Didn't now where to put this tidbit:

Starting Pitching, AL East

1. TOR 5.7ip/gs, 3.95era
2. NYY 5.8ip/gs, 3.99era
3. TBR 5.5ip/gs, 4.00era
4. BAL 5.8ip/gs, 4.28era
5. BOS 5.9ip/gs, 4.50era

And that's dragged down by McGowan, who wasn't really ready for a full workload when he made his first start. It's certainly a nice start.

Can you believe the ERA of the starters for Oakland?  Sureal!

No kidding.  Oakland's rotation...
Pomeranz (just shifted there) 400 ERA+
Sonny Gray 188
Jesse Chavez 147
Scott Kazmir 156
Tommy Milone 94 is the slacker of the group.

When the Jays claimed Hendriks and DFA Morel in the offseason, it was met with some criticism here - another pitcher added while losing a positional player - even if Hendriks doesn't work out, I will still think of it as a good gamble - nice move to have Kratz catch Hendriks as he probably did in Buffalo - happy with lefty Kazmir pitching to have the superior infield defence.

Kudos to AA, it must have been tough on his ego to DFA Rogers - what a comical disaster those series of moves were - not only giving a potential allstar catcher for Rogers, but if we had kept Aviles, likely would not have spent 9M on Izturis & along with Farrell, the jays sent David Carpenter to Boston, he's been very good in Atlanta (I remember Buster Onley writing how high the jays were on Carpenter after the trade from Houston) - I still think Rogers will be a serviceable pitcher - Astros/Cubs should take him and just stick him in the rotation.

Reading a lot of sentiment to go all in and get Samardzija - At present, I'm opposed to that - with so many teams in the wildcard chase and Samardzija pitching well, I think his price has gone up & the original price was too high - I'm still skeptical of NL pitchers - last year the Jays got 3 NL pitchers, only Buehrle, with previous AL success has succeeded. Last year the contending Cardinals give the ball to youngsters Wacha & Miller to great success - I'd rather run with Stroman/Hendriks/Drabek et al. I don't want to sell out for 1 or 2 seasons and then another rebuild - I'd rather a constant contender and in the playoffs, mostly it's the hottest team that wins. I like the Atlanta model rather than the Marlins model even though the Marlins have 2 rings & the Braves only 1

updated after Pillar's 3 hit performance yesterday:

MLB vs. LHP

CF K.Pillar: 48pa, .289avg, .333obp, 422slg, .756ops, 108wrc+
(CF C.Rasmus: 736pa, .215avg, .284obp, .360slg, .643ops, 76wrc+)
CF A.Gose: 89pa, .250avg, .277obp, .338slg, .615ops, 66wrc+

MiLB vs. LHP (since 2011)

CF K.Pillar: 433pa, .361avg, .398obp, .527slg, .925ops
CF A.Gose: 419pa, .232avg, .317obp, .300slg, .617ops

I have to say I have pretty much zero faith in Hendriks being good, but hopefully he gets lucky.

Though he did just get a whole bunch of swinging strikes that first inning.....with his 91-92mph fastball. That's surprisingly sweet.

Just turned on the game. Did Gibbons need to pull Hendriks there? His pitch count seemed low.

Gibbons get bored if he can't flip 3 or 4 pitchers in from the bullpen.

Great outing by Hendricks.

I think most fans were surprised that Hendriks even came back out for the 6th.....let alone stayed in after the leadoff walk.

really fighting his command the last few batters....walked as many batters this game (3) as he had all season in AAA (also 3), not to mention a whole bunch of warning track shots.

We got what we needed from Hendriks, 5.2ip, only 1 run...but that was probably a good pull....and I usually hates the quick hook.

Nice outing, but I'm not sure I'd like to watch that highwire act every five days.

Yes Hendricks needed to be pulled. If the walls in the RC were 10 feet closer Hendricks would have given up 3-4 home runs.

I don't know.  The A's did hit some balls hard, but even if Hendriks gives up another solo home run, it would have been all right.  Let's see how he does when he doesn't face the best offence in the league.

Yes Hendricks needed to be pulled. If the walls in the RC were 10 feet closer Hendricks would have given up 3-4 home runs.

Same could be said for Kazmir. Melky alone would have had 2.

Yes he had 3 walks, but 6 baserunners in 5+2 innings is not bad. Only 80 pitches in... I would have give him some rope. But I hate seeing 4 or 5 relievers game after game. That's a lot of wear and tear in the warmups alone. Might work short term but...

Preserving the win was the most important thing today.

As for the best offense in the league, it's one that rely on walks more than hits or homeruns. In that regard, maybe the 3 walks aren't so bad.

All of the base runners came at the end for the most part. Bases left loaded in the 5th (inning ending with a flyball to the wall), then another guy on in the 6th. It was a good pull... he was getting ready to implode.

Everyone so worried about Liam Hendricks that J.A. Happ is suddenly Mr. Dependable. Hendriks' minor league stats this season are much better than his usual fair. That usually suggests that maybe 'he's got it'. Making any judgement (of any kind) of what he's got is ridiculous. Wait for his second and third starts, then we'll see who we got. He's only 25.

Edwin Encarnacion's defense that last 2 games.

Excuse me, I'm going to go back into the kitchen and continue duct taping the shattered fragments of my head together.

Please don't ever mention Drabek as a rotation candidate again.

If we are going to add a pitcher (I would wait, but if we do) then I don't want samardzija. I want someone with more of a track record of pitching deep into games and with an AL East history.

I said in the off-season that Arroyo could be Buerhle lite and I'd still like to see if that might work provided Arizona starts blowing things up.

I no longer think that we need a 2B because I think Gibby can platoon the hell out of this lineup with his current bench.

It's very pleasant to look in the rear-view mirror and see the Rays and Red Sox 6 games behind.  Now, pedal to the metal.

I checked Chavez' game logs for 2014.  He's had a bit of a soft ride so far, and he has tailed off a bit after a very hot start against weak opposition.  With Lind, Francisco, Gose and Thole likely in the lineup today and the roof rolled back, it's a good time for a long-sequence offence. 

I really like how they go from 9 rh bats to 5 lh bats.

It seems to me that the team is better without Rasmus.

1 1/2 games in the lead on May 24th, so no matter what the Jays will be in first all alone tomorrow morning as well.  The latest they have been since 2000 when they were tied for first with the Yankees on July 14th (percentage points behind) - July 6th 2000 was the latest they were alone in first place (1/2 a game up on the Yankees).  Hard to believe the Jays were just 4 1/2 back at the end of that season - I know it didn't feel that close largely because the Jays were 10 out on September 13th and lost 7 of their last 8 games.  That was the year on July 19th that Ash did the Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza trade, which might not even be his worst trade (geez did Ash do a lot of bad trades).

Weird year in 2000.  Just checked the AAA team for the Jays and they had Mark Eichhorn in 17 games doing well (16 1/3 IP 5 H 2 R 2 BB 17 SO), but never called up.  Bob File pitching well in AAA as well but never called up.  This on a team that had a nightmare bullpen where Koch was a good closer, Quantrill had a 'meh' season, while the rest of the pen sucked.  It was the year Halladay had a 10.64 ERA, Carpenter a 6.26 and Escobar 5.35 (95 ERA+ though...it was a nutty era).  Imagine if any of those 3 were anywhere near the levels they'd be known for later.  Homer Bush was still at 2B for some reason (33 OPS+ over 325 PA).  The bench had lots of suckage (Marty Cordova 65 OPS+, Alberto Castillo 40, Mickey Morandini 58, Chris Woodward 47  all had 100+ PA).  In September they called up Vernon Wells and Josh Phelps (both kids at this point) and gave them a grand total of 3 PA.  Lots of issues there that Ash just couldn't deal with and the manager (Fregosi) was not up to dealing with.  It was a frustrating season yet the closest the Jays have been since 1993.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/orioles-acquire-hundley-from-padres-for-patton/

Hundley was San Diego's best performing catcher, and a veteran. They're trading him away for a lefty reliever whose stats aren't very good.

Do the Padres' actions make more sense to someone else?

Who is this Anthony Gose guy on the Jays? Smart at the plate? Patient? Great base running?

would love to be the first team to really lay a beating on Chavez this year.

I mean, it's Jesse fricken Chavez.

Esmil Rogers has cleared waivers and is off to Buffalo. This could mean he was placed on waivers before the Thursday game in Boston.

Nick Hundley is pretty bad. Not much to see there.

Watching Anthony Gose play today--I'd say he's ready for the prime time. Surely a Colby Rasmus and Marcus Stroman package could net a solid to front end pitcher?

What I expected with Rogers.

Not interested, sam.  Everyone has a different opinion with regard to Stroman. I'd part with Sanchez in a heartbeat though, and I know you wouldn't.

And as for Rasmus, he's still a good player despite the slow start and the injury.  It would be a gutty move to say that Gose is ready to be as good or better over a season on the basis of 12 major league games. It might be the right thing to do, but it would be easy to get burned.

Great job by RA today.

AA has been strongly criticized over the last year or more, but somehow many of his impugned moves (apart fron Gomes and Hill) are looking good again: the Miami trade, the Dickey trade, the acquisitions last off-season (Navarro, Francisco, Hendriks) as depth, keeping Lind, keeping his best relievers at last year's trade deadline, etc.

For the moment anyway, the team has a great record and the roster looks quite balanced. The Jays could use another SP and an above-average second baseman, but there is little to complain about right now, especially for a GM impeded by a huge corporate stop sign.

Love that Reyes said after the game that his leg feels 100%.

Even if Gose isn't as good as Rasmus--and Rasmus has never been consistent--he's better defensively, he can be platooned and he saves the team over 6 millions that can be used elsewhere. Rasmus has to be gone next year and I don't think he gets a qualifying offer so, that means gone without compensation.

When Rasmus comes back it would be smart to rest him against some lefties.

This is about time the Jays start using the platoon advantage. Today 8 of the 9 hits came from guys who started the game in the right hitter's box. I'm hoping to see 9 right handed hitter again tomorrow and who knows what will happen.

On MLB Trade Rumors or your favorite Rosenthal site, he discusses last Offseason's Samardzija discussion. Apparently Chicago asked for Drew Hutchison and one of Stroman or Sanchez.

In acquiring anything this All Star Break, I'd trade Sanchez easily long, long, long before I move Stroman. Stroman's value is apparent while Sanchez's value is fading.

Stroman's value is apparent while Sanchez's value is fading.

Don't follow. Sanchez as had some control problems, but his stuff has been dominant. Hits per 9 have averaged in the 6's the last few years. Even the opposition was commenting on him at spring training.

Stroman has pitched 5 times in the regular season and had 2 poor outings and pitched 5 times in spring training and had 4 poor outings.

I suspect and hope that they will both put it together in the majors. But there is little evidence to be definitive on one vs the other.

As to trading Rasmus and one of the two, likely tough to find a suitor. With the level of parity in the league this year, trading a top end starting pitcher suggests a club is in rebuild mode, in which case they are unlikely to want Rasmus.

So maybe the question is would you package one of the two with gose whose star is rising...and take a chance on pillar and resigning rasmus

If you won't trade what another GM values, how can you get what you want (value)? Do you think Sanchez has more value now than he has last offseason? Or more last All Star Break? I don't think he's better. I just think he's got more issues to solve. At his upside, his talent, his abilities, his age and more, he should be further along.

No one knows what another wants until you are told by that person, so putting together suggested "packages" for trade is pointless.

Roy halladay:
Age 20 - bb/9- 3.5; whip- 1.49
Age 21- bb/9- 4.1; whip- 1.37

Marcus Stroman:
Age 21- bb/9- 4.2; whip- 1.293...at A and AA combined
Age 21- bb/9- 6.8; whip-1.75...at AA

Aaron sanchez:
Age 20 - bb/9- 4.2; whip- 1.193
Age 21- bb/9- 5.6; whip- 1.324....so far

So maybe the question is would you package one of the two with gose whose star is rising

I can't believe I have to point out that this means teams would be looking at Gose's most recent 25 plate appearances and essentially ignoring his previous 1500. Let's wait til he strings together a good month, and then strings together a good year before we start talking about how good Gose is, and how he could be the replacement for Rasmus (who doesn't even need to be replaced).

Roy Hallady (18) was drafted in 1995 (17th pick) from Arvada West HS (Col). He had his cup of coffee at age 21 and at age 22 he was in the majors to stay.
Marcus Stroman (21) was drafted in 2012 (22 pick) from Duke University (NC). He's had his cup of coffee at age 23 and that's not the end of it.
Aaron Sanchez (17) was drafted in 2010 (34th pick)from Barstow HS (CA). At age 21 (01 July 1992) he's still in AA.

Discussing apples and oranges again.

I should just shut up about Sanchez.  In his start today, he faced 6 batters; four walked, one was hit by a pitch and one reached on an error.  He now has 34 walks in 48 innings. 

Mike Green
This problem with Sanchez is not a jinx. Blue Jays made changes in how he makes his delivery, that even Keith Law thought was moving backwards. Sanchez had great stuff, and average to above average control on most pitches; he just had a slightly crappy delivery that needed adjustment. Oops.

There is no money to resign Rasmus.  Every player they keep will get more expensive. They have to balance that with playing more pre-arbitration players.

Just in case yesterday was the peak of the Jays season, let me indulge in a few more tidbits of good cheer.  According to the latest Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report, the Jays now have a 51.9% chance of making the playoffs this year, and a 39.2% chance of winning the AL East division.  (The Yankees are next at 27.8%). Check it out here:  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

There's also a CBS Sports piece that anoints the Jays as the new favorites the win the AL East. It argues, as I argued a couple days ago, that the regression gods are unlikely to punish the Jays too much in the remainder of the season.  A couple of excerpts below, followed by the link:

As a whole, the Jays' offense doesn't have many tell-tale indicators of overperformance. Several players are actually due a positive BABIP regression, for example, as the team ranks 24th in baseball with a .286 batting average on balls in play. Save for Juan Francisco, no one really stands out as very obviously due a proverbial fall to Earth.

Basically, the Blue Jays haven't been one of those "everything has gone right" teams. Not even close. They've faced adversity on multiple fronts, have weathered it and still have a few areas where improvement can be expected. They're 4-4 in one-run games, so nothing's out of whack there. They have a plus-21 run differential while the other four teams in AL East all have negative run differentials. The Blue Jays are actually only 12-11 at home, a figure which appears likely to better after they host the Rays (three games) and Royals (four games) next week.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24571779/blue-jays-emerging-as-al-east-favorite

The Jays have been playing solid baseball, but it's only May. And seeing as how most commentators predicted before the season that the Jays would not make the playoffs (with many predicting a fourth- or fifth-place finish), it's hard to now put much stock in what those same commentators are saying a month and a half into the season.

Fangraphs had the Jays at 84 wins at the start of the season, and 86 wins now.  The Red Sox were projected to be the best team in the division and they understandably are not any longer. Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays to lead the majors in scoring by the end of the year but to have below average run prevention (with the decisions to trade defence for offence playing a role).

The Jays have not been particularly lucky. Drew Hutchison has pitched very well, as I thought he would.  McGowan and Morrow are no longer in the rotation, and I am not shocked by this.  The new catchers have made a significant difference, with the pitchers generally pitching better this year than last, and  with better offence to boot. 

It's interesting - I find that people almost inevitably remind others of the astute predictions they've made (mea culpa). They almost never talk about the ones that were way off the mark. Human nature, I guess.

"There is no money to resign Rasmus."

really don't think this is a concern at all.

Jays only have $96m committed for 2015, only $26m committed for 2016.

And the players in their mid to late 30s will likely be forced to re-sign for less than they're making now...if they re-sign at all.

I think far too much was made about the Jays' Starting Pitching troubles coming into the year. Sure last year was an epic disaster but there was still no good reason to project it as a crippling issue this year....and even less of a reason at this point.

Here's what our SP have done in their years as Blue Jays:

Buehrle 43gs, 6.3ip/gs, 3.66era, 3.86fip, 4.08xfip
Dickey 45gs, 6.5ip/gs, 4.15era, 4.43fip, 4.27xfip
Hutch 21gs, 5.7ip/gs, 4.02era, 3.79fip, 3.79xfip
Morrow 93gs, 5.7ip/gs, 4.40era, 3.71fip, 3.76xfip
Happ 28gs, 5.2ip/gs, 4.55era, 4.11fip, 4.46xfip

with a really good prospect or two in AAA in case of injury.

not really a rotation to project disaster again from.

For example, a few years ago a lot of people thought that signing Fielder to a big contract was a really, really swell idea. Now that idea has been consigned to the dustbin of dubious recommended baseball moves, never again to be discussed in polite company...

"....it's hard to now put much stock in what those same commentators are saying a month and a half into the season..."

The forecasts made today are inevitably going to be a lot more accurate than the forecasts before the season began.  Nearly a third of the season has unfurled by now. It's enough to assess a team's performance and make projections on the basis of the stronger evidence of its performance this season, rather than the weaker evidence of previous seasons.  In a 162-game season, 50 games is not a small sample. It's a sample that has a lot of relevance, even if it's still flawed and far from perfect.


Of course a lot of first-place teams in May have dropped out of the playoffs by the end of the season.  It often happens.  But it's likely to be a more accurate forecast than the pre-season forecasts.

"....AA has been strongly criticized over the last year or more, but somehow many of his impugned moves (apart fron Gomes and Hill) are looking good again...."

AA doesn't get enough credit for his total overhaul of the Jays starting rotation -- an overhaul that he was unexpectedly forced to undertake over the past two years, through no fault of his own.  Two years ago, it would have been reasonable to think that the Jays had assembled a very promising (and young) core of starting pitchers who would provide the nucleus for a strong rotation for many years to come.  Romero had just come off an all-star season with a 2.92 ERA.   Morrow was just embarking on a season in which he would post a 2.96 ERA.  Those two, Romero and Morrow, were young enough that most people would have assumed that they would be the cornerstone of the rotation for years to come.  The rest of the rotation also featured good young talent -- Cecil and Drabek and Alvarez -- who were still obviously flawed but were young enough that the Jays could have reasonably expected a couple of them to turn into reliable starters. 

Fast forward two years, and none of those five pitchers are in the current rotation. Romero imploded; Morrow has been repeatedly injured; Drabek had TJ surgery and hasn't lived up to his promise; Alvarez is gone and Cecil is in the bullpen.  As a result, AA had to do a complete overhaul of all five positions in the starting rotation.  To acquire good veteran pitchers, he had little choice but to trade away good prospects -- a risky path that certainly left him open to criticism.  And of course it still might fail.  We'll know by the end of the season.  But the little-acknowledged fact is that AA had assembled a pretty good young rotation by 2012, and then he lost the core of that rotation to a series of injuries and fluke implosions, and he had to rebuild it from scratch in a two-year period.   Not an easy task.

The outfield is the outfield, and is about as good defensively now as it was at Season's start.

I think the Catching is better now too.

First Base and Short Stop are as they were at Season's start - same people.

Steve Tolleson is better defensively than anyone (at 2B) most of last year and while he's no Ryan Goins, he's good enough. When Lawrie's there, they're really good.

Juan Francisco has been a surprise at Third Base, better than expected. And then Lawrie's there.

Anyone who says the Jays traded defense for offense is speaking down a gopher hole, no one else is listening.

I would have traded Gomes too. At the time of the trade, he was about 5th or 6th Catching option and they were having trouble finding him ABs. Hill needed a new home. Who knew his replacement would turn into a pumpkin. Carpenter on the other hand, turned into a Relief star, I don't understand. I don't think anyone else does.

Anyone who says the Jays traded defense for offense is speaking down a gopher hole, no one else is listening.

Other than yourself, who else are you presuming to speak for?

Well Chuck, apparently you think differently.

At season start we had everyone currently on the list with only one change, Goins (OK, extra Reliever). He's not that big a difference.

So if I'm the only who thinks so, the gophers must have many new neighbors. What's the view like?

"Roy Hallady (18) was drafted in 1995 (17th pick) from Arvada West HS (Col). He had his cup of coffee at age 21 and at age 22 he was in the majors to stay."

And all this time I thought I was alone in thinking that the 2000 and 2001 seasons never actually happened, that they were just a bad dream. Put that in your pipe reality....

Per FanGraphs, here's J.A. Happ's average fastball velocity over the years:

2007: age 24, 87.7 MPH
2008: age 25, 88.9 MPH
2009: age 26, 89.7 MPH
2010: age 27, 89.8 MPH
2011: age 28, 90.0 MPH
2012: age 29, 90.5 MPH
2013: age 30, 91.1 MPH
2014: age 31, 92.2 MPH

Remarkable, wouldn't you say? Velocity generally peaks when pitchers are in their early 20s, then begins a steady, even steep, decline after age 26. But Happ just gets better each year; he's added almost 5 MPH to his fastball from age 24 to 31.

For example, a few years ago a lot of people thought that signing Fielder to a big contract was a really, really swell idea. Now that idea has been consigned to the dustbin of dubious recommended baseball moves, never again to be discussed in polite company...

People don't understand the Marlins model. Sign on a large contract and trade away after a year or two. Fielder has worked out very well for Detroit.

Romero imploded; Morrow has been repeatedly injured; Drabek had TJ surgery and hasn't lived up to his promise; Alvarez is gone and Cecil is in the bullpen.  As a result, AA had to do a complete overhaul of all five positions in the starting rotation.

It's AA who brought Morrow to the rotation. Cecil has turned out about as well as expected. Alvarez is not just gone, he was traded as part of that complete overhaul. One of those 5 starters was Hutch and he is back. Nothing to do with AA.

"....It's AA who brought Morrow to the rotation..."

You're missing the point.  I wasn't talking about who brought them to the rotation.  I was talking about how the nucleus of a good rotation (especially Romero and Morrow) fell apart and had to be replaced.

If you look at most teams around the majors, they don't have to do a total overhaul of their rotation every 2 years.  Most teams have a couple of starters who have been in the rotation for several years. The Jays, mostly due to injury and fluke implosion, do not have the benefit of that.

Not sure what Gibbons was arguing about, there's no way that replay is definitive. Was he just bored?

The A's didn't think Morrow could last in the rotation. He was never a solid number 2.

Very impressive performance by Happ today.  Seven shutout innings against the top-scoring team in the league. Allowed only 4 hits. Recorded 7 strikeouts vs 4 walks. Went to 110 pitches, and seemed as strong at the end as he was at the beginning.  His season ERA is down to 3.34.

And this is the guy that so many fans wanted to dump. Maybe he's worth keeping? 

Redmond hasn't pitched much. Gibbons is only using a six-man Bullpen without him.

Rack up another save for Janssen, He's made a huge difference to this team since coming back from injury. I think he's a terrific closer. The roto websites, like Rotoworld, cbssports, etc., just don't give him much respect. Many of these were saying all along while he was out that he would have a tough time getting the closer job again, that Santos and others were better options. Just a week ago, one of them said they still thought that Santos would end up with more saves this year than Janssen.

people almost inevitably remind others of the astute predictions they've made

Pretty sure I'm the only guy who ever predicted Oliver Perez to win the next year's Cy Young Award. I'm so proud.

What, you don't remember him winning it?

The Jays are playing tremendous baseball right now. It's great news for Rogers, AA, Beeston and Gibbons. Toronto loves a winner, and attendance should be robust as long as the team continues to do well.

After so many years in the wilderness, Jays fans should be taking it all in. The team and the organization have been very impressive this month. They could be setting themselves up for an exciting June draft, July 31 trade deadline, and stretch run.

AA's stock as a GM would seem to be on the rise again.

Hello, Boston fans. Yes, that was Josh Becket tossing the no-hitter and Adrian Gonzalez chipping in three hits with a couple of RBIs. If it makes you feel better, Carl Crawford went 0-5.

Sweet win.  The pen is in good shape with Hutchison and Buehrle starting the next two games.  They face Bedard in the opener (after having seen Francis this series), so it's the RH lineup again tomorrow.

The sweep of boston was great personally for jays fans....but sweeping the best and hottest team in baseball coming into this weekend will put us firmly into the media's eye now.

Especially since i believe we're now only 1.5gms out of first in the AL, and are top-5 in MLB, and we may have just moved into the run scoring lead as well.

And oh yeah, our much maligned rotation now has something like a 3.60era and closing in on 6ip/gs, pushing them near top-5 rotation in the AL.

Not to mention our bullpen is back to awesomeness since Casey came back.

Not only is the team performing like one of the best....but you look hard up and down the roster and it'll do a good job convincing you they just are one of the best.

"Hello, Boston fans."


well, they did just finally come back and tie up a game in the late innings.....


.....but oopsie, their bullpen gives up 5 (and counting) in the next half inning and now they're getting blown out on their way to 10 in a row.

does schadenfraude always feel this good?

" Velocity generally peaks when pitchers are in their early 20s, then begins a steady, even steep, decline after age 26. But Happ just gets better each year; he's added almost 5 MPH to his fastball from age 24 to 31."

Interesting data tangledupin blue. Thx for posting. I wonder if he was on the weighted ball program this winter (though has velocity increase started a few years back, so ..)

Has anyone heard who was on the program over the winter? It had a lot of press last year, and seems to be a secret this year. Would be interesting to see if there are tangible results in year 2.

"Hello, Boston fans."

Ten games ago they were ahead of the Jays, and now they will be 8 games back. Now we just need the Yankees to implode too.

Happ was on extended rest following a line drive to the muggin. That might be a good way to strengthen one's arm. We might never know.

This is fun.  Jays in first by 2 games now over the Yankees, Orioles 2 1/2 back, Tampa 6 back, Boston 8 back.  Given Tampa & Boston were the two teams most figured would be at the top this is very fun to watch.

For AL OPS...
Bautista #3, Encarnacion #9, Cabrera #16

The rotation as is and ERA
Buehrle 2.16, Happ 3.34, Hutchison 3.45, Dickey 3.95, plus Hendrik's 1.59 in one start.  Dickey's ERA+ is 105 so all 5 are above 100 which is a big surprise.  Staff at 100 dead on thanks to dead weight Morrow, Rogers, Santos and poor ERA for Stroman among others (Jeffress, Jenkins, Wagner) who probably won't get high leverage stuff for a bit at least. 

Offensively, by sOPS+, the weak spots are 2B (73), SS (85) and C (89) with all others (outside of pitcher) at 110 or better.  2B has been covered with Tolleson having a 120 sOPS+ there and Lawrie a 94.  Reyes is showing he is back lately so I figure SS will go over 100 by seasons end.  Catcher is a bit odd as Navarro was thought to be better with the bat than he has been (76 sOPS+) as was Kratz (47 sOPS+ when catching) while Thole was expected not to hit (143 sOPS+) - hard to know what to expect there. 

Big question is how long will Francisco keep it up.  In April he has a 852 OPS, in May 1.046 (didn't play today).  0 for his last 4, but over his last 4 games (as bad a sample as I could get) you get a 762 OPS.  The guy is on fire and not regressing to expected levels (731 OPS lifetime pre this year). 

This team is fun.  Lets hope it keeps going as long as possible. In 2000 they had a 3 game lead on June 30th, tied for first July 14th.  That is the only time since 1993 they were in first in June or later. 

This has been an excellent, very good, "I'm soooo excited!" bit of a run. Delicious!

A few comments on the pitching...

Starters:

The ONLY starting pitcher presently on staff I see for the long term is Hutchison.

Buehrle is not actually human - he's a tall Hobbit - with the ability to blind every batter (temporarily) before every pitch. I keep waiting for him to implode. Like he used to do regularly when facing AL East teams.

If Tricky DIckey (no relation to ex-con, ex-prez Nixon) was our number 4 or 5 starter we'd be in good shape.

Happ - is clearly NOT hapless. He has been a pretty OK pitcher for a while but his increased velocity is allowing him to actually perform at an acceptable level. An OK number 4 guy on a Championship level team.

None of: Redmond, Hendriks, Stroman, Morrow or McGowan (at this time) give me a warm fuzzy feeling - quite the contrary. If we traded for a guy who is at least a "real" OK number 2, or a quite good number 3, that just might be enough to put us into the playoffs comfortably. A brief note on Stroman...he belongs in the pen...he is too short (there I said it), his fastball (while fast enough) is too straight and it just doesn't have an acceptable downward movement.

On the farm at AAA - Drabek, Romero and Jenkins don't deserve to be called up. (Jenkins - just maybe...but only just). At AA - Sanchez's control (never his strong point) is regressing alarmingly, McGuire just does not have enough control for the bigs, none of the other 7 who have started there belong up in TO. In High-A - we've (IM(H)O) the ONLY actual STARTING PITCHER prospect who might be able to help in 2014 (say as a Sept call-up) - drum roll - Daniel Norris (I believe he's 21 this year - same age Hutch was when we first called him up). When we drafted him he was thought to be the best HS LHP in the draft that year. He's been slowed a bit down there but is clearly rising to be the complete starter he looked to be when drafted. At this point in time I see him as the ONLY actual potential (healthy) ACE in the making.

If Osuna was healthy - he'd be on the same list Norris is on. At low A and below there are lots of interesting names - but nothing that will help until Sept 2016 - at the VERY earliest. So in 2015 I see a rotation of: Hutchison, Osuna, Norris and Happ (I assume) followed by Stieb coming out of retirement perhaps...

In the pen: The return of Janssen has been a godsend. Despite the fact personally I still don't completely trust him. The way he wobbles before he throws reminds me of Lawrie who also moves to the tune of his own personal demons before every pitch. Backing up Janssen, a flock chosen from: Delabar, Loup, Santos, McGowan, Morrow, Redmond, Wagner, and Rasmussen should do. the only real bull pen prospect in AAA right now is John Stilson - in whom I have high hopes.

The way the pitchers have been pitching for a few weeks now has me thinking we've a Championship challenging quality staff.  I would not be unhappy to see a new "starter" and (personally) I am prepared to trade Drabek and Stroman for the right man - and for the REAL RIGHT man I'd include Sanchez as well.

Time for a wee dram...

Fun for sure John.  Hard to choose the most exciting performance today, Reyes tying a career high with 3 steals or Happ's great start.  Tabler had him hitting 95 a couple of times and that velocity definitely caught me off guard.  Happ definitely seems to have a good rapport with Kratz.  It looks to me like we might be going with 3 catchers from here on.

A week or so back Buck Martinez called Buehrle his favourite pticher to watch, and while I love watching him pitch, I've gotta go with Jansen.  I really hope we can resign the guy.  If you go historically, I always loved watching Stieb and Eichorn ... and you've gotta love Doc.  Am I missing anyone?

"Big question is how long will Francisco keep it up."

to be fair, it might be time to start talking about the entire Francisco/Tolleson platoon keeping it up.

Francisco 108pa, .972ops, .416woba, 166wrc+
Tolleson 49pa, .946ops, .408woba, 160wrc+

This has been a fairly spectacular upgrade over the Izturis/Bonifacio platoon from last year.

AL Starting Rotations

ERA

1 OAK 2.89
2 LAA 3.42
3 DET 3.50
4 KCR 3.64
5 TOR 3.66
6 SEA 3.78
7 TBR 3.91
8 NYY 3.92
9 HOU 4.07
10 BAL 4.39
11 TEX 4.45
12 BOS 4.47
13 CLE 4.81
14 CHX 5.10
15 MIN 5.19


IP/GS

1 LAA 6.34
2 KCR 6.27
3 DET 6.03
4 SEA 6.02
5 OAK 5.98
6 HOU 5.94
7 BOS 5.92
8 NYY 5.80
9 BAL 5.76
10 TOR 5.73
11 TEX 5.66
12 CLE 5.65
13 CHX 5.64
14 MIN 5.61
15 TBR 5.60

Jerjapan - on Reyes. Today was the first time Reyes actually looked comfortable and FAST stealing bases. Ever since he nearly broke his leg with that ugly slide he's looked uncomfortable and scared on the bases. The real Reyes is back!

I thought the same thing. And Reyes recently said that his leg is now 100%. He seemed really upbeat when he said it. It's great news. A healthy Reyes is an offensive force to be reckoned with.

The Jays are in a place where they could run away from the rest of this division.

Boston is not as good a team as all those "know-it-alls" said they would be. Last year almost every single person on the team either had a career year or grossly exceeded all expectants. To 'win the lottery' again, is against all odds.

Tampa Bay thought their pitchers were injury-exempt or easily replaceable. Oops. Strangely enough they get to experience some of Toronto's last two years.

New York will succeed of fail if most things work or not. Issues abound, and I just don't think they're good enough any more. Eventually getting old costs.

Baltimore is the little engine that could, that ran out of could. Everything going right only happens once. Asking for it to happen every year, never works. I think they have a really good team, but it might not be good enough.

Every Team seems to have Pitching issues/injuries, plus many other Player issues/injuries. Toronto is functioning much better with their issues/injuries than most others. All parts are functioning well. They just need to keep it going for as long as possible.

2007: age 24, 87.7 MPH
2008: age 25, 88.9 MPH
2009: age 26, 89.7 MPH
2010: age 27, 89.8 MPH
2011: age 28, 90.0 MPH
2012: age 29, 90.5 MPH
2013: age 30, 91.1 MPH
2014: age 31, 92.2 MPH

Based on this trend, Happ should be touching 110 mph around age 60.

Seems AA's 'all in' last year was a year early but he said it was for 2013/14/15.  2013 flopped (obviously) but 2014 sure is looking good.

CA: Navarro below expectations, Thole way over, Kratz under
1B: Encarnacion about right (lower than last 2 years but well above earlier)
2B: Goins flopped, but Lawrie/Tolleson have been solid with Tolleson way over his head
3B: Francisco/Lawrie - Francisco = extremely over his head, Lawrie a bit below
SS: Reyes = slow start but working his way back to his norm
LF: Cabrera = inline with his PED years, way over everything else
CF: Rasmus = dead on his lifetime OPS+ (103) plus Gose playing extreme (150 OPS+) while Pillar has been OK (83)
RF: Bautista = above expectations, 165 OPS+ is one point higher than his 54 HR season
DH: Lind = way over his head so far at 161 OPS+ but a 259 OPS vs LHP sure looks like him

So on offense we have Francisco WAAAY over his head, Lind, Thole, Tolleson also way up there.  Bautista is better than expected, Cabrera much better than expected but not record breaking for his career.

The Yankees have a scrub at 3B with a 137 OPS+, Teixeira playing well again (140 OPS+), and Ichiro making a comeback (132 OPS+) but otherwise nothing jumps out at me.  Tanaka has lived up to the hype (169 ERA+) and Pineda has been WOW (224) in 4 starts.  but CC Sabathia has flopped, Nova imploded, while the pen has been excellent.

Baltimore has a disaster in LF (29 OPS+ for Lough), Cruz hitting wow, Wieters living up to the hype, Davis doing solid, but holes everywhere else.  No standouts in the rotation or pen (factoring in BB rate and K rate), well a couple doing well in the pen but we all know how that can be.

Tampa has had a 'what can go wrong has' year outside of Bedard with his 147 ERA+ (wow).

Boston has Ortiz & Napoli hitting, as are Pedroia and Bogaerts.  Lester & Lackey are solid and  the pen has been great.  But Peavy/Buchholz and Doubront can only say 'we showed up for every start'.  This is a team that is not as good as they looked last year and it looks like 'regression to the mean' this  year.

Yeah, great opening there for the Jays.  Question is can they do it?  Happ I don't trust but those fastball figures are very interesting - has he been on that weighted ball program?  Dickey I expect to be about what he is now, an inning eater with a decent but not wow ERA.  Hutch I hoped would live up to this level.  Buehrle I cannot imagine staying anywhere near this good.  Hendriks I doubt will be solid, but he deserves this shot and until he has issues what the heck eh?  Hopefully the kids on the farm keep improving. 

For 2015 Buehrle, Dickey, Happ are signed, Hutchison is pre-arb (I think), Hendriks also pre-arb.  Key parts in danger of losing are Janssen, Cabrera, and Rasmus.  Gose/Pillar are making me believe losing one of the outfielders will be OK but without Janssen I worry about the pen.  But savings are coming as Morrow comes off the books as could Santos and McGowan ($4 mil option).  Lind is in his option years but seems safe to be resigned.  This winter will be very, very interesting especially if the Jays stay in it for the summer.

Kratz has done a fine job receiving and I wouldn't classify him as a disappointment at all. 

So far Navarro has caught 27 games (on pace for about 85); Thole 15 (on pace for about 48) and Kratz 9 (on pace for about 29).  It's a very good arrangement.  Navarro hasn't hit lefties at all this year, after being good against them over his career.

It's a funny roster, with the 3 catchers and no backup shortstop and 3 platoons and 2 relievers who never play. But evidently it's working really well. Would be nice to have some garbage time soon so Rasmussen and especially Redmond get a chance to shake off rust, and to get an idea how comfortable Tolleson (or Lawrie?) looks at shortstop.

Tolleson has played more games at SS than 2B in the minors so I would assume he's adequate. He's also played a fair amount of 3B and OF so he is a true catch all.

May has been an excellent month, 16-5 wins. So I assume that nobody has played/performed badly including the manager. OK that has to be wrong. So then we probably had fantastic performances from a handful of players, EE hitting HRs, Janssen getting saves. This is probably a fluke, but then so were the blown saves.
The season is a marathon, so we need depth and only a few injuries rather than many.
Luck helps, early Litsch was not bad, T Filer way back when.
Basically I will be on the edge of my seat all season.

The only other roster move i'd like to see experimented with is Goedert replacing Kratz as the utility/lind platoon bat off the bench.

And actually i wouldn't mind seeing Thole getting more starts in general to see if he can keep up a good performance in a bigger role. He's got the milb track record to be a good hitter, and he's just now entering prime catcher years. And he's got a better career line v, RHP than Navarro anyways.

Really, i'm not so sure a Thole/Kratz platoon wouldn't be our best option anyways. Navarro seems to be the least effectuve defensively, at least, and his bat is not a lock....though he does seem to have consistentky good at bats and come up with key hits as a result.

Uglyone, Goedert is not on the 40 man roster. When you take off the 2 on the 60 day DL you get 39, but you probably knew that. So nobody would be lost. I am OK with losing J Diaz, K Wilson and maybe M Kawasaki, possibly D Mastroianni. However I lump Gose, Pillar & Mastroianni as being reasonable 4th OFs. But Gose has the best defense.
The Buffalo/Toronto shuttle has to used a lot this year IMO and now we have the spare parts.

On the list of things I was wrong about, "Steve Tolleson" occupies the most recent slot.  I thought that he couldn't hit lefties or righties well enough and that he wouldn't be very good defensively.  Wrong.  He has hit lefties well,and played perfectly acceptable defence.

It would be nice to have Ryan Goins on the roster, at some point.  This would allow for optimum defense late in games and to allow Reyes to get the occasional day off. 

Actually i didn't know that. Thanks. But really - 40 man issues don't seem a big issue to me. There's always a couple of guys easily dropped, imo.

The jays just added melky mesa from kc, btw. Another righty cf with some pop. Still only 27. Probably a safe bet that at least one of pillar/gose is staying with the big club going forward. One thing to note is thhat though he's a righty, he has reverse splits in the minors, so he's not really a platoon option with rasmus,

Oh and we brought P.J. Walters back, too.

Melky Mesa

This is just a cheap ploy by Mike Moffat to get attention for his MM club!

The Jays have only 39 players on their 40-man roster because Esmil Rogers was dropped from the roster and was replaced by Liam Hendriks who was already on the 40-man roster.  So for the past four days, the Jays have had an available spot on the 40-man roster -- and Anthopoulos did not instantaneously fill it with a waiver claim!  That's very rare for him.  (The new AAA arrivals -- Walters and Mesa -- didn't need to be added to the 40-man roster either.) 

So for today, Tampa Bay vs Toronto...
Preview at B-R....
Not available: McGowan - used 2 days in a row, 3 of past 4 - for a guy who has been hurt a lot it sure looks like they are trying to see just how much abuse that arm can take.
No rest: Janssen, ideally gets today off but with just 14 pitches yesterday would be there if needed
1 day off: Cecil (2 of past 3 days though, 3 of past 5)
2+ days off (ie: available): Delabar, Loup, Rasmussen (5 days off), Redmond (7 days off)

So 4 guys who easily are available (2 desperate for work) with 2 more ready to go if needed.  Good shape for this series.

I was happy to see buchholz and the sox down big early this aft.....then prize FA ervin santana blows up again for 6 runs in 5ip to let them tie it up.

Santana:

1st 3 starts: 7.0ip/gs, 0.86era
Last 6 starts: 6.1ip/gs, 5.89era

Gms 1-3: 7.0ip/gs, 0.86era
Gms 4-6: 6.6ip/gs, 3.20era
Gms 7-9: 5.7ip/gs, 9.00era

Maybe we did get lucky after all.

Pillar DHs tonight with Navarro behind the plate and Gose in CF.