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The Toronto Blue Jays (13-15) start a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (10-8) at PNC Park this weekend. The Jays are three games back in the loss column of the Yankees and Orioles in the AL East while the Bucs are tied with the Cubs for the NL Central basement and are 9.5 games back of the surprising Milwaukee Brewers.



Game Times & Probable Starters...

  • Friday @ 7:05 pm ET - RHP Brandon Morrow (1-2, 6.04) vs. RHP Gerrit Cole (2-2, 3.18).
  • Saturday @ 7:05 pm ET - RHP R.A. Dickey (2-3, 5.09) vs. LHP Francisco Liriano (0-3, 3.97).
  • Sunday @ 1:35 pm ET - RHP Dustin McGowan (1-1, 587) vs. RHP Edinson Volquez (1-2, 3.21).

The Jays have called up catcher Erik Kratz from Buffalo and have sent down righty Chad Jenkins back to Triple-A. Steve Tolleson, called up from the Bisons yesterday is wearing #18, Jim Clancy's old number, or Mike McCoy's old digits for you youngsters in the audience.
Series Thread - Jays @ Pittsburgh | 162 comments | Create New Account
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Paul D - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#285637) #
Francisco is playing 3b and Lawrie's playing 2b tonight.
Ron - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#285641) #
Lawrie didn't sound happy about playing 2B tonight based on his talk with Davidi. Is Juan Francisco this good of a baseball player to justify this type of move?

I do recall the Jays did something similar when they wanted to get Shea Hillenbrand's bat in the lineup so they moved Troy Glaus to SS.
Mike Green - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#285642) #
Poor idea on the part of management.  They've been through this one enough times to know better.  What I like least about it is the effect on Lawrie.  He needs focus not distraction. 
scottt - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#285644) #
This is the National League. Keep Francisco on the bench and use him to pinch hit for the pitcher if you fall behind.

Truly pathetic.

raptorsaddict - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#285645) #
Exactly.

I know armchair psychology is not an exact science, but you don't need to be Freud to deduce that Brett Lawrie doesn't seem like the type of guy you want to be doing any more thinking than is absolutely needed. There is plenty enough going on in there already, and I would wager 99% of it involves working out or baseball. Giving him this to spend his time obsessing over is just a bad idea, plain and simple.

Moreover, even if the Jays believe with absolute certainty that Juan Francisco is the second coming of David Ortiz, he'll still be there in 3 days. He's not going to melt away. So, use him as a pinch hitter, then work out getting rid of Adam Lind's salary and bad back if you think Francisco can give you somewhere between 80%-?% of what Lind can for a fraction of the cost. Don't drag Lawrie's complicated personality into the mix. That's not favoritism either, that's just good people management.

And, that comment doesn't even touch on the obvious baseball shortcomings of weakening yourself so much defensively.

Eephus - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#285646) #
Francisco is playing 3b and Lawrie's playing 2b tonight.

Those who do not learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them...


Four Seamer - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#285647) #
I guess Gibby has as much confidence in Brandon Morrow featuring in a pitcher's duel as I do.
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#285648) #
Heh, knew they were gonna try this setup at some point.

And it might just work.

Or not.
CeeBee - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#285649) #
I'll save my accolades or condemnations of Lawrie playing second till I can base it on hindsight, not foresight as my predicting skills suck.... BTW, pretty nice play by the kid to end the Ist inning.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#285650) #
Poor idea on the part of management. They've been through this one enough times to know better.

Truly pathetic.


Whoa. It's not as bad as all that. First of all, I don't think we've seen enough of Lawrie at 2B to conclude this can't work. Now in that there's criticism -- where we should have seen more of this is in Spring Training. But we definitely need to see more of this. If he can handle the position, that gives the team a lot of flexibility, be it game-to-game or in how the roster is constructed. (See Zobrist, Ben.) The Blue Jays have been too rigid for my liking in their positioning. Not only Lawrie but Bautista -- there's no reason to think he needs to be a RF only.
scottt - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#285651) #
Lawrie hasn't hit enough to be put at a position where he does not excel defensively.

Francisco at 3B, Lawrie on the bench would have been OK in my book. You substitute Lawrie in the second half of the game.

TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#285652) #
Lawrie hasn't hit enough to be put at a position where he does not excel defensively.

You don’t normally expect your 3b to hit as well as your 2b, so it depends how much of a defensive drop-off there is (if any) when he moves from 3b to 2b. It also depends who else is available to play 3b.

I think Morrow pitched a lot better than the box score indicates. Threw lots of strikes (68/102 pitches) and had lots of 0-2 or 1-2 counts. Just had trouble putting hitters away.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#285653) #
And I should also say, it depends who else besides Lawrie is available to play 2B.
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#285654) #
Well, both lawrie and francisco did the job defensively tonigh. Both made a number of tough plays, and looked good doing it. Lawrie in particular showed some pretty crazy range to both sides.

And the lineup looked much deeper for it.


On the other hand, it seems like Brandon Morrow is just not a very good pitcher.
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#285655) #
"Lawrie hasn't hit enough to be put at a position where he does not excel defensively"


Lawrie was beyond awful for the first couple of weeks (12gms, .091avg, .149obp, .159slg, .308ops), but has been legit excellent since then (15gms, .288avg, .338obp, .559slg, .898ops), and is on a 4-gm multi-hit streak coming into tonight....and just made it 5 multi-hit games in a row with that single.

He is hitting well enough for any position, and definitely should not be sitting,
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#285656) #
Too many people make pronouncing judgements on small samples. Just enjoy the moment more and grump less.
Ryan Day - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#285657) #
I'm exhausted and bored by the Brandon Morrow show. I know he's better than this, but I also know he'll only be better for a few weeks before ending up on the DL.

Coincidentally, Sean Nolin had a nice start in Buffalo tonight.
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#285658) #
Speaking of small sampled...we give AA a ton of grief for losing the likes of walden and smith and dyson.....we might want to give him some serious props on picking up one Juan Francisco for free.

He won't keep up this babip-fuelled elite performance, but he sure does look like an mlb hitter.

Francisco: 50pa, .391babip, .279avg, .380obp, .558slg, .938ops, .409woba, 159wrc+

He's been a godsend since the lind injury, that's for sure.


And hey, how old was David Ortiz when boston picked him up off the scrapheap again?

uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#285659) #
"I'm exhausted and bored by the Brandon Morrow show"

the Santos'n'Delabar Happy Hour isn't much easier to watch.

Give me more pitchers, fewer throwers, please.


Four Seamer - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#285660) #
Maybe they should move Santos back to shortstop.
scottt - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#285661) #
To me it's still like giving LInd an AB againt a lefty. You might get away with it, or not.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#285662) #
Tweet from John Lott: Gibbons ready to “re-arrange some things” in bullpen, strongly hints he needs McGowan there, calls Janssen/McGowan “two missing pieces."
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#285663) #
Some thoughts on the John Lott tweet:

Would Gibbons have had the same reaction had Santos closed things out? Because the loss really had nothing to do with McGowan not being in the bullpen. The set-up guys got through the 6th, 7th, & 8th. It was the closer that blew it.

Now it’s true that the set-up guys are getting overworked in a way that could have repercussions as the season goes on. Having McGowan in the pen tonight could have spared Cecil a second inning of work. But before ending the McGowan-as-starter experiment prematurely, Gibbons needs to try using Redmond in some higher leverage situations. Redmond could’ve pitched an inning tonight, even two if he looked good after one. He’s pitched fine this year, as well as anyone, and I think Gibbons has been far too cautious about using him.

Finally, this is looking more and more like a really odd time to give Happ a start. The purported reason is to give the starters some extra rest but that’s coming at the expense of an overworked bullpen. They’re suddenly down to six relievers and they’re going to start McGowan and Happ on back-to-back days. Getting more than 5 IP from either of them is hardly guaranteed. Maybe another pitcher gets called up in the meantime. I think Wagner’s eligible to come back on Monday (the day Happ starts).
Four Seamer - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#285664) #
Maybe his plan is to move one of Cecil or McGowan into the closer role until Janssen returns, and bury Santos.
Eephus - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#285665) #
Didn't catch the game (was too busy watching the local basketball team get beaten up, sorry boys) but by the looks of things, man oh man this team needs Casey Janssen back. I don't know what weird intangible thing it is, if it is anything at all, but having that dominant automatic 9th inning guy just seems to let everyone else fall into a comfortable productive place. Without that, as we've witnessed so far, chaos ensues.

At this point I'd almost wanna see if Todd Redmond could close games. Use him as a two inning guy if you have to, he could probably do that every other game. 
grjas - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#285666) #
Just enjoy the moment and grump less.

This team is 8 and 15 when Buehrle isn't pitching...less than a 350 record. What moments are we supposed to enjoy?
BlueJayWay - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#285667) #
Well that was fun. When is Janssen coming back?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#285668) #
Santos had an issue with falling in love with his slider to the determent of his fastball. For anyone who watched the game, was that his problem?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#285669) #
Sorry, detriment not determent, spelling snag.
bpoz - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#285670) #
grjas, I agree with your analysis. Buehrle has carried this team. Hutch has done quite well for a rookie. He is a rookie, is he not?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#285671) #
Drew pitched too many innings in 2012. About sometime In June/July, I think he gets his 1st year of service in.
Mike Green - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#285672) #
I've missed a week, and maybe I am jet-lagged, but can somebody please explain why Steve Tolleson is here.

I was in Copenhagen and learned one thing baseball-related- the word for "fish" in Danish is Fisk.  The all-fish Hall of Names team not only has been bolstered by Mike Trout in the last few years but also has a Hall of Fame catcher (I have forgotten whether Mick allowed Dickie Thon- if so, the argument for Carlton Fisk is very strong). 
92-93 - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#285674) #
"Speaking of small sampled...we give AA a ton of grief for losing the likes of walden and smith and dyson.....we might want to give him some serious props on picking up one Juan Francisco for free"

One has absolutely nothing to do with the other. Nobody would have cared if the team lost Marcus Walden by picking up Juan Francisco.
92-93 - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#285675) #
They may not have parted with much value to land Morrow, Santos, and Happ, but this team has spent quite a bit of money and resources on 3 guys from whom they've received very little in return. The opportunity cost of having these 3 players around has been very large.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#285676) #
Morrow loaded the bases in the 2nd inning, with no one out. Besides making too many pitches and giving up a run, what happened? Was he squeezed by the Umpire, Defense under-achieving, Opponents just lucky, or Morrow was bad?
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#285677) #
"This team is 8 and 15 when Buehrle isn't pitching...less than a 350 record. What moments are we supposed to enjoy?"

Not the spin i would go with. Seems misleading.

The starters are 10-9 (.526), with no SP more than 1gm under .500.

The bullpen is 3-7 (.300), and has blown 5 of 12 save opportunities (57sv%).

For comparison last year the SP were 46-57 (.446), the BP was 28-31 (.475) and saved 39 of 58 opportunities (68%).

uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#285678) #
"Santos had an issue with falling in love with his slider to the determent of his fastball. For anyone who watched the game, was that his problem?"


Meatball fastballs right down the pipe wete his problem.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#285679) #
"Morrow loaded the bases in the 2nd inning, with no one out. Besides making too many pitches and giving up a run, what happened? Was he squeezed by the Umpire, Defense under-achieving, Opponents just lucky, or Morrow was bad?"

His usual combo of deep counts + hard hit singles + bloopers.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#285680) #
I thought a key play occurred in the top of the first. The Jays were up 1-0 with runners at second and third with two out. They were running Cole's pitch count up early (he was up to about 25 pitches), but Lawrie swung away at a 3-0 pitch and grounded out to first.

They had Cole on the ropes but couldn't deliver the big hit or apply more pressure by working him for more walks/hits. If Lawrie is going to swing 3-0, you would hope that he would at least be able to drive the ball.

Of course, the Jays did eventually put themselves in a position to win, but they had a chance early on to increase their odds of winning the game.
Gerry - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#285682) #
The Dunedin Blue Jays have announced that Adam Lind will start a rehab assignment with them tomorrow.
JB21 - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#285683) #
You didn't think the two run bomb to tie or the walk off bombs were key plays?

Santos' problem isn't that he's fallen in love with his Slider, he's fallen in love with his Slider because he can't command his fastball. He's aiming it terribly and seems to either miss by a foot or put it on a plater down the pipe. He throws hard but his FB is straight as an arrow so unless he can throw it where he needs it he's going to struggle. His slider is nasty, but it's tough to be used effective on its own.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#285684) #
I thought lawrie got good wood on that 3-0 pitch the other way. Unluckily right at the 1B.

If the runners had been at 1st and 3rd instead of 2nd and third, that would have been a solid oppo single with the 1b holding the runner on.

Actually its pretty encouraging in general that not only is lawrie red hot at the plate, but even his outs are well hit balls lately.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#285685) #
Good to know that Lawrie got good wood on that pitch (I was going off of gameday/radio).

Still, when a RHB hits a grounder to first with runners on second and third and is ahead 3-0, maybe he should have been looking for a different pitch? At 3-0, the batter should be looking to drive his pitch, not decide beforehand to swing and then make the best of a pitch that wouldn't have been his first choice.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#285687) #
On April 15th, Toronto was in sole possession of First Place (8-6), with a 9-3 win over Minnesota. That was the turning point of the season. Brandon Morrow goes only 3.2 IP. The Bullpen, by the end of game, would have pitched 45.0 inning over just 14 games. Over the next two games, same day (both losses), in bitter cold the bullpen pitches another 7.2 innings.

Toronto would win the next two and on the 19th of April, with a 10-8 record, Toronto was tied for First Place. The Relief pitches another 5.2 innings. From that point on, Toronto is 3-8 and still in the thick of the race.

I believe it was possible to win up to another 10 games, since Season start. Relief has lost 7 games. Starters have lost just 9 while winning 10. We need a Starter who regularly pitches past the 7th. We need Janssen and Wagner back and we need Gibbons not to pitch Cecil, Delabar and Santos in the same game so often.

The Offense isn't great but it's been good enough. Defense isn't great, but it's been better than just good enough. Starters are turning it around for the most part. My biggest concern is the Bullpen as they just aren't good enough.
PeterG - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#285688) #
Sierra claimed by White Sox...
Ryan Day - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#285689) #
... and Morrow on the DL with an acute case of Terrible Pitching.
Gerry - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#285690) #
And a right index finger strain. Jenkins back up. So do we have a 5 or 6 man rotation now?
ayjackson - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#285691) #
Apparently we have a five man rotation. Santos out as closer. Closer-by-committee of Cecil-Delabar-Loup. Santos will work inning 6-8. Cecil not available tonight.
PeterG - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#285692) #
I mentioned this in another thread, but many may have missed it. How about giving Hendriks a shot if we need another starter. He was great in ST and has carried that over to a sub 1 ERA with Buffalo so far......and he is on the 40 man.
ayjackson - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#285693) #
I think at this point in the season, you take whoever give you the best chance to win. Both have great numbers, it'd be up to the coaches/scouts to say who would perform better immediately against MLB hitters.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#285694) #
So do we have a 5 or 6 man rotation now?

I'm guessing (a) Stroman takes Morrow's next start and (b) if there's any way to interpret Happ's start as better than McGowan's next start, Happ gets to stay in the rotation and Gibbons gets his wish of sending McGowan to the bullpen.

PeterG, you could be right re. Hendriks. But looking at the numbers Uglyone posted in the minor league thread, it looks to me like Stroman has pitched better -- a 1.58 FIP for Stroman, 2.68 for Hendriks. If Stroman struggles, or if there's another injury, I'd guess Hendriks is next in line.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#285695) #
Well, OK… so much for waiting till after their starts. Gibbons has apparently just announced that Happ's going to stay in the rotation. I imagine that means McGowan goes immediately to the bullpen, in which case Stroman will probably be starting in Philadelphia on Monday.
ayjackson - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#285697) #
McGowan is starting tomorrow. Stroman stays in Buffalo until Happ is dealt to Oakland.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#285698) #
Oakland, huh? You're right, though… I got ahead of myself with the Stroman talk. McGowan starts as scheduled on Sunday. As for Happ, here's a guy Gibbons wouldn't go to (rightly, I think) in anything resembling a close game, and now they've decided he's worthy of a regular spot in the rotation.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#285699) #
I always did want cecil as the replacement closer, not santos, with loup stepping into cecil's lh setup role.

I always saw the depth chart like this:

Janssen
Cecil
Santos
Loup
Delabar

But i think gibby always saw it as this:

Santos
janssen
Delabar
Cecil
Loup


And at this point i'm not sure i mind happ getting a shot. Last year he gave us 5.2ip/gs, 4.56era, 4.31fip....which is passable for the bottom of the rotation....and better than what morrow/mcgowan have done so far.

Actually, that's better than morrow and mcgowan have done for much longer than just this year.

Though to be honest, aren't we all just waiting until stroman/nolin/sanchez take the 4/5 slots and morrow/happ are both dealt?
ayjackson - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#285700) #
Maybe when Morrow gets healthy we can deal him to LAD for a hard-throwing, surfer-dude reliever.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#285701) #
And at this point i'm not sure i mind Happ getting a shot. Last year he gave us 5.2ip/gs, 4.56era, 4.31fip

The problem is he's looked awful this year, both in the spring and in the regular season. I'm with you, though -- one start against a lefty-heavy, and not very good, Phillies team is fine with me. With Buehrle in there as well, that gives us two left-handed starters in the four-game series. That's fine. Where I'm uncomfortable is when they say that he's going to be a regular member of the rotation, though I'm not too uncomfortable on account of that being just talk at this point. If he looks awful on Monday, he's probably done for.
PeterG - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#285702) #
the reason I would try Hendriks before Stroman is simply because I think Stroman could benefit from some more time in Buffalo.....and Hendriks might be a surprise...doesn't hurt to have a look.
jerjapan - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#285703) #
can somebody please explain why Steve Tolleson is here.

Versatility is what everyone seems to be talking about.  He can play OF and multiple IF positions, which matters a lot given the short bench.  I have no idea if he's any good at those positions, but we seem to be wandering away from the defense first approach anyway ...

As for Hendricks, he's been hammered three straight years after getting a shot with Minnie, who cut bait on him despite having a desperate need for ML pitching.  He looks like a AAAA guy with a great small sample size start to his year. 
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#285704) #
… we might want to give him some serious props on picking up one Juan Francisco for free.

He won't keep up this babip-fuelled elite performance, but he sure does look like an mlb hitter.

Francisco: 50pa, .391babip, .279avg, .380obp, .558slg, .938ops, .409woba, 159wrc+


That BABIP along with a 34% K-rate should temper our enthusiasm. On the other hand, looking at his FanGraphs page, Francisco has made a marked improvement this year in his O-swing % (which measures how often a batter swings at pitches outside the strike zone), from a career average of 39% to 29% this year. That's a really positive indicator, and it's also a statistic that tends to stabilize early in the season, which gives some assurance that it's not a small sample size issue. As for pitches in the zone, his swing rate is at 73%, which is his career average. The problem seems to be that he's missing a lot of those pitches -- a 68% contact rate on swings on pitches in the zone versus an 82% career rate (88% is average).
jerjapan - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#285705) #
They may not have parted with much value to land Morrow, Santos, and Happ, but this team has spent quite a bit of money and resources on 3 guys from whom they've received very little in return. The opportunity cost of having these 3 players around has been very large.

You could easily make the case for Happ being a bad acquisition, but I think most people would call the Morrow and Santos trades clear wins for the Jays, with the typical caveat that pitchers get hurt.  It's also early ... I expect one or both of them to right the ships and contribute this year, and both have reasonable contracts. 
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#285706) #
Time for Gibbons to give Lawrie the red light in 3-0 counts. Especially with no one on base -- they need baserunners.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#285707) #
Joey Bats has reached base in every single game this season so far.

That is kind of awesome.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#285708) #
Lawrie has really been hammering the ball lately. No cheapies. Just lasers all over the field.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#285709) #
"That BABIP along with a 34% K-rate should temper our enthusiasm."

The high K-rates don't really scare me anymore. Seems like baseball is changing that way.

The success last year of guys like C.Davis, M.Napoli, C.Rasmus, M.Stanton, C.Carter, A.Dunn, J.Saltalamacchia, B.Moss, C.Gonzalez, etc. makes me much less wary of high K-rates.....with the caveat that it comes along with high BB rates and mega power.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#285710) #
Lawrie's last 16gms, before his rbi double tonight:

16gms, 5hr, 17rbi, .302/.348/.571/.919
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#285711) #
Liriano's pulling a Morrow here.

would be nice to really blow it open with one more hit.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#285712) #
The high K-rates don't really scare me anymore.

Yeah, the only problem then is you're dependent on a high BABIP to look good. Get unlucky, as Rasmus has this year, and even with decent power, you're not providing much value.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#285713) #
less wary of high K-rates.....with the caveat that it comes along with high BB rates and mega power.

Which isn't Rasmus, who has medium power and whose BB peaked at 63 in 2010 and have fallen every season since. I think his all around game makes him a solid player even if he hits .240, but the only way he's an All-Star quality player is if the deities of BABiP take a real shine to him, the way they did in 2013.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#285714) #
Not that you were talking about Rasmus. But Francisco does seem a very similar hitter. Certainly closer to Rasmus than the Minnesota David Ortiz, who hit .272/.339/.500 in his last season with the Twins.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#285715) #
A 6-2 lead, with Dickey at 6 IP and 105 pitches, and with an overworked bullpen -- this is where I think you've got to let Dickey stay in.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#285716) #
I don't like Loup vs McCutchen.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#285717) #
Don't think Loup much liked it either. The old unintentional intentional walk. Not that putting the tying run on base is ever a good idea.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#285718) #
Don't think Loup liked Loup vs. McCutchen either. Almost an IBB.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#285719) #
Just when I was thinking "I'm glad Hurdle already used Tabata and the only RH bat he's got is either his backup SS or his backup C...."
AWeb - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#285720) #
This bullpen is crushing my fandom for the entire year right now. Completely different than last year, but it somehow seems almost exactly the same.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#285721) #
"These bat-around innings have really hurt the Jays."

They were ever not going to hurt them?
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#285722) #
This bullpen is crushing my fandom for the entire year right now.

Don't know what they got, but it's like a contagion spreading from person to person. And whatever Pete Walker is doing with these guys, might I suggest that he try something else?
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#285723) #
I wonder if Joey McLaughlin's available. Wikipedia says he's still alive.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#285724) #
crazy stuff.

this is as bad a 'pen streak as I've ever seen.

and to beat a dead horse, pulling Dickey on 105 pitches with a 4 run lead was hasty, considering the state of our bullpen right now, and given that that leadoff double was the first hit Dickey had given up in 3 innings.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#285725) #
"Which isn't Rasmus, who has medium power and whose BB peaked at 63 in 2010 and have fallen every season since. I think his all around game makes him a solid player even if he hits .240, but the only way he's an All-Star quality player is if the deities of BABiP take a real shine to him, the way they did in 2013."

sure it is.

Career 8.6bb%, career .190iso. and he's a good defensive CF.

Colby's career line is plenty good for a good defensive CF:

2771pa, 8.6bb%, 24.6k%, .296babip, .246/.314/.436/.750, .326woba, 102wrc+


and for whatever reason, his two highest K% years have also been his two best years at the plate.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#285726) #
Well, yeah. He's a solid player if he hits .240, and his lifetime BAVG is in fact .246. But .246/.314/.436 wouldn't make him an All-Star unless he played CF like Devon White.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#285727) #
Geez. Three batters in that half inning and it lasted forever...
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#285728) #
57 years old, though his age-58 season (birthday in July). Arm's probably rested.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#285729) #
ridiculous.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#285730) #
Griffin tweets that Bob Stanley is stretching in the Jays pen. Bigfoot doesn't turn 60 until November. What the hell...
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#285731) #
Is it too much to ask that Cabrera, when down by two leading off the 9th, at least try to run to first base after striking out on a ball in the dirt?
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#285732) #
It's a bit crazy to think that Cabrera and Bautista have started the season with OPSs of about 900 and 1100, respectively, and the Jays are on the verge of going 13-17. That tells you just how bad most of the rest of the team has been.
Gerry - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#285733) #
I think the spotlight will focus on Pete Walker soon. Both last year and this year few pitchers have taken a step forward, at least one that can be attributed to Walker.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#285734) #
please just put this out, colby.
JB21 - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#285735) #
I said the same thing to myself Uglyone and then I realized how crappy it would feel to get so pumped after a three run bomb by Colby and then be deflated by another blown save.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#285736) #
The only silver lining is that the Jays are still very much in the thick of things in the AL East. But these 4-6 IP outings by the SPs appears to be taking a heavy toll on the bullpen.

Earlier this year, 92-93 linked to an interview with Buck Showalter, in which Buck said that the O's had researched how relievers' workload over the previous year could affect their expected performance in the current season. The research showed that relievers who had been worked particularly hard during the previous season were likely to be less effective. I wonder if something like this is afflicting the Jays' bullpen (i.e., in addition to the heavy 2014 workload).
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#285737) #
Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
Morrow transferred to 60 day DL with torn tendon sheath in hand


he didn't even last as long as last year. impressive.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#285738) #
Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
Stroman coming up for bullpen



Stroman era has begun.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#285739) #
When they hired Mottola and Walker, I questioned whether hiring rookie hitting and pitching coaches was a wise idea. Mottola was fired after one season. Now Walker appears to be on the hot seat.
Ron - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#285740) #
Stroman has been called up to pitch out of the bullpen.

Welcome to the Show although I would rather have him replace Happ in the rotation.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#285741) #
The Jays must be pretty desperate to call up Stroman now instead of in early to mid-June. Another questionable move by this front office (fail to sign a needed free agent or two in the off-season to bolster the rotation; then call up a star prospect a month early, perhaps prematurely from a developmental perspective, and in any event likely causing the organization to lose a year of control in the long run).

Also, how confident are we in how Walker will influence Stroman's career going forward?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#285742) #
Doesn't it seem like every reliever is afraid to come into the game?
Aren't the Jays losing the games whenever Gibbons tries to get 'just a little bit more' from his Starters?
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#285743) #
Also, now might be a good time to reflect on AA's decision not to acquire a starting pitcher in part because Morrow was looking great in the off-season.
Gerry - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#285744) #
Morrow has a torn tendon sheath in his hand/finger. If he needs surgery he will be done for the season. If he avoids surgery he could be back in July.
Mike Green - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#285745) #
The Jays are not going to lose a year of control of Stroman.  The date for that is in late April (which is why the Rays waited for that point in the case of Longoria).  There is a risk that Stroman will become a Super Two, but if a team intends to contend seriously, that is a risk that should be taken.  As for his readiness, he's now had 25 AA/AAA starts, as well as 8 relief appearances.  His performance in those starts suggests that he is ready. 

I am glad that he is beginning his major league career in the pen.  It means that he can learn something in a relatively low pressure situation and that he can build his seasonal innings load in a reasonable fashion. 



Mike Green - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#285746) #
And as for the contagion spreading in the bullpen, Dr. Green diagnoses it as the rare "confusion epidemic" first described in a song:

"There's too much confusion
I can't get no relief"

Dr. Green prescribes a clear set of roles and a tablespoon of confidence installation for this disorder.



uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#285747) #
I wonder if "Stroman called to the bullpen" just means "Stroman is backing up McGowan tommorrow, and will flip with him next turn round if he struggles."
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#285748) #
The Jays must be pretty desperate to call up Stroman now instead of in early to mid-June. Another questionable move by this front office.

Don't see how anyone could question this move given what we've been through. Are they desperate for help? Good God, yes. But that doesn't make this a desperate move. Calling up Sanchez might be desperate; calling up Stroman's the perfectly sensible thing to do. He looks ready and the team needs him.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#285749) #
Super Two, good point - I tend to forget the difference between loss of a year of control and preventing a player from becoming a Super Two.

The Jays are desperate, to be sure. My point was that they would be less desperate had they signed (for example) Kazmir or Santana. I was not one of those who felt that no additions to the rotation were necessary this off-season (or that Morrow would be good for at least 125 innings).
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#285750) #
As a comparison, people always talk about how good and patient the Rays are in developing starting pitching.

Here's how long some of their main guys were in AAA for before their first callup:

S.Kazmir (20): 0gs
D.Price (22): 4gs, 4.50era, 2.93fip
M.Moore (22): 9gs, 1.37era, 2.06fip
J.Shields (24): 11gs, 2.64era, 2.01fip
A.Cobb (23): 12gs, 1.87era, 2.73fip
C.Archer (23): 27gs, 3.60era, 3.20fip
J.Hellickson (23): 30gs, 2.49era, 2.73fip
J.Odorizzi (23): 40gs, 3.15era, 3.95fip


And of course Stroman's numbers (1.69era, 1.58fip) fit right up with the guys at the top of that list, not the bottom.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#285751) #
My point was that they would be less desperate had they signed (for example) Kazmir or Santana.

And they'd be looking worse off if they'd signed Jimenez. In any case, the starting pitching has been just fine. Stroman's been called up to help with the bullpen, at least for the time being. That's the area of desperation.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#285752) #
As for Pete Walker, no one on here has the foggiest clue whether he's good at his job or not.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#285753) #
We don't know if Walker is good or not, but the aggregate on-field performance of the team's pitchers during his tenure arguably hasn't been great, with Romero a particular point of concern.

Has the starting pitching been fine? It could be argued that the rotation's inability to pitch deep into games is contributing to the bullpen's struggles. And in terms of pure performance (leaving aside innings), have Morrow, McGowan and Dickey been "fine" this year?
greenfrog - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#285754) #
Ubaldo can be frustrating and he's started slowly, but he was brilliant in his last start. There is still a fair chance that he'll be a useful asset this year (he was not my first choice by any stretch). Between Ubaldo and Cruz, the O's have done all right in the FA market so far (they're reportedly interested in Morales, too).

Of course, Santana, Kazmir and Ubaldo weren't the only starting pitchers available this off-season.

Also, while I'm hopeful that Stroman will have a good career, it's asking a lot for him to be a major contributor in his rookie season. Some players, like Fernandez and Gray, are brilliant from the get-go. Most take a while to really get untracked at the ML level.

The fact that Nolin is doing well in the minors is encouraging. He could help strengthen the rotation this year, but he's also an unproven commodity at the ML level.

Whether it all adds up to enough rotational depth remains to be seen. I still think adding one strong 170-220 IP starter would have been a prudent move, given the win-now roster AA has assembled.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#285755) #
Has the starting pitching been fine? It could be argued that the rotation's inability to pitch deep into games is contributing to the bullpen's struggles. And in terms of pure performance (leaving aside innings), have Morrow, McGowan and Dickey been "fine" this year?

Probably not, you're right. And yet, had the bullpen not imploded night after night, the Jays would be in first place. So to that extent the starting pitching has been fine. It's been good enough. And Hutchison has looked terrific. Buehrle's been good. And I'd actually include the emergence of McGowan as a potentially decent starter as another bright spot. Maybe I'm being optimistic with McGowan but -- well, I am optimistic with McGowan.

And McGowan's really what we're talking about anyway when we talk about a free agent signing. Dickey and Morrow were going to be in the rotation regardless so it's just a question of whether McGowan should've been replaced. Sure, we could have upgraded there, but that presumes you pick the right guy in the first place. If not, you've just blown a bunch of money instead of letting McGowan do it better and cheaper. And with Stroman and Hendriks and Nolin doing so well, there's enough depth at SP that I'm not too worried about. So in that sense, too, it's fine.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#285756) #
From John Lott:

The manager was asked if he considered letting Dickey continue, especially given the ongoing crisis in the bullpen. “Not with Loup down there,” Gibbons said. “If I’m bringing in Joe Schmo, it’s a little bit different. I thought it was the right time.

I like Gibbons, and his bullpen management has always seemed a particular strength. But I'm beginning to wonder. I don't blame him for the loss tonight and, under different circumstances, wouldn't have had a problem going to Loup when he did. But he can't keep going to these guys all season long at the first sign of trouble. Tonight was the perfect opportunity, with a relatively safe lead, to let Dickey (a) pitch through the order for a 4th time and see how he does; and (b) spare the bullpen a little. I don't know if they're tired now but they sure will be by the end of the season if this keeps up (as happened last year). And who was he planning on using after Loup anyway? There were four innings to get through when Dickey came out. Does that mean two for Loup? One for Loup and then to Santos or Delabar for a second straight night? Loup for one and Redmond/Rogers for three? That last possibility is the only one that would have attempted to spare some overused arms, but I really doubt that was the plan.

Here's another example: April 22 at home against Baltimore. The Jays scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 8th to take a 9-3 lead. During that inning, Gibbons had Santos and Rogers warming up for the 9th, planning to use Santos in a save situation, Rogers otherwise. Fine. But with a 9-3 lead in the 9th, Rogers gives up a single, gets a fly ball out, and gives up another single. At which point, Gibbons got Santos up in the bullpen for the second time that night. With a 9-3 lead and one out in the 9th! That was the 20th game of the year and at that point Santos had appeared in 8 games. Not overworked perhaps, but worked enough that you want to be taking precautions where possible. (As it happened, Rogers got the next two outs and Santos never appeared.) Now this was a few days after the disaster in Minnesota and a day after Loup blew the lead in Cleveland, which I think explains Gibbons' caution. Same thing tonight, given all that's gone on the last few weeks. But I don't think he's finding the right balance.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#285757) #
Gibby's job would be much easier if his starters would give him at least 7. In the team's 30 games this year, this has happened only five times (three starts by Buehrle, one by RA, one by Hutch). Only *once* this year has a starter pitched more than seven innings. Many of those 30 games involved starts of less than five innings.

That's how you burn out a bullpen.

This year, Santana has gone 8, 6, 7, 6.2, and 6 innings. Kazmir has gone 7.1, 6, 6, 8, 6, 5. This durability/efficiency matters. It's no surprise to me that the bullpen is starting to get roasted.
Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#285758) #
Somewhere in an alternate universe, there is a plan to deal with the problems at hand without any additional resources:
  • decide that the best the club can do at second base is to platoon Goins and Diaz and at least have good defence there; you get a back-up middle infielder out of this as well and can give Reyes the occasional day off
  • decide that the club needs a right-handed back-up OF who can play centerfield, promote either Mastroianni or Pillar and send Gose back down
  • decide that one is comfortable giving the ball to Dickey, Buehrle and Hutchison for 6 innings plus most starts, but take the radical view that one is not comfortable with any other pitcher at hand and run two tandems out of the other two slots (I would do Stroman and Nolin for one and either McGowan or Redmond and Happ for the other)

To make the tandem happen, you need to make clear that the whole notion of "pitcher wins" is antiquated and leads to gross misuse of pitching resources.  It made sense when pitchers completed most of their starts, retained some value when pitchers completed 1/2 or even 1/3 of their starts, but now it is just a relic of another time.  So, a pitcher in the tandem gets the ball for two times through the order maximum and that's it.  If the pitcher has thrown 4 innings, 70 pitches, and a shutout, he gets a warm handshake for a job well done.  If both pitchers throw well, you will get a complete game.   You have a five man bullpen: long man, two lefties, set-up man, ace.  

It does not have to be fixed in stone.  You might decide by late July that Stroman (for instance) is ready for 6 innings consistently. 


Mylegacy - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#285759) #
The good news is that in about 3 years from now our starting pitching will be five of: Hutch, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuma, Norris, Nolin and or Castro. The good news is there is hope.

The bad news is: Will Bautista and Encarnacion and Cabrera and Reyes, etc., etc., even be on the team then? Will they be replaced by guys anywhere near as good? Does the difference in smell between men and women effect the way rats respond to "lab tests"? (The answer to that last question is: Yes. By the way.)

The worse bad news is that in three year's I'll be 70. Seventy. How many more sets of three years do I have to wait to relive the Glory that was 92-93? But the question I really want to know the answer to is: Could I tell the difference in smell between male and female rats? Inquiring minds want to know...time perhaps...for an early wee dram...sigh...

Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#285760) #
The timing matters, as mylegacy rightly points out.  "This is the way it always has been done" is a recipe for mediocrity. 
Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#285762) #
I hope Gibbons pulls McGowan.  His control has faded as the game has worn on; he has been abetted by some undisciplined Pirate swings and it is time to mark the game down as a positive.
scottt - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#285763) #
I thought he might at 95 pitches, but the bullpen must have let him down one too many.
China fan - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#285764) #
It was good that Gibbons decided to leave McGowan in the game.  It was an important boost for his confidence: he was able to hit 7 innings and 101 pitches for the first time in his comeback career.  His 7th inning was a perfect 6 pitches.  Over the past 2 games, McGowan has allowed only 6 hits in 13 innings, and he seems to be getting stronger.   Why relegate him to the bullpen if he's able to do that?   The Jays don't have enough starting pitchers to afford to give up a good one, and McGowan might be a good one.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#285765) #
Opponents vs. Brett Cecil last year:

1st half: 173/250/272
2nd half: 281/373/421

Now with a 7-2 lead in the 9th, Gibbons has him out there. Completely unnecessary. It's not only bad long-term, it might hurt them tomorrow if there really is a close game.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#285766) #
Meant to say: ...if there really is a close game and they can't use Cecil.
Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#285767) #
The decision to leave McGowan in worked out, but it was still the wrong move (in my opinion).  The pitching staff has a team-wide problem with failure to control the strike zone, and McGowan was obviously losing control of the strike zone as the game went on.  He would have walked two in the sixth (up 6-1)  had Marte laid off the 3-1 pitch substantially out of the strike zone. 

The tolerance for the unreasonable walk has got to stop.

TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#285768) #
McGowan did seem to be having trouble in the 6th, but he got through it OK and was only at 95 pitches. If he's going to start, he's going to have to throw more pitches than that and today with a comfortable lead was a good time to push him a bit.
China fan - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#285769) #
"....The tolerance for the unreasonable walk has got to stop...."

Absolutely. But if you're reviewing the Jays pitching staff for their performance over the past couple of weeks, McGowan seems an odd target to single out for criticism on this.  He has allowed 7 walks in his last 17 innings, which isn't too terrible, and he's certainly not the main cause of the Jays control problems.

"....He would have walked two in the sixth (up 6-1) had Marte laid off the 3-1 pitch substantially out of the strike zone...."

Sure, but every pitcher looks worse if you make this kind of calculation.  A lot of hitters swing on pitches outside the strike zone.  Pitchers do this in certain situations to induce poor swings.  You can't just toss these into the "walk" category if the hitter didn't walk.

The most important thing is that the Jays rotation has to develop an ability to pitch into the 7th and 8th and even 9th inning.  You can only do that if you patiently allow the starters to do that, even if that sometimes entails a bit of a risk.
Hodgie - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#285770) #
I must have been asleep at the wheel because I did not realize that McGowan had started wearing his insulin pump on the mound starting with the KC game. It will be interesting to see how it affects his stamina going forward - early results are encouraging if potentially coincidental.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#285771) #
I was truly shocked to see McGowan come back out for the 7th on 95 pitches. Kudos to you Gibber for finally pushing an SP a bit further than you were comfortable with, when he was pitching well.



what a weird state of the AL East right now.

The Yanks hold on to first place, but have by far the worst run differential at -16.

The Jays sit in last place, but have by far the best run differential at +0.

The other three sit in the middle of the division, all with run diffs of -6 or -7.
Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#285772) #
I wasn't criticizing McGowan much.  Throwing a 3-1 pitch outside the zone in an effort to get a batter to chase with a 6-1 lead in the 6th inning and a runner on first is an extremely poor strategy.  If it isn't tiredness, it is stupidity.   My money is on tiredness, or perhaps an ebb in energy level which the insulin pump might help with. 
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#285773) #
"I hope Gibbons pulls McGowan. His control has faded as the game has worn on; he has been abetted by some undisciplined Pirate swings and it is time to mark the game down as a positive."

we really have to stop with this attitude, IMO.

Starters don't straightline dominate every start. They have good innings and bad innings. You don't yank them every time they have a bad inning.
Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#285774) #
It ought not to be restricted to starters.  Gibbons has gone way too long with relievers who don't have their control on a particular day.   The three clubs with the worst walk rates- the White Sox, the Jays and the Astros- are also the clubs with the worst ERAs.  When Esmil Rogers has the best walk rate in your bullpen, you are probably doing something wrong. 

Anyways, I'll concede that it is a personal bias of mine.  If a pitcher can't throw strikes, it's probably not going to turn out well. 

uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#285775) #
But hey, does everyone feel a wee bit more comfortable with a 3B Francisco/2B Lawrie setup at least some of the time, after this series?

or do we think they were lucky that it didn't burn us?


my first impression of Francisco in the field is a distinct lack of range, but solid hands and arms.

And while my first impression of Lawrie at 2B last year was scary bad, my second impression of him there this year is a whole helluva lot better. He looked more than capable of fieding that position this series. Heck, he looked like he might even have plus range at 2B, and turned a couple of double plays with ease.
China fan - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#285776) #
So after all the disasters of the past couple of weeks, the Jays are still just 2.5 games out of first place.  Their hitting has been impressive (5.6 runs per game over the past 13 games).  Hitters like Lawrie and Rasmus are finally improving, and Reyes will probably improve soon too, which makes this a formidable lineup from top to bottom (with the exception of 2B).  And the starting pitchers (with the exception of Morrow of course) have been pretty good, on balance.  If the bullpen can get out of its terrible slump -- which Janssen's pending return could help accomplish -- this might yet be a contending team.

And I agree with uglyone about the possible value of considering Lawrie at 2B in the future.   He's  been good defensively at 2B in the Pittsburgh series.  Does anyone think the Jays should consider keeping him there, with Francisco at 3B, when Lind returns?   It could be a very strong hitting lineup. 

ayjackson - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#285777) #

With the office firing, I too agree that a Goins/Diaz defence first platoon at 2B would probably be in our best interest. Hopefully The both find some quick success down at Buffalo and are back soon.

I think we have to remember that McGowan hasn't started for six years and a little patience on his return to the role is probably prudent.

Mike Green - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#285778) #
For his career, Francisco is .163/.200/.202 against LHP and he is a below-average defender at third base. He's had 9 PAs against LHPs this year and has struck out 5 times and not reached base at all.  You simply cannot do anything but platoon him.  Basically, he's Adam Lind with more pop and less plate control, but also with the ability to play third base well enough that he is part of a reasonable insurance plan against a Lawrie injury.  It was a fine depth acquisition by Anthopoulos, but it's important to recognize his limitations.  Incidentally, he's been quite lucky so far.  He's not going to be hitting over .250 when the season ends. 

Mylegacy - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#285779) #
I spend a lot of time trading on the market (TSX) and reading tons (way too many tons) of investment and business blogs - one of the neat things that happens there is that one Market Watcher of note or another correctly (mostly incorrectly) predicts the exact moment the market changes direction. Calling the top or calling the bottom.

Today - Gentlemen (OK, OK, and Ladies), today, Sunday, May 4th 2014 I'm calling the "Bottom" on this Blue Jays season. With the game today the Jays have just reversed off their low point of the season. From this point to October - the Jays Fly - give me victory or give me victory. You will all look back at today (while watching the Jays in the World Series) and remember fondly, "May 4th - wasn't that the day the slightly pickled one predicted the Jays would go all the way in 14?"

Guys, no guts no glory - I'm ready - lets go get this done!

Chuck - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#285780) #
For his career, Francisco is .163/.200/.202 against LHP and he is a below-average defender at third base. He's had 9 PAs against LHPs this year

Yes, you missed 2 occasions where he was unfathomably the starting DH against LHP.

uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#285781) #
Speaking of Francisco's career.....

Career v. RHP: 711pa, .258/.321/.477/.798

That's legit useful.

His defense has received up and down UZR ratings from year to year, but overall in 925.1 innings at 3B, he's got a -1.3uzr/150.....that's actually better than I thought. That's average defense.

Huh. Just surprised myself - for some reason the first time I looked at his defensive numbers I thought it said he was awful there.

If Francisco and Lawrie can give us near average defense at 3B and 2B respectively, then their bats might legit make them a better option than the scrubs we've been sending out at 2B this year....at least vs. RHP.

Vs. RHP (with career wRC+ vs. RHP)

1) SS Reyes 105
2) LF Cabrera 100
3) RF Bautista 126
4) 1B AdamLind 126
5) DH Encarnacion 113
6) 3B Francisco 116
7) 2B Lawrie 105
8) CF Rasmus 112
9) C Navarro 75


Vs. LHP

1) SS Reyes 110
2) LF Cabrera 99
3) RF Bautista 134
4) 1B Encarnacion 130
5) C Navarro 107
6) 3B Lawrie 102
7) DH Sierra 94
8) CF Rasmus 76
9) 2B Tolleson 105


Those could be pretty dominant offensive lineups, if the defense holds.
electric carrot - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#285782) #
Those could be pretty dominant offensive lineups, if the defense holds.

I guess that's true -- but only if the offense holds. I have noticed time and time again with this team when a regular is asked to play a more challenging defensive position that their offense suffers because of it.  Not worth the risk in my mind.

John Northey - Sunday, May 04 2014 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#285783) #
So we now have a roster of...
CA: Kratz, Navarro, Thole
1B: Encarnacion
2B: Getz
3B: Lawrie (also 2B)
SS: Reyes
LF: Cabrera
CF: Rasmus
RF: Bautista
DH: Francisco (also 3B, 1B)
IF/OF: Tollenson

What a weird one that is.  3 catchers, no pure outfielder.  Kratz at DH should be better than Lind/Sierra.

Rotation: Buehrle, Dickey, Hutchison, McGowan, Happ
Pen: Loup, Santos, Cecil, Delabar, Jenkins, Rogers, Redmond, Stroman

So a pen with 4 short guys and 4 long guys who all want to be starting.  At least the top 4 in the rotation have all had a 7 inning game now which gives hope.  I'm wondering if Happ is being showcased while Stroman gets his feet wet in the majors.  We'll see I guess.
Magpie - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#285784) #
If Francisco and Lawrie can give us near average defense at 3B and 2B respectively

If Lawrie stays at second base, he will get hurt. I guarantee it. So you just have to hope it's nothing major, like a knee getting blown out on a DP gone bad when he didn't bail out in time.
John Northey - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 06:55 AM EDT (#285785) #
It is interesting so far...

16 innings for Lawrie at 2B, he saw 3 in zone and got all 3, 3 out of zone also. Francisco in 24 innings has seen 6 in zone and got 5 of them plus 2 out of zone.  Not bad for either.  Both getting to what they should.

For runs saved on defense...
+2 runs: Diaz (SS), Lawrie (3B), Goins (2B), Goins (SS)
-2 runs: Cabrera (LF), Bautista (RF..-4.9)

Basically Bautista has been so poor as to give up all the gains from Diaz plus Lawrie while Cabrera takes away 1/2 of Goins savings.  Sigh... if only Diaz or Goins could get up to a 600 OPS they'd be very valuable.

MikeS - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#285787) #
Sorry Can't resist - May the 4th be with you.
Mike Green - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#285788) #
Dioner Navarro ran to first base yesterday slower than Willie Mays Aikens portaging a sumo wrestler over a fast-flowing river.  He's got a knee injury that pretty clearly is nowhere near healed.  It is puzzling that the club simply didn't DL him and platoon Kratz and Thole for 15 days, especially with the club in National League parks for a week and then Lind likely ready to go after that. 
Mike Green - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#285789) #
I hadn't thought of Troy Tulowitzki as a Hall of Famer in the making prior to now, but really that is my lack of attention to what he has accomplished
Richard S.S. - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#285790) #
I'd like to think every season has obvious turning points. April 16th was one (PPD -cold/snow). Prior to that, in 14 games, Toronto was 8-6 and in sole possession of first place. Since that day they went 5-11 and fell to last place, but still in the race. Hopefully May 4th (the emergence of Marcus Stroman) is another turning point.
Chuck - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#285792) #
I hadn't thought of Troy Tulowitzki as a Hall of Famer in the making prior to now

In earlier days, the accomplishments of Galarraga, Bichette and Castilla were overrated, and the effects of Coors were not properly valuated, at least in the mainstream. Now the pendulum has likely swung too far the other way, and the accomplishments of Larry Walker and, perhaps, Tulowitzki may well go underrated. Were Tulowitzki playing for any other team, I think he would be a star player that mainstream fans would well know.

Mike Green - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#285794) #
Incidentally, when people rip Keith Law, it is probably worthwhile to return to the whole Tulowitzki/Romero/Maybin first round pick decision of 2005.  Law supported Tulowitzki but was in a minority in the organization.  He turned out to be correct on that one...
uglyone - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#285795) #
"If Lawrie stays at second base, he will get hurt. I guarantee it."


That's a safe bet even if he stays at 3b, no?


And is it true that navarro's injured?

Is this a good time to point out that thole has a better career line vs RHP than Dioner?
Mike Green - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#285796) #
It was a "tight left quad" that kept Navarro out of Friday and Saturday's game.  He pinch-hit on Sunday and hobbled to first base in roughly 7.5 seconds. 

Incidentally, Reyes has clearly lost quite a few steps.  He's not even thinking triple in situations where he would have coasted into third base five or six years ago.  As an offensive player, he is going to have rely on his considerable hitting ability and hone it a little. 

John Northey - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#285797) #
Tulowitzki turns 30 in October.  So far he has just over 1000 hits, 162 HR, 54 SB (just 3 in the past 3 years though), 3 time all-star, 2 gold gloves.  Lifetime WAR of 35.  Did poorly in the playoffs so far (211/270/351).  891 games at SS so far.  His similarity scores indicate how unique he is, as only 5 are 900+ in similarity at the same age and that screams 'special talent'.  I'd put him 50% of the way to the HOF but that last half is very hard to get.  He'll need to get healthy (last played 145+ in 2009) and keep the production up (not an issue this year with a 216 OPS+).  Double those career numbers (2000 hits, 300 HR) and he should be a lock as a shortstop although Trammell would disagree (2365 H 185 HR and unlikely to be voted in).  Those HR will help, but given how voters have been I think he'll need the 2000/300 combo to make it with the Coors issue.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#285798) #
Law supported Tulowitzki but was in a minority in the organization.

That's not how Law tells it Mike. That's cover for Ricciardi that Law doesn't provide.According to Law, there was a consensus of the baseball people, and a majority of them wanted Tulo. Ricciardi overruled them. Much like he did with Chris Buckley in the 2002 draft debacle.
John Northey - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#285800) #
Of course, every GM has those draft moments.  Gillick could've had Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens and could've rule 5'd Wade Boggs (he admits to considering it then not doing it).  Imagine the Jays of the 80's with those 3 instead of Matt Stark (over Clemens) and Augie Schmidt (over Dwight Gooden).
Hodgie - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#285801) #
I don't know if Tulowitzki is underrated so much as he is momentarily overlooked with each passing trip to the DL. This is a man that has already missed 289 games since he became a regular in 2007. Hard to stay in the public consciousness when you are not on the field. Coincidentally, that is likely part of the reason that Walker's greatness was tempered in the public's eye.
Mike Green - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#285802) #
Thanks, CBDC, for the correction.  I had it differently from another source locked up in my unreliable memory.  I wasn't particularly trying to cover for Ricciardi, but rather to point out that Law had it right. 

Durability is an issue for Tulowitzki.  Through age 29, he's pretty much been the same hitter and not that much lesser of a fielder than Cal Ripken, but he's missing 2000 PAs.  That's what separates him from a no-brainer  to being on a Hall of Fame path but needing to play well until his late 30s. 

John Northey - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#285803) #
Just read AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Schoop, Gray and noticed who they list as 2B trade possibilities... Rickie Weeks, Luis Valbuena, Emilio Bonifacio and Danny Espinosa. Somehow I doubt Bonifacio will be coming here again anytime soon.

Weeks: 46 OPS+ after a 82 last year, 93 the year before and 121 before that.  See a trend? He is 31 this year and making $11 mil.  No.
Valbuena: 108 OPS+ this year, 80 lifetime but a 93 last year. Plays more 3B than 2B but under $2 mil this year. Not ideal, but not horrid.
Bonifacio: 109 OPS+ this year but I cannot see him coming back
Espinosa: Spent last year in AAA mostly, just a 28 OPS+ in majors then a 112 this year but 91 lifetime. Had 189 K's in 2012. Makes me think of Alex Gonzalez #1 but at 2B instead of SS. Super cheap still (pre-arb until 2015).

Espinosa is the only one there I'd think the Jays would seriously chase, with Valbuena being a 'meh, slight upgrade' guy.  Meanwhile Nick Franklin in Seattle has hit for over a 900 OPS in AAA  but just a 36 OPS+ in 7 games in the majors while hopping all over the field.  Dustin Ackley is now in LF and has a 87 OPS+.  Poor roster management there as both could provide a lot more value in trade than being stuck out of position I'd think.  Jesus Montero is also stuck in AAA with a 913 OPS at 1B/DH.  Can't help but think there should be a match there, getting Montero and either Ackley or Franklin for something.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#285804) #
Poorly put by me Mike. I didn't intend to suggest you were.
Gerry - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#285805) #
Casey Janssen will start for New Hampshire tonight.
Gerry - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#285806) #
Neil Wagner has been placed on the DL in Buffalo.
Chuck - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#285807) #
Casey Janssen will start for New Hampshire tonight.

Is that a courtesy so that he can get his inning or so of work in and then ice down and then return to his hotel at his discretion? (rather than forcing him to sit around watching a game he doesn't care about just to get some work in in the 9th inning)

scottt - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#285808) #
He's certainly isn't being stretched.
Gerry - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#285809) #
Yes, courtesy to a major leaguer. He better lay on a good spread for the clubhouse. In case you didn't know major leaguers on rehab are supposed to lay in a very good after game meal for the players. Minor leaguers judge major leaguers based on the spread they pony up for. In Janssen's case he will have 2-3 more appearances for NH so tonights spread should be a good one.
Chuck - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#285812) #
I was not aware of the protocol. Makes sense. One guy is worth a fortune and the other guys are not even making a living wage.
uglyone - Monday, May 05 2014 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#285816) #
Janssen: 1.0ip, 2h, 0xbh, 0r, 0bb, 0k, 17pc/13st
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