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This will be a different kind of challenge.


In Boston, the Jays massacred a lifeless shell of a good team. The Red Sox pretty clearly just wanted to get the games over with so they could find out who had been traded. Houston is the inverse: the Astros may suck, but they suck with vitality and moxie. Never mind that they're 20 games under .500 and they've been outscored by 99 runs. They're coming off a spirited series win over the A's in which they outscored the World Series favorites 19-11, pounded all three of Oakland's starters, and almost swept them altogether.

(And I know absolutely nothing about these guys, so I figured it would be a good time for the advance scout to make a cameo...)

Tonight's starter is Jarred Cosart, a native of nearby League City who grew up rooting for the Astros. He's a righty with a turbo-sinker and a hard curveball. The Astros obtained him from Philly in the Hunter Pence trade. This is Cosart's second season in the majors, and he's been in Houston's starting rotation all year. He has basically no platoon splits this year, and had a pronounced reverse split in 2013. As you'd expect, he is a groundball pitcher; the Astros' relatively weak infield defense does him no favors, but he's hung in there and posted a solidly positive WPA for the second year in a row.

Friday, it's marginal prospect Collin McHugh, who may be too smart for baseball and, due to his limited velocity, profiles best as a swingman or potential #5 starter. The Mets and Rockies each invested about 25 big-league innings in proving his limitations, and the Astros claimed him off waivers from Colorado this past winter for the very reasonable price of nothing. After a few weeks in Oklahoma City, he got another big-league shot, punched out 12 Mariners in his Astro debut, and didn't look back. He's got a 28% K rate and a 3.45 ERA. D'oh. Anyway, he's a righty who throws in the low 90s and has a nice curveball and slider, both of which he can command. And his blog is terrific. The post that's currently at the top (it's from May) has some lucid reflections on failure, perspective, and security that many fans would do well to absorb. "Baseball has a way of evening things out over the long run...a concept that's hard to grasp when you, as a player, don't know how long that run will be. Before, in my career, I would worry that one bad outing would define me. That if I pitched poorly I would get sent down, and if I got sent down or designated enough, teams would have a bad opinion of me. It was a self fulfilling prophecy." Come to think of it, some GMs could take the hint too.

Saturday, it's lefty Brett Oberholtzer. He came to Houston from the Braves in the Michael Bourn trade of 2011. He throws around 90, has a killer changeup, and consciously adds and subtracts on his breaking ball depending on the game situation. Like Cosart, Oberholtzer is in his second season in the majors, though he's seesawed back and forth between Houston and OKC a few times. He's been a league-average starter in the bigs. He threw 6.2 innings in a win over Oakland on Monday.

Sunday, it's Houston's Opening Day starter, the veteran Hawaiian-born righty Scott Feldman. He is easily the highest-paid player on the 2014 Astros, making $12 million in the first year of a front-loaded three-year contract. His mission: to eat innings. You know him: cutter/curveball, reverse splits, pitches to contact, can be very effective when he induces ground balls. He's solid, but the fact that Scott Feldman started (won!) on Opening Day says it all about the Houston front office's level of ambition for 2014. To be fair, he was considered quite the catch at last year's trade deadline. He fetched the Cubs Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop and pitched capably for the Orioles down the stretch, though they finished third and might regret that trade now.

The leadoff man is Jose Altuve, the second baseman and two-time All-Star. Altuve is an oddity on this team, and not just because he's a home-grown player who didn't arrive in Houston via a scorched-earth trade. He's also a contact hitter (and a really good one). The little guy leads the AL in hits, batting average and steals (42), is currently riding a 12-game hit streak, and goes up there swinging, though he has very little power. It's a bit ironic that he's the face of the team, given that practically everyone else in the lineup is an anti-Altuve: patient, powerful, extremely strikeout-prone.

Marwin Gonzalez is a versatile, switch-hitting infielder who has been manning shortstop recently, though he's playing through hamstring tenderness (he missed yesterday's game) and may land on the DL. He's 25. He came to Houston in an unheralded trade before the 2012 season: Boston picked him in the Rule 5 draft and shipped him to Houston for pitcher Marco Duarte, who's currently a swingman for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico. Gonzalez is probably most famous for being the guy who broke up Yu Darvish's bid for a perfect game with two out in the ninth inning last April.

Designated hitter Chris Carter has been traded three times, for Carlos Quentin, Dan Haren and Jed Lowrie. He will strike out, and he will hit homers. Carter's 212 strikeouts last year led the majors, and were the third-highest single-season strikeout total in MLB history. (Adam Dunn is second, with 222 K's in 2012. Dunn is also 7th, 13th, 15th and 16th. Mark Reynolds is first, with 223 in 2009. Reynolds is also 4th, 6th and 12th.) I'd throw in a crack about George Springer challenging for the strikeout record, but he's on the DL and won't return until at least Monday. Carter also has a 27.6% groundball rate, one of the lowest in the majors, and the short left-field porch in Houston suits him well.

Catcher Jason Castro, of Castro Valley, California, is having a rough year with the bat; his strike zone control had been pretty good the last couple of years, but this year, it's deserted him. He's 27 - I'd be betting on a return to form next year. The Astros clearly are, too, as they're making him the #4 hitter day in and day out. Castro also had the misfortune of being asked to play clubhouse spokesman and defuse the ridiculous Mark Appel bullpen session controversy, a fate worse than death. Just a rough year all around.

Following Castro are three more young all-or-nothing hitters. Marc Krauss was acquired from Arizona in 2012 for Chris Johnson; he's a 26-year-old sophomore left fielder who has a pretty good hitting record in the western minor leagues that hasn't quite translated to the majors. Jon Singleton, the rookie first baseman, came to Houston with Cosart in the Hunter Pence trade; he's struggled to make contact in the bigs as well. Third baseman Matt Dominguez, a slow, powerful righty, came from Miami in exchange for Carlos Lee. It'll be interesting to see how Hutchison approaches these guys tonight.

The right fielder is Robbie Grossman, another Houston-area native who switch-hits and has drawn a ton of walks in the minor leagues. He came to the Astros from Pittsburgh in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. I believe that means every tanking move Houston has made in the past four years has at least one representative on the Astros' active roster.

With Dexter Fowler sidelined, centerfield duties have fallen to 22-year-old Puerto Rican rookie Enrique Hernandez (call him Kike - no, it doesn't rhyme with Ike). After falling off the prospect radar, he figured out AA in his third crack at it this year, and then hit .337/.380/.508 in the PCL to earn a promotion. He's played second, short, and all three outfield positions for Houston, and after Altuve he might just be the second-toughest out in the lineup right now. Could be the super-utilityman for the next contending Astros team - if such team materializes before he reaches free agency…

As for the bench, L.J. Hoes (from the Bud Norris trade!) and Jesus Guzman are decent hitters mired in ghastly slumps; one presumes they will both start against Happ tomorrow unless Houston wins 15-0 tonight. Gregorio Petit is a 29-year-old journeyman who was just called up a week ago, and this is his first taste of the majors since he played for Oakland in 2009. Carlos Corporan is in his fourth season as the Astros' backup catcher.

The bullpen is well-rested thanks to ace Dallas Keuchel, who fired a complete-game four-hitter yesterday. (The Jays are lucky to dodge him.) The closer is Chad Qualls, who's returned to the city where he started his big-league career after stints in Arizona, Tampa Bay, Philly, Pittsburgh, the Bronx, Pittsburgh and Miami. Qualls is still a sinker-slider guy with colossal platoon splits (.461/.903 OPS), and his 3.2 pitches per plate appearance is remarkably low for a closer. He blew a three-run lead to Oakland on Tuesday, so look for Bo Porter to try to get him back on the horse early in this series. Veteran Tony Sipp and 28-year-old sophomore Josh Fields are twin strikeout machines from the left and right sides, respectively, and they'll be the primary setup men. Jose Veras, Darin Downs, Paul Clemens (no relation) and Jake Buchanan round out the bullpen.

The Credit Section: Fangraphs - it's pretty great. I feel like, this being 2014, the chart should really include some kind of pitch data somewhere, but couldn't figure out where best to put it. The "DRS" column is Defensive Runs Saved at the position listed in the chart. The roster and pitching matchups are accurate as of 11 am Thursday morning...


Advance Scout: Astros, July 31-August 3 | 264 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#290973) #
Yankees have claimed Esmil Rogers off waivers per MLBTR:
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#290976) #
Alex, nice job with the write-up. No mention of Cesar Cedeno, though. Am I perhaps thinking of the NL version of the Astros?
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#290982) #
Orioles acquire Andrew Miller per MLBTR
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#290983) #
And A.A. wasn't in the picture.
James W - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#290985) #
And A.A. wasn't in the picture.

According to whom? And I'd say LHRP is about the only thing A.A.'s team didn't need.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#290986) #

Catcher Jason Castro, of Castro Valley, California, is having a rough year with the bat; his strike zone control had been pretty good the last couple of years, but this year, it's deserted him

Nice, Alex.  Castro Valley is in a desert, isn't it?

The Astro offence does not exactly look terrifying.  I guess the key is keeping Altuve off the bases- if you can figure out what a high strike for him is, he will pop up.   It'll be fun to watch a Stroman-Altuve matchup.
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#290990) #
Stephen Drew to Yankees.
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#290991) #
Price to Tigers.
Alex Obal - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#290992) #
No mention of Cesar Cedeno, though. Am I perhaps thinking of the NL version of the Astros?

Likely an oversight on my part. If he was any good I'm guessing he got traded to the Phillies for cash considerations a couple years ago.

Apparently, Castro Valley is a town in the East Bay that used to house the local KKK headquarters. I hope that isn't related to the strikeouts.

Going to Boston in exchange for Miller is lefty pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. I don't know much about the Orioles' system, but that sounds like a reasonable price even if their bullpen was pretty good already. If I know anything about irony, they're going to get creamed in close games the rest of the way.
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#290993) #
Dan Johnson to the DL with a hamstring strain, making room for Jenkins.
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#290996) #
Austin Jackson taken out of game in Detroit.....obviously in Price deal as he was called off the field in the middle of an inning....being hugged in dugout
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#290997) #
Price deal is 3 way. also involving Mariners.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#290998) #
Stephen Drew to Yankees for Kelly Johnson?  I guess that he'll play second base, unless Derek Jeter tips his king and moves.  That doesn't seem likely. 
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#290999) #
So nothing for A.A., but not unexpected. It makes a person wonder if the opportunity available is going to be passed by.

Price to Detroit is bad news for the Jays, 8-10 August and good news for the Jays, 22-24 August, 02-04 September and 12-14 September.
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#291000) #
Prado to Yankees....that was unexpected
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#291001) #
Cosart to the Marlins. Not starting tonight against the Jays.
PeterG - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#291002) #
Cosart will not be starting against Jays tonight as he is now as Marlin.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#291004) #
Where does Prado play?  Headley, Jeter, Drew, Gardner and Ellsbury seem to cover the likely possibilities with transfers.  Maybe he's acquired to be a superutility player, with Jeter getting lots of rest and Drew playing shortstop.  It's pretty clear that one way or the other the Yankees will be better than they have been.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#291007) #
The Rays apparently up with Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin in the deal.  I like both players, but it's not the equivalent of what they got for Shields.
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#291009) #
Reports are now saying that the Rays also got Willy Adames from the Tigers, a highly regarded 18 year-old SS playing quite well in the MWL. That makes more sense.
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#291010) #
Hernandez also included by the Astros in the deal to the Marlins. One of their best hitters. No excuse for the Jays against a depleted lineup. Marasnick part of the deal coming back.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#291011) #
I think the Rays do the trade because with Price over the past 4.5 weeks, Tampa has gone 18-6 and gained 1/2 game in the Standings.
MatO - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#291012) #
What would be a Blue Jay comparable for the Price deal? Hutchison, Pompey and Baretto?
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#291013) #
Maybe the best news: David Price and his career 2.31 ERA vs the Blue Jays is out of the AL East for the next year.
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#291014) #
It's pretty clear that one way or the other the Yankees will be better than they have been.

I suppose. But is Drew (this no-spring-training out-of-position version) really a whole lot better than Kelly Johnson? And what of Prado? To platoon with Headley or Ichiro or simply supersub it (maybe serve as backup at 1B)?

I see deck chairs moving but not much more. The Yankees will plummet. There can be no further protection from the gods. Plummet ye bastards.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#291015) #
And the Jays face tonight: PTBNL.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#291016) #
Can't remember a more exciting trade deadline day even though the jays did nothing - when you have no money it's tough, thank you NHL deal - Martin Prado would have been a good get - Boston have traded away 4/5 of their opening day rotation, that's kind of a historic purge - looks like Boston will be joining Toronto in not giving out those longterm $100m contracts (so, probably no Lester nexr yr.) - we'll see how good Red Sox pitching prospects are - I liked what Houston got for Cosart
Buck Showalter has done a masterful managing job this year & now with Miller, it will be fun to see him utilize that BP
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#291018) #
A.A. speaks in a TSN article. The definitive statement: "We're definitely not going to stop being active, going over the waiver wire, probably going to make a few claims," said Anthopolous; seems to say it all.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#291019) #
And Bautista's response: “I’m a little disappointed,” he said. “Other teams find a way to improve.”; might also be ignored by A.A.

I wonder if a failure to make the Postseason results in Bautista asking for a trade?
John Northey - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#291020) #
As I mentioned in the Boston thread - never bet against the Rays in a trade.  They love young talent and I think they got 3 who could make a difference in a couple years if not sooner.  Well, Adames a bit longer but I like him if his defense is decent.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#291022) #
Exciting day for some teams. Pretty weak sauce for Rogers and the Jays. I guess with few prospects to deal (i.e., without seriously depleting the farm system) and no cash, the Jays were probably never going to compete with the teams that had tradeable assets and payroll room.

The Jays couldn't even land a reliever, while the O's walked away with Miller.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that the team is playing well, but it would have been a nice gesture for Rogers to pony up for at least one valuable piece to bolster the team's chances (assuming AA didn't just max out his budget a year ago, leaving no room for further acquisitions). Back to the waiver wire, I guess.
hypobole - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#291024) #
As much as we like to rag on Rogers, where are the bums in the seats? Of the 6 bottom teams in each division, the only one behind the Jays in attendance is Minny, who've managed to lose 99, 96 and 96 games the past 3 seasons. And Minny's attendance is all of about 200 fans per game behind the presently playoff bound Jays. Why are the perennially crappy Rockies outdrawing the Jays by over 5000 fans per game?
bpoz - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#291025) #
This deadline sure was exciting. I am sure this is due to us being solidly in it. So we got nothing. Still GO JAYS GO.
92-93 - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#291026) #
The bums are busy providing the Blue Jays with their highest TV audiences EVER, and were understandably frustrated management did nothing to improve the team this winter.
hypobole - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#291028) #
Is that the new marketing campaign?
"Save the hassle of coming to the ballpark - just watch the Jays on TV. Makes no difference to us."
Four Seamer - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#291029) #
For some reason it amuses me that Gameday already pictures Danny Valencia in a Jays cap while Juan Francisco is still presented in his Brewers finery. Is he camera shy or something?
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#291030) #
Which Hutchison are we getting?
Magpie - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#291031) #
Colby Rasmus scratched from the starting lineup after showing up late. And not for the first time.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#291032) #
Cliff Lee has removed himself from August trade speculation by re-injuring his elbow. He may not ever get back to normal for 2015 is the issue.

Ahh, we got the average Hutchison. Too bad, it looked like the Jays had a chance.
JohnL - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#291033) #
Rasmus: I don't listen much to sports talk radio, but I did hear his father on PrimeTime recently, blaming Colby's hitting problems on the change in hitting coach.

Jays obviously should base their choice on Colby's needs. I turned the show off.

Tonight, PTS led off with the "unhappy" quotes from the clubhouse, then a tweet from Colby's brother, bitching about the GM. Tweeted on his own? Turned that off too.

Always had a bad vibe from him. August trade?
Beyonder - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#291034) #
At this point I'm in favour of anything that gets Kevin Pillar regular at bats on the team. Another home run for him tonight.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#291035) #
Too bad, it's the bad Hutchison.

Colby Rasmus always has an excuse why he's never as good as he's 'supposed' to be. I'd trade him in August, but does he have value? Maybe as a third piece, the one that can play at MLB level.
JB21 - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#291036) #
A BP scout is watching Miguel Castro pitch tonight and is gushing over him. Says he may be the best pitching prospect in our system.
grjas - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#291037) #
The Jays could have freed up cash by dumping Colby for peanuts becaus right now he is in the way and frankly happ if they had a stronger SP option. That's 12mm in annual salary freed up ...don't buy the argument this is just Rogers fault.

I would have pitched out rasmus for a solid right handed reliever in a heartbeat. Sixth highest salary in the league ... the issue ain't cash.
scottt - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#291038) #
Yes, obviously Colby could have been traded to free cash, but the Jays probably waited too long and there might not be any takers now.

Remember that the Cards reached the playoffs when they traded him. 98 OPS+  with attitude issues doesn't cut it in center field.

grjas - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#291039) #
Yes, obviously Colby could have been traded to free cash, but the Jays probably waited too long and there might not be any takers now.

Precisely. Why they didn't pull the trigger this month is beyond me knowing they'd likely need the cash. Furthermore, we shouldn't resign him, he's behind Gose now, and we have 5 outfielders in the majors and another sitting in the minors. May be they tried and couldn't find a suitor, but seems odd. I'd have been happy just to dump him for a small return.

AA is beginning to totally baffle me.
JB21 - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#291040) #
Nice move by Colby not showing up on time allowing Reimold a chance at hitting two bombs and saving our butts.
Cracka - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#291041) #
Tough crowd here...

Jays are 11-3 since the break, now 10 games over .500. Stroman & Sanchez have been fantastic, arguably our two best pitchers of late. Reimold's last 3 starts have included a two double night, a 3 RBI night, and tonight's heroics. Valencia looks like a nice pick-up. I personally think AA deserves a ton of credit for pulling together this group despite the obvious budget constraints. EE/Lind/Lawrie will all be back at some point in the next month...

Maybe we didn't get any new toys today, but things are looking pretty good right now.
smcs - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#291043) #
I would have pitched out rasmus for a solid right handed reliever in a heartbeat.

I don't get that. The upgrade in relief pitching from McGowan to Reliever X, which would be maybe 20 innings over the next 2 months, isn't equal to the downgrade from Rasmus to Gose and Pillar taking an extra 100 PAs, with the defence probably being a wash.

scottt - Thursday, July 31 2014 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#291044) #
Will Hutch need to be shut down by the end of the month?

ERA by month:
April 3.82
May 3.94
June 4.28
July 5.93 (Does not include today)

That doesn't bode well for September.

John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#291045) #
I'm wondering if the Jays are debating putting Sanchez in the rotation and putting Hutch into the long man role, or putting Redmond into the starting staff (more direct replacement situation) for now.  Might be a good idea, or to skip a Hutch start or two during August when off-days are common.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#291046) #
A.A. said Trade Pieces required MLB/immediate MLB- ready players in exchange. I think he concentrated too much on certain players and totally missed Andrew Miller and Martin Prado and gave up earlier? Too many deals were bargain values assets-wise.
jamesq - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#291047) #
The quandary AA is in with the jays payroll being at an all time high, and as a consequence, AA being constrained to work within current budget parameters has to be put mainly on AA. The Marlin deal resulted in about $33 million average annual cost for the contracts for Reyes/Burle as opposed to about $3 million AAC for Henderson Alveraz/Adeiny Hechavarria. One could argue that the contributions of these players this year are close to equal. If that holds true, that extra $30 000,000 could have been used to buy rentals for the stretch.
Alex Obal - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#291048) #
where are the bums in the seats?

Actually in the seats, for one thing. The Jays have some of the least creative attendance accounting in the majors. If you'd like to figure out the announced attendance at a Mets weeknight game by hand, count the number of people present, multiply by 4 and add 1500...
Super Bluto - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#291049) #
A.A. said Trade Pieces required MLB/immediate MLB- ready players in exchange. I think he concentrated too much on certain players and totally missed Andrew Miller and Martin Prado and gave up earlier? Too many deals were bargain values assets-wise. Not sure why anyone would believe AA at this very moment.
Super Bluto - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#291050) #
AA being constrained to work within current budget parameters has to be put mainly on AA.

Ultimately, that has to be put on Rogers. Other teams have found themselves in this same unexpected position. The ones who want to win find the money. Even if it means paying more for my crappy cable service, fine.
hypobole - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#291051) #
Alex, you're probably right and definitely wrong. There is no creative accounting, Attendance numbers for all teams are tickets sold. However, teams with high percentages of season tickets also have higher rates of no shows.

Don't know what the Jays season ticket sales are, but I'll guess they're quite low. So compared with other teams with much higher rates, probably a greater percentage of Jays ticket buyers actually show up.
Thomas - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#291052) #
It's convenient AA always states there is the money available to make trades only after he's failed to make those very trades.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 02:47 AM EDT (#291053) #
I get being dissappointed but the amount of whining here about having the 7th best and hottest team in baseball at the moment, with a bunch of impact players about to return from injury, is a wee bit ridiculous imo.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#291054) #
"Going to Boston in exchange for Miller is lefty pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. I don't know much about the Orioles' system, but that sounds like a reasonable price even if their bullpen was pretty good already. If I know anything about irony, they're going to get creamed in close games the rest of the way"

Good call.

After winning an amazing 7 extra inning games in a row, all within the last 25gms, they finally lost an extra inning game tonight.

Keep up the quality jinxing.
Alex Obal - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:33 AM EDT (#291055) #
There is no creative accounting, Attendance numbers for all teams are tickets sold. However, teams with high percentages of season tickets also have higher rates of no shows.

Guess I'll take your word for it. We do know that the Jays were creative on two levels in the past, until they decided in 2009 not to count comped tickets in official "paid" attendance figures and to "sort of stop free ticket giveaways." In Beeston's words, "There's no use fooling yourself and announcing numbers that aren't real." But I can't imagine his predecessors were fooling themselves just for the sheer joy of it, and seeing crowds like last night's in Houston routinely announced as 18,000 makes it very tempting to suspect that some teams still engage in this kind of inflation. If the missing 10,000 people really are just unused corporate season tickets, that's fascinating. What are the Jays doing wrong? And is that the only thing standing between Toronto and the largest payroll in the league?
Gerry - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#291056) #
Test to get rid of italics. Test.
85bluejay - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#291057) #
I don't have any problems with the criticism of AA though I am okay with the no activity on the trade front - but, too often the media & fans anoint winners & losers based on level of activity, money spent & name recognition of players involved - last night the jays got plus performances from Reimold ,Sanchez & Valencia, none of whom were with the club 3 weeks ago but because it didn't cost much & Reimhold & Valencia aren't sexy names, AA is given much credit
scottt - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#291058) #
The team is doing well without Encarnation, Lind and Lawrie.

I think they'll eventually need a starting pitcher.  Who's #6 right now?

greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#291059) #
85bluejay, good point. The Jays have benefitted a lot from AA's under-the-radar acquisitions and internal promotions this year.

Still, one more #1/2 starter would have been nice (or a stud two-way position player).
sweat - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#291060) #
How exactly would Prado improve the Jays at this point? Aren't the two headed monsters of Francisco/Valencia and Tolleson/Kawagoins better options? Seems like it to me (cheaper too).
Another RP would have been nice but would you have done Norris for Andrew Miller? I wouldn't have. I'm going to hope one of Drabek, Delabar, Santos, Rasmussen, Stilson or Wagner can do a passable job.
Lester and Price would have both been great additions, but would you want to give up Major league players for them? Would they have even traded with the Jays? Both guys left the division after all.
McCarthy might be the only guy who would have helped the team that AA could have had.
rfan8 - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#291061) #
According to Jayson Stark, AA was apparently teams throughout that they couldn't add payroll so I don't think in this case it was a convenient excuse.
John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#291062) #
Checking Cot's Contracts for future Jays payroll obligations...
2015: $96.2 mil - no Cabrera/Rasmus/Janssen, doesn't count options for Lind/Thole/Happ/McGowan, doesn't factor in arbitration for Francisco/Cecil/Reimold/Valencia/Lawrie/Delabar/Hutchison/Kawasaki.  Does factor in Romero & buyout for Santos.  Options for Lind/Thole/Happ/McGowan are $7.5/$unk (probably $1.3)/$6.7/$4 = $19.5 mil .. now remove buyouts of $1/0/200k/500k and net cost is $17.8 mil to keep them all.  Morrow also has a $10 mil option but no way the Jays will use that option I'd think.  So pre-arb we're at $114 mil.  8 players in arb probably means something like another $16 to 25 mil depending, so new range of $130-139 mil for payroll and that is pre-Rasmus or Cabrera or Janssen resigning.  Ouch.

2016: $27.6 mil - no free agents from last year kept or options kept, nor Buehrle, Navarro, Reimold (all free agents) with only buyouts factored in for those with options (Bautista/Dickey/Encarnacion/Izturis/Romero).  Many deep into arbitration now (Francisco/Cecil/Thole/Valencia/Lawrie/Delabar/Hutchison/Kawasaki/Loup

So the salary crunch isn't long, but lots of replacements needed as soon as next year.  If we assume a 10% payroll bump (big assumption) the budget for 2015 would be $150 mil or enough to keep one of Cabrera/Rasmus/Janssen, maybe (big maybe) one of Cabrera/Rasmus plus Janssen if you assume low in arbitration.  2016 hits a lot of decisions, biggest being Buehrle (3 of 5 options are clearly going to be picked up unless major injuries happen, other 2 very unlikely).  So that is what AA would've been factoring in during trade talks I'd bet.  He would have a framework for 2015/16 budgets right now and would be trying to plan around those.
John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#291063) #
I'm hopeful with the kids for the pen in 2015 and even this year.  Sanchez has been fantastic in his first few games there (2 baserunners in 6 1/3 IP).  In the past (including this year) the Jays have taken failed starters and made them effective relievers (Janssen, Cecil, McGowan).  Hopefully next year we'll see some returns from Jenkins (well, some returns this year) and Drabek with others in the pipeline I'm sure.  I suspect in 2015 the rotation will see Happ moved back to the pen (again) with Sanchez in the rotation with Stroman/Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison giving us 3 young guns and 2 vets, then Buehrle will leave and hopefully Sanchez stays good and another kid comes along as well (many to choose from).

For offense... well... much more challenging. Lets hope for some good news soon.  Luckily AA seems to be figuring out how to find decent role players if not near regulars on the cheap lately - Francisco, Reimold, Valencia, Kawasaki, and Tolleson.  Navarro is fairly cheap ($8 mil over 2 years) compared to the other options last winter yet has a 95 OPS+ now (example of how it could be worse: McCann is at 85 and makes $17 mil this year with 4 more years left).  Perhaps those 1001 pro scouts are paying off, and paying nicely.

FYI: Free agent pitchers we all wanted watch...
Santana: 100 ERA+ in 20 starts
Jimenez: 88 ERA+ in 18 starts (on DL)
Arroyo: 92 ERA+ in 14 starts (on DL - not wanted by all but by some)
Kuroda: 98 ERA+ in 22 starts
Garza: 100 ERA+ in 22 starts
Nolasco: 68 ERA+ in 18 starts
Lincecum: 81 ERA+ in 22 starts 1 relief game
Feldman: 91 ERA+ in 19 starts
Hughes: 98 ERA+ in 22 starts
Tim Hudson: 126 ERA+ in 21 starts - someone worth signing at last! 2 year, $23 mil
Kazmir: 159 ERA+ in 21 starts - many wanted but he seemed to have only a few he'd go to
Colon: 91 ERA+ in 21 starts
Burnett: 90 ERA+ in 23 starts
Jorge de la Rosa: 101 ERA+ in 22 starts
Dan Haren: 79 ERA+ in 21 starts

That covers everyone who got $10+ mil as a starting pitcher last winter.  15 pitchers, 2 of whom would've been clear upgrades on the Jays current roster (Kazmir & Hudson) while the rest have 101 or lower ERA+'s, thus many slight improvements over Happ or Hutch for $5-10 mil a year more.

Good way to show how hard it is to sign free agents and get value out of them.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#291066) #
FWIW, it is likely that the #6 and #7 starting options at this point are Todd Redmond and Sean Nolin.  Perhaps the club would roll the dice with Aaron Sanchez, but I don't think so.

One of the difficulties about the compensatory pick regime under the CBA is the unfortunate incentives created for what one might call "second-tier" free agents.  These are the ones who might or might not receive QOs.  The QO significantly depresses the prospective free-agent's marketability.  Second-tier free agents sometimes have a significant financial incentive to not perform at their best.  I am not saying that any player would do so intentionally, but it is generally not a good idea to have a negative financial incentive on performance. 

greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#291067) #
Last off-season, AA predicted there would be a lot of buyer's remorse with regard to the SPs that teams were giving big contracts. Good call. His courtship of Santana for 1/14 (instead of Ubaldo for 4/48) is also looking pretty smart in retrospect.

Once again, Beane shows his astuteness by getting ahead of the curve and nabbing the best arm (Kazmir) available (and at a very reasonable rate). Beane is certainly not afraid to make a bold move (Cespedes, Kazmir, Samardzija, Lester), even on a budget.

John Lott has a good column up on the sense of disappointment among some of the Jays players, linking it in part to the promises that the front office made in spring training about adding to the team if it was in contention at the deadline.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#291069) #
Here is the Lott column. The most unfortunate part of the various promises made by ownership/management is the expectations created among players which have been unmet.  Bautista has had a terrific year and has done absolutely everything he can; he may rightfully feel let down by ownership in the collective enterprise of trying to win.  Hopefully the club can transcend that. 

This club can still win.  It's going to have to do it by bashing the opposition into submission and relying on good starting pitching at the top of the rotation (Stroman, Buehrle, Dickey).  The first step is catching and passing the Orioles.  That seems to me to be achievable.  And as for the suggestion that the Jays cannot possibly beat the Tigers or As in the playoff because of their superior pitching at the top of the rotation, I say balderdash. 
Lylemcr - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#291070) #

I really like what Oakland did.  They have the best team in baseball and the still made BOLD moves.  I think Billie Beane learned from his Giambi\Tejada years that the window is small and you need to go for it. 

I am happy the Jays didn't do anything to crazy.  A number 1/2 starter would be nice, but I sense that A.A was handcuffed by payroll.  Thus, hopefully Sanchez gets an opportunity to be Stroman act 2.

Hutchinson is one year off Tommy John.  They do have to think about his health.  I would like to see them shut him down.  Next year is going to be a big year for him.  It usually takes a full year to recover completely from TJ.

Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#291071) #
Reading/listening through the various A.A. articles/sound bites, he said the money was there and was always there. (I think there were limits, but can't take on salary, who on the Blue Jays Organization said that? I think it was all the talking heads - press.) He said they were after MLB/MLB-immediately-ready players.

Andrew Miller (LHP) for middling AA lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (21): I can't believe A.A. missed this deal

Asdrubal Cabrera (SS/2B) for AAAA infielder Zach Walters (24): He would look good at 2B and backing up Reyes. It was said he could play 2B and he's a real SS too.

Martin Prado (INF/OF) for recently promoted to AA catcher Peter O'Brien (24): A.A. couldn't do better than this?

Any one of these deals would have satisfied the players, all at an insignificant cost. Where was A.A.? Gaining these players wasn't about fit, it was about giving the team a pat on the back, good job.
bpoz - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#291072) #
That is a very good financial breakdown John N. Thanks. Janssen has been very good and reliable. He will get good offers from teams that are considered contenders like Detroit.
I think we lose him. Without Janssen the pen has been weak.
With Rasmus & Lind there has always been inconsistency due to injury &/or poor performance. Cabrera probably departs as well.
There are many questions. I know 2 things I am reasonably sure of 1) Financial limitations. 2) We need depth. All those 4th OFs and fringe IFs are depth of some sort. Big performances next year from J Reyes, EE, Bautista & Lawrie.

I like a lot about our pitching, we have quantity & quality, except for a proven Ace.
whiterasta80 - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#291074) #
Yeah I'm not buying either the "money is available" comment from AA nor am I buying that the Jays are hurting financially. You want to see hurting financially? Have Rogers try and find replacement programming if they couldn't air Blue Jays games throughout the summer. Hell, I sincerely doubt that RSN would have survived long enough to bid on the NHL without the Jays programming. This team has value well beyond what is creatively reported to us.

I do agree that team success hasn't translated into attendance bumps dramatically but I will argue that it certainly will in late August if they are still contending. As for why it hasn't yet? Well that's simple: This is a highly educated fan base that smells bull$h&%. The fact that we didn't pony up some depth in the offseason didn't sit well with the fan base who could see clear holes in the team and has suffered long enough for the sake of Rogers pockets.

When the team goes out and does their job in the early season getting into playoff contention and management remains inactive fan frustration (and player frustration apparently) is only going to increase. Management left this team again with holes that are clear as distilled water. Second base: are we really going to put Lawrie there? Really? and who exactly is our 6th starter, because Hutchinson is looking an awful lot like he may not last the season. If we make the playoffs and face either the As or the Tigers who starts game #1?

I don't agree that every improvement out there would have cost a critical major league piece. Prado certainly didn't (Pete O'Brien is ridiculously overrated btw), Miller didn't, Brandon McCarthy didn't.

I definitely feel like we could have put together a better package for David Price than what TB received (Say Hutchinson and Lugo to TB, Rasmus (or Gose) and Norris to SEA and franklin to TB via SEA). I also can't imagine that Philadelphia really wanted major league pieces back for Hamels- whatever he cost.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#291075) #
Asdrubal Cabrera seems to have been quite poor defensively at both shortstop and second base over the last couple of years.  There is a real debate about whether he or Walters is a better player right now.

The Prado trade is a little more interesting.  Prado would help the club right away to a modest degree and O'Brien is an Arencibia-type prospect.  It looks to me like the main barrier to acquiring Prado was the salary commitment ($10 million per year to 2016).  The Yankees, of course, can absorb that more easily than the Blue Jays. 

The Andrew Miller trade is probably the most interesting.  No significant salary was added to the O's payroll.  Rodriguez is a good pitching prospect but will probably end up in the bullpen.  I don't know what the equivalent for the Blue Jays might be.  Daniel Norris is a better prospect.  Sean Nolin might be of less interest to the Sox because he doesn't throw as hard.  The Sox seem to be in a short-term rebuild mode and they might not be interested in a short-season prospect because of development time issues. 

Salary issues undoubtedly played a role in Anthopoulos' decisions, but I am pretty sure that value considerations also were at least as important and probably more.

Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#291076) #
I think you have to decide on who's here in 2015, before trading anyone away.

Relief: No one of than Janssen has sufficient trade value here. Since Janssen's going nowhere, unless A.A. acquires his replacement, the other arms would just be filler.

Starter: I expect Dickey, Buehrle to be joined by Stroman Sanchez and Hutchison. Neither Morrow or Happ has a future here, so they are tradable. (Morrow should be with the Club by mid-month and might establish value then.)

Outfield: I don't expect Rasmus back, so the faster he goes the better. I want Cabrera back, so he's going nowhere.

Infield: Lind's not hitting many HR. He's hitting better, but where are the 20-ish HRs he hits every year? He's might be back in time to trade.

Anything A.A. does this month will be difficult, because what other GM's want will change as the month passes.
John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#291077) #
Richard - when it comes to the trades you list - Miller, Cabrera, Prado - none would've made the slightest difference to the disappointment the players feel.  Those are trades at the Valencia level - good role players but not impact players.  Price, Lester, even Lackey - that is what the players were looking for, someone who would be a big improvement on what is already here. 

If the cash is there I say try to get Jonathan Papelbon from the Phillies while dumping Romero on them (to cover some of the cash) along with a prospect as that would give the Jays a player who is established and solid in the pen to mix with Janssen/McGowan/Loup/Cecil.  Basically it'd allow Janssen to be the 8th inning guy (often the higher pressure) and McGowan/Loup/Cecil to do the 7th. 

Btw, gotta love that Amaro (GM of Phillies) was surprised no one wanted Ryan Howard even if they ate most of his salary.  Howard has a 91 OPS+ this year, 98 over the past 3 years while making $65 million and has $60 mil more coming his way the next 2 years including the buyout of 2017.  Since it is clear he'll eat salary I think a trade is possible.  Chase Utley being the ideal one to get (2B, 119 OPS+, $10 mil next year then vesting options so lots of cash protection would be demanded by AA I'm sure) of course.

In the end though, I'm very happy to see the Jays just 1 1/2 out of 1st place, 3 games ahead of the pack for the 2nd wildcard.  Playoff baseball might just happen this year.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#291078) #
Mike - Oops

Asdrubal Cabrera hasn't played 2B since 2009, so saying he's bad defensively there this year, is misleading. You're right about SS, .963 could be better.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#291079) #
John, I must disagree. The fact that someone was acquired might not satisfy them, but it would acknowledge their effort. They may be role players, but they fill real holes.

I tend to agree with you with the rest of that posting. I just don't think Amaro knows what he has.



acepinball - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#291080) #
I don't think any deadline deals can truly be appreciated without the off-season $ implications. Is it worth adding Prado at the expense of losing Melky next season? Where would Prado actually upgrade a position on the field? Which position could actually have been upgraded? Maybe catcher (which good catchers were even available?).

Yeah, it's a bummer the Jays couldn't pickup an ace, but would getting Jon Lester made it an absolute slam dunk that they'd win the division? ALDS? ALCS? WS? Pretty big risk if you ask me. There's still options for an August pickup. Perhaps AJ Burnett spells Hutch. Hosmer broke his hand, and with Detroit loading up, perhaps KC finally moves Shields.

Right now, the Blue Jays are positioned pretty well for this season and next. Tampa Bay is going to find out just how difficult it is to replace a Price. Boston has to replace Peavy/Lackey/Lester. Personally, I'd take the chance of being in the playoffs this year and next over going all-in this year.
greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#291081) #
I agree with Mike G's assessment of why the Jays were likely unable to make a trade at the deadline (mainly issues relating to value, with money likely a secondary issue).

The best way to get what you want in trades is to have pieces that other teams covet greatly (Wil Myers, Addison Russell, d'Arnaud/Syndergaard, Matt LaPorta :)). Alternatively, teams may be motivated by salary relief. The Jays didn't have much in the way of prospects that were both expendable and highly coveted, and they probably had very little cash to spend. Not exactly a recipe for executing a significant trade.
John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#291082) #
I suspect the Jays real goal this year is to contend into mid/late September and if they get into the playoffs great, but no expectation of a WS win (again, woohoo if happens but not the goal).  This year is all about being serious contenders and getting buzz going in the winter to get season ticket packages sold to corporations (thus why last year saw more fans than this year...buzz sold tickets pre-season but mid-season it is much harder to get companies to buy single game seats or a series of tickets).

The TV ratings jump will result in good things this winter I suspect - I can easily see Rogers bean counters going over the figures and saying 'if you can keep this viewership up, great spend a few mil more' thus why I see a 10% increase to $150 mil easily happening (enough to keep Cabrera or Rasmus plus Janssen) and a chance at a 15-20% increase ($165 mil roughly).  FYI: a $165 range puts them into Tiger/Red Sox/Angels territory but short of Phillies/Yankees/Dodgers (currently in a group with Washington/Texas for payroll with the Giants at the $148 mark).  Realistically we cannot expect more than that.  Right now at BP the Jays are listed as #8 in MLB for payroll which is reasonable, although #4 isn't unreasonable to shoot for ($165 vs current $137).

I expect few real changes though.  Most players are signed outside of Cabrera/Rasmus/Janssen (ones we care about at least). 
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#291083) #
Seattle is in Baltimore for three. Baltimore got Andrew Miller, who should be with the team by now. Seattle got their CF/Leadoff Hitter they been after in Austin Jackson. They also acquired Chris Denorfia OF, both are the right hand bats they were after. No one lost anyone of significance of their rosters (Franklin was blocked). Who has the advantage?

Toronto continues in Houston for another three, hopefully with better results. Trailing Baltimore by only 1.5 games and Leading Seattle by 3.0 games makes this a very important series. Which Happ do we get?
electric carrot - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#291085) #
I suspect the Jays real goal this year is to contend into mid/late September and if they get into the playoffs great, but no expectation of a WS win (again, woohoo if happens but not the goal).

Not sure I can agree with this. I think the moves of the last 2 years indicate a real let's win the WS kind of feel.

As for the trades and non-trades. I am feeling more comfortable with this team now that Stroman has been so consistent and Dickey is finding his groove -- but I think the smart money goes to Detroit, Angels and Oakland in a long series vs. Jays because of their lack of a playoff-experienced-Ace-like-pitcher (PEALP).  Maybe AA has a last trick up his sleeve -- or maybe we get an unexpected boost from somewhere within the organization -- (Sanchez? Nolin? Morrow? McGowan? Hutchison gets his groove back?)  (Hey, this kind of stuff does happen!) 

Anyway as of now -- I like our chances to win the division. I think we match up well against Baltimore and I think this is a better team than the Orioles. And if we make it there -- I think our chances greatly increase with a PEALP.  But I think with a healthy line-up and decent pitching (and not so many boneheaded base-running mistakes) we have a puncher's chance at a WS appearance. 







Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#291086) #
Incidentally, you can make a reasonable case that the Blue Jays right now are the 5th best team in baseball behind the Athletics, Angels, Dodgers and (narrowly) the Tigers.  None of the teams ahead of them are historically great clubs; will this be the year that good luck arrives.  The design isn't bad, with the additions of Francisco, Tolleson, Reimold and Valencia closing some important gaps.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#291087) #
One more thing.  I think that there is a decent possibility that the Tigers miss the playoffs entirely.  The Royals are 4 games back, and while the Tigers have added Price, they're going to notice the difference between Austin Jackson and Rajai Davis in centerfield. 
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#291090) #
Given the injuries, you could argue the jays are the third best team in baseball, and the best offense in baseball.
China fan - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#291091) #
Brett Lawrie begins his rehab games tonight in Dunedin's starting lineup.  He is ahead of schedule.  I wonder if he could be ready for the Baltimore series?  Adam Lind shouldn't take too much longer to begin his rehab games, I would guess, and then Encarnacion a little later.  If those three players can gradually begin to return to the Jays over the next 2 or 3 weeks, perhaps at a rate of one returning player every series or two, it could be a big boost to the team.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#291092) #
"Andrew Miller (LHP) for middling AA lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (21): I can't believe A.A. missed this deal

Asdrubal Cabrera (SS/2B) for AAAA infielder Zach Walters (24): He would look good at 2B and backing up Reyes. It was said he could play 2B and he's a real SS too.

Martin Prado (INF/OF) for recently promoted to AA catcher Peter O'Brien (24): A.A. couldn't do better than this?"




Yeah, i have no interest in adding poor fielding mediocre hitting players like prado and cabrera to our lineup, none whatsoever.

As for miller, that "middling" prospect rodriguez is quite comparable to our own Daniel Norris. Would you have wanted to trade Norris for a rental reliever?
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#291093) #
Lawrie's return to baseball is great news.  I'd guess that he would probably need more than 4 days rehab given how long he has been out, but what do I know...
Gerry - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#291094) #
Lawrie playing second base tonight.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#291096) #
Martin Prado is a 30yr old 3B with a salary of $11m this year and next year.

He has been well below average at the plate this year (89wrc+) but has been slightly above average for his career (107wrc+). Zips projects him at about average going forward (102wrc+), as does Steamer (100wrc+). He has been legit good vs. LHP in his career (119wrc+).

His defense at 3B is slightly above average (4.3uzr/150 career, 4.1 this year, 3.8 last year), his defense at 2B is well below average (-7.9 career, -67.0 this year, -4.4 last year).


why do we want this player exactly?
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#291097) #
That is weird.  With Encarnacion and Lind out for longer, you'd think that Lawrie would be back initially (at least) at third base with Francisco/Valencia finding playing time at first base/DH.  Hopefully this is for one game only.
Four Seamer - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#291098) #

That is weird. With Encarnacion and Lind out for longer, you'd think that Lawrie would be back initially (at least) at third base with Francisco/Valencia finding playing time at first base/DH.

Major leaguer or not, you don't just waltz into town and take Gustavo Pierre's place on the diamond!

China fan - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#291099) #
"....With Encarnacion and Lind out for longer, you'd think that Lawrie would be back initially (at least) at third base...."

Yes, but his longer-term future might still include 2B (part-time or full-time), so it's useful to give him more reps at the 2B position.  I think the Jays like the flexibility of having Lawrie available for two infield positions, depending on platoons and other factors.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#291100) #
All will be forgiven if Brett remembers to go large on the spread.  Don't forget the real Canadian maple syrup for the pancakes and french toast tomorrow...
grjas - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#291101) #
Lawrie playing second base tonight.

Hmmm. The way Goins is playing right now, I'm not sure a rusty Lawrie would be an upgrade. On the field, it's only his third base defence that sets him apart so hope its back to third, and that Goins is provided some more rope.

(Although with his new maturity, i think Brett's personality is now a big asset to the team, so will be good to get him back)
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#291102) #
I don't think Lawrie needs any practice at fielding 3B.
John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#291103) #
Depends on long term plans.  Right now I see the Jays going...
CA: Navarro/Thole
1B: Encarnacion
2B: Lawrie
3B: Francisco/Valencia
SS: Reyes
OF: Cabrera/Rasmus/Bautista
DH: Lind/Reimold
UT: Tolleson, maybe Gose or Kawasaki as well

That could be a scary good offense.  Short term maybe they are thinking of...
1B: Bautista
RF: Gose

Thus having Francisco/Valencia at 3B and Lawrie at 2B.  Or maybe Gose in RF vs RHP and Bautista out there vs LHP while Reimold plays vs LHP at DH and Tolleson at 2B/Lawrie 3B/Valencia 1B or something like that.  It is possible that Lawrie asked to be put at one position and left there as well so he could focus better, so the Jays picked 2B and will put Tolleson at 3B vs LHP until Encarnacion is back.  I doubt Goins hitting 324/324/432 in July (39 PA) will be enough to convince the Jays to keep him in the lineup instead.  Of course, the Jays are 9-1 in the 10 games Goins has played since coming back...
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#291105) #
they should really, really be giving Pillar another shot to platoon with rasmus.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#291106) #
I don't get the short-term plan, John.  Playing Lawrie at second and Francisco at third so that you can get both Gose and Rasmus in the lineup just doesn't make sense to me.  Gibbons and Anthopoulos need to have a chat about the plan for Rasmus/Gose. 
smcs - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#291107) #
I was thinking whose spots Lawrie, Encarnacion and Lind when they come back. Given that they just traded actual assets for Valencia, I assumed Lawrie would be going to 2B for the rest of the year, so I guess that means Goins or Kawasaki is gone once Lawrie comes back, with the other one leaving once Encarnacion or Lind comes back. I think the third player to leave would be Gose instead of Tolleson (I'll concede that which one goes depending on how you answer "Would you rather Lawrie be the backup SS and Valencia be the backup 2B, or would you rather Cabrera/Bautista be the backup CF?")  That would leave a Valencia/Francisco 3B platoon, and a Lind/Reimold platoon, with Encarnacion, Bautista and Lind/Reimold covering 1B/RF/DH.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#291108) #
At this point, opinions about what the club should do with Rasmus/Gose have to be very, very qualified.  There are unfortunately motivation/effort/focus issues with both (which partly may result from the presence of the other).  Magpie's comment that this is not the first time that Rasmus has been late for a game (this season?) is telling. 

Personally, I would find these kinds of issues much more frustrating than one-off outbursts.  Gibbons has his hands full.

Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#291109) #
Smcs, it would certainly be a mistake for the club to organize itself around Valencia.  He's the right-hand half of a platoon, and can DH or play first base.  That has value to the club.  If the club decided that Francisco at third base was an acceptable proposition most of the time, why did they play Kawasaki there for so long?
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#291110) #
with the play of Pillar in AAA and Pompey in AA, as well as the usefulness of Gose in MLB this year, I've come around to agreeing we shouldn't sign Rasmus going forward.

but thinking that he shouldn't be in the lineup this year is wrong, IMO.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#291112) #
the roster crunch is interesting right now.

Reimold is the reason I didn't think we really needed to bother adding a righty bat like Valencia, even though I like the trade.

The thing that works out here is that it seems to me that they are going to be forced to go with a 5 man bench and a 6 man bullpen until september roster expansion, which I think will make us all happy.

There's four bench players which we simply can't send down right now I don't think - Thole, Reimold, Valencia, Tolleson.

and even then it would suck to have to put Johnson on waivers. phantom DL him until september would be a smart play.

but that bench doesn't give us a real defensive backup for either CF or SS, which is not good.

the more urgent need would probably be a defensive CF (Gose or Pillar) rather than an SS, since I think Tolleson could handle SS in a pinch.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#291114) #
DH: Lind/Reimold

Lind and Valencia is better. Then in the infield you keep the Lawrie/Francisco/Tolleson platoon as before, or just go with a straight Goins/Tolleson platoon at 2B with Lawrie at 3B (making Francisco a PH). Either way, I think Goins is on the team till he proves otherwise. He can be a late-inning defensive sub, he can spell Reyes at SS, and he might even be able to hit, in which case he's a regular. I want him on the playoff roster. Same with Gose. Even if everyone's healthy, Gose is on this team for the rest of this season. If need be, you cut Reimold. Not that it'll come to that anyway, I don't think. It's pretty unlikely everyone's going to be healthy before the end of August, and once we're into September there's no more roster crunch.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#291115) #
but thinking that he shouldn't be in the lineup this year is wrong, IMO.

How does anyone not in the clubhouse know the best approach to the situation?  We know that Rasmus has plenty of talent, and that his performance has gone up and down with injury issues being important.  At times this year, there appear to have been other things at play, and it is certainly not the first time.   The bottom line this year is that Gose has performed better than Rasmus.  That does not mean (given their histories) that Gose is likely to perform better the remainder of the year.

 I do know that if I decided to let Rasmus be the everyday centerfielder, I wouldn't be juggling players to ensure that Gose got time once Lawrie is back.  You ought to use him as a conventional 4th outfielder/pinch-runner. 
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#291116) #
well, rasmus has been a much, much better offensive player than Gose this year.

and rasmus' unusually low defensive rating this year is pretty questionable, and he has a long track record of being a solid defensive CF.
smcs - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#291117) #
Smcs, it would certainly be a mistake for the club to organize itself around Valencia.  He's the right-hand half of a platoon, and can DH or play first base.  That has value to the club.  If the club decided that Francisco at third base was an acceptable proposition most of the time, why did they play Kawasaki there for so long?

I think that had more to do with saying that Kawasaki, Francisco and Goins should be in the lineup against a righty over Tolleson, and then organizing the best defense from there, and Kawasaki has only started at 3B for 7 games. When Lawrie got hurt, Kawasaki was the starting 2B, with Tolleson and Francisco platooning at 3B. Kawasaki didn't move to 3B and Francisco didn't move to 1B until Lawrie, Encarnacion, Lind, and Reimold got hurt. Once they all get healthy (assuming no one else gets hurt), I'd assume they go back to Francisco at 3B. The Valencia trade makes me think that they wanted to improve upon Tolleson, and decided that means leaving Lawrie at 2B for the rest of the year.

Of course, as I'm writing this, the Jays post their lineup for tonight on Twitter, with Kawasaki at 3B, Valencia at 1B and Reimold DHing, with Francisco and Gose on the bench. Benching Francisco against a righty is dumb, especially with a natural off-day tomorrow when a lefty is on the mound.

The thing that works out here is that it seems to me that they are going to be forced to go with a 5 man bench and a 6 man bullpen until september roster expansion, which I think will make us all happy.

The Jays also have 4 off-days in August, plus another one on September 1. If they got super-aggressive, and decided to start Dickey, Stroman and Buehrle on 5 days rest, they can get away with carrying 4 starters and 7 relievers for most of August, calling up the 5th starter for the 7th reliever when necessary.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#291118) #
come to think of it, I think Tolleson might be the one who loses a spot. He's cooled down at the plate and he's the least likely to keep up even his current level of performance going forward.

he doesn't have to pass through waivers, does he?
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#291119) #
So Mike, if Kawasaki is at third base - all that time - where was Francisco? He's either at 1B, DH or sitting on the bench because he's not hitting well.

How many right-handed batters do the same job as Valencia. And they are....? After all he is a right-handed platoon for a left-handed hitter, most of which don't hit lefties at all. So if he's not important, no one is.
electric carrot - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#291120) #
I want to prioritize Gose remaining on the team because I think he is absolutely critical to post-season success.  If we face any of those big name pitchers, I think  speed on base paths can be critical.  I want him to get better at reading pitchers and stealing bases and playing kick-ass centerfield. 
China fan - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#291121) #
"....At times this year, there appear to have been other things at play, and it is certainly not the first time...."

There's some risk of exaggerating the "attitude problems" that Rasmus allegedly has.  He admitted a mistake in Houston this week, but -- as far as I can tell from all the reporting about the incident -- it was an honest error, an innocent error, rather than some deliberate malingering or laziness or whatever else we are implying.  Magpie says it wasn't the first time.  Does that mean that Rasmus committed similar mistakes several times this season?  (I haven't seen this mentioned by any of the Jays beat reporters who cover the team closely, so I'd be skeptical of this.)  Or does Magpie mean that it happened once or twice earlier in his career, which would be somewhat less of a concern in 2014?  In any event, I think Rasmus sometimes gets unfairly perceived as "lazy" or "unmotivated" because of his deep-south accent and his good-old-boy demeanor.  Gibbons doesn't really seem worried about Rasmus's attitude -- he inserted Rasmus back into the lineup in the late innings yesterday and put him in the lineup again today, so it's nothing similar to Pillar's temper tantrum.  I'd be inclined to judge Rasmus solely by his performance on the field, rather than guessing about his attitude without much evidence.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#291123) #
The point, CF, is that neither of us knows.  You will see comments up-thread saying that Rasmus should have been traded and yours saying that he should have the everyday job.  I am merely saying that I don't know but that it is a complex situation. 

Gibbons seems more comfortable dealing with players who have these type of issues than one-off displays of anger.  We'll see if he can coax good performances from both Rasmus and Gose the rest of the way.  It sure isn't going to be easy.

John Northey - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#291125) #
There is an issue with how Reimold/Valencia/Tolleson/Thole are locked onto the roster in some respects.  However, once Reimold can play the outfield (if he can't already) then we get a few more options...

The big thing is we have a few players (Lind, Francisco) who cannot hit LHP (Rasmus could be added to that list).  Thus you need platoon mates for them.  Reimold works for Lind while Valencia for Francisco as you get complementary positions then (both V&F can play 3B, R/L best at DH).  Right now we have so many injuries to regulars that more mix/match is needed to make things work (Kawasaki is at 3B, Goins/Tolleson at 2B for example with Gose in the outfield often while Bautista is at DH/1B).  But once all regulars are back (assuming they get back pre-September) you need to make choices. 

Realistically you cannot cut Navarro, Thole, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Francisco, Valencia, Reyes, Cabrera, Rasmus, Bautista, or Lind.  That covers 11 slots (if not Thole then some other catcher would need to be there).  If you have a 7 man pen you have Reimold & Tolleson using those last two slots as neither would clear waivers I suspect and Reimold could be a big part of the team in 2015 if healthy (should Cabrera and/or Rasmus go away) so I doubt the Jays want to lose him especially when he has been hitting so far (just 6 games though).  Tolleson I'm very 'meh' about - he is decent (95 OPS+, 710 OPS in July, plays 2B/3B/SS/LF/RF/emergency pitcher) but not a 'wow' guy - someone you want for that 25 man slot but very replaceable.  If the Jays go with a 6 man pen then you get the tough slot - Gose for the OF/running?  Goins for the infield defense?  Kawasaki for the infield/entertainment?  Each has value and ideally you'd keep all 3 but there really are not enough slots until September.

Somedays it would be nice if MLB would go to a 27 man roster... of course then we'd be debating other guys too.

dan gordon - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#291127) #
Starting Valencia tonight against a righty instead of Francisco seems like a mistake to me. Valencia doesn't hit righties well at all. He was added as a lefty killer, which the team drastically needed. Francisco has been hitting well again of late after a rough patch.

Jim Johnson was just released by the A's. He was having a poor season, but he's been a pretty good reliever for 5 years prior to this one. Had 50 saves last year, 51 the year before. Wonder if the Jays might give him a shot.

Pillar would seem to deserve another shot, but how do they find room?
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#291128) #
The Valencia trade makes me think that they wanted to improve upon Tolleson...

I think because he's not a big name, and also perhaps because he plays the infield, people are missing out on what Valencia's really here for, which is to provide the RH DH bat we've been missing all year. At least I'm hoping that's the case -- against lefties, he's a better option than Reimold.

Benching Francisco against a righty is dumb...

Agreed. Hopefully Gibbons isn't falling too much in love with Reimold already.

--

I think Tolleson might be the one who loses a spot. He's cooled down at the plate and he's the least likely to keep up even his current level of performance going forward.

He's .299/.355/.500 for his career vs. LHPs. Now that's in only 171 PAs so I'd say the jury's still out, but those numbers are: (a) terrific; and (b) the largest sample size we can create for him (vs. LHPs, I mean) so probably the ones we should rely on most (i.e., better than looking at the last two weeks, or even this year, which in any case are even better -- .346/.402/.564 in 88 PAs).
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#291129) #
The defensive numbers for Rasmus and Gose are quite consistent both between DRS and UZR and with actual observation.  Rasmus has pretty good range when healthy and not otherwise. For his career, it has worked out to about average and he clearly has not been at his best defensively in 2014.  Gose is a +15/150 centerfielder over his career, which is entirely consistent with observation. 

It's hard to make the case that Rasmus has been better than Gose this year, but I suppose you could argue that they have been comparable overall.

China fan - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#291130) #
"....The point, CF, is that neither of us knows...."

Yes, exactly.  But earlier you stated flatly (without caveats) that Rasmus has issues of "motivation/effort/focus" and you stated it as if it was accepted fact. I don't think we have much evidence for that statement, aside from the one incident of lateness in Houston this week. As you've now admitted, we don't actually know whether Rasmus has a motivation issue or a focus problem or a laziness tendency.  So it seems a little unfair to be tossing around an unproven assumption about his character.

By the way, I didn't say that Rasmus deserves the full-time job at CF.  Gose has played well, and Gibbons has occasionally put him at CF even when Rasmus is available.  I think it depends on the pitcher and the situation, and it depends on how Rasmus is hitting.  But he's got far more power than Gose and he can be a very valuable bat in the lineup.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#291131) #
hmm. I forgot that playoff rosters went all the way back down to 25 men. I though they were a little bigger than that.

we might decide to take one of our platoon lefties off the roster for a particular series if the opponent has especially tough lefty starters going.
hypobole - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#291132) #
Shi Davidi was on Fan 590 this morning and he said "not the first time" regarding Rasmus' lateness.
China fan - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#291133) #
Rasmus OPS in the majors over the past two seasons:  .798
Gose OPS in the majors over the past two seasons:  .665.

Yes, Gose is the better base-runner, and he can bunt for a hit, and his defence is better, but I don't think it fully outweighs the massive gap in hitting between him and Rasmus.  The main issue, of course, is the salary that will be required to keep Rasmus on the team next year.

uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#291134) #
you gotta be very careful with those defesive numbers, mike.

Rasmus has chopped a full 2pts off his -7.1 defensive rating since he came back from injury, down to -5.2, and it would be as expected if that once again approached 0 by the end of the year, as his career indicates it should.

and the funny thing about Rasmus this year is that for all the talk about how "inconsistent" he's been at the plate, either awesome or awful in his careeer, this year he's trucked on all year right about his career average of 102wrc+ (at the moment he's just under at 98), though that may be skewed by his horrible start to the year (70wrc+ in APR).

I think its fairly safe to project league average offense with average CF defense from Rasmus going forward, which is a good player.


Meanwhile, while Gose's defense is pretty elite out there, his offensive numbers are really being carried by that hot start he had at the plate. he's been pretty dismal for a while now.

(APR: 5pa, 164wrc+)
MAY: 52pa, 112
JUN: 66pa, 62
JUL: 57pa, 76
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#291135) #
OPS is a poor measure for the difference between Gose and Rasmus.  Gose gets on base more; Rasmus has much, much more power.  There are several very large differences between Rasmus and Gose this year.  Gose is walking much more and striking out much less than Rasmus.  This hasn't always been true over their careers.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#291138) #
I think its fairly safe to project league average offense with average CF defense from Rasmus going forward, which is a good player.

I don't think that it's safe at all.  I have no idea what he will do, and I don't know what Gose will do either.  My hunch (and it is purely that) is that this is not a good situation. 
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#291139) #
Thus you need platoon mates for them. Reimold works for Lind while Valencia for Francisco...

Again, it's Valencia and Lind at DH, and Tolleson and Francisco (or Goins) in the infield. Or flip Valencia and Tolleson if you think Valencia's a better fielder -- the point is that against LHPs, Reimold is worse than both, or has been historically. Which means he should be on the bench for the most part.

but not a 'wow' guy

But wowish? At least against LHPs, right? Actually, that does raise a concern -- when you're dealing with big split differentials like Tolleson's, you're going to be hurt on occasions when you can't pinch-hit for him, so we can't look only at his splits vs lefties. But at least we've now got Francisco AND Goins on the roster, which provides the opportunity to pinch-hit and then re-pinch-hit in the course of a game. (With Reimold and Valencia now, the same goes for the other side of the plate -- i.e., Lind, Francisco, et al.)
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#291140) #
talking about the roster as a whole, here's their wrc+ from this year so far.

Vs. RHP

1. SS Reyes 106
2. LF Cabrera 137
3. RF Bautista 142
4. 1B Encarnacion 164
5. DH Lind 178
6. 3B Francisco 147
7. 2B Lawrie 108
8. CF Rasmus 106
9. C Navarro 103

now that's a tremendous lineup vs. RHP.

vs. LHP

1. SS Reyes 100
2. LF Cabrea 122
3. RF Bautista 213
4. 1B Encarnacion 154
5. 3B/DH Valencia 139 / Reimold* 325
6. 3B/DH Tolleson 167 / Reimold* 325
7. 2B Lawrie 59
8. CF Rasmus 74
9. C Navarro 73


still should be a pretty deadly lineup vs. lefties, especially since Lawrie and Navarro have much better career numbers vs. LHP than their current year numbers.

still agree with most people here that its obvious that pillar should be getting a shot to platoon with rasmus. that's still the one single slot in the lineup without a decent chance of being productive.

TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#291141) #
still agree with most people here that its obvious that pillar should be getting a shot to platoon with rasmus.

But as was also mentioned, where would you find the room? Pillar should be here in September, but before that I have a hard time seeing who he should replace. Kawasaki? Or there's Chad Jenkins, I suppose. Yeah, OK... I'd probably take Pillar over Jenkins.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#291143) #
I think its Gose that has to go back down.

Gose has been useful during this injury stretch because there's been plenty of at bats for him.

But when (if?) we get healthy, there really won't be much playing time for him at all, aside from late inning defensive replacement and pinch running.
electric carrot - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#291144) #
I think its Gose that has to go back down.

Disagreed. We have a lot of people who can hit on this team -- but few of these guys can bunt and run like Gose when he's on.  I am very willing to sacrifice the occasional advantage of a few points of OPS for the flexibility Gose gives us to win tight games.
Dave Till - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#291145) #
A fun stat: at the end of tonight's game, the Jays will be no more than 2 1/2 games back. The last time that the Jays were less than 10 games back on August 1st was in 2006 - when, coincidentally, John Gibbons was the manager. This is the first meaningful August baseball in these parts in eight years!

I can't really fault AA for not bringing in more players. The Jays don't have a lot of prospects they can deal; most of their mid-level prospects went out in the Dickey/Buehrle/Reyes trades. I'm willing to believe him when he says that the money was available - mind you, if the money was not available, AA wouldn't likely say so. Badmouthing your bosses is no way to stay employed.

I hope that the team doesn't become discouraged because they didn't land David Price or something like that.

As for Gose versus Rasmus: I'd like to see the Jays keep both of them for as long as possible. Depth is good. Having two actual centre fielders is good.

TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#291149) #
Speaking of Pillar, I re-watched the little episode that apparently caused his demotion. Now there's surely more to this story than what we were able to see on TV, but I suspect what was worse than the bat toss (which didn't seem like that big a deal to me) was what preceded it. It was an obvious pinch-hitting situation, with Gose available and a RHP entering the game (tied 6-6 in the 8th), and in fact, as Pillar stood in the on-deck circle watching the reliever warm-up, you can see Gose standing near Gibbons at the dugout steps, not far from Pillar. Gose has a batting helmet on and he's holding a bat, obviously getting ready to enter the game. And yet the whole time Pillar never looks at the bench and he then strides to the plate -- gets basically to the batter's box -- as if he's going to face the new pitcher. Now I know there's a whole thing in baseball that you don't look to the bench to be taken out -- you wait till you're called back -- but I wonder if he was being particularly obtuse in that situation, almost ignoring Gibbons' decision to pinch-hit for him.

Obviously I wouldn't have thought anything of this under normal circumstances, but it did make me wonder given how innocuous the subsequent events in the dugout looked. Who knows. In any case, it was rather strange that Pillar thought he was entitled to hit in that situation. Had he been hitting well, you could maybe understand the arrogance, but he certainly hadn't been doing that.
JB21 - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#291150) #
Gibbons says that Lawrie will be playing second and third in his rehab assignment and that the assignment could be a week long. It's nice to see AA not roll the dice and rush a player back to soon.

Lind is supposed to be starting a rehab assignment sometime next week. No timetable for EE, or as I like to call him, E40, as of yet.
acepinball - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#291151) #
I've been thinking about this a lot since the Valencia trade. I'm glad to see y'all have had the same head scratching I've had. Here's how I've thought about it. First assumption is full health. Which is a big assumption, and perhaps further justification for the trade is being better prepared for injury.

Bautista/EE/Lind will take two of the three positions 1B/DH/RF. Gose/Reimold could take some time in RF, but I suspect Jose spends most of his time there while Reimold makes a platoon with Lind.

Reyes SS, Melky LF, Dioner/Thole C. This leaves us with 2B/3B/CF.

Valencia has played very little 1B and 2B. Primarily 3B throughout minors. Not going to push EE or Lind out. Makes a great natural platoon with Francisco, who isn't going to push EE/Lind out of lineup. For the time being, peg them at 3B.

That moves Lawrie to 2B, and they won't platoon him. There's a chance the 25th man on the roster could be Goins, allowing for Lawrie to move to 3B for the defense lineup (end of game with lead).

CF, Gose and Rasmus are so similar (can't hit LHP). Gose has a .370 OBP vs. RHP (aided by 4 HBPs) but Rasmus is probably the better bet going forward. However, this means Tolleson has no spot. He's crushed LHP. Kinda sounds like a good platoon for Rasmus. Option of whether it's Tolleson in CF, or if he goes to a corner while Bautista/Melky move to centre.

So: Navarro, Thole, EE, Lind, Lawrie, Reyes, Francisco, Valencia, Melky, Rasmus, Bautista, Reimold, Tolleson gives us 13 position players. Pre-September, they could rotate through Gose/Goins/Kawasaki/7th reliever for the best use of the 25th man depending on how taxed the pen is.

Now two "crazy" thoughts I can't shake:

1. Was Lawrie dangled in trade talks? He's the most comparable to Cespedes/Franklin. The short term platoon at third and second (Kawa/Goins with Tolleson) would be similar in offensive production. Moving Lawrie to add Price would have been a shocking move...

2. If they platoon the LHP CF, and Tolleson/Melky/Bautista are the ones considered... why not Brett Lawrie? Sure he's never played the OF as a pro (shallow RF in the shift only sorta counts). But he's handled every other defensive responsibility in spades. A few innings in CF until the LHSP is chased? Probably video game stuff, but, would be a creative solution.
CeeBee - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#291153) #
Maybe Brett Lawrie can be our "Pete Rose".......
James W - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#291154) #
I wouldn't wager on it.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#291155) #
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#291156) #
a little frustrating to see both kawasaki and goins in the lineup, with francisco on the bench, against a pretty good pitcher.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#291157) #
I guess that Gibbons wanted the better defender at third base with Happ pitching and also wanted to give Valencia two games in a row upon his arrival.  That's the way he rolls.
uglyone - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#291158) #
no problem with valencia in the lineup. I like the cut of his jib.
Magpie - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#291159) #
For a guy with 4-17 career record, this McHugh fella is pretty good.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#291160) #
When you're facing a pitcher you haven't seen a lot of, taking a few extra pitches lets you adjust better to his stuff. Just 4.44 pitchers per at bat is not going to cut it. That's another problem that kept then down for so long.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#291161) #
We get a good start from Happ, and the Offense ignores it. What a waste.
dan gordon - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#291162) #
Valencia has demonstrated over 886 career plate appearances that he is a very weak option against right handed pitchers. He has a career batting average of .228 and OBP of .269 against righties. When they got him in the trade, I thought it was a great move, getting somebody to put in there against lefties, who were causing all kinds of trouble for the offense, with Lawrie and EE unavailable. Now they start using him against righties? That turns the trade from a big positive into a negative if it continues. They are taking a guy who hits righties much better than Valencia (Francisco) out of the lineup, and replacing him with a clearly inferior option. You've heard the term "addition by subtraction" when a team drops a player who was playing poorly - well, if they keep using Valencia against righties, it will be a case of "subtraction by addition". Let's hope that this was a one-off to give Valencia some work, because otherwise, they've hurt their offense by acquiring him. To put it another way, Valencia's career OPS vs righties is worse then Rasmus' career OPS vs lefties, and almost as bad as Lind's vs lefties.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#291163) #
Spot on, Dan.
greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2014 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#291164) #
The Jays had a nice scoring opportunity in the second (runners and 2nd and 3rd with none out) but failed to capitalize.

Happ's walk of Dominguez (OPS: 635) with a runner on first and two out in the 4th also hurt, as the next batter singled, plating a run.

The little things that matter in a close ballgame.
Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#291165) #
Just 4.44 pitchers per at bat is not going to cut it.

Sure it will. That's actually an enormous number of pitches per plate appearance. The average number of pitches for 25 plate appearances would be 96 pitches; the Jays made McHugh throw 111. He just kept making good ones.
Chuck - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#291166) #
Concur about the Valencia usage. Hopefully these starts against RHP were just a welcoming gesture to a new team and not the sign of things to come.
Chuck - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#291167) #
The Happ toggle watch continues. He has only once had two consecutive poor starts and has not yet had two consecutive good starts.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#291168) #
I suspect Gibbons is going to need to see Valencia fail a little bit against righties before he decides to trust the numbers. It'd be nice if we could have a manager that doesn't require such an initiation, but that's what we've had to endure with Gaston, Farrell, and Gibbons. At least Gibbons has shown the capacity to learn, as we've seen this year with Lind. That said, the decision to not only start Valencia last night but leave him in for a key at bat against a righty in the 9th was stupendously bad and reminiscent of Cito; I doubt even Farrell would've done it.

In any case, Gibbons doesn't have time in the midst of a stretch run to be monkeying about, so hopefully he learns soon. And come to think of it, shouldn't the message have already come from Anthopoulos himself? Surely you'd think the GM made it clear to the manager why he acquired Valencia and how he should be used, no?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#291169) #
Just when we have a great time to deal off our main roster and not the farm system, all our assets are hurt or struggling mightily. I don't know if Lind or Lawrie would be moved, but I suspect Encarnacion wouldn't. Good Center Fielders always have a market, but this would be the year Rasmus is having his worst year, his walk year.

For all his deficiencies against RHP, Valencia did go 1 for 4, of only 6 total hits. If you are going to rant about him, this is not the best day to do it. People come here to be better, pitchers and hitters both, and I don't know why it happens. Will Valencia do it, I don't know. It will be fun to watch.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#291170) #
In that second inning, would Gose have scored on Valencia's double? Would a healthy, enthused Rasmus (not someone mailing in the season) have scored? When complaining about Valencia, remember that after the second inning, the Jays only had two hits (Navarro - 6th; Reimold - 9th).
John Northey - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#291172) #
Wait a minute... deal off our main roster with the team in playoff position?  If the Jays dealt Rasmus for anything less than David Price or Jon Lester I figure the players would be in open revolt, let alone what would've happened if Encarnacion was dealt.  We might see Gose as a 1.3 fWAR player vs Rasmus' 0.4 but the players see a vet who has hit in the past and still is slugging now vs a kid who has struggled to show any power so far. 

I suspect AA knows all this and plans to let Rasmus go this winter while putting some effort to keep Cabrera.  He'll probably let both know they are in LF if either resigns while Gose/Pillar/etc. share CF.  Also that Reimold will be in the mix in LF as well. 

Btw, really sucks for the Jays that the guys with 100+ PA and wRC+ of 100+ are all negatives in the fielding department, some REALLY negative as in 10+ runs ... namely Encarnacion & Cabrera with Lind & Bautista both in line to crack -10 over 550+ PA.  Luckily Reyes and Francisco are only slightly negative (in the 2's).  Rasmus is -5.2 vs Gose's +8.3.

For positives on defense you get Gose 8.3, Goins 5.4 (just a 0.1 WAR due to his horrid offense), Lawrie 4.8, Kratz was at 2.1 when traded, Navarro 1.8, and Mastroianni 1.5 finishes off the 1.5+ defensive guys.  Pillar was 1.4 btw so he and Mastroianni are both coming up as very good in the outfield which isn't a shock.

In September I suspect we'll see a lot of late inning replacements.  Having Gose in CF surrounded by Mastroianni and Pillar would be scary good, while the infield seeing Goins and Lawrie and Diaz (1.3 in 45 PA) would also be scary good.  Basically anything that could be caught would be.  Maybe toss Valencia at 1B just to maximize the potential defense.  Do that for a full game and we might get a double no-hitter ... one for the Jays and one for the opposing team.
92-93 - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#291173) #
"Rasmus: I don't listen much to sports talk radio, but I did hear his father on PrimeTime recently, blaming Colby's hitting problems on the change in hitting coach."

I haven't had a chance to read the rest of this thread yet, but this is a gross misinterpretation of what Tony Rasmus was saying. People hear what they want to hear, apparently. And to be even fairer to Tony, the idea that changing the hitting coach may not have been a good idea is a consistent viewpoint he's had since the offseason, and one that was shared by almost everyone on this website who didn't understand why the Jays were replacing the hitting coach and not the pitching coach. He wasn't blaming Colby's problems on Seitzer, though.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#291174) #
When complaining about Valencia, remember that after the second inning, the Jays only had two hits (Navarro - 6th; Reimold - 9th).

Right, well the best way to get hits is for Gibbons to play the best lineup.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#291177) #
It gets to this point in the season and I like to look at the issues that got us here.

Brandon Morrow: May not have been ready to start the Season with the team, and possibly putting off surgery could be counter-productive on his career. He made 6 Starts for the Team before hitting the D.L. on 02 May. I won't discuss how he pitched although the Team only won two of those six starts.

Dustin McGowan: May have been the default 5th Starter, but the Team should have planned better from the first day of Spring Training. He made 8 Starts before going to the Bullpen, where he is a much better Pitcher. The Team only won two of those eight starts.

Bullpen: When a Starter leaves a game and has the Bullpen give up 3 runs, you have issues, especially since that's Week One of the Season. Those issues really came to a head in the winter games in Minnesota and have continued, to an extent, all season. The return of Casey Janssen mid-May helped stem the flood. Ii took until after the All-Star Break before the Bullpen stopped having a losing record.

April 17th: Winter games in Minnesota. Gibby's at fault here, Game Two. When your first Reliever comes into a miserable game like than and is successful, see how long he can pitch.

11-9 Record: Up until 22 April, Toronto was staying near the top of the Division, being Tied for 1st/in 1st place for 7 games. From this point on, playing Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City and Pittsburgh, the Jays lose 8 of 10 games. One series later, they are swept by Los Angeles, despite decent pitching (not good, not bad).

The Slide: Starts with being shutout by ST Louis in back-to-back games, and swept by the (bad) New York Yankees, despite decent pitching (offensive issues). Toronto doesn't really fall out of First place until they are swept by Oakland during a 2-8 game run just before the All Star Break.

The Offseason: (of discontent): A.A. tried going after the wrong people. But his decision to not trade Sergio Santos then may have been his biggest mistake. Not getting a top Reliever may have been his second. I won't discuss his third.

The Jays have had Bullpen issues all season. The Jays have had Injury issues basically all season. The Jays have had poor Offense for most of the season. Despite all that, only two periods really hurt this Team, both 2-8 game runs. I don't know what other conclusions I can offer, other than, we have a chance, it should have been a much, much better chance than we have now.
JB21 - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#291178) #
(not someone mailing in the season)

Come on. Even for you this is a reach. You're right, Colby has volunteered to piss away millions of dollars because he's sick of playing for a potential playoff team.
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#291180) #
Valencia is still better vs RHP than goins.
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#291181) #
Richard SS, what are you smoking this morning?

The jays have had poor offense most of the year?

Huh?

They're one of the elite offenses in baseball.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#291182) #
Colby Rasmus is a really good Center Fielder having a non-normal season. He's easily capable of being very, very good, except he just doesn't get there, ever. Even with his career being interrupted by injuries, he's still a very good CF.

Two thing which matter: 1) He's supposed to be healthy or on the D.L. It' that simple. 2) This is his walk year, his Free Agent payday. He shouldn't be this bad.

Either he's mailing in his season, or he has no clue what is wrong. He's the Number One Free Agent CF this coming offseason, that gets him his money ($10-12.5 MM per), just not the big money ($15-17.5 MM per), he could have gotten.
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#291183) #
Colby is hitting right around his career average.

What are you talking about?
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#291184) #
And when you say "i like to look at the issues that got us here", you realize that "here" is the 7th best record in baseball and a playoff spot, right?

Following that sentence should be a list of positives, not negatives.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#291185) #
Valencia is still better vs RHP than goins.

Well, looking at their career numbers, Valencia has a .274 wOBA and Goins a .266. Which means Valencia has been slightly better. However, I don't know that he is right now a better hitter. Not that it matters anyway, as far as the discussion in this thread goes -- the relevant comparison is to Francisco (or Gose) rather than to Goins.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#291186) #
I should've been clearer -- those are their numbers against RHPs.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#291187) #
Juan Francisco, meanwhile, has a career .348 wOBA vs RHPs (255/.317/.490). This season he's a .389 wOBA (.262/.333/.569). He's hit 15 HRs vs. RHPs this year, in 202 ABs. That's about a 45 HR pace over 600 ABs. Maybe could've used that power in the 9th inning last night (if you weren't going to use it to start with).
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#291188) #
They're one of the elite offenses in baseball.

But not consistent. Go game-by-game, too many places, one hit changes the game. Too many places, not enough offense matters.
Example one:
June 07, verses St. Louis. Buehrle 7.0 IP, 1 ER, loss, offense doesn't show up. June 12, Baltimore. Buehrle 6.1 IP, 4ER, loss with only two runs scored. There are at least another 2-3 games where Buehrle pitches well or better than that and doesn't get a win, poor offense.
Example two:
23-26 April 4 straight losses. 9-11 May 3 game sweep by Los Angeles. 17-19 June 3 game sweep by New York. 3-6 July 4 game sweep by Oakland plus a fifth straight loss next game.
Example three:
In one-run games, their record is 8-11. In two-run games, their record is 13-14. Neither of those records are very good.

This Jays' team is either very, very good or very, very bad. They are very infrequently neither.


Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#291189) #
Colby Rasmus is hitting for average.
In Toronto, Colby is hitting:
2011: .173 .201 .316;
2012: .223 .289 .400;
2013: .276 .338 .501;
2014: .218 .278 .444.
And who's saying Colby's doing well? It's sure not me.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#291190) #
For a guy with 4-17 career record, this McHugh fella is pretty good.

No kidding.  Very good control of the hook, and a nice break on it too.   What are the odds that he finishes above .500 for his career?  He's in quite a hole, but I would say that is about 50/50. 
acepinball - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#291191) #
I also thought Francisco's absence was peculiar. Maybe the thought was to shield Juan from McHugh's high K %age, R/L platoon be damned?

Even If that's the case, the decision to have him maybe hit for Tolleson instead of for Valencia is still curious. LH hitters were hitting .311 off of Qualls. I thought the hope was for Navarro or Reimold to get on base and then pray for a blast from Rasmus (K) or Juan. Instead, Valencia looked at a breaking ball that Juan probably would have whiffed on.

Because let's face it, Valencia should NOT be getting regular work vs. RHP. Maybe the idea was to get a look at him defensively at first?
grjas - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#291194) #
Rasmus is not hitting at career average in terms of BA or OBP though closer in OPS. But the Jays didn't acquire him to hit at his career averages given a number of down seasons. They brought him in to hit like last year

Anyway he's here for now so may as we'll play him. Hopefully he can find one of his hot spells

John Northey - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#291195) #
So, what did AA do right and wrong since the end of 2013's season?
Wrong:
  • Didn't sign/trade for a big pitcher as he said was his #1 goal...but as I said in comment #291063 only 2 of the 15 have had a good year (over 100 ERA+ and somewhat healthy) while 5 have ERA+'s in the 95-101 range, 5 in the 85-94 range (endurable), and 3 worse than 85 (the 'oh crap' zone).  IE: more of the $10+ mil pitchers last winter have had 'oh crap' years than 'that is what we wanted' years.  That doesn't add in Tanaka who was going gangbusters for the Yankees until he got hurt (yeah, I'd still want him here but that was a bizarre deal he got).  Yes, many here wanted Kazmir but to get him here it probably would've taken a 3rd year (Oakland is a pitchers park, SkyDome isn't) and would you commit to 3 years to a guy who has had as many problems as he has had?  Really? 
  • No big trades/free agents for 2B. his other top priority.  The best was Robinson Cano who cost over $200 mil to sign and is having a great year again (143 OPS+, 4.1 WAR) for one of the top teams fighting to get that last playoff slot but somehow I think no one here expected Rogers to shell out $24 mil a year for a decade.  Others for 2B we all wanted were Dustin Ackley (now in LF for Seattle, 92 OPS+), Nick Franklin (now with the Rays as part of the 3 team David Price deal..razzen frazzen Rays but still in AAA so might not have been helpful this year).

Right:

  • Catchers: Signed Dioner Navarro as a free agent (94 OPS+, decent defense) while letting JPA go (69 OPS+), didn't sign Brian McCann who got a 5 year $17 mil a year deal and is hitting for an 85 OPS+, traded Brad Lincoln (2 G) for Erik Kratz (played meh here then traded for Danny Valencia who might be a key piece down the stretch, also cost the Jays Liam Hendriks who AA got off waivers) and Rob Rasmussen (10 solid innings as a #7/8 guy).
  • Signed Steven Tolleson as a free agent. Solid backup at 3B/2B
  • Signed Munenori Kawasaki for less than his option was
  • Signed Juan Francisco as a free agent
  • Selected Nolan Reimold off waivers
  • Called up Stroman and let him start rather than chasing more retreads. Sounds obvious now but at the time it sure wasn't.

Those rights I think more than outweigh the wrongs.  Especially when you look at how much more tied his hands would be financially had he signed any of those free agent starters other than the 2 who have had good years.

Btw, did anyone else notice that AA purchased Brett Wallace from the Baltimore Orioles? I remember not that long ago many here were annoyed about losing him but he produced just -0.6 WAR for Houston.  He was part of that whole Roy Halladay trade, where the Jays flipped Michael Taylor to get him then flipped him to get Gose.  Taylor has a 13 OPS+ lifetime over 81 PA and is now in the White Sox minors (age 28).  The guy AA also wanted was Domonic Brown iirc and he has a 73 OPS+ this year after his breakout 124 last year so is down to 98 lifetime now at age 26 with a -1.0 WAR lifetime (-1.4 this year).  Gose is at +0.8 this year (bWAR) 1.5 lifetime.  So of all the guys AA could've had in that trade he seems to have kept the right one.  d'Arnaud, btw, is at -0.7 this year, -1.0 lifetime (88 OPS+ so far this year) and could still be the best out of the entire trade.  Wonder if Halladay could be conned into coming back out of retirement to pitch this September? He did resign here after all :)

Digging into this really points out the risks in trades/free agency doesn't it?
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#291196) #
No big trades/free agents for 2B.

Don't see how this is a failure at all. We've gotten league-average performance from 2B at a league minimum price. That's a huge success for Anthopoulos this year -- probably his greatest.

FanGraphs had a story on this just a few days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-have-we-seen-at-the-projected-worst-positions-in-baseball/
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#291197) #
"They're one of the elite offenses in baseball.

But not consistent. "

you know you're making this up, right?


Runs per game:

8+: 16
7: 14
6: 10
5: 10
4: 18
3: 16
2: 11
1: 10
0: 7
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#291198) #
"Rasmus is not hitting at career average in terms of BA or OBP though closer in OPS."

you might not be aware about how far offense is down this year.

MLB average ops this year is .705.

Colby's slightly below his career average and league average this year (96ops+ and 97wrc+), but its a negligible difference.

For $7m, league average hitting from a CF is a bargain.
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#291200) #
IIRC, the major criticisms of the Jays coming into the season:

1) they needed an ace SP.
2) they needed a 2nd depth SP.
3) they needed an LF.
4) they needed a 2nd baseman.
5) they needed bigtime bench help in all positions.

Most of these issues have been addressed this year, aside from #1.

1) still not filled.
2) Stroman/Hutch/Happ have proven worthy of AA's faith in them, and proven that signing a big money mid-rotation SP would have been a waste.
3) Melky proved that AA signing him was a smart move, and that the tumor last year was an awful stroke of luck.
4/5) AA's faith in Lawrie's defense at 2B, and his ability to make smart waiver wire selections (Francisco, reimold) trades (Valencia), and smart minor league signings (Tolleson, Kawasaki), and his willingness to replace favorites (goins) with hot hands (tolleson) has proven that a) you don't need to pay money for a good bench and b) AA is still a pretty decent judge of talent.


The fact that most of the needs have been filled is exactly why the Jays have the 7th best record in baseball, even with all the injuries.

But he still hasn't addressed the need for an ace, and this season has surprisingly created a new area of need that wasn't apparent in the offseason - quality bullpen help.

although to be fair, there is a chance that youngsters Sanchez and Rasmussen could help solve that second problem pretty effectively.


Still, though, I think he may have choked on the issue of getting an Ace.

Based on what TB received, I think the Jays could have had a decent shot at getting Price for a package of:

1) 2 of Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Barreto
2) 2 of Morrow, Nolin, Lugo, Smith, Davis

Which we really should have done, as it would have made us one of the WS favorites both this year and next year.
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#291201) #
"He was part of that whole Roy Halladay trade, where the Jays flipped Michael Taylor to get him then flipped him to get Gose. "

That Halladay trade is still the worst move AA made....but it wasn't his fault after Halladay demanded a trade only to Philly.

But it was silly that we didn't get all their top prospects, including Brown. Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball and was signing an affordable extension.

Not that it would have made a difference, since Brown wasn't good anyways.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#291202) #
Stroman is an ace. Proven, shmoven.

Against the lefty Oberholtzer, Gibbons sends out Valencia at first base, Tolleson at third, Goins at second and Gose in centerfield.  That's 3 starts in the last 5 games there for Gose. 

electric carrot - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#291203) #
Based on what TB received, I think the Jays could have had a decent shot at getting Price for a package of:

1) 2 of Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Barreto
2) 2 of Morrow, Nolin, Lugo, Smith, Davis

Which we really should have done, as it would have made us one of the WS favorites both this year and next year.

Agreed uglyoneYour entire comment is right on the money.
christaylor - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#291204) #
I don't know what the fuss is about. It might be that this is not the best Jays team of the last decade but they have the best shot at a division win since the WS years.

That said, it'll be a massive surprise if the AL WS reps aren't the A's or the Tigers. Enjoy the ride for the last two months and come October root for anyone but the aforementioned (which ought to be easy for any Jays fan with memories of 87-91.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#291205) #
Based on what TB received, I think the Jays could have had a decent shot at getting Price for a package of:

1) 2 of Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Barreto
2) 2 of Morrow, Nolin, Lugo, Smith, Davis

Which we really should have done, as it would have made us one of the WS favorites both this year and next year.

With a budget of how much next year? 

Incidentally, Shi Davidi suggests that the AL East equivalency of the Price package would be Stroman, Lawrie and Sanchez.  It is true that the package the Rays received included two major-league ready players and that they would have likely asked for a little more from the Jays than from the Tigers.  I do think that Smyly is closer to Hutchison than to Stroman, but the Jays do not really have a comparable to Nick Franklin. 
scottt - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#291206) #
There was no way to get Price without picking salary and I'm sure the Rays were looking to shed a few millions anyway.
85bluejay - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#291210) #
That Halladay trade is still the worst move AA made....

Debatable especially since Halladay & his agent had all the leverage - but uglyone, imagine if AA had taken your advice and shipped Halladay to the Yankees straight up for "can't miss" prospect Jesus Montero.
Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#291211) #
That Halladay trade is still the worst move AA made....

That seems unlikely to me - he's done much worse elsewhere. For one thing, should Anthony Gose and R.A. Dickey help the team win a championship, the trade is obviously a win for the Jays. The guy they gave up is finished, the Phillies didn't win another title, and Halladay wasn't likely to help the Jays win one in the two good years he turned out to have left.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#291214) #
Everytime the Jays lose a poorly hit game, I expect a losing streak possible.

Dickey needs to remember that slow knuckler, his hard one could be a batting practise fastball if it doesn't break enough.
uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#291215) #
"With a budget of how much next year?"

around the same as this year I think. Maybe a bit more.

"Incidentally, Shi Davidi suggests that the AL East equivalency of the Price package would be Stroman, Lawrie and Sanchez. It is true that the package the Rays received included two major-league ready players and that they would have likely asked for a little more from the Jays than from the Tigers. I do think that Smyly is closer to Hutchison than to Stroman, but the Jays do not really have a comparable to Nick Franklin."

I don't really see how Smyly or Franklin can be compared to Stroman and Lawrie in value, to be honest.

scottt - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#291216) #
You only trade inside the division when you clearly win the trade or you have no hope of competing in the short term.

It's a no starter for the Jays.

uglyone - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#291217) #
"Debatable especially since Halladay & his agent had all the leverage - but uglyone, imagine if AA had taken your advice and shipped Halladay to the Yankees straight up for "can't miss" prospect Jesus Montero."

yep, that would have been dumb!

Mike Green - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#291218) #
That's not realistic, uglyone.  Price is going to get about $20 million in arbitration.  According to BBRef, if the club picks up Lind's option and declines Happ's, Morrow's and McGowan's, payroll would be $126 million plus Price's arb figure.  They would probably need to replace McGowan and Sanchez and possibly Hutchison, so all told it would get you to about $150 million instead of $132.  That's a lot of coin.

Personally, I'd bet that the Rays insisted on one of Stroman and Lawrie if they were trading with the Jays.  Talks didn't go far and I suspect that was the sticking point.  Perhaps another way to look at it is what the Tigers had to give up to get Price- Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly.  Lawrie is a pretty good approximation of Austin Jackson in value and experience.  Smyly and Hutchison are roughly comparable.  I think that the Rays (like the Red Sox) are aiming to compete in 2015, and players like Barreto were not their primary interest.  You'll notice that they kept Ben Zobrist. 

Eephus - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#291219) #
Boy, speed can kill ya when you're not careful. I'd like to see Altuve and Billy Hamilton race around the bases one day (Billy would probably win, but it'd be closer than you think).
JB21 - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#291220) #
That. Hurts.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#291221) #
This great offense has runners at First and Third with no one out and they get just one run.

It doesn't matter who's on this team (or which year it is), the Jays always struggle verses the young kids they face, and it doesn't matter how good or bad the kids are.
JB21 - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#291222) #
Evidence to back this up?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#291223) #
Since 1980? You must be joking.
Eephus - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#291224) #
Pretty glad these guys are buried in the AL West basement. I'm not a fan of sending a guy for an in-the-park homer when the game is more than likely over in your favour. And don't get me started on the Astros actually challenging it (even if he was indeed safe).
Eephus - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#291226) #
That being said, nice catch by Grossman and an absolutely MARVELOUS catch by Hoes just now.
Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#291227) #
This great offense has runners at First and Third with no one out and they get just one run.

You realize that used to happen to the 1927 Yankees as well? With Ruth, Gehrig, Meusel coming up? It's baseball. Failure is more common than success.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#291228) #
Ask Cito Gaston, he watched it happen. Talk to the guys doing the broadcasts since then, because they are the one who first remarked on it, every year. I lived it, I believed them when they said it, because I saw it. From Barfield and Moseby to Carter and White to Delgado and Green to now it hasn't changed.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#291229) #
Colin McHugh fits the bill with 142.1 career innings. They didn't beat him. Brett Olberholtzer fits the bill with 155.1 career innings. They didn't beat him.
Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#291230) #
the Jays always struggle verses the young kids they face

Not quite always. This is the 8th time this season the Jays have been beaten by a starting pitcher who's 25 years old or younger (along with Olberholzer, they've lost to Chris Archer, Chris Sale, Shelby Miller, Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana, Tyler Skaggs, Chase Whitley.) Some pretty good pitchers in there.

Meanwhile, the Jays have hung 11 losses on starting pitchers 25 years old or younger: Olberholzer, Whitley, Skaggs, Michael Pineda, Matt Moore, Danny Salazar, Drew Pomeranz, Aaron Brooks, Brandon Workman, and Rubby De La Rosa (twice.)
Chuck - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#291232) #
Confirmation bias.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#291233) #
How well do they do with the really fresh ones?
Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#291234) #
Talk to the guys doing the broadcasts since then, because they are the one who first remarked on it, every year.

Of course they say it. Broadcasters always say that, and I'm sure they always believe it. They're still wrong. People who watch one team all season always end up thinking things like that only happen on a regular basis to the particular team they see all the time. It's an occupational hazard, this sort of tunnel vision. It generally affects most fans as well, most of whom are also only watching one team with any kind of attention.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#291235) #
Just remember, a 2-8 game run starts really quick, especially after 0-2. The Jays are playing for a postseason berth aren't they?
Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#291236) #
Brett Olberholtzer fits the bill with 155.1 career innings. They didn't beat him.

Yes they did. Back in April, when he had only 77.1 career innings.
Chuck - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#291237) #
I'm not a fan of sending a guy for an in-the-park homer when the game is more than likely over in your favour.

Nah, it's a rare enough thing that you give your guy a chance to get it (he may never get another). And if the ump bolloxed the call, call him on it.

And a big lead is still not a sure thing. As long as the losing team is trying, the winning team has a right to do the same.

Magpie - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#291238) #
And anyway. Brett Olberholzer is a real live major league pitcher, not some category type. He's coming off two strong starts against Oakland - you know, the best team in the league - and coming into tonight's game, he was 3-1, 3.15 since early May. The teams he'd beaten were Oakland, Baltimore, and Seattle - three of the better teams in the league.
Chuck - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#291239) #
The Jays are playing for a postseason berth aren't they?

So they should win every night without exception? And the offense should be good every night? And the defense should be good every night? And everyone should remember how to do their job (because the only reason they ever fail is a shaky memory)?

As long as expectations are realistic.

TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#291240) #
I don't really see how Smyly or Franklin can be compared to Stroman and Lawrie in value, to be honest.

Agreed. I found all the speculation involving Stroman a bit silly really. What team in playoff contention ever trades their top starter at the trade deadline? Yeah, he's only had 10 starts or whatever, but still, there's no way you trade a guy who's been pitching like he has, and surely the Rays would've understood that. Now who knows what they asked for -- I'm sure they did try to get Stroman, at least initially -- but Hutchison and Lawrie, plus a young prospect (probably worse than Barreto, but in that range) would be comparable to what they got.

I kind of wonder if Anthopoulos had to take Stroman off the table at some point. I can see how his name would've been at the heart of early trade talks, and how his performance would've, at some point, required Anthopoulos to say he was no longer available. Doing that might've helped scupper a trade. Of course, all this assumes there was even serious trade talk between the teams to begin with.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#291241) #
That's not realistic, uglyone. Price is going to get about $20 million in arbitration.

If you could trade Buehrle in the off-season, it would all work out.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#291242) #
Blue Jays released 2012 draft pick Tyler Gonzales. Details on MLB Trade Rumors site. He was pick 60 in 2012 and signed for $750 K.
John Northey - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#291244) #
And if the Jays traded Buehrle then where would they be right now?  Doubt it would be in a playoff position.

Buehrle winning starts...
5+ runs for Jays: 10-0, 11-3, 5-0, 7-2, 6-1, 7-3, 7-3, 5-2, 9-6, 8-5, 9-6, 7-6  - these games should've been wins regardless of starter (12 games)
3-4 runs for Jays: 4-0, 3-0, 4-2 (3 wins), 4-6, 3-7 (2 losses) - winnable, but not easily
1-2 runs for Jays: 2-4, 1-5, 1-8 Jays 0-3 but hard to win in these cases
0 runs for Jays: 0-4, 0-5 - no one can win without their own team scoring

So the Jays won every game that they should've won with Buehrle on the mound (the 5+ for games), were 3-2 in the 'winnable but not easy' games (3 to 4 runs for), lost the only game he got 2 runs of support (hard to win), and lost the 4 0 or 1 run games (very hard or impossible to win).

Instead of Buehrle doing those starts we'd probably have had a few AAA guys doing the work instead, maybe Stroman a bit earlier but not a lot.  Liam Hendriks might have got more than 3 starts, McGowan might have been left to fend for himself longer in the rotation, Redmond might have been starting, Rogers might have been used, who knows?  The pen would've been a lot more tired, that is a safe bet too.

So yeah, the Jays could've let Buehrle go in the winter to someone who wanted him badly enough.  But then I don't think we'd have been talking about getting David Price but instead about trading away parts of the team to rebuild.
John Northey - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#291245) #
Yeah, 16 walks and 16 strikeouts in 25 1/3 IP over 2 seasons suggests he just didn't have it as a pro.  Gotta suck to be 21 years old and have the career you dreamed about over so soon.  Someone might sign him but a guy with that track record in rookie ball will have trouble finding a taker.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#291246) #
So yeah, the Jays could've let Buehrle go in the winter to someone who wanted him badly enough. But then I don't think we'd have been talking about getting David Price but instead about trading away parts of the team to rebuild.

I was obviously talking about next off-season.
Gerry - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#291247) #
Before last nights game Bautista and the Astros mascot played with dolls.
bpoz - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#291248) #
Thanks Gerry. The doll show was priceless.
grjas - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#291250) #
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, August 02 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#291241) #
That's not realistic, uglyone. Price is going to get about $20 million in arbitration.

If you could trade Buehrle in the off-season, it would all work out.

Yeah I agree. There are ways to work around budget limitations which virtually every team has.

In fairness to AA, having the two best starters available coming from your own division was bad luck. It does make a deal more challenging. More so this year than budget, I suspect.
PeterG - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#291253) #
I would not be surprised to see one of Buerhle or Dickey traded this off season. Have to begin getting younger gradually.
finch - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#291256) #
I wouldn't be opposed to trading Dickey in the off season. Buerhle, Stroman, Sanchez, Hutchison, Happ/FA/Nolin/Norris.

The only probably I see is that Buerhle is the only true innings eater. It might put a strain on the bullpen.

Any chances Drebek has a shot for the 5th starter? Or is he destined to the bullpen moving forward?
greenfrog - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#291259) #
If I were the Giants GM, I might consider making a bid for Dickey, who has been terrific in AT&T Park (opponents are hitting 173/200/235 against him there). Nice roomy park for Dickey's pre-retirement years.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#291260) #
I think getting younger might be easier with the Starters. It might not be necessary to do it slowly.

Marcus Stroman can pitch effectively as a Starter, up here. Drew Hutchison can pitch effectively as a Starter, up here.

I need to see a lot more of Aaron Sanchez before I pass judgement. He's effective as a Reliever, so far. By the end of the Season/Postseason, we will all have a better idea of where Sanchez is.

I need to see what Sean Nolin can do, as a Starter, up here.
Starting August 22nd, Toronto's season gets interesting with 9 games verses Tampa Bay and no David Price, but they can still pitch. They have 6 games verses Boston, they can hit, but no Starting Staff. They have 7 games verses New York, who hasn't got much, still wins, contending for Wild Card. They have 6 Games verses Baltimore,their only competition for the Division. Also included are 3 games at home at season's end. The outliers are 3 games verses Chicago Cubs, who are not that good; and 4 games verses Seattle, who are good and competing for a Wild Card.
This would be an ideal testing ground for Nolin.

Happ has an option, which I would pick up. If you are sure of 3 of the 4 kids, then one of Mark Buehrle or R.A. Dickey could go this Off-Season.
finch - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#291261) #
I totally forgot about Morrow too but I think he can't really be trusted. I assume the Jays won't pick up the option and of course, someone like Oakland or Tampa Bay will pick him up and he will realize his potential. I joke but it will probably happen.

If they trade Dickey and not pick up the option for Morrow, that will free up $22M. Might be able to pick up a bat. I would like for them to resign Cabrera. Letting Rasmus and Janssen go will free up an additional $11M.

Of the $33M, I think Cabrera would eat up roughly $11M. Taking his salary of $8M/season, the jays will have $30M to play with, which is quite intriguing.
John Northey - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#291262) #
I would be surprised to see Buerhle or Dickey traded unless the Jays get something good that is ready for the majors in return (ie: not prospects but guys who have at least played a month in the majors minimum).  This is a team that is in serious playoff contention in a division where the big beasts (Red Sox/Yankees) are at a low ebb. Not the time to start a rebuild.

Dickey/Buehrle are good inning eaters who both will get 200+ IP and an ERA+ from 95-105 (at least expected to).  That has a ton of value when you are breaking in kids.  Stroman has been fantastic, hopefully the next Dave Stieb/Roy Halladay for the Jays (IE: true ace).  Hutchison has been up and down (6 times allowing 5+ runs, 7 times 1 or 0 runs) and is very good as a 4th starter with potential for more.  Happ is an ideal #6 guy - someone you can count on for a 90-ish ERA+ who has really good games and really bad ones.  Then comes all the kids in the minors fighting for that #5 hole - Sanchez, Graveman (started in AAA now after starting in Lansing this year...Jays see something there), Cole, Lawrence (forcing his way into the picture), Nolin, Norris, and more I'm sure I'm forgetting.  Sanchez the clear favorite of course, but any of the other kids could force their way onto the staff by May if they get off to a hot start and someone goes down.

However, looking at that do you see an excess?  I sure don't.  I do not want to have Sanchez and Happ in the rotation unless injuries happen.  Ideally one of them is in the pen to start 2015.  You need to be 8 deep in starters to have a real shot as injuries happen.  This team will be shooting for the playoffs in 2015 and no way do they do that with multiple rookies in the rotation.
finch - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#291266) #
Would you keep Dickey/Buerhle or would you rather sign a FA like Max Scherzer at $125/5?

I take Scherzer plus whatever prospects you get for Dickey.
uglyone - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#291267) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-stroman-kaat-costas-players-on-flood-and-free-agency/



Marcus Stroman has all the looks of an ace in the making. The 23-year-old Toronto Blue Jays righthander has won seven of his first nine big-league decisions and has a 3.03 ERA and a 2.97 FIP. Remove six-and-a-third relief innings from the equation and his ERA is 2.12.

Drafted 22nd overall in 2012 out of Duke Universiry, Stroman thrives on power and diversity. His radar readings regularly reach 95 and his repertoire includes two- and four-seam fastballs, a cutter, a slider, a curveball and a changeup. The rookie has allowed just one run over his last 21 innings. His ability to keep hitters off balance is a big reason why.

“I have a really good mix right now,” acknowledged Stroman earlier this week. “They can’t sit on any one pitch and over the course of a game I’m using all of them.”

The Red Sox found that out recently, as the righty dominated them in back-to-back outings. Among those impressed with his repertoire was Brock Holt, who was 16 for his last 34 coming into his first meeting with Stroman.

“When I faced him in Toronto, he struck me out three times,” said Holt. “He’s got good stuff. He’s fearless and can throw everything for strikes. He’s got a good sharp slider-curveball, whatever it is. He can back-foot it to lefties, go underneath your hands. He throws a little cutter and a good two-seam he can run back. He’s got a changeup. I mean, he’s got pretty much everything.”

Stroman has always had a wide array of offerings, although usage and effectiveness have varied. For the most part, last year’s four-pitch mix has become a six-pitch mix. He said he’s thrown more two-seamers recently, and that his cutter has become “a huge weapon.”

In May of last year, Stroman told he was “throwing a slider-cutter… anywhere from 85 to 88 [mph].’ He elaborated that he used to throw both, but that they had evolved into the same pitch. Now it’s back to two.

“Last year I was kind of in between, trying to refine a little bit,” explained Stroman. “Now I’m throwing all three spinning pitches: slider, cutter, curveball. I just kind of figured out grips, and how I wanted to use each one in certain counts. And I really harnessed the ability to throw them exactly how I wanted. I made the cutter really small. I made the slider the bigger harder one, and then I have the even bigger one with more of a slurve break. My curve is anywhere ftom 81-84, my slider is anywhere from 86-89, and my cutter is 89-92. Mostly I figured out a way to have them all not mesh into one another.”

Pitching coach Pete Walker feels separation is key. He also sees Stroman’s ability to command all three pitches as unique.

“He has the knack to spin a baseball as good as anybody,” said Walker. “It’s unusual to be able to throw three different breaking balls, and he’s throwing them all for strikes at the major league level. The biggest concern when you’re throwing three different breaking balls – even sometimes when you’re throwing two different breaking balls – is that you end up throwing that in-between pitch. We’re trying to keep them so they don’t all meld together. He’s really concentrating on the velocities of those pitches, making sure he has a good feel for each one.”

Despite his diverse repertoire, some speculated Stroman’s big-league role would be as a power reliever. His 5-foot-9 frame played into that thinking, with Tom “Flash” Gordon comps dotting his prospect reports. It’s becoming clear he has a bright future in the Blue Jays’ rotation. Walker agrees he profiles best as a starter.

“He’s got a pretty wide arsenal at his disposal, and that doesn’t always play out of the bullpen” said Walker. “We tried to consolidate a little bit [in his relief outings] and that didn’t work as well. As a starter, he has more flexibility to use all of his pitches and incorporate them at different times. They’re sharp when he needs them to be sharp. He’s throwing the ball really well right now.”
scottt - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#291269) #
Dickie is worth 1.5 WAR for 12M. Could be bought out for 1M.  Buerhle, 3.6 WAR for 18M. 19M next year.

 (If he doesn't fade, Buerhle would make a fine QO a year from now.)

Happ is worth 1.1 WAR and has a 6.7M option.
Hutch and Stroman 1.1 and 2.0 WAR for 500K.

Is it more than an accouting exercise?

JB21 - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#291273) #
Jays 5 hits in their first 9 AB's, but only score 1 run.

Stro sure is fun to watch pitch, that two seemer for his first K was nasty.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#291274) #
RA Dickey is under contract for 2015 at $12.0 MM. He has a 2016 option for $12.0 MM that can be bought out for $1.0 MM. In other words scottt, you have to stop travelling to the future so much, it's confusing your present.

The whole object of trading Dickey or Buehrle isn't saving money. It bring up the kids if they are ready.

Stroman and Hutchison are ready and they are here. Sanchez might be ready, we don't know. He's here so they can figure that out. Decisions need to be made, very soon on Sean Nolin. Is he ready? They are keeping Happ as he's very cost-effective, good value for his price.

But that just makes three Starters for sure. One of Sanchez or Nolin MUST be ready, or you can't trade anyone.
JB21 - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#291275) #
6 hits and 2 walks in two innings and only one run to show for it. Good/bad cluster luck all at once.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#291277) #
But getting beat by Scott Feldman is a disgrace.
Eephus - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#291278) #
Man, for a bad team these guys are so annoying.

This nice little run since the all-star break has been really good, but this lineup could sure use Edwin and Adam Lind (7-20, 3 HR career versus Feldman) today.

China fan - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#291279) #
Stroman is removed after completing only 3 innings.  The shortest start of Stroman's career.  It was a bit early for us to be anointing him as the ace of the staff (although he was certainly pitching like one).  Now we'll begin to see what he's made of.  How does he handle adversity?  How does he handle the adjustments that the league's hitters are already making to him as they see the scouting reports?  Can he adjust to the adjustments?  Can he become a true ace?
Magpie - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#291280) #
But getting beat by Scott Feldman is a disgrace.

I suppose the fans of other teams say the same thing about getting beat by Drew Hutchison, which is pretty much the same thing.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#291281) #
And they think they are beating Baltimore starting Tuesday? Not a chance, this 0-3 becomes 0-6 real easy.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#291282) #
Someone's been drinking. Hutchison will always be better than Feldman.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#291283) #
First inning, Reyes singles and tries to reach 2nd on the play? That I don't understand. Second inning, 1st and third with one out and a run in. That's it? Third inning, bases loaded and one out and nothing. That's now an issue. The Jays are on a slide, if lucky, just another 2-8 game run.
Eephus - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#291284) #
Take away those Texas years (because who the hell wants to pitch there) and you could do a lot worse if Drew Hutchison turns out to be just the next Scott Feldman.

Blue Jays pitchers could really do themselves a favour and stop throwing the ball down the first base line. Give your catcher a chance to at least throw out somebody.

JB21 - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#291285) #
Reyes was safe at second. Do you enjoy trolling us all or do you actually believe what you type? I'm assuming we are all getting got.

Jays slogan for the Bmore series is "battle of first place". If the Jays lose today and the O's win tomorrow there is no battle for first place in the upcoming series.
Chuck - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#291286) #
I suppose the fans of other teams say the same thing about getting beat by Drew Hutchison, which is pretty much the same thing.

Sisyphus, it is time to put away the boulder.

Eephus - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#291287) #
Any team that wears hats that disgustingly orange deserves to wallow in suck forever. Or at least for a couple of decades.

Okay, I feel better. Lets move on and bring on the Orioles.

Gerry - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#291288) #
I want to preface this comment by saying I have no idea what is going on in the Jays dressing room.

After the trade deadline some players expressed disappointment that no significant trades were made. Then yesterday I saw a comment that some players might request a trade in the off season if the Jays do not make the playoffs because they think ownership is not interested in winning. Now the Jays have lost three straight while missing a big hit in key situations. If those comments are the opinion of the majority of the veterans in the room then Gibby will have some player motivation work to do to avoid letting it get out of hand. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays had a team meeting before Tuesday's game.
PeterG - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#291289) #
if that is the feeling of some of the players, then those players need to be changed. It is too soon to say if that might be the case. The team does have to address the situation of age though and become gradually younger....beginning this off season.
Magpie - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#291290) #
I completely agree that it would be prudent for Anthopoulos - him, not Gibbons - to have an explanatory word with a Bautista and Janssen when the team comes home. They were unhappy enough to talk about things out loud, and their position in the game and with the team pretty much guarantees that other players will pay attention.

But from what I saw this weekend, all that actually happened was a team with a short-handed offense ran into some good starting pitching. It's disappointing that two of those pitchers (Oberholzer and Feldman) are pretty average (ERA+ of 96 and 91). But that's baseball. The Jays think they're competing for a division title with two pretty average starters (Happ and Hutchison, ERA+ of 94 and 88.)
Chuck - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#291291) #
The acquired-for-no-fathomable-reason Cole Gillespie has been outrighted.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 03 2014 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#291293) #
A.A.'s clearing 40-Man Roster space.
smcs - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#291294) #
The acquired-for-no-fathomable-reason Cole Gillespie has been outrighted.

He was acquired because he is better than Brad Glenn and Darin Mastroianni. 2 games before he was acquired, Encarnacion started in LF. They needed outfielders, so they got Gillespie and Reimold, although they probably did not think they would get both.

That was a bad series for the Jays, and they may be 4 games back of the Orioles by Tuesday. However, the Jays have now played 7 more road games than home games, and have 5 off-days in less than a month. They still have a fantastic opportunity to make up a bunch of ground, and should be doing whatever they can to catch up.
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#291295) #
It appears the clock might be running out on Colby Rasmus and for that, I'm really disappointed. He was acquired for virtually nothing, and still is quite young. Bautista and Encarnacion didn't break out until their late 20's and around 1500 at bats. With Colby's power, I just can't help but think he'll put together a few monster seasons before he's done.

bpoz - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#291297) #
I think the Jays will try to compete next year.

They will have to look at their budget. There are some FAs: Janssen over 2 years seems irreplaceable in the pen, Cabrera & Rasmus both bring some value, offensively & defensively to the team, but I think that they can be replaced.That will affect the budget somehow.

The rotation could be very strong with Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman & Hutch. Buehrle is probably not as good next year, but this off season he will have a very high trade value and the budget looks much healthier with his salary off. Then again the $19 mil gets you reliability any other veteran at $15 mil probably is not reliable to the same degree. Stroman & Hutch being good & young must grow with the team.
The 5th & 6th spot should be OK with an assortment of Happ, Sanchez, Nolin and others like Norris. It could even be very good, the background is there.
John Northey - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#291298) #
The thing is the Jays don't have $15-20 mil if they cut Cabrera and Rasmus and Janssen as other players get raises.
To view the payroll I go to Cot's most often.
CA: Navarro - raise of $2 mil ($3 to $5 mil)
1B: Encarnacion - $1 mil raise ($9 to 10)
2B: Goins/Tolleson - both Jays choice of payment
3B: Lawrie - first time arbitration, probably a $1-2 mil raise
SS: Reyes - $6 mil raise ($16 to 22 mil)
LF: Cabrera - free agent, getting a raise from $8 mil I'm sure
CF: Rasmus - free agent, getting a raise from $7 mil I'm sure
RF: Bautista - no change
DH: Lind - $500k raise if kept ($1 mil buyout otherwise vs $7 mil made this year)
UT: Valencia - first time arbitration, thus a $1 - $2 mil raise
UT: Reimold - arbitration, could be a $1 - $2 mil raise
UT: Francisco - arbitration, could be a big raise ($4-5 mil) due to power numbers and just $1.35 mil this year
UT: Izturis - same $3 mil wasted
CA: Thole - not sure what his option is worth

So for hitters we see drops of $15 mil by losing Cabrera & Rasmus, but increases totaling (assuming Lind's option is picked up) $16.5 to $20.5 mil based on my guesstimates for arbitration. = net increase of $1.5 to $5.5 mil and no CF or LF.

Pitchers...
Buehrle - $1 mil ($18 to $19)
Dickey - no change
Happ - $1.5 raise (assuming option taken, $6.7 mil vs $5.2 mil salary this year $200k buyout)
Hutch - could be super-2 if so big raise (from ML min to $4 mil maybe?)
Morrow - buyout ($1 mil cost vs $8 mil salary this year or Jays pay $10 mil to see him on a DL next year)
Janssen - free agent, $4 mil saved if not signed
McGowan - $2.5 mil raise ($1.5 to $4 mil or 500k buyout)
Cecil - arbitration, thus a raise but not too much ($1.3 this year, maybe $2 mil next)
Loup - pre-arb I think
Redmond, Rasmussen, Stroman, Sanchez, etc are pre-arb
Romero - $7.5 mil both this year and next with a $600k buyout for 2016 (or the Jays could toss $13.1 mil at him).

Savings: $11 mil letting Morrow & Janssen go. Costs: $8.5 mil (mostly if Hutchison is a super-2 arbitration) = net reduction of $2.5 mil but no closer

So in the end we see a $2.5 saving from pitching, an increase of $1.5 to $5.5 for hitting = savings of $1 mil or increase of $3 mil (IE: payroll about where it is now) while having no LF, CF, or closer.  To retain any of those 3, let along get new guys, the Jays will need to either clear salary or get a payroll bump from Rogers.  The only deadweight is Romero really as everyone else has value.  Reyes really hurts starting in 2015 though as he now will make $22 miil a year though 2017 with a $22 mil (or $4 mil buyout) contract for 2018.  Buehrle is in the final year of his deal ($19 mil).  No one else is a real killer on payroll who might not be worth the salary (Dickey, Bautista, Encarnacion are all $10+ but all easily worth their contracts).
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#291299) #
Just a few points to ponder.

For the Toronto F.O. to increase payroll, the Jays must be in the Postseason this year, because I believe a real good finish just isn't enough any more.

To get into the Postseason, with existing players (including those on the D.L.), may not happen without anything else happening.

Acquiring Players is difficult due to recent cost changes and financial considerations. But the only way to increase Postseason chances, is to get better. The only way to get better is to upgrade existing players.

I truly doubt the players A.A. could use on this team will get to him. Either they are claimed by someone else or not put on revocable waivers to start with. Useful additions to this team might get through to be claimed by A.A. I wonder if he can meet the price. Of course, he has to be willing to trade either Buehrle or Dickey (or both, if claimed) and worry about who replaces them later.
Gerry - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#291304) #
No Lawrie in the Dunedin lineup tonight, I wonder if he is in Buffalo?
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#291305) #
If not called up, maybe in Buffalo.
If not in Buffalo, maybe in New Hampshire.
If in New Hampshire, who knows, day off.
if not in Dunedin, sorry, see above.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#291306) #
Reyes was safe at second. Do you enjoy trolling us all or do you actually believe what you type? I'm assuming we are all getting got.

Reading the article on my MLB At Bat App, Reyes said he jarred his shoulder, pulled his hand back off the bag and was out. That was my only source of anything them. I post on my iPhone upon occasion.

If you are offended by that, guess what?
Gerry - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#291307) #
New Hampshire have an off day today.
scottt - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#291308) #
I have a question about Qualifying Offers.

Nobody has ever accepted one, but if one does accept, I assume there are no restriction on trading him. Am I right?

Richard S.S. - Monday, August 04 2014 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#291311) #
On Norris Stomps... uglyone says Lawrie' been reactivated.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2014 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#291336) #
The AL East is now at +10; the Central at +6 and the West at +7.  The AL as a whole is at 118-95 against the NL in interleague play.   Last year, the AL went 154-146 over the season. 
Gerry - Tuesday, August 05 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#291340) #
Tolleson to paternity leave as corresponding move for Lawrie.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2014 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#291341) #
Well, that isn't great timing.  It means presumably that on Wednesday, either Francisco or Kawasaki or Goins gets a start against the lefty.  C'est la vie...
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 05 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#291351) #
I wonder if Lawrie will be doing anything different with his hands at the plate, or whether he's going to continue leaving them exposed to getting hit by inside pitches. It's no doubt hard for a ML hitter to change what he does with his hands in the box.

I feel pessimistic about the Jays' chances of winning the division, but I'll be rooting for them to win this series and stay relevant. It has been frustrating watching this team squander a very large lead in the division, then fight their way back, only to lose three of four in Houston to get knocked back again. I'm sure Beeston, AA and Rogers would highlight the fact that the team is playing meaningful games in August, but I can't help feeling that the Jays should have a better record than they do, in part because they never addressed needs that were apparent in the off-season. Kind of uninspiring. In any event, the team is in the playoff hunt and are (barely) holding down a WC spot, which is significant. I'll keep rooting for them and see whether they can scrap and claw their way into the playoffs.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2014 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#291363) #
August 5 is birthday to a number of past Blue Jays: Eric Hinske, Bobby Kielty, John Way Back Wasdin, John Olerud and Rick Bosetti. 
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, August 05 2014 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#291378) #
Well, that isn't great timing.  It means presumably that on Wednesday, either Francisco or Kawasaki or Goins gets a start against the lefty.  C'est la vie...

Hmm. Couldn't they call up Pillar as an emergency replacement? Then play (exact order not set in stone):

SS Reyes
LF Cabrera
1B Bautista
CA Navarro
RF Reimold
3B Valencia
DH Pillar
2B Lawrie
CF Rasmus

In any case, Gose could also play CF/DH and Rasmus DH/CF or Thole DH (if that's preferable to having one of Francisco/Goins/Kawasaki facing a LHP).

Of course, that leaves the bench with all infielders and no outfielders (or no catchers), so probably not a good idea.. Wouldn't it be nice if EE was available to DH?
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