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Winning is better than losing.


Matchups:

Dickey (5-4, 3.95) vs Shields (6-3, 2.95)
Happ (4-1, 3.34) vs Vargas (4-2, 3.55)
Hutchison (4-3, 3.88) vs Undetermined
Buehrle (9-1, 2.33) vs Guthrie (2-4, 4.14)

Longtime Royals watchers Rob Neyers and Rany Jazayerli are still lamenting the Royals curious decision to cut loose hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, something Jazayerli wasn't very keen on, as he wrote last August:

where I think [Yost] has cost the Royals the most is if, as rumored, he is the reason why Kevin Seitzer was let go. This season is a bright, shining exhibit of how the disappointing offense of 2012 wasn’t Seitzer’s fault:

He then goes to a link a study at Prospectus that

 came to the conclusion that Seitzer was, if not the best hitting coach of the last 20 years, certainly close. And that was before this season, when practically every hitter he coached last season has declined to varying degrees. I imagine the same study performed today would rank Seitzer even higher.

OK, then.
Jays vs Royals | 158 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#287223) #
Bullpen should be up now.
Hodgie - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#287224) #
This could be just me, but it sure seems like Dickey has been especially guilty of not being able to provide shutdown innings after his offense scores this season.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#287225) #
I don't know why Gose wasn't staying closer to the bag at first, especially since Shields has a terrific move and had just made a number of good throws that almost nailed him. Gose has been great this year in a SSS, but that was some obtuse baserunning. And why didn't the 1B coach say something to Gose before the inevitable pickoff?
Kasi - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#287226) #
Why was Dickey brought out again for that inning? Is Gibbons trying to lose the game?
Kasi - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#287227) #
EE apparently doesn't want to lose this game.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#287228) #
Does Casey close?
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#287229) #
Well apparently not.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#287230) #
Reyes has to put it behind him. The Jays are still in position to win this.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#287231) #
Wade Davis looks pretty much unhittable.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#287232) #
And Dickey can't pitch.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#287233) #
You need a baserunner and you remove the guy with a .429 OBP for a guy with a .309 OBP?
Four Seamer - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#287234) #
Well, on the bright side I probably don't have to worry about Reyes filling up my Twitter feed by endlessly retweeting his sycophantic admirers tonight.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#287235) #
Either a called strike 3 on Gordon that was called a ball or Reyes being able to throw the baseball normally and we'd be talking about a 10 game winning streak right now. Horrible way to lose, but it was going to end at some point.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#287236) #
What makes this loss painful is that the Jays didn't get beat -- they let an easy win slip away.

Two baserunners picked off unnecessarily, Reyes's bobble earlier in the game (which didn't prove costly), and Reyes's play in the ninth (which did).

The great thing about baseball is that you get to turn the page right away, usually the next day.
Lylemcr - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#287237) #
These guys stink.  I can't believe they lost.  Dismantle them :)
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#287238) #
Any time a Starter gives up more than 3 Runs, it makes it harder for the defense to function - they can not make mistakes - and that's what happens. Offense shouldn't be needed to score more than 6 runs. Any time Relievers give up more than a run, it will be costly. You may still win, but that Reliever isn't trusted as much next time (even by himself).

How long this lasts is unknown. But if it's not over tomorrow, it could cause a slide.
grjas - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#287242) #
Buehrle on Wednesday: "I think the biggest key for us is, for a good team, when you lose a couple of games, and then struggle, how you bounce back and respond your next couple of games."
Mike Green - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#287243) #
On a lighter note: Super Pillar. Go for the majestic movie version.

The game did have a positive at the end- Gose's battling at-bat against Greg Holland with two outs and nobody on and down 2.  That is a good omen.




Jevant - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#287247) #
SSS and all that, but Gose looks completely different at the plate this year.  Not offering at nearly as much junk as previously, and his swing seems shorter.  Seems to be learning to be a hitter rather than just a swinger.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#287255) #
Is J.A. Happ good enough to be a 4th Starter or is he just a 5th Starter? Because either way, he's facing someone just like himself tonight in the battle of 4/5 Starters. Bullpen issues will make this a more difficult game to win. Don't ask what Bullpen issues, the games were there to be watched.
Mike Green - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#287257) #
Blue Jay hitters have hit Vargas pretty well as a group -.319/.398/.574 in 108 PAs. The only ones who have struggled are LHHs who will likely be out of the lineup anyways.

I wonder if there might be a roster move this afternoon to bring in a fresh arm...


uglyone - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#287260) #
Argh. Sole possession of first place in the AL was one bounced throw away. That hurts. Even more painful because i was expecting a potential loss thanks to Shields...but we pounded him....and still lost. Even in my less than sober state that one was tough.

And we missed out on having the bautista putout be the story of the day, too.

Ah well, back on the horse. New streak starts tonight.
Jonny German - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#287263) #
The fresh arm has been called and it is that of 34-year-old Bobby Korecky. He's been dominant in 31 innings over 22 appearances in Buffalo this year, with a 0.29 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2.3BB/9, 9.3 K/9.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#287266) #
In the First Third of the Season, the Team is 32-22.
In the Second Third of the Season, the Team is 0-1, so far.

It's easier to count in thirds (54 games) as it gives you a bigger, but equal, small samples sizes.
BalzacChieftain - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#287268) #
Hard not get emotional about that loss. The feeling of absolute elation at Bautista's putout to the feeling of sorrow just a few moments later with the error. What a rollercoaster!
Mike Green - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#287270) #
The fresh arm has been called and it is that of 34-year-old Bobby Korecky. He's been dominant in 31 innings over 22 appearances in Buffalo this year, with a 0.29 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2.3BB/9, 9.3 K/9.

...
with Rasmussen being sent down.  I am pleased that the club is continuing with a 7 man pen.    On May 12, Casey Janssen returned to the club.  Since then, they are 14-3. 
grjas - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#287272) #
It's interesting to see how much of the Jays hitting prowess has come from players who other teams- for all intents and purposes- gave up on and/or whose careers were turned around here. Encanarcion, Bautista, Francisco, Rasmus, Tolleson, Cabrera, ... Some luck but some strategy as well in picking players with potential and helping them click

Also interesting to see how this approach hasn't worked for the SP's- Jeffress, Rogers, Wang, Ortiz, Laffey etc.
Chuck - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#287273) #
It's interesting to see how much of the Jays hitting prowess has come from players who other teams- for all intents and purposes- gave up on

It's worth remembering that Encarnacion was waived by Toronto in 2010, picked up by Oakland, dropped, and then picked back up by Toronto. The team's decision to bring him back was obviously a good one.

China fan - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#287274) #
...and possibly the decision to let him play 1B instead of 3B to minimize the defensive distractions that seemed to be demoralizing him too....
uglyone - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#287275) #
Stroman not starting as scheduled today. Manager says its not physical.

My blind guess is they're lining him up to take hendriks' spot. Maybe just hold off and let him start for the jays on tuesday, or give him one more AAA start on monday (Jays offday) and line him up to start for the jays next saturday.


Just a wild guess though.
China fan - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#287276) #
As I noted in an earlier thread, Stroman has actually been rather mediocre (or even poor) in 5 of his past 7 appearances in Buffalo and Toronto this month.  An extra day of rest, maybe an extra bullpen or a coaching session to work on a mechanical tweak or even to clear his head a little, might be helpful in bringing him back to his early-season form.
JB21 - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#287277) #
The EE situation isn't as simple as that sounds. I believe he was non-tendered because he was going to be too expensive in arbitration as he was making pretty good money at the time. The Jays wanted to non-tender him and offer him a contract at less money, which, eventually they were able to do.
grjas - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#287278) #
It's worth remembering that Encarnacion was waived by Toronto in 2010, picked up by Oakland, dropped, and then picked back up by Toronto.

Yeah i know EE's situation was different which is why i said "and/or" in the post. What I think is interesting though, is whyhave the Jays had such good success turning around the careers of a number of hitters, but very little success with pitchers? Is it a coincidence? Perhaps.

I would argue in the last few years that their hitting coaches have been more effective than their pitching coaches. I can't think of many situations where the pitching coaches appear to have had a substantive impact on members of the staff. Compare that to this year alone, where the impact Seitzer has had on a number of hitters, to date, has been very noticeable.
Gerry - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#287279) #
The Stroman situation smells like an injury to a pitcher. This sometimes happens when a pitcher is injured and he is gone for tests. The Jays don't know if a DL stint is required so they keep Stroman on ice until they know if he is needed.
JB21 - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#287280) #
On twitter they're saying he was scratched in case he is needed tomorrow in the bigs. No injury.
uglyone - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#287282) #
tommorrow?

does that mean Hutch is injured? his velo has been down lately.
Gerry - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#287284) #
I saw AA say they are worried about the bullpen and if they have to cover a lot of innings today they might need help.
scottt - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#287285) #
Janssen is supposedly day to day with "body soreness" or something.

Would be weird to send Stroman back to the pen, though.

Richard S.S. - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#287286) #
When you can't bring in a lead-off triple, you'd better think you are in for a loss.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#287287) #
And the slide begins.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#287288) #
This
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2014/5/30/5766134/marcus-stroman-likely-to-start-for-blue-jays-saturday
is really interesting, eight-man Bullpen?
Chuck - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#287289) #
Dear Mr. Infante,

Please don't bother contacting us.

Sincerely,
MENSA
Mike Green - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#287290) #
Beautiful Gose at-bat.
JB21 - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#287292) #
Stroman to start tomorrow. Buerhle Sunday. Hutch Monday.
Gerry - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#287293) #
I wonder if this was done so that they could give Hutchison a few more days rest.
uglyone - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#287294) #
frustrating game.

no "cluster luck" with the offense, while we almost get away with but not quite get away with trying to stretch Happ to save our bullpen. Can't be too angry in a game where we get that many baserunners, though, and where Happ comes just that close to an 8ip/4r performance.

Stroman goes tommorrow, Hutch pushed back to Tuesday. I hope this is just smartly giving Hutch a break, and not some real worry about his health.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#287296) #
Delabar`s lost 5MPH on his stuff and is having control issues. Hutchison`s velocity is down 4-5 MPH at his last start. Janssen`s "sore" again. Korecky pitches 1.1 scoreless innings and is D.F.A.'d for Stroman. That makes zero sense if they don`t retain Korecky. Surely something else could be done.
uglyone - Friday, May 30 2014 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#287298) #
Delabar FB Velocity

2011 93.9
2012 93.8
2013 94.1
2014 93.0

Hutchison FB Velocity Per Start 2014

1. 91.4
2. 92.8
3. 91.5
4. 90.7
5. 93.0
6. 91.7
7. 92.9
8. 93.0
9. 92.1
10. 91.4
11. 90.9

AVG 92.0
Beyonder - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#287300) #
No "cluster luck" with the offence,

No clutchness either.
rfan8 - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#287301) #
Is Cecil ok? Loup has pitched in spots where I thought Cecil may come in recently. And Cecil has only pitched once in the past week or so, recording one out.

Regardless we are still in first :)
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#287302) #
Didn't Delabar regularly throw in the upper 90's in the first half of 1992? I can remember hearing Spring Training Games (late) this year where they talked about reduced velocity for him.

While I'll agree that published numbers are accurate, I still think he has reduced velocity. I don't think 93 is that good, it's just survivable. Anything less needs movement as well.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#287304) #
Starting Stroman against KC makes sense in that they've been one of the weaker offensive teams in the AL this year (they're last in the league in HR). Hopefully this translates into a confidence-building start for Stroman and a win for the Jays.
Mike Green - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#287307) #
It looks to me like management is just trying to give the pitchers a little rest.  Stroman goes today, Buehrle on Sunday and Hutchison on Tuesday.  Next up in the rotation normally would be Hendriks- we'll see if he gets the start; my guess is that it depends on how Stroman looks today.  Either way, both Hutchison and Dickey get extra rest and they probably needed it.  I like the plan.

Gibbons does need to refine the role of the longman Redmond (and possibly Hendriks later on).  He seems to be saving him for Happ's starts, with the strange result that Redmond has been short of (low-leverage) work, because Happ has been pitching better than some of the other starters. It's not a true tandem- really a "just in case tandem" and it doesn't work well. 


Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#287309) #
Jays face 24 year-old RHP Aaron Brooks today. http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=605156#gameType='R'&sectionType=career&statType=2&season=2014&level='ALL'
He basically just a guy, nothing too special.
Mike Green - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#287310) #
The bullpen should also be in much better shape, with effectively a day off yesterday and a day off coming on Monday. 
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#287311) #
I don't understand the logic behind the Jays' moves. They seem more "knee-jerk" than actually thought out.
Bobby Korecky pitched 1.1 scoreless innings and is DFA'd almost immediately after the game. With Relief pitching issues being what the are, that makes no sense.
Casey Janssen has "body soreness" issues, being whatever that means. I can almost understand Brett Cecil's not pitching if he's Janssen's backup, but not otherwise. Does Janssen need DL time?
Todd Redmond pitches very well if he's used relatively often. If he sits too long, he's less effective. I think he gets forgotten from time-to-time as he's not seen as more.

So unless they're using Hendriks in the Bullpen the next day or two, they're working with a 6-man Bullpen.
92-93 - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#287312) #
I had suggested in the other thread Hutchison should be skipped when Parker asked if Hendriks should stay in the rotation, but I don't like what the Jays are doing here. If he needs the rest, I don't see what 2 extra days gives him. Skip him or send him to the DL to miss 3 starts and get 2 weeks off, because two extra days isn't going to help a kid fresh off TJ get through an entire season; It'll help him feel better on Tuesday.

Kudos on the Korecky move though. They needed some bullpen help so they correctly identified the bottom of the roster spot and shuffled through it, as I wish they'd do way more often instead of carrying 8 relievers to shore up the relief.
grjas - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#287313) #
Todd Redmond pitches very well if he's used relatively often. If he sits too long, he's less effective. I think he gets forgotten from time-to-time as he's not seen as more.

I agree. I don't understand the logic in how and when he is used. Long delays between outings and often used in short rather than long relief. Seems odd
Mike Green - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#287314) #
I wouldn't be opposed if the club skipped Hutchison's turn in the rotation. Hopefully, they watch carefully how he throws on the side on his throw day and adjust accordingly.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#287315) #
Redmond's job is to:

(a) come in when the starter gets knocked out early;
(b) mop up in blowouts; and
(c) pitch when there's no one left

There really haven't been a lot of these situations, especially lately. (He did come in the other night in extra innings due to (c).) So I don't find anything strange about his usage. He's the 7th man in the bullpen and gets used accordingly.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#287316) #
This guy isn't throwing strikes and Lind is swinging?
Chuck - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#287317) #
Redmond's job is to: (a) come in when the starter gets knocked out early; (b) mop up in blowouts; and (c) pitch when there's no one left

And (d) pitch the final 3 innings of Stroman's first career start to protect a 10-1 lead.

Mike Green - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#287318) #
TUIB, the definition of being knocked out "early" is flexible.  Obviously, it's not the 7th inning.  There have been times when Redmond could have easily been used in the 5th or 6th innings (due to the game situation and his relative lack of work) when he has not been.  It has resulted in somewhat more work than optimal for Loup, Delabar and Cecil. 
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#287319) #
Navarro is just awful at framing pitches. He's fine when the pitch comes to where he's set up (any MLB catcher should be), but otherwise he stabs at the ball in a way that makes close pitches look like clear balls. He's particularly bad at pitches on the bottom edge of the strike zone, as he stabs the ball down to the ground, but the same thing happens if he has to reach left or right a bit on pitches at his chest level, as his momentum takes him way out of the zone.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#287320) #
That's true, Mike. And you could probably say the same about mop-up work. I don't know about Redmond specifically, but there have been times when Gibbons could have used someone instead of Cecil et al in the 8th or 9th innings of games that were pretty much out of reach (for one team or the other).
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#287321) #
I should add, though, that I don't recall there being many of those situations (of either kind) lately.
katman - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#287322) #
Richard,

* I don't understand Korecky either. The season is making it clear that the Jays will need bullpen depth, and pieces like Stilson and Wagner are looking iffy. Others, like Rogers, flamed out. BK may be down on the depth chart, but he's useful, and pieces above him are failing. To throw a piece like that away for 1.1 meaningless innings does seem poorly thought out. This isn't the same as Jeffress.

* Don't know what's up with Cecil, but I presume the Jays do. They used him a lot earlier, so if they backed off suddenly, there's a reason.

* They need Redmond as a long guy, because the other options (Rogers, Jenkins) are less appealing. But that, plus his #7 status, makes it hard to use him a lot. Agree it's an issue, but don't see a ready solution.
James W - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#287323) #
Was Korecky out of options? Otherwise, I have no idea why they would need to designate him -- Stroman was already on the 40-man. Anyone know?
ayjackson - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#287324) #
Thought I heard that Korecky cleared waivers and accepted an optional assignment.
uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#287325) #
love this response to the mini-losing streak. great show of character....though tough to watch that poor kid have to go through that.

and stroman is pretty freaking good too.
uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#287326) #
"I don't understand the logic behind the Jays' moves. They seem more "knee-jerk" than actually thought out.
Bobby Korecky pitched 1.1 scoreless innings and is DFA'd almost immediately after the game"

like 92-93 has yelled about for years, this is actually exactly what the jays should be doing more of. cycling in guys who don't need to clear waivers whenever they need to give the 'pen a rest.

korecky, wagner, rasmussen, stilson....all guys capable of giving us some spot relief.
scottt - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#287327) #
Korecky is 34. He must have ran out of options 10 years ago.
uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#287328) #
and Stroman almost pulls off one of the more ridiculous defensive plays you'll ever see from a pitcher.
uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#287329) #
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/A116406FBA1084588320006279168_1d48af8f71a.3.2.mp4?versionId=3Ky__maiCRdK3.H2t5f6lZjbXIfYDpog
uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#287330) #
Pretty sweet 1st career start for Marcus: 6.0ip, 5h, 1xbh, 1r, 0bb, 6k, 94pc/63st, 8go/1fo

and more importantly looked great doing it. threw hard, threw nasty, and gave up next to no solid contact. all sorts of ugly awkward swings and weak grounders.

impressive stuff.

having two nasty 23 year olds in the rotation would be pretty exciting.
bpoz - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#287334) #
Stroman threw 94 pitches. He was still throwing hard near the end. This is very promising.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#287335) #
latest BA mock is out today....Has Jays taking Turner and Hoffman in first round. Could we see a more even distribution of HS and College players among the Jays selections this year? I think so..

If by that you mean returning to the Ricciardi years of the rote blowing of high picks on second-tier college seniors, I think you're wrong. Jeff Hoffman is typical high risk/high reward. Not just the TJ but a more worrying shoulder problem. Otherwise he's perhaps top 5. I don't think it matters in the least that he's not a prep pick.

The Mets are drafting right behind the Jays. I suspect the Jays suspect they'd take Turner if he's there. The Jays would, I suspect, like to get all 3 of Turner, Toussaint and Hoffman with their 2 picks. My own view is that if all the boards are correct on likely selections, Toussaint and Hoffman offer the highest impact potential. I know others like Mike see pitchers as best avoided in the first, but I don't know if the bats are there this year.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#287336) #
Adam Lind: 107 PA, 351/430/574

There was a nice write-up on Lind a few days ago in the Sun. He comes across as a very nice guy, good teammate. From towards the end:

"I know Eddie’s the first baseman. He’s the workhorse in our lineup and my job is to let him get off his feet and rest so he can be out there in as many games in possible,” said Lind, a native Muncie, Ind. “If I want to be in the lineup, I’ve got to DH. I’d rather be in the lineup contributing (on the field). But I think ultimately we’d rather have Eddy in the lineup than me. That’s pretty obvious.”

Again, Lind sits back and laughs. The only part of being a DH that bothers the ninth-year Jay is the fact that, if he doesn’t have a great day at the plate, he can’t do anything defensively to help the club. But as Gibbons said, if anyone has the right demeanour to be a role/platoon player, a player with considerable talent but not a huge ego, it’s Lind.

“I know some people don’t like (to platoon),” said Lind. “Maybe I’ve just accepted that if I want to be in the big leagues, and I want to play, that’s what I’m going to have to do.”

As for being an everyday first baseman on another team, Lind smiled.

“Yeah,” he said. “But I’d rather be here.”


http://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/28/blue-jays-adam-lind-checks-his-ego-for-sake-of-team
China fan - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#287339) #
"....Don't know what's up with Cecil, but I presume the Jays do...."

Apparently it's another fluke injury, but luckily it was only for a couple of days.  Here's the explanation from MLB.com:

The big left-hander hasn't pitched since Tuesday because he was experiencing shoulder soreness after sleeping awkwardly on his left arm.

"Just slept on it a little awkward a couple of nights ago, and it was soreness I've never had," he said. "It was night and day one day to the next, so they tried to stay away from me the last two days to let everything get back to normal. But it feels great today."


scottt - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#287341) #
First place by 3 games. 5 games ahead of Baltimore.

It's too bad Encarnation didn't tie Barry Bonds record for May.

China fan - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#287342) #
"....To throw a piece like that away for 1.1 meaningless innings does seem poorly thought out...."

I don't think the Jays have necessarily thrown Korecky away.  I'm not entirely sure about the rules, but I read somewhere on Twitter that there's a way to keep him.  He may be exposed to waivers, but he won't necessarily be claimed.  He's basically been a minor-league free agent, on and off, since 2009.  So anyone could have signed him in the off-season in any of the last five years.  Other teams won't necessarily want to spend the cost of a waiver claim to get him.

On a related question: it appears that Hendriks has an option year remaining.  He pitched in the majors in 2011, but it was only in September, presumably as an expanded-roster call-up.   So 2014 seems to be his 3rd option year, so he can be sent down to Buffalo without risk of losing him if the Jays decide to do that.

And on another related question:  Neil Wagner pitched a scoreless 9th inning for Buffalo tonight.  So he's ready to be called up if the Jays need help in the bullpen.
China fan - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#287344) #
Okay, I've just found the complicated explanation of why Korecky will stay under Jays control and hasn't been "thrown away" as some people suggested.  The Jays must have known this technicality of the rules, so they knew that they wouldn't lose him if they called him up for one game.  The explanation is from the BlueBird Banter blog.  Basically, it's an arcane rule called "optional waivers" and it means that Korecky is theoretically exposed to waivers but -- because of a "gentleman's rule" in MLB tradition -- he is virtually certain to be unclaimed and to be subsequently assigned to Buffalo.  Here's an excerpt from the explanation, courtesy of BBB:

Even though Korecky had an option remaining, he has to go through waivers because he had made his major league debut more than three calendar years ago.   When a player is placed on optional waivers, any team can theoretically make a claim. If a claim is made, the player can be pulled back off waivers, but then he would not be allowed to be sent to the minors. Because no team would want to be blocked from sending players to the minors like that, there is a "gentlemen's agreement" between all the general managers in the league to not claim players on optional waivers. In fact, there is no known instance of anyone being claimed that way. Remember when the Red Sox signed Stephen Drew last week and assigned him to the minors? Drew needed to go through optional waivers, so theoretically a general manager who wanted to screw the Red Sox could've claimed Drew and forced him to get ready for the season in the major leagues.   The reason why Korecky was designated for assignment is that it takes time for waivers to go through the system (at least 48 hours). Players cannot be placed optional waivers until they have been added onto the 40-man roster. Since Korecky's contract was selected on Friday morning, that was the earliest time the Jays could've placed him on waivers. But they needed a roster spot by Friday evening, so Korecky was placed on the designated list to buy some time.

PeterG - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#287345) #
Don't know how you get that from what I said......nothing about returning to Ricciardi philosophy.  As Jays have selected a very high percentage of HS players in early rounds the past 3 years, a more conservative approach would suggest maybe a 5/6 breakdown in the first 10 rounds.......AA has already said that the approach will be a little more conservative but didn't say what that means....maybe just avoiding players in football, jail or both. The consensus does seem to be Turner at 9. It was rumoured Jays already had an agreement with Toussaint at 11 but may be rethinking it in light of Hoffman's unexpected availability. Personally, I would prefer Hoffman.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#287346) #
Thanks China fan.
That information helped a lot, useful stuff.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#287347) #
Ricciardi didn't draft HS picks because he thought College/University picks moved into the Majors faster. Oops.

The Jays have two critical picks and one important (in top 50) one. With the first two picks, I want a Hitter and a Pitcher, but I don't know who's who.
smcs - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#287348) #
Aren't those the same waivers that are used in August?
uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#287349) #
the bottom line is that a) he's a 34yr old career minor leaguer and b) he has options left.

there are those courtesy waivers required but they're relatively meaningless.
92-93 - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#287350) #
Great game today. Jays played well in front of a nice crowd today (compared to last Saturday) and the offense acted as an ace starter, in that it provided the core 5 of the bullpen a night off (though McGowan did get warm, which I thought was unnecessary that early). Today's win should set the Jays up to have the entire bullpen available for their next 2 games.

It's great seeing Bautisa & Encarnacion hitting balls the other way; it limits what teams can do against them defensively and sets the tone for a team-wide approach of taking what the pitcher is giving you and not trying to pull balls on the outer half that inevitably turn into weak ground balls.

Stroman now HAS to get to another start, so it'll be interesting to see how the Jays manage their current 6 starter, 6 reliever staff.
Mylegacy - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#287351) #
OK - considering how wrong Stoman made me look today - it actually feels great. This kind of wrong I should be more often! My wife might suggest it happens more often than I realize - but she's a notoriously serious Scotch drinker (not like me) so who can trust her judgement - to support my case remember she married me - and I distinctly remember she was sober for most of that week....

You all agree with me, of course, (you do don't you) that Stoman's FB is just too straight and doesn't have enough downward slant... well... good news all... overnight he found a FB with lots of movement on it. Just to make us look like jerks. (Or at least some of us)...

Wouldn't it be nice if the little sh*t actually pulled a Pedroia and became something quite special! Calls for a Scotch I'd say - maybe even a double...

Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 31 2014 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#287352) #
Everyone makes mistakes, just be like some of us and never be wrong. After all, while I may not always be right, I am never wrong.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#287353) #
According to BP Pitch F/X, before todays game Stroman's FB had 6.03 V mov and 9.01 H mov.

Lets compare that to some other notable starters:

Strasbourg: 5.67 H mov 9.03 V mov
Samardzija: 6.55 H mov 8.64 V mov
Zack Wheeler: 6.55 H Mov 8.64 V Mov
Jose Fernandez: 5.26 H move 8.56 V mov


...lets end this debate that Stroman's fastball is flat and can't get on the downward plane. The guy is good, and will continue to be good moving forward.
bpoz - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#287354) #
Thanks Shoeless Joe. Since I do not understand, please explain. So V is vertical & H is horizontal? The higher the number the better? I do know that he threw hard in his last inning of work. So we should definitely be delighted, unless I am wrong.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#287356) #

Yes V is for vertical movement and H is for horizontal movement, and the higher the number the better. For example Verlanders FB has 7.11 H mov and 10.1 H Mov, which is quite nasty.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/

NOTE: In my original post I had Stroman's Verticla Movement and Horizontla Movement reversed, oops. 

bpoz - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#287357) #
Thanks Shoeless Joe. It may or may not matter which number is bigger the V or H. Chris Sale is doing fine, even though his numbers are backwards 12 and 6 compared to how the other pitchers pitch. Thanks again.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#287358) #
Yeah, thanks, Shoeless Joe.

I set the BP leaderboard for SPs with more than 50 fastballs thrown this year (178 SPs) and sorted by V-Mov leaders (on said fastball), and noticed J.A. Happ was the top Blue Jay by a decent margin. Happ comes in at #25. He has 10.7 V-Mov and 5.07 H-Mov. Something around 9.2 V and 4.8 H seems to be average. That got me thinking about the whole height issue again. Happ is 6'5" -- does it help to be tall? Well, here are the top 5 SPs in V-Mov:

Marco Estrada---6'0", 12.5 V, 3.3 H, 4.03/5.46/3.92 (ERA/FIP/xFIP)
Travis Wood----5'11", 12.3 V, 4.1 H, 5.15/3.84/4.06
Chris Tillman----6'5", 12.2 V, 2.2 H, 4.63/4.57/4.56
Chris Young----6'10", 11.9 V, 1.5 H, 3.27/5.40/5.73
Michael Wacha---6'6", 11.9 V, 3.0 H, 2.45/2.71/3.14

Hmm… Hard to know what to make of this list. If you calculate the average, these guys are 6'4", but it's interesting that the top two guys in terms of V-mov in all of baseball are quite short. It's also interesting, what with all the talk of the influence of V-Mov on HR rate, that the guy with the best V-Mov in all of baseball is leading the NL in HRs allowed! Marco Estrada has given up 17 HRs in 67 IP. And I don't think it's that he's getting lit up (just) on his other pitches -- I don't know where to check for HR allowed by pitch type, but FanGraphs does list Estrada as being below average in terms of runs against on his fastball. In other words, the guy with the best V-mov in baseball is below average on that pitch. Hmm…

One other thing about that list is that all five pitchers have below average H-Mov. The list of pitchers itself isn't particularly strong, and I suppose that suggests that if you're really going to have nasty stuff you need to be strong in both H-Mov and V-Mov.

Now, just for the sake of comparison, what if we check the top 5 H-Mov instead?

Chris Sale----------6'6", 6.5 V,12.0 H, 94.5 MPH, 1.73/1.80/2.48
Alex Wood---------6'4", 7.8 V, 8.9 H, 90.9 MPH, 3.40/3.19/2.96
Hector Santiago--6'0", 9.1 V, 8.8 H, 92.3 MPH, 4.82/5.10/5.06
Zach McAllister-- 6'6", 7.1 V, 8.2 H, 93.4 MPH, 5.89/3.83/4.04
David Price--------6'6", 9.3 V, 8.2 H, 94.4 MPH, 4.27/3.25/2.83

This is actually a slightly taller group (not that it means anything), and a better group. Not sure if that's just a coincidence, though -- things might change if I could summon more energy (can't) and look at the top 10 in each category. Similar to the first group, with their below average H-Mov, this group of pitchers have below average V-Mov. It really does look, for the most part, that you get to have one or the other.

So going back to Stroman, we seem to have evidence that height doesn't really matter for V-Mov, and that H-Mov might be more important anyway. And, in fact, believers in Stroman have often commented on his H-Mov being good enough to overcome his lack of V-Mov.

But, of course, as Shoeless Joe points out, he actually has shown pretty good V-Mov. On that same list of 178 SPs, Stroman is #83 in V-Mov, #53 in H-Mov. Definitely good enough as long as the other components are also there -- velocity, control, and secondary pitches.

Just to add to this last point, here's a list of the top 5 SPs (by xFIP):

Masahiro Tanaka----8.9 V, 4.5 H, 2.06/2.52/2.09
Zack Greinke-------9.9 V, 1.7 H, 2.18/3.02/2.53
Corey Kluber-------7.2 V, 6.5 H, 3.04/2.22/2.54
Stephen Strasburg---8.9 V, 5.9 H, 3.15/2.45/2.60
Felix Hernandez-----8.7 V, 2.5 H, 2.57/2.23/2.71

The MLB SP average, as I mentioned, is 9.2 V-Mov and 4.8 H-Mov. This group averages 8.7 and 4.2. So those other things -- velocity, control, secondary pitches (deception, too, comes to mind) -- are what's really important anyway.
smcs - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#287359) #
V Mov doesn't measure vertical movement. It measures the difference between where a pitch is expected to end up versus where it actually ends up. Because fastballs are thrown with a lot of backspin, they end up higher than where they are expected to finish than if there were no backspin on them. His problem isn't 'flatness' per se, but the perception of flatness from the hitter's eye. Stroman can't release the ball from as high as someone like Hutchison (who is listed as being 6 inches taller than Stroman), and he can't generate as much of a downward angle on his ball, because he is throwing from so much lower to the ground. For Stroman and Hutchison to pitch to the bottom of the zone, Stroman's pitch is going to look flatter to a hitter because it is released at a much lower angle. Is it a death knell for his career? No, but it is something he is going to have to overcome if he is going to succeed.



uglyone - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#287360) #
welp, gose is coming back down to earth. Which is never fun to see but at least it takes away the temptation to keep him up when colby comes back....because gose definitely should still be working on things in AAA, even if the chances of any dramatic improvements at this point are getting slimmer.


and I know in my heart that Buehrle is getting lucky this year....but I'll be damned if I can actually see any of that luck going in when he's pitching. He just isn't giving up any hard hit balls, like ever.
grjas - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#287361) #
I think Navarro's impact on Buerhle is underrated. He may not frame pitches or throw well, but he calls a very good game for a pitcher who relies solely on his catcher.
scottt - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#287362) #
I wonder if Janssen was available and what's the plan with Hendriks? 
scottt - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#287363) #
Buehrle is still on track for 28 wins.
uglyone - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#287364) #
Liam Hendriks back to buffalo. The right move. Nice to get two successful starts from him but his peripherals suggested imminent implosion.

No corresponding move yet, though I'm guessing it's an RP coming up.


Looks like Stroman earned himself the starting gig, for now at least.
China fan - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#287365) #
Since there's been so much debate about the Jays bullpen among Bauxites this season, I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts on who should be promoted to replace Hendriks.  It's virtually certain to be a reliever.  Who should it be?   Rasmussen and Korecky are ineligible, I believe.  Wagner blew a save for Buffalo tonight, allowing 4 runs in less than an inning (although admittedly it was a rare occurrence for him).  Other options might be Jenkins or even Stilson or Tepera.  Who would you choose?
China fan - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#287366) #
"....I wonder if Janssen was available....."

Yes, he was.   He was actually warming up in the bullpen in the 8th inning, but then he sat down when Encarnacion's homer made it 4-0 and it was no longer a save situation.
China fan - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#287367) #
Further to the question about which pitcher to promote from the minors:  Wagner and Rasmussen both suffered minor injuries in tonight's game, apparently. 
92-93 - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#287368) #
Another position player, naturally.

I don't really care who it is, because Gibbons isn't likely to trust them anyway. Jenkins works for me.
uglyone - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#287369) #
After a career of being a mediocre MILB starter, Tepera's been kinda awesome since being moved to the bullpen this year:

RHP R.Tepera (26): 18gms, 25.1ip, 12.1k/9, 4.6bb/9, 0.4hr/9, .328babip, 1.38whip, 2.49era, 2.71fip

Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#287370) #
Janssen last pitched the 29th. Cecil last pitched the 27th. Delabar last pitched the 29th. McGowan last pitched the 28th. That looks like 4 well rested Relievers to me.

Redmond pitched the 30th (3.0 IP) and might not be available before the 3rd, at the earliest. Although between the 10th and the 31st, he only pitched 2.1 innings in between, so I don't know how fresh he is. Loup pitched tonight after a day off. I'd like to give him more than just one day off, to keep him as fresh as possible for as long as possible.

I'd like to think that whomever receives the call-up is on the 40-man to simplify issues. That limits it to Kyle Drabek, Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, Sean Nolin (if healthy) or Neil Wagner. So this call-up should be interesting.
scottt - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#287371) #
Probably Jenkins and he could be down before throwing a pitch.
Mylegacy - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#287372) #
Uglyone - you say "and I know in my heart that Buehrle is getting lucky this year....but I'll be damned if I can actually see any of that luck going in when he's pitching. He just isn't giving up any hard hit balls, like ever."

Is there a possible that; not "...giving up any hard hit balls, like ever." - might just include a tiny bit of luck?

Perhaps a smidgen of luck, a speck, a dot, or a scintilla...or not...
Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#287373) #
Compare who's been his catchers since the beginning of time, since he's pitched so long. Buehrle and Navarro might just have something magic going on.
China fan - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#287374) #
".....Gibbons isn't likely to trust them anyway....."

That's often the case, but not always.  He did send out Rasmussen to get Ortiz at a key point of the Boston series.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#287375) #
We are disappointed when our team doesn't win every game. When a Starter gives up more than 3 Runs, that's an issue. When Relief gives up more than 1 Run, that's an issue. When the Offense doesn`t score 4 or more Runs, that`s an Issue. When the Defense costs a Run/Runs, that`s an issue.

But when more than one of the above happen, that`s a problem. Example: Lead-off triple, and the next hitter hits a shallow fly ball, a base on balls, then pop out, fly out gets nothing. And the opposing Starter gets a boost from stranding a lead-off triple. Then your starter can`t pitch!
greenfrog - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#287376) #
The Jays' starting lineup today, by wRC+:

Reyes 102
Cabrera 131
Bautista 177
EE 161
Lind 177
Francisco 164
Lawrie 89
Navarro 85
Gose 105

That is a pretty incredible performance by the lineup so far.

Also, I'm happy the Jays didn't try to save a few million by swapping Lind (who has been scorching this year) for, say, Overbay or Ibanez. Lind as the LH half of the DH platoon and Francisco/Lawrie/Tolleson as the 3B/2B trio is working out perfectly.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#287377) #
I hope the Hendriks' move means that Hutchison is ready to go.  Personally, I don't know what the point of sending Hendriks down today is.  He can be used in long relief if need be, and the bullpen will be fully rested on Tuesday.  It would make more sense to see how Hutchison does on Tuesday and make a move after the game if he is A-OK.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 01 2014 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#287378) #
Liam Hendriks next day to pitch as a Starter would be Monday, Jays are off, but Drabek`s scheduled for Buffalo. I think Buffalo`s off Tuesday so I agree with Mike Green.

Saving two days of paying Hendriks MLB rate is the only other reason that make even remote sense. The corresponding move isn`t being announced/made until Tuesday.

I expect Hutchison to be fresher with 8 days off between starts. Of course ready-to-go is a state of mind Hutchison might not have achieved.
scottt - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#287379) #
It makes sense to keep the 6th starter in Buffalo getting regular starts.
I wouldn't mind McGuire getting one start at some point, but I'm not really hoping for it.

They might not need a bullpen arm until Thursday, but I don't see the point of having Goins, Diaz, Kawazaki or Mastroianni on the bench for a couple days.

As a platoon player, Lind is one of the best hitter in baseball. We've known this for years.

China fan - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#287381) #
".... I don't know what the point of sending Hendriks down today is....."

As scottt mentions above, the point is actually perfectly clear.  Hendriks is much more valuable as a starter than as a long-man in the bullpen.  (The Jays have plenty of long men in the bullpen or in Buffalo already.)  The long man in the bullpen doesn't get enough work to be ready to slip into the rotation -- look at Redmond, whose usage is very sporadic.  Or look at Stroman, whose bullpen work wasn't enough to prepare him for a start, so he had to be sent back to Buffalo to give him a couple of starts before he could go into the Jays rotation.   By giving Hendriks some starts in Buffalo, he'll remain fully stretched out, and he'll be ready to jump back into the Jays rotation at any point.   He's now the 6th man, and -- as always on the Jays -- this is a very valuable job.  Injury could strike at any moment, or someone like Happ or Hutchison or Stroman could begin to struggle.  Hendriks has to be fully stretched out and ready to go.  There's really no other 6th man available at the moment.  Nolin is still recovering from injury.  Redmond and Jenkins and Rogers are not stretched out.  Hendriks has shown that he can pitch 6 innings in the majors, and that's a very valuable thing.  He has to be starting, not relieving.
Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#287382) #
The key word was "today", CF.  There is real question about Hutchison's ability to stay in the rotation due to the recent decline in his velocity.  If Hutchison gets knocked around on Tuesday, you bring on Hendriks in long relief and you have him ready for Hutchison's next start.  If not, you ship him down to Buffalo and he makes a start for Buffalo on Wednesday. 
Kasi - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#287383) #
That's a bit extreme/overreaction. His last game wasn't even his lowest FB velocity of the year. Most pitchers go through some velocity ebb and flows as the season progresses. Although he's a bit young to be permanently losing velocity like say CC Sabathia or Verlander is dealing with now. Now if his average starts dropping below 90 or 89 then sure thats a red flag. But a 90.9 is not some huge red flag.
Hodgie - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#287384) #
For those looking for a possible explanation to Buehrle's success that doesn't include just luck, give this Fangraphs article a read. With Navarro behind the plate Buehrle has significantly increased the utilization of his sinker. Now, even with the greater reliance on his sinker he isn't going to continue to prevent homeruns at the his current clip but it does offer some insight into his success.
Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#287385) #
He's coming off TJ.  All I am saying is that the logical thing to do would have been to wait.  I like Hutchison as much as anybody, but there seemed to me to be no downside to waiting until Tuesday night to make a decision.
China fan - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#287386) #
"....If Hutchison gets knocked around on Tuesday, you bring on Hendriks in long relief and you have him ready for Hutchison's next start...."

First of all, as you already noted, the bullpen is fully rested for Tuesday's game.  That includes Redmond, who can do long relief as effectively as Hendriks can.  Second, if you really want Hendriks to be "ready for Hutchison's next start", you don't have him sitting around in the bullpen with no idea of when you might use him.  You have him doing a full start in Buffalo on a scheduled basis.
Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#287387) #
Buffalo has the day off on Tuesday.  If Hutchison can't continue, Hendriks will be off rotation to fill in for him.
China fan - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#287388) #
But why do you think Hutchison is the only Jays starter who could possibly need replacement?  Happ and Stroman are just as likely to need replacement.  Hendriks is the 6th starter.  He's not Hutchison's understudy.  The job of the 6th starter is to be available if anyone has an injury or a major slump.  You can't assume that Hutchison is the only pitcher who could need replacement.  Hutchison in fact has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the rotation this year.
uglyone - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#287389) #
I don't mind giving hutch a blow but i agree the velocity "decline" didn't really exist. His command was a bigger issue last game than velocity...and the very slight decline in velo was probably him trying to improvenhis location.

But when i think about it, really Gibbons may have just done a fantastic job using clever call up timing, one extended SP outing, one extended relief outing, and the offday to give the entire rotation a breather here 1/3 thru the season, and somehow did the same for the entire bullpen at the same time.

Now the rotation is not only made up of our best 5 SP but is lined up perfectly as well - 1 buehrle, 2 hutch, 3 dickey, 4 happ, 5 stroman - with all of them pitching on at least 5 days rest next time thru. And the #6 SP is back in AAA throwing on his usual schedule. Meanwhile the bullpen is almost completely rested again aside from the long man.

Nifty bit of roster manouevring imo to get the pitching set up as well as possible for the middle third of the season, really. As long as the pitchers are relatively healthy i think we're set up to have a lot fewer pitchers used going forward than we have so far (we've used 14 different relievers and 8 starters so far).
92-93 - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#287390) #
"Also, I'm happy the Jays didn't try to save a few million by swapping Lind (who has been scorching this year) for, say, Overbay or Ibanez."

Come on. You really need to bring this up by completely misrepresenting the discussion? I get that it's an off day, but...

The purpose of such a roster shuffle would NOT have been to save a few million; it would have been to build a more rounded roster using that $. In my opinion, the Jays would have a better roster today if they traded Lind for value and used that money on Scott Kazmir. Or perhaps that money could've been used when acquiring a 2B in trade, a Kinsler or another piece we didn't know they were on. That would've allowed them to keep Lawrie at 3B and to incorporate Francisco into a DH platoon (of course you reference Overbay & Ibanez, both having bad seasons, instead of the actual lefty the Jays currently have who is mashing). Lind's tremendous start to 2014 (when he has avoided the DL) doesn't change that discussion.

Let's discuss the first placed team, though. Please.
92-93 - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#287392) #
Agreed, uglyone. I love the way they have managed the roster the last week or two. Things will get interesting when Rasmus is ready to return, but there's really no sense in worrying about that until the comes, because these things have a way of sorting themselves out. It would be a really hard decision today, though.
Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#287394) #
The June schedule is solid from tomorrow to June 29 with one day off on June 16, with two sets of four series on either side of the day off.  Neither set is too imposing- Tigers, Cardinals, Twins, Orioles and Yankees, Reds, Yankees, White Sox.  The nasty West Coast trip is at the beginning of July.

I wonder if the club will change its approach to Dickey; they really don't need him to throw 7-8 innings if the other starters are going reasonably well.  He is being pushed to be an innings-eater, and this year it hasn't worked out well.  He has been very good through about 80 pitches and then terrible after that.  This has not been his pattern since he became a knuckleballer. 




Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#287395) #
But why do you think Hutchison is the only Jays starter who could possibly need replacement?  Happ and Stroman are just as likely to need replacement.  Hendriks is the 6th starter.  He's not Hutchison's understudy.  The job of the 6th starter is to be available if anyone has an injury or a major slump.  You can't assume that Hutchison is the only pitcher who could need replacement.  Hutchison in fact has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the rotation this year.

Fair enough, CF.  I still would have kept Hendriks here until Tuesday, but I see the reasoning at least.
uglyone - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#287396) #
Yeah, i'm not sure i've ever been as happy with the jays' roster management as i've been since they gave up on rogers.

Now the entire roster makes sense to me from top to bottom, including a bench which directly addresses the weak points of the starters, and is made up of league minimum waiver exempt pieces backed up by similar quality pieces in aaa. All 5sp are legit mlb arms, most with upper rotation upside, with some dirt cheap lower upside arms with great numbers backing them up in aaa. the pen has a great closer, two great lefties, a good longman, and a whole whack of flamethrowing rhp (delabar, santos, mcgowan, wagner, rogers, stilson, tepera, korecky) to choose from to fill the other three spots.

Not sure i've ever had this little to complain about, rosterwise, at least in utilizing the best of what we have at the bottom end of the roster.

I guess i'm not in love with the three catcher setup, and wouldn't mind goedert getting a shot in kratz' spot, but that's nitpicking to the extreme.

Of course i wouldn't mind adding a legit ace at the top of the roster.
electric carrot - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#287397) #
I noticed a somewhat surprising and not as surprising stats about our team the other day.  While we don't lead the league in runs scored we lead by a very comfortable margin in Total Bases and OPS.  More surprising to me at least is that while we are middle of the pack in terms of team ERA (9th out of 15) we are 14th out of 15 in terms of OPS against and total bases given up.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/league/al/sort/opponentOPS/type/expanded/order/false

It seems our pitching has been a lot more dreadful than I would otherwise have imagined.



electric carrot - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#287398) #
Blasted link doesn't work but we are OPS against at .749 which really is pretty terrible.  Imagine if Buehrle was excluded.
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#287399) #
When you deal with stats, you can make them say anything you want. When only a few stats are used the make a point, the field of view becomes very narrow.

Take 1 ER away from all multi-run innings of more than 3 runs. Guess who has the best pitching staff in baseball?

When you consider just the innings where the Starter fails to complete the inning. Most of the problem occurs in this inning. Relievers prefer starting a clean inning as they don't always succeed in shutting down opponents offense.

Allowed Runs are ignored. Starters leave them out there and Relievers let then in. Starter ERA outside of these runs is much better as is Reliever ERA. Can anything be done? No, it's too much work.

Buehrle pitched great, yet his OPS for the game isn't as good as it should be, all those extra base hits he stranded count for OPS regardless of runs scored or how well a game is pitched.
uglyone - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#287400) #
The only positive spin i can think of there is that the egregious offenders are all off the team for now.

Buehrle .656
Dickey .711
Hutch .736
Happ .805
Stroman .478 / Hendriks .569
--------------
McGowan .845
Morrow .852



Janssen .427
Mcgowan .492
Loup .532
Delabar .661
Cecil .689
Redmond .821
Rasmussen .775 / Korecky .000
---------------
Happ .800
Wagner .882
Rogers .932
Santos .988
Stroman 1.151
Jeffress 1.219
Jenkins 1.385


Which probably helps explain why May was so much better than April.
Lylemcr - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#287401) #

Wow!  Hutchinson has a bad start and we are ready to put him to pasture.

In his last two starts, he gave up a combined 1 Earned run , including a complete game shutout.  You guys are a tough audience.

Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#287402) #
Game One vs KC really came down to Reyes' throw to First. If he doesn't muff it, we win. Do we win Game Two if we win Game One? I think so.
electric carrot - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#287403) #
The only positive spin i can think of there is that the egregious offenders are all off the team for now.

That is actually pretty reassuring.  Although it doesn't bode too well for Happ.  I still like the idea of getting another starter.
Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#287404) #
Opposition OPS over a 3rd of a season has somewhat limited value in evaluating a pitcher.  In Happ's case, his 2014 ERA/FIP/xFIP are 4.10/5.26/4.49.  Over his career, the same numbers are 4.24/4.42/4.45.  He has basically pitched at his career level in 2014 except that more balls have left the yard than usual and his BABIP is 15 points out lower (hence the higher FIP and the typical xFIP). 

It would be nice to have a 5th starter who was a little better than this, but really that is not the club's major issue at this point. Nick Franklin is wasting away in Tacoma...

Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#287405) #
In Seattle.../brain cramp
hypobole - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#287406) #
"It seems our pitching has been a lot more dreadful than I would otherwise have imagined."

Our pitching at the RC is dreadful, because it's a dreadful place to pitch.

Opponents are slugging .444 vs our pitchers at home. That's the worst in the AL and only Arizona's .449 is worse overall.

Opponents are slugging .381 when we are on the road. That's 4th best in AL and 8th best overall.

That's why I don't understand the thinking that FA pitchers have any desire to pitch here without a massive overpay. Assume you are Scott Kazmir and you have an offer from Oakland for 2yrs/$22 million. How much more would AA have to pay him to pitch in our launching pad? Assuming Kazmir and his agent care about future earnings, my guess is a hell of a lot more.

92-93 - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#287407) #
Shouldn't we be assuming that when weighing the value of a FA SP, the market understands that the stats generated in Oakland are very different than those generated in Toronto? Why do we always work from an implicit assumption that MLB GMs are stupid enough to be fooled by the back of the baseball stats, without thinking about park factors?

I'll put that question another way - do we have evidence of two pitchers with similar sabermetric value (and similar age, experience) who received very different contracts in the same offseason because one's ERA was consistently much lower?
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#287408) #
If opponents are slugging .444 vs our pitchers at home, what are our Batters slugging vs their pitching at home? The Jays are presently 22-15 at Home and 16-11 on the Road. If you can't pitch here, you shouldn't be here. You might be able to pitch in a weaker division or maybe the NL.
scottt - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#287409) #
Who's the last pitcher who walked out of Toronto?
mathesond - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#287410) #
Who's the last pitcher who walked out of Toronto?

Halladay? Clemens? Burnett?
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#287412) #
Why do we always work from an implicit assumption that MLB GMs are stupid enough to be fooled by the back of the baseball stats, without thinking about park factors?

The GMs might not be fooled anymore but it doesn't mean the pitchers themselves don't care about ERA. Pitchers also might not realize that GMs include park effects in assessing them. But then also, even if the pitchers are aware of all that, it probably still makes sense to choose the better pitching environment. A place like Oakland means fewer pitches per inning and perhaps less stress on your arm. The pitch efficiency itself, if it leads to more IP, would help your advanced stats like WAR, and I don't know if all GMs would catch on to that. It's probably also more fun pitching somewhere where you can give up 3 runs a day instead of 4.
scottt - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#287413) #
Halladay was a trade. Clemens was a century ago. Burnett bought out his contract and went to the Yankees for a huge raise. Funny thing is, when Burnett was in Toronto, the RC had Pitching Park Factors of 100, 99, and 97. (So  either neutral or advantaging the pitcher).

So, I don't know that there is data that shows that Blue Jays pitchers are viewed positively.

Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#287416) #
The Jays and the Orioles (-4.5) are off and Boston (now -6.5) loses 3-2 to Cleveland.
vw_fan17 - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#287417) #
Who's the last pitcher who walked out of Toronto?

All indications are that, just a couple of months ago, Ervin Santana chose Atlanta over Toronto for the same $$$, even when there was already a verbal contract in place with Toronto.
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#287418) #
The Rays (-11) lose to Miami, and that's strange to put down.
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#287420) #
Seattle crushes New York to give Toronto a + 4 Game Lead on those lowly Yankees.

Now we just have to see how the next nine games go, 3 in Detroit and then Home for six; 3 vs St. Louis and 3 vs Minnesota.
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 02 2014 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#287421) #
At this point in the season, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, L.A. Dodgers, L.A. Angels, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers are qualified for post season and nothing is strange about this. Until you include Toronto Blue Jays in that list.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#287431) #
Parents, go forth and teach your children baseball.  OK, mathematics, but everything goes better with baseball.

For the older set, today's Globe and Mail had a column in the Life section under the subject heading "LIFE EXPECTANCY" with the title "Will you see the Leafs win the Stanley Cup?".  LIke I said, everything goes better with baseball.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#287435) #
Chad Jenkins has been recalled to take Hendricks roster spot.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#287436) #
"At this point in the season, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, L.A. Dodgers, L.A. Angels, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers are qualified for post season and nothing is strange about this. Until you include Toronto Blue Jays in that list."

Now compare to payrolls:

Top 10 Payrolls (* = not in playoff position)

1. LAD 235
2. NYY 203
3. PHI 180 *
4. BOS 173 *
5. DET 162
6. LAA 156
7. SFG 154
8. TEX 136 *
9. WSH 135 *
10. TOR 133

13. STL 113
14. ATL 111
16. MIL 104

25. OAK 83

Toronto really isn't much of a surprise. Last year was more surprising.

Philly and Boston are embarassing themselves given their payrolls.

Texas and Washington are pretty bad offenders too, though texas does have a legit injury excuse.

Mil, atl, and stl are doing well for their payroll but nothing crazy, as they're all comfortably above $100m.

Oakland is the standout, of course. Probably the best team in baseball this year with one of the smallest payrolls. Turns out Beane did deserve a movie about him.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#287437) #
Just checked.... the Jays 4 game lead today is the biggest lead since the end of 1993 when the Jays were 7 games ahead at the end of the season.  8 games was the biggest lead they had that year.  In 1992 5 games was as big a lead as the Jays had, so if they can gain one more game in the standings they will have as big a lead as ever enjoyed in the first WS year.  1991 (division title) saw a 8 game lead at one point.  In 1989 they never led by more than 3 (won division).  The 1987 'blow Jays' never had more than a 3 1/2 game lead.  1985's team which won 99 games had a maximum lead of 9 1/2 games.

So this 4 game lead is one of the bigger leads in Jays history.  A bit surprised the 1987 team never led by this much, not surprised by the '89 team though as it started in an ugly hole (12-24 to start but won the division).  Fun times!

China fan - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#287448) #
".....Buffalo has the day off on Tuesday.  If Hutchison can't continue, Hendriks will be off rotation to fill in for him...."

Further to our discussion of this issue:  it turns out that Buffalo doesn't have a day off today.  And Hendriks is the starting pitcher for Buffalo tonight.  So if Hutchison needs replacing (which I think is very unlikely, but let's contemplate the possibility), Hendriks is lined up to replace him if necessary.  He'd also be available to replace anyone else who gets injured or implodes in the next few days.

A bigger concern, perhaps, is the slow erosion of the candidates for the number 7 job in the pitching depth chart.  Nolin is still not back; McGuire seems still a little raw to be promoted to the majors; Jenkins and Rogers are not stretched out; Romero is clearly not a candidate.  I'm wondering if this is one reason for Liz's promotion to Buffalo today. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#287450) #
That's weird.  I checked the schedule before commenting.  Thanks for the correction, CF.

Liz's promotion is interesting.  He may or may not make it, but I am a lot more optimistic about him than Ramon Ortiz...

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 03 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#287453) #
That's strange, because on Sunday,when I looked for the Bison's game on the schedule for Tuesday, it was not there.

Chad Jenkins has pitched enough lately that he could go 4.0 innings if needed. Redmond and Jenkins could combine to pitch a game if needed. A.A. can figure it out if it's more. But until it happens, why worry?
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