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The Toronto Blue Jays open up a four game series in Oakland. This is the beginning of a 10-game road trip that will swing through Anaheim and Tampa Bay.

R.A. Dickey gets the call for tonight's game at O.co Coliseum.


The Oakland Athletics have the best record in the majors at 51-33, giving them a 3.5 game lead over the Angels and 4.5 over the Mariners. The A's return home from an eight-game road trip that saw them split two against the Mets and sweep the Marlins before being swept by the Tigers. The Jays finished up a 5-4 homestand after sweeping a pair against Milwaukee.

Series Schedule & Probable Starters...


Thursday at 9:05 pm ET - R.A. Dickey (6-7, 4.24) vs. Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.20)>
Friday at 4:05 pm ET - Marcus Stroman (4-2, 4.01) vs. Tommy Milone (6-3, 3.79)
Saturday at 10:05 pm ET - Mark Buehrle (10-5, 2.50) vs. Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.61).
Sunday at 4:05 pm ET - Drew Hutchison (6-6, 3.81) vs. Brad Mills (1-1, 4.41).

Tonight's Lineup...
  1. Reyes, SS
  2. Cabrera, RF
  3. Bautista, DH
  4. Encarnacion, LF
  5. Lind, 1B
  6. Francisco, 3B
  7. Kawasaki, 2B
  8. Gose, CF
  9. Thole, C
Jays vs A's - July 3-6 | 159 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
grjas - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#289367) #
I hope everyone on this site has voted for EE in mlb.com for the AS game. Doesn't take long and it is pathetic how few votes he has. Deadline is midnight tonight.
Magpie - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#289368) #
Pretty sure Oakland's going to get hosed. They get two outs easily if the first base umpire doesn't miss a tag five feet in front of himm.
Magpie - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#289369) #
Yup. Totally hosed!
soupman - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#289370) #
i bet the league, and the umps are hoping this doesn't end up impacting the eventual outcome.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#289371) #
Somewhere in the replay rule, there ought to be a "detrimental reliance" exception.  If the players on the field have relied on a call made on the field even if wrong, there ought to be residual discretion to do the right thing (i.e. in this case, treat it as "no tag" and a force at the plate). 
Paul D - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#289372) #
Well this is pretty wacky (as are the start times to the games in this series).
soupman - Thursday, July 03 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#289373) #
i don't think that's actually the right call, though. kawasaki was out, and ee was dead to rights either way - should have been an inning ending double play, imo.
ogator - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 06:39 AM EDT (#289375) #
"Detrimental reliance"? I completely agree but when I was in Little League, nobody told me that was what it was called.
laketrout - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#289376) #
Being a former outfielder, wouldn't Lind have been the better (and I use that relatively) choice in the outfield as opposed to Encarnacion?

Career outfield:
Encarnacion - 32 innings
Lind - 1858 innings

Gerry - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#289377) #
Lind was having trouble running last night.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#289380) #
True, Gerry, but I wasn't sure if the pad he was wearing on his foot while batting was impeding his running ability.  The pad is probably there for protective purposes.  He took it off after he hit the double and I didn't see him run after that.

The Bautista to DH, Encarnacion to LF move had some consequences last night.  Vogt's ball over Encarnacion's head would probably have been caught by an experienced and good defensive left-fielder.  Edwin understandably took a very poor route. A healthy Bautista would like have beaten the throw on the ball he hit down the line to Callaspo (because of Callaspo's hesitation).

I imagine that with the left-handers starting the next 3 games, we'll see Bautista at DH and Encarnacion at first base. 



Beyonder - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#289382) #
I promise you all, you do not want umpires in the course of a game reconstructing plays an the basis of "detrimental reliance" and what they think would have happened in an alternate universe in which they had made the correct call initially. That way madness lies. It is the lesser of two evils to have the umpires call the play as it actually happened. That way the players can to use another legal expression MG "govern themselves accordingly".

I was not in favour of replay when it was being debated, and I am not in favour of it now that it seems to add ten (boring) minutes to every game, and inevitably creates absurd situations like last night's.
budgell - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#289383) #

While understanding that a win in April is as valuable as a win in September I'd prefer that instant replay only be used in say, the last 20 games of the regular season and the post season. 

Bad calls have a way of evening themselves out over 142 games.

Maldoff - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#289384) #
The second inning last night is the one that really sticks out to me. Runners on second and third with none out. In my mind, that needs to be two runs scored. Getting only one (and cheaply so) was a disappointment and set the tone for the game for the Jays.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#289385) #
I promise you all, you do not want umpires in the course of a game reconstructing plays an the basis of "detrimental reliance" and what they think would have happened in an alternate universe in which they had made the correct call initially

That's not what detrimental reliance means, beyonder.  It means that the players relied as the play unfolded on the incorrect call on the field by the 1st base umpire (that no tag had been made and therefore the force was on at home).  Therefore, Vogt did not attempt a tag and Encarnacion did not attempt to slide or evade a tag.  The fair thing to do was to leave the play as originally called, but it seems that the rule book did not allow that. 
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#289386) #
I promise you all, you do not want umpires in the course of a game reconstructing plays an the basis of "detrimental reliance" and what they think would have happened in an alternate universe in which they had made the correct call initially. That way madness lies.

One of the most memorable photos used in Ken Burns' series is of fans, players and umpires gathered around a base arguing a call on the field before fans were barred from the field. I think a healthy argument every once in while on the doctrine of estoppel and its constituent elements would advance the quality of the game considerably. I'd be most interested in hearing the broadcasters report the argument for the fans. I'm joking of course. As Mike may have been too.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#289387) #
I wasn't joking.  The point was that if you are going to have replay review, the replay reviewers ought to have some discretion in cases like this one. 
Beyonder - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#289388) #
Thats my point MG. You seem to be suggesting that umpires should try to look past what actually happened on the field, and inferring what would have happened if the correct call had been made initially. In situations like yesterday's, that might be a simple rule to apply. But what about in closer situations? What if there had been some question as to whether Vogt could have applied the tag in time? What if the runner home slowed down because he understood that the force was on and he had no chance of beating it? Should the umpire speed up the runner? Should the umpire try to recreate a bang-bang play that never happened?

The replay rule was put in place to eliminate some of the subjective unfairness from the game. A detrimental reliance rule would inject far more uncertainty into the game.

Leaving the play as (incorrectly) called would defeat the purpose of having replay.
Paul D - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#289389) #
I'm having some trouble posting in Chrome, but there's an article on mlbtraderumors which suggests that the Jays are looking at Frenchy. He's put up what I'd call uninspiring numbers in the PCL.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#289391) #
You seem to be suggesting that umpires should try to look past what actually happened on the field, and inferring what would have happened if the correct call had been made initially

That's not what I said, beyonder.  Read it again, please.  Replay reviewers ought to have the discretion to look at exactly what happened on the field.  If the incorrect call had no effect on what the players on the field subsequently did (in probably 98% of cases), the replay reviewers job would simply be to make the correct call.  In this case, what actually happened on the field was fairer than what occurred by reversing the incorrect all and required no inference about what Vogt and Encarnacion would do (which is what would happen if the replay reviewers inferred the double play- this is something that I think the replay reviewers should not do). 
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#289396) #
Yeah, the Francoeur to Toronto rumour is what I hope is a non-story.  297/325/485 would be very nice ML numbers but in the PCL they are not that impressive.  As depth in Buffalo? Sure, why not.  But in the majors? I'd need to see a lot better numbers than that.

For pitching rumours the Jays seem to be following Hammel as much as they follow Samardzija.  I like Hammel's numbers better  (1.8 BB/9 vs 8.5 K/9 0.8 HR/9) but like Samardzija has a mediocre lifetime ERA+ (96 vs 101).  Hammel did pitch in Baltimore for a couple years with a 98 ERA+.  He also fits what AA said he is looking for - a pure 2014 rental (free agent once season ends) thus should be cheaper as Samardzija is in arbitration for 2015 and free agent after that.  Still, neither is an ace or even what I'd call a solid #2. 
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#289397) #
An interesting thing about the rotation...
June ERA's: Sub 3 - Buehrle & Stroman, 4.1 to 4.6 Dickey/Hutch/Happ. 

In July Dickey & Hutch had very solid starts (2 & 1 ER respectively) with 7+ IP.  Happ had 7 IP but 4 ER allowed but it was a very good start (6 H 0 BB) just bad luck.

So that suggests the 5 men in the rotation right now are all solid.  I'd only go for someone of ace quality (Price or someone like that) as the rotation seems fairly solid right now and we have Morrow to deal with at some point.

Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#289398) #
I wonder what the Cubs would want for Hammel.  At this point, they lose the right to make a QO if they trade him.  Hammel might have an incremental value of 1/2 win over the remainder of the season compared with Happ, but it's the kind of season where that might matter. 

I still think that a second baseman is a higher priority.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#289399) #
I'm with Mike. Once a call's been made and the play continues, everything the players do is in reaction to that call; you can't expect them to react to the call on the field while also anticipating every replay contingency.

It's similar to a whistle going off in other sports, isn't it? Let's say there's an offside call in hockey but the guy keeps skating in and finally slaps the puck into the net while the goalie's barely paying attention. You can't review the offside call and have the goal count. I mean, you literally can't review the offside call. There are certain situations where replay just doesn't work, and maybe, as Mike argues, you just have to let those plays stand, even when the call's wrong. Not the end of the world if you do.

There's one other situation in baseball that might be similar to last night's predicament, and that's a trapped ball that's called an out. Unless there's a special rule to deal with that one, I don't know what you'd do if, say, the batter sees the out call and stops running and turns back to the dugout, only to have the call eventually overturned. On the one hand, I suppose teams just tell their batters to keep running on anything that could be overturned. On the other hand, what if the guy really does just keep running while the outfielder, say, nonchalantly jogs back to the dugout thinking it's the 3rd out? That could be a bit of a doozy. And that's saying nothing of how runners already on base are supposed to react. Last night, apparently the Oakland catcher was supposed to act as if Kawasaki had been called both safe and out, so I suppose in the scenario I've outlined, the runners are supposed to act as if it's both an out and a hit? What if runners go back to their bases -- 1st and 2nd, let's say -- after seeing the out called and meanwhile the other team throws it around the horn? Are they seriously going to review things on replay and call that a triple play? No way, you'd think. But that was the logic used last night.
smcs - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#289400) #
Francoeur might not be able to hit anymore, but he did give us On Jeff Ears.
Beyonder - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#289402) #
MG. You can't decide whether "the incorrect call had no effect on what the players on the field subsequently did" without making a subjective judgment about what otherwise would have happened absent the incorrect call.

If you let umpires (or replay review people) make those judgments, there will be some cases where the answer is easy (in yesterday's example, it seems pretty obvious that the runner would shave been tagged but for the incorrect call), while other cases will be far less obvious ("trapped ball" cases are the paradigmatic example). In this context "Residual discretion" is a euphemism for the reviewer's whim.

Baseball is pretty much unique among the major sports in the sense that in hockey, football, or basketball, once the whistle blows, the play is dead. Only in baseball do you see multiple "calls" in the course of a single play (hockey has some exceptions re: icing and penalties), each of which effects the next.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#289404) #
If you let umpires (or replay review people) make those judgments, there will be some cases where the answer is easy (in yesterday's example, it seems pretty obvious that the runner would shave been tagged but for the incorrect call), while other cases will be far less obvious ("trapped ball" cases are the paradigmatic example). In this context "Residual discretion" is a euphemism for the reviewer's whim.

I'll try one last time.  I am not saying that the reviewers should make a judgment that Encarnacion would have been tagged by Vogt had the 1st base umpire made the correct call, and rule that both Encarnacion and Kawasaki were out.  I am saying that both Encarnacion and Vogt relied on the 1st base umpire's incorrect call and relying on that call, Encarnacion was in fact out at the plate on the force play.  It is fairer to rely on what actually occurred on the field than to substitute the correct call on the tag play at first base for the incorrect one.  There is nothing whimsical about it. 
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#289405) #
Glenn in right-field, Mastroianni in centerfield for today's game against the left-hander Milone.  I guess Rasmus' wrist is still an issue.  Milone has significant reverse splits over his career.
Spifficus - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#289406) #

So, taking it to an extreme, there shouldn't be reviews on mid-sequence plays at all, since the call influences the rest of the play. I'm not a fan of that, because that means the availability of a review is context based.

To me, MLB already implies (through much reading-between-lines) that the play should go all the way through via their request that players stay on the field for an inning-ending contested call. They're effectively saying that things aren't done yet, so hang tight. It'd be nice if they codified it, though.

Spifficus - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#289407) #
Section IV of the replay rules are an interesting read. It looks like what I wanted was codified. Section IV says "if Replay Review results in a change to a call that had been made on the field, the Replay Official, to the extent feasible, shall exercise his discretion to place both Clubs in the same position they would have been in had the call on the field been correct." Also included is IV A 6, which says that Melvin probably could have been ejected for arguing the placement of runners or whether they were safe or out once it was decided. He was obviously give a wee bit of leeway due to the bizarre nature of the play.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#289408) #
Not exactly, spifficus.  The rule would allow the replay official to determine that Vogt would likely have tagged Encarnacion out, and call them both out.  It's not a good rule.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#289409) #
"An interesting thing about the rotation...
June ERA's: Sub 3 - Buehrle & Stroman, 4.1 to 4.6 Dickey/Hutch/Happ.

In July Dickey & Hutch had very solid starts (2 & 1 ER respectively) with 7+ IP. Happ had 7 IP but 4 ER allowed but it was a very good start (6 H 0 BB) just bad luck.

So that suggests the 5 men in the rotation right now are all solid. I'd only go for someone of ace quality (Price or someone like that) as the rotation seems fairly solid right now and we have Morrow to deal with at some point."



Yep, 100% this.

Thing i like to do is average out all four of era, fip, xfip, siera to iron out the flaws and magically come up with a better number to show us how well they've actually pitched so far.

As SP:

Stroman: 6gs, 6.1ip/gs, 3.10avg
Buehrle: 17gs, 6.8ip/gs, 3.69avg
Hutch: 17gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.83avg
Dickey: 18gs, 6.2ip/gs, 4.32avg
Happ: 12gs, 5.6ip/gs, 4.16avg

And the last two years combined:

Stroman: 6gs, 6.1ip/gs, 3.10avg
Buehrle: 50gs, 6.4ip/gs, 3.96avg
Hutch: 17gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.83avg
Dickey: 52gs, 6.5ip/gs, 4.29avg
Happ: 30gs, 5.4ip/gs, 4.40avg

Its a solid rotation, and not a gaping hole to fill.

uglyone - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#289410) #
Francouer does have a career .800ops and 105wrc+ v LHP, at least. Though in recent years he's been just as crappy vs either hand.

In the minors this year he's hitting lefties for an .870ops, which is good but not anything too special.
Beyonder - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#289411) #
I understand you Mike. But I think that a rule that permits a reviewer to utilize their "residual discretion" to ignore an incorrect call in situations where they deem it to be "fair" is the epitome of whimsical. Also, in many cases you will have no idea whether the players "relied" on the incorrect call, unless you are some sort of mind-reader.
Maldoff - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#289412) #
Cecil activated, Gose sent down.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#289413) #
I understand you Mike. But I think that a rule that permits a reviewer to utilize their "residual discretion" to ignore an incorrect call in situations where they deem it to be "fair" is the epitome of whimsical. Also, in many cases you will have no idea whether the players "relied" on the incorrect call, unless you are some sort of mind-reader.

Sure.  I can see that.  This was one of those cases where it was clear that Vogt and Encarnacion acted as if they relied on the call.  It happens rarely, I'll concede.
Mike Green - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#289415) #
Stroman may not have a hook like Tom Gordon did, but it is now definitely useful.
#2JBrumfield - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#289416) #
MLBTradeRumours.com says the Jays are looking to an old friend in Arizona as a solution to the second base problem.
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#289417) #
Wow did Hill fall off a cliff this year.  After a 133 and 124 OPS+ the past 2 years he has hit 248/285/368 so far this year (age 32).  His UZR/150 rating has been negative both last year and this year too (-3.7 UZR/150 this year).  Mix in being owed $12 mil a year for 2015 and 2016 and the Jays would be nuts to trade for him unless Arizona ate almost all of that.  Martin Prado is also on the rumour list - at 3B for Arizona, 88 OPS+ so not any great shakes either.  Age 30, lifetime 107 OPS+ but owed $11 mil a year for the next 2 years as well. Ugh. Chase Headley is the other guy listed, at 3B for San Diego with a 77 OPS+ but lifetime 113 (age 30).  He is a free agent after this year so since he wouldn't be getting a qualifying offer he'd be fairly cheap to get at least.  A switch hitter who has hit a little better vs RHP but not drastic (lifetime 767 OPS vs RHP vs 722 vs LHP).

Very underwhelmed by those 3 choices.  Cool as getting Hill back would be, it wouldn't be so good if he hits like he has so far this year.  Especially with that contract.
Magpie - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#289418) #
He took it off after he hit the double and I didn't see [Lind] run after that.

Well, I saw him go hobbling down to first like there was a rather sharp stone in his shoe...
dan gordon - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#289419) #
Regarding Hill, he has also benefitted from playing in a great hitters' park in Arizona, so factor that into his stats as well.
soupman - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#289420) #
Encarnacion was committed to going home whether there was a force or not.

Vogt didn't try for the tag at all. Since it was only a force if Kawasaki was safe (the call on the field in front of his face), he didn't need to attempt to tag the runner (who it bears remembering was about 3 steps away from the plate when the ball arrived).

The best case scenario for EE is that he can throw on the brakes and force an errant throw after getting into a rundown.

It's not about mind reading - but that's what 95% of the time would have happened: inning ending double play.

Replay is the kink that makes any decision less than ideal because i agree: we don't want umps determining what "would have happened" even if I'm right and the likely outcome could be predicted 95/100 or better.
Magpie - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#289421) #
I kept thinking last night that the fairest solution was to somehow call the play dead from the moment the call was blown. Kawasaki is out, but Encarnacion neither scores nor is out at home. He's still on third. Gose reaches on a fielder's choice, which probably wouldn't have happened. If the umpire had made the right call last night, there's would not have been a throw home - two quick steps to get Gose at first for the DP. It's a King Solomon type of solution. Probably pretty hard to codify it, however.
Paul D - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#289422) #
Ouch.  Glenn's never going to get a hit if anything close to the zone is called a strike on him.
Hodgie - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#289424) #
Just putting this out there, but Stroman is currently our best starting pitcher and I am not sure it is even close at the moment.
grjas - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#289425) #
Just putting this out there, but Stroman is currently our best starting pitcher and I am not sure it is even close at the moment.

Yeah and I suspect he'll convince the team that they don't need another SP at the trade deadline. Hopefully they can find a second baseman who can hit and a bench player to hit lefties. The lineup has been pretty poor for a lot of the last 6 weeks now, so may be some new blood would help.
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#289426) #
Lots of fun. Seems like all our starters are going 7+ lately.  Janssen and Loup are the only guys slightly tired in the pen, thanks to that complete game by Dickey.  Perfect day for extra innings.
Chuck - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#289427) #
Pillar, Mastroianni and Glenn are a combined 11 for 63 this year. There's a job there for any of the three who can take it.
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#289428) #
Hmm... lets see....
Today: Stroman 7 IP
Yesterday: Dickey CG
Then... Happ 7, Hutch 7 IP, Buehrle 8, Stroman 6 2/3, Dickey 6, Happ 7 2/3, Hutch 6, Buehrle 6 2/3, Stroman 8, Dickey 7 2/3, Happ 4 (June 21st).

So since June 21st we've seen 12 straight games of 6+ IP for the starters.  5 straight 7+.  Now if they'd just start winning those games a bit more often... (2-2 the past 4 before today, 5-6 the past 11 before today 47-40 for runs scored/allowed).
dan gordon - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#289429) #
McGowan combined 2013 and 2014 as a reliever only, after today's game: 45 2/3 IP, WHIP 1.051, ERA 2.17, 41 K's
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#289430) #
"Just putting this out there, but Stroman is currently our best starting pitcher and I am not sure it is even close at the moment."

I'll just add that this would be true of stroman on most any team at the moment, not just the jays.


And i'll also add on hill that while he's been horrific vs rhp this year, he's been acceptable vs LHP with a 103wrc+.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#289432) #
A's land Shark and Hammel for Russel, per Rosenthal. Love that the A's are going for it, and Samardzija will come in handy next year.

Let's see who's in the final deal, though.
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#289433) #
Wow.  Just a major wow.  The two big pitchers for a 20 year old SS in AA (939 OPS in 57 PA, 909 lifetime OPS in minors over 836 PA).  Others involved as well (at least 2 more prospects).

I wouldn't do that trade myself, but the A's have a short window as always before the team is too expensive and a rebuild happens again.  Guess Brad Mills is out of the rotation after 3 starts, and probably Tommy Milone (5.5 K/9 is lowest of the rotation, 101 ERA+ also lowest).  The rotation wasn't their big weakness so far.  Heck, their team ERA+ is 118.  Wonder if this is leading to them doing a second trade to improve at 2B, DH, RF as those are their weaknesses.  Could they do a flip to the Jays of someone to get Lind or Francisco or Cabrera or someone?  Doubtful, but an interesting thought.
dan gordon - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#289434) #
Billy McKinney and Dan Straily also going to the Cubs along with Russell. Two very high ranked prospects and a young pitcher who had a 3.96 ERA last year. Russell and McKinney are the A's 2 top prospects.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#289435) #
The A's will likely get a draft pick for Samardzija after 2015, which could net them a prospect similar to McKinney (the 24th overall pick in the 2013 draft), so there's that as well.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2014 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#289436) #
That trade is all about russell. Maybe not a superstud prospect but an A prospect that ranked from 7th to 14th as a 20yr old on the preseason lists.

Imo, giving up that kind of prospect for a non-ace is a mistake, but then again russell is not a surefire stud so its not crazy.

To match that the jays would probably have had to give up 2 of sanchez norris pompey, and i don't think shark is the stud you'd want for that.

The Rays must be kicking thenselves, though - a kid like russell is probably exactly what they wanted for price, and i'm not sure any other teams have a kid like that to offer.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#289437) #
Beane can always go get himself more prospects. This deal gives him the pieces to make a run at the WS this year and next. It's hard to find good, cheap pitching.

I can see the trade from the Cubs' point of view as well, and Epstein has made some nice moves (Rizzo, for example). He has certainly stockpiled a lot of promising prospects. But Beane's track record of ML success speaks for itself. It will be fun to see how this one plays out. And, of course, there is the possibility that the trade works out well for both sides.
1990Jays - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#289438) #
they traded valuable assets to turn a 97 win team into a 99 win team, those 2-3 extra wins are utterly inconsequential. Samardjzia can help them next year so you might justify it on those grounds but this does nothing for them this year, they're already the best team in Baseball and there's very little to be gained by adding on a couple of wins.
soupman - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 03:17 AM EDT (#289439) #
i don't think the jays need an ace to get into the playoffs, but, i think the idiom that pitching wins in the playoffs is more true than fantasy. (i don't have any good source saying the contrary - so i'd be happy to be out to lunch on that).

what i'm getting at is, their rotation until today included brad mills and jesse chavez from the depths of the jays top 30 prospect lists of years past...the a's certainly have a recipe that gets them to the playoff doors, but with this move, they have a guy they're going to look to shut the door 2- 3 times in a series...

that would be my read on it. and again, it makes sense to me. i'm glad the jays didn't sell the farm, but that's more because i don't think JS is "the guy" than because i am over-valuing pitching prospects (tinstaapp)
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#289441) #
those 2-3 extra wins are utterly inconsequential

This is more about the post-season. But it's also about the fact that Sonny Gray and Jesse Chavez have never thrown 100 IP in a ML season before this year, and that Scott Kazmir hasn't qualified for the ERA title since 2007. I'd be nervous about taking those guys into September and beyond.
Chuck - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#289442) #
This is more about the post-season.

Totally agree. Things are going well now for the starting pitchers, but come playoff time, it may be a different story. Lots can go wrong between now and then with this particular assemblage. Better to have numerous options on hand.

grjas - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#289443) #
Watching the "little leaguer" fill-ins at the bottom of our lineup is a painful reminder of how poor our drafting and development of position players has been for decades. None of our current position players (save Lind part time) came up through our system. In the last 20 years, we've seen Delgado, Rios and Hill and little else. Compare that to the teams of our winning years where guys like Bell, Barfield, Fernandez, Shaker, Crime Dog, Olerud, etc. were the foundation of the team. Even now there are only a few with real potential above the low minors.

We can't really forever on FA's, flipping pitchers and raw luck (JB and EE) to populate the field. And we are currently paying heavily for this "strategy. "
Gerry - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#289444) #
This trade shows the value of prospects. There have been rumours that the Jays needed to trade three prospects just for Samardjia. The Cubs took two prospects for two pitchers. Its almost Russell straight up for Samardjia and McKinney for Hammel. Sanchez and Stroman were not rated as high as Russell but you wouldn't need to trade both of them plus just to get Samardjia.
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#289445) #
The Cubs took two prospects for two pitchers.

Two prospects plus a 25 year old RH, with a 13-11, 4.11 career mark in the majors who goes into their rotation right now.
Gerry - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#289446) #
Jon Morosi says the Jays are targeting Martin Prado rather than Aaron Hill because of Prado's positional flexibility.
bpoz - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#289447) #
Looks like a good trade for both teams. The A's have to try to go for it.
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#289448) #
Shark: 4.02era as SP career, 4.34 last year, 5.45 last month
Hammel: 4.68era as SP career, 4.97 last year, 3.45 last month

Pretty big gamble by Beane here.

And magpie, straily's career era looks nice, but that comes with fip and xfip near 5, a 4.93era in the bigs this year and a 4.71era in AAA, which isn't surprising for a guy who has trouble cracking 90 on the gun.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#289449) #
Neither Prado or Hill excite me, though I prefer Prado because of positional flexibility & he's a younger - If this trade occurs, do the jays have the ability to absorb the salary or do the Diamondbacks kick in money for better prospects?

A's price for Samardjiza/Hammel seems reasonable as the A's will likely recoup a draft pick for Samardjiza (or trade him as their injured pitchers return next yr.) and in Daniel Robertson a quality SS prospect.

I wonder if the high price AA paid in the Dickey & Reyes trades (esp. considering the contracts they back from Miami)has caused teams to make high prospect demands from the Jays?
finch - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#289451) #
Russell is a legit SS prospect but I think a package of Sanchez, Norris, and Pompey was more rich. Clearly Theo was trying to extract a ransom for the Jays, probably based on AA's history of trading a lot of prospects (Astros, Mets, Marlins).

I like Prado on this team because he can play multiple positions. Would I give up Aaron Sanchez? Yes BUT I need not only Prado, but also Brandon McCarthy and AJ Pollock. I realize the Jays would need to throw in another prospect of two but I would only offer prospects below High A like Alberto Tirado etc.
PeterG - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#289455) #
Jays won't have to give up top prospects to get Prado.....Rasmus and a lower level prospect works, I think  Maybe Pillar is available as well?.  Snakes take Rasmus so Jays don't add much to 2014 budget but for them they get rid of Prado's unwanted salary for 2 additional years.
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#289456) #
Rasmus for prado is a huge downgrade.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#289458) #
How often do you have three sharks involved in a trade?

I understand both sides of the deal, but I like Epstein's side better.  Addison Russell is a great prospect.  The Cubs are going to be very, very good in about 2 years at the maximum.

Gerry - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#289459) #
The Jays have claimed Cole Gillespie from the Marlins and DFA'd Kenny Wilson (again).
Chuck - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#289460) #
DFA'd Kenny Wilson (again)

Oh my God. They've killed Kenny (again).

Hodgie - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#289461) #
The Cubs are going to be very, very good in about 2 years at the maximum.

That could be true Mike, or they could turn out to be the Royals. Funny thing about can't miss prospects, a lot of them still seem to miss. That and they will actually need someone to pitch for them eventually.

PeterG - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#289462) #
But Rasmus will not be coming back.....99.5 % imo
scottt - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#289463) #
Pomeranz does not break his hand hitting a chair and this trade does not happen.

I wonder where he fits in his team plans now that they lost a first round pick to replace him.

Overall, it seems like a panic move. The As have been doing fine. Their problem is that LA and Seattle have been doing well too. Oakland lost some ground in May when they were swept on the road. Other than that they are winning at a .650 clip or better and it's hard to get incrementally better at that level.

No Brad Mills on Sunday, that's for sure.

Mike Green - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#289464) #
That could be true Mike, or they could turn out to be the Royals

It's not only the prospects; it's the GM and the money. 
Hodgie - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#289465) #
Fair enough Mike, but without a lot of those prospects being exactly as advertised the Cubbies will need to spend like the Yankees. Their MLB roster now consists of Rizzo, Castro and Arrieta if he has in fact turned a corner.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#289466) #
It's all very subjective, I know.  I didn't think that highly of the Royals' prospects at the time.  The current Cub prospects are a whole other story (to me at least).  I guess at one point Moustakas was thought to be a power prospect similar to Bryant is now.   I don't see that he was.
Ron - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#289467) #
I wonder if there's any chance the Nationals would trade Bryce Harper in the off-season. He doesn't get along with the Manager and one of the local writers at the Post is trying his best to run him out of town. Harper was benched earlier this season for not running hard to first base after hitting a weak groundball. Werth did the same thing after the Harper incident and he wasn't benched by Williams. I'm guessing the trade offer would have to start with Stroman. Now of course I see 2 potential roadblocks: 1) The Nationals would likely never trade somebody as talented as Harper 2) Harper's agent is Scott Boras. The Jays generally avoid Boras clients. I believe the last Boras client to put on a Jays uniform is Scott Schoeneweis.



Chuck - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#289468) #
Overall, it seems like a panic move.

One can certainly argue whether they got fair value, but I see this trade as less reactive than proactive. Oakland has good reason to be suspicious about their rotation, success to this point notwithstanding, and are preparing for potential setbacks.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#289469) #
Shark: 4.02era as SP career, 4.34 last year, 5.45 last month

I'm confused - Samardzija is 29 and in his third season as a starting pitcher (83 career starts total). He has a 135 ERA+ this year and is currently on pace for 208 IP, 191 H, 14 HR, 60 BB, 199 K. His K rate is at his career average (8.6/9 IP), while his walk rate is 2.6/9 IP (compared to 3.6/9 IP in his career). His GB% this year is up (52.5% compared to 45.9% career).

Also, his FIP over the last three years has been 3.55, 3.77, 3.07 - a fair bit lower than his career 3.97 ERA in the majors.

In other words, he has been durable and quite high-performing. He's in his prime, he's only in his third year of starting, and his component stats are better than ever. His salary is low ($5.435M this year). He's controllable through 2015. In the big picture, there seems to be a lot to like here.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#289472) #
Look for a middle aged guy with a Jays hat and a little girl sitting 5th row down the 1st base line.. We're leaving for the game in a few minutes.. :-)
JB21 - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#289473) #
Tweet the SN people and they'll put you on TV. They love showing traveling Jays fans.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#289476) #
Reyes' failure to tag up on that short fly was weird.  I have no idea what he was thinking.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#289477) #
Nightmare city.  You know when you hear "pinch-running Adam LInd" on the PA that things are desperate.
JB21 - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#289478) #
This is depressing.
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#289479) #
You know when you hear "pinch-running Adam LInd"

No one's ever heard it before. First pinch-running appearance of Lind's career.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#289480) #
Reyes seems to be sleep-walking today. 
dan gordon - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#289481) #
Quad strain for EE
JB21 - Saturday, July 05 2014 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#289482) #
I thought for sure it was his hammy. I did mine in pretty good about a month ago going first to third and cringe whenever I see somebody flying around the bases. Probably good news it was his quad.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#289483) #
Don't think that was clear enough to overturn the call on the field.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#289484) #
A little reckless sending the runner in that situation (with the tying run in scoring position) - aggressive baserunning doesn't work nearly as well against good defensive teams.
JB21 - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#289485) #
I don't get the not clear enough to overturn the call line. Regardless of the call the Umps in NYC who look at the replay should make the best cal possible using the replays that are given to them. I don't see how they could say he was out after watching those replays.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 01:30 AM EDT (#289486) #
A little reckless sending the runner in that situation

Was there a lefty warming in the A's pen at the time? If so (and I'd assume there was), I think you have to take a chance there rather than depending on Lind to come through against a lefty.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 03:55 AM EDT (#289488) #
I've been saying all season that the Jays need to be giving adequate rest to their star players to keep them fresh and reduce the likelihood of injury. The lack of depth, the weakness at 2B, and the consequent "pedal to the medal" approach with these players seems to be catching up to the Jays, who are clearly reeling.

Interesting that since last season, the Jays have gone with the status quo in the rotation (albeit with a nice boost from their internal options), while the A's have now added Kazmir, and Hammel (basically, an excellent 2/3/4 trio).
greenfrog - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 03:56 AM EDT (#289489) #
Kazmir, Samardzija and Hammel
Mike Green - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#289490) #
If a quad strain is all that it is, I'll be doing cartwheels.  I thought that he had popped an ACL or a MCL when I saw it, and Encarnacion did hear a pop apparently. 

It was an injury associated with Encarnacion pushing himself to the absolute end of his ability.  I didn't think that he would beat the play at first, but he gave it his all.  You have to admire him.   When he arrived here, he was a struggling third baseman and he has become a disciplined and determined first baseman/DH. 

Oddly, the Jays may catch a break facing Samardzija.  This will give the left-handed hitters who would be in the lineup anyways (Lind, Rasmus, Francisco), a chance to pick up the club after a nasty spate of injuries. 

uglyone - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#289491) #
"'m confused - Samardzija is 29 and in his third season as a starting pitcher (83 career starts total). He has a 135 ERA+ this year and is currently on pace for 208 IP, 191 H, 14 HR, 60 BB, 199 K. His K rate is at his career average (8.6/9 IP), while his walk rate is 2.6/9 IP (compared to 3.6/9 IP in his career). His GB% this year is up (52.5% compared to 45.9% career)."

Solid pitcher, but probabky not an ace or even a lock to be significantly above average, imo. And russell was worth an ace in a trade.

As an SP in his career, shark has a 4.01era and 3.72fip - solid numbers, but more mid rotation numbers. His 3.46xfip and 3.56siera are more impressive, but they may just be ignoring that shark just might give up more gopher balls than average.

And of course, these numbers are all in the NL. If they're boosted a quarter of a run with the league switch then his numbers look more like 4.25era, 4.00fip, 3.75xfip, 3.75siera which is definitely mid rotation stuff.

He may be as good as his career xfip/siera say he is, and thus worth a kid like russell in a trade, but that's far from a guarantee, imo.
Thomas - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#289492) #
Brandon McCarthy's now off the market. The Yankees acquired him for Vidal Nuno, with the Diamondbacks eating cash in the deal.

McCarthy's got a terrible ERA this year, but the advanced metrics suggest it should significantly lower.
Dewey - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#289493) #
greenfrog, it’s “pedal to the metal”.  Thought you’d want to know.

And Mike, I agree about EE.  When he arrived, I thought he was a bit of a sulker and potential malcontent.  But his team play and determination have won me over completely.  Good man all round.
Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#289494) #
Oddly, the Jays may catch a break facing Samardzija.

Indeed, especially if EE can't go. Talk about a team vulnerable to LHP.

JB21 - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#289495) #
Jays claim Nolan Reimold off of waivers who I always have felt (if healthy) can hit. Maybe that's because I only saw him hit off of Jays pitching? Anyways, a solid option versus leftys in my opinion.
Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#289496) #
Jays claim Nolan Reimold off of waivers who I always have felt (if healthy) can hit.

You were not alone. The Orioles felt the same way. The trouble is that pesky, little "if healthy" qualifier.

PeterG - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#289497) #
He seemed healthy in his AA rehab...worth a try.

Thinking that Pillar now available to other clubs as part of a deal.
uglyone - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#289499) #
worth a shot. More of an average hitter if healthy than a great one, with probably a better rep than he deserved based on actual production, but we could use an average to slightly above hitter for our bench, so this can't hurt. His nice stint in AAA this year is encouraging too.

Reimold can't play any defense, though. He's not only awful in the field, but we wouldn't want to risk injuring him again anyways. He's purely a hitter, a guy who can fill in for Lind vs. LHP and pinch hit. Maybe if he can learn how to play 1B he could fill in there in a pinch.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#289500) #
It's not only the prospects; it's the GM and the money.

In every mid-season trade period, it's either "too early to start or to late to make a difference" - a G.M.'s words.

In the outfield, we have Bautista, Rasmus and Cabrera. All three need more rest than playing the 162 A.A. hopes they can. No one we have, anywhere in the system is even close to their equal. (Alfonso Soriano was DFA'd). A.A. never considers needing anyone good as fourth OF except CHEAP in-house solutions.

On the Infield, we have Encarnacion, ???, Reyes, Lawrie, Navarro and Lind. The "making-do" at 2B is getting really-old. We don't have options at Backup C because of Dickey. Generally we don't have enough of a Bench to matter. Having Juan Francisco is nice but the rest is not as good as it must be.

We have no one at the Front of the Rotation that deserves to be there. At present, there's no one close anywhere in the system, D.L. or not. Do we need a really good Starter? Yes. Right now the Team has gone from a dominant +6 Games to an almost forgotten -1 GBL. Time for Big Franchise-Sweeping changes, because if there's no Postseason, there's no reason to keep anyone (Mgmt inc.) for next year.
PeterG - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#289502) #
totally disagree with all of that !
bpoz - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#289503) #
Making the post season is great. You then have a chance to win it all.
If you qualify for the post season with 88 wins but not with 92 wins in a given season, then IMO the 88 win team is not a good team but the 92 win team is. Of course I will take the post season berth and realize that luck not being good was the reason.
I cannot think of any 88 win teams winning the WS but I believe Cleveland & Seattle did not win a WS the years that they won 100 games. Also Atlanta win 1 WS with a team that went to the post season almost every year for a decade. It is lucky that they have the 1 championship to celebrate after an incredible run.
Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#289504) #
I cannot think of any 88 win teams winning the WS

The Cardinals won in 2006 with an 83-win season.

uglyone - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#289505) #
Reyes has been a real liability lately.
bpoz - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#289507) #
Thanks Chuck. Pujols & Carpenter?
Eephus - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#289508) #
You know your offense has been scuffling when a deficit of 3-0 in the fourth inning almost feels like Game Over.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#289509) #
I cannot think of any 88 win teams winning the WS

And the 2000 Yankees. And the 1985 Twins.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#289510) #
That would be the 1987 Twins, of course.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#289511) #
State of the Blue Jays offense? Made up words, invented to describe the doings of talking rabbits come to mind...

tharn: A state of paralyzed fear or confusion. Can also be used to mean "looking foolish", "forlorn", "heartbroken".

This is starting to remind me just a little of 2008.
Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#289512) #
Thanks Chuck. Pujols & Carpenter?

baseball-reference.com answers all.

To say that the Cardinals' talent was highly concentrated that year is an understatement. Pujols had his then typical 8-win season. Carpenter and Rolen were each 5-win players. Some simple math should tell you how the rest of the team performed, in aggregate.

As a strange aside, Jason Marquis finished second in wins and innings pitched but his ERA was over 6 so he was left off the post-season roster.

Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#289513) #
Can anyone explain the presence of Cole Gillespie? That Pillar, Mastroianni and Pillar have been underwhelming is not reason enough as far as I can see.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#289514) #
They couldn't afford Cole Hamels?
Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#289516) #
Or maybe they thought they were getting Conor Gillaspie?
christaylor - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#289517) #
This team has not played well in over a month. If a deal is out there for a 2B/3B and/or a pitcher it is a mistake for AA to not go for it. The worst of all possible worlds is if we live in one where there's a deal that can't be made because of budgetary constraints.

AA should get what he can for the pitching prospects - the core of this team will be too old two years from now when they're likely to contribute. If this year fails, try selling on the core, eating salary for prospects (it is a sunk cost anyway).
bpoz - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#289518) #
I feel as fans... " we are grinding it out".
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#289519) #
Nice series.
Eephus - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#289521) #
When you can only score four runs total in a four game series, you kinda deserve to get swept.


PeterG - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#289522) #
I watched Hill and Prado on tv today and have seen them a couple of other times in the past month. I realize that is a very small sample size, but if it is at all representative of their current level of play, I would not touch either one......12 mil is more than double their value imo and for 2 more years it is no wonder that Snakes are trying to move them.

As for trading pitching prospects for whatever we can get, that is the worst possible thing AA could do and I feel very confident that he will not do it. With the injuries, the reality is that there is no post season and time to plan for next year. I would be more inclined to move Dickey if there were takers.

Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#289523) #
With the injuries, the reality is that there is no post season and time to plan for next year.

Way too soon - this is the AL East, much is forgiven - and anyway, Gibbons and Anthopoulos need a good 2014 to make sure they're still here in 2015.

You take what you can get. You may have a powerhouse offense and league average pitching, but if you can't close the Randy Johnson trade, you'll take Rickey Henderson. The 2014 Jays could really, really use Chase Utley (if only to keep him away from the Yankees). But any upgrades should be welcome.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#289524) #
I agree, Magpie, that it is way too soon to throw in the towel.  Go get players- infielders, outfielders, pitchers- whatever comes at a reasonable cost.  I wouldn't worry about the Yankees.  Satchel Paige's dictum about not looking back has a hold on me. 

I missed a lot of this series for one reason or another.  Not that the club performed any better when I was watching. Reyes is hitting .258/.313/.395 with poor defence at shortstop (most of the metrics say below average this year but I think he's been worse than that).  It has been frustrating to watch, as he obviously has the talent to do a lot better. 

Chuck - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#289525) #
These streaks that teams go on -- and we have seen both the good and bad kinds of late -- seem to either get people clearing their schedule for an autumn ticker tape parade or wanting management to start a re-build ASAP. A tempered middle ground is rare and precious.
PeterG - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#289526) #
reasonable cost is the key here......both in terms of salary (as there is a budget whether we think there should be or not) and in players.

Too soon to recognize reality?. I don't think so. Although I agree the Yanks are not a threat to win, I see a much stronger line up in Baltimore and think they will likely pull away. There may be more chance of the Jays finishing 5th than 1st so why trade away any top prospects.

Another thing to be recognized is that there may well be very few players available and it might be better to take advantage of that by selling...I said might?

If Jays are nore than 5 games out  3 weeks from now and I think they may well be more, I would look seriously at unloading Dickey....if not a good return, then don't///just investigate.

Rasmus should certainly go if u can get anything for him  but likely can't.

Cabrera and Janssen should either be signed to new contracts or dealt unless we are much closer to 1st than I expect.

Every effort should be made to bring back Melky...say up to 14 mil annually for 3 years though I think 12 is more fair.......

If Janssen wants more than 6 mil which he likely does, deal him....again if we are more than 5 out.

I don't think AA is worried about his job.....if he was, he would have done more in the off season.

Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2014 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#289528) #
the Yanks are not a threat to win

They're only 3.5 games off the lead, they're extremely well motivated, they've coveted Cliff Lee for years... I say, be afraid. I'm far more afraid of the Yankees than anyone else in the division.
dan gordon - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#289531) #
Rotoworld says that Jon Morosi of Fox Sports is reporting that Edwin Encarnacion will be out for 2-4 weeks with the quad strain.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#289532) #
Wow, that's good news in my books!

When I saw him go down (we were halfway down the first base line, 5 rows in, 1st game ever for my 7-year-old daughter), I felt like the season had just ended for the Jays..

(aside: I just can't seem to get a break in attending games here: Leafs do a California trip in January, win 2/3, but lose to San Jose, the game I took her to. Jays swept As in TO, get swept in Oakland. We didn't even put up much of a fight. About the best I can claim is that we had a lead for a couple of innings.. )

Lylemcr - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#289536) #

I feel the season slip sliding away....

This is when the GM steps in to make a move to show the team the organization is dedicated to winning.

 

Mike Green - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#289537) #
I understand that there was no point in DLing Edwin after Saturday night's game because of the following game on Sunday afternoon, but I trust that a player is already in LA ready to take Edwin's spot on the active roster for tonight's game.
ogator - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#289538) #
If you see the rotation going forward as something like Hutch, Stroman, Norris and Sanchez, cheap, young and talented, there may be no better time to trade Buehrle and/or Dickey. I know I'm gonna get torched for saying it but it might be time to sell high on Buerhle. He will never fetch more than right now.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#289539) #
there may be no better time to trade Buehrle and/or Dickey.

I can understand your thinking..  IMHO, the problem with a "gut it now so we can sell high" is that JBats and EE are hurt and can't really be traded right now. Can't imagine the haul we'd get for:
-Buehrle made the all star team - still pitching very well - a solid 2nd starter
-Dickey has stabilized, could be better in a bigger ballpark
-Melky should fetch a good prospect at least
-EE (if healthy): 2nd in HR, RBI, 3rd in AL OPS, WAR 3.1 (espn) - should get 2 good to very good prospects with his contract
-JBats (if healthy): 5th in AL OPS, WAR 3.7 (espn) - 2 very good prospects or more?
-Lind has an OBP of almost 400, OPS+ of 145 against righties - should be able to get a decent player in return
-Reyes might be interesting to some teams
-Navarro's ok (although he had a bad May, good April/June). Better hitter against RHP.

We have some very, very good players. The problem is, the supporting cast stinks:
-Francisco had 1 very, very hot month of May (OPS > 1), and has been at .59x ALL of June and July.. It's obvious he can't hit (or recognize) the low breaking ball.  Word is out.
-Tolleson: good/great May, abysmal June (OPS < .400).
The real problem is: they are both strictly platoon players: JF has an OPS of < .400 against LHP, Tolleson is at .331 against RHP. With Lawrie hurt, they've been pressed into service against the wrong hand, with disastrous results. This is on AA or Rogers or someone: not having any reserve budget (or bad drafting) to be able to have someone able to back up with reasonable stats. OPS < .380 is much worse than replacement level..
-Kawasaki can't hit LHP either.


This team is very, VERY vulnerable to LHP right now:
-Lind, we know
-Kawasaki, career OPS of 417 vs LHP
-JF, around .380 this year against LHP
-Rasmus, OPS in the .6xx range against LHP (acceptable for his "off" hand, but not a positive for the team)
-Navarro, in the .560's against LHP, Thole's in the .600s for this year, but .500s lifetime against LHP
-Reyes, OPS around .640 against LHP this year (better against RHP)
-Lawrie has reverse splits: .595 against LHP, .755 against RHP

The only "better than .700 OPS" hitters we have against LHP are:
-Melky at .790, although still better against RHP at .813
-EE - no need for stats
-JBats - no need for stats
-Tolleson

With Edwin hurt, we have THREE players that might hit well to excellent against LHP, and Joey isn't 100%. The rest of the lineup we could throw out there, in any combination, is going to have an OPS around 0.575 to 0.625 against LHP. That's 6 sinkholes in ANY lineup. We've already seen on this roadtrip how vulnerable we are to LHP. With that many sinkholes, it's easy to pitch around the other 3: I'm sure Joey got a bit frustrated at not getting anything to hit, and we saw them pitching around Edwin when he was in there.

Against RHP, I think the situation is much better, and obviously, that's the the more common case. However, even we have 2 lefty starters. At this point, it feels like any lefty, even a worse-than-average starter is guaranteed loss night for the Jays.. Of course, I'm sure the team isn't quite as bad as they've looked the last 2 weeks..
Mike Green - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#289540) #
Torched?  I don't think so.  The issue is whether one gives up on 2014.  I don't think they should.  Perhaps Buehrle and a prospect or two can be traded for Cliff Lee and Chase Utley.  I've got no problem with that....
uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#289542) #
I'd be a big fan of a headley trade. He's never going to be the stud he was in his career year a couple years back (145wrc+), but he's a solid hitter (110-115wrc+) on average and his poor offense this year is likely entirely due to unlucky babip. He's also very good defensively at 3B.

And his struggles likely bring his cost down significantly, too.

Very good buy low opportunity on a prime 2nd half bounceback candidate.
Ron - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#289543) #
BA and BP have released their mid-season Top 50 prospect rankings.

BA:
25 - Norris
47 - Pompey

BP:
29 - Sanchez
33 - Norris

Players from the 2014 draft class were not included in both lists.


uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#289544) #
"With Edwin hurt, we have THREE players that might hit well to excellent against LHP, "

Career vs. lhp:

Bautista 137wrc+
Tolleson 136
En'cion 133
Reyes 108
Navarro 102
Cabrera 98
Reimold 98
Lawrie 94

2 of those guys are injured.

Rasmus 76
Mastro 74
Lind 70
Gillespie 48
Thole 46
Kawasaki 19
Francisco 9

greenfrog - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#289545) #
It's something of a long shot, but I could see the Rays ekeing their way back into contention over the next couple of months if they decide to keep Price. Their front four of Price, Archer, Cobb and Odorizzi is pretty good.

Probably the Rays will fall short, but they aren't all that far out and the division is relatively weak.
uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#289546) #
Ron - surprised they graduated Stroman already with only 49.2ip. They kept gausman on all the lists coming into this year even though he pitched 47.2 innings last year.


On a related note, Davidi says the cubs asked about 5 kids in Shark talks...and tehey're the ones you'd expect - hutdh, sto, swnchez, norris, pompey. and i bet you they asked sbout lawrie, too.
Ron - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#289547) #
uglyone - For BA, players in the Majors were not eligible for the list. JJ Cooper did say Stroman would have made the Top 50 list if he was still in the minors.

Sanchez would have made the list if the rankings were expanded to the Top 75. BA is concerned about his poor control and command.
Gerry - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#289548) #
I don't know if the ratings people have been paying attention to Sanchez recently.

Up to two weeks ago Sanchez was a 5 inning pitcher with lots of K's and lots of walks and few hits.

It appears, according to John Lott's article over the weekend, that Sanchez decided to be a different pitcher.

Over his last two starts Sanchez has been a 7 inning pitcher with few walks, few K's (6 in 13 innings) and more hits (14 in 13 innings). Sanchez is throwing the ball more over the plate and relying on his natural movement.

Now that he can throw strikes and not walk everyone Sanchez just needs to find a middle ground where he K's a few more and gives up fewer hits.
Mike Green - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#289550) #
I don't know, Gerry.  Sanchez is very much a work-in-progress.  I still think that if he succeeds, it is much more likely to be as a high-leverage reliever.  The conventional wisdom was that Stroman would be a reliever and Sanchez a starter; I have always felt that a lot of bias based on size was behind that assessment. 

I am assuredly in a minority, but I would rather have Pompey than Sanchez or Norris at this point.  Slow start in the Eastern League notwithstanding. 

uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#289551) #
MikebI agree with you on sanchez but i'd still say norris is on top thanks to pure dominance at both levels this year. Pompey's been excellent but norris has been awesome....and norris was getting ranked just on pure stuff in years past, even when he stunk.

But i also think you're right that pompey's slow start in AA is nothing to be worried about. Hiss bb/k rates are phenomenal so far in AA, and its only a matter of time until the hits come.

I think BA probably has it right. 1. Norris 2. Pompey 3. Sanchez, with norris a borderline top 25 guy, pompey a borderline top 50 guy, and Sanchez just outside the top 50.
Mike Green - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#289552) #
I'll freely concede that I have a bias for position players over pitchers as top prospects.  The logic behind the bias is that pitchers are inherently more uncertain than position players because of the increased importance of injury in development. 

Speaking of that, Norris hasn't pitched since June 29.  The F-Cats are playing a doubleheader today and he is not listed as the starter for either of the games.  Anybody know what is up?

uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#289553) #
Yeah, true, the position player bias may be justified.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#289554) #
"With Edwin hurt, we have THREE players that might hit well to excellent against LHP, "

Career vs. lhp: Bautista 137wrc+ Tolleson 136 En'cion 133 Reyes 108 Navarro 102 Cabrera 98 Reimold 98 Lawrie 94

2 of those guys are injured. (reformatted to save space)

EE's out, Lawrie's out  (and hitting poorly against LHP this year). Reimold's rehabbing and not on the active roster yet - can't count him as a possible player. That cuts your list to 5.

Navarro seems to have up and down years against LHP: 2009: good, 2010-2011: bad, 2012-2013: good, 2014: bad (571 OPS in 80 AB). Sure, SSS, etc, but he's not a guaranteed hitter against LHP who's just having an off year - he's had bad years before.

Reyes: 2014: 639 OPS against LHP in 87 AB. Other years, yes, he's hit acceptably (705 in 2013, 750 in 2012) to excellent (> 800 in some years). This year, not so much, for whatever reason.

That leaves 3: JBats, Cabrera, Tolleson.
uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#289555) #
Reimold's just been added to the roster today. So 6.
uglyone - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#289556) #
One more note on headley - his offense is severely undervalued thanks to his home park, which is an extreme pitcher's park and always has been.

Career Home: .331obp, .703ops
Career Away: .361obp, .804ops

Of course wrc+ adjusts for home park which is why its splits are so much closer, as you would expect over a large sample like that - 107wrc+ at home, 118wrc+ on the road, for his career.
Gerry - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#289557) #
Norris is listed in the game notes as starting tomorrow. The F-Cats had a couple of rainouts last week plus they added Matt Boyd to the rotation. I don't know if this happened but sometimes if a pitcher warms up then it starts to rain, he gets bumped back by a few days. If he pitches tommorrow you can stop worrying Mike.
electric carrot - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#289558) #
I hate to be that guy but I think if the Jays had traded for the Shark instead of Oakland, we win that last game of the series.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#289559) #
Indeed. What's that phrase? "Time makes fools of us all"?  Of course, at the time I posted, it was true :-)

Tomorrow's game is against Skaggs, a LHP. Let's see what kind of a batting order we can construct with the roster as it sits  (* = problem against LHP)
SS   Reyes (* or not, depends on your view)
LF   Melky
1B  JBats
DH  Lind (*)
RF  Reimold
C    Navarro (*)
2B  Tolleson
CF  Rasmus (* maybe, maybe not, but not ideal)
3B  Francisco (**)

Bench: Thole (*), Kawasaki (*), Gillespie (*), Mastroianni (*)

So, we have minimum 3 total sinkholes. Rasmus/Reyes are between 600-700. Not great, but not totally horrid - they won't totally kill you, but they won't help you either.
It really hurts that Lind is probably our best choice for DH right now - even with all the extremely vocal people on here that say that Lind should not hit against LHP, no one else is noticeably better, has as good an eye, etc (that I know of).
I guess you could try JBats at 3B to get rid of JFran's horrible, horrible bat vs LHP, swap Lind to 1B and have Thole/Kawasaki/Gillespie/Mastroianni DH? They haven't been quite as bad as JF vs LHP, so that's an improvement. OTOH, I don't know if JB is 100% healthy and/or can handle 3B right now. 1B may be all he can handle. Can one of Tolleson/Kawasaki play 3B?

I believe my argument stands: no matter how you juggle the roster, we have no more than 3 players the opposition needs to be worried about vs. a LHP, although Reimold might make 4, if he's in game shape and doesn't need 10 games to get back to full speed. Still not very pretty.

Can Sergio Santos still swing a bat/play 3B?
PeterG - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#289560) #
  • that is worth considering....I believe that one one of them will go in off season but maybe sooner if the right deal can be lined up.....
Chuck - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#289561) #
Tomorrow's game is against Skaggs, a LHP. Let's see what kind of a batting order we can construct with the roster as it sits (* = problem against LHP)
SS Reyes (* or not, depends on your view)
LF Melky
1B JBats
DH Lind (*)
RF Reimold
C Navarro (*)
2B Tolleson
CF Rasmus (* maybe, maybe not, but not ideal)
3B Francisco (**)

My guesses (for LHP):
DH: Reimold and not Lind
RF: Mastroianni or Gillespie (maybe even both with Rasmus sitting)
2B/3B: Kawasaki/Tolleson and not Tolleson/Francisco

Caveat: I am wrong many times a day and this may be yet another such instance.

Mike Green - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#289562) #
Kawasaki bats 2nd, with Rasmus 7th and Francisco 9th, against a RHP.  Riding the tepid hand, I guess.
greenfrog - Monday, July 07 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#289564) #
Rosenthal tweet:

@Ken_Rosenthal
Hutchison, Strohman [sic] already in rotation. Rival scout says Norris/Sanchez could be 1-2s, and that #BlueJays would be “crazy” to move them...
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