Because I was bored, here's where the Blue Jays batters by position sit in OPS relative to the rest of the ML:

C: 16th (.740), slightly above AL average (.727), second in AL East to Baltimore (.836), barely ahead of Boston (.736).  Small sample surprises from Thole/Kratz average out with Navarro's averageness.  Good average (.323), dragged down by slugging (.383).

1B: 9th (.864), good for 3rd in the AL, just behind AL East leading Tampa (.883), barely ahead of Boston (.862).

2B: 23rd (.629), second last in the AL (to Texas at .503), trying to catch up to Baltimore (.660).  Ugh.

3B: 8th (.780), behind the AL East leading Yankees (.813).  Tied for first in HR (8) and first in RBI (28).

SS: 25th (.542), barely second last in the AL (to Detroit at .541).  Best to throw out the last 30-something games and focus on Reyes staying healthy and becoming the "dynamic" player that "wreaks havoc".

LF: 3rd (.880), good for 2nd in the AL, and 1st in the AL East (Tampa at .762).

CF: 5th (.867), also 2nd in the AL, and 1st in the AL East (Yankees at .855).  First in HR (11, 9 by Rasmus, 1 each for Bautista and Cabrera), first in RBI (24).  A bit surprising, but obviously Colby's hot streak has helped.

RF: 2nd (.886), to Miami (1.002), well in 1st in the AL East (Yankees at .769).  Well done.

DH: 9th in the AL (.768), with league average at .763, and is 4th in the East (to Baltimore's .877, Boston's .821 and Tampa's .790). Somewhat surprising, but Francisco and Edwin have had more time at 3B and 1B during their hot streaks.

PH: 3rd (.991) in above-average 24 AB (due to above-average away games vs. the NL), but still SSS.

P: 15th (.286), which is 5th in the AL with league-leading 14 AB (3 more than Chicago).  Ok then.

The Angels are 8-7 on the road, and have outscored opponents...get this....81-45 away from home. Overall they're 2-8 in one run games so their record is deceptive.

Sorta kinda interesting - the angels are the only team underperforming their run differential worse than the jays.

Jays are only one game over .500 despite their +20 run diff....somehow the angels are a game UNDER .500 despite a +23 run diff.

Buehrle is not only back to form, he's off to arguably his best start. Is this what happens when his catcher is less handsome but better at calling a game? Is there more going on here?

I am definitely opposed to Adam Lind catching Buehrle- beard ugliness notwithstanding.

Statistically, Buehrle has been Merlin the Magician this year.  His W and K rates are actually a little worse than career norms.  His ball in play distribution is not normally associated with great success- 27% line drives, 40% ground balls and 32% fly balls.  He helps himself by fielding very well and holding runners very well.  He has allowed only 1 home run this season; I don't know what the true fly ball distance off him has been, but I do know that the wind has helped him a couple of times.

For his career, Buehrle has an ERA of 3.81, a FIP of 4.12 and an xFIP of 4.20.  He seems to have the ability to significantly beat traditional expectations, but he's not going to post an ERA under 2.  It does look like an ERA significantly under 4 and 200+ innings is a pretty good bet.  Which is sweet.

Always fun to see by position vs ML.  Checking sOPS+ at 2B (OPS+ vs just other 2B) I see...
#1: Phillies 147 Also over 140: Cleveland - no one else over 130
#30: Padres: 32 (!!!) with St Louis and Texas also sub 50.

Jays are at #23 with a sOPS+ of 84, 10 points behind Baltimore and 6 ahead of the Giants.

For funny the Yankees are at #5 while Seattle is at #17.  Cano is hitting 289/345/370 (backups 0 for 6 at 2B), Yankees only seeing a 684 OPS from Roberts but the 3 backups in 26 PA have 6 hits, 6 walks, 2 HR (OPS of 5000, 1000, 808 for the 3 of them).

Utley for Philly is off to a great start (147 OPS+) but is owed $15 mil this year, $10-$15 next (if healthy this year it is $15, if not then $10), and 3 more option years at $15 mil each (500+ PA automatically vests it).  I don't see the Jays going for him without financial assistance from Philly and they won't trade him unless they feel they are out of it (right now last place but 4 games out so still in race).

OMG... just looked at the Padres to see who was at 2B and saw a scary sight... at 1B their regular (with 120 PA) has a 16 OPS+ - Yonder Alonso has 'hit' 157/183/217 so far.  Yikes.  In his career he has a 101 OPS+ so that is just...wow. Especially at age 27.  He is getting worse too, in May he has hit 105/105/158 for an OPS of 263.  Wow.  The Padres team OPS+ is 71 (74 excluding pitchers).  In short, their team as a whole has hit worse than Kawasaki did in his callup this year (77 OPS+)  while their 1B has the same OPS+ as Goins did here (16).  FYI: the Jays OPS+ overall (no pitchers) is 115.

I'll be interested to see what happens when Brett Lawrie is ready to play. Does Juan Francisco merely migrate to the bench with his 1.0+ OPS? I don't expect him to maintain the frantic hitting pace (heck, maybe I do), but it seems hard to take that bat out of the lineup. Gibbons couldn't even bear to hit him behind Lind.

I never understood the Alonso hype. Or the brett wallace hype, for that matter.


Deaner i think we're gonna see lawrie at 2b for a little while at least, francisco is not coming out.


Nice article on stroman just popped up: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marcus-stroman-coming-soon-to-a-first-inning-near-you/

Writer seems convinced that not only is stroman staying up, but he'll be in the rotation by the end of the month.

I agree that Stroman is heading for the rotation quickly.  It is up to Happ and McGowan to make it a tough choice.

Lawrie at 2B and Francisco at 3B is probably going to be the case vs RHP for awhile. Hard to resist it if you are Gibbons. It is a nice problem to have though.

Stroman has thrown 30 innings so far this season.  You probably don't want to aim for more 160 innings total.  That would mean another 10 innings in relief and roughly 20 starts, 120 innings.  June 1 sounds about right, all going well- although you could give some breathing room by having him pitch out of the pen until June 15 or so. 

Think Happ might be traded? I thought that his last start might be showcasing for an NL team but that the Morrow injury might have caused the Jays to rethink....

If Lawrie was back tonight, it would be at 2B. Gibbons isn't taking Francisco out of the lineup while he's rolling. We'll see in a couple of days, though.

The Angels are 16-10 when Hector Santiago doesn't start the game, which he won't in Toronto. Even a split in the series could be tough.

Think Happ might be traded? I thought that his last start might be showcasing for an NL team but that the Morrow injury might have caused the Jays to rethink....

Can't see it (much as I'd like it.). After last year, club wants a lot of SP depth, I suspect.

Kenny Wilson was DFA'd by the Twins today.

The first two batters in our lineup reach base, and the only run scores after two wild pitches/passed balls. How is it they can't take more advantage of early starter difficulties?

Brooksbaseball.net confirms exactly what most everyone has already suspected, Angel Hernandez is the worst.

IBB to Pujols makes no sense there. Bad decision, and bases loaded 2 outs, the guys you don't want to bring in are santos and delabar.

I agree that Gibbons' decision to have Santos walk Pujols loomed large in last night's loss. It looked like the wrong decision when it was made, and that's how it worked out.

Along with everyone else, including I suspect Santos, I understood that Santos was being used in lower leverage situations to permit him to get untracked after Gibbons appointed him closer at the outset and it didn't work. Santos was pitching well. He needed only 9 pitches to record the first 4 outs. He had allowed a double to Aybar, but so what, Aybar was hitting everyone. He'd just got Trout for the second out, and Pujols was 0-3 coming up.

But of course John Gibbons can't sit on the bench and let the players decide the outcome of the game. Instead, Gibbons ordered Santos to walk the right handed 0-3 Pujols to face the lefty Ibanez. Now what made this particular bad Gibbons move outright laughable, was that they then put the shift on Ibanez so that Pujols could easily walk over to second base, which is exactly what he did. Gibbons may as well have come out of the dugout when Pujols came to the plate and said "C'mon Albert, you head out to second base while I manufacture a disaster".

So now Santos had two men in scoring position in a tied game, one that he'd allowed and one that John Gibbons put there. Hands up anyone who has seen a pitcher ordered to intentionally walk someone and then have trouble with the strike zone with the next batter. Three of the first four pitches that Santos threw to Ibanez were balls. Before the intentional walk he was told to issue to Pujols, he hadn't thrown 3 of 4 pitches as balls to anyone. So when Ibanez walked, the bases were now loaded. And out of the dugout of course comes Gibbons, as if it was Santos rather than he who was responsible for the developing mess on the field. He pulls Santos, who had had excellent control until Gibbons ordered him to start walking batters with two out, and brings in Delabar with the bases loaded. Delabar of course, has the highest walk ratio of all the short relievers, and he promptly walked in a run. The run of course, is charged to Santos but it should have been charged to Gibbons.

No one could be surprised to see Aybar with yet another extra-base hit in the ninth, and I also suspect we will see a decline in Brett Cecil's effectiveness, in part due to Gibbons' misuse of him. The most recent example of the latter was Gibbons bringing him into a game to replace Stroman with a 5 run lead earlier in the week, after Stroman had recorded 2 outs. More ridiculous though, was Gibbons use of Cecil in the bullpen meltdown that Gibbons created in the second game of the Minnesota double header. As I noted at the time, Gibbons decision to warm up Cecil in the freezing cold to come in and throw exactly two pitches, so that Gibbons could then commence his Tosca-esque cycle through the bullpen, was the event that immediately led to the meltdown. A few days later, Gibbons bizarrely left in Loup, who had unintentionally walked 3 batters in a row, to give up a bases loaded double and blow the last game of the Cleveland series It is like Gibbons has no feel for the game.

Gibbons of course has his defenders on the internet who would make all the same fantasy baseball moves, but that's not the indicator of quality that other teams at least are looking for.

When AA did his exhaustive manager search a few years back, Gibbons wasn't even considered. When Farrell left for Boston, and took any coaches that the Red Sox wanted and left the others behind, Gibbons was all of a sudden the 'sole source' provider of managerial services. Other than the fact that unlike Farrell no one else wants him, it was hard to see why Gibbons ranked above the potential managers who were deemed worth considering only a short time before. It would have been interesting to see how good the team could have been this year with another manager. I can tell that Gibbons is a nice guy, and it would have been a nice plot line if he was able to return successfully, but John Gibbons is still the guy who was deservedly fired several years back.

I thought at the time and still do that Francona was who we should have been chasing.

That being said, last night was one of the first mistakes I've felt Gibby has made all year.

Watching Melky Cabrera still in the major leagues (and dominating) can really bring out the worst in people, eh?

Let's hope Happ can keep the offense in the game long enough to have a chance, like McGowan did last night.

If the Jays are going to lose, I want it to look like last night's game the majority of the time. Can't win em all.

I think Gibbons has done a good job this season. His main flaw has been having SPs who have been unable to pitch deep into games.

In his career, Santos has been better against LHB than he has against RHB. Pujols is a better (and much younger) hitter than Ibanez, who is hitting .144 this year. In a very tight ballgame, pitching to Ibanez in that situation would seem to be the right move.

Missed this game, but yeah Santos has reverse splits so that r/l argumemt to criticize gibby is silly, and an IBB to albeet fricken pujols in a tight game ia very defensible too.

From casually scanning the boxscore, my professional opinion would be that if any mistakes were made, it would be not trying to push Dusty through another inning on 96 pitches with the bottom of the order coming up(even if he wasn't dominating), and then trying to push the still fragile Santos through a 2nd inning after he had had a nice confidence building first inning.

But that would be nitpicking. Losing a one run game to a team as good as the angels, with our #4/5 guy on the mound, doesn't scream BLAME on anyone i don't think.

Hands up anyone who thinks that Getz at 2B, Tolleson in RF and Bautista in CF against a lefty is a sign of a bench issue.  It wouldn't be difficult to do better than this...

Next pitcher please.

Happ is as excited to see Stroman in the rotation as all of us fans are, seems like. Doing his best to make it happen ASAP.

Why is Happ in the rotation? What did he do to deserve this rotation spot?

I noticed NFH created this thread. Can we blame him for the bad luck? He was a super fan during the Season from Hell and then disappeared until all of the hype came with the Marlins trade. After last year he got back off the bandwagon and somehow popped up this year after the Jays win 5 in a row? Hmmmm. I can't of any of reason why our streak ended, haha.

Trumbo for Skaggs is looking pretty good for the Halos, although Hector Santiago hasn't done very well for them.

Let's see, three straight singles to score a run with no one out is a good start. Next scoring just one run with two on and no one out is a disgrace. Ball one from a pitcher you've not seen doesn't mean swinging at the next effing pitch. Adam Lind needs to be better and these players need to see more pitches every at bat.

little annoyed with the hitters.

didn't see last night's game but today looked like the hot streak from the last week has gone right to their heads - everyone's trying to hit homers on every pitch now, with patience thrown right out the window.

The criticism of Lind was unfounded.  He swung at a pitch he should swing at- on the outside half of the plate but not on the corner and above the knees and hit it up the middle.  It was a sinker and he just hit the top half of the ball for the 1-6-3. 

It sure would be nice to have a comeback equivalent to some of the relief collapses.  This team does have the ability to rally from  3 or 4 runs down, but it hasn't happened very often in the last few years. 

Point one, Adam Lind's timing is not 100%, maybe close to but not there yet. The Starter has given up a run after three straight hits and if he isn't rattled, he's inhuman. Lind's 1st pitch is ball one. He should never, ever swing at the next pitch. Wait for your pitch. The one he swung at doesn't have to go deep, just over the infield, not through.

Point two, having the ability to do something is meaningless if you can't do it often. After all, Brandon Morrow has the ability to be an Ace, truly dominant pitcher, ad nauseam.

Frustrating the past two games but it could always be worse. 

Just for an example of something worse than Romero's wasted contract...
Miguel Cabrera: Just signed an insane deal this past winter, after 31 games has a 112 OPS+, his lowest figure since he was 20. The Tigers new deal added $248 million to the $44 he was owed for this year and next already, plus there are 2 $30 mil vesting options (top 10 MVP the year before to get each of those activated, saving the $8 mil buyout of the first option thus potentially another $52 mil). That contract has the potential of being the worst ever.

Pujols: Off to a good start this year (159 OPS+), for which the Angels are very, very thankful after a 129 OPS+ over his first 2 years there. Still lower than his career 165 (170 in St Louis only) but his massive $240 mil deal is acceptable at that point.

A-Rod: Yankees still owe him $61 mil plus if he gets 6 more HR $6 mil more, 60 more HR adds another $6 mil. 755 and beyond appear out of reach now. Given how things have quieted down I suspect he'll be allowed back next year and MLB will try to ignore him from now on.

Cano: $240 mil, off to a 106 OPS+ start, his worst outside of 2008 (86 OPS+ that year). Too soon to say 'dud' but his 367 Slg vs career 501 has to be very disappointing.

Kershaw: $215 mil, just 2 starts this year as he missed April on the DL...scary when he just signed that deal

Prince Fielder: $214 mil contract, had a great first year in Detroit (in line with his past) but then a 121 last year (OK but not at his pay scale) and a 97 so far this year (yikes) as he hits 30. Even at the reduced rate Texas is paying if he doesn't pick it up he'll be an expensive mess.

Joe Mauer: signed to a $189 mil deal to be a superstar catcher, now at 1B with a 117 OPS+. $92 mil after this year still on the deal, so an expensive OK guy at 1B for a team on a tight budget.

With minor effort I could find others. The point being, expensive players do not always produce.  I love AA finding guys like Francisco for nothing who produce. The challenge is to avoid the AJ Happ, Brandon Morrow types who he likes to sign too soon it seems.  Of course, the flip is signing Bautista and Encarnacion at near perfect times.  If Stroman can move into the rotation and be successful then the Jays are set I think.  Janssen back, figure out how to get Wagner back for the end of the pen, find a 4th outfielder and we're set I think.  Ideally improve at 2B too but not critical.

If Juan Francisco turns out to be another Bautista or Encarnacion, the Jays could have a solid lineup for a few years.

Acquisitions A.A. made before this year were made for the upside each had, despite other possible concerns. I don't think Morrow would have been acquired otherwise. He actually cost the Jays little.

Redmond's performance tonight cemented his role in the 'Pen. I can't see keeping Rogers over him. Delabar might be an issue going forward. Isn't his Fastball at least 5 MPH slower than last year?

Can`t we put each reliever on the DL (one at a time) and give them orders to take a two week vacation? The biggest issue is Morrow/Happ. Neither is pitching well or is even expected to. Neither should be pitching for this team any longer. All they do is strain the Bullpen.

Will Casey Janssen and Neil Wagner be enough if Stroman in the Rotation?

Well, if things go as we expect...
Rotation: Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison, McGowan, Stroman
Pen: Janssen, Cecil, Delabar, Wagner, Loup, Redmond, Santos, Rogers (Rogers the 8th man)
Lineup vs RHP: Navarro/Encarnacion/Lawrie/Francisco/Reyes/Cabrera/Rasmus/Bautista/Lind
Lineup vs LHP: Navarro/Encarnacion/Tolleson/Lawrie/Reyes/Cabrera/Rasmus/Bautista/Kratz
Lineup is CA/1B/2B/3B/SS/LF/CF/RF/DH
Bench: Tolleson or Francisco, Kratz or Lind, Thole, Getz (Kratz to AAA if 8 man pen I suspect, then vs LHP either Lind or Francisco would play at DH)

Not ideal in spots (Lawrie will complain at 2B, Santos & Rogers are expensive for your #7/8 men, McGowan always makes me nervous) but still that could be a really good team in the 2nd half.

For backups for the rotation, Drabek had a great game (7 K, 0 BB, 6 IP) last night and now is at 15-30 BB-SO in 35 2/3 IP...maybe he could put it together.  Hendriks has a 1.01 ERA in 35 2/3 IP 1 BB 29 SO - WOW.  Nolin 2.34 ERA 34 2/3 IP 12-31 BB-SO ratio.  I see at least 2 guys there who could step in in Hendriks & Nolin while Drabek just might...might be putting it together at last which would be very sweet to see.  Romero...the less said the better.  Bobby Korecky has 23 shutout innings so far in the pen, Wagner on the DL (4 1/3 shutout innings), Tepera makes me think of Santos with 19 IP 12 BB 22 SO (hitters might as well not show up, just see if he can hit the strike zone).  Jenkins is there of course as well.  The backups are finally working their way here.  Woohoo!

I like the Trumbo deal. LAA gave up a V good player and added 2 young, unproven SPs that are in their ML rotation. Gutsy IMO because the ML team was weakened.
I suppose the Jays may do something like that one day.

Miguel Cabrera: Just signed an insane deal this past winter, after 31 games has a 112 OPS+, his lowest figure since he was 20. The Tigers new deal added $248 million to the $44 he was owed for this year and next already, plus there are 2 $30 mil vesting options (top 10 MVP the year before to get each of those activated, saving the $8 mil buyout of the first option thus potentially another $52 mil). That contract has the potential of being the worst ever.

The Tigers are 21-11. I'm sure both the GM and owner are happy with all the contracts they've signed.
Look how easily they were able to unload Fielder before his best before date.

Rotation: Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison, McGowan, Stroman
Pen: Janssen, Cecil, Delabar, Wagner, Loup, Redmond, Santos, Rogers (Rogers the 8th man)

Hutchison, McGowan and Stroman are not going to last the year.

2 scenarios: The Jays get one or 2 veterans at the trade deadline and compete for the playoffs.
Or Redmond and Rogers move the rotation and the team finish below .500.

It's annoying that the team seems focused on scenario 2.

Maybe Lawrie can play CF. I wonder if Rasmus is interested in re-signing or content to go to FA.

Perusing Esmil's stats this morning and very impressed. Batted ball profile supports a BABIP much lower than his current .368 and the 19% HR/FB ratio is also unsustainable. This kids going to pull it together and if the jays cared to lay their balls on the table (h/t Pat Roy), they'd put him in Happ's spot right now.

I too wondered about Lawrie in CF in the medium term.  I still think that the best thing is for the club to leave Lawrie at third base, have Francisco available for whenever Lind or Lawrie is out of the lineup and deal with the issue at the deadline. I would like to see Rasmus back here in 2015 and beyond, but I have no idea whether the money will be there.

As for Esmil Rogers, I think that is a mistake to simply translate his rate statistics from the pen and project a performance in the rotation.  He had an ERA of 4.89 in the rotation last year.  I doubt very much that he would do better than that this year.  Todd Redmond (or for that matter Liam Hendriks) is probably a better bet if you wanted to give someone other than Happ some starts before Stroman gets his chance in the rotation. 

Colby & Melky are FAs next year. So things can change.

The mistake is not projecting Rogers from pen to rotation, it's keeping Happ on this team.

Casey Janssen is activated from the D.L. by a desperate G.M. after not enough innings (my opinion on IP) and Chris Getz is DFA. How many relievers are we keeping?

I won't bore everyone again with a breakdown of Rogers' starts last year as I have done in the past, but he was more than fine for a 5th starter. I know Redmond has experienced more success since the middle of last season, but I still don't buy that he would be seeing the same success if the innings he was pitching had some leverage behind them (I recognize Esmil has sucked in similar ones though). I like Rogers' stuff, especially the sink on his fastball.

Well, that's not too surprising, I suppose. With Lawrie moving to 2B against RHP, and Tolleson needed there for LHP, Getz was a bit superfluous. He was about to become purely back-up, and given that he can't play 3B or 2B, he's not an ideal back-up infielder.

For 2015 that is a big, big concern.  2 of our 3 outfielders are free agents and I doubt the Jays will pay $15+ mil each for them.  They way they are playing this year a qualifying offer makes sense, but 3+ years may not and keeping both at that price will not happen.

So who steps in? Pillar & Gose could fill one slot in a platoon situation, but I sure wouldn't want them both playing everyday next year - while it would help the defense most likely the offense would be down drastically.  I recall reading that the outfield market this winter will be weak thus Cabrera/Rasmus could be easily the best 2 out there and get bidding wars.  Maybe Francisco will go to LF in 2015 and we'll have Gose/Pillar share CF... not ideal but if Francisco keeps hitting it could work out.

As to inning limits and injuries, as I mentioned we have a fair number of in-house backups - Hendriks, Nolin both are doing very well in AAA and Drabek just had a great game which is promising.  Mix in Sanchez and McGuire in AA as #9/10 options and Redmond/Rogers as emergency guys in the majors and I think the Jays should be OK for the regular season.  Should they make the playoffs it'll be Dickey/Buehrle and hope for the best with whoever has innings left but I think we'd all be so happy just to make the playoffs it'd be a minor issue vs the 'woohoo' factor.

Marcus Stroman is on approximately a 160.0-ish IP limit this year. If he starts in the Rotation around the All Star Break, he should make 14 starts. At 6.0-7.0 IP per start, that would equal approximately 84.0-98.0 IP. That leaves approximately 62.0-76.0 IP to use until then, or about 37.0-51.0 IP over then next nine weeks (avg. 4.0-5.2 per week).

That's workable but I don't know how practicable. Happ will make one more Start, then the hammer might fall. I just don't think Stroman replaces him. Whoever does needs an option left.

So today's bench consists of a gimpy Brett Lawrie and 2 catchers. OK. Good plan.

"For 2015 that is a big, big concern. 2 of our 3 outfielders are free agents and I doubt the Jays will pay $15+ mil each for them. They way they are playing this year a qualifying offer makes sense, but 3+ years may not and keeping both at that price will not happen."

I dunnno - with only $96m committed for 2015 payroll, and only $26m committed for 2016 payroll, I don't think they'll have much problem re-signing Melky and Colby if they feel they're worth it.

Melky is probably worth it. Colby certainly is not....I don't think team would even risk giving him a QO....

"As for Esmil Rogers, I think that is a mistake to simply translate his rate statistics from the pen and project a performance in the rotation. He had an ERA of 4.89 in the rotation last year. I doubt very much that he would do better than that this year."

even using his starter's totals last year is misleadingly optimistic.

If we remember, he got off to a great surprising hot start when switched to the rotation last year (1.57era in his first 5gms after making the switch), but was useless after that with a 5.66era in his last 17gms and (correlatively only 2 wins in those 17gms).

and his huge ERA is always supported by just as big FIP - anyone looking to his xFIP as hope has to realize that the guy's HR rate (13.3% career, 14.7% as SP) is never going to normalize to league average. He gives up moonshots like nobody's business.

If we look at monthly splits after moving to the rotation last year:

JUN: 6gms, 31.2ip, .231babip, .625oops, 2.27era, 4.18fip
JUL: 5gms, 28.0ip, .376babip, .908oops, 7.07era, 4.41fip
AUG: 5gms, 22.1ip, .338babip, 1.037oops, 7.66era, 7.35fip
SEP: 5gms, 26.2ip, .230babip, .658ops, 3.71era, 4.25fip

2013 As SP: 20gs, 5.3ip/gs, .310babip, .810oops, 4.89era, 4.67fip

Career as SP: 42gs, 5.3ip/gs, .334babip, .849oops, 5.59era, 4.77fip


This guy is not a solution as an SP, at all. He's not even an acceptable temporary solution.

Some team with a home park that seriously depresses HR rates might turn him into a useful piece, though. He'll be a good Oakland Athletic.

"Melky is probably worth it. Colby certainly is not....I don't think team would even risk giving him a QO...."

You think?

Rasmus is a 27yr old above average defensive CF with a .755 career ops even though he started at a very young age.

In 2 of his first 5 seasons, by age 26, he has arguably been a top-5 CF in baseball, including last year.

Even with his slow start this year, he currently sits 10th in MLB in CF OPS (.795), and #1 in MLB CF OPS so far in May (1.236).


Melky is a 29yr old below average defensively LFer with a career .752ops, 1 great year in 2012, 1 good year in 2011, and is currently having probably a 2nd great year in 2014.

I've got nothing against Navarro per se, but so far he's been completely unable to throw out baserunners, ranks amongst the worst pitch framers, and is rocking a ~.650ish ops.

Wouldn't mind seeing Thole get some more playing time, to be honest. Kratz too.

the amount of high balls out of the strike zone this team has swung at the past two days is depressing.

Stroman's outing has me thinking of Crash Davis' final words of advice to Nuke LaLoosh.

"...these Big League hitters are gonna light you up like a pinball machine for awhile -- don't worry about it. Be cocky and arrogant even when you're getting beat. That's the secret."

The Jays are still second worst in all of baseball in walks allowed. They are in no imminent danger of relinquishing this position.

Conger was on the short list of catchers I was hoping the Jays would pursue this off-season. Conger + Kendrick was the combo I was hoping AA could get, although that was probably never really realistic. It seems that Trumbo was the player the Angels decided to move for pitching in the end. So far that decision has worked out well for them.

Getting anything for Trumbo was always a good move.

Trumbo is a 28yr old DH with a career .768ops and .297obp, a career .744ops and .294obp vs. RHP.

I don't get why anyone would trade anything of value for him.

It seems everywhere (TV, Interwebby, Podcasts) I go I hear someone talking about the 2nd year for Relievers who were worked heavily the previous year. And our Relief Corp is exactly that. Poor second year results usually occur. So far so good for accuracy. Of course, of the only Relievers that weren't overused last year, some weren't that good.

Casey Janssen, Neil Wagner, Chad Jenkins and Todd Redmond all appear to be "non-abused" last year and just might be our best relievers this year. And that's scary.

So today's bench consists of a gimpy Brett Lawrie and 2 catchers. OK. Good plan.

Exactly what I thought.  Baffling.

Can anyone please explain what Brett Cecil is doing out on the mound in the 9th inning down by 4 runs?  It's not as though he is underworked.

Santos to D.L.? Some sort of forearm thingy. Interesting to see who comes up. Considering the Bench sucks, and Lawrie should go on the D.L., they need something better than just two catchers.

Neil Wagner is still on the DL, isn't he?  I guess that it will be Bobby Korecky.

"How long have you had this particular problem with the bullpen, Alex?  Did you work too hard as a child?  Were you always tired and wanting someone else to work until the end of the day? Don't worry, I see this all the time.  Repeat after me.  Nine innings, five days, twelve pitchers, enough.  Again.  One more time.  Do you feel better now?"

"... I guess that it will be Bobby Korecky...."

I thought you didn't like the 8-man bullpen?  There's some speculation that it might actually be Pillar or Goins who gets promoted -- which might help to explain why Getz was DFA'd today to make room for Janssen. 

What the Jays need more than the right number of relievers on the roster is a stronger rotation (i.e., one that can pitch deep into games, instead of typically maxing out at 3-6 innings). By contrast, Santana has gone 6-8 innings in every one of his starts this year. Having arms like that would remedy a lot of the bullpen's struggles.

Treat the cause, not the symptoms.

Neil Wagner pitched an inning for Buffalo today....

Buehrle's on pace for about 220 innings, Dickey about 190 and Hutchison about 180.  That is par for the course.  As a whole, the organization is in the lower half of IP/S but basically comparable to the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, Nationals...

Ervin Santana is off to a ridiculous start, and one that could not reasonably have been expected.  The excellent Brave defence probably is helping.  It would have been nice to have Scott Kazmir though.  A number of us did advocate for him, and the cost was not high. 

I would argue that Buehrle's start (219 ERA+) is just as ridiculous as Santana's.

Keith Law specifically said in ST that Santana would give the Jays a much-needed infusion of both quality and innings. As others have since noted, Santana seems to have made some significant adjustments to his game in 2013-14.

Diaz and Jenkins recalled. I assume Kratz will be sent down but that hasn't been announced yet.

When it looked like Reyes might have injured himself scoring in the first inning yesterday the question was who would play short if he was injured? The best candidate I could come up with was Sergio Santos and now he has gone on the DL. Lawrie was reportedly injured and Thole and Kratz were not shortstop candidates. I think Tolleson could play there in a pinch but who would play second?

I think that momentary nightmare explains why Diaz was recalled. If you have a short bench you need someone who can cover a lot of positions, Diaz can do that, at least defensively.

Santana so far has been nothing like what he was in 2013.  His K rate is way up; his contact rate is way, way down. He's done all that while throwing quite a few more strikes than in 2013.

Diaz can do that, at least defensively.

Defensively, indeed. He's had a tough go with the bat this season. 6 for 34 in the majors. 0 for 24 in the minors.

I think Rogers was looking at:
Last Place in 2012 @ $83,277,200.00;
Last Place in 2013 @ $119,277,800.00;
With salaries increasing to $137,177,700.00 said "no more".
As a Business, I can see them doing that. As a Mega-Corp, that number is insignificant and should not matter. As a Team Owner, that's miscommunication, not understanding needs.

Alex could still do trades because dollars for dollars are available, just a long as he doesn't take on massive amounts of money. Trading Minor League assets can be possible, but massively expensive as the Jays have very few MLB-Ready/near-Ready prospects to trade.

The Bullpen is a disappointment, unlikely to improve. It's too early to make a judgement on Janssen, but he should be OK. Redmond seems to do more than required, more often than not, so he's OK. For Stroman, this is a learning experience. He needs to learn how to pitch up here, so he's OK. Loup, Delabar and Cecil were over-used last year and it's showing up this year. Delabar has lost at least 5 MPH on his fastball, and no one knows why. I think it's time we found out why, even if he`s DL`ed. Rogers is hot or cold, or good or bad, so there might be a problem, he`s an issue. The only thing to do is work Loup, Cecil and Delabar less, no more than two innings per week. Call up two effective reliever to be the horses for Gibbons.

Anyone on the Starting Staff not pitching consistently 6.0 or more innings needs to be replaced by someone (anyone) who can. Starters don`t have to be great, they just have to be good enough. Relievers don`t have to be great, just good enough. The Defense will be good to great, because that`s who they are. The Offense is good and will win a lot of games if the Pitching keeps them in the game.

It looks as if the Braves made a good decision to spend more on starting pitching than they had originally wanted to. Good for them for recognizing that they needed to go outside the organization for help.

The only thing to do is work Loup, Cecil and Delabar less, no more than two innings per week.

So about 50 innings each for the entire season?

Anyone on the Starting Staff not pitching consistently 6.0 or more innings needs to be replaced by someone (anyone) who can.

So only Buehrle gets to stay in the rotation?

Diaz at short, Tolleson at second, EE DHing and Lind at first base tonight against a LHP.  I guess Kratz is being sent out, and we're back to an 8 man pen.  Oh joy.

Good thing there's a hockey game on to watch instead.

Kratz for Diaz and Santos for Jenkins.

It looks like they take advantage of Santos going to the DL to recall Jenkins early, but without Santos, they should be no need for 8 pitchers in the pen and now there's no platoon mate for Lind.

Pretty good baseball game so far, if you're a Jays fan.

So Chuck, as an expert GM, what do you suggest?

Yeah, sure. On a pace for 13 strike outs is an amazing game offensively.

Make that 18.

Dickey has reached 6.0 or more IP in 6 of his 8 Starts, with 4 straight of that length. Hutchison has reached 6.0 or more IP in 4 of his 8 Starts, going 5.1 in each of two others. Buehrle has reached 6.0 or more IP in 8 of his Starts, going 5.1 in each of two others.

McGowan has reached 6.0 IP in just 3 of his 7 Starts, going just 5.0 in one other. Does he need to be replaced? Morrow reached 6.0 IP just once in his 6 Starts. I don't think we need him back. Happ will never reach 6.0 IP consistently, nor will Redmond or Rogers.

There is a need, just who fills it?

Cecil 0-3, 18 G, 4.86, 16.2 IP, .207 avg, 1.56 whip;
Delabar 2-0, 17 G, 3.00, 15.0 IP, .173 avg, 1.13 whip;
Loup 1-1, 16 G, 4.15, 17.1 IP, .167 avg, 1.15 whip;
Rogers 0-0, 14 G, 6.38, 18.1 IP, .312 avg, 1.64 whip;
Santos 0-2, 14 G, 9.00, 12.0 IP, .277 avg, 2.00 whip;
Redmond 0-3, 11 G, 2.66, 23.2 IP, .295 avg, 1.35 whip;
Other stats don't help when Relief struggles. Games and inning pitched do. Gibbons needs to make better Reliever use, or get better Relievers. Just who can we get?

Buehrle 6.6ip/gs, 3.24fip - (2013: 6.2ip/gs, 4.10fip)
Hutch 5.7ip/gs, 3.13fip --- (2013: ---)
Dickey 6.0ip/gs, 3.94fip -- (2013: 6.6ip/gs, 4.58fip)

Janssen ----------------- (2013: 52.7ip, 2.74fip)
Cecil 16.7ip, 2.42fip --- (2013: 60.7ip, 2.88fip)
Delabar 16.0ip, 3.84fip - (2013: 58.7ip, 2.72fip)
Loup 17.3ip, 3.54fip ---- (2013: 69.3ip, 3.32fip)
Wagner 8.7ip, 3.08fip --- (2013: 36.0ip, 4.13fip)
Redmond 23.7ip, 3.08fip - (2013: 77.0ip, 4.40fip)


none of these guys are an issue, and that's 3 SP and 6 RP.


Problems:

Morrow 4.6ip/gs, 4.00fip -- (2013: 5.4ip/gs, 5.42fip)
McGowan 5.0ip/gs, 4.85fip - (2013: ----)
Happ 3.8ip/gs, 7.04fip ---- (2013: 5.2ip/gs, 4.31fip)

Santos 12.0ip, 5.75fip ---- (2013: 25.7ip, 1.84fip)
Rogers 18.3ip, 5.70fip ---- (2013: 137.7ip, 4.73fip)

That 4th outfielder would have come in handy now.

Casey's struggling with command but he's having no problem reaching 91 on the gun, which is good news.

I don't have a problem with most of the Starters (Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison) because they know how to pitch. I don't know enough to have a fair opinion about McGowan. I know Morrow, Happ, and others aren't good enough to Start on this team. I have a problem with them.

I don't know enough about Stroman or Janssen to comment. I do know the Relief has been THE BIGGEST PROBLEM this team has. Starter have a 14-11 record while Relief has a 4-9 record.

I don't complain if the entire Relief effort results in 1 run, or if Starters give up 3. After that point I have a problem.

I wouldn't worry too much about Jenssen. He's not a 2 pitch pitcher.

One day Janssen's arm will fall right off while pitching and he'll simply pick up the ball with his left hand, toe the rubber and look in for the sign.

What a difference a year makes. Buehrle is now 7-1, 2.04. Outstanding work.

"Casey's struggling with command but he's having no problem reaching 91 on the gun, which is good news."

Or bad news for someone who has never relied on velocity. He didn't look ready tonight, but got the results everybody was hoping for.

nah, it's great news.

he was sitting 86-87 in spring and his previous rehab attempts, which was a legit source of concern.

tonight he struggled a bit with command walking the first guy and going up 3-0 on the 2nd guy, but like typical Janssen, nobody could get a decent hack at his stuff and he got three weak contact outs to get out of it.

Latest post for a new series is late-ish again.
Read that Kevin Pillar is getting called up, maybe Rasmus to DL or releasing Happ or Rogers, or doing the stupid thing of sending Jenkins down.

Jon Diaz back to Buffalo.

Pillar up, Diaz down per Davidi.

Not surprised Diaz would be the one to go down. Love his glove but he was taking some just horrible swings at pitches last night. I would've preferred Gose up (a more natural centerfielder with plus speed) but it will be interesting to see if Pillar has improved upon his showing from last season.

Please though, don't let this be a situation of calling up a guy, letting him mostly sit around for a week and then sending him back down. That's just how you handle a hitter in a hot streak.

They still do need players on the bench who can play shortstop and who can play centerfield, rather than an 8th man in the pen.  Steve Tolleson is not a shortstop and not a centerfielder.

Presumably,  Pillar is the centerfield, but yes, they don't have much of a plan if Reyes needs to be pulled in the first.

But what if tonight's game goes 26 innings? The team clearly has a plan for that situation.

"....But what if tonight's game goes 26 innings? The team clearly has a plan for that situation...."

However, the team has abysmally failed to prepare for a scenario in which the CF and SS and 2B are all simultaneously injured in the first inning. 

With Rasmus unavailable, Tolleson is backing up everybody except the catcher. 
Maybe Navarro replaces Lind if his back acts up. Maybe they use a pitcher.