Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Orioles at Jays

This week is AL east week for the Jays, Baltimore for three followed by the Red Sox. The Jays and Orioles take up from where they left off nine days ago when the Jays won the series 2-1. In that series Dustin McGowan and Mark Buehrle got the wins while Todd Redmond took the loss in a game started by Drew Hutchison. Two of the three starters in that series for both teams will start again this week.

Tuesday

Miguel Gonzalez, 1-1, 6.28 ERA vs. RA Dickey, 1-3, 6.26 ERA

The ERA's are almost identicial. Dickey will be back in the RC trying to find the magic touch with the knuckleball. According to Fangraphs live scorecard the Jays have a 60% chance to win this game.

Wednesday

Chris Tillman, 2-1, 1.71 ERA vs. Dustin McGowan, 1-1, 4.85 ERA

The innings are starting to mount now for Dustin McGowan so it will be interesting to see whether he can maintain his velocity and sharpen his pitches. Although the Jays did beat Tillman in Baltimore this will be a tough test against the Orioles opening day starter.

Thursday

Bud Norris, 0-2, 4.42 vs. Drew Hutchison, 1-1, 3.60

Norris pitched well against the Jays last time the met, can he do it twice in a row? Hutchison has been improving, particularly with his command, can that continue?

Compared to nine days ago the Jays have Jose Reyes back but Adam Lind is on the DL. Manny machado is still missing for the Orioles, he is expected back around May 1. JJ Hardy is day-to-day. The bubbling issue for the Jays is bullpen usage, or over-usage. Can these three starters give the Jays 21 innings? It is probably doubtful, a complete game from Dickey is probably the first necessary step.

Posted by Gerry on Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 10:59 AM EDT.

Orioles at Jays - Series Thread | 114 comments | Create New Account

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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#285127) #

When you start a "clean" inning, you face normal pressure.
When you start a "dirty" inning, you face higher presuures.
What's a "dirty" inning? One with someone or someone's already on base.
When in the game and the score can increase those pressures.

High usage at normal pressure is not considered over-use, just unwise.
High usage at more than normal pressure might be over-use, that's serious.
High usage at high pressure is over-use, and that's dangerous.

I've got a good idea who's over-used, but it up to each of us to decide because it's that subjective.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#285128) #

This week is gonna go a long way in determining whether this team is worth investing in as a fan this year.

And maybe investing in as an owner of the team, too.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#285135) #

B-R Preview of the game shows the reliever usage...

Santos: used 3 of past 7 days, pitch counts over those 7 days (yesterday first) 0-0-0-24-16-0-16 - should be ready for today, needs map of strike zone
Cecil: 4 times in past 7 days, 0-7-0-14-2-0-20...basically he is in there every other day but has reasonably low pitch counts
Delabar: 3 of past 7 days, 0-0-0-11-15-0-4... overdue for an appearance
Loup: 3 of past 7 days, 0-29-0-0-19-0-23... when in he throws a lot of pitches, ideally gets today off
Wagner: 4 of past 7 days, 0-10-0-10-14-0-19 ... Gibbons loves Wagner, bet on him being in there today
Happ: 2 of past 7 days, 0-10-0-0-26-0-0 ... not used much, figure he is saved for extras or long relief (low pressure) right now
Redmond: 1 of past 7 days, 0-0-0-0-68-0-0 ... long man only, just that extra inning game was high pressure (3 1/3 into extras)
Rogers: 1 of past 7 days, 0-0-35-0-0-0-0 ... doubt he'll be used unless deep into extras, #8 man in the pen.

Leverage Index when entering game for the relievers...
Highly Trusted: Santos: 2.0, Loup/Wagner 1.5, Cecil 1.4
Trusted: Delabar 1.0, Happ 0.7, Redmond 0.7
Not Trusted: Rogers 0.3, Jeffress 0.1 (who is, of course, gone)

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#285139) #

How much could it possibly cost to bring the Pirates pitching coach to Toronto? Whatever it is I am becoming increasingly convinced that he would be worth it. Looking an awful lot like the next Dave Duncan.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#285140) #

Love that leverage distribution. I don't like his quick SP hook this year but i love the way gibbons uses relievers in general.

You're right that he seems to love wagner (makes me a bit nervous though), which only makes it stranger that he was left off in favor of jeffress.

Its also clear that he doesn't like rogers....so much so that it unfortunately makes it look like the 8 man pen isn't a strategy decision at all, but that gibbons is being forced to keep him on the roster.

Paul D - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#285146) #

Jays claim Darin Mastroianni from the Twins, send him to Buffalo.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#285147) #

I like adding a versatile, right hand hitting OF like Mastroianni to the mix. But does this mean anything about Rasmus' health?

Paul D - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#285148) #

Maybe, maybe not. Could just be that they want some depth, and/or they're souring on Sierra. If Sierra can't hit, why not have Mastroianni on the team, at least he can play CF, pinch run, and spell Rasmus against a LHP every now and again.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#285149) #

I think it just means the Jays want to have a backup who can actually play centre field - and all the better if he's a RH-hitter who can give Rasmus a day off vs LHP, with bonus points for being a solid baserunner.

I suspect the Jays may have missed out on Mastroianni's period of usefulness, but it's worth a shot to see if he can contribute.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#285150) #

The thing is, if they are replacing Sierra then why not just DFA him rather than Wilson?

I guess it might be a warning shot to Sierra and a "show me" to Mastro.

Actually the more that I think about it the more I like this move.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#285153) #

Mastroianni is a good addition. He has a career .400 OBP against LHP in the minors and .328 in the majors, and he plays centerfield and he runs well. That's the profile of someone they need on their bench.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#285154) #

How many innings a Starter pitches is not relavent. How many runs he gives up is. At some point and time a Starter will be pulled whether it's 1st inning or last inning. What he leaves for the team to overcome matters.

Sometimes a Starter has a decent to very good start (3 runs or less). Offense should be good enough to win all these games.
Sometimes a Starter has an indifferent game (4 runs). The Offense should be good enough to win most of these games.
Sometimes a Starter has an unfavorable game (5-6 runs). The Offense should be good enough to win some of these games (more than a few).
Sometime a Starter doesn't have it (7 or more runs). The Offense will rarely win these games, but they should win.

To the Relief, how many innings a Starter pitches is totally relavent. The more they have to pitch the less likely they'll be scoreless innings. Relievers are considered very good if 3 out of every 4 (75%) appearances are successful. Most of Toronto's Bullpen is better than this.
The more innings the Relief must pitch, the more Relievers pitch. Eventually they will give up one or more runs. That's when winning games gets harder. Long men are in the Bullpen for a reason and that's to get the game to the 7th or past the 9th.

The Darin Masteoianni claim and subsequent DFA Kenny Wilson is strictly based on who can play up here. Kenny might clear, but he's still a distance away. Darin has some MLB time and can play CF well if needed. This is more about backup than it it about Sierra.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#285156) #

I agree that this appears to be a depth move. Sierra has done very poorly thus far and might not pick it up. It's been 4 days since he played last (April 18th) and I suspect Gibbons has zero confidence in him. Negative WPA in all but one game (8 played) and that game was a 0.001 (as little positive as possible). Lifetime he has had 302 PA and hit 239/301/384 for an 87 OPS+ - OK if he could play CF or had great speed but he doesn't have either, just a strong arm.

Mastroianni has 274 PA overall hitting 220/288/295 for a 63 OPS+, but at least can play CF and has speed (24-4 SB-CS). In his 7 games his WPA was positive twice, 0 twice, and negative 3 times.

Neither is really a solution. Both are doing poorly as hitters and don't show signs of changing that. Mastroianni can play defense and steal a base though which has value. I suspect the Jays will try to demote Sierra soon and right now are looking for endurable alternatives if he is claimed.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#285157) #

If you go to www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mastrda01.shtml you will find Darin listed as Outfielder, but if you click on minors he's listed as Centerfielder and Second Baseman. I'm not saving it's important but...

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#285158) #

MLB Trade Rumors live chat: response to trading Melky, 2:15 and 2:16.
"Melky should have plenty of trade value if he's healthy. His salary isn't overly prohibitive and he's a productive switch-hitter. A decent young pitcher isn't an unreasonable expectation for him, nah.

ayjackson - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#285160) #

I can't remember who our resident President of the Mastroianni Fan Club was, but that will be at least one happy with the move. I'm happy that I haven't forgotten how to spell his name. The real test comes when Rzep comes back.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#285161) #

the Pirates pitching coach

That would be Ray Searage, of course. Unlike Dave Duncan, who remains sui generis, Searage actually was a pitcher. He was a LOOGY back in the 1980s, before Tony LaRussa more or less invented the concept. Searage never actually played for LaRussa - the White Sox had fired Tony about three weeks before Searage joined the team in 1986 - but he did begin his coaching career working, ultimately, for LaRussa and Duncan in The St Louis organization.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#285162) #

How many innings a Starter pitches is not relavent [sic]. How many runs he gives up is.

Of course, if you have two pitchers who each gave up 4 runs, the fact that one of them pitched one inning and one of them pitched nine might be of some passing interest.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#285163) #

J.A. Happ allowed 53 runs in 2013. Clayton Kershaw allowed 55. Who you gonna call?

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#285164) #

I've been saying this for a while now, but something looks wrong with Lawrie's mechanics at the plate. I really would like to hear a scouting report on what the issue(s) is. Yes, it's April, but his wRC+ going into tonight's game was 16.

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#285165) #

Dickey looks sharp tonight.

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#285166) #

Unfortunate team defense for the Jays in the 6th.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#285167) #

good job by gibber keeping dickey in there with the bases loaded, even though he looked pooched.

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#285168) #

Dickey versus the RH-hitting rookie with the bases loaded was a good matchup.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#285169) #

Another perfectly timed pull of the starting pitcher by John Gibbons, despite whatever Dickey's pitch count is.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#285170) #

Thoroughly inexpert opinion from me. Lawrie's mechanics looked horrific on that home run cut.

scottt - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#285171) #

Meek didn't look very strong tonight.

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#285172) #

It's amazing to what extent Cecil has turned his career around, from thoroughly mediocre SP to elite LH reliever. If he keeps going like this, he's going to be an All-Star again. He and Loup are two of the best LH relievers in the league.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#285173) #

Nothing better than 3 run homers against the Orioles.

Juan Francisco looks perfectly fine up there. It's a good lineup now against RHPs., with Reyes back and Sierra out of the lineup. It would have been nice to have given some of the run support to Dickey early, but you can't complain about 9 runs one way or the other.

scottt - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#285174) #

6 run lead to close? I would have put money down it would be Rogers Time.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#285175) #

I don't understand Dickey coming out to pitch the 7th. Most of his pitch count came in the 6th. How effective could he be?
The only time Dickey should pitch beyond the sixth is if the first six were scoreless. He always hits the wall and 3-4 runs score. Why to both?

rfan8 - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#285176) #

Lawrie's mechanics have looked awful all year. It looks like he's mainly swinging with his arms. I'm still waiting for him to 1) use his legs and 2) clear his hips so he can pull the ball.

Thomas - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#285177) #

That's probably because he played some 2B in the minors, but has not played there in the majors.

However, he's only played 5 games there since the beginning of 2010. I'm not saying it's important but....

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 22 2014 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#285178) #

For the small-minded and those who will not think:
I'm not saying it's important but, A.A. might.

hypobole - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#285179) #

Maybe I'm small minded, but I will go out on a limb to guess AA thinks it's 100% unimportant. You may have forgotten last years fielding fiascos, but I guarantee AA hasn't.

Mastro was moved off 2nd because he couldn't play the position competently, hasn't played it in years and would have to be Miguel Cabrera with the stick to even consider moving him back to the infield.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#285181) #

It's never too early to start your children with a pop quiz. Between mouthfuls of oatmeal, raise your eyes from last night's boxscore and say: "hmm, the Blue Jays hit 3 three-run homers and didn't score any other runs, the Orioles hit 1 three-run homer and didn't score any other runs...quick, Ryan and Ashley, who won the game? (wait) By how many runs? (wait) Who pitched the ninth inning? (laugh)". Maybe it was easier when the kids were named Billy and Lizzie.

This has been Math with Mike. See you next time.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#285182) #

It is a little-known fact that Earl Weaver's famous quotation was a misquote. He actually said that the key to winning was "pitching, fundamentals and three three-run homers."

Having grasped the timeless truth of this aphorism, the Jays were able to walk away with the victory last night.

jerjapan - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#285183) #

I can't remember who our resident President of the Mastroianni Fan Club was

Not sure if I was president, but certainly a member. He was injured last year and at only 28 I could see him playing a role here.

Check out this 'ole beltbuster' of a play.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/min/twins-darin-mastroiannis-belt-breaks-on-leaping-catch-in-outfield?ymd=20130904&content_id=59524346&vkey=news_min

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#285184) #

FWIW, I am relatively untroubled by Lawrie not clearing his hips as often as I would like so that he can pull the inside pitch. What does bother me is his inability to square up the pitch over the heart of the plate, and the fact that he swings through many more pitches than before (his O-Swing- swing rate at pitches outside the zone- is way up and his Z-Contact- contact rate on pitches inside the zone- is way down). I don't know if it's a vision problem or too much motion when he needs to be still...Probably it's the latter.

85bluejay - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#285185) #

Despite pitching in a controlled environment and against a team without 3 of their best hitters, Dickey delivers another mediocre performance. This team really needs a #1 starter.
Unless the starters deliver more innings, the 8 man BP will remain a reality

Even if he played Ozzie Smith level defence (& he doesn't), the jays can't keep carrying the abysmal offence of Ryan Goins - he can't hit, offers no power, no speed and no plate discipline - if they can't acquire an outside upgrade (I'm still hopeful on Nick Franklin, the Marnier's GM desperately needs to do something), then the jays should seriously consider promoting Chris Getz - while he's no offensive juggernaut, he offers speed/plate discipline/experience in addition to good defense.

I'm no John Gibbons fan, but from the games I've watched, I can't recall one instance where I think he too quick with the hook - in Minnesota, he mentioned before the game that he was going to exercise caution with McGowan because of the cold weather & his injury history.

rfan8 - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#285187) #

MG, Did a quick search on the net. Found spray charts for Lawrie (see link). He's made so many weak flyball outs to left... and hardly hit anything to right field. I think part of it is mechanics and the other part is lack of aggression (too defensive now).

http://www.fieldrush.com/toronto-blue-jays-brett-lawrie-needs-to-pull-the-ball-more-mlb/

rfan8 - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#285188) #

Oops I got my fields mixed up sorry.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#285189) #

"What does bother me is his inability to square up the pitch over the heart of the plate"

Absolutely. Pitchers seem to have very little fear of starting him off with a fastball right down the pipe. He gets overmatched by 91mph.

Lawrie is going to have to pick it up; this team can't carry two no-hit infielders.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#285190) #

I don't agree that Lawrie needs to pull the ball substantially more. Whether he hits a line drive to right-center, center or left-center on the 91 mph fastball down the pipe is of little moment. That he does hit a line drive fairly regularly is.

Original Ryan - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#285192) #

It's early and completely meaningless, but Dickey's splits this year for times through the batting order are interesting:

         PA			 OPS
1st  PA  45	.150/.244/.250	.494
2nd  PA  45	.237/.333/.368	.702
3rd  PA  39	.433/.564/.733	1.297
4th+ PA   3	.333/.333/.667	1.000

He was relatively consistent in 2013:

         PA                      OPS
1st  PA 306	.269/.331/.433	.764
2nd  PA 305	.239/.285/.394	.680
3rd  PA 286	.225/.309/.443	.751
4th+ PA  46	.190/.261/.405	.666

All the caveats about small sample sizes apply, but so far this season Dickey hasn't fooled anyone the third time through the order.

bpoz - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#285193) #

I always liked Mastro & Zep. My eyes are always opened by anyone that moves fast through the minors. I was hoping that Mastro & T Pastorniky would play for the same farm team, because they stole a lot of bases. That would have been an exciting offense built on speed.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#285197) #

Dickey continues to have no run support through the first five innings. It's awfully hard when the starting pitcher feels he has to throw a shutout every game.

I felt that Thole looked better in spring training this year than last year. It has continued during the year, but he still isn't pulling the ball as much as he ought to. Driving the ball to right-center with less than two strikes (if not golfing the low inside pitch over the right-field wall) should be part of his game. He is strong enough and his bat is at least as quick as Ernie Whitt's...

On the reliever front, it would make me happy if Cecil got the night off tonight. This would mean Loup in the late inning role and Happ in the middle inning role. I am hoping that Happ's performance the other day allowed Gibbons to feel sufficiently confident about that. If not, Todd Redmond is available and the club ought to think hard about roles and personnel- they do not need two mop-up men and Sean Nolin is available to do long-left-handed relief and could use the experience here.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#285198) #

Checking the Preview at B-R I see...
Relievers needing work: Happ (2 days off, 10 pitches over past 5 days total), Redmond (5 days off), Santos (4 days off)
Reliever available: Loup (2 days off, 29 pitches 3 days ago)
Day off ideally but available: Wagner (2 pitches yesterday), Delabar (11 pitches yesterday, 3 days off before that)
Should have today off: Cecil (12 pitches, used 4 of past 6 days), Rogers (19 pitches yesterday)

So the closer, 2 long men and a LOOGY are 100% ready with 2 RH relievers ready to be used if needed but ideally have today off. Pretty much ideal for McGowan going since odds are a long man will be needed (Happ most likely, follow the RHP with a LHP).

Jdog - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#285199) #

To my untrained eye it looks like Lawrie has much more of an uppercut to his swing this year which is leading to a lot of pop-ups and a lack of line drives. I too wound be interested in a scouts take on his swing.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#285200) #

He has certainly golfed a couple of low pitches for home runs. I don't notice a lot of upper cut in the waist-high pitches, but it might be my untrained eye. It looks to me more like he is just missing outright, with the arc of the swing not really being the problem.

Fangraphs has an updated projection for Drew Hutchison. It's good.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#285201) #

Gonna have to give happ a real look at some point. And i'm guessing he's a pleasant surprise out of the pen over the longhaul. I'm a little more worried about getting santos and loup back into form. Not that worried, but still.

Small note on mastroianni, he's completely useless vs. RHP (.262obp/.551ops MLB, .347obp/.700ops MiLB) but not quite entirely useless vs. LHP (.330obp/.634ops MLB, .400obp/.825ops MiLB last 3yrs). Passable given his speed and defence. Wouldn't be the worst bench OF for us IMO.....as long as we have a four man bench with a legit hitter like francisco on it. Or better yet a righty version of him.

I also think the team is waking up to the fact that goins isn't an mlber. Their persistence in starting him every game even when diaz and kawasaki have been hotter reeks of final desperation before cutting bait.

I'm still dreaming that the complete lack of hitting at the position, coupled with hopefully the jays keeping on winning, means a call to Boras soon. And not just a one year offer, either, because really there's no middle infielders in the system closer than 3yrs away anyways.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#285202) #

I don't notice a lot of upper cut in the waist-high pitches, but it might be my untrained eye. It looks to me more like he is just missing outright, with the arc of the swing not really being the problem.

My eyes see the same thing. A reasonably level "line drive" swing, but not squaring the ball up means he's popping it up. And not getting his swing going early enough means those popups are to right field.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#285203) #

So the Dbacks look awful.

Anyone interested in that Aaron Hill guy?

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#285205) #

Today's question: should Brandon Morrow ever pitch from the stretch?

A fact that might help you decide. Over Morrow's career, 5% of PAs with a runner on first have resulted in a DP. In Buehrle's case (for instance), it is almost 10%.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#285206) #

Right now I'll settle for replacing Goins with Kawasaki or Jonathan Diaz. Don't know what it would take to get Hill here but obviously that would be a nice option.

85bluejay - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#285207) #

Lack of run support has prevented guys like Cueto & Samaedzija from providing their teams with outstanding pitching as a #1 is expected to do

I like Aaron Hill but @ 32 he's just starting a 3yr/35m deal , so I'd say no - rather overpay for a younger, long term solution.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#285208) #

The Mariners are behaving very oddly, perhaps as a reaction to feeling underwhelmed at offers for Ackley and Franklin. Ackley is the team's starting LF and apparently Franklin is about to start roaming RF. I can't believe this is the best use of strong defensive second basemen with offensive issues.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#285209) #

Speaking of Samardzija, I've been watching the Cubs game while I work. Shark's stuff is very impressive, and I can see why I've read comparisons to Brandon Morrow. If I was the GM of a contending team that needed a starting pitcher, I wouldn't hesitate to move a couple of prospect arms for him, and if I were the Cubs GM I'd be more interested in a bigger haul of talent than to focus in on Sanchez and Stroman.

finch - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#285211) #

Speaking of other pitchers, Josh Johnson undergoing TJ surgery today. Good thing we stayed clear of that one and the qualifying offer.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#285212) #

I give AA credit for cutting bait with Johnson. He was a nightmare last year and now going under the knife for TJ surgery (thus out for 2014 and part of 2015) just makes AA look very smart there.

As to 2B...
Nick Franklin: 395/469/744 in 49 AAA PA's alternating between 2B and SS. In 15 ML PA though 1 for 13 (ouch) with 1 game at each of 2B/3B/DH/RF/SS.
Dustin Ackley: 246/274/377 in LF over 73 PA

Why on earth are they using 2 guys who play 2B in the outfield? Just a crazy thing to do really. Both have trade value and with an 83 OPS+ they need to get some big hitters out there.

So, for a challenge ... who would you send there? Pitching is solid so I doubt they'd be chasing that outside of being a spare piece in a trade. Cabrera might interest them, but I would expect the Jays to try sending Sierra instead as Cabrera is very valuable right now.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#285213) #

Ouch. Glad we had 2 long men ready for this game. McGowan may not be long for the rotation and Happ is auditioning for his slot I suspect.

Now Goins (of all players) has hit a home run. Weird stuff.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#285214) #

If you are going to play Francisco at first base, you need a plan for the late LOOGY. Sierra pinch-hits and plays RF. Bautista moves.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#285215) #

McGowan needs to figure out what he's pitching. He got better stuff than he's showing. How do you struggle with a 5 run lead unless you don't belong here? I think he gets no more than 2 more starts like this before he pulled.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#285216) #

The Offense has had enough opportunities, they shouldn't have to keep coming back. This is a pitching issue going forward - another A.A. problem.

scottt - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#285218) #

I guess it's down to Loup and Santos....

John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#285219) #

Dang it. Was thinking 'woohoo' seeing the 9th inning rally then Diaz up and I was thinking 'please Gibbons, tell him to keep the bat glued to his shoulder'. 2 pitches later a double play and game over with Reyes on deck. Sigh.

A game that might have ended differently with a 4 man instead of a 3 man bench, although anyone else being used would've required the Jays to put someone out of position if it went into extras. Just frustrating to see a guy who can't hit being up in that situation.

Original Ryan - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#285220) #

Small sample sizes again, but in the four "Dickey Effect" games this season, the Blue Jays are 1-3 and the pitchers have posted an ERA of 6.94.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#285221) #

You lose some like that. I liked the approach of Navarro, Rasmus and Lawrie in the ninth. Francisco battled, and I don't mind the strikeout on a 3-2 curve down by 2 runs leading off. Tillman is the Orioles ace. He lost a game he should have won against McGowan and now won a game he should have lost. It's pretty clear to me which of the two clubs is better.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2014 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#285222) #

Don't forget the Orioles are missing Manny Machado.

If McGowan doesn't reach down for that grounder and deflect it in the 5th inning, was Goins going to turn 2 with it? If McGowan had fielded it, could he have turned two? Do the Jays cruise to victory from there? It's a game of inches.

Thomas - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 06:08 AM EDT (#285223) #

Pinch-hitting for Diaz may have required playing someone out of position, but many teams with normal-sized benches carry at least two players who can play the middle infield positions. If the Jays chose to have a fourth bat on the bench, the team may have elected to carry Dan Johnson or Gose, but even with that arrangement the Jays could have played Johnson at 1B, Francisco at 3B and Lawrie at 2B for a few extra innings.

There was a postgame story where Gibbons reflected that the lack of options on the bench hurt the Jays a little, but said the team needed 8 men in the pen. I've long been on the record as disagreeing with this in all but the most urgent circumstances.

John Northey - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#285224) #

What I'd like is for the players union to push hard for a 26 or 27 man roster next time. With expanded bullpens since the 80's (back then 5 man pens was the norm with only the rare team going with 6 and normally only for a short time) it is past time to do so. Ideally a limit on the number of pitchers as well so we don't get 9+ man bullpens. If the union was smart they'd have made this part of the negotiations for tougher drug testing saying that with greenies gone the need for more roster slots is there now (greenies were used since at least the 60's to give players the endurance for a full season).

whiterasta80 - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#285225) #

I see no reason other than money that MLB doesn't add a 26th roster spot.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#285227) #

Last night, Gibbons had Redmond up very early, with the message to McGowan being that if he got in trouble in the 5th, he was gone. Personally, I am dubious that this is a good strategy for motivation. If you had a straight tandem, you take McGowan out after 4 innings and let Redmond start the 5th. I suspect that this would have worked out better in the particular game, but regardless, it is better in my view than the combination carrot/stick approach to pitcher motivation.

The whole notion that it is so much better to pitch 5 innings and leave with a 6-4 lead than it is to pitch 4 innings and leave with a 6-3 lead is truly ridiculous and counterproductive.

I read that both the Astros and the A's are considering introducing some version of tandem starting at some point. We'll see if it happens.

Ryan Day - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#285228) #

This is almost certainly meaningless, but also kind of fascinating:
Lawrie with nobody on: 070/184/140
Lawrie, runners on: 278/270/611
Lawrie, RISP: 381/364/952

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#285230) #

many teams with normal-sized benches carry at least two players who can play the middle infield positions

In the AL East at least, 3 of the 5 teams (including the supposedly more advanced Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles) are presently using 8 man pens and 3 man benches. In the AL East presently, that is a "normal-sized bench".

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#285231) #

Last night, Gibbons had Redmond up very early, with the message to McGowan being that if he got in trouble in the 5th, he was gone. Personally, I am dubious that this is a good strategy for motivation.

I thought the same thing. Cito Gaston used to build his pitchers' confidence. Last night McGowan was pulled before he gave up a run in the inning, and after a non-hbp, and an infield single. He'd thrown 70 pitches. It could be of course, that McGowan said between innings that he was fatigued, but it didn't look like it from his demeanour as he left the field.

I must say I haven't been impressed with Gibbons' managing in the last week. I thought in both the double-header and the Sunday game there were definite problems with moves that he made.

The front office seems to have done a good job with the Francisco pickup. The other guy who's interesting to me now is Liam Hendriks. HIs minor league numbers at least were pretty good and he's pretty young still.

John Northey - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#285232) #

No question tandem starting with McGowan would make a lot of sense right now. Ideally McGowan followed by Happ (or vice-versa) with a twice through the lineup limit each. Both have issues (McGowan with health and home runs, Happ with just not being more than a mid 90 ERA+ pitcher) so maybe this would help. The rest of the rotation seems to not be as extreme as McGowan outside of Dickey who hasn't had that much of an issue historically the 3rd time around the order so I'd trust he'll get it back together. Morrow with Redmond might be a good idea too as Morrow has been a headache this season too.

Really need a good game from Hutchison I'd say. Someone other than Dickey & Buehrle needs to be a 6+ IP guy on average. Morrow & McGowan are sub 5 IP per game, Hutchison dead on 5 but just one game where he didn't pitch in the 6th inning.

rpriske - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#285233) #

Have you all seen this article?

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2014/04/24/blue_jays_pave_way_for_grass_at_the_rogers_centre.html

JB21 - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#285236) #

It could be of course, that McGowan said between innings that he was fatigued, but it didn't look like it from his demeanour as he left the field.

According to a couple different tweets and articles by the Jays' beat writers this was the case.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#285237) #

If McGowan told Walker and/or Gibbons that he was fatigued after 4 innings and under 60 pitches, Redmond (or Happ) ought to have come in for the 5th. McGowan expressed his concerns about his readiness to start at the beginning of the season; this business of trying to squeeze everything out of him is not a good idea.

uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#285238) #

Mcgowan was giving up bombs right from the first inning - the just ended at the oppo warning track.

And really, he's been giving up way too many hard hit fly balls in all of his starts, even his good ones.

Sano - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#285241) #

I think the Jays have been remarkably reckless in terms of turning McGowan into a starter again. I don't really care what McGowan himself thinks (and I don't really buy that he was sold on being a starter), I think he was turned into a starter because the Jays lost out completely in the FA market. He was Plan D and if he suffers another injury I think he has legitimate cause to be angry at the Jays handling of his place on the team.

China fan - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#285242) #

"....In the AL East at least, 3 of the 5 teams (including the supposedly more advanced Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles) are presently using 8 man pens and 3 man benches. In the AL East presently, that is a "normal-sized bench"....."

This is a nice counterpoint to the usual rhetoric from the critics, who imply that the Jays are doing something horrifically bizarre by going with an 8-man pen. It's actually not so odd if you look at the bigger picture. Sure, there are times when an extra bench player would be useful, but there are also many times when the 8-man pen is valuable to someone like Gibbons who generally does a good job of spotting when a specific pitching matchup is advantageous or when a starter needs to be lifted.

China fan - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#285243) #

"....He was Plan D and if he suffers another injury I think he has legitimate cause to be angry at the Jays handling of his place on the team...."

Yes, it would be much better to have Santana in the rotation -- the Plan A -- instead of McGowan. Most of us were calling for this. But it's silly to suggest that McGowan is inevitably going to be injured because of his "handling" by the Jays. He has repeatedly made it very clear that his arm is fine. He told reporters last night that his arm felt perfectly healthy. The "fatigue" is not in his arm -- it's his overall conditioning, probably because he hasn't been a starter for so many years. Nobody expected that he should go from a bullpen role to an 8-inning starter in the first month. Maybe he'll never get there (and I wouldn't be surprised if he's soon replaced by Happ in the rotation) but it's not a result of poor handling, it's a result of the lack of alternatives because of Santana's defection to the Braves and becausae of Happ's injury in spring training. He might simply be better suited to a bullpen role, like Brett Cecil.

electric carrot - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#285244) #

I did have ambiguous feelings about the logic of putting Dusty in the rotation just because he comes with so many risks. Emotionally 100% for it -- intellectually 50/50 -- on the fence. If I was the manager I give him one more start before I make up my mind about where he best serves the club. If he doesn't go more than 4-5 innings next time up I think you've got to make him the long man in the pen at least until his conditioning is better.

perlhack - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#285246) #

I see no reason other than money that MLB doesn't add a 26th roster spot.

With an average MLB salary of $3.39 million, an additional 30 MLB players means a wealth transfer of $100 million from the owners to the players. If, as John suggests, a 27th spot were to be added as well, that's $200 million out of the owners' pockets every year, adjusting for MLB inflation going forward, of course.

Not gonna happen so long as the owners have any control of the issue. The alternative, of course, is that the players split the same amount of money amongst more individuals, and the MLBPA is not likely to support this, as it doesn't particularly care about an additional minor league players making it to MLB and sharing their wealth.

Ideally a limit on the number of pitchers as well so we don't get 9+ man bullpens.

I can't see the MLBPA supporting such a position, as it would create an implicit bias against pitchers. Why should pitchers belonging to the union support such a proposal? It would mean some of them, particularly those on the cusp of obtaining or retaining an MLB position, would find themselves out of a high-paying job in favour of a bench player, for a reason exclusive of performance or ability.

Chuck - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#285248) #

I see no reason other than money

Funny how owners see that line of thinking so differently than the rest of us. Nothing is easier to spend than someone else's money.

Sano - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#285249) #

The lack of alternatives that you refer to is a direct result of the Jays playing chicken with Santana for months hoping that he would come down to their offer. Indeed the only reason that Santana defected at the last moment was because he hadn't been signed earlier. Talk about his preference for the NL all you want, he would have signed on the dotted line weeks/months before had the Jays upped their offer in terms of year or salary. In my opinion, the real loser in this whole scenario is McGowan as he is now being forced to transition back to being a starter on a few weeks notice. That is poor management by the Jays in my books and if McGowan does get injured I think he has cause to be aggrieved.

John Northey - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#285250) #

The 26th or 27th man would not make anywhere near the average salary. The ml minimum would be far more likely, max of 1 to 2 mil. This is due to the average being based due to the sky high pay for a handful of top players. One at $25 mil and 9 at 1 mil equals an average of $3.4 mil even thought only 10% make that much in this tiny sample.

uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#285252) #

Mcgowan prepared all offseason to be a starter, asked management clearly to let him start coming into camp - and they clearly said they would let him try before camp even started.

This was not sprung on him, or a sudden change of plan. The only reason it kind of looked like it was because he missed a couple weeks with the flu which set him back.

And we can't forget that he earned the spot due to performance - he was excellent in ST.

I think management has done the right thing here 100%. For him, this is what he wanted, and he earned it. For the team, his upside as an SP is most definitely worth the risk of losing one RP to injury.

Beyonder - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#285253) #

An extra player would cost nothing in the long run (as would an extra ten players). There is a certain amount in amount in any one season that a team is prepared to spend on salaries. So what goes into the pocket of the 26th player will come out of the pockets of the first 25. In other words, the cost of an additional player would very quickly get pushed down -- and not to the owners.

I expect the Union would like additional roster spots for the same reason any union would like an increased membership -- more dues and power.

Ryan Day - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#285255) #

My concern about a 26th roster spot is that it would just encourage more specialization - we've already got pitchers with narrow roles, and for several weeks the team was carrying a catcher who only played every 5 days. The 26th player would probably be a pinch-runner, or a defensive specialist, and I don't see that improving the game noticeably.

The Jays' problem is less about space than it is use. They have at least one more pitcher than they need, and little flexibility because no one has options. They're carrying both Diaz & Goins, who are essentially the same player. They're using Moises Sierra because they couldn't find a decent RH hitter despite having two LH regulars with huge platoon splits.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#285258) #

McGowan has diabetes and has had a long history of arm trouble. When he tells a manager or pitching coach that he is fatigued after less than 60 pitches playing in the dome, that ought to be taken very, very seriously. It's been over 4 weeks since he had the flu, so caution ought to be the order of the day.

Sano - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#285259) #

I'm not sure that all of that is true. I know that McGowan said that he prepared in the off-season to be a starter and said in camp that he wanted the same, but wouldn't you think that his conditioning would be a little better if he had in fact prepared all off-season to be a starter? I know it all sounds a little conspiratorial but I just don't buy that after finally making it all the way back to the majors as a reliever last season, McGowan was willing to put it all on the line again in the hopes of being a starter. I don't want to keep on harping on this as I genuinely want McGowan to succeed. I'm just really frustrated that AA and the front office crapped the bed so mightily this off-season that we are all now holding our breath of McGowan and Hutchison to hold up 2/5ths of the starting rotation.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#285260) #

A game that might have ended differently with a 4 man instead of a 3 man bench, although anyone else being used would've required the Jays to put someone out of position if it went into extras.

Sergio Santos used to play shortstop.. I wonder if he could fill in as an emergency infielder for an inning or two?

China fan - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#285261) #

"....we are all now holding our breath of McGowan and Hutchison to hold up 2/5ths of the starting rotation...."

We don't really need to hold our breath on Hutchison -- he is doing fine. As for McGowan, many teams have question marks at their 5th starter position. The Jays at least have plenty of depth options for the 5th starter if McGowan doesn't work out. Among the options: Happ, Rogers, Redmond, Stroman, Jenkins. They just need to figure out which of those six pitchers is best-suited for the 5th starter position. (The latest, from Gibbons today, is that Happ will probably get a spot start in early May, which sounds like a possible prelude to taking over from McGowan if there are continued problems in McGowan's next start.)

But yes, it would have been better if the Jays had acquired Santana.

Ryan Day - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#285262) #

I just don't buy that after finally making it all the way back to the majors as a reliever last season, McGowan was willing to put it all on the line again in the hopes of being a starter.

Pitchers want to start. Largely out of pride, and partly because starters generally get paid a lot more money than relievers. McGowan's always been a starter, so it's no surprise that's still how he sees himself, regardless of whether it's a good idea.

McGowan's been talking about starting since at least last September. There's no conspiracy.

uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#285263) #

Hutch is gonna be a beaut (if he isn't already).

electric carrot - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#285264) #

Why is it whenever Mike Willner comes on blue jay pitchers fall apart. It's nearly immediate.

scottt - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#285265) #

Hutch has an ERA of 5.46. I'd take that into August even if it's just 5 innings a game.

scottt - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#285266) #

3.46 of course...

uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#285267) #

Hutch at 102 pitches, dealing filth, bottom of the order coming up. Not a bad hook of course, but might have been a time to push the starter a bit. And with the way our bullpen is pitching, we're gonna have to start pushing the SP sooner or later.

On another note, it sure would be nice if this was esmil rogers' final game as a jay.

greenfrog - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#285268) #

It's pretty clear to me which of the two clubs is better.

It's not so clear-cut to me. The Jays have some strong talent (both raw and refined), but the team also has a number of question marks (starting rotation, second base, fourth OF / DH / bench, positional player depth generally) and it's unclear how much the Jays can expect from Lawrie and Rasmus this season.

The O's have questionable pitching, but they have some nice positional player talent (which will be augmented when Machado returns). Cruz is helping. Baltimore doesn't look like a playoff team, but they aren't a pushover, either. It's not obvious to me that the Jays are that much better than Baltimore (although they might be in a better position to surpass them with an upgrade at the deadline, depending on how the organization's prospects develop and on how much Rogers is willing to spend on veteran contracts).

Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#285269) #

Hutchison joins Buehrle as the team's 2nd Solid Starter. He just needs much better luck. (Luck is defined as offense that doesn't suck and a Bullpen that can actually pitch.)

Charlie - Thursday, April 24 2014 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#285270) #

Hendriks is interesting to me too. His minor league numbers show great control but he's had no success in the bigs so far. His walk rate has been higher in his major league innings but basically it looks like he just gets hit around (11.7 hits per 9). Presumably that's because his "stuff" isn't going to blow anyone away, which a clip from a 2012 scouting article seems to confirm:

His fastball isn't a blazer at 87-92 MPH, averaging right around 90. He mixes it with a curveball, slider, and changeup, giving him an arsenal of four pitches. The changeup is probably his best pitch, but both breaking balls are respectable, and all of his pitches play up due to his superior command.

It would be cool to see an Aussie pitcher come up for the Jays and avenge the ghost of Luke Prokopec.

jerjapan - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#285271) #

(and I don't really buy that he was sold on being a starter)

Are you suggesting McGowan was pressured into being a starter by the Jays? He's made numerous public statements for months to suggest otherwise.

rfan8 - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#285272) #

I couldn't watch the game after the double steal. I don't remember the exact circumstances but it seems like there have been several occasions this year when a reliver has come in and allowed the tying or winning runner(s) advance into scoring position without much of a challenge.

After checking the score this morning though, I am glad I turned off the TV.

Chuck - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#285273) #

One thing making the games tough to watch this year is the pitchers' walk rate. It is second worst in the AL. The core relievers, Santos/Delabar/Cecil/Loup have walked 29 men in 33 innings.

Dickey has been the only walk-happy starter. His current walk rate is more than double that of his preceding 800 innings, where it was in the 2's.

John Northey - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#285274) #

The one good thing about the insane walks is the Jays are 11-11.

With a club walk rate of 4.3 BB/9, Dickey at 5.6, Santos at 9.8 (!!!!), and Loup/Cecil/Delabar over 7 (!!!) it is remarkable the team has an ERA+ of 98. Buerhle and Hutchison are the only starters over 100, with Redmond and Wagner the only relievers over 110 (what I consider the bare minimum required for an effective reliever). Cecil and Happ are the others over 100. Crazy.

Just to add to the insanity, Redmond has the most innings in relief so far at 15, followed by Rogers at 13.

Now, by FIP things are a bit different. The team spread is 0.47 - the FIP is that much lower than the ERA. Cecil, Wagner, Buehrle, and Redmond are sub 3, Hutch and Morrow are below 3.25, the rest are 4+ with Rogers & Happ over 6. Ouch.

uglyone - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#285275) #

I'm not all that surprised that his absence has so clearly reinforced just how good and important Janssen is in that bullpen. IMO Janssen is one of the most underrated RP in baseball. Hard and wild guys like santos and delabar get all the attention, but give me a janssen every time.

Sure hope he's not broken for good.

China fan - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#285276) #

Anthopoulos said today that he expects Janssen to be back pitching for the Jays in about a week or so. Let's hope he's right.

92-93 - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#285285) #

Whereas Gibbons said today "I don't see him back here in the next couple of weeks" about Janssen as well as "I've always been a big fan of him (being) in the bullpen" on McGowan (courtesy of John Lott). I do wonder about the line of communication between the manager and GM.

China fan - Friday, April 25 2014 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#285286) #

Yes, it seems AA was over-optimistic about Janssen, or maybe he was trying to minimize the injury problems in an interview with an out-of-town reporter who might not know as much about the realities of the situation. Gibbons seems to be correct that Janssen will need at least 2 weeks before returning.

Four Seamer - Saturday, April 26 2014 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#285289) #

A Blue Jay GM caught in a lie about the health of his closer? Whether your tastes in British rock run to The Who (meet the new boss, same as the old boss) or The Smiths (stop me if you think that you've heard this one before), you are covered.

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