Looks like everyone knocked themselves out. Anyway, there was a lot of discussion on another thread about whether or not Happ's option should be picked up. His ERA+ was at 88 going into this game. That's not good, I agree. ERA+ does adjust for the pitchers park, but that's all.

He's pitching in front of one of the worst defences in baseball and throwing to one of worst pitch framers in baseball. Is ERA or even ERA+ accurately reflecting his true talent level?

I'm gonna miss the Cubs.

A very nice riposte by J. A. Happ tonight to those Bauxites who predicted that he'd be gone by the 3rd or 4th inning.

The strike zone today is huge.  Both pitchers have benefited.  In the end, it has probably worked more to Karns' advantage.

Rasmus in CF, Gose to LF?  Seniority, I guess. It is kind of strange with Rasmus riding the pine mostly.

How does a team fighting for it's playoff life get 2-hit in a 1-0 loss? Especially against a team playing for next year, having given this one up.

It is called 'baseball'.  Stuff happens.  Back in 1993 the Jays were in a dogfight for the AL East lead in early September but was swept by a California Angels team that was 59-74 when the series began, scoring just 4 runs over 3 games.  They then lost 3 more against Oakland  (52-83) to make it a scary time (tied for division lead after those horrible games).  They followed that with a 9 game winning streak and effectively ended the race.

What matters is the Jays doing stuff like they've been doing... win 5, lose 2, win 4, lose 1, now a 4-5 game winning streak and things are fine.

Well, Buck and Tabby told the viewers about a thousand times that TB is an AL East team and they won't be laying down for anybody down the stretch. Although true I'm sure, did they have to say it so many times? How do we petition for new announcers? I mean, not only do they struggle with today's era of baseball, Buck, the play by play guy I might add, also struggles badly with simple sentences.

How about SN1 shows the game with just crowd noise and no announcers as a pilot and who knows, maybe it will catch on...

Maybe we should petition Sportsnet to run alternate commentary in French.

Buck is especially strong in math. One if his analogies from last night was something like:

"If he throws 68% fastballs, 43% curveballs and 10% change ups..."

What matters is the Jays doing stuff like they've been doing... win 5, lose 2, win 4, lose 1, now a 4-5 game winning streak and things are fine.

It would certainly help if Gibbons didn't waste Aaron Sanchez in games that they're leading by 6 runs (after getting him up 3x), then having him unavailable for when he was needed (Boston Game 1), or wasting him in games they trailed throughout. Sanchez won't pitch now I assume for the rest of the weekend. The games they should win, like Boston Game 1, they don't.

I can't see Gibbons as the 'go-forward' manager with a group of young arms next year.

Back to Buck, I can't get over how often he simply says the wrong word. "Since the 2008 series, X player is leading the MLB in blank". I think you meant season Buck.

glad i was drinking through last night's game. woulda been too excruciating otherwise.

"He's pitching in front of one of the worst defences in baseball and throwing to one of worst pitch framers in baseball. Is ERA or even ERA+ accurately reflecting his true talent level?"

his era lines right up with his fippy numbers. as it has in past years, with other teams and defenses. safe to say its accurately reflecting his talent level.

It is called 'baseball'. Stuff happens.

There is also the infamous 22-2 loss to the Brewers in late-August of 1992. The Brewers were a decent team that year, but the game was a complete embarrassment for the Blue Jays.

keep swinging at two-strike wild pitches, goins. that's your best bet for getting on base.

And Pillar breaks his maidenhead.

Solid win.  It sure has been a while since the club has faced a left-handed starter.  On the other hand, it's just as well to miss Smyly.

Let me get this straight, now Sanchez is being wasted by pitching 2 innings late in a 1 run game because the Jays were losing? Honestly, if he can't be pitched in that situation what pray tell is an appropriate time?

"his era lines right up with his fippy numbers. as it has in past years, with other teams and defenses. safe to say its accurately reflecting his talent level."

Pitch framing directly affects balls and strikes, which directly affect BB's and K's, which directly affect fippy numbers.

He has not played with a team that graded out with positive defensive stats since he was with the Phillies in 2009. That was the year Happ pitched 166 innings with a 144 ERA+.

IMO Happ is a 95-100 ERA+ pitcher on a neutral team. I'm sure the Jays saber guys will come up with something similar. His option will be picked up, barring something catastrophic.

I can't even think of how to compare the numbers, but at this time of year, one loss needs two wins to recover from. Two straight losses need five games to recover, while three straight losses might never be recovered from.

Until the Jays get ten or more games over .500, scoreboard watching is meaningless, movement is much too slow. Watching accomplishments of the players is very significant, and lots of fun. The final two weeks can be important, they just have to win.

If somehow 350,000 fans attend the 13 games this month, attendance figures might equal last years numbers of 2.5 MM fans. Reports on TV viewership, are up again this year, so complaints there should fall on deaf ears.

While the Red Sox, Twins and Rangers have obviously been mathematically eliminated, you'll notice the ESPN playoff odds gives both the White Sox and the Astros a 0.1 % chance of making the post-season. Don't believe it. Both teams have been mathematically eliminated. It's not a magic number issue, it's a scheduling issue. Essentially, they need some teams to lose every game - but those teams get to play each other.

"Pitch framing directly affects balls and strikes, which directly affect BB's and K's, which directly affect fippy numbers.

He has not played with a team that graded out with positive defensive stats since he was with the Phillies in 2009. That was the year Happ pitched 166 innings with a 144 ERA+.

IMO Happ is a 95-100 ERA+ pitcher on a neutral team. I'm sure the Jays saber guys will come up with something similar. His option will be picked up, barring something catastrophic."



wow that's a pretty crazy leap.

I guess you must think our other starters are all aces in front of neutral D teams.

but then how is it buehrle is having one of the best years of his career with such crappoy D and framing to work with?

what pray tell is an appropriate time?

A game they're leading or tied. Boston Game 1 would have been an example. Today another.

I must be pretty stupid as well as being a crazy leaper, because I don't understand what your point is with Beuhrle.

Are you saying it should make no difference to a pitcher throwing to a substandard pitch framer, while having the league's 24th ranked defence behind him or are you saying it's a good thing? Or are you saying the stats are wrong and the Jays have played well defensively this year and Navarro isn't a poor pitch framer?

Here's a thought - Beuhrle is just a really good pitcher, who's excellent season has nothing to do with how good or bad J. A. Happ is as a pitcher. Max Scherzer won the Cy Young last year with Cabrera at 3rd and Fielder at 1st, who combined for -31 defensive runs. That has nothing to do with J. A. Happ either.

Happ now sits with a 92 ERA+. It may be a crazy leap to you to think he would be in the 95-100 range with a more skilled pitch framer and a better defence. I guess I'm just a crazy leaper.

"A game they're leading or tied"

Next your going to tell me the closer should only be used in a save situation?

"Are you saying it should make no difference to a pitcher throwing to a substandard pitch framer, while having the league's 24th ranked defence behind him or are you saying it's a good thing?"

hey man, you just pulled a brand new defensive adjustment metric out of thin air. i'm just wondering how it works, as i've never heard of it before. we have a whole bunch of established numbers to work with when it comes to accounting for defense for pitchers, and they all say the same thing about happ. your new adjustment seems to be the only one that disagrees.

i mean, we've got a career's worth of data for our 32yr old happ, and it all says the same thing. i don't really think we have to guess anymore.

Magpie wrote "the ESPN playoff odds gives both the White Sox and the Astros a 0.1 % chance of making the post-season. Don't believe it. Both teams have been mathematically eliminated. It's not a magic number issue, it's a scheduling issue. Essentially, they need some teams to lose every game - but those teams get to play each other."

I guess they aren't using a simulation method then.  (Or maybe they are just out of date.)

The simulation method I like is the 50-50 method at http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB2.html.  The Jays make the playoffs in 6.4% of their 2.7 million simulations of the rest of the season.

(In their "weighted" method the Jays just make the playoffs in 1.8% of their 8.3 million simulations, but I trust the 50-50 method more, as the weighted method assumes advance knowledge of which teams are better, etc.  Unfortunately most of the estimates you hear reported seem to be from weighted methods.)

Simple Standings

KCR ---
SEA 1.0
TOR 4.0

If Detroit & all the WC contenders finish with 88 wins then we have a 6 team tie or so for the 2 WC & Central playoff spots.
Toronto has to win 10 of 15 games to do it. The teams above them have to win about half their games. Tough job for the Jays, but it is at least interesting.

If people are going to complain about Sanchez throwing 2 perfect innings in a must-win, one-run game, it's pretty clear there's nothing John Gibbons can do to properly use Sanchez out of the bullpen. Perhaps some of you can preemptively write a guide to how young arms should be deployed; the arrogance displayed in questioning the moves is simply incredible. I guess when you've been this wrong on the Jays' 2014 competitiveness, Melky maintaining an everyday job past May and setting himself up for a huge FA contract, and Stroman's ability to start (among others) you have to grasp at (what you perceive to be) poor managerial decisions to let everyone know how smart you are.

Did anyone at or watching the game see what the CF Kiermaier did on Lind's HR yesterday? I was sitting right behind home and Lind smashed the ball, but the CF tried to decoy the runner, Bautista, into thinking it was a playable ball. The ball cleared the fence comfortably and it was clear the CF had no play on the ball. Seeing an OF do that really pisses me off - it can lead to a serious injury for the base runner, and it's seriously bush league. I'd throw at KK today if the right situation arises today to send a message.

It's September 14th and the games still matter. It's a strange, foreign feeling, even if they are only 5% or so to make the playoffs. I expected to be tuned into the NFL by now, not still watching MLB games on a Sunday afternoon. It's something at least, and even if the Jays don't make the playoffs hopefully this year was something positive to build on for 2015, when they can bring back a very similar team with the young pitching having a year of experience under their belts.

Lind is now hitting 328/394/492 (148 wRC+) and is up to 1.5 fWAR in 284 PA. His wRC+ isn't far off Bautista's this year (156). Pretty nice to have that on hand in a must-win game.

Considering that a win in free agency is currently worth about $7M ($/WAR), Lind is providing solid value, even with his DL stint. And the Jays are getting that value on a one-year contract with further one-year options. Maybe his trade value is now rising to the point at which he'll command a strong return this off-season, assuming the team opts to trade him.

In any event, I'm glad the Jays didn't trade him for a negligible return to free up cash for someone like Mark Ellis (-0.3 fWAR in 198 PA).

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cost-of-a-win-in-the-2014-off-season/

I don't hate Lind by any stretch, but my preference would be to qualify Melky/bring him back and use him as a full time DH. Use that Lind money on another OF or just shift a re-signed Colby to LF and put Gose in CF.

"....I guess when you've been this wrong on the Jays' 2014 competitiveness, Melky maintaining an everyday job past May and setting himself up for a huge FA contract, and Stroman's ability to start (among others) you have to grasp at (what you perceive to be) poor managerial decisions to let everyone know how smart you are...."

There's also the guy who predicted confidently that Juan Francisco would out-hit Valencia in September, when it was fairly clear that Francisco has already lost the trust of the Jays management because of his defensive weaknesses and hitting slump.  (Francisco has exactly 1 plate appearance so far this month.  I guess this will be blamed on managerial decisions too.)

A lot of fans have been very wrong in a lot of their predictions about the Jays this year -- wrong about the team's collective performance and wrong about the individual performances in many cases. Most fans saw the Jays as, at best, a .500 team with little hope of contending. Most fans thought the starting rotation was weak, when in reality it has performed far better in 2014 than it did last season and is emerging as potentially one of the best in the league next season.  Most fans thought the Jays had emptied their farm system in their 2012-13 trades, yet the farm system has been a pipeline of excellent prospects since then.  Most fans wanted the Jays to acquire free agents who have actually performed quite poorly in 2014.  (Mea culpa, because I was in the latter camp too.)

I'm sure Gibbons has made his fair share of mistakes this season.  That's pretty inevitable for anyone who has to make so many daily decisions on lineups, starting pitchers, bullpen usage, pinch-hitting, bunting, etc, etc.   Each of those decisions is a gamble, based on many factors, and will often go wrong, so the post-facto attacks on those decisions are inevitable, and often unfair.  It's fine to debate decisions, but I don't get the scathing attacks on Gibbons.  Why should he withhold Sanchez from almost every relief situation because of the possibility that he might be more usefully deployed 3 days from now?  (My own comment during the Boston series was that Gibbons could be reasonably criticized if the bullpen collapsed 3 days later without Sanchez -- but I also think he could be reasonably defended too, since that collapse was genuinely unpredictable and really shouldn't have happened in any rational scenario. There's also the fact that Sanchez's playing time is definitely influenced by considerations of his age, his innings, his rest times, his health, etc, which we aren't entirely privy to.)

I completely get the frustration of fans who haven't seen the Jays in the playoffs for two decades.  But at the same time, there is so much random luck in baseball, so much that depends on the bounce of a ball or a fraction of an inch, so much that depends on injuries and unpredictable slumps or random breakthroughs by unexpected players.  With all those factors at play, it's difficult to blame management for every result of every game.  In my view, it's better just to enjoy the September games and the theoretical playoff chances and the great performances of the emerging young Jays -- and, yes, to debate the managerial decisions, but perhaps without quite as much vitriol as we sometimes see.

I struggle with the whole paying for WAR concept in general, but definitely in a scenario like Lind's. WAR doesn't incorporate the fact that the Jays need to carry another player to make Lind effective - if he was facing LHP his stats (and WAR) would be dragged down drastically. There's more value in a player like Prado's WAR than in a player like Lind's, in my view. Also, WAR is kind of ridiculous in general - it thinks Mark Buehrle is worth his contract. Okay.

It would be nice if the Jays operated under payroll parameters where paying 7.5m for an oft-injured and slow-footed platoon DH was a no-brainer, but I don't believe they do. With Melky likely on the way out I do think Lind will be retained, though. If the Jays are going to be rolling with youth in LF-CF they are going to need to get the offense from somewhere, and Lind will look like the most attractive option in the winter compared to the expensive FAs.

last 2yrs vs RHP, minimum 100pa:

OPS

1. M.Trout 1019pa, .973
2. D.Ortiz 776pa, .967
3. Mi.Cabrera 943pa, .957
4. J.Abreu 420pa, .953
5. C.Davis 794pa, .950
6. A.Lind 669pa, .945

wRC+

1. M.Trout 1019pa, +173
2. Mi.Cabrera 943pa, +162
3. J.Abreu 420pa, +161
4. A.Lind 669pa, +159

that's all mlb, not just al.

"Also, WAR is kind of ridiculous in general - it thinks Mark Buehrle is worth his contract. Okay."

if not WAR, what numbers are you looking at to say Buehrle ISN'T worth his contract?

he's on track for 200ip of 3.30era (118era+), after all.

"There's also the guy who predicted confidently that Juan Francisco would out-hit Valencia in September, when it was fairly clear that Francisco has already lost the trust of the Jays management because of his defensive weaknesses and hitting slump. (Francisco has exactly 1 plate appearance so far this month. I guess this will be blamed on managerial decisions too.)"

well, i'm not sure francisco would have much trouble besting valencia's robust .602ops in september, if given the chance.

Did anyone at or watching the game see what the CF Kiermaier did on Lind's HR yesterday? I was sitting right behind home and Lind smashed the ball, but the CF tried to decoy the runner, Bautista, into thinking it was a playable ball. The ball cleared the fence comfortably and it was clear the CF had no play on the ball. Seeing an OF do that really pisses me off - it can lead to a serious injury for the base runner, and it's seriously bush league. I'd throw at KK today if the right situation arises today to send a message.

I saw it on the highlight of Lind's homer. Outfielders do that all the time on balls they know are going over their head. I don't think it's seen as bush league. They're trying to slow the baserunners down.

It's bush league when the ball is clearly leaving the yard. If you think it's staying in the park, by all means. It didn't appear to me he was playing it as such.

"...well, i'm not sure francisco would have much trouble besting valencia's robust .602ops in september, if given the chance..."

Francisco was given the chance in 17 games in August.  His OPS in August was a robust .392.  More than 200 points below Valencia's OPS in September.  So, yeah.

Uglyone, are you suggesting the Jays can trade Buehrle for value this winter without eating any of his contract? That would be awesome, and it could free up 20m that is needed badly to improve the roster. I love Buehrle, but he is not worth 1/6th of the 2015 payroll.

It's bush league when the ball is clearly leaving the yard. If you think it's staying in the park, by all means. It didn't appear to me he was playing it as such.

I don't know if it was clearly leaving the yard though. I'll watch the reply again to see how far it went. The CF must have thought there was a chance it would hit the wall or something, otherwise there really isn't a point to the decoy.

"Uglyone, are you suggesting the Jays can trade Buehrle for value this winter without eating any of his contract? That would be awesome, and it could free up 20m that is needed badly to improve the roster. I love Buehrle, but he is not worth 1/6th of the 2015 payroll."

why would they trade one of the better pitchers in baseball this year?

"....I love Buehrle, but he is not worth 1/6th of the 2015 payroll...."

The real solution is to increase the payroll, so that Buehrle represents a smaller fraction of the payroll.  I'm still hoping for a payroll increase.  The owners can afford it, and it would be a smart investment in a sporting product that has generated rising revenue, rising attendance and rising television audiences in the past couple of years. 

One reason would be to sell high (if the Jays thought that Buehrle's 2014 represented a career year for him. Ideally, the Jays would find a trading partner with cash to burn and some interesting assets to send back in return.

Low HR/fly rate that he's unlikely to maintain next year, and maybe his age worries you a bit too - you don't want to be stuck holding the bag when he turns into 50-year-old Jamie Moyer. The reasons you don't trade him are pretty obvious too: durability, reliability, established performance that's pretty good as it is, and perhaps the fact that the defense will improve in 2015 because it has no choice.

in the end, it comes down to your payroll parameters and what's being offered (as usual). I do think his contract has positive value (and feel free to bookmark this thread for reference next May in case he's on a 7.00 ERA).

I don't think it's seen as bush league.

It's bush if the ball's obviously out of play, but it's often hard to tell from the broadcast. You need to be at the park.

Sanchez throwing 2 perfect innings in a must-win, one-run game

If Sanchez is your best relief pitcher, and he's certainly pitching like it, that sounds like the ideal use to make of him.

Pitch framing directly affects balls and strikes

Yes, and it's certainly a Sign of Progress that we're actually beginning to learn something about it. People have always scoffed at Catcher ERA - with good reason, I admit - and the examination of framing has provided some reasons why people like Jose Molina and Brian McCann consistently do well in an unreliable, fluke stat.

But the atom hasn't been split. This is a new metric and the samples are all pretty small (because it's also going to be impacted significantly by that day's home plate umpire.) And performance in this area - just like defence, just like offense, just like pitching - is unlikely to be consistent from year to year. This will further muddy the issue. It's good to know, but what catchers do defensively is still mostly a mystery. And much of it is simply impossible to actually measure. I say Respect The Fog.

If people are going to complain about Sanchez throwing 2 perfect innings in a must-win, one-run game, it's pretty clear there's nothing John Gibbons can do to properly use Sanchez out of the bullpen

Although I'm kind of over this issue, as this site's lone member of the Conservative Aaron Sanchez Usage Party (the half-true political cartoons have me saying "We're still out of it! Don't use him at all!") I must issue a statement on Friday's game. I thought using him for two innings on Friday was perfectly fine. I actually would've had him pitching the 7th and 8th, perhaps not the 9th. What irritates me is seeing them warm Sanchez up and sit him down repeatedly - overuse that doesn't show up in the box score. As long as they act decisively and don't have him throwing three innings' worth of warmup pitches a game, there's no real problem here.

What irritates me is seeing them warm Sanchez up and sit him down repeatedly - overuse that doesn't show up in the box score.

That makes me crazy as well.

buehrle

2014: 118era+ (~200ip pace)
2013: 99era+ (203.2ip)
2012: 109era+ (202.1ip)
2011: 121era+ (205.2ip)
2010: 100era+ (210.1ip)

2yr Avg: ~202ip, ~110era+
3yr Avg: ~202ip, ~110era+
5yr Avg: ~205ip, ~110era+

All of which makes 35-year-old Buehrle a potentially good trade candidate.

Players are valuable trade commodities until they're not. Cliff Lee in 2014 is a good example. You want to move them before they hit that wall.

we should trade away all our good players, then.

Right, because that's the logical conclusion to my point about Buehrle.

I think people often use "should we trade X?" as a way to discuss "is X overrated?" while distancing themselves from any affinity for Around the Horn, or Chuck Klosterman.

i think people keep bringing up buehrle's age to portray him as a high risk investment, but i'd argue that he's one of the lowest risk players in baseball.

ach. top of the order down on 7 pitches.

not looking good right now.

Will the Jays talk to Buehrle about a contract extension? I think it should be considered. With better offensive protection, but not a lot, Buehrle wins 3-5 more games this year. That makes him an effective pitcher. His problems this year, bullpen issues, defensive lapses and offensive deficiencies caused him problems than the opponents did. Trading him is wasteful, as you'll never gets his true value back in trade.

When the Jays go "all or nothing" with their HR attempts or try to do " more than they can" do losing streaks occur. I fully expect the Jays to lose the game and with it the season. Until the players stop swinging at pitcher's pitches and start swing at only pitches they can hit, this futile period won't pass. At this time of their career they should know what they can hit and what they cannot hit. If they can't, trade them for someone who can, or who will.

don't listen to buck and his "hr or nothing" theory.

jays are top five in batting average and obp. they are not a HR-only offense at all. they are really good at hitting homers too, though.

With better offensive protection, but not a lot, Buehrle wins 3-5 more games this year. That makes him an effective pitcher.

With better offensive support, pretty well any major league starter would win 2-3 more games a year. But how many runs his team's hitters score on the day someone pitches doesn't really have very much to do with whether someone is an effective pitcher. And anyway - the Jays have averaged 5.03 runs per game when Buehrle pitches. Which is a lot. Only 4 AL starters have been better supported (Wilson, Richards, Scherzer, and Chen.) They haven't scored all those runs while he's been in the game, but he certainly hasn't been badly supported by his team's offense. Quite the reverse.

well, we do have the righty bats to potentially neutralize lefty mcgee here.

we could go

mayberry
valencia
tolleson
pillar

here in the bottom of the 9th.

heh. so he sticks with rasmus. of course.

i think people keep bringing up Buehrle's age to portray him as a high risk investment, but i'd argue that he's one of the lowest risk players in baseball.

I agree completely. His contract is a little rich, but he's not going to lose a foot off his fastball and be ineffective. He plays a different game. He's unlikely to get hurt. (He probably doesn't throw hard enough to hurt himself.) He will decline - he has already declined - but he's not going to go over a cliff. He's embarking on a long, leisurely slide into mediocrity and he's still got a fair ways to go.

MAYDAY MAYDAY MAYDAY

top of the order coming up in the tenth. please don't give back a lead, bullpen.

What a big swing. Let's not let that one go to waste now...

With better offensive support, pretty well any major league starter would win 2-3 more games a year.

For example - Clayton Kershaw is 18-3 this year. How could his record look any better? Easy. Kershaw has 5 starts this year in which he's worked at least 7 innings and allowed exactly 3 earned runs. He's won none of those games. Zero. He's 0-2 with three no-decisions. Every pitcher can tell this same tale.

sigh. same old morrow.

so sick of this guy.

Lead off walks

If there was any remote chance that the Jays were going to pick up Morrow's option, it might have ended there.

I really hope the Jays wouldn't make a decision like that based on a walk and a single after a clean 1-2-3 inning.

so morrow returns from injury just in time to cost us the season.

don't know whether to laugh or cry.

what a bum he is.

At this point I guess you cheer for the A's this afternoon and hope for KC to collapse and hope we have a chance when we play Seattle for 4 games.

just in time to cost us the season.

Silly things are often said in the heat of the moment. This is Loss #71. They're all created equal.

What upset me was Bautista's at-bat in the 10th. He's fallen into a habit of almost automatically availing himself of his 3-0 green lights. But that was a really selfish and situationally unaware swing with Edwin in the hole.

And there is the difference between Adam Lind and the elite hitters in baseball, despite the statistical rankings vs. RHP - in the bottom of the 10th inning he gets pinch-hit for with a rookie with no plate discipline.

Tough loss, that should just about do it.

"....I really hope the Jays wouldn't make a decision like that based on a walk and a single after a clean 1-2-3 inning...."

The lead-off walk, in exactly the wrong moment of the game, is the kind of thing that a good pitcher should be able to avoid.  Throw strikes, let them hit it, trust your defence.  Of course by itself it's not enough to decide his Blue Jays future, but it's a reminder of his career 4.2 BB/9 and the issues that have plagued him in his worst years.

"And there is the difference between Adam Lind and the elite hitters in baseball, despite the statistical rankings vs. RHP - in the bottom of the 10th inning he gets pinch-hit for with a rookie with no plate discipline."

the other difference being lind costs $7m, not $25m.

Lind has the best wRC+ against RHP (175) in the majors this year (minimum PA: 200), and it's not close. That is outstanding. Last off-season, when I argued for picking up his $7M option, I got slammed - lots of people wanted the Jays to either not pick up his option, or to pick it up and trade him for a modest return (perhaps for a passable relief arm) in order to clear about $5M in salary space.

In the result, he has been a top-tier platoon DH from the preferred side of the plate. He has been very valuable for the relatively modest amount he's being paid on a one-year contract. It seems churlish to now fault him for not being a good hitter against LHP or for the Jays' other roster decisions that result in unsatisfying pinch-hitting outcomes.

The Jays wouldn't be able to afford someone better than Lind, but they should have a proper platoon mate for Lind.

Buehrle is about even on the money.  If AA can trade him for a decent prospect or young player, let's say a solid 2B that can hit, he should absolutely do it.

Bautista will swing if he sees a good pitch. It's up to the coach to make the decision here, no Joey Bats.

I didn't even know there was such a thing as a "top tier platoon DH."

John Mayberry Jr.  Two huge clutch hits, two heartbreaking losses.  There's only so much you can do, as a GM.  Every silver lining seems to have a very dark cloud ready to make it disappear.

I was following today's game on Gameday while performing one of those all-day chores.  I left the game at 5-1 top 8.  I check back on it about an hour later.  The partial score as I scrolled down on the PDA read: "Tampa 6 F/10".  There was that delicious moment of tension about whether it would be Toronto 5 or Toronto 7.  In my heart, I knew it was the former before I scrolled down.

I liked the decision to bring Sanchez into the game on Friday trailing 1-0 in the eighth for two innings.  It's a medium leverage situation, which is fine, and I approve of the 2 inning stint. 

Actually, in 2014 Lind has been a top-tier DH, full stop (148 wRC+ before today's game). He just happens to have extreme L/R splits that favour Lind in most pitching matchups.

The bottom line is value (1.5 fWAR in 284 PA before today's game), which speaks for itself. Without the fracture to his foot, you might be looking at 2-3 fWAR from a player on a 1/$7m contract. Even with the injury, the Jays are coming out ahead. However you choose to categorize Lind as a player, that's a valuable asset.

Last post on Lind. Excluding today's stats, here are the top 11 ML hitters against RHP this year (200 PA minimum), by wRC+:

1. Lind 175
2. Trout 167
3. McCutchen 165
4. Brantley 163
5. Abreu 161
6. Duda 158
7. Cano 154
8. Puig 154
9. Freeman 153
10. Turner 153
11. EE 153

Last year Lind was 10th on the list (400 PA minimum) with a wRC+ of 150.

I don't have a problem with a Lind/Mayberry platoon next season. To me, the bigger issue is going to be SS, catcher, LF, and CF. Reyes needs to be moved over to 2B or 3B ASAP. He's done as a SS. Navarro is a lazy pitch framing nightmare and doesn't hit well enough to compensate for it. Gose is not a good hitter and it's questionable whether he can maintain his walk rate going forward (I doubt it). Obviously LF is a hole with Melky as a free agent.

Lind is not one of this team's problems.

Lind has options and had a very good year despite injuries. The pessimists and nay-sayers don't want him back because he's not worth 5 WAR and costs $7.0-ish MM. They say let him go, let's save the money. The optimists and yes-men want him back because he's ours. The ones who don't care either way, want him back because he had a good year and comes at a good price.

Sanchez's use, is also letting use find out how good his is, in all kind of situations. With the offseason approaching, it's unknown what A.A. could do. But as A.A. said, "It all depends on what we do in the Offseason." He's also said Sanchez would spent time in the Bullpen in 2015 to manage his hours. Sanchez ending up as Closer isn't that much of a stretch. He'd make a better starter, but might be better as Closer.
I personally think the season's over, as any chance of the team going unbeaten over the last 12 games is impossible, they're not good enough.

I have no problem with the Jays trading Lind if it makes the team better.

If the team can find a good two-way first baseman to replace him (with EE DHing), great. But good two-way first basemen aren't all that easy to acquire. Speaking of defensive upgrades, I would still like to see the Jays add Martin, with Navarro complementing him at C (perhaps with some starts at DH). I like that he would bring both high-quality defense and some redundancy at the position. I like having an abundance of quality players, Dodgers-style. It beats hoping that everyone stays healthy and meets or exceeds expectations.

A.A. and Gibbons will move Jose Reyes off SS when Jose is ready to move off SS and not before. Alex Rodrigues is a better SS now than Derek Jeter ever was, but guess who stayed SS. Same reason Reyes stays.

With a healthy Brett Lawrie at 3B and Ryan Goins at 2B, Reyes becomes a better SS as the range he must cover is smaller.

So, Jays now 4 games back of KC for that last slot, 5 1/2 behind Oakland, 3 back of Seattle for the 'close but no cigar' slot.  Tragic number (number of Jays loses and KC wins for the Jays to be eliminated) is 11.  For the AL East it is down to 3.  Jays still up by 1 game on the Yankees, the only other AL East team still technically in the race.

Reyes needs to move off short. He may not want to, but the team needs to do it. If they can find a way to get an established SS, then Reyes might be more accepting of it. Not sure who is out there that fits that description other than Elvis Andrus who the Rangers would probably move to make room for Profar. Andrus has a very long contract (8 more years plus an option) but he'll be 26 next season and the long contract might make him easier to acquire. Won't happen if Beeston is still here obviously, but make a move for a player like that and Reyes will move to 2B. If he doesn't, then trade him.

The complications of a Reyes positional move have been discussed before. Rare is the star player who readily moves to a less demanding position, at least not without a couple of years of lead up to the actual change (seed gets planted, idea gets floated in public, star player eventually buys in, etc.). Puckett, Hunter, Ripken and Griffey were 33, 34, 35 and 37 when they finally moved. Jeter was, oops, never mind.

And in the Jays' case, there's not an obvious player pushing his way into the position. A Jurickson Profar in AAA might hasten the requisite narrative. A Ryan Goins won't.

Further, has anyone in the media made even slight grumblings about Reyes' defense? (They may have, I just haven't heard.) It seems that the idea of a star changing positions must hit the zeitgeist before it can gain any traction. Those in this forum complain about Reyes' defense. But does anyone else?

The other day Buck Martinez was on a talk show on the radio while I was driving.  He expressed several opinions including that the Jays needed to make changes and that Reyes had lost a step at short.  

A few games ago, there was a very strange routine play.  A ground ball was hit just to Reyes' left on the shortstop side of the bag; Goins cut in front of him and threw across his body for the out. Reyes was moving slowly but probably would have made the play easily anyways.

Jeff Blair has a story about Reyes today. He says the Jays plan for 2015 is to give Reyes more rest, play him at DH more often, and hope the new turf at the RC will help out his injuries.

In my opinion, Reyes doesn't need to move off of SS. I don't see anything Reyes does well on defense that would translate to 2B, and his offense looks worse at 3B (or a corner OF spot). Obviously, if the Jays could acquire a better SS, then you think about moving him, but his balance of skills is still OK for SS if he isn't done being an above average hitter.

The Jays aren't being done in by Reyes at SS, overall the main "problem" for this slightly above average team is that the fielding in general is well below average which offsets much of the offensive advantage they get from the position players, and the entire pitching staff has been a case study in averageness this year.

Of course, no one on the team is having a surprisingly good year (Bautista? Sanchez lately I guess). Actually, no one is having a particularly surprising bad season either. Even the most likely injury candidates (Lind, Lawrie, Morrow) have been out the most. The ups and downs have been fun (and terrible), but the overall end point seems so predictable. Magpie alluded to his annual report card last week - I sense a lot of B- to C+ grades.

If Reyes could play left-field, he'd be better off there.  I subscribe to the view that you don't want to put a poor defensive shortstop out there behind young pitchers.  Messes with their heads and slows development. When the Rays moved Upton to centerfield and acquired Jason Bartlett, I knew they were serious.

AWeb - definitely want to add Stroman and possibly Beuhrle (although he's dropped off in the 2nd half) to the surprisingly good list.

It's easy to imagine Reyes getting hurt as an outfielder, especially given his inexperience at the position.

Reyes recently disclosed that he's been playing with a sore hamstring for the past few weeks.  I don't expect that fact to influence any of the critics who are already convinced that he is defensively weak, but in fairness it ought to be taken into consideration, especially if anyone has been judging his defense on what they've seen in the past few weeks.  I've seen people commenting on plays that he has made (or not made) in the past few weeks, and those plays are almost certainly affected by his hamstring.  That's not to say that he's the ideal shortstop for the Jays in 2015, but his hitting makes up for a lot.  And his defence probably isn't as bad as some people think, when injuries and turf are taken into fair consideration. 

definitely want to add Stroman and possibly Beuhrle (although he's dropped off in the 2nd half) to the surprisingly good list. Buerhle is the opposite of a surprise to me, in aggregate. 200 innings of 105-115 ERA+ has to be what you expect from him, even if it's hard to believe watching him throw 83mph fastballs. Until he doesn't do it, any other expectation seems wrong. Stroman I suppose, although I see the surprise as being the Jays letting him pitch - his results have always good. I forget that his starting numbers are still dragged down by the terrible relief appearances (although of course those appearances counted).

for all the talk of defense and pitch framing you'd think these guys would look worse than this:

buehrle 115era+
stroman 109
dickey 102
happ 92
hutch 90

mcgowan 93
morrow 72

Sanchez 305
jenkins 155
redmond 137
cecil 136
loup 129
janssen 95
delabar 81
santos 46

and its not like we're giving up an inordinate of unearned runs, either.

Tony Fernandez (for example) moved off short in 1994 at age 32. Reyes turns 32 next season and I'd say Tony was a better shortstop in 1993 than Reyes was in 2013-14. Using Tony as an example since he was a Jay and a great defensive SS. Just find an upgrade defensively at short and move Reyes over. I know he is a "star" and all that, but he is hurting the team defensively and no longer hits like he used to (though still a good hitter).

If he is unwilling to move, or the team is too scared to ask him, then it really doesn't benefit the team at all.

If he is unwilling to move, or the team is too scared to ask him, then it really doesn't benefit the team at all.

I think you are underestimating how sensitive management is to the egos of its players and how cautious they are about acting in a way that could be deemed disrespectful. Colby Rasmus, who can safely be presumed to be on his way out and thus has no reason to be handled with kid gloves, still gets dibs on center field ahead of Pillar and Gose those few times he plays the field any more.

I may be underestimating how amenable to a position change Reyes might be, but my guess is that it would be a big deal to sell to him.

Do you think that there could be potential clubhouse implications of asking Reyes to move? I'm mostly thinking of Bautista and Edwin here. Given that the Jays don't have anyone lined up at SS, and seem pretty set at 3b, I don't see that moving him helps. Trading him maybe - I'd call the Yankees, but moving him just creates another hole.

The Blue Jays in 2014 have surrendered 4.28 runs/ game.  League average is 4.15.  The ballpark hurts them some, but nonetheless the overall run prevention number is slightly below average.  The team defence by all measures that I am aware of  has been below average.  The major contributors to the below-average defence by consensus in order were Reyes, Rasmus, Francisco and the first basemen.  Reyes' defence has been demonstrably bad for years.  Rasmus' defence has fluctuated over the years, and it has been easily visible when he is "on" and when he is "off". 

The previous comment does not address pitch-framing, which is much foggier. According to StatsCorner, Navarro's pitch-framing numbers 2011-2014 by number of calls are: -19, +5, -28, -137.  Interestingly, when Navarro last logged this much work (with Tampa) in 2009, he was +35.  A good portion of the Blue Jay pitch framing numbers may result from the pitchers missing the target wildly.  One missed strike from Happ's last start was a pitch that was supposed to be up and away.  The pitch was a clear strike low and inside, but because Navarro had to stab at it he made it look further insider than it was.  There is no question that this staff is wilder than most, particularly in the bullpen.  Nonetheless, Kratz' numbers were much better than Navarro's, and subjectively he was much better at it. 

Tony Fernandez (for example) moved off short in 1994 at age 32.

It wasn't his idea, of course, and he wasn't quite done as a shortstop. Fernandez was a free agent after 1993 and had trouble landing a job. He ended up signing a one-year deal with Barry Larkin's team, so he played 3b for a year. He signed with Yankees for 1995 and went back to playing in shortstop. But the next year he hurt his elbow, missed the entire 1997 season, and the Yankees replaced him with a rookie. That was it for him at ss. He spent 1997 playing 2b for Cleveland, where he made a famous error in the 7th game of the World Series. He came here in 1998 and spent the first half of the season demonstrating that he no longer had the range to cover 2b either.

I would suggest that if there's one lesson history has taught us, if there's one thing we know for sure, it's that you can win championships with a good-hitting shortstop who plays below average defense.

when Navarro last logged this much work (with Tampa) in 2009, he was +35.

That was also Navarro's fourth season with the Rays. I don't know if anyone's investigated it, but I would expect a catcher's pitch framing to take some kind of hit when he switches teams.

Perhaps - but those teams didn't win championships because they had weak defense at SS; rather, they won despite that weak defense.

I sense a lot of B- to C+ grades.

All is tentative at this point. I've got one A, one A-, and one F. Overall, it's looking quite a bit like a classic bell curve.

they won despite that weak defense.

For sure, but pretty well every championship team has some pretty significant weaknesses somewhere. You make up for it elsewhere. (The 1992 Jays had average at best defense and downright bad hitting from their shortstop.)

I'm not wild about moving Reyes to 3b. As a defensive player, the shape of Reyes' skill set is quite a bit like Jeter's: good arm, good sprint speed, below average quickness. At third, one of the player's strengths is taken out of the picture while his central weakness actually becomes an even larger part of his defensive game. While I think Jeter would have been a brilliant centre fielder, I think he would been a God-awful third baseman.

Just because teams won with poor defenders doesn't mean you keep a bad defender at a critical spot. If you can improve defensively, then do it.

Otherwise you're either stuck with Reyes in his declining years at short, where there is really no way to maximize his value, or you trade him for Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier because no one will take his salary outright.

If I know I'm stuck with a bad defensive SS for three years and $22M per, I'd spend as much time as I could to find out where I can put him in order to get the best return.

i'd lean to giving As to all of bautista, stroman, buehrle, cabrera, maybe redmond too.

thing is there's a good number of easy Fs, too, in morrow, santos, delabar, rogers, izturis (at least).

"If I know I'm stuck with a bad defensive SS for three years and $22M per, I'd spend as much time as I could to find out where I can put him in order to get the best return."

i might invest in StickyTurf™, myself.

I suppose I mainly think there are more pressing problems to solve than the shortstop's defense. Which is hard to solve anyway because of the absence of a replacement and the difficulty involved in moving that contract. The team still doesn't have a second baseman and in two weeks they won't have a centre fielder.

If Reyes is going to field like a 31 year old Jeter, it would help if he hit like one. 

Izturis an F? If so, that list of F's also includes Sierra, Glenn, Mastroianni, Diaz, Getz, Goins, Reimold, Johnson and Pillar, at the very least.

A bit too much fear over Reyes defense I think.  Is he weak on d? Sure. But with Lawrie at 3B (next year) and Goins often at 2B you are fine as they will cover tons of ground. 

Now, if someone would take Reyes in a trade so the Jays could avoid those ugly $20+ mil bills for him each of the next few years that would be nice, but then SS becomes a hole that needs filling which might be more difficult to find.

sure you can call those guys an F, but none of those guys had a $3m multi-year contract like izturis did.

"....If Reyes is going to field like a 31 year old Jeter, it would help if he hit like one...."

He's the lead-off hitter.  His job is to get on base.  Over the past two years as a Jay, he has an OBP of .338 and an OPS of .747.   FanGraphs has him as the top-hitting shortstop in the league this year.  Feel free to criticize his defence, but I think it's irrational to criticize his offence too.

Checking Reyes at FanGraphs vs other shortstops...
WAR: #10 overall, #5 in AL
Offense: #1 in AL (6.3 vs #2 Aybar 4.4, just 3 of 10 are over 0), #5 in majors (Ramirez, Peralta, Desmond, Castro ahead of him)

So his offense would be very hard to replace, his defense (-3.2) not so hard.  Peralta sure would've been a nice signing after his PED catch last summer eh?  $53 mil over 4 years (front loaded).  Reyes over the same time frame will make $82 million plus a $4 mil buyout for 2018 or $22 mil club option.

Reyes is a good player, just not $22 mil of good imo.  FanGraphs has him at $13.5 mil this year and worth $20+ in 2011, 2008, 2007, 2006.

I know what he has done.  Others have suggested that he is like a mid-career Jeter in some respects.  It's true, but in other ways, he is not nearly as good.  Which makes his defensive failings much harder to stomach.  

Reyes would be my opening day left-fielder in 2015.  He would spend the off-season learning the position and I am pretty sure that he would do well there.  I know that means that the club would need both a shortstop and a second baseman, but I think that they would be better off taking money allocated for Cabrera for infielders.

Different lineup against the lefty.  An outfield of Pillar, Bautista, Mayberry.  Tolleson and Valencia at the corners.  Why Gibbons would put Bautista in CF and Pillar in LF is unclear. 

one thing i'll say about reyes is that it seemed like forever we were looking for a real leadoff hitter and its kinda nice being able to just pencil this guy in there no matter what, and deservedly.

Daydream police: Reyes, Lind and Hutchison to the White Sox for Alexei Ramirez and Adam Eaton. Who says no?

The White Sox probably.  That's a lotta bananas.

I assume that playing in the OF on turf is tougher on the body than playing in the INF on turf, so I might hesitate to moves Reyes to the OF, although I agree that it's probably his best position right now.

"....Others have suggested that he is like a mid-career Jeter in some respects.  It's true, but in other ways, he is not nearly as good...."

I don't get why Jeter would be used as a benchmark or measuring stick. It seems like a deliberate way of minimizing the contributions that Reyes makes.  Why not just evaluate Reyes on his own merits, without comparing him to legendary Hall of Fame type players?  On his own merits, Reyes is an excellent lead-off hitter and one of the best-hitting shortstops in the majors.  While I mentioned his OBP in my last post, I neglected to mention his stolen bases: 41 in his two years as a Jay.  Another nice thing to have in a lead-off hitter and a shortstop.

Izturis an F? If so, that list of F's also includes Sierra, Glenn, Mastroianni, Diaz, Getz, Goins, Reimold, Johnson and Pillar, at the very least.

Nah, none of those guys.

Jeter is used as a measuring stick because he was a superstar shortstop who had a (puzzling) mid-career defensive trough.  He also had (as Magpie points out) a similar skill set, although at the same age, I think that Jeter's first step was even slower and his arm was more powerful and dependable.

Reyes had a frustrating season.  The nadir, for me, was the play immediately before the one on which Encarnacion tore his quadriceps. It was a failure to tag at third base; the Oakland announcers were all over him for it.  The following play Encaranacion tore his quad running very hard to avoid getting doubled up with a runner on third.

Right, so let's compare Reyes unfavorably to an all-time superstar, then blame him for Encarnacion's injury, and then insist that Reyes had a "frustrating" season even though he's the top-hitting shortstop in the league and the best lead-off hitter that the Jays have had in years.

"and hope the new turf at the RC will help out his injuries."

I chuckled at this one. It feels like the Jays announce a "softer" turf every single season.

Santos is the obvious F, at least to me -- just for that Minnesota game alone. I just felt that calling Izturis an F was unfair. He got hurt on a freakish injury, and at least contributed something positive before that.

Jeter aside, I think fans have every right to be frustrated with the production the team has received from Reyes, considering the trade that was made for the luxury of taking on his contract. It's easy to categorize Reyes as the best hitting SS in the league, but when you look a little closer you see that's specific to the AL, and that he's essentially on par with Aybar, Hardy, and Ramirez with the stick, and that all 3 are much better defenders. I'm sure a lecture is coming about how Reyes is going to finish with 3 WAR and therefore he's worth his contract, but personally I think the Jays need to be getting quite a bit more out of a 20m player that they parted with assets to take on because they couldn't just sign him as a FA the offseason before.

I too love that they can pencil in Reyes at leadoff every day (at least for as long as he's on the field), but that doesn't mean I can't be frustrated with the production they've received from Reyes given the expectations one could have reasonably had for him. I agree strongly with the sentiment that you can't move him off SS unless he brings up the subject with you, assuming you don't have a flashy name to replace him there with.

I should've also pointed out this is Reyes' worst offensive season since he was a rookie. I really don't think this is the player AA thought he was trading for, despite Reyes' still solid BA/OBP for a SS. They need to figure out the best way to milk more elite production out of him, and I'm sure everyone has a different theory as to how to best approach that.

Those are solid points.  I think the problem with Reyes/Buehrle/Dickey is simply that their performance has been about 10% or 20% less than what the Jays had hoped for.  Each of them has performed quite well -- but not quite at the stellar level that the Jays needed from them if they were going to lead the team to the playoffs.  Perhaps that was predictable, considering their age.  But the trades were still worth a shot, in my view.

"I should've also pointed out this is Reyes' worst offensive season since he was a rookie."


1. 2011 586pa, 142wrc+
2. 2008 763pa, 118wrc+
3. 2006 703pa, 116wrc+
4. 2013 419pa, 113wrc+
5. 2012 716pa, 108wrc+
6. 2009 166pa, 103wrc+
7. 2014 602pa, 102wrc+
8. 2010 603pa, 102wrc+
9. 2003 292pa, 102wrc+
10. 2007 765pa, 101wrc+
11. 2005 733pa, 80wrc+
12. 2004 229pa, 64wrc+

pretty typical offense from him, actually.

I think last year's ankle injury messed with Reyes. At the time, he was on his way to a brilliant offensive season. Still a solid offensive player, but perhaps not quite the complete player he was at the time he mangled his ankle.

Absolutely, CF, it beat the alternative of prodding along with Yunel Escobar at SS and a rotation of Romero-Morrow-Alvarez-Happ if management wasn't going to be allowed to spend on free agents to improve the team. And the trade certainly isn't over; there's still a good enough base here that this team can be competitive in 2015 with Reyes, Dickey, and Buehrle playing key roles.

Kumbaya, my Lord, Kumbaya....c'mon everyone...Kumbaya, my Lord, Kumbaya. Oh Lord, Kumbaya.

Looking at those wrc+ numbers, only in his 1st season as a regular (2005) was the wrc+ significantly lower than this year. Many seasons where it was significantly higher. My expectation for Reyes next year would be somewhat better than this year with the bat, and I think there are more pressing needs for the team than a SS. They need to find an answer at 2B, and figure out what is happening with CF/LF. Depending on Janssen, they may need 1 or 2 7th/8th/9th inning guys.

"....it beat the alternative of prodding along with Yunel Escobar at SS and a rotation of Romero-Morrow-Alvarez-Happ if management wasn't going to be allowed to spend on free agents to improve the team...."

This is what people sometimes forget about those 2 trades. Without the trades, the Jays would have been dependent on Romero and Morrow, and the team probably knew that those two starters weren't reliable enough (even if they didn't fully realize that Romero was on the verge of completely imploding and Morrow was headed for the DL list for most of the following two seasons). 

The real loss was Alvarez.  But at the time, many of us believed he was little more than a fastball-pitching guy with lots of velocity and not much off-speed stuff.  If the Jays weren't so desperate to upgrade their rotation, they could have held onto Alvarez.  But they were, and they couldn't.