Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Jays vs. Yankees

Another first-place showdown is on the menu for the next three nights as the Blue Jays take on the Yankees at the Dome. As per usual, more roster moves have been made as outfielders Anthony Gose and Kevin Pillar have been summoned from Triple-A Buffalo. Catcher Erik Kratz goes back to Buffalo, Brett Lawrie is on the 15-day disabled list with a fractured digit and Jose Bautista has a sore left hamstring.

Anthony Gose will look to improve on his batting line of .233/.347/.291 in 34 games with Toronto this season. He is 3-for-6 in the stolen base department.

The 42-35 Blue Jays still have a 1-1/2 game lead for first place in the American League East but there are two teams who are in the rear view mirror. The Orioles have pulled into a tie with the Yankees after winning two of three against the Bronx Bomber at Camden Yards over the weekend. Both clubs are tied with the Jays in the loss column with 39-35 marks.

Series Schedule & Probable Starters...

Tonight @ 7:07 pm ET - Marcus Stroman (3-2, 5.14) vs. Chase Whitley (3-0, 2.56).
Tuesday @ 7:07 pm ET - Mark Buehrle (10-4, 2.32) vs. David Phelps (3-4, 3.86).
Wednesday @ 7:07 pm ET - Drew Hutchison (5-5, 3.86) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (4-5, 4.23).

Tonight's Lineup...

Reyes, SS
Cabrera, LF
Lind, DH
Encarnacion, 1B
Rasmus, CF
Navarro, C
Francisco, 3B
Kawasaki, 2B
Gose, RF

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Monday, June 23 2014 @ 05:02 PM EDT.

Jays vs. Yankees - June 23-25 | 146 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

BlueJayWay - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#288833) #

Please have a good series.

uglyone - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#288834) #

Yep. Now the collar is getting legit tight. Time to make a clear claim to top spot.

christaylor - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#288835) #

It is always true that winning is better than losing but a sweep or a win is going to sway my perception of the team.

The last Yankees series did the same - mostly because I believe I know what sort of Team the Yankees are and just don't with these Blue Jays. Any ideas on what Jays team of the past most closely resembles this team?

scottt - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#288836) #

Tonight I'm expecting the strike zone to be more balanced, yet Stroman not getting called third strikes.

greenfrog - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#288839) #

Last off-season I argued that the Jays had depth issues and that they needed:

- At least one SP
- A second baseman
- A versatile fourth OF (someone like David DeJesus)
- Another catcher to split time with Navarro (someone like Conger or Hanigan)
- A backup SS (someone like Brendan Ryan)

I also argued early this season that the Jays should be regularly resting their star regulars like Reyes, Bautista and EE, for reasons of productivity and health.

Obviously the Jays didn't have the budget and/or willing trading partners to make most of the above moves, and some of the brand-name players that were available have flopped (Ellis, Ubaldo, Nolasco, Infante). Also, as it turned out, the Jays did make some depth moves on the cheap (Francisco, for example). Still, it would have been nice to have more depth and health on the roster than is currently the case. In my mind, the two are connected.

uglyone - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#288840) #

Did you also argue they'd be in first place at the halfway mark, without filling those needs?

Chuck - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#288841) #

Jays got lucky. Gose was out of the base line. Should've been an automatic DP.

uglyone - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#288842) #

Nice to see the jays aren't falling for whitley's liam hendriks repertoire a second time.

greenfrog - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#288845) #

Did you also argue they'd be in first place at the halfway mark, without filling those needs?

Well, a couple of weeks ago they were 38-24 and were six games ahead in the AL East with roughly a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Now they're 42-35 and are up 1.5 games on two teams and have a 58.6% chance of making the playoffs (per ESPN; 55.3% per Baseball Prospectus).

I love that the Jays have had a good start to the season, but there's no reason to aim low and rely on optimistic sentiment to tune out the reality on the ground. There's a lot of baseball left and the team should be aiming to dominate and build off of their good fortune, not simply cling to an increasingly tenuous divisional lead and hope that their rivals don't step it up.

One move I argued for that I'm happy did come to pass, though, was the Jays' picking up Lind's option. Haven't heard much lately from the people who wanted the Jays to flip Lind (348/425/539) for a fungible reliever and replace him with a LH bat like Ibanez or Overbay.

Mike Green - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#288846) #

Great game for Stroman, using all his pitches. I am not worried about his lack of downward plane.

greenfrog - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#288847) #

Agreed, Stroman has looked terrific tonight.

Pretty acrobatic play by Ryan on Tolleson's grounder to the hole.

Eephus - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#288848) #

Boy, Tolleson needs to find the name of that snake that bit him. First that Cozart DP yesterday, now that amazing play by Ryan.

greenfrog - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#288850) #

Stroman playing the role of stopper. Nice.

Richard S.S. - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#288851) #

That was something special.
Baltimore scored three in the ninth to stay 1.5 GBL.
Toronto has been in First place or tied for First place for 47 of the 78 games they've placed including 40 straight.
Thursday is the exact halfway point to the season.

1). A.A. needs to sign his first two picks early enough to sign any others they want. The he can get around to the BIG needs.
2). A.A. needs a Starting 2B ASAP.
3). Stroman or Hutchison or both might hit an inning wall before mid-August. It's necessary to get the best he can because the ones he might need to replace are really good.
4). When does A.A. finally realize Bench guys might assume full time rolls for major studs. What he has usually has available on this team usually sucks.

uglyone - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#288852) #

Our bench has been pretty great this year. Francisco, tolleson, thole, gose.....even some contributions from kratz, pillar, kawasaki.

Its a big reason why we're in first place despite injuries to our starting CF SS DH 3B and 2B.

Richard S.S. - Monday, June 23 2014 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#288854) #

We got lucky with Bautista and Lind. Unlucky with Cecil, Delabar and Lawrie. Temporary fill-ins for Bautista and Lind are doing fine. Fill-ins for Cecil and Delabar indicate hidden depth. But missing Lawrie for 3-6 weeks is going to be tough. That's why a starting Second Base acquisition wouldn't hurt.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#288855) #

Or 3B. What about chase headley, who's value may be an all time low.

finch - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#288856) #

What does it cost us to get Danks and Beckham out of Chicago? If it's Sanchez, I'm probably okay with that. Wouldn't move Norris, Stroman OR Hutchison at this point.

Beyonder - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#288857) #

Morosi is reporting that the price for Samardzija is Sanchez, Pompey, and Norris, and that the Cubs are simply waiting for the Blue Jays to "blink".

If all Sanchez could fetch in a trade is Danks and Beckham, I'd just as soon hold on to him. I see Danks as a fifth starter on this team, and Beckham as a small marginal improvement over Kawasaki, Tolleson, or whoever else we throw out at second.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#288858) #

Morosi is reporting that the price for Samardzija is Sanchez, Pompey, and Norris, and that the Cubs are simply waiting for the Blue Jays to "blink".

No. Not even remotely close to interested. Would be appalled if they did that. Samardzija is good, but not that good.

At this point, the club should not even be particularly targeting a starting pitcher. They need a second baseman far more.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#288859) #

Ya, i might be convinced to give that up for Pricw, bu never for shark.

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#288860) #

it rubs the wrong way when you trade for someone who you have no chance of extending. A pure rental who - not because you don't want to sign him but because he has no interest in being in Toronto.

I'd do that deal for Samardzica if we could sign him to an extension. According to the article that Mike linked, he's rejected 5/85 as an extension with the Cubs, which means to me his price to the Jays would be either non-existent or otherworldly.

It doesn't feel like winning with someone who doesn't want to be on the team and is just running out a service string. So, if he's interested in an extension and that can be done, then Sanchez, Pompey, Norris works for me. If he's not, then not much works. I'd rather let him play out the string with the Cubs and let him hope for his free agent shot with the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#288862) #

I was listening to Showalter on with Francesa over the weekend and they discussed bullpen usage again, especially with regards to getting relievers up and throwing and not using them in the game. I really like Gibbons as a manager, but I wonder if his philosophy is a little different than Buck's in that regard, and whether or not that has an effect on the relievers ability to hold up. Last night's game, where Gibbons had Janssen get up and start throwing in the 9th inning, is an instant where the security of knowing he's warm in case an 8-3 game gets closer may not be worth the cost of getting Janssen warm.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#288863) #

Nobody here ever doubted Adam Lind's ability to hit right-handed pitching, so once again you are misrepresenting the side that advocated trading Lind for value greenfrog.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#288864) #

If Shark's 5/85m demand has any semblance of truth to it I don't think we even need to discuss potential trade packages. Samardzija is not the pitcher you want to start handing out a long term deal to at 17m per when you've been so hesitant to target FA pitchers since you took over the job. AA's biggest commitments he has signed a player to are those of Dickey and Bautista, 12m & 14m.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#288865) #

Samardizya (16 GS, 88-77-21-103 whip:1.11) - sort of like Scrabble - even starts with an S...

I rated our (young) close(ish) to the show starters as: Hutchison, Stroman, Norris, Osuna, Castro then Sanchez. YES - I know - one of those names is not like the others...Castro is still MUCH too young to be rated as a near cert to be a serious MLB pitcher - but - I just can't help myself - I think he's an ACE in the making.... In addition Cole is looking good (remember he was off polluting young minds (er... spreading the good news... er whatever... for a couple of years - that's why he's old for where he is).

So I see 6 guys who could be up with the Team by late 2015 AT THE LATEST: Hutch, Stroman, Norris, Osuna, Sanchez and Cole.

IF - we traded Norris and Sanzhez (Norris would be a SERIOUS LOSS as the guy is light years ahead of Sanchez...at this point) and Pompey (Pompey is sorta like Gose - fast, excellent fielder and developing bat) for Scrabble (with an S) that would leave us with Hutch, Stroman, Osuna, Cole and eventually (he who might just be the best of these guys - Castro (swoon...). For two years of S-Scrabble replacing Happ.

Could that put us over the top... perhaps... : The old guys B&D, The NEW guy (for the rest of 14 and 15), Hutch and Stroman...

This is a trigger I`d pull. AA - think Nike - Just Do It!

IF - you can get Price for the same price then pull that trigger instead (I`m sure you can`t - TB would NEVER trade him to us).

mathesond - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#288867) #

(I`m sure you can`t - TB would NEVER trade him to us)

Well, TB did trade Steve Trachsel to the Jays once upon a time...

mathesond - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#288868) #

I have seen suggestions that the Dodgers might offer Joc Pederson to TB for Price. If TB is looking for position players, then the Jays are likely not in the discussion

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#288869) #

-Jays won
-Yankees lost
-my softball team came back from 7-0 and 19-11 (in our last at-bat) deficits to win 20-19 for our first win of this season (we're like 1-7)

Pretty good day :-)

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#288871) #

Pompey is different from Gose in a number of important ways. He's an excellent fielder and fast, but has some refined skills that Gose lacks. He doesn't strike out as much and steals bases with much greater efficiency. It all adds up to a more attractive offensive package.

Plus, he's a local guy. He is worth more to the organization as a player than as a tradeable asset. The long-term faces of the organization among the position players ought to be Lawrie and Pompey. Hopefully, the club is able to bring back at least one of Encarnacion and Bautista when the current contracts are up.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#288873) #

Mike - I don`t mean to sell Pompey short. Years ago - even when he was just fast and a good outfielder I was impressed. Lately, he`s been a more serious prospect. However, I don`t think he`ll be a `game changer.`

With the good work of Hutch and Stroman and the two Ol`guys I think another truly good pitcher would really give the Jays a serious chance every game.

Lose Norris (the REAL loss), Sanchez (the MIGHT BE real loss) and Pompey (you`ve still got Gose) and increase your chances to get into the post season - for the first time in the lives of many readers of this site - and that`s a deal I can live with.

HOWEVER - if we did not also have Osuna, Cole, Castro (later) and several other promising arms as well -I would NEVER agree to letting Norris go. But needs must and the residual young pitching is still not exactly chopped liver.

dan gordon - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#288874) #

I would be extremely disappointed to see Sanchez, Norris and Pompey all traded for a year and a half of Jeff Samardzija, who has a career ERA of 3.93 and WHIP of 1.33 while pitching in the NL Central. Pompey is just starting to show his excellent all-around skills at the age of 21 in high A ball, and he's from Mississauga - a potential home grown star. Norris was absolutely dominant at high A, also at the age of 21, before getting bumped recently, and we all know about Sanchez. You don't build a team by trading that amount of talent for a year and a half of a pretty good, but not great pitcher.

Note that after his great start this year, Samardzija's last 8 starts have been right back to his career norms - his ERA is 3.83 and his WHIP is 1.36 in his last 8 starts after a very good run in his first 8 starts. That's the guy you'd be getting. Add in the DH, and he'd give you, what, an ERA of about 4.30 and a WHIP of about 1.40 in the AL? No way do you want to gut your farm system for that. There are other pitchers who are, or will become, available who won't be nearly so costly.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#288876) #

However, I don`t think he`ll be a `game changer.`

I don't know what this means. He won't be Mike Trout or Mickey Mantle. Could he end up as valuable to a club as Paul Blair or Devon White or Willie Davis? Sure. These players are very, very valuable but generally don't attract the attention they merit.

I do know this. Jeff Samardzija is a long, long way from a "game changer".

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#288877) #

Pompey and Norris will be the Jays' representatives in the Futures Game.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#288878) #

Meaningless personal feeling here, but for whatever reason I keep getting an AJ Burnett impression from Samardzija.

Good pitcher with dynamite stuff, but a bunch of question marks, not the least of which is how his stats will be effected by the change in leagues.

That rumoured package is an Ace type package. Comparable to what we got for Halladay. That is just too much for Samardzija.

Hodgie - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#288879) #

All three players will be Top 100 ranked players by the season's end if not by mid-season. That trade would be a heist for the Cubs. This is not the early 90's where the team was already a perennial contender with a young core of Olerud, Alomar, Delgado, Green etc. either already established or on the near horizon to justify moves. That and Samardjiza is no David Cone.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#288880) #

That is way too much for Samardzija. Price on the other hand... but, I don't think TBay will trade him to us anyway.

I would say, I will give you Norris and Pompey, and if Price signs an extension, you can have Sanchez. The rotation would be a lock for years with Price, Hutch and Stroman. Beuhrle will pitch till he 100 years old. I can live with that.

The only thing I don't like is that the arms in the minors would be thin then, but with that three, you might be set for a couple years to get new arms. (I still am looking forward to see Osuna mature.)

I am with everyone else, I don't like sending away Pompey. If he ends up superstud status, as a Canadian, we will regret that trade more than any other trade.... Unless, getting Price here means we have a world series....again.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#288881) #

"I have seen suggestions that the Dodgers might offer Joc Pederson to TB for Price. If TB is looking for position players, then the Jays are likely not in the discussion"

hard to tell what the rays would be looking for, though yeah they're probably leaning towards hitters at this point.

Myers is the only real positional talent they have, and he's probably a bit overrated given his good but not great milb numbers and babip-infused mlb numbers. There's a number of other borderline types - mahtook, kiermaier, toles, lee, brett, unroe - but not much in the way of impact talent.

pitching isn't as strong as it uses to be but the situation isn't that dire even if price leaves.

next year without price they'd look like:

Cobb 27: 64gs, 6.1ip/gs, 3.49era, 3.57fip, 3.40xfip, 3.50siera
Archer 26: 42gs, 5.7ip/gs, 3.36era, 3.62fip, 3.76xfip, 3.76siera
Hellickson 28: 95gs, 5.9ip/gs, 3.70era, 4.39fip, 4.40xfip, 4.38siera
Moore 26: 61gs, 5.6ip/gs, 3.53era, 3.91fip, 4.28xfip, 4.14siera
Odorizzi 25: 21gs, 5.0ip/gs, 4.24era, 3.49fip, 3.83xfip, 3.27siera

Montgomery 25: AAA - 436ip, 4.85era, 4.56fip
Andriese 26: AAA - 142ip, 3.93era, 3.81fip

and then a couple guys like Romero and Karns who have struggled pretty badly in AAA.

not great but enough maybe that they think a position player is more important.

Chuck - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#288884) #

However, I don`t think he`ll be a `game changer.`

I don't know what this means.

I was going to write this exact same thing. It's an honorific of choice for Buck and Pat as well. I find that game changer and production are terms that convey almost no useful information at all.

dan gordon - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#288885) #

Just having a look at Ian Kennedy with San Diego. He's a free agent in 2016, the same as Samardzija. Haven't heard his name mentioned at all. No idea what he would cost in terms of players. There's LOTS of guys on the bottom 10-15 teams who could help a rotation. Bartolo Colon on the Mets has been great. Matsuzaka has looked very good, there's Hammel, Lee, of course, but you've got the contract to deal with. Just look around at the rotations of the weaker teams, and you see lots of guys who could help - you don't need to focus on a guy like Samardzija who wouldn't be all that great anyway. The more I think about the idea of giving up those 3 prospects for him the more horrified I become.

Hodgie - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#288887) #

Hopefully Anthopoulos is not just posturing when he says that he would be more interested in a rental pitcher to avoid gutting the farm system. I am also holding out hope that if Morosi has heard it there is no way happening.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#288890) #

92-93, I don't mind Gibbons' decision to have Janssen warming in the particular context. He hadn't thrown since Friday and he is getting near the point where he needs the work anyway. I was also delighted with the decision to send Stroman out to pitch the 8th inning. It looks to me like Stroman might be the club's best pitcher come September, and you want to have him ready to pitch deep into games. It's best if the first time he does it, the pressure is off.

Gibbons has made a number of moves in the last few weeks that I was not expecting and that I wholeheartedly approve of. Mostly in games that the club lost, so it really isn't a "glow of winning" situation.

dan gordon - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#288891) #

On the Fan 590 today, they talked about Martin Prado and Gordon Beckham as possible acquisitions for 2B. Prado would be nice - he started slowly this year, but he's turned it around in the last month, with an OPS of .843 in his last 30 games. The Giants are after him as well, as they need a 2B due to the injury to Marco Scutaro. He's played more OF and 3B than 2B since 2011, so his defense there could be an issue. I'd be less interested in Beckham, although he is hitting better than any year since his rookie season in 2009.

finch - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#288892) #

AA has been after Beckham, so it seems, for a while now. He's AA's type of player, big hype coming through the minors but has fizzled after one big year, a la Rasmus. My money is on Gordon Beckham coming to the Jays. I'm sure his numbers would increase at the Rogers Centre.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#288894) #

Beckham is more of a second baseman. If you were going to acquire Prado, it would make sense to put Lawrie back at second base. I would prefer if they didn't do that.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#288895) #

just a note - after a big slump, Francisco is back posting an .881ops over his last 10gms.

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#288898) #

That was awesome.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#288899) #

I particularly enjoyed the bat flip.

CeeBee - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#288900) #

Nice shutdown inning after scoring 3 and now Kawasaki starting the 5th off with a nice single... time to do some add-ons

mathesond - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#288901) #

Jeter can help with the add-ons!

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#288902) #

Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Derek Jeter.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#288903) #

Little League mistakes by the HOFer.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#288905) #

That inning had a real "Willie-Mays-1973-World-Series" feel to it. Ten years ago Jeter catches the Reyes pop, throws out Encarnacion at first, and tags Rasmus from behind.

electric carrot - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#288906) #

I knew we'd start scoring more runs once we got base-clogger Bautista out of the lineup.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#288909) #

Reyes is kinda dumb.

finch - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#288911) #

Any SS available to trade for. On other thought...he can't make a throw from 2B range either

Magpie - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#288912) #

The one thing Lind does quite a bit better defensively than Encarnacion is catch throws in the dirt. Edwin's more or less helpless on those plays, and on this team that seems to be something of a problem.

Gerry - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#288913) #

I have been really disappointed in Reyes defense this year. His range is bad but I thought his strong arm was an offsetting plus. He seems to make errors at the worst time.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#288914) #

If McGowan was a little bit better things might change. Why does everyone seem to have a "mind-fart" when playing the Yankees. They're really not that good.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#288915) #

Gut check game here now.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#288916) #

Betances is tired. Looks vulnerable for the first time. Now is the time.

Chuck - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#288917) #

Terrible approach by Betances against the largely inert Tolleson.

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#288918) #

Happy I missed the middle innings (including Reyes' error).

I did catch the 9th, though. Janssen is really good.

Now let's finish this baby off and call it a night.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#288919) #

Ha. What a win.

Despite his errors, all most fans will remember about reyes this game is that speedy double, its celebration, and the winning run.

Hutch having a good one at home for once to get a sweep would be pretty perfect.

mathesond - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#288920) #

If Reyes doesn't make those errors earlier, perhaps the Yankees are held to fewer than 6 runs, and he doesn't get a chance for 9th inning clutchitude

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#288921) #

Kinda worried about EE after that collision at first with Teixeira.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 24 2014 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#288923) #

A new streak has started, thank you, thank you, thank you. Balitimore lost finally so the Jays now have a 2.5 game lead.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#288924) #

Got to love it - the Jays go through a rough patch and are 1 1/2 ahead throughout (at least). Now back to 2 1/2 with Baltimore & NY close, Boston still 8 out and Tampa 13 out.

Right now...
Runs for: Jays 375, Baltimore 321, Yankees 306, Boston & Tampa under 300
Runs against: Jays 344 worst in AL East, but best is Baltimore at 312 in 3 fewer games.

The Jays right now are the class of the AL East. Only Oakland has scored more in the AL (390), with the Angels in 3rd at 350 runs. The NL leader is Milwaukee at 351.

So offensively, while more at 2B and CA would be nice it isn't vital by any stretch. It is, of course, pitching that is the issue. The Jays 3.91 ERA for starters is #7 in the AL with the 4 teams right behind them being the other 4 AL East teams (go figure). The pen though is #13 for ERA at 4.52. Seems relief is a bigger issue this year, another 'who knew' thing.

So what to do?

The pen has 'safe to use' Janssen, and I'm starting to feel better about Santos (4 games since coming back, 0 BB 2 H 1 SO in 3 1/3 IP). I suspect McGowan just had a bad day today, Cecil & Loup normally are reliable. Redmond or Jenkins is fine in long relief. Delabar is a headache with the others available being 'meh' for the most part. I doubt AA will chase improvements here other than calling up a few others over the summer to see who sticks.

The rotation has been discussed to a crazy degree. Happ is the weakest link, as Stroman is really looking good overall. Buehrle, Dickey, Hutch are all solid too. I'd only trade for an ace level guy and those are hard to get and expensive.

In the end I just keep going back to 'if only Rogers would eat the cash and the Phillies give up the season'. Cliff Lee is the ace we want/need. Chase Utley would be a big offensive improvement at 2B. Carlos Ruiz a big upgrade behind the plate. Lee signed through 2016, Utley 2015 (options for 16/17/18), Ruiz for 15/16 option 17. However, all 3 have no-trade clauses which could kill anything. Still, fun to dream.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#288928) #

That inning had a real "Willie-Mays-1973-World-Series" feel to it. Ten years ago Jeter catches the Reyes pop, throws out Encarnacion at first, and tags Rasmus from behind.

You inadvertently pushed a button there, Magpie. Using Willie Mays and Jeter in the same sentence is forbidden in my house unless the sentence is: "the hype around Jeter's last season is nuts; who do they think he is, Willie Mays?"

If one needed one more reason to not place much weight on part-season defensive statistics, take a look at this. According to UZR, Derek Jeter has been a net positive on defence this year while Brendan Ryan has been a net negative. Which is roughly the equivalent of seeing Ken Huckaby's name at the top of the batting tables after 50 at-bats or something.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#288929) #

I think getting Jonny Gomes from the red sox to DH vs. LHP would be a good move, and probably cheap too.

I also agree the bullpen is not really an issue. Injuries to janssen, santos, and cecil have made them look worse on paper overall. The "real" bullpen i.e. the original 7 relievers - Janssen, Cecil, Santos, Loup, McGowan, Delabar, Redmond - have a combined 3.50 era in 177.1ip, with peripherals to match, even though santos and delabar have struggled. That's good. The problem with the pen has been the silly 7.18era in 67.2ip put up by the 9 extra relievers we've used this year.

Jonny German - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#288930) #

Purely coincidence that you chose Huckaby for your example Mike?

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#288931) #

Believe it or not, the association was purely subconscious. I had not started on my first coffee of the day...

Dioner Navarro's home run last night was a very good sign. It was no cheapie. A little burst of power from him over the next month or so would be just what the doctor ordered. He does have it in him, and his modest workload earlier in the season probably makes it more likely to occur. With Kratz down, he's going to play four out of every five games.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#288932) #

One more thing. I felt that the Yankees were getting the better of the strike-zone calls again last night. It looks like that was right. There was a zone from 1.5 feet above the ground to the bottom of the strike zone and clearly over the plate horizontally that was a problem in the Tanaka game in New York. The Yankees got 4 out of 5 calls in this zone last night and the Jays got 1 out of 5 calls. It included two really bad strike calls for the Yankees, one really bad strike call for the Blue Jays and one strange ball call for the Blue Jays (many worse pitches in the same general location called strikes). Obviously it wasn't at the level of the Tanaka game, but given that the game was played in the RC, you'd expect some kind of home-team bias rather than the reverse.

For fun, I decided to check Monday's game. I had thought that Laz Diaz' strike zone favoured the Jays early and the Yankees late. It turned out that low pitches were called pretty consistently in accordance with the zone, but the Yankees again did a little better overall. It would be fun to have an aggregation of all Yankees games home and away to see how they do with the umpires. It would be especially fun to see how they do in the late innings. There was a time when the Yankees beat Pythagoras consistently for a period of years, and I often wondered if umpires were affected by the Yankee mystique in the late innings.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#288933) #

John
Marcus Stroman is around 72 innings for the Season. He will reach his Innings Limit in, at the very most, 100.0 more innings. The way he can pitch means whomever replaces him must be as good or better.

Drew Hutchison has pitched around 86 innings this Season. He will reach his Innings Limit in, at the very most, 90.0 more innings. He is also a very good pitcher, so his replacement must be as good or better.

I don't think worrying about J.A. Happ is the issue right now. I think the sooner we get a quality Starter the better. I just think A.A. might wait too long before doing anything.

The price is not an issue. Aaron Sanchez is on the cusp of losing trade value and if he's such a stud, how come he's not up here. Trade him while he still has top value. Daniel Norris is at least two full years away (2017). I think Jeff Hoffman will pitch in the majors before he does. Right now, he's a valuable trade piece. Dalton Pompey has pushed himself into top trade values, but he's not a stud. He too, is at least two years away (2017). I think it's time to worry about 2014 now, with 2015 much later. 2016 and 2017 are too far away to matter now.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#288935) #

An interesting feature at B-R is a summary of WAR by position including starting/relieving for pitchers. How do the Jays do? Fairly well.
Total: #3 in AL at 5.0 (Oakland & LAA ahead, Seattle next at 3.6).
Starters: #3 in AL, just ahead of Seattle with Oakland and (who knew) Houston ahead of the Jays.
Relievers: #13 in AL (-1.3 WAR), only Detroit and LAA are worse.
Non pitchers: #3 in AL (Oakland & LAA ahead, Baltimore close behind 3.1 vs Jays 3.8)
CA: #12 in AL, luckily the 3 behind the Jays are NYY, Tampa, and Boston.
1B: #1 in AL, 1.7 vs Detroit 1.4 being second
2B: #8 in AL, but NYY/Tampa/Baltimore behind
3B: #5 in AL with Oakland lapping the field (3.0, double anyone else)
SS: #6 in AL
LF: #8 in AL, -0.1 WAR (ick)
CF: #12 in AL
RF: #1 in AL (2.1 vs LAA 1.4)
DH: #3 in AL (Detroit & Baltimore ahead)
OF: #5 in AL (thank you Bautista)
PH: #5 in AL (still below 0 WAR though)

So anything lower than 7th is sub par basically. CF and CA are the killers although CF is due to playing Gose & Pillar (both hit poorly in CF) while Rasmus was DL'ed. CA is frustrating as we hoped Navarro would be a lot better than this. LF and 2B are sub par but not by much so not total panics but upgrades would be nice. Cleveland is sub 500 with Yan Gomes and Carlos Santana both hitting well - might a trade be possible there? Santana has moved away from the plate though so they might not as both are on good contracts. Philly in the NL looks like the best match, but there really aren't that many solid catchers on poor teams.

Sal - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#288936) #

Daniel Norris is at least two full years away (2017). I think Jeff Hoffman will pitch in the majors before he does.

This is just illogical and a severe case of convincing yourself. Daniel Norris is likely to be up in the majors in 2015 if he continues at current pace.

Right now, he's a valuable trade piece.

Or a very good pitching prospect who can be another Hutchison starting next year.

Dalton Pompey has pushed himself into top trade values, but he's not a stud.

He is certainly performing like a stud in A+. Very good walk rate. Ok K rate. Decent power. Very good hitting. Excellent defense. Excellent base running. Excellent splits. He wouldn't have "pushed himself into top trade values" if he did not perform like a stud.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#288939) #

John, not that it matters much, but WAR actually likes what Gose did in CF. WAR does not like Rasmus' sub-.300 OBP (I agree) and takes the view that his defence has been terrible this year (I do not agree). As mentioned above, there is a very serious sample size issue in measuring the defensive contributions of individual players over half a season. Subjectively, Rasmus was very good defensively at the start of the season and then terrible for several weeks (presumably his hamstring injury was flaring). He has been pretty good since he returned. Whether you look at 3 year or 6 year averages, he's a 0 to +5 defender overall. The fluctuation in his performance is (I think) mostly due to injuries. He had a heel injury in 2009, a calf and hamstring injury that bothered him for at least 2 and 1/2 months in 2010 and a groin injury in 2012. When healthy, he moves very well but he is often at less than 100%.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#288948) #

Good catch Mike - I was just going off of hitting and not thinking about defense (pretty dumb really to ignore that). By WAR Gose and Francisco are equals (0.6 each) - Gose via a 0.1 offense 0.7 defense, Francisco 1.1 offense -0.4 defense. 4 guys in the 1's (Lawrie, Lind, Reyes, Cabrera) and 2 in the 3's (Bautista, EE).

Worst hitters on the roster now are Pillar, Thole, Rasmus all at -0.1 WAR. Sierra was the worst at -0.6 with Diaz at -0.2.

For defense we see Gose at 0.7, Goins 0.6, Lawrie 0.4, Kratz 0.4 (who knew?), Izturis 0.3 (proof of small sample size error), Getz 0.3
Worst defense gets ugly with Cabrera -1.2, and EE and Rasmus at -0.7 and -0.8 respectively. Francisco and Lind at -0.4 despite DH time for each.

Guess there is part of the problem. We have 4 DH's (Cabrera, EE, Lind, Francisco). As long as all hit well the Jays can deal but boy would it be nice if any could be better with the leather.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#288950) #

"One more thing. I felt that the Yankees were getting the better of the strike-zone calls again last night. "

Ya, not surprising....but as long as its in the "small handful" range and not the 10-15 extra favorable calls per game we saw in NY i'm willing to give mccann some credit for his framing skills instead of smashing my laptop.

"John
Marcus Stroman is around 72 innings for the Season. He will reach his Innings Limit in, at the very most, 100.0 more innings. The way he can pitch means whomever replaces him must be as good or better.

Drew Hutchison has pitched around 86 innings this Season. He will reach his Innings Limit in, at the very most, 90.0 more innings. He is also a very good pitcher, so his replacement must be as good or better."

100 innings is about 17 more starts each, which takes us right to the end of the season, so i don't see any need for replacements.

" Daniel Norris is at least two full years away (2017)."

Recent jays history indicates that any prospect dominating in AA is a possibility to be called up imminently.

"WAR does not like Rasmus' sub-.300 OBP (I agree)"

Actually i think it does like his offense this year. Fangraphs has him at 2.4 offensive runs above replacement, which is around 9-10 over a full season. Not as good as last year but still good. B/R has him at 0.8oWAR which again isn't great but pretty good, on pace for around 3war just from offense over a full year.

Even using an OBP-adjusted metric like woba or wrc+, Colby is still top 10 amongst starting mlb cf this year.

And i expect his defensive numbers will regress back towards "average defensive cf" range as the season goes on. Small sample size effects can be seen in the fact that in the few games since he's come back colby has already chopped his negative defensive war from -7.1 to -6.1 on fangraphs, which has already improved his war from -0.1 to +0.2.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#288951) #

I had a quick gander at the Blue Jays schedule. After a day off on June 30, they play two against the Brewers at home and then have a tough but short trip to Los Angeles and Oakland followed by a day off and then a 3 game set in Tampa before the All-Star break. It's not too bad. Coming out of the break, they have 17 straight games, including 7 with the Red Sox, but then lots of days off through most of August. The end of the schedule is not so kind; from August 29 to September 28, they have but one day off. There will be need for reinforcements like Hendriks and potentially Norris and Sanchez.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#288952) #

John those are intersting numbers. Fangraphs also has a war by position tool, though it looks like they use the total stats of every player who has played that position instead of divvying each player up according to where he started.

Anyways, fangraphs ranks them like this:

RF 1st
1B 1st
3B 4th
DH 4th
LF 6th
2B 7th
CF 8th
SS 8th
C 13th

So by fangraphs, C has been the only real hole on the team.

And hey why not compare to last year:

DH 1st
RF 2nd
1B 2nd
CF 6th
SS 7th
12th
3B 14th
C 15th
2B 15th

Similar at the top end, but this year we've plugged every one of those gaping holes from last year. (even if C hasn't improved much by rank, it's still on pace to be 2+ war more valuable this year).

bpoz - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#288953) #

Richard SS, I agree with some of what you say, ie it makes sense to me.
1) Hutchison & Stroman do/should have a an innings limit. They have to stay healthy & not tire. IMO they will miss some starts to get needed rest.
2) You have mentioned 3 V good prospects & Mylegacy has added to your list. Some will work out & some will not. That is just the way it is.

It will help if M Buehrle pitches at the same level all year. Dickey may improve, but how much? Actually for May & June Dickey has been good.

A lot of ground work will be set at/by the All Star break regarding who is available & for how much.
What will our record be? Will anyone be injured? Bautista is injured & so is Lind, Rasmus was.
Since "you can never have too much pitching", when Morrow comes back more than likely there will be an opening for him. Maybe an injury or other something will create the opening. Will he be good?
SF won 2 championships & St Louis 1. The stiff price they paid, paid off. Texas is the most recent very strong team that did not get any championships. Maybe they did not do enough at the trade deadline.

dan gordon - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#288959) #

The Giants did a great job in 2010 and 2012 of adding valuable parts for their World Series winning teams, without giving up top prospects. In 2010, for example, they added Cody Ross on waivers, and he turned into one of their best players the rest of the way. They added Javier Lopez, Mike Fontenot, Ramon Ramirez and Jose Guillen in trades for some decent, but not great prospects. In 2012, they added Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence, who were both terrific, and again, gave up only decent prospects/players like Nate Schierholtz, Charlie Culbertson and Tommy Joseph. Interestingly, the year they gave up a top prospect, Zack Wheeler, in 2011, it didn't work out. The player they got, Carlos Beltran, got hurt, and missed a lot of time, and they didn't make it, while Wheeler is developing into a possible star with the Mets.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#288962) #

Right, dan. It's the lower level transactions that interest me.

China fan - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#288966) #

Kevin Pillar demoted, Brad Glenn promoted. A great opportunity for the relatively unheralded 27-year-old Glenn, who has an OPS of .997 in his 30 games at Buffalo this year.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#288967) #

Interesting. I think all of us have wondered if his milb mashing this year might mean something.

In addition to his great overall line this year (.863ops), he's posted a massive 1.089ops vs. Lefties. in general he's been a lefty masher down there (.874ops vs. Lhp since 2011).

Then again, pillar's been great vs milb lefties too so it might not mean much.

Can't hurt to take a look.

electric carrot - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#288968) #

Right, dan. It's the lower level transactions that interest me.

Disagreed. I think on offense/defense bullpen and speed this team is playoff ready. I think we can make the playoffs maybe with low level transactions -- but if we make it and go on to face other teams' big game pitcher's in the playoffs I don't think this team measures up. If it we're playoff time nowI think all three of Oakland, Detroit and the Angels look like better bets in the playoffs than the Jays.

We've been waiting for 21 years. Let's not get cute. We need a big game pitcher for whatever that costs.

Gerry - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#288969) #

Someone on Twitter said the Jays are about to face lefthanded pitchers 8 out of the next 12 games.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#288970) #

" If it we're playoff time nowI think all three of Oakland, Detroit and the Angels look like better bets in the playoffs than the Jays. "

Its funny, though....No matter what numbers they put up in that pitcher's park in oakland, i just can't be impressed by a rotation led by scott kazmir and jesse chavez, and filled out by tommy milone and drew pomeranz.

And i definitely can't see that rotation used as an example of why we need to make a big deal for a big name pitcher.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#288971) #

EC, the only "big-game pitcher" out there is David Price. Jeff Samardzija is not. If the Cubs are asking for Norris, Sanchez and Pompey for Samardzija, what exactly would the Rays want for Price from a divisional rival? A 51% stake in Rogers? Alberta?

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#288972) #

Glenn's minor league split since 2011 against LHP is .275/.356/.518; Pillar's is .362/.398/.533. Pillar has been better than Glenn against RHP as well. Plus there's the defensive and baserunning advantage. I don't get it. Pillar did not appear to be happy when he was pulled for Gose last night; maybe that has something to do with it.

China fan - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#288973) #

Brad Glenn was actually in the middle of a plate appearance (in a suspended Buffalo game) when he got the promotion. Just for the record, he was in a 1-2 count in the AB that he'll never complete.

Jonathan Diaz has been DFA'd to make room for Glenn on the 40-man roster.

I suppose Glenn was, to some extent, competing with Dan Johnson in the category of "power hitter who could be useful on the major-league roster." In some ways, Johnson looked better: he's got more major-league experience and he has been destroying AAA pitching for much longer this year. But as Gerry noted, the Jays are going to be facing a lot of LHP over the next few games, and Johnson is a LHB, whereas Glenn is a RHB. Glenn also has more positional advantages, since he can play the outfield.

But I also agree with Mike: the real question is, why Glenn over Pillar, who is presumably a better defensive outfielder and base-runner than Glenn and is also a RHB and has the better splits?

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#288974) #

Last 2yrs as SP:

S.Gray (24): 25gs, 6.4ip/gs, 2.89era, 3.08fip, 3.25xfip, 3.39siera
M.Stroman (23): 5gs, 6.0ip/gs, 2.43era, 3.36fip, 3.49xfip, 3.41siera

S.Kazmir (30): 45gs, 5.7ip/gs, 3.52era, 3.44fip, 3.39xfip, 3.38siera
M.Buehrle (35): 49gs, 6.4ip/gs, 3.59era, 3.94fip, 4.14xfip, 4.25siera

J.Chavez (30): 15gs, 6.2ip/gs, 2.71era, 3.49fip, 3.50xfip, 3.55siera
D.Hutch (23): 15gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.86era, 3.92fip, 4.03xfip, 3.95siera

T.Milone (27): 40gs, 5.9ip/gs, 4.07era, 4.39fip, 4.35xfip, 4.23siera
R.Dickey (39): 50gs, 6.5ip/gs, 4.16era, 4.57fip, 4.28xfip, 4.18siera

D.Pomeranz (25): 12gs, 4.9ip/gs, 4.60era, 5.21fip, 4.43xfip, 4.67siera
J.Happ (31): 28gs, 5.2ip/gs, 4.70era, 4.44fip, 4.60xfip, 4.49siera

Close as is, even without taking their extreme opposite home parks into consideration.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#288975) #

"But I also agree with Mike: the real question is, why Glenn over Pillar, who is presumably a better defensive outfielder and base-runner than Glenn and is also a RHB and has the better splits"

I'm a big pillar advocate, but there's no denying that he's kinda sucked at the plate this year, even vs lefties.

I don't mind them searching for the hot bat. That's how they got Tolleson's hot streak.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#288976) #

John Lott noted this on Twitter: "So Pillar apparently hastened his departure by reacting angrily when Gose was sent up to pinch-hit for him last night."

China fan - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#288977) #

Okay, we're now getting some explanations from Gibbons on the Brad Glenn promotion, but I think he's being diplomatic and a little evasive in his comments. His first comment: "We're looking for a little more thump from the right side." (But that's true only if you look at their 2014 Buffalo numbers in isolation, so I am dubious that this is the real reason.) His second comment, when asked about Pillar's angry reaction to being replaced by Gose last night: "It didn't help. This is a team game." So, as Mike suggested, this is the more likely explanation. Some fans even say that they saw Pillar tossing his bat down the dugout tunnel after Gose pinch-hit for him. It's a little odd, I hadn't imagined that Pillar would have any attitude issues. Let's hope it's a minor blip in his Jays career, and he'll learn what he has to learn from it.

China fan - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#288978) #

One last footnote on Brad Glenn: his Twitter handle (@bombs_punchies) is a witty commentary on the tendencies of power hitters.

Gerry - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#288979) #

I saw it on the broadcast too. He did seem to lightly throw his bat down the stairs by the tunnel and then didn't seem happy on the bench.

Its an interesting move. It sends a message, the question is how consistent will that message be from management?

electric carrot - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#288980) #

And i definitely can't see that rotation used as an example of why we need to make a big deal for a big name pitcher.

Sure. Good point. Maybe Oakland has more depth than top tier talent. The pitcher's I'm thinking of on the teams I mentioned are:

Verlander,
Scherzer
Sanchez
Kazmir
Weaver

I, personally, don't like the matchup between any of our guys and one of those guys at the moment. With the Shark or Price I like our chances.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#288981) #

I hadn't imagined that Pillar would have any attitude issues. Let's hope it's a minor blip in his Jays career, and he'll learn what he has to learn from it.

I'd guess it's less an attitude issue than simply frustration bubbling over. He's been successful all through the minors, but hasn't been able to get anything going in the majors; getting pulled in a close game may have just snapped his patience.

Anyway, I'd guess Glenn gets a week or two to see if he can carry his hot bat into the majors while Pillar goes to Buffalo to take some yoga classes.

scottt - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#288982) #

Small sample size effects can be seen in the fact that in the few games since he's come back colby has already chopped his negative defensive war from -7.1 to -6.1 on fangraphs, which has already improved his war from -0.1 to +0.2.

I personally prefer B-R where in his career Rasmus is worth 2.2 defensive WAR over his 6 year career.
Also, offensive WAR + defensive WAR is not equal to WAR because that double counts the positional adjustment.

At best, Rasmus could finish the year with a defensive component near zero and an offensive component around 1.7, and that's assuming he plays to last year's level the rest of the year, 2.1 if he matches his career year of 2010.

So most likely, he finishes below 2 WAR which is replacement level value.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#288984) #

Very cool to see Bo Jackson. Most amazing athlete I've ever seen.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#288985) #

So most likely, he finishes below 2 WAR which is replacement level value.

Nope. 0 WAR is replacement level value; 2 WAR is average major league performance by a regular (roughly).

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#288986) #

The 40 year old advantage. If you drop a line drive, no one thinks that it is on purpose.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#288987) #

i just can't be impressed by a rotation led by scott kazmir and jesse chavez, and filled out by tommy milone and drew pomeranz

Sonny Gray says hello.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#288988) #

don't let these runs score, drew.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#288989) #

Another Yankee strike zone tonight. That pitch to Gose was very low.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#288990) #

"I personally prefer B-R where in his career Rasmus is worth 2.2 defensive WAR over his 6 year career.
Also, offensive WAR + defensive WAR is not equal to WAR because that double counts the positional adjustment.

At best, Rasmus could finish the year with a defensive component near zero and an offensive component around 1.7, and that's assuming he plays to last year's level the rest of the year, 2.1 if he matches his career year of 2010.

So most likely, he finishes below 2 WAR which is replacement level value. "

Rasmus has been worth 13.2fwar and 12.2bwar in his 5.5yr career, which is 2.2 - 2.4 war/yr in his young career, well over replacement, and comfortable above "average regular starting mlber". Of course, that includes injuries and missed games. On a per game basis he's been closer to a 3.0war type player when he's in the lineup, which is just plain good. Granted, with his platoon splits, you'd rather sit him vs. lefties.

as for his war this year, those defensive ratings can turn on a dime in these small samples, so his war could change quick.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#288991) #

there's some clutch 2 out rbis there. nice.

and yeah Mike I'm biting my lip on the strike zone tonight. Looks like the ump did try to give some back to hutch after he gave some super questionable strikes to kuroda. we'll see where the zone ends up in the end, but so far it's stinky.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#288992) #

Huge hit from Melky there.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#288993) #

I thought ball four to Kawasaki could have been called strike three. That PA ultimately helped lead to two runs for the Jays.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#288994) #

actually Mike the zone has been fairly even, if crappy.

from Brooksbaseball I count:

TOR: 7 balls called strikes, 2 strikes called balls
NYY: 8 balls called strikes, 1 strikes called balls

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#288995) #

I wonder if Gibby will let Hutch face the top of the order again on 95 pitches. One more clean inning and he can salvage a pretty decent start out of this.

tough call here. could go either way.

scottt - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#288996) #

The definition says: 0-2 WAR replacement level, 2-5 regular, 5+ All-star.

Gardner, for example, has had 7 WAR one year, Rasmus' best is 4.8

The numbers indicate an average defender. The offensive potential is clearly there, but the results not always.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#288997) #

well, if the bullpen was short enough that rasmussen was his best option in the 7th inning of a one run game, then gibby probably shoulda kept hutch in.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#288998) #

Ditto. Can't believe Rasmussen was used there.

I think I've seen him throw like 80 pitches in the big leagues and it feels like 75 of them are balls.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#288999) #

Per fangraphs:

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth +2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically less than +1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around +2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart:

Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR

Rasmus's full-season fWAR's have ranged from 0.5 and 1.1 (2011 and 2012) to 2.6 (2009) and 4.0 and 4.8 (2010 and 2013). So, two scrub/role player-quality years, one solid starter year, one year on the borderline between good player and All-Star, and one All-Star year. He has a demonstrated track record of performing at a high level, but his performances have varied quite a bit from year to year. He's been a nice player to have on the roster during his arb years, but I'm not sure I would be looking to give him a long-term contract.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#289000) #

a few weeks ago in a similar situation, Gibby pinch hit for Lind with Kevin Pillar, and it worked.

hmm.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#289001) #

Lind is a career 216/261/337 hitter against LHP.

He's also a career 100/100/100 hitter against Thornton (1/10 with 8 Ks).

Yeah, I'm pinch hitting for Lind there.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#289002) #

that's the 2nd probably catchable ball that Gose has given up on today. the other was the 3rd inning cervelli double.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#289003) #

I'm pinch hitting for Lind there.

Might as well. You lose the DH, of course (assuming Encarnacion's feeling up to playing first base at all - if he isn't, I dunno what you do- ) but that was the game situation right there.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#289004) #

Brad Glenn has played a few games at first base this year. You could pinch-hit him and have him play first.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#289005) #

you could move Francisco to first, and stick tolleson at 3rd.

and Robertson is absolute murder on lefties, too. Gibbons should not be letting all these lefties face him.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#289006) #

not blaming gibby for this one, but he didn't help.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#289007) #

Glenn has been crushing lefties this year. It would have been an interesting gamble to use him. Glenn might have been overwhelmed by the situation (his first ML PA in a late-inning pressure situation against the Yankees). On the other hand, at 27 years old, he has accumulated some experience in the game.

My guess is that Gibbons wanted the veteran Lind, not the unproven rookie, in there in that situation (devil you know, etc.).

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#289008) #

I don't want Lind facing Matt Thornton for a couple of reasons. He's not likely to be effective, and in that situation, he is much more likely to injure himself.

Navarro brought his A game this series. We'll see if he can keep it going. It makes a big difference.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#289009) #

Has anyone figured out what has happened. Pitch good for three, pitch like someone who's forgotten what a baseball is for an inning, then pitch good again!

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#289010) #

Watching Hutch, I see a mid-rotation Starter, someone who can't be anything more.

Four games with Chicago next. This is another series they must win.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 25 2014 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#289011) #

Sorry guys, that idiot drives me crazy. Such talent, he forgets he has it.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#289013) #

With the White Sox sending 3 lefties to face the Jays beginning on Friday night, it is unclear to me what the plan is. Maybe Glenn DHs twice and maybe plays LF once with Cabrera DHing. Presumably Rasmus starts all three games although ideally he would get a day off against Sale. What happens with Kawasaki, Francisco and Tolleson? I'd probably sit Francisco all three games at this point, but you can make a case that he should play except when Buehrle starts. Hopefully Bautista is back in the lineup. They need him.

Maldoff - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#289015) #

Tolleson was unavailable last night due to blurred vision. It is unclear what his status will be going forward

Chuck - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#289016) #

It is unclear what his status will be going forward

Tolleson's MLB career has been brief, with just over 200 PAs (so a big sample size caveat definitely applies), but his OPS splits are 830/387. Even if his "true" ability against LHP is more like a 750 OPS, that would definitely still be useful on this roster.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#289017) #

Tolleson had no platoon differential whatsoever over his minor league career (at least back to 2011) according to minorleaguecentral.com. He hit .271/.364/.394 against LHP (402 PAs) and .281/.361/.395 against RHP (905 PAs). You probably want to heavily regress his major league splits to the typical 6% (IIRC).

Mike Green - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#289019) #

And I doubt that you end up with a .750 OPS against LHP. The big item is his IsoP- he's at .177 so far this year in the major leagues and that is not likely to be sustained (given his minor league record and his subjectively observed power). Overall, if he played 2/3 of the time against RHP, he would likely hit about .235/.305/.350 (right around where ZIPS and Steamer have him). It would probably break down to about .240/.315/.365 vs LHP and .230/.300/.345 vs RHP.

The big issue is that Francisco has never hit lefties at all (.163/.203/.218 over his career) and hasn't this year either, and is weak defensively at third base. Kawasaki has not exactly been Rogers Hornsby against LHPs either, but at least he gives you something with the glove.

Chuck - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#289020) #

You probably want to heavily regress his major league splits to the typical 6% (IIRC).

That would make an interesting study (at least the results would be interesting, not so much the hard work). How well do minor league platoon splits translate to the majors? Is there a subset of players who are more easily exploited, for reasons beyond chance, by same-side pitching than they were in the minors? What characteristics do members of such a subset share?

bpoz - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#289022) #

We have made some big trades in the distant past & 2 recently, Dickey & the Marlins. Big trades scare me.

Big game/name pitchers do not necessarily do well in the playoffs. Verlander has been in a few playoffs but has not been great enough so far. King Felix has not had the opportunity yet. Great or good J Guzman, J Beckett, J Morris & M Cain have carried their teams to their championships IMO. Still you get to the playoffs by being a v good team.

Once in the playoffs who knows. Does anyone know of a big game/name pitcher only lasting a few innings in a playoff game? I how does his manager have the courage to pull him?

Chuck - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#289024) #

And I doubt that you end up with a .750 OPS against LHP.

Fair enough. I pulled that out of the air. I concur that a 750 minor league OPS should not project to a 750 major league OPS.

I do maintain, however, that on this particular Lawrie-less roster, Tolleson (regardless of his true ability) should be playing vs LHP. Which is its own particular brand of sadness.

Francisco and Tolleson. The new Mulliniks and Iorg?

Mike Green - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#289026) #

Francisco and Tolleson. The new Mulliniks and Iorg?

For the time being, yes. Hopefully within a month or so, Lawrie is back and Anthopoulos has acquired an everyday second baseman (Zobrist, Beckham, perhaps Pennington). You can then have Kawasaki or Goins in the backup middle IF role, Francisco in the back-up 3B/LH big bat role, a RH 4th OF (Welcome Back, Kevin) and a back-up catcher for a serviceable 4 man bench.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#289028) #

It's interesting that Francisco, like Tolleson, was also fairly flat in the minors (811/963) though is much less so in the majors (406/798). Could it simply be that a vulnerability to breaking balls is less an issue when the quality of those breaking balls isn't as high, as would be the case in the minors?

Maybe. Francisco is certainly vulnerable to the split from the RHP. One interesting thing about Francisco's platoon splits in the minors and majors is that the major difference in his performance against LHP between minors and majors is the large decline in IsoP rather than K rate. His GB rate is significantly higher against LHP in the majors. I suspect that that might be partially fixable if he had more PAs against LHP in the majors, but it's not likely that he will because his overall performance isn't good enough.

uglyone - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#289030) #

I'll mention again that the Bisons' 3B Goerdert has been a lefty-masher (i.e. .900+ops) for most of his milb career. more likely to hit LHP well in mlb than tolleson, imo.

uglyone - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#289033) #

Milb splits from minor league central (go back as far as 2011):

Vs. LHP

3B Goedert (29): 508pa, .904ops
2B Kawasaki (33): 50pa, .876ops
3B Francisco (27): 127pa, .811ops
2B Tolleson (30): 402pa, .758ops
2B Goins (26): 477pa, .630ops

Vs. RHP

3B Francisco (27): 256pa, .963ops
2B Tolleson (30): 905pa, .761ops
3B Goedert (29): 1123pa, .760ops
2B Goins (26): 1183pa, .745ops
2B Kawasaki (33): 160pq, .635ops

Chuck - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#289034) #

I believe that Tolleson's success thus far this season vs LHP, even if he's in a big ol' skid this June, will continue to buy him playing time if he's healthy. I would imagine he'd have to continue his skid for awhile before any move were made to replace him with another RHB (like Goedert).

Further, Tolleson having both 2B and 3B on his resume helps his cause.

Ryan Day - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#289035) #

Further, Tolleson having both 2B and 3B on his resume helps his cause.

He's also played SS and OF. And I recall reading somewhere that he was also the emergency catching backup. Pretty useful guy to have around as long as he hits a little.

Gerry - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#289036) #

Tolleson wearing glasses today. He had an allergic reaction to new contacts he received on Monday.

92-93 - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#289040) #

Where's Jim Negrych when you need him?

It's hard to have a big issue with Gibbons letting Lind hit for himself in the 7th when the team has only 3 bench players and one of them can barely see, another is your backup catcher, and the third has never had an MLB PA.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 26 2014 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#289063) #

Of course, the guy without a ML PA happens to be 27, has almost 2500 minor-league PAs, and has been raking against LHP this year. It's not like fans were clamoring for Mitch Nay to pinch-hit for Lind in that situation.

Still, it wasn't exactly an ideal situation to introduce Glenn to the big leagues. Gibbons's decision is defensible in that respect.

In any event, it's unfortunate that the Jays played the final game of the Yankees series without a viable pinch-hitter for Lind or the other LH batters in the lineup.

Jays vs. Yankees - June 23-25 | 146 comments | Create New Account

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