Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Game Threads Jays at Kansas City - Series Thread

The Jays head to KC without Ryan Goins. Goins likely would not have improved his numbers in KC, the Jays face two left handed pitchers plus Yordano Ventura. Meanwhile Chris Getz gets to face two lefties right away, it could get him off to a hot start.

The Jays throw Dustin McGowan, Drew Hutchison and Mark Buehrle against the Royals. I believe I heard, or read, that McGowan might use an insulin pump in this start. McGowan is a diabetic and the loss of blood sugar could explain his difficulty once he gets 90 minutes into the game. I also believe that Brandon Morrow uses an insulin pump when he pitches. All eyes will be on McGowan tonight.



Your matchups are:

Tuesday: Dustin McGowan (6.88 ERA) vs Jason Vargas (1.54 ERA). Just based on ERA this looks like advantage Royals.

Wednesday: Drew Hutchison (3.46 ERA) vs Bruce Chen (7.45 ERA). Advantage Toronto. Chen has been hit around over his last three starts. There are some comments in the KC press that manager Ned Yost was considering skipping Chen due to the Royals off-day on Monday.

Thursday: Mark Buehrle (2.16 ERA) vs Yordano Ventura (1.80 ERA). This is the game of the series, 84 mph fastball vs 100 mph fastball (Ventura's average FB velocity is 96 mph). Ventura has 27 K's in 25 IP.

I assume Gibby will slip Getz into Goins spot at the bottom of the order. Otherwise we are waiting for the Jays offense to fire on all cylinders. Jose Reyes returns to the scene of his 2013 ankle injury but he hasn't found his hitting form yet. Brett Lawrie has been up and down with his hitting, with more down until he had a good game on Sunday. Colby Rasmus has also been inconsistent.

The Royals offense has been struggling, they are 13th in the league in wOBA. Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler have combined for zero home runs. Mike Moustakos has Brett Lawrie style offensive numbers.

All games are 8pm starts.

Posted by Gerry on Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:04 AM EDT.
Jays at Kansas City - Series Thread | 159 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#285443) #
In McGowan's last start he threw 70 pitches, with Happ throwing 51 pitches in relief. Happ has not pitched since. I'm not expecting a solid start out of McGowan today, and I'm hoping the plan is for another long relief appearance from Happ - and then Happ starting and McGowan long relieving on Sunday in Pittsburgh.
[ Reply to This ]
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#285444) #
As for the offence - Encarnacion's OPS bottomed out at .501 on April 12. In the 13 games since he's .306 / .404 / .490 in 57 PA.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#285445) #
Dustin Boyd is now it A.A. New Hampshire. Is he a real Prospect now? Goins is down, Getz is up, who is out (DFA)?
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#285446) #
Seem odd that McGowan wouldn't have duplicated Morrow's in-game insulin routine from the beginning of the season.   But to be fair, there are so many variables in a pitcher's health, and nobody's quite figured it all out yet.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#285447) #
The B-R Preview is up ...
Relievers....
1 day off: Delabar (threw both Sat & Sun so should have today off), Rogers (just 12 pitches so available if needed)
2 days off: Cecil (normally one day on, one day off so should be in the game tonight), Jenkins, Loup, Santos
3 days off: Redmond (threw 3 days in a row, bit odd)
5 days off: Happ - as rested as it gets without going comatose

So really, the full pen is available but Delabar will almost certainly have the night off as will Rogers.  Cecil I think is a lock to be in, with Happ being the long man tonight if needed...er...McGowan on mound so we will be seeing Happ.
[ Reply to This ]
ogator - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#285448) #
Ryan Goins did the best he could with what he had. But as noted by several posters, there was precious little evidence in his minor league performance to suggest that he could be even a weak major league hitter. In six years in the Major Leagues, Chris Getz slashed 250/310/309 an OPS of 609 and an OPS+ of 73. Let's not even discuss his 2013 year in KC.
The Blue Jays have had a problem at 2B for a while now and management is not doing anything observable to address this problem. I have nothing against Goins or Getz and talented infielders don't grow on trees but surely we have a right to expect the front office to do a better job than this.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#285455) #
Would have been nice if Aaron Hill hadn't inexplicably become terrible here. Been looking for a 2B like Aaron Hill ever since.

[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#285457) #
Mickey Storey released per Blue Jays to make room on the 40 man roster for Getz.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#285458) #
Brought it up in another thread - wonder if they'll be temoted when lind is healthy to try the lawrie@2b experiment again, with francisco at 3b, even though that would be a terrible infield defensively.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#285459) #
AA spent all winter talking about the need for better defense so sure, why not try Lawrie at 2B? /sarcasm
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#285460) #
For the record, in the absence of an established 2b, i'm a big fan of continually rotating through the marginal options trying to find the hot bats. Marginal players get hot all the time - in our situation the worst thing we could do is stick with one of the many options even when slumping. None of them have the upside to make that worthwhile.

And i would say they already stuck with goins longer than they should have, considering he did nothing to earn first shot at the job in the first place. No problem giving goins a shot - but i'm not sure why they gave him automatic first dibs, enough that they went with him for a full month even after a terrible spring performance.
[ Reply to This ]
gabrielthursday - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#285461) #
Let's not completely write off Goins just yet. His struggles at the plate were mainly due to an appallingly bad batted-ball profile. Some of it may be sample size variation, but there's no way to look at a 12.8% LD rate and a high pop-up rate and see a decent hitter. His poor batted-ball profile contributed to a very low BABIP. That said, Goins did reduce his K%, increase his BB% and improve almost all of his swing metrics (albeit from the poor levels of last year). I would not be surprised if he makes some further adjustments in Buffalo and returns in a month or two.
[ Reply to This ]
Super Bluto - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#285462) #
Seem odd that McGowan wouldn't have duplicated Morrow's in-game insulin routine from the beginning of the season.  

Especially because its worked so well for Morrow so far.
[ Reply to This ]
smcs - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#285463) #
Brought it up in another thread - wonder if they'll be temoted when lind is healthy to try the lawrie@2b experiment again,

Please, no more of this. Lawrie is their emergency 2B (and probably the emergency C), but moving him to 2B full-time (AGAIN) would solidify the idea that this front office and coaching staff, has no idea what they are doing.
[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#285464) #
I don't think enough has been said about the vast improvement so far this year in fielding -- Jays are currently 1st overall in MLB with just 8 errors in 25 games and remarkably just 4 errors by position players (with the other 4 by pitchers). Last year they were 26th.

It's definitely time to try something different at second base , but Goins has proven himself to be an elite fielder and I'm certainly hoping he gets his confidence back at the plate because he's got gold glove skills if he could hit well enough to play every day.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#285465) #
"....Especially because its worked so well for Morrow so far...."

He's got a career fWAR of 10.6 and a career FIP of 3.95.   But sure, go ahead with the cheap sarcasm.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#285468) #
While the Jays have cut down in errors their range is nothing to write home about.  Defensive efficiency (which measure outs made on balls in play) has the Jays at #24 in the majors.  For 2011 through 2013 they were #16 each and every year (well, they were consistent). 

So why would it be so poor this year?
UZR/150 over +30 (ie: insanely good): Sierra (RF), Diaz (SS), Goins (SS)
UZR/150 over +10 (ie: extremely good): Reyes, Lawrie, Francisco (1B), Izturis, Diaz (2B)
UZR/150 over 0 (ie: solid): Gose, Sierra (LF), EE, Lind, Francisco (3B)
UZR/150 under -10 (poor): Rasmus, Cabrera (LF)
UZR/150 under -30 (super-ugly): Bautista (RF), Cabrera (CF), Bautista (CF), Kawasaki (2B)

Bautista, Cabrera, and Rasmus in their usual positions in the OF have done very poorly this year. When anyone is put into CF for Rasmus (other than Gose) it gets even uglier. Goins and Diaz were doing everything they could defensively but it won't make up for an outfield that has shown very poor range this year.  Rasmus I have hope for (small sample size) but not the other 2.  The infield of Lawrie/Reyes/Goins/EE has been very solid and Diaz/Izturis/Lind/Francisco have all done solid jobs filling in.

So clearly the issue for infield defense was solved and keeping one of Diaz or Goins up makes a ton of sense.  Now the outfield is the issue.  Sierra has played well in limited time but I doubt anyone expects that to continue. Sierra and Gose are the only outfielders at any of the 3 positions to do well defensively though and that will kill the team long term if not addressed or if Rasmus doesn't step up more. 

[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#285469) #
With the front offices new focus on D, I can't see Sierra sticking around much longer ... Maestro up? 

[ Reply to This ]
gabrielthursday - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#285470) #
John, while you're right to point out defensive efficiency as an issue, I'd suggest that it's too early to read very much into those numbers. UZR and DRS both attempt to adjust the raw numbers for the quality of chances, and both suggest a team near-average in defensive ability. The Inside Edge data also supports that average-ish judgement.

Broadly speaking, the infield is solid and the outfield has problems. I'm sceptical the outfield is as bad as the numbers have suggested thus far, and I think an infield with Reyes and Getz rather than Goins and Diaz will regress. Overall, I still see the Jays being right around average defensively.


[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#285472) #
Oh agreed gabrielthursday.  More was looking to see why, when we all think there has been an improvement the Jays DE is actually down from last year.  Clearly the outfield has been a nightmare and that is the issue.  Last year we saw a lot of innings in the outfield by Pillar (+20.4 in 251 innings), Rasmus (+15.2), and Bautista having a good year (+7.6).  Gose, for some reason, was a disaster defensively (-22.2 in 347 innings) as was Cabrera & Sierra (both in the -13 range). 

This year Sierra has been amazing (+56.3 but just 54 innings) and Gose solid (8.8 but just 8 innings).  But the 3 getting playing time seem unable to get to the balls.  Here are some raw numbers...
Sierra: 7 balls in zone, got them all, also got 6 outside his zone
Rasmus: 51 in zone, got 49, also got 8 outside zone in 123 more innings than Sierra
Cabrera: missed 3 in his zone, got 12 outside in 221 innings
Bautista: missed 6 in his zone, just 5 outside in 204 innings

Seems like they are getting to most of what they should, but just not getting to stuff outside the zone (Rasmus) or just plain old having issues for Bautista.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#285473) #
while Getz isn't anything to write home about, he has speed and will take a walk in addition to solid defence -with his connections to both Gibbons & Seitzer from their KC days, I expect Getz will get a long look - an interesting sidelight for me - The cardinals give Mark Ellis 5.25mil as insurance for Kolten Wong, AA without any money got Getz off the scrap heap ( likely due to the Gibbons/Seitzer assoc.) - while Ellis is the better player, I won't be surprised if Getz puts up similar ops while playing better defence.

I'm hoping McGowan has a good game as I'd like to see Stroman have 5-6 more starts to improve his cutter & changeup - there are some very good LHB in the AL east.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#285474) #
btw, that Lawrie to 2nd, Francisco to 3b is a non-starter for me - too much of a defensive downgrade for this pitching staff.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#285475) #
I was surprised to learn that Francisco played 255 innings at 3B last season.  So I suppose, in a pinch, it's an option for the Jays, even though Francisco doesn't exactly resemble a natural 3B at this stage of his career.  Does anyone have any recollection of how he looked at 3B last season for Atlanta or Milwaukee?

Also, with the long-term injury to Izturis and the demotion of Goins, who is the back-up 3B if Lawrie is injured?  Getz has virtually no 3B experience, so I guess it has to be Diaz or Kawasaki if there's an injury to Lawrie.  Or maybe Francisco would indeed get a look at 3B.   (I'm assuming that the Jays won't want to put Bautista back at 3B even for a few games.)



[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#285476) #
There appears to be a consensus among those that follow the team that Marcus Stroman will soon be called up. The obvious casualty would be Dustin McGowan who would presumably head to the bullpen with Jenkins back to Buffalo. All of that is understandable except for the presence of JA Happ. The clubs treatment of Happ puzzles me.

When Happ was acquired the story was that AA liked him, and for a while Happ received the support of AA and over the last winter AA always talked Happ up as a starter for this team.

Now that Happ is with the team he appears to be buried at the back of the bullpen. Happ was glued to the bench over the weekend even though Buehrle was out of the game early. If the team really likes him, why are they burying him?

If I had to make an assumption, I would assume that AA likes Happ but that Gibbons is less enthused. It's AA's decision to put him on the roster but Gibbons call as to how he is used. Gibbons has not given Happ many opportunities to shine.

So what if McGowan fails? Will it be Happ or Stroman? Whose choice is it, AA or Gibbons?

As a reminder this is speculation on my part.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#285477) #
Gerry, the Happ treatment really does puzzle me especially because in spring training, Gibbons was an enthusiastic supporter, even when Happ was struggling, Gibbons was saying that he considers him a member of the rotation unless he's injured - when he went on the injury rehab, I was surprised he came back so quickly and didn't make a couple more starts to stretch out - maybe Happ pressed to be recalled & the team is unhappy with him because of that?
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#285478) #
Speaking of Wong, he was demoted to AAA yesterday.
[ Reply to This ]
christaylor - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#285479) #
It might seem that way, but I'm not saying this in a flippant way -- Brandon Morrow is the black swan (there are others, but he's the one I've seen the most) that makes me doubt the assumptions that go into both of these two stats.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#285480) #
My speculation on Happ:  the back injury in spring training had messed up his mechanics, so he has needed some time in the minors and in the bullpen to get his act together. Now he's ready to be inserted in the rotation, but the Jays didn't think it was fair to yank McGowan out of the rotation immediately.  Having patiently allowed McGowan to get stretched out as a starter, the Jays want to see a bit more of what they have in him -- at least for one more start anyway.  If he again performs poorly, McGowan goes into the bullpen, and either Happ or Stroman replaces him.  My guess is Happ at this point.  But even if it is Stroman who replaces McGowan in the rotation, there's little question that Happ is ready to go and is the 6th starter, ready to replace any other starter who falters or gets injured.

I don't see any disagreement between Gibbons and Anthopoulos over their opinion of Happ.  Both have been glowing in their comments on Happ.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#285483) #
"With the front offices new focus on D, I can't see Sierra sticking around much longer ... Maestro up?"

Mastro's always an option...but more interesting is Pillar - the guy i think they had pegged to be the 4th OF all along, but who had a terrible spring and first couple of weeks.

But it seems he's found his swing again:

Last 10gms: .378avg, .410obp, .486slg, .897ops


Remember that this is a (not so young) kid who can field CF capably, steal a base, and seems to have a legit hit tool - he has yet to post a sub-.300 avg or a sub-.800 ops in any total milb season yet.

He's the guy that was supposed to be the 4th OF all along i think - Sierra was only supposed to be fighting for the platoon DH slot i think.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#285484) #
"Also, with the long-term injury to Izturis and the demotion of Goins, who is the back-up 3B if Lawrie is injured? Getz has virtually no 3B experience, so I guess it has to be Diaz or Kawasaki if there's an injury to Lawrie. Or maybe Francisco would indeed get a look at 3B. (I'm assuming that the Jays won't want to put Bautista back at 3B even for a few games.)"



Not sure if many noticed but francisco actually ended up playing 3b for an inning last week aftet a bunch of pinch hitters were used. He made a pretty nifty play on a tricky hopper, too.
[ Reply to This ]
McNulty - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#285487) #
I hope I don't sound too Tabler-esque in being palpable here...but man is it a treat to watch a healthy Melky Cabrera.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#285488) #
Before this 6th inning starts, I want to say that McGowan should be pulled at the first sign of trouble, and that it will not be a quick hook regardless of his pitch count. He's done a good job of answering all this Stroman/Happ chatter, for now.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#285489) #
Baseball is a funny game. Before the season, a BB poster (can't remember who) confidently predicted that Cabrera would be released by May. Meanwhile, Cabrera just set a franchise record for hits in April. There are always a ton of surprises throughout the season, which is one of the things that makes baseball such a great game.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#285490) #
"He's the guy that was supposed to be the 4th OF all along i think - Sierra was only supposed to be fighting for the platoon DH slot i think."

And for a guy who hasn't hit lefties historically well and isn't actually being started vs. LHP, Sierra's presence on this roster continues to be dumbfounding.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#285491) #
Wow.  6 IP out of McGowan with under 100 pitches thrown (86 so far).  Can't complain about that, especially with just 1 ER and 2 R total allowed.  ERA down from 6.88 to 5.48.  I think he has earned himself at least one or two more starts.  What is odd is the low K figures.  Just 2 in 6 innings.  5 ground outs vs 6 flyouts, so he isn't purely counting on the quality infield defense either.  

The Jays really want him to succeed as he has been a golden boy for years and they have an option on 2015 for him at just $4 mil which, for a starter, is a big bargain.  Lifetime he has made under $5.5 mil plus his first 3 partial seasons (couldn't be more than $1.2 mil) so if he can last all year in the rotation he would've been worth the dollar cost even if the Jays had zilch for his past efforts (B-R lists his lifetime WAR at 1.5 coming into this year).  If he gets that ERA down to the 4 range and gets 30 starts out of that arm the Jays will have to be super-happy.
[ Reply to This ]
McNulty - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#285492) #
I watched a lot of the Giants in 2012 (hey, I was on Korean time...the time difference fit my schedule better) and Melky was ostensibly the reason why I kept tuning in. To cap it all off there were more than a couple laser beams from left field to save runs (one in Colorado comes to mind). He's looking awfully close to the player he was that season.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#285493) #
"Before this 6th inning starts, I want to say that McGowan should be pulled at the first sign of trouble, and that it will not be a quick hook regardless of his pitch count. He's done a good job of answering all this Stroman/Happ chatter, for now."


Thankfully the gibber didn't bring out what would obviously have been the quick hook after the leadoff double, and kept him in to finish off the easy inning.

And he even let him come out to try and complete another.

Good on the gibber.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#285496) #
Delabar is just not missing any bats this year. At all.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#285497) #
What the (#&@) was Gibbons thinking bringing in Delabar today?  He threw Saturday AND Sunday thus was the most tired on the staff, when almost everyone else is fully rested.  Just, what the (*#@(@
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#285498) #
McGowan went 3 up 3 down in the 6th. The leadoff double came in the 7th.

Delabar is the only Jays RH set-up man right now. He threw 25 high stressful pitches on Sunday and pitched on Saturday as well. They are going to send him to the DL again this summer because they are currently carrying FOUR long relievers and have to use Delabar too often.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#285499) #
Well, there is the option of using Redmond who has been reasonably effective this year. That would've made some sense.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#285500) #
Not the best display of defence we've seen from this Jays this year (although Bautista's assist was a beauty).
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#285501) #
Gibbons was RIPPED for going to Redmond in the 3rd inning, and now he's going to come into the 7th with a RISP in a save situation? Gibbons can't win.

I don't blame the manager for going with his best options to win the game. I blame the GM for horrendous roster construction.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#285502) #
Would have been wagner is we weren't obsessed with the notion of rogers and happ having value.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#285503) #
But seriously, given the performance of our 'pen this year, and delabar's recent usage......why are we pulling our starter on 92 pitches with a 3 run lead, when he's been rolling the last few innings, just because he gives up a leadoff double that should have been a fly ball out?

I mean if our bullpen had been effective this year, i'd understand it, but it hasn't been.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#285504) #
The Jays could always use Stroman as a power arm out of the 'pen. He could probably step right into the role of 2nd RH setup man right now.

I understand why the Jays want to keep developing him as a starter, though.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#285505) #
What are the odds the runner on 3rd comes home on a WP?
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#285506) #
92-93 - very good point about roster construction.  Why Wagner isn't here is purely this obsessive need to keep Redmond/Rogers/Happ when the roster only has space for one of them really.  Redmond is the one I'd keep and try to get Rogers through waivers while trying to find a home for Happ.  The manager clearly has no faith in Rogers, little in Happ and slightly more in Redmond but not much.  He has tons of confidence in Wagner though and he is stuck in AAA.  Grrrr.
[ Reply to This ]
McNulty - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#285507) #
If the Jays get out of this with a tie, I'll be overjoyed. Besides....Cabrera leads off next inning.
[ Reply to This ]
Eephus - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#285508) #
After checking, Sergio Santos does not have a 1.2 inning save in his career.

Whaddya know, he still doesn't. Maybe Gibbons should really stop trying this.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#285509) #
People here have been crapping on our SP this year, but our SP have been better than our RP.

[ Reply to This ]
McNulty - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#285510) #
Gibby you done did it this time....
[ Reply to This ]
McNulty - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#285511) #
And now by virtue of this adventure from Santos, he's burned for tomorrow along with Delabar. As Hawk Harrelson would say with exasperation....mercy!
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#285512) #
Starters: 140.0ip, 4.37era
Bullpen: 90.0ip, 4.80era


We have enough starts where our SP actually NEED to be pulled...but why gibby keeps yanking our SP at well under 100 pitches when they're actually pitching WELL is beyond me.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#285513) #
The Jays were also hurt tonight by not having a solid RH bat to start at DH against Vargas. Hence my campaign to sign someone like Morales (I know a RH DH/1B/corner OF wasn't the Jays' area of greatest need, but this would have been a not-insignificant upgrade over Sierra).
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#285514) #
When the Jays play well, I feel like I was way too pessimistic when I predicted 77 wins for them this year. Then they have a week like the last one and I think I might not have been far off.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#285515) #
Make that a 5.10era for our bullpen now.

Good thing we still have rogers and happ, though!
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#285516) #
McGowan pitches 85 quality pitches and despite an ugly 2-run inning his outing is a success. I don't understand bringing him out for the 7th, that's a brain-dead knee-jerk decision. Lead-off double and now you're scrambling. And a discouraged KC is excited once again. Stupid.

You take an All-Star Defense from 3B and replace it with average defense, that's desperate if not injury-related. You take an experienced 2B and replace him with an inexperienced anyone is really desperate even if injury-related.

Jays don't blow leads, they get humiliated, as the Bullpen panics, "woe is us".
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#285517) #
Amusing how Buck and Pat are marvelling at how Melky once had 51 hits in a month, while failing to mention it happened to occur in the same year he was caught using PEDs. Company men to the end.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, April 29 2014 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#285518) #
You want him to pull our SP at 85 pitches, even when they're pitching well?

When our bullpen has been poop all year?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#285519) #
Your Starter goes six very good innings for the very first time since his last good Start, 11th April. Each of his subsequent starts, he ran out of gas before his arm got tired. Each inning he pitches is also another 8-10 warmup pitches. He's been a success, why mess with it for another inning. That's just more "throw him out there until he gets into trouble" nonsense. Let McGowan have a win.

The biggest problem this Bullpen has is coming in with runners on, the slightest mistake is hughly magnified. It's just possible that Delabar starts the 7th, it's a clean inning. The same applies to Cecil. Right now, the Bullpen is the Jays' biggest issue. And Janssen is still 7-14 days away.

The other issue is Happ, Redmond, Rogers and Jenkins all filing the same roll - usually not very well.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#285520) #
What the (#&@) was Gibbons thinking bringing in Delabar today? He threw Saturday AND Sunday thus was the most tired on the staff, when almost everyone else is fully rested. Just, what the (*#@(@

Well the rested guys didn't pitch very well either. And Delabar was rested enough anyway. This loss had nothing to do with Gibbons. And nothing to do with Anthopoulos for that matter; he's built a very good bullpen. Sometimes good pitchers have nights like this, even weeks like this.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#285521) #
As long as you have the 8-man bullpen you have to use it.

Is Loup still out with the flu? There was a nasty bug sweeping through the Orioles' clubhouse. I hope it's not moved to the Jays'.

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#285522) #
I see it as pushing that horse too hard with Delabar.  You have 8 guys in the pen, one has pitched 2 of the past 3 days while the rest have not. So who do you use first? The guy most likely to need a day off of course.  Generally I trust Gibbons with the pen but that was just a poor choice imo. He might have got away with it had a few things gone slightly different but the risk was high.  Yes, Cecil and Santos didn't have it either but with Delabar it was predictable before the fact (see my comments way up the thread saying Delabar is the one guy out of that massive pen probably not available).

However, the real blame here goes to AA and horrid roster construction. To have 4 long men in a pen is just nutty. We all know the manager has 0 confidence in Rogers with the 0.3 leverage index when entering a game (ie: almost always in when there is nothing at stake).  Happ and Redmond are the only other guys on the roster used in sub 1.0 conditions overall.  Everyone else is 1.2 or higher.  Jenkins one appearance was a 3.2 (based loaded up by 2, left down by 4).  Redmond twice was in a game with above 1 LI and he did OK in one (1 run in 3 1/3, gave up winning run but did pitch well) and poorly in the other (came in ahead by 3, left down by 3).  Happ's highest pressure game (still sub 1 for LI) shifted from down by 1 to down by 4.  Rogers 4 times came in with the Jays down by 2 (that's it for games the Jays were within 3) and 2 of those times he gave up 3+ runs and a 3rd he gave up a run and allowed 2 inherited runners to score.  Hmmm.... think I see why Gibbons has zero confidence in his long men in anything resembling a pressure situation.
[ Reply to This ]
Super Bluto - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#285524) #
He's got a career fWAR of 10.6 and a career FIP of 3.95.   But sure, go ahead with the cheap sarcasm.

Point is, he's been pretty mediocre and inconsistent and at times this year, truly awful.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#285525) #
However, the real blame here goes to AA and horrid roster construction.

But all you're really talking about is Wagner, then. He's the only guy who could be here and isn't. And I wouldn't call Wagner not being here, temporarily, horrid roster construction. I also don't think you can say last night's loss is attributable to not having him. Gibbons used his top three relievers, so blaming the loss on not having Wagner, who might be the number 5 guy in the bullpen, seems a bit much.

In addition, you talk about too many long men while also being concerned that Delabar, Cecil, etc. are getting used too much. Nobody's thrown more innings than Redmond and Rogers, and they've needed those innings just to spare everyone else. Granted, Happ seems a bit superfluous, though even he has been useful at times (either by using him or by knowing he's available should the game go to extra innings). Ideally, I agree, you don't want to have an 8-man bullpen, but given the way things have gone lately, with both the starters and the key members of the bullpen, it's probably been more useful than having an extra guy on the bench (i.e., someone like Kratz, Kawasaki, or Tuiasasopo -- those guys aren't going to help much either).
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#285526) #
With respect to roster construction, I think it's at least fair to ask if Juan Francisco DHing against LHP is really a good idea (career OPS of 402 in 110 PA). If Moises Sierra isn't deserving of those AB, then maybe he shouldn't be on the roster. Maybe play a Pillar in LF against LHP and DH Cabrera.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#285527) #
Yeah, I'm more critical of the roster construction on the hitting side than the pitching side. Mostly because pitchers are harder to predict, which means guys like Rogers and Jeffress might still become something and I can understand not wanting to lose them. Pitchers also go down to injury more often so it's nice to have a surplus of them around. Hitters, though, have a more reliable track record, which is why I don't see much potential for Sierra. At this point, Pillar is looking like a much better option, on account of having more speed and being able to play CF.

As for yesterday's lineup, there were so many left-handed batters (Getz instead of Diaz, Francisco instead of Sierra) I wondered if Vargas had reverse splits. But a look at his history doesn't really show that. Both this year (601 vs 675 OPS) and over his career (697 vs 751), he's been more effective against LH batters (though those numbers include yesterday's performance, so I'm not sure what he was like heading into the game). Last year, though, he had a 789 OPS vs LHB and a 747 vs RHB, so perhaps that's what was driving the decision. Not a very well-founded decision if that's what caused it.
[ Reply to This ]
pubster - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#285529) #
The bullpen hurts my heart.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#285530) #
For some unexplained reason bullpen pitchers often alternate between good years and bad years. The Jays bullpen, certainly Cecil and Delabar, had very good years last year. For that reason I was worried about the bullpen coming into this year. I suggested that in our Blue Jays pre-season prediction thread. I also thought AA should have capitalized on value by trading someone like Delabar or Cecil at maximum value while you have backups in Wagner and Loup.

Having said that, I am sure the return of Janssen will help, and I also feel that this level of runs allowed will not continue, but I do not think this years bullpen will match 2013's numbers.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#285534) #
"....Point is, he's been pretty mediocre and inconsistent and at times this year, truly awful..."

Many pitchers (probably the majority, in fact) are inconsistent and sometimes awful.  You implied, sarcastically, that it was something to do with how Morrow manages his diabetes.  And by implication, you were suggesting that McGowan has nothing to learn from Morrow.  Very unfair comment.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#285536) #
"....Gibbons used his top three relievers, so blaming the loss on not having Wagner, who might be the number 5 guy in the bullpen, seems a bit much...."

I agree.

"In addition, you talk about too many long men while also being concerned that Delabar, Cecil, etc. are getting used too much. Nobody's thrown more innings than Redmond and Rogers, and they've needed those innings just to spare everyone else..."

I agree again.  And a couple more points:  if Rogers and Redmond are largely used in mop-up or low-leverage situations, it doesn't logically follow that Gibbons has "no confidence" in them.  It might mean that Gibbons has "less confidence" in them than he does in Delabar or Cecil, but it doesn't mean that a low-leverage reliever should be dumped from the roster.   Every bullpen has pitchers who tend to throw the lower-leverage situations.  It's obviously the corollary of having high-leverage pitchers.  It doesn't mean that you dump the lower-leverage pitcher and replace him with someone from the minors who might have even less confidence from the manager.  Similarly, there's an assumption that a long reliever is useless in a one-inning situation.  It might be true that Rogers or Redmond is not quite as good as Delabar or Cecil in a one-inning situation, but it doesn't necessarily or logically follow that they are ineffective in a one-inning situation.  (Rogers struck out the side in a recent one-inning appearance.)  The question is whether Rogers or Happ or Redmond are inferior in a one-inning situation to a Wagner or Stilson or some other minor-league option.  I'd say that's unproven, even if many of us have our personal opinions about it.
[ Reply to This ]
Super Bluto - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#285539) #

Many pitchers (probably the majority, in fact) are inconsistent and sometimes awful.  You implied, sarcastically, that it was something to do with how Morrow manages his diabetes.  And by implication, you were suggesting that McGowan has nothing to learn from Morrow.  Very unfair comment.

No man, you suggested that McGowan, like Morrow, would improve by following Morrow's insulin pumping protocol. All I'm saying is that if that's the kind of improvement you're looking for, then it hardly seems worth it.  Yes, I used sarcasm to make the point - a long, well established rhetorical device.  I'll write a note to your parents to explain it to them, if you want.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#285540) #
"....I'll write a note to your parents to explain it to them, if you want..."

Oh, I think we all understand your rhetorical devices.  I've always liked this quote from Cassandra Clare:  "Sarcasm is the last refuge of the imaginatively bankrupt."
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#285541) #
Gibbons, and apparently many here, seem to have too much faith in the bullpen.

Relievers are fickle things. They can go from great to awful in an instant. Delabar and Cecil were great last year after being pretty bad the year before, and are struggling now. Janssen is injured. Santos has always had control issues and has barely pitched the past couple of years. Happ and rogers have been mostly awful in recent years. Now even the steady loup is scuffling for the first time ever.

This doesn't mean they won't bounce back - but it does mean that you ease up on them a bit, and try to milk more out of your starters - especially in games where your starters are pitching well enough and nowhere near any pitch limit.

I understand that after last year people are scared that our starters will blow up at any minute, but the bottom line is that at the moment you shouod be just as scare of the rp blowing up as the sp.

Pulling the SP at 80-90 pitches, when they're doing well enough is just....cocky.

Cecil and Delabar have appeard in fully half our games already, and santos and rogers aren't far behind.


[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#285542) #
I think Gibbons has shown he has no confidence in using Redmond/Rogers/Happ in one inning pressure situations just by the fact he first went to Delabar last night when he was easily the most tired of the guys in the pen. Mix in the usage patterns and results (anything resembling high pressure the 3 have flopped) and one has to figure they are purely there for long relief.  To have 4 guys in the pen for long relief only seems folly to me.  2 should be more than enough - assign them to Morrow and McGowan and have the rest of the pen for 1-2 innings each.

I also think it was just so frustrating to see Delabar used when he was most likely tired.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#285543) #
Did anyone think that the double that led to McGowan being pulled should have been caught? It looked like Bautista and Rasmus both pulled up right at the end.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#285544) #
Similarly, there's an assumption that a long reliever is useless in a one-inning situation.

Yeah, people are maybe too fixated on the "long reliever" component. Sure, they can all go several innings but the real reason they're on the team is because they're the best quality relievers, five through eight, on the depth charts. It's a quality issue. If anything, their long-relieverness is an added feature. And even if they bring Wagner back and send Jenkins down, and even if Wagner's the #5 guy (he probably is in Gibbons' mind), the other guys are here because they're the best 6, 7 & 8 guys available. This isn't so much a roster construction issue as it is a quality issue. Once Janssen gets back, things should improve, but for now it's not the end of the world that they're carrying guys like Rogers as the last man in the bullpen. (Happ I'm less inclined to defend, though we haven't seen enough of the guy this year to really know.)

As an aside, can you match the 2014 xFIP with the reliever?

The relievers are Rogers, Redmond, and Wagner.

The xFIPs are 3.55, 4.11, 4.75

Well, the answer, from best to worst, is the same order I mentioned their names: Rogers, Redmond, Wagner. Now the FIP (which, if I recall correctly, doesn't normalize the HR/flyball rate, whereas xFIP does) tells a different story. Redmond and Wagner are in the low 3s, Rogers is 5.56. And these sample sizes are small so we can't make much of it anyway. But I think it is worth noting that even judging by this year's performance, there's the possibility that Rogers may not be pitching that badly. Redmond, too, though I think that's less surprising. And I'm also not sure that Wagner is the #5 man in the pen. My hunch is he probably is (based on last year's AAA stats) but I don't know.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#285545) #
To have 4 guys in the pen for long relief only seems folly to me.

This is an example of what I mean. They're not in the pen for long relief, they're in the pen for low-leverage situations. Sometimes these things coincide, of course, but the real reason they're in the bullpen is because they're the best we've got! However unfortunate that may be.
[ Reply to This ]
grjas - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#285546) #
Delabar and cecil have 13 appearances to date - the most on the jays- and 10 innings pitched. There are currently 39 other pitchers in the majors with at least 13 appearances. So they aren't out of line with many if their peers.

Except in performance.

Cecil's performance is the funniest. First 7 appearances an ERA of 0. Last 7 days- 32.4. Yeah it's still a small sample size. Hopefully just a bad week.
[ Reply to This ]
Super Bluto - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#285547) #
I've always liked this quote from Cassandra Clare:  "Sarcasm is the last refuge of the imaginatively bankrupt."

Famous children's author, right?
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#285549) #
I also think it was just so frustrating to see Delabar used when he was most likely tired.

I agree with the general sentiment -- Delabar, along with Cecil and Santos, need to be rested more than they have been. But I think you're extrapolating way too much when you say he was "most likely" tired in one particular instance, simply because he'd worked back-to-back days followed by a day off. (Prior to the back-to-back games, he'd had three consecutive days off.) For all we know, his arm felt great yesterday.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#285550) #
UZR/150 over +30 (ie: insanely good): Sierra (RF), Diaz (SS), Goins (SS)
UZR/150 over +10 (ie: extremely good): Reyes, Lawrie, Francisco (1B), Izturis, Diaz (2B)
UZR/150 over 0 (ie: solid): Gose, Sierra (LF), EE, Lind, Francisco (3B)
UZR/150 under -10 (poor): Rasmus, Cabrera (LF)
UZR/150 under -30 (super-ugly): Bautista (RF), Cabrera (CF), Bautista (CF), Kawasaki (2B)

Using this to understand the Getz-for-Goins decision, I'd guess what the Jays were thinking was that with Diaz providing excellent defence at 2B that's roughly similar to that of Goins (you don't have Goins' 2B numbers here but I assume they're in the "solid" or "extremely good" category), they might as well keep Diaz because of the better bat (245 wOBA vs 195 for Goins). With all the emphasis on improving the team's defence this year, I'm guessing they still plan to play Diaz more often than Getz. And then they can also take advantage of Getz's speed off the bench, or have him as a pinch-hitter for Diaz against RHPs. The latter could come in handy when they're facing the other team's closer and they've already used the rest of their bench.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#285551) #
Ah, I see how I missed Goins at 2B - he was listed twice in a row when sorting  by UZR/150 thus I glossed over the 2B part.  His SS #'s are 37.6 UZR/150 while at 2B it is 30.5.   Although I do question FanGraphs a bit when I check Goins lifetime figures - at 2B last year he was 33.1, this year 30.5 but it says lifetime is 'just' 28.9.  Weird.  At SS he was negative last year in just 10 innings, god like in 67 this year thus 29.0 lifetime.  366 1/3 innings total at 2B now, 77 at SS with insanely good numbers. Wonder how long those need to be maintained to mean much?  His offense though was so bad that he still has a negative WAR on the season at -0.1
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#285552) #
Paul D:

It did look like Rasmus pulled up at the end. I couldn't decide if the ball was catchable but he did look at Bautista and hold back.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#285553) #
Fascinating numbers on Goins. It's really too bad he can't hit.

And though you're right that he's at -0.1 WAR on FanGraphs, Baseball Reference has him in positive territory (0.2). Which goes to show how great those defensive numbers are. He's a 150/203/217 hitter who, at least to Baseball Reference, still provided better than replacement level performance.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#285554) #
I bet it drives the Jays nuts that they cannot get Goins to do something with that bat. All that fielding talent and not much you can do. Ideally keep him around and hope he can pull off an Ozzie Smith (from bad hitter to solid, but instead going from horrid to bad here).
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#285555) #
I couldn't decide if the ball was catchable but he did look at Bautista and hold back.

Bautista is an odd cat. So many things point to him being TOO aggressive. Defensively, he still sometimes gets in the center fielder's way. On the bases, he'll run into outs or get picked off. And on an emotional level, he's got a very short fuse.

Paradoxically, he has the capacity for patience, taking so many walks. And when you hear him speak, his answers seem calm and reasoned, not hyper.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#285556) #
It looks like they broke up "The game of the series" and are starting ventura tonight.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#285557) #
Dustin did nothing to lose his Starting job. 33 pitches in the second inning was mostly caused by defensive indifference and questionable umpiring. It was possible to have a clean inning otherwise. His stuff was good enough that with better defense he throws a complete game shutout on 100 pitches.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#285559) #
Lawrie has a sore back and will miss the game tonight.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#285560) #
Francisco 3B
Sierra DH

Wrong half of a platoon there.

[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#285561) #
Why does the Offense make every opposing pitcher look much much better than they really are?
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#285563) #
Bloody hell.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#285564) #
The Jays have now played one-sixth of the season and are 12-15.

Gotta pick up the pace if they want to make some noise this year.
[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#285565) #
On the bright side, Melky doesn't appear to be seriously injured. I was worried when he went down.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#285566) #
Well, it is nice to see Hutchison last 7 but sadly 6 would've been better in the end (2 runs in that 7th inning).  The offense scoring only 2 runs makes it very, very hard to win.  Even in 1993, the last WS win for those few here who don't know, the Jays were 5-15 when scoring just 2 runs.  1992 was similar with a 5-13 record when scoring twice.  1985 (the year they won 99, the franchise high) the Jays were 5-12 when scoring just 2 runs.

Basically, if the team scores 2 or less blame the offense.  If they allow 6 or more the team is 0-13 this year so those games blame the pitching.  3-5 runs scored or allowed? Those are the 'grrr' games to lose and the 'woohoo' to win.

[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#285567) #
Again!
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 30 2014 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#285568) #
When your ninth place hitter and your lead-off hitter reach base, with (please pay attention) no one out, and the #2, #3 and #4 of the lineup are due up, 0 for 3 is not acceptable.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#285570) #
And the vultures are circling.  MLB Trade Rumours has mention of an article by Griffin at the Star about how other ML clubs might be digging into Buehrle due to his contract (2014/2015 only thus short but long enough) and how it would free up a lot of cash ($19 mil next year) just in case the Jays fall out of it.  The Cubs, on the other hand, are watching Stroman carefully hoping to get him out of Toronto still.  Also mention that Steve Pearce (87 OPS+ lifetime) rejected a waiver claim to stay with Baltimore...not a big loss IMO...he felt he'd get more playing time there.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#285571) #
I wonder what you could get for Buehrle right now. If I were Alex Anthopoulos and I could get someone to take on his salary AND offer a decent prospect in return, I'd be tempted to do it. Let Stroman replace Buehrle in the rotation and try to put the cash you've saved to better use, either this year (through trade) or next (trade or free agent).
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#285572) #
Let's see where we're at in July. There isn't much point in thinking about how to dismantle the team right now. Major trades typically don't happen in May.

Bautista is obviously the big trade chip if the Jays eventually decide to do some serious rebuilding. I doubt that will happen, though, given Rogers' marketing (if not winning) imperatives.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#285573) #
Let's see where we're at in July.

You're probably right, Greenfrog. With Buehrle, I just wonder if we're at a sell-high moment.

As for Bautista, I don't know. The way he's swinging this year, you have to figure he'll still be very good next year, and hopefully the team still plans to contend next year. Even if this year doesn't go well, I don't think we need to go into full re-building mode. And I'm partial to the idea of keeping Bautista around for life anyway.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#285574) #
In light of the discussion on Goins' defence, I wonder if his absence already cost the Jays.

I'm just now watching the 7th inning of last night's game. Had already heard Wilner talking about the 2-run double and how Lawrie would've had it. But there was an earlier play at second base, with the runner trying to steal, in which Getz couldn't handle the short-hop from Navarro. The runner, Paredes, would've been out, which would've meant the 2nd out of the inning with nobody on. Don't know how good Goins is at the short-hop in particular, but you have to wonder how things might have worked out last night had he been on defense. Of course, that's ignoring Getz going 2-for-3 with a walk. Probably shouldn't ignore that.
[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#285575) #
Lawrie would have got that game-winning double. Diaz probably would have too. In retrospect, Diaz would have been a better choice at 3B last night, with Francisco at DH, and Sierra on the bench (and available to take over at LF for Cabrera).

Gibby was committed to fielding the best defensive team early in the season, and last night was example of how this catches up to you when you start compromising.

Sierra looks lost at the plate - the end could be near for him, especially with interleague games starting tomorrow. Maybe he'll get another couple of starts to if Melky is out for a few days, but he doesn't even seem close to starting to produce - he's been very aggressive with lots of swings & misses... and very little solid contact.

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#285576) #
If the Jays do have a poor 1rst half and start dumping what would it look like and what might happen?
Dump candidates (ie: big contracts)
  • Buehrle: $18 mil this year, $19 mil next - has value due to being off to a strong start
  • Reyes: $16 this, $22 in each of 2015/16/17 club option $22 in 2018. Slow start but good rep, Jays seem to love him though
  • Bautista: $14 mil this and next, $14 mil option in 2016, unlikely as that is a bargain contract still and he is a face of the franchise
  • Dickey: $12 this, next, and option in 2016, knuckleball makes him hard to trade
  • EE: $9 this, $10 next, $10 option in 2016 - very cheap if his bat gets going, unlikely.
  • Cabrera: $8 mil then free agent - if they are out of it and get anything of value then why not?
  • Morrow: $8 mil this, $10 mil option next - anyone else want in on the 'so much potential' train?
  • Lind: on option years, still can't hit LHP $7 mil this, $7.5 next, $8 2016 just $1 mil to buyout 2015
  • Rasmus: $7 mil this then free agent
  • Happ: $5.4 this $6.7 option next

Those are the big deals (well, Romero too but who'd take his $7.5 this year and next plus $600k buyout of his 2016 year).  Buehrle, Reyes, Bautista, EE, Cabrera, Rasmus are the tradeable ones (IE: someone would want them).  Morrow if he shows hope could be, Happ might be tradeable.  I suspect if the Jays are out of it in July that Cabrera and Rasmus would be on the table along with any pitcher on the staff outside of the kids.  If the Jays are in the thick of it though then we'd have to look at prospects.

Who steps in if someone goes?  Sierra/Gose/Pillar aren't impressive this  year (Pillar 669 OPS, Gose 659, and Sierra has forgotten which end of the bat to hold) thus making those outfield trades hard.  Rotation options are there in Stroman (might be here very soon), Sanchez (2.10 ERA in AA over 30 IP) and others (Lawrence in AA also has a 2.10 ERA in 30 IP, Hendriks  in AAA has a 1.25 ERA, Nolin in AAA 1.96, while lower minors has Boyd at 0.29 A+ and Norris 0.75 A+ and Graveman 0.89 in A/A+ are the standouts).  

Thus pitching is starting to build up some depth but offense...well...hrm...

[ Reply to This ]
timpinder - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#285577) #

I believe that the Jays' roster and lineup management resulted in the loss yesterday.  To me, the obvious choice with a Lawrie injury would be to have Diaz at 3B, Francisco at DH, and Sierra on the bench.  I think that if Gibbons puts in that lineup two runs are saved (the Francisco "ole" at 3B resulting in a 2-run double) and perhaps even a run is scored for the Jays, as Sierra just whiffed away helplessly with runners in scoring position.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems so obvious to me:

Release Sierra and Rogers, option Jenkins.

McGowan to pen (he can join Happ and Redmond in going multiple innings) and replace his spot in the rotation with Stroman.

Mastroianni up (he can pinch run and actually play CF!)

Kratz or Tuiasosopo to platoon with Francisco/Lind until a more appropriate platoon can be found.

When Janssen returns you can decide then who to release.  Personally I'd prefer Wagner to Redmond right now as well, especially with Happ and McGowan both able to go multiple innings

 

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#285578) #
How bad is Sierra's season so far?  145 is his OPS...that's right, his OPS would be terrible as a batting average.  He has as many strikeouts (9) as hits (2) + walks (1) + RBI (2) + R (2) + SB (0) + total bases (2) plus has grounded into a double play just to add more negatives.  His BR WAR is -0.6 already, FanGraphs -0.5  providing -$2.7 million in "value".  It really is time to send him down and risk someone else getting him for nothing at this point.  It is hard to imagine anyone hitting worse.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#285579) #
Cracka & Timpinder, You make a good point about last night's line-up and defensive arrangement. Maybe Gibbons just needed to see Francisco once at third to come to the same conclusion. According to a tweet from Barry Davis, Gibbons was considering (prior to last night's game) playing Lawrie at 2B and Francisco at 3B in the upcoming NL series. We'll see if he now scuppers that plan.

There's also always the option of playing Bautista at 3rd in situations such as last night or in NL parks. I may be in the minority but I never would've moved him off 3B to begin with. He'd provide incredible production from that position.
[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#285580) #
Sierra DFA'd, Diaz demoted. Gose & Tolleson called up.

A bit surprised to see Gose, since he doesn't help the shortage of RH bats. But at least he brings some defence.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#285581) #
I understand Gose coming up, bone bruises like Melky has can take a few days to get better. I assume the Tolleson for Diaz switch is to get more offense in the lineup. Or maybe Lawrie's back will keep him out for a few more days and they don't want to see Francisco at third again.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#285582) #

John, if this season goes south in a hurry for the Jays, I'm a huge proponent of trading some of the larger contracts. Teams overpay at the trade deadline, generally speaking, so it would be wise to try to move some of the players (Of course if a good deal somes along).

Players/contracts I would move: Bautista, Buehrle, Dicky, Happ (No chance anyone takes him) and Lind.

Keeping: Reyes, EE, Cabrera and Rasmus. I keep Rasmus because I'm not sold on Gose and Davis/Pompey are a few years away from being impacts.

Is AA the right guy to make these deals? I don't know. If he does trade Dickey, does he get the same return in a high end pitching prospect plus a top 30 positional prospect? Probably not *insert sad face here...

[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#285583) #
I don't see any way Rasmus is kept beyond this season no matter the team position. No way, we should ever give him a long term contract. He should have been dealt last July when he was hot.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#285584) #

And who is a better replacement for Rasmus?

Inhouse it doesn't cost you anything but Gose can't hit. Going the FA route, you will be paying the same amount of money you would pay Rasmus.

I think he's kept, qualified and hope for the Comp Pick. At age 28, when a FA, he'll get someone to give him a nice contract.

[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#285585) #
On the Jonah Keri podcast a week or two ago, Anthopoulos seemed to be saying he hoped to extend Rasmus at some point this year and that Rasmus would be open to it. That's kind of reading between the lines, but that was my impression of it. Just guessing here, but I imagine that Anthopoulos expects this season's numbers to look a little worse for Rasmus, given his high BABIP last year, and that he'd prefer to use this year's numbers to negotiate an extension than last year's numbers. But I don't know -- it could also be that the money just isn't available for an extension.
[ Reply to This ]
CeeBee - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#285586) #
I'm fine with giving Gose a chance. Let him prove he belongs in the majors and the Rasmus decision will become clearer.
[ Reply to This ]
timpinder - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#285587) #
I'm also in agreement with letting Rasmus walk (assuming he rejects a qualifying offer), and going with a Gose/Pillar platoon as a stopgap measure until hopefully Pompey is ready.  I'd prefer the Jays extend Melky for two or three years.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#285588) #
The big issue with any house clearing is who plays instead.

Pitching we have depth now - Stroman, Hendriks, Nolin, Sanchez, Lawrence and McGuire all could be ready this year (at AA/AAA and doing well right now) and that isn't getting into Romero, Happ, Redmond, Rogers, ...

Hitting...er...uhm.... yeah.  Gose/Sierra/Pillar were the guys to replace Rasmus and Cabrera next year but instead they'll be lucky to be on the 40 man it seems.  Jimenez might be ready to catch next year, Crouse is doing well in AA (889 OPS) but isn't a big prospect (746 lifetime minor league OPS).  I just don't see any real prospects in the high minors on offense.

So basically Rasmus is almost a must sign for 2015 as there really aren't that many decent options, unless Cabrera resigns and Gose/Pillar are a decent platoon in CF. Mastroianni might be a platoon partner too but no matter how you cut it we need Gose to hit.

[ Reply to This ]
timpinder - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#285589) #

I'd be OK with Gose hitting sub .250 as long as his OBP was .330+ and he was playing solid defense and stealing the odd base.

If the Jays did clean house (complete hypothetical at this point) you have to assume that ready or near ready players would be coming the other way, essentially filling the voids left by the departing players.  A total hypothetical for argument sake would be something like Bautista leaving and Oscar Taveras returning, or EE leaving with Polanco coming back. 

Regardless, the Jays need to extend one of Rasmus or Cabrera (my preference is for Cabrera), and fill holes in the OF and 2B next year.  If Gose/Pillar can hold the fort until Pompey is ready then 2B becomes the priority.  Other than that they're set through 2016.

I wonder what the Mariners are asking in return for Franklin. 

[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#285590) #
The Jays went 2 for 14 with RISP and had 12 LOB and the focus this morning are the compromises Gibbons made on defense?
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#285591) #
I'm glad to see a decision being finally made on an out of options' asset, because that's what Sierra is. Now we'll see who else will agree. Past time to start making decisions on out of option players. Casey Janssen is returning this month as is Adam Lind.

Right now this is "we'll be see what we have" before any trades get proposed or more final decisions get made. There are useful pieces in AAA Buffalo, it would be nice to see who fits.

A Chicago Cub's Scout watched Stroman's last Start, due diligence or something more? I think it's known you can have one, not both, but I could be wrong. Acquiring another Starter is not a bad thing, right now. It would make decisions on Morrow and McGowan easier.

The Bullpen is an issue as the right people aren't there yet. Casey Janssen might still be 7-10-14 days away. He's one, I'll keep/re-sign? I'd hope Santos pitches better, so I can trade him as he'll have good value. I keep Delabar because he's really good and cheap. (And that's two.) Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup are anytime, anywhere pitches who continually get the job done, despite recent struggles. (And that's four.) I think Dustin McGowan makes the Bullpen better when he's in it. Neil Wagner pitches very well, and that's well enough to be here. I think Chad Jenkins pitches well enough to be here. I cannot see keeping Happ, Rogers and Redmond, one 6th Starter/Long Relief is enough. And having eight relievers when you don't use your long men right is ridiculous. (And somewhere that makes seven.)
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#285592) #
You need to re-sign one of Melky Cabrera or Colby Rasmus. If you get top value back from a trade of Bautista or Rasmus, I'd say do it. If Bautista goes, you need to re-sign both Cabrera and Rasmus.

If E.E returns top value, Adam Lind's option is picked up and Juan Francisco is kept. That will be enough to work for another year. And so far that clears $20.0 MM.

Now I'm not saying A.A. must do it. It's just that changing the culture in the Clubhouse could be drastic.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#285593) #
2 for 14 with RISP is secondary.  Dumb luck, not 'clutch', determines that.  Next game they could go 6-14 with the exact same players.  The choice of players to use is a far bigger factor than how many hits they got in a game with runners in scoring position.  The defensive compromises are something that has a predictable effect and needs to be watched.

For offense by sOPS+ (OPS+ vs all others at the same position in the league, 100 = average, above 100 is above average, sub 100 is below average)...
Above average: LF/RF/CA - 154/147/116, all nice numbers
Average: 1B/CF - 99/98 - nothing to write home about, nothing to worry about either
Below: DH/3B/2B - 80/78/73 - concerning here, but 2B is well known and we all think Lawrie will hit soon.  DH is hurt by Sierra's 0-12, Encarnacion's 2-16 and Navarro's 2 for 11.  Lind/Francisco/Bautista all have done well as DH's.
Extremely bad: SS - 54 - ugh.  A 10 sOPS+ by Goins kills it, but the 66 from Diaz and 70 from Reyes don't help.  Reyes really needs to step it up.

Good news is that 3 of the 4 weak slots should self correct (DH/3B/SS) while the 2 average slots (1B/CF) should also improve.  2B though... we all knew it would be bad and Goins 35 sOPS+ there was ugly. Luckily outside of Diaz the rest at 2B had a sOPS+ of 89 or better and that would be a drastic improvement from last year's final 57 figure.

By position 2013 vs 2014
CA: 66 - 116
1B: 124 - 99 ... ouch
2B: 57 - 73 ... yes, an improvement despite Goins
3B: 103 - 78
SS: 116 - 54 ... yikes
LF: 83 - 154
CF: 110 - 98
RF: 122 - 147
DH: 114 - 80 ... yikes again

So big improvements (20+ points) at CA, LF, RF.  Big drops at 1B, 3B, SS, DH.  Reasonably stable at 2B, CF (one up, one down).

Should be interesting to look at that again in a month or so.
[ Reply to This ]
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#285594) #
I expect the Blue Jays will lose a lot of money this year. Last year, even with the huge spike of interest and attendance, they had the second highest operating loss in the majors. With a decline in both attendance and interest this year, that loss should increase considerably and it makes no sense to be paying the kind of team salary the Blue Jays are paying and losing that kind of money, for a last place team. I know some people think that earnings reports are all a lie, but that's not very likely.

I think the players to not move, are Bautista (barring a bully offer), Encarnacion (ditto), and Hutchison. Otherwise, I hope to see a lot of movement this summer. The idea that the team was going to trade itself from nowhere to contention in the 2012/2013 offseason, and blot out the PR disaster of Farrell leaving and taking the coaches with him, always seemed to me to be somewhat far-fetched. I remember an episode of West Wing where the President decides to fund the cure to cancer, and near the end Josh points out to viewers that this is his reaction to having been caught lying about his own health. This stab at out-of-the-blue competitiveness always had that air of unreality to it for me.

I think the Blue Jays still have enough goodwill, if barely, with their fan base for a proper rebuild. I think that rebuild was underway before the Miami and New York trades, and while it's going to be harder now with the rule changes for accumulating draft picks, they are still not badly positioned.
[ Reply to This ]
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#285595) #
A Chicago Cub's Scout watched Stroman's last Start, due diligence or something more? I think it's known you can have one, not both, but I could be wrong. Acquiring another Starter is not a bad thing, right now. It would make decisions on Morrow and McGowan easier.

I'm not high on Stroman at all but I think trading 6 potential years of him for Samardzija, who has 4 years of service time, would be insane. Toronto is not one pitcher away from the playoffs.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#285596) #
Like most of you I am not happy with how the season has gone so far, but we are just 27 games in and no team in the AL East has separated themselves from the pack. I think the normal first decision point for a team comes after 40 games. There is still time for the Jays to start clicking on all cylinders.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#285598) #
Also, the Jays have the best run differential in the AL East as well.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#285599) #
2 for 14 with RISP is secondary. Dumb luck, not 'clutch', determines that. Next game they could go 6-14 with the exact same players.

Yeah, the manager can control the lineup and who plays where. He can't control batting average with RISP. That's down to luck and there's no use getting worked up about it.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#285600) #
2 for 14 with RISP is secondary. Dumb luck, not 'clutch', determines that.

It is most certainly not secondary when it comes to determining the actual underlying reason for the results of the game last night. I am not attempting to predict the "cluthiness" of the team going forward - this was about direct contributing factors to the loss last night. Focusing on one defensive play that may have kept the game tied as opposed to the continual failure of the offense to contribute enough for a victory is short sighted in my opinion and a convenient way to absolve the players from any responsibility for their results.

[ Reply to This ]
Dr B - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#285601) #
Yeah, the manager can control the lineup and who plays where. He can't control batting average with RISP.

Very true, but to be fair to Hodgie, that luck probably had a far greater effect on the game than the lineup.

And as an asided (not aimed at TUIB) one should also bear sample sizes in mind when evaluating lineups and defenses.



[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#285602) #
Rajai Davis, 2014: 81 PAs, 333/395/444

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#285604) #
When it comes to operating losses I always reference people to one of Paul Beeston's first public statements where he said "I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss, and I can get every national accounting firm to agree with me".

The Forbes article has the Minnesota Twins as having more operating revenue than the Jays ($221 mil vs $218) despite the much, much larger TV market the Jays have, and the higher attendance the Jays had.  That just doesn't add up.  I find it very hard to believe the Jays have been a drain on Rogers profits the past few years especially factoring in the 500k viewers per game which other clubs (outside of the Yankees) can only dream of.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#285605) #
The Blue Jays have the second, or perhaps first, best ratings of any team in baseball. There's simply no way that Rogers as a corporate entity is losing money on them (if there is, sell them and watch Bell/TSN jump for joy to shell out half a billion on them).
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#285607) #
When calculating Profit/Loss statements you can make them say absolutely anything you want them to. Any good Accountant will tell you so.

Ticket Sales will be included in calculating profits/losses. Will Concessions/Programs/Souvenirs be included? They don't have to be because the Team doesn't own it's Stadium, a Parent Company owns both. League TV revenues don't go to the Team, they go to the Owner(s) of the team. The same applies for local TV package. Only Ticket Sales need to be included, and that's how you get a huge loss.

Normally all of the above is included, but Local TV package can be anything the Owners(the broadcasters/media rights) want them to be.

MLB TV Package: approx. $55.0 MM;
Local TV Package (at fair market value): approx.: $80.0 - $100.0 MM;
Ticket Sales (Approx. $25.00 x 2.5 million fans): $62.5 MM;
Concessions (approx. equal to Ticket Sales): $62.5 MM;
Programs/Souvenirs (1/2 to 2x Ticket Sales): $31.25 - $125.0 MM.

How I get the numbers - basic calculation on how to figure what any sports team earns - from a long, long time ago sports show, I think during an Expo rain delay.
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#285609) #
J.A. Happ's going to start on Monday in Philadelphia. So they've ended the 8-man bullpen by creating a 6-man rotation.
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#285610) #
Maybe they're just trying to get Happ's potent bat in the lineup.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#285612) #
In Happ's career pitching at Citizen's Bank park, opponents have hit 267/347/437 against him. Which is about average for him (in his career overall, opponents have hit 253/332/420 against him).
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#285613) #
The Phillies do have a very lefty-heavy lineup.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#285614) #
Juan Francisco has been quite a nifty pickup as injury insurance for Lind. He has a career 98 OPS+ and at 27 years old, he's squarely in his prime. He also fits in nicely in Toronto, where he can primarily DH. And at $1.35M, the price is right.

Looking around MLB, Ervin Santana had another QS tonight. His season line so far:

3-0, 2.41, 33.2 IP, 27 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 36 K

And Scott Kazmir:

4-0, 2.11, 38.1 IP, 29 H, 1 HR, 7 BB, 35 K

Pretty good early returns on their (very modest) investments for Atlanta and Oakland.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#285616) #
Francisco is exactly the type of available hitter that made me believe the team was best off clearing Lind's salary off the books and using the $ to target a 2B or some pitching this offseason.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, May 01 2014 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#285617) #
Well, fortunately the Jays opted not to sign Ibanez (157/231/313), who was one of the LH bats proposed as a way of saving money in lieu of keeping Lind (324/465/500).

Also, Lind, who has looked great at the plate this year, is only making $7M. Replacing him with a $2M player (thereby saving the Jays $5M) wouldn't have come close to freeing up enough money for even a bargain SP like Santana, Kazmir, Burnett, Hudson or Colon.

Without more, $5M might have allowed the Jays to sign Capuano and Brian Roberts - something like that.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#285618) #
Can't say I recall anyone suggesting Ibanez.

Lind has looked great at the plate this year in left than half the Jays games, because that's who he is - somebody who hits RHP well but can't hit LHP or be counted on to play a full season.

We don't know what the Jays could've done with the savings, or what they could have gotten for Lind. If he had value, a creative GM could've packaged him with say a Happ or Morrow in order to clear salary for a better player.
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#285619) #
Without getting into the merits of moving or keeping Lind, clearing $5 million in salary likely would have allowed the Jays to move more aggressively on Santana, instead of having to scrape for coins under the cushions and beg their current players for a loan. Any number of scenarios can be conjured up when you start imagining alternate histories, but it isn't far-fetched to think a few extra shekels being offered even a few days earlier would have had Santana signed, sealed and delivered before the Braves were struck with the injury bug.
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#285620) #
With McGowan's decent last start, Stroman almost ready and J.A. Happ's general dickishness about not starting, my guess is that the jays are showcasing him with a start against Philadelphia - that AA may be finally admitting his folly with that acquisition is good news. Hopefully Happ has a good start and we can waive goodbye.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#285621) #
I actually remember the Lind debate pretty well. In the Sept. 6 thread last year, I asked:

So, let's be clear: you're recommending that the Jays pick up Lind's option, then trade him for whatever they can get for him (perhaps a reliever or two or a back-end starter or an OK prospect or two), then sign someone like Ibanez, Chavez or Overbay on a one-year deal to more or less replace his production, and use the $4M or so saved towards other needs?

To which 92-93 responded:

It's where I'd start, yes.

Nothing wrong with that strategy, as long as you pick the right substitute player and the money saved allows you to meaningfully improve your roster. This year the Halos are giving Ibanez $2.75m and he's been -0.4 fWAR so far (it's early, of course).
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#285623) #
For frustrating... I went to check how Chavez was doing vs Lind and I accidentally clicked on Jesse Chavez.  The Jays sold him to the A's in 2012.  This year in 6 starts he has a 1.89 ERA over 38 IP 0.7 HR/9 1.9 BB/9 9.7 K/9.  Ouch.

Eric Chavez (who I wanted to check) is hitting 219/286/438 for Arizona at 3B with just 35 PA ($3.5 mil).   Overbay is in Milwaukee hitting 255/352/362 in 54 PA for $1.5 mil.  Neither seems a great choice right now.

[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#285624) #
Performance aside, Eric Chavez makes Lind look like the second coming of Cal Ripken. That guy is held together with staples and duct tape.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#285625) #
That's actually exactly how I remembered the conversation occurring, greenfrog. Not sure why you're using the player you yourself suggested to attack the logic, though.

I continue to maintain this would have been a better roster if AA shipped Lind out for value and used that $ to improve the roster elsewhere. I never professed to know the best way to do that, because I'm not a scout and didn't have a good handle on all the available mediocre LH bats. I do see that Chavez and Overbay are hitting nicely vs. RHP, though!
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#285626) #
"Rajai Davis, 2014: 81 PAs, 333/395/444"

Heck, one could easily argue that Rajai himself would've been a much better investment for this roster than Lind.
[ Reply to This ]
Bid - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#285628) #
would someone please refresh my memory...why is Rajai not here anymore?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#285629) #
$5m for a shortend platoon 4th OF that can't play defense, with a career ~.700ops, whose only asset is his aging 33yr old legs is probably a worse investment than one year $7m 30yr old decent defensive longend platoon 1B with a career ~.800ops coming off an .850+ season with two similarly priced club options left.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#285633) #
If Rajai Davis can't play defense, Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera are practically cripples.

I don't think people appreciate just how bad it is in terms of roster construction having to carry a guy who can't field, run, or hit lefties as your DH. Oh yeah, he also can't stay healthy.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#285634) #
Career UZR/150

As RF

Cabrera 595.2in, +3.5
Davis 670.1in, -1.5
Bautista 4619.0in, -2.2


As CF

Davis 3209.2in, -0.1
Cabrera 4584.1in, -7.5
Bautista 524.2in, -38.9


As LF

Cabrera 3651.1in, -4.0
Davis 1782.0in, -10.0
Bautista 410.0in, -10.6


Davis hasn't been any better than them in the corners, but does seem the most capable in cf...though he hasn't played there much the past 3 years (only 157in since 2011). The last time he played there regularly he was awful...-18.4 in 650in in 2011, -17.7 in 680in in 2010.

Davis wouldn't be awful to have, but only as a lefty masher off the bench....and he had no interest in being a bench player again. I still think Pillar will end up a better fit for us despite his awful start to the year.



Lind is a capable defender at 1B, not a liability there at all like an Ortiz or Butler. And he's a career .850+ ops bat vRHP, and has been again this season and last. 500pa of .850ops and decent 1B defense is well worth $7m.




[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#285635) #
Kratz up, Jenkins down. So 6 man bullpen and 3 catchers, at least through Happ's start.
[ Reply to This ]
Ryan Day - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#285636) #
And the Jays will be playing one of the best third baseman in baseball out of position tonight.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#285638) #
92-93, if you go up a couple of posts in the same Sept, 6, 2013 thread, you'll see quite clearly that you yourself previously mentioned Ibanez (detailing his 2013 stats as well as those of several other players) as the type of player who could be a useful cheap replacement for Lind.

Lind managed to stay pretty healthy last year. I suspect it was overuse (because of lack of positional player depth) plus very cold weather that pushed him over the edge this April.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#285639) #
I haven't missed much the past week, it seems.  Just a few bullpen collapses and some roster moves.  I left last Thursday night with Drew Hutchison mowing them down and Dioner Navarro and Colby Rasmus homering, and was quite surprised when I checked a few days later to see that the Jays had lost 4 in a row.  It wasn't much of a week.  Notwithstanding all that, the club's strengths and weaknesses are about as advertised.  Actually, the start of the season has been a positive because the news on the farm has been so good.

So, no panic recommended.  Instead, I look forward to the day not so long off, when the rotation is Dickey, Hutchison, Buehrle, Stroman and Morrow/McGowan (could they be so bold as to tandem them?), and Janssen is back.  And, much as I was right that they needed a second baseman, Mark Ellis (so far) would not have been an improvement...

[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 02 2014 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#285643) #
And the Jays will be playing one of the best third baseman in baseball out of position tonight.

Did Lawrie spend any time at 2B in Spring Training? I like the idea of finding out how well he can handle the position, but Spring Training seems to be the time to really try these things out.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Saturday, May 03 2014 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#285673) #
I enjoyed reading that thread greenfrog, because so many of us were so right about this Jays management/roster. This particular response by you brought a smile to my face:

"If the plan is to scrap Lind, use the few million dollars saved by replacing him with someone like Overbay, Ibanez or someone similar in the hope that those few million dollars could play a significant role in addressing the team's starting pitching and catching needs (I assume you believe Goins, career minor-league OPS 706, should be the starting 2B in 2013), then the team has a much bigger problem than the one under discussion here."

Indeed, the team DID have a much bigger problem than the one under discussion, and there were legitimate reasons to defend an Adam Lind trade in order to free up a few million dollars the team clearly did not have to spend to this winter.
[ Reply to This ]
Jays at Kansas City - Series Thread | 159 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.