Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

On Wednesday the affiliates were 2-5, with wins coming from the DSL Blue Jays, and a walk-off win for Buffalo. Performances of the day came from Miguel Castro in Lansing, Marcus Knecht for Dunedin, and PJ Walters in Hew Hampshire.

Rochester 4 – Buffalo 5

Brad Mills gave the Bisons a quality start finishing with a line of 6IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 5SO. Ryan Tepera allowed a run in the 7th, and Steve Delabar allowed a run in the 8th. Sergio Santos pitched a scoreless 9th to close out the game, while anxiously waiting for the call back to Toronto.

Darin Mastroianni hit a solo HR (5th) in the first off of Twins prospect Alex Meyer. In his Bisons debut, Matt Hague went 3-4, driving home two in the 6th with a single. Despite starting the game 0-4 with 4k, Anthony Gose had a walk-off single in the bottom of the 9th bringing home Matt Hague.

New Hampshire 8 – Trenton 2

PJ Walters threw 7 scoreless innings, allowing 6 hits, with no walks, and 6 strikeouts. Blake McFarland pitched a scoreless 8th, while Scott Gracey gave up 2 runs in the 9th.

Jon Berti was 3-4, with a 2 run HR (7th), Andy Burns hit a 2 run HR (13th) and Brad Glenn hit a 2 run HR (6th) in first game back with New Hampshire after a stint with the Bisons.

Lakeland 7 – Dunedin 5

Ben White had a disappointing start allowing 5 earned runs on 10 hits over 6 innings. Danny Barnes pitched a scoreless 7th. Tony Davis came in to pitch a scoreless 8th, but allowed 2 earned in the top of the 9th.

Markus Knecht had possibly the best game of his career, going 4-5, with 2 doubles, and a 2-run HR while driving home 5. Mitch Nay was 0-3 in his Dunedin debut, with a walk, and 3 strikeouts.

Lansing 0 – West Michigan 2

Miguel Castro was brilliant, pitching 7 scoreless innings allowing only 3 hits, with 1 walk, and 3 strikeouts. Unfortunately Matt Dermody gave up 2 runs in the 8th and was credited with the loss dropping his record to 4-5.

The Lugnuts only managed to have 5 hits, which were a bunch of singles spread out across the lineup.

Boise 4 – Vancouver 1

Ryan Borucki was let down by his defense, as he finished with a line of 4IP 3H 4R 2ER 0BB 3SO. Yefry Del Rosario came in for a scorless 5th, and was relieved by Matt Smoral. Matt pitched 4 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit, with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts.

The Canadians only had 4 hits, 2 came from Ryan McBroom who scored the only Canadians run in the bottom of 9th, when he hit solo HR (9th).

GCL Blue Jays 1 - GCL Yankees 2

Jacob Brentz was solid in his 4 scoreless innings of relief, allowing no hits, with 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts. Nathan DeSouza was 2-4, with 2 doubles, while scoring the only Jays run in the 9th off of a Dave Pepe single.

DSL BlueJays 8 – DSL Brewers 0

Three Stars

1. Marcus Knecht

2. Miguel Castro

3. PJ Walters

Posted by tercet on Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 10:37 AM EDT.

Marus Knechted | 75 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

John Northey - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#292322) #

Santos now is up to 9 2/3 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 6 walks, 15 strikeouts, and 1 hit by pitch. How frustrating he must be to the Jays - if he could find the strikezone consistently he'd be worth those options years easily. Instead he is in AAA and will probably be back up for September.

FYI: Santos had exactly 4 years ML experience before this season. I think he has been down long enough (over 20 days) that he now will be listed as needing an extra year to reach free agency. So the Jays have him for 2 more years even if they decline his options (as they will since $6 mil is way too much for him next year).

Gerry - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#292323) #

Rivhard Urena has been promoted to Vancouver and Rowdy Tellez to Lansing for the last ten days of the season.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#292324) #

Urena with Barreto is very interesting. I wonder if they will be promoted to the same level in 2015 with a view for them to get very familiar with each other (in the Trammell-Whitaker style). For now, it's presumably just a playoff push for the Cs.

I am a bit puzzled why the club would promote Tellez to Lansing rather than Vancouver. Tellez has gone .400/.458/.680 in August with a positive W/K. Maybe the club thinks that something has clicked and is contemplating a promotion to Dunedin to begin 2014.

hypobole - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#292325) #

Could you add a star for Jon Berti? He was, as noted, 3-4 on the night and did homer. However, the HR was a grand slam and his other 2 base hits were triples.

Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#292326) #

I imagine Tellez went to Lansing due to the presence of McBroom in Vancouver. McBroom will likely skip Lansing and go to Dunedin in 2015 (and split 1B/DH duties with Matt Dean), while Tellez is getting his feet wet at the same level he'll start at next year.

jerjapan - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#292328) #

FYI: Santos had exactly 4 years ML experience before this season. I think he has been down long enough (over 20 days) that he now will be listed as needing an extra year to reach free agency. So the Jays have him for 2 more years even if they decline his options (as they will since $6 mil is way too much for him next year).

That's interesting John - I had thought that declining an option in this situation made the player a free agent. what happens in this case - arbitration?

Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#292329) #

I guess that makes sense. McBroom is hitting well in Vancouver.

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#292330) #

Withball the promotions, it seems that barreto staying put is a bit strange, given that he's dominated his current level like nobody else this year.

John Northey - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#292335) #

I assume you mean Franklin Barreto (the Jays also have a guy Deiferson Barreto who is hitting 287/313/390 in the GCL, is 19 and a 2B/3B).

Franklin Barreto has done well at just 18 years old 316/389/500 in Vancouver at SS. I suspect the Jays want him to have a stable year at one place, then next year could be a 'push' year, starting in full season A Lansing then moved to A+ in June or July. Then at 20 years old in AA with a shot at the majors if he does really well again.

#2JBrumfield - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#292337) #

I was hoping to see Tellez here in Vancouver but he'd be just a bat off the bench at this case given the C's are okay with the bats, the last two nights not withstanding. I guess he'll be this year's Matt Dean, who was not called up to Vancouver for last year's playoff run.

Calling up Urena makes sense if only to help the team's defence at short. As good as Barreto is with the stick and as much consideration as he'll get for the Northwest League MVP award, he really hasn't shown any improvement in the diamond. His throws are either too short or too high and Ryan McBroom has saved him a few errors at first.

Borucki was really victimzed by some bad defence. McBroom couldn't handle a grounder at first, the next batter hit a bloop to right that Gunnar Heidt could not get to from second base. Heidt then made a poor throw to Barreto in what could have been a double play ball. In the later innings, Trent Miller lost a ball in the lights in left field as it fell about 10-15 feet beside him in the later innings though it did not lead to any runs.

At least Tri-City lost so the C's remain 0.5 games back for first despite a 13-14 record.

85bluejay - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#292339) #

That injury in Australia really hurt Shane Optiz - he may have made it to AA otherwise - I've always liked him - will probably play in the AFL - Gerry/Lansing fan or anyone who has seem Optiz play, what's his defense like? can he stay at SS or is he more a 2b/utility guy

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#292340) #

I'm trying to put together a list of top 10 best prospect performances in our system this year. Not necessarily best prospects, or best tools, or best upside. Just best performances this year relative to age, level, and defensive projection.

I'll try to list the stats and rationale at some point but so far i have this:

1. LHP D.Norris 21
2. CF D.Pompey 21
3. SS F.Barreto 18
4. SP A.Sanchez 21
5. SS R.Urena 18
6. CF D.Smith 21
7. RHP M.Castro 19
8. C D.Jansen 19
9. 1B R.Tellez 19
10. RHP R.Borucki 20

The guy i struggled with most was Sanchez. Pretty much the only reason he even makes the list at all is his impressive 16ip as a reliever in mlb. Though that probably is a pretty good reason, given that any mlb success at 21 is pretty great, even though his performances in aa and aaa were middling to poor.

Gerry - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#292341) #

From the not inspiring camp we have this tweet from Jesse in Lansing:

D.J. Davis is three strikeouts away from tying Justin Jackson's Lugnuts franchise record (154) for K's in one season.

Ouch! We all know how that ended for Jackson.

Gerry - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#292343) #

uglyone, here are a couple more for you:

Kevin Pillar in Buffalo has hit really well.

Kendall Graveman has pitched at three levels.

Jairo Labourt, Matt Smoral and Jacob Brentz have pitched well in the short season leagues

Matt Boyd and Taylor Cole probably miss because of their AA struggles.

MatO - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#292344) #

Uglyone, best top 10 list I've seen so far. You would get not argument from me that these are the best prospects period, with no caveats except that Borucki is a LHP not RHP (but he has been terrific).

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#292345) #

Pillar was tempting, but at age 25 the performance bar is really high, and with 151 mlb pa i'm not even sure we can call him a prospect anymore....and after september callups that will likely be for sure. I may be cheating but i left him off as not being a prospect anymore.

Graveman was very tempting, but i pretty much dismiss his A+ numbers at his age, and his 3ish fip at AA and AAA is good but not dominant, and a very small sample....so at this point i have him just missing the cut......but i wouldn't argue too much if someone included him.

I'd add evan smith to that list of young pitchers you had there (smoral/lietz/labourt) but i think the guys at the bottom of my top 10 have been a bit better than those guys given age and level, but it's close. Lane Thomas wasn't far off either.

Evan Smith, Labourt, and

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#292346) #

MatO - you might be right but its hard to leave hoffman, pentacost, osuna, and nay out of the top 10 convo i think.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#292347) #

I don't know what I would do with Pillar on a prospect list. I think that if you gave him an everyday job starting in 2015, he'd probably be an average player. I suppose that he has some chance of being better than that. On the other hand, he is 3 and 1/2 years older than Dwight Smith, and it is unclear what Smith might become. I think that I'd probably rather have Pillar, although I like both players.

MatO - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#292348) #

I think the prospects need to perform. I would argue that Jansen was better than Pentecost considering their ages, actual performance and levels they played. Hopefully, Smoral and Labourt have solved their control issues but Borucki has already ticked that box.

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#292352) #

Pillar v. Smith is interesting.

At 21, pillar was in rookie ball putting up a similar line (139wrc+) as smith is in A+ (132wrc+). Pillar did reach A+ at the end of his age 22yr and wasn't as good (110wrc+).

But even if we give pillar the benefit of the doubt and say his offense was similar to smith's overall, there's still a big difference in approach. There's a decent chance that pillar's no-bb approach is a fatal flaw, while smith has a much better bb rate. Not the be all and end all but that's one flaw that pillar has that smith doesn't, and it us a significant one.

What's nice about smith is that his line this year is very similar to last year's solid line...except this year he's added some credible power to his line, and somehow managed to reduce his k rate significantly at the same time, without losing anything in avg or bb%.

Smith isn't a sexy prospect but there's a lot to like there.

MatO - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#292354) #

A big change for Smith is that he's gone from being pretty bad against LHP in Lansing to a reverse platoon against LHP in Dunedin.

PeterG - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#292355) #

Not to be overly critical Ugly as the list seems well thought out, but one can't agree with everything....so I will suggest that Smith does not belong in top 10, certainly not ahead of Castro. I too think that Graveman should have been included......whatever one may think of his ultimate potential, his performance this year has been tremendous.

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#292356) #

Criticize away - that's why i posted it.

But i still say smith is performing every bit as well in A+ this year as graveman did.....except he's 2yrs younger.

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#292357) #

....and smith/castro are super close in performwnce this year imo. Smith in A+ and Castro in A- were similarly good, with 2yrs and 2 levels separating them.

Castro has been bumped up a level but hasn't been as good....but then again now he's onky one level down and still 2yrs younger.

In fact, i may have listed castro ahead in my original draft.

Gerry - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#292358) #

Miguel Castro has been promoted to Dunedin, I assume to start in the playoffs. The D Jays already have Cole and Boyd set to go.

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#292359) #

Pompey in CF and leading off tonight, with Gose shifted to RF and down to #2.

Wonder if that lights a bit of a fire under Gose's a$$.

In his first at bat, Pompey struck out. In his first at bat, Gose singles, steals second, steals 3rd...and scores on the wild throw to 3B. not bad.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#292361) #

The right-centerfield gap has never seemed smaller. Norris went 5 innings, allowed a home run and no other hits, 3 walks and 9 strikeouts. The Herd lead 5-1 after 6.

hypobole - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#292362) #

Gose now up to 4 SB's on the night, Pompey with his 1st AAA hit and another good start for Norris 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 9 K's.

Also, good to see Osuna with his 1st good start for Dunedin.

uglyone - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#292363) #

4sb? lol. he must be pissed.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#292364) #

The right-centerfield gap has never seemed smaller.

And a middle infield of Goins and Diaz. Those Buffalo pitchers have it good.

JB21 - Thursday, August 21 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#292367) #

How often does a AAA team have better D than their major league team?

Also, Norris with 32 k's in 16 AAA innings, and is apparently second in MiLB in K's this season. Do we have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in our system?

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#292368) #

One possibility that has been sifting through my mind for the Jays of 2015 is for Bautista to be moved to first base, Encarnacion to DH, and running out an outfield of Gose, Pompey and Pillar/Reimold/Cabrera. Against LHPs, you bring Valencia in to play first base and move Bautista to RF. I believe that Bautista would be an above-average defensive first baseman if given the reps; you'd want to practice the OF relays a lot- Bautista could take the whole right side of the diamond a la Keith Hernandez . If you can somehow get your hands on a good defensive shortstop (like Hardy), you'd then have a very good defence to support the young talented pitchers.

John Northey - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#292369) #

Wouldn't be surprised if it is normal for defense to be better in AAA. Teams like to have a speedy OF or high end defensive SS in AAA ready to step in during injury periods but often these guys cannot hit for even a 70 OPS+ thus why they are stashed down there. Although the Jays current situation is getting extreme. Goins and Diaz both were providing elite defense in the majors as was Gose this year and Pompey has a rep of being great too. Mastroianni is also a CF who was in LF last night. Nickeas is a defense only catcher, not sure how good Matt Hague at 3B or Dan Johnson at 1B are. Still, that is a lineup that, if it could play in the majors everyday, would give you up to 6 strong gold glove candidates (now that LF/RF get their own GG instead of all 3 going to CF). That outfield could take the old nickname 'Death to Flying Things'.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#292370) #

yeah John that sounds about right. AAA is stacked with the uber-defense-can't-hit AAAA types who MLB teams like to keep as 3rd or 4th stringers.

I'm not sure about Bautista shifting to 1B, aside from age projections. Seems that he's a much better fielder than Melky out there, and moving to 1B would take away his one real defensive asset - his arm. Melky would be the guy that should be moved to 1B/DH, imo.

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#292371) #

Bautista is more nimble with the glove and moves better than both Lind and Encarnacion. And that is with very little practice. I doubt that Cabrera would be a decent defensive first baseman, but he's never played the position so I really don't know.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#292372) #

Pompey as the starting CF in 2015 would be a very aggressive promotion.

Keith Law mentioned the Jays' flurry of promotions in his latest chat:

Joe (Toronto)
Thoughts on Daniel Norris' promotion to Triple A?

Klaw (1:07 PM)
They're rushing prospects to AAA for reasons I don't fully understand (or that I do understand and with which I disagree). Letting a guy go around a league twice has real value. Neither Norris nor Pompey got that in New Hampshire.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#292373) #

Funny. Law didn't seem to mind the red sox "rushing" the bogaertses and bettses through their system.

Gerry - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#292374) #

I had a theory or two on why the Jays are rushing some guys....and it is just a theory, or speculation if you prefer.

Theory #1. After the trade deadline there was some noise in the media that some veteran players were uspet with the lack of reinforcements and they might ask to be traded at the end of the season because they wanted to win. If we assume there is some validity to these reports, bringing up Norris and Sanchez allows AA to pitch these veterans on what a good pitching staff we will have in 2015, how the staff will be cheap, so he can spend money elsewhere to strengthen the lineup.

Theory #2. All the speculation about Beeston heading out might be true and that might make AA somewhat more fearful for his job. Pushing the kids gets good PR for the GM.

Paul D - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#292375) #

Depends on how good you think Norris is. I remember some articles when Lincecum came up. He was rushed, but the prospect consensus seemed to be, if you have a guy who's dominating like this, just bring him up. Don't waste his time in the minors.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#292376) #

Speaking of the red sox, i'll be keeping an eye on the prospects rankings this year. Their much lauded system has been a huge dissappointment this year, with only 3 prospects having good years - betts, owens, and swihart.

Even then, all the midseason rankings remained very high on their system, including all of them listing owens and swihart in their top 25s and even top 15s.

Here's how the top 2 in esch system comoare this year.....and note that the jays' duo is probably the toolsier pair of prospects:

LHP D.Norris (21.4): AAA 16.2ip, 1.08era, 1.02fip --- AA 35.2ip, 4.54era, 4.03fip --- A+ 66.1ip, 1.22era, 1.91fip
LHP H.Owens (22.1): AAA 26.2ip, 3.51era, 3.83fip --- AA 121.0ip, 2.60era, 3.15fip

CF D.Pompey (21.8): AAA 4pa, 32wrc+ --- AA 127pa, 137wrc+ --- A+ 317pa, 150wrc+
C B.Swihart (22.5): AAA 49pa, 69wrc+ --- AA 380pa, 131wrc+

(and pompey projects as likelier to be a plus defender).

Younger, toolsier, better performance....it'll be interesting to see just how far the rankers just how far back the jays' duo will be ranked, even though they should probably be ranked ahead.

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#292378) #

I have an alternative theory. Sanchez and Norris are being pushed because the organization now believes that it is better to give top young pitching prospects substantial time in the major league bullpen as a form of apprenticeship. I would be in favour of more high minors starts for both (in light of their control issues), but if one is planning to send them to the bullpen for a prolonged apprenticeship, it's not the same thing at all as putting them in the rotation with insufficient minor league experience. Pompey is being pushed because he is a centerfielder, who can contribute enough right now with the glove, that he is immediately better than any of the other options available to the club (I don't know this to be the case, but he was given the GG last year for the entire minor leagues while in Lansing). Here is the minor league record for Willie Wilson. As you can see, Wilson kept getting promoted although he was barely hitting at all. Pompey was arguably the best hitter in FSL and then hit in the EL. He is pretty clearly ahead of where Willie Wilson was offensively.

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#292379) #

PaulD, I thought of Lincecum, of course. He had decent control in the high minors to go with the dominating stuff. He and Roger Clemens are the two recent (within the last 30 years!) exceptions to my general rule that starting pitchers need significant high minors work. Dwight Gooden had no high minors work whatsoever despite poor control in the low minors, and it worked out swimmingly from a performance perspective. I don't know that being a major leaguer at age 19 was good for him as a human being.

JB21 - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#292380) #

I believe a fellow named Jose Fernandez was also "rushed" to the major leagues by the Miami Marlins.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#292381) #

Henderson Alvarez seems to be just fine.

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#292382) #

One year and a quarter and then TJ for Fernandez raises some questions. Probably he would have had the same result had he gone up at a typical pace through the minors, but it might be that a lesser workload with less intensive competition could have resulted in a different path. Put it this way- it is not an unqualified success.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#292383) #

Red Sox just signed Rusney Castillo for the next 6yrs, plus whatever is left of this one, for $72m.

Baseball America put together all his scouting reports and numbers and came up with Rajai Davis as a comparable.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#292384) #

Good points. I think part of what's going on is simply that the team is addressing its immediate needs and assessing its options for 2015. The Jays don't seem to have much extra cash to spend these days. Stroman and Sanchez essentially filled vacancies in the rotation and the bullpen this year (with McGowan moving to the 'pen - as expected - and the loss of Delabar, Santos and Wagner for various reasons). Pompey and Norris could be useful, inexpensive ML players next year, making it that much easier to construct the rest of the roster.

I'm not saying the fast promotions are a good or a bad thing, but they are noteworthy (and worthy of critical analysis and debate).

Speaking of improving the defense, I would like to see the Jays improve their infield defense and defense at catcher. I guess with Reyes and Navarro fixed at SS and C next year, that leaves 3B, 2B and 1B to work with. Mike Green proposed one solution; there may be others. Probably the best move would be to acquire a very good two-way second baseman.

I believe Cabrera will sign elsewhere after the season, as re-signing him (desirable as this might be in the short term) probably would not be the best use of scarce resources for the Jays, given his market value.

Sano - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#292385) #

It's hard not to see their sudden rush to promote prospects as anything other than an attempt to change the conversation around the team from pessimism to optimism. While I don't disagree with the promotions per se, I do think that it's highly cynical of the Jays to suddenly swing from being notoriously cautious with promotions to the opposite extreme.

This, combined with the sudden move to stick young starters in the bullpen to begin their MLB careers, gives the impression that the front office is just grabbing at straws to try to see what works. It doesn't inspire confidence in their abilities in the least.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#292386) #

Castiilo's contract might be indicative of teams' increased willingness to spend on defense.

The Jays probably like the fan buzz that comes with all the home runs, but they'll probably need to improve the team's defense if they want to actually make the playoffs.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#292387) #

Not sure "rushing" is anything new.

MLB Debuts after....

T.Snider (20): AAA - 0pa, AA - 423pa
D.Hutchison (21): AAA - 0ip, AA - 32ip
H.Alvarez (21): AAA - 0ip, AA - 88ip
B.League (21): AAA - 0ip, AA - 104ip
A.Gose (21): AAA - ~200pa, AA - 587pa
B.Lawrie (21): AAA - 329pa, AA - 662pa
J.Litsch (22): AAA - 15ip, AA - 130ip
A.Lind (22): AAA - 137pa, AA - 378pa
K.Drabek (22): AAA - 0ip, AA - 260ip
B.Cecil (22): AAA - 80ip, AA - 78ip
S.Nolin (23): AAA - 0ip, AA - ~50ip
M.Rzep (23): AAA - 11ip, AA - 77ip
M.Stroman (23): AAA - 35.2ip, AA - 120ip
A.Hill (23): AAA - 168pa, AA - 565pa
A.Rios (23): AAA - 195pa, AA - 563pa

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#292388) #

All the position players on that list had significant time at AA (much more than Pompey was given).

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#292389) #

Not sure if Castillo qualifies as "spending on defense". His ability to be a good defensive CF seems to be a big question mark.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#292390) #

You mean the way Puig and Abreu's offensive abilities were a big question mark before they signed?

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#292391) #

Not sure what you mean.

According to fangraphs, Puig's been worth -7.2dwar in 222gms.

Abreu's been worth -8.4war in 112gms.

Sano - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#292392) #

I was speaking specifically about the AA front office, not the previous regime. So Snider, League, Litsch, Lind, Cecil, Hill and Rios can all be struck from the consideration as they, from my memory, all were brought up on JPA's watch. Even if they were given the last bump up to the MLB by AA, they shouldn't really be considered in my opinion.

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#292393) #

FWIW, the first of the promotions was Sanchez from New Hampshire to Buffalo in mid-June. The Blue Jays were in first place. Sanchez struggled in the Buffalo rotation and was moved to the bullpen in mid-July around the time of the major league All-Star break. The Jays were 4 games back. He was called up about a week later after two good triple A relief outings (Janssen had the infection and the bullpen needed help). By the end of July, the Jays were 1.5 games back (thanks in no small part to Sanchez). The most cynical view of this would be that the organization was trying to distract attention from the fact that they were not making any deadline moves due to budgetary limitations. I don't subscribe to this view. Sanchez has always pitched well out of the pen, and I see it as a very conscious decision made in response to the situation on the field and Sanchez' qualities as a pitcher. But then, I have always thought that he would end up as a relief ace...

China fan - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#292394) #

Sano, I think you're missing the point that Uglyone is making. Uglyone is saying, if I read him correctly, that the Jays aren't necessarily doing anything new now. There's been no sudden "change of philosophy." The Jays have often promoted their top prospects to the high minors or majors at a young age. You can't just look at the past 4 or 5 years and claim that there's been a shift -- you have to take a longer perspective, going back to previous administrations too.

Your claim was: "I do think that it's highly cynical of the Jays to suddenly swing from being notoriously cautious with promotions to the opposite extreme." This is a dubious description of what happened. You're exaggerating the two extremes. They were never "notoriously cautious" and they're not now at the other extreme. I think your cynicism is unwarranted.

By the way, someone did a careful analysis of the recent promotions and concluded that there's no indication of a radical change of philosophy by the Jays. It's worth a read. The link is below. (And yes, I know the author is a young university student, but it still seems like a well-researched and well-reasoned analysis.)

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/philosophy-change/#sthash.MovVXov6.dpbs

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#292395) #

I don't have an issue with the promotions so far, but I don't agree that it is consistent with the pattern of prior years. Pompey's promotion pattern is nothing like that of Gose, Lawrie, Hill, Rios and Lind (all of who got a whole season or most of one in double A, as well as some triple A time). Pompey got less than a month in double A once you factor out the injury. Snider was something of an exception and one that earned the organization some criticism. Pompey is being promoted on a Sniderish schedule, but the thing is that if he hits like Snider, it will be all right because of his added defensive value.

The pattern of pitching promotions is a little harder to ascertain, but usually pitchers have had 10-15 successful starts in double A at least prior to promotion either to triple A or the majors. Sanchez' starts weren't really successful (3.82 ERA with 40 walks in 67 innings). Norris had 8 starts with an ERA of 4.51 and 17 walks in 35 innings. All of the pitchers prior to these guys had done better in double A. The difference is that they were being groomed for starting roles immediately in the major leagues. League is different because he was a swing man in 2004 in the EL , and got a September cup of coffee in the major league pen.

You can't just look at innings pitched. You have to look at effectiveness and role, both in the minor leagues and in the major leagues to fairly consider promotion patterns.

China fan - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#292396) #

"....I don't agree that it is consistent with the pattern of prior years..."

I think there's too much natural variance to expect a consistent pattern. We're only talking about a few key prospects each year who can be promoted fast or promoted more cautiously. So the sample size is quite small. And then within that small sample, the performance of the various prospects -- and their maturity level and psychological makeup and physical skill level and mechanics etc etc -- is naturally going to vary widely. What might be right for one prospect might be wrong for another prospect. I don't think you can analyze it on the basis of innings and games and at-bats and expect that the proper promotion pace should fit that narrow band. It's going to be all over the map. That's just the way it is.

Sano - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#292397) #

I think if I'm honest, my beef is primarily with the promotions of Sanchez and Pompey. Norris seems to be on fire, and as China Fan said, promotions are based in large part on a holistic perspective of the prospect. Everything we know about Norris seems to tell us that he's ready for each new step.

Now with Sanchez, maybe the Jays knew something about his mentality such that they knew a promotion to AAA would be good for him. My worry is that they've rushed him there and now not given him enough time to address some of his evident control problems. Furthermore, with the switch to the bullpen and his success there, he's now going to be expected to make the MLB rotation next year. And if he fails to do that because his control problems resurface, what will that do to his confidence level? What happens when he gets sent back to AAA to keep working on his control issues? I hope that doesn't happen, but it's a problematic situation to give a prospect the idea that they've made it, only to take it away from them again.

Pompey - slightly less concerned about this given that he was actually doing quite well at AA. But the concern is there. He's still really young and he wasn't dominating AA. Why move him up?

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#292398) #

Mike Trout played 286 games in the minors after making his professional debut at age 17 (as did Pompey). Trout played his first full season in the majors at age 20.

Pompey has played 308 games in the minors (22 more than Trout played). He ascended at a slower rate and will be 22 in December. If he breaks camp with the Jays in 2015, he'll have followed something of a Trout-lite trajectory. It would be an aggressive promotion, but it might not be that radical a move.

Sano - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#292399) #

Comparing Trout to Pompey is a bit of a stretch. Trout should not be the measuring stick for what is/is not a radical promotion path.

Spifficus - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#292400) #

Pompey would have to be added to the 40 man over the winter has shown some adjustment to AA, and has skills that would be useful down the stretch. I don't see any issue with getting him in line for a September taste.

1990Jays - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#292401) #

Pompey's 137 wRC+ would have been good for 6th in the Eastern League if he qualified, and even compared to his real prospect peers he was still among the younger players in the league. I don't know if that quite would qualify as "dominating" but its pretty impressive

John Northey - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#292402) #

If you check most top players you'll find short periods in the minors due to a general rule - if they have the talent they can do it in the majors and teams hate to leave quality down in the minors.

The Jays record for speed would be John Olerud who debuted in the majors and didn't see minor league time until near the end of his career.
Leader for pitcher WAR (B-R) and time in minors...
Kershaw: 220 1/3 IP over 44 starts & 4 relief games over 3 seasons
Felix Hernandez: 306 1/3 IP over 48 starts & 10 relief games over 3 seasons
Kluber: 639 1/3 IP over 116 starts over 5 seasons
Scherzer: 159 2/3 IP over 30 starts (3 relief) over 2 seasons
Sale: 10 1/3 IP in11 relief games in one season (!!!) all at age 21. Wow.
Cueto: 348 1/3 IP in 61 starts (8 relief) over 3 seasons
Porcello: 125 IP over 25 starts in one season (age 19)
Hamels: 201 IP over 36 starts over 4 seasons
Wainwright: 784 2/3 IP over 135 starts over 6 seasons
Richards: 398 1/3 IP over 69 starts over 4 seasons

So for the top 10 you have 5 with under 300 IP in the minors, and just 2 with over 400 IP, none reached 800.

Jay kids...
Stroman: 166 2/3 IP over 3 seasons
Sanchez: 356 1/3 IP over 5 seasons
Norris: 252 IP over 3 seasons
And other kids...
Graveman: 194 2/3 over 2 seasons
Nolan: 426 2/3 over 5 seasons

So Stroman was a bit low but obviously was ready. The rest are all in the right range of minor league IP to be ready for the majors if they are of high quality. So calling kids up around the 200-300 IP mark is not unusual nor harmful if they have the talent.

Sano - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#292403) #

I would agree with one addition to your last sentence Northey - that they have the talent and have demonstrated that they are more than likely to succeed long-term. Stroman okay, I'll grant you that. Sanchez, I'm not so sure.

China fan - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#292404) #

Another point is this: a prospect doesn't have to be completely "ready" for the majors when he is promoted. As long as he can contribute something to the team, as long as he's not hurting the team, and as long as he has the maturity to handle it, then a prospect can benefit from an early taste of the majors. It can accelerate his development and it can help him to make the adjustments that every prospect must make if he's going to crack the majors. A substantial taste of the majors in 2014 can improve the chances that a prospect will be ready for a full-time role at the beginning of 2015. It can help him to overcome the nervousness, the intimidation, the pressure, and all the other psychological barriers to performing well in the majors.

Now, of course, there's always the risk that a prospect can fail and his confidence can be damaged. This is often mentioned as a big danger for a prospect who is "rushed" to the majors. But is this "shattered confidence" really such a common phenomenon? I would honestly wager not. I'm sure it sometimes happens, but I think it must be far less common than some of us believe. When someone like Travis Snider struggled in the majors, was it because his "confidence was shattered" or was it because he just wasn't quite as talented as we hoped? Personally I'd bet on the latter.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#292405) #

Mike Green said: "Pompey is being promoted on a Sniderish schedule, but the thing is that if he hits like Snider, it will be all right because of his added defensive value."

now that you pointed out, it's actually a very Sniderish schedule.

what's really cool, and actually a bit shocking, is that Pompey is actually performing MUCH BETTER than Snider at the plate at the same levels, albeit he is 9 months old than Snider was that year.

and Snider was an all-bat prospect who was considered one of the very best prospects in baseball.

again remembering that Pompey is 9 months older in this comparison, this is Pompey's 2014 vs. Snider's 2008:

A+

Snider: 66pa, 7.6bb%, 33.3k%, .371babip, 149wrc+
Pompey: 317pa, 11.0bb%, 17.7k%, .380babip, 150wrc+

AA

Snider: 423pa, 12.3bb%, 27.4k%, .333babip, 121wrc+
Pompey: 127pa, 11.0bb%, 14.2k%, .330babip, 137wrc+

AAA

Snider: 70pa, 5.7bb%, 22.9k%, .426babip, 146wrc+
Pompey: ?

MLB

Snider: 80pa, 6.3bb%, 28.8k%, .400babip, 110wrc+
Pompey: ?

Not only is Pompey putting up better overall numbers than Snider did at those first two levels, but he's putting up MUCH better BB/K numbers, which IMO is a pretty huge deal.

Looking back at Snider's path there certain numbers stand out and SCREAM that he was being rushed. The K rates were scary at every level, his overall 121wrc+ at AA wasn't exactly overwhelming and begging for promotion, and his 146wrc+ at AAA and 110wrc+ at MLB came with .400+ babips.

With Pompey, we're getting so far better overall performance, AND none of the glaring warning signs which we should have seen with Snider. Snider's K rate was double Pompey's.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#292406) #

"1990Jays - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#292401) #
Pompey's 137 wRC+ would have been good for 6th in the Eastern League if he qualified, and even compared to his real prospect peers he was still among the younger players in the league. I don't know if that quite would qualify as "dominating" but its pretty impressive."

made all the more impressive by the fact that his first couple of weeks there were abysmal.

First 10gms: 40pa, .091avg, .231obp, .152slg, .383ops
Last 19gms: 79pa, .375avg, .430obp, .597slg, 1.027ops

In fact, he finished his AA stint with a 10gm hitting streak:

Last 10gms: 41pa, .405avg, .463obp, .595slg, 1.058ops

kid kinda was dominating.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#292407) #

I did make a big stink about Sanchez and Norris being promoted too quickly, but based on what Norris has done in AAA I was clearly wrong.

And in general, the bullpen and starting are radically different, and I don't think putting them up a level or two as bullpen help really qualifies as rushing so much. And they were always going to end up in the bullpen this year thanks to innings limits anyways. Whethere they're in the bullpen in AAA or MLB probably doesn't make much of a difference to their development path as SP.

JB21 - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#292408) #

Is there that much of a difference between AA and AAA? I understand the worry when a prospect is rushed passed A+ (they say "the AA jump" is the toughest) but I don't see an issue between promoting a guy from AA to AAA. A lot of prospects go from AA straight to the bigs.

Hodgie - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#292409) #

For those interested in some Friday afternoon/evening prospect porn, MILB has video of Norris from last night's game here. I could get used to seeing that on a regular basis in Toronto soon.

smcs - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#292417) #

By the way, someone did a careful analysis of the recent promotions and concluded that there's no indication of a radical change of philosophy by the Jays. It's worth a read. The link is below. (And yes, I know the author is a young university student, but it still seems like a well-researched and well-reasoned analysis.)

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/philosophy-change/#sthash.MovVXov6.dpbs

They looked at the promotions from this year, and gave reasons for why the promotions happened. They didn't look at the history of top prospects within the Jays system, so they have no way of judging if something is or isn't a radical change in the philosophy of the Jays.

Using the Batter's Box Top 10 prospects as a guide, Anthopolous has been loathe to promote top prospects more than once a year. Of the 40 prospect seasons, 7 of them have been promoted more than one level in the year that they were listed in the Batter's Box Top 10.

Marcus Stroman jumped from Vancouver to New Hampshire the year that he was drafted, with his season ending when he got suspended for PEDs. Drew Hutchison went from Lansing to New Hampshire in 2011. Kyle Drabek went from New Hampshire to Toronto in 2010, making 3 September starts in Toronto, after the New Hampshire (and Las Vegas, which he bypassed) season had ended. Sean Nolin jumped from New Hampshire to Toronto last year for almost just long enough to actually drink a cup of coffee. Noah Syndergaard jumped around in 2011, making a handful of starts in 3 stops, ending in Lansing, and starting 2012 in Lansing, and staying there the whole year. D.J. Davis moved around a bunch in 2012 (GCL to Bluefield to Vancouver (for 5 games)), before settling into Bluefield last year.

Simply put, under Anthopolous, the movement of Daniel Norris and Dalton Pompey is a departure from the rest of his time in Toronto. The only guy doing close to what Norris and Pompey have done is Drew Hutchison, who utterly dominated in Lansing, before being promoted at the mid-season mark to Dunedin, and then utterly dominated in Dunedin, before getting promoted for 3 August starts in New Hampshire (which he was utterly dominant in).

China fan - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#292444) #

So it happened once with Hutchison and twice with Norris and Pompey. Is that such a radical departure? Looks like an increase from one case a couple years ago to two cases this year. Not really such an extreme departure from the past.

bpoz - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#292468) #

Pompey & Norris have earned their promotions. Only Pompey has to be added to the 40 man roster for this Dec's Rule 5 draft.
In AA's tenure players with options remaining is a very big factor in not making the team.
A Sanchez & D Pompey will have used no options when ST starts next year. I expect them to burn 1 option next year. They definitely have to be full time players next year. If Norris is promoted this year then I see him burning an option next year too. I would not promote him unless I thought that he could make a decent contribution towards making the playoffs. We could use more offense. The injuries to EE, Lind & Lawrie really hurt.

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