As has been discussed here recently, the Blue Jays bullpen in 2014 has been a major disappointment. It wasn't always thus. Way back in 2008, the Blue Jays had by far the best bullpen in the AL (ERA of 2.94, second best was 3.50, league average was 4.10). This was mainly the work of four LH pitchers - Downs, Ryan, Carlson, Tallet - three of whom would never be anywhere near that effective again. Anyway, since then, not so much. The 2009 pen (4.08 ERA) was slightly better than the league average, and that was mainly because the Royals ran out the worst group of relief pitchers in living memory, a group bad enough to inflate the league average to 4.17. The Jays pen was below average in 2010 (4.09 to 3.89), 2011 (3.88 to 3.81), and 2012 (4.33 to 3.55) - they rose out of that muck in 2013 (3.37 to 3.68), only to fall back in this year. This year's pen has an ERA of 4.17, the AL bullpen average is 3.62 - and I think the Jays bullpen has been effectively worse than that. Consider - the regular reliever with the best ERA is Todd Redmond. And Redmond leads the team in relief innings pitched. But Redmond does most of his work in what are generally referred to as Low Leverage situations. The other guys, the ones used when the game is on the line, have for the most part been worse.

If you've been without shouting range of my voice these last few years, you're aware that one of my basic beliefs about the game is that relief pitchers grow on trees. There is no shortage of pitchers who can help you in that particular role. That being true, and I believe it is, there is really no excuse for having a sub-par bullpen. (Providing you understand that particular point, of course.)

Do the Blue Jays understand that point? I think they do. While trading even a prospect as marginal as Travis Snider for something as fungible as a relief pitcher would seem to indicate the opposite, I think they get the point. But maybe that there comes a time when this very understanding actually gets in the way of building a bullpen. When a guy has a bad week and you toss him to the curb or ship him to AAA and give someone else a look. Which I think happens around here sometimes. When you know you have all kinds of options, it's tempting not to make a commitment. I don't know. But there's a problem somewhere.

How you define a sub-par bullpen?

While there is no shortage of useful relievers, is it true that there are a lot of useful predictable relievers? Pitchers like Scott Downs do not appear to be common. That said, the Blue Jays are doing something wrong or they wouldn't be persistently below average.

How you define a sub-par bullpen?

One that gives up more runs?

I'm a simple man...

Is it just me or does Badenhop and Boxberger sound like one really nasty law firm?

How long do you think it takes for gibbons to realize that valencia's career .625ops vRHP means he can't hit RHP?

Did Francisco run over Gibbons' dog?

See, now wouldn't it make more sense to give Morrow his first relief appearance in a 7-2 game, and let Sanchez pitch in this one?

No pressure rook.

Baptism by fire for Norris.

Come on kid, make us smile.

As I posted in the other thread mistakenly, Morrow threw 98/99 out of the pen.  He'll be effective if he can throw strikes.

Welcome to the major leagues, Mr. Norris.

Apparently Gibbons just realized the new pitchers were there today? Giving a lefty their major league debut against Ortiz - 2nd time this year (Rasmussen?)? Probably a good strategy to give him a different look...Nasty pitch for the K!

Yeah i'm smiling like a fool.

How long do you think it takes for gibbons to realize that Valencia's career .625ops vRHP means he can't hit RHP?

Presumably when he stops hitting RHP? He's now hit .267 against them since coming here. He hasn't had a platoon split as a Jay, and he does play 3b somewhat better than Francisco.

Valencia did hit .280/.303/.410 against RH as a rookie. He had a horrible year against them (and everyone else) in 2011 - that one year accounts for roughly half his career PAs against RHP - and no one's really given him a chance against them since. I'm fine with letting this one play out.

Wow.

Credit, too, to Navarro. The first and last pitches were a bit borderline but he did a nice job framing them.

Valencia had a .267obp and .688ops vRHP as jay coming into tonight. Tonight he has a .667ops with two ugly Ks.

This is what has convinced gibber that he's better than his .625ops career mark?

I think Edwin might have achieved full function after his injury.  Not a moment too soon.

Yankees lose.

Jays hold on and we'll pass them, and only have two teams left to catch.

Dammit. Jinxed them.

It's not like Goins is slow.

Rasmus has to hit there.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Why is Francisco even on the roster if Gibbons just refuses to use him for Valencia, Pillar, Goins or Gose?

When's the last time mcgowan had a clean inning?

That strike 3 pitch to naps was awesome. Way to nut up, dusty.

Rasmus has to hit there.

He pinch-hit for Kawasaki earlier in the game.

It looks like Mayberry will get to swing this time.

Gibbons doesn't have much confidence in Redmond evidently.  There were times in the 8th inning when he could have been used.

Sounds like Melky's out for the season. Fractured finger.

Marcus freaking Stroman!

Melky done for the year. Unreal. Ah well, maybe that keeps his pricetag down for next year.

Guess colby and mayverry will get plenty of time down the stretch after all. Might not hurt us that much in the end.

Nice debut, mayberry.


Edit: STROMAN CAN DO ANYTHING

edit: MAYBERRY BABY MAYBERRY

So... scoreboard watching. If this Giants/Tigers game ends up being rained out, do they continue from where its at right now (6-0 Giants)?

Now that Rasmus has been supplanted by Gose and Pillar, I wonder if Gibbons would be prepared to shift him to LF.

... i.e., playing the rest of the season with Gose/Pillar in CF and Rasmus/Mayberry in LF.

After all of that, of course Francisco comes in as a defensive replacement.

Or gose/pompey in cf and rasmus/pillar in lf.

You're right, Uglyone, this could be an opportunity for Pompey.

I don't know if it's the positioning or Reyes' less than outstanding range, but  the pitchers aren't getting much help.

Ugh.

Casey is really not good right now. This sucks.

"Guess colby and mayverry will get plenty of time down the stretch after all. Might not hurt us that much in the end."

Jesus. That has to be the funniest comment all season. Cabrera gone for the the year in the crunch but we have colby. And Mayberry.

Woohoo.

Are you Colby's agent?

Nice throw, pillar.

Can't we bring cecil in for papi?

Jemile Weeks, go to school on Stroman.  That's how you do it.

Nice throw, pillar.

Smart play. Keeping the winning run at 2nd is huge.

That's why you don't burn Goins.

"Jesus. That has to be the funniest comment all season. Cabrera gone for the the year in the crunch but we have colby. And Mayberry. "

Vs. RHP

Cabrera .813ops, 125wrc+
Rasmus .765ops, 109wrc+

Vs. LHP

Cabrera .785ops, 116wrc+
Mayberry .921ops, 155wrc+

And they're probably an upgrade defensively, too.

So yeah, hilarious.

Our bullpen has just killed us this year.

So bad.

And those last four innings are why you don't burn Sanchez.

That's why you don't burn Goins.

No kidding. And on second with two out. After letting Maddon outsmart himself last night, Gibbons completely mangled this game.

Wow, what a disappointing game.

There's all kinds of ways we can second guess Gibbons, but I'll start with a couple:

Why bring Graveman into the game at all?  Yes, it worked with Norris, but let's not play with fire here.

Francisco over Johnson at 1b?

That's why you don't burn Goins.

Much as I like Dalton Pompey, I agree with that comment, TUIB.  Sending in Pompey to run for Goins in that situation does result in a marginal upgrade (with two outs, Pompey might score on a line single to left which Goins might have to hold on), but the cost was pretty obvious too.  With Lawrie out, I might play Goins against RHP and just leave him there. 

That was a hell of a game.

If Marcus Stroman wasn't already your favourite player, that should seal it. And memo to Ben Cherington: Mookie Betts clearly can't play the outfield. Please send him to us.

I'd like to bitch about manager decisions but man it's hard when your bullpen ace suddenly turns into an unpitchable pumpkin. It screws everything up.

Fairpoint uglyone.

What do you do about it?  Do you go bullpen by committee, Cecil, or Sanchez?  I'd be tempted to just go with Sanchez at this point. 

I agree to a certain extent, uglyone, but Janssen at least survives the inning with Goins at second.

Three groundball singles, an ooops bunt single, a botched double play...I don't know. The last two blown saves have been tough on Casey.

They could just stick with Janssen but avoid pitching him in back-to-back games. You'd hope that with an 11-man bullpen this would be possible. He's probably a bit less unpitchable when he's rested. (So I guess my vote is "committee.")

I may be in the minority on this, but I loved bringing Graveman in for the 8th with a bunch of righties (and Nava) due up. I did not love pulling him after one batter.

The problem with Janssen is he doesn't strike out anyone anymore. He's a slave to BABIP

I kind of agree Alex. A lot of hindsight second guessing why Gibbons brought in Graveman, when the mistake may have been taking him out for Loup.

Games like this happen over 162.

I'm not a fan of rotating players into a game as if this were a meaningless ballgame or a house league game. Morrow for two hitters, Norris for one, Graveman for one, Pompey to run for Goins. We also had to use a pitcher , and not just any pitcher, but one of our most prized pitching prospects to pitch run, can you imagine if Stroman twisted or jammed a finger sliding in to home.

".....And those last four innings are why you don't burn Sanchez...."

I'm not keen to keep flogging this dead horse of an issue, but are you really suggesting that Gibbons should have withheld Sanchez from a 7-4 game in Tampa because of the unlikely possibility that, two days later, two of his top relievers would allow 8 hits and 5 runs in 1.1 innings against a last-place team?  Is that really a scenario that Gibbons should have anticipated?  And if this scenario was predictable, isn't it equally likely that the bullpen could have allowed 5 runs by Tampa if the manager had used Janssen and others ahead of Sanchez in that game?

The point is that the bullpen remains weak, even with 10 pitchers in it, and the Jays won't get very far if Sanchez is their only good reliever.

But I certainly agree that Gibbons made some questionable decisions.  Pinch-running for Goins was an extremely dubious decision.  The decision to use Graveman was also dubious, I thought.  And why was Redmond not used?

...of the unlikely possibility that...

It's hardly unlikely that a baseball game is going to be close. (Close is the point, not 8 hits blah blah blah.) So, yes, I'm guessing Gibbons knows close ballgames exist and should have anticipated one.

isn't it equally likely that the bullpen could have allowed 5 runs by Tampa...

Of course. And when it starts to look dicey you go to the higher leverage guys. It's really not complicated. Low-leverage guys in low-leverage situations, high-leverage guys in high-leverage situations. Best way to run a bullpen.

The point is that the bullpen remains weak...

That kind of is the point, isn't it? That's why you don't use your best guy with an 8-2 lead and bring him back out the next night with a 3-run lead knowing he's out for the next two games.

Now, let's see here.... What did a certain ChinaFan have to say... oh, here it is:

So far, based on results, you can only say that it's a winning strategy. If the Jays go on to lose games today or tomorrow because of a bullpen collapse with Sanchez unavailable, then perhaps it's reasonable to criticize the strategy.

Ha!

In case this was missed, Chad Jenkins was hit on the hand by a ball in BP. He has gone on the 15 day DL with a broken hand.

So, Melky finishes the year 301/351/458, 124 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR.

Does that lead to a QO? Is he a $15M player? I'm not sure he'll command an AAV that high this off-season. On the other hand, he might well want to give free agency a shot and would decline a QO in order to do so. Decisions, decisions.

This is a tweet from John Lott last night:

Cabrera, asked about next year (and answering in English): "I stay in Toronto." You want to stay? "Yeah."

Nice!

A major league manager should be able to anticipate that his team may play multiple close games over several days.

The only decision last night that didn't sit well with me at the time and still bugs me a bit now is the Pompey for Goins move. Is seems like your increasing the probability of scoring a run by such a minute amount, I'd much prefer to preserve my defense in a late/extra inning game.

All the rest of it is just baseball. Hopefully the boys don't get too dejected and bounce back today. Two of three in Boston would be great.

So are ground-rule doubles ruled singles in walk-offs? Thought they'd get the same treatment as home-runs.

According to Wilner last night, it's because Cespedes never touched 2nd base.

Gameday had Cespedes' game winning hit as a ground ball single to centerfield.  Well, it did eventually hit the ground unlike Encarnacion's homer that landed on a roof across the street. 

The play that most bugged me was the Napoli ground ball off Loup in the 8th inning with Cespedes on first base.  Off the bat, I thought that it was a sure double play.  Reyes was shifted quite far over into the hole and couldn't quite make a play on it.  A better defensive shortstop would have got at least one out on the play, but the positioning wasn't helpful. 

I was over at Fangraphs this week and was shocked that Reyes was only -6 UZR/150. By the eye, he looks horrible. He was to blame for two of the first three Red Sox runs to some extent as well.

Helluva single. Let the record show that Janssen was the victim of five ground ball singles then.

Blue Jays relievers have made 395 appearances so far this season, and pitched 430.1 innings. Last night was the 31st time one of those relievers allowed 3 runs or more. They've got a chance to match the frightening work of the arsonists who toiled during the Season From Hell, who lit the game on fire in such a fashion 38 times. And this year's bunch doesn't even include Kerry Ligtenberg (7 times in 2004.)

The culprits:

Sergio Santos (4)
Esmil Rogers (4)
Casey Janssen (3)
Todd Redmond (3)
Brett Cecil (2)
Dustin McGowan (2)
Aaron Loup (2)
Chad Jenkins (2)
Marcus Stroman (2)
Brad Mills (2)
Rob Rasmussen (1)
Steve Delabar (1)
Bobby Korecky (1)
Neil Wagner (1)
Jeremy Jeffress (1)

This is mainly an excuse for me to remember the great, great, great Tom Henke, who made 446 appearances as a Blue Jay and pitched 563 innings. Henke allowed 3 runs in a game just 13 times in his 8 seasons here. He once went almost two years without allowing such a thing.

Tom Henke. The one and only. It's still a freaking scandal that his #50 isn't up there on the Level of Whatever They Call It. The Curse of the Terminator endures, and it shall endure until this is put right. So I said back in 2005, and so I say today.

Exactly! But the season is over, so I hope they put Goins in for the remainder of the season so they can decide on what they may want to do for next year. There is no reason to start MK.

When you said start Goins for the rest of the year, I thought you meant at shortstop.

Damn right Magpie.  And we just waved goodbye after 1992, allowing him to sign a 2 year, 4 million dollar deal with the Rangers.  3 more seasons, 91 more saves and done at 37, his final year a dominant one.  21st all time in saves with 311, Canadian baseball hall of famer.  If Paul Beeston and Joe Carter (3 time member of the 100 rbi, negative WAR club) are up there, he certainly belongs on the level of excellence!

Mariano Rivera's best three seasons, by fFAR: 4.3, 3.3, 3.2 (total: 10.8)

Tom Henke's best three seasons: 3.6, 3.5, 3.3 (total: 10.4)

fWAR

fWAR is not a good basis for comparing Tom Henke and Mariano Rivera.  For one thing, it uses FIP measures predominantly.  For his career, Rivera had a FIP of 2.76 and an ERA of 2.21; he was spectacularly good at avoiding hard contact thanks to the cutter.  For another, in several of Rivera's best seasons, the Yankees were assured of winning the division early and he was saved for the playoffs.  In the playoffs Rivera pitched to an ERA of 0.70 in 141 innings. 

Henke was a great reliever.  Rivera was easily the best ever at it. 

Losing to either of the Evil Empires fills me with anguish, fills me through my every fiber. Ugh.

BUT - I've never been so excited about our young(ish)- ready(ish)  (perhaps) for Prime Time starting pitching. Have we ever had so many, so good, so close?

Stroman, Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez, Nolin, Graveman and next springs return from injury break-out - Osuna. I get the shivers - and not just when I'm hung over.

And then - in his beautiful near-monosyllabic English - Cabrera - our only real 24/7 professional hitter - says these magic words, "I want to be in Toronto."

Hope - all that keeps me from despair over the long winter months (OK and the occasional single malt)  - begins to bud - dare I say spring from my manly (OK - so I exaggerate a bit) chest.

Alex - please, pretty please, pretty please with butter on it - sign Cabrera.

Alex, I need inner peace, as Artic Vortex's chill my bones and Canadian NHL teams work strenuously to avoid post season play, just sign the SOB for friggin sake!

Alex, thank you for you kind attention to this matter.

I think it reinfirces my opinion that we shouldn't be the highest bidders for Melky this offseason when i look up and down the roster and see Melky as one of the least painful losses from our starting lineup.

The drop from .900+ops fulltime starters like Bautista and Ee to their replacements is huge, and hurts us bigtime.

The drop from league average hitters with good defensive value like reyes, lawrie and navarro to their replacements is also huge and kills us.

Any of the platoon starters at cf, 3b, dh obviously don't hurt quite as much.

Of the fulltime starters, though, melky's good but not great bat combined with poor D doesn't seem to hurt as much - more playing time for the likes of rasmus/mayberry/pompey can likely fill most of the gap, and maybe all of it with the defensive upgrade, at least imo.

That being said, there may be something to the fact thatbhis high-avg skillset is a bit rarer on this team and might be missed a bit more, but i'm not sure that's actually true.


This injury shouldn't destroy us, i don't think, and i'm not sure i'm eager to give melky full FA market value on a contract this offseason.


On another note, i'm dissappointed with gibbons since the rosters expanded - he was great with platoons when it was tough to do with the smaller roster, and you figure with the bigger roster he could go hog wild with the platoons....but instead he's gone the other way. Now suddenly valencia is fulltime, pillar starts vRHP and gose vLHP pretty much willynilly....and the haphazard usage seems to be stretching to the bullpen as well now.

Imo gibby should take a step back and simplify his gameplan, especially with melky out. Trust in the established splits and just go with them:

CF Gose/Pompey
RF Bautista
LF Rasmus/Pillar
3B Francisco/Valencia
SS Reyes
2B Kawasaki/Goins/Tolleson
1B Encarnacion
DH Lind/Mayberry
C Navarro

I wonder what he does at the top if the order. My first thought woukd be to move everyone up a spot with Joey in the 2 hole.

fWAR is not a good basis for comparing Tom Henke and Mariano Rivera. For one thing, it uses FIP measures predominantly. For his career, Rivera had a FIP of 2.76 and an ERA of 2.21; he was spectacularly good at avoiding hard contact thanks to the cutter. For another, in several of Rivera's best seasons, the Yankees were assured of winning the division early and he was saved for the playoffs. In the playoffs Rivera pitched to an ERA of 0.70 in 141 innings.

No. In Rivera's 4.3 fWAR season, he pitched 107.2 innings - significantly more than in any of Henke's seasons. His FIP that year was 1.88 and his ERA was 2.09. In one of the other two seasons I referenced, his FIP and ERA were almost identical.

Rivera pitched 259 IP in his three top WAR seasons. Henke pitched 274.1 IP. For the purposes of adding up WAR, it's not a significant difference.

"....That's why you don't use your best guy with an 8-2 lead and bring him back out the next night with a 3-run lead knowing he's out for the next two games...."

This is just factually wrong and misleading.  The 8-2 game is irrelevant, because it wouldn't have prevented Sanchez from pitching last night on 2 days rest.  The relevant game is the 7-4 game the following day.  And nobody has explained why Gibbons should have withheld Sanchez from the 7-4 situation in Tampa in order to save him for the 6-3 situation in Boston.   Or to save him for the 8-6 situation in the 10th inning.  If the Jays bullpen is capable of blowing a 3-run lead and subsequently a 2-run lead in two different innings last night, it would have been quite capable of blowing a similar lead in the 7-4 game as well.  There's very little difference in leverage in those situations.  The notion that you can confidently predict outcomes -- for example to claim that Loup or Janssen could have hypothetically saved the 7-4 game, even though they were incapable of holding a 6-3 lead or a 8-6 lead in an actual real-world game in the same week -- is unsupportable.

"....A major league manager should be able to anticipate that his team may play multiple close games over several days...."

Not sure of your point here.  Bullpens consist of many pitchers, not just one pitcher.  You're supposed to be able to rely on your entire bullpen, not just one guy.  If there are "multiple close games over several days," you can't use the same pitcher to preserve every close lead -- you'd destroy his arm.  The problem is not the use of Sanchez -- the problem is the unreliability of most of the bullpen.  At the beginning of the season, most of us were pretty happy with a bullpen that was built around five key pitchers: Janssen, Santos, Delabar, Loup and Cecil (plus a couple of long relievers).  Of those five key relievers, only Cecil has been reliable.  It's hardly the manager's fault if 80 per cent of his bullpen mainstays have fallen apart.

Last night's result hurt and while there were certainly some questionable managerial decisions the result is on the players plain and simple.

It is easy to say Janssen was the victim of BABIP but when you are throwing 90 mph fastballs in the heart of the plate that can happen. Further, while I wouldn't have removed Goins that was not a double play ball, much too softly hit bringing Tolleson into the path of Middlebrooks.

Loup was likewise awful and unfortunately needed to be bailed out by his SS which didn't happen. In fact, if you want to illustrate the difference between the Jays and the Os, Reyes vs Hardy in the field does so perfectly.

Lastly, the I told you so's regarding Sanchez are a bit overblown. One of the complaints the other day was he can't be the only trusted reliever but last night that argument flips? I'm sorry to say but 6-3 in the 8th is not high leverage and if you can't trust your best relievers with 2 and 3 runs leads who can you trust?

Except it was Papi running to first, no? My thought at the time was easy DP.

It wasn't Papi that was the issue, it was Middlebrooks. Given how softly the ball was hit and where it was fielded by a charging Tolleson it was a risky play to try for 2 but given the situation I understood why he tried. One out at first was not going to save them. Maybe Goins makes that play but it would not have been a given like some are making it to be.

Well, if you're going to look at comparing Henke and Rivera seriously, you can't use the top 3 seasons of fWAR.  It's just not an adequate tool to assess the contributions of high leverage relievers.

Here are some markers:
Rivera top 3 WPA seasons: 5.26, 5.22, 4.65
Henke top 3 WPA seasons: 3.72, 3.49, 3.19

Rivera top 3 ERA+: 316, 308, 267 (240 in his 107 inning season)
Henke top 3 ERA+: 229, 211, 191

Rivera top 3 BBRefWAR: 5.0, 4.3, 4.2 (4.0, 3.9...)
Henke top 3 BBRefWAR: 3.4, 3.3, 3.0 (2.3, 2.2..)

In Henke's best seasons, his FIP+ and IP combination were somewhat comparable to Rivera's, but overall, there is no comparison.  Rivera was in a whole other league.

Rivera was in a whole other league.

Yup, Rivera was the Babe Ruth of relief pitchers. I always compared Henke to Bruce Sutter (Hall of Famer, Cy Young winner) myself.

If you want a good thought - a few months ago lots here and elsewhere were worried about Sanchez's future as a prospect. Now everyone is worried about making sure he's used in a way that leaves him available for the biggest moments of the season.

My first thought would be to move everyone up a spot with Joey in the 2 hole.

That's what's happening. But I'd rather not - Bautista's baseball DNA makes him attempt to fill the batting order role that you put him in. That's just who he is. I don't even think he does it consciously, but that's what happens. Bat him leadoff, and all he does is take walks. Bat him second, he tries to put the ball in play, and move baserunners. Bat him third, he wants to be a slugging RBI guy, and in the process becomes your best hitter.

This is just factually wrong...

Oh really? Because you don't mention a single fact I have wrong. Well, okay, we'll chalk that one up to bluster and move on.

The 8-2 game is irrelevant, because it wouldn't have prevented Sanchez from pitching last night on 2 days rest....

Good grief. If he hadn't pitched the 8-2 game, he would've been available last night, which kind of has the effect of making that game relevant. Logic, my friend, logic. It's the combined effect of the two games. Keep him from either and he's available last night. You'll note my criticism of Gibbons' handling of Sanchez began with the first game. Meanwhile, I'll note that you said this:

So far, based on results, you can only say that it's a winning strategy. If the Jays go on to lose games today or tomorrow because of a bullpen collapse with Sanchez unavailable, then perhaps it's reasonable to criticize the strategy.

Oh my goodness! Still getting a laugh out of that one, excuse me. Now don't get me wrong, the comment was nonsense even at the time. But it was your nonsense! I would've thought you'd try to explain it. Back to the drawing board, ChinaFan.

What about Lind out of the 2 spot? Gets on base a lot vs. RHPs.

On a related question, what's happened to Lind's HR power?

This is mainly an excuse for me to remember the great, great, great Tom Henke, who made 446 appearances as a Blue Jay and pitched 563 innings. Henke allowed 3 runs in a game just 13 times in his 8 seasons here. He once went almost two years without allowing such a thing.

He was truly great, great, great, and deserves to be up on the Wall of Excellence. But I remember two things about Henke from back in the day:

• In 1989, he actually lost his job as a closer when Jimy Williams gave up on him. (Baseball Reference's game log points out that he blew his third save in five attempts on May 2, at which time his ERA was 11.37.
• In 1992, he was widely perceived as being not as good as Ward. The perception was that Ward had been willing to be the #2 guy for a long time, and deserved a chance to be #1. (I seem to recall reading that Todd Stottlemyre offered to subsidize Henke's salary if the Jays were to keep him, but I don't know that for sure.)

One of my most favourite Jays memories of all time is his first game as a Jay in 1985. He got two strikes on somebody and then dropped down sidearm to strike the batter out looking, which surprised me, the batter, and the announcing team in roughly equal measure. His ERA in Syracuse that year, before his callup, was 0.88 - he had allowed 13 hits in 51.1 innings.

Did Henke have a falling out with the Jays organization some time back? He used to fly up to Toronto for alumni events all the time, but I don't remember hearing anything from him lately - perhaps I've just missed the times he's been here.

what's happened to Lind's HR power?

Damn. I thought I was the only one who'd noticed that Lind has hit one - that's right, one - home run since late May.

And yet... he's having a fine year. Go figure.

I have a linguistic question.  When the Giants defeat the Tigers, the headline would read something like "Giants slay Tigers".  What happens when the Blue Jays defeat the Red Sox- "Blue Jays wear out Sox"? or  "Blue Jays put Sox away"?

Gibbons' OF choices are interesting.  Pillar in LF and Gose in CF against the RHP.  It's good that he is giving Pillar a shot.  We will see what he does with it. 

In 1989, [Henke] actually lost his job as a closer when Jimy Williams gave up on him.

Yup. Gaston soon took over, of course, and decided that Henke just needed to restore his confidence. So he used him exclusively in non-save situations for a full month. Henke made 14 appearances in that first month for Gaston. The Jays were trailing in 7 of those games, tied in 2 more. He came in with the team ahead by 5 runs, 7 runs, 10 runs. He did just fine, and finally got his 3rd save of the season, his 1st under Gaston on June 23. And from that point on, he was lights out for the rest of the season (2-0, 18 SV, 0.93 ERA).

I've never been so excited about our young(ish)- ready(ish) (perhaps) for Prime Time starting pitching. Have we ever had so many, so good, so close?

Oh, probably!

But I agree, it is very exciting. It is also deeply, powerfully, terrifying. Young pitchers! Young pitchers will break your heart. That's what they do. That's a fundamental Law of the Universe, like gravity.

Another concern. The process of transforming promising young arms into major league starters is fraught with peril. It's one of the most important things a manager and an organization can do. And John Gibbons... I don't know what happened but I can say that Gibbons hasn't had a lot of luck in this area. During his first tour here, he made first time rotation starters of five pitchers: One of them was Dave Bush. The others were Gustavo Chacin, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch and there's something frightening about what that quartet has in common.

It's good that he is giving Pillar a shot.

In a way, yeah. But if I had to guess who'd perform better vs. righties from now till the end of the year, Pillar or Rasmus, I'd take Rasmus.

Probably, TUIB.  I actually think Pompey would do better than either of them, but I realize that is not in the cards.

He got two strikes on somebody and then dropped down sidearm to strike the batter out looking, which surprised me, the batter, and the announcing team in roughly equal measure.

I remember a team in an intramural league I was in back in my University days calling themselves "Henke Goes Sidearm".

Love watching Goins on defence. Love it.

Navarro took two strikes and made them look like balls there. Lead-off walk.

Five pitches in the zone called balls that inning. I'll give Navarro a pass on the one in the upper corner (it's often called a ball, and Navarro received it well enough) but the other ones he did not look good on.

This has been bothering me for a while. Navarro hasn't played this much in a season since he was 24 years old, and there are still three weeks to go. I think he ran out of gas about a month ago. The weird thing is, this team spent a good chunk of the season carrying three catchers, but still managed to run the number one guy into the ground. Josh Thole, who's been a perfectly serviceable backup this year, has started exactly 6 games aside from his work with Dickey.

He has an OPS of 870 post all star break.

The bat's been fine. The defense has been getting worse by the day.

If the Blue Jays cut down a tree in the forest and there was no one there to hear it, would it make a sound?

I just figured everyone was watching football, er, enjoying the September weather...

Really should have won 2/3 this series. Seattle lost so the Jays sit 5 back of WC2, but a win Friday would have made it 4 back.  That four gamer against the Mariners might be the Hail Mariest of the Hail Marys.

It was a nice week - a 4-2 road trip to Tampa and Boston is always a nice week - and all they achieved was to go from 5.5 behind Detroit to 5 behind Seattle. There are three weeks left, the math does itself at this point, and Reality is making its presence felt.

Some light reading on a couple of Jays prospects in preparation for the team's 21 game winning streak to close the season.

I suppose, in the one-quarter full dept., the fact that the Blue Jays do have four games left against the Mariners at home is a plus.   I did watch and listen to bits and pieces of this game, but didn't get a complete picture.  All I can say is that no walks and 8 strikeouts from the pitchers always gets two thumbs up from me. 

Agreed... but can't let go of hope yet. There is four games with Seattle to come (of course taking four straight against that rotation would be quite the feat)

Still, Gore Vidal's famous words do come to mind right about now:

It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.

Words to live by, if you're a contrary misanthrope.

Thanks, Hodgie, for the 21 game winning streak light reading.  I particularly liked the "light-tower' power part.  I heard that about Fred McGriff when the Jays acquired him in the Dale Murray trade, and (of course) about Carlos Delgado when he was 19-20. 

Definite lack of excitement left. I said a week ago (elsewhere, IRL) that I'd get excited again for the playoff chances once the Jays won 10 in a row. I was exaggerating, sweeping the Red Sox would've done it ;). They had a slim chance, and now it's gone. Not losing ground isn't good enough right now.

I don't see much hope that Cleveland, and Detroit and/or KC all collapse - Cleveland plays 3 against KC and Detroit still, Detroit has KC twice, Cleveland once. A lot of guaranteed wins for someone ahead of the Jays right now. And that leaves out NY and Seattle, who the Jays get to play at least. Still need another huge winning streak. The Rockies did it that one year, that's basically what the Jays would need at this point (21 of 22 to finish). So I'm saying there's a chance, I guess...

Fun stuff to read. Lets take a look at the two big sluggers and Telez.
McGriff at 19: two A ball teams, 260/369/484. The next year was split between AA/AAA, then 2 more years in AAA (plus 5 PA in Toronto) before having a 130 OPS+ in a platoon role followed by 7 years of 140+ OPS+
Delgado at 19: mainly A ball (3 PA in AAA) 284/394/455 with 18 HR.  A+ ball the next year, then AA, then a short ML period (with lots of 'wow') and AAA, then more AAA and a short audition, then finally let loose at 24 with a 112 OPS+, then 127, then wasn't below 129 until 35 years old.
Tellez at 19: rookie & A ball, 305/375/438. 

So Tellez had a visibly better BA, inbetween the two for OBP but behind both in Slg.  In A ball he hit 357/449/500 in 49 PA so he clearly liked it.  To make him look better, in his first 17 games he hit 103/191/121.  After that in 2 levels he hit 371/437/543 in 199 PA (48 games).  Wow.  Something around July 7th changed.  He had gone 0-25 with 2 walks, then suddenly had a 13 game hitting streak, lost it on an 0-1, then another 7 game hitting streak.  Something happened, no idea what, but boy did things change after that.  Now he is looking like the prospect we were told he could be.

Definite lack of excitement left.

Yep. Even the frustration brought on by August seems now to have passed. This is like the Stages of Grief - we're done with Denial and Anger, we're almost finished with Bargaining, and we're ready for Acceptance. Something like that, anyway.

Well. Time to start preparing the old Report Card.

Why give up now? Only a few weeks left. Might as well stick with it.

One good run and they can still make it.

It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.

Good quote and good film.

Yep. Even the frustration brought on by August seems now to have passed. This is like the Stages of Grief - we're done with Denial and Anger, we're almost finished with Bargaining, and we're ready for Acceptance. Something like that, anyway.

Wait.  Isn't there a long period of Depression between Bargaining and Acceptance?  Nevermind.  I am happy to pass over that one quickly.  Anger, Bargaining and Acceptance are so much more fun, and the post-Acceptance dinner banquet is even better.  You could do worse than sushi on October 1.

My question of the day.  What would be the best usage of Daniel Norris from here on out in 2014?  Personally, I'd like to see Norris used in 1-2 inning low to medium leverage work. 

The Jays have done what I didn't think possible -- turn in a season more frustrating than 2013. At least there the frustration was done by the end of July and acceptance had set in.

Subjectively frustrating seasons in the last 15:

2000
2006
2008
2013

... each for their own reasons, other seasons, despite losing, or losing badly/ugly, just weren't as frustrating. Maybe 2005, but with that season, once Doc went down, well that was kind of it. I'm guessing people will have other favorite frustrating seasons depending on their hopes/expectations but those are the ones that come to mind.

Could this season be more frustrating? Yes it could, they could do a late season run now and fall a game or two short. Please don't Blue Jays, please don't.

"frustrating" is a choice word, and you're probably right, but nothing was quite as....exasperating? Dissappointing? Painful? ?....as last year's inexplicable implosion pretty much right out of the gate. Last year was just gut punch after gut punch, a series of disasters from start to finish.

It was like that great canadian hurdling girl a couple years back took out the first hurdle in a race where she was a favorite.

This year might be more frustrating, but it's been a million times better than last year from this fan's perspective.

Tom Henke. The one and only. It's still a freaking scandal that his #50 isn't up there on the Level of Whatever They Call It. The Curse of the Terminator endures, and it shall endure until this is put right. So I said back in 2005, and so I say today.

So say we all!

Agreed Mike, I would like to see Norris used in much the same manner as Sanchez but in (perhaps) lower leverage situations, even if he didn't seem fazed in the least bit by making his debut against Papi. Of course, I thought the same with Sanchez and all he has done is dominate. Targeting 2 inning stints with consistent rest/routine in between appearances would be ideal for the rest of the season in my estimation.

For something loosely Jays related you need to watch Vlad Guerrero's 15 year old son take BP with Jays scouts in attendance here.