The Blue Jays were tied for First Place/in First Place from April eighth through April 19th, without Casey Janssen and J.A. Happ, with an ineffective Brandon Morrow, with an ineffective Dustin McGowan and with an out of options and ineffective Jeremy Jeffress. Most people feel we were robbed of our rightful place as Division Leader.

The Jays need a big multi-game win streak very quickly. Or, they need to win every series and sweep one of the next if they fail to win one prior. They have a chance to get into the postseason, they just need to want that more than anything else.

When Happ doesn't have his control at all, he's in trouble.  I guess he's not  alone in that.

I'd like to see them move Jannsen by the deadline. He's not going to merit a qualifying offer and I can't see signing him for what he likely thinks he's worth. They did a great deal for the club with him last time, now it's time to get some return that they won't get otherwise.

Phil Bickford is eying next years draft. He's transferring out of Cal State Fullerton and heading to junior college or independent league. He will be a top 3 pick next year

I'd like to see them move Jannsen by the deadline.

The deadline was three weeks ago, but I don't imagine Janssen will have much trouble clearing waivers. But really - who out there is going to offer much more than a bag of slightly used BP baseballs for Janssen? Who out there has a pressing need for a guy with a 6.59 ERA since the All-Star Break who's going to be a free agent as soon as the season ends?

Now if Lou Gorman was still a major league GM, you'd have something....

The deadline was three weeks ago

Bored?

I agree though that he's unlikely to bring a significant return.

Most people feel we were robbed of our rightful place as Division Leader.

Who are these people and what the hell is wrong with them? The only team with a rightful place as division leader is the one that wins the most games. And Toronto hasn't been robbed of anything. They looked like a .500 team, and that's what they turned out to be.

I don't think Navarro is doing any favours for Happ tonight, his framing is poor especially on the down and in fastball. Remember when Happ pitched well when Kratz was catching him?

They looked like a .500 team, and that's what they turned out to be.

I worry it might be a little bit quick for such a conclusion. Even the optimist in me believes this squad is just as likely to lose 23 of the next 33 as they are to win that many.

The big question is how do you turn this team into one that can contend for a championship? Better defense? Genuine ace starter? Deal with the devil? The Blue Jays as constructed now look to me like a team that can be good but not necessarily great, and it is usually much harder to go from good to great than from bad to good (I might've actually stolen that one from you, Mags).

replace beeston with gillick?

Great new piece by Andrew Stoeten, based off a tweet from Richard Griffin saying, "When Bautista was asked whether #bluejays ownership dedicated to winning: “I don't have enough information to answer that question.""

As one of the DJF commenters mentioned, it seems Papa Rasmus agrees with Stoeten.

So it seems we're getting more insight into some of the unhappiness on the team. I'm much happier with them criticizing Rogers than Anthopoulos, since I think that's a surer way to get improvements. For Rogers, the potential for some negative publicity maybe influences the way they look at spending -- suddenly there's some risk involved in not spending more.

Even the optimist in me believes this squad is just as likely to lose 23 of the next 33 as they are to win that many.

I think they're much more likely to lose 23 than win 23, but I think that would be more of an expression of Having Lost All Hope than a reflection of how good they are.

I've always resisted, as fiercely as I could, the notion of trading Jose Bautista for whatever you can get. You build a championship team by acquiring players like Bautista. Trading him away is an admission of failure. Which I hate. But I think we've reached a point with this team where such an admission is entirely appropriate. The Win-Now strategy has pretty clearly failed. I'm not sure Anthopoulos' heart was really in it anyway, and I've seen nothing whatsoever to believe that his particular skill set is what's needed to make it work.

The Red Sox know better than to pinch-run for David Ortiz (at least they did when Terry Francona was managing) and Gibbons should know better than to pull Encarnacion from a tie game.

I think at the season's end, each player's record from July 31st on should be reviewed. If the records/film included show any sign of "quit", get rid of them, no matter who they are. Those that kept "playing/trying hard", you keep.

How is it they get two-hit, with a walk through 8.0, yet can score in the 9th? A total of just five hits and three walks usually loses games. But 24 hits (6 avg.), 5 walks (1.25 avg.) and just 9 runs (2.25 avg.) wins very little over 4 games with only one badly pitched game. It doesn't look like the hitters are trying, or they are not that good to start with.


I get so angry with these guys, they quit and there's no consequences. I do that and I'm fired within seconds.

I'm with Magpie. I don't see the obvious road there (playoffs) from here given my belief in payroll limitations.

I know of people who work for Rogers. They are continuing to "trim" middle and upper management under the new CEO. With the huge dollars given over to the Leafs, with managers losing their jobs, I don't see the Jays getting extra money.

With that as my belief, I don't see the Jays able to re-sign their free agents and I don't also see the team getting better by letting the free agents go.

I have not fully formed my thoughts on this but I don't see the path to 90 wins next year, other than "no-one gets injured".

Most of you probably know that it was Willie Mays who was in the on-deck circle when Bobby Thomson hit his shot-heard-round-the-world. But here's a question for you: Who was in the on-deck circle when Joe Carter hit his home run in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series?

Back in the day, Cito used to regularly pinch-run for John Olerud, which used to drive me nuts. Well not long ago I was watching a YouTube clip of Carter's 9th inning at-bat in Game 6, and as the count got deep and the camera panned to the on-deck circle, who was there taking his cuts but Alfredo Griffin. Sure enough, Cito had pinch-run Griffin for Olerud, probably in the 7th inning and to no effect (neither Griffin nor the Jays scored), which meant that in the 9th inning, had Carter got out, it would've been Alfredo Griffin batting to try to avoid a game 7. Well, it could've been a pinch-hitter (though who? Randy Knorr?) but whoever it was, it wouldn't have been the best hitter on the team, which is what Olerud was.

Getting back to tonight's game, the decision to pinch-run Reimold for Encarnacion had the added effect of forcing Kawasaki to face a lefty (instead of Reimold) in a key at-bat in the 10th.

I was there! Griffin had run for Olerud in the 8th inning, with the Jays trailing by a single run, but was stranded on third. And while Griffin was in the on-deck circle, he was never, never going to hit. Darnell Coles was going to pinch-hit.

Willie Mays later confessed to being absolutely terrified of the situation in the 1951 playoff. He remembered hoping fervently that Thompson would do something - anything - so that Mays wouldn't have to come to bat. He was deeply ashamed of how the moment made him feel, and vowed to be better prepared for similar situations down the road. (He was, after all, just a 20 year old rookie who'd been called up at the end of May.)

Cito used to regularly pinch-run for John Olerud

Not that regularly. Gaston never much liked making in-game substitutions all that much to start with. He generally used fewer pinch-runners, pinch-hitters, and defensive subs than most managers in the league. Anyway, in 1993 Olerud started 157 games and finished 152 of them. He was removed for a pinch-runner three times (Griffin twice, Canate once) and twice he was replaced at 1b by Domingo Martinez with the game out of hand.

"...Many of us thought the 2014 Blue Jays looked like a .500 team...."

Predicting failure is the easiest and most unimaginative thing that any baseball fan can do.  Most teams fail. Even teams with huge advantages, and huge payrolls, often fail.  Fans who predict failure should have the dignity to remain relatively restrained about it.  Rushing to gloat about the brilliance of one's prediction, in August, is unseemly.  What does it say?  "I told you so."  Great, you made the easiest prediction in baseball, but how does it add anything to the debate?

"....Anthopoulos at one time may have been stockpiling assets and building for the future, but he changed course. Trading for Reyes, Buehrle, and Dickey is a strategy with the idea of winning something right now, and 2) long-term damage was done anyway...."

So with this statement, we're now actually seeing some attempt at analysis, rather than mere crowing about the success of one's prediction, but it's very dubious analysis and (in my view) it is incorrect.  To imply that Anthopoulos has sacrificed the future, to imply that he stopped building for the future and abandoned any attempt at stockpiling for the future (and to italicize this claim as if this is so insightful that we should be taking notes), is simply wrong.

Just look at the long-term assets who have emerged this season at premium positions: Stroman, Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Castro (now pitching successfully in Dunedin), Graveman, Osuna, Nolin, etc.  (I'm not even including the top prospects at lower levels since their future is less clear.)  And make sure to include Hutchison and Lawrie, who are still just 24.  And don't ignore the elite middle-of-the-lineup players who are still just 31 and 33 years old on incredibly team-friendly contracts.  Anthopoulos never sacrificed the future -- he built a pipeline that continues to produce great young players.  His strategy was "win now" and "win later."  To pretend that his strategy was only the former, not the latter, is to willfully ignore the facts.  It didn't succeed in a playoff position in 2014, but please don't distort the strategy and imply that he destroyed the farm system.  The so-called "long-term damage" was relatively minor, and it was quickly repaired by the emergence of other prospects who are equally good (if not better).

To trade a few prospects to acquire 3 good veterans -- including one of the best lead-off hitters in the game, plus two very reliable veteran pitchers -- was a gamble, but it was a gamble that needed to be made, because the Jays needed a strategy of "win now" and "win later" rather than purely "win later."  It didn't work in 2013 or 2014, but the odds were always against it -- they always are in baseball. 

Those two trades, with the Marlins and Mets, produced a major upgrade at shortstop and in the rotation. The cost, ultimately, was one very good young player (Alvarez) and a few prospects who weren't going to help the Jays in 2013 or 2014.  It was a gamble worth making.

The other argument might be that those two trades have created a payroll problem that handcuffs the future.  I disagree.  There's no evidence that Rogers was going to increase the payroll if Anthopoulos had not made a dramatic move to trade for elite veterans.  There's no evidence that elite free-agents would jump onto the Jays roster without a seven-year deal or a $150-million payout -- even if the Jays could pick the free agents who wouldn't flame out or get injured, as about half of them have.  Anthopoulos did what he had to do to acquire players who would give the Jays a shot at the playoffs in 2013 and 2014.  It didn't work in 2013, partly because of injuries (not an excuse, but can't be completely dismissed either).  It actually did work in 2014 because the Jays did have a shot at the playoffs, and they could have made the playoffs if the bullpen hadn't unexpectedly collapsed at some key moments of the season.  (I'm sorry, but I didn't see any brilliant fans predicting a drastic decline by half of the bullpen in 2014 when that bullpen had been among the best in baseball just a year earlier.)  More importantly, the strategy produced a lot of excitement and hope among fans who were previously moribund and cynical, and it produced bigger crowds and bigger TV revenue, which helps for the future too.  So the facts show that AA's strategy did not sacrifice the long-term future in any way.  (Italicize that.)

Predicting failure is the easiest and most unimaginative thing that any baseball fan can do.

Why should imagination even enter the equation? Forecasting should be a sober, dispassionate exercise. Wishcasting, on the other hand, can be as imaginative as you'd like. Tamra, when she was around, showed all kinds of imagination with her wishcasting. Great entertainment, I suppose, for those that like that kind of thing.

With those big trades the question becomes 'who would we want now' of those players?  I've pulled up the stats a few times, but here are key ones...
d'Arnaud: 228/292/396 95 OPS+ - the raw numbers are JPA, but the park is a pitchers one so the OPS+ is decent.  After a horrid first 2 months his OPS has been for June/July/Aug 692/795/747 - he keeps that production up and the Jays will regret losing him
Syndergaard: 4.85 ERA in AAA (Vegas) 0.8 HR/9 3.0 BB/9 9.8 K/9 - ERA is hurt by Vegas but the rest suggest he is still a top quality prospect - going from July 22nd to now (yeah, selective end points) you get a 2.95 ERA over 7 starts 39 2/3 IP.  Still a very top prospect.

Right now neither would be staring here or helping more than what we have.  But boy did it cost a lot to get Dickey eh?

Alvarez is the big one from the Miami trade in retrospect - 2.57 ERA (149 ERA+) this year in 24 starts with 3 shutouts. Dang that would've been nice here.
Escobar is back to the pain in the butt that drove him from Atlanta and here - 82 OPS+ and a negative WAR overall with negative defense
Hechavarria also has an 82 OPS+ but a small positive WAR (0.1) due to decent but not wow defense.
Marisnick looked good at one point but his 57 OPS+ this year with a 761 OPS in AAA has hurt his prospect status
DeSclafani looks good in the minors (2.6 BB/9 vs 8.8 K/9) but was hit hard in his 26 1/3 ML innings (57 ERA+)
Nicolino has a solid ERA in AA 2.98 but his 4.1 K/9 limits his projection

So the Miami trade's big cost is Alvarez, but the rest would not be high up on the Jays list of prospects or regulars.  The real cost of that deal is the salary cost to Buehrle & Reyes and the disappointment of Johnson (figured a draft pick would be the reward if things went poorly for the team in 2013 but instead got nada, FYI: Johnson has yet to throw a single inning anywhere this season).

No question there are 3 guys the Jays would like back, Alvarez, d'Arnaud and Syndergaard but only Alvarez would've been a big asset this year with d'Arnaud saving the cost of Navarro or pushing Navarro into a backup role.  Not doing those trades would mean Escobar at SS, Alvarez and who knows in the rotation to replace Buehrle & Dickey, and more prospects chomping at the bit to get here.  FYI: by bWAR Buehrle/Dickey/Reyes are worth 3.1/1.6/2.8 = 7.5 WAR while Alvarez/Escobar/d'Arnaud are worth 3.8/-0.6/-0.2 = 3.0.  That is a big spread, even if you don't add in negatives you would be 3.7 wins shy of what the Jays got. 

I'm hoping the Jays eventually start taking pitch framing as a serious criteria to judge catchers. Navarro is awful. When you factor pitch framing and defense in general with his offense, he's replacement level at best, but probably below replacement level overall. The Jays with Kratz starting at catcher are a better team. Too bad they don't value defense there, which is evident by JPA and Navarro being the team's last two catchers, and the team somehow thinking so little of Yan Gomes' defensive ability that they moved him to 3B (though maybe that was due to depth a catcher when TDA was here).

Blow this up. Rogers is not increasing payroll. It's a lost cause.

"Not that regularly."

Well, pretty regularly, I'd say. Given the opportunity, of course. Here are the numbers over Olerud's full seasons with the Jays:

1990 -- 10
1991 -- 6
1992 -- 11 + 2 (playoffs)
1993 -- 3 + 1
1994 -- 1
1995 -- 8
1996 -- 10

52 times in total.

It is very disappointing to see the club play so listlessly down the stretch.  In the last 2 years, the collapse has occurred in July and it is no less satisfying to see it happen in August.

Anthopoulos has had a so-so year.  In the way that is most visible to fans, the immediate performance of the major league franchise, the results suggest that his 2-3 year plan of acquiring top-end talent to add to Encarnacion and Bautista by trade has been a failure.  The cumulative performance of Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey cannot be seen any other way, and frankly their performance was, taken as a whole, worse than what one would have objectively projected. On the other side, the minor league system has had a very good year in 2014, and has in my view, more than compensated for a poor 2013. The other premise of the last 2 years was that the right  manager for this club was a Sparky Anderson type rather than a Whitey Herzog/Earl Weaver type; that premise has similarly been discredited. 

Can I see a way to 90 wins in 2014?  Sure.  The Blue Jays acquire a good defensive catcher and a good defensive shortstop- let's say Russ Martin and J.J. Hardy.   Stroman and Hutchison are in the rotation from day one and develop as they might (with the aid of a new pitching coach and a better defence). Norris joins them in mid-season.  All the free agents go. Encarnacion becomes a DH.   Pillar is your left-fielder, Pompey is your centerfielder, and Gose is traded for a first baseman who can catch the ball and hit a little.  Lawrie is healthy for  a full year.  Would it work?  Probably not, but the Jays lose nothing by trying.  The worst thing that happens is that the pitchers develop in a positive environment and both the outfielders flame out. I don't think that is what would happen.

Oh -- make that 53 times. I forgot to check the 1991 ALCS. It happened there once as well.

His strategy was "win now" and "win later."

Yes. (Yes to everything ChinaFan wrote, in fact.) And his strategy should still be "win now, win later." That means Bautista and Encarnacion stay put. Now by all means, trade Buerhle or Janssen in the next week if that's going to help down the road. This season's probably gone. But there's no reason to spend the off-season preparing to lose 85 or 90 games in the hopes of rebounding a year or two later. (To really succeed at that game anyway, you have to do something akin to what the Astros and Cubs have gone through.) No one knows what'll happen next year, but is there room for optimism? Sure. We've got a strong offence, some promising young pitching coming up, and we can probably improve defensively next year as well. Looking at the AL East, I don't see the Yankees and Red Sox being particularly strong in the next few years; those days might even be over. The Rays are good but they just traded away David Price and don't have much of a farm system by all accounts. And I doubt anyone's especially afraid of the Orioles. No reason for despair, that's all. A good off-season and we could easily be the favourites heading into 2015. Another off-season like the last one? Even there we'd have as good a shot as anyone.

The problem TUIB is probably budgetary.  With an additional $10 million committed to the 8 men under contract for 2015 (Reyes, Bautista, Buehrle, Dickey, Izturis, Ricky Romero and Navarro), $96 million is spoken for on 7 roster players.  The arb. players add up to $19 million.  If the budget is frozen at $135 million for 2015, it does not allow for much wiggle room at all for the GM to fill in missing parts.

I don't see why anyone would think the Blue Jays ought to be favourites in 2015 after two bad seasons and a .500 season.  I am a cup half-full kind of person (I projected that the Blue Jays would win 90 games in 2013- very wrong- and 84 games in 2014- might be close) and I don't see any reason to believe that.  I like Kevin Seitzer, and if the Jays can find a pitching coach and manager of his ilk, maybe I'll take a different view. 

Mike in your scenario did you mean Sanchez rather than Hutchison?

If you have the Ace, that dominant #1 Starter (like Halladay was), then R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are ideal quality acquisitions. Not having that Ace, doesn't change the fact that Dickey and Buehrle are still Quality acquisitions. They now must do more than should be required of them. There's always been room for two homegrown talents to join them.

What no one is considering is that Josh Johnson was a Front-line Starter when acquired and that's why he was acquired. He totally vanished as a pitching asset and that's bizarre and totally unexpected. Brandon Morrow was expected to be an in-house Front-line Starter, just because his stuff was so very good. And he's turned into a pumpkin who can't pitch. Ricky Romero was expected to be healthy and effective once again and that was a disaster in the making as he turned into a frog, who can't pitch either.

Marcus Stroman has very good stuff and is a very effective Front-line Starter, but he's not an Ace. Drew Hutchison has developed into a very effective Starter with good stuff, but he's not quite a Front-line Starter. Aaron Sanchez has the stuff, maybe the consistency, but not the experience to be a Front-line Starter, The Ace. He's still 1-2-3 years away.

I don't think this team goes anywhere without that dominant Front-line Starter, the Ace. And as good as the kids are, they are not there yet, and may never be.

Numerous reports say Nolan Reimold has been DFA'd and Kevin Pillar is being called up. The supposed reason is that the Jays need a 40 man spot for either Brandon Morrow or Daniel Norris.

This is curious on a number of levels. First, why now, why not wait until next Monday when you have more roster flexibility? Norris or Morrow are not being recalled today. Second why Reimold, why not Matt Hague or Cole Gillespie or some other player? Third, why take Pillar now when Buffalo are within one game of the playoffs?

I know the big club is the priority and who cares about Buffalo. Pillar should be better than Reimold and I guess there is still hope for the playoffs. Maybe its a move to try and keep the team over 500. Reimold's last hit was August 6th.

The Jays face one lefty this week, Chris Capuano on Friday. Pillar will be on the bench for most of the week.

MLB Trade Rumors and Official Blue Jay Press Release have confirmed your information Gerry, There's a lot more stuff there, but you got what's important, thanks.

Maybe Pillar is not coming up to sit on the bench. Maybe they are tired of watching Rasmus be overmatched. Maybe they know Rasmus is not coming back next year and they want to see if Pillar is a reasonable alternative until Pompey wrests the job away.

Sure, CBDC.  Make it Sanchez and Hutchison.  I still think that Sanchez is more likely to throw 100 superb innings out of the bullpen than 200 very good innings out of the rotation.  Both would be very useful for this club.

As for the decision to call up Pillar, it might mean there is a second move coming.  August 31 is near.  I hope that they are going to give him an everyday shot for the rest of the year.

This is curious on a number of levels.

a lot of curious transactions this year.  My guess is that once the braintrust decides a player doesn't fit in with the team long-term, they are cutting bait.  Hence Esmil Rogers getting called up, not pitching and being demoted, without concern for his being claimed.  Likewise, I'm guessing Drabeck isn't back in Sept and is out of the org.  Reimold's lost his role to Valencia.  even the bizarre marcus walden move fits this pattern.

Not sure if this is smart or not - Jeffress, Sierra and rogers all look decent with their new teams. 

And how does a guy with options like Chad Jenkins feel about the yo-yo?  Happy for the big league check, or stressed about living out of a suitcase?

crowing about the success of one's prediction

Hey, I'm not crowing. I got nothing to crow about. I didn't make a prediction (no reason, I just missed the prediction thread. Which is always a wise move anyway.) The closest I came to a prediction was:

The organization will do everything possible to win 80 games, in the hope that this will allow everyone to hold their jobs for another year.

We'll never know about that - the situation is unlikely to arise.

To be clear: I don't think Anthopoulos destroyed the farm system - I have no opinion on the subject. Prospects are bright and shiny things, most of which aren't going to amount to much of anything. I refuse to get excited about any of them. I believe in trading prospects for major leaguers, if you can do it. I think it's generally a great idea. So I don't think the long-term damage had anything to do with the players the team has given up, regardless of how well any of them have turn out. I think the long-term damage was done by the failure to go all-in. I think it's created a credibility problem for ownership and management. Not with the fans. With the players.

Nolan Reimold doesn't play much other than DH and LF. He was supposed to be a big bat off the Bench for us. Kevin Pillar can play CF, RF as well as DH and LF. He's supposed to be part of the future of this team.

There has been talk that Out of Options is no longer a guarantee of a job, if you are not effective, you are gone. I think the only reason Francisco is still on this team is his power potential and "promises' made.

Well, pretty regularly, I'd say. Given the opportunity, of course.

It's still not that much compared to how other managers run their teams. Gaston was pretty consistent on this sort of thing: for most of his managerial career he led the AL in fewest in-game substitutions. It's not often I've heard anyone worry about Cito Gaston making too many moves. (This applies to regular season only, of course. Unlike many managers, who insist on managing in the post-season in exactly the same fashion that they manage in the regular season, Gaston was a completely different manager in the post-season.)

Teams like Milwaukee, KC, Texas, Baltimore and Boston are going to blow up more than a few record predictions for 2014. I know mine is going to take a hit, although at the moment I don't feel too bad about my pre-season prediction for the Jays (77 wins).

In retrospect, the Miami trade doesn't look all that bad from a talent perspective. What hurts is the contracts the Jays took on. The team still has a decent amount of talent on the ML roster; what it lacks is the financial flexibility to augment that talent base. They also have some significant positional inflexibility, as some of their best offensive players (Bautista, EE, Reyes, Lind, Navarro) aren't very good defensively and can't be moved easily around the diamond. Plus, they're getting older and I wouldn't expect significantly better health from the veterans as a whole next year.

It's not a great recipe for success, although I agree that there is no harm in giving contention one more shot next year, based on the hope that Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, and Pillar can provide enough quality low-cost production that the team should be more competitive than it was this year.

Still, if the organization really plans on competing, it should probably move aggressively to upgrade a few areas. If they're going to spend another off-season hunting through the bargain bin for Franciscos or Tollesons or Diazes to fill these gaps, it could be another long season.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a certain amount of discontent starts to set in in the clubhouse. Losing gets old, and the organization seems to have squandered a lot of the goodwill it generated with its pre-2012 bold moves.

"....I think it's created a credibility problem for ownership and management. Not with the fans. With the players...."

The players, just like the fans, will jump on the bandwagon as soon as the team is winning.  Victory has a thousand fathers, while defeat is an orphan, etc.

Just want to mention how annoyed i still am at that two strike pitch to cespedes. Both an awful call bynavarro, and awful execution from sanchez. Just a horrible mistake to make on a hacker who was flailing at the fastball.

And valencia continuing to play vRHP, when he's not even an improvement over francisco defensively, is a real piss off too.

Nice to see pillar get the call. I like reimold, but this just reinforces that despite all the fans screaming for it, we really didn't need another rhh when we went out and got valencia. That being said, i do like valencia as a lefty masher more than reimold.

Hopefully pillar can finally figure out how to hit lhp in the majors like he does in the minors - because really pillar should have probably been on this team platooning with colby all year long.

"The Red Sox know better than to pinch-run for David Ortiz (at least they did when Terry Francona was managing) and Gibbons should know better than to pull Encarnacion from a tie game."

Funny you mention that.....because farrell has indeed pinchnrun for papi a number of times in tie games, thus being lost for extra innings, much to the bewilderment of the posters at SOSH.

As for the jays' roster construction, AA clesrly screwed up when it came to starting pitching.

Not that our starting pitching is awful, its just mediocre.....which would be ok except for the massive price in assets and money that AA paid to put together this mediocre pitching staff.

Our staff of Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow, Romero, Happ cost as much as any rotation in baseball, when you factor in both money and trade assets. It had to be one of the best rotations in baseball to justify the price, and it hasn't come anywhere remotely close to that. That's a pretty epic failure no matter which way you look at it.

Especially since a rotation of Alvarez/Stroman/Hutch/Nolin/Syndergaard/Sanchez probably wouldn't be far behind our current staff, if at all.

The players, just like the fans, will jump on the bandwagon as soon as the team is winning.

Absolutely. But I don't see that happening between now and this off-season.

Gibbons should know better than to pull Encarnacion from a tie game.

I assume Gibbons was worried about Encarnacion re-injuring his leg if he had to run hard. I don't think he was pulling Encarnacion because he wanted a faster runner. It was Nolan Reimold coming off the bench, after all.

Bill James was working a new counting stat the other day - Pitched Well But Did Not Win. Basically, it's Game Score of 50+ without getting a win. I haven't checked but R.A. Dickey certainly leads his own team in frustration.  Dickey's made 18 starts with a Game Score better than 50, and has just 7 wins to show for it.

Hopefully he takes a good look at the man in the mirror rather than blaming others.  He's received 4.76 runs/game in support.  He's had two outings where he allowed no runs over  6.2 innings (the team won and he was credited with the win both times).  He's had two outings where he allowed one run for 7 innings and 6.1 innings (the team won both and he was credited with the win).  He's had six outings where he allowed two runs (8.1 innings- team won, he won, 5.0- team won, he won, 5.1 team won, no decn, 6.0- team lost,   he lost, 6.0 team lost, ND, 6.0 team lost and he lost).  You get the idea.  Basically, he won the game when he pitched very, very well.  And he did so-so when he pitched so-so.  Two of the quality starts, Game Scores of 50+ were games in which Dickey allowed 5 runs in 7 innings (including one in which he allowed 4 homers).  That's not my definition of a quality start. 

And anyways, can we please banish the pitcher win into the void of antiquated metrics.  Maybe incorporate it into some Rube Goldberg machine- when the ball hits the glove, the machine can say "Roger Clemens wins the game" and us old folks can remember the day when it actually meant something.

The Tampa challenge to last weeks review-gate has been denied. Joe Madden must be upset.

I am not so sure, Gerry.  I thought that there was some even-up strike zone calling in Sunday's finale, and the toss of Bautista wasn't chopped liver either.

Gibbons should know better than to pull Encarnacion from a tie game.

I wasn't watching, but why wouldn't Gibbons have pinch-run with Stroman or Hutchison, thereby leaving Reimold's bat (the last RH bat) on the bench and available for a lefty reliever? He could have then dealt with Encarnacion's spot in the order, the next time it came to bat, with whomever he had not used by that point.

Gibbons seems to be fading as this season winds down, struggling with the X's and O's a fair bit.

That's true, Chuck.  Gibbons' season has mirrored the club's- quite streaky.  There have been times when he has managed (I felt) with some creativity along with attention to detail.  Other times, not so. 

Yeah i'm a huge gibby fan in general but this season has exposed some warts imo.

Rasmus is scratched tonight due to illness.

Oh, .500, our old friend. It's been a while, but deep down I knew we'd see you by Labour Day.

Where's Shea Hillenbrand when you need him?

Is Navarro a peeker?

I'm sick and tired of Gibbons making poor decisions -- pinch-running for good hitters with two outs, bunting runners to second, failing to anticipate counter-moves late in games.

But using Janssen for a second inning is right up there. He is clearly not at full strength or stamina. I wouldn't have used him this series, let alone for a second inning.

It's too bad the blogosphere has declared Gibby immune to criticism. If you ask me, "he's not the one swinging the bats," "managers don't make much of a difference anyway" and "ownership is cheap" are all not valid reasons to endorse the job Gibbons has done.

Prediction: whether he's here for months or for a few more years yet, this will be his last MLB manager's job.

Really though Janssen was done in that inning by his own terrible defence. He shouldn't have made that throw to 2nd on the first sacrifice bunt and booted a simple play right after. Basically gave away two outs on his own. The hit by Pedroia probably would have been an out with the fielders in normal position. All in all a pretty terrible performance on his part.

These games are getting hard to watch. What the hell has happened to the offence?

The so-called eliteness of the Jays offense is overblown. It was excellent for a month or so in May and early June, but the team has something like a 700 OPS since then (approximately two and a half months' worth of performance - including the brief offensive surge in July).

In other words, the offense has been mediocre for 65-70 games now.

Watch Adam Lind in this clip:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/lind-like-its-always-been/

This is not someone I'd want to expose young players to.

Thought Janssen was pitching well. Take the out at first and it's a different story.

And let's remember our lineup is just getting healthy again. How many games were we without Bautista-Lind-Edwin?? No BABIP luck tonight is the story.

The offense has dried up that is for sure.  In July the Jays were #1 in the AL for sOPS+, in August #15 of 15 and it isn't close - 77 sOPS+ vs #14 Boston 84.  A complete and total shift from elite to horrid.  That is one heck of an achievement.

How does that happen?  Figures before tonights game (Kawasaki should jump a bit)
Guys with negative (yes, negative) sOPS+ in August with PA in brackets: Francisco (45), Tolleson (20), Goins (27). 92 PA total
Guys with sOPS+ sub 70 (ie: John McDonald territory or worse): Encarnacion (37), Gose (25), Kawasaki (64), Thole (22), Reimold (41). 189 PA total
Others sub 80 (covers the rest under 100): Navarro (74), Lind (27). 101 PA total

So the Jays have had terrible offense over 382 PA in August from guys including ones who are key elements of the offense.  Many of whom were hurt or playing hurt this month.

In July the negatives were Mastroianni (24), Kratz (13), and Gillespie (3) = 40 PA, Others below 80 were Gose (57), Lind (18) and Glenn (7) = 82 PA = net 122 wasted PA.

I think we can see the difference.  Francisco has collapsed totally and completely in August.  Pitchers would out hit him now.  Tolleson is the same.  EE and Lind and Navarro doing poorly just kills the team as that is 1/3 of the lineup before factoring in that at least one of Tolleson/Francisco should be in the lineup each game. 

So what happened to them?  I am positive there is an injury for Francisco that is being hidden.  There is no way a guy goes from a 139 sOPS+ to a negative as the month shifts from July to August without being hurt.  And that is my biggest issue with the current team staff - they ignore injuries and follow the old macho image of 'let them play until they break or they aren't real men'.  You cannot do that and succeed in the long run and it is being shown in spades.  Janssen I'm sure is also hurt but no one is doing anything about it.

Sigh.  We'll always have May/June/July when the Jays were in playoff position and we could dream.

Casey Janssen's inability to go more than three outs is going to be an issue for the Jays for the balance of the season, and for Janssen, this offseason. Not being able to limit the damage in an inning is telling.

Sergio Santos isn't any better now than when he was sent down. That's too bad because he's not going to be given more than one more chance to make good. It's possible he's released within the next 7-10 days, if not earlier, which is more probable.

It's very nice to see the Offense starting to get their act together. It's just strange to have them score three runs when it no longer matters, rather than one run in any of the previous ten innings when it did matter. A little more concern with not making an out, is better than always than trying for the big hit, every single at bat.

John, the Jays problem starts earlier than you suggest.

I specifically find 6-8 June with St. Louis in for three as the big turning point of the season. For most of May and early June, the Jays are outhitting everyone. June 6th, they struggle to win 3-1. Over the next two games, they Jays are shut out 5-0 twice. From this point on, and until the All Star Break, they fall out of first with an 11-23 record.

My issues with this team start Game One through Game 30. I think being without Janssen until mid-May and Happ until early May, puts unnecessary pressure on everyone else. Of course, Morrow and McGowan were ineffective as Starters. But the Jays were in First Place or tied for First Place for about two weeks mid-April. Mid-April was the start of The Bullpen collapse.

I am positive there is an injury for Francisco that is being hidden.

You can't possibly be positive.

Janssen I'm sure is also hurt...

You can't possibly be sure.

And that is my biggest issue with the current team staff - they ignore injuries....

But can they ignore something that doesn't exist? Any philosophers around? Let's at least hold off on the criticism till we know if these things in your head are real.

Thought Janssen was pitching well. Take the out at first and it's a different story.

I thought he was as well. 2 of the 3baserunners reached on misplayed bunts. Bringing in Santos sealed the deal.

Reportedly Chad Jenkins has been recalled to help the bullpen. Looking at the roster it might be Kevin Pillar heading back to Buffalo unless the Jays decide to DFA someone.

I'm sick and tired of Gibbons making poor decisions -- pinch-running for good hitters with two outs, bunting runners to second, failing to anticipate counter-moves late in games.

But using Janssen for a second inning is right up there.

Given the circumstances -- extra innings with really only Santos left in the pen -- I don't fault Gibbons for bringing Janssen back out for a second inning. Where I do think he made a mistake was in not using Sanchez for one more inning. He'd pitched the day before so I can see why you wouldn't want to push him, but he'd only thrown 13 pitches and when it's tied late in the game like that you have to be thinking of extra innings. It's really the same as the point about pinch-running for Encarnacion and Lind -- not enough planning ahead.

Actually I'm starting to worry about how much Gibbons is leaning on Sanchez lately. He has pitched in 3 of the past 4 games - this is a kid who has only been a starter before the past month.  18-0-19-13 pitches over those 4 days.   Since his first game July 23rd he only once pitched in consecutive games and that was a sub 10 pitch game 1 followed by a 21 pitch game two after 4 days off and followed by 4 more days off.  To my thinking you have a very valuable kid here and you don't want to push it too far.  He should have today off for certain.

McGowan, an infamous injury case, also has thrown in 3 of the past 4 games.  Janssen too.  Meanwhile guys who have been around in the pen for awhile without major injury issues recently are every other day - Cecil and Loup.  Redmond has been in a game, 2 days off, in a game, 2 days off, in a game.  Santos in 2 of the past 3 and unsurprisingly had issues (2 HR, 1 BB 2 SO in 1 1/3 IP) - I felt he needed to stay down until September as he was still extremely wild in AAA, then only to be used in low pressure situations until he showed he could throw strikes at the major league level.  Instead he has twice been used in extra innings and now will probably be sent back to AAA (should clear waivers easily) and not return until 10 days from now (the mandatory minimum time to be sent down iirc unless injury is involved).

The pen was always Gibbons biggest strength but I worry he is starting to lose it as he sees the season going down.  Now 6 1/2 out of the 2nd wild card and 10 out of the AL East lead his job is in jeopardy with this August swoon. 

As to when the Jays collapse started, yes, that June date when they had a 6 game lead is an easy point to pick but as I mentioned the offense had the best OPS+ in July in the AL so it certainly was still effective then. 

So what about pitching?
July starters: 4.14 ERA, #11 in the AL
August starters: 5.26 ERA #13 in AL

July relievers: 3.43 ERA, #10 in AL
August relievers: 4.16 ERA #12 in AL

So the offense went from #1 to #15, while the starters and relievers also fell 2 notches (not as bad as the offense, but it hurt).  That is what killed the Jays. 

As an FYI: here is May
Starters: 3.42 ERA #2 in AL
Relievers: 4.40 ERA #14 in AL (ouch)
And June
Starters: 3.89 ERA #8 in AL
Relievers: 4.01 ERA #11 in AL

So the pen has been mediocre to poor all year pretty much, the starters had a hot May but otherwise have been fairly mediocre. 

The offense rank by sOPS+: April #5, May #1 (by a mile), June #9, July #1, August #15 (just behind Texas - another team built on offense).

This team was built with offense in mind.  That dying off completely in August is what dropped the Jays from playoffs to nothing and that is what should be blamed the most.  The fact the pen has been 'blah' all year should be leading to major questions on Gibbons as that is his #1 visible strength normally.  I still feel the Jays should've stolen someone from Tampa's coaching staff to manage - when you see a club doing far better than they should year in/year out you steal as many of their people as you can.  If the Jays can they should do so this winter.  Gibbons is a nice guy and maybe he can do the job long term but geez this has been a frustrating year and even if the Jays added Price and more at the deadline they'd still be dead in the water right now.

The players have made the decision easy for AA now - it is time to trade away players who others have interest in who aren't part of the long term picture.  If any other club wants Rasmus or Janssen then trade them even if just for a bucket of balls (don't see Rasmus getting a QO this winter).  If by some miracle Cabrera clears waivers then see what someone wants for him and if it is worth more than a QO take it and try to get him back in the winter.  Make a choice with Buehrle and Dickey - are they both part of 2015 or not and if one is not then see if he can clear waivers and trade for some value.

Once you are more than 5 back going into September you need to accept reality.  It is too deep a hole to realistically make a comeback from with just a month to play.  Especially with teams between you and playoffs (NYY for division, Detroit, NYY, Cleveland for wild card with Baltimore and Seattle the teams the Jays are chasing).

The Jays playoff odds, after hitting 80% earlier in the year (iirc) is now at 1.8% and the team is projected to finish at 81-81.  Sigh.

It's still not that much compared to how other managers run their teams.

I'm not trying to say it is, but in any case, how did other managers run ... Olerud? Or not run him, as the case may be. Well, in his eight full seasons (1997-2004) after leaving Toronto, including regular season and playoffs, he was pinch-run for 59 times. That's 7.6 times per season versus ... 7.6 under Cito. The same. So whatever you want to say about Cito's leave-'em-be approach, it didn't apply to Olerud. With Olerud, he was just as interventionist as the next guy. Actually, more interventionist than the next guy (Bobby Valentine), about the same as the nexter guy (Lou Piniella), and less so than the nextests (Bob Melvin and Joe Torre).

Going through Olerud's game logs, I was also reminded that Cito pinch-hit for him a fair bit over the years. Without checking, I'd guess that never happened to Joe Carter (blowouts excepted), despite the fact that for the years Olerud and Carter played together, 1991-96, Olerud was the better hitter every year except the first (even then it was close). Cito had his guys.

Just shoot me.

Echoing the thought, I just checked fangraphs. If Yan Gomes were on the Jays this year, he would be leading the team in fWAR (4.1), ahead of Bautista (3.9) (in 139 fewer PAs than Bautista).

In 2014, Gomes is making $513,000 (roughly 3.2% of Jose Reyes's salary).

Resource allocation is killing the Jays this year, and may well do so next year, too.

The Sportsnet clip jamesq refers to of Lind saying that the Jays' poor August is "like it's always been" in Toronto is concerning. Lind's comment suggests that AA and/or Gibbons may have lost the team. All is not well on Blue Jays Way, methinks.

It's hard to blame veterans like Bautista, Lind, and Janssen (who have been with the Jays for a long time) for becoming frustrated and cynical.

No doubt AA can run largely the same team out there in 2014, but at what point does player dissatisfaction become a distraction for the team (and, as James points out, a potential impediment to player development)?

The Yan Gomes thing is getting old. Yeah, the Jays lost and the Indians won. But 28 other teams employ scouts as well. If any other team saw Gomes as someone who would be anywhere close to what he is now, one would think AA could have gotten a lot more than Esmil frikkin Rogers for him.

Agreed. The dead horse has been beaten, but one can't help but be a little depressed when you look at most advanced metrics for catchers on both sides of the ball.

The last 6 weeks and particularly the last 2 have been very poor. Does anyone think it is really worrying that the team appears to have become really listless. Maybe the leadership thing is overblown but we have had both Bautista and Lind give negative comments. Bautista's was especially damaging as we were still in contention. Even if there is some truth in questions about the ownership's committment to winning/ expenditure he should never have put the comments out there in public.

We are in that dangerous hinterland between true contention and rebuild. As it stands without more money and the current financial constraints we are not going to see much change next year. I personally think now is the time to trade Bautista, probably with one of Reyes or Buehrle. Bautista is still a very good player with a great contract but is on the downslope. He could bring in elite ML ready prospects and also allow the team to shed a constraining contract. I just can't shed the feeling that if this was the Rays he would be gone already.

BREAKING: Team in slump doesn't appear overly happy and positive.

just shoot me and uglyone

The Yan Gomes thing is getting old. Yeah, the Jays lost and the Indians won. But 28 other teams employ scouts as well. If any other team saw Gomes as someone who would be anywhere close to what he is now, one would think AA could have gotten a lot more than Esmil frikkin Rogers for him.

I'm willing to cut AA a bit of slack on Gomes. I think Gomes might be similar to Bautista -- he was a player no one thought that much about, got traded for nothing, and then something just clicked once he changed organizations and instructors. It's unfortunate for the Blue Jays, but it happens sometimes.

d'Arnaud is the one I hated to lose. I thought the price for Dickey was too steep at the time of the trade, and I can't say that I like the trade any better today. While d'Arnaud may not have made much of an impact for this year's Blue Jays, it's worth noting that he's hit .270/.314/.494 in the 48 games since his return from the minors. Time will tell, but the catching situation for the Mets looks pretty good right now.

Gomes was consistently putting up good numbers throughout the minors, but the Jays just didn't think of him as a good prospect. He seldom got the number of AB's the good prospects get, and they started moving him around to different positions, as a kind of C/1B/3B sub. It seems like they didn't really think of him as a guy who could be a catcher. His offense was always good, at every level, especially for a catcher, but the counting stats weren't all that impressive due to the modest number of AB's. His OPS was consistently in the 800's or high 700's anyplace he had more than a tiny number of AB's. His career minor league numbers were a BA of .287, an OPS of .830, and he hit 37 HR's in only 1091 AB's in the Jays' minor league system. I always liked him and could never understand why they didn't give him more AB's. Sometimes an organization gets an evaluation of a player fixed in their minds, and they don't change that opinion despite evidence to the contrary, and I think that happened with Gomes. It happens to all teams. Evaluating players is really tough, and everybody has their biases. I'm actually impressed the Jays have made this type of mistake so seldom.

This year has seen AA do more of the 'crap, that was dumb, lets change it' type of decisions rather than sticking to his guns like before.  Jeffress, Wagner, Rogers, Delabar all fit that description on the pitching side along with McGuire - guys who you'd have thought were locks for this team who ended up in the minors or released with Delabar's 25 2/3 IP the most any of them got in the majors (0 for McGuire of course).

The big hole in his decision making seems to be injuries and how to deal with them.  Fix that hole and the team should be much better off.

It's hard to find anyone who cared when Gomes was traded. He didn't feature prominently on any Jays Top Prospects lists, and I think even his most optimistic fans considered him a solid utility player.

Some of that is probably pedigree - he was a 10th round pick, which people don't usually pay attention to unless they have head-turning numbers, and Gomes was merely decent in the minors.

It's worth considering that it was a recently-departed Blue Jays scout, Kevin Cash, who sold the Indians on Gomes' catching ability. No one out-scouted or out-evaluated the Jays - the Indians just happened to hire the one guy who thought Gomes was a MLB-catcher. And he was right.

Greenfrog:

"The Sportsnet clip jamesq refers to of Lind saying that the Jays' poor August is "like it's always been" in Toronto is concerning. Lind's comment suggests that AA and/or Gibbons may have lost the team. All is not well on Blue Jays Way, methinks. It's hard to blame veterans like Bautista, Lind, and Janssen (who have been with the Jays for a long time) for becoming frustrated and cynical. No doubt AA can run largely the same team out there in 2014, but at what point does player dissatisfaction become a distraction for the team (and, as James points out, a potential impediment to player development)?"

Well said greenfrog.

If I were management, I would not want someone on my team who thinks losing is something to laugh at and part of the team's identity. It is difficult though when your top players may feel this way. Something has to give, either a change in management or team chemistry through player changes.

Brandon Morrow pitching now for the Dunedin Blue Jays. He just K'd a hitter on a 96 mph fastball.

Happy to see Morrow back....as our closer.

Sorry Tabby, but Roberto Alomar came up as a second baseman. The Padres tried him at shortstop in his third pro year (AA Wichita in 1987), it didn't work, and they moved him back to second base.

Nick Cafardo tweeting that Dickey was placed on revocable waivers on August 25.

For those who missed it, Bautista was interviewed before today's game about his wishes for the future. He was asked if he prefers to finish his contract in Toronto and his answer was essentially, 'definitely and i hope to finish my career in Toronto'.

I love watching Stroman pitch (when he is "on").

Just for fun, if AA had done nothing but draft and re-sign players, our team would be:


1) 3B Lawrie (24): 282pa, 100wrc+, +4.6df, +1.6war, $0.5
2) LF Snider (26): 282pa, 113wrc+, -4.7df, +1.0war, $1.2
3) RF Bautista (33): 554pa, 149wrc+, -10.2df, +4.1war, $12.0
4) 1B En'cion (31): 422pa, 151wrc+, -13.8df, +2.7war, $10.0
5) DH Lind (30): 233pa, 135wrc+, -8.3df, +1.0war, $7.0
6) C Gomes (27): 411pa, 125wrc+, +12.1df, +4.1war, $0.5
7) 2B Hill (32): 488pa, 76wrc+, -3.9df, -0.5war, $12.0
8) SS Hechavarria (25): 461pa, 78wrc+, -5.2df, -0.1war, $0.5
9) CF Marisnick (23): 137pa, 49wrc+, +4.9df, +0.1war, $0.5

B) UT Overbay (37): 242pa, 89wrc+, -6.3df, -0.1war, $0.2
B) OF Wells (35): 0pa, 0wrc+, 0.0df, 0.0war, $21.0
B) IF Scutaro (38): 13pa, -20wrc+, -0.6df, -0.2war, $7.0
B) C Arencibia (28): 138pa, 58wrc+, -7.2df, -1.1war, $1.8

B) UT Sierra (25): 155pa, 64wrc+, -0.1df, -0.2war, $0.5
B) OF Pillar (25): 50pa, 51wrc+, +1.3df, +0.0war, $0.5
B) IF Goins (26): 132pa, 29wrc+, +6.4df, -0.1war, $0.5



SP Alvarez (24): 24gs, 6.3ip/gs, 2.57era, 3.40fip, 3.49xfip, +2.1war, $0.5
SP Stroman (23): 16gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.28era, 2.93fip, 3.32xfip, +2.4war, $0.5
SP Hutchison (23): 26gs, 5.8ip/gs, 4.68era, 3.98fip, 4.10xfip, +2.0war, $0.5
SP McGowan (30): 8gs, 4.9ip/gs, 5.08era, 5.05fip, 5.44xfip, +0.1war, $1.5
SP Romero (30): 0gs, 0.0ip/gs, 0.00era, 0.00fip, 0.00xfip, 0.0war, $7.5
SP Mills (29): 3gs, 5.4ip/gs, 4.41era, 4.48fip, 4.11xfip, +0.1war, $0.5

RP Cecil (27): 55gms, 43.2ip, 3.30era, 2.51fip, 2.55xfip, +0.9war, $1.3
RP Loup (26): 61gms, 60.0ip, 2.85era, 3.56fip, 4.01xfip, +0.7war, $0.5
RP Rzepzynski (28): 58gms, 41.0ip, 3.07era, 2.89fip, 3.36xfip, +0.5war, $1.4
RP Sanchez (21): 13gms, 19.2ip, 1.83era, 2.52fip, 2.50xfip, +0.4war, $0.5
RP Frasor (37): 52gms, 39.0ip, 3.00era, 3.52fip, 3.61xfip, +0.3war, $1.5
RP Jenkins (26): 21gms, 31.2ip, 2.56era, 3.48fip, 3.88xfip, +0.2war, $0.5
RP League (31): 51gms, 52.0ip, 2.60era, 3.50fip, 4.15xfip, +0.1war, $7.5
RP Janssen (32): 40gms, 36.2ip, 3.93era, 4.14fip, 4.08xfip, +0.1war, $4.0
RP Downs (38): 50gms, 34.0ip, 5.29era, 4.10fip, 4.33xfip, +0.0war, $4.0


Payroll of only about $105m. Not really near as good our current roster, though.

Although maybe this just points our how amazing a move it was to get rid of that wells contract.

Nice to see Cecil's era finally coming down to match his great peripherals. He's been our best rp by a good bit this year, imo, but has run into some tough luck.

Wouldn't mind at all seeing him used in more save situations the rest of the way.

• I see Cecil as a perfectly reasonable choice as the new closer as Janssen goes away this winter.  Cecil has 2 more years of arbitration before hitting free agency, so why not give him a shot and then he gets a nice payday if he does well as he heads off to California or wherever.
• McGowan is tempting, just one year before free agency and no way he gets a qualifying offer unless he moves back to the rotation (no chance).  So you can keep Cecil's value down while still in arbitration while hyping up McGowan a bit in case a mid-season trade is available.
• Loup they've already said they like in the pressure mid-game situations so he'll stay there.
• Redmond is a long man and I don't see that changing, same with Jenkins
• Delabar and Santos have too much trouble finding the strike zone
• Sanchez is the wild card.  If he doesn't make the rotation I could see the Jays doing a 'Kelvim Escobar' and tossing him in as closer for the year then hoping to stretch him out again next spring.  I'd prefer not, but I could see it.
  

Lots of possibilities, but I think the one used to get the Jays back over 500, Cecil in the closer role, is the best option going forward.

The Orioles sent Wei-Yin Chen down to the Gulf Coast League and called up a reliever, taking advantage of a rule that allows teams to recall minor leaguers once their team's season has finished, even if they've been in the minors fewer than 10 days. The GCL season ends in a few days, so they'll be able to recall Chen in time for his next start. The Jays could do that too with Stroman and get Gose or Goins up now. If I were Anthopoulos, I'd try to get both Gose and Goins onto the major league roster by Aug. 31. On the off-chance....

The problem TUIB is probably budgetary.

"Well I tell them there's no problem, only solutions." Three potential solutions, as I see it. First, Rogers increases the payroll. Don't know if that'll happen, but it might, and it'd certainly make the easiest solution. The more, the better. Keep on their case, Jose.

Failing that, the second solution is for Anthopoulos to improve the team while keeping payroll stable. This would involve poking around the trade and free agent markets for some help, but the general idea I think would be to keep the same basic offence (re-sign Melky) and hope to get by on cheaper pitching (trade Buehrle if possible, maybe Happ or Dickey too).

The third solution is to keep on keeping on (like a bird that flew...). Maybe you have to let Melky go, maybe you can't even find a way to upgrade elsewhere over the off-season, but you bring everyone else back for one more kick at the can in 2015. I suppose this is less a solution and more a fall-back, but whatever — even in this case (which, apart from Rogers slashing the payroll, is pretty much a worse-case scenario), I wouldn't count the Jays out at all in 2015. You take this year's team, subtract Melky and add the potential for contributions from Stroman, Sanchez, Norris, and Pompey — I guarantee you I'd be excited on Opening Day.

Tangled, wouldn't that mean that Stroman wouldn't be eligible for the post-season?

Yeah, you'd have to call him back up on Aug. 31. Send down a couple of relievers the same day (so play one game with a 5-man bullpen) and you should have room for at least one of Gose and Goins.

Congrats to Jason Parks. He is no longer at BP and is now a Scout for the Cubs.

I was worried the prospect coverage at BP would drop off after the Astros hired Kevin Goldstein but Parks did a fantastic job after taking over. His podcast with Mike Ferrin was just as good as Up and In with Goldstein. In the past several years, major league teams have hired away Goldstein, Parks, Colin Wyers, Mike Fast, Jason Cole, and Dan Turkenkopf from BP.