Sanchez, Scherzer and Price for the visitors, against Dickey, Stroman and Buehrle.
Rajai Davis has been pressed into fulltime duty but is nonetheless posting overall numbers well above his career norms. His 959/623 split, however, suggests he should still be platooning. And with Austin Jackson gone, Davis is now the team's starting CF. And that can't be good.
If a team could use a LH hitting CF with some defensive ability, the Tigers are it.
Disparage Valencia against RHP? He gets a hit. Disparage Davis against RHP? He gets two doubles.
Anyone else need disparaging?
I think everyone saw a 6-hit game coming from Rajai Davis at some point in the series no matter how little sense it made.
There's a note over at mlb.com that Derek Jeter has tied Honus Wagner for 6th on the all-time list with his 3430th hit. It's a little more likely that Jeter actually passed Wagner a couple of weeks ago. It's all a muddle. Furthermore, BB-ref.com thinks Jeter is still chasing Cap Anson, but they're counting Anson's five years in the National Association, which mlb.com ignores (their counting begins with the founding of the National League in 1876.)
All things Rogers are conspiring to disappoint Canadians. Shelby Rogers... beats Eugenie Bouchard. Rogers Cup... sees the top two Canadians ousted early. Esmil Rogers... pitches well for the Yankees. Rogers Centre... well, I just don't like it. Rogers Corporation... how much time you got?
Rogers Hornsby hasn't been a problem.
Sigh. Casey doesn't seem to be missing as many bats this year. His k's are definitely way down.
Losing this one would really, really hurt. Casey had nothing tonight.
I mean last year obviously sucked as did many years in the last twenty but this one has been tough. Such a rollercoaster ride.
Janssen
Pre All-Star ERA 1.23
Post All-Star? was 7.04 before tonight...
I still think AA needed to strengthen the bullpen.
Pre All-Star ERA 1.23
Post All-Star? was 7.04 before tonight...
I still think AA needed to strengthen the bullpen.
Why does Valencia even bat in that situation? Is Juan Francisco unavailable to hit because he's eating a sub in the clubhouse?
I don't get it.
I don't get it.
It was probably a mistake to use Janssen three days in a row. Janssen is a very good reliever, but he has to be used properly.
Of course, before Janssen's outing Buck had to confidently say that "he should have plenty in the tank" despite having worked on Wednesday and Thursday.
Of course, before Janssen's outing Buck had to confidently say that "he should have plenty in the tank" despite having worked on Wednesday and Thursday.
Tough loss. The Jays really could have used some reinforcements at the deadline. Instead we're seeing hitters like Thole, Goins and Valencia (against RHP) in critical situations, and the Jays are falling off the pace.
Instead we're seeing hitters like Thole, Goins and Valencia (against RHP)
There's nothing wrong with having Thole against a RHP. As for Valenica, that's hardly out of necessity -- there are options (tonight Francisco and Reimold) that our manager is too thick-headed to use.
Here's a John Lott tweet from before the game: Valencia has 895 career PAs vs RHP, .228 avg, .623 OPS. Why start him vs RHP? Gibbons: "We want to see what he can do."
There's nothing wrong with having Thole against a RHP. As for Valenica, that's hardly out of necessity -- there are options (tonight Francisco and Reimold) that our manager is too thick-headed to use.
Here's a John Lott tweet from before the game: Valencia has 895 career PAs vs RHP, .228 avg, .623 OPS. Why start him vs RHP? Gibbons: "We want to see what he can do."
His k's are definitely way down.
They are, yeah. His K/9 rate is down from the 8.5-9.5 range the last few years to 5.2 this year. His xFIP entering tonight's game was 4.07.
They are, yeah. His K/9 rate is down from the 8.5-9.5 range the last few years to 5.2 this year. His xFIP entering tonight's game was 4.07.
I guess Casey had adding a closer in mind when he complained about AA not making moves at the deadline.
"We want to see what he can do" - really?? In a pennant race?? If he actually said that, he's an idiot. Valencia can't hit right handers - will somebody please, please explain this to Gibbons. His stubborn refusal to accept this is costing the Jays games. How you can let Valencia attempt to hit Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9th inning of a 1 run game with the tying run on base, with Nolan Reimold and Juan Francisco both on the bench, in the middle of a pennant race is beyond comprehension. Watching Valencia wave in utter futility at a pitch a foot out of the strike zone was embarrassing. Reimold never did bat in the inning. Francisco eventually did, only because Colby got a walk, and Francisco got on base. Nathan clearly was not comfortable pitching to Francisco, and I think Reimold would have had a decent chance against him. Valencia was, predictably, totally overmatched. Why does Gibbons think Valencia can hit righties and Reimold can't when the stats are screaming the exact opposite? How is this nonsense acceptable to the organization?
Sanchez has reverse splits. But the difference isn't that large.
I was also baffled by the decision tonight.
I have a feeling something else was going on with Fransisco.
Gibbons plays the stats pretty well, so it makes him across worse when something is going on. Because you know he knows better.
ie. Kevin Pillar throwing his bat
I was also baffled by the decision tonight.
I have a feeling something else was going on with Fransisco.
Gibbons plays the stats pretty well, so it makes him across worse when something is going on. Because you know he knows better.
ie. Kevin Pillar throwing his bat
If John Gibbons doesn't understand when and when not to bring in Casey Janssen, it's because he doesn't trust his Bullpen. Pitchers capable of pitching more than one inning should pitch more than one inning when they come in. At least that way you might save your Bullpen.
One thing I've noticed over the course of the year is the limits to the Jays' scoring. Not often, but even once is too many times. Toronto is scoring and keeps scoring until the opponents do and then stops scoring totally. You don't always win when that happens, like today. I've noticed they have trouble retaking the lead in a game, but especially if they must do it more than once.
A.A. needs to put everyone on waivers (3 per day) until it's all done. See what you can get for Bautista, Dickey, Buehrle, Reyes and others and if it's close, pull the trigger and do it. At least you'll know who wants what this offseason and what price. To acquire someone and their salary, you might need to clear someone and salary too, that should have been obvious from day one. Right now I couldn't even guess what A.A. with do and only a fool would take the easy out and say "nothing".
One thing I've noticed over the course of the year is the limits to the Jays' scoring. Not often, but even once is too many times. Toronto is scoring and keeps scoring until the opponents do and then stops scoring totally. You don't always win when that happens, like today. I've noticed they have trouble retaking the lead in a game, but especially if they must do it more than once.
A.A. needs to put everyone on waivers (3 per day) until it's all done. See what you can get for Bautista, Dickey, Buehrle, Reyes and others and if it's close, pull the trigger and do it. At least you'll know who wants what this offseason and what price. To acquire someone and their salary, you might need to clear someone and salary too, that should have been obvious from day one. Right now I couldn't even guess what A.A. with do and only a fool would take the easy out and say "nothing".
"We want to see what he can do" - really?? In a pennant race??
I had the same reaction, Dan. No margin for error at times like this and here's Gibbons essentially saying he's not gonna trust all them numbers till he sees things himself. It's like those previous 900 ABs are a rumour he ain't buying.
I had the same reaction, Dan. No margin for error at times like this and here's Gibbons essentially saying he's not gonna trust all them numbers till he sees things himself. It's like those previous 900 ABs are a rumour he ain't buying.
Sanchez has reverse splits. But the difference isn't that large.
Which would seem to be the right time to use Reimold then. Gibbons actually has a good bench these days -- lots of depth and versatility -- but he's making a real hash of things.
Which would seem to be the right time to use Reimold then. Gibbons actually has a good bench these days -- lots of depth and versatility -- but he's making a real hash of things.
I missed last night's game in favour of the movie Boyhood. Highly recommended, and with some live baseball content for ya. When you have seen somewhere between 500 and 1000 movies in one's lifetime and the day after seeing a new one, you are still trying to decide whether it is the best you have ever seen, that's saying something. Let's just say that it's a heady mix of the Up series and a couple of Coen brother movies. Or at least so I thought.
When Gibbons brought Janssen in on Wednesday, I thought "good move". Get him some work. When he brought Janssen in on Thursday down 2-1, I thought "all right, that's innovative but that does put Janssen out for Friday night...no problem you can use Loup instead". Gibbons has made some real, um, mistakes (young people, when you read in an old book that "xyz made a real boner", know that people actually did say that).
When Gibbons brought Janssen in on Wednesday, I thought "good move". Get him some work. When he brought Janssen in on Thursday down 2-1, I thought "all right, that's innovative but that does put Janssen out for Friday night...no problem you can use Loup instead". Gibbons has made some real, um, mistakes (young people, when you read in an old book that "xyz made a real boner", know that people actually did say that).
In the 9th inning, Gibbons finally brought in Francisco, who the Tigers quickly pitched around with a four-pitch walk to face Thole and end the game. That move was decided when the lineup cards were exchanged and the Tigers saw that Gibbons had his other catcher, rather than Francisco, or Reimold, DH'ing. Even then, he should have used Reimold and lost the DH in the 9th rather than let Thole hit.
Janssen has pitched poorly since the break. I imagine he will respond to warming up in the pen every day much like Cecil did when he ended up on the DL in the first half.
Janssen has pitched poorly since the break. I imagine he will respond to warming up in the pen every day much like Cecil did when he ended up on the DL in the first half.
When Gibbons gets desperate to win (and these are desperate times), his managing sometimes seems to take a turn for the worse.
He did roll boxcars by bringing in Sanchez for two innings against the Red Sox in his debut, though. That was a gutsy move that paid off. Last night's move reminded me of Gaston's use of Kevin Gregg, for whom three days in a row was almost always a very bad idea.
He did roll boxcars by bringing in Sanchez for two innings against the Red Sox in his debut, though. That was a gutsy move that paid off. Last night's move reminded me of Gaston's use of Kevin Gregg, for whom three days in a row was almost always a very bad idea.
That move was decided when the lineup cards were exchanged...
If the Tigers were intentionally moving the tying run to 3B and the winning run to 2B by walking Francisco, then they were doing us a favour.
If the Tigers were intentionally moving the tying run to 3B and the winning run to 2B by walking Francisco, then they were doing us a favour.
the movie Boyhood
Unfortunately, this won't be hitting the non-center-of-the-universe cities for a few weeks. 100 at MetaCritic. Linklater's pedigree. Comps to Up and, now, the Coens. Expectations are incredibly high.
It's a slow-paced film, Chuck. I went in with high expectations, but instinctively made a night out of it- a relaxed early dinner, a trip to the bookstore and then the movie. I'll happily concede that the film hit my sweet spot in the themes, style and what one might call the cultural context. It takes a lot of guts for a director and actors to commit so much time to a project and that is what is so special about it- I've read interviews with Ethan Hawke and Ellar Coltrane (who plays the boy), but would like to read something from Patricia Arquette who played the mother. I could probably find something on the internet.
Others have hinted at it, but the decision to DH Navarro is almost as weird as the decision to play Valencia. Valencia at least offers something defensively. The idea that Navarro is a better hitter against RHP than Francisco lacks evidence and you want to give him some rest anyway (and you want to have flexibility in case a LOOGY comes in to face Thole).
Others have hinted at it, but the decision to DH Navarro is almost as weird as the decision to play Valencia. Valencia at least offers something defensively. The idea that Navarro is a better hitter against RHP than Francisco lacks evidence and you want to give him some rest anyway (and you want to have flexibility in case a LOOGY comes in to face Thole).
Janssen's post all-star ERA is now 9.72
He was getting lots of rest early on, so I'd try to rest him more.
He was getting lots of rest early on, so I'd try to rest him more.
"I guess Casey had adding a closer in mind when he complained about AA not making moves at the deadline."
Thought crossed my evil mind also.
On the other hand if we had a good pinch hitter for Thole in the 9th..
- was wishing that Pillar was suddenly available and won the game.
On the third hand, I'm glad we didn't give up any prospects for what is close to a a sunk cause this year.
Thought crossed my evil mind also.
On the other hand if we had a good pinch hitter for Thole in the 9th..
- was wishing that Pillar was suddenly available and won the game.
On the third hand, I'm glad we didn't give up any prospects for what is close to a a sunk cause this year.
I saw the film when visiting Toronto a couple of weeks ago. Coltrane happened to be at the Varsity that night and was introduced to the audience at the outset of the film.
I wonder if Francisco is in coaching staff's doghouse for some reason. He's been slumping, but the decision to sit him against Sanchez was nonetheless strange.
There are some moves Gibbons does that are great, but boy is he asleep at the wheel lately eh? I mean, unless there are major, major issues we do not know of behind the scenes the following are moves anyone with a basic look at players careers would not make...
Janssen: 3 days in a row? Really? Why? No pitcher gets better the more tired they get and that was really pushing it. Yes, 'in my day' closers would do that but they'd blow saves more often too. On the plus side for the decision that was the 8th time Janssen was used with no rest and in the other 7 he threw 7 innings, 2 H 0 R 0 BB 6 SO never facing more than 4 batters in that one inning of work each time.
Navarro: you have 2 catchers now, not 3, so using one as your DH is taking a big risk. I think every other manager the Jays have had would avoid having no catchers on the bench at the start of the game to a crazy degree. If Navarro was hitting up a storm I could see it, but he has a 93 OPS+, hitting for a 731 OPS in the past 10, although if you go back to the past 23 (cherry picking) you get a 337/367/489 line. Still not enough to justify removing all flexibility behind the plate.
Reimold: did he run over Gibbons cat with his car? A 910 OPS, but in August in 7 critical games he has had 16 PA. Now, he has slumped in those 16 PA (404 OPS) but stretch it out 2 more games (to cover since he came back) and you have a 841 OPS. Not sure if Gibbons thinks Reimold just isn't that good or something.
Valencia: Others have pointed out how he cannot hit RHP just like Lind cannot hit LHP yet, like with Lind, the manager keeps sending him out there just in case he suddenly figures it out. Very weird. As a partial explanation as a Jay he has a 706 OPS vs RHP and a 606 vs LHP but each sample is under 20 PA. Gibbons seems to love small sample sizes though...
In the end the frustrating thing is that the Jays had a 93% shot at winning coming into the 9th, 91% after getting one out. Those games should not be lost, but 1 in 10 of them will be. Sigh. Now 6 games out of first, 1 1/2 out of the wild card. KC holds the wild card with NY and Seattle also ahead of the Jays now. Stroman goes today to try to stop the bleeding.
Janssen: 3 days in a row? Really? Why? No pitcher gets better the more tired they get and that was really pushing it. Yes, 'in my day' closers would do that but they'd blow saves more often too. On the plus side for the decision that was the 8th time Janssen was used with no rest and in the other 7 he threw 7 innings, 2 H 0 R 0 BB 6 SO never facing more than 4 batters in that one inning of work each time.
Navarro: you have 2 catchers now, not 3, so using one as your DH is taking a big risk. I think every other manager the Jays have had would avoid having no catchers on the bench at the start of the game to a crazy degree. If Navarro was hitting up a storm I could see it, but he has a 93 OPS+, hitting for a 731 OPS in the past 10, although if you go back to the past 23 (cherry picking) you get a 337/367/489 line. Still not enough to justify removing all flexibility behind the plate.
Reimold: did he run over Gibbons cat with his car? A 910 OPS, but in August in 7 critical games he has had 16 PA. Now, he has slumped in those 16 PA (404 OPS) but stretch it out 2 more games (to cover since he came back) and you have a 841 OPS. Not sure if Gibbons thinks Reimold just isn't that good or something.
Valencia: Others have pointed out how he cannot hit RHP just like Lind cannot hit LHP yet, like with Lind, the manager keeps sending him out there just in case he suddenly figures it out. Very weird. As a partial explanation as a Jay he has a 706 OPS vs RHP and a 606 vs LHP but each sample is under 20 PA. Gibbons seems to love small sample sizes though...
In the end the frustrating thing is that the Jays had a 93% shot at winning coming into the 9th, 91% after getting one out. Those games should not be lost, but 1 in 10 of them will be. Sigh. Now 6 games out of first, 1 1/2 out of the wild card. KC holds the wild card with NY and Seattle also ahead of the Jays now. Stroman goes today to try to stop the bleeding.
it's a heady mix of the Up series and a couple of Coen brother movies.
It reminded me more of the Before movies, for the obvious timespan/Hawke/Linklater reasons. You may have read the same things Mike, but Hawke spoke of the 'workshops' that Linklater does in preparation with the actors. I think it was because of the Linklater connection that Hawke agreed to that kind of time commitment.
It reminded me more of the Before movies, for the obvious timespan/Hawke/Linklater reasons. You may have read the same things Mike, but Hawke spoke of the 'workshops' that Linklater does in preparation with the actors. I think it was because of the Linklater connection that Hawke agreed to that kind of time commitment.
I think the Janssen decision is defensible given that he only pitched .1 of an inning three days ago. Not really sure why he needs to "take a look at" Valencia vs RHP though. Francisco has been strugging a bit recently (1 for last 17) so maybe Gibbons thought he needed a day off to clear his head...
This probably makes Janssen a lot more affordable in the off-season. Who else wants a brittle closer with an ERA above 3.5?
I read a Patricia Arquette interview from the Telegraph (UK)- I had no idea that her mother was Jewish and her father was Muslim. It's a fascinating interview, but I don't recommend that anyone read it until after seeing the movie
I wonder how much input Gibbons is getting from Seitzer on lineup matters. Seitzer seems to be meticulous, and I would be surprised if he would have supported some of the recent decisions (if asked). There's obviously a lot more to lineup decisions than batting skill.
I wonder how much input Gibbons is getting from Seitzer on lineup matters. Seitzer seems to be meticulous, and I would be surprised if he would have supported some of the recent decisions (if asked). There's obviously a lot more to lineup decisions than batting skill.
I'll await reading the Patricia Arquette interview. When I learned that she was in the cast, I got nervous. I wasn't sure she'd have the acting chops worthy of such a project.
Where has the Jays' "elite" offense gone? In the last seven games, they've scored 1, 2, 1, 3, 5, 1, 4 runs. They've lost six of those games and have gone from 2.5 GB to 6.0 GB in the division.
Probably a combination of prolonged injuries to some key players, a lack of reinforcements by the budget-conscious front office, and (perhaps) the remaining regulars getting a bit tired from everyday play (and getting pitched around).
Probably a combination of prolonged injuries to some key players, a lack of reinforcements by the budget-conscious front office, and (perhaps) the remaining regulars getting a bit tired from everyday play (and getting pitched around).
will they use Nathan again after so many pitches yesterday?
Is Reimold hurt? Or perhaps deceased?
Is Valencia married to Gibbons' daughter or something?
Oops. Never mind. Reimold gets his swings too.
Good God. Valencia's a better option than Gose (which is what that all amounted to) to hit against Scherzer?
I was pleased when Valencia was acquired but (semi-)joked that he may be a net negative if he gets too many ABs against RHP.
Is Reimold hurt? Or perhaps deceased?
Is Valencia married to Gibbons' daughter or something?
Found them.
We got the Tigers back for yesterday's blown save. Nice comeback win.
Found them.
We got the Tigers back for yesterday's blown save. Nice comeback win.
Don't know why the Tigers took Scherzer out, and having done that, why they went with Nathan again instead of Soria. But I'll take it.
Upon acquiring Soria, when it looked like Nathan had maybe lost his closer's job, Ausmus made a point of saying that Nathan was still the guy. And now he's continuing to show that loyalty, even to the detriment of the team.
Listening to the press conference, somebody asked Gibbons something like the following: "Were you happy to see Stroman bounce back with a great start after his mediocre start in Houston?". Honestly, somebody got paid to say those words out loud (might have been Barry Davis; all his questions sound like that). Full power to Gibbons for playing along and answering in cliche speak and not pulling a Gregg Popovich, even if that would have been more entertaining.
Edwin Encarnacion is DHing for Dunedin tonight and singled in his first at-bat.
Scherzer threw 106 pitches. He's starting 9-10 more games and 4-6 Postseason games, so I can see him being pulled when he was.
Say, wasn't this supposed to be a tough part of the schedule for Baltimore? In August they have had 3 vs Seattle (wild card contender), 1 vs Washington, 3 vs the Jays, and now 2 vs the Cardinals and they have gone 7-2 over those 9 games. One more vs the Cards then 3 vs the Yanks.
Jays have 6 more vs Baltimore in September including the final 3 of the season in Toronto. Lets hope by some miracle the Jays can be within 3 when that series starts.
Jays have 6 more vs Baltimore in September including the final 3 of the season in Toronto. Lets hope by some miracle the Jays can be within 3 when that series starts.
wasn't this supposed to be a tough part of the schedule for Baltimore?
I don't think the concept applies anymore. At this point, the Orioles are better than just about anyone who shows up on their schedule. They've simply gotten better and better the deeper into the season they get. A couple of months ago, I was looking at their rotation and dismissing them as pretenders. My bad.
Here are Baltimore's runs allowed per game this season:
All teams and their fans like to complain about the adversity they've had to overcome. I think it's lucky for the rest of the AL East that Baltimore's star slugger still hasn't cleared the Mendoza Line, that their all-star catcher went down for the season after playing just 26 games, and their 21 year old phenom has missed 36 games. Or they might have a double digit lead by now.
I don't think the concept applies anymore. At this point, the Orioles are better than just about anyone who shows up on their schedule. They've simply gotten better and better the deeper into the season they get. A couple of months ago, I was looking at their rotation and dismissing them as pretenders. My bad.
Here are Baltimore's runs allowed per game this season:
April - 4.91 May - 4.06 June - 3.71 July - 3.28 August - 2.67
All teams and their fans like to complain about the adversity they've had to overcome. I think it's lucky for the rest of the AL East that Baltimore's star slugger still hasn't cleared the Mendoza Line, that their all-star catcher went down for the season after playing just 26 games, and their 21 year old phenom has missed 36 games. Or they might have a double digit lead by now.
No, that's backwards.
You cannot make an argument that the orioles have had bad luck with injuries or underperformances this year. Not at all. They have probably been the healthiest team in the league this year, and citing one player underperforming who doesn't even have much of a track record of performing misleads when the rest of the roster has exceeded expectations overall.
And if i'm a betting man, i bet against their SP keeping this hot streak up much longer. Their era has dropped month by month like you pointed out, but their fip and xfip have stayed pretty much the same. First coouple of months era lined up with the fips, last couple of months era has been way under the fips. They might keep it up but i doubt itl
You cannot make an argument that the orioles have had bad luck with injuries or underperformances this year. Not at all. They have probably been the healthiest team in the league this year, and citing one player underperforming who doesn't even have much of a track record of performing misleads when the rest of the roster has exceeded expectations overall.
And if i'm a betting man, i bet against their SP keeping this hot streak up much longer. Their era has dropped month by month like you pointed out, but their fip and xfip have stayed pretty much the same. First coouple of months era lined up with the fips, last couple of months era has been way under the fips. They might keep it up but i doubt itl
Baltimore has had some luck...
Rotation: 7 guys used, one had just one start so just 6 counted on at all. The worst ERA+? Jimenez, the big free agent at 87 (and is on the DL). The rest are 100-106. To have just one injury and all but the hurt one being solid is quite the feat.
Their team FIP is 4.12 but ERA is 3.65 - that is a big difference.
Their offense has seen 17 hitters. The Jays are up to 26. 19 pitchers used, Jays 23 (22 real ones).
If you use BP 3rd order wins you see that Tampa has been insanely unlucky as they should be in first with a 553 winning percentage - 7.6 wins more than they have. Baltimore has 4 more wins then they should have, the Jays 0.7 less. The Yankees are even luckier as they have an extra 5.2 wins, and the Red Sox are not quite as bad as they seem, but just 2.1 wins off. Under 'accurate' standings the Rays would be 1st, Jays 3rd 3 games back, O's 1 1/2 back. However, this also says the 2 wildcards would safely be in the West leaving just the division title for the Jays to chase.
Clearly things have gone very, very well for Baltimore.
Rotation: 7 guys used, one had just one start so just 6 counted on at all. The worst ERA+? Jimenez, the big free agent at 87 (and is on the DL). The rest are 100-106. To have just one injury and all but the hurt one being solid is quite the feat.
Their team FIP is 4.12 but ERA is 3.65 - that is a big difference.
Their offense has seen 17 hitters. The Jays are up to 26. 19 pitchers used, Jays 23 (22 real ones).
If you use BP 3rd order wins you see that Tampa has been insanely unlucky as they should be in first with a 553 winning percentage - 7.6 wins more than they have. Baltimore has 4 more wins then they should have, the Jays 0.7 less. The Yankees are even luckier as they have an extra 5.2 wins, and the Red Sox are not quite as bad as they seem, but just 2.1 wins off. Under 'accurate' standings the Rays would be 1st, Jays 3rd 3 games back, O's 1 1/2 back. However, this also says the 2 wildcards would safely be in the West leaving just the division title for the Jays to chase.
Clearly things have gone very, very well for Baltimore.
What's the playoff rotation at this point? Stroman, Buehrle and Dickey?
doesn't even have much of a track record of performing
We're talking about Chris Davis, right? If you want to toss out the year he hit .286 with 53 HRs, you've still got to account for the year he hit .270 with 33 HRs. Davis came into this season with a line of .266/.327/.512 in more than 2000 plate appearances. Looks like a track record to me.
Who exactly is over-performing? Hardy, Jones, Markakis, and Cruz are all basically putting up their career averages. Even Machado's doing no more than that (and you'd really hope a 21 year old might actually show some improvement instead.) And the rest of the lineup doesn't hit.
We're talking about Chris Davis, right? If you want to toss out the year he hit .286 with 53 HRs, you've still got to account for the year he hit .270 with 33 HRs. Davis came into this season with a line of .266/.327/.512 in more than 2000 plate appearances. Looks like a track record to me.
Who exactly is over-performing? Hardy, Jones, Markakis, and Cruz are all basically putting up their career averages. Even Machado's doing no more than that (and you'd really hope a 21 year old might actually show some improvement instead.) And the rest of the lineup doesn't hit.
For the last three years, people have been saying that the Orioles are basically lucky or overrated, not good. Three years is a pretty long run of luck, don't you think? Especially when compared to, say, one month (May 2014).
The Arrieta trade notwithstanding, I credit the underrated work of Showalter and Duquette (which I've been pointing out for the last couple of years).
The Arrieta trade notwithstanding, I credit the underrated work of Showalter and Duquette (which I've been pointing out for the last couple of years).
John pointing out Baltimore's third order wins is spot-on - unless there's a flaw in that measure, they've been lucky.
But, I don't think the Jays have been wildly unlucky with injuries. AA just didn't have enough ML ready youngsters or good enough AAA depth. He did the best he could, I believe, and has made some good in season depth moves, but there ought to have been more there from the opening of the season. Sure, the mid-level starters many of us coveted didn't work and 2B hasn't been that bad (nice fangraphs article on this) but these holes needed to be filled or at least have a better plan on opening day. It is what it is, but it seems like a stumble to not address the obvious that is Morrow, McGowan, and Goins. What was the likelihood of that working out?
But, I don't think the Jays have been wildly unlucky with injuries. AA just didn't have enough ML ready youngsters or good enough AAA depth. He did the best he could, I believe, and has made some good in season depth moves, but there ought to have been more there from the opening of the season. Sure, the mid-level starters many of us coveted didn't work and 2B hasn't been that bad (nice fangraphs article on this) but these holes needed to be filled or at least have a better plan on opening day. It is what it is, but it seems like a stumble to not address the obvious that is Morrow, McGowan, and Goins. What was the likelihood of that working out?
Blue Jays quote of the year from Chad Jenkins: "God bless their soul and the Hazmat unit that vacuumed it up." Strange doings in the 9th inning Friday at Rogers Centre:
God bless their soul and the Hazmat unit that vacuumed it up
Brooks Robinson could have taken care of it. Don't know how he would have managed the throw to first though. It puts me in mind of the film "After Life". In the movie, an agency helps people about to enter the hereafter to recreate one memory to take with on the journey to eternity. There is a touching element to it and humour in the bureaucracy.
If you look at the AL East standings 2012-14, the O's have a 4 game lead on the Yankees and a 5 game lead on the Rays. You have to respect that. The core of the club- Jones, Markakis, Machado, Hardy, Davis and Wieters- are good but not great offensive players, but the defense is very good. I don't think people are aware that J.J. Hardy has been more valuable than Jose Reyes for quite a few years now. The other thing about the O's success is the whole "ace" mythology. I am sure that Showalter would love to have an ace starting pitcher, but he hasn't had one over these three years and has managed quite well, thank you very much. Decent starting pitching can carry a club a long way with a good defence to support it.
Brooks Robinson could have taken care of it. Don't know how he would have managed the throw to first though. It puts me in mind of the film "After Life". In the movie, an agency helps people about to enter the hereafter to recreate one memory to take with on the journey to eternity. There is a touching element to it and humour in the bureaucracy.
If you look at the AL East standings 2012-14, the O's have a 4 game lead on the Yankees and a 5 game lead on the Rays. You have to respect that. The core of the club- Jones, Markakis, Machado, Hardy, Davis and Wieters- are good but not great offensive players, but the defense is very good. I don't think people are aware that J.J. Hardy has been more valuable than Jose Reyes for quite a few years now. The other thing about the O's success is the whole "ace" mythology. I am sure that Showalter would love to have an ace starting pitcher, but he hasn't had one over these three years and has managed quite well, thank you very much. Decent starting pitching can carry a club a long way with a good defence to support it.
Did anyone consider the past Offseason? Toronto had a few more restrictions in acquiring Talent than Baltimore did.
I thought it interesting that A.A. made a deliberate point about how Navarro's salary was equal to what J.P. would have gotten in arbitration. I think the ability to take on salary was a huge issue.
As for Ubaldo Jimenez, he's a decent acquisition. In 12 of his 19 starts this year he's kept his team in the game (6.0 or more IP, with 4 or fewer Runs allowed). This is not uncommon with many other pitchers, stuff like this happens. When your Starter leaves and you are still in the game, it's a good start. You'd like it to be better, but as long as you are still in the game, that's what matters.
A.A. had more to do and did so little. Balti's GM did things, he just had less to do. All season long, he's just had less to do.
I thought it interesting that A.A. made a deliberate point about how Navarro's salary was equal to what J.P. would have gotten in arbitration. I think the ability to take on salary was a huge issue.
As for Ubaldo Jimenez, he's a decent acquisition. In 12 of his 19 starts this year he's kept his team in the game (6.0 or more IP, with 4 or fewer Runs allowed). This is not uncommon with many other pitchers, stuff like this happens. When your Starter leaves and you are still in the game, it's a good start. You'd like it to be better, but as long as you are still in the game, that's what matters.
A.A. had more to do and did so little. Balti's GM did things, he just had less to do. All season long, he's just had less to do.
It puts me in mind of the film "After Life"
Must be movie thread. Really good movie by a great director, Kore-eda.So the game is pretty much over after trailing 3-0 after the first. David Price owns the Jays. The only chance they have is to work the counts, make Price rack up the pitch count and get him over 100 through 4 or 5 at the least
Maybe shifting Reyes to 2B might be the right play.
"Who exactly is over-performing? Hardy, Jones, Markakis, and Cruz are all basically putting up their career averages. Even Machado's doing no more than that (and you'd really hope a 21 year old might actually show some improvement instead.) And the rest of the lineup doesn't hit."
Comparing current wOBA to preseason zips projections (100pa min), their offense has similar over and underachievers:
Player: Current - Proj (Diff)
Young: .365 ---- .309 (+.056)
Pearce: .376 --- .325 (+.051)
Wieters: .364 -- .321 (+.043) --- Joseph .313 (no proj)
Cruz: .360 ----- .340 (+.020)
Markakis: .336 - .322 (+.014)
Jones: .344 ---- .342 (+.002)
Machado: .329 -- .331 (-.002)
Hardy: .311 ---- .318 (-.007)
Lough: .276 ---- .296 (-.020)
Hundley: .263 -- .291 (-.028)
Flaherty: .269 - .300 (-.031)
Schoop: .263 --- .309 (-.046)
Davis: .307 ---- .377 (-.070)
SP have almost all overachieved their projected ERAs:
Norris: 3.68 --- 4.31 (+0.63)
Gausman: 3.77 -- 4.28 (+0.51)
Tillman: 3.73 -- 4.14 (+0.41)
Gonzalez: 3.80 - 4.18 (+0.38)
Chen: 3.90 ----- 4.16 (+0.26)
Jimenez: 4.51 -- 3.77 (-0.74)
The RP have crushed their projected ERAs:
Britton 1.56 --- 4.93 (+3.37)
O'Day 1.06 ----- 3.34 (+2.28)
McFarland 3.18 - 5.00 (+1.82)
Brach 2.84 ----- 4.62 (+1.78)
Hunter 3.61 ---- 4.00 (+0.39)
Webb 3.80 ------ 4.17 (+0.37)
Matusz 3.92 ---- 3.66 (-0.26)
So the pitching has come in way above expectations.
Healthwise, they've only had 2 position players hit the DL.
They've had 3 SP hit the DL, but none at the same time, so they haven't had to go past their #6 SP. And two of those injuries were to their two worst sp this year.
They have yet to have a reliever hit the DL.
Comparing current wOBA to preseason zips projections (100pa min), their offense has similar over and underachievers:
Player: Current - Proj (Diff)
Young: .365 ---- .309 (+.056)
Pearce: .376 --- .325 (+.051)
Wieters: .364 -- .321 (+.043) --- Joseph .313 (no proj)
Cruz: .360 ----- .340 (+.020)
Markakis: .336 - .322 (+.014)
Jones: .344 ---- .342 (+.002)
Machado: .329 -- .331 (-.002)
Hardy: .311 ---- .318 (-.007)
Lough: .276 ---- .296 (-.020)
Hundley: .263 -- .291 (-.028)
Flaherty: .269 - .300 (-.031)
Schoop: .263 --- .309 (-.046)
Davis: .307 ---- .377 (-.070)
SP have almost all overachieved their projected ERAs:
Norris: 3.68 --- 4.31 (+0.63)
Gausman: 3.77 -- 4.28 (+0.51)
Tillman: 3.73 -- 4.14 (+0.41)
Gonzalez: 3.80 - 4.18 (+0.38)
Chen: 3.90 ----- 4.16 (+0.26)
Jimenez: 4.51 -- 3.77 (-0.74)
The RP have crushed their projected ERAs:
Britton 1.56 --- 4.93 (+3.37)
O'Day 1.06 ----- 3.34 (+2.28)
McFarland 3.18 - 5.00 (+1.82)
Brach 2.84 ----- 4.62 (+1.78)
Hunter 3.61 ---- 4.00 (+0.39)
Webb 3.80 ------ 4.17 (+0.37)
Matusz 3.92 ---- 3.66 (-0.26)
So the pitching has come in way above expectations.
Healthwise, they've only had 2 position players hit the DL.
They've had 3 SP hit the DL, but none at the same time, so they haven't had to go past their #6 SP. And two of those injuries were to their two worst sp this year.
They have yet to have a reliever hit the DL.
"For the last three years, people have been saying that the Orioles are basically lucky or overrated, not good. "
I don't think anyone thinks they were lucky last year.
I don't think anyone thinks they were lucky last year.
Well, thanks for bringing in Coke. (Can someone explain Coke's continued life in MLB? He has never been very good. He doesn't even have LOOGY skills. I'm at a loss to understand his continued employement.)
Not a huge fan of sending the runners when bautista is at the plate.
Buehrle's becoming a big concern though. Even with the error buehrle has to be better than this.
Bad news is the bottom of the order is up in the bottom of the 9th.
Good news is that the tigers are out of decent relievers.
Buehrle's becoming a big concern though. Even with the error buehrle has to be better than this.
Bad news is the bottom of the order is up in the bottom of the 9th.
Good news is that the tigers are out of decent relievers.
Coke is pretty much a replacement value pitcher, but he's a lefty, he throws hard and he strikes out more than he walks.
Basically, Dombrowsky doesn't have a Relief Pitcher fetish and spends his money elsewhere.
Basically, Dombrowsky doesn't have a Relief Pitcher fetish and spends his money elsewhere.
As a temporary distraction from the extra inning festivities I would like to report that Daniel Norris is good at baseball. #Analysis
Oh, and I could also get used to an Aaron Sanchez with a 5:1 K:BB ratio.
What's the playoff rotation at this point? Stroman, Buehrle and Dickey?
Stroman, Sanchez, Norris?
Stroman, Sanchez, Norris?
In all seriousness, if you're going by performance, Buehrle would have to be the odd man out in a 4-man rotation (which is what we'll probably see). I could, though, see the argument for dropping Hutchison since he'd probably be a useful late-inning reliever.
"Basically, Dombrowsky doesn't have a Relief Pitcher fetish"
Wouldn't know that from the price he paid for Soria.
Wouldn't know that from the price he paid for Soria.
Can't blow it now. The baseball gods are definitely smiling on the home side today.
Ach, Joey is killing us today. He's stranded like 25 runners so far.
Just got home from an afternoon hike...did I miss anything?
Comparing current wOBA to preseason zips projections (100pa min), their offense has similar over and underachievers:
It's not as similar as you're making it look. Chris Davis being .070 below his projection in 408 plate appearances has way more impact than Delmon Young being .056 over his projection in 164 plate appearances. Likewise, I would say Jonathan Schoop being .046 under his projection in 341 plate appearances means more than Steve Pearce being .051 over his projection in 257 plate appearances. Yes, Matt Wieters was swinging a hot bat. His season lasted 26 games. As for Markakis and Cruz... Markakis' career line coming into this season was .292/.360/.441; I don't see how .287/.354/.401 represents any kind of over-performance whatsoever. Cruz' career line was .268/.327/.495; he's hitting .259/.329/.511. I don't see why anyone would find that surprising.
As for the pitching... granted, no one could have had this kind of expectation for Zach Britton. All his previous work was as a starter, so any projections are inapplicable. But lots and lots of teams have turned replacement-level starters into good closers. The Blue Jays come to mind. Darren O'Day has indeed been totally awesome, but O'Day was already an outstanding pitcher. (Over the two previous seasons he had an ERA+ of 187 and an ERA of 2.18 over 137 appearances.) I really don't see anything that the other pitchers have done to be all that surprising. Bud Norris is the sort of thing that happens when you take a competent pitcher away from a terrible team and put an outstanding defense behind him. How is Chris Tillman a surprise to anyone?
It's not as similar as you're making it look. Chris Davis being .070 below his projection in 408 plate appearances has way more impact than Delmon Young being .056 over his projection in 164 plate appearances. Likewise, I would say Jonathan Schoop being .046 under his projection in 341 plate appearances means more than Steve Pearce being .051 over his projection in 257 plate appearances. Yes, Matt Wieters was swinging a hot bat. His season lasted 26 games. As for Markakis and Cruz... Markakis' career line coming into this season was .292/.360/.441; I don't see how .287/.354/.401 represents any kind of over-performance whatsoever. Cruz' career line was .268/.327/.495; he's hitting .259/.329/.511. I don't see why anyone would find that surprising.
As for the pitching... granted, no one could have had this kind of expectation for Zach Britton. All his previous work was as a starter, so any projections are inapplicable. But lots and lots of teams have turned replacement-level starters into good closers. The Blue Jays come to mind. Darren O'Day has indeed been totally awesome, but O'Day was already an outstanding pitcher. (Over the two previous seasons he had an ERA+ of 187 and an ERA of 2.18 over 137 appearances.) I really don't see anything that the other pitchers have done to be all that surprising. Bud Norris is the sort of thing that happens when you take a competent pitcher away from a terrible team and put an outstanding defense behind him. How is Chris Tillman a surprise to anyone?
Now they're loading the bases to get to Francisco. That's how badly he's been hitting today.
Who promptly swings at the first strike he sees, with an entirely predictable result.
I can just about guarantee that Valencia would have done something better with those 6 men on base that Francisco has stranded in the past few innings.
Come on jenkins pull one more rabbit out of that hat.
I left for the gym after the 12th, got home and they're still playing. Joey and Francisco have left all of the runners on today.
Be interesting to know why Kawasaki suddenly moved towards the middle of the diamond on the pitch to Kinsler. I think he must have received instructions from the bench. The actual pitch was a fastball; a middle infielder's response to seeing that sign from the catcher, with a RH batter up, would have been to move to his left. Just as Kawasaki originally did, before suddenly moving back towards the middle of the diamond.
Just got home from an afternoon hike
Probably time for an evening hike and just get back for the 23rd inning finale...
Probably time for an evening hike and just get back for the 23rd inning finale...
How much longer can they leave Jenkins in there? He's the last man in the bullpen, but he can't pitch forever, and he's already thrown 35 pitches. Do the Jays put in a starting pitcher, and then call up a Bison to make an emergency start in his place? Or do they just leave Jenkins in until his arm falls off? Let's hope this question becomes academic after the next half-inning.
In this situation they gotta at least let jenkins go 50. He's stretched out enough times as a starter this hear (and career) that it shouldn't be a huge deal to go that far.
Of course, that only gets him about one more inning.
The good news is that with the day off tomorrow they can use a starter and keep the rest of the SP on regular rest. I guess it would be hutch.
Of course, that only gets him about one more inning.
The good news is that with the day off tomorrow they can use a starter and keep the rest of the SP on regular rest. I guess it would be hutch.
Hutch or Happ on short rest? How about a position player?
The good news is that with the day off tomorrow.
They play the Mariners tomorrow. Without a bullpen.
They play the Mariners tomorrow. Without a bullpen.
There aren't any position players left. If a position player goes to the mound, Dickey will have to play on the field somewhere....
They should be able to do what the Tigers are doing and put in a starter who can skip their side session and pitch an inning or two.
Crap, offday not til thursday, my bad. My guess would still be hutch, though they might run jenkins up to 60-70 pitches before they do that.
With Thole there you can use Dickie. I don't know how much rest he really needs.
Jenkins is going to Buffalo as soon as this game ends, and a reliever will be coming this way.
If they don't score here, that's at least 2 complete games.
Longest game in Jays history: 5 hours, 58 minutes and counting.
Goins and Castellanos playing Rock-Paper-Scissors has definitely been the highlight of the extra innings.
What, you don't like gardening? There should be tomatoes by Labour Day at the pitching mound.
It's too bad that Stroman was already used as a pinch runner in this game, because the Jays could have used him as a pinch-hitter in this inning.
Now we're really in the danger zone. Pretty unbelievable how many runners we've stranded. Multiple guys on base every single inning, seems like.
Poor Francisco. Hits a ball hard and it goes for a routine 9-6 forceout at second.
For the Jay, the LOB column now reads: 42. Pretty incredible.
Colby's been playing better baseball lately, on both sides of the ball.
Chad Jenkins is a boss. He'll be sent back to Buffalo after this game, but does he deserve another look as a potential starter in the future?
Note: of the 61 pitches thrown by Jenkins today, 49 were strikes.
I've crapped all over our bullpen this year, so i'll give them their due tonight:
14.2ip, 12ht, 2xbh, 0r, 5bb (2ibb), 11k
Pretty phenomenal.
We're getting near the point of pulling jenkins, though.
14.2ip, 12ht, 2xbh, 0r, 5bb (2ibb), 11k
Pretty phenomenal.
We're getting near the point of pulling jenkins, though.
Probably time for an evening hike and just get back for the 23rd inning finale...
Went outside to talk to the neighbour about an hour ago. Just came in to see who won. Guess I didn't miss much.
The Tigers have 21 hits today. And their pitchers have issued 13 walks.
And R.A. Dickey is getting loose in the pen!
And R.A. Dickey is getting loose in the pen!
Dickey is reportedly getting ready in the bullpen.
Tough day for Bautista, Francisco and Reimold. A combined 0-for-19.
I'll take credit for posting the first Chad Jenkins reference in this thread.
Wow. Six shutout innings for Jenkins, with 58 strikes among his 73 pitches. More pitches and more strikes than Buehrle today, and fewer hits allowed.
What a bunt.
No kidding. Absolutely perfect.
Wonder why Kinsler was late getting to first?
No kidding. Absolutely perfect.
Wonder why Kinsler was late getting to first?
WOOOOOOOOOOTTTTT! !!!
Back to back Cy Young winners? Whatever.
Back to back Cy Young winners? Whatever.
Wonder why Kinsler was late getting to first?
Runner on first, less than two out?
What a game.
Runner on first, less than two out?
What a game.
You were saying about Cy Young winners? King Felix tomorrow!!!
This was the rarest of three-game series: One where BOTH teams are wondering how on earth they didn't get a sweep.
This was the rarest of three-game series: One where BOTH teams are wondering how on earth they didn't get a sweep.
Price pitched to 2 batters in the 7th.
Porcello pitched to 4 batters in the 19th.
IBB: Martinez, V (by Redmond), Martinez, V (by Jenkins), Bautista (by Chamberlain), Cabrera, Me (by McCoy), Bautista (by McCoy), Rasmus, C (by Nathan), Cabrera, Me (by Porcello).
Porcello pitched to 4 batters in the 19th.
IBB: Martinez, V (by Redmond), Martinez, V (by Jenkins), Bautista (by Chamberlain), Cabrera, Me (by McCoy), Bautista (by McCoy), Rasmus, C (by Nathan), Cabrera, Me (by Porcello).
Runner on first, less than two out?
Think you're right. It's not a given that Reyes would bunt, it was the first pitch so he hadn't given anything away, and he didn't square up early. Under the circumstances, Kinsler had to be in DP position.
Think you're right. It's not a given that Reyes would bunt, it was the first pitch so he hadn't given anything away, and he didn't square up early. Under the circumstances, Kinsler had to be in DP position.
To paraphrase morpheus.....they are starting to believe.
Two great intense playoff series against two contenders this week.....and we split despite being shorthanded offensively.
Now get back already, lind and ee.
Two great intense playoff series against two contenders this week.....and we split despite being shorthanded offensively.
Now get back already, lind and ee.
Rajai Davis with the 0-8... and Nolan Reimold goes 0-7 with 5 Ks. What's that, a Platinum Sombrero?
Mags, I think the term for five K's is "The Olympic Rings."
Melky Cabrera reached base in this game 8 times; just the seventh time that's been done in the History of the World, first time since Rod Carew in 1972.
Well that was a game.
I suppose on the bright side for Jenkins he'll probably avoid the long flight to Seattle where he wasn't going to be the available to pitch anyways. He'll be able to chill out for a few days and rejoin the team back in Chicago.
I suppose on the bright side for Jenkins he'll probably avoid the long flight to Seattle where he wasn't going to be the available to pitch anyways. He'll be able to chill out for a few days and rejoin the team back in Chicago.
I suppose they need to make a move to get Lind on the roster as well.
A QO for Melky is looking more and more likely. Either way, the Jays will miss having him around next year.
Big, big win today for the home team.
Big, big win today for the home team.
the second move should be to Dfa Francisco. He has become an embarrassment imo.
Austin Jackson went 3-4 and drove all 4 runs for the Mariners today. I wonder if the mythology of the ace will take a real beating this summer and fall. Work with me, Blue Jays, and make it happen by laying a good drubbing on King Felix.
He has become an embarrassment imo.
Well, this month he has. He is now 1 for 22 in August. But he did hit well in July (851 OPS) after slumping in June (587), so it may be early to write him off entirely, especially with EE and Lawrie still out.
Is Chad Jenkins guaranteed a spot on next years roster?
Is Todd Redmond guaranteed a spot on next years roster?
I think yes to both.
Is Todd Redmond guaranteed a spot on next years roster?
I think yes to both.
It's really telling that even after a great win like this, certain posters can only talk about the players they want kicked off the team.
Here it's francisco, elsewhere it's buehrle.
Here it's francisco, elsewhere it's buehrle.
The Jays will QO Cabrera BUT I think the Shane Victorino deal will the pentameters of a deal with the Jays. 3 years somewhere in the 39-42M range. The Jays need him.
the players they want kicked off the team
Right, and I say kick Bautista off. Bum. (I didn't hear what happened in the 19th. 0 for 8 I assume) What's that? Oh, never mind.Well, Buehrle's FIP went way down today, which should get those idiots off his case for a few days.
I'm not sure what you do with Francisco. He has no options. When one of Lind and Encarnacion returns, they might as well stick with Francisco, at least rotating him with Goins and Kawasaki. He obviously fell off the wagon today, trying to redeem himself in one swing over and over again with predictable results, but he's already recovered from a slump like this once before and I don't see a clearly better option against RH pitchers at the moment. Getting Encarnacion back might give him a lift - they're close friends, I think? But who's demoting Reimold or Kawasaki before Francisco?
I'm not sure what you do with Francisco. He has no options. When one of Lind and Encarnacion returns, they might as well stick with Francisco, at least rotating him with Goins and Kawasaki. He obviously fell off the wagon today, trying to redeem himself in one swing over and over again with predictable results, but he's already recovered from a slump like this once before and I don't see a clearly better option against RH pitchers at the moment. Getting Encarnacion back might give him a lift - they're close friends, I think? But who's demoting Reimold or Kawasaki before Francisco?
We should dump every player that ever slumps, imo.
Of course, i'd dump every hitter on the team if they just got mowed down for 6ip by chad jenkins.
Of course, i'd dump every hitter on the team if they just got mowed down for 6ip by chad jenkins.
Stroman, Sanchez, Norris?
Doesn't sound crazy to me - I was gonna suggest Redmond or Nolin a couple weeks ago. I agree that what they will probably do is go to the four-man rotation, since Buehrle and Dickey have tenure and Happ is quietly vindicating his contract, and Hutch probably plays up out of the pen like you said more than the other guys.
What they should do is more interesting. They could put Dickey on a 75-pitch leash and do a de facto tandem start with Happ or Hutchison. They could try to schedule Buehrle for game 2 so he pitches a road game in cold weather. They could put Stroman on three days' rest every time (myth of the ace!) and let everything else fall around him...
Doesn't sound crazy to me - I was gonna suggest Redmond or Nolin a couple weeks ago. I agree that what they will probably do is go to the four-man rotation, since Buehrle and Dickey have tenure and Happ is quietly vindicating his contract, and Hutch probably plays up out of the pen like you said more than the other guys.
What they should do is more interesting. They could put Dickey on a 75-pitch leash and do a de facto tandem start with Happ or Hutchison. They could try to schedule Buehrle for game 2 so he pitches a road game in cold weather. They could put Stroman on three days' rest every time (myth of the ace!) and let everything else fall around him...
Gose to Buffalo. An unidentified pitcher coming up. Jenkins is spared!
Francisco is not just in a batting slump.......he is horrible in the field and has a low baseball IQ. The reason to talk about who needs to go is because some will have to as LInd and EE are soon returning.
Assuming Lind is being activated, you still need to send down a 2nd guy.
It's Goins for Lind. That's a better choice. You would think that they would send Jenkins down and bring up a fresh arm.
As for Francisco, he is what he is, which happens to be the best third base option vs. RHP the club has right now. He's a helluva lot better than Garth Iorg, if not as good as Rance Mulliniks.
As for Francisco, he is what he is, which happens to be the best third base option vs. RHP the club has right now. He's a helluva lot better than Garth Iorg, if not as good as Rance Mulliniks.
Exactly. Francisco had to face a bunch of lefties today because the bench was empty and things went as expected.
He is what he is, a poor fielding 3rd basemen who can't hit lefties. He ends up getting more playing time because he's on the right side of the platoons so his flaws become more evident than guys like Tolleson or Valencia but they are all basically the same type of player. Guys with giant variances between LHP/RHP.
He is what he is, a poor fielding 3rd basemen who can't hit lefties. He ends up getting more playing time because he's on the right side of the platoons so his flaws become more evident than guys like Tolleson or Valencia but they are all basically the same type of player. Guys with giant variances between LHP/RHP.
And you want to dump him.....because you don't like having a guy who can post an .800+ops v rhp?
Yeah, for everyone talking about getting rid of Juan Francisco, let's keep some perspective by looking at his career numbers. We probably shouldn't expect him to start hitting again like he did in April and May, but we should at least expect him to perform somewhere around his career norms. In 910 PA versus RHPs, he's hitting .252/.314/.483 for a 116 wRC+, meaning he's been 16% better than the average hitter. He's even better than that this year -- .250/.321/.537 for a 135 wRC+. That's a terrific SLG% given the depressed run-scoring era we're in. I think it was you, Uglyone, who pointed out a few days ago that this is the kind of player that helps win championships -- someone who comes out of nowhere and gives a good performance for cheap. You don't release those types of players.
On that point, FanGraphs has a new feature showing the dollar value each player's been worth to his team for a given season. It's really just another way of describing WAR but it's an interesting way to look at things. Well this year, Juan Francisco's performance has been worth a salary of $6.3M. That's a pretty good deal for someone making the league minimum. (Not quite as good as the deal on Stroman, of course -- he might make in the range of $300,000 this year, and he's already provided $11.7M in value.)
On that point, FanGraphs has a new feature showing the dollar value each player's been worth to his team for a given season. It's really just another way of describing WAR but it's an interesting way to look at things. Well this year, Juan Francisco's performance has been worth a salary of $6.3M. That's a pretty good deal for someone making the league minimum. (Not quite as good as the deal on Stroman, of course -- he might make in the range of $300,000 this year, and he's already provided $11.7M in value.)
Always liked Fangraphs dollar value thing. Not perfect, especially for pitchers (the use FIP instead of ERA iirc and when figuring what a guy was worth _this year_ then ERA is better, but if you are guessing at next year then FIP is better). Still, a lot of fun
Over $20 mil: Bautista $22.4 mil
Over $10 mil: EE $15.7 mil, Cabrera $13.2, Reyes $11.8, Stroman $11.7, Buehrle $11.6, Hutchison $10.7
Over $5 mil: Dickey $9.4, Lawrie $8.6, Gose (!) $6.9, Francisco $6.3, Happ $6.3, Lind $5.8, Navarro just misses at $4.9
For negative it goes Sierra -$2.8, Delabar -$2.1, Glenn -$1.8, Santos -$1.4, Johnson -$1.3, Rogers -$1.1, Mills -$1.0
There are plenty of players between $5 mil and -$1 mil but I think that is plenty to chew on. Bautista clearly is earning his pay, EE is 'only' getting $9 mil this year, Cabrera $8 mil so those guys were great deals. Reyes makes $16 mil this year and might reach it (just $4 mil to go so a hot streak could get him there). Buehrle is at $18 mil and will probably come up short but still provides a lot. Dickey should make it to $12 mil. Happ is easily worth his $5.2 mil deal and I suspect is a lock for his option to be picked up ($6.7 mil).
So some good signs there.The fact AA had the guts to send 2013 All-Star Delabar to AAA along with expensive Santos and let Rogers go were all good signs that he knows to write off guys when they start costing you games regardless of salary. Hopefully he keeps that up.
Over $20 mil: Bautista $22.4 mil
Over $10 mil: EE $15.7 mil, Cabrera $13.2, Reyes $11.8, Stroman $11.7, Buehrle $11.6, Hutchison $10.7
Over $5 mil: Dickey $9.4, Lawrie $8.6, Gose (!) $6.9, Francisco $6.3, Happ $6.3, Lind $5.8, Navarro just misses at $4.9
For negative it goes Sierra -$2.8, Delabar -$2.1, Glenn -$1.8, Santos -$1.4, Johnson -$1.3, Rogers -$1.1, Mills -$1.0
There are plenty of players between $5 mil and -$1 mil but I think that is plenty to chew on. Bautista clearly is earning his pay, EE is 'only' getting $9 mil this year, Cabrera $8 mil so those guys were great deals. Reyes makes $16 mil this year and might reach it (just $4 mil to go so a hot streak could get him there). Buehrle is at $18 mil and will probably come up short but still provides a lot. Dickey should make it to $12 mil. Happ is easily worth his $5.2 mil deal and I suspect is a lock for his option to be picked up ($6.7 mil).
So some good signs there.The fact AA had the guts to send 2013 All-Star Delabar to AAA along with expensive Santos and let Rogers go were all good signs that he knows to write off guys when they start costing you games regardless of salary. Hopefully he keeps that up.
"....everyone talking about getting rid of Juan Francisco...."
Let's not get carried away with the outrage here. Only one person in this entire thread (not me) has talked about getting rid of Francisco, while a bunch of people have galloped to defend him.
Let's not get carried away with the outrage here. Only one person in this entire thread (not me) has talked about getting rid of Francisco, while a bunch of people have galloped to defend him.
And as for the playoff rotation game suggested by Alex, my answer would be "too early to tell". I think that Stroman is the best pitcher on the club, and in a wild-card game, I would want him on the mound. After that, it's quite uncertain. If all five starters are healthy and strong and pitching at their current seasonal norms by year-end, I'd probably go Stroman, Buehrle, Hutchison, Dickey. Sanchez would be first out of the pen after Buehrle, Happ would be first out after Hutchison. I wouldn't hesitate to make the move in either case.
Very inspiring win for the Jays.
Jenkins was outstanding. I hope he recovers from this very long outing. If he had any doubts about his ability to get out ML players, this outing should help. Confidence is a big factor in success.
Jenkins was outstanding. I hope he recovers from this very long outing. If he had any doubts about his ability to get out ML players, this outing should help. Confidence is a big factor in success.
could be wrong, but isn't the update assumption that a 'win' (1 WAR) is worth closer to 6 million now?
Hmm, you've really got me thinking about that "myth of the ace" theory of yours, mike.
Interesting that two contenders actually took a chunk out of their lineup to land aces this deadline - oakland with cespedes and detroit with jackson.
I think it helped make them feel expendable that each team have a bunch of surprising offensive performances this year - crisp, jaso, vogt in oakland and rajai, martinez, and martinez in detroit - but i'm thinking they may have underestimated both the regression for those guys and the value of proven consistent solid hitters like the guys they gave up.
I'm not sure that Aces are a myth, but i have always thought that the overriding importance of dominant pitching is exaggerated...from what i can see offense is overall more important in most years. Its the dominant lineups that build the dynasties IMO.
And i couldn't help but notice that the leadoff man for one of the world series favorites this year is rajai fricken davis, i mean really?
Interesting that two contenders actually took a chunk out of their lineup to land aces this deadline - oakland with cespedes and detroit with jackson.
I think it helped make them feel expendable that each team have a bunch of surprising offensive performances this year - crisp, jaso, vogt in oakland and rajai, martinez, and martinez in detroit - but i'm thinking they may have underestimated both the regression for those guys and the value of proven consistent solid hitters like the guys they gave up.
I'm not sure that Aces are a myth, but i have always thought that the overriding importance of dominant pitching is exaggerated...from what i can see offense is overall more important in most years. Its the dominant lineups that build the dynasties IMO.
And i couldn't help but notice that the leadoff man for one of the world series favorites this year is rajai fricken davis, i mean really?
One thing i like to do is average out each pitcher's ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. I like all four numbers, but don't feel that any of them tell a complete story on their own. I know averaging them out is oversimplified but i'd wager that it's better than any of the numbers on their own.
Here's how our SP look when we combine the four numbers:
Stroman: 6.2ip/gs, 3.06
Buehrle: 6.2ip/gs, 4.01
Dickey: 6.3ip/gs, 4.07
Happ: 5.8ip/gs, 4.02
Hutch: 5.7ip/gs, 4.04
Stroman stands alone, way ahead as the #1.
The other four are very close, but buehrle/dickey stand apart from the other two because they consistently go much deeper into games.
Still, its close enough that i don't think we can make any real call right now for a potential playoff rotation. It's pretty wide open right now.
Here's how our SP look when we combine the four numbers:
Stroman: 6.2ip/gs, 3.06
Buehrle: 6.2ip/gs, 4.01
Dickey: 6.3ip/gs, 4.07
Happ: 5.8ip/gs, 4.02
Hutch: 5.7ip/gs, 4.04
Stroman stands alone, way ahead as the #1.
The other four are very close, but buehrle/dickey stand apart from the other two because they consistently go much deeper into games.
Still, its close enough that i don't think we can make any real call right now for a potential playoff rotation. It's pretty wide open right now.
My own view of the situation is this. The best six or seven pitchers on one's club take on disproportionate significance in the playoffs because of the additional days off. So, the 37% of baseball that is pitching is divided up essentially among six or seven pitchers rather than eleven say, with the top 4 getting most of the work (the first three starters and the closer usually).
Do the events of the 1960s play a role? No, I am not talking about the Vietnam War and Jimi Hendrix. I am talking about the dominant pitching environment and the 4 man rotations which allowed pitchers like Koufax and (particularly) Gibson to be so important in their World Series. If you are not familiar with Bob Gibson's post-season line, take a gander. In 1967 and 1968, he started 3 games in each series, completed all of them and went 5-1. His only loss was Game 7 of the 1968 series and the Cardinals ended up splitting those two series. In those 54 innings, he allowed 8 runs, walked 9, struck out 61 and gave up 2 home runs. It's easy to see how the outsized role of the ace might have emerged from this kind of nationally televised excellence.
With the current four man playoff rotations and the possibility of a quasi-tandem (i.e. early removal of a somewhat struggling starter and bringing on an opposite-handed fifth starter), the modern day starting pitching in the playoffs does not have the same large focus on a single pitcher.
Do the events of the 1960s play a role? No, I am not talking about the Vietnam War and Jimi Hendrix. I am talking about the dominant pitching environment and the 4 man rotations which allowed pitchers like Koufax and (particularly) Gibson to be so important in their World Series. If you are not familiar with Bob Gibson's post-season line, take a gander. In 1967 and 1968, he started 3 games in each series, completed all of them and went 5-1. His only loss was Game 7 of the 1968 series and the Cardinals ended up splitting those two series. In those 54 innings, he allowed 8 runs, walked 9, struck out 61 and gave up 2 home runs. It's easy to see how the outsized role of the ace might have emerged from this kind of nationally televised excellence.
With the current four man playoff rotations and the possibility of a quasi-tandem (i.e. early removal of a somewhat struggling starter and bringing on an opposite-handed fifth starter), the modern day starting pitching in the playoffs does not have the same large focus on a single pitcher.
When you watch Detroit, they have flaws and with Cabrera not being all world this year they have trouble filling them. Their bullpen is bad, they have a bunch of holes in their lineup once you get past the top six (and as mention the leadoff guy isn't that good either).
They are going to need their starters to steal games for them to have success in the playoffs and if I was a fan of them I'd worry about them using Verlander ahead of Scherzer and Price in playoff rotation out of loyalty.
They are going to need their starters to steal games for them to have success in the playoffs and if I was a fan of them I'd worry about them using Verlander ahead of Scherzer and Price in playoff rotation out of loyalty.
My own view of the situation is this. The best six or seven pitchers on
one's club take on disproportionate significance in the playoffs
because of the additional days off. So, the 37% of baseball that is
pitching is divided up essentially among six or seven pitchers rather
than eleven say, with the top 4 getting most of the work (the first
three starters and the closer usually).
Good argument Mike.
Still, I think what you state above pretty much proves the extra value of having an ace in the playoffs -- especially:
with the top 4 getting most of the work (the first three starters and the closer usually).
While I don't think it quite has the value it did in 1968 -- it's still a great advantage and why, for example, I would choose Detroit over Baltimore in a seven game set despite Detroit's obvious weaknesses and poor play of late.
Good argument Mike.
Still, I think what you state above pretty much proves the extra value of having an ace in the playoffs -- especially:
with the top 4 getting most of the work (the first three starters and the closer usually).
While I don't think it quite has the value it did in 1968 -- it's still a great advantage and why, for example, I would choose Detroit over Baltimore in a seven game set despite Detroit's obvious weaknesses and poor play of late.
I think Baltimore is a better team than Detroit. Detroit's top three starters are better than Baltimore's but when you throw in Baltimore's superior defence and far superior top end relief, the run prevention difference is in my view small. Baltimore has the better offence. And as for the ace, there is really one one pitcher in the American League who is head and shoulders above the rest. The Jays are facing him tonight.
If I were a Tiger fan, I'd be worried about my team missing the playoffs with a come-from-ahead swoon. This is an eminently beatable team and an injury to Cabrera or Martinez would make it much more so.
If I were a Tiger fan, I'd be worried about my team missing the playoffs with a come-from-ahead swoon. This is an eminently beatable team and an injury to Cabrera or Martinez would make it much more so.
i really hope someone is doing a separate thread about last night's game -- one of the most memorable in Jays history. So many interesting quirks and story narratives in the statistics from this game. Longest game in Jays history; Cabrera becomes the first major-leaguer in 42 years to reach base safely 8 times in one game; the Jays bullpen posts a remarkable 15.2 shutout innings in one game; Jenkins alone would have qualified for a "quality start" if he had been pitching as a starter instead of a reliever; the Jays coming back from a 5-0 deficit against David Price; and how about Valencia now hitting .706 against Price in 20 plate appearances?
Chad Jenkins should have just solidified the fact that he's the next best option for starts if someone goes down. Alas this organization's use of him historically still puzzles me.
Since 2012 he has 6 starts at the ML level. All of these starts came with zero notice and, by extension, with innings limits. In 5 of those starts he went 5 innings with less than 3 runs allowed. He allowed exactly 3 runs in the other start. In the bullpen he's been even better. All this guy does at the major league level is throw strikes and put up zeros. I know what his minor league stats show, but maybe he's just another David Wells (right down to the misuse early in his career).
Despite an ERA+ of 156 last year and 164 this year he hasn't once been given a legit shot at the starting rotation. Such luminaries as Aaron Laffey, Joel Carreno, Esmil Rogers, Chien-Ming Wang, Ramon Ortiz, and Liam Hendriks have had chances during this time. Hell we played Russian Roulette with Dustin McGowan's arm for 8 starts this year rather than give Jenkins a chance.
Even if you subscribe to the theory that he's only good in the bullpen, he's been shipped back to AAA constantly just so we could keep Esmil Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress in our system. If he hadn't shown anything at the MLB level (i.e. Drabek) then I could understand that line of thinking but he has.
They Jays elected not to demote him after yesterday; ironically the one time in the past 2 years that I would have demoted him. I suspect that it may at least be an acknowledgement of his contribution yesterday so I'm cautiously hopeful that he's finally getting his due.
Since 2012 he has 6 starts at the ML level. All of these starts came with zero notice and, by extension, with innings limits. In 5 of those starts he went 5 innings with less than 3 runs allowed. He allowed exactly 3 runs in the other start. In the bullpen he's been even better. All this guy does at the major league level is throw strikes and put up zeros. I know what his minor league stats show, but maybe he's just another David Wells (right down to the misuse early in his career).
Despite an ERA+ of 156 last year and 164 this year he hasn't once been given a legit shot at the starting rotation. Such luminaries as Aaron Laffey, Joel Carreno, Esmil Rogers, Chien-Ming Wang, Ramon Ortiz, and Liam Hendriks have had chances during this time. Hell we played Russian Roulette with Dustin McGowan's arm for 8 starts this year rather than give Jenkins a chance.
Even if you subscribe to the theory that he's only good in the bullpen, he's been shipped back to AAA constantly just so we could keep Esmil Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress in our system. If he hadn't shown anything at the MLB level (i.e. Drabek) then I could understand that line of thinking but he has.
They Jays elected not to demote him after yesterday; ironically the one time in the past 2 years that I would have demoted him. I suspect that it may at least be an acknowledgement of his contribution yesterday so I'm cautiously hopeful that he's finally getting his due.
i really hope someone is doing a separate thread about last night's game
Well it's certainly a strong early contender for August's Game of the Month...
Well it's certainly a strong early contender for August's Game of the Month...
Agreed that Jenkins has hit the point of 'give him a shot until he blows it'. His very low K rate (4.4 per 9 IP lifetime, 4.7 this year) makes one think it can't last, but his 2.1 BB/9 rate lifetime 1.6 this year and a 1.0 HR/9 0.6 this year suggests he might be able to make it work. He will always be on a tightrope but if it works so be it.
It is funny that in every season in the minors his ERA has been 3.70 or higher, but in 2 of his 3 ML seasons it has been sub 3. He won't be a free agent until after 2019 and is out of options after this year I suspect so I expect him to start 2015 in the pen in the same role as Redmond has had this year. The two of them sure can eat innings and keep runs off the board and both deserve another shot at the rotation but neither will outside of emergencies I suspect with Sanchez next in line and Norris coming on hard in his first AAA start.
It is funny that in every season in the minors his ERA has been 3.70 or higher, but in 2 of his 3 ML seasons it has been sub 3. He won't be a free agent until after 2019 and is out of options after this year I suspect so I expect him to start 2015 in the pen in the same role as Redmond has had this year. The two of them sure can eat innings and keep runs off the board and both deserve another shot at the rotation but neither will outside of emergencies I suspect with Sanchez next in line and Norris coming on hard in his first AAA start.
No Lind or Edwin in the GCL lineup today. Dunedin play a doubleheader at 5.
Agreed that his K rate is a concern (particularly given that the 4.7 this year is entirely out of the bullpen). However there are a few examples of sustained excellence with a low K-rate including a few with Jays ties. Mark Buerhle, Jimmy Key, and Mike Flannagan all had K rates of around 5 for their lengthy careers. Bill Gullickson was about 4.5 and had some success. Brad Radke (in the 5's) might also be a decent comparison although his K rate in the minors was much better.
Given the performance of Stroman, Norris, and Hutchinson (and maybe Sanchez)I'd be surprised if Jenkins gets a shot to start any time soon (last year was our chance to see what he had). But I do think that there is a possibility that he has success elsewhere if the Jays can't find use for him.
Given the performance of Stroman, Norris, and Hutchinson (and maybe Sanchez)I'd be surprised if Jenkins gets a shot to start any time soon (last year was our chance to see what he had). But I do think that there is a possibility that he has success elsewhere if the Jays can't find use for him.
In the "it was 20 years ago today" dept., this is the anniversary of the disastrous lockout of 1994. I know long-time fans of the game who never got over the work stoppage with no purpose whatsoever. If ever there was a lose-lose, that was it.
Everyone always talks about the Expos being damaged by the lockout but I'd argue the Blue Jays were hit fairly hard as well. In 1994 we had the best payroll in baseball and were averaging around 4 million fans per season. The combination of the effects the strike had on attendance, its failure to obtain financial competitive balance, and the divisional realignment that was unrelated to the strike but happened in 1994 combined to hurt the Jays as bad as any franchise in baseball.
Mike, i have to disagree with you - detroit is a much better offensive team than baltimore.
Detroit is one of the elite offenses, baltimore is mediocre (7th AL in runs and wrc+).
People seem to think the Os have better hitters than they do. Their best hitter this year is nelson cruz, and he'd be the 4th or 5th best in the top offebsive teams.
DH Pearce 257pa, .858ops, 140wrc+ / Young 168pa, .820ops, 130wrc+
LF Cruz 481pa, .843ops, 130wrc+ / Lough 155pa, .611ops, 71wrc+
CF Jones 507pa, .789ops, 117wrc+
RF Markakis 539pa, .763ops, 114wrc+
3B Machado 352pa, .751ops, 108wrc+
SS Hardy 433pa, .703ops, 94wrc+
1B Davis 412pa, .694ops, 90wrc+
C Joseph 179pa, .710ops, 95wrc+ / Hundley 166pa, .608ops, 69wrc+
2B Schoop 345pa, .580ops, 59wrc+ / Flaherty 213pa, .592ops, 62wrc+
That doesn't really match what detroit trots out there i don't think:
DH Martinez 443pa, .942ops, 152wrc+
1B Cabrera 492pa, .872ops, 137wrc+
LF Martinez 287pa, .910ops, 149wrc+ / Kelly 133pa, .620ops, 74wrc+
RF Hunter 400pa, .756ops, 107wrc+
2B Kinsler 515pa, .754ops, 107wrc+
CF Davis 351pa, .742ops, 105wrc+ / Carrera 14pa, .845ops, 144wrc+
3B Castellanos 393pa, .714ops, 95wrc+
C Avila 333pa, .685ops, 92wrc+ / Holaday 115pa, .572ops, 58wrc+
SS Suarez 178pa, .699ops, 94wrc+ / Romine 195pa, .540ops, 49wrc+
Detroit has more thunder at the top, and aren't carrying a hole like the orioles are st 2B, either.
Detroit is one of the elite offenses, baltimore is mediocre (7th AL in runs and wrc+).
People seem to think the Os have better hitters than they do. Their best hitter this year is nelson cruz, and he'd be the 4th or 5th best in the top offebsive teams.
DH Pearce 257pa, .858ops, 140wrc+ / Young 168pa, .820ops, 130wrc+
LF Cruz 481pa, .843ops, 130wrc+ / Lough 155pa, .611ops, 71wrc+
CF Jones 507pa, .789ops, 117wrc+
RF Markakis 539pa, .763ops, 114wrc+
3B Machado 352pa, .751ops, 108wrc+
SS Hardy 433pa, .703ops, 94wrc+
1B Davis 412pa, .694ops, 90wrc+
C Joseph 179pa, .710ops, 95wrc+ / Hundley 166pa, .608ops, 69wrc+
2B Schoop 345pa, .580ops, 59wrc+ / Flaherty 213pa, .592ops, 62wrc+
That doesn't really match what detroit trots out there i don't think:
DH Martinez 443pa, .942ops, 152wrc+
1B Cabrera 492pa, .872ops, 137wrc+
LF Martinez 287pa, .910ops, 149wrc+ / Kelly 133pa, .620ops, 74wrc+
RF Hunter 400pa, .756ops, 107wrc+
2B Kinsler 515pa, .754ops, 107wrc+
CF Davis 351pa, .742ops, 105wrc+ / Carrera 14pa, .845ops, 144wrc+
3B Castellanos 393pa, .714ops, 95wrc+
C Avila 333pa, .685ops, 92wrc+ / Holaday 115pa, .572ops, 58wrc+
SS Suarez 178pa, .699ops, 94wrc+ / Romine 195pa, .540ops, 49wrc+
Detroit has more thunder at the top, and aren't carrying a hole like the orioles are st 2B, either.
When Jenkins has started, his major league opposition line is .271/.339/.459. This is consistent with his minor league record. As a reliever, the line is .246/.285/.391 with much better W/K numbers. It is normal for pitchers to do better in relief. A somewhat comparable pitcher would be Dennis Lamp. Jenkins will have to do a little better job of suppressing the long ball to get to where Lamp was (HR rates were much lower in Lamp's time than now). Lamp was a passable starter for a few years with a poor K rate and then had a long career in the pen. Jenkins is behind Redmond in the list of players likely to get an opportunity to start, and frankly if he has a career as long as Lamp's in the pen, that would be fine.
I have never seen numbers to refute or corroborate this, but my gut tells me that run-scoring in extra innings is at a lower rate than innings 1 to 9. Or maybe this is an illusion brought on by the rare really long games where both teams just put up zeroes inning after inning.
All of this is to say that for some reason, I can see success from the likes of Jenkins in extra innings that I'm not sure that I could envision were he a starter. This position seems nonsensical. I concede that. And maybe my theory about suppressed run-scoring in extras is entirely without foundation. And maybe Jenkins would be a decent starter. But I can't see it despite not being able to argue intelligently against it (other than to cite his low K rate).
Detroit has played as a pretty severe hitter's park (108) this year and Baltimore as a severe pitcher's park (93) this year. Detroit has scored more runs, but when you adjust for the park, it would be very, very close. And when you subtract Austin Jackson, Baltimore has the edge. If you expect Rajai Davis and Carrera to keep being above sea level given their records, good luck to you.
Well pearce, young, and joseph won't keep up their pace either, most likely.
And wrc+ adjusts for park.
And wrc+ adjusts for park.
I agree w you Mike that Baltimore is the better team. I think Detroit is better equipped for the playoffs.
Chuck, there is a good reason why it is easier to succeed in extra innings as compared with starting a game. At the outset of the game, the manager sets the lineup to meet weaknesses of the pitcher and often (hopefully) has a few bullets in reserve for key moments. In extra innings, managers have usually used all their bullets and simply have to go with the line-up that is there which may include defensive substitutions.
In Jenkins' case, his weakness is left-handed hitters. For his career, LHHs have gone .266/.323/.441 while RHHs have gone .242/.281/.382. Used mostly in relief, he has faced more RHBs than LHBs. Not so for his starting appearances.
In Jenkins' case, his weakness is left-handed hitters. For his career, LHHs have gone .266/.323/.441 while RHHs have gone .242/.281/.382. Used mostly in relief, he has faced more RHBs than LHBs. Not so for his starting appearances.
Although we may never know how good they are in the playoffs because Detroit may not actually be in them this year.
I agree w you Mike that Baltimore is the better team. I think Detroit is better equipped for the playoffs.
Yes, but don't forget the top end of the bullpens. I think that it would be a close match, but I think that there's a pretty decent chance that the Tigers don't make the playoffs at all.
Yes, but don't forget the top end of the bullpens. I think that it would be a close match, but I think that there's a pretty decent chance that the Tigers don't make the playoffs at all.
I can see success from the likes of Jenkins in extra innings that I'm not sure that I could envision were he a starter.
If the Jays were to move to a 9 or 10 man bullpen, Jenkins could fill the role of extra innings specialist...SABR's look at defense. Not pretty for the Blue Jays.
The 1994 strike was a mess but for the Jays it was more a divider. The Jays still spent a lot - see the trade for David Cone in spring 1995, signing Roger Clemens to a then record deal before 1997 and the like. The biggest killer was how Gillick emptied the minors and how Ash was distrustful of prospects. At least that is how it felt at the time.
Checking BR I see the Jays had 6 guys on the pre-1994 top 100 list, and 6 on the post-1994 list.
Common on both: Alex Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Jose Silva (was #10 in MLB at one point)
On just one list: Delgado, DJ Boston, Paul Spoljaric, Shannon Stewart, Sandy Martinez, Chris Carpenter
Silva would pitch just 2 innings for the Jays and ended with an 84 ERA+. Boston never made it to the majors, Sandy Martinez was no more than a 1/2 decent backup catcher, Spoljaric a decent guy in the pen, then a batch of all-stars in Gonzo, Green, Delgado, Stewart, and Carpenter.
Looking back the killer was that the Jays just couldn't develop their kids what-so-ever back then. Carpenter K'd one more per 9 IP in St Louis and walked 1 fewer per 9 IP than he did here. Green had a 117 OPS+ here, 130 in LA (121 for all of post-Toronto). Delgado was a star who the Jays couldn't figure out where to play for a few years (tried CA for years, then LF before finally going to first base thus losing lots of development time). Stewart had 3 years of cups of coffee before getting a shot as did Vernon Wells later on. The Jays back then really seemed to waste a lot of years of options for no reason. The Jays of the late 90's/early 00's could've been a powerhouse but instead was a mouse. Lets hope AA does better.
Checking BR I see the Jays had 6 guys on the pre-1994 top 100 list, and 6 on the post-1994 list.
Common on both: Alex Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Jose Silva (was #10 in MLB at one point)
On just one list: Delgado, DJ Boston, Paul Spoljaric, Shannon Stewart, Sandy Martinez, Chris Carpenter
Silva would pitch just 2 innings for the Jays and ended with an 84 ERA+. Boston never made it to the majors, Sandy Martinez was no more than a 1/2 decent backup catcher, Spoljaric a decent guy in the pen, then a batch of all-stars in Gonzo, Green, Delgado, Stewart, and Carpenter.
Looking back the killer was that the Jays just couldn't develop their kids what-so-ever back then. Carpenter K'd one more per 9 IP in St Louis and walked 1 fewer per 9 IP than he did here. Green had a 117 OPS+ here, 130 in LA (121 for all of post-Toronto). Delgado was a star who the Jays couldn't figure out where to play for a few years (tried CA for years, then LF before finally going to first base thus losing lots of development time). Stewart had 3 years of cups of coffee before getting a shot as did Vernon Wells later on. The Jays back then really seemed to waste a lot of years of options for no reason. The Jays of the late 90's/early 00's could've been a powerhouse but instead was a mouse. Lets hope AA does better.
Detroit has scored more runs, but when you adjust for the park, it would be very, very close.
It's the ball parks. Camden Yards is playing as a pitcher's park this year; meanwhile the line drives are just flying all around Comerica (the Tigers are also giving up lots of runs at home.) When you get these teams on the road, Baltimore (4.86 runs per game) definitely has the better offense (Detroit has scored 4.53 runs per game on the road.)
It's the ball parks. Camden Yards is playing as a pitcher's park this year; meanwhile the line drives are just flying all around Comerica (the Tigers are also giving up lots of runs at home.) When you get these teams on the road, Baltimore (4.86 runs per game) definitely has the better offense (Detroit has scored 4.53 runs per game on the road.)
I agree with John N that the Jays could have been better in the late 90s & 00s. The players you mentioned, plus Woody Williams & M Young. Roger Clemons also played 3 years for us. His replacement David Wells was good too. Too bad the Wells trade did not work out.
What about the catchers? I guess they were just OK, journeymen.
This years team is good or OK. A high 80s win or maybe a low 90s win team. This should generate favorable revenues and eliminate huge disappointment amounts. Next years team should also be about the same, depending on personnel changes and performance IMO.
The year after that...we get younger IMO. I have not thought about it much but 2016 will most likely have over 50% different players.
What about the catchers? I guess they were just OK, journeymen.
This years team is good or OK. A high 80s win or maybe a low 90s win team. This should generate favorable revenues and eliminate huge disappointment amounts. Next years team should also be about the same, depending on personnel changes and performance IMO.
The year after that...we get younger IMO. I have not thought about it much but 2016 will most likely have over 50% different players.