OPS+ now with a 447 OPS since August 1st
Gose: him or Rasmus... Gose='wow' defense but is it enough to cover the 103 vs 70 OPS+?  Pillar is at 69.  Mayberry should get more time (9 PA so far). 

For the pen, Norris has been in 3 games, two with a leverage of .01 (ie: as low as it gets) and one high leverage (K'ing Ortiz) - hard to argue with that usage.  Graveman gave up a single in his first appearance (a .99 leverage) and was pulled, then a .12 leverage (very low pressure) and got 2 outs.  I really have trouble getting worked up about that usage especially when it worked well with Norris and when the vet Loup came in post Graveman he allowed 3 hits and 2 of his own runs plus Graveman's baserunner to score.

The outfield with Rasmus and Mayberry vs Pillar and Gose you can have a case.  But everything else is more the crap that is left now.  Goins, Kawasaki, Tolleson - at least Goins gives you something.  Francisco has fallen apart and no one else seems available to cover 3rd.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#293721) #
even though [Hutchison] has a pretty decent move to my eye.

It may be aesthetically pleasing, but he has yet to pick off a base runner in his career, and as you mention, the opposition steals bases on him pretty much whenever they want. In this respect, he's McGowan Mark II.
China fan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#293722) #
There's a very poignant interview with Colby Rasmus today on the TSN blog, in which Rasmus basically admits that he doesn't enjoy baseball any more.  I feel for the guy.  Many of us assume that it must be a constant joy to be playing sports for a multimillion-dollar salary.  But for complicated personalities like Rasmus, who feel constant pressure to live up to expectations, and who have been "solved" to some extent by the defensive shift this year, baseball is not the enjoyable thing that we assume it is.  I worry about him.  But it's clear that he can't stay with the Jays next year -- he won't contribute much with his mind in that kind of depressed space.

Here's the interview:  http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_macarthur/?id=461951

China fan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#293723) #
Stroman has been hit with a 6-game suspension, plus a fine of an undisclosed amount, for throwing near the head of Caleb Joseph on Monday night.   He will appeal.  It means only a two-day delay in his next start.  But he doesn't want to be seen as a hitman; denies that he did it deliberately.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#293724) #

for gibbons to suddenly stop using platoons right after the rosters expanded to make it easier is something that still boggles my mind. i don't get it, especially since gibbons has always been good with platoons.


2B

vRHP Kawasaki 77wrc+ (77 career) or Goins 34wrc+ (46 career)
vLHP Tolleson 134wrc+ (120 career) or Goins -12wrc+ (23 career)

3B

vRHP Francisco 126wrc+ (114 career) or Valencia 59wrc+ (67 career)
vLHP Valencia 129wrc+ (137 career)


OF

vRHP Rasmus 106wrc+ (112 career)
vRHP Gose 82wrc+ (84 career)
vRHP Pillar 61wrc+ (50 career)

vLHP Rasmus 92wrc+ (77 career)
vLHP Pillar 68wrc+ (76 career)
vLHP Gose 33wrc+ (40 career)


1B

vRHP Lind 172wrc+ (129 career)
vLHP Mayberry 168wrc+ (132 career)


the only move that made any sense to me was giving gose/pillar platoon a chance....when melky was healthy. after melky was injured, though, imo it made no sense to keep rasmus out of the lineup.


gibby decided that he could regularly slot in 2-3 blackholes per game (valencia/pillar/goins vRHP, gose/goins vLHP) and its pretty impossible for defense to make up that kind of difference.

since gibby had previously been good with platoons, i can onky imagine that he, Aa, or both had determined that seeingbif goins valencia gose pillar could handle full time roles was more important than winning games - i.e. that they didn't think we could make the playoffs.

of course, they might have been right about that.

still doesn't convince me that there was any reason to believe valencia could ever hit righties or goins could ever hit at all.
China fan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#293725) #
"....i don't get it, especially since gibbons has always been good with platoons...."

I think you've mentioned a likely explanation when you mention the 2015 try-outs.  They want to see some guys in serious games, not just in spring training.  But I also suspect there are other factors at play. You can't just look at their career numbers and assume that's the only factor that the Jays must consider.  As noted above, Rasmus seems to be losing interest in baseball (at least temporarily), and that's got to be a factor in how the Jays use him.  Why put someone into the lineup who is demoralized and uninterested in baseball, when you could play someone young and keen like Pillar or Gose?  Or when you could try out a potential 25-man-roster guy like Mayberry?  Similarly with Juan Francisco, there's got to be something else at play:  a lingering injury, or a personal issue, or just a conclusion by the coaching staff that the league's pitchers have figured out a hitting weakness in Francisco that cannot be solved.  It must be something that goes beyond the statistics.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#293726) #
any reason to believe valencia could ever hit righties

Sure there is. He's had two years as a regular. In one of them he hit RH pitching just fine. In one of them, he was terrible. That's the entire story.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#293727) #
I keep seeing people saying to play Francisco but since the collapse started August 1st (Jays were playing 577 ball in July, 346 in August, 571 September) Francisco has been horrid...pitcher hitting horrid with a 384 OPS (52 PA).  Tolleson isn't much better with a 447 OPS.  Up through the end of July guys like Francisco and Tolleson were keys to the Jays success but now they are parts of the collapse. 

But in September the Jays have been playing 571 ball... a 93 win pace.  Why?  Guys OPS who have 30+ PA....
1000+: Lind (plus Rasmus, Mayberry, Tolleson but in 13 or fewer PA each)
900's: Navarro, Bautista
800's: Encarnacion
700's: Reyes
600's: Pillar
500's: Valencia
400's: Gose, Goins (Kawasaki 16 PA, Cabrera16 PA)
300's: Thole (12 PA)
000's: Pompey, Francisco, Johnson (4 PA combined)

So Valencia's starting to fall back but hard to play the other options. 

Rotation though...
Dickey & Buehrle 2.57 ERA, Stroman 3.00, Happ 3.46, Hutchison 4.82  Sweet.
August?
Hutchison 3.93, Happ 4.10, Dickey 4.40, Buehrle 5.76, Stroman 6.75

Hrm.  Hadn't noticed just how bad Buerhle and Stroman were in August and how good the rotation has been this month.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#293728) #
Do the Jays really need to see Goins, Pillar, and Valencia play everyday for a month to know they are not MLB players? To do that in a playoff race (as unlikely as the odds were) was inexcusable. Only Gose has the potential to have his defense/baserunning make up for his bad offense. The other players are bench players at best, and even that tag probably only applies to Valencia out of those three.
China fan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#293729) #
"....they are not MLB players...."

Wow.  There's a sweeping statement.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#293730) #
The Jays have been receiving some criticism for their non-moves last off-season and at the deadline, but it may be that there just weren't all that many obviously good moves to be made. Lots of people would have had the Jays dump Lind and sign Ubaldo and Ellis -- or worse, be the high bidder for Tanaka. What sort of shape would the organization be in had it made those moves? At the moment, AA's non-moves are looking more prudent than pusillanimous. The 2015 roster is looking better for it.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#293731) #
"The Jays have been receiving some criticism for their non-moves last off-season and at the deadline, but it may be that there just weren't all that many obviously good moves to be made. Lots of people would have had the Jays dump Lind and sign Ubaldo and Ellis -- or worse, be the high bidder for Tanaka. What sort of shape would the organization be in had it made those moves? At the moment, AA's non-moves are looking more prudent than pusillanimous. The 2015 roster is looking better for it."

I think it's more troublesome that he didn't add anyone at the deadline, like Headley or McCarthy. Those were 3+ WAR players that were practically given away by their teams, and were free agents after 2014. In hindsight, I can excuse ownership for not pumping money into a last place team in the off-season, but to not add payroll in July when the team was either leading the division (early July) or leading a WC spot (July 31st) is a different story. Doesn't give me much hope for the 2015 payroll.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#293732) #
Yes - I can see the argument for trading low-value assets for Headley, Prado and/or McCarthy.

I would have liked to see the Jays sign Santana (a move I supported in the off-season). He would have been an upgrade over Happ and would have provided some stability to a shaky rotation early on, perhaps giving the 'pen some extra protection when it was getting overused. On his own, Santana wouldn't have propelled the Jays into a playoff spot, though. On the other hand, he would have made the team more competitive and would have produced an additional draft pick in 205.
ayjackson - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#293733) #
Because if we had another win since the trade deadline, we'd be in the playoffs.
jerjapan - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#293734) #
Another (non-Shi-related) example: Why don't the respected journalists on the Roger's payroll call out Buck, Tabby, Jerry, Joe and Wilner for their obvious pro-team biases? Media criticism is encouraged when it comes to news reporting.

I'm not sure if you understand the difference between 'news' and 'colleagues'.  I have plenty of colleagues I disagree with who I don't publicly call out. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#293735) #
Steve Pearce, hmm.  Like Bautista, he did start off in the Pirate organization at its low point.  He was a very good hitter in the minor leagues, so it's not like this year came completely out of nowhere.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#293736) #
Gibbons uses more pinch-hitters than any manager in the league. Unfortunately, Tolleson has almost twice as many PH at bats as anyone else. He's now 4-30 as a pinch-hitter.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#293737) #
"Sure there is. He's had two years as a regular. In one of them he hit RH pitching just fine. In one of them, he was terrible. That's the entire story."

2010: 211pa, 90wrc+
2011: 449pa, 69wrc+
2012: 105pa, 17wrc+
2013: 68pa, 80wrc+
2014: 145pa, 59wrc+
Career: 978pa, 67wrc+

Milb

2012: 247pa, .637ops
2013: 205pa, .792ops
Career since 2022: 466pa, .715ops
Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#293738) #
Speaking of Tolleson, he's not only hitting .189 over the last two months, he's slugging .189 over the last two months. He hasn't had an extra base hit since July 6.

And he's played atrocious, even game-losing, defence.

And he'll be 31 in November.

Why is major league playing time treated as such a worthless commodity by the organization right now? Shouldn't it be used to win games or to develop/evaluate young players? If I were AA, I'd release him just to prevent Gibbons from using him so damn much.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 17 2014 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#293739) #
Well, who might have helped last winter?  Who did fans here really, really want?

CA: We all would've loved Brian McCann but he doesn't appear to be an upgrade with 2.1 fWAR vs Navarro's 2.2

2B: we all knew Cano was waaaay out of reach at over $200 million, many wanted Stephen Drew who is at 156/236/291 for a 48 OPS+ overall.   Omar Infante has a 257/294/344 line (0.5 fWAR)

DH: Kendrys Morales was someone many wanted instead of Lind... 223/268/341 ... boy that would've hurt.  Nelson Cruz a few hoped for and he would've been very nice (264/332/524 in over 600 PA)

P: many were chased, some wanted Scott Kazmir really bad (dang he'd have been nice 2.7 fWAR). Ervin Santana looked ready to sign up until the last moment (2.8 fWAR) while many here (myself included) wanted Ubaldo Jimenez who wasn't as good (0.4 fWAR).Matt Garza some wanted and his 2.4 fWAR suggests he would've been an asset too.

However, for all those guys for the rotation what did we get from our (final) big 5 in fWAR?  Buehrle 3.1, Stroman 2.9, Hutchison 2.6, Dickey 2.0, and Happ 1.5.  Odds are if any of those guys were signed Stroman would've waited longer to get his chance as would've Happ.  I don't see that making a big difference.

Really, the biggest potential positve change is only Cruz (3.6) over Lind (1.5) and one of Kazmir/Santana/Garza over Happ (2.4 to 2.8 fWAR vs 1.5).  That would've added about 3 wins which would put the Jays 2 1/2 out of a playoff slot thus very valuable.  Of course, if they got Jimenez and Morales they would've been a lot deeper in the hole and in more debt.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 06:20 AM EDT (#293740) #
I wonder how much better Morales and Drew would have been had they signed in the winter and played a full (distraction-free) season.

I think AA deserves credit for staying away from the dud players/contracts. And he was heavily in on (in that inimitable Blue Jays way) one of the players (Santana) who would have helped, whose contract was manageable, and who would have produced an extra draft pick next year.
ogator - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#293741) #
I think it is possible that you are giving AA credit for something he may not have been allowed to do. Maybe he chose not to sign some of these players and maybe he was told he could not add to payroll so he didn't choose not to sign these players. He simply wasn't given the option.
Magpie - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#293742) #
... In one of them, he was terrible.

And to finish that thought, as seems necessary, in the other three years, he was averaging 3 at bats a week against RH pitchers. I would suggest that how any player performs while being used in such a fashion might - might - not mean anything whatsoever.

What's the problem? If you want some reasons for giving the man a look, I'll give you a bunch. 1) As just mentioned, his usage pattern over the last two and a half years may mean his splits are meaningless. Because 2) That type of platoon history is too weird to be real. Either he's not that good against LH pitchers or not that bad against RH pitchers. 3) This team has a standing job opening for a backup third baseman. I would not want to see them decide "oh great, Valencia is our third baseman and Lawrie can play second." That would be dumb. But Brett Lawrie, being what he is, needs a real, bonafide backup. 4) Juan Francisco. 5) Steve Tolleson. 6) Munenori Kawasaki. 7) Youneverknow. Sometimes a player just needs the right opportunity in the right place. Ask Ben Zobrist. Or Steve Pearce. Or Jose Bautista. Sometimes they surprise you. Most of the time they don't, but sometimes they do. You never know unless you actually take a look.
christaylor - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#293743) #
Looking at the possible upgrades in John's post it mostly jumps out at me at how difficult it will be for this team to go from merely good to great.

Either an influx of cash from Rogers (not likely) or a AA pulling off shuffling pitching assets for position players is the only way I can see much hope for the Jays taking the next step.

Failing that, we're left with sitting back and hoping for good luck on the injury front, fringe pickup front (too bad about Francisco and Reimold) and from pythagoras. I'm OK with that as a fan for next year, but I've soured on Rogers ownership. This is the second time they've been in to build a good team and then backed off.
John Northey - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#293744) #
Now that the playoffs are moving into mirage territory what would be best for the Jays from a draft perspective?
Currently: #14 in standing (pick #17)
Distance from a top 10 (protected) pick? AKA 20th place?  7 games
Distance from top 10 in MLB?  4 games
Within 2 games of? 12th place, 16th place (picks #15 or #19)

So odds are the Jays, unless they really tank or really get hot, will draft between 15th and 19th overall.  With picks in that range they have gotten Chris Carpenter, Gabe Gross , Shawn Green, Joe Lawrence, David Purcey, Kevin Ahrens (max AA), Alex Sanchez, Roy Halladay, David Cooper, D.J. Davis (A ball but just 19), Miguel Negron (reached AAA), Eddie Zosky, Shannon Stewart, and Alex Rios.  Lots of quality with picks in that range including a likely HOFer, 2 Cy Young winners, and 5 who've been all-stars (I think) vs just 3 who haven't reached (one still has some hope) and 4 others who could be viewed as flops (Lawrence, Sanchez, Cooper, Zosky).  So 5 strong wins (I count making an ASG as a strong win) vs max of 7 flops plus a guy who had a decent career in Gross.

I'd still prefer the Jays get burning hot and pull off the miracle but 6 games out with 11 to play is a very, very steep road to climb. (Oakland and KC tied for the two WC slots, Seattle 2 back, Cleveland 5, Jays and Yankees 6 with a 'tragic number' of 6).  Technically Tampa Bay is still in it but their tragic number is 1 (one loss or one win by Oakland & KC and they are out). 
Chuck - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#293745) #
That type of platoon history is too weird to be real [.865, .622].

I don't pretend to know, but I wonder if some players truly are built to have a 200+ point swing in their OPS splits. I can't believe that all RHB would display a similar L/R split with enough playing time (not what Magpie is saying, I know). I think some RHB are always going to struggle against RHP and maybe Valencia falls into this category and maybe he doesn't.

Lefty-killers of my past such as John Wockenfuss and Benny Ayala had ballpark 200-point OPS splits. Were they fundamentally built as such, or was there some self-fulfilling prophecy at work whereby they saw so little RHP they never had a chance to get really good against them.

Tolleson is a modern day lefty-killer, albeit of a small sample variety (792/366 in 198/108 PA). Is he of the Wockenfuss/Ayala ilk or given another 300 MLB PA (ain't gonna happen), would he show a more conventional L/R split?

When forecasting Valencia's future performance, I wonder how best to forecast the L/R split? Regress his extreme split to something more normal for a RHB? Honour his track record?

Mike Green - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#293746) #
Good question, Chuck.  I thought that I would take a closer (but far from comprehensive) look at the data.  Benny Ayala had only 131 career PA against RHP.; I figured that was too small a sample.  I remembered that Matt Mieske had huge splits (even larger than Wockenfuss).  I decided to break down their platoon splits by component part (IsoP, W/K and BABIP).  Mieske had much better W/K numbers and a much higher IsoP (.245 vs. .120) against LHP.  He actually had a lower BABIP.  Wockenfuss had a tremendous difference in IsoP (.210  vs. .094) and much better W/K numbers although he did have good W/K numbers against RHP.  You would intuitively think that these differences would be sustainable.

And then I had a closer look at Valencia.  His career line vs. RHP is .229/.267/.355 with a BABIP of .266.  Against LHP, it is .328/.367/.498 with a BABIP of .357.  It's mostly a BABIP difference.  So I had a closer look at his batted ball profile, all figures vs. LHP first followed by vs. RHP:  line drive rate (22.1%/17.8%), Pop-up (10.7/15.6) , Infield hit (11.2%/2.8%).  He does have typical improvements in power and W/K, but it seems that he does square up the ball better vs. LHP to an unusual degree.  Intuitively, one would take the view that some of the difference is not likely to be sustained. My guess is that if you did it methodically, you'd end up with a projected BABIP of .280 against RHP and .340 against LHP and slash lines that follow from that.  It does add up to a platoon/back-up player though. 

Gerry - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#293747) #
Last night I was thinking along the same lines as christaylor.

For 2015 the Jays look to have a rotation and good players at several positions. But there are holes at 2B and at two spots in the outfield. How will AA plug those holes?

Top tier free agents - unlikely. First AA has not played much in this space. Second AA might not have the money to spend on such a FA. And third, top tier free agents are not lining up to come here.

Free agents of a lesser quality - AA might have to gamble here to sign a guy or two coming off a down year who he hopes will rebound. Obviously a risky approach.

Trades - AA could trade someone of value. A starting pitcher would be the obvious place to trade from but young starting pitchers, and second year starting pitchers, are very unpredictable. Can you rely on Stroman, Sanchez and Norris in 2015? Ideally you would keep three of Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison and Happ. That gives AA one trading chip.

The return of Brett Lawrie and Maicer Izturis could help the Jays somewhat, but you need more infield depth.

It will be a challenging off season for AA.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#293748) #
I don't think that either Sanchez or Norris is ready to start 2015 in the rotation.  The end of 2014 might be a good time to give Graveman a start.  I think that he might be an acceptable starter at the outset of the 2015 season. I don't see a trading chip there. 

The potential surplus that I see is at DH (I don't see Encarnacion or Lind as an acceptable defensive first baseman, least of all if you are going to keep Reyes at shortstop).  I can see picking up Lind's option and trading either of them.  Obviously, anyone would prefer to have Encarnacion on this team indefinitely (he is a much better hitter and you don't have to platoon); the asking price for him would be very high.

Bautista will be turning 34 in October.  He still moves pretty well, but I think that you are more likely to get a good healthy offensive and defensive season from him at first base than in the outfield. 

I see possibilities, but what seems clear to me is that Lawrie and one of the young outfielders will need to take a step forward. 


Ryan Day - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#293749) #
Why is major league playing time treated as such a worthless commodity by the organization right now? Shouldn't it be used to win games or to develop/evaluate young players?

Who would you play ahead of Tolleson that either helps you win or needs to be evaluated? Burns or Schimpf? I suppose you could make a case for just playing Goins & Diaz' gloves in an attempt to get the most out of the pitching staff.

There are probably other options, but it's tough to make a particularly emphatic case for any of them. Tolleson was a useful piece for much of the year; maybe it's worth seeing if he can regain any of that form.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#293750) #
With the Jays having failed to break through in the first two years of the so-called window of contention, AA should probably keep his focus on acquiring and developing young talent. I wouldn't go cashing in top prospects for name-brand veteran players at this point.

AA could go with the current roster (maybe trade a veteran or two and continue to look for some value additions), then look to trade other veterans at the 2015 deadline if the team is a non-contender at that point. I agree that the team has too many aging veterans with mediocre defense (EE, Lind, Reyes, Bautista, Navarro). Injuries could well be a factor next year, too.

Probably the Jays will focus on unearthing hidden gems like Steve Pearce. I still wouldn't mind seeing them sign Martin on a two- or three-year deal, though.
JB21 - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#293751) #
Not too sure if this has been brought up as a solution for a hole next year but what about platooning Lind & Reyes at DH? And finding a platoon partner for Reyes at SS?

It solves the problem of having to have two slots for a DH platoon, and also solves the problem of having Reyes play everyday on turf. Chances are this solution would lead to better health for both Reyes & Lind, and better defense at SS.

Obviously this also gives the opportunity to leave Reyes in at SS versus leftys (possibly on the road) to give Melky (assuming he's re-signed) and Joey some time at DH.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#293752) #
"What's the problem? If you want some reasons for giving the man a look, I'll give you a bunch. 1) As just mentioned, his usage pattern over the last two and a half years may mean his splits are meaningless. Because 2) That type of platoon history is too weird to be real. Either he's not that good against LH pitchers or not that bad against RH pitchers. 3) This team has a standing job opening for a backup third baseman. I would not want to see them decide "oh great, Valencia is our third baseman and Lawrie can play second." That would be dumb. But Brett Lawrie, being what he is, needs a real, bonafide backup. 4) Juan Francisco. 5) Steve Tolleson. 6) Munenori Kawasaki. 7) Youneverknow. Sometimes a player just needs the right opportunity in the right place. Ask Ben Zobrist. Or Steve Pearce. Or Jose Bautista. Sometimes they surprise you. Most of the time they don't, but sometimes they do. You never know unless you actually take a look."


29yr old who hasn't been able to hit rhp in mlb or aaa.

we know how he will do vs rhp.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#293753) #
That is pretty much right, in my opinion, uglyone, with one caveat.  The minor league data actually reinforces my opinion expressed in reply to Chuck's question about what splits to expect from Valencia if one was projecting him.  His BABIP vs. RHP is 29 points lower in MLB as compared with triple A; his BABIP vs. LHP is12 points higher in MLB as compared with triple A.  I think that a modest part of the reason for his extraordinary splits in MLB for a RH hitter is dumb luck.  However, it does appear extremely likely that his inability to square up RH pitchers is easily seen at both the major and minor league levels over 1200 PAs. That combined with his medium range power and poor walk rate means that he is very unlikely to be a player who can hit both RH and LH pitchers.

Pearce was a minor league star ("a 4A player") who hit right-handed pitchers and left-handed pitchers at very comparable rates according to the limited data that I have.
John Northey - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#293754) #
Now that is creative.  Wonder if it would work well or not?  Odds are for Reyes to play his best defensively he'd need to play most games at SS but resting him at DH when a LHP is on the mound isn't a bad idea.  Sadly the only RH hitter who could cover SS is Diaz who cannot hit, while the other two options are LH (Kawasaki and Goins) who aren't exactly sluggers either.  Kevin Nolan is in the system and is a RH but just reached AAA this year and hit 580 OPS at age 26.  No prospects in full season ball really showed much with the bat at SS from what I can see.

So, what free agents are out there?  Hanley Ramirez would be sweet but his cost is high and defense is very poor.Jed Lowrie hits well (lifetime better vs LHP, better vs RHP this season) but might be pricey too. 
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#293755) #
"2) That type of platoon history is too weird to be real."

it's quite common.

Career wRC+ vLHP/vRHP

D.Valencia (29): 137/67
J.Mercer (28): 160/83
W.Rosario (25): 156/73
D.Norris (25): 143/79
C.Ross (33): 141/89
J.Satin (29): 133/81
J.Mayberry (30): 133/82
W.Castillo (27): 135/88
B.Dozier (27): 131/86
F.Guiterrez (31): 120/75
R.Davis (33): 120/74
E.Lucas (32): 130/45

and i'm sure there's plenty more.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#293756) #
Almost all of those players have less severe platoon splits than Valencia.  Something like Rajai Davis' split is what I would expect from Valencia if given 400 PAs against RHP and 200 PAs against LHP in 2015.  I am not suggesting that this would be a good idea.
bpoz - Thursday, September 18 2014 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#293757) #
Hutch has had a very heavy workload IMO.
D Norris & K Graveman have not been used enough to prove anything or showcase anything. Their minor league season is the true evaluater and it has been very good. Unless they make the team out of ST next year, I expect an option to be burned.
I hate wasting options, as I see them as being very valuable.They would have made excellent potential 6th starters after S Nolin.
By New Year or Jan 15 we should have a very good idea of the 2015 rotation. Will it be a youth movement or a continuation of our window of contention.
Youth movement: Stroman, Hutch, Sanchez & Norris plus someone, maybe Graveman, Nolin, Jenkins...
If window of contention then IMO (disagree if you like) a more balanced offense is needed. I think EE & Bautista carried the offense with hot & cold help from others. A good closer, I do not want to lose games in the 9th...Joey McLaughlin.
Other smaller issues which I do not like to ignore are 40 man roster spots. Taking available options into account if Navarro is the full time catcher, then what about AJ Jimenez and J Thole.
As some have mentioned, this team has holes. I can see offensively EE, Bautista & Lind having great years and Lawrie IMO has the potential to have a great year as well. Maybe Reyes too. That can all be wasted if the rest of the lineup is weak.

I love to speculate.
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