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The Jays have designated Sergio Santos for assigment. Rob Rassmussen has been recalled. Santos has an ERA of close to eight this season and a WHIP over two. Santos has only four, three up, three down innings this year and only one of them has come after April.

I guess if you don't have money to sign players, the release of a non-performer "sends a message" to the team to win now. This maybe explains why AA was looking at Aaron Sanchez as an option for the major league bullpen, he is a Santos replacement.



And now we are on to another statement series, this one with the Red Sox. When this series conlcudes the Jays will have less than sixty games left and it will be one week to the trade deadline.

Monday: John Lackey vs. Drew Hutchison

Tuesday: Jave Peavy vs. JA (happy) Happ

Wednesday: Clay Buchholz vs. RA Dickey

Thursday (12:37): Rubby De La Rosa vs. Marcus Stroman

Its go time!

Blue Jays DFA Santos, Get Ready for Red Sox | 326 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#290102) #
Mr. Rasmussen, meet Mr. Ortiz. Four straight days.
PeteMoss - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#290104) #
Well its a good thing that Nestor Molina instantly became worse the second he was traded to the White Sox.

Still - does any move involving the White Sox ever work out for the Jays. I suppose they helped in the Ramsus trade that hasn't been bad.
85bluejay - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#290105) #
It's been quite the few days for AA - DFA'ing the 1st pick of his tenure & now DFA'ing 1 of his signature trades - BTW, has a jays GM ever had a successful trade with Kenny Williams ? some teams esp. in the NL will be interested in Santos, maybe the Jays can offload his salary - Interesting that another hard thrower, Jeremy Jeffress, who's had a Good AAA season got the call from the Brewers today.
Mike Green - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#290106) #
Kratz catching and Bautista DHing today while Navarro sits against Lackey.  Navarro is 2-19 against Lackey and Kratz is 1-2 with a walk and a homer.  Lackey has a small but typical platoon differential over his career.  Interestingly, he's done quite a bit better against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters in Fenway over the last couple of years. 
Gerry - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#290107) #
I am not sure what will happen Santos if he is not claimed by another team. He has less than five years major league time and that would let the Jays send him to the minor leagues. But he was previously waived by the Jays when he was a hitter and you can only be waived once without the players consent. If so he might be able to declare free agency. If that is possible it would depress his trade value as a team could just wait on him to clear waivers.
uglyone - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#290108) #
with the current lineup, I'd DH Bautista every day until EE/Lind come back. Gose' fielding is more valuable than having Kratz in the lineup.

As for Santos, its too bad, but it was inevitable. He was truly horrific this year. I wonder if some other team is willing to take a $5m gamble on santos off of waivers. Would save us a bit of money.
Ryan Day - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#290110) #
It's hard to imagine anyone wanting to take on Santos' salary. His stuff is good enough that a lot of teams will be interested in a salvage operation, but spending around a million for the remainder of the season is unlikely - plus the $750K buyout to decline his option. (On the assumption no one is going to commit to $6 million for him in 2015)

I can't see anyone wanting him badly enough to take on his salary when they could just wait for him to be released or for the Jays to decline his option in the off season.

Gerry - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#290111) #
According to "the Twitter" Santos can elect free agency but he loses his contract. So either he is claimed or he goes to Buffalo.
Mike Green - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#290115) #
Brett Lawrie's splint is off and he is back to fielding and taking a few swings.  ETA: two weeks. 
Mike Green - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#290116) #
Encarnacion and Lind are in Florida, and will probably be back a little sooner than that. 
Richard S.S. - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#290117) #
Elected Free Agency means all contracts are null and void. That means Santos' willing to give up approximately $2.185 MM, to be a Free Agent 3.5 months early. The way he's pitching, it should never happen. He needs to figure out what he's doing wrong, before anything good will happen.

Every single player on the team comes back when he's "supposed" to return - and struggles to a degree. How about staying an extra week and maybe they don't struggle as much.

Not being able to trade for help, is simply not be willing to meet the piece, no more, no less.
scottt - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#290118) #
So far, the Brad Lincoln trade for Kratz and Rasmussen has worked out OK.
scottt - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#290119) #
Santos makes 3.7 big ones, of which he would lose a part by declaring free agency, no? ($1.43MM) and possibly a 750K buyout of the remaining 3 club options.

He might just be happy to work on his stuff in the minor like Romero.

Now, will someone claim him?

Richard S.S. - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#290121) #
Santos' issue is he doesn't understand why he can't pitch. He figures that out, he's got a career. He doesn't, he's done.
Bid - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#290122) #
hey, somebody catches that ball...
uglyone - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#290123) #
big big series.

I'm nervous.
CeeBee - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#290124) #
Jays must be nervous too.... and maybe AA as well. My TV is getting a rest after the 3rd inning.
JB21 - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#290125) #
Don't think anybody is nervous now in the Dome. Gotta forget about this bullshiz and move on. The Jays just have to hold on until they can get healthy and hope for more AL East mediocrity.
greenfrog - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#290126) #
This month, TB is 11-4, Baltimore is 10-5, Boston is 8-7 (9-7 after tonight), New York is 9-7 (and they're currently beating Texas 2-1), and Toronto is 6-9 (6-10 after tonight).

At least in July, there has really been only one mediocre team in the division.

Should be an interesting September, anyway. It's a tough division to call. It could come down to who makes the best deadline moves in July and August.
greenfrog - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#290127) #
The Blue Jays' 2014 record by month:

March 0-1
April 12-14
May 21-9
June 12-15
July 6-10 (after tonight)
uglyone - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#290129) #
Mills looks like a solid pickup.

"strikethrower", they said.
John Northey - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#290130) #
Glad I forgot to check the game until I came here tonight.  Mills going 2 innings with 3 HR given up but at least he walked only one (sigh).  Hutch was bound to have a few bad days this year, just sucks it was against Boston but at least he didn't waste a good offensive effort (boy that is stretching it when looking  for a bright side eh?).  Rasmussen and Redmond did a good job saving the rest of the pen for tomorrow at least.

The hitters really need to figure out how to wait for their pitch though... 83 pitches over the first 8 innings is far, far too few.  The last pitcher (Breslow) is the only one getting a workout thanks to Tolleson (6 pitches) and Kawasaki (5) who combines to get more pitches between them in the 9th than the Jays averaged the rest of the game in an inning.  So 99 pitches total for the Red Sox and just one guy who might not be available tomorrow.  Sigh.

Doubt Mills will be here much longer...in fact I'd expect him to be sent down or released tonight so the Jays can have a long man for tomorrow if needed.  The offense though... sheesh... what to do with them?
greenfrog - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#290131) #
For me, the bright side is that this is just one game. The Jays need to win two of the next three to keep the Red Sox from gaining ground.

As I suspected a couple of weeks ago, Bautista isn't fully healthy (he basically confirmed this before the game). I also notice that Gibbons was pleased at how much better Cabrera looked after resting up over the All Star break. I wish the Jays would take note and rotate and rest their regulars more, instead of riding them until they break. Of course, to do this arguably would have required more depth than the Jays were willing to add in the off-season. Having older players playing on turf probably doesn't help, either.
finch - Monday, July 21 2014 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#290132) #
What's frustrating is that the Jays missed their window of trading relievers during the offseason when their value was the highest. Guys like Delabar and Santos could have and should have been traded to fill in holes (3B) and another arm. When you see what the return was for Huston Street, it sure compounds a Jays' fan frustrations. But like was said earlier, it is one game. They need to win 4 of the next 6. It's a long season, onto the next one!
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#290135) #
Shi Davidi reports that Ryan Goins and Aaron Sanchez are being called up today. I don't see what is the point of this move. I don't know how much more Goins offers than Kawasaki and I do think the Jays risk messing up Sanchez with the aggressive promotions.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#290137) #
Assuming they keep Kawasaki, I like the moves.  Goins will hopefully be regularly used at shortstop with Reyes DHing and Bautista back in the outfield.  It will result in defensive improvement; Gose in right-field cannot put his range to optimum use and makes an unfortunate number of mental errors (like last night's throw to the wrong base after a fumble which allowed Bogaerts to score from first on Bradley's short double).  As for Sanchez, the move allows them to start him in a low leverage role for a few innings and then move him up the ladder as the season wears on and performance warrants. 


finch - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#290138) #
I wonder how much major league umping will help Sanchez. He's got great stuff; I wonder if the minor league umping isn't used to seeing "stuff" that good. Also, is it the best move to call him up to face Boston? A team that is known for great plate discipline? Hopefully Gibby sets up his match ups and gets his confidence going.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#290139) #
finch, I think you're overestimating the value of Delabar and Cecil. Street has both a proven track record of success, and a proven record as a closer, neither of which Cecil or Delabar have. Delabar in particular seems like a guy who wouldn't have much value - the guy was literally out of baseball due to ineffectiveness/injury and had tailed off in the second half. I wouldn't be happy if the Jays had traded... I don't know, the equivalent of Kolten Wong or something for Delabar.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#290140) #
Tolleson is apparently heading off for a 3-day paternity leave, making Goins a short-term replacement.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#290141) #
Brett Cecil was an All-Star last year; Sergio Santos was ready to pitch as of August 1.  Many of us were perplexed that the club did not trade a reliever at the deadline. Some of us felt that it was a continuation of Anthopoulos' long-term fascination with relievers (and watching Napoli hit last night did nothing but help us revisit it). 

finch - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#290143) #
Paul D, I agree that they didn't have the greatest value, at least Delabar, but Cecil did, especially both after being named all-stars. A team out of contention should be looking to improve its roster for next season. I think AA should have made a trade at the deadline last season. Cecil should have netted someone along the lines of Wong, even in the off season. Santos had value after his season last year too. He put up some great numbers.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#290144) #
Sanchez will be interesting to see. Is his stuff so nasty that minor league umps have trouble telling balls from strikes? Is he one of those guys who can do better in the majors than the minors (ala Juan Guzman back in 1991)?  Guess we are about to find out.

The staff is showing more and more home grown talent... Hutch, Stroman, Janssen, Cecil, McGowan, Loup, and now Sanchez.  7 of the pitching staff are via the draft.  A good thing. 

For hitters only Goins came via draft or international free agency.  Not so good.  FYI: this is active roster only - Lind, Pillar, Jenkins all would count too if on roster right now.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#290145) #
Tolleson is apparently heading off for a 3-day paternity leave, making Goins a short-term replacement.

Perfect time to DH Reyes and to start Goins at shortstop tonight, with Happ facing Peavy.  That way you let Reyes rest his legs on the turf at least one of the four games.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#290146) #
Don't disagree about trading Delabar and/or Cecil while they were hot, but Santos? The guy who pitched a total of 30 innings combined in 2012/2013?

Actually, the player who really should have been traded at last years deadline was Rajai; have no idea why AA held on to him.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#290147) #
It seems like the Street deal raised everyone's expectations of what relievers are worth. But last summer, Scott Downs - reliever with long track record having a very good year - only brought back Cory Rasmus, who's basically just another decent reliever.

I'm not sure Cecil or Delabar, having their first good seasons, or Santos, who's barely healthy, would have brought back much.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#290148) #
FYI: when Sanchez does take the mound he will be the 23rd pitcher (22nd real one as Tolleson was used once) used this year.  31 were used last year, 34 the year before (including Jeff Mathis twice), 30 the year before (including Mike McCoy), and 24 in 2010.

Funny - the Jays went a very, very long time without using a hitter as a pitcher and now 3 in the past 4 years have been used.  Under AA it seems 30+ pitchers a year are needed.  11 last year had under 11 IP (10 under 10 IP plus Jeffress at 10 1/3) while 20 guys had 25+ IP. 

Right now 13 guys have 20+ IP, Santos & Jenkins both are in the 19's.  Only 5 guys are sub 10 IP, with Rasmussen the only one likely to crack 10 IP.  The staff has a 100 ERA+ vs last years 98, and a 91 in 2012.  One wonders where the Jays would be without Stroman who easily could've been mixed into a trade last winter. 
finch - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#290149) #
hypobole, I think Santos had a good track record. He was outstanding in 2010, had 30 saves in 2011, hurt in 2012 and was outstanding in 2013 albeit in 25 innings. AND he's signed for team friendly options (for a closer) going forward. That, IMO, has value.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#290150) #
I remember having a discussion with seasoned Bauxites last summer about the very topic of trading a reliever (which all of us thought was a good idea).  It was entirely unclear to us which reliever would have the highest trade value. 
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#290151) #
[Santos] was outstanding in 2013 albeit in 25 innings

Except Santos didn't really start pitching until August 1, after the trade deadline - he pitched in 5 games in April, then hit the DL. He managed 11 very good innings in August, but I'm not sure that was enough for anyone to commit to picking up his $3.75 million in 2014, plus the $750K to decline his 2015 option.
finch - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#290152) #
Sorry, I earlier suggested trading Santos in the off season. I think last year he re-established himself as being healthy. He definitely had value. It was rumored that he was traded to the Rangers but the player coming back failed a physical. MLBTR suggested it was Kinsler. Last off season he was traded for Brett Anderson until he too failed his physical. There was value there.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#290153) #
Not sure if its an actual rumour or just Bowden's speculation but he says Nolin + Lugo for Headley would work.

Regardless of whether that's true or not, would you do the deal?

I'd say yes. I don't think either of these kids is in our top-10 anymore, and there's a train of guys coming up behind them too.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#290154) #
It was rumored that he was traded to the Rangers but the player coming back failed a physical. MLBTR suggested it was Kinsler. Last off season he was traded for Brett Anderson until he too failed his physical.

I'm not sure that's an endorsement of Santos' value. Kinsler's a decent player who had nearly $70 million remaining on his contract, and Anderson hasn't been healthy since 2010 and is making $8 million this year. (Though perhaps he could have avoided injury in Toronto, since he broke his finger swinging a bat.)

Both of those potential trades look like teams trying to swap their problems, as opposed to actually adding value.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#290155) #
When Dickey was on the block, Bowden thought that Gose and Arencibia would be a fair return, but it took Syndergaard, d'Arnaud and Becerra to land RA.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#290156) #
I wouldn't do it.  I don't want an everyday third baseman because that's where Lawrie ought to be.  Headley's offensive improvement in July is a mirage.  He has an 0/16 W/K in July but has put up a decent slash line courtesy of a .417 BABIP.  What you are likely to get is his seasonal line (i.e. an 88 wRC+ or slightly better than that).  I might trade him for Nolin straight up; you're not getting very much but in Nolin, you are probably not giving up very much in light of his various health issues.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#290157) #
Esmil Rogers on the way up tonight too.

And even I'll admit he's earned another shot with a 3.14era and 3.46fip in near 50ip...most of those ip as an SP.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#290158) #
So the likely corresponding moves IMO would be:
Tolleson to paternity leave
Mills DFA
Rasmussen back to Buffalo.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#290159) #
That was the Phillies not the White Sox though wasn't it?
uglyone - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#290160) #
He might be toast as a hitter.....but I'm not sure you can dismiss Headley's july due to BABIP, when in the first 3 months he posted babips of .229, .250, and .250.

His career line is 113wrc+, last year 113. Zips projects 108 rest of season, Steamer projects 111 rest of season. And that's playig in one of the toughest hitting environments in mlb. So as of yet the odds are on him being a good hitter still. And his defense is excellent.

I'd hesitate if it cost more than that return, but a couple of guys in the 10-20 range on the prospect list to me is a good risk.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#290161) #
Hutchison could be joining Santos on the Buffalo express. He too needs a reset.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#290162) #
He's never been this bad before though.

2012 was likely an outlier in the positive direction, but 2014 is likely an outlier in the negative direction. I'd expect production similar to 2009-11 and 2013 rather than the brutal performance he's had this year. Power would go up as well just due to the ballpark change.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#290163) #
we could also try to get them to add in Denorfia to the deal.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#290164) #
Haven't heard much about Nick Franklin lately. One recent rumour has the A's interested in trading for him. Might the Jays be in on him?

I wonder if AA is hoping to get a couple of good relief outings from Sanchez in an eleventh-hour attempt to boost his trade value. I don't really see how his performance this year (5.1 BB and 7.5 K per 9 IP) warrants a promotion on the merits.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#290165) #
I don't know.  Hutchison was throwing on 8 days rest.  His fastball was fine, but he could not throw a breaking ball for a strike and he was telegraphing his change some.  Also, Hutchison did not get much help from his defence last night.  This isn't an excuse- he wasn't pitching well, but the final line did not have to end up as ugly as it did.

All the machinations to keep Dickey on regular rest had an effect on the other pitcher's routines.  Personally I would let Hutchison pitch through it. 

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#290166) #
It's fashionable right now to argue that the Jays should be focusing on acquiring position players, but I predict that by season's end, people will be wishing the team had added at least one more good starting pitcher this year. Ditto next year.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#290167) #
Sanchez called up.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#290168) #
In terms of adding a starter - at some point this year, Morrow comes back. I wouldn't be counting on him, but I can understand why the front office might be reluctant to add a pitcher. They might assume that Morrow could take some starts from Stroman and Hutchison down the stretch.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#290169) #
Sorry missed the question mark. In other words wtf?
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#290173) #
Headley looks to be off to the Yankees for two 'not top' minor leaguers which you would assume the Jays could do. Have to wonder if the payroll issues came into play.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#290174) #
Yankees send Yangervis Solarte and prospect DePaula
uglyone - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#290175) #
Headley to the yanks.

for Solarte and DePaula.

which is pretty much "for free".
uglyone - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#290176) #
DePaula is a 23yr old with a 4.15era in A+.

Solarte is a 27yr old with a career .749ops in AAA, who somehow fluked out a league average line in a half season this year in the bigs.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#290179) #
Good news...don't want Headley.

Would certainly be inquiring about Tommy Milone though I am sure Beane has had many similar calls today.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#290181) #
Last night was embarrassing. While Brad Mills could be expected to be that bad, Drew Hutchison has much better stuff. Has he reached a wall? He usually limits his bad innings, but last night he looked, gun-shy or snake-bit, anything but normal. For me, one more bad start and he's in AAA. Brad Mills, all I know is this A.A's decision, as stupid as I think it is.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#290183) #
Joe Siddall said on tv at noon that Hutch is tipping his pitches......
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#290184) #
Eric Kratz is the first domino to fall. Two (pitchers?) to go.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#290185) #
only one pitcher gone. Mills dfa'd. Tolleson on paternity leave.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#290186) #
Brad Mills to be DFA'd. I am not a Mills fan but why claim him, DFA Deck McGuire, let him sit over the all-star break so he hasn't pitched in over 2 weeks, give him one appearance and then decide he is a bum? What part of that suggests the Jays know what they are doing?
John Northey - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#290187) #
Suggests that Mills was a warm body to eat a few innings if needed - was needed, flopped, decided 'screw it'.  McGuire was a flop in the end, Sanchez they might feel is ready now but might have been hedging their bets a bit earlier.  I'm sure some stuff behind the scenes was going on too thus Mills was more an insurance policy than anything else and the Jays just felt he wasn't needed anymore. 

The long man slot (#7 or 8 depending on the week) is fairly fungable.  Mills, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Rogers, Redmond, ... many guys can fill that slot.  The problem is the Jays have lately had 3 of them on the staff.  Janssen/McGowan/Loup/Cecil make for a good final 4 but the other 3 slots have been rotating a lot this year.  Stroman and Happ each were in those final 3 for awhile, Delabar was to be a 'top 4' but fell, Santos the same, Wagner was a 'could be' but wasn't.  Jeffress a live arm that flopped.  And so on.

Lets hope Sanchez has a good stretch and earns a few starts in September.  Mills never was in the plans for more than a few weeks so I wouldn't read anything into him being up and dumped.
eudaimon - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#290188) #
Agreed Gerry, though it would make more sense if a trade is eventually made involving a worthy player joining the 40-man. In that case the spot and the eventual  DFA of McGuire would be required regardless.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#290189) #
From Merkin Valdez to Sean Nolin, they've known exactly what they're doing for five years.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#290190) #
I don't know if the Jays were interested in Chase Headley but it is possibly another non-transaction supporting the Jays payroll limitations. There are stories on the web today, and likely in your newspaper tomorrow, about Rogers trimming costs. Rogers are cutting several hundred jobs, 15% of executives, and consolidating their magazines and editors. There are also reports of layoffs in the radio division.

Rogers revenue is expected to be flat this quarter, profits down and their stock price is down 14% this year to date. The new CEO is rolling out his new plan for the organization. Optically it is not a good time to be expanding the Blue Jays budget and it doesn't seem like it will happen.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#290191) #
Not to mention sending mostly reliable long-man Jenkins down to AAA, where he can't be recalled for a week & a half unless someone else gets hurt.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#290192) #
I sure hope that money wasn't the issue with Headley.  What are we talking about, roughly 3.5 million?  If you can't afford to add that at the deadline, it means that either the GM made a serious misjudgment in the off-season with salary commitments or ownership has pulled the rug out from beneath him.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#290193) #
Mastroianni and Kratz sent down.  Mills DFAed.  Goins will not necessarily be gone (Goins, goins, gone!) when Tolleson returns from paternity leave.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#290194) #
Remember that Guy Laurence only became the CEO in January....so it is quite possible...even likely...that at that time there was a change in attitude towards spending.....so Alex being somewhat blind sided is also likely at that time. That's why he said one thing in November and had changed his tune by spring.

With the money spent on the tv hockey deal along with the issues Gerry has reported, I would suspect that the Jays budget is frozen this year and next. By then, revenue should be regular on the hockey deal and there may be a clearer view on company profitability.......

We should be able to build a competitive team with 130 mil anyway. Salary distribution needs to be changed and likely will be addressed in the off season. This is a good time to trade Buerhle (off season), release Morrow, Rasmus and possibly trade Lind. I would hope Melky and Casey can be retained but their tenure is probably on the table as well.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#290195) #
If that is the approach of Rogers, fans should boycott them.  It would be tolerable if Rogers said  "you can add $3.5 million in payroll this year, but you'll have to cut that money next year"  That is one thing.  But saying to the GM, salary is absolutely frozen when the approach all the way along has been that the GM could take on extra salary if the team is competitive.  That's a whole other story.

Of course, no one will say what the approach exactly is.  We can draw inferences that Rogers is, at best, a mediocre owner, but more than that, we will be left to guess. 

christaylor - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#290196) #
There are jumps off the bandwagon and then there's getting off the ride because walking is more fun. At this point, I'd like to go for a walk.

Sad thing is, I think if the team hangs around until EE and Lawrie are back, chances are they're going to make it close. AA made a nice move with Reimold as triage but sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes it rains. I hope he was in on Chase Headley, if only that it means he's willing/able to find patches.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#290197) #
Kawasaki at third base in the lineup today, so that Francisco can play first base while Dan Johnson rests and Colby Rasmus DHs with Gose in CF.  Reyes is still at shortstop.  It's certainly not what I would do.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#290198) #
Weird. If you're going to have Kawasaki & Goins in the lineup, I don't know why you wouldn't put Goins at third - he's got a much stronger arm.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#290199) #
there should be a 4th addition unless Tolleson leave not in effect yet?
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#290200) #
I wondered why Muni had been practising with a lacrosse stick  the last few days...
Thomas - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#290201) #

"I think the deck chair goes much better over here."

"No, no, no, it looks better on the starboard side of the ship..."

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#290202) #
Funny first name for a Hillenbrand, Thomas!
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#290203) #
Darin Mastroianni is not on the lineup sheet.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#290204) #
July 22 is a big day for Blue Jay birthdays- the day is shared by Dave Stieb, Heathcliff Johnson and Al LaMacchia.  Other notables born on this day include Jack Glasscock, a great 19th century shortstop, Jesse Haines, a Hall of Fame pitcher who was roughly as good as Jack Morris, Sparky Lyle and Mike Sweeney. 
China fan - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#290205) #
"....Many of us were perplexed that the club did not trade a reliever at the deadline. Some of us felt that it was a continuation of Anthopoulos' long-term fascination with relievers...."

Given that the Jays lost a bunch of games this year because of bullpen collapses, and given that the Jays are still searching for a proper bullpen lineup even now, I would argue that Anthopoulos correctly recognizes the high value of a strong bullpen.  A year ago, we assumed Delabar and Santos would be key pillars of the bullpen for years to come, and we assumed that the Jays had a reliever surplus.  Today that assumption is clearly wrong.  Delabar is in the minors, Santos is DFA'd, and several other bullpen stalwarts (Cecil, Loup, Rogers) have performed worse than expected.  (Take a look at Cecil's numbers for 2014 vs his numbers in 2013.)  So there wasn't any real surplus in 2013, if you were trying to contend in 2014.  Sure, you can occasionally trade a good reliever (or two) if you're going to get a great return (like the Colby Rasmus trade) but that's a rare circumstance.  Unless the trade return is very good, you shouldn't get rid of relievers lightly.  Bullpen depth is important -- as 2014 has clearly shown.  Recognizing this fact is not some weird "fascination", it's just good strategy.
China fan - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#290206) #
Ryan Goins is an interesting case.  Overall, his 2014 season has been mediocre.  That's probably the logical scenario for the future too.  But it's possible to make a more optimistic interpretation, if you think the Jays hitting coaches (in both Toronto and Buffalo) have been working hard to get Goins to make the adjustments that could make him a stronger hitter.  In this scenario, Goins might be finally beginning to make those adjustments and to learn how to hit adequately at last.  His performance over the past 31 games in Buffalo might support that theory (if we'd like to be optimistic).  According to a Buffalo press release: Goins has 15 multi-hit performances in his last 31 games with Buffalo.  His 38 total hits since June 20 are the 6th-most among all Triple-A hitters. His hitting numbers have improved sharply in those 31 games.  It might be worthwhile to see if he has finally turned a corner.  With the Lawrie injury and with Francisco's woes, now is the time to find out if Goins might be figuring it out a little.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#290207) #
Most relievers regress after a good year. I would have traded Cecil and/or Delabar, and used cash to sign a core of replacements. You should end up with a similar bullpen plus the return for the trades minus some cash (maybe). The payroll freeze might have made this approach difficult but it could have been tried.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#290208) #
When the bullpen performs well, Gibbons is a genius.  When it performs badly, you obviously need more relievers. 

It's one way to look at things.  I personally prefer to take a longer view of it.  Janssen is a very good reliever.  Cecil, Loup and McGowan are pretty good.  Redmond is perfectly acceptable for a long reliever.  You've got any number of pitchers who rightfully can occupy the 6th, 7th and 8th slots in the pen, from time to time (including Stroman and Sanchez and Happ and Rogers and Jenkins and Wagner and Delabar and Morrow). 

What it comes to is one's view of the importance of the bullpen.  If you see pitching as about 35-40% of the game (as I do), and the bullpen at about 30-35% of that, it amounts to roughly 12% for 6-8 players on your roster.  You want 3 who can handle the high leverage situations competently, and for the rest you want just above replacement level talent at low cost. 

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#290209) #
with Francisco's woes

In July, Francisco is hitting .235/.289/.471.  He's playing less than stellar defence, but still good enough to have some utility.  There is no reason to believe that Goins will serve any significant use replacing Francisco until Lawrie gets back.  Reyes, on the other hand, is another story.  He's been hitting well in the last week, but overall has been playing very poorly (for him) for a long time.  Let him DH.
China fan - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#290210) #
"....There is no reason to believe that Goins will serve any significant use replacing Francisco until Lawrie gets back...."

He's not replacing Francisco -- he's allowing Francisco to be shifted to 1B or DH, where there are currently vacancies, and where Francisco's defensive weaknesses can be hidden.
China fan - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#290211) #
"...Most relievers regress after a good year...."

Sure, but which ones?  Delabar regressed, but Jansen did not.  Cecil regressed, but McGowan did not.   It's not entirely predictable.  Obviously the Jays should trade players at the peak of their value, and they should acquire the under-valued players who will later rise to their peak.  But it's easier said than done.  If it was so easy to predict the peaks and valleys of the value cycle, we'd all be stock-market billionaires.  The Jays did well to acquire some under-valued players (Bautista, Encarnacion etc) but it's not easy to know which players will gain value and which ones will lose value.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#290212) #
Also, how the team uses its relievers undoubtedly plays a role in their effectiveness and health. Last year Delabar and Cecil were terrific for a significant part of the season, and Gibbons used them with great frequency. Eventually they got hurt and (arguably) they haven't been the same since. Did the way in which they were used last year and this year contribute to their "regression"? Maybe. Showalter talked about this phenomenon in spring training.

Having good starting pitchers who can pitch effectively deep into games is probably also conducive to keeping a bullpen healthy and productive. Who knows how the early weeks of this season, when the SPs were pitching poorly, affected the Jays' bullpen?

I've been making a similar argument for a while now about the team's position players. The 2014 Jays were always highly dependent on the health of its regulars (most of whom are older and injury-prone, and all of whom play on concrete at home), but the lack of depth led the team to play those players pretty much every day with few opportunities for rest. Most of them have gone down with injuries or have seen their production fall off as the season has gone on.
Eephus - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#290213) #
On an (extremely) unrelated subject, has anybody else noticed how the 5th inning cleanup crew aren't quite as fast as they used to be?
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#290214) #
Great job by Happ tonight. He's certainly holding his own as the Jays' fifth starter.
grjas - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#290215) #
"...Most relievers regress after a good year...."

Seems to be one of those truisms with little substantive proof. Why should a reliever regress versus a SP or position player? There are many relievers over the years with a high degree of consistency. If a reliever regresses, he's likely been overworked, figured out, had a small sample size, or was marginal to begin with.

I also thought AA should trade a reliever in the offseason because of what appeared at the time to be a surplus. But perhaps he tried and other clubs saw through their quality.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#290216) #
Great job by Happ tonight.

Could be starting another one of his runs. With G being good and B being bad, his 14 starts have been: GBGBGBGBGBGB, BG.

If the Jays hang on tonight, they'll be 7-0 in the G starts and 2-5 in the B starts.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#290217) #
If Cabrera keeps this up, it will be interesting to see whether he receives a QO. My guess is that he won't, as he's probably closer to a $10-12M player than a $15M one. But it could happen. He's having an outstanding year.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#290218) #
I heard in a Bob McCowan segment on the Fan in October, Keith Pelley said, when asked about the new CEO. The budget for the entire baseball side is covered and won't change. The money is always set aside first. Or words similar, I can't remember the details.

What I do know is the new CEO wouldn't be dealing with the team very soon, as its too small an item this coming year.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#290219) #
I was wrong about Kawasaki.  Evidently, he must have done some serious weight work in the off-season.  He's hitting the ball harder and now throwing better too.  I ought to have known better about him.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#290220) #
Happ has been almost as good as Hutchison this year. Their ERAs are virtually identical, with Happ's component stats a notch below those of Drew. Considering the awful back-end starters the Jays used last year, Happ has been an asset for the Jays in 2014.
grjas - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#290222) #
Why is Janssen - who is rebuilding his strength after food poisoning- pitching in a 7-1 game?
Chuck - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#290223) #
If Cabrera keeps this up, it will be interesting to see whether he receives a QO. My guess is that he won't, as he's probably closer to a $10-12M

My guess is that he will receive a QO unless he craters between now and the end of the year.

His current 2.5 WAR pace is worth about 13.5MM if we use 5.4MM as the marginal cost of a win.
* His current value is not far off the cost of a QO.
* A QO brings with it just a one year commitment.
* His weakness is defense and despite the plethora of modern day metrics, defense still gets undervalued.
* There is precious little OF depth in the organization.
* The team may have an issue attracting players.

Now, whether or not he should get a QO is another matter. But I think he will.

PeterG - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#290225) #
I too think Cabrera will get a QO  It's also possible he could be signed to a longer deal before that is necessary.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#290226) #
I love what Melky has done this year, but I'm not sure the Jays will want to devote over 10% of their 2015 payroll to him, especially as he edges further past his prime and his defense continues to trend downward.

It might depend on whether the Jays are going to have a $120M payroll next year or a $140M one, and what the organization's overall direction is. It will no doubt also depend on the state of the market. If the potential demand for Melky looks to be high, a QO would make sense, as Cabrera would be more inclined to reject it and test the market. MLBTR recently ranked Cabrera #9 on its free agent power rankings list. On the other hand, given what happened to Drew and Morales last off-season, players might be a bit slower to reject a QO this time around.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#290227) #
Another Happ note: everyone who thought the Happ trade was an abomination should check out the 2014 stats of the players the Jays gave up to acquire him. While Happ has been just OK for the Jays (basically a 90 ERA+ starting pitcher), the players the Jays gave up really haven't done much. In retrospect, it looks like a defensible trade of surplus lower-tier prospects for a useful #5/6 AL starting pitcher.
scottt - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#290228) #
Sure, but which ones?  Delabar regressed, but Jansen did not.  Cecil regressed, but McGowan did not.   It's not entirely predictable.

It's not a matter of predicting. It's just hedging. You sell high on one of them to bolster some other part. The bullpen should have several guys with options alternating in the last spots. The alternative was having too many guys out of options and that contributed to a poor start in April.
scottt - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#290229) #
I heard in a Bob McCowan segment on the Fan in October, Keith Pelley said, when asked about the new CEO. The budget for the entire baseball side is covered and won't change. The money is always set aside first.

Well, obviously you can't just layoff baseball players, you can only release them or trade them. You still have to pay a player's salary if you release them at this time in the year. That only leave trades and you can't really trade the guys that are underperforming.
scottt - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#290230) #
He's not replacing Francisco -- he's allowing Francisco to be shifted to 1B or DH, where there are currently vacancies, and where Francisco's defensive weaknesses can be hidden.

I prefer Johnson at 1B and Francisco at DH. No matter how I squint I can't see Goins affecting who's at 1B/DH.
scottt - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#290231) #
Seems to be one of those truisms with little substantive proof. Why should a reliever regress versus a SP or position player?

Logical answer, when a guy shows a marked improvement year over year, that's often not sustainable.
Statistical answer, if you do very well, like win a game 14-1, you're more likely to do worse than better the next time around.

The difference between a reliever and a position player is that the reliever's work is a smaller sample and hence prone to more variations even compared to a starting pitcher.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 22 2014 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#290232) #
Good question greenfrog...
To Jays...
Happ: 4.55 ERA this year 4.56 last, 4.69 his partial year ... geez, talk about consistent eh?
Lyon: 2.88 ERA in 25 IP then gone - 72 ERA+ last year and in LAA's AAA farm this year with just 4.6 K/9
Carpenter: 2 2/3 IP here, traded with Farrell to get Aviles who was traded with Gomes to get Rogers - lots of H/9 this year for Carp but a 3.00 FIP...would've been useful and I won't get into Gomes again.

To Houston... still in minors...
Joseph Musgrove : 21 in short season A (NYPL) 3.53 ERA  over 35 2/3 IP 0.5 HR/9 1.5 BB/9 8.1 K/9 all nice figures but needs to move up a bit quicker after 3 years of rookie ball. With his high K/9 and low BB/9 no idea why he hasn't seen full season ball yet.
Carlos Perez : 23 year old catcher in AAA 251/314/377 in the PCL so not too impressive but is young enough to improve
David Rollins : 24 in AA 3.45 ERA over 60 IP 0.8 HR/9 2.4 BB/9 8.7 K/9 - still a prospect
Asher Wojciechowski : 25 now, in AAA 7.14 ERA in 7 starts 3.4 BB/9 vs 6.5 K/9 after spending most of the year on the DL
Kevin Comer : 21 now in A ball, 4.50 ERA in 44 IP just 5.7 K/9 so I don't see much in his future.
in majors...
Francisco Cordero: 5 IP 11 ER for Houston and hasn't been seen since
Ben Francisco: 77 OPS+ for Houston, left as FA, helped Jays this year with his 13 OPS+ for the Yanks in 50 PA

Musgrove and Perez are the best potentials right now, Woj and Comer are dropping fast. Rollins could be a useful piece for them someday.  Overall though the Jays haven't lost anything there and at this point I'd not put much strength on the prospects as I doubt any would be close to the top 10 in the Jays current system, maybe Musgrove or Perez in the top 20 or so.
China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#290233) #
"....No matter how I squint I can't see Goins affecting who's at 1B/DH...."

Goins is a good defensive 2B who has been hitting well for the past month in Buffalo, and his return to the majors has allowed Kawasaki to shift to 3B.  This, in turn, made it easier for Francisco to be positioned at 1B instead of 3B.  Of course this isn't accounting for splits and platoons, and we'll definitely see Tolleson getting some more playing time at 2B and 3B soon, but tonight's lineup is still a lineup that we're likely to see again from time to time.  It's only a stopgap until the return of Lawrie, Lind and Encarnacion, but it's not a horrible option, as tonight's result suggested.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#290234) #
Gibbons probably wants Kawasaki at 3B because he sees it as a wash between Muni & Goins at 3B, whereas he considers Goins the far superior 2B.

Sign me up for Johnson at 1B, Goins at SS, and Reyes at DH as much as possible.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#290235) #
Gose now has a .340 OBP. Only 3 position players on the active roster have higher OBP's - Cabrera, Johnson and Bautista.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#290236) #
Speaking of Gose, it occurred to me that, with Bautista back in RF, this is the first time all year (I think) that Gose has remained on the roster when the regular outfield has been available. Might be that he's become too valuable to leave in AAA.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#290237) #
After signing Navarro, the Jays have not made a single signing or trade that wasn't a minor league deal or waiver claim. I think it is pretty clear that plans changed at some point between October and January as far as payroll or flexibility. Which is a shame because the Jays should have been the ones getting McCarthy and Headley for nothing, not the Yankees.

I would really like to know what happened this off-season within management and payroll. Someone tell Davidi that is a far more interesting topic than the miserable 2013 season.
grjas - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#290238) #
If AA is that cash strapped, he should consider trading Rasmus now to free up cash. Rasmus is certainly not worth trying to extend with Gose playing well enough. I know it's a risk if Bautista goes down again, but if they need the cash to make other deals, I would take the risk.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#290239) #
Might be that he's become too valuable to leave in AAA.

I think the biggest impediment to keeping Gose on the roster has been (a) the oft used 3-catcher scheme and (b) the need for a RH bat (Pillar, Mastroiani, whoever) to counter-balance all the LHB with platoon issues (though the 3-catcher scheme has often meant that Navarro could DH against LHP, if even ineffectively).

With Bautista and Rasmus not entirely health, Cabrera prone to pending fatigue (one would imagine) and no other outfielder showing any value, Gose would be appear to be a lock to stay on the roster for the immediate future.

PeterG - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#290240) #
BP has reports today on Norris, Pompey and Sanchez.  The author is much higher on Norris than he is on Pompey.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#290241) #
"After signing Navarro, the Jays have not made a single signing or trade that wasn't a minor league deal or waiver claim"

This is true of all but a couple of teams.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#290242) #
Gose is the only one of the extra OF that has given us any value this year. It also helps that jose has been injured, colby has been scuffling, and the dh spot is wide open.

This is probably a good time to get our OF some regular rest in the DH spot, actually. But once ee/lind/reimlold get healthy gose is going to be seeing a lot of pine.
China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#290243) #
"...But once ee/lind/reimlold get healthy Gose is going to be seeing a lot of pine...."

What drags Gose down is his awful SLG, barely higher than his BA.  He's had only 5 extra-base hits in 126 at-bats this year.  But his OBP is impressive.  He's been excellent at stretching out the ABs, getting a lot of pitches, working the pitcher for walks, and of course the occasional bunt for a hit.  Still, I'm not sure if his OBP will ever be high enough to compensate for his complete lack of power. Even a lead-off hitter like Reyes can still manage a SLG of .420.  Gose's SLG is a miserable .294.  But he's still not yet 24 years old, and he provides a lot of defensive value.  If he continues to improve his OBP while stealing bases and playing a strong CF, he's at least a useful 4th outfielder, if not better.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#290244) #
Gose now has a .340 OBP.

It was .600 after his first game and it's done a quite remarkable simulation of a ski slope ever since. He drew 7 walks in his first 9 games. His OBP is .302 over the two months since then.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#290245) #
But once ee/lind/reimlold get healthy gose is going to be seeing a lot of pine.

Once Reimold gets healthy, my Bre-X stock is sure to rebound.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#290246) #
uglyone -" This is true of all but a couple of teams."

Not for the entire off-season and four months into the season. That seems like a really long time to not do anything. There were bench players out there they could have signed, or relievers (since that is AA's favorite), and obviously trades made recently (McCarthy, Headley).

I'm not sure if the roster is frozen necessarily but I think Alex's hands may be tied as far as adding payroll. Which makes me question why he didn't dump some salary in the off-season in expectation of this (Santos, Esmil, etc). Surely someone who have taken those guys for nothing, or given the team a bench bat in return (I've been hoping for John Mayberry Jr. trade for months).
Chuck - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#290247) #
What drags Gose down is his awful SLG, barely higher than his BA.

His SLG is indeed dreadful. But as he is working on his game, I'd rather he focus on the walking, bunting and slashing groundballs in an attempt to focus on his OBP. If this aspect of his game truly develops (and there's no guarantee it will), then he can think about driving the ball to the gaps. For now, I'd rather not see a bunch of warning track outs because he is thinking extra bases.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#290248) #
The BP evaluation of Pompey is not consistent with what other evaluators said, or what is visible on video.  Once an evaluator marks him down for 60 speed, I turn off.  Billy Hamilton is 80.  Anthony Gose might be 75.  Pompey is 70.  Pompey is fast enough that bunts are a routinely effective weapon for him.  As for the rest of the evaluation, it's interesting but given that the evaluator has him down for 60 speed when I know that is wrong, I don't take it as seriously as other evaluations. There is a question about how well Pompey will hit at higher levels, and that question will be answered as time goes on. Given that he has hit .300 in the FSL at age 21, the odds are generically in his favour of being able to hit .260 or better in the major leagues.


uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#290249) #
"What drags Gose down is his awful SLG, barely higher than his BA. He's had only 5 extra-base hits in 126 at-bats this year. But his OBP is impressive. He's been excellent at stretching out the ABs, getting a lot of pitches, working the pitcher for walks, and of course the occasional bunt for a hit. Still, I'm not sure if his OBP will ever be high enough to compensate for his complete lack of power. Even a lead-off hitter like Reyes can still manage a SLG of .420. Gose's SLG is a miserable .294. But he's still not yet 24 years old, and he provides a lot of defensive value. If he continues to improve his OBP while stealing bases and playing a strong CF, he's at least a useful 4th outfielder, if not better."


Actually i don't have any problem with his current hitting line. If he could maintain that line with that kind of obp, then with his D he'd be a solidly valuable starting CF, much like bradley jr. Has been in boston this year.

I just can't see him maintaing that obp, though, based on his AAA track record. For all then talking head talk aboutvplayrrs being better in mlb than milb, that actually pretty much never happens in real life.


But if gose CAN keep up that kind of obp, then he can start in this league, no matter what his slg is, imo.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#290250) #
Incidentally, if you think Pompey's potential (upside) is to hold down a regular major league job, I've got some bones to pick.  You've got a player who at age 21 is able to hit .300 in the FSL due to amount of hard contact, bunting ability and speed.  He will take a walk.  He's got a polished defensive game in centerfield and steals bases with terrific efficiency.  His upside is a Gold-Glove winning centerfielder with the offensive ability to be a good leadoff hitter.  I have no idea whether he will achieve that (and frankly neither does the evaluator) but it's a lot better than being able to hold down a regular job.

Turning to Gose, I have no idea what you do with him.  He has obviously cut down his swing and is laying down more bunts (very successfully).  His K rate is down and his BABIP is .337 (which sounds high but is actually low for a player with his batted ball profile, speed and bunting success rate).  Part of it is Colby Rasmus; his defensive play in centerfield since the first month of the season has been very poor (it's not so much the metrics but rather the repeated watching of him).  I suspect the reason is lingering injury, but the upshot is that Gose is right now a little better overall out there.  That may or may not be true in a month. 

China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#290251) #
"....it's done a quite remarkable simulation of a ski slope ever since....  His OBP is .302 over the two months since then...."

Well, if we're slicing the sample size into smaller and smaller portions to make a point, Gose has bounced back to an OBP of .316 over his past 27 games, suggesting that the ski slope has a little bit of a ski jump at the end....

Also, he has a career minor-league OBP of .335 which suggests that his .340 OBP in the major leagues this season is not necessarily an implausible improvement.

In any event, my comment was based more on my subjective impression of his patience at the plate.  However, checking the numbers, I see that I might have slightly exaggerated this in my mind.  Gose is seeing an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearance this year, which is only a little above the MLB average of 3.83 pitches per plate appearance.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#290252) #
Sign me up for Johnson at 1B, Goins at SS, and Reyes at DH as much as possible.

Concur.  Kawasaki at second base and Francisco at third base works perfectly when you've got a right-hander vs. right-hander matchup.  Like today. 
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#290253) #
I don't find anything about the Pompey report to make it easily dismissed. Something to keep in mind is that it's based off 2 looks (3 games). Given the times to first the author saw, a 60 run makes perfect sense (with positive consideration given to his work on the basepaths). As for the rest of it, it seems like his looks were on the lower range of the scale, but nothing obscenely low... Maybe just a touch conservative relative to other looks or a couple of off days.
Hodgie - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#290254) #
The BP evaluation by Mellen isn't even consistent with the previous BP evaluation by Jeff Moore and is puzzling at best while bordering on dismissive.

"working to improve reading of pitchers.....throws lose some steam at the tail end"

If Pompey is able to go 35/39 in stolen base attempts without being able to read pitchers well he might never get thrown out again once this skill improves. I would also love to meet the OF who's throws are still accelerating at their destination.

As Mike noted, Pompey's upside is much more than a MLB regular. After noting that he was not seeing good results despite swinging the bat well in his first couple of weeks in New Hampshire, Pompey has seen his luck start to even out and is sporting a .995 OPS over his last 10 games to push his AA line back up to 100 wRC+. As it stands today, the only difference in his A+ and AA lines is a depressed BABIP with the Fisher Cats.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#290255) #
I think a diversity of opinions with scouting reports is a good thing - too many reports seem like group-think, gushing endlessly about the prospect as if to please fan bases - given the high rate of prospect failure, I'm happy to read differing views on a prospect - I've been a big booster of Pompey from day 1 , but it's good to read more conservative evaluation that keeps the hype in check - kudos to Mr. Mellen.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#290256) #
Disagree with the reyes at dh to get goins in the lineup plan.

Much rather bautista dh to get gose in the lineup.
1990Jays - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#290257) #
Even with the lower than expected BABIP in NH, Pompey's wRC+ is exactly at 100. Only 2 21 year olds have managed 100+ and those guys are barely over that mark. Its very reasaonble to expect Pompey's BA to rise 25-30 points, at the end of the season he could end up being one of the best hitters in AA in addition to being the best hitter in A+, the BP report is unreasonably conservative, the author provides little evidence for such a drastic conclusion.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#290258) #
Gose is not a great defensive right-fielder.  His range isn't terrific, and he makes a large number of mental and physical errors.  He has been a better player than Rasmus this year, and what you do with that situation makes for a difficult decision.  Playing Rasmus in center field and Gose in right field doesn't really address the issue in a helpful way for the club this year.  Probably the best thing (aside from one of them being traded) is if Gose is used as a 4th outfielder and gives each of them regular time off.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#290259) #
Well his range IS terrific, but yes he's made some mistakes out there. I'll take gose' rf defense ahead of either kawasaki's or goins' 3b defense, though.

And gose is actually showing some value at the plate, unlike goins.

Gose has been the top WAR-rate player on the jays this year, better than anyone, and he hasn't started to slow down at all yet.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#290260) #
I subscribe to Baseball Prospectus and I like their work but you have to take their opinions as semi-informed. Professional scouts sit on a team for five days, partly to see all the pitchers, but also to see the fielders and hitters in a variety of situations. I was in Lansing for two games at the weekend and I saw DJ Davis catch one ball.

Most BP opinions are based on one or two games, less than a pro scout. Plus most of their guys doing this are young. They write in a way that is very informative and detailed but that doesn't mean their opinions are. Plus they have only been doing this for just over a year now so we have very little data to know if they are any good yet.

Pro scouts aren't perfect and they have a lot more experience and see a lot more of the players than the BP guys do. Don't get sold on their opinions.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#290261) #
His range is terrific in centerfield.  In right-field, he takes such poor routes to the ball that his above-average range is essentially offset by the number of errors he makes.  He is no better out there defensively than Bautista.  Whereas, Goins is a far better defensive shortstop than Reyes at this point (plus Reyes desperately needs time off the hard RC surface- Bautista has had a lot of time off). 

Chuck - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#290262) #
I think Gose's value at this point is as a standard 4th outfielder, allowing Bautista and Cabrera to rest while DHing. And he should keep batting 9th and being told that his job on offense is to get on base.

I agree that to maximize his value is to play him in center field, both because he seems more comfortable there and because you want to leverage his skills at the most demanding position he can handle.

Goins being up confuses me since he essentially bumps Johnson from the starting lineup. His defense may be terrific but it can't carry a .150 average.

Ultimately, we're spending lots of time and energy around the edges - as we are wont - debating how marginal gains can be had that ultimately may not add up to a whole lot this way or that. This team's fate rests in the big things, the core players playing well.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#290263) #
So how is Gose's fielding this year?  Fielding stats are more variable than hitting ones so take it all with a big grain of salt...
RF - UZR/150 (runs saves/allowed over 150 games)
Gose: -8.2 (71 innings)
Bautista: -0.1 (627 innings)
No one else has 50+ innings there.  Of note (all under 30 innings)...
Pillar: +111.9 (21 innings)
Mastroianni: +75.4 (19 innings)
Reimold: +12.9 (28 innings)

CF - UZR/150
Rasmus: -19.2 (481 innings)
Gose: +35.3 (266 innings)
Pillar: +25.5 (58 innings)
Bautista: -56.2 (42 innings)
Mastroianni: +18.2 (35 innings)

LF - only Melky has over 21 innings there (!)
Melky: -10.1
Pillar: -15.3 (21 innings)
Encarnacion: -91.2 (15 innings and it looked that bad)
Mastroianni: -5.4 (11 innings)
Gose: +290.9 (9 2/3 innings, made all 3 plays in zone plus 2 outside of it)


Just 5 guys have 100+ innings in the outfield (just 5 over 66 innings actually)
Cabrera: -12.7
Bautista: -4.7
Rasmus: -19.2
Gose: +35.6
Pillar: +20.2
Mastroianni: +35.6 (the guy at 65 innings)

171 players have 100+ innings in the outfield this year.  5 are over 40 for UZR/150, just 23 have 20+ and 2 are Blue Jays.  In CF Gose is #3 among those with 100+ Innings (just 4 over 30).
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#290264) #
Sorry I don't see how Goins at shortstop necessarily bumps Johnson at first base, Chuck. Navarro catches, Johnson at first, Kawasaki at second, Goins at short, Francisco at third, Cabrera in left, Rasmus in centerfield, Bautista in right-field, with Gose at your 4th outfielder and Reyes DHing when you use this lineup (like say, tonight).

I don't think that Reyes has had a day off or DHed since returned to the lineup after the hamstring injury 3 months ago.  The purpose of the move is to give Reyes a bit of rest while not losing much (you don't really have a great option at DH anyway against a RHP with Encarnacion and Lind out and this way you gain defensively).  You hold your own hopefully while gaining in the long run as Reyes is hopefully rejuvenated. 

Gerry - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#290265) #
Sergio Santos has cleared waivers and is headed for Buffalo.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#290266) #
Tonight we get to see this bottpm 6 slots in our lineup:

Navarro
Rasmus
Kawasaki
Thole
Goins
Gose


Sigh.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#290268) #
The ultra defense lineup behind...dickey?

Maybe the D will keep the HRs in the park?
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#290269) #
I guess Navarro is hot, and he's 4-8 against Buchholz in his career, so Gibbons has him in there as the DH.  Plus tomorrow is a night game and Thursday is a day game, so he'll get a day off one of those two.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#290270) #
Wait.  It's Wednesday.  Cripes.  You've got to give Navarro a day off tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  Why not tonight?  Then you play Bautista in right-field, Johnson at first base, Gose (or Rasmus) in centerfield, and get Francisco's bat in the lineup at third base. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#290271) #
Darwin Barney was DFA'ed by the Cubs.  He is owed about $1 million for 2014.  He would be a useful platoon middle infielder.  If you are not going to use Goins at shortstop, you could platoon Kawasaki/Barney at second base and Francisco/Tolleson at third base and probably get better production. 
Chuck - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#290272) #
Sorry I don't see how Goins at shortstop necessarily bumps Johnson at first base, Chuck.

I meant according to last night's usage (Kawasaki to 3B, Francisco to 1B, Johnson to bench), not per your recommendation to get Reyes time at DH. I do agree that if Goins is going to be here at all, maybe use that time to get Reyes some rest. With Lind and EE shelved, now is the time to cycle Reyes, Cabrera and Bautista through DH to get them rest.

China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#290274) #
Bartolo Colon just lost his bid for a perfect game, allowing a single by Robinson Cano with 2 outs in the 7th inning.

Colon's excellent game also has another significance:  If the Mets hold on, the Jays will be only 1 game out of the final wild-card spot. They are still playing serious baseball with serious chances in late July, which is a nice change.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#290276) #
A wild card berth is nothing to sneeze at, but really, the Jays should be aiming higher. In early June, they had a six-game lead in the division and they're now four games back (a loss of ten full games in the divisional standings over the course of a month and a half).

So it seems a bit pollyannaish to be describing them as playing "serious baseball" and celebrating the fact that, along with a large number of other teams, they're within striking distance of a wild card spot. Below LAA and Seattle, there are seven teams within six games of a WC spot and some of them (TB, Cleveland, NYY, Boston) have been playing better baseball than the Jays have of late.
scottt - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#290277) #
A second wild card spot is a single away game against a team who will have the opportunity to shuffle their rotation to start their ace.

That's like a bleacher seat behind a pillar to your favorite concert.

China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#290278) #
"....So it seems a bit pollyannaish to be describing them as playing 'serious baseball'...."

Usually the Jays are far behind the wild-card spot by the end of June.  This year they're still in contention in late July.  But some people prefer the doom and gloom.  Time to trade away the veterans, tear apart the team and rebuild for a possible run in the 2017 season!
China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#290279) #
"....there are seven teams within six games of a WC spot..."

If the Jays were 6 games out of a WC spot at this stage of the season, I would be a lot less interested in watching their games.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#290280) #
They should be aiming higher, yes..but the Jays in the play in game would be their most watched game in 20 years.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#290281) #
No need to be negative.

The only teams with better records than us are the current playoff teams.

We and the yanks are the best of the noh playoff teams at the moment.

So unless you think the playoffs have been decided, and no non playoff teams will make it, then yes we're playing serious baseball.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#290282) #
On the other hand...
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#290283) #
Wow that's an encouraging response. 3-0 in the first woulda bern a death knell last week. Maybe thr bats are legit coming out of their funk. Helps that reyes/melk are starting to get hot again.

Key key 2out ribbie from thole after some squandering at bats from the prior three guys.

Please wake up now dickey.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#290284) #
The Jays are still in a decent position to compete for a playoff spot (AL East title) or a wild card spot (50-50 chance of making the playoffs). However, they're in a comparatively worse (quite a bit worse) position of doing so than they were six weeks ago. It doesn't seem incompatible to me to be a dedicated fan and to take a clear-eyed view of the team's chances.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#290285) #
That's my favorite gose steal yet.

Buchholz and vazquez is as tough as it gets to steal off, and they tried 2 or 3 different moves to get him, but he still managed a great jump and beat an excellent throw cleanly.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#290286) #
See, greenfrog, by "decent position" you actually mean "better than any other current non playoff team".
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#290287) #
Buchholz is getting a very generous strike zone.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#290288) #
Right now only the Jays, Yankees and Pirates are 1 game out of a playoff slot - IE: in the thick of it. 

Of course, playing 515 ball isn't going to impress.  The Jays need a hot streak again, ideally sooner rather than later, in order to be strong contenders.  The AL West is a dog fight between the A's and Angels - pre the double wild card both teams would be relaxing from here on out as a 7 (or 9) game lead on Seattle is a big spread.  Instead they both want to win the division and avoid the one game loser goes home game.  They'll both play hard to the end and will be tough to beat in that one game.  But if the Jays get there that would be a drastic improvement over the past 20+ years.  Little steps.

Lets just hope AA doesn't go nuts and trade the farm for something to help get into that wild card game.  4 back of the O's is certainly catchupable though too and that would be a much better position to be in although it would be a 5 game set against the AL West winner unless Detroit drops a bit.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#290289) #
I actually don't consider LAA and Seattle to be in playoff position. Rather, if the season ended today they would each have roughly a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Even if you go with the more liberal definition of "playoff position," the Jays currently have a 30% of making the playoffs (per ESPN), compared to about 80% a month and a half ago.

Also, when I say "decent position," I'm looking at more than just a current snapshot of the standings. I'm taking into account team depth, health, willingness to add payroll, etc., as well as the state of the competition.

I'm happy the Jays are still in a reasonably competitive position; It's just that my optimism is tempered by the above factors.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#290290) #
Goins is not a big league ballplayer.
Eephus - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#290291) #
Bautista isn't looking too great at first either.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#290292) #
Francisco makes that throw.

Would be a shame if our super-defense lineup gives up the go ahead here.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#290293) #
That was great, dickey. Beauty.
Eephus - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#290294) #
And Dickey bails out the defense big time. Those were some mean knucklers.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#290295) #
He sure does.  And a regular first baseman blocks it.   The key to the lineup today was Gibbons' wish to have Navarro, the hot hand, DH. 

China fan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#290296) #
".....The Jays are still in a decent position to compete for a playoff spot (AL East title) or a wild card spot (50-50 chance of making the playoffs). However, they're in a comparatively worse (quite a bit worse) position of doing so than they were six weeks ago...."

I actually agree with all of that. (Although their playoff chances are closer to 26 per cent, according to official projections.)  My point was only that the dreadful collapse of the past 6 weeks hasn't entirely scuppered their season.  Despite that terrible slump, they remain within striking range of the playoffs.  That's all I was trying to say.  Glass half-full sometimes.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#290297) #
Two amazing steals against a great arm...and then he gets stupid cocky for no reason.

Gose just ain't very smart.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#290298) #
As if on cue, the Jays are saying that they were "in on" Headley. For a team that aspires to a perfect cone of silence surrounding potential trades, they sure do like to leak the names of players they were in on but that other teams acquired.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#290299) #
My sentiments exactly, greenfrog.  As my son's Grade 4 teacher said...less talk, more rock.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#290301) #
Not looking forward to watching sanchez debut against the top of the sox' order.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#290302) #
Yeah me either.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#290303) #
Did i mention to you guys how much i love goins?
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#290304) #
Prediction: Pedroia draws a walk.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#290305) #
Nice, bounces starting to go our way again.

Worm just might be turning.

But sanchez really should not be pitching in the 7th with a one run lead against the top of the order.

Prove me wrong, kid, prove me wrong!
Eephus - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#290306) #
Time to swim with the sharks, kid.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#290307) #
That was pretty awesome. 96 and 98 on the inside corner, then a weak fly on a CB in a good location.
Hodgie - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#290308) #
Sanchez is throwing 98-99 like he is playing toss. Wow.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#290309) #
Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli...way to go, kid.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#290310) #
Welcome to the major leagues, Mr. Sanchez.  Take a bow.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#290311) #
No kidding... you can see why scouts love him despite the results.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#290312) #
Nice debut, kid!

That arm is pretty awesome, especially when he's pounding the bottom and inside black like that.

Still three flyball outs means they weren't being fooled too much.

But as long as he's not crazy wild, 99mph with movement and a nasty curve should work out of the 'pen.

Hopefully.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#290313) #
Impressive.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#290314) #
I was worried about Sanchez coming in there.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#290315) #
Well then.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#290316) #
that was....hot.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#290317) #
Very pretty.
finch - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#290318) #
WHOA!!! That was an impressive 8th.

Anyone else notice he looks like a beaver?
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#290319) #
Just wait until he starts sawing off bats.
finch - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#290320) #
LOL
JB21 - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#290321) #
That was fun. Sanchez definitely needs to work on his command but his stuff is good enough to bail him out of pitches in hitable spots. Lots of movement and the CB looks solid. I like!
LouisvilleJayFan - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#290322) #
I have Sanchez's Lugnuts' jersey hanging in my office...I also have Lugnuts jerseys that belonged to Travis Snider and Brad Mills. Let's hope the third time is the charm!
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#290323) #
Give Gibbons credit.  I would have pulled Dickey after 6 innings, but I don't know that I would have had the stones to put Sanchez in for his debut in that situation.  I am pretty sure that he's going to be fine in the bullpen this year.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#290324) #
key extra base rbi hits by the likes of Thole and Goins, scintillating debut from the rookie, chance to win the series tommorrow......this is the first time in a while that the vibes have been good, and the team feels like it might just be able to get on a roll.

keep it going, boys.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#290325) #
I heard that the Blue Jays were also "in on" the following players in the past year:

All of them.

Our front office/ownership is full of crap.
Dewey - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#290326) #
There now.  I'm feeling a wee bit better.  We might be O.K., after all.
Ron - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#290327) #
Very impressive performance from Sanchez tonight.

Here is what Keith Law said on his chat today regarding liking Noah more than Sanchez now:

The Jays shortened Sanchez' stride, claiming it would help him get over his front side more - when the opposite is true - and it has ruined him in several ways. He's less athletic, his command has gone backwards, he doesn't finish the breaking ball as consistently, and of course guys with upright finishes and short strides are at greater risk of injury. Meanwhile, Thor just keeps getting better, going from a below-average curveball to a solid-average one in about a year and a half - and the Mets didn't touch what was already a good delivery."
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#290328) #
A win tomorrow by the Jays and the Red Sox just might be relegated to being a seller at the deadline. They can't afford to fall much further off the pace. De La Rosa versus Stroman has the potential to be a very good matchup, though.

After what happened last season, it would be sweet to put a major dent in the Red Sox' 2014 playoff hopes.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#290329) #
Keith Law is good at talking, at least.

that's something.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#290330) #
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Tigers and Rangers have trade agreement in place: Joakim Soria for Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel, source confirms @KyleBogie report.

trade is done.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#290331) #
"and the Mets didn't touch what was already a good delivery"

Meaning, the delivery that Noah developed with the pitcher-ruining Jays!
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#290332) #
so the yanks "win" again.

Evan Grant @Evan_P_Grant
Yankee grounds crew has made a mess of the tarp. The field will not be playable in mere moments.

Evan Grant @Evan_P_Grant
They can't get the tarp on the field, which is really not a good thing.

James G @james_in_to
Convenient! ;P

Andy Martino @MartinoNYDN
Rain delay announced 4 mins ago, when it started pouring. Tarp not even close to being on infield yet. Totally soaked. Weird.

Evan Grant @Evan_P_Grant
This is official. Rangers have lost, 2-1 to the grounds crew. And the Yankees.

Andy Martino @MartinoNYDN
Did it cross Washington's mind that slow tarp rollout might be intentional? "Next question."
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#290333) #
My guess is that Tanaka has TJ surgery within the next couple of months.

How the heck are the Yankees playing .520 ball without Tanaka, CC, Nova and Pineda?

With the addition of Headley (and even without Teixeira and KJ), their feckless lineup is actually looking tolerably OK, if not exactly fearsome:

Gardner
Jeter
Ellsbury
Beltran
McCann
Headley
Suzuki
Cervelli
Ryan

In any case, I demand that the Yankees finish the season below .500. The laws of physics must prevail in the end.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#290334) #
beware the laws of jeter-lovin' umps.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#290335) #
One thing Cashman seems to have done in recent years is place a strong emphasis on defense. Gardner/Ellsbury/Ichiro in the OF, Headley at 3B, Ryan at 2B, Tex at 1B, McCann behind the plate. Yes, they're still running Jeter out there, but that is a strong defense.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#290336) #
and I always assumed Noah had a delivery even before he was drafted.

It's easy to mock Law, he gives his opinion and he may be right or may be wrong. But let's not pretend we know better than he does. Some pitchers don't need their deliveries overhauled (Noah, Stroman), some do (Sanchez, Norris, Wojo). Sometimes the tinkering seems to work (Norris) and sometimes it doesn't (Wojo).

Has Sanchez' revamped delivery helped his control? Certainly the minor league numbers say no. Can anyone find one independent scouting report from anyone that disagrees with Law's assessment? Please post it.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#290337) #
I'm not sure it's fair to equate Noah and Stroman. Stroman's delivery likely received a lot of polishing during his years at Duke. Syndergaard was a HS pick and it took a while before he really started getting noticed as a minor-league prospect. Presumably the Jays helped him quite a bit in getting on the right developmental path.

And I say this as someone who respects Law's opinion (I've quoted him on this site a fair bit).
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#290338) #
It's been reported by a tweet by Ken Rosenthal:
the Toronto front office is once again focusing on finding pitching help at the deadline with the returns of Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie imminent.

@Ken_Rosenthal

#BlueJays again focused on pitching - starting or relief. Believe Lind, Encarnacion, Reimold could be back next week, Lawrie in two weeks

Special Thanks to Jays Journal http://jaysjournal.com/2014/07/23/trade-rumors-toronto-blue-jays-shifting-focus-to-starter-relief-markets-mlb-antonio-bastardo-philadelphia-phillies/

uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#290339) #
It's not law's opinion that matters to me, it's how quickly he changes it when prospects change teams, and his fascinating explanations about how it wasn't about the teams but some extremely overspecific quirk that sounds real technical but is just a load of BS.

with Brett Wallace it was "wide hips", which was always particularly funny.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#290340) #
Rosenthal recently quoted a scout who was raving about Sanchez (in a good way) as a potential #1 or 2 SP. Presumably the scout wasn't too upset about the Jays ruining his delivery.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#290341) #
While the Jays are "focused" on acquiring pitching, other teams (the Jays' playoff competition, in fact) are busy actually acquiring it:

Samardzija
Hammel
McCarthy
Street
Soria
uglyone - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#290342) #
btw, that's a helluva price detroit just paid to rent Soria.

pretty crazy.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#290343) #
Soria isn't just a rental (affordable $7M team option for 2015).
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#290344) #
And the O's take a 2-1 lead against the Angels in the 6th. Baltimore is playing good baseball right now. Still a ways to go in this one, though.
acepinball - Wednesday, July 23 2014 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#290345) #
I think money is tight and any move the Jays make now impacts what they can do in November. I'd sure rather have the cash to offer Melky a qualifying offer than to pick up a few months of a closer. Is McCarthy really all that much better than Happ? Is he that much of an incremental upgrade on the risk of Morrow? Is Headley/Lawrie at third and second enough of an upgrade over a Kawasaki/Tolleson/Francisco 2B/3B platoon? If he flopped, wouldn't the Jays just have poured money down the drain, considering they've got a high reward high risk guy already in Juan Francisco?

It's a tough time to be AA. I feel good about him holding onto the valuable young arms and perhaps making a deal in August if it's just a slight incremental upgrade.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#290346) #
"Has Sanchez' revamped delivery helped his control"

Well, it may be a case of baby steps but since issuing 4 walks in 3 straight games Sanchez has only issued 5 in his last 23 innings including tonight's action. I am not implying he a now a sub-2 bb/9 pitcher but it is at least encouraging.
hypobole - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#290347) #
"Rosenthal recently quoted a scout who was raving about Sanchez (in a good way) as a potential #1 or 2 SP. Presumably the scout wasn't too upset about the Jays ruining his delivery."

I read that on MLBTR, only the scout was talking about Stroman and Norris, not Sanchez.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 05:18 AM EDT (#290348) #
Very encouraging debut from Sanchez - I wonder how much the Jays were influenced by the success of Dellin Betances with the Yankees.
Melky Cabrera & Gose are talented players, but they seem to have really low baseball I.Q - I'm sure Gibbons must have privately scolded them, but I'd like to see an occasional public tongue-lashing of their ongoing foibles - the Jays as a team seem to make more unforced errors/poor decision making than any contender - imagine if we had included Stroman & Sanchez in a deal for Samardzija?
Given the high price paid for Houston Street & Joakim Soria, I'm leaning more & more to the view that the jays should eschew the big deal & maybe make minor acquisitions (or do nothing) & just wait for the return of their injured players
85bluejay - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 05:23 AM EDT (#290349) #
Sorry, in the previous post, the Stroman & Sanchez trade comment should be at the end
greenfrog - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#290350) #
You're right hypobole, my mistake about the Rosenthal quote. I believe, however, that Bob Elliot recently mentioned hearjng a scout talking about Sanchez (and Norris?) in this vein. But then his unnamed scout was also high on DJ Davis, if I recall correctly.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#290351) #
Jays had a shot at those low cost options (headley, Mc). Apparently we were "in on them".

As for Soria: I understand that it looks like a steep price but I honestly believe that in addition to having the best nickname since Dennis Boyd, he is the heir to Mariano for sustained dominance as closer. I'd take him on the Jays if ew didn't have to give up Norris, Pompey, Barreto, Osuna or any MLB pieces.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#290352) #
The fact that the Soria return is considered a steep price says more about the quality of the Tigers minor league system than the quality of the return. It is why I don't understand the thought that the Jays would have received any significant return on Delabar or Cecil last season. I am not arguing they should not have been traded but I doubt highly they would have received much in return for either player.
John Northey - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#290353) #
There is the thing.... Stroman easily could've been included in a deal for help last winter and without him where would the Jays be?  I get nervous when prospects are traded and so far the Jays seem to be picking the right ones to keep (Stroman, Sanchez) and the right ones to trade (Syn, Wojo).  It is a tough game - picking who to keep and who to trade.  Gillick traded Jeff Kent who would have a near HOF (or maybe HOF) career to help win that first WS (rental of David Cone).  The Expos traded Randy Johnson (plus others) for a rental that looked good at the time but didn't win the division and then watched Johnson win 300+ elsewhere.  The Tigers in '87 trading for Doyle Alexander (perfect down the stretch in W-L) for John Smoltz (who was in the minors at the time).  Or the most famous, the Red Sox trading Bagwell while in the minors for a middle reliever rental (ugh).

Amazing how often HOF or near HOF'ers can be traded while in the minors.  Scary for teams when doing trades as that is the worst case situation.  Of course you get the opposite quite often too, where the players you get are worthless (Jays trading David Cone to the Yankees for a few hot prospects who all flopped for example). 

That 1995 Cone year was odd... traded by KC to the Jays for Tony Medrano (minors), David Sinnes (minors) and Chris Stynes then the Jays traded him to the Yankees a few months later for Mike Gordon (minors), Jason Jarvis (minors) and Marty Janzen.Just 2 of the 6 prospects made the majors, with Janzen a total flop (77 ERA+ in 98 2/3 IP) while Stynes reached 500 PA just once in his career, cracking a 100 OPS+ twice in a 10 year part time career.
Chuck - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#290354) #
Off topic... one man's evaluation of all the MLB ballparks.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#290355) #
That's where knowing your prospects better than anyone else is important. For instance (and this is purely hypothetical) if the Jays knew that Franklin Barretto lacked good work habits or had an alcohol/substance abuse problem or just refused to take instruction then they should angle for his inclusion over an equivalently high ceiling prospect who doesn't.

Or you take the Tigers/Yankees strategy which is to gut your farm system, and then keep trading away your "#2, #3" ranked prospects even though they wouldn't make the top 25 in other systems.

For some reason the Media helps the Yankees with this every year too (i.e. Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Wily Mo Pena, Melky). Pena and Melky in particular never had any business on top 100 lists.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#290357) #
Off topic... one man's evaluation of all the MLB ballparks.

Yep.  That's just about right.  It's interesting that the two worst ballparks, o.co and the trop, host innovative ballclubs.  Perhaps necessity breeds invention?
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#290358) #
Another day, another lineup.  Reyes 6, Cabrera 7, Bautista 9, Navarro 2, Johnson 0, Kawasaki 5, Francisco 3, Goins 4, Gose 8.  I don't know why you would have Francisco playing first base and Johnson DHing rather than the other way around.  Maybe Johnson tweaked some muscle in his leg or something; there's been enough of that going around.
PeteMoss - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#290361) #
The Tigers are built for now. They should be willing to move any prospects for upgrades. Their best players are all in the back end (or past) their prime - Cabrera, V.Martinez, Kinsler, Verlander and Schrezer.

They've got some young guys - J.Martinez, Porcello but this is their window. Cabrera and Verlander are having down years (or slowing down whichever you prefer) so the window isn't going to be open for much longer.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#290362) #
I also notice that Gibbons was pleased at how much better Cabrera looked after resting up over the All Star break. I wish the Jays would take note and rotate and rest their regulars more, instead of riding them until they break. Of course, to do this arguably would have required more depth than the Jays were willing to add in the off-season.

The thing is, the depth is pretty good. At least now it is. We had the ridiculous situation early in the year of Sierra, being the 4th outfielder (with no 5th), and the infield wasn't much better. But since the arrival of the Francisco/Tolleson platoon, and with Gose here semi-regularly, and now with Kawasaki and Goins on the roster, there's plenty of opportunity for Gibbons to rest guys like Bautista, Cabrera, and Reyes -- he just doesn't do it. In one of the post-game conferences a month or two ago, he said he knew he needed to get those guys some rest but that it was hard since they were so important. And I don't think he ever did do it. Maybe Bautista got one day off prior to his injury. It's the same with the bullpen, a problem going back to last year. He needs to keep a longer-term perspective. That's his job.

Not that this is just on Gibbons. The front office should be insisting on it -- they're maybe at fault more than the manager.
Thomas - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#290363) #

John, I'm not sure on what basis you can state that keeping Sanchez over Syndergaard was a case of the Jays picking the right one to keep and the right one to deal when Syndergaard was basically a consensus Top 15 prospect on midseason lists, which would have taken into account his injury issues this season, and was consistently ranked notably higher than Sanchez, who has had two good innings of relief in the majors to date.

Maybe Sanchez over Syndergaard will prove to be the right call, but I don't think you can state that the Jays appear to have made the right choice, even on a tentative basis. At best you can defer to their internal evaluations, but it's also possible they may have preferred to keep Syndergaard and chose to include him as it was the price required to get Dickey.

John Northey - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#290364) #
Thomas - good points.  Sanchez has reached the majors and had 2 shutout innings vs some high end hitting, Syndergaard has a 5.34 ERA in AAA although that is in Vegas and his K/9 and BB/9 are solid figures.  Guess the fact Sanchez is in the pen for a contender while Syndergaard is in the minors for a sub-500 team biased me a bit there.  Both have been viewed as extremely good prospects and Syndergaard has a tough battle this year in Vegas (thank goodness the Jays escaped that place).  Sanchez has been wild this year but if he has that under control he could be a 'wow' guy.  Hopefully the Jays made the right call there is how I should've put it.

Boy could next year have a young rotation with Hutch & Stroman both 23 this year and Sanchez 21 all being favorites to make it.  Mix in guys like Nolin (AAA), Norris (AA), Boyd (AA), and others and it gets very fun to look at.  Anyone in A+ could be in the majors next year if he gets it going early in 2015 (has happened often in Jays history).  It should be fun to watch.  Hopefully it'll be with a bit of ML playoff experience as well :)
greenfrog - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#290366) #
Sanchez has reached the majors and had 2 shutout innings vs some high end hitting

To keep some SSS perspective, in his ML debut, Arencibia went 4/5 with 2 HR and a double. He's a career 207/254/401 hitter in the majors.

One game doesn't mean a whole lot, although Sanchez did show some tremendous stuff last night.
bpoz - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#290367) #
We all know that the 40 man roster will change when the season ends. The 2010 HS picks & the 2011 College picks have to be added to be protected. To add you have to subtract.
A Sanchez added already.He is a good extra BP arm & possible 5th rotation arm, but most likely goes to AAA as a starter to try to earn his way up, IMO. Pompey sent down to get regular playing time, unless he earns a regular spot. The same with A Burns.
This is pretty good depth IMO. I try to do something this Sept with must add players if possible. For example if Mastro has no options left for next year, I would risk cutting him now and going with Gose, Pillar & Pompey as my 4th OF & for Sept my 5th OF if the budget can handle it. When Buffalo is done I bring up AJ Jimenez, it cannot hurt. He is 1 of 5 catchers on the 40 man roster.
The 2015 rotation has some youth, Stroman & Hutch. I like Sanchez & D Norris as 6th SP depth if they look like they can handle it. Also Nolin & Jenkins to name 2 other depth guys as SP or BP.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#290368) #
He was also following Dickey and the hitters were swapping a knuckler for a 99 MPH fastball. I'm pretty sure that played a role in his success and that it played a role in Gibby choosing him in the first place.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#290369) #
Although to his credit, Sanchez's first two pitches were well-located fastballs on the inside black at 96 and 98. He then got Pedroia to fly out on a buckling 0-2 curveball that had Dustin off-balance. His control was pretty solid for someone who has had control/command issues and who was making his ML debut. I don't believe Sanchez's strong debut was solely or mainly the result of following Dickey, although the contrast might have helped him somewhat.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#290371) #
Goins is some kind of fun to watch in the field.
bpoz - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#290372) #
Today at least Sanchez must feel that he can handle ML hitters. Pedroia, Ortiz & Napoli. That is a big 1st step. But there may be bumps on the road.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#290373) #
That hr might just be the final nail in the coffin for the 2014 Boston Red Sox.

(knock on wood)

Which is pretty sweet to deliver...especially after that 14-1 beatdown.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#290374) #
It might be worth watching this game.  The work will still be there.
Magpie - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#290375) #
Amazing how often HOF or near HOF'ers can be traded while in the minors.

My favourite was when the Phillies and Cubs decided to swap their below-average shortstops (Larry Bowa and Ivan DeJesus) and the Phillies tossed in Ryne Sandberg as a sweetener.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#290376) #
I notice stroman has allowed two baserunners via bases on balls thru 5ip.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#290377) #
However, checking the numbers, I see that I might have slightly exaggerated this in my mind. Gose is seeing an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearance this year, which is only a little above the MLB average of 3.83 pitches per plate appearance.

Your initial impression might be right, though. That figure for Gose includes a relatively high number of 1-pitch bunt ABs.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#290379) #
The Jays could win the Second Wild Card or win the Division. First WC is held by the LA Angels, who with the Oakland As have the best records in the AL, with everyone else too far back. I want the Division, but I will settle for WC #2 if nothing else is available.
Got a message from a friend who's been watching the Oriole games. He's visiting his wife's elderly parents in Baltimore, who are die-hard Oriole fans. The Orioles are more "lucky than good" and a heavy insistence on the lucky.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#290380) #
Stro needs 3 more innings.

He's at 91 pitches.

I think they definitely give him 20 more pitches at least, which probably won't be enough.

30 more pitches is doable, but they'll be grimacing while they let him.

They could even let him go 40 more pitches, but i'll believe that when i see it.
Chuck - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#290381) #
Stroman has been, ahem, pretty good through 6 innings. His pitch count is at 91, so Gibbons may soon be faced with a difficult decision should Boston not do something to make it easier for him. I don't think we're going to see a 135-pitch complete game.
Chuck - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#290382) #
Great minds, uglyone, great minds...
hypobole - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#290383) #
Am I the only one that's hoping the Sox get some squib single? 91 pitches through 6. The last thing I want to see is Stroman throw 130+, even if it wasn't a 7-0 game.
Chuck - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#290385) #
Am I the only one that's hoping the Sox get some squib single?

I'm sure Gibbons is, though he'd never admit it.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#290386) #
Wish granted.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#290387) #
Bloop!
PeteMoss - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#290388) #
So this Stroman guy is pretty good.
Chuck - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#290389) #
Well, the 7th inning worked out perfectly. Stroman leaves with his shutout intact, having not lost focus after yielding the hit. And he's right at 100 pitches with a big lead, so bring on the bullpen.
PeteMoss - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#290390) #
As per Wilner that hit was the first ball the Red Sox hit out of the infield all game.
hypobole - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#290391) #
There's a very real possibility in a few years people will be wondering "how the heck did this kid last till the 22nd pick?" I'm sure many are wondering that already.

And to think we drafted D. J. Davis 5 picks earlier. Shudder.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#290392) #
One of my rules.  If a major league pitcher comes on with an 8-0 lead and throws 4 consecutive pitches considerably out of the zone, he does not have it that day.  Get someone warming and ready to take his place asap.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#290393) #
And if he throws 7 consecutive balls out of the zone, get someone else in there right away.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#290394) #
Yeah, I'd let Rasmussen try to work it out. Or if they're going to get the bullpen going, then let it be Esmil Rogers. Loup shouldn't be throwing, he should be getting some rest.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#290395) #
Esmil Rogers was made for that situation.  I am glad Rasmussen worked it out, but I don't like the message that is delivered- impossibly bad control problems are OK.  If you throw 7 straight balls, most of which are not remotely close to the strike zone, in a situation where a walk is essentially as damaging as a home run, you do not have it that day. 
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#290396) #
"There's a very real possibility in a few years people will be wondering "how the heck did this kid last till the 22nd pick?" I'm sure many are wondering that already."



Velo, command, full arsenal of pitches. Elite milb and mlb track record. Even seems to have a healthy dose of intangibly awesome confidence and pitchability,

Literally the only reason he wasn't considered an elite talent coming up was because he was short.
John Northey - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#290397) #
Sweet - 1 hit allowed to the Sox, 8 runs for the Jays. Always nice to score more runs than your opponent has baserunners (8 vs 6).

Stroman... just a wow kid isn't he?  3 of his last 4 starts have been 7 innings 0 runs vs Oakland, Texas and now Boston.  Somehow the Angels got to him in the middle there (3 2/3 IP 6 R 5 ER).

In his 10 starts he has only twice allowed more than 2 runs.  Only twice gone less than 6 innings.  That is extremely impressive.  And he is here for 6 more years before free agency due to his starting 2014 in the minors.  Sweet.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#290398) #
What a satisfying and surprisingly clutch performance from the jays in a huge series against their red hot nemesis. And some great character shown in shrugging off that horrendous opening game loss.

After looking dead in the water for over a month, they're now 5-2 since the break, the offense has woken up, our elite young pitching talents are looking great, the injured cavalry seems to be on its way....and with SEA and BAL battling head to head 7 of the next 10 games, we'll definitely be gaining ground on playoff spot(s) if we keep on winning.

Yeah so i'm excited...sue me!

Maybe that 14-1 loss just proved that its always darkest before dawn.
grjas - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#290399) #
Literally the only reason he wasn't considered an elite talent coming up was because he was short.

Love his story of getting tips from Pedro. Hopefully he's good enough to someday return the favour.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#290400) #
Velo, command, full arsenal of pitches. Elite milb and mlb track record. Even seems to have a healthy dose of intangibly awesome confidence and pitchability,
Literally the only reason he wasn't considered an elite talent coming up was because he was short.

There was some question about his off-speed stuff when he first arrived in the majors.  Those questions, in hindsight, appear to have arisen mostly because he is short.

Incidentally, you forgot to mention that he is a joy to watch, although "intangibly awesome confidence and pitchability" might be another way of saying that. 
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#290401) #
So what are the chances Hutchison is done? Because he hasn't been really good (as he usually is) for over three weeks, kind of sucky instead.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#290402) #
So what are the chances Hutchison is done?

32%, within 8% 19 times out of 20.
mathesond - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#290404) #
I'm not sure about your math, Mike. Did you remember to carry the 2?
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#290406) #
Ah, phooey. I can't do math for sheeeet.  Maybe I'll try this another way.  Drew Hutchison's starts since June 3 were wowie, tres sucky, pretty freaking good, icky, not bad, hot hot hot, meh, eww and triple eww.  We're due for a yes yes yes.
MatO - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#290407) #
32%, within 8%, 95% of the time.
Reminds me of an SCTV sketch with Earl Camembert.
grjas - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#290408) #
Interesting comment today by Griffin:

"Since June 5 ..... Buehrle and Dickey are a combined 2-11, Stroman and Happ are a combined 8-5"
China fan - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#290409) #
Stroman was obviously the big story today, but for me the hitting was equally significant.  The Jays have to survive until the return of Encarnacion, Lind, Lawrie and Reimold.  They have to remain in the playoff hunt, despite their weakened lineup.  We've seen good hitting from the top of the order recently, but the crucial question is whether the lineup can get some production from the lesser lights, at least until the return of those 4 injured hitters.  So to see the hitting today from Francisco and Goins was nice.  Francisco is definitely on the bubble -- he knows he could easily be dumped when the big hitters return -- but today he rose to the challenge (against a good pitcher). It was a reminder that we can't count him out yet.   As for Goins, I continue to be (perhaps naively) optimistic that he might eventually turn into an adequate hitter.  In his games this week, he has hit the ball hard.  That's a promising sign. 
John Northey - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#290410) #
Just checking July splits at B-R for starters including Stroman's 'woohoo' today...
Dickey: 3.44 ERA over 5 starts 34 IP, but 2-3 record
Buehrle: 5.29 ERA over 3 starts 17 IP 0-1 record (guess we knew a 'back to earth' period was coming)
Hutchison: 6.97 ERA over 4 starts 20 2/3 IP 1-3 record, 9 BB 23 SO just 1 HR so I think lots of bad luck is in there
Happ: 5.50  ERA over 4 games 3 starts 18 IP 1-1 record but 0 HR 4 BB 11 SO so again a bit of bad BABIP luck
Stroman: 1.82 ERA over 4 starts 24 2/3 IP 2-0 record

So we have Dickey & Stroman as the 2 solids, Buehrle, Hutch, and Happ all actually weren't that bad but H/9 were nuts for all 3 (76 hits over 55 2/3 IP) vs HR/BB/SO rates (2 HR 18 BB 45 SO) so I'm not too worried.

Another top level starter would be nice, shifting Happ or Hutch (to keep his innings down) to the pen.  But it would need to be a guy who would be expected to have a sub 4 ERA, ideally 3.50 or better.  Problem is the old 'who is really a seller' and would they trade a top notch starter at a price the Jays would pay?  I seriously doubt it.  The Rangers & Houston are way out of it but neither has starters they'd trade (sorry, no Darvish trade).  Minny has Phil Hughes who they just got in the offseason as a free agent but he is affordable so I doubt they'd trade him at a reasonable price.  White Sox have a couple great ones in Sale & Quintana but no way either is available.  The Mets are trying to dump Bartolo Colon according to rumours and his FIP is just 3.50 after 3 solid AL seasons but is Rogers willing to pay $11 mil next year plus the rest of his $9 mil this year?  Daisuke Matsuzaka would be not bad in the pen (wild) but is no more than another Happ in the rotation (ie: filler).  The Marlins have Henderson Alvarez but he is still too cheap for them to dump (arb year one is this winter).  The Phillies have a few tempting guys in Burnett, Hammels, Lee, but the raw dollars is high for any of them and no-trade clauses all have the Jays as a 'no go'.  The Cubs already traded their tradeable starters (Arrieta isn't available, and no interest in the rest).  The Padres have Ian Kennedy (one more arb year then free agent) who'd be nice to have, plus they seem a bit bizarre in judgement having sent Jesse Hahn to the minors for some reason (2.21 ERA in 7 starts, 16-47 BB-SO ratio in 40 2/3 IP and just 24...sending him down seems crazier than sending, say, Stroman down) so who knows with them what they'd be after.

Should be interesting to see if the Jays do anything about it all now.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#290411) #
Since June 5th, Buehrle has lost a lot of game because the offense didn't show up.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#290412) #
MLB division records, at this second:

ALW 257-247, .510
NLC 257-247, .510
ALE 258-250, .508
ALC 251-250, .501
NLE 249-254, .495
NLW 242-266, .476

so much for the "mediocre AL East".
christaylor - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#290413) #
I don't disagree with the point, the AL East is probably better than the doubters give it credit for, but the citing the records of each of the division misses an important aspect about what is different this year -- when people talk about the mediocre AL East the parity in the division is more on point.

Also I am also not sure division winning percentage as a stat says anything of use given how restricted the variance/range is... I have never looked but probably most years one would find that the winning percentages aren't credibly different from one another.

No team in the AL East really stacks up with the Tigers, A's, or Angels. That's really what makes the AL East mediocre.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#290414) #
Let's start with what we know:

The Jays were 11-9 through April 22nd and were tied for first or in first for 7 games during that period. From April 23 to April 30th, the Jays were 1-6. From May 1st through June 6th, the Jays were 24-9 and were in first/tied for first for 16 games. Since then, including today, the Jays are 15-25 and were in first/tied first for 25 games. Within that was a period of 9 games where they went 5-4 (June 23-July 2nd) and looked to be turning it around. Alas it was not yet happening. However it should be noted that the injuries were not solely responsible for "the slide". Hitters stopped doing the thing that got them there the first time.

Dickey's biggest issue is as every one knows, the 7th Inning. Several times, his record is 6.0 IP but somewhere is written "faced two batters in the 7th".

Buehrle's 'back to earth' period is a crock of overripe manure. Much too often he does his job and takes a loss.
June 07th: 5-0 loss; 7.0, 1R/ER, (10-2);
June 12th: 4-2 loss; 6.1, 4R/ER, (10-3);
June 18th: 7-3 loss; 6.0, 3R/2ER, (10-4):
June 24th: 7-6 win; 6.2, 4R/ER, (10-4);
June 29th: 4-0 loss; 8.0, 2ER, (10-5);
July 05th: 5-1 loss; 6.0, 3R/ER, (10-6);
July 11th: 8-5 win; 5.0, 2ER, (10-6);
July 20th: 9-6 win; 6.0, 5ER, (10-6). Was it defense, poor offense or was it Relief issue? He pitched well in five Starts, and not that badly in the other three.

Hutchison has put back-to-back dogs together, ugly ones. During the slide he's 2-6 with two very good starts, three not too bad and three stinkers. The issue becomes, how long has he been tipping his pitches, and how long it was happening before anyone noticed. He's a good pitcher, just not a consistent winner. That's not a good sign, he needs to be better.

Happ is supposed to have developed a new pitch in the offseason. Right now he's pitching very well. He just needs to win back-to-back starts consistently.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#290415) #
So we have Dickey & Stroman as the 2 solids, Buehrle, Hutch, and Happ all actually weren't that bad

Personally, I'd have it as Stroman in the spectacular category and the others serviceable- Dickey gave up 4.5 runs per 9 innings over the last month,  which was better than Hutchison and Happ over the same frame.
John Northey - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#290416) #
Dickey I see as solid due to the ability to count on 6 decent innings every start.  Not spectacular, but not 'oh god no' either. 

22 starts - 17 with 6+ innings, just one under 5 IP (4 1/3 on April 17th)
1 time he allowed 6 runs, 5 times 5 runs, 5 times 4 runs, 11 times 3 or fewer (just 3 of 1 or 0). 

Basically he is a solid #3 in the rotation guy.  Someone who won't tax the bullpen but needs some offense to win.  Makes me think of a Jim Clancy or Jack Morris type (less endurance, but that is also due to the era, these days 6+ is like 8+ was then in a lot of respects).

Buehrle was spectacular for his first 13 starts - team was 11-2, ERA of 2.04, just once allowed more than 3 runs and had 5+ everytime (6+ in 11 of 13).  Then... 7 starts team 3-4 4.50 ERA 7+ innings just once (7 of his first 13 were 7+ IP).  Still, has thrown 5+ every single start this year, 17 of 20 with 6+ thus good for the pen.  He's been a good #1, very good #2 in the rotation but if he doesn't get back to the earlier form he'll be a decent #2 and solid #3 (ala Dickey)

Hutchison has 20 starts, 15 of 5+ IP3 times allowing 6 runs, 3 times 5, but 5 times he allowed 0 runs, 4 more times 1 or 2 runs.  So in 9 of 20 games he did all one could ask.  Very hot and cold, very much a kid in that respect.  Great in the #4 slot, scary but livable in the #3 and if he can gain consistency he'd be a good #1 or 2 potentially.

Happ has 14 starts, 10 with 5+ IP, twice allowing 6+, 4 times 0 runs.  2 times 1 run (never 2 runs).  Much like Hutch very much hot and cold.  His shutout appearances were against Boston, Oakland, ChiSox and Philly so not exactly teams with no offense.  Unlike Hutch he has been around the block a lot so he should be more consistent.  His overall results are predictable (4.55 ERA vs 4.56 last year and 4.69 here the year before) but game to game he sure isn't.

Stroman - future ace if not already.  10 starts, just one allowing more than 3 runs 3 times 0 runs 3 times 1 run, twice 2 runs.  Makes me think of Juan Guzman as far as exploding onto the scene goes - even has a knuckleballer in the rotation just like Guzman had.  Go figure.  8 times with 6+ innings but twice under 4 innings (ick).  Just what the Jays needed.

So we have a #1 in Stroman although you hate to put a rookie into that position.  Then a #2 in Buehrle, a #3 in Dickey and Hutch/Happ decent #4's.  Can't really complain about how the rotation has worked out.  McGowan, Morrow, and Hendriks all had chances and flopped - I suspect Morrow will be in the pen when/if he returns.  Rogers/Rasmussen are fungable, Janssen/Cecil/Loup/McGowan solid late inning guys while Redmond has been solid in the long slot all year (52 1/3 IP 172 ERA+...who knew?). 

Hopefully Sanchez has a solid August/September and earns a shot at the rotation in 2015.  Ideally Happ would be around as a long man/#6 who gets 10-20 starts with Hutchison as the #4/5 mixed with Sanchez.  Then the kids keep climbing in the minors and are ready for 2016 when Buehrle's contract runs out (winter of 15/16), and more ready for 2017 once all of Dickey's options are finished (2015 is his option year which I suspect the Jays will pick up as he is a solid inning eater if nothing else and that is well worth $12 mil in the MLB market).  Hutch is a free agent pre-2019, Happ has an option for 2015 ($6.7 mil which I expect the Jays to pick up) then a free agent.  Stroman is here until 2020 (weird... 2020 always seemed so futuristic when I was a kid).
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#290417) #
"I don't disagree with the point, the AL East is probably better than the doubters give it credit for, but the citing the records of each of the division misses an important aspect about what is different this year -- when people talk about the mediocre AL East the parity in the division is more on point.

Also I am also not sure division winning percentage as a stat says anything of use given how restricted the variance/range is... I have never looked but probably most years one would find that the winning percentages aren't credibly different from one another.

No team in the AL East really stacks up with the Tigers, A's, or Angels. That's really what makes the AL East mediocre."



I understand why people talk about it, and why the perception is there - but if the division ends up with the best record, then whether the parity can easily be explained as a result of there being no weak teams to pad their record against, like the other division leaders have in their division.


is it really true nobody in the East can matchup to those teams? not so sure about that. I know the Jays have played those 3 teams pretty much dead even this year, at least. 8-9 record (64rf/61ra).
greenfrog - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#290418) #
Those teams have made some quality additions of late (Samardzija, Hammel, Street, Soria).

Of course, the Jays have too, internally (Stroman, Sanchez).

Here's a poll question of sorts: what one (realistic) move would you make to improve the team before the July deadline? Add Rios, Beltre, Franklin, Prado, Kennedy, Price, Lester, Bastardo? Who would you go after, and how (realistically) would you entice the other GM to agree? Put your cards on the table, or complain no more about non-acquisitions!
greenfrog - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#290420) #
Also, is Rogers/Beeston/AA really going to go all meow and let the injury-depleted Yankees surpass them yet again, this time by acquiring Headley, McCarthy and now possibly Kennedy and/or other players? New York has been shoring up their Tanaka-less team quite nicely on the cheap, so far as I can tell.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#290421) #
calling hammel a quality addition is probably a stretch.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#290422) #
Price would be my #1 priority, if he's available.

I'd like another reliever too, but I wouldn't overpay for an NL reliever with poor command like Bastardo. There's probably smarter RP acquisitions out there.

1) Ace SP
2) Good RP
3) RH CF

those would be my targets.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#290423) #
Bastardo because he's under contract for more than this year. I heard he might become Janssen's replacement. Ian Kennedy, also because the Yankees are after him.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#290424) #
118 ERA+ in 115.2 innings in 2014...where would those stats rank on the Jays' staff this year? Just wondering.
uglyone - Thursday, July 24 2014 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#290425) #
44era+ in the AL this year.

82era+ in the AL last year.

85era+ in the AL career.
greenfrog - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#290426) #
McCarthy, Headley and Street were acquired relatively cheaply. Samardzija, Hammel and Soria all cost a lot in prospects.

As the Cards' GM said recently, it's a sellers' market. And I hate buying high. I suspect AA does too. Maybe nothing goes down in the end.

Price, Kennedy, Prado, Beltre, Rios and Franklin are a few potential targets. Maybe Lester, if he could be rented for a few good but non-elite prospects. Utley of course would be super-bon, but no way it happens (prohibitively expensive contract (for Rogers), likelihood of injury on turf, Phillies' disinclination to move him, high cost in prospects because he's a name-brand player).

Of the above names, Rios might be the most realistic fit. Maybe Kennedy, if the Jays are willing to pony up.

Is Franklin even good? I don't even know anymore. The fact that the A's were hot to trot for him makes me want him, too. Maybe he could be had in a three-way trade, but do the Jays really want to improve the M's?

I could see the Rays keeping Price. They've been playing great baseball and are almost back in the thick of it.
greenfrog - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#290428) #
As for Hammel, he might or might not fizzle for the A's, but I wouldn't jump to any firm conclusions about him based on two starts and 7 IP, glossing those stats as his "AL ERA+ this year" and eliding his 108.2 IP of 132 ERA+ 2014 pitching before that.

Samardzija has been doing nicely so far in the AL, though, easing the pain of Hammel's rocky re-entry to the DH league.
uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#290429) #
Shark may have been lucky to run into our ice cold offense his first game.

his Ks have dropped in the AL, and his fip and xfip are back to his career mediocre levels.
uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#290430) #
Division Record update:

NLC 258-248 .510
ALE 259-250 .509
ALW 258-250 .508
ALC 254-252 .502
NLE 250-256 .494
NLW 243-266 .477
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#290432) #
The AL East has gone from -6 to +9 in a week.
greenfrog - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#290434) #
Uglyone, you might want to re-check Shark's stats this morning. So far with Oakland:

4 GS, 30 IP, 20 H, 4 HR, 2 BB, 20 K, 141 ERA+

Some people are just hard to please, I guess.
John Northey - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#290435) #
Right now the ML are fairly even outside of the NL West it seems.  +-10 games isn't much for division vs division records.

The NL West is 2 good teams (Giants and Dodgers) and 3 bad teams (10+ games behind top two, all 10+ under 500 - Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies).    The NL Central has 4 teams over 500, 1 below.

For interesting you get the AL West - 2 'wow' teams (A's & Angels), 1 good team (Mariners who are 7 1/2 behind LAA), and 2 poor teams (Houston & Texas both 18+ under 500 and 20+ out of 1st, 10+ behind 3rd place). 

For dull you get the AL Central - Tigers leading by 7 games, then a 5 game spread between the rest.

If you uses SRS (factors in strength of schedule and how well a team is playing) the Jays are tied with Baltimore (0.4) and would be #2 in the NL (Washington is #1 at 0.5).  In the AL you get 3 teams in the west ahead of the Jays (1.7, 1.0, 0.7 for the top 3 in the west) and the Tigers (0.6).  So right now 4 teams in the AL are better than any in the NL and if Washington falters you could have 6 teams in the AL better than anyone in the NL.
Mike Green - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#290436) #
Price vs. Lester tonight.  Nice.

The Jays face 3 RHPs in Yankee, with a night game today followed by a day game tomorrow.  I wonder if Gibbons will give Thole a start in tonight's game or tomorrow's.  You could run out a line up of Francisco at third, Goins at shortstop, Kawasaki at second, Johnson at first and Reyes DHing, and give Navarro a day off and Reyes a bit of a rest.  It's about time to give Cabrera a day off from the field too (presumably on a different day).  Yankee Stadium is not a bad place to have Gose and Rasmus in left and center because of the dimensions. 

Mike Green - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#290437) #
Greenfrog, the point about Samardzija is that pitching in Oakland is a really great place for a pitcher to be particularly from a BABIP perspective.  The large foul territory and the excellent defence makes pitchers seem better than they are.  Samardzija's FIP in Oakland so far is 4.04.  For comparison purposes, Blue Jay starters this year have FIPs of 3.11 (Stroman), 3.69 (Buehrle), 3.81 (Hutchison), 4.18 (Happ) and 4.54 (Dickey).  Samardzija would have helped this club, but you wouldn't want to give up the equivalent of Addison Russell to get him. 
Hodgie - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#290439) #
"4 GS, 30 IP, 20 H, 4 HR, 2 BB, 20 K, 141 ERA+"

Call me crazy, but its my guess his .200 BABIP and 0.69 BB/9 rates probably aren't sustainable. The results have been nice but he has been fortunate to say the least. Count me in the camp that expects some significant regression from Samardzija.

Lylemcr - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#290440) #

I think the key to the Jays playoff hopes is simple.  Get healthy. 

MatO - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#290441) #
And stay healthy.
John Northey - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#290442) #
Agreed.  Health is a big, big concern.

I worry about how rest is handled here - 103 games played and Melky has been in 102 of them, this for a guy who had a serious back issue last year with a team that plays on turf.  Bautista has been in 97 games but his missed games were all in a row (games 78-83) due to injuries.  This is something I recall Gaston being good with, namely getting his regulars rest throughout the season to ensure they were at full strength for September and beyond.  I recall a study that showed a day off a month is enough to help keep regulars rested (so 4 days off so far, 6 or 7 per year).

For example: 1993 - Molitor at DH mainly only missed 2 games, Olerud at 1B missed 4, no one else played more than 155.  1992 Carter missed 4 games, Winfield 6, everyone else 9+.  1991 when the Jays were knocked out in the first round we saw 162 for Carter and 161 for Alomar ... of course both hit well in that playoff though so that might kill that theory (Carter 812 OPS, Alomar 997 while Devon White who was 3rd in games played hit 826 OPS).

Hard to say if Gaston did do that on purpose, but it seemed so at the time.  It helps if you trust your bench though.  Rotating Melky and Bautista into the DH role more often would help but Melky has had just 1 game in DH, Bautista 11, with Lind leading at 29 followed by Navarro at 17 and Encarnacion at 16.  Seems Gibbons was trying to mix a few guys in there but Melky really should get rest more often I'd think despite his sOPS+ being over 100 every month.
Gerry - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#290443) #
Mark Buehrle thinks the key to the playoffs is suits.

Tweet from Marcus Stroman: Mark Buehrle is the absolute man! Awesome having a veteran presence like him on the squad. Just got all the young guys fitted for suits!


Another reason to love Buehrle, New York suits for all the rookies.
Beyonder - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#290444) #
That's no small favour for Stroman and Sanchez, who likely can't buy off the rack for different reasons.
John Northey - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#290445) #
Thinking about it I suspect once at full strength we might see more breaks...

CA: Navarro/Thole (Kratz in AAA until injuries or September)
1B: Encarnacion/Lind mix match at DH/1B
2B: Tolleson/Kawasaki sometimes Lawrie
3B: Lawrie
SS: Reyes
LF: Cabrera
CF: Rasmus
RF: Bautista
DH: Lind/Encarnacion
Bench: Francisco,Tolleson/Kawasaki, Reimold, Gose

But that gives us 14 hitters... will the Jays go with 11 pitchers for August once all are healthy?  Ideally they would but if not I suspect Gose or Kawasaki would be back in AAA.

In September you bring back Goins (defensive replacement), Gose or Kawasaki (whoever is sent down), Kratz, and Pillar or Mastroianni.  That'd be plenty of guys for the final month.

Pitching... we all know the rotation (Dickey/Buehrle, Hutchison, Happ, Stroman). 
Bullpen? Janssen, Cecil, McGowan, Loup, Redmond are locks, 6/7 slots are a mix/match though with Sanchez/Rogers/Rasmussen right now but Morrow, Delabar, Santos, Jenkins, Hendriks, Wagner all could be back for September.  Might be Gibbons dream - a 14 man bullpen plus Tolleson as emergency backup :)

So if you go to 6 in the pen it'd be Janssen/Cecil/McGowan/Loup/Redmond/Sanchez right now I'd think.  For playoffs you'd want no more than that anyways I'd think.  Rasmussen and Rogers are now easy to dump I suspect and the list of others is long.  Depends when everyone gets back I guess.  I suspect though that Rogers is up for the season now and Kawasaki or Gose will be back in AAA if everyone is healthy until September.
greenfrog - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#290446) #
"Samardzija would have helped this club, but you wouldn't want to give up the equivalent of Addison Russell to get him"

Thanks for the clarification - now I get it. This makes sense to me, but I still want to see how Samardzija does over the next season and a half. While his FIP is 4.04 in his 30 innings with Oakland, which is still not bad, his FIP in his 108 innings with the Cubs was 3.11, better than in any of his previous seasons. He has also been very durable and so far is averaging 7.5 IP per start with Oakland - an attribute that FIP doesn't measure.

A 200-220 IP AL starter with a FIP (say) in the mid to high threes, if he can get there, would be a valuable asset to have.

Plus, I always like to think six or eight deep when it comes to SPs. It's useful to have five good ones and a couple of solid depth options in reserve. I think this is in part why Oakland made the trade.
snowman - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#290448) #
Reading through this thread, there seems to be an awful lot of worry about resting players.  Are people keeping in mind that the all-star break was just last week?  Everybody just got four days off (except for the all-stars), so nobody should need to be rested after just seven games, especially when so many key players are out with injury.  Perhaps earlier in the season some rest might have been helpful, when the schedule was heavy.  But that comes back in the Jays' favour in August, when they get five off-days to keep everyone rested.  With three regulars out, I wouldn't be looking at sitting Bautista or Reyes right now, unless they're hurting.  At this point, barring minor injuries and platoons, I don't think Gibbons should be sitting any of his regulars until September.  August looks like their opportunity to have another big month, with their regular lineup back and plenty of off-days to keep everyone fresh.
Mike Green - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#290456) #
The key players who need to be rested are Cabrera and Reyes, as their performances on the field and on the basepaths attest.  You can give them partial rest by cycling them through the DH slot while Lind and Encarnacion are out. 
John Northey - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#290457) #
Good point snowman.  The Jays recent history for resting hasn't been the best, and with the injury bug going on it is food for thought.  Digging through the roster (if healthy) I see lots of players available to help when September hits although it will be hard for Gibbons to resist running his regulars into the ground then if the Jays are in contention.

Right now we get 3 in NY, 3 in Boston, then 4 in Houston before a day off.  10 straight after 7 straight.  A 17 game non-stop stretch suggests it would be a good idea to give a break to regulars if you can, but with the Yankees/Red Sox at the start it would be very hard to do so.  I suspect we'll see Bautista get a bit of DH time, and I'd like Cabrera to get some as well so both can stay fresh without being out of the lineup.  In August the Jays get at least one day a week off (all but one Thursday plus 2 Mondays) thus lots of rest for everyone.  September though has just 2 days off and ends with 17 straight including a season ending 3 game set at home vs the Orioles which could be the deciding games in the AL East (who knew?).  The massive pen depth in September should be a big asset for that schedule - one hopes Stroman and Hutchison are up for the challenge too.  The extra days off in August should help though.

So basically a DH day for each of the core guys this weekend and plans for the same in late September should do the trick for rest now.  If everyone is healthy come September it'll be a big boost as the Jays would then have the depth they want/need.  Lets cross our fingers.
Mike Green - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#290458) #
And as for Mark Buehrle taking the rooks for a fine New York suit...perfect.  He's a class act.  (Just make sure that they stay away from the pinstripes- they don't need the slimming look and you don't want to give them any ideas).
uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#290459) #
3B J.Francisco (27):

APR: 41pa, .852ops
MAY: 85pa, 1.013ops
JUN: 69pa, .587ops
JUL: 46pa, .911ops

2014: 241pa, .841ops
Career: 1012pa, .756ops

2014 vRHP: 182pa, .921ops
Career vRHP: 796pa, .809ops

2014 UZR/150 @3B: 408.1inn, -4.8
Career UZR/150 @3B: 1318.2inn, -2.8
uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#290460) #
snowman, I agree with you on the rest thing.

especially since the injuries have given these guys plenty of rest themselves.

Gerry - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#290461) #
Deck McGuire is now an Oakland A, in exchange for cash considerations.
uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#290462) #
SP M.Buehrle (35):

APR: 33.1ip, 2.16era, 3.29fip, 4.04xfip
MAY: 40.0ip, 2.48era, 3.09fip, 4.19xfip
JUN: 42.0ip, 2.79era, 4.64fip, 4.29xfip
JUL: 17.0ip, 5.29era, 3.50fip, 4.96xfip

SP R.Dickey (39):

APR: 35.1ip, 5.09era, 4.33fip, 4.84xfip
MAY: 38.0ip, 3.55era, 3.72fip, 3.83xfip
JUN: 30.2ip, 4.11era, 6.89fip, 4.10xfip
JUL: 34.0ip, 3.44era, 3.53fip, 3.94xfip
uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#290463) #
LF M.Cabrera (29):

APR: 125pa, .935ops, 158wrc+
MAY: 130pa, .735ops, 103wrc+
JUN: 118pa, .751ops, 106wrc+
JUL: 82pa, .940ops, 161wrc+

SS J.Reyes (31):

APR: 48pa, .583ops, 58wrc+
MAY: 135pa, .785ops, 117wrc+
JUN: 122pa, .717ops, 97wrc+
JUL: 87pa, .826ops, 130wrc+

C D.Navarro (30):

APR: 97pa, .729ops, 100wrc+
MAY: 79pa, .556ops, 53wrc+
JUN: 85pa, .724ops, 99wrc+
JUL: 67pa, .736ops, 101wrc+

Mike Green - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#290467) #
The reason that you rest 30 year old ballplayers in late July in the midst of 17 games in a row is not because they have performed poorly for the remainder of the month.  It is that you hope to maximize their health and performance over the remainder of the season. 

Navarro naturally gets rest for Dickey starts, and the odds are that he won't play a day game after a night game.  What Cabrera and Reyes offer a club primarily is their bats.  You can rest them by letting them DH. I don't know what is so controversial about this.  Is everybody just itching to see Reyes play shortstop or Cabrera play left field every game?  I'm not.

uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#290468) #
remember that melky has been pretty much perfectly healthy in his career other than that tumor.
Richard S.S. - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#290469) #
Just in case our standings are because who we have, A.A. must do something by the end of July. Despite who we have coming back, it might not be enough if A.A. does nothing.

We have a good infield when everyone is healthy. We still have a potential problem at 2B, that could be a concern. We also need an upgrade at backup SS as defense-only is no longer a viable option. This is necessary as our competition is upgrading there (Inf), and I don't want any opposing acquisitions to negate our advantage there.

We have a very good outfield when everyone is healthy. The only problem is they are not getting enough down-time. I've always thought that having a 4th OF,who must be at least as good as one or more regular OFs is mandatory. We might not be there yet. I just don't want any opposing acquisitions to negate our advantage there.

We have a decent Starting Staff and it still be good unless we need to deal with any inning limitations. Where as I think this team needs a Front-Line Starter, I think any acquisition must be markedly better than your two worst Starters or it's not of value. Something needs to be done here, and soon.

The Bullpen is having issues with over-work amongst other things already known. I know A.A. is looking, but all deals effect everything else. A new Starter could move a good arm into the Bullpen as I suspect Happ or Hutchison to do very well there.

I'd really like A.A. to make any acquisition now, if not sooner. Then we can evaluate any possible August acquisitions with enough lead time to do something about any issues.
snowman - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#290470) #

It's not that it's controversial, and the point about 17 straight games is well-taken.  I'm just saying, it's only been 7 games, after a 4-day break.  And they're missing a big chunk of their lineup.  If the team is serious enough about contending that the idea of trading away good young talent like Sanchez or Pompey is being considered, I think you also have to push the veterans a little, at least until the injured players start to return.  When the lineup is already depleted, it doesn't help to be sitting some of your best hitters.  It's certainly a balancing act between winning today and keeping your players fresh for the rest of the season, but I just don't think anybody should need a day off this soon, especially as they leave the turf in Toronto.  Now if they're involved in any blowouts, I'd definitely switch some players, but of course, that's not as good as a full day off.

 

All that being said, I think you're right that before the 17 games are up, both of those guys should at least get a day at DH, if not a day off altogether.  Especially while Goins is still with the team.  But if they could sweep the Yankees first...

uglyone - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#290473) #
I don't think we need to touch the batting lineup, other than maybe finding a RH hitter who can play CF.


Catcher

D.Navarro (30): 89wrc+ 2014, 101wrc+ JUL, +1.3df
J.Thole (27): 94wrc+ 2014, 161wrc+ JUL, -1.1df

Designated Hitter

A.Lind (30): 142wrc+ 2014, 44wrc+ JUL
N.Reimold (30): 178wrc+ 2014, 178wrc+ JUL

First Base

E.Encarnacion (31): 161wrc+ 2014, 144wrc+ JUL, -13.1df
N.Reimold (30): 178wrc+ 2014, 178wrc+ JUL, +0.4df

Second Base

B.Lawrie (24): 97wrc+ 2014, ---- JUL, +4.7df
S.Tolleson (30): 99wrc+ 2014, 110wrc+ JUL, +0.3df

Shortstop

J.Reyes (31): 106wrc+ 2014, 130wrc+ JUL, -2.6df
M.Kawasaki (33): 79wrc+ 2014, 75wrc+ JUL, +1.6df

Third Base

J.Francisco (27): 129wrc+ 2014, 145wrc+ JUL, -1.5df
B.Lawrie (24): 97wrc+ 2014, ---- JUL, +4.7df

Left Field

M.Cabrera (29): 129wrc+ 2014, 161wrc+ JUL, -12.3df
N.Reimold (30): 178wrc+ 2014, 178wrc+ JUL, +0.4df

Right Field

J.Bautista (33): 151wrc+ 2014, 92wrc+ JUL, -8.1df
N.Reimold (30): 178wrc+ 2014, 178wrc+ JUL, +0.4df

Center Field

C.Rasmus (27): 97wrc+ 2014, 73wrc+ JUL, -6.5df
A.Gose (23): 78wrc+ 2014, 45wrc+ JUL, +7.9df



If Reimold can stay healthy, then he does likely solve one of our bench issues, which is a righty to platoon with Lind.

I don't really see any glaring holes here. A righty CF to platoon with Rasmus would be nice, though.

Our offense, even after that horrendous slump and then all the recent injuries, has still been one of the best in baseball all year long.

I would spend what resources we have on pitching.

I'd love to add an ace reliever like Uehara, for example. Maybe two.

An ace starter would be nice too, but that'll be tough to get.
vw_fan17 - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#290481) #
Putting Reimold in at DH, 1st, LF and RF seems a bit of a stretch. Yes, he has some potential. On the other hand, his 178 OPS+ (I guess that translates to 176 wrc+?) is based on 14 PA. 14 PA. JPA looked like a keeper after his first 14 PA with the Jays too..

Reimold has played more than 50 games exactly TWICE in his career. In both cases, his OPS+, while being good, was 116 and 111. And he's 5 years removed from that 116. His career OPS+ is 105. His only two "better than 116" season lines are for this season (14 PA), and one in which he played 16 games. Honestly, I think the OPS+ of 92 from Dan Johnson (career OPS+ of 100) in 30 PA so far is a much better bet going forward for that backup spot. At least he's actually healthy and playing right now - no guarantee NR is back in a week or two or five.

I'm not saying Reimold isn't a decent/good player when the stars align and he's healthy - but it's not like he's Albert Pujols in his prime, either..

Richard S.S. - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#290484) #
New York post up already. Surprise!
snowman - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#290486) #
I don't think anybody believes Reimold is a 178 OPS+ guy over a full season, if he were to play one.  But there are an awful lot of lefties in this lineup.  Which is great when you're facing righty starters.  But a lefty starter, or a good LOOGY, really leaves the Jays at a disadvantage.  Hopefully they won't see too many before they get Encarnacion, Reimold, and Lawrie back.
92-93 - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#290490) #
"New York post up already. Surprise!"

Magpie always steps up to the plate for a Yankees series.
greenfrog - Friday, July 25 2014 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#290491) #
"Deck McGuire is now an Oakland A, in exchange for cash considerations."

Brad Mills, Deck McGuire...what's going on? Probably after the A's struck gold with Jesse Chavez (and after almost snagging EE when the Jays initially released him), they decided to look long and hard at every Jays retread. Hopefully the Jays haven't acquired the reputation of an organization that can acquire talent, but has trouble developing it.
Blue Jays DFA Santos, Get Ready for Red Sox | 326 comments | Create New Account
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