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Game Threads To Seattle without a Pen
The Jays are off to Seattle tonight for 3 with a very, very tired bullpen while fighting for their playoff lives.  Seattle is tied with the Jays 1 1/2 back of KC for the last wild card slot.
Drew Hutchison vs Felix Hernandez tonight, J.A. Happ vs Chris Young on Tuesday, and R.A. Dickey, vs Hisashi Iwakuma on Wednesday before the Jays get Thursday off.  All RHP vs the Jays.


Brad Mills has been called back up, Ryan Goins sent back down.  Not unreasonable, as the need is for someone who can go 3+ innings if needed and could be sent back down immediately after the first game if another guy is needed.  Goins had a hot July, hitting 324/324/432 but cooled right off in August over 27 PA hitting 120/120/120 (3 singles, no walks) so the choice is him or Kawasaki really.

The B-R Preview for game 1 shows Seattle has 5 rested guys and 3 tired ones, while the Jays pen is drained outside of Mills.  Only Loup was lightly used last night and that was his 3rd straight game.  With 25+ pitches each for Cecil, Jenkins, McGowan, Redmond and Sanchez none will be available Monday and ideally would have Tuesday off too (plus Wednesday for Redmond & Jenkins who both cracked 50 pitches).   Janssen could be used in an emergency but throwing in 4 of the past 5 days you'd hope he gets tonight off too.  So c'mon Hutch - if ever the Jays needed a complete game this is the time.
Posted by John Northey on Monday, August 11 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT.
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TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#291830) #
It's great that they're trying to reward Jenkins after such a good performance, but this could really backfire. It's crazy to go into an important game with one reliever available.
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Alex Obal - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#291831) #
Just looking at the chart, I would've guessed that the only pitchers off-limits today would be Sanchez, Jenkins, and possibly Loup. I wouldn't hesitate to use Redmond if necessary, even though he threw 50 yesterday (after a week of rest).
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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#291832) #
Any odds on who's the first Reliever called in? I suspect Loup in first.
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Mike Green - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#291833) #
I am sure that they could use Cecil for one batter- maybe Kyle Seager, and McGowan maybe for a couple.  I don't know why they didn't send Jenkins down and bring up Delabar or Santos or somebody who could give them an inning. 
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Mike Green - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#291834) #
Kevin Pillar just hit his 9th homer and 6th since the All-Star break (26 games).  He is 25 years old, and it may be that the medium range power potential that I thought he had is finally arriving. 
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Mike Green - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#291835) #
Justin Verlander got knocked out after an inning today.  The Tigers pen is, um, in trouble. 
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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#291836) #
Sometime tonight those pitchers, who think they can give a batter or more, will let Gibbons know.

Neither Delabar or Santos are deemed to be ready/available, or, I suspect they would be up.
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hypobole - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#291837) #
Will we see Pillar before September?

Actually, will we see Eddie or Lind before September? Lind hasn't had a rehsb game yet due to his bi-annual back issue. Eddie had 1 PA in Dunedin tonight, struck out and was replaced. Yeesh.
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Mike Green - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#291838) #
Good news, hypobole.  Encarnacion was removed from the game due to poor grounds conditions after a rain delay and is on his way to Buffalo.  He'll be there for tomorrow's game; the weather forecast there is for....thunderstorms.
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Gerry - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#291841) #
Lind is allegedly en route to Seattle and will be active for tomorrows game.
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James W - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#291842) #
The Tigers recalled 3 pitchers today, and they've all pitched tonight. They've probably got to make at least one more move tomorrow now.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#291844) #
The slide could start for Detroit real quick despite their Starting Pitching.
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TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#291845) #
This is really poor planning. They keep Jenkins, who'll be useless for the whole series, and send down Goins on the very day they actually need him to fill in for Reyes at short. Instead, in addition to the Jenkins taking up space on the roster, we have to start Valencia against Felix Hernandez.
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TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#291846) #
Oh, Tolleson's in the game also. So Goins could've been used instead of either Valencia or Tolleson. Having both those guys in the line-up against a right-hander is not good.
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PeteMoss - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#291847) #
Pretty sure they took Santos off the 40 man, so Delabar or Rasmussen would have been the options I'd assume unless they wanted to take someone off the 40 man (or do they have room now?)
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PeteMoss - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#291848) #
Have to assume Reyes came up sore after yesterday which moved Tolleson into the line-up and Kawasaki to SS.
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TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#291849) #
I don't know if he's sore per se, but Gibbons did want to give him a rest today. Reyes apparently wanted to play. My issue isn't with resting Reyes, it's with not thinking it through before sending Goins down.
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John Northey - Monday, August 11 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#291850) #
Well, Goins only had a 554 OPS vs RHP and Valencia career has a 623.  Tolleson is just 351 career vs RHP (289 this year) so yeah, he could've been benched to let Goins play but either way you are getting a sinkhole offensively. 

I wonder if part of the goal was to show loyalty to a guy who just did a 'wow' job and avoid more clubhouse issues.  Sometimes you have to make shifts that players can accept even if logically the best move is a different one.  Jenkins just had probably his best game and without him the Jays probably lose last night, thus the marginal gain having Goins over Tolleson tonight isn't as big to the team as keeping Jenkins up as a reward for good play.  I suspect at this point Jenkins is up for the rest of the season and will have to play himself off of the 2015 team.

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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#291851) #
Any chance of Brad Mills having a future with this team just vanished.
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#291852) #
The 6th was ugly, was it because Hutchison was hurt or just ineffective. This good game/bad game routine is starting to suck. He's capable of being great and has shown it more than once. He's capable of being very good and has shown it more than once. He's capable of being good and has shown it more than once. He just can't be average or barely decent or not good. When he's not good or better, he's always BAD. That's what I don't understand.
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ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#291854) #
Hutchison himself seemed very frustrated by his performance last night. It was not an unexpected team result after a 19 inning game and then flying across the country to face King Felix. What I like most about Marcus Stroman is that after his few bad outings he has bounced back with excellent games. I would like to pay tribute to a great comedian and actor, Robin Williams. I feel sad that he is gone at a not-so-old age.
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PeteMoss - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#291855) #
He's 23 and coming off Tommy John surgery. Not really a surprise that he's inconsistent this year, particularly yesterday after a cross country trip and the pressure of knowing he had a one man bullpen behind him going against Felix Hernandez.
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John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#291861) #
The one good thing is that Gibbons did the smart thing - it was a blowout so he just left Mills in regardless rather than burning more relievers. Mills hasn't been sent back down yet, but I have to figure he will be before the game today with someone else recalled. 

Who is on the 40 man, in Buffalo, and not on the DL?  Delabar, Drabek, Nolan, Rasmussen.  I think it is too soon for Rasmussen to be called back up.  Drabek might make sense as it has been 5 days since he last pitched, and since the start of July he has thrown 14 IP 2 BB 13 SO 0 HR 2.57 ERA.  Since he took 9 days off in mid-July (so since July 19th) he has thrown 10 IP in 8 games, 0 BB 9 SO.  So if he isn't hurt (always an if with him) he is rested, seems to have found control, and might be ready to be the next Jay to go from starter to solid reliever (ala Janssen, Cecil, McGowan, and maybe Jenkins).  Nolin has been effective as a starter since getting back to AAA after a DL period (3 games, 17 IP 1.59 ERA, last game on the 8th) but the Jays might want him to keep starting for now.  Delabar pitched yesterday (16 pitches) so he might not be ideal for a callup right now plus he is more a 1 inning guy, max 2 and the Jays need a long man just in case tonight.

Of course, if Mills goes down then anyone could come up as that could free a slot on the 40 man too.

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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#291863) #
Mills was DFA'd last night. Presumably for Lind, though, not a relief pitcher.
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FisherCat - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#291867) #
Looking at the standings from purely a win total standpoint (not a games back perspective), I feel the Blue Jays need to be at 75 wins entering September.  That way they don't force themselves to have to play at the May/June level in order to get to 90 wins.  That said, it would mean going 12-4 for the balance of August which is a tall order.

Either way, at some point before the end of the season this team is going to have to rattle off a 15-5 stretch in order to make even the wild card a reality!  Doable, but getting increasingly difficult as each game passes.  :(

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uglyone - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#291868) #
Still not sure how this turned into a blowout.

Hutch looked good for the most part, but i think cano rattled him every time up (and LH hitters might be becoming an issue for hutch in general).

Key turning point was when bautista completely butchered a catchable ball into a two run triple, which was followed by the next guy just missing being out on a swinging bunt that just rolled foul and then snuck a double just inside the line the other way. Hutch deserved better i think.

And the less said about Tire Fire Mills the better.

Hard to be too upset about losing to Felix after the 19 inning game yesterday and the long flight, and being the third Cy in a row...but that's the last excuse game for them i think.

With beatable opponents coming up, lind and ee back this week, and four off days in the next couple of weeks to make sure everyone is rested and the roster is lined up perfectly.....it really is time to go on a legit run now. No more messing around.
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Chuck - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#291869) #
and LH hitters might be becoming an issue for hutch in general

Indeed. His OPS split is 798/647.

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greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#291870) #
Don't forget about Iwakuma (whom I hoped the Jays would target in the off-season). He's having another excellent season and will be a tough opponent for the Jays.

I continue to feel (intuitively, not sabermetrically) that the Jays are going to miss the playoffs this year.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#291872) #
I wasn't watching last night.  Did Hutchison have control of his slider?  When he can throw it for strikes, he usually does all right against lefties.  If not, he usually gets hit hard. 

His ERA and ERA+ both this year and over his career are pretty mediocre, but there are some caveats.  He has given up 1 unearned run in his career (almost 200 innings).  He has had so-so or worse bullpen support.  Baseball Prospectus has a statistic that attempts to take into account both FIP measures and sequencing, fair run average. Hutchison's is 4.40 for this year, which is just above league average. 

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greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#291875) #
Next year should be an interesting one for Hutchison. He'll have another year under his belt and will be one more year removed from TJ surgery. He could be quite solid as a mid-to-back rotation starter. Or he could take a step back (or sideways). Hard to say. The big leagues are tough.

I could see the Jays trading Buehrle to clear salary (assuming they can find a suitable trading partner) and going with a younger and cheaper rotation of Stroman, Dickey, Hutchison, Happ and Norris (or Sanchez). Not sure if there are any other realistic internal options for the rotation.
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Lylemcr - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#291879) #
I was at the game last night....argh....
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JB21 - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#291882) #
Same. And it actually was an amazing game until the 6th.

I'm in Houston right now, Dallas Thudsday. #beisbol
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#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#291884) #
I can't believe Dustin McGowan was actually up in the bullpen when Mills was struggling. Where Mike McCoy or Frank Menechino when you need them? I hope I never see Mills ever again. That was THE worst bullpen performance I've seen since this disaster by Kerry Lighterfluid, er, Ligtenberg in 2004.
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John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#291885) #
Agreed greenfrog that the Jays are likely to clear out one of the 3 more expensive starters - Buehrle ($19 mil), Dickey ($12 mil), or Happ ($6.7 mil).  Happ would probably get the most in trade due to the low salary, all 3 being just a one year commitment makes all of them tempting for any team.  That would make the new rotation 2 of those 3, Stroman, Hutchison and then for #5 a battle of the kids with Sanchez, Norris, and Nolan the early favorites (in that order) followed by dark horse candidate Graveman and vet Redmond (taking over the role Happ had for this year of long relief until needed in rotation).  Many others in the system also will be fighting and I suspect a backlog could be there for 2016 if things keep going well in the minors.

Hopefully the Jays can develop some hitters internally as you add a bit of offensive depth to that young rotation and things could be very good here for awhile.

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uglyone - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#291889) #
So it's official - Lind tonight (for Mills), Encarnacion on friday (for ???).
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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#291890) #
Yeah, Lind's back in the lineup and... Valencia's still starting against a righty.
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#291891) #
hey, they wanna see what he can do....as if there wasn't any other way to tell....
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Alex Obal - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#291892) #
What are Valencia's stats against pitchers who throw nothing but eye-high 84 mph fastballs and hope you'll pop up?
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James W - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#291893) #
He's never faced Chris Young before.
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John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#291894) #
Hrm...  So we have Valencia at 3B, Francisco at 1B and Bautista in RF.  Ideally it'd be Francisco at 3B, Bautista at 1B and Gose in RF.  Gose in August hasn't hit well (536 OPS) and has a 664 OPS vs RHP.  Valencia in August has hit for a 734 OPS, and has a 522 OPS vs RHP this year (636 as a Jay vs RHP).   Seems that it is marginal for Gose vs Valencia vs RHP, at least while wearing a Jays uniform in 2014.  Historically though Gose vs RHP would be a far better choice than Valencia.

I wonder if the Jays are trying to keep Francisco at 1B vs RHP, Valencia playing everyday at 3B, and Bautista in RF.  When a LHP comes on then Tolleson gets in for Kawasaki, Reimold for Lind or Francisco, while Gose sits on the bench mostly now that Lind is back.  I also wonder if Seitzer has noticed something in Valencia's approach and is adjusting it vs RHP thus wants him in there thinking it will be effective.  Hard to imagine as that is a big risk to take in a pennant race and Valencia has over 1400 PA in the majors already but one never knows.  Lets hope it is something like that and we'll see results.  Soon.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#291895) #
Encarnacion on Friday (for ???)

If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd expect it to be Gose.
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Gerry - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#291896) #
Edwin just hit a grand slam off Stevie Johnson.
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uglyone - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#291898) #
@BNHarrington: First pitch grand slam for Encarnacion. Seriously. #Bisons #Bluejays
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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#291899) #
I also wonder if Seitzer has noticed something in Valencia's approach and is adjusting it vs RHP thus wants him in there thinking it will be effective.

Yeah, I've wondered the same. This is a problem that probably afflicts all managers. Back in John Farrell's first year here he had Octavio Dotel in the bullpen, whose track record suggested he had no business facing LHB, and yet Farrell took a few months to really accept it. And I wondered then if it was because Farrell was overestimating his own genius at making adjustments with pitchers and getting results. We saw a similar thing with Adam Lind under both Farrell and Gibbons. And of course, you never know when it might work but now's not the time to find out. Let's wait till spring.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#291900) #
It could be that, or it could be the defensive issue.  There is no question that Valencia is the better defender at third base.  With Goins gone, Kawasaki is going to be your second baseman against RHP.  Personally, I am guessing that it is basically Gibbons' decision, with little input from Seitzer.  I have no evidence in support.

Travis Snider is 2-2 tonight and has his wRC+ for the season up to 114.  He may yet have a decent career.  It's funny how these things work- an injury to the MVP creates an opening and sometimes that is all it takes.

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Alex Obal - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#291901) #
What jumps out at me about Snider's season is the 45 strikeouts in 228 PA. That's a 19.9% K rate, which would put him slightly below the major-league average of 20.3%. Wonder how he's doing it.
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CeeBee - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#291902) #
In the Buffalo game as well- Kendall Graveman so far: 5IP 1H 0R 1W 2K. Strikeouts are low but you can't argue with the rest of the line.
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John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#291903) #
That low K rate for Snider is interesting.  In his career (this is his 7th ML season/partial season believe it or not) he has K'd more than 45 times in 5 of those years.  The two times he hasn't?  2008 (20 years old, only had 80 PA) and this year (26 with 226 PA before tonight).  His OPS+ is 108 which is slightly higher than his age 22 season (105 in 298 PA with Cito as the manager).  In the 3 seasons between those 2 he OPS+'ed just 76 with 179 K's in 672 PA.  Ouch. 

Nice to see that he might still become a solid ML player though. He has just 3 years 91 days of service time in the majors before 2014 so the Pirates have him for 2 more years if they want him (age 27/28 seasons).  A shame it has taken this long for him to cut those K's down.

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John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#291904) #
Great game again for Graveman.  7 IP 3 H 1 BB 2 SO 0 R - just 80 pitches, 53 for strikes.  Kid might be a keeper, ERA now just 1.42 in his 3 AAA games, 19 IP total.  Low K total will be a concern but outside of that all I see is 'wow'.
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#291905) #
Anyone remember Lauren Bacall or Robin Williams? I do, very well. They will be missed.
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uglyone - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#291906) #
this guy throws some meatballs. scared the jays are gonna try to smash everything as hard as they can.
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#291907) #
The Jays can have their troubles with Pitchers like this. Everything looks so good to hit they get impatient to hit.
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uglyone - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#291908) #
they look like they're facing a knuckleballer.
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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#291909) #
Navarro's doing a terrible job again tonight with pitch-framing. He's cost Happ a bunch of strikes already. I just checked the latest pitch-framing stats and see Navarro's now 5th from the bottom among MLB catchers (about 100 in total).
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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#291910) #
Zunino, by the way, is 3rd best in the majors this year.
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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#291911) #
Gibby, Gibby, Gibby. Hope you were watching. Valencia takes a called strike one. Fine. The he swings and misses at a pitch that bounces before it even reaches the plate. Strike two. The next pitch bounces next to home plate near the left-handed batter's box. Swing and a miss, strike three.
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electric carrot - Tuesday, August 12 2014 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#291912) #
I continue to feel (intuitively, not sabermetrically) that the Jays are going to miss the playoffs this year.

I feel the opposite. It seems to me that this year despite numerous difficulties -- some self-inflicted -- that this team pulls through and does make the playoffs.  And once you're in -- anything can happen right?


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Hodgie - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#291913) #
Hmmm, seems Rays prospect Josh Sale has managed to get himself suspended for the third time in his oh so short professional career. Judging by the organization's reaction, apparently his biggest crime is being an apparent addict as opposed to a convicted rapist.
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McNulty - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 01:04 AM EDT (#291914) #
I'll repeat what I said this weekend.....If Encarnacion is pain free, what the hell is he still doing in the minors?
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GregJP - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 04:48 AM EDT (#291915) #
I've never understood this. Hitters going out on week long rehab stints in the minors.

If you can play in a rehab game I assume you're healthy. So why not do this?

1. Meet the MLB team.
2. On day 1 in the morning have 4-6 simulated ABs against a MLB pitcher throwing between starts.
3. That afternoon repeat this process against another pitcher.
4. That evening have regular BP with the rest of the team.
5. Repeat the above process on day 2.

At that point would you rather have Edwin Encarnacion after the above preparation (assuming he's pain free) hitting for your life against a righty or Danny Valencia? Or Kawasaki or Tolleson.
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christaylor - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 06:37 AM EDT (#291916) #
Count me among those with the gut feeling that the Jays are going to miss the play-offs. My brain is happy to be amused by the ride, but the gut-check is managing my expectations.

1) Lawrie is a key part of this team and he may be done for the year.

2) 4/5 of the rotation is both too old and too young at the same time.

3) AA couldn't add an asset greater than Reimold before August and August trades / waivers happen but we're half-way through the month. What's the chance?

My head hopes for a nice September run, with everyone (including Lawrie) health and hot (see May)... but, nope. I'm still on the bandwagon, but the bumpiness of the ride is making me a little nauseated.
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Chuck - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#291917) #
I've never understood this. Hitters going out on week long rehab stints in the minors.

Watching Adam Lind react to 86 MPH fastballs as if they were 96 MPH, I was thinking just the opposite last night. Why was he back so quickly if he is not ready yet?

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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#291918) #
Or, as Sly Stone said, it's not the time, it's the timing.

How many at-bats did Lind get in his rehab stint, anyways?   According to milb.com, it was the grand sum of two at-bats on August 7, and those were before his back barked.  It's understandable that he would be rusty.  I've got to say that the Blue Jay medical/rehab team hasn't had a great year so far.  The process of assessing and treating injuries without allowing other injuries to become activated is not an easy one, but the success rate this year has not been what you would like to see. 

Encarnacion has been DHing in his rehab stint.  I don't know whether either Lind or Encarnacion will be at their best defensively at first base any time soon, and neither of them is a Gold Glove candidate at the best of times.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#291919) #
I checked on Danny Valencia's record vs. Iwakuma.  It was a very small sample, but what you would expect- 0-3 with 2 strikeouts.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#291920) #
What jumps out at me about Snider's season is the 45 strikeouts in 228 PA. That's a 19.9% K rate, which would put him slightly below the major-league average of 20.3%. Wonder how he's doing it.

It might seem trite, but fangraphs data suggests that he's doing it the old-fashioned way...swinging at many fewer pitches outside the zone and making more contact on pitches inside the zone.  Whether that results from some successful vision procedure, or just experience, or a change in his batting stroke, or sample-size issues, I have no idea.  It is noteworthy that his IsoP and HR/FB rates are better than his career norms, so he has gained better control of the plate without sacrificing power. He has only had 10% of his PAs against LHP this year, instead of a career 15%.  He actually has killed lefties in his 24 PAs this year, and has struck out at the same rate as against righties.
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Chuck - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#291921) #
I don't know whether either Lind or Encarnacion will be at their best defensively at first base any time soon

The team is in the unenviable position of having to play one of these guys in the field (against RHP) even if it would prefer to DH them both. The upside, presumably, will be that Francisco and Valencia will now platoon at 3B (as will Lind/Reimold at DH and Kawsaki/Tolleson at 2B). Unless Gibbons has not completed his assessment of Valencia yet. I know that's a highly scientific process that requires another few hundred data points.

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TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#291922) #
I've got to say that the Blue Jay medical/rehab team hasn't had a great year so far.

How could you possibly know?
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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#291923) #
Obviously, one does not know.  All you can do is note a series of unfortunate events- the Reyes hamstring episode at the start of the year, the Lind foot injury diagnosis, the Lawrie oblique activation essentially while rehabbing the finger and the Lind low back activation while rehabbing the foot.  Maybe all of these results are just bad luck or inevitable, but somehow I don't think so. 
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85bluejay - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#291924) #
Of course, if Lind and/or Encarnacion then go 1/20 & leave a bunch of baserunners, then the other half of the fanbase will be criticizing the FO for rushing them back without proper rehab.

This obsession with Kevin Pillar is amusing - it's not like he was killing it when he had his chances, but I guess when the team is struggling, the grass is always greener on the other side.

With probably the weakest pitching staff of the contenders, the jays will probably benefit the most from the expanded rosters in Sept.

I'm enjoying the ride & not going to get too worked up until the jays are out or the last 2 weeks - it's really wide open, injuries will probably be the decisive factor, only Oakland & LA Angels seem secure
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ogator - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#291925) #
It is starting to become time to look at what is best for the team going forward. One way of interpreting the organization's lack of moves at the deadline is to conclude that the front office does not put much weight in the likely success of the team for this year. Why give up prospects for current success when that success is likely to be limited at best? ESPN in their standings window, shows the team's probability of making the playoffs at 16.5%. The team has an abundance of players who are DH-like today but are even less likely to be effective defensively going forward. Lind, Encarnacion, Melky, Reimold and even Bautista are not likely to become excellent defenders and in Reimold, one has a slow, very weak defensively, injury-prone right handed bat, who, at this point cannot be seen as a Major League regular.

In Pillar, the Jays have a prospect who has not had much success at the Major League level so far. BUT, he has speed, power and defense and could grow into a Major League regular at best and could easily be seen as a part of a trade, at worst. It is hard to see teams coveting Reimold in a trade, unless they are short of right handed DHs. Once it becomes obvious that the Jays are out of the wild card, it makes little sense to play Reimold instead of Pillar who can provide rest for any of the outfielders and would likely provide more of a bat option than Gose. If Pillar succeeds, you may have a regular outfielder. If Reimold succeeds, you may have a right handed DH...until his next injury.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#291926) #
Pillar will get his chances, maybe not this year but certainly next spring, but to throw in the towel at this stage is sheer madness - and teams that made big moves at the deadline are having decidedly mixed result so far.
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#291927) #
At the moment, it appears the team has settled on Anthony Gose as the 4th outfielder. That doesn't leave much room for Pillar on the roster, particularly with platoons already operating at 3b & 2b.

But next year, if Gose takes over as the primary centre fielder and Rasmus departs, Pillar could be 4th outfielder, spelling Gose against LHP and filling in where necessary.

Until Dalton Pompey demands a spot, anyway.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#291928) #
Or Pillar could be an everyday LF/CF with Cabrera perhaps moving to a DH/LF role in 2015.  Budgets and contract demands will obviously be important in how that shakes out, but I'd still rather be thinking/hoping/wishing (didn't Buddy Holly do a song something like that?) about the 2014 Blue Jays. 
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John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#291929) #
Right now the Jays are the #7 team in the AL which puts them 2 back of Detroit/Seattle for that last playoff slot and 6 1/2 back of Baltimore for the AL East title.  This despite after 121 games missing Encarnacion for 33, Lawrie for 51, Reyes for 18, Rasmus for 38, and Lind for 59 games.  Some of those were rest days but the bulk was DL days.  That covers 5 key regulars for at least a DL stint and 4 for the equivalent of 2 DL stints.  That's a lot of time to cover with scrubs and backups.  This is a very good team and if everyone can come back should make another charge.

In the rotation Morrow and McGowan flopped and Rogers, who was viewed as a #6/7 guy, is now a Yankee after being let go on waivers so even there issues have existed.  The Jays got lucky with Stroman being ready and Hutchison doing reasonably well (87 ERA+ in 24 games, 3.91 FIP which is better than the other rotation members outside of Stroman).  The pen is full of guys the Jays saw as 'starters of the future' in McGowan, Janssen, Cecil, Redmond, Jenkins, and Sanchez (likely a future starter again).  Loup is the only pure reliever (5 starts in the minors and that is it) which is more a 'interesting' than anything else.

I don't see Pillar as a solution, just a useful piece for 2015 and beyond (4th OF type).  Reimold should be a good mix with Lind to make for a potent DH combo.  The outfield is the big question mark for 2015 and if the Jays fall out of it then regular time for Gose/Pillar would make a lot of sense but I see them as a platoon in CF for 2015 with Rasmus going elsewhere and Cabrera resigning by taking the qualifying offer (other clubs needing more proof before signing him to a mega bucks deal).    Would not be shocked if AA does sign Cabrera to a EE/Bautista type deal but I suspect Cabrera needs to see if the market is there for him first.

This winter will be a test for AA in a new way.  He now has a playoff contending team.  The Yankees & Red Sox are likely not 95+ teams next year.  So it is still a good time to attack but how?  Some claim the Jays could have as much as $30 mil available (not factoring in resigning Cabrera or Rasmus or Janssen), others fear it is $0 and space needs clearing to just resign any of them.  Finding a home for Buehrle would free up $19 mil and we have the kids to take over but that puts a lot of faith in Stroman/Hutchison/Happ/Dickey.  Finding a new home for Reyes would save a ton ($22 mil a year going forward) but there isn't a clear replacement unless you want to go with Goins and no offense.  For adding, holes are LF/CF (both free agents) with just Gose/Pillar and Reimold as potential replacements, 2B unless Lawrie moves there full-time, and potentially closer (if no Janssen).  It'll be very interesting indeed.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#291930) #
Have a look at Encarnacion's grand slam last night. What a limp wing during the home run trot! They need to send an elite rehab unit to Buffalo, stat...
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TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#291931) #
All you can do is note a series of unfortunate events...

Well, there's also all the little things that never turned into big things -- these are the ones we forget about or never heard about in the first place. Also, citing four events over the course of a season sounds like a sample size issue to me. Mike, weren't you one of the ones always citing Tampa's great record on pitching injuries and what it said about their approach to training and biomechanics, etc.? And how the Blue Jays were failing in comparison? There's been absolutely no mention around here of that once-common topic ever since Tampa had their early season pitching injuries, and with Toronto pitchers being relatively healthy this year. It's easy to look at a few cases and make narratives and come to conclusions, but we really don't have a clue.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#291932) #
FWIW, I didn't say that the rehab/medical team was terrible or anything like that.  Merely that they hadn't had a great year.  I think there's enough evidence for that, but it is certainly a matter of opinion.  It's a lot like evaluating a manager though- the most important thing that a manager does (or not) is get the most out of his players.  And we really don't know much about that.  We do see little things, from which we make inferences (warranted or not) about how the manager is doing generally.  Like the usage of Danny Valencia...
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Chuck - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#291933) #
What a limp wing during the home run trot!

No Buffalo Wing that.

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dan gordon - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#291934) #
I don't know what exactly Pillar did/said to earn his last trip to AAA, but I think it's high time they brought him back up. He's absolutely dominating lately at Buffalo, hitting over .400 in his last 10 games, up to .329 on the season. Closing in on 30 SB's with some power surfacing as well. Would really like to see him platoon with Rasmus in CF, and I think, given the Jays vulnerability to LHP, he would be more important than Gose on the roster at this point.

I sure hope we don't continue seeing Valencia vs righties once Lind and Encarnacion are back, but I fear that we will. I don't think Gibbons wants to see Francisco at 3B, leaving Valencia as the guy until/if Lawrie gets back.
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TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#291935) #
Like the usage of Danny Valencia...

Yeah, but this is a whole other thing. This one takes place before our eyes with reams of data available to us. That's a far cry from the team's medicals or indeed, as you mention, the work of the manager in motivating players, etc.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#291937) #
Would really like to see him platoon with Rasmus in CF, and I think, given the Jays vulnerability to LHP, he would be more important than Gose on the roster at this point.

I don't know about that.  With Bautista, Encarnacion, Valencia, Reimold, Navarro and Tolleson in the lineup, I don't see the club as particularly vulnerable to LHPs.  Whether Pillar vs. LHP in CF is worth more than Gose's use as a 4th OF and pinch-runner is an interesting question.  I imagine that Gibbons is aiming for harmony at this point, and putting Rasmus into a platoon would probably not be good for that.
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uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#291938) #
This is the kind of loss we can't afford. Very winnable game lost by sloppy D and lazy at bats. They gotta wake up quick.
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uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#291939) #
And what's with everyone sharing their "gut feelings"?

What does that even mean? What are we supposed to glean from your (by definition) irrational guess at what is going to happen?

Isn't that tantamount to deciding to post "hey guys, fyi, i'm an optimist/pessimist, in case you were interested"?

Jays are in a tight interesting playoff race with a quarter of the season left to play. They seem to have a chance to make this their healthiest quarter of the season, too. Maybe they make it maybe they don't. Enjoy it.
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John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#291942) #
Agreed uglyone - this is the first real pennant race since 2000.

August 13th in Jays history...
2000: 5 1/2 out of first (3rd place), 3 games out of the wild card (if a 2nd existed they'd have been 1 1/2 out). (22-20 after)
1999: 8 out of first (3rd place), 1/2 a game out of the wild card (19-25 after that)
2005: 8 1/2 out of first (3rd), 7 out of the wild card (20-26 after)
2006: 7 out of first (3rd), 6 out of the wild card (24-20 after)

That it for years where I feel the Jays were remotely close to being in contention.  2005/6 are pushing it.

In 1985-1993 the Jays were almost always deep in it at this point.  For non-playoff years you get them 2 out in 1990, 9 1/2 in '88 (27-17 to finish barely out of it), 1987 was leading AL East, 1986 was 7 1/2 out.

So this year is the closest at this point of the season the Jays have been since 1993, 6 1/2 out of first and just 2 out of the playoffs.  Of course, without the 2nd wild card it would be depressing right now (6 1/2 out of a playoff slot) but the rules did change.  If they hadn't the AL Central would be the only battle worth watching now.
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John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#291943) #
Just read the following on MLBTradeRumors...
  • The Blue Jays announced yesterday that righty Neil Wagner will undergo Tommy John surgery (Wagner just got 10 innings in the majors this year)
  • The Blue Jays have claimed lefty Colt Hynes off waivers from the Dodgers (22 IP in majors in 2013, 9.00 ERA)  In his brief ML time (84 PA against) he allowed just a 602 OPS to LH and 1.260 OPS to RH. 
    Lifetime in the minors he has 7.2 K/9 vs 2.1 BB/9 primarily in relief (344 games in relief, 21 as a starter all in 2012).  Could be useful in Buffalo and might be a decent LOOGY in September but I figure he is just minor league filler for now.
  • Rusney Castillo (Cuban who is a free agent, 2B/CF with speed - 70 grade) and viewed as a guy who could make a difference right now in the pennant race.  The Yankees are hot and heavy on him for 2B it seems, while 28 teams (including the Jays) have attended his workouts and he is doing private workouts for many teams (Jays aren't listed but they don't know all the teams he has done that for).  He is expected to sign early next week.  Given his positions are areas the Jays could use help in (2B especially, but CF and/or LF for 2015) they'd be nuts not to look at going all-in on him.  No salary cap considerations btw.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#291945) #
Castillo seems to be primarily a centerfielder.  Trying to convert a centerfielder to second base at 27 isn't the easiest thing to do.  It's a little easier to do the opposite, taking a young middle infielder with speed and making him a centerfielder (as the Reds did with Billy Hamilton).  The Blue Jays do have Gose and Pillar and Pompey in the high minors, so it would be strange to sign him with the expectation of him continuing in centerfield, and it's questionable whether he would hit enough to be valuable as a corner (he apparently doesn't have great plate discipline)
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uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#291947) #
Baseball gods seem to be trying to even the odds a bit for us. Machado just went on the DL, and Hardy still can't grip a bat and may have to join him.

Aside from them being better bats than their replacements, those two also happen to be by far the biggest part of why the Os are a good defensive team.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#291948) #
I don't see any reason why expressing "gut feelings" should be taboo on the site. After having spent many hours watching the Jays and other teams, sometimes you just get an intuitive sense of its overall strength and playoff chances. It doesn't mean that it's the last word or that it's not subject to reassessment or an evidence-based challenge.

Unless you're nothing more than a stats-spewing robot, chances are you use your "gut sense" all the time when assessing situations in everyday life. Why check your gut at the door in the baseball context. In fact, AA has said that the times when his moves as a GM haven't panned out have been when he didn't follow his gut. That doesn't make him an optimist or a pessimist (depending on his gut feeling that day), it just makes him human.
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John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#291949) #
The more I read on Castillo the more I see a guy likely to be an Otis Nixon or Rajai Davis type - high speed but will have trouble hitting enough to be a regular.  He seems to have been doing a mix and match, time at 2B/3B as well as CF but CF the primary position.  I'd guess 'pie in the sky' is a Tim Raines type, but far more likely is Rajai Davis or any number of other high speed/low offense guys.  A 3 year $15 mil deal would be worth it for that due to the potential for more, but a 5 year $40+ mil deal would be too risky unless the Jay scouts see a lot more potential (ie: a 350+ OBP plus a 400 Slg to go with 30-40 SB a year). 
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Chuck - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#291950) #
chances are you use your "gut sense" all the time

And statisticians would argue that "gut feelings" are predicated on a subconscious application of probability theory anyway, even if sometimes poorly executed.

When your gut tells you if you can cross the street in traffic, you are subconsciously calculating the probability of oncoming cars hitting you given their perceived speed and your expected speed and dexterity. If you are not burdened with an adolescent's not-yet-fully developed prefrontal cortex, your chances are usually pretty good.

And while "gut feelings" on certain matters can too often run the risk of being too heavily influenced by a core optimistic or pessimistic nature, there is still math, even if shaky, at the root. And sometimes the stew of variables that go into that math can't even be fully articulated. When you are in a situation and your gut tells you that something doesn't seem quite right, that's likely your subconscious doing pattern recognition and finding gaps.

All of this is to say that gut feelings that people might have regarding the fate of the Jays for the balance of the season do have a mathematical basis (again, even if that math is wobbly). Patterns of performance are being observed and compared to previously observed patterns and conclusions are being drawn.

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uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#291951) #
I have a gut feeling the jays win the world series this year and next.
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Chuck - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#291952) #
Stay out of traffic.
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John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#291953) #
The good news is that most of the pen should be available tonight as just Loup has been used the past 2 days.  If we are lucky Dickey will go out and have a complete game just to mess with us :)
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 13 2014 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#291955) #
Baltimore now hits like the Jays once did. Or at least as well the Jays did until June 7th and 8th. That was the turning point of the whole season.
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John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#291958) #
Boy the offense has died off.  4 runs in the past 3 games.  Since August started the Jays have scored...
0 runs: once (last night)
1 run: 4 times
2 runs: once
3 runs: 3 times
4 runs: once
5 runs: once
6 runs: once

So 4+ runs (real shot at winning) just 3 times.  0-2 runs (low odds) 6 times or twice as often as a real shot.  Yikes.  To make it worse, the 6 runs was the 19 inning game - basically a game of 5 runs and a 10 inning game of 1 run while one of the 3 run games was also extra innings so in the first 9 they scored just 2. 

No question what has killed the Jays in this horrid August (3-9, outscored 30-60) has been the offense.  Score 5+ and the team is 1.000 (2 for 2).  Score fewer and they are 1-9. 

The team has a 611 OPS this month, easily their worst. 
OPS 698 or better: Lawrie (1-1), Bautista (860), Cabrera (844), Reyes (832), Valencia (755) and Rasmus (698).
OPS in the 500's: Lind, Navarro, Gose, Kawasaki
400 or less: Reimold (400), Tolleson (258), Goins (240), Francisco (218), Thole (205)

Now I think we see why Valencia has been playing while others haven't.  Getting Lawrie back will allow Francisco & Kawasaki & Tolleson to be benched more often, getting EE back will let Reimold and Gose sit down.  That will be major for this club.
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#291960) #
Though even with Toronto, Valencia has extreme splits: a .560 OPS vs. RHP, 1.101 vs. LHP.
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John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#291962) #
What is scary is how many Jays he would be outhitting in August with a 560 OPS.  We really need the core back ASAP. 
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#291963) #
Girardi's use of the pen last night was interesting.  Pineda was understandably limited to 5 innings.  The Yankees were up 2-1.  He brought on Betances, apparently with the hope that he would go 2-3 innings.  Betances sailed through the 6th and 7th innings on 24 pitches, so Girardi brought him back for the 8th inning.  Flaherty worked Betances for 7 pitches before popping up and then Schoop homered on an 0-1 pitch.  On came Shawn Kelley in a 2-2 game with 1 out in the 8th, he gave up a two out single, walk and 3 run homer to the top of the Oriole lineup and that was the ballgame. 

Personally, I would prefer Adam Warren to Shawn Kelley in a high leverage situation, but I guess Girardi was avoiding the cold hand- Warren had given up a 3 run homer in his last outing on Monday. 

The Orioles had Chris Davis at third base, Flaherty at short, Schoop at second and Pearce at first.  Somehow, Tillman sailed through 7 innings with this infield, allowing only 5 hits including a 2 run homer despite striking out only 3. 

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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#291964) #
Part of the reason the Jays offense has been terrible is the run of great starters they have been facing, but yah, they really have been having a problem scoring. With Pillar hitting the cover off the ball in AAA, I think they should bring him back. He can help this offense, and this banishment for whatever it was he said or did is hurting the team.
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Gerry - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#291965) #
Looking at playoff wins required.

Division

In the division the Jays are chasing one team, the Orioles. The Jays are 63-59 and have 40 games left.

The Orioles are at 69-50 with 43 games left. If Baltimore play 500 ball the rest of the way (say 21-22) they will end with 90 wins. For the Jays to get to 90 wins they will have to go 27-13, a 109 season win pace. I think that is unlikely.

For the Jays to win the division Baltimore would have to collapse. If the Orioles go 17-26, the Jays would have to go 23-17 to tie. That is possible for the Jays but more unlikely for the Orioles.

Wild-Card

The Jays are 3 back in the wild-card race but they are chasing two teams with the Yankees essentially tied with the Jays. Right now the Tigers are a mess and the Mariners are surging but you have to assume that will not last the rest of the season. When you are involved in a race with three other teams you have to assume one of them will play well.

The Mariners are at 65-55 with 42 games left. Lets assume they go 22-20 and end with 87 wins. The Jays will have to go 24-16 to get to 87 wins. That is a 97 win season pace.


In summary the Jays will have to win 23 or 24 of their remaining games to have a shot at the playoffs.

With approx. 13 series left, if the Jays won each series 2-1, and won the extra game, they would have 27 more wins and 90 total.

If they win 12 series 2-1 and lose one 1-2, and win the extra game, they are down to 26 wins.

For the Jays to get 24 wins in the remaining series they need to win 10 series without getting swept.

These numbers are based on winning series 2-1, a typical result. For the Jays to make the playoffs they will likely have to sweep some series.

If the Jays were to get swept in another series they would have to win 24 of 37 games, or essentially every series, a tall order.

Fangraphs has the Jays with a 17% chance at the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus has the Jays at 12% chance.
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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#291967) #
He [Pillar] can help this offense

Not against RHP. Or is that what you are suggesting? If so, who on earth would he dislodge?

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greenfrog - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#291968) #
Earlier this season the Jays had something like an 80% chance of making the playoffs (maybe more), per ESPN and BP. Not sure what their record has been since their high-water mark in June, but it can't be good. Below .500, no doubt. Tough to suddenly turn on a dime and play at a 90-100 win pace.

Also, I believe the Jays' remaining schedule is one of the toughest faced by an AL contending team.

The odds of the Jays nabbing a WC spot (which, incidentally, I don't consider a "playoff spot") are low, but they still have a chance.
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#291969) #
Not against RHP. Or is that what you are suggesting? If so, who on earth would he dislodge?

Pillar has whaled against both right-handed and left-handed pitching in Buffalo.  That is obviously not the same thing as hitting in MLB.  Nonetheless, in 20-20 hindsight, it looks like the best thing the club could have done while Encarnacion and Lind were out would have been to let Cabrera DH and install Pillar as their everyday leftfielder. That would have taken a leap of faith, and I understand why the club didn't do it or probably even contemplate it. 

Now, with Encarnacion and Lind back, I don't think that it would be really helpful to call up Pillar.  I doubt that he would get enough at-bats to perform at his best.  A September cup of coffee is a different story. 


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John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#291970) #
Fangraphs has Gose at 1.2 WAR, or the 6th best performance by a hitter/fielder on the team.  Pillar was at -0.1 WAR.  If his newfound offense in AAA is for real then he would be an asset as his defense is in eyeshot of Gose when you account for playing time (Gose +7.5, Pillar +1.3 but in 1/5th the playing time).  Rasmus is at 0.4 WAR, Cabrera at 2.3 (-14.9 runs on defense though).  For 2015 I suspect we'll see Rasmus go and Gose/Pillar share CF and the Jays re-sign Cabrera (I think the PED fear will be high for other clubs still).

So basically, if Pillar was up he'd be replacing Gose and the Jays would be lucky to just break even thanks to the great D Gose has shown unless Pillar hits up here like he did down there despite how poorly he has hit in the majors to date.

Now, if you go by B-R though you get Gose at 0.4 WAR, Pillar at -0.2 which is a lot closer and wouldn't need as much of an offensive upgrade to break even.  So part of it depends on which measure you prefer. 

Still, in the end, unless you are replacing Mastroianni with Pillar I don't see how it would help and Mastro is long gone to AAA now.  In September I think Pillar would be better than Mastro but we'll see what the Jays decide and then debate it like mad again :)

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James W - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#291971) #
The squad was 14 games over on *GASP* June 6. They're 25-35 since, and that includes an 11-2 stretch just after the All-Star Break.
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grjas - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#291972) #
This team is extremely streaky and seems most resilient when their backs are against the wall. Wouldn't count them out yet. Just hope they are at least playing meaningful games to the end of September.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#291973) #
Pillar has had only 142 at bats in the majors compared to 1756 AB's in the minors. He has consistently been a .300+ hitter through the minors. The way he is hitting in AAA now, and for his whole minor league career, really, I certainly wouldn't expect that the very small sample size of mlb AB's to be the most relevant factor in trying to predict how he would perform now if he was called up. The consistent, and rapid progress he has made in the minors, and the absolute tear he's on now says to me he's ready to be a significant contributor in the majors. I think the fact that he was never a high draft pick, or highly prized prospect is clouding things, similar to the mistake the organization made with Yan Gomes. If the Jays had taken a guy in the first round a few years ago, and he had produced like Pillar has in the minors, he would be up with the Jays, and if not, I suspect people here would be screaming "free player X".
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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#291974) #
I guess there will always be two Kevin Pillar camps around here. I see a guy who will be 26 next season, who has shown little ability to draw walks or hit for power beyond some doubles. His upside to me (which is no shame) is a Reed Johnson, 4th outfielder, RH platoon type.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#291975) #
I guess I'm looking at the 25 year old who, since going 0 for 3 in a game on April 17th, has hit .356 with 9 HR's, 34 doubles, and 26 stolen bases in 341 AB's in a good pitcher's AAA league (i.e. not the PCL), and who plays good defense. I'm always going to want to give a guy a legit shot when he can do that.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#291976) #
The Reed Johnson comp sounded interesting, so I just had a look at what he did in AAA. Interestingly enough, he had a partial season in AAA at 25, and another partial season at 26. Giving him the benefit of the extra year of development for the second of those years, I added them together, and Johnson had 260 AB's with a .269 BA, 4 HR's, 12 doubles and 4 stolen bases. Compare that to what Pillar has done this year.
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#291977) #
who has shown little ability to draw walks or hit for power beyond some doubles

That's why I posted the link to the Pillar home run a couple of days ago.  The ball came off his bat low and hard and left the yard in a hurry.  It was described by the announcers as a missile and that was pretty accurate.  I have seen a number of his home runs on video but nothing ever like that before. He's hit 6 home runs in 112 at-bats since the All-Star break.  It appears that something has clicked for him, but that might just be wishful thinking.

He still doesn't take many walks, but there are several ways to get to a decent OBP and he does make enough contact and runs well enough that it is possible that he could do it at the major league level.  The crux for me is age for level.  He's hit very well at all levels but at an older age.  Sometimes a prospect like this will succeed like a Rusty Greer, but it does help a lot to be younger. 
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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#291978) #
Compare that to what Pillar has done this year.

I am using Reed Johnson as a potential MLB comp for Pillar, fully recognizing that Reed Johnson's MLB career was not a natural segue from his minor league career. Johnson greatly exceeded expectations as a major leaguer (simply by virtue of having a major league career at all). Pillar's minor league stats are much better, but I do not believe they signal more than a Reed Johnson type career.

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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#291979) #
Johnson was in his best year at 4.4 WAR player (in only 134 games).  He had most of his at-bats against RHP that year, but as you remember was hit by pitches a lot and so, even playing exceptionally well, he never played in 145 games.  Pillar is a different sort of player.  For one thing, he is obviously stronger and for a variety of reasons is more likely to hit .300 consistently against all sorts of pitching, but he's not as likely as Johnson to get on base in other ways. There are players of this type who have had late starts- Lou Piniella, Pat Tabler- but most were not very good defenders. 
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SK in NJ - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#291980) #
Should the Jays really be considering re-signing Melky at this point? They are basically an 82-85 win team right now with an aging core. Re-signing Melky is very much a Ruben Amaro type of move in an attempt to extend a window with a short shelf life. Granted, it would make more sense if the Jays get a playoff spot but that's looking less likely by the day.

Honestly, I think the Jays should be considering what they could get for Bautista and Edwin at this point, as much as it pains me to say it. Unless Rogers decides to increase payroll dramatically next season, it doesn't look like things will get any better from here.
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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#291981) #
I feel like I am playing the role of Pillar hater when that's not the case. He could well have one of those late start careers and turn into a starting calibre player. I wouldn't bet my money on it, but I'm not so arrogant to think it's not possible. I wouldn't want the Jays to head into 2015 with Pillar somehow having backed into a starting job. My prediction for 2015 is that Cabrera is re-signed, Rasmus is gone and Gose/Pillar platoon in CF.
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#291982) #
Re-signing Melky is very much a Ruben Amaro type of move in an attempt to extend a window with a short shelf life.

Cabrera should still be a good hitter for three or four years, so as long as the deal doesn't go beyond that, and especially if it's in the $13-15M range, I don't see the concern. (I also don't understand what our playoff position this year matters for whether to sign him next year.)

As things stand, Anthopoulos is looking quite prudent with the three players he's allowed to approach free agency. Janssen and especially Rasmus would've cost a lot more to lock up a year ago than they will by season's end. Only Cabrera is going to cost more and even he shouldn't be too expensive.
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#291983) #
My prediction for 2015 is that Cabrera is re-signed, Rasmus is gone and Gose/Pillar platoon in CF.

I'd guess so, too. But having just defended a Cabrera extension, let me also say that keeping Rasmus and letting Cabrera go is an intriguing option. You get the younger player, better defence, a cheaper contract, and a draft pick (assuming Melky declines). You could move Rasmus to LF and let Gose and Pillar platoon in CF.
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John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#291984) #
SK in NJ - I think you are extremely pessimistic there.  Right now the Jays have what most consider the #1 thing for future success - lots of young starting pitching. 
Majors: Stroman & Hutchison in rotation doing well (FIP's under 4 for both) both are 23, Sanchez now up to 12 1/3 ML innings (3 of 7 with over a 1 leverage, only 2 of 7 not against a tough team) and doing well
AAA: Nolin & Norris both highly rated and young (24 and 21 respectively) plus Graveman only 23 and 3 excellent starts in AAA

That type of young arm is extremely prized in MLB and the Jays have 5 blue chips (Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Nolin, Norris) plus a 6th who is doing well despite low ranking pre-season.  More blue chip pitchers are in AA/A+/A and beyond so the pipeline isn't likely to dry up anytime soon.

For offense it isn't as rosy long term, as the 25 and under crowd only includes Lawrie, Gose, Pillar in the majors at any point this year and few real hitting prospects in the higher minors.  I fully expect to see trades happen where pitchers are sent away for hitters.
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Ron - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#291985) #
If the Jays want to keep Melky, they will need to open up the vault. Melky is going to be one of the youngest FA's on the market at age 30. He's the best OF FA in the market (Cruz spends more time at DH than the OF).

Power + Young Age + MLB Teams flush with cash = Big Contract

Curtis Granderson had a terrible year in 2013 and was about to enter his age 33 season and he still signed for 4 yrs/60 million.

I predict Melky ends up signing for 5yrs/85 million.
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uglyone - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#291986) #
What a dusgraceful series.

Could be a season killer.

They better get hot and quick.
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John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#291987) #
Rasmus I think will get more than Cabrera this winter due to position, age, defense (much higher valued than in the past), and lack of PED issues.  Just a guess though.  I also think Cabrera is more likely to go for a 'home town discount' as he seems to like being in a clubhouse with Bautista and Reyes among others.  Not a big discount I'm sure, but at least would put Toronto on par with others.

I'd be inclined to go for Cabrera here due to having Gose & Pillar to take over CF and not have to deal with the ego issues that keeping Rasmus would entail. 

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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#291988) #
Right now the Jays have what most consider the #1 thing for future success - lots of young starting pitching.

The pitching looks good, but I don't know if that's still the #1 thing for future success. With the dearth of offence in baseball these days, finding good hitters is becoming a lot more difficult. The Cubs seem to know this and have been using this insight to build a great system. Anthopoulos, by contrast, has really emphasized young pitching, but that might be an outmoded way of thinking. (And in fairness, he's maybe adapting too.) Rany Jazayerli wrote a very good piece on the Cubs' thinking the other day.
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Gerry - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#291989) #
I think Melky gets a qualifying offer, pay him $15m for one season and then let him walk. As he ages he will turn into a DH and a big contract for a DH type is not what you want to do.
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#291990) #
That would be ideal, Gerry, from the Jays' point of view, but that scenario requires Cabrera to accept the one-year offer, which seems unlikely.
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#291991) #
I feel like I am playing the role of Pillar hater when that's not the case. He could well have one of those late start careers and turn into a starting calibre player. I wouldn't bet my money on it, but I'm not so arrogant to think it's not possible. I wouldn't want the Jays to head into 2015 with Pillar somehow having backed into a starting job. My prediction for 2015 is that Cabrera is re-signed, Rasmus is gone and Gose/Pillar platoon in CF.

Melky has had a very fine offensive season, but has slowed down noticeably as the season has worn on.  The metrics say that he has been essentially the same quality defensive player in 2014 as in 2013.  He'd make a good DH/4tth-5th OF if the team wants to go that way and the dollars work.
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greenfrog - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#291992) #
Melky is having a career year and has stayed healthy, but he's still only up to 2.3 fWAR. I wouldn't give him a big contract. I'm inclined to agree with Gerry: make a QO, if he accepts, the Jays get a good switch-hitter on a one-year deal (possibly a bit of an overpay from an AAV perspective), if he declines, they get a sandwich pick.

I'm sure the Jays wish they still had Yan Gomes (currently up to 3.9 fWAR) as a RH bat instead. It's not an ideal allocation of resources to pay Reyes, Buehrle and Melky $15-21m each next year, especially when Reyes and Melky are poor fielders. That's over a third of the team's payroll dedicated to three players, none of whom is a star.
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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#291993) #
Rasmus I think will get more than Cabrera this winter due to position, age, defense (much higher valued than in the past)

I certainly agree that teams are valuing defense more than ever before. But this is largely because it is still undervalued in the market place. It is an attribute that can be acquired for less than it's worth, as walks used to be back in the day.

Teams may well value Rasmus's defensive ability, but are not going to pay for his defensive WAR as if it were offensive WAR. The market place just isn't there yet (partly because it doesn't have to be and partly because there may be a lack of faith in defensive metrics).

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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#291994) #
Oh, and my prediction about Cabrera being re-signed is not necessarily an endorsement of such. A one-year deal would be best, but I agree that it isn't likely. I think Melky gets 3 years.

Hey, Kevin Barker and Buck Martinez consider Melky the team MVP.

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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#291995) #
Over Bautista?  Really? Because he has more hits and a higher batting average, perhaps.  Very retro, that.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#291996) #
Melky's defense is certainly a concern, but he hasn't slowed down as the season has gone along. Over the last 50 games, he's slashing .349/.423/.503/.925, which is better than his full season line. Basically, he started really hot, cooled off, and then has gotten really hot again.
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#291997) #
I meant that he had slowed down in the outfield as the season has carried on.  He has continued to hit unquestionably.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#291998) #
You know, the Jays could, if they want to go this route, let both Melky and Rasmus go. They could retain Lind, and DH him with Valencia in a platoon. You've got Bautista for RF, and 2 of Gose, Pillar and Reimold for LF/CF at the start of the season, presumably Gose sitting vs lefties, and hopefully joined by Pompey at some time midseason. This might enable them to spend the money on a 2B upgrade. Personally, I really like Melky and hope he's resigned, but I expect he's going to get a big contract, along the lines of the 5/75.
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John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#291999) #
If anyone offers Melky or Colby 5/$75 I say let them walk.  I wouldn't go past 3 years for either, and only go to 3 years if I felt there were no other realistic options and planned on trading Lind.

I suspect the Jays will trade pitching for hitting this winter, it is just challenging as there are multiple possibilities.  Lawrie being able to play 2B or 3B makes a lot of things possible.  The 2 OF being free agents also opens up lots of possibilities.  2B or 3B, LF and/or CF, CA isn't exactly a 'wow' slot either.  So 5 positions AA can look at improving, probably a need to fix one or two.  Do you trade Lind as part of a package to improve?  Do you trade 2 or 3 hot prospects on the mound to improve offense?  How big a risk do you take?  Tough questions.

This year has been fun, although if the Jays don't get hot soon that fun could be done soon.  This offseason should be a lot of fun too, leading to tons of speculation in the spring.  From the Yankees without Jeter but with A-Rod returning, the Rays without Price, Boston trying to rebound, Baltimore hoping to keep building on their success, the Jays trying to win it all and feeling that it is a realistic hope.
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raptorsaddict - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#292000) #
On Melky, ideally you'd get him on the one year qualifying offer, but like others I doubt he'll accept. I'd do 3/45 with a team option, but I'd balk at paying him for any term longer than that.

I'd let Rasmus walk. I'm 50/50 on whether he gets a qualifying offer, personally leaning towards no because I'm scared he'd accept or turn into next year's Kendrys Morales. Maybe I'm wrong and his value is higher, but I doubt it.

Either way, I know I'm certainly over the Colby Rasmus experience and am ready to see what the Gose/Pillar CF platoon can do. Worst case, you're getting 80% of Colby for 20% of the cost. Best case is they combine to play stellar defensively while proving their both ready for an everyday role while keeping the seat warm for Pompey. The point is, for the baseball risk vs. dollar analysis, this one is a no-brainer.

I like Reimold as the 4/5 OF, but there is just way too much injury uncertainty to depend on him for anything, but the price is right for the potential upside.

I think Buerhle has to go this off-season. Just too much salary for too little return. You get rid of him when his trade value is highest (ie. at least so high that he's not a pure salary dump), and avoid the risk of him turning into a pumpkin again and having a giant sore on your payroll.

Now with no Buerhle and Rasmus, you've almost freed up 30 million. Toss in Santos and Jansen walking and you've got even more room. And in Buerhle's case, you've opened up a spot for one of your young starters.

Lineup:

Lind at 1st
Bautista in RF/DH
Gose/Pillar platoon in center
Melky in LF/DH
Edwin 1B/DH
Navarro C/DH
Thole/Jimenez at backup C
Reyes SS
Lawrie 2B*
Valencia/Francisco platoon at 3rd/1st/DH/PH
Tolleson as RH utility
Izturis?
Reimold?
Free Agent?

*Lawrie gets moved to 2B fulltime. He may not like it, but his defense is just too damn good not to play him there given the massive hole in the lineup we have at 2B. And yes, I am basing this appraisal of his defense 100% on the eye-test. Most importantly, his bat would play much better at the position I think. Based on watching him, I've realized that he is super muscular and athletic but he's not really huge physically, like say a Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen, and I doubt he'll ever mash like them even if he does play amazing defense at third. At second, he has the chance to have a plus bat and a plus glove. Someone needs to get in his ear about being the next Alomar, not the next Rolen.

If you go with this lineup, you have the money to pay a truly elite pitcher if you want (Cole Hamels?) or spend elsewhere next year at the deadline when your even more of your farm is starting to gain value. You also get an 11 man pitching staff.

On the pitching front, Nolin/Sanchez/Norris compete for the Buerhle spot, with the others going to the pen.

Starters:
Stroman
Dickey
Hutch
Happ
Rookie 1

Pen:
McGowan
Loup
Cecil
Morrow (just too good an arm not to bet on - no such thing as a bad one year deal!)
2 of: Jenkins/Redmond/Rookie 2 or 3/Free agent/Delabar/Jansen/random reliever X

I'd rather bet on McGowan/Sanchez/Norris/Morrow over Jansen, especially if the market pays him for saves.

Toss in a blockbuster trade that sells the farm (Tulo?) and we can have a really impressive lineup.







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Gerry - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#292001) #

In case you missed it Brendan Kennedy in the Star asked agents what Melky was worth in free agency. The consensus seemed to be around 3 years $39M. His defense was mentioned as a liability.

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grjas - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#292002) #
Would be unfortunate if they take a superior third baseman with an average bat and turn him into an average second baseman with an average bat.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#292003) #
At 3/39, I'd sign Melky - hope the Jays can get him for that. I'd be very surprised to see them retain Rasmus, I don't think it makes sense to keep him with Gose, Pillar and Pompey all candidates for CF in 2015. The Lawrie to 2B idea is interesting, but with his injury history...
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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#292004) #
The consensus seemed to be around 3 years $39M.

I keep hearing that as well. Shane Victorino's contract is held up as the template.

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Chuck - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#292005) #
At 3/39, I'd sign Melky - hope the Jays can get him for that. I'd be very surprised to see them retain Rasmus

I agree. I think the team will be willing to spend money on one of these two, but not both. And I think Cabrera is the frontrunner, the argument being that they can't replace his offense where they can replace Rasmus's defense.

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SK in NJ - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#292006) #
John Northey - young pitchers are not a sure thing. Hutchison is a year removed from Tommy John Surgery, and the Jays do not seem to have any innings restrictions on him this season (he's at nearly 140 IP now). Is he a lock to remain healthy and durable? Who knows. Stroman looks good so far. Sanchez is FAR from a sure thing given his minor league history. Norris has one start in AAA. Nolin is in AAA and battled injury.

Those are mostly pie-in-the-sky scenarios. In a perfect world, the Jays could trot out a rotation of Stroman/Hutch/Norris/Sanchez/Nolin next season and they'd all be average to above average over 150-200 innings each, but that scenario is very unrealistic. Just as expecting Buehrle and Dickey to get better as they both age another year is.

The offense also has holes, and given that the core group is 30-35 years old in age, that's not a sign for any type of long-term sustainability, and there is always a chance for decline.

If Rogers bumps the payroll up to $150-175, then by all means, re-sign Melky and try to patch up the remaining holes without giving up top prospects in trades. However, I don't see Rogers doing that. In fact, I think they'd lower payroll before they even maintain the current level, much less increase it.

This is probably the team's last shot at trading Bautista and Encarnacion and getting the type of elite prospects that would set them up for the type of success AA promised when he got here (long, sustainable, window-free success). If the Jays keep status quo and then re-sign Melky, we are a better version of Amaro's Phillies post-2011, not in terms of financial flexibility, but in terms of trying to stretch a window period that doesn't have a great chance of providing results.
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scottt - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#292007) #
This is probably the team's last shot at trading Bautista and Encarnacion and getting the type of elite prospects that would set them up for the type of success AA promised when he got here (long, sustainable, window-free success).

Those elite prospects don't get traded if their team thinks they will become elite players. Not for guys one year away from free agency. Go look again at what AA got for Halladay.
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greenfrog - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#292008) #
This was probably the year to really go for it. I don't expect major changes next year, though. Melky, Rasmus and Janssen will likely be gone. The Jays may try to move Buehrle to clear some salary space. Gose will be given a shot in CF. The team will try to find some modestly-priced options to fill in at LF and second or third, maybe try to find one more good SP - same as last off-season. I don't see a fire sale happening, but I don't see Rogers doubling down on its bet on contention, either. Probably some sort of cost-conscious middle way, with most of the key players still around for another try at contention, and an emphasis on the "dynamic young rotation" as the new reason for optimism.

Probably there will be some clamouring for AA, Beeston and/or Gibbons to be fired. I don't know if any of them will be let go. It took Rogers a long time to fire Ricciardi. It might take another year of no-playoffs before changes are made (assuming the team doesn't make the playoffs).
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electric carrot - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#292009) #
Man, you guys are almost as depressing as the Seattle series.  Can we at least wait until Sept. before we start talking about dismantling the team and selling it for parts?
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SK in NJ - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#292010) #
Scottt - they both have 1+1 contracts, so it's essentially two year deals at way below market value. Samardzija got the A's best prospect and he had a year and a half left when traded. I think Bautista and Encarnacion will have a ton of value, moreso than Halladay did when he only had a year left and could decide where he wanted to go.

If they Jays are not going to increase payroll, then what's next season's upside? That's my issue with this team. If they were going to play for a three year window, then they should have went all out. They didn't and it likely cost them the playoffs in 2014. I don't want the same thing to happen next year. Either go for it, or rebuild. There should be no middle ground.
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McNulty - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#292011) #
Hear hear. The towel has not been thrown in on the season. Given the events of June 2013 and May 2014, we know that this core of players is capable of a sustained run. Let's just hope they can put one more together.
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, August 14 2014 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#292012) #
Melky is having a career year and has stayed healthy, but he's still only up to 2.3 fWAR.

Yeah, he's been worth $12.8M so far this season (per FanGraphs), which works out to $17M over a full season. So you could pay him something like that for next year, or something in the $45M/3 years range, but you probably don't want to go beyond that.

--

Rasmus I think will get more than Cabrera this winter...

If that's the case, then it'd be Rasmus more so than Cabrera that you'd want to make the qualifying offer to. But I have a hard time believing this. Rasmus has been worth $2.3M so far this year. So that's about $3M pro-rated for the season, and from there it'd seem pretty hard to justify a $15M offer. Of course, he still has the potential for a much better final quarter of the season; if he performs for the rest of the season as he did last year ($24M value in 2013), he could still add another $6M of value this year, putting him around $8M on the season. If he does that -- big if -- then perhaps you could start to justify a QO based on a two-year performance evaluation. (You wouldn't want to push it to a three-year evaluation, though, given his 2012 value of $4.4M.)
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John Northey - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#292016) #
Remember about Cabrera though that he is being seriously hit in FanGraphs by his defense.  -61.1 UZR/150 in RF (30 innings), -44.7 in CF (9 innings), -11.0 in LF (976 innings).  His defense is costing him about 1.5 WAR which seems a bit high for a LF and he is penalized for his poor play in CF/RF when those are spots he really shouldn't be playing and if in 2015 we have Gose & Pillar on the roster all year (as is likely) he probably won't need to.  The projections have his defensive cost half of what it is this year.  So add a full WAR point and his value jumps to $18 mil already, or half a WAR to $15.5 mil (roughly) so far. 

Bottom line?  The Jays should be looking at extending Cabrera if he is open to it right now ala Encarnacion and Bautista.  Doubt he'd go for as team friendly a deal as they did, but it is worth a shot (if it hasn't happened yet).  I suspect this winter he'll go for the biggest bid but unlike many will not demand extra to stay here, instead it'll be more of a if team xyz offers 3 years $39 mil he'll stay here for the same instead of demanding an extra year or something as he seems to like it here and would know that in many places the moment he slumps he'd be subject to PED based chants and rants.  If someone offers 5 years though it'll be bye-bye Cabrera.
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Mike Green - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#292017) #
The pitching looks good, but I don't know if that's still the #1 thing for future success. With the dearth of offence in baseball these days, finding good hitters is becoming a lot more difficult. The Cubs seem to know this and have been using this insight to build a great system. Anthopoulos, by contrast, has really emphasized young pitching, but that might be an outmoded way of thinking. (And in fairness, he's maybe adapting too.) Rany Jazayerli wrote a very good piece on the Cubs' thinking the other day.

Thanks for this link, TUIB.  Jazayerli's article about the Cubs' method is very interesting.  I hadn't given as close thought as Rany did to the question of how Epstein is getting his pitching.  Rany did not mention two things of some interest.  The Cubs do have some interesting pitching prospects in single A  Kane County.  Daury Torrez, Jonathan Martinez, Paul Blackburn and Jen-Ho Tseng.  Three of them are international acquisitions and Blackburn was the 52nd pick of the first round in 2012.  I would describe Epstein's approach to pitching as "thinking fast and slow".  He was not inclined to spend high draft picks or big dollars on starting pitching when his lineup was under construction- he is building the pitching part of the farm system patiently and using sabermetric methods to identify "buy low" opportunities like Arrieta and Turner to give himself rotation possibilities immediately. (as Rany mentions). 

The other point is the apparent contrast between the methods of Epstein and Beane.  Beane has acquired position players using sabermetric (and other) methods to identify buy-low opportunities (Donaldson, Moss, Reddick) and has been spending considerable resources, both dollars and high draft picks, on pitching.  I guess the sequel to Moneyball will have to be Moneyballs; I wonder who gets to play Epstein?  Tom Hanks could have done it 20 or 25 years ago.
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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#292018) #
I think signing Melky for 3/39 is a pipe dream.

the comparable being used seems to be shane victorino, which doesn't make much sense. Victorino was signing for his 32yr old season (not 30 like Melky), coming off a season where he just posted a .700ops overall, and a .630ops v RHP (and had been a below average hitter v. RHP his whole career).

yes, victorino is better defensively, but defense doesn't pay like offense does.


5/75 would be the low end IMO.

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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#292022) #
"The pitching looks good, but I don't know if that's still the #1 thing for future success. With the dearth of offence in baseball these days, finding good hitters is becoming a lot more difficult. The Cubs seem to know this and have been using this insight to build a great system. Anthopoulos, by contrast, has really emphasized young pitching, but that might be an outmoded way of thinking. (And in fairness, he's maybe adapting too.) Rany Jazayerli wrote a very good piece on the Cubs' thinking the other day."


I think the hitting prospects may be underrated. The Jays are building up a nice collection of position prospects.

CF Pompey / Gose / Davis
RF Alford / Crouse / Thomas
LF Smith / Pillar
3B Nay / Burns
SS Urena / Lugo
2B Barreto / Heidt
1B Tellez / Dean
C Pentacost / Jansen

That is a pretty solid collection of position prospects right there, IMO, led by some legit top-end guys and with all the guys listed as "starters" there being legit MLB-starter quality prospects.

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Mike Green - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#292024) #
Most of the position player prospects are a few years away; the difficulty is that most of the interesting ones aren't likely to be ready while Encarnacion and Bautista  are in their early 30s.  There definitely was a moderation of the pitching-first draft approach this time round.  I am glad of that.
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China fan - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#292025) #
"....If they Jays are not going to increase payroll, then what's next season's upside...."

Such appalling pessimism.  Have we not noticed all the young talent on the team and the roster?  The emergence of Stroman, Sanchez, Norris and Hutchison -- all far ahead of the performances that we expected a year ago -- is a huge development this season.  It has big implications for the future of this team, and it means that 2015 is already looking better than 2014.  When you also factor in the presence of young improving players such as Lawrie, Gose, Pompey, Nolin, Graveman, Jimenez etc -- all still young, yet already in the majors or nearly ready for the majors -- this team has a tremendous amount of promise, even if the payroll remains the same, and even if the Jays fail to make the playoffs this year (which is certainly not a fait accompli yet).  And why would we necessarily expect a collapse next year from Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, Dickey, Buehrle, Happ, Navarro etc?  One or two of them might decline, but there's a good chance that most of them will continue to perform at the same level or better -- and they might have better luck with injuries.  I don't see any grounds for pessimism about 2015 when you look at the emerging talent and existing talent.
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John Northey - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#292026) #
I think the big thing is we are seeing a stack of pitchers in AA/AAA now who could be here next year or 2016 at the latest.  That means a lot of savings as Buehrle will come off the books after 2015 and Dickey is on option years after 2015.

Hitters in the system are (outside of Pompey/Gose/Pillar) far away still.  None until 2016 at the earliest most 2017/18 I'd think and a lot can go wrong in that stretch. Luckily AA has had some luck/skill finding decent guys (Francisco was a real find for awhile, Cabrera has been great value this  year, Valencia and Reimold are cheap positives, Tolleson when used properly is valuable, and Kawasaki also is a useful piece).  Trick now is to find solid regulars for weak areas and to get ready for the day Bautista and Encarnacion are no longer able to play like stars.

FYI: McCann is still hitting worse (by OPS+) than Navarro (90 vs 91) although d'Arnaud has recovered and now is up to an OPS+ of 96 (229/295/395) while good ol' JPA has a 71 OPS+ at 1B/CA and a 0.00 ERA as a pitcher (1 inning so don't get excited).
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greenfrog - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#292027) #
To play Devil (Rays)'s advocate:

- Stroman's durability as a starter is as yet unknown
- Hutchison has been up and down this year, and lacks dominant stuff
- Sanchez has been very good in a very SSS as a reliever - hard to know what this portends in 2015
- Norris and Nolin have yet to do anything in the majors
- The team's core is getting relatively old - you can see it in the defense of players like Bautista, Reyes, EE, Navarro and Lind
- Some core players on the team may simply be injury-prone, in part because of age
- Pompey is likely at least a full year away
- Graveman, Gose, Pillar and Jimenez are relatively marginal prospects
- Buehrle and Dickey may be shifting from front/mid-rotation starters to mid/back-end starters
- Most of the team's better and/or tradeable prospects (apart from Norris and Pompey) are in the low minors
- There is little evidence that the Jays will be able to attract quality FAs, given their financial issues

I agree that there have been some positive developments in the organization this year. But the overall picture seems mixed to me, not one that warrants bubbly optimism. Chacun a son gout, I guess.
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Ryan Day - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#292029) #
RF Alford / Crouse / Thomas

Alford's playd 25 pro games in 3 years, and has given no indication that he's likely to give up football; apparently the Jays offered him more money to commit to baseball, and he turned them down.

Alford is more likely to play a role in the Argos' future than the Jays.
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Ron - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#292030) #
Has there been a more lopsided trade in the past 2 years than Esmil Rogers for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles? The Jays traded away the 2nd best catcher in baseball and have nothing to show for it.

Some people thought Gomes had a fluke season last year but he is just as good this year. He's only 27 and locked into a below market contract up to 2021. The long term solution at Catcher has always been a trouble spot for the Jays, too bad they didn't know the answer was already in the organization.
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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#292031) #
"Alford's playd 25 pro games in 3 years, and has given no indication that he's likely to give up football; apparently the Jays offered him more money to commit to baseball, and he turned them down. "


He won't have to "give up football" when his scholarship runs out and he's not drafted. And sitting on the bench in his 3rd year this year to backup a position he's never played before won't be the most enjoyable experience.
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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#292032) #
If we go real slow in development, and just move up our prospects a single level per year, than in 2016 we have:


MLB: OF Pillar 27, 3B/2B Lawrie 26, OF Gose 25, OF Pompey 23, (C Jimenez 26, IF Burns 25, OF Crouse 25)
AAA: OF Smith 23, (IF Lopes 23), (IF Guerrero 23)
AA: 3B Nay 22, SS Lugo 21, 1B Dean 23, (OF Davis 23), (OF Alford 21), (OF Loveless 23)
A+: C Pentacost 23, 2B Heidt 23, SS Pompey 20


I'd say that anyone in AA is in the mix for an MLB job that season. And the chances of Pentacost and Pompey only being in A+ in 2yrs are pretty low.

I'd say most every guy there should be at least in AA to start 2016, if not higher, and could be in the mix for MLB playing time.
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Mike Green - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#292033) #
I guess there are two ways of looking at that.  Yes, it was a bad deal.  The other more optimistic take is that it was a symptom of poor evaluation and development of position players in the Jay minor league system over the past few years, but that there was some significant objective evidence of improvement this year on the development side.  This may lead to the suggestion that evaluations are better, as well.  Changes were made in the off-season.
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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#292034) #
Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
Sources: #BlueJays option Anthony Gose to triple-A Buffalo to make room for EE:



correct move imo.
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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#292035) #
Should have a fairly permanent lineup now hopefully.


1. SS Reyes
2. LF Cabrera
3. RF Bautista
4. 1B Encarnacion
5. DH Lind/Reimold
6. C Navarro
7. 3B Francisco/Valencia
8. CF Rasmus
9. 2B Kawasaki/Tolleson

hope Gibbons can just go with it and not fiddle around too much.
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TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#292040) #
correct move imo.

I agree -- tough decision but it's only till Sept. 1, and for the sake of two weeks it's not worth losing Francisco on waivers. The only thing is that if we make the playoffs, Gose should be on the roster, and by leaving him down till September, we lose that option. Of course, an injury between now and then and he'll be back, or an injury in September can also make him eligible, I believe, so there's a good chance this won't be a concern.
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uglyone - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#292046) #
and of course, Gibby goes with Valencia v. the RHP tonight, just to mess with me.

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Chuck - Friday, August 15 2014 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#292053) #
and of course, Gibby goes with Valencia v. the RHP tonight

Can Francisco be in a bigger dog house?

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