Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Draft Day

Draft day is here. The Jays pick at #9 and #11 in the first round. The draft begins at 7pm and if you have the MLB Network on your Rogers cable you can watch it live. The Jays should have made their two first round picks by 8pm. The draft will run two rounds tonight. Rounds 3-10 will go tomorrow starting at 1pm and the draft will run to its conclusion on Saturday.

Who will the Jays pick? Most draft experts have the Jays selecting two of three players, Trea Turne,r Touki Toussaint or Jeff Hoffman. Note that in their final mock Baseball america suggests the Jays will take a college catcher, Max Pentecost.

Toussaint fits the Jays recent profile, a raw high school pitcher. Toussaint only took up pitching a few years ago and while he has talent he has yet to develop consistency which is why he would be available when the Jays pick.

If the Jays select Turner it would harken back to the JP Ricciardi era when the Jays selected Russ Adams and Aaron Hill. Turner is a college shortstop who was a consensus top pick before the season began. Turner played poorly over the first half of this season and his stock dropped, but he has picked up his play and his ranking over the second half.

Hoffman was a projected top 4 pick until a month ago when he had to have Tommy John surgery. Obviously a team picking him will have to wait to see him pitch. There is also some debate about how much to pay an injured pitcher like Hoffman. He has little leverage so do you low ball him to save money?

Pentecost is a college catcher, the highest rated college catcher in the draft.

Speaking of money Shi Davidi suggested last week that the Jays might be watching their dollars in the draft. It will be interesting to see if the Jays select players who need an over slot deal in later rounds. Will the Jays punt the middle rounds of the draft this year to give them money to spend in rounds 11 plus when the cap does not apply?

Finally there has been some suggestion that the Jays will adopt a less risky approach to the draft this year. There has been little confirmation of what a less risky approach might mean but picking players you know you can sign could be a good first step.

I will post the final mock draft Jays selections as they come in this morning, final mocks are in bold.

Keith Law ESPN (June 5th Mock): #9 - Pentecost; #11 - Hoffman

Keith Law ESPN (June 3rd Mock): #9 - Toussaint; #11 - Hoffman

Keith Law ESPN (Top 100): #9 - Aaron Nola; #10 - Luis Ortiz; #11 - Derek Hill; #12 - Brad Zimmer; #13 - Touki Toussaint; #14 - Tyler Beede; #18 - Turner; #25 - Hoffman

John Manuel Baseball America (June 1st Mock): #9 - Turner: #11 - Hoffman

John Manuel Baseball America (June 5th Mock): #9 - Max Pentecost: #11 - Hoffman

Perfect Game/Baseball Prospectus: #9 - Turner; #11- Hoffman

Jim Callis MLB Pipeline (June 5th Mock): #9 - Turner: #11 - Hoffman

Jonathan Mayo MLB Pipeline (June 5th Mock): #9 - Turner: #11 - Hoffman

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT.

Draft Day | 179 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#287576) #

I love draft day - I'm hoping that Trea Turner & Max Pentecost get drafted before the Jays pick as I'm not excited by either.
Because of the long lag time between the draft & ML production in baseball, I'm always opposed to drafting for need, for balance (pitchers vs. position players) or fastest to the show in the early rounds - this draft is said to strong in pitching, so if the jays 1st 10 picks are all pitchers, that's okay.

AA has said that the jays will tweak their approach - that's fine, but I hope it doesn't involve going the Deck McGuire safe route or to stop taking chances with injured players.

I'd be happy with Toussaint/Hoffman/Holmes/ReidFoley/Fedde types especially if the jays can save money for some tough signs later in the draft

I like Monte Harrison @ 49 but metafour informs that that's likely a pipedream

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#287579) #

A.A. needs to take the consensus best possible person. With the two picks, I want someone who can get here fast, and a stud HS pitcher. Then pay real attention to who fell to pick #49, before picking.

Brent S - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#287580) #

There were earlier rumours that Pentecost might fit in #4 as a deep-under-slot pick for the Cubs. I can see similar logic with the Jays, as they may feel that the depth in this draft class is more beneficial than the talent at the top.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#287581) #

Shi Davidi gives a little more detail on the changes Anthopoulos has made this year:

What will be different is the way Blue Jays weigh risk, something that emerged as part of a wider-scale re-evaluation of their draft process.

�Ultimately all these guys have risk, but how much risk are you willing to take on? That factors,� Anthopoulos says in a recent interview with Sportsnet Magazine. �I�d say a big part of refining our process is maybe we�re starting to examine the level of risk we�re willing to take.�

How so?

�Just anything,� he replied. �More risk, most likely, more reward, and we may just modify it slightly. It doesn�t mean we�ll be risk-averse, but maybe not take the same level of risk. We�re just trying to balance it out a little bit more as we�re going through it. That�s not to say we�re not looking for talent, upside, all that kind of stuff. We�re trying to balance it.�

Anthopoulos might be talking about taking fewer chances on hard-to-sign guys like Beede and Bickford (if that was even the case with Bickford -- seems like it was the Jays who backed out due to health concerns) but I think he's talking mostly about the philosophy he initially espoused of going with the high-upside types over more projectable talent. I can see how picks like D.J. Davis might have caused them to re-assess whether toolsy, athletic hitters are really the best bets, especially with your top picks. And I probably agree that athleticism was emphasized too much in previous years. On the other hand, it was always part and parcel of that high-upside philosophy that you'd miss on a lot of picks but hopefully end up with the occasional superstar. So to re-assess after a few years, presumably because they haven't hit on a superstar yet, well� I don't know. I get where they're coming from but I also wonder if it's a reaction to a small sample size. That said, they of course are making their assessments with a lot more information and knowledge than we have, and I trust they know what they're doing. And even the extent of the philosophical change we don't really know -- could in fact be "tweaking" or could be something more. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Here's the link to the Shi Davidi article -- it's a good one:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-must-take-advantage-of-2014-draft/

Drunk Jays Fans also has a post on the draft, and looks in particular at Hoffman, Touissant, and Turner (the most rumoured guys for the Jays). From what I can see there, video included, I'd prefer the two pitchers over Turner.

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2014/06/05/the-djf-2014-draft-preview/

John Northey - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#287582) #

Lots of variables at play and it is hard to know what the right thing/wrong thing is at the time.

Looking back at 2010 here I see comments...

Keith Law: Syndegaard pick was crazy - I can't believe he went on day one
Pistol: Deck McGwire is a bit of a surprise for me. Thought it was going to be Sale, or Cox if they were ambitious.
Chris DH: Not sure that this is a true signability pick - Deck McGuire was ranked 7th by Baseball America and MLB Bonus Baby and ranked 9th by PNR Scouting. And 13th by Keith Law/ESPN.
Mike Green: I am disappointed. Cox, Sale and Grandal were all on the board
Mylegacy: I'm not happy - I'd MUCH RATHER had had Josh Sale
Note: above ones are talking about Josh Sale, not Chris Sale.
Chris DH: I am not overly excited with this pick but not sure I would have been overly thrilled with 2B-3B Cox (limited power potential), OF J.Sale (limited to corner) or LHP Chris Sale (might be relegated to bullpen)
Kelekin: Syndergaard wasn't even on BA's Top 200, so that came out of left field. I am disappointed that we couldn't have at least tried getting Wilson, Allie, or Cole.
ayjackson: Seiler's review of Syndergaard is very promising - as Mylegacy has alluded too. He projected him as high as the supplemental round. We have to remember that that pick was not protected, so for the Jays to find someone signable with as much upside as the kid seems to have, it's a good pick...maybe their best.

Not picking on certain people. Just interesting to see how many wanted the wrong Sale. Josh had a good year in A ball in 2012 then missed 2013 and has a 669 OPS in A+ this year at age 22 in LF. Syndergaard was seen as a value pick who many regret the Jays trading for a guy who had just won a Cy Young award. In the first round post McGuire we see Chris Sale with 18.7 WAR, 2 guys in the 2-3 WAR range, and 4 more with 0.1 or negative WAR. IE: there really wasn't much that made it quickly outside of Chris Sale by the time the Jays picked and few were pushing for the Jays to take him and the only comment anyone here seemed to make was that Sale might be limited to bullpen use.

So who above would trade McGuire for Josh Sale now? :)

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#287585) #

I still think that the Deck McGuire pick was a poor one. The whole notion behind it was that he was a "high-upside" pitcher. I didn't see that at all in the scouting video.

McGuire's progress after drafting was poor enough that he had very little trade value. Grandal ended up an important part of the package for Mat Latos. Zack Cox was a disappointment, but did end up netting the Cards Edward Mujica.

Spifficus - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#287587) #

I thought McGuire was the exact opposite of a high upside pick. Wasn't he an extreme safety pick that was enough of a 'sure thing' to become a mid-rotation starter that he was expected to go in the single digits? Sure, he was 6'6", but that was more about providing innings in bulk than projecting more velocity.

Also, man Turner's fast. He even looks fast when playing the DJF video in slow motion.

With all the names floating around, I can't wait to see who's selected. I do hope Holmes is one of them, though - I'm a sucker for combining stuff and feel.

hypobole - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#287589) #

I have no clue as to who the Jays should draft, but I do have some thoughts.

First, the Davidi comment on the Jays draft budget is baffling. Under the new CBA, teams knew their maximum spending limit as soon as the regular season ended last year. and would have budgeted the money. The draft artificially depresses the draftees bonuses, so any well run organization realizes this is not an area where underspending makes any financial sense.

Second, in keeping with this theme, last years draft was a huge black eye for the Jays. Most of the derision was directed at fact the Jays once again used a top pick on a player they failed to sign, but the fact they ended up with over $400,000 in unused pool money was even worse as it showed an embarrassing lack of foresight and contingency planning.

Third, I have less of a problem with "safe picks" that most. The Jays development system isn't exactly renowned for its abilities. It would seem to me the safe pick would have less needed development. The Deck pick is thought of as a huge mistake, but to me, it's not looking any worse than the D. J. Davis pick.

Finally, I believe the Syndergaard pick, while a huge coup for the Jays possibly ended up causing future problems. With Noah, Jays hit the jackpot on a 1st round pick they rated much higher than most teams, as well as signing him well underslot. This led to using high picks on guys ahead of (or well ahead of) where most of the industry saw them (e. g. Jake Anderson) or the underslot "value pick" of Joe Musgrove. I can't think of an example of any of these looking like they're panning out.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#287590) #

My memory was that McGuire was the safe, low ceiling, quick to the show type pick - Chris Sale was the riskier, high upside type of pick.

In 2009, the Pirates took Tony Sanchez as a deep-under slot guy, to spend more later, so far I don't think it's worked out - I'm all for trying save money for tougher picks but not by taking what I consider pedestrian guys.

finch - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#287591) #

I believe the biggest blunder by the Jays was not signing Kris Bryant and Aaron Nola :)

It'll be interesting whom they take. I pray that Nick Gordon falls to us or Tyler Kolak or Alex Jackson. IMO, our picks will be: Touki Toussaint, TiQuan Forbes, and in the 2nd round...Spencer Adams OR Michael Chavis.

bpoz - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#287592) #

I do not like the White Sox GM. I have felt that he has taken advantage of the Jays.
So I cannot feel good for them that they got lucky with C Sale.The scout that pushed for him deserves praise. The high lights of the scouting report was that he was left handed, tall 6'6", and threw 97 mph. But I do not trust scouting reports. It was also said that he most likely would be a reliever.
He started the year in the minors, not sure if as a reliever or starter and then was promoted that year to the majors to stay. He started in the majors as a reliever and then became a starter. He has looked great in the majors.
Actually, as a pro he has never pitched badly. He is 6'6" tall but is too thin at 180 lbs.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#287597) #

I read somewhere that the jays may be backing off Toussaint because of signing demands - I would hope that if they like him, then draft him with the protected pick & take your chances - failure to sign a protected pick isn't a catastrophe.

Gerry - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#287598) #

Keith Law is out with his final mock and he too has the Jays taking Pentecost at 9 with Hoffman at 11. Although he does say the Jays are a big muddle.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#287599) #

Here is an interesting oral history of the Cardinals' 2009 draft.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#287601) #

Turner sounds like he could be the SS equivalent of DJ Davis or Anthony Gose. I'm wary of drafting positional prospects whose hit tool does not rate strongly. Although Turner has come on strong in recent months, so maybe the Jays feel there is good hitting potential there.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#287602) #

Gerry - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#287605) #

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo from MLB both have the Jays with the Turner/Hoffman combination.

uglyone - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#287606) #

Don't know anything about the draft eligible players.

Can someone give me a shortlist of the highest pure upside guys available around the jays' slots? Pure upside only.

John Northey - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#287607) #

As I've said many times, the draft is largely a crapshoot. Educated one, but so many factors that it is impossible to know for years if you did well or not.

Lets look back at the first round of 2002, JPR's first draft and known for all-time as the 'moneyball' draft.
Top 5 picks: B.J. Upton a success (14.7 WAR). The other 4 totaled 0.3 WAR (one negative, one positive, 2 never made it)
6-10: Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder both over 20 WAR, Jeff Francis over 10, other 2 both negative
11-15: Scott Kazmir 19.7, rest under 10 but Joe Saunders and Khalil Greene in the 8+ range while other 2 under 3 (including Russ Adams for the Jays)
16-20: Nick Swisher , Cole Hamels, Denard Span all over 20, James Loney at 11.7
21-25: Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Cain 19+ each, 2 more 7/8, and a guy who never made it
26-30: Sergio Santos is the best of this batch with his 2.7. Nuff said.
31-41: 3 reached the majors, Mark Teahen's 2.4 the best.

For the Jays that year Dave Bush has the most WAR at 3.5, then Erik Kratz at 1.2 is the only other one over 0.

What do you see? Lots of talent all over the place but hardly in proper order until we see how 31-41 had tons of misses. By WAR the best picks were (in order) #6,17, 25, 16, 7, 20 (the picks with 20+ WAR). 2 in the top 10, 2 in the 20's and 2 in the teens. What a mess - seems almost random. However ML teams are good (generally) at finding the best in the first round, then it drops after that. Just 3 guys in round 2 reached 20 WAR, just 1 in the 3rd round (only one over 2) and same in the 4th. By the 5th round we start getting only a handful even reaching (7 reached) but gems still existed (Howie Kendrick drafted in 10th round for example). ML teams can find the talent for the most part but finding those gems is hard.

If I ran a team I'd be going for high upside everytime. Guys who get 5-10 WAR are out there and findable, but it is the star quality that you cannot get unless you blow $100+ million. AA has shown he can find gems in the majors so he should feel free to chase those high risk/high upside guys more. I'd love it if he grabs Beede in round 2 or later for example just because the upside is there even if he had a rough time showing it lately (as I understand it...I don't keep up with amateur ball).

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#287608) #

MLB has a site
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=draft
that lets you judge for yourself and easy to navigate.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#287609) #

last years draft was a huge black eye for the Jays. Most of the derision was directed at fact the Jays once again used a top pick on a player they failed to sign, but the fact they ended up with over $400,000 in unused pool money was even worse as it showed an embarrassing lack of foresight and contingency planning.

Well, in terms of 'once again' using a top pick on an unsigned player, I take it the first instance you're referring to is Tyler Beede. It's hard to see how someone could complain about not signing Beede with a straight face, let alone trying to work up indignation. With the money Beede turned down they signed Norris, and with the pick in his stead they took Stroman, and in 2014 there's a reasonable chance they could have Beede if they want him anyway, but will take someone more highly rated. If they take him, they'd end up with Stroman and Norris for Beede, and Beede anyway. Not a lot to complain about there.

That leaves not signing Bickford last year with a protected pick. By all written accounts this year's draft is deeper in pitching and they may be able to do better than Bickford with the 11 pick. Most one can muster for Bickford now is probably a 'meh'.

And before Deck gets consigned to Russ Adams status, let's at least give him a complete chance. He's still 24, has a 2.29 ERA in his few AAA starts, and struck out 10 today in a day game.

I'm starting to sound as optimistic as uglyone. Maybe winning does that.

PeterG - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#287612) #

I think Jays will draft more college players this year, particularly tonight and tomorrow... We will know soon.

smcs - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#287615) #

Is the draft not being televised in Canada this year?

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#287616) #

Also, there was a recent scouting report on Bickford that was just so-so. And this year's draft is reportedly a strong one. The Jays may have dodged another bullet by losing out on Bickford.

uglyone - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#287618) #

Give in to the Blue Side, Dean!

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#287619) #

The college guys available around our pick has legitimate upside and I hope the Jays grab at least one. I'd be disappointed if we didn't grab at least one of Nola, Beede, Hoffman or even Brandon Finnegan.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#287621) #

Unsigned draft picks Beede and Bickford were considered a disgrace for the Jays and A.A. And for as long as there's a draft, that will never change. It doesn't matter you spend huge money to sign someone who becomes a poor signing. That's the risks with all signings. But being smart enough to not sign those players, is shameful, and that's stupid.

If you are offered very good money and turn it down shame on you. If, in the next draft, you get better money because you are that good, shame on you. Never shame on me. You are now three years behind in your career.

Beede is reported to have control issues throughout his entire College/University career. The Jays dodged that problem. Bickford is not doing well this year. Another problem dodged?

PeterG - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#287624) #

absolute poppycock. I think the stupidity lies elsewhere......we got Stroman as a result of not signing Beede and we will likely get someone better for not signing Bickford....

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#287625) #

I would rather draft a strong-hitting SS who projects as a 3B - like Corey Seager, whom I was hoping the Jays would draft - than a good-field, questionable-hit SS who projects to stay at short. Especially in the first half of the first round.

That is my concern with Turner, as well. It's not as though anyone is saying that Turner is Ozzie Smith defensively. However, he's not like Davis and Gose in that he does control the strike zone and make contact. The problem seems to be that he doesn't make a lot of hard contact which potentially makes him vulnerable to better pitching. I am still interested.

Gerry - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#287627) #

Just because a decision works out well doesn't make it a good decision.

The Jays failure to sign their first round picks was not the best strategy for the team. If it was a good strategy why don't more teams do it?

Now it does seem that the Jays do not receive much blame here within the industry, the blame tends to go to the players or the players families. But knowing the on field and off field attributes of a player are part of the draft process for most teams. Under AA the team had a policy that boils down to "money talks", as in when millions of dollars are on the table a player will take it. The Jays didn't call to check on demands, they assumed the player would sign. That assumption turned out to be incorrect.

My opinion is that the Jays process was faulty, they did get unlucky to pick guys who were willing to say no to the money, but then they got lucky with their compensation picks.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#287630) #

I'm still interested in Turner, despite my previous comments. There is risk there, but a good-fielding, very fast SS with some decent hitting potential has some appeal. He also seems to have been derailed for a while by an ankle injury (prior to which he had been turning some heads). If he has fully recovered and can get back on the developmental fast track, he could be an interesting choice. Tough call. He does seem like the kind of player that would interest the Jays.

John Northey - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#287631) #

I suspect the Jays have a multi-pronged approach. You draft the best you can find who might take the money you have available (whatever that might be) then you do a secondary process checking up on the player again and seeing if they are worth it or worth more or worth less. Sometimes other stuff comes out after the fact. Perhaps the Jays keep talking with more and more scouts (beyond their own) and hear rumours that they confirm suggesting a player isn't worth what they thought he was ahead of time (other clubs scouts might get looser lips after the draft for example). Sometimes dumb luck prevails too.

Look at any draft and you'll see players are not picked in the order of value they provide and often one of the top 10 doesn't even reach. In 2006 two players were taken before Longoria and both have ERA's over 5. Brad Lincoln was the 4th overall pick with Clayton Kershaw #7 and Lincecum & Scherzer #10/11 after a guy who didn't make it yet (Billy Rowell - hasn't played since 2011). From pick 12 to 44 (the rest of the 1st round) only 1 other player has reached 10 WAR (Ian Kennedy).

MatO - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#287632) #

The draft is apparently on MLBTV which is listed as channel 415 on Rogers.

PeterG - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#287633) #

with all of the ss in the system....Lugo, Barreto, Urena, Gudino, Ramirez......and Reyes under contract for 3 more years + option, I would think that it is likely the Jays would be looking to convert Turner into a 2b who could rise quickly......

I would prefer Hoffman and Toussaint but if the latter has unreasonable demands, am ok with Turner.....I do think Hoffman represents an opportunity too good to pass up.

metafour - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#287635) #

Turner sounds like he could be the SS equivalent of DJ Davis or Anthony Gose. I'm wary of drafting positional prospects whose hit tool does not rate strongly. Although Turner has come on strong in recent months, so maybe the Jays feel there is good hitting potential there.
The thing with Turner is that he HAS hit nearly his entire college career. He hit just under .370 last season as a Sophomore in the ACC. The "issue" with his hit tool is that his swing is unorthodox which throws some people off. This isn't a kid who cant hit and you're hoping will project to hit in the future...it is a kid that has performed really well against top level competition, albeit with an odd swing which may or may not be a future problem. I'm not sold on him by any means...but dont mistake his question marks as: "he cant hit".

hypobole - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#287636) #

Gerry is correct. Bad process leading to good results is still bad process. We were lucky Stroman was still on the board at 22 - we'd already passed on him (as well Mike Wacha) to take frikkin' DJ Davis at 17.

And Bickford was brutal - overdrafting a guy, saving money to pay him overslot and scrambling at the end to find enough players worthwhile to give all the excess money, and failing even to do that.

Hodgie - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#287637) #

I am loathe to use herd mentality as a criteria for evaluating strategy. The herd was slow (and in some cases still resistant) to value OBP, defensive shifts, platoons, leverage etc. despite overwhelming evidence of their benefits. Whether or not it is successful should be measured on the merits of its outcomes and not its utilization by an industry commonly stuck in the dogma of the past.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#287638) #

One must be slightly amused at our former picks Aaron Nola, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez being picks likely to go in the first 2 rounds. Imagine having them in the system already, along with Kris Bryant.

I have to agree with most on Turner, but I'm not high on Toussiant either. If we end up with Turner it's not the end of the world if he can hit for average, but usually this is the type of player we see in the 2nd round. I think Turner's junior year is a bit of a red flag but his Sophomore year was quite good. If Newcomb is available, I'd take him here in a heartbeat.

Based on reports alone, I quite like Grant Holmes. I don't mind the risk with Hoffman.

Pentecost is mixed for me. I like seeing consistency in college, and he's a player who has had an incredible junior season after two not so great years. I don't want us to buy high. Pentecost may be a true catcher, but Schwarber has the better bat (though he might not stick).

Zimmer would be a "meh" for me too. A lot of this draft class seems to be in that descriptive category. His numbers come from an inflated babip, and his base running ability is below average.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#287641) #

The jays did draft a highly successful, but unorthodox hitter in Chris Hawkins (2010) - that was a disaster - also Turner is no sure thing to stick @ ss - I don't mind Turner, but not @ 9 & 11

metafour - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#287643) #

The jays did draft a highly successful, but unorthodox hitter in Chris Hawkins (2010) - that was a disaster - also Turner is no sure thing to stick @ ss

Chris Hawkins was a successful hitter in HS...Turner was successful playing in one of the strongest conferences in the NCAA. There is a bit of a difference. Also...I dont think there is anyone questioning whether he can play SS anymore, the consensus is that he will be average at worst defensively...he routinely makes highlight plays. Hunter Pence is an example of a collegiate player who hit but was knocked for an unorthodox swing. He was seen as an overdraft in the 2nd round despite hitting .395 his JR year.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#287648) #

I think the only thing unorthodox about Hunter Pence's swing is his inability -not to- swing (he does well considering, though!).

I think the #8-12 area of the draft is really interesting. All these players are so close together.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#287652) #

Rob Neyer has written the best piece on the draft you're going to find, showing just how random it all is. Some excerpts:

The takeaway from articles about the NFL Draft? Nobody knows what they�re doing. No team or executive has consistently �beaten� the draft. There�s an average value for each draft pick, historically, and there�s no real evidence that anybody�s smart enough to beat that average. Which is sorta shocking, right? Doesn�t there have to be a big enough spread between the canniest executives and the non-canniest to show up in the draft results? You would think so, yeah. But apparently there is not�.

Are baseball teams good at judging amateur talent? Recently, Baseball Prospectus�s Russell Carleton looked at all the draft picks and their signing bonuses (or most of them, anyway) from 2003 through 2008. If teams are really good at judging talent, there should be a strong correlation between a player�s signing bonus and his eventual performance....

But no: Within particular rounds, there�s no correlation between bonus money and performance. �In other words,� Carleton writes, �teams are in effect drafting grab bags.�

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/the-ugly-truth-mlb-s-draft-can-t-match-nba-much-less-nfl-060514

Gerry - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#287653) #

Here is tonights drinking game:

Take a drink everytime someone says a players makeup is off the charts.

It won't take long to feel the effects.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#287655) #

Take a drink every time someone says the specific slot in a rotation a starter could have.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#287656) #

Just because a decision works out well doesn't make it a good decision.

OK, what if it's the case, as it may well have been, that they discovered something in Bickford's medicals that told them he was no longer worth it? And from there decided to wait a year and re-draft? Where, pray tell, is the mistake in that process? Should they have gone ahead anyway and paid him 1-9 money just to have a shiny first-round pick like all the other teams?

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#287657) #

1-10, I guess I should say.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#287662) #

You'll find A.A. and the Jays get "bad-mouthed" for not checking the Medicals on whomever they find with health issues. I'm usually saying, "What health issues!"

What are people to do, get Physicals on everyone before they're drafted. That will take over thirty days just for the first ten picks.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#287663) #

I remember many commentators raving about the Jays' 2007 picks shortly after the draft (with Ahrens being compared to Chipper Jones, etc). Here are the first ten players the team selected:

Ahrens
Arencibia
Cecil
Jackson
Magnuson
Tolisano
Eiland
Farina
Mills
Rzepczynski

Just a reminder that it takes time to determine the quality of a team's draft, and that hype often means little in the long run. The 2007 draft was supposed to be a veritable bonanza of talent, but pretty much everyone has fizzled (although Cecil has has a good career, first as a starting pitcher and now as a quality bullpen arm).

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#287664) #

That 2007 draft was definitely solid at the time, except for the fact that we took Arencibia (over-rated and thought to fall out of the 1st round) over Porcello, because of how cheap Rogers and JP were. Here's my favourite comment from 2007:

"slitheringslider - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#169503) #
In addition to Porcello, I kind of wish the Jays picked Matt Harvey with one of their early picks. Harvey was projected to be a first round pick but fell to the fourth round due to Boras reasons. "

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#287665) #

I remember Ricciardi describing Arencibia as a potential .240-.260 hitter with 20+ HR power. Little did he know he was describing JP's future career OBP.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#287667) #

I believe AA may have been trying to save a bit of money by drafting DJ Davis at #17 in 2012 ($1.75M signing bonus) instead of Corey Seager (selected at #18 - $2.35M bonus). Personally, I would have gone for Seager. Better to choose the better player and pay a bit more. Not sure if this would have allowed the Jays to net Stroman as well, though.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#287668) #

It could that the reason Toronto was looking at Max Pentecost is because they are not happy with their Catching prospects. I can see Trey Turner coming this way because they are not happy with SS prospects in the system, nor 2B prospects.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#287669) #

I think it's safe to say that the 1st pick by Anthopoulos has usually been much less interesting than his 2nd pick.

metafour - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#287670) #

It could that the reason Toronto was looking at Max Pentecost is because they are not happy with their Catching prospects. I can see Trey Turner coming this way because they are not happy with SS prospects in the system, nor 2B prospects.

That isn't how teams draft...and it most certainly isn't how we draft. They are looking at those two players because the Jays place high value in premium position players...ie: SS, Catcher.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#287671) #

Oh, and Gerry - if interested, I'm willing to do a write-up to review and preview Day 2, as I was unavailable last year but Sam seems to be busy (or at least not here yet!).

Gerry - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#287672) #

Thanks kelekin, sam was too busy today so just email anything you have to roster at battersbox dot ca and someone will post it.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#287673) #

With the Cubs selecting Schwarber, the draft just got a bit more interesting.

finch - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#287674) #

Come on Alex Jackson or Nick Gordon!!
Is the draft on telus tv anywhere??

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#287675) #

The whole draft is on MLB.com, no need for a television.

JB21 - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#287676) #

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2014/watch-live/

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#287677) #

Mariners must love that Jackson fell to them. Definitely the type of player they need to develop, this year's Wil Myers.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#287678) #

Still available: Conforto, Nola, Newcomb, Turner, Hoffman, Pentecost...

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#287679) #

Nola's gone. Pretty much by the number so far. Except for the Cubs.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#287680) #

Anyone BUT Turner - unless we've got an amazingly low pre-draft deal. Otherwise Hoffman for sure...

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#287681) #

Toussaint, Hoffman looks like the best combo if they want to save money for the later rounds.

ayjackson - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#287682) #

Hearing Pentacost here.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#287683) #

OK - two of Conforto, Hoffman and or Pentecost - and I'll be a happy man - might even have my self a wee drinky...

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#287684) #

If the Jays want a pitcher, should they take Hoffman, Toussaint, Newcomb, or someone else?

If a position player, Turner, Pentecost, or someone else?

Lots of choices. Hopefully they've got some top-notch scouting reports.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#287685) #

Lots of good choices.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#287686) #

Too bad about Nola, though. He would have been a nice arm to add to the system.

ayjackson - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#287687) #

Hearing Hoffman here. Hear here!

finch - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#287688) #

HOFFMAN!! Woot Woot!!

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#287689) #

That was the one I wouldn't have done.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#287690) #

Pre-draft underslot deal with Hoffman?

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#287691) #

Awesome. I'm happy with this pick and hope the Mets take Turner to get him off the board.

Come on Newcomb or Holmes!

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#287692) #

Hoffman, looks like saving money is the priority.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#287693) #

Hoffman - delicious!!!!

rfan8 - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#287694) #

This is the lower risk strategy?

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#287695) #

No, it's the economical strategy.

finch - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#287696) #

Smoke and mirrors....

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#287697) #

Osuna and Norris up in 15, Sanchez and Hoffman up in 16... yummy, yummy...

And at number 11: catching them all Pentecost!!

5.17 pm here on the west coast - time for dinner!

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#287698) #

Hoffman pick makes sense at #9 and not #11 because it is higher slot, and Hoffman isn't going to sign for a ton because he has no leverage and no purpose in going back since he'd miss all of his senior college season anyway.

Ehhh, Pentecost. I mean, it -could- turn out well, I just don't think he's exciting as the arms that were available here. At least he can stay at catcher. He might be an average hitter. That .442 babip this season was some kind of absurd, though.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#287699) #

Mylegacy: I know you live through blue-coloured glasses, but Osuna up in 2015? Really?

Gerry - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#287700) #

The Jays did say they were reevaluating risk. Toussaint is a major risk due to problems with the delivery, Pentacost is the safer pick.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#287701) #

Mike - why no to Hoffman?

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#287702) #

I said Pentecost gets picked if the Jays are unhappy with their minor league Catchers. Expect him to move fast.

MatO - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#287703) #

It's a lower risk strategy if they can save money on Hoffman and then spread the saved money around on some later round tough signings. Most of the guys we see getting drafted today are going to be failures so you might as well get as many kicks at the can as you can.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#287704) #

Pentecost is definitely an "organizational" pick. As good as Jimenez can be when he's healthy, when is he ever healthy? Who's next? Chung. This is the weakest Jays' farm system for catchers in a long, long time.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#287705) #

Osuna up in 15 - September - Really.

In fact I guarantee it. He and Norris are the best two starting pitchers we have and both are seriously good...

PeterG - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#287706) #

I think Hoffman was the right choice.....great value at 9.....could have been 1 or 2 without injury.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#287707) #

Chung has a real chance - new to catching, very athletic, great leader. If the rest comes together - we've a keeper...

whiterasta80 - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#287708) #

The second half of Mylegacy's comment is absolutely true. But to expect 2015 would be asking alot of Oz.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#287709) #

I miss JP Crawford.

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#287710) #

Pentecost had surgery on his arm. I don't think he's risk free either. He's likely to sign for less though.

If they re-invest those savings in the later rounds, that would remove some risks; more lottery tickets.

If not, well...

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#287711) #

Love the Hoffman pick based on talent, sign-ability and organizational need.

I prefer Pentecost to Turner but its not the sexy pick we've seen in the past with AA. However if were going safe college pick at least we're doing it at a premium position.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#287712) #

The biggest problem we face is who gets picked at #49. A.A. could go weird here. We just have to see who's left.

I like the Hoffman pitch. Without the injury, he was possible #1 pick and definite top 4.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#287713) #

I really have no idea what to make of the Jays' picks. I don't mind them passing on the HS arms that were available to them at 9 and 11.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#287714) #

Beede to San Fran....ouch! In that system and ball park he might look really good in a few years.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#287715) #

Like Scottt, I too think we'll be able to stash a few bucks from 9 and 11 to sprinkle on guys later in the draft - I'm positive we got a good one that way in the 30th last year with Rowdy Tellez.

MatO - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#287716) #

Pentecost looks pretty athletic for a catcher. He was 24-0 as a base stealer in college. I wonder if he has any Biggio in him.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#287717) #

"I know that I know nothing." � Socrates, ancient genius

"The takeaway from articles about the NFL Draft? Nobody knows what they�re doing. No team or executive has consistently �beaten� the draft. There�s an average value for each draft pick, historically, and there�s no real evidence that anybody�s smart enough to beat that average.... It seems the only way to �beat� the draft is to stockpile draft picks." � Rob Neyer, modern genius (or something)

The teams that know they know nothing have the advantage here, and that's what makes the Hoffman pick a great one. Not only do you get a top-3 talent, you get to low-ball him and parlay the extra money into an extra quality pick (or more). The only way to beat the system is through more picks and I think the Jays know that. (Or to use Scottt's analogy, the best way to win the lottery is to get yourself plenty of tickets.) Kudos to Anthopoulos.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#287718) #

I like the Pentecost pick. The success rate of TJ for power pitchers in the rotation is not great, and Hoffman is going to be getting a late start on development of the finer points of pitching. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up as an ace reliever. He's got the right last name...Hoffman and Pentecost isn't great, but it is much better than Arencibia and Ahrens.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#287719) #

Plus, Pentecost's makeup is off the charts.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#287720) #

I hear his makeup is L'Oreal...maybe I heard wrong...not sure...

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#287721) #

Maybe it's L'Oreal...or maybe it's Maybelline.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#287722) #

I was really high on Holmes and thought he was a steal. But that interview...oh my god. He's the Hodor of the MLB draft...

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#287723) #

One thing that gives me hope for Hoffman is the Giolito comp (surgery comp, that is). Giolito is having a solid year this year after his TJ surgery in 2012, although his walks are a bit high at 3.6 / 9 IP. Other than that his stats are outstanding. Hopefully Hoffman can follow in his footsteps.

I wonder if AA's scouting director told him all about the Pentecost the way that Paul Simon's girlfriend once did.

Well, I told her I was lost
And she told me all about the Pentecost
And I seen that girl as the road
To my survival

Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#287724) #

Hoffman and Pentecost both spent hours on their eyeblack for the scouts. Heck, it's more important than how you hit or throw or catch.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#287725) #

Nice one, Greenfrog.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#287726) #

Pretty soon it's going to be, "This guy's makeup is unreal. It's off the part of the charts that had to be stapled to the charts to make them bigger."

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#287727) #

Mike -Inquiring minds want to know - why slightly down on Hoffman?

hypobole - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#287731) #

3 Jays 2011 draft picks ended up going in the 1st round - Aaron Nola #10,Tyler Beede #14 and Luke Weaver #27.

As much as some are puzzled by kids decisions to turn down healthy bonuses to go to school, it's often a good decision, especially considering college amenities vs minor league lack of amenities.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#287733) #

It will be interesting to see how Hoffman, Newcomb, Beede and Toussaint compare in five years or so.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#287734) #

From Vox, lessons we could learn from the NFL:

Excerpt 1: The truth is that teams are imperfect talent evaluators, so having two later picks is better than a single early one. Risk diversification at work.

Excerpt 2: � a widely-known psychological bias called the overconfidence effect. As people are given more information, the accuracy of their analysis often hits a ceiling, but their confidence in it continues to increase. This tendency has been demonstrated in all sorts of areas, from bettors picking horses to psychologists making diagnoses. It's not hard to imagine that NFL general managers � who are given scouting reports on players that cover everything from their body fat percentage to their home life � fall victim to the same sort of overconfidence and, as Massey said, "fall in love" with certain players.

Excerpt 3: Thaler and Massey have found that, given a long enough timeframe, no teams are any better at accurately evaluating prospects than others. Sure, a GM might hit a hot streak over the course of a few drafts, but long-term, they estimate that 95 to 100 percent of the difference in teams' odds of striking gold with any one pick is driven by chance. So the key isn't drafting better � it's just drafting more. As Cassey noted, there are a few teams out there following his philosophy. In a recent interview, Eric DeCosta � assistant GM of the perennially-successful Baltimore Ravens � dropped a hint about the identity of one of them: "We look at the draft as, in some respects, a luck-driven process. The more picks you have, the more chances you have to get a good player. When we look at teams that draft well, it�s not necessarily that they�re drafting better than anybody else. It seems to be that they have more picks. There�s definitely a correlation between the amount of picks and drafting good players."

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#287735) #

Aww, I was hoping Gatewood would fall to us in the 2nd round. Maybe Harrison will drop to 50.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#287736) #

Brilliant draft pick. If they didn't take Harrison or SRF I would've been quite disappointed. Great pick at this point.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#287737) #

Sean Reid-Foley is a great pick. Anyone know for sure why he slid? I hope they can get another great pick at #83 tomorrow. It depends on who slides, but this pick is protected.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#287738) #

Probably signability concerns, seems to be the usual reason.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#287739) #

Reid-Foley seems to have great movement on his pitches. Watch the video here. The announcers were mighty impressed.

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#287740) #

Reid-Foley was ranked 18 and fell to 49. Sounds like somebody heading to college. However, it might be possible to offer him as much as the 9 and 11 pick got.

At any rate, that an extremely risky pick. Are second round pick protected?

PeterG - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#287741) #

If we are saving on Hoffman, can probably go over slot for Reid-Foley. Could possibly get an under slot in round 3 with all of tomorrow morning to work on it......Maybe we will see some college seniors the latter half of tomorrow. I like what the Jays have done so far.

Kelekin - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#287742) #

The first 3 rounds are protected picks.

I think we'll have the money for Reid-Foley, it was the right move.

scottt - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#287743) #

I would be worth punting a bunch of later rounds picks to free some cash.

As a protected pick it's worth the risk.

ayjackson - Thursday, June 05 2014 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#287744) #

I saw a Twitter exchange where some "expert" (?) was asked how far Foley would have to fall to go to college and the response was "probably the fourth round."

Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#287746) #

I think this is the most balanced draft the Jays have had under the AA regime if and only if Reid-Foley signs.

Richard S.S. - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#287747) #

Okay all you experts, we have pick #83 available tomorrow. This is near the highest ranked left (MLB.com):
J.B. Bukauskas HS, RHP, 5'11" 180 - wants first round money;
Jakson Reetz HS, C, 6'1" 195;
Milton Ramos HS, SS, 6'2" 165;
Chris Oliver Arkansas, RHP, 6'4" 185; and,
Carson Sands HS, LHP,6'3" 200.
I don't know who's what? Is there anyone special in what's still available we want?

Mylegacy - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#287749) #

According to MLB's site we've drafted the 13th (Hoffman), 18th (Reid-Foley) and 19th (Max Pentecost) best prospects in their "Top 200" list.

To quote the immortal Dick van Dyke (in Mary Poppins), "Supercalifragilasticexpialadious. (It's possible that I've put one to many "i's" in it).

Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#287752) #

I would think Reid Foley is our "hard to sign" pick, and I'd expect the string of projectable HS arms we never heard of to start tomorrow.

Kelekin - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#287754) #

Unfortunately, I won't have time to start a Draft Day 2 thread Gerry, as I had a last minute customer need me to help them with their website. :( However, I will do a full draft review this weekend.

TangledUpInBlue - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 04:48 AM EDT (#287755) #

Jim Callis lists Reid-Foley among the top 3 players who fell out of the first round:

"Reid-Foley was linked as high as No. 9 overall to the Blue Jays at one point and to several clubs in the bottom third of the first round on Draft Day. Prep pitchers are the riskiest Draft demographic and there was an especially deep crop of them this year, so some were bound to fall. Reid-Foley may have hurt his stock by not performing well in the Florida state all-star game, though he's still a proven high school performer with a 91-95 mph fastball, a quality slider and the ability to throw four pitches for strikes."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/how-the-cards-unfolded-analyzing-drafts-first-day-surprises?ymd=20140606&content_id=78500524&vkey=news_mlb

Kelekin - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 06:10 AM EDT (#287756) #

Some names for Day 2:

Jakson Reetz
Carson Sands
Keith Weisenberg
Dylan Cease
Cobi Johnson
Gavin LaValley
Zech Lemond
Jordan Luplow
Eric Skoglund

If the Jays want another catcher (who is a sure-fire catcher) they go with Reetz. If they want bloodlines, they go with Cobi Johnson, son of our roving pitching instructor Dane Johnson.

Beyonder - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#287757) #

The replacement pick for Bickford (11th) is unprotected as I recall.

Spifficus - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#287758) #

Nope. Picks get two years of protection in the new CBA. I'm can't remember if that's just for first rounders or any protected pick, but I presume the latter. So there's still one year of protection left on the Bickford Pick.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#287759) #

I am not usually much for high-school arms, but Reid-Foley already has an impressive slider and fastball. One or two more decent position player prospects from the second day, and I will be a happy man.

greenfrog - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#287760) #

Could the advanced slider mean that SRF will be at higher risk of injury in the coming years? Does FB + slider for a hard-throwing HS pitcher portend injury more than, say, FB + CB?f

soupman - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#287761) #

I hope the Jays are right on Pentecost, but the reports aren't all that glowing, and I don't think his numbers are very impressive especially since our other Kennesaw product hasn't reached his ceiling.

Compared to other drafts, you'd think there would be guys at 11 available with an elite hit tool and a bit more history. Or high school guys with huge upside. I dunno.

Everything else looks great, so maybe Penetecost will be a star and Hoffman and Reid-Foley will bust.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#287762) #

Could the advanced slider mean that SRF will be at higher risk of injury in the coming years? Does FB + slider for a hard-throwing HS pitcher portend injury more than, say, FB + CB?f

Probably. I imagine that the club will have him working on fastball command and the change-up primarily for a year or two. The one positive about drafting a high-school pitcher is that you can shape the workload for several of the formative years.

MatO - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#287763) #

One thing I learned last night is that every player drafted will be an impact player in the major leagues.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#287764) #

Max (Feast Mode) Pentecost was born in Athens, Georgia. Two thumbs up already...He was a 7th round pick out of high school. He had a great year for Kennesaw this year (positive W/K; increased power), but in a weak conference. His performance in the Cape Cod League last summer is what put him on the map. It's a league with serious competition. Pentecost won the MVP by doing everything you can do as a hitter (leading the league in OPS) while catching.

To get a rough statistical idea about comparables, I ran a Play Index for catchers who between 23 and 25 put an OBP between .310 and .350 and a slugging percentage between .380 and .450. It includes names like Matt Wieters who I threw out immediately because of the difference in power. The names included players like John Roseboro, Manny Sanguillen, Tony Pena, Don Slaught, Dave Nilsson, Brad Ausmus, Terry Steinbach, Kurt Suzuki and Salvador Perez. Probably the best player would be Ernie Lombardi. Pentecost is likely not as good a hitter as Lombardi, but is a much more rounded athlete. Anyways, as far as I am concerned, I am pretty sure that he'll be a solid major league contributor and maybe more than that, if he is healthy. And that is always a huge question for a catcher.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#287765) #

One thing I learned last night is that every player drafted will be an impact player in the major leagues

I learned from Notgraphs that there is a prospect named Handsome Monica. Obviously an impact player with great makeup...

hypobole - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#287766) #

This draft is by accounts I've read, heavy on pitching, very light on hitting. If the Jays don't draft another position player, it wouldn't bother me a bit.

As far as sliders/curves, neither are good for young arms has been conventional wisdom.

But it now appears the biggest problems are throwing a lot (which usually means throwing when tired) and throwing as hard as possible. Unfortunately both these dangerous habits are what players have to do to end up getting drafted as high as possible.

soupman - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#287767) #

Mike, thanks for allaying some of my anxieties on Pentecost. A cost-controlled everyday catcher would be a huge win for the team in the next few years as the roster becomes more expensive to maintain.

Assuming Pentecost and Hoffman are quick signs, where do people see them getting assigned to start?

hypobole - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#287768) #

Mike, you're take on Pentecost may be close to glowing, but by all accounts, he's no J.P. Arencibia :)

Chuck - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#287769) #

One thing I learned last night is that every player drafted will be an impact player in the major leagues.

A whole cottage industry has grown out of all the major sports drafts with no shortage of talking head experts. It would be refreshing if a Keith Law, for instance, answered questions about the future of the picks by shrugging his shoulders and saying "I dunno". Because it really would be far more accurate than the overly confident assessments he actually gives.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#287772) #

I anticipate that Pentecost will be in Vancouver this summer. Hoffman will have TJ next week. Presumably the Blue Jays will be offering him the best rehab program that they can. It is in the interest of both parties to come to a quick deal due to the timing of the surgery and the desirability of early rehab supervision.

Richard S.S. - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#287773) #

Hoffman's out for roughly 15 months, so Instructional in September 2015 and maybe AFL in 2015. But in 12 months from now he'll be getting his throwing in, maybe in games.

Pentecost should start in Vancouver. Where he goes from there is up to him.

People (including Jay's staff) forget that as good as someone is, they still have to be taught. The problems lies in the assumptions made about what a prospect should know. That's where the Jays start falling down in developing them.

PeterG - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#287774) #

Hoffman had his TJ two weeks ago. Vancouver is a possible destination for Pentacost but so might be Lansing. Minor league catching promotions are overdue, especially for Derrick Chung., If he goes to NH, one of the Lansing catchers would go to Dunedin, thus opening a spot in Lansing. I think it's close to 50/50 he starts at Lansing or Vancouver but it should be one or the other.....perhaps Dunedin a 10% chance, possibly as a reward for signing early should that happen.

Spifficus - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#287775) #

Hoffman had his surgery Mid May, so he's almost a month in already.

hypobole - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#287776) #

I dunno, Chuck, but if that was all he (and other talking head experts) answered, I would make the overly confident assessment that no one would pay for BA or ESPN Insider subscriptions.

Of course they're wrong, a lot, but so is every teams management. At least with Law, you get to hear the positives and negatives. Gerry has some fantastic interviews with the Jays minor league folks, but any criticism they have of any player discussed is almost always, and for good reason, extremely nuanced and muted.

I remember Law getting a lot of negativity for his less than glowing assessment of JPA, - not a good catcher, poor plate discipline etc, though pitchers make enough mistakes he'll hit 20 HR's. People wouldn't accept our PCL MVP was not going to be a star. Maybe if JPA had better msakeup, he would have proved Law wrong, but sadly Law kind of knew what he was talking about.

soupman - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#287777) #

I was surprised when I heard the 15 month number thrown out re: Hoffman. Isn't the average recovery time for TJ around 11 mos. now? Why the extra time for Hoffman, shouldn't a younger arm heal even faster?

hypobole - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#287778) #

"People (including Jay's staff) forget that as good as someone is, they still have to be taught. The problems lies in the assumptions made about what a prospect should know. That's where the Jays start falling down in developing them"

Richard, thank goodness you're here to remind them.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#287779) #

Hoffman had his surgery Mid May, so he's almost a month in already.

Thanks for the correction, spifficus. All the more reason to get a deal done quickly.

Chuck - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#287780) #

Of course they're wrong, a lot, but so is every teams management.

I guess my issue is with the entire world of punditry. In Nate Silver's book, he measured the forecasts made by "experts" on the Sunday morning political shows and found that they were all basically living and breathing coin flips.

It's one thing to discuss what a player's skills and weaknesses are, who they are similar to, what the organization is hoping for with respect to time lines, etc. That's interesting to the fan base. But I'd love to see a lot less humility when it comes to the ensuing forecasts. I recognize that this makes for less interesting (and less lucrative) theater, but at least it wouldn't seem so distasteful.

And if there were scorecards you could examine, that would help. Maybe Law has a 75% success rate and thus has an opinion worth listening to. Maybe he is better at gauging this stuff than his peers. Or maybe he's blathering random hooey (I'm not saying that I know that he is). A scorecard could provide some insight.

JB21 - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#287782) #

uglyone - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#287783) #

Don't know much about these guys but I love that Hoffman pick.

Any time a guy falls for reasons other than performance/talent, it's a good gamble. Especially when its a pitcher falling due to TJ surgery, a very recoverable injury, when every pitcher drafted is a huge injury risk anyways

That Foley guy sounds like a good pick too if we knew what it takes to sign him.

hypobole - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#287784) #

Chuck, Nate Silver pulled off some pretty damn accurate forecasting prior to the last presidential election. It can be done (though it helps if you actually know what you're doing).

uglyone - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#287785) #

"Maybe Law has a 75% success rate "

don't worry - he does not. There is nothing special about Law's opinion.

The one good thing I can say about Law is that he does do his homework, which is more than a lot of the "experts" do. Both in talking to real scouts and in researching the performance numbers.

But the fact that he has successfully pointed out holes in prospects that have subsequently failed, like JPA, doesn't mean much. Most prospects fail - predicting failure isn't hard. You tell homer fans that every one of their top-10 prospects suck and will fail, and you'll be right 80-90% of the time. That's not hard to do.

Predicting successes, though, is hard.

Chuck - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#287787) #

Chuck, Nate Silver pulled off some pretty damn accurate forecasting prior to the last presidential election

Oh, I am very aware of his accomplishments. He proved that what he did was certainly doable with the appropriate methodology. And I relished the crow eaten by the right after he had been mercilessly bashed in the lead-up to the election.

I don't know that forecasting the fates of teenage baseball players is quite so doable, however. I suppose there is a component of "science" (loosely defined) at the core, but the error bars are huge and I'd like to say a paid pundit actually admit this once in awhile.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#287789) #

Predicting a presidential election using a large number of almost contemporaneous state and national polls is easier, by a number of orders of magnitude, than predicting which prospect will succeed 2-10 years after being drafted. Needless to say, verifying draft acumen is hellish.

You basically need a game to even things out. Immediately after the draft, you get to pick two players from the first 10 picks made by the clubs, two players from the 2nd 10 picks, two players from the 3rd 10 picks, one player from the remainder of the first round and supplementaries, one player from the second and third rounds, one player from the fourth and fifth rounds and one other player. The winner of the game is the one who amasses the highest total major league WAR from the picks over the ensuing 10 years. If you did this over a 5 year period with a number of commentators and one did very well, you might have an idea that the person actually knew something, or maybe just got lucky with an Albert Pujols type...

greenfrog - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#287795) #

The one good thing I can say about Law is that he does do his homework, which is more than a lot of the "experts" do. Both in talking to real scouts and in researching the performance numbers.

Law has some other advantages over other media commentators as well. First, he has worked for a ML front office (I believe he also interviewed for a position with the Astros under Luhnow). Second, he regularly attends games in order to scout players. Third, he appears to be reasonably well connected with various knowledgeable baseball people. Fourth, notwithstanding Twain's observations about soap and education, Law is educated (undergrad degree from Harvard and MBA from Carnegie Mellon).

Sure, he's a talking head, and I don't take his opinions as gospel, but I'm usually interested in what he has to say. He certainly has more credentials than any of us do.

China fan - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#287799) #

"....I was surprised when I heard the 15 month number thrown out re: Hoffman...."

It wasn't just Richard who mentioned this. It was mentioned by one of the panelists on the MLB.com live broadcast too. This same broadcast panelist said Hoffman wouldn't be pitching until he was 23 years old! That would be 2016, which seems totally wrong. No idea where he got this stuff from, but it's readily contradicted by everything we know about TJ surgeries.

soupman - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#287801) #

I knew I'd heard it elsewhere, CF. It sounded outlandish, but i haven't paid that close attention to the leadup, so i wondered if there had been a complication of some sort...turns out it's just further evidence that mlb should probably rejig the panel it has at the draft.

uglyone - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#287802) #

yeah given normal recover times he should be throwing next april at the latest. Should get most of a season in next year, even if they play it conservative.

China fan - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#287810) #

So we could see Hoffman in Dunedin or even New Hampshire at some point in 2016 if all goes well. Then potentially the majors by 2017.

Beyonder - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#287811) #

"Nope. Picks get two years of protection in the new CBA. I'm can't remember if that's just for first rounders or any protected pick, but I presume the latter. So there's still one year of protection left on the Bickford Pick."

Spifficus. Your answer strikes me as correct (though it is not in the CBA), but then I read this:

"The Jays held the 11th overall draft pick as compensation for their failure to sign 2013 first-round pick Phillip Bickford. Should the team fail to sign Pentecost they will not receive a compensatory pick in 2015."

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=454092

bpoz - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#287814) #

The TJ recovery timeline certainly can be confusing. Some TJ dates that I think are reasonably accurate, Drew Hutchison July 2012, R Osuna June 2013, T Robson May 2014 & J Hoffman May 2014.
It seems to me that Hutch did not do much pitching the next year 2013. IMO to shut him down early and also not burn an option. I totally agreed with this as it seemed to mirror the way Marcum's TJ recovery went. Frankly there was talk of Marcum being available for Sept and possibly part of August and his rehab time was completed. But he got shut down.
Litsch's TJ recovery seemed faster but not as successful. Options do not matter with Osuna, Robson and Hoffman so they most likely will pitch more instead of being shut down. As well May & June surgeries allow for more recovery pitching as there is more baseball season left. I do not know which is better more or less recovery pitching.
IMO 2 off seasons is valuable, 1 post operation & the 2nd post recovery pitching. I have no opinion on the age of the pitcher as a factor.

uglyone - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#287818) #

Hutch surgery was on August 9, 2012. His first rehab start was on July 9, 2013 with Dunedin. Exactly 11 months later. He pitched on regular starter's rest the rest of the season making 10 starts in total, and then went to fall league to continue rehab starts, ending up with about 60ip last year in total, then came to camp and won a rotation spot this year.

Osuna had surgery at the beginning of August last year, so should be looking at rehab starts in a month or so.

So unless something goes wrong, Hoffman should be on track to be throwing in minor league games sometime in April next year.

Richard S.S. - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#287820) #

Hoffman's 12-month limit is mid-to-late May 2015. It's extremely unlikey he gets throw into Full Season Ball. So mid-June as the earliest (13 months), seldom much good for another month or two (14-15 months). It's simple math using easy logic, work it out for yourself.

uglyone - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#287821) #

its bad math based on bad logic.

Spifficus - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#287823) #

Spifficus. Your answer strikes me as correct (though it is not in the CBA), but then I read this...

After searching around, I'm now pretty convinced it was either a rumor I took as fact or an implanted memory from a capricious deity.

Richard S.S. - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#287828) #

If a Pitcher comes back and starts pitching poorly in games after 11-12 months it's considered a success? Wow, how little satisfies some people. Hutchison pitched poorly in Minor games. In the AFL he started to be good again. Now he's possibly a future All-Star.

I don't consider anything less than a 100% recovery (in ability) to be a successful recovery. Hutchison wasn't a success until then (AFL).

China fan - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#287832) #

A year ago, Hutchison hadn't even pitched in a single rehab game. Today he has the 2nd-best ERA in the Jays rotation, and he has already out-dueled Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez this year. That's a stunning success by any standard. And at every step along the way last season, the coaches were impressed by his progress. Does anyone really think that Hutchison's recovery should be judged by the ERA that he posted in his 19 innings in Buffalo last August?

bpoz - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#287837) #

So 11 months before the 1st rehab start. That activates the 30 day rehab window. Then any further minor league pitching counts against your 20 day limit before an option is burned. Before the official 1st rehab start you can "work out" with the trainers for an indefinite time. As minor league prospects Osuna, Robson & Hoffman will be doing this in Extended ST most likely. Osuna is using Extended.
I also think both Marcum & Hutch are strong in the area of control pitching. I heard, but I do not know how accurate this is that velocity recovers faster than control. So it is possible the control strong pitcher would get his success back faster once he recovers his old control skill.

Mike Green - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#287838) #

So we could see Hoffman in Dunedin or even New Hampshire at some point in 2016 if all goes well. Then potentially the majors by 2017.

I sure hope that they don't even try to get Hoffman to the majors (as a starter) by 2017. Maybe he pitches in extended when he is ready in 2015 and then (if all goes well) Vancouver in the summer of 2015. Allowing for the fact that he'll be out of baseball at a key developmental time, expecting him to jump back on an express timetable like Hutchison isn't realistic at all. Hutchison knew how to pitch prior to the surgery. Hoffman has some learning to do.

If all goes well, Hoffman is in the majors as a starter in 2018. That's a big if. He could get there quicker if he ends up as a relief ace.

slitheringslider - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#287862) #

Max Pentecost sounds a bit like Travis D'Arnaud to me, solid all across the board. Good comp?

Beyonder - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#287869) #

I actually think you are correct, and the article is wrong Spifficus, because I have the same recollection. I'll investigate.

Beyonder - Friday, June 06 2014 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#287870) #

Here it is. You are right.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612723.html

TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, June 07 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#287907) #

Predicting a presidential election using a large number of almost contemporaneous state and national polls is easier, by a number of orders of magnitude, than predicting which prospect will succeed 2-10 years after being drafted.

Good God, yes. Silver relied on state polls on the eve of the election to make his forecast. Ask him to predict right now the state-by-state results of the 2020 presidential election and you might get something that more resembles the MLB draft. (Hell, he couldn't even predict the 2010 British election accurately even after the polls had closed and knew the national results for each party (taking issue, as he did, with a BBC election night forecast that turned out to be right).)

You basically need a game to even things out.... If you did this over a 5 year period with a number of commentators and one did very well, you might have an idea that the person actually knew something

And then you lose me here. There's no way that would tell you anything. Play the game a thousand times and maybe. Maybe. You might be able to identify a few scouts that were slightly better than average. Scouting (predicting the future, really) is just really hard.

Lylemcr - Saturday, June 07 2014 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#287928) #

Hoffman and Reid-foley are high risk/high reward picks. I like it.

Does anyone know how the Jays have fared developing High Schoolers vs College players? I think they are bad a developing players and I wonder if they would be better to stick to College players who are somewhat developed already.

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