Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

There are 26 weeks in the baseball season, and 20 of them have been played. Which means - natch - that there are six weeks remaining.

Five AL teams are going to the post-season, and it's pretty clear that Baltimore, Oakland, and Los Angeles are taking three of those spots. The Orioles will win the AL East; either the A's or the Angels will win the AL West, with the second place team settling for a Wild Card.

Which leaves the winner of the AL Central and the identity of the other wild-card something which we're going to need these next to determine. There are seven teams still more or less sniffing after these two spots, but only three of them - Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland - have both the division title or the Wild Card as a more or less realistic possiibility. The other four teams - Seattle, New York, Toronto, and Tampa Bay - are playing for the Wild Card game.

Let's see what's in store for everyone. ESPN's standings page assesses each team a percent chance of making the post-season. We'll use that as our seeding method. With one modification.

1. BALTIMORE (70-52) POFF chance: 92.4%.

ESPN's formula thinks both Los Angeles and Oakland have a better chance of making the playoffs - not that 92.4% doesn't represent a High Likelihood of possibility - but anyway, they're nuts. The Orioles have a 7 game lead on the team closest to them (the Yankees); the A's and Angels have a 5.5 game lead on the team that can overtake them (Seattle.) And at this point, even I would be more worried about the Mariners than the Yankees. The Orioles also have one of the softest schedules of any of this year's contenders - just 14 of their 40 remaining games are against teams with winning records, and those teams - New York and Toronto - are barely breaking even. Oakland and Los Angeles have 10 games remaining with each other.

ROAD (19) - White Sox (3), Cubs (3), Red Sox (3), Rays (3), Yankees (4), Blue Jays (3)

HOME (21) - Rays (4), Red Sox (3), Yankees (4), Reds (3), Twins (4), Blue Jays (3)

2. OAKLAND (73-51) POFF chance 98.6%

The A's have slipped a couple of percentage points behind Los Angeles, but I agree that their chances of winning the division are slightly, slightly better than that of the Angels. The teams have ten games, three series, to play with each other. Six of those games will be in Oakland. Slight edge to Oakland. Their schedules are very similar - but the A's get three games with the Phillies, and the Angels get the Marlins. Slight edge to Oakland. If they haven't settled it during their final meeting, when the Angels visit Oakland - well, the Angels have to go play Seattle while the A's go play Texas.

ROAD (18) - Astros (3), Angels (4), White Sox (4), Mariners (3), Rangers (4)

HOME (20) - Mets (2), Angels (6), Mariners (3), Astros (3), Rangers (3), Phillies (3)

3. LOS ANGELES (72-50) POFF chance 93.9%

See above. The Angels have a lot of road games left - of the other contenders, only Seattle has to play games on the road. The Angels also have to go to Cleveland for a makeup game on one of their two remaining off-days. It's the little things...

ROAD (23) - Red Sox (4), A's (6), Astros (2), Twins (4), Indians (1), Rangers (3), Mariners (3)

HOME (17) - Marlins (3), A's (4), Astros (3), Mariners (4), Rangers (3)

4. KANSAS CITY (68-55) POFF chance 71.7%

It's the longest post-season drought in baseball, and this could be the year it ends. The Royals have been a streaky team: they ran off a 10 game winning streak back in June, and they've currently won 18 of their last 23. In between those two hot spells, they offered up runs of 1-6 and a 1-7. You just don't know with these guys. But the Royals do have what is quite clearly the softest schedule of any of the team's still fighting for a post-season spot. Their biggest edge on the Tigers may be the six games Kansas City has with Texas.

ROAD (19) - Twins (1), Rockies (1), Rangers (3), Tigers (3), Yankees (3), Indians (3), White Sox (4)

HOME (20) - Yankees (1), Twins (3), Indians (3), Rangers (3), Red Sox (4), White Sox (3), Tigers (3)

5. SEATTLE (67-56) POFF chance 71.6%

ESPN seems very confident about Seattle's chances to grab the second Wild Card. I like their chances better than Detroit's, too - but Seattle's lead on Detroit is still only half-a-game. They're actually tied in the loss column. And Seattle has to play 24 of their 39 remaining games on the road. Granted, the Mariners have been the best road team in the AL this year, but still - playing on your home field is an advantage. It's built into the game, even if the 2014 Mariners seem unaware of it. They also have a lot of good teams left on the schedule - only the three AL East pretenders face a tougher schedule over the final six weeks.

ROAD (24) - Phillies (3), Red Sox (3), A's (3), Rangers (4), Angels (4), Astros (3), Blue Jays (4)

HOME (15) - Rangers (3), Nationals (3), Astros (3), A's (3), Angels (3)

********************************

Let's pause here, because this gives us our playoff matchups: Baltimore, Kansas City, and Oakland win the divisions, while Los Angeles and Seattle meet in a Wild Card game.

But there are other contenders and pretenders!

***************************************

6. DETROIT (66-56) POFF chance 43.1%

It occurs to me that the Tigers' season somewhat resembles Toronto's. Both teams went on an early tear that pushed them into a big lead; they both went on to play throroughly mediocre baseball for a couple of months and gave it all away. In mid-May, Detroit was sitting pretty with a 27-12 record and a 7 game lead in the division. In the three months since, the Tigers have gone 39-44, but the lead was still 7 games less than a month ago - it was still 5 games just a couple of weeks ago. But it's all gone now. Detroit's front-line pitching is so strong that if they manage to make it to the post-season, they should scare the daylights out of anyone they meet. But I don't think the rest of the staff is going to be good enough to get them there. On the other hand: while Detroit's overall schedule is tougher than Kansas City's, they do have 6 games left with the Royals. The Tigers have kicked Kansas City's butt pretty convincingly in their head-to-head meetings.

ROAD (21) - White Sox (4), Twins (7), Indians (4), Rays (3), Royals (3)

HOME (19) - Giants (3), Royals (3), Yankees (3), Indians (3), Twins (4), White Sox (3)

7. CLEVELAND (62-61) POFF chance 10.1%

Yup, ESPN's formula says that Cleveland's playoff chances, however remote, are still better than New York's. Or Toronto's. Ouch. Although the Indians are further back in the Wild Card chase than the Jays or Yankees, they're closer to the top of their division than the AL East teams. Which is what represents their outside chance - the Tigers continue to sputter along slightly below .500, and the ever-streaky Royals suddenly go streaking in the wrong direction. Cleveland has 23 home games remaining (only the Yankees have more), which is also something to notice. The Indians have the biggest home-road split in the majors. They're one of the best teams in the AL in their own park, and one of the worst when they go on the road. You'd also think that playing 9 of their final 42 against the Twins would help at some point, even if it hasn't helped them yet (5-5).

ROAD (19) - Twins (6), White Sox (3), Royals (3), Tigers (3), Astros (4)

HOME (23) - Astros (3), Tigers (4), White Sox (3), Angels (1), Twins (3), Orioles (3), Royals (3), Rays (3)

8. TORONTO (64-61) POFF chance 8.0%

Not really a contender at this point. Like Detroit, the Jays were once sitting pretty - they were 38-24 with a 6 game lead in the division on June 6. They've played .413 ball since then (26-37), which means they've spent the last two months playing just like Houston. The Astros, who have played at this level all year long, have gone 24-38 over the same period. Oh well. At least we had the Heady Days of May. Like the Yankees above them, and the Rays below them, the Blue Jays have to play a lot of teams with winning records in their remaining games. The Jays are 16-7 against Boston and Tampa, and those two teams account for 15 of the remaining 37 games. But they have losing records against Baltimore and New York, who they have to play 13 times. Like Cleveland, the Jays have a significant home-road split. It's nowhere near as extreme as Cleveland's, but it's there, so playing 22 of their final 37 at home ought to help a little.

ROAD (15) - Brewers (2), Rays (3), Red Sox (3), Orioles (3), Yankees (4)

HOME (22) - Rays (6), Red Sox (3), Yankees (3), Cubs (3), Mariners (4), Orioles (3)

9. NEW YORK (63-59) POFF chance 5.9%

I don't really know why ESPN likes Toronto's chances better than New York's - but in either case, it hardly matters. Neither team is really a contender at this point. The Yankees have 13 games left against Boston and Toronto, and they've played .600 ball (15-10) against those AL East rivals. So that's a good thing for them. But they also have 8 games left with Baltimore, and the Orioles have been whipping the Yankees whenever they meet. As the Bombers are extremely unlikely to catch anyone they need to catch, let us take note that Derek Jeter's last baseball game will be on September 28 at Fenway Park. This is a great big deal, folks. We're not likely to see another shortstop get 3000 hits anytime soon. The last one before Jeter retired in 1917, which suggests that the next one to come along will make his or her debut around 80 years from now. You won't be there, and I probably won't either. That's literally a once-in-a-lifetime player.

ROAD (16) - Astros (3), Rays (3), Red Sox (3), Orioles (4), White Sox (3), Blue Jays (3)

HOME (24) - Rays (3), Red Sox (3), Royals (4), Tigers (3), Blue Jays (4), Orioles (4)

10. TAMPA BAY (61-63) POFF chance 4.2%

Never really a contender at all, which management clearly understands, but the players obviously didn't get the memo. You got to admire that. When the Jays were sitting atop the division at 38-24, the Rays record was the exact opposite, 24-38. Tampa, who had just snapped a 10 game losing streak, then lost another four in a row. That gave them 14 losses in 15 games. They were 18 games under .500, and 15 games back of Toronto. Well, that was then, and this is now. Tampa has gone 37-20 in the two months and change since then. They're not going to catch anybody they need to catch if they want to play into October. But I bet they catch and pass Toronto. They've got 9 games left with the Jays to get it done.

ROAD (19) - Blue Jays (6), Orioles (4), Red Sox (3), Indians (3), Yankees (3)

HOME (19) - Tigers (3), Red Sox (4), Yankees (3), Orioles (3), White Sox (3), Blue Jays (3)

Posted by Magpie on Monday, August 18 2014 @ 03:30 AM EDT.

Six Weeks To Go | 48 comments | Create New Account

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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#292170) #

Toronto can determine it's own future, right now. Win and you should be in. From August 19th to September 14th the Jays play 23 games against teams they should easily beat. They need to win 18 to 23 of these games to have a chance.

Right now Gibbons has to better balance the team's lineup, because what he's working with right now isn't working.

TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#292172) #

Good read, Magpie. The reason the Jays get better odds than the Yankees, and have been for most of the season, is the run differential (or some similar analysis of their underlying performance). The Jays are at +9 on the year while the Yankees are at -37. So their records are similar but the Jays are still viewed as the better team. Also, if ESPN is doing something similar to FanGraphs (they might even be using the same source for all I know), then injuries are also taken into account (i.e., it's not just based on past performance but on a projection of who'll be playing over the next month-and-a-half and what they're expected to do). So the uncertainty over Masahiro Tanaka is probably dragging the Yankees down.

The run differential probably also explains why the Orioles have lower odds than the A's and Angels. Actually, as I look at it now, ESPN has the Orioles and Angels virtually tied (93.1 to 93.8). The Orioles differential is +54 while the Angels are +87, so they probably agree with your analysis that the Orioles are in a better position, but they're viewed as a worse team, which balances things out. The A's, meanwhile, despite being tied now for the division lead with the Angels, maintain a 98.8% chance on the basis of a +161 differential (far and away the best in baseball). Odds of 98.8 perhaps does seem rather high, but then again, it'd be pretty hard for the A's to fall all the way to the 3rd wildcard position. Remember, even if the Angels beat them out and the Mariners catch them too, they can still get the 2nd wildcard.

Mike Green - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#292173) #

Actually, I think Baltimore's odds are too high in the analysis. I think that they are perfectly capable of going 15-24 in their remaining games. Machado is out. One more significant injury would make it a realistic possibility and two would make it likely. We know what that's like...

When the oddsmakers had the Blue Jays at 85% in June, I also thought that it was too high. The oddsmakers are not, in my view, sensitive enough to the effect of injury on win distribution patterns.

Magpie - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#292174) #

The run differential probably also explains why the Orioles have lower odds than the A's and Angels. Yeah, that's probably it. Me, I'm more impressed with the fact that the Orioles just seem to get better and better as the season goes on.

I should probably explain my methodology (such as it is) in assessing the strength of everyone's remaining schedule. I just took the W-L record of the the opposition in every remaining game. Toronto has two games with Milwaukee, who are 70-55, which works out to 140-110. And so on.

The opposition for everyone. Obviously, the most desireable opposition has a losing record:

Kansas City 2261  2535  .471
Baltimore   2393  2540  .485
Oakland     2286  2408  .487
Cleveland   2548  2621  .493
Los Angeles 2439  2506  .493
Seattle     2383  2440  .494
Detroit     2431  2489  .494
Toronto     2313  2238  .508
New York    2513  2425  .509
Tampa Bay   2388  2282  .511

All of these numbers will be out of date in like, sixteen hours. But it's something for now!

Jonny German - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#292175) #

"We're not likely to see another shortstop get 3000 hits anytime soon."

Makes one wonder again how it would have worked out if A-Rod had bumped Jeter off shortstop in 2004. On paper he should have, coming off of 2 straight Gold Gloves at shortstop and with Jeter having a terrible defensive reputation at the time.

As it turned out, of course, Jeter went on to win the next 3 Gold Gloves and 5 total, while A-Rod fell short of 3000 hits.

uglyone - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#292193) #

That quote made me think.....and go check out our Jose Reyes.

1730 hits 3/4 of the way through his 31yr old season.

If he can stay healthy and productive, he might challenge 3000. He'd need to average something like 180 hits per year until age 38. Obviously less than that if he plays longer than that like jeets did. Not impossible.

He's on pace for almost exactly 180 hits this year, even though he missed three weeks to injury. 200ht pace over a full season.

uglyone - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#292195) #

Jeter had 1936 hits after his 31yr old season.

John Northey - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#292201) #

It isn't easy to get to 3000 hits. Just 28 players have done it. A-Rod, should he get to play out his contract (at this point I expect he will) will make 3000 (at 2939). Ichiro is next at 2812, will anyone give him the playing time needed? Beltre next at 2559 and with a 140 OPS+ at 35 he should get the opportunity to make it. Pujols should be a lock (2479 so far, signed for 7 more years). Miguel Cabrera is at 2137 at 31 years old, so I wouldn't bet against him. For middle infield you get Cano at 1799 and Reyes at 1730 - should be interesting to see if Reyes can keep up.

3000 is a fun number. Kind of lost its power for awhile when Rose was over 4000 (I know I barely noticed Carew getting 3000 due to the hype over Rose at the time) but seems to be getting it back now that the PED era is over (more or less). A-Rod won't be celebrated but others should be.

James W - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#292202) #

It wasn't the oddsmakers that are making up these percentages, it's Fangraphs simulating the rest of the season, and taking recent play with more weight. So when the Jays were hot, they made the playoffs in 85% of simulations.

Mike Green - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#292206) #

Fangraphs has a different issue with adjusting for injury in mid-season. Take the Tigers' projections right now. Justin Verlander is projected to throw 40 innings with an ERA of 3.68 over the remainder of the season. He's had shoulder problems and hasn't pitched since August 11. He has pitched poorly this year. It is not reasonable to expect that he will return from injury and will pitch at about the same level as if you were projecting him at the start of 2015. Anibal Sanchez is projected to throw 20 very effective innings. He is projected to be out another 2-3 weeks. Over a short recovery period, his projection ought to be significantly discounted.

In other words, it is advisable to take the % chances with a good size grain of salt and look at the underlying reasoning.

Parker - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#292212) #

There's no way Reyes gets to 3000 hits. He's already got a long injury history despite just coming out of his prime years, and even in his early 30's he doesn't hit well enough for his bat to carry his terrible defense at a premium defensive position. For him to still be a productive hitter in his mid-to-late 30's despite a non-elite walk rate or the ability to hit for power seems very optimistic. A Julio Franco-esque career length doesn't seem like even a remote posibility, and that's what Reyes would need to have a shot at 3000.

For a long time, many people thought Johnny Damon and Michael Young were virtual locks to reach 3000 hits; they are/were similar players to Reyes - hitting for average, medium-range power, decent but not great plate discipline.

Reyes isn't Jeter - in addition to Reyes' being an objectively inferior player, he also doesn't have Jeter's inexplicable mystique that allows him to keep playing badly for a very long time and piling up the counting stats despite not being able to field his position or producing enough as a hitter to become a full-time player at a less-demanding position.

Mike Green - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#292213) #

Damon and Young were both 200-300 hits behind Reyes at the same age. I doubt that he's going to do it because of his injury issues, but if he is healthier in his 30s than in his 20s (which happens occasionally), he's got a decent shot.

uglyone - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#292214) #

Funny how we view Reyes. He's still one of the best SS in baseball this year.

5th in wRC+ and tied in 3rd in WAR for SS this year. Good chance at being a 4+war player again this year, even though he missed 20gms to injury.

defensively he grades out as just below average this year, not awful. Fangraphs gives him +0.8dwar, B/R gives him -0.3dwar.....pretty much the definition of mediocre defensively.

and even with injuries, he's had 180+ hits in 2 of the past 3 years....and looks like he'll be close to making it 3 of the last 4yrs this year.

looks like he's on pace for yet another 30+ sb season, too.

Not just one of the best SS, actually.....he's still one of the best leadoff men in baseball this year.

uglyone - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#292215) #

and looking at the SS stats I noticed our good friend Yunel.....not only us Yuni back to being the awful hitter he was for us in 2 of his 3 years here.....but suddenly he's become a disaster defenisvely this year too....grades out worse than ALL SS with 300+pa....even worse than the godawful Hanley Ramirez.

Escobar's worth +0.1war this year. yikes. even in his bad years with us he was worth 1.7 and 1.4war.

The Rays must really feel like suckers for signing him after his nice season last year. I think they're stuck with him for another couple years still.

TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#292216) #

Bill James used to use a formula for measuring chances at getting 3000 hits. If you pro-rate Reyes's current stats for the rest of the season (which he should actually beat, if he stays healthy), he ends up with a 13.9% shot of getting to 3000 hits. If you fudge the numbers a little, and ignore last year when he only had 113 hits due to injury, you can get to something like a 22% chance. So even if he stays healthy, he's only got an outside chance at 3000, but it's certainly possible. According to this same formula, Reyes should have about 5.1 years remaining after this season.

Thomas - Monday, August 18 2014 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#292217) #

Your nightly sign that 2014 is not Toronto's year: Erik Kratz has hit two homers for the Royals tonight and they lead the Twins 6-4 in the bottom of the 9th.

Kratz entered the game in the 7th inning.

TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#292218) #

Not to mention that the Orioles beat Chris Sale. Man.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#292222) #

uglyone, Reyes' defence is the subject of an interesting metrics question. DRS has him as -15 runs/150G over the last 4 seasons (which equates to 3 full seasons). UZR has him at -5. Fangraphs uses the UZR number for WAR calculation. Subjectively, he's varied quite a bit this year but overall he has been quite bad. Even his throwing (a former strength) has been very erratic. It would be fairer to average the two ratings and make him a -10 fielder (subjectively, I think that he's closer to the DRS number).

And as for his offence, he's hitting .280/.340/.416 in a hitter's park, with a wRC+ of 110. That's a little less impressive than Coco Crisp and a lot less impressive than Kole Calhoun. He's been an above-average player and a decent leadoff hitter, but no more.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#292223) #

Mike - if you go by the leaderboards at FanGraphs you get Reyes as the #4 shortstop in MLB. On offense he is #3 but for offense you get Hanley Ramirez (with bad defense), big gap, Jhonny Peralta (great D), Reyes, then another big gap before the rest. Switch to 100 PA instead of qualified and you get Troy Tulowitzki, big gap, the ones above, Danny Santana (with Twins), then the rest.

Offensive shortstops are few and far between. Right now we see 5 in MLB. Two are great fielders (Peralta & Tulowitzki), the rest mediocre to poor. There are 5 who provide as much on defense as Reyes does on offense (Cozart, Hardy, Peralta, Aybar, Simmons) with Cozart & Simmons major holes on offense, Hardy & Aybar small negatives, and then Peralta who is having a wow year in all respects.

Basically at SS you have 9 guys who can do something really well, be it offense or defense. 2 are 'wow' in both, Reyes is one of those with a 'wow' side and a 'meh' side. FanGraphs says he is pretty much a $15-20 mil a year player so he isn't providing a ton of extra value but is certainly someone who would be very hard to replace. Escobar, who the Jays gave up to get Reyes, seems to alternate - either a $15-20 mil a year player or a sub $7 mil player alternating year by year since 2009. Hechavarria (also gone in that trade) is a 0.2 WAR guy this year after negatives his first 2 years - he is a pure defense guy with negative UZR/150 ratings - ick.

Now, last winter Peralta was available but signing a middle infielder entering their age 32 season is one heck of a risk ($53 mil over 4 years) and he'd have demanded more from the Jays than the Cardinals (many take less to play in St Louis for an assortment of reasons). That is really the only other option the Jays would've had other than Reyes and odds are we'd all have said 'stick with Escobar' if he had the same year here as he did in Tampa last year (assuming the trade didn't happen).

What alternatives do the Jays have to Reyes? Watching the merry-go-round at 2B we can tell no solid in-house solutions are here yet with the best prospects a few years away. I really don't see much point debating Reyes as he is here for a few more years and no realistic solution is here to replace him.

soupman - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#292225) #

Reyes was my favourite player before he was a jay. his defense has been very bad this year. the worst are the errant throws...i think something is up that is causing him to lose his release point because i don't remember him ever being this bad. his range is...limited. back when i went ga-ga for him, he was an all-arounder.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#292227) #

There is actually a point for the organization to figure out at some point before spring training 2015. The club has medium term needs at second base. Munenori Kawasaki (and perhaps Ryan Goins) are useful players, but better cast as utility players. The club has to decide whether it is looking for a shortstop, a second baseman or either. My own view is that the better answer is a shortstop with Reyes being told that he is moving to second base, although what is available affects the response. This club does not have a $200 million payroll and cannot afford the luxury of poor and declining defence at shortstop for several years. At this point, the middle infield free agent class for 2015 includes Jed Lowrie, Stephen Drew and Asdrubal Cabrera. It might be that Cabrera is an affordable option in light of his tepid numbers in 2013 and 2014; he is best cast as a second baseman at this point in which case the discussion is moot.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#292229) #

I see that Hardy is a free agent too. He is, of course, a better defender at shortstop than any of the available options.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#292231) #

Hardy would be nice... projected for the next 4 years at 3.2, 2.8, 2.5, 1.9 WAR on FanGraphs which is a $10-15 mil a year player. Making $7 mil this year so he provides extra value right now, but who knows once free agency hits. Stealing him from Baltimore would be sweet.

Still, the big question is budget and maximizing value. I cannot imagine the Jays have more than $30 mil max this winter (after covering guys already here who aren't free agents) to spend and that would have to cover Rasmus, Cabrera, Janssen as well as other being brought in. What is the best use for that money is the challenge.

My gut says to not blow it on pitching with the number of kids coming, and only to resign Janssen if he is cheap ($5 mil or less). Sign one of Cabrera or Rasmus (Cabrera ideally) with Gose/Pillar/etc taking over CF. With Francisco turning back into a pumpkin Lawrie should be back full time at 3B with 2B being a mix and match of Valencia/Goins/Kawasaki/Tolleson/Izturis (he is signed for next year at $3 mil). Find a home this winter for either Francisco or Lind (other is LH DH), deal with assorted 'meh' at 2B and ideally replace with a solid option (be it moving Reyes to 2B and getting a top SS or getting a top 2B). Build more depth and keep hunting for gems in the rough.

Paul D - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#292232) #

So who closes next year? My assumption is that the Jays will spend some of that $30 million on a closer. I know that many of us figure you fill that from within or for cheap, but I don't think that people inside baseball think like that - even AA. Even though it backfired pretty spectaculary, even the As got a closer last winter.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#292234) #

Well, it could be a kid (such as Sanchez), it could be Loup or Cecil (both have 4 saves) or McGowan. Heck, it could even be Santos whose option won't be picked up but the Jays will take to arbitration I suspect or Drabek if he pulls off a miracle comeback as a closer.

Any of those options have reasonable odds of working out. To figure out a bit deeper...

Cecil: 4 saves, 2 blown, 18 holds = 24 chances, 22 converted = 92% success which is great.
Loup: 4 saves, 3 blown, 13 holds = 20 chances, 17 converted = 85% success
Janssen: 19 saves, 3 blown, 0 holds = 22 chances, 19 converted = 86% success

All 3 have done a very good job. Santos was 5-3 for a 63% success rate which is very poor. Sanchez has 3 holds, no saves or blown.

Now, holds are not the same as a save - they can be very poor games but you get an out and leave bases loaded and get one. So lets look a bit closer...
Cecil:
Holds of 1 or more IP: 10 times - these could be viewed as 'good as' saves
Holds of <1 IP: 8 times - could be good, could be a 'saw one or two LH hitter' situation
One of those short holds was a loss, thus one of those 'cheap holds' (someone came in and allowed his runner to score). Of the other 7 short ones 4 ended an inning thus could be viewed as similar to a save. Leaving 3 more that were like a LOOGY appearance (see a batter or 3, don't finish the inning).

So for Cecil we get 4 saves, 10 'strong' holds, 4 'good' holds (ended an inning but threw less than an inning), 3 weak holds (didn't lose the game, but didn't finish an inning) and 1 very weak hold (got the loss) to go with 2 blown saves. So an adjusted score might be 18 'saves plus equal to save', 3 we don't count (was relieved, didn't lose lead but didn't complete an inning for whatever reason), 1 I'd say is like a blown save (got a loss) and 2 actual blown. So his score could be viewed as 18-3 instead of 4-2 or 22-2 which gives a situation very similar to Janssen (19-3).

Not going to do that for Loup right now. Still, interesting eh? Cecil has been far better than Janssen in the K and HR departments, but a lot worse in the walk area resulting in a similar save/blown save when you factor in hold types. I could easily see him taking over the closing role for 2015/16 (then a free agent).

I think resource allocation will be a big deal for AA this winter. Who do you commit to long term, who do you resign, who do you let go, what do you do about the budget and about filling the holes and which are short term and which are long term holes. I doubt he'll blow much on the pen or rotation this winter as we have tons of kids pushing hard now. Most of the pen will be here for 2015 unless traded (McGowan/Cecil/Loup/Redmond) and are cheap. Janssen might not be too expensive as he has a low K total (5.1 per 9 innings) and would be nice to keep. Then just 2 slots left for kids/rehab projects/whatever (Rasmussen, Jenkins, Delabar, Santos, Drabek and who knows who else). Yeah, I have trouble seeing AA spending more than $5 mil on Janssen.

The rotation has tons of options, even if they trade someone from it (Buerhle, Dickey, Hutchison, Stroman, Happ are locks right now but Sanchez, Norris, Nolin, and Graveman will fight hard to earn a slot in spring).

The lineup has some rocks (guys who are there no matter what) in Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Navarro, Reyes, Lind with holes in CF/LF/2B but internal options for one of the OF slots and a stack of 'meh' for 2B.

My gut says AA makes tough choices once he knows where Rasmus and Cabrera are going. That will determine if they need a new OF or two or not. Then comes the hunt for a long term solid 2B and perhaps more catching depth or infield depth or who knows. I suspect a more solid OF will be added regardless to be the #4/platoon mate somewhere. Reimold might be that, Valencia might be a solution at 2B (doubt it as he has too much trouble vs RHP), and a lot more 'maybes'.

Well, at least it is more fun that wondering if a kid in A ball might help next time the Jays are decent...

uglyone - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#292235) #

Mike - Reyes is playing at a 4-4.5war pace, by both b/r and fangraphs, which is very good, not just above average.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#292236) #

BBRef has the Blue Jays committed to $95 million plus arb costs for 2015 so far. The outfield candidates aside from free agents are Bautista, Gose, Pillar, Reimold, Pompey. The infield candidates are Lawrie, Reyes, Izturis, Encarnacion, Valencia and possibly Francisco. Navarro is back. Committed money so far on the rotation would be Stroman, Dickey, Buehrle, and Hutchison. Committed money for the bullpen would be Sanchez, Jenkins, Cecil, Loup, Redmond, and possibly Delabar.

The club does not really need to bring any of the free agents back. It has some choices, and it probably is desirable to have one or two back. Here's a question: who would be more valuable to the 2015 Blue Jays, Melky Cabrera or J.J. Hardy?

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#292237) #

uglyone, you're normalizing to too small a base for defensive purposes. Reyes has produced 2.9, 2.3 and 3.0 WAR (so far in 2014 according to BBRef). That's precisely an above-average player. According to fangraphs,he's at 4.0, 2.1 and 2.8. Above-average is a pretty fair description there too- 2 is average, 5 is an All-Star, 7-8 is an MVP candidate.

If you go back further, Reyes' totals are in order 0.7, 2.5, 5.8, 4.0, 2.1 and 2.8. Injuries are an important part of who he is and who he is likely to be. That is probably at least as true for him as it is for Lawrie. In the result, he's a 3 WAR player, and frankly an irritating one.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#292238) #

If we let our FA go, and refuse to use any of the options other than Lind, we get this roster next year:

SS Reyes
2B Lawrie
RF Bautista
1B Encarnacion
DH Lind
LF Reimold
3B Francisco
C Navarro
CF Gose

UT Valencia (Burns)
OF Pillar (Pompey)
IF Izturis (Goins)
C Thole (Jimenez)

SP Dickey
SP Buehrle
SP Stroman
SP Hutch
SP Nolin
(SP Sanchez/Norris)

RP Cecil
RP Loup
RP Redmond
RP Delabar
RP Rasmussen
RP Jenkins
RP Graveman
(RP Sanchez/Norris)

Which costs about $120m.

With apparently anywhere from $10-25m available to add to that.

One thing to remember is that we can backload any multi year deal to lower the 2015 cost, as reyes is the only contract on the books beyond next year.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#292239) #

Don't think thay's an accurate description, mike.

Injuries are a concern for Reyes but other than that he's been consistently very good, not just above average.

Fangraphs

2014 (31): 107gms, 2.8war, 4.2war/162
2013 (30): 93gms, 2.1war, 3.7war/162
2012 (29): 160gms, 4.0war, 4.0war/162
2011 (28): 126gms, 5.8war, 7.5war/162
2010 (27): 133gms, 2.5war, 3.1war/162

Last 2yrs: 200gms, 4.9war, 4.0war/162
Last 3yrs: 360gms, 8.9war, 4.0war/162
Last 5yrs: 619gms, 17.2war, 4.5war/162

B/R

2014 (31): 107gms, 3.0war, 4.5war/162
2013 (30): 93gms, 2.3war, 4.0war/162
2012 (29): 160gms, 2.9war, 2.9war/162
2011 (28): 126gms, 4.7war, 6.0war/162
2010 (27): 133gms, 2.3war, 2.8war/162

Last 2yrs: 200gms, 5.3war, 4.3war/162
Last 3yrs: 360gms, 8.2war, 3.7war/162
Last 5yrs: 619gms, 15.2war, 4.0war/162

IMO it's most accurate to call him a 4ish win player, with some health issues that may or may not be an issue going forward.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#292240) #

And remember, even though he missed 3 weeks this year, both systems still project him to finish right around 4war this year.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#292241) #

I think trading Buehrle would be smart. He makes way too much money, but with his rep and the season he is coming off, I could see a team taking him for a year. I saw this suggested on another forum, but Buehrle for Alex Guerrero from the Dodgers makes some sense. The Dodgers don't view him as a SS and don't need him at 2B, so there might be a fit there. If the Jays could get him and put him at 2B, there is a chance he could hit well enough to justify what would likely be a poor middle infield defense with him and Reyes.

I'd also consider trading Hutchison. I think it would be wise to sell high on him as I think this season will have done some harm to his arm due to how poorly they have managed his innings. You can already see him compensated in his delivery, and if they keep running him out there, I'd be concerned about his long term lasting power. It would be a risk but one I would take if the return warranted it.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#292242) #

When you have guys like Reyes and Lawrie who get hurt a lot it is important to have decent 0-1 WAR backups available. Kawasaki, Goins, and now Valencia all seem to fit that mold - cheap, not 'must play' guys who are decent enough to fill in and not drag the team down. Francisco really helped for awhile early in the year but has crashed and burned this month (081/128/135 so far in 39 PA) while Tolleson has been worse (071/133/071 in 15 PA).

For 2015 a full-time 2B would be a major asset as that would free up Kawasaki/Goins/Valencia for 3B/SS/2B backup duties as needed. That has to be the #1 priority for AA from now until it is covered. The rotation should take care of itself with all the kids in AAA and the majors. The pen has lots of candidates. 1B/DH/SS/RF/CA/3B are set with LF/CF the only other area of concern but a decent in-house option for CF in Gose/Pillar/Pompey and a potential answer in LF with Reimold (116 OPS+ so far, someone many thought could be a 120 OPS+ guy at one time) although I'd prefer him as a RH DH/backup OF. More OF depth would be nice too but hopefully the kids and Reimold can cover that role.

The money should be enough to cover that stuff, if you can trust the kid pitchers (always a risk). That is where I think the Jays need to plan. Keep guys like Kawasaki/Tolleson/Goins around, get more to store in AAA if you can and get an OF candidate or two like them who you can shuffle between Buffalo and here as well.

Paul D - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#292243) #

Although it creates another hole, I'd call the Yankees and see if they have any interest in Reyes.

With all that said, I'm going to forgot about any of this until at least mid-September. This year's Jays aren't dead in the water yet.

smcs - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#292244) #

Although it creates another hole, I'd call the Yankees and see if they have any interest in Reyes.

Reyes for A-Rod?

Gerry - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#292245) #

I would trade Dickey, in part to get rid of Thole. Dickey to an NL team could net a good return. Buehrle will not bring back much in a trade given his high salary.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#292246) #

There is the one big issue with Dickey that is hard to factor in fully. If you have a knuckleball pitcher you need to keep a knuckleball catcher on the roster and rarely can those guys hit worth a darn.

Thole in 2014 has been a -0.5 WAR player (bWAR). In 2013 he was -0.6 and the alternate in 2013 was Blanco who was a -0.3. So the net over 2 years is a -1.1 for Thole or -1.4 for knuckleball catchers, without factoring in that the Jays have kept Nickeas in AAA just in case (hurting that team). Dickey over that stretch has been a 3.8 WAR guy. If you assume the Jays would've had a replacement level backup catcher if Dickey wasn't here then you knock that down to a 2.4 net over 2 years or a 1.2 WAR per year value from having Dickey and his personal catchers. That makes him a lot harder to see value from, even at 'just' $12 mil a year.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#292247) #

one caveat I'd give to Thole is that defensive ratings when your only job is to catch a knuckleballer are probably very unfair.

eudaimon - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#292248) #

I think Thole's better than WAR makes him out to be. His hitting is passable for a backup catcher and if he qualified his .342 OBP would be 4th in the league among catchers. His defensive rankings also take a hit because he only catches Dickey as someone else mentioned. I don't think we have an issue with our backup catcher.

Also a bit of a stretch to complain about having to keep Nickeas. It's not like good offensive catchers you can sign for cheap to rot in AAA grow on trees. You have to have someone in AAA in case one of the main catchers goes down, might as well be a guy with a great defensive rep. Those guys tend to be good players-coaches as well.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#292249) #

The Jays have a starter and DH that require four total roster spots. That's too much. I don't mind trading Dickey and Lind. If they re-sign Melky, then put Reimold at DH, at least he won't need to be platooned and he'll hit reasonably well for his low cost.

I'd love to move Dickey and Buehrle and then sign McCarthy and Liriano.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#292250) #

There are lots of ways to upgrade the club. Personally, I'd like to see the club upgrade defensively if that were possible. Players like Russell Martin, J.J. Hardy and Pompey/Gose/Pillar could be part of that.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#292251) #

Planning to sign FA SP's is a risky proposition. The RC isn't Petco and the Jays won't in all probability be fielding an elite defense- it's become obvious pitcher's prefer to sign elsewhere if they have any choice. I'll also assume the Jays aren't going to pay well above market rate to attract FA's either.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#292252) #

I think that explains why AA worked so hard to develop pitchers. If you develop them then you get 6-7 years of use out of them before hitting the 'yikes' dollar point. Traditionally pitchers also have a lot of value in the trade market as there is always demand for them (every team needs 5 for the rotation plus at least 3 or 4 solid ones in the pen and few ever have all slots full of quality).

Now the challenge is to build up a few hitters. Ideally drafting from SS/CF/CA as those positions can shift to other spots as needs change while 1B/DH cannot. It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Ron - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#292253) #

If the Jays are going to look at adding a SS over the winter, they should call the Cubs. The Cubs have 3 starting SS's in Castro, Baez, and Russell. You rarely see top prospect/rookie challenge trades, but a Norris for Baez trade would be fun to talk about.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#292255) #

The Cubs might consider Baez for Norris and Sanchez.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#292256) #

If the Cubs had to move a SS, it would probably be Castro since he's locked up for five more years and "big" dollars. If they feel Baez and/or Russell could take over for the minimum, maybe they'd be willing to move Castro. He has five years and a team option left (so it fits Beeston's quota) and he's having a good year offensively and defensively. I wonder what the Cubs would want.

soupman - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#292257) #

i think the jays have enough 3-true outcome players as it is. pass on baez.

soupman - Tuesday, August 19 2014 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#292259) #

do you think they told juan fran that neon colours are for run producers, or did he figure that out himself?

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