WE GOT THIS!!! GO JAYS GO
We are sweeping the birds!!!

68-43 is not right, as that would be a nine-game lead. 63-48 is what you're shooting for. Either way, how are the Orioles 15 games over?

How quickly things change - Friday morning this looked like a showdown for 1st, now it's for the survival of the Jays division title hopes.
Lawrie back so quickly, without facing any of the veteran AAA pitching smacks of desperation - hope it works out - Orioles are playing some smart baseball, good pitching & excellent defense - really a joy to watch - I used to think Buck Showalter was overrated, but he has really impressed me in this Baltimore stint - An Orioles sweep and the division is likely lost for the jays - this is where the rubber hits the road

Either way, how are the Orioles 15 games over?

One-run games. It's not the Orioles have been unusually lucky in close games (they've gone 23-17). It's simply that they've played a whole bunch of them: twice as many as Toronto (9-10.)

68-43 is not right, as that would be a nine-game lead.

63-48. Noted and corrected.

In other news, John Lott of The National Post has an interesting story on the slumping Colby Rasmus.

Papa Rausmus is tiresome.

Biggest series in years. Hopefully they man up a bit after dissappointing in houston.


SPs

LHP M.Buehrle (35): 22gs, 6.5ip/gs, 5.2k/9, 2.4bb/9, 0.7hr/9, 3.11era, 3.82fip, 4.32xfip, 4.54siera
RHP B.Norris (29): 18gs, 6.1ip/gs, 6.6k/9, 2.9bb/9, 1.0hr/9, 3.69era, 4.36fip, 4.29xfip, 4.20siera



Lineups


1. SS J.Reyes (31): 437pa, 20/21sb, 6.9bb%, 11.2k%, .302babip, .280/.330/.409/.739, 104wrc+, -2.0df, 1.9war
1. RF N.Markakis (30): 510pa, 4/6sb, 8.4bb% 10.8k%, .308babip, .287/.349/.404/.753, 110wrc+, -3.3df, 1.7war

2. LF M.Cabrera (29): 500pa, 5/7sb, 7.0bb%, 11.0k%, .326babip, .309/.359/.475/.834, 130wrc+, -13.3df, 2.0war
2. 3B M.Machado (22): 323pa, 2/2sb, 5.9bb%, 19.2k%, .311babip, .274/.318/.428/.736, 105wrc+, 6.8df, 2.1war

3. RF J.Bautista (33): 465pa, 5/6sb, 15.9bb%, 14.8k%, .306babip, .293/.412/.515/.927, 155wrc+, -8.5df, 3.8war
3. CF A.Jones (29): 481pa, 6/7sb, 2.7bb%, 17.9k%, .305babip, .284/.310/.477/.787, 115wrc+, 5.1df, 3.7war

4. C D.Navarro (30): 363pa, 1/1sb, 5.8bb%, 12.9k%, .294babip, .273/.314/.389/.703, 93wrc+, 1.9df, 0.8war
4. DH D.Young (28): 150pa, 0/0sb, 2.7bb%, 20.7k%, .385babip, .319/.347/.458/.805, 125wrc+, -2.8df, 0.6war

5. 1B J.Francisco (27): 269pa, 0/2sb, 8.6bb%, 36.4k%, .326babip, .241/.312/.510/.822, 124wrc+, -2.6df, 1.4war
5. LF N.Cruz (34): 465pa, 3/7sb, 9.0bb%, 20.4k%, .267babip, .259/.329/.513/.842, 129wrc+, -11.4df, 2.0war

6. 3B B.Lawrie (24): 281pa, 0/0sb, 5.7bb%, 17.4k%, .256babip, .244/.299/.419/.718, 97wrc+, 4.8df, 1.5war
6. SS J.Hardy (31): 418pa, 0/0sb, 4.1bb%, 18.4k%, .334babip, .279/.311/.368/.679, 88wrc+, 14.1df, 1.9war

7. DH C.Rasmus (27): 278pa, 3/3sb, 7.6bb%, 32.4k%, .276babip, .219/.281/.441/.722, 97wrc+, -5.3df, 0.4war
7. 1B C.Davis (28): 387pa, 2/3sb, 12.4bb%, 33.3k%, .253babip, .195/.306/.380/.686, 88wrc+, -6.4df, 0.0war

8. 2B M.Kawasaki (33): 152pa, 0/0sb, 5.9bb%, 20.4k%, .352babip, .274/.322/.319/.641, 77wrc+, -0.3df, 0.1war
8. C C.Joseph (28): 163pa, 0/0sb, 6.7bb%, 21.5k%, .248babip, .218/.283/.373/.656, 81wrc+, 7.5df, 0.6war

9. CF A.Gose (23): 187pa, 12/16sb, 11.2bb%, 21.4k%, .322babip, .241/.344/.285/.629, 81wrc+, 8.3df, 1.2war
9. 2B J.Schoop (22): 329pa, 0/0sb, 2.7bb%, 23.1k%, .252babip, .210/.248/.319/.567, 56wrc+, 6.7df, 0.2war

This series is very dependant on many things, most important of all that is just having some luck. They get a little bit of luck and play to their abilities and winning should be easy.

Let's hope Buehrle finishes the season as he started it (10-1).

Particularly with Buehrle on the mound, who gets a lot of ground balls, I'd have gone with Rasmus in CF and Reimold as DH. Reimold has no significant platoon differential, and in fact has a slightly higher career OPS vs righties. Rather have his bat in there instead of Gose.

Hilarious walkup music for lawrie. Too perfect.

My impression is that the O's play tighter baseball than the Jays. Francisco's dropping an easy popup in foul ground with two on and two out did nothing to dispel that impression (although Buehrle picked up him nicely, getting Machado to fly out).

The pressure is definitely on the Jays in this series.

Lawrie injured again - that didn't take long. Again with Valencia in against a righty. Could have moved Kawasaki to 3rd and put Goins in at 2nd. Sigh. Now two Oriole Hr's - time to watch the tennis match, I think.

Buehrle has nothing tonight.

Better yank him before its too late....if its not too late already.

It's looking like batting practice up there.

I wonder if the Jays could have gotten Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree for Buehrle at the deadline. Seems like a Sabean type of move.

I don't know what the Jays were thinking holding on to Buehrle after the first half he had. Maybe they tried to move on and got no takers, but I find that hard to believe when someone was willing to trade prospects for the right to pay Jake Peavy $15M a year.

Demoralizing stuff here.

Haven't seen much of the Jays' elite offense in recent days.

Inevitable result of not giving your players a vote of confidence at the deadline. Then you rush Lawrie back to appease an angry fan base and you get this.

Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree for Buehrle at the deadline

You can try that if you don't mind telling the other 24 guys in the clubhouse that you're now giving up. While you actually have a spot in the post-season. You may suddenly find your best players lined up outside your door asking to be traded.

Wow did we need that.

Now does gibby try and squeeze another inning out of buehrle?

Can't see how he can afford to.

We really really really need a clean inning here.

Really.

Come on Sanchez make me a believer.

Inevitable result of not giving your players a vote of confidence at the deadline.

Are you not too liberally inferring cause and effect? Sometimes stuff just happens.

A.A.'s mistake in bringing up Lawrie, might cost the Team big time. There's a reason Toronto struggles why Baltimore plays well. Starting pitching that can be dependable. With Toronto's staff you never know how long they're in the game.

Eugenie Bouchard appears just minutes away from losing her match. To someone named Rogers.

...Sometimes stuff just happens.

Just happens too often at the wrong time.

Best inning yet from sanchez, albeit up against some struggling hitters. Still, lots of swinging strikes that time.

Too bad the one mistake he threw in the zone got hammered.

And of course, here come Sanchez' control issues.

0-3 becomes 0-4 becomes...?
Anyone with any kind of Roger's anything should cancel it and switch to anyone/anywhere/anything else.

I have no idea why reimold isn't hitting for colby here.

Magpie: "You can try that if you don't mind telling the other 24 guys in the clubhouse that you're now giving up. While you actually have a spot in the post-season. You may suddenly find your best players lined up outside your door asking to be traded."

If Beane made a trade like that, people would say how much of a genius he was for trading a league average junk baller at the peak of his value. Buehrle with an ERA in the high-2.00's was going to regress badly. Keep him, and this is what happens. His ERA will end up where it normally is by the end of the season and it will hurt the team over the next two months.

I won't deny that players would have been upset if they made a move like that, but so what? Heck, the Jays could have spun some of what they got in a trade like that for short-term help as well.

I just wanted to sell high on Buehrle to avoid the $19M tag next season, because if Rogers isn't adding payroll now, they certainly won't in the off-season. Flexibility would have been nice.

but so what?

Seriously?

The guys in the Oakland clubhouse have reason to believe that Billy Beane knows what he's doing, and has a plan that might allow them to play in the post-season some day. There's very little reason for Toronto's players to have the same kind of conviction. Pulling the plug when you're actually in a playoff position won't convince them.

Reimold batting for Rasmus or Kawasaki? I think I agree - I'd rather he hit for Rasmus. The Orioles pen is left-handed, it's easier to keep Reimold in the game if he replaces Rasmus. Instead we get this kind of defensive juggling.

Not to mention, Kawasaki has actually hit southpaws much better than Rasmus this season, small sample sizes notwithstanding.

I came to this game late, and have some fine music playing.  It's working for me.

Buehrle didn't have it today.  It happens.  I hope that Lawrie is able to play tomorrow.  It would be a real shame if he and Tolleson were not in the lineup for the lefty. 

His ERA will end up where it normally is by the end of the season and it will hurt the team over the next two months.

Well, you're pushing the argument too far. This is like saying the next spin of the roulette wheel will be red because the last one was black. Buehrle's not going to have a bunch of bad starts to make up for all the good/lucky ones he had early on. That's not what we should expect, anyway. What we should expect is that his results for the remainder of the season will be roughly similar to his career norms (a bit worse to account for aging). He should still finish the year with better numbers than we ever could've expected from him at the start of the year.

So keep Buehrle just to watch him bump his ERA back to the 4.00's by the end of the year and pay him $19M next year to do the same just so the veterans' feelings won't get hurt?

How much of a drop-off would there be from Buehrle to Escobar over a two month span where Buehrle is expected to regress to his mean? Or maybe they flip one of the prospects for a vet like Hammel (for example). The options and flexibility would have been worth it, IMO.

Watching Buehrle throw BP for the rest of the season will not be fun.

TangledUpinBlue, I'm not saying Buehrle's ERA will end up in the 4.00's to make up for his good starts/luck in the 1st half necessarily, just that he's due for a regression, and given his xFIP (4.32 prior to tonight) and the fact that he is going to get a spoonful of Baltimore, Tampa, New York, etc, over the next two months, I think it's fair to say his numbers will resemble his career numbers by the end of the season.

If he went to the NL in a trade with the Giants (for example), I'd expect his numbers to look way better.

Buehrle's career ERA+ is 118.  His ERA+ over the last 6 years (prior to this start) have been 122, 100, 121, 109, 100, 131.  You should probably expect an ERA+ of about 110 over the next year and a bit.  That's good.

I think SK is right that that's a trade you should make if you think it'll help the team. But (a) it's also not very realistic so there's no use getting worked up about it. The Billy Beane hypothetical is apt I think because you probably do have to be a legend like Beane to be able to pull it off. And (b) as a league-average innings-eating starter, Buehrle has a lot of value to a contending team so I'm not sure it'd be easy to trade him and improve the Jays anyway. With the Jays' SP depth, you'd probably have to get another pitcher back in return, but then why would a contending team (i.e., the other team) bother with such a trade?

just that he's due for a regression, and given his xFIP (4.32 prior to tonight)

Yeah, OK -- this is certainly true.

Just depressing all around tonight.

If the losing keeps up, there might still be time to trade Buehrle this year anyway.

When you are throwing batting practise stuff, don't be surprised when someone hits it.

Be good hutch, be good.

Well, the trade deadline performance has worked out about as well as can be expected.

The Jays fooled me once earlier this year, shame on them. But now that they've fooled me twice, shame on me.

12 hits (1-2B, 1-HR) and 4 BB and only 3 runs scored is a disgrace for this Team, especially after hitting into 3 DPs.

There's a chance A.A's going to get told to break it down this Offseason, or he might get fired instead, if they can't make the Postseason.

Wow, just imagine if the Jays were not in a playoff spot what it'd be like around here...

Right now the Jays still have the final playoff spot in the AL.  Just 1/2 a game up on KC, 1 game on NY and 1 1/2 on Seattle with Cleveland just 2 1/2 out.  Yeah, that is one heck of a battle but right now the Jays still hold the lead. 

Baseball Prospectus lists the odds of making the playoffs at 38.7% pre today, probably still higher than most other clubs though.  The Yankees were next (after removing the big 4) at 23.9%.  The Jays still have a positive run difference.  Based on runs for/against the Jays should just be 1 game back of Baltimore, 3 up on Tampa, 6 up on NY.  Of course, by that measure Seattle should have the 2nd wild card, up 4 games on the Jays.

Basically, lets try to enjoy the fact we are seeing meaningful baseball in August for the first time in many, many years and just the 2nd time since 1993.  Yeah, this is frustrating when they are soooo close but it sure beats wondering when they'll dump anyone making more than the ML minimum.

As to 'giving up'... the Yankees just lost a pitcher on waivers - a LOOGY Matt Thornton who has a 2.55 ERA/2.73 FIP but was cut to save $3.5 mil next year (he makes the same this year).  That sends a really bad message to the team, that the Yankees are looking to cut salary while in the middle of a playoff race.  The Jays may not be willing to add, but at least we haven't seen anything like this (loosing a guy for payroll relief).

That's an odd way of looking at it, John.  The Yankees have added McCarthy,  Prado and Drew at the deadline.  On balance, they have clearly added talent and salary.  Whether it will be enough is another question, but they definitely have added rather than stood pat.  The Jays have added Valencia, but it's not quite the same thing.

The only reason I have any confidence in this team making the playoffs is how bad the rest of the non-Baltimore division is. I just feel like we should have taken a run at the division (and guarantee home playoff baseball) rather than try to squeak into a wild card.

I understand the frustration brewing from a losing streak and AA not doing anything but who here would want the Jays to have done a comparable deal to what the A's and the Tigers did for Lester and Price?

The Yankees deals were nice little upgrades, but nothing major, it isn't too difficult to make the case that the Reimold add was better than any of those deals.

Who knows -- maybe it was the Jays who put the waiver claim in on Hanley. I would the Jays to make an August deal, but I'd rather they just start winning series.

So the Yankees are going for it by adding...
Brandon McCarthy - 87 ERA+ starter who had an 84 last year, lifetime 101.
Stephen Drew - hitting 177/258/327 62 OPS+ in 163 PA
Martin Prado - hitting 270/317/375 92 OPS+ in 454 PA (replaced Yangervis Solarte who had a 101 OPS+ but was slumping badly when traded)

The Jays are not going for it, shown by adding...
Danny Valencia - 288/333/392 99 OPS+ in 135 PA
Nolan Reimold - lifetime 106 OPS+, 175 OPS+ in 28 PA so far here

Y'know, I think I prefer the Jays additions.  McCarthy could be very good (and has been for the Yankees), but he'd be behind Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman in the rotation for sure, and maybe behind Happ and Hutchison too unless he shows his old form again.  Drew has flopped horribly this year, might be better than Goins on offense but is behind on defense and doesn't want to play at 2B.  Prado ... I really don't get the love for him over Valencia.

The Yankee trades will help as their rotation is a disaster (of the 5 guys with 10+ starts just 2 are on the active roster).  Geez... looking deeper I see 5 starters on the DL with 11 different guys starting this year for them.  Ouch.  Jays are up to 8 but just one on the DL (Morrow) with #8 being traded (Hendriks) and #6 being in the pen now (McGowan).

"I understand the frustration brewing from a losing streak and AA not doing anything but who here would want the Jays to have done a comparable deal to what the A's and the Tigers did for Lester and Price?"

IMO, we most definitely should have beat that Price package. Would have made one of the world series favorites this year and next.

Yanks had a weird deadline, that's for sure.

IN: SP McCarthy 23gs, 6.1ip/gs, 4.37era, 3.59fip
OUT: RP Thornton 46gms, 24.2ip, 2.55era, 2.73fip

IN: 3B Headley 365pa, 88wrc+, +9.5df
OUT: 3B Solarte 353pa, 106wrc+, -0.5df

IN: 2B Drew 163pa, 57wrc+, +5.9df
OUT: 2B Roberts 348pa, 81wrc+, -4.4df

IN: UT Prado 454pa, 91wrc+, +2.2df
OUT: UT Johnson 227pa, 88wrc+, +0.7df

They've definitely shored up their defense, at least.

McCarthy was definitely a nice pickup for their battered rotation, too.

John, you're not being reasonable.  Reimold is a good low-cost addition but he's an injury-addled outfielder (which is why he is low-cost).  Valencia is a good low-cost addition (although Kratz and Hendriks had value).   The Yankees took on salary and talent (measuring Drew's contribution by his 2014 slash line isn't a great idea- he's a competent shortstop with a multi-year record of decent hitting and you've got to know that the .216 BABIP and 22% LD rate he has in 2014 won't continue).  I am not saying that the Yankees did a better job, but they did take on both salary and talent (albeit not as much salary as they sometimes have). 

To be clear, I don't have any difficulty with the decision to stay out of the deadline market.  It is the communication that has been poor, beginning with Anthopoulos' declaration in the off-season that he was looking at acquiring two free agent starting pitchers, and continuing on with the assertion that money could be spent if the team was competitive as the deadline approached. The impression throughout that Anthopoulos has given is the purse strings are open.  A little more forthrightness would probably have helped.

"Jays are up to 8 but just one on the DL (Morrow) with #8 being traded (Hendriks) and #6 being in the pen now (McGowan)."

What a refreshing change from recent years (knock on wood):

2014: 8 SP
2013: 13
2012: 12
2011: 12
2010: 11
2009: 12

Of course, the Yankees added some players in the off-season as well. The Jays needed a SP, second baseman, and a good RH bat in the off-season, but didn't address those needs. The Yankees added McCann, Ellsbury, Tanaka, and some role players. Tanaka could prove to be a colossal bust, but he and the other players added have helped the Yankees stay competitive despite a slew of injuries.

The Jays 2015 budget likely would not have had space for Price. The Jays need more good, young, cheap players, not more $20m ones.

Brett Lawrie has his MRI on his back(?) today. (I know he's getting an MRI, and I know he hurt his back. There might not be a relationship there.) We should know the results before game time. Without any fresher information, Lind and Encarnacion are about 10 days to 2 weeks away. No help coming from there any time soon.

Toronto is 5 games behind Baltimore while New York is 6 GBL. Toronto hold the final Wild Card berth by one-half game over Kansas City and 8 games behind Los Angeles in the other WC berth. Toronto leads New York and Seattle by 1 game in the WC standings and leads Cleveland by 2.5 games.

With 48 games left to play, Toronto has 8 games remaining with Baltimore (division). They has 7 games remaining with Seattle (wild card). They have 7 games remaining with New York (wild card). Toronto does not play Kansas City (3-4) or Cleveland (4-2)again, lacking control over their postseason berth with these teams, so they need help. Toronto is on an 0 for 4 slide that show little sign of ending.

The Starting Pitching is not good enough. The Bullpen is not good enough. The Offense is not good enough. The Defense is not good enough. A.A. needs to do many things, but one would be nice. With his restrictions, I don't know if A.A. can do anything, or that he knows how to do something we really need.

Zips rest of season projections for those yanks:

3B Headley: 176pa, 107wrc+, +5.7df
3B Solarte: 169pa, 95wrc+, +3.3df

UT Prado: 204pa, 96wrc+, +1.3df
UT Johnson: 137pa, 96wrc+, -1.1df

2B Drew: 119pa, 81wrc+, +1.8df
2B Roberts: 96pa, 83wrc+, -0.9df

SP McCarthy: 49.0ip, 4.77era, 4.26fip
RP Thornton: 13.0ip, 3.63era, 3.53fip

A bit of an upgrade all around.



For the jays:

UT Valencia: 120pa, 98wrc+, -0.4df
OF Reimold: 54pa, 97wrc+, -1.4df

"The Yankees added McCann, Ellsbury, Tanaka, and some role players. "

Well, to be fair, that is arguable the worst offseason performance in baseball. That's almost $400m worth of contract handed out to get only about 2war better than what the jays got from adding navarro, francisco, and stroman this year.

Yeah, I was a bit strong there about how the guys added are not terribly valuable.  The pitcher, McCarthy, has been great so far and his history (outside of 2013/14) suggests it could be for real.  However, the net cost is high in dollars and there is a budget limit at some point one would think.

Drew = $10.1 mil, then free agent
Prado = $11 mil each of this year, 2015 and 2016
McCarthy = $10.25 mil, then free agent

So 2 pure rentals and a lot of money for a guy at 3B who I don't see having more value than Valencia.

who I don't see having more value than Valencia.

If Gibbons insists on playing Valencia against RHP, he's going to have negative value.

Aside: Anyone notice what JPA has been up to? His slash line since he's been back: 262/338/607. Now, I obviously don't think this is sustainable nor do I believe that he'll ever hit enough to warrant being a starting 1B or DH. But he does seem to have breathed a little life into his flagging career. Mike G is always quick to point out that hitters tend to improve once unburdened of defensive responsibilities. And maybe there's a little of that at play here with JPA's catching gear apparently in a dumpster somewhere.

Or it could just be small sample size craziness.

For JPA I'd say small sample size.  Skip yesterdays game and his comeback at 1B/DH is 232/306/536.  He has played 17 games since being called up and in 15 he had 0 or 1 hit, in 2 he was 'wow' 4-5 vs NYY with 7 RBI 2 HR and 3-5 yesterday.  His first 11 games (pre NYY game) he had a 630 OPS, over the past 6 games he has a 1473 OPS.  I suspect though we'll see him work his way down to his normal soon enough which is useless at 1B.  Lucky for him Prince Fielder is hurt and Texas is having a horrid year so he'll get lots of playing time to see if he can keep it up.

I dunno, his overall line this year (.682ops) is creeping back up to the level it was his first two years in the league, even though he's only git a .210babip.

Looking at his four years at the moment, last year is looking like a huge outlier.

Reimold DHes and bats cleanup tonight, with Valencia at first base batting sixth and Kawasaki at third base again. 

Re the Yankees' offseason moves:

I wonder how the Jays would be doing if their five best starting pitchers (Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman, Hutchison and Happ) were all on the DL, some of them for all or most of the season. Certainly they wouldn't be a game out of the WC spot.

At least the Yankees are making a concerted effort to improve - and they've been in the playoffs for most of the last 21 years. You would think a team that has been playoff-free for that long would step it up a bit more, given its current window of opportunity to win.

They did lose 3 of their top 5 starting pitchers a couple of years ago, and finished in the low 70s in wins.

Well this is more encouraging.

Especially from the kid on the mound.

Was that Drew Hutchison or John Smoltz?

What a fantastic clutch bounceback performance from Hutch. Nice to be reminded of how good he can look when he has all three pitches working.

The slider reminded me quite a bit of Stieb's at times.  When he's good, he's very, very good but when he's bad...

85 Game Score

Drew had an 86 May 16 v Texas, in a complete game shutout.

Top game scores...
Dickey: 76 Jul 28 vs Boston
Buehrle: 86 April 2nd vs Tampa (his only 80+)
Happ: 77 June 26 vs White Sox
Stroman: 80 Jul 24 vs Boston
McGowan: 69 May 4th vs Pittsburgh
Morrow: 58 Apr 9th vs Houston
Hendriks: 63 May 28 vs Tampa
Hutch: 86 May 16 vs Texas, now an 85 today, the only Jay with 2 in the 80's.

So now Hutchison has had as many 80+ games as all other starters combined for the Jays. Of course, Clemens had 7 in 1997 (pre-PEDs as he didn't meet that trainer until '98 iirc) which I suspect is the Jay record.  Halladay had 3 in 2008, 4 in his Cy year of 2003, 8 in his Cy year for the Phillies (2010).  Stieb had 6 in 1983. Hentgen 1996 (Cy year) had 4.  Just as a point of reference for how hard it is to get 80+ game scores.

Daniel Norris has been promoted to AAA. That doesn't make any sense. Kendall Graveman has also been recently promoted to AAA. That doesn't make any sense.

I've noticed some of these better prospect being traded are in AA or AAA. They may not have numbers that good, but since they are so MLB-Ready they have good value still.

So is someone of the MLB Pitching Staff being traded, so someone is called from AAA and someone (two is better) must move up?

The Bisons have lost a lot of starters this year.  I think they are down to Nolin, Liz, Walters, Valdes, Mills and Graveman now.  Walters, Valdes and Mills are filler, leaving Nolin, Graveman and now Norris as real prospects and Liz as a 'hmm' guy you want to keep giving innings to.  Liz has had problems though with extreme wildness (19 IP, 13 BB) so he might be sent back to AA again to keep Mills or someone else going.

Pitchers are seen as having just so many pitches before their arm goes kaboom so shooting through the system isn't that odd.  Normally they have a few things to work on and if they suddenly 'get it' they can climb very, very fast.  The most extreme Jay example would be Dave Stieb who went from mainly an outfielder in 1978 (just 4 games on the mound) to the majors by the end of 1979 and the All-Star game in 1980/81/83/84/85 (4th in Cy voting in 82).  Very rushed, but obviously handled it well (outside of never learning to avoid glaring at your own teammates when they make a mistake).

Happy Trout Day!  There have been no Blue Jays born on August 7 and the best players born on this day before MT were Edgar Renteria and that 19th century beach god Adonis Terry. 

Liz is currently on the DL.

Thanks John, thanks Gerry. Things seem more logical now.

Lawrie to the DL, Rasmussen up. Lawrie will be out 3-6 weeks with an oblique strain. Tolleson should be back tomorrow so Rasmussen is likely here for one game.

Lind is playing for the GCL Jays today, he doubled in his first at-bat.

Lawrie to the DL might be a blessing in disguise, as it should allow his hand to heal properly. Lawrie didn't really seem to be 100% when the Jays promoted him to the majors from his rehab assignment.

Lawrie is rapidly developing into one of the most injury prone players in the game. Some players' bodies just have a hard time with the rigors of professional sport. Such a shame, the guy's got so much ability, but he may never be able to really show it. I don't know the stats on it, but I would think that guys who regularly get hurt when in their early 20's probably don't usually become regular 140, 150 game players. You only tend to get more easily injured as you age. Plus, it takes longer to recover. Any examples of guys got hurt a LOT when in their early 20's who then had few injury problems in the rest of their careers?

What makes it worse is not just that he gets hurt so often, but that he also seems slow to heal....always coming back towards the end of the projected recovery range, never early.

That being said, i'd still say this would be a smart time to lock him up at a bargain price for a while.

Any examples of guys got hurt a LOT when in their early 20's who then had few injury problems in the rest of their careers?

Paul Molitor.

Well, the first two to come to mind are also former 3B... George Brett and Paul Molitor. 

Brett did play full time at first, but missed time via the DL in his age 24,25,27,28,29,30,31,33,34,36,38 seasons it seems.  Didn't hurt his production  (203 OPS+ in 1980 for example, lifetime 135, 3000+ hits)
Molitor is a bit closer... with DL time in each of his first 4 years  it seems, then 2 full seasons then just 13 games, then 3 more injury years... you get the idea.  Great when healthy but you knew you had to replace him for a few weeks every season.  Once moved to DH he was very healthy until the end of his career.

Of course, we get production like that from Lawrie and we can live with DL time.

Players in their 20s who suffer from chronic injuries, to one of their knees, say, are obviously unlikely to become more durable as they age. Now Lawrie has had oblique injuries before (and from a quick search, this seems to include the left oblique, which he's injured this time) so I suppose it's possible he's going to be prone to this kind of injury in the future, if that's even possible with oblique strains. But I would really hesitate to conclude that someone's "prone" to injuries on account of having three or four injuries over three or four years to different body parts (strained calf, broken finger, oblique injury). You have to be careful about creating false narratives out of random events.

I think Lawrie is probably more susceptible to injury than most because of (a) the position of his hands when he bats (he does seem vulnerable to HBPs like his last one) and (b) the Butch Hobsian reckless abandon with which he plays. If he continues to get playing time at 2B, then we can add (c) the inherent risk of playing that particular position.

Now, whether he is "injury prone" is another matter. I tend to think of players who routinely lose a few games at a time to a pulled this or a bad that as injury prone. Lawrie seems to lose games en masse to what are hopefully just fluke occurences.

I think Lawrie is probably more susceptible to injury than most because of (a) the position of his hands when he bats (he does seem vulnerable to HBPs like his last one) and (b) the Butch Hobsian reckless abandon with which he plays. If he continues to get playing time at 2B, then we can add (c) the inherent risk of playing that particular position.

I agree with this, although he's maybe ratcheted down the recklessness. Haven't seen him run into any camera bays this year.

The Jays acquired Lawrie between the 2010 and 2011 seasons. In the 3 2/3 seasons since then, he's gone on the DL 6 times and missed a smaller number of games twice due to injury without going on the DL. I certainly regard that as injury prone. It could be just random bad luck, but I think that some players are more prone to injury due to their style of play, the physiology of their body, or some combination thereof.

Also, as pointed out, some injuries, like significant joint injuries can lead to more trouble with that part of the body in the future. Fortunately, Lawrie hasn't suffered anything like that. Let's hope he can stay reasonably healthy in the future, but frankly, I'm not optimistic that that will be the case.

Neil Wagner made a brief appearance in the GCL game today. He faced one hitter, gave up a home run, and was then taken out with an elbow injury.

Can't see that anyone mentioned this yet but Lawrie is back on the DL with an oblique strain. Haven't heard who is coming up in his place. Maybe no one since Tolleson is back after tonight.

Interesting lineup for tonight's game.  Francisco and Valencia are at the corners, with Francisco at first and Valencia at third.  Valencia has looked quite good at first base, and you could certainly argue that it would be better if they switched.  Cabrera is the DH with Gose in left-field.  Thumbs up for that move. 

Can't see that anyone mentioned this yet but Lawrie is back on the DL with an oblique strain.

Something tells me you didn't look too hard, haha.

Preview of tonights game...
The pen situation...
0 days rest: Janssen
1 day rest: Cecil, Jenkins, Loup, McGowan, Sanchez (47 pitches, not available)
2 days rest: Rasmussen, just called up (23 pitches in AAA on the 4th)
3 days rest: Redmond

So I'd say all are available if needed outside of Sanchez. 

With a left-handed starter going tonight and the call-up for Lawrie only being for 1 day, I would have chosen a RH reliever (probably Esmil Rogers or Steve Delabar). 

Something tells me you didn't look too hard, haha.

Ack, you're right. I wouldn't have had to look very hard either. Too much multi-tasking. Too little competence.

Mike, would that be the Esmil Rogers who might be tomorrows starter for the Yankees?

When you see one Esmil Rogers, you've seen 'em all...All right, Delabar or Drabek instead of Rasmussen.  They're both still with the organization, right, or did I miss/forget something else?

The Valencia acquisition turns out to have some longer-term significance.  He can platoon with Francisco at third; Tolleson with Kawasaki/Goins at second.  It'll all work once Lind comes back in a few days.

They are going to have figure out their playoff roster as August 31 nears, but otherwise things are as palatable as could be expected when you end up losing an important player for about 3 months. 

The Yankee lineup today was interesting.  Prado at third, Drew at short, Ryan at second, Headley at first with Suzuki/Ellsbury/Gardner in the outfield.  That's a fine defensive club.  They shut out the Tigers 1-9 behind Shane Greene.  Drew had the RBI double.  The Tigers had 9 men on base, 4 via the walk, and the Yankees turned 3 DPs.

The Tigers are now at 62-50. Fangraphs currently lists their odds of winning the division at about 90%, I'll take the under on that one. I'd have it at maybe 65-70 per cent. 

Prado at third, Drew at short, Ryan at second, Headley at first

Is it just me or were the two best defenders on the wrong side of the diamond?

The Yankees may or may not make the playoffs, but they're sure leaving no stone unturned in their efforts to do so. I would not be surprised if New York finishes ahead of the Jays, despite losing (perhaps) their five best starting pitchers this year.

Cashman has been placing a heavy emphasis on defense for a while now. He himself said a year or so ago that he prefers strong two-way players.

It's very simple for the Jays from this point on. Win and you are in. Lose and you have to depend on the charity of others and hope for a lot of luck.

I like the rasmussen callup, simply because in his first year as a reliever at age 25 this year, he's been really good...and has the stuff to back it up.

AAA: 33.1ip, 9.5k/9, 4.1bb/9, 3.24era, 2.62fip
MLB: 11.1ip, 10.3k/9, 5.6bb/9, 3.18era, 4.38fip

The walks are a concern but not a huge one for a middle reliever if he's getting double the Ks.

I don't really view rasmussen as AAAA fodder...I think he could be a legit good reliever.

Meanwhile, all the RH RP have been crap (santos 4.12fip, delabar 5.02fip) or hurt (stilson, wagner).

I guesd they could have called up korecky.

That's a glowing review of what the yanks have done this year, greenfrog.

Another description would be they spent $500m this offseason for a decrepit injury prone roster that was doomed to mediocrity.

With the new additions, the yanks have a $235m roster this year.

And making excuses for injuries to guys like sabathia and pineda, when they were to be expected, is a bit rich....especially given that the jays can match them injury for injury this year anyways.

Not sure cashman exactly deserves praise here.

The Yankees don't actually need to make excuses, as their record over the last two decades speaks for itself. It's the Jays who have some explaining to do for 1994-2013.

New WC berth holder tonight?

Mr. Good Happ back for a second straight start.  Will wonders ever cease?

Those are nice moving goalposts but i think even the jays could also have lucked into one championship in the last 13yrs if they were the ones with by far the highest payroll in baseball every year.

If Gibbons hadn't started Valencia against the righty (0 for 3, by the way), he could've used him to pinch-hit in the 7th. Instead, Goins has to stay in the game and we let Miller face Rasmus, Goins, and Gose. Making it a little too easy on Showalter.

126 pitches is a lot, hope that doesn't come back to bite us. Great start by Happ.

Still throwing easy 94 even over 120 pitches.

Impressive.

Helluva game from happ.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Oh well.  It sure will be nice to have Lind back for a game like this one. Gonzalez had owned the Blue Jay lineup prior to last night; Lind is .500/.558/.688 in 18 PAs against him over his career.

Damn, they squeak out the series against half of our lineup. That sucks.

Encarnacion, Cabrera, Lind, Lawrie, Tolleson.....can we please get our lineup back already?

If Gibbons hadn't started Valencia against the righty... Making it a little too easy on Showalter.

What exactly is going on with Gibbons? Valencia has never hit RHP his whole flippin' career. Why does he keep getting these starts?

And you're right about Showalter. He's got a bullpen full of LH relievers. You've got to hold a RHB or two back if at all possible.

That truly sucked. Nine total hits; 4 by the Jays (plus 3BB and a HB) and Gose has to hit a HR to put a run on the board. Wow, that's sad.

If Encarnacion and Lind are pain free, I don't know what management is waiting for. I would rather have an off-timed Lind and EE in the lineup than whatever the hell we were running out there this week (in an important series, no less).

McNutty, the Jays ALWAYS rush back their players and it generally does not work out so well. I'm going to the game on Monday so I'm secretly hoping they're back then but I'm a fan, not a GM. AA has to learn from his mistakes, especially in this regard, at some point.

It is odd, a RHP going and on the bench you have Kawasaki - makes no sense at all.  As others have said, Valencia vs RHP is 229/269/356 lifetime (625 OPS vs 872 against LHP) and that is in 892 PA vs RHP.  Kawasaki vs RHP isn't great, but I'd rather see his 248/326/311 line up there.

Still, in the end this lineup should've scored more than 1 run even if I was hitting somewhere in that lineup (guarantee no DP's as I'd never make contact).  Sigh.  In a playoff slot as late as the afternoon of August 7th 2014.  Hopefully they can get hot again and reclaim it (assuming KC wins tonight of course).

So the Jays had trouble scoring tonight vs. Gonzalez. They face Sanchez, Scherzer, Price, and then King Felix in the next four games. #yikes

I wonder if its a coincidence that after AA chose not to upgrade the rotation, the two guys who were vulnerable to getting replaced came out with career best games next time out.

Yah, they could (should?) have had Kawasaki in there instead of Valencia at 3B against a righty starter, or even better, if Reimold is able to play the field, he could have played RF, Bautista 1B and Francisco 3B, although that hurts your defense. For some reason, Gibbons is treating Valencia and Reimold backwards. He is set on platooning Reimold, starting him almost exclusively vs lefties, while giving Valencia lots of action against righties. It's like he's gotten their stats mixed up, and thinks Reimold is the one who can't hit righties, although Reimold actually has a slightly better career OPS vs righties than lefties, while Valencia is the one who is stumped by right handers. I just don't get how he can be looking at these 2 players and using them the way he is. Heck, he even had Valencia hitting ahead of Rasmus in the batting order today against a right hander. Valencia hits righties like Rasmus hits lefties. Somebody should email Gibby a copy of Valencia's and Reimold's career splits. He clearly is not understanding these 2 new toys he has to play with.

The only explanation I have for last night's lineup is that Gibbons may believe that Valencia is the best defender that he has at third base.  With Happ pitching and a right-handed tilting Oriole lineup, Gibbons may have seen this as particularly important. 

The roster is a bit of a mess with all the injuries to position players (and Tolleson's paternity leave). 

Your guess is as good as any, Mike, though Kawasaki doesn't strike me as much of a downgrade at 3B. (Haven't seen enough of either to really know.) Personally I like Dan Gordon's theory that Gibbons has his notes mixed up. At least I can get some amusement.

Last night's strike zone (up until the 7th inning or so) was as large as any I can remember this year.  It seemed to be pretty consistent for both clubs, but I didn't catch every pitch. 

For the record, valencia has better career marks v rhp than kawasaki or goins.

And it was goins who came up in the key ab of the game with two risp and two out and couldn't get them in.

And i'm not sure kawasaki can handle 3b anyways.

I don't think that's right, Uglyone, at least with respect to Kawasaki. Versus righties, Kawasaki has a career 79 wRC+ while Valencia has a 68.

Last night's strike zone (up until the 7th inning or so) was as large as any I can remember this year.

I didn't start watching until about the 8th inning and from then on, the opposite seemed true. In Bautista's walk, he took two strikes that were called balls, including ball four.

For the record, valencia has better career marks v rhp than kawasaki or goins.

True, neither Kawsaki nor Valencia is a good option at 3B against a RHP. But if you keep Valencia on the bench, you at least get to leverage his one skill, hitting LHP, by waiting for the right time to bring him in. The Orioles have 4 LH relievers, so such an opportunity was likely to present itself.

Gibbons is undermanned, to be sure, and is having to cobble together his lineups as best he can. So really, every lineup construction will have issues. Still, he's clearly not in Showalter's league as a tactician.

The 2nd WC is KC with a .531 winning percentage. That projects to 86 wins on the season. Baltimore at .570 projects to 92 wins. There is still time but anything under 90 wins is weak, and does not deserve a prize.

There is still time but anything under 90 wins is weak, and does not deserve a prize.

You let a third of the teams into the playoffs and that's what happens.

Showalter's record with the O's is pretty impressive. This year, his second base situation is pretty similar to the Blue Jays.  His star catcher played only a month.  His first baseman is in a season-long slump.  He has 5 starting pitchers all of whom are about average; his two most effective pitchers (even with the usual relief pitcher adjustments) are Britton and O'Day.  So, his strategy has been pretty simple.  Put a good defence out there every day.  Let the offence score a decent number of runs with the stars and the left-field/DH utility players playing key roles.  Leverage and use Britton and O'Day.  The key move of the year was substituting Britton for Hunter; it wasn't really a hard decision.

Agree with all your comments about Showalter. His decision to bump Hunter for Britton was certainly made easier by Hunter's lack of pre-existing status as THE closer. Still, you'd like to think he'd have been that decisive were it Jim Johnson in Hunter's shoes.

Aside: Interesting to see such stellar years by sidewinders O'Day and Neshek. Takes me back to simpler times when the likes of Tekulve and Quisenberry were closers. Bill James once postulated that we would see more such pitchers over time, because of the presumed reduced amount of physical stress of pitching in this manner. Was he wrong (and I don't say this mockingly)! Bullpens are now filled with testerone-heavy, one-inning horses throwing in the mid-90s. Long gone are the 100-inning relievers.

Tony LaRussa killed 'em with the LOOGY business.  The ability to throw 2 innings is not valued.

I have said many times that I do not think that the entire approach to the pitching staff currently in use (5 man rotations, 6 IP on average per start for 30 start, 7 man pens, 50-70 IPs each per season) is efficient.  The driving force is still the "pitcher win" and it leads (I think) to significant misdirection of resources.  However, it'll take a modern day Branch Rickey to see it and revamp the way an entire organization looks at pitching from the ground up. 

Really i just want goins off the team. Guy is just not a major leaguer. He'll struggle to even be a john mcdonald.

Gose works as an all glove guy because at least he's shown he can not be a disaster vs. Rhp. Goins is just awful.

On the topic of sidewinders, I was looking up Eichhorn's numbers in his big year.

The numbers I remember very well, including the OPS split 779/351 (all Strat-O-Matic players were familiar with the splits, even if we didn't call them OPS splits at the time).

How long ago it happened? That I forgot. Twenty-eight friggin' years. Ouch.

Goins is a perfectly acceptable middle infield backup player.  He's probably a little above replacement level courtesy of his glove.  Kawasaki is probably a better player, and it is a mystery why the club would play Goins and rest Kawasaki.  The move you want to be able to make is Kawasaki starts; LOOGY comes into face him; RH pinch-hitter; Goins comes on defensively.  If you want to get really fancy, you might even get to pinch-run Goins for Francisco and then pinch-hit Valencia for Kawasaki and let both stay in the game. 

Continuing on the topic of pitching, SportsOnEarth.com has a really good article about the big overhand curveball. It's a long read but a good one.

Goins is a replacement level player at best. Fangraphs has him as sub replacement this year - not surprising for a guy who can barely keep his obp over .200 and ops over .500. And he's 26, so what you see is likely what you get at the plate, and defensively he's likely at peak value.

He's simply a hole in the lineup whenever he plays.

That is an excellent article, #2JB.  You would think that the advent of Questec would assist curveballers with some of the umpiring issues (at least to some extent).

Sports On Earth has another one about late season comebacks, for those looking to revive their spirits...

Adam Lind is not in the GCL lineup today because......his back is hurting.

That's two flare-ups of unrelated injuries in less than a week.  One of the issues with rehabbing an injury is risk of other injury due to prior inactivity.  Some of these secondary injuries can be avoided with good planning. 

Tonight's lineup is a bit of a head-scratcher.  Valencia at first base, Kawasaki at third base, Goins at second base, Navarro DHing and batting cleanup.  Francisco and Gose on the bench against Sanchez.

I wondered if Francisco had had particularly bad numbers against Sanchez.  Nah.  He has one double in 5 plate trips.  There is one player on the Blue Jay team who has had spectacular success against Sanchez- slashing .400/.571/.600.  Without checking, does anyone want to hazard a guess who that might be?

Per John Lott & Shi Davidi on Twitter, Valencia will be starting against RHP because Gibbons "wants to see what he can do." Which seems like maybe an interesting experiment in spring training, but not such a great idea when hunting for a playoff spot.

Most people would look at Valencia's career numbers and conclude he fits a very specific, but useful, role. I probably would not have defined that role as "batting vs RHP & playing 1st."

It's 5 o'clock.  Time's up.  Answer: J. A. Happ.  Over his career, Happ is a .090/.135/.123 hitter, so you might want to regress his numbers a little bit if you send him in to pinch-hit tonight...

Valencia at first base

Gibbons appears to be reacting to the fact that Sanchez has reverse splits (547/647) this season, though they are flat for his career (680/694). That said, he is DHing Navarro and not Reimold, so the L/R business isn't factoring in in that decision.

I wonder if he thinks Valencia is someone else.

Valencia will be starting against RHP because Gibbons "wants to see what he can do."

I missed that when I posted my comment. This is turrible, to quote Charles Barkley. Wanna see what he can do? Visit BBRef. Lots of evidence there.

I think Gibby must be either feeling the pressure or the dog days are getting to him.... O well, I'm becoming more pessimistic about the Jays chances with each passing day and subsequent loss or injury. Is it hockey season yet?

It's Canada. It's never not hockey season.

Boo to hockey.

Melky's good to go I see, good news!

And Valencia singles in a run in the first.... who'da thunk except maybe Gibby.

#cantpredictball