Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Game Threads Jays vs Red Sox
It's off to fabled Fenway Park, the "legendary home of the Red Sox. " Honest, that's according to Google Maps.  Gotta be true.


The Red Sox have given up, of course. Jake Peavy is back in California, pitching in the National League. Other organizations are sniffing at the corpse, wondering if Jon Lester can be extracted. (In a perfect world, this would actually happen before Wednesday. The guy's having outstanding year, it would be nice not to see him.)

Anyway, the technical term for all of this is "Good Times."

Matchups!

Dickey (8-10, 4.04) vs Buchholz (5-6, 5.50)
Stroman (6-2, 3.21) vs De La Rosa (3-3, 3.54)
Buehrle (10-7,  3.19) vs Lester (10-7, 2.52)

This and That... As a starter, Stroman is 5-2, 2.21 with a 55-14 K-W ratio.  That's... pretty good. He's never pitched in Fenway, as you might expect. But Mark Buehrle is 5-3 in 11 career starts at Fenway, and as a Blue Jay, he's 2-0, 2.77 in 4 starts in Boston. Yeah, surprised me too. Meanwhile, Dickey has only started here once (a CG loss last September.)
Posted by Magpie on Monday, July 28 2014 @ 06:14 PM EDT.
Jays vs Red Sox | 273 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
BlueJayWay - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#290684) #
Rosenthal and others saying Hendricks and Kratz are going to KC. Don't know rest of deal.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#290686) #
Future considerations. A bag of baseballs. A ride to the airport.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#290687) #
probably an infielder or reliever.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#290688) #
It'll be funny when it turns out to be a three-team, 14-player deal that sees the Jays get Giancarlo Stanton.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#290689) #
Sorry. It's Danny Valencia.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#290690) #
Platoon mate for Francisco.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#290691) #
The Melkman Hitteth.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#290692) #
Valencia Career v. LHP: 463pa, .879ops, 140wrc+

Valencia Career UZR/150: -5.2@3B (2584 innings)


nice pickup.

especially for that price.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#290693) #
A righty hitter (just like Stanton!). I approve.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#290694) #
Goins Goins gone?
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#290695) #
Nice move. They really needed a guy who hits lefties well, and it didn't cost much.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#290696) #
Jason Lane has something in common with Rickey Henderson and not too many other position players. Any ideas?
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#290697) #
Looks like a nice move for the Jays. Valencia's career wRC+ versus LHP (498 PA) is 140. That is a large number.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#290698) #
So Brett Lawrie comes back as 2B, while Francisco and Valencia platoon at 3B. I think that works. Now to see what A.A.'s doing next.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#290699) #
Seems a bit of a weird move for the Royals. Kratz is reasonable backup, but Sal Perez plays nearly every day. I suppose Hendricks might be a tiny upgrade on Bruce Chen, but they seem like similar junk ballers.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#290700) #
I think valencia might just as easily be Lind's platoon partner. Doubt they want to take Tolleson out of the rotation.

Hey, has Tolleson ever played CF before?
[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#290701) #
Happy with the move- it's a start and it Gives us a few options. If we can't find anything else he can be a platoon with either Lind or Francisco or even Rasmus in a pinch (Bautista or melky would have to play cf though).

A few more moves like this and I'll be happy.

Mind you I'd kill for Price.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#290702) #
Goins back down? Kawasaki?

They probably wish they had kept Reimold on the DL until he could actually play in the field now.
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#290703) #
Lane and Ricky both throw left, bat right. Very rare, because you are taking a natural left handed person and giving up the big natural advantage of hitting left handed. Always thought that kind of suited Ricky.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#290704) #
Jason Lane. Bats right throws left.

Of course, there's no shortgae of guys who throw RH and bat LH. So there really is something about LH throwers. I'll bet there's also a much larger percentage of RH throwers who switch-hit than LH throwers. (Granted, the geometry of the game does favour hitting left-handed. But the platoon advantage generally is universal.)
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#290705) #
Very good start for E. Santana today. So far this year, Santana has been quite a bit better than Ubaldo (with a much more team-friendly contract), although he has benefited from the Braves' defense and being in the NL. I guess it's a good sign that the Jays were apparently targeting the better pitcher (and contract) last off-season.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#290706) #
you are taking a natural left handed person

Not necessarily. You just never know. My son and heir does everything right-handed except swing a bat. Swinging LH is what came naturally. Brooks Robinson does absolutely everything in life left-handed. Except bat and throw.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#290707) #
The Red Sox aren't the only ones having a problem with Dickey's knuckleball tonight. Andy Fletcher seems to be a little confused so far.....
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#290708) #
Tolleson has roughly career numbers of: 227 innings 2B, 228 innings 3B, 73 innings OF, but not CF. Sorry.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#290709) #
I wonder what the error rate (strikes called balls, balls called strikes) is for knuckleballers vs other types of pitchers?  If significant then auto-umps might be a major benefit for knuckleballers someday.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#290710) #
I found Tolleson with 25gms @ CF in the minors, with a 1.000 fielding percentage! Though with a -4 Rtz (whatever that is).
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#290711) #
Buchholz is so much their version of Morrow its hilarious.

Absolute pinhead, with a golden arm.
[ Reply to This ]
CeeBee - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#290712) #
Nice to see the bottom of the lineup cash in those runs.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#290713) #
If this is the last we see of Goins for a while, he's going out in style.
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#290714) #
About being a natural left handed person - the vast majority of people throw with their dominant hand. So, if you see somebody who throws left handed, it is very highly likely that person is left handed. That's why it's so rare to see a lefty thrower who bats right handed. Batting lefty is a significant advantage because there are so many right handed pitchers, plus you get the quicker route to 1st base. There are lots of guys who throw right, but bat left to get that natural advantage.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#290715) #
Looks like Reyes might have aggravated his shoulder injury.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#290716) #
Whatever his shortcomings - which mostly involve staying healthy - Morrow is not a pinhead. This isn't A.J. Burnett, or someone like that. He's bright, coachable, wants to learn. It hasn't worked, of course.

Has Ryan Goins ever had a 3-0 green light in his life? It's only the second 3-0 count he's seen in the major leagues.

The Jays are now 4-9 with 10 RBIs when they put the 3-0 pitch in play.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#290717) #
it is very highly likely that person is left handed.

I suspect that's very true in real life, not quite as true in professional baseball. Which is, you must always remember, populated exclusively by freaks to whom normal rules don't apply so much.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#290718) #
it helps that the Sox are awful, but Dickey looks as nasty as I've seen him as a jay tonight.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#290719) #
I am going to throw out a bold prediction (at least for the Jays). Going to Buffalo to make room for Valencia is .......... Rasmussen. Yes, we are about to see the return of the 6 man bullpen.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#290720) #
The acquisition of Valencia is exactly the kind of acquisition that I was suggesting yesterday (in the debate with uglyone).  Valencia strengthens 3B, he indirectly strengthens 2B, he provides more platoon options, and he boosts the Jays lineup against LHP. 

Uglyone argued yesterday that Anthopoulos didn't need to make this kind of acquisition because the lineup is already good enough to catch up to the Orioles.  Perhaps that might have been true, but this kind of trade (and maybe more to come) are better than the status quo.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#290721) #
I don't get the gratuitous swipe at Morrow and Buchholz. Just because a pitcher is struggling, for whatever reason (injury, mechanical issues, loss of stuff or confidence, personal issues), doesn't make him a "pinhead" or deserving of a slur. Not to mention that sometimes guys who struggle massively (like Lackey) eventually turn it around.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#290722) #
yikes you guys are sensitive about these poor millionaires' egos. these two are as frustrating players to watch as there are in baseball, and its a shame considering how much talent they have.

ChinaFan - picking up a lefty masher for free is just fine with me. wouldn't have been my priority, and probably makes Reimold redundant, but still fine with me.
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#290723) #
Again, about handedness, mlb players have a high level of athletic ability, but that wouldn't make them any more likely to start throwing a baseball with their non-dominant hand. You can look at the hand that a player throws with and be just about 100% sure that is their dominant hand. That's why it is so extremely rare for a lefty thrower in mlb to be a righty batter. A guy like Henderson was giving up the natural advantage he had (being left handed) by hitting right handed.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#290724) #
Jason Lane. Bats right throws left.

I believe there was a time when Henderson was the only position player in the game who did this. Baseball favours LH hitters and RH throwers (more positions to play). It's the odd case that is the opposite of this.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#290725) #
I guess I'm sensitive when it comes to pinhead comments.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#290726) #
The trade seems logical to me - Kratz and Hendricks were not going to get many chances to contribute this season while Valencia can be a useful piece.  Basically 2 guys who are either AAA or minor ML free agent acquisitions for a useful piece.  Nice trade.

For the Royals it makes sense as their #2 catcher has a -1 OPS+ ... yes, negative.  So Kratz is a big upgrade for them.  Hendricks should be a big improvement on Bruce Chen (yes, the one who was a spring training Jay back in 2004) who by some miracle had a 126 ERA+ last year but this year is at a 64 and at 37 and having a lifetime 95 ERA+ I doubt he'll improve much.  The back end of KC's pen is familiar - Downs and Frasor  (11 1/3 IP so far between them for KC).  I suspect Hendricks will be in AAA or replacing Chen - not sure which.

Danny Valencia has a 96 OPS+ this year, 139 last year, 95 lifetime (1380 PA).  Mainly at 3B in the majors with 6 games (32 innings) at 2B.  In the minors he played almost exclusively 3B with just 28 games at 1B, 4 games in LF, and 1 each at RF/DH/SS.  Big splits last year in AAA just like his ML splits so he sure seems to be a near perfect addition.  Ideal to mix and match with Francisco at 3B and potentially with Lind at 1B/DH.  3 more years of control too which is a plus.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#290727) #
an underrated aspect to this deal might be that Jimenez' performance at AAA has made him a quality 3rd catcher option at this point.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#290728) #
Quick poll. Dickey is cruising and at 73 pitches. If the score remains 4-0 and he goes 1-2-3 in the bottom of the sixth do you send him out for the 7th?
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#290729) #
Lefty-righty stuff, continued.

Left-handed people, as a rule, don't use their left hand to do everything. Not to the degree that right-handed people use their right hand. Put it another way, left-handed people use their right hands to do things much more often than right-handed people use their left. This may be because the world in general was designed for the right-handed person, and left-handers have learned to adapt.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#290730) #
Yes to the Hodgie poll.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#290731) #
Yes.... especially now that its 5-0.

Also Goins is raking all of the sudden.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#290732) #
The Jays are among 4 teams who are scouting Bartolo Colon and AJ Burnett in their game tonight, according to a Jon Morosi tweet.  Colon could be quite useful to the Jays, although he is owed the remainder of his $9-million salary this year and $11-million next year, so you'd have to wonder how the money would be worked out.  But he probably wouldn't cost a lot in terms of Jays prospects.  And he could ease the burden on Hutchison and Stroman if they have innings limits. 

Interestingly, after the trade of Liam Hendriks, the Jays don't really have a 6th starter any more (except perhaps for Todd Redmond).  They're a little short of pitching depth at the moment, so perhaps the trade of Hendriks is a tiny hint that Anthopoulos might be targeting a veteran starter such as Colon.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#290733) #
heh. can't believe Goins is starting to look good now too. this team is starting to feel it.

are they going to send Goins down after this performance?

or are we going to see......a six man pen and make 92-93 deliriously happy?
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#290734) #
Goins now has 8 hits in 23 at-bats since his return to the majors, and that includes a pair of doubles and a triple.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#290735) #
Bucholtz had a 1.74 ERA last year.

This year its 5.68. Last year K's rate was much higher than anything he's ever put up and he's getting killed by BABIP this year.

(ERA keeps rising as i type this... now its 5.87)
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#290736) #
Scary how much I'm enjoying this. This feels like years of payback against that team.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#290737) #
14-1 revenge.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#290738) #
Munenori Kawasaki is hitting .293, Ryan Goins has cracked the Mendoza Line. In other news, Men From Mars have landed.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#290739) #
As it stands right now (12-0), since Boston beat the Toronto 14-1 the Jays have out-scored them 33-7. Wow.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#290740) #
This is a lot of fun.  9-0 against the Red Sox in Boston.  Hopefully Dickey still has it after such a long break but I'm sure he won't complain.

What the heck will be the lineup now and in the near future (if all get healthy)?
CA: Navarro/Thole
1B: Francisco/Bautista
2B: Goins/Tolleson
3B: Kawasaki/Valencia
SS: Reyes
LF: Cabrera
CF: Rasmus
RF: Bautista/Gose (when Bautista at 1B)
DH: Johnson/Reimold

That's 14 hitters.  What mix/match do you break up to get to a 7 man pen?  I sorta could see Gose going down and letting Johnson hit vs all comers at DH or 1B while Reimold and Francisco platoon with Bautista in RF everyday.  Could send Goins or Kawasaki down to get Francisco at 3B more often.

Then comes Encarnacion (Johnson down), Lawrie (Kawaski or Goins down), Lind (Johnson if still up or ... hrm ... who else?).  Boy getting hard to pick guys to send down isn't it?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#290741) #
did somebody mention that the Jays are scouting the Colon-Burnett matchup tonight.

Colon's throwing another good one, and has had another very good year even with a very heavy workload.

I've been outspoken in not wanting to pick up non-ace SP, but I think Colon would be a fit. He's still a bigtime innings eater (6.7ip/gs) which is a step up from most of the depth SP options out there. I wouldn't expect much better than a 4era from him but with the ability to pitch deep in games that's a nice upgrade still.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#290742) #
That seals it. Doubront's starting Game 1 of the ALCS for the A's in 2016.
[ Reply to This ]
ISLAND BOY - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#290743) #
Delightful to watch the Jays pound the Red Sox in their own park ! Regarding acquiring another starter like Colon or Burnett - where exactly would he fit in the rotation ? Hutchison and Happ have been inconsistent but would either of them take kindly to being sent to the bullpen ? Of course, Stroman has an inning limit and I don't know when the Jays might want to shut him down, so maybe that's the consideration for trading for another starter.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#290744) #
Well, the offense is tight now for who to keep/send down.  Add another pitcher and get Morrow healthy and then what?  Gotta say these are sweet problems to have... missed these debates from the early 90's.

Rotation: Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman - dead locks right now.  Hutchison and Happ both could be shifted to the pen - Hutch due to fatigue and Happ just because.
Bullpen: Janssen, McGowan, Loup, Cecil, Redmond - dead locks (added Redmond as a 2.24 ERA in 56 1/3 IP is hard to ignore and he has no options left iirc).  Rasmussen is easily dumped.  Sanchez can be sent down but I think the Jays would like to keep him on the roster if possible.  If a trade doesn't clear out someone though Sanchez would have to go down I'd think. 

Colon was a guy who I wanted the Jays to sign in the offseason as I thought he'd fit nicely into the rotation - not a super-long deal (2014/2015) and not insane dollars while at worst he should be a 90-100 ERA+ inning eater which is about what we figure Dickey has been and a team can always use a couple of those.  Of course, Colon has a 87 ERA+ going into today but his FIP is 3.49 which is a 101 ERA+ for the Mets.

Also I bet Stroman and Buehrle are going 'save some runs for me' right now :)

[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#290745) #
Two things

1) The best basketball player on the planet shoots right handed but is naturally left handed. The (arguably) best tennis player on the planet plays left handed but is naturally right handed.

2) That inning was really really fun.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#290746) #
John - I love Hutch to death but he might be the perfect solution to our RH RP woes. He's just not going deep enough into games for my tastes.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#290747) #
Don't you send Johnson down?  Then platoon Valencia and Francisco at first until Lind comes back, then moves them to 3rd?
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#290748) #
Just noticed the contract that Pedroia has with the Sox. He has 7 more years to go, and more than $90 million owing. His numbers are really shrinking over the last 4 years, and 2nd basemen tend to not last as long as outfielders or corner infielders. His OPS 2011 - 2014 has gone: .861, .797, .787, .709, HR's are 21, 15, 9, 4, SB's are 26, 20, 17, 3. That contract could be a real load. Wouldn't surprise me to see them deal him before the bottom falls out on his perceived value, if it hasn't already.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#290749) #
yep Paul, you're right - likely Johnson goes down.

which is too bad, because he's been good, and he needs to clear waivers.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#290751) #
If Bautista is healthy enough to play RF again, I'd send down Gose so I didn't lose an asset in Johnson.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#290752) #
(Assuming you refuse to option down Rasmussen and go with a 6 man bullpen for a few days, using your proximity to Buffalo to your advantage.)
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#290753) #
Does anyone here bother to check the stats of any one joining the Jays staff? Or do they just say. let's do this so he can play there. Somewhere he's never played before. Or are people just lazy?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#290755) #
wat?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#290756) #
92-93 --- that leaves out without a backup CF. not sure we want to be forced to put Bautista there again.
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#290757) #
Checked Rickey Henderson's page on Wikipedia - bit of an interesting story. He was a natural lefty, but he said that when he started playing ball as a kid, all of his friends were right handed, and so they swung the bat right handed, and he figured that was the way it was supposed to be done, so he started hitting right handed, too.

The entry says that in the entire history of mlb through the 2008 season, only 57 position players have thrown left, batted right, and Henderson was easily the best of them.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#290758) #
The usefulness of Buffalo is huge. If Colby Rasmus goes down, Melky or someone else can fill in until Gose is recalled. But sending down someone, without options, who's doing well is like giving them away, for nothing. That happens as a last resort.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#290759) #
If there's an obvious answer it's Goins, I think. He has options too, and with Encarnacion and Lind sidelined you don't want any holes in the lineup. (I trust nobody's putting too much stock in today's successful batting practice session with Buchholz...) He'll be around in September for sure, and he'll play, too.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#290760) #
Hrm... what to do, what to do.  That must be going through AA's mind right now.  Lets try regulars / backups
CA: Navarro
1B: Francisco
2B: Goins
3B: Kawasaki
LF: Cabrera
CF: Rasmus
RF: Bautista
DH: Johnson

Backups...
CA: Thole
IF: Tolleson, Valencia
OF: Gose, Reimold

Hrm... I wonder if Reimold is about to go back to the DL?  He hasn't played at all since being taken off the DL and tonight would've been perfect to break him in with a PA or something.  Might make the most sense with the current team.  Once everyone is healthy...
CA: Navarro
1B: Encarnacion
2B: Lawrie
3B: Francisco/Valencia
SS: Reyes
LF: Cabrera
CF: Rasmus
RF: Bautista
DH: Lind/Reimold
backups: CA: Thole, IF: one of Tolleson or Goins or Kawasaki.  Reimold is the backup OF and Valencia a backup for 2B/1B maybe?  Hrm again.  You want a real backup for SS/2B and Goins or Kawasaki is that.  You want a real defensive CF as well and that'd be Gose but you also need a RH bat to mix with Lind and Francisco. 

The pen is overcrowded (if healthy) with Janssen, McGowan, Cecil, Loup, Richmond, Sanchez and Morrow - none of whom the Jays want to send down (save an option on Sanchez).  Of course, counting on Morrow to get healthy is like counting on a politician to keep a promise.  It has been known to happen but it is rare.  If the Jays trade for another starter it gets more crowded.  If you assume Morrow is DL'ed for the year and Sanchez would be sent down then a trade for another starter and shifting someone to the pen could work...barely.  But could the Jays last a month with a 6 man pen?  Of course August also has 5 off-days and just one 9 game stretch for the longest without a day off so if you were ever going to try a 6 man pen this would be the time.

As I said earlier though, this is the type of problem we've hoped for - too many good options rather than debating which of a batch of bad ones to keep.

Yeah, I'd go with sending Rasmussen down for now and then Johnson, Kawaski and Goins as others get healthy although if Goins and Francisco keep hitting then what do you do when Lawrie and Encarnacion are back?  Like I said, nice problems.
[ Reply to This ]
acepinball - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#290761) #
It's interesting that the Blue Jays have essentially acquired a 3B for the next three years. A two headed monster of Juan Francisco and Danny Valencia. They should be reasonably priced, and the subsequent moving of Lawrie to 2B will mean a sizable discount at the keystone as well. Seeing how they're locked into Reyes and EE/Lind provide incredible production at first, this IF configuration could stick around for a while. I imagine that one of Kawasaki/Goins will be the defensive sub/utility player (maybe Izturis takes that role next season... Maybe we never see him again).

But one has to wonder what the plan is with Steve Tolleson. He's been versatile, but would they dare use him as a platoon mate in the OF? Perhaps they sit Rasmus (and in 2015 Gose?) against LHP and use Melky or Bautista in CF? Absolutely not an ideal defensive configuration, but it makes for a pretty formidable lineup vs. LHP. Beat the opponent into submission, then bring in the defensive substitutes.

If Tolleson doesn't platoon with Rasmus, then we can bid fare thee well to Nolan Reimold, who is a big risk with little defensive value. Just not enough roster spots available on the 25. That's even with a six man bullpen.

In the near term, I suspect we'll see Valencia/Francisco at third, Muni/Tolleson at second, with some Ryan Goins sprinkled in when Juan plays first or DHs.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Monday, July 28 2014 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#290763) #
I don't think having Bautista, Cabrera, or Tolleson in CF for a few innings is too big a concern.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#290766) #
Melky Cabrera is hitting .313/.362/.487. If the season ended today, he'd get a qualifying offer.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 06:14 AM EDT (#290767) #
Nice game - lest we get too cocky, remember the Sox pounded the jays a week ago, yet the Jays won the next 3 games - the goal is to win the series at least & with Lester on Wednesday, a game 2 win is crucial - also interested in how Stroman does against a veteran team he is facing in consecutive starts

I like the Valencia acquisition especially in terms of cost - I wonder if the setback to EE and his RH bat speeded up the trade - tricky who goes down, I'm tempted to go with a 6 man pen for a few days but doubt the Jays concur.

Wonder if the Jays Reclaim Kenny Wilson? - the life of a minor leaguer!
[ Reply to This ]
Mike D - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#290769) #
Considering not only yesterday but this season, it's just amazing that Buchholz and Doubront put up a combined ERA of 1.04 in the most recent World Series.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#290770) #
I keep hoping for another shoe to drop.  56 hours roughly left until the trade deadline so we are virtually in the final 48 hour window that AA says is the window for rumours (if you hear it and it doesn't happen within 48 hours it probably isn't real). 

MLB Trade Rumours says the Mets sources are saying there is nothing going on with Colon...probably the Mets are trying to get the Jays to take on all his salary while the Jays are trying to balance it out - maybe send Ricky Romero there to cover most of the difference (boy that'd be nice eh?).  Wonder if the Jays are still chasing Rusney Castillo, the latest hotshot from Cuba?  A RH hitting OF who thinks he can play SS as well who has plus speed and worst tool is his arm (just average) - generally viewed as a CF in the future but could be ML ready right now.  After seeing the White Sox get Jose Abreu (163 OPS+), the A's Yoenis Cespedes (113 OPS+ this year, 118 lifetime), and the Dodgers Yasiel Puig (161 this year, 159 last year) it has to be tempting.  All 3 were pure free agents - no cost other than the cash and so is Castillo now.  There is a lot of risk there, but boy could the reward be nice too.  Cost estimates are from mid $20 mil to mid $40 mil range but not sure on years (Abreu's was over 6 and looks like a great bargain now as he'll be making $7 to $12 mil per year until after he is 32).  Like Abreu you'd be buying age 27-32 with a 6 year deal.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#290771) #
I have a slightly different view of the trade that has been expressed here.  I think that it's a good trade for the Blue Jays and a great trade for the Royals.  I expect Hendriks to thrive in the more favourable environment for a pitcher in KC (much better defence and a kinder home park).  I am not suggesting that Cy Young awards are in his future, but that he'll be a solid innings eater for years.

Having Tolleson and Reimold and Valencia around now means that opponents cannot simply parade in left-handed pitchers.  It's a big deal for the next 2-3 weeks especially. 

[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#290772) #
I agree that it's a good deal from the Royals perspective- but that doesn't change the fact that the jays dealt away spare parts. Seems like a classic win-win deal to me.

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#290773) #
Yeah, this is about as win-win as it gets.  The Jays have an excess of pitchers who are in the Hendriks zone (good but not good enough for this rotation or pen) and Kratz is #3 for catchers with Jimenez almost ready (Pentecost working his way up, probably 2-3 years away though).  The infield has been a patchwork and RH hitting is something the Jays desperately need.  Ideally Valencia would have more time at 2B in the past but with Francisco and him that would be a nice 3B platoon with Lawrie stuck at 2B.  Plus very affordable for a few years which is a big plus.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#290775) #
MLB Trade Rumors says the Jays are being very aggressive with a Lester deal.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#290776) #
Now, as much as A.A. says, "if you hear about it, it's not happening", that's not always true. Major markets like New York, Boston and L.A., to name a few, leak likes sieves. Too many people know, and someone must always tell someone else. (You can always keep a secret if no one else knows.)
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#290777) #
That would be interesting.  Jon Lester being on the Red Sox and all.  A free agent after this season he is a pure rental and Boston will demand the equal of a sandwich pick no matter what for him (an easy qualifying offer if they keep him).  He is making $13 mil this year about 1/3rd left to be paid.  He'd be a clear upgrade over Happ or Hutch at the end of the rotation.  To cover salary the Jays could ask Boston to take Santos (not completely equal but close enough) but that would then require a better package to get him.  I cannot imagine it'd be Sanchez or anyone that high on the prospect list for a 2  month rental, but who would it be?  As an added incentive the Orioles are in on him too.  Last thing you want is for your #1 competition for a playoff spot to get the guy who could push them over the top. 
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#290778) #
What' a spare part?

Liam Hendricks may be a spare part to the Jays, but he's a vital part of the Bison Rotation and must be replaced. But he must be replaced by someone good. That's not a spare part.

Erik Kratz is a good catcher. He can hit MLB pitching and catch a knuckleball, and do the other catching stuff well. He's a big step above anything else if the minors. (My apologies to Jimenez fans - he's still a long ways away.) That's not a spare part.
[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#290780) #
Buffalo- Jenkins, Liz, Mills, Nolin, Drabek, McGuire, Rogers, Romero, Hill can all start. I don't see a need there. Yes Hendricks was pitching better than the rest but those are the breaks of a minor league team.

On a side note I'd personally have Jenkins as the "next in line" arm from Buffalo but for whatever reason the organization seems to value his low walk rates and consistently above average MLB performance less than I do.

As for Kratz, I agree that he has value, but you do have to give up something to get something and he is still #3 on the depth chart and about to be passed by Jiminez.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#290781) #
I like this trade. AND lately the Jays seem to make unknown hitters a lot better. Someone mentioned platooning. You never know.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#290784) #
Someone mentioned platooning. You never know.

I think in Valencia's case, you do know. He's clearly been brought in to face LHP. He's very unlikely to bump anyone to get playing time against RHP.

[ Reply to This ]
FisherCat - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#290785) #
Just a slight correction to the post heading...

Stroman has actually pitched in Fenway (as a CCod Lg All-Star)

http://www.msgvarsity.com/long-island/marcus-stroman-dominates-at-fenway-1.29554

[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#290786) #
Don't agree. Think Jiminez is better than Kratz. A J will be in TO next season.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#290787) #
would not give up Norris in any Lester trade. Lester is only a rental.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#290788) #
This season might revolve around the 6-8 June series in St. Louis.

Game One is a very strong start by Marcus Stroman, in his second Start: 6.0, 7H, 1R/ER, 2BB, 7SO and a 3-1 win on 11 hits and 3BB.

Game Two is a strong start by Mark Buehrle despite not having his best stuff: 7.0, 5H, 1R/ER, 5BB, 6SO, 1 HR, but a 5-0 loss on 3 hits and 1BB.

Game Three was a struggle by Drew Hutchison, not his first but not his last: 3.0, 6H, 5R/ER, 1BB, 1SO, 2HR and a 5-0 loss on 4 hits and 4BB.

This is where the hitting problems with this team start. What did St. Louis notice that others didn't? St. Louis' pitching was good, but not that good. What did they see?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#290789) #
No matter which way i squint at the SEP (hendriks), i can't see what mike sees. I see a soft tossing control specialist without any great offspeed stuff and a fairly extreme flyball pitcher to boot. And his hr/fb% has stayed steadily above league average every year he's played in the bigs, which means gopheritis is a huge problem for him. He's like a softer tossing version of litsch. Or, probably more aptly, the second coming of josh towers.

I agree though that Jimenez is ready to be the third catcher and should be competing for a big league spot soon.


Thing is, playing around with the roster reminds me of why i didn't think a bat like valencia was a priority right now - because it looks to me like he's either pushing tolleson or reimold out of a regular job, which i'm not sure is a substantial upgrade...at least with a healthy lineup.

Even if we keep all three of valencia, tolleson, and reimold on the roster, when we're healthy one of these guys will not be getting regular playing time unless we're comfortable putting a bautista/cabrera/tolleson in CF (whuch we shouldn't be).

Definitely nice to have as injury insurance, though.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#290790) #
I'd give up Norris for Lester.

Lester
Stroman
Dickey
Buehrle
Hutch

Is a contending staff for sure.


And what nobody is mentioning is that Norris really isn't doing very well in AA.

People keep saying he's passed Sanchez on the prospect list but they're the same age Norris is struggling at least as badly as Sanchez was in AA this year.


We have a shot at something this year. A prospect with Norris' track record should not get in the way of adding a pitcher like Lester, especially since the jays are pretty stacked with young arms right now (stro, hutch, sanchez, norris, hoffman, osuna, castro, reid-foley.....and then lower down smoral, smith, perdoma, tirado, labourt, dawson).
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#290791) #
St. Louis started the slide. What caused doubts by many people was 5 straight losses, 3 July - 7 July, after beating Milwaukee twice (four verses Oakland and 1 against Los Angeles).

Game One: Dickey pitched fairly well: 8.0, 6H, 4R, 2ER, 3BB 6SO for a 4-1 loss on 5 hits and 3BB.

Game Two: Stroman was a Star: 7.0, 3H, 3BB, 7SO for a 12 inning 1-0 loss on 9 hits and 2BB. (Relief over 4.1 IP allowed 2 hits and 7BB.)

Game Three: Buehrle pitched fairly well: 6.0, 10H, 3R/ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR for a 5-1 loss on 5 hits and 2BB.

Game Four: Hutchison pitched fairly well: 5.2, 8H, 3R/ER, 2BB, 4SO for a 4-2 loss on 5 hits and 1BB.

Game Five: Happ struggled: 4.1, 5R/ER, 2BB, 2SO for a 5-2 loss on 6 hits.

Once through the Rotation and nothing. That was a bad time had by all.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#290792) #
And get Uehara out of them too while we're at it.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#290794) #
uglyone missed one important reason to go after Lester: Baltimore won't get Lester. Otherwise he is bang on with all the other reasons.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#290796) #
If Lester is dealt it will most likely be to Dodgers as I believe Price is off the market.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#290797) #
The only starting pitcher that may be on the market and that I think Jays should pursue is Tommy Milone.......maybe A's will not capitulate to his trade request.

Otherwise, only move I see AA making is attempting to pick up Colon on waiver claim in August.

[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#290798) #
maybe A's will not capitulate to his trade request

The A's would be wise to keep a disgruntled 6th starter on hand. I'd be willing to wager he's not done making starts for this team.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#290799) #
How does milone help us? Would he even make our playoff rotation?

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#290800) #
Even playing in an extreme pitcher's park, milone's been pretty much a 4era guy in his career, with peripherals to support that era. But on the road, his career era is 4.5, with peripherals to support that number.

He's no better than happ. Maybe worse.

If we're gonna take a shot at this thing we gotta think big - and we should be using our impressive young pitching depth as a hammer.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#290801) #
It's too bad we like our manager - the Jays could have included him in their offer for Lester. I might be willing to include Rivera if it would help cinch the deal, though.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#290802) #
I just don't see how the Jays are positioned to give up top prospects for a 2 month rental. The next wave of legitimate pitching prospects after Norris are a long way away from the Majors and the rotation is not exactly young with Buehrle and Dickey. Last season I hated the Shields trade and Kansas City at least had him for 2 seasons, not 2 months.

As a point of clarification, Norris and Sanchez are not the same age. Norris doesn't turn 22 until the end of April 2015 and his FIP is almost the same as Sanchez's in AA with much better K/9 numbers.

[ Reply to This ]
finch - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#290803) #
The only guy I'm shopping if I'm AA is Sean Nolin. Whatever starter, provided better than Hutch or Happ, I get in return is the guy I acquire. I would throw in a couple of A ball players too but no one from his internal top 25. And the Jays have prospect depth.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#290804) #
Stroman 23 - MLB
Hutchison 23 - MLB
Sanchez 21 - MLB
Nolin 24 - AAA
Norris 21 - AA
Hoffman 21 - ?

Dickey and Buehrle under contract for next year.

Morrow and Happ team options for next year.

How can we not use this depth to trade for a shot at a world series?

Especially with guys like Norris and Sanchez having such spotty milb track records, making stardom unlikely and even consistent mlb performance no safe bet?
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#290805) #
".....(Assuming you refuse to option down Rasmussen and go with a 6 man bullpen for a few days, using your proximity to Buffalo to your advantage....")....

This turned out to be be an incorrect assumption.  The Jays announced today that Rasmussen is being demoted to make room for Valencia.  That's also why he pitched 2 innings last night -- to preserve the rest of the bullpen.  Depending on whether the bullpen is used heavily in the next few days, the Jays could recall another reliever from Buffalo within two or three days to restore the 7-man pen if necessary.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#290806) #
6 man bullpen alert. At least for one day. Rasmussen sent down.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#290807) #
I agree with Finch that Nolin is the highest level prospect I would be willing to trade and would prefer to keep him also if possible. Remember he had an ERA under 2 in Buffalo before the groin injury......maybe he can help us here before the end of season.

I would be more inclined to offer a package, if anyone available, of say Cole, Graveman, Smith. That is reasonably attractive though all 3 are well enough down our depth chart to be disposable.

However, just by waiting, potential salary dumps like Colon , Danks, possibly others could be available for nothing or next to nothing in August. I would take a flyer on Colon but not Danks, with his declining velocity and price tag....hoping the Yanks get stuck with him.

[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#290808) #
"....t looks to me like he's either pushing tolleson or reimold out of a regular job...."

So far, Valencia isn't pushing either of those guys out of a regular job.  He has replaced Rasmussen on the roster today.  When the Jays need a 7-man bullpen again, there's still a pretty good chance that Johnson gets DFA'd to make room on the roster, rather than Reimold or Tolleson.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#290809) #
"Last season I hated the Shields trade and Kansas City at least had him for 2 seasons, not 2 months."

But what is Wil Myers? A poor defensive corner OF (probable future dh) who has needed an unsustainable babip to start his career with a moderately above average batting line (and whose batting line has plummeted to below average as his babip has regressed to normal this year), with a worrying K rate to boot. And that's after only good not great performwnces at AA (132wrc+) and AAA (139wrc+).

Meanwhile, Shields is in the middle of a 2nd studhorse Ace season for the Royals. If these jays had Myers right now and Shields was available, i'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

And none of our prospects are close to what Myers was....even though Myers is no sure bet to be anything special himself.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#290810) #
Except it wasn't just Shields for Myers. It was Shields and Davis for Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery and Leonard. Odorizzi has been arguably better than Shields this season and if Kansas City does not grab one of the wild cards they may end the season with 0 playoff appearances and a reliever to show for the trade.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#290811) #
Age 21, AA

K.Drabek: 96.1ip, 7.1k/9, 2.9bb/9, 0.8hr/9, 3.64era, 3.78fip
A.Sanchez: 66.0ip, 7.8k/9, 5.5bb/9, 0.3hr/9, 3.82era, 4.19fip

Drabek peaked at #25BA and #16BP after that season. Sanchez was at #31 on bithblists last year but has dropped this year.

Both had deadly high 90s fastballs with movement, and an assortment of nasty breaking pitches.

Scouts told us not to worry about drabek's numbers, because his stuff was so good. They were wrong.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#290812) #
forget the numbers Ugly and just use your eyes. Sanchez and Drabek are in completely different worlds....no comparison whatsoever. It is not what they have done in the past, but what they will do in the future.....Drabek though is another name we could make available in a trade.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#290813) #
Odorizzi has been cleverly coddled by the rays this year. They use a quick hook to keep him averaging barely over 5ip per start, and have finessed the rotation to make sure he starts at the pitcher's paradise in TB (where he has a 2.58era in 70ip) as much as possible, and avoid starting him on the road (where he has a 5.73era in 45ip).

And of course Davis has become arguably the best RP in baseball this year, worth as much as an RP (1.7fwar, 2.3bwar) as Odorizzi has been as an SP (1.9fwar, 1.4bwar).

We should feel very lucky as jays fans that the rays made that trade - else we'd be chasing the rays for first place right now.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#290814) #
My eye test has drabek and sanchez as very similar, peter, and the scouts' eye tests had them similar as well.

Remember, drabek had some impressive mlb outings when he first came up, too.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#290815) #
Here's one important stat you forgot between Drebek and Sanchez:

TJ Surgeries:
Drebek: 2
Sanchez: 1

Apples to oranges
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#290816) #
"Astros Open To Trading Keuchel, McHugh, Cosart" says MLB Trade Rumors headline.

That said, Keuchel is who I'd go after.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#290817) #
I guess we'll just have to agree that our eyes see things differently. I see Sanchez as an extremely confident young man who has it together and does not  easily succumb to pressure. I also see a FB in the 97/98 range at times.....whereas my eyes see Drabek (before and now) as a nervous young man who does not handle pressure well and is easily fazed. He also cannot hit 97/98 and does not have as free and easy delivery as Sanchez. Again different worlds to my eyes at least.  The other fact I would mention is that minor league stats do not always transcend to the major league level. Drabek seems a good minor league guy who can't cut the majors while Sanchez appears to thrive on competition and will likely have a long and successful major league career.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#290818) #
If you want to chalk up the success of Myers last season or Odorizzi this season to luck while ignoring Davis' obviously sustainable .221 BABIP and 0% HR/FB that's your prerogative. My question stands, how many playoff appearances is Kansas City likely to see after having gambled their future and would they realistically have seen marginally different immediate results by standing pat?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#290819) #
Please provide time and date of Sanchez's T.J. surgery.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#290820) #
I will also admit I would never have expected to see a 21 year old pitcher that hasn't pitched 1 professional inning and has just undergone TJ surgery nor Brandon Morrow, he of the combined 200 IP over 3 seasons used as an argument for the team's pitching depth.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#290821) #
Sorry, typo...fat fingers on the iPhone.

Drebek 2
Sanchez 0

My point has now been lost in my comedic blunder :( #fail
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#290822) #
Astros Open To Trading Keuchel, McHugh, Cosart

I'd try to sell high on Keuchel too if I were the Astros. His HR/9 rate is a fishy 0.4, down from last year's 1.2.

[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#290823) #
as far as Morrow being a part of any future rotation, I don't see it. I believe the Jays will decline his 2015 option.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#290824) #
Where do I pick up my cuttlefish for correctly predicting last night that Rasmussen would be the one optioned to make room for Valencia? Surely the return of the 6 man bullpen is deserving of cuttlefish?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#290825) #
Yes Chuck, but is he or McHugh the best choice to go after.
[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#290826) #
Steve Tolleson's splits this year are something to behold. Against righties he's "hitting" .083/.170/.125/.295, and against lefties, he's a robust .355/.412/.579/.991

Valencia this year, .178/.245/.222/.467 vs righties and .354/.386/.492/.878 vs lefties.

From the other side, Francisco is .118/.205/.206/.411 vs lefties, and .260/.335/.578/.913 against righties.

Small sample sizes when you're looking at one year's splits, but not inconsistent with their history, although more extreme.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#290827) #
"Here's one important stat you forgot between Drebek and Sanchez:

TJ Surgeries:
Drebek: 2
Sanchez: 1"

Drabek had his best years after his first TJ surgery, and was already a bust long before his 2nd TJ surgery.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#290828) #
"I guess we'll just have to agree that our eyes see things differently. I see Sanchez as an extremely confident young man who has it together and does not easily succumb to pressure. I also see a FB in the 97/98 range at times.....whereas my eyes see Drabek (before and now) as a nervous young man who does not handle pressure well and is easily fazed. He also cannot hit 97/98 and does not have as free and easy delivery as Sanchez. Again different worlds to my eyes at least. The other fact I would mention is that minor league stats do not always transcend to the major league level. Drabek seems a good minor league guy who can't cut the majors while Sanchez appears to thrive on competition and will likely have a long and successful major league career"

Well, drabek certainly dialled up in the high 90s with ease. So your memory is probably failing you.

And drabek looked plenty poised and confident.....until he started getting hit around.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#290829) #
I'd give up Norris for Lester

WoW!! uglyone - I am bemused - After years of pontificating about how overrated Lester is & that RickyRo is the superior pitcher, you want Lester - it must be freezing in hell (Smile) - Also, Uehara didn't want to come to Canada a few yrs. ago, doubt that's changed.

I always felt that the record NHL deal that Rogers signed was bad news for the Jays & with a new boss (English?) whom may not be a fan, I'm not surprised about the lack of new funds from Rogers.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#290830) #
Didn't Drebek breeze through the system until his TJ? His struggles cames on the big stage in Toronto. I think with Sanchez, he's had struggles all the way and his demeanour seems as if he can handle failures more successful and with more humility.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#290831) #
The timing of this article at Fangraphs is fortunate given the discussion this afternoon....Jake Odorizzi and the 2014 Value of the Trade.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#290833) #
"If you want to chalk up the success of Myers last season or Odorizzi this season to luck while ignoring Davis' obviously sustainable .221 BABIP and 0% HR/FB that's your prerogative. My question stands, how many playoff appearances is Kansas City likely to see after having gambled their future and would they realistically have seen marginally different immediate results by standing pat?"

Forget luck. Shields has given KC two years of ace performance and davis two years of ace relief, and the guys they gave up haven't been nearly as valuable....and really don't project as top performers either.

The playoff question i think misses the point - KC misjudging the quality of their team is a different argument. The Jays are already in a playoff spot. They don't even need these kinds of guys to make the playoffs. We're talking about a shot at a championship here, and you're damn right that a trade that adds 5+ war to our team the next two years, like that one did for KC, is exactly the type of move we should be making.

Our core:

Bautista 33
Encarnacion 31
Reyes 31
Lind 30
Cabera 29

Dickey 39
Buehrle 35

Janssen 32



The time to go for it is now. And trading a couple non-elite prospects (from a position of depth) shouldn't scare us.

Especially when you realise that a guy like Lester nets us a good draft pick in the offseason anyways,
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#290834) #
"WoW!! uglyone - I am bemused - After years of pontificating about how overrated Lester is & that RickyRo is the superior pitcher, you want Lester - it must be freezing in hell (Smile) - Also, Uehara didn't want to come to Canada a few yrs. ago, doubt that's changed."

Hey, i'd give up norris for pre-meltdown Ricky, too!
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#290835) #
"....Especially when you realise that a guy like Lester nets us a good draft pick in the offseason anyways...."

No, he won't.  There's no comp pick for a team that acquires him in a trade mid-season.
[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#290836) #
Checked Rickey Henderson's page on Wikipedia - bit of an interesting story. He was a natural lefty, but he said that when he started playing ball as a kid, all of his friends were right handed, and so they swung the bat right handed, and he figured that was the way it was supposed to be done, so he started hitting right handed, too.

Similar story for me, but hockey. Moved to Canada at age 8, had a boy-crush on Rick Vaive, so I figured everyone shot right.. I still shoot right to this day (although haven't played in the last 10 years), despite being right-handed..
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#290837) #
Shields has given KC two years of ace performance and davis two years of ace relief

Actually, after an excellent year in relief for TB, KC thought they'd turn Davis back into a starter in 2013. And he stunk. So they followed TB's lead and returned Davis to the bullpen where, of course, he has been other worldly in 2014.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#290838) #
"Didn't Drebek breeze through the system until his TJ? His struggles cames on the big stage in Toronto. I think with Sanchez, he's had struggles all the way and his demeanour seems as if he can handle failures more successful and with more humility."

Not really, Drabek was the same kind of golden-armed scouts pet whose numbers never were elite at all.

Age 18 (Rk/Rk): 23.1ip, 5.4k/9, 4.2bb/9, 7.71era, 4.99fip
Age 19 (A / A): 54.0ip, 7.7k/9, 3.8bb/9, 4.33era, 5.39fip
--------- First TJ ---------
Age 20 (Rk/A-): 32.1ip, 4.5k/9, 3.3bb/9, 2.23era, 4.29fip

Note that Drabek was already popping up at the backend of top 100 lists at this point, even with the poor numbers, and even with TJ surgery, based only on his golden arm (kinda like norris did a couple years back).

Age 21 (A+): 61.2ip, 10.8k/9, 2.8bb/9, 2.48era, 1.80fip
Age 21 (AA): 96.0ip, 7.1k/9, 2.9bb/9, 3.64era, 3.78fip

This was Kyle's breakthrough year. Dominated A+ then held his own at age 22 in AA. He rocketed up the prospect charts and landed in some top 25s. It looked lkke the performance had finally caught up to his talent.

At this point, the phillies traded him for Roy Halladay.

And he proceeded to do this:

Age 22 (AA): 162.0ip, 7.3k/9, 3.8bb/9, 2.94era, 4.03fip
Age 22 (MLB): 17.0ip, 6.4k/9, 2.7bb/9, 4.76era, 4.08fip

Holding his own at age 21 in AA was fine, but not progressing at all at age 22 was not. Very mediocre AA numbers, and he was no longer young or inexperienced for the level.

But, he showed enough exciting "stuff" in his brief mlb stint, that the club pencilled him into to the next year's mlb rotation...and the fans were all excited about it.

It didn't go well:

Age 23 (MLB): 78.2ip, 5.8k/9, 6.3bb/9, 6.06era, 5.52fip
Age 23 (AAA): 75.0ip, 5.4k/9, 4.9bb/9, 7.44era, 6.39fip

Disaster. Unsurprisingly, his mediocre AA numbers didn't translate to MLB competence, despite his great stuff. For all intents and purposes, he was a bust from this point forward.

Age 24 (MLB): 71.1ip, 5.9k/9, 5.9bb/9, 4.67era, 5.62fip

More of the same awfulness the next year....at which point he went off for his second TJ surgery....but at this point, did it even really matter?




Now the question is.....wouldn't you have rather been the Phillies here?
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#290839) #
The playoff picture for both leagues looks interesting. Right now Oakland & LAA sure look safe, with big leads and both made recent moves to improve. Too bad one of them has to settle for a WC position.
I think Seattle has a lot of talent and also have a rich owner. A strong rotation of Felix, Iwakuma, C Young and Roenis Elias who is young. There are other young pitchers there too like Erasmo Ramirez & J Paxton. I expect them to do something. J Lester would be a great addition and I can see them successfully extending him.

The NL has 7 teams competing for 5 playoff positions. The LAD & Braves have rich owners. I am unsure about the wealth of the Cardinals ownership. SF seems to contend & win often. They do not have to do anything desperate. The Brewers, IMO have a small window. I do not know where they came from. Washington is reaping the benefits of their past high draft picks and should continue to do so. The do not know how good the Pirates are.

If J Lester is traded, the receiving team must resign him or win the WS IMO. A WS championship is priceless. When the season ends J Lester is a FA with no compensation. I do not like that gamble.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#290840) #
Uglyone, I would definitely prefer to be the phillies on that trade.

Bpoz, I think the only way he moves is if the other team negotiates a deal prior to the trade ie agree on players, 24 hour window to negotiate and if a deal is reached, the trade goes through. If that's the case, I would trade Norris and Nolin plus a bat like Nay.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#290841) #
Their stuff really doesn't seem comparable to me. The max velocity on Drabek's fastball has never been as high as Sanchez's average. It's a more fair comparison than it seems at first blush, since Drabek had some relief opportunities that could have padded his max velocity. Additionally, the movement on their fastballs is nothing alike. Third, their deliveries are nowhere near comparable (Sanchez looks free and easy, whereas Drabek had far more effort and if I recall right, a head-pull to the first base side).

I get what you're trying to say about the failure rates of even top prospects, but in how they get it done (or don't, in the case of Drabek, who couldn't get the ball in the zone more than 40% of the time) their stuff isn't comparable except in vague descriptions.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#290842) #
so I figured everyone shot right

Hockey muddies the issue, because hockey has always used the terms backwards. As a crude rule, in hockey right-handed people shoot left, left-handed people shoot right. This is just hockey's weird terminology. A hockey player's whose dominant hand is his or her right hand is described as a "left-handed" shooter - but it's the right hand that is always on the stick, the right hand that holds the stick, often by itself, when the puck is being carried.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#290843) #
"Forget luck. Shields has given KC two years of ace performance and davis two years of ace relief, and the guys they gave up haven't been nearly as valuable....and really don't project as top performers either."

Chuck has already pointed out the former is not entirely true and continuing to repeat the latter doesn't make it so. Myers was a top prospect for good reason, look at his age at each level where you have dismissed his performance. Last season alone, if the Royals has just kept and played Myers from the start of the season there was a strong likelihood that the marginal upgrade of Davis and Shields would have accounted for less than a win. This season with Myers hurt half the year the Royals may wind up 2+ wins better (assuming Myers doesn't come back and offer any value), finish .500 and lose Shields.

I fail to see where the playoff implications equates to missing the point. The Jays are not a guaranteed playoff team even with Lester much less a World Series lock. That will largely be determined by the health of Reyes, Encarnacion, Lind, Lawrie etc. The fact that you are using the Phillies as a comparison is interesting as they were legitimate World Series contenders in 2010, they only gave up the package they did with the understanding that Halladay would sign an extension, and four years later after emptying their farm system they are one of the worst teams in MLB with little chance to compete anytime in the foreseeable future.

Lastly, I am curious as to your definition of elite prospect. It would seem to me that players cracking Top 50 lists are exactly that.

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#290844) #
It sure feels good to be in contention at this point in the season. I am enjoying the 2 day benefit of Trade deadline talk. Exciting & thought provoking. I have my beer. Cheers!!!

So we are divided I think maybe 50/50 as to trading really good prospects for help. My stand is NO. We have some very talented youth Hutch & Stroman who are showing that they belong in the Majors. EE, Bautista, Cabrera, Buehrle, Dickey & Janssen are very short term so that window will close soon. There is other youth like Lawrie & Loup that are decent and will be here for a few years. The farm system looks quite good too.
I am happy to win 89-91 games this year and fairly consistently in future years. There will be better & worse years. I do not want to see 75 & 76 win years any more. That is how I sincerely feel. I also feel that our budget will not be a competitive advantage.

Life must be hard for Texas Ranger's fans, I do not know if their window has closed or this is just a bad year.


[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#290845) #
For trade rumours, I saw it mentioned that Texas has been digging into the A ball teams of the Jays.  Who do they have that the Jays would want and that they'd be willing to trade? (IE: no Yu Darvish).

Adrian Beltre - the only offensive player I see as possibly on the table and of interest, a 143 OPS+, age 35, $17 mil this year, $18 next and maybe $18 in 2016 (PA dependent).  Very expensive, locked in at 3B, would be nice but not happening
Alex Rios - there has been talk, but I don't see a fit with his 108 OPS+, $12.5 mil plus $1 mil buyout (or $13.5 next year) and preference for RF

Rotation: Outside of Yu Darvish I wouldn't take any of them for free this year
Bullpen: Neal Cotts has a 2.76 FIP thanks to 10K/9, 3.6 BB/9 0.4 HR/9. Anyone else any good they traded already

So basically Cotts for a minor prospect, or Beltre in a shocker deal (no idea what would happen to the lineup, guess Francisco/Valencia would be DH then Francisco to bench once Lind is back with Lawrie to 2B full time).  Big shocker would be a stack of prospects (Sanchez and many others) for Darvish.

Phillies also listed as digging into the Jays minors, but we all know who the Jays would be looking at there (Lee, Burnett, Hamels, Utley, maybe Ruiz), in their pen Jake Diekman is very tempting (12.7 K/9 4 BB/9 0.8 HR/9) but still in pre-arb years so can't imagine they'd trade him, Jonathan Papelbon they'd give up for nada (8.1 K/9 2.2 BB/9 0.2 HR/9 as he makes $13 mil this year, next year, and the year after (vesting option) - maybe give them Morrow & Romero to balance out this year and part of next plus a prospect of some kind.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#290846) #
Spifficus - a quick look at Drabek's pitch f/x page on fangraphs confirms that drabek regularly topped out at 96-97mph. And i think you're also misremembering the movement he had on it.

Remember, you don't have to take my word for it - Drabek was rated a better prospect than sanchez or norris ever have been by everyone who rates prospects, and it certainly wasn't due to his numbers.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#290847) #
I looked at fangraphs before posting - I'm not foolish enough to leave something verifiable to the arbitrary whims of my memory. When I looked, though, I took comfort in the fact that my memory didn't fail me... this time.

But, specifically, Sanchez is at an avg of 97.4. the Max-max of Drabek's fastball was 96.5 in 2010 (vs the current max for Sanchez at 99.0). Drabek certainly had good velocity on his fastball, but its max was 3.5mph below the max of Sanchez. As for movement, Drabek had 4 inches of run and 9 inches of rise on his 4-seamer, and about 8 inches of run and 5 inches of rise on his 2-seamer. Sanchez has 9 inches of run and 6 inches of rise on his 4-seamer. His 2-seamer is a medicine ball at 11 inches of run and 0.1 inches of rise.

I'm not arguing about rankings. I'm just arguing stuff. Actually, I'm just arguing that their fastballs are different beasts. Well, so are their curveballs (apparently Sanchez can generate a wee bit of spin on the ball).
[ Reply to This ]
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#290848) #
I absolutely love to watch Stroman pitch and I'm glad he wasn't traded for a quick fix. I think Sanchez has terrific stuff and I really want to see Pompey in a Jays uniform someday. I guess I'd make a timid GM, but it's good to have some young, cost-controlled players and would hate to see any of these 3 traded. In other news, Texas is beating New York again led by ... J.P. Arencibia ?
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#290849) #
Lester scratched from tomorrow's start which very much helps the Jays chances.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#290851) #
Anyone following Blue Jay Player/Prospect twitter accounts? That might let us know who's being traded, if it's happening.
[ Reply to This ]
Ron - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#290855) #
According to Buster Olney, it looks like Lester is headed to the Pirates for a package that includes Tabata and Hanson.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#290856) #
Arencibia so far tonight: 4/4, 2 2B, HR, 7 RBI. Very nice night for JP.
[ Reply to This ]
Ron - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#290857) #
Correction time, the Buster Olney twitter account reporting him heading to the Pirates is a fake account. No matter where he goes, I'm just glad the Jays won't be facing him.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#290858) #
ISLAND BOY - for the record, I wouldn't trade Stroman either.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#290859) #

I think with so many buyers and not a lot of sellers, the prices are going through the roof.  As much as I would like to see the Jays make the playoffs, I hope they don't give up the farm system for a rental player.

 

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, July 29 2014 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#290860) #
see, here I'm hoping that we aren't the contender that fails to make an upgrade this year.

if we're not going for it this year, we might as well blow it up and start fresh.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#290861) #
The market seems to be somewhat fluid, with Lester and Lackey becoming available (and possibly Hamels and other players as well). The big returns for Samardzija and others may be enticing teams to put more players on the block, creating a larger supply of stretch run acquisitions than was the case a couple of weeks ago.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#290862) #
So if the Jays don't make a move they're not going for it and they should blow it up? Even though they're currently sitting in a wild card spot and are just a couple games back of the AL East? Even though they're leading the AL East in run differential?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#290863) #
I just want the Jays to acquire someone we can say "Wow!" about.

As good as Stroman is, he's going to reach his limits sometime this season. Then who takes over in the quest for the Postseason? And don't tell me about someone in-house, unless you can guarantee he's as good as or better than Stroman, because anything else is valueless. Regardless of anything A.A. has said, Stroman has limits.

I don't know if Hutchison has reached his limits or will do so sometime later. He's doing well, but replacing him isn't possible in-house either. And replacing him is mandatory. Regardless of anything A.A. has said, Hutchison has limits.

I just think doing nothing is giving up and should get someone fired.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#290864) #
lies the challenge... how 'going for it' should the Jays be now and how much 'plan for the future' should they be?

Obviously we don't want an Expos 2002 situation, where every prospect imaginable was traded for any help (Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens traded in one trade).  But do we want a Jays 1988 (no trades, 2 games out in the end)?  In 1992 they traded almost 100% of Jeff Kent's career for 2 months of David Cone but it got a WS win.  In 1993 Derek Bell's career for Darrin Jackson for a couple months of Tony Fernandez and a WS ring.  But 2000 saw Michael Young's career for Esteban Loaiza.

Lots of risk involved.  The Jays are very close - just 2 1/2 out of first, in the 2nd wild card slot with a 2 game lead.  The right player could push them over the top quite easily.  6 of the 9 regular hitters are 30+ with 2 being free agents this winter.  Our closer is a free agent as well.  So maybe it is time to jump in and lose a few years of really good players potentially in order to go for it.  Trading with Boston is super-risky though as we'll see that player all the time. 

Myself?  If the Phillies would go for a Romero/Morrow/prospect for Papelbon (thus covering off a big part of the salary and giving the Jays a closer for next year) that would be nice and make the pen a lot more deadly.  I don't see Cliff Lee coming here without Philly paying almost all of that crazy salary ($37.5 mil for 2015 if option not picked up).  Chase Utley would be nice, but again very expensive (potentially $15 mil a year until 2018). 

Of course, AA is known for surprises so lets see what he comes up with.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#290865) #
I think a shot at the WS is worth one of our top prospects.

especially since our top prospects are so riddled with question marks.

and because I'm probably higher on Stroman/Hutch/Osuna/Castro than I've ever been on Sanchez/Norris.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#290866) #
Lester would be a great fit, if the price doesn't soar too high. The only thing that would bother me about trading for Lester is that his heart is evidently in Boston. That would be weird - sort of like having Farrell in the organization again.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#290867) #
Of our top two prospects, I'd trade one, their choice. Of the next three prospects, I'd trade one, their choice. I'd continue that way until enough was traded to do The Deal.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#290868) #
Stroman might be OK - I remember Dave Stieb, had just 26 pro innings pre 1979, then threw 231 at age 21 going from A+ to the majors, then 200+ outside of the strike year (188 in 1981) and 1987 (31 starts, 185 IP) until he blew his arm out at 33.  It can be done, massive inning jumps, it just requires the pitcher to be extremely good and repeatable in their delivery and I'd say Stroman has been extremely good but cannot say how repeatable his delivery has been but he hasn't shown any signs of weakness yet.  Heck, 4 of his last 5 games were 7+ IP, Heck, 11 starts and just 2 were under 6 IP and just one allowing more than 3 runs (2 allowing more than 2 runs).  That is nutty good.

No matter how much we want something done it does take two to tango.  Although worst case should be signing that Cuban OF who might be the answer to CF or LF next year and a solid RH mix this year (no prospect cost, salary should be workable if he is for real).  Of course, again, every other club is probably saying the same thing.

I'm hopeful for something to happen.  The minor trade to get a RH bat to mix in was good, getting another reliever or starter would be good now with a solid hitter to mix in as another great idea (Beltre would be sweet).
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#290870) #
Not too worried about Stro's innings....he only technically threw 120 innings last year, but he wasn't sitting on his butt those two months he was suspended - he was pitching regularly in extended spring training those two months, which has to be at least 30 innings, maybe more. That's 150ip at the lowend last year to jump up from...which means 180-190 probably isn't an issue.....and he's only at 110 right now.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#290871) #
Yeah. His time as a reliever helped him acclimate as well as help reduce his innings.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#290872) #
Thanks, my friends, I was worried, not so much now.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#290873) #
Other organizations are sniffing at the corpse, wondering if Jon Lester can be extracted. (In a perfect world, this would actually happen before Wednesday. The guy's having outstanding year, it would be nice not to see him.)
Anyway, the technical term for all of this is "Good Times."

Called it, Magpie.  A round of cuttlefish for the house, courtesy of Magpie and Hodgie.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#290874) #
Vin Scully is coming back in 2015, and thank Zeus for that. Scully's first year in the Dodgers booth was also Connie Mack's last year in the A's dugout. So one of those two guys have been at the ballpark for every major league season since 1886. Which is rather cool.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#290875) #
Saw that on Twitter, by the way. I wasn't there. Really.
[ Reply to This ]
mathesond - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#290878) #
Cosmically, it seem Boston holding back Lester makes up for Texas holding back Darvish vs. Baltimore a couple of weeks ago...
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#290879) #
As of this moment, Arencibia's sputtering career is bookended by two glorious games. A 4-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI game to launch his career. And last night's 4-for-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI effort. As sandwiches go, the bread, at least, is excellent.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#290880) #
Right on Chuck.
[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#290883) #
If you go up to the plate with the intent of hitting every pitch out of the ballpark, you'll manage to hit a few home runs.

Arencibia seems to put on a power show just often enough to make teams believe that some day, some how, he'll learn the difference between a ball and a strike.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#290885) #
JPA's first two years were oretty decent as far as first two years go. Everything went wrong last year but he still has a decent chance to salvage a good career.
[ Reply to This ]
joeblow - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#290889) #
Good move by the Jays to pretend to be interested in Lester and help get him scratched for tonight. Nevermind that 15 other teams are "interested" - I prefer this version of the story.
[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#290890) #
The crazy thing about Arencibia is that he hasn't improved at all during his time in the majors, and even went downhill a little after his rookie season. I don't know if he doesn't have the ability to adapt his approach or is just too stubborn, but it's tough to find reasons for optimism now. Maybe there's a hitting coach somewhere out there who can get through to him.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#290891) #
If not for A.A.'s misjudgement to start the Season with the existing bullpen, we might still be in 1st Place. Of course, he didn't know that Santos would forget how to pitch. He didn't know that Delabar would lose his control, but there were indicators in the second half of last year. He didn't know that the Bullpen, in general, would have performance issues. Or did he know and decide that in-house solutions were available. That's usually a mistake, because anyone that good is usually pencilled in to start the Season on the Team.

If not for the Hitters forgetting how hit early in June, we would still be in 1st Place. Of course injuries didn't help, but if they don't try to hit the 5-run HR every at bat, they might remember that what the hitting coach said - it works. Was this A.A.'s fault? Yes, with an aging roster, this must be expected as the norm. Could he have done something about the in the Offseason? Maybe, but he's never (almost never) willing to meet the price - every GM always overvalues his players and prospects.

Will this Trade Deadline be different? It better be, but I doubt it.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#290893) #
"Maybe, but he's never (almost never) willing to meet the price - every GM always overvalues his players and prospects."

Apparently in the land of generalizations the Marlins and Mets trades never happened.....

[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#290895) #
Damn, I would have liked Masterson. What would our equivalent of James Ramsay have been?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#290896) #
Yes, but after any "Blockbuster Trades" anyone makes, there always things left undone. For every success, there seems to be a failure. Of course, in A.A.'s case, having an unbridled disaster take failure's place is excessive. The list of undone grew.

All I know is A.A. continually says he's unwilling to meet the price in many deals.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#290897) #
Dalton Pompey might be our Craig Ramsey equivalent.
[ Reply to This ]
MatO - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#290899) #
Masterson has been dreadful this year. Ramsay is a 24 year-old repeating AA turning 25 in December. Blue Jay equivalent? Pillar? I think Pillar is probably a better player though.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#290900) #
Masterson is awful this yesr, has had a serious drop in velo, and is a good tj candidate.

Ramsey is 24yr old in AA. I'd say his jays comp is kevin pillar.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#290901) #
Lol. Brilliant post, MatO!
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#290902) #
ERA+ 68 and he makes $9.7 million.

I don't see the point in getting a 6th starter now. An ace would be great, but it's obviously not happening.

Is a second baseman needed? A top reliever could help steady the rotation but maybe Sanchez takes care of that.

[ Reply to This ]
mathesond - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#290904) #
And, if the Jays wind up doing nothing major, are they good enough to beat the teams that do trade for someone like Lester?
[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#290906) #

Masterson has very pronounced splits. While he's struggled this year as a starter, he has the potential to be a very effective ROOGY in the bullpen in the playoffs, if the Cardinals make it that far and he's not in their playoff rotation. In that respect he mahas the potential upside as a back-end SP addition that some similar names on the market don't have.

[ Reply to This ]
MatO - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#290907) #
Pompey would do well to have the length of career that Craig Ramsay had with the Buffalo Sabres but I'm hoping for a little more star power from Dalton.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#290908) #
methinks Lester will go to NL......Orioles don't want to give up one of their top 2 pitching prospects either and unlike the Jays, they have little else.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#290909) #
just as I post this, I see it appears likely O's closing in on deal for Lester....lol

it does not appear, however, that any of top prospects are involved. A rental should not be able to command even one top prospect....maybe a couple of A- types pr B';s.

MLBTR saying MIguel Gonzalez may be going to Boston.

[ Reply to This ]
Ron - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#290910) #
Some interesting nuggets:

- In less than 2 weeks, the Jays have a big 3 game series at Seattle. The Jays will miss King Felix and Iwakuma. This is huge.

- The Jays are tied with the Rangers for fewest extra inning games this season with 4. The O's have 15, Yanks have 11, Rays have 7, and Red Sox have 14. With the reduced innings, there might be some sort of benefit to the bullpen in terms of health/reducing the need to call up a AAA arm for the following game.

- The Jays have played the least amount of doubleheaders in the AL East.

Jays - 1
O's - 3
Yankees - 2
Rays - 2
Red Sox - 2

- If you're one of the fans that complains about pitches taking too long to throw between pitchers, you must be happy with the current rotation.

Buehrle is the fastest stater in baseball and Dickey is number 2. Stroman is tied for 13th quickest.

Here are the Pace numbers for the Jays starters.

Buehrle: 17.1
Dickey: 18.1
Stroman: 19.9
Hutchison: 22
Happ: 22.6

The slowest starter in baseball is David "Human Rain Delay" Price at 26.3 seconds between pitches.
[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#290915) #
If it's Pillar I do that deal, obviously not for Pompey. I've watched Masterson a few times and it seems to me that it's a combination of being snakebitten and needing to adjust to the velocity drop. I think he can turn things around.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#290916) #
"I just think doing nothing is giving up and should get someone fired."

Maybe whoever at Rogers is keeping the purse strings closed?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#290917) #
If those Roger's nitwits (Front Office bigwigs) don't open the purse strings A.A. can't do anything significant.

If the status quo was maintained, chances of The Jays making the post season are very good. Odds of advancing future into the postseason are much smaller. If everyone we are competing with acquires help and the Jays do not, the chances of making the postseason drop very significantly into the unlikely category.

I'm surprised that a newspaper isn't running the Headline: "Rogers Killing Blue Jays Postseason Chances." Probably all are owned by those that work together owning MLSE.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#290919) #
Holy crap. Check out the double play the Giants turned against Pittsburgh this afternoon. Runners on second and third, one out, the pitcher throws Ball Four - and the Giants get two outs and escape the inning.

Clint Hurdle: "That's the first time I've ever seen us walk into a double play."

[ Reply to This ]
Beyonder - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#290920) #
Melky didn't touch home plate after the tag. So even if the call is overturned, can he be called safe?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#290921) #
So do we send the Orioles GM a thank you note for not having to face Lester tonight?
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#290922) #
So even if the call is overturned, can he be called safe?

Sure. It's like defensive interference.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#290923) #
That was an embarassment of a series for the red sox. They should be ashamed.

Of course, i savored every last humiliating bit of it.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 30 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#290924) #
Go to TSN right now: audio Podcast with Richard Griffin. He said something I've always thought, "This year, is what all those second tier signing Boston made (the year before last) should have been like." Everyone had a career year or just overachieved last year.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#290925) #
Division standings

1. ALE +12
2. ALW +6
3. NLC +5
4. NLE +1
5. ALC -1
6. NLW -23
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#290926) #
I like these standings...
Wild Card: Jays have 2nd WC, 3 game lead on Yankees and Mariners, 3 1/2 on KC, 5+ on all others.
Division: Jays 2 1/2 behind Baltimore and on a 5 game winning streak (sadly Baltimore is on a 3 game streak)

Hopefully Boston pulls it together for the weekend vs NY, while Houston goes into a slump vs the Jays and the Mariners get hot vs Baltimore.  Now that'd make for a fun weekend :)

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#290927) #
Five out of six in New York and Boston.  A 6 man bullpen.  Inspiring rookies.  Handy role players.  These are good times indeed.  Let them roll.

I do not see any obvious acquisitions for the Blue Jays now.  Obviously, it would be great to have a star second baseman or an ace starter.  I doubt though that the acquisition price would be worth it for these players. The club does have to work out what is happening with Rasmus and Gose, once Bautista moves back to the outfield for good.  I suppose that the club also has to decide the left-handed second base situation with Kawasaki and Goins once Lawrie returns.  These decisions can be made in a week or three (playoff rosters become a consideration- and isn't that a nice issue to have to take account of?).
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#290928) #
Lester to the A's (not official yet).

A scary team.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#290929) #
It now looks like Lawrie may be back before Encarnacion and Lind.  If so, the Kawasaki/Goins situation will come up for resolution first perhaps.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#290930) #
I wonder if Lawrie wouldn't just squeeze out Dan Johnson. Until EE and Lind return, perhaps the current 3B platoon of Francisco/Valencia becomes the 1B platoon. Lawrie goes to 3B, one of Kawaksaki or Goins platoon with Tolleson at 2B, and the other LHB sticks around as a backup infielder, to be shuffled off to Buffalo if/when the team decides a 7th reliever is a requirement.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#290931) #
The Sox got Cespedes and Gomes for Lester. Quite the trade.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#290932) #
Lester and Gomes for Cespedas.

Interesting.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#290933) #
Lester to Oakland for Gomes and Cepedes (MLB TRADE RUMORS).
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#290934) #
That would make sense, Chuck.  Gibbons apparently does not have high regard for Johnson's defensive ability.  I guess that there are quite a few different possibilities- it's a fluid situation.

[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#290935) #
I should also mention that in my theorized roster formulation, Gose/Reimold platoon at "DH", with Gose really playing the outfield, letting one of Cabrera, Rasmus or Bautista DH against RHP.

I'd still like to see Reyes DH against RHP once in a while if Goins and Kawasaki are both on the roster.

I think that EE will eventually bump Reimold since Valencia now makes Reimold redundant. I'm not sure who Lind will bump, probably one of Goins/Kawsaki/7th reliever.

[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#290936) #
Boston also gets a competitive balance pick along with Cespedes for Gomes and Lester. They said on the broadcast last night that Boston wanted current mlb talent, not prospects, for Lester. They got a heck of a player.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#290937) #
Doesn't Cespedes only have a No Arbitration clause in his contract? That'd only give the Sox 1 more year of control, if that's the case.
[ Reply to This ]
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#290938) #
Boston fans have to be pretty thrilled with Ben joining Theo in cashing in on the Billy Beane legacy pillage of Oakland's future.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#290939) #
So, the A's outfield situation is a bit strange now.  They have Burns, Gomes, Gentry, Crisp and Reddick.  Burns is a switch-hitter who converted later in his minor league career from being a right-handed hitter; he is still much better hitting rom the right-side.  Gentry and Gomes are ideal platoon players also from the right-side.  It seems to me that they have lost quite a bit on the field. 

Lester has been great in 2014 so far, but whether he will be significantly better than his career numbers from now on is a questionable proposition.  Still the odds are that he will be pitch as well (or better) than Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir, with the fine defence behind him.  Jeff Samardzija is now a 4th starter and in hindsight, I am pretty sure that the A's will regret the trade for him. 

Overall, I suspect that the A's have improved their chances of winning in the playoffs, but not as much as might be suspected. For the Red Sox, this is clearly a great trade.  They have Cespedes in 2015.  They will probably move him to right-field straight away (I can't see him playing the wall). 





[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#290941) #
OK. Cespedes for Lester and Gomes. Interesting.

It has been thought that Delabar and Santos lead into Janssen. Oops. Who does that now? No one on this team, as good as they are, has that degree of trust yet. A Reliever for the 8th Inning is an acquisition A.A. could make.

If you are depending on Morrow to be something important, I'd suggest not making any significant personal decisions, you may not like the result.

I still believe A.A. needs another Starter, preferably a Front-Line Starter. I am not confident enough in the Starting Five to finish the Season, someone might get hurt or hit a wall. To ask this same group to pitch in the Postseason is overly optimistic. They don't have enough firepower to make a difference.

Unfortunately Baltimore is finished with Oakland this year.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#290942) #
If Price isn't on the market, what impact SPs can the Jays gets? I suppose Hamels, but that's an expensive contract to pick up.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#290943) #
Let's try this again. Lester, Gomes and $1.0 MM for Cespedes and 2015 Competitive Balance 'B' pick.

Any chance Boston had of re-signing Lester is gone. Any chance of Boston being in the Postseason next year just became remote. Lester will go after the biggest payday with a proven winner - Boston ain't it.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#290944) #
Chuck, I guess that it makes sense that Valencia takes up the RH half of the DH platoon when Lind returns.  So, as of July 31, your hypothetical playoff position player roster would include as the regular staring lineup against RHPs (let's say): Lind, Navarro, Encarnacion, Kawasaki, Reyes, Lawrie, Cabrera, Rasmus, Bautista, leaving Thole, Francisco, Goins, Valencia, Tolleson and Gose as possible bench options.  It looks to me like you've still got one too many position players.  You'll definitely need Gose or Pillar so that you have an option in centerfield.  It seems to me that for playoff purposes, you have to choose between Francisco and the second left-handed middle infielder and that Francisco is the clear choice, given the fact that both Kawasaki and Goins can play shortstop and you have a whole range of possibliities at second base.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#290945) #
Any chance Boston had of re-signing Lester is gone. Any chance of Boston being in the Postseason next year just became remote. Lester will go after the biggest payday with a proven winner - Boston ain't it.

No question.  Boston's record over the last 10 years has been appallingly bad.  I don't know why Lester might choose to return to an organization which has such bumpkins running it...
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#290946) #
Boston has a lot of great arms in the system. The impact of losing Lester will be felt for one year, but you would expect some of their arms to be big league efficient within the next 2 years.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#290947) #
If A.A. must trade $$$ for $$$, he should have traded $$$ away earlier. Someone would have taken Romero and a prospect for $1.00.

Houston is open to trading Starters, and they're all making next to nothing. I don't think A.A. can get a Starter unless he has some room to work, so he might not try.

The difference between $140.0 MM and the Jays current salary (insurance usually pays salaries in case of injury?) would allow A.A. to pick up $8.79 MM (initial salary) without having to move salary.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#290948) #
Mike, I do concur that the playoff roster construction will be a challenge. Carrying two platoons (DH, 2B or 3B) means that something does have to give, be it Gose, Francisco, the 5th SP or an extra reliever.

I guess Francisco's fate is predicated on Lawrie's role. If he's a 2B/3B swingman, then Francisco would get lots of starting at-bats. If Lawrie is to become a fulltime 3B, then Francisco is squeezed out of getting more than pinch-hitting at-bats. And given his platoon splits, he'd often invite LH relievers anyway. So he might be a luxury, in terms of playoff roster space, that the team can't afford. He'd be the team's first injury replacement, however.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#290949) #
Oakland also has left-handed hitting Stephen Vogt who can play left-field.  Vogt has been going ape willies both in the minor leagues and in the major leagues at age 29/30 and maybe the A's have decided that they can get comparable production from a Vogt/Gomes platoon that they got from Cespedes.  It seems improbable to me given Vogt's record, but you do have to acknowledge the A's success in developing this kind of talent.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#290950) #
Someone would have taken Romero and a prospect for $1.00.

Heading into the 2014 season, Romero was owed $15.6M. Your position is that another team would willingly assume that expense were the Jays simply to include a prospect? That would have to be one hell of a prospect.

[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#290951) #
The A's now also have Sam Fuld. They traded Milone to the twins for him.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#290952) #
Don't be surprised if LA trades Matt Kemp; picks up Cole Hamels and calls up Joc Pederson.
[ Reply to This ]
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#290953) #
I suspect Beane wasn't too thrilled with paying Cespedes big bucks for the .300 OBP he's put up the last two seasons. Oddly, he was a much better hitter at the Coliseum than he was on the road.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#290954) #
Not sure what boston is doing here. They get one year of a 30yr old mediocre corner OF for 10m. What's the plan there?

I guess nobody was offering up any decent prospects at all.
[ Reply to This ]
PeteMoss - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#290955) #
Kemp has negative value. Not really going to get anything for him unless they cover a ton of the contract.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#290956) #

Billy Beane has the ability to find pieces that fit.  I didn't think that Cespedes fit.  He will be good fit in Boston.  (which pisses me off)

I wouldn't call it a raiding of the future of Oakland.  How many years now have they lost peices and still manage to be near the top?  I think Billy Beane regrets not going for it in the Tejada\Giambi years and is trying to get as many peices as he can to get that World Series. 

[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#290957) #
That's a great trade for Boston - not only do they get a player in his prime & reasonable contract & Boston has the money to extend him but Oakland is a team unlikely to resign either Lester or Gomes, who could both go back to Boston next year & with no QO attached - Boston will be a contender next year.

Detroit or Oakland (hopefully both) will be one disappointed team this year - both have gone all in & expectations are sky high.

with 2 excellent teams with outstanding starting pitching, it's another reason why I hope the Jays don't sell the farm as even if you were to add an ace, the Jays starting pitching doesn't compare ( of course, they can still win)

I'm okay if the Jays only do a minor addition or make no moves - hopefully the injured players provide a boost - also, please don't rush them back - last year both Lawrie & Reyes were rushed back & struggled - let them get some rehab swings.
[ Reply to This ]
GregH - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#290958) #
Not sure why a couple of posts have mentioned Ricky Romero as a possible trade chip.
According to the Toronto Star, he had right knee surgery on or about June 19th with a projected recovery time of six months.
Apart from any performance issues, I don't see how Romero could have any trade value whatsoever now. The Jays might as well wait out the recovery time and see if the surgery gives Romero a chance of regaining any of his previous form for 2015.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#290959) #
Cespedes' BABIP has been .275 the last two years (after being .325 in his first year).  I am pretty sure that he will do quite a bit better than that in Boston.  I'd venture a guess at .315.  He is particularly vulnerable to the infield popup and playing in Boston will really help with that.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#290960) #
IMO if you have to anticipate Lester re-signing with boston next year to make it a good trade, then its probably not a good trade. Has a traded FA ever re-signed with a team?

If they wanted cespedes they could have just waited a year to sign him as a free agent. It's not like he's going to extend for for a discount. And is boston going to want to extend him for 5yrs/$75m as 31yr old, when he's been a 3war type guy in his prime years?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#290961) #
What?

Boston gets a free Draft pick. It might be in the low 70's and not the low 30's as would happen if QO made. They basically get a Juan Francisco who plays the OF, but with just one more year on his contract. They save money on this deal.

It's possible after all the drama surrounding Lester recently, Cherrington might have felt he had to trade him, and took whatever the last decent offer was. Anyone got a better quess?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#290962) #
Forgot about the Knee surgery, but the opportunity has always been there to trade him, whether or not there was a market for him (and the bribe).

This was the knee surgery he should have had one or two years ago?
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#290963) #
I don't see how Romero could have any trade value whatsoever

Addition by subtraction. Trading Romero is the equivalent of trading away a prospect for money. With the added bonus that Romero could eventually figure it out.  I just don't see that trade happening. Especially not during the season.
[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#290965) #
I think Lester does go back to Boston personally. I think they decided early on to play out the season and trade him if Boston was out of contention. The rest of the back and forth on salary etc is just media creation.

I wonder if Oakland was up against a salary limitation and Cespedes was the only way they could give value and take on Lester's contract.

Still, I think they are going to miss him more than they think. Even with his low obp he was a guy in that lineup that pitchers would fear.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#290966) #
Do you do the following trade?

To Tampa:
Aaron Sanchez
Daniel Norris
Dalton Pompay
Ricky Romero

To Toronto:
David Price
Desmond Jennings
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#290967) #
Romero I see as a substitute for getting cash back for taking on a contract.  I wonder if Philly would go for Romero for Papelbon... Pap is owed $13 mil this year and next with a $13 mil vesting option for 2016.  Romero is owed $7.5 this and next plus a $600k buyout for 2016 (somehow doubt anyone would pick up the $13 mil option for that year).  Then the Phillies save a bit over $6 mil (potential $19 mil) and lose a guy who has been a bit of a headache for them (performs well but complains about not being on a contender).  Would have to toss in a prospect but not a great one I suspect.  Would certainly help the pen by having a two closer situation ala the old Henke/Ward days plus be set at the end of the pen for 2015 if Janssen doesn't resign.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#290968) #
Still, I think they are going to miss him more than they think. Even with his low obp he was a guy in that lineup that pitchers would fear.

Well, they didn't fear him enough to walk him. His walk rate is the lowest on the team.

[ Reply to This ]
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#290969) #
Allen Craig and Joe Kelly from Cards to Boston for Lackey. Multiple sources.
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#290970) #
Not impressed with returns Red Sox are getting so far. And I think there is no chance Lester goes back. Once he hits open market, there will be offers far in excess of Boston has offered. Don't see this team contending seriously for awhile, nor Yanks. O's are basically a one and done so they need to win now. I believe O's are set to lose 7 to free agency in nest 2 years and there farm has two pitching prospects (both injured) an not much else

Real shake up in progress in the east.

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#290971) #
Good trade by Oakland. I assume that J Lester is now the best SP in Oakland's rotation.
Oakland probably makes the playoffs with or without Lester. But to win it good SPs are essential. Lester can be that guy. C. Carpenter was for St Louis, SF had someone...M Cain or T Lincecum and most other teams in the playoffs would have someone.
My gut feeling tells me that good defense is more important in the playoffs than good offense, but I do not know. Luck is probably the most important thing and you cannot acquire that.
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#290972) #
The A's seem to be a lock to make the playoffs, but under the new format they aren't yet guaranteed more than a chance to play a 163rd game.  I suspect Oakland is extremely motivated to hold off the Angels and win their division, and avoid the prospect of a one-game playoff while the East winner, which is almost surely to have a poorer record, waltzes into a seven-game series.  As a fallback, this gives them additional starting pitching options for that one game playoff, in the event that they slip behind the Angels.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#290974) #
Boston wanted a power bat.

Was Lester not good enough for a QO?

[ Reply to This ]
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#290975) #
Kelly is a back of the rotation guy. Craig was great the 2 previous years and awful this year. Craig's BABIP in 2013 .372 and 2014 .282. Low walk, low power guy who needs a high BABIP to be good.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#290977) #
I guess the traded pick compensates for the QO pick, but now Lester is an unencumbered free agent which will make it harder for Boston to resign him. 
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#290978) #
According to mlbtraderumours, the Reds have put Latos on the block. He's arb eligible this year. That's a move I'd pursue hard if I'm AA.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#290979) #
Do you do the following trade?

To Tampa:
Aaron Sanchez
Daniel Norris
Dalton Pompay
Ricky Romero

To Toronto:
David Price
Desmond Jennings

In a heartbeat.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#290980) #
A.A. tried to acquire Latos prior to his trade to Milwaukee, so I'm sure he's talking to them.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#290981) #
I would not be interested in Mat Latos.  Since he came back from injury in June, he had one good start and then has been mediocre.  He has been surviving on the basis of a .206 BABIP (with a line drive rate over 22%).  The Reds defence is good and he's been lucky.  Obviously if you can get him for a low A prospect in a salary dump, I would take him but that's about it. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#290984) #
I can't help but think we just saw boston trading away their best players for other teams' depth guys, and not even saving much money in the process.

Its weird.
[ Reply to This ]
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#290987) #
Much like Richard I'll do that trade without losing any sleep.

Price is too good, proven in the AL East and has playoff experience. Jennings is no slouch either.

[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#290988) #
I've got to think that if the Jays could find anyone to take Romero's salary, they would have done it by now. And with him out for the season with knee surgery, it's hard to imagine anyone even thinking about it until they see him in spring training.

$7.5 million in 2015 for a guy who has seemingly lost the ability to pitch at the major league level, or even AAA. You'd have to send some very good players with him to persuade another team to pick up half his salary.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#290989) #
Cespedes a depth player?  I don't think so.  You can certainly hold the opinion that the Sox did not get value for Lester (how much gnashing of teeth might be going on in the caves of SOSH I can only imagine), but Cespedes is pretty clearly a significant everyday regular player at least.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#290994) #
Tigers get price, As get Lester, Jays get......Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris.

Woot.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#290995) #
Well, mike, don't want to get into semantics. By depth i mean non-core. And i don't consider a corner OF with 115wrc+ and 3ish war a core top of the lineup player.....at least not for a good team.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#291003) #
Would Hutchison and Gose be an equivalent package to the one that the Rays just got? Include an IF prospect as well like Nay?

I think clearly the Jays were not allowed to take on more money. I feel bad for us fans, and the players in the club house.

In a 7 games series, do the Jays beat:

Oakland: Lester, Jeff Samardzija, and Sonny Gray?
Detriot: Verland, Price, Scherzer?

Probably not. If the Jays win the wild card playoff vs. LA (assuming we make it), we don't play Baltimore first round. I hope they make the playoffs and do well but looking at that pitching, it'll be tough. It would be a classic Offense vs. Pitching match up with pitching typically prevailing in the post season.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#291005) #
No moves for the jays. Dang.

Well, i still like our odds to take the division, but all playoff matchups just got much harder. Sure hope that the "playoffs are a lottery" theory is true.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#291006) #
There were a lot of competitive balance picks traded at the deadline today. Does this defeat the purpose of these picks?
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#291008) #
Might be a good deal for Tampa looking at what they got.  Nick Franklin has hit well in the minors and at 23 is ML ready I'd think despite not hitting well for Seattle this year (95 OPS+ last year, 5 this year in just 52 PA) and plays SS/2B.  Drew Smyly is a pitcher who is 25 and has a lifetime 121 ERA+ with a mixture of starts and relief games.  Willy Adames, a SS who is 18 and in A ball hitting 269/346/428.    That gives them 2 ML ready guys and a youngster who could be something if his defense is any good (no idea).  I know I would have trouble betting against Tampa in a trade.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#291021) #
Advanced Scout is out.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#291023) #
I over value our prospects and do not know much about other teams prospects. My meaningless thought...Seattle? received that hotshot hitter for M Pineada. I wonder if he will work out as well as that Jay's OF superstar prospect from way back. Both were Latin hotshots.I cannot think of his name but his call up upset George Bell. Who is he?

If Detroit & Oakland overpaid, they should. They have to go for it and I commend them for having the guts. So who plays more games against Detroit & Oakland, us or Baltimore?
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#291027) #
Seattle? received that hotshot hitter for M Pineada. I wonder if he will work out as well as that Jay's OF superstar prospect from way back. Both were Latin hotshots.I cannot think of his name but his call up upset George Bell. Who is he?

For Pineda, Seattle received Jesus Montero, a one-time defensively challenged catcher and now defensively challenged first baseman. He received a 50-game drug suspension. He came to spring training overweight. And he has been relegated to the minors.

I believe George Bell was upset about the ripple effect Sil Campusano's arrival had the very year after Bell won Alan Trammell's MVP award. Campusano was to be the team's new center fielder, causing Moseby to move to LF and Bell to DH. Then we learned about the colour of Bell's posterior. Purple, I believe it was. Campusano washed out of baseball shortly thereafter. Magpie probably remembers the details much better than I.

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#291064) #
Thanks Chuck. Those are the guys. I would have hated to lose S Campusano & loved to get J Montero.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#291068) #
Ah, the old Sil Campusano controversy.  How not to run a club 101 that spring.

The Jays were sooo close to the playoffs in 1987 - lost on the final day of the season.  Bell won MVP while in LF, but Jays decided to move him full-time to DH.  On a team that had Cecil Fielder and Fred McGriff looking for a new DH was the last thing it needed - McGriff took over 1B in 1988 (157 OPS+) while Fielder was given just 190 PA (100 OPS+) while platooning with Rance Mulliniks (143 OPS+) so Kelly Gruber (113 OPS+) could take over 3B full time.  This to make room for a kid who just reached AAA in '87 for the first time while hitting 264/333/451 at age 21 with a 47-110 BB-SO ratio.  Solid looking and you want to break in but the Jays didn't even call him up for September in '87 which was a mistake given what happened next.

In 1988 he played 13 of the first 16 games, hitting 143/172/321.  He'd end the season getting into 72 games with a 79 OPS+ and a -0.1 WAR overall.  He never again played for the Jays, getting another 130 PA for the Phillies over 2 seasons after being lost in the Rule 5 draft pre-1990.  Many fans were frustrated as a Canadian kid, born in Toronto, was also a hotshot prospect then - Rob Ducey.  Ducey got just 63 PA that year and had a 120 OPS+ in that limited time (age 23) after hitting 284/388/462 in AAA the season before and having a September call up  in '87 where he didn't do so well (52 OPS+ and an argument with Cito Gaston which hurt him).  Ducey didn't get 100 PA in the majors until 1997 and had a lifetime 91 OPS+ - always wondered 'what if' with him ... in 1988  if the Jays felt the need to do that 'open up a slot' thing then a platoon of Ducey/Campusano would've made a ton of sense (Campy RH, Ducey LH hitters) as the Jays did that regularly back then (see McGriff/Fielder in '87).  On a team that finished just 2 games out of a playoff slot it is easy to see the controversy being a part of why they didn't make it.  That spring was so full of stories of Bell telling Jimy Williams (the manager) to kiss his purple butt and stuff like that it was astounding.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#291073) #
Thanks for the memories John.
[ Reply to This ]
Jays vs Red Sox | 273 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.