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This is your thread for the Tampa series.  We get a nice surprise to start with, the lineup is not full of lefties.

There had been some worries that Ryan Goins and Adam Lind would start against David Price.  However Dioner Navarro and Maicer Izturis get the start so there are just two lefties in the lineup, Thole and Rasmus.

Reyes-SS
Cabrera-LF
Bautista-RF
Encarnacion-1B
Navarro-DH
Lawrie-3B
Rasmus-CF
Izturis-2B
Thole-C
Dickey-P

 

The rest of the pitching schedule is:

Tuesday: hutchison vs Cobb

Wednesday: Buehrle vs Moore

Thursday: Morrow vs Archer

Game Threads: Blue Jays at Tampa | 205 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#283975) #
I am glad to see that Gibbons has made the platoon moves.  It will be interesting to see what he does when the club faces Matt Moore who has smaller platoon splits over his career than Price.
Mylegacy - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#283976) #
With Janssen out with a lower back thingy - Santos becomes the closer and Kratz gets called up - I like his R power bat off the bench.

We've four switch hitters - FOUR - wonderful isn't it. Against one of the great lefties (Price) we'll counter with: Reyes (S), Cabrera (S), Bautista (R), EE (R), Navarro (S), Lawrie (R), Rasmus (L), Izturis (S) and Thole (L). I think we're gonna fall in love with Navarro's professional hitting. He won't be great, but almost every one of his at bats will be productive(ish). A huge improvement over Arron Ciebia's homer or walk back to the bench approach.

I've got a good feeling about this year - however 4 games in hell aren't a great way to start the season. A 2-2 start would go a long way to soothing my fevered brow.

Is this the year we get to at least 163 games? I so hope so...

greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#283977) #
If the Jays have to play four in Tampa, now is probably as good a time as any. Weird things can happen in the early going. Maybe the Jays can capitalize before the Rays get into their usual winning groove.
uglyone - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#283983) #
Lind and goins on the bench vs. The lefty. Another lesson learned - never listen to buck martinez for any reason whatsoever.

Interesting call using navarro instead of sierra - likely due to familiarity with price.

Thing to remember about Kratz that he actually has reverse splits - hits righties much better than lefties.
Chuck - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#283984) #
Interesting call using navarro instead of sierra - likely due to familiarity with price.

And the fact that the team is carrying 3 catchers.

John Northey - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#283985) #
If you check Kratz' minor league record you'll see he didn't have reverse splits there, just in his brief time in the majors (103 PA vs LHP). Nowhere near enough to justify benching him vs LHP.

Minor league (plus ML mixed in) stats from B-R
2012: 997 vs LHP, 770 vs RHP (mix of NL and AAA)
2011 (last 400+ PA season in minors) 837 OPS vs LHP and vs RHP
2010: 970 vs LHP, 735 vs RHP
2009: 1058 vs LHP, 698 vs RHP

Just once in those 4 years did he hit as well vs RHP as LHP, the other 3 years clearly better vs LHP.
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#283987) #
I agree, John.  I'd have Kratz catching and Navarro DHing when the opponents throw a lefty and anyone other than Dickey is pitching. 
Ryan Day - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#283992) #
I wonder how long the Jays will stick with Thole. He actually hit worse than Henry Blanco last year, and Knuckleball Voodoo wasn't enough to keep Blanco around. It's a bit painful to see Thole facing Price - even in his better days, he was ineffective vs lefties. I wonder if Kratz will get a start or two with Dickey, particularly if there's another lefty on the mound.
China fan - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#283994) #
"...I wonder if Kratz will get a start or two with Dickey, particularly if there's another lefty on the mound..."

I think that's virtually guaranteed to happen at some point this year -- especially considering how much time Kratz was given with Dickey this spring.
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#283996) #
Anthopoulos said that that Thole would have a relatively short leash.  Don't worry- he's going to hit enough to be an acceptable back-up catcher, i.e. better than the Blanco/Huckaby standard.
Parker - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#283997) #
Is it just me, or does it seem like Gregg Zaun has actually gotten DUMBER since last year?
John Northey - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#283998) #
Meanwhile in Texas... JPA has a double, a walk, and has scored twice.  However, Texas is losing 10-8 giving up 2 stolen bases in the midst of all those runs.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#283999) #
Reyes injured, Goins in at SS.
John Northey - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#284000) #
Oh crap - Reyes out already? Just watching on gameday so no idea what happened.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#284001) #
The Jays really need to sign Stephen Drew.
Ryan Day - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#284003) #
No idea what happened. He flied out in his at-bat, then didn't come back out to field. He looked fine running to first & then back to the dugout.

If he actually hurt himself, the Jays' training staff grossly misdiagnosed his hamstrings.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#284004) #
My guess would be Reyes tweaked his hamstring. It didn't look too serious, but it might take a while before he's good to go full-time. Really, the Jays need to stop bringing players back before they're ready.
China fan - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#284005) #
"....If he actually hurt himself, the Jays' training staff grossly misdiagnosed his hamstrings...."

Because it's impossible for someone to be injured without blame?
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#284006) #
In fairness, Reyes did play on the weekend and was seemingly fine.  Hamstrings are like that.  Normally, you are better off to put the player on the DL and just wait out the 15 days, even if the player can technically play before that. 
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#284007) #
The home plate ump is really squeezing Dickey. RA threw Zobrist and Joyce clear strikes but they were called balls. Zobrist struck out anyway, but Joyce managed to draw a walk.
Chuck - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#284008) #
The home plate ump is really squeezing Dickey.

This seemed to be a frequent thing last year as well. The sharp movement of the knuckle ball seems to consistently fool umpires.

greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#284009) #
And the walks come back to bite the Jays. It's incredibly early, but this really does feel like 2013.
Beyonder - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#284010) #
The problem so far certainly isn't too much movement on the knuckler -- neither of Dickey's two pitches to Myers knuckled at all. BP fastballs from what I could see.
soupman - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#284011) #
last offseason i went back and was watching a dickey 1-hitter and thinking he was getting a lot of calls. the zone was huge, and at the time thinking...well 'i don't think you can bank on those calls in toronto'

not the ideal start so far, but they're still in it!
ogator - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#284013) #
Goins at SS, Macier at 2B, Thole catching and Dickey struggling. It's deja vu all over again.
grjas - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#284016) #
Two bad outings in a row for Dickey. Hope it's early season pains, or it will be a long year.
Eephus - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#284017) #
*rocks back and forth in a rocking chair* It's the first game! It's only the first game! It's only the first game... hah ha ha!

Let's hope Dickey doesn't walk six guys in his next three starts COMBINED. This is just awful.

Eephus - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#284019) #
First pitch Erik Kratz sees as a Blue Jay, goes 400 feet and over the wall. Now there's something nice.
Dave Till - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#284021) #
This hasn't been exactly the best start to a season. Even the broadcast is having difficulties.

I too thought that Dickey was having the strike zone squeezed on him. If the strike zone thingy on the broadcast was accurate, R. A. got jobbed out of three strikes that were called balls.

Chuck - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#284022) #
Even the broadcast is having difficulties.

Bad news for RSN. Good news for the fans. I would gladly roll the dice with the opponents' broadcast team all summer long.

Chuck - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#284023) #
Little league home run for Myers.
Eephus - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#284024) #
Little league home run for Myers.

Nice to see the team defense pick up from where they left off last year.
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#284025) #
In other good news, Colby Rasmus tied his assist mark of last year on Opening Day. 
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#284026) #
What happened with the Myers HR?
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#284027) #
Ground ball up the third base line.  Jeffress throws it away down the right-field line, Myers is heading for third, Bautista aims and misfires, Myers trots home.
Chuck - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#284028) #
Billy Hamilton 0 for 4, 4 Ks. Apparently couldn't steal first.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#284029) #
Yikes. Well, chalk it up to spring train...erm, never mind.
Ryan Day - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#284031) #
It was a play Jeffress shouldn't have even been part of - Lawrie was in position to make the play & throw to first cleanly.
Gerry - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#284033) #
The big problem with todays game was the sense of deja-vu. Dickey was not good to start last season, injuries hurt the Jays last year and the defense was terrible at the start of the year.

So today we get poor pitching from Dickey, an injury and errors. It's like a flashback.
Gerry - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#284034) #
The Jays have 39 players on their 40 man roster thanks to the DFA of Tuiasosopo. They might need that spot for Kawasaki. I think you have to put Reyes on the 15 day DL before he really damages his leg.
Mike Green - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#284035) #
I am all for putting Reyes on the DL, and calling up Kawasaki.

I wasn't too disheartened by today's game.  Price was really good, and the Jays did battle quite a bit.  I especially liked Lawrie's at-bat.  Dickey's poor game also did not trouble me.  It's the nature of the beast.  He was throwing in the high 70s.  And I like the matchups in the rest of the series for the Jays. 

greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#284036) #
According to Chisholm, Reyes's hamstring was bothering him in Montreal but he thought he could play through it. Again, it makes you wonder about the communication between player and training staff and/or front office, as well as the team's decision-making process around injuries. Last year it was Lawrie, Arencibia, Delabar, Cecil, maybe Reyes and others (Rasmus, EE after his WBC wrist injury) as well -- I'm probably missing some players (Cabrera?). It seems as if the Jays are always pushing someone too soon, too fast (or not backing off quickly enough when there are indications of an injury). Perhaps players feel some pressure to keep going because of the lack of depth on the team.
grjas - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#284038) #
I especially liked Lawrie's at-bat.

That was the highlight of the game (for jays fans). Patience, a good eye, fouling off pitches against a tough pitcher. Lawrie has sure matured. Fingers crossed for a break out year
grjas - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#284039) #
10% of Price's pitches were in that one at bat. Doesn't say much for the patience of rest of the hitters though..
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#284041) #
I would prefer seeing Kawasaki called up and Thole sent to Buffalo. Carrying 3 catchers in the AL is rare. No need to put Reyes on the DL.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#284042) #
Again, it makes you wonder about the communication between player and training staff and/or front office, as well as the team's decision-making process around injuries.

Actually, it didn't make me wonder about any of that. Not every event that doesn't have a favourable outcome is a result of inadequate management or insufficient control. Most often it's more simple. You try to play your best players if they can play. Sometimes they think they're ready and they're not quite. Guys with hamstring problems tend to have them somewhat frequently. They did an MRI. I doubt very much that anyone failed in their job.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#284043) #
Reyes to the DL. Jonathan Diaz up. The perfect combo guy for Goins. Both all glove, zero bat.
Mike D - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#284045) #
We can wish for Stephen Drew, but the one absolute certainty of the Anthopoulos Era is that when an injury occurs, the team shrugs its shoulders, accepts that the replacement will be horrible, loses copiously, and says that losing is really all anyone can expect, what with the injuries.
Original Ryan - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#284047) #
Reyes to the DL. Jonathan Diaz up. The perfect combo guy for Goins. Both all glove, zero bat.

At least they didn't call-up a pitcher.

Parker - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#284048) #
the one absolute certainty of the Anthopoulos Era is that when an injury occurs, the team shrugs its shoulders, accepts that the replacement will be horrible, loses copiously, and says that losing is really all anyone can expect, what with the injuries.

There are some posters here who seem to be on board with that philosophy - as if the team's terrible performance somehow doesn't count, insisting that the organization's glaring lack of depth exposed by injury-prone players is just bad luck and that nobody is to blame for it.
John Northey - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#284049) #
Er....what?  Diaz is zero bat - he makes Goins look like a good hitter.
Diaz lifetime in minors: 230/358/297 split time between SS/2B with 61 games at 3B, 0-4 in the majors splitting time between 3B and 1 inning at 2B.
Goins in minors: 273/330/376 (note: never played in Vegas), mainly SS with 32 games at 2B and 1 at 3B

Diaz is better at getting walks, but that skill rarely seems to work in the majors if you have 0 power.

Diaz wasn't on the 40 man.  I understand wanting a SS/2B to fill the hole, but why not Kawasaki who at least is fun to watch play.  I just don't see what Diaz is doing in a major league uniform when he seems marginal for AAA.
Rich - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#284050) #
We can wish for Stephen Drew, but the one absolute certainty of the Anthopoulos Era is that when an injury occurs, the team shrugs its shoulders, accepts that the replacement will be horrible, loses copiously, and says that losing is really all anyone can expect, what with the injuries.

+1
Ron - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#284051) #
I know most fans thought the Jays needed another INF because it was unlikely Lawrie and Reyes would stay healthy for the whole season. Based on the offer for Santana, it's clear AA still has the money to make a big move. I want to know why the Jays have avoided going after Drew.

A trio of Goins, Izturis, and Diaz wouldn't even be good at the AAA level. We are only 1 game into the season and the lack of moves in the off-season is already coming back to haunt the Jays.
laketrout - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#284052) #
Jeffress reminds me a lot of Juan Guzman - great fastball with a ton of movement. I remember the advice given to Guzman was to just throw down the middle of the plate and let the movement of his fastball do the rest. Jeffress needs to do the same and stop trying to pick corners.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#284053) #
Not every event that doesn't have a favourable outcome is a result of inadequate management or insufficient control

An interesting contrast to the Jays' response to the Reyes injury: Victorino suffered a grade 1 hamstring injury (the mildest grade) in the final days of ST. The Red Sox simply put him on the 15-day DL.

Here's the team's response:

“It's going to require some time down. We'll have a better read on his potential availability, I would say, probably seven to 10 days into the 15-day DL stint and see how he responds to treatment from that point,” said manager John Farrell. “The overall projected date of return, it will be when he's ready to go. Whether that's 15 days or beyond remains to be seen.”

Here's the Jays' response to Reyes' initial injury (per John Lott):

The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop has a history of leg problems, so when he tweaked his left hamstring Saturday, red flags began to fly, even though he and manager John Gibbons said the injury was not considered serious.

On Monday afternoon, Reyes underwent an MRI to help determine just how serious it is. The results, according to the Blue Jays: a “mild” hamstring strain. His status is day-to-day.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#284054) #
The Jays have far more injuries than other clubs ... at least it seems so. I look at Tampa and see a team that finds ways to keep their team healthy. I see the Jays and stuff like Reyes playing despite being hurt makes me think of the old hockey mentality - so your leg is broken, who cares just tough it out.  Very frustrating.  I can see doing that in the playoffs, especially the World Series, but in the regular season - heck, in April for crying out loud - is just dumb and asking for it.
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#284055) #
It may not have changed what happened to Reyes, but what really annoys me is the absolutely needless trudging of Reyes to Montreal to play 2 meaningless games - even if the player says he's okay, given his history it seems to me the prudent thing to do was leave him in Florida, he could have rested 2 more days, played on grass Sunday in a minor league game and then joined the team - this failure to do what seems like the sensible & prudent thing further erodes my confidence in the FO & I'm less likely to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Another that bugs me is that despite all the injuries to the jays over recent years, the training staff remains the same - nobody loses their job.

Diaz is the best defensive SS the Jays have, so I'm guessing that with Lawrie/Diaz/Goins - it's going to be max. defensive setup and hope the top 6 can provide enough offense .
Charlie - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#284056) #
That Farrell quote reminds me of Jonah Keri's recent article "Moneyball ... But with Money" where he notes the Red Sox focus' on health:
In the same way that teams employ roving pitching, hitting, fielding, and baserunning coaches to help players focus on certain elements of their game, the Red Sox realized they could find specialists to deal with these soft-tissue concerns. Physical therapists craft regimens to help players avoid the kind of nagging injuries that can linger for far too long; when those injuries do occur, they can help players recover in weeks instead of months, or days instead of weeks. In essence, the Red Sox are using a physical therapist like a roving medical coach.
Maybe the Jays could take a fraction of the money they didn't spend this offseason and put it toward soft tissue specialists who could at least preserve the value of their acquisitions from last offseason.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#284057) #
Stuff like that I've felt the Jays should do for years. I say hire a personal coach for each and every player on the 40 man roster plus top prospects.  Pay $150k a year to each, say 50 of them, and it costs $7.5 mil a year. Each reports to the team and keeps a close eye on 'their' player. They get to know everything about him, keep an eye on nutrition and fitness with an eye towards keeping them as finely tuned as possible. With just one player to watch these guys would become complete experts on every element of their players body and would be expected to go over video from each game and watch for any little thing that has gone wrong. To work out the player and stretch them so they reach their maximum potential. Works out with them in the offseason as well, but you could give them time off in November/December before refocusing on the next season.

For it to be worth it all you'd need is to save less than 1/2 a season a year of a regular, or to gain that much extra time out of a prospect.  If a prospect can reach the majors that much quicker or shift from a B level to A level then you can make millions (vs paying a free agent) very quickly. Yeah, some players might have their own therapists and the like already. Too bad - they would get used to having this other person around who works with them constantly. It could be a team effort in that case. 

Funny how teams cut corners in areas like this, then blow $300 mil on player.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#284058) #
Reyes to the DL. Jonathan Diaz up. The perfect combo guy for Goins. Both all glove, zero bat.

Diaz bats right.  Perhaps the plan is to platoon Diaz and Goins at shortstop and play Izturis at second base for the duration of Reyes'  injury.  Against lefties, he has put up a .279/.396/.355 line over the last 3 years.  This might work out passably for 2 weeks.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#284061) #
I look at Tampa and see a team that finds ways to keep their team healthy.

Or a team that's gotten lucky. Or perhaps a team that's young and therefore less injury prone, plus they've been lucky. No one knows. Since it could well be the latter, though, if you really wanted to emulate the Rays, you'd presumably want to trade Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, Dickey, etc. I mean, for now the Jays happen to be built differently from the Rays, i.e., they're older, and that's probably going to mean more injuries. Maybe coaching, etc. also factors into it -- we can't discount the possibility -- but maybe it doesn't.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#284062) #
Another that bugs me is that despite all the injuries to the jays over recent years, the training staff remains the same - nobody loses their job.

Maybe they're doing a good job.
rfan8 - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#284063) #
Wish they had promoted Kawasaki. It seems like the players on this team beat themselves up. He provides a different vibe, which I think helped the team's performance last year.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#284065) #

Another that bugs me is that despite all the injuries to the jays over recent years, the training staff remains the same - nobody loses their job.

.... and Reyes only started having injury issues when he joined the Jays.. ??? 

Gerry - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#284067) #
The strength and conditioning was coach was changed over the off-season, I believe.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#284068) #
Last year, the Blue Jays were 4-6 after play on April 12.  Kawasaki was called up and played pretty much every day in place of Reyes until June 24.  After the finish of play that day, the club was 38-37.  In other words, they went 34-31 with Kawasaki replacing Reyes.  I don't know why the club wouldn't do that again for a (hopefully) shorter period. Kawasaki doesn't look great in the field or at the plate, but he is a perfectly acceptable backup middle infielder and probably a better player than Goins. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#284069) #
I too would have preferred Mune as a stopgap solution. The Jays are facing some tough pitchers in the next week or so (Archer, Cobb, Moore, Tanaka, Pineda) - do the Jays really want to see how Diaz holds his own against these SPs? It seems to me that Kawasaki would give the Jays much better PAs, and his experience in the field might help, too.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#284071) #
The Jays are facing Moore & Sabathia in the next few days, so Kawasaki would be neutralized there, and Diaz is supposed to be a stronger shortstop. I'm a big fan of Kawasaki, but I'm not sure there's a huge difference in the short term.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#284072) #
Question: who was the team president that the Jays reportedly almost hired just before Beeston (v. 2.0) took over? I remember rumours at the time that the Jays had found a highly regarded candidate for the position, but that the hiring fell through for some reason. Then Beeston stepped in as interim president, and the rest is history.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#284075) #
Its really unacceptable that the staff ace walks 6 in the season opener. Pretty disgraceful.

Ron - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#284077) #
If there's any sort of correlation between age and injury, the Jays are probably in trouble. After looking over the rosters, by my count, the Jays have the 2nd oldest rotation (behind the Phillies) and the 3rd oldest roster (behind the Yankees and Philiies). Even after looking at the rosters, it's strange to think of the Jays as a really old team.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#284078) #
In the Jays' case, the average age is a bit of peripheral issue.  Dickey is a knuckleballer without too much mileage on his arm (but missing a ligament).  Buehrle is in his mid-30s but has a tremendous record of durability and is built like a horse.  The ones you really worry about are either young (Hutchison, Lawrie) or in mid-career (Reyes, Bautista, Morrow, McGowan).
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#284079) #
and Reyes only started having injury issues when he joined the Jays.. ???

Well exactly. This was why the Mets were unwilling to go to the lengths that Miami went with Reyes. Here's an article from the time.

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2011/08/mets_jose_reyes_placed_on_the.html

When you are trading in the tiny pool of teams who don't give out no-trades, it's hard to be choosy.

It's hard to imagine how last offseason's moves could have worked out any worse.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#284080) #

Do we miss Y. Escobar?  Probably not, but Hechavarria is not looking too bad right now.

Yesterday's game was bad, but misleading.  Price was pitching tough and I thought Dickey was being squeezed. 

I am looking forward to today's game.  Is Hutch the real deal?

Chuck - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#284081) #
Do we miss Y. Escobar? Probably not, but Hechavarria is not looking too bad right now.

Escobar was worth 4 WAR last year. Hechavarria was worth -2.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#284084) #
In the Jays' case, the average age is a bit of peripheral issue. Dickey is a knuckleballer without too much mileage on his arm (but missing a ligament).

Dickey is a unique case, but I think his age should still be a consideration. He was a conventional until age 31, so his shoulder would have a fair amount of mileage on it. It's also possible that his back or legs could become an issue at his age. He's not a typical 39 year-old pitcher, but he's not a 26 year-old, either.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#284085) #
Dickey has thrown 2500 innings in his major and minor league career to date, about 700 of them in the last 3 years.  His age is relevant, but with all that, ZIPS projects Dickey to throw 195.7 innings, a little more than Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Zack Greinke and Homer Bailey and a little less than David Price and Jon Lester. 

In the case of this pitching staff, the older pitchers with the record of durability are probably less likely to miss significant time with injury than the younger pitchers with the history of significant injury.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#284087) #
I don't see the age thing.

SP

TOR: Dickey 39, Buehrle 35, Mcgowan 32, (Happ 31), Morrow 29, Hutch 23
BOS: Lackey 35, (Capuano 35), Peavy 33, Lester 30, Buchholz 29, Doubront 26
NYY: Kuroda 39, Sabathia 33, Nova 27, (Phelps 27), Tanaka 25, Pineda 25
TBL: Price 28, Hellickson 27, Cobb 26, Moore 25, Archer 25, (Odorizzi 24)
BAL: Jimenez 30, Gonzalez 30, Norris 29, Chen 28, Tillman 26, (McFarland 25)

BP

TOR: Janssen 32, Santos 30, Delabar 30, Redmond 29, Rogers 29, Cecil 27, Loup 26, (Jeffress 26)
BOS: Uehara 39, Breslow 33, Badenhop 31, Mujica 30, Miller 29, Wright 29, Tazawa 28, (Workman 25)
NYY: Thornton 38, Kelley 30, Robertson 29, Betances 26, Nuno 26, Warren 26, Claiborne 26, (Banuelos 23)
TBL: Peralta 38, Balfour 36, Bell 36, Oviedo 32, (Ramos 30), Gomes 29, Lueke 29, McGee 27
BAL: O'Day 31, Meek 31, Webb 28, Matusz 27, Hunter 27, Escalona 27, Britton 26, (Stinson 26)

LINEUP

TOR: Bautista 33, Izturis 33, Encarnacion 31, Reyes 31, Navarro 30, Lind 30, Cabrera 29, Rasmus 27, Lawrie 24
BOS: Ortiz 38, Pierzynski 37, Victorino 33, Napoli 32, Sizemore 31, Nava 31, Pedroia 30, Middlebrooks 25, Bogaerts 21
NYY: Jeter 40, Soriano 38, Beltran 37, Roberts 36, Teixeira 34, Johnson 32, Gardner 30, McCann 30, Ellsbury 30
TBL: Molina 39, Dejesus 35, Zobrist 33, Escobar 31, Loney 30, Joyce 29, Longoria 28, Jennings 27, Myers 23
BAL: Cruz 34, Hardy 31, Markakis 30, Reimold 30, Jones 28, Weiters 28, Davis 28, Flaherty 27, Machado 21

BENCH

TOR: (Kratz 34), (Diaz 29), Thole 27, Goins 26, Sierra 25, Pillar 25
BOS: Ross 37, Gomes 33, Herrera 29, Carp 28, (Holt 26), (Bradley 24)
NYY: Suzuki 40, Cervelli 28, (Nunez 27), Solarte 26, Almonte 25, (Romine 25)
TBL: Hanigan 33, Rodriguez 29, Guyer 28, Forsythe 27, (Beckham 24, Lee 23)
BAL: Pearce 31, Young 28, Clevenger 28, Lough 28, (Peguero 26, Schoop 22)
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#284088) #
Diaz and Goins are both in the lineup against Cobb today.  No chance that they will be mistaken for Trammell and Whitaker, but I'd take Belanger and Barney instead.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#284090) #
Lindy making the Jays look good for picking up his option. I continue to think that that was a reasonable decision.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#284092) #
Runners 1st and 2nd, 1 out, Zobrist and Longoria to bat.  4-0 lead, 1 out in the 6th.  Hutchison at 83 pitches and not looking tired.  You Be the Manager?  Me, I leave him rather than bringing Loup.


greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#284093) #
Pro-Loup: Hutch just walked a batter he shouldn't have (although he then got Myers to fly out); he'd been impressive tonight but his command had been inconsistent; Zobrist 0-5 against Loup; Zobrist and Longo are very smart hitters who probably had started to get a read on Hutch; Loup is a quality reliever with great composure who rarely allows HRs (five in 100 ML innings); it's early in the season - let Hutch build off a good start with a chance for the W

Pro-Hutch: pitch count of 83; pitching a shutout; Longo was 1-3 against Loup with a double; RHP against a switch-hitter and RHB; Jays had a four-run lead

On balance, I liked the decision to go to Loup. A solid proactive move. Hutch will get many chances to work out of jams as the season goes on.
electric carrot - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#284094) #
Love the decision going to Loup.  You could sense that Hutchison was starting to lose it.  Forget pitch count -- Gibbons switches based on the pitch quality -- good one.



TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#284095) #
When you're facing the reigning Cy Young winner on Opening Day, it might be a good idea to not start your best pitcher. The Jays might have accidentally followed this strategy.
grjas - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#284096) #
Loup move wasn't a surprise to me.

Rasmus playing shallow twice with a 4-1 lead thiugh was bizarre. Interesting contrast with Rays who shift on individual pitches vs Our CF making a little league positioning error..in the ninth inning no less. Does he not listen or is the coaching staff asleep at the switch. Both doubles were playable if Rasmus was in the right position.

That said, Hutchison impresses me more every time I see him. And his numbers in the minors were better than Cobb's.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#284097) #
Well, let's all be happy about that one. Pitching, fundamentals (mostly), and a three-run HR. Earl Weaver would be proud.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#284098) #
Didn't love the quick hook, but loup mowing down zobrist and longo instead of hutch facing them for the third time turns out to be the right move.

Great outing from the kid, but since i expect that of him the actual big story tonight for me was our lineup grinding the hell out if the rays' #2 guy, who actually had his stuff tonight. Getting him out of the game in 5 was excellent....and hellasurprising from our jays. Seitzer must be feeling pretty proud right about now.

If the jays can do that more often, we're a much better team.
hypobole - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#284099) #
When was the last time Hutch threw 83 pitches in a game?

Agree Colby's positioning on those 2 doubles was puzzling.

Not getting swept in Tampa is a good thing, even have a chance to win the opening series.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 01 2014 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#284100) #
I am impressed that Gibbons didn't slavishly stick to the old 100 pitch limit, but instead felt Hutch hit a limit and pulled him despite the 0 runs.  3 walks in 5 1/3 IP is higher than it should be and hints that he didn't have his best control, although 50-33 strike-ball count does sound good.

What I love is how two games in a row we've seen decent offense from guys who were supposed to be in Buffalo right now - first Kratz with the home run yesterday and Diaz driving in the 4th run today.  Funny how that works sometimes.  A big positive also is the Jays getting more walks than they gave up.

Oceanbound - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:21 AM EDT (#284101) #
Apparently the Jays are signing Juan Francisco, which is... weird? He's a not entirely useless bench bat, but being a lefty, doesn't really help the team's platoon issues much.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:59 AM EDT (#284103) #
Hutchison admits struggling if you read other sites. "Dickey Effect" strikes again.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#284105) #
Francisco is interesting. Lifetime 243/300/432 - a lot like JPA including sky high K's and low walks (54 walks in 771 PA, 259 K's).  His UZR/150 at 3B is -1.8 lifetime but is a bit weird as in 2011 it was -17.4, 2012 11.7, 2013 -14.6 (over 150 innings each year).  At 1B he was horrid last year -27.1 in 532 innings.  Projected by Oliver to be negative for WAR from here on out.  Not the worst depth signing for AAA but not a great signing either.  If the Jays can get him to cut down on those K's then he would get interesting.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#284106) #
Nothing more than a flier on a talent with some upside. We've obviously had some success with this in the past and if Lawrie goes down it makes me slightly more comfortable. If we had 4 or 5 more of these type moves AA may have been given a break on the "stand alex" off-season.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#284107) #
Snagging a cast off Milwaukee first baseman is a coup of the most modest proportions. The irony here is that Francisco has become available because Lyle Overbay, cut loose by these very Jays 3 years ago, took his job.

I suppose part of Francisco's appeal is that he has 3B on his resume. Of course, he could just as easily have the word statue there in its place.

Just another warm replacement level body to add to the warm replacement level body heap.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#284108) #
Runners 1st and 2nd, 1 out, Zobrist and Longoria to bat. ... Me, I leave him rather than bringing Loup

Late to the dance here as I didn't see the game. While there is no disputing the quality of Loup's outing (at least on paper, my only barometer), was any mention made why he, specifically, was brought in to face right handed batters given his pronounced L/R splits? He would seem an odd choice.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#284109) #
Loup was very, very good, particularly to Longoria.  Don't be fooled by the lineout in the game summary.  He had Longoria off balance- got ahead with a sweet backdoor curve, and Longoria's liner to first base was soft and resulted from a weak protection swing with 2 strikes by a good hitter.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#284110) #
...and zobrist is a switch hitter, who is better as a lefty, so flipping him around was the percentage play.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#284111) #
If Zobrist reaches base, I do not like a Loup vs. Longoria matchup with the bases loaded in a 4 run game with 1 out.  Gibbons was, I think, looking forward to Loney.  It's a marginal call either way, and hence the question mark in my original post.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#284112) #
Don't be fooled by the lineout in the game summary.

I didn't read the game summary. I just saw the 5-up 5-down and assumed he was as impressive as that sounds. I still don't get why Loup was the man to face two RHB except that perhaps it was only the 6th inning and thus his "time" to enter the game.

...and zobrist is a switch hitter, who is better as a lefty, so flipping him around was the percentage play

His career OPS splits are actually 801/783, so this is not true.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#284113) #
Prediction: by the time Reyes is ready to come off the DL, Jonathan Diaz will have taken Ryan Goins' job at 2B.

Pessimistic prediction: Reyes will never "really" come off the DL.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#284114) #
A good question is who should come in when it is the 6th inning with runners on.  Starting an inning I'd say Redmond or Rogers.  Mid-inning Loup or Jeffress makes a lot of sense instead as both have been relievers more so than Redmond and Rogers.  Santos, Cecil, Delabar are saved for the 8th/9th innings. 
Chuck - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#284115) #
A good question is who should come in when it is the 6th inning with runners on.

It just seems odd to carry 7 or 8 relievers and not make this decision based on match-ups. Despite being early in the game, it is still high leverage. Much higher leverage, in fact, than starting the 7th with no one on base.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#284116) #
Well, the question becomes does the manager already have roles planned.  Generally it is best if the pitchers know what to expect so they can be ready to go when needed.  IE: if Redmond and Loup knew they were likely to be called on pre-7th inning then both would be mentally set to jump in. But if you came up to, say, Santos then he might not be able to get ready as quickly since he is expecting a call in the 9th and maybe 8th inning.  The general feeling is that players do their best in set roles and for pitchers that is knowing they'll be used in certain situations and being told that by the manager well ahead of time.  So for situational (R/L) the Jays have Jeffress/Loup for the 5/6/7th innings, Delabar/Cecil for the 7/8th.  For long relief odds are pre-game Rogers and Redmond are well aware of which will be called on.  Santos knows to just plan on the 9th inning and maybe the 8th if the others get in trouble.
Original Ryan - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#284117) #
Well, the question becomes does the manager already have roles planned. Generally it is best if the pitchers know what to expect so they can be ready to go when needed.

Roles can be defined in a variety of ways, so I'd argue that the question becomes whether the manager defined the bullpen roles correctly. A role can be defined based on the game situation and leverage. The inning doesn't need to be the primary consideration.

85bluejay - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#284118) #
Kansas city and Baltimore defences really elevated their pitching staffs last year, so in that context I was happy that Diaz, the Jays best defensive SS was called up rather than the popular Kawasaki - the pitching staff upon whom this season rest needs as much support as possible.

I like Eduardo Nunez, I think he may be a good change of scenery guy, I think his defense is better than the stage fright of New York indicated - unfortunately, I don't think the Yankees will allow him to go to an AL East team. He would be a good bench guy.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#284119) #
Gibbons, like pretty much all managers, has not defined roles primarily by leverage.  It starts with the closer, whose role is to pitch the ninth in a save situation or in a tie at home, whether it be a high leverage one run or tie game or a low leverage three run game.  You then basically work backwards with inning, leverage and matchups playing parts in the manager's decision.

The first week or two is a bit different.  The starting pitchers are still getting into throwing 5 innings plus, and so modestly shorter outings are to be expected (like last night's game arguably).  Working in the bullpen's favour is Monday off-days for all of April.  All of that means that you might very well give the relievers more work now than you would in June, and push Loup (for instance) into a lower leverage role than you might in June.  Presumably Redmond and Cecil will follow Buehrle tonight with Santos there if needed.  Ideally, I want somebody available to throw 2-3 innings behind McGowan on Friday, and it looks like it might be Rogers, unless Redmond comes in for 2-3 batters only.

This is not how I would run a bullpen.  Your best reliever (let's call him Casey Janssen) can deal with knowing that he will be in the game in the most important situations in the game, whether they occur in the eighth or ninth innings.  If it is better that they come into the game with a clean slate, they come into the game in high leverage situations at the beginning of the eighth or ninth innings. Ideally, you have two other relievers, one left-handed (call him Brett Cecil) and another right-handed (call him Sergio Santos) who take highest leverage situations where Janssen is unavailable and medium leverage situations depending on matchups and workload (these may occur in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings and may, egads, include some save situations).  You have two other relievers (call them Esmil Rogers and Aaron Loup) who work lower leverage and medium leverage situations and may throw a couple of innings anywhere from the sometime in the 5th inning to the 9th inning.  You have one or two other relievers (call them Todd Redmond and Jeremy Jeffress), one of whom does mop-up duty and the other of whom does the long relief (often 3-4 innings plus).  As it currently stands Sergio Santos is "Casey Janssen" and Steve Delabar is "Sergio Santos". 

One of the pluses of Gibbons' approach last night was that he got 1.2 innings out of Loup and reduced "appearance stress" on the pen.  It's definitely a balancing act.



ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#284120) #
I think Loup was selected because it was the 6th inning.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#284121) #

Hutch looked great last night.  I am very happy about that.

Not too look too far down the schedule, but this weekend they have McGowan, Dickey and Hutch vs the Yankees.  In order for the Jays to have any success this year, we have to win against our division.  If we can end up 4-3 for the week, I would be very optomistic.

 

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#284122) #
I think Loup was selected because it was the 6th inning.

I am pretty sure that there was more to it than that.  If the Rays had 3 RHBs coming up, it probably would have been Redmond or Delabar. 
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#284123) #
I am impressed that Gibbons didn't slavishly stick to the old 100 pitch limit, but instead felt Hutch hit a limit and pulled him despite the 0 runs. 3 walks in 5 1/3 IP is higher than it should be and hints that he didn't have his best control, although 50-33 strike-ball count does sound good.

Yep, hutch was struggling with his fastball command, which makes his performance all that much more impressive.

What I love is how two games in a row we've seen decent offense from guys who were supposed to be in Buffalo right now - first Kratz with the home run yesterday and Diaz driving in the 4th run today. Funny how that works sometimes. A big positive also is the Jays getting more walks than they gave up.

This applies more to sports with strict salary caps, but even in baseball i've always endorsed the theory that with the bottom roster spots, unless you have clear quality options you should load up on as many borderline options as you can, and be willing to rotate through them without playing favorites - chances are you'll find a hot bat in there somewhere, as long as you don't stubbornly stick with one guy.

It's an underrated part of how the rays do it - they usually have a number of bench options (sometimes even key starting spots like 1b/dh), and often they end up demoting the favorite and going with a different hotter bat instead. They don't put up with sustained underperformance from these borderline guys for very long before giving another guy a shot.

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#284124) #
I am pretty sure that there was more to it than that. If the Rays had 3 RHBs coming up, it probably would have been Redmond or Delabar.

You may be right Mike, but I suspect that Delabar is unlikely to be used in the 6th with Janssen out, and Redmond is less likely than Loup to be used in a close game that they're leading that late. I think he brought Loup in at that point in the inning to switch Zobrist around.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#284125) #
Hutchison did well his first two times through the order last night. I think the timing of his removal was to avoid a third.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#284126) #
4-0 with the tying run in the on-deck circle in the 6th inning is too high leverage for Redmond vs. Loup with a platoon advantage?  I would hope that Gibbons wouldn't thnk that way.  I cannot remember Loup ever coming in to face 3 RHBs, but maybe that is my memory.

The Rays have made a Gomes-like deal with Chris Archer. The deal is signed at an earlier stage than Ricky Romero's was, so the dollar figures are better for the Rays, bearing in mind salary inflation since 2010. 

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#284127) #
Hutchison did well his first two times through the order last night. I think the timing of his removal was to avoid a third.

He had faced Matt Joyce the third time and walked him on a very, very close 3-2 pitch, and gotten Wil Myers to fly out weakly to right field immediately before he was pulled.  If you are going to pull him on the "3rd time through the order" basis, why not bring in Loup to face Joyce, Myers and Zobrist?  I don't think that was it either.  It's early in the season and after Myers, Hutchison was, I guess, near his limit.  I imagine that Gibbons felt that he would be passed it by the time he got to Longoria so he decided to make the move when he did. It's a judgment call. 
hypobole - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#284128) #
Earlier I asked when Hutch last threw 83 pitches in a game. Regular season was June 9 2012, but I have no idea how many he threw ion his spring starts. He's coming off TJ. Tired arms have more chance of injury. Do you pull him after he tires, meaning he throwing pitches with a tired arm? Or do you pull him before he tires? Gibbons went the cautious route, and I can't disagree.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#284129) #
One thing last night proved again to me is my preference for high-control RP like janssen, cecil, and loup over crazy-K guys like Santos and Delabar.

Not that i don't like having those guys, but man i feel much more comfortable with the other guys.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#284130) #
Interesting to look at MLB Trade Rumours about the Jays signing Juan Francisco as the Brewer fans all think he will be another EE or Bautista here.  Seems far fetched, but is there something there?
  • All 3 failed (defensively) at third base
  • All 3 traded at age 26 or 27
  • Age 26 figures...
    • Francisco 227/296/422 -0.7 bWAR
    • Encarnacion 225/320/410 0 bWAR
    • Bautista 254/339/414 (238/313/405 the next year is closer) -0.6 WAR at 26, -0.1 at 27
  • Age 29 Bautista & EE exploded. 

Big difference is Francisco K's a lot more while walking less.  Another big difference is there is nowhere to put Francisco right now outside of AAA.  Francisco would need to stay down almost the whole year to lose a free agent year (2 years 156 days ML experience so has to stay down until September) which I doubt will happen thus a free agent after 4 more years including this one which means the Jays would get his age 27/28/29/30 seasons thus following EE/Bautista they'd get 2 great years and 2 blech ones.

Now, in spring Francisco did hit well - 346/500/731 vs 8.9 quality (mid way between majors and AAA).  Seems odd that he'd have that hot a spring and be cut so Lyle Overbay could play.  Could the Jays be looking to dump Lind on someone and put Francisco in at DH/1B/3B (ala Encarnacion)?  Would you want to?  In 2014 I'd expect Lind to out hit him, but in 2015 who knows?

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#284131) #
Francisco is 6'2", 240.  He's a got more bulk than Edwin and doesn't have Edwin's contact ability.  He does seem likely to be able to hit RHPs acceptably well and play good enough defence at third to be a nice platoon partner for Izturis in the event of an injury to Lawrie. 

Nice pickup.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#284132) #
Edwin & Bautista both had solid plate discipline in their early years, while Francisco offers only a slight improvement on JP Arencibia.

Anything's possible, but I'd guess he's just a backup who won't get out of AAA unless something happens to Lind.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#284133) #
Re: Francisco- I reiterate that this is the kind of system upgrade that we should have been looking for all offseason. I don't think he will be a 4 WAR player (as was insinuated above) but he does leave us slightly more of a margin for error with the season. Up until yesterday we didn't have anything resembling a plan B should Lawrie go down. Now there is at least something that could buy us a couple of weeks.

If we could have found a 2B/SS, LF and SP equivalent -Kevin Frandsen comes to mind as one option- then I think that the criticism of AA would have been slightly less vocal.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#284134) #
Realistically, yeah the odds of him being like EE or Bautista is in the sub 2% range.  However, it is funny to see other teams fans thinking the Jays have a magic potion to change power hitting 3B who cannot field into star hitters.  Once was a fluke, twice could be a trend, thrice would be 'woohoo - give us all your poor fielding power hitting 3B'.

Hopefully it is a sign that AA is working on building some minor league depth again via guys who are out of chances elsewhere but could be valuable pieces.  Or it might just be a forgotten move by June.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#284136) #
Do people remember our discussion of Inside Edge fielding?  Here's an example of (what surely must be) a 1-10% play from last night.  Tulowitzki had 20 such plays in 2012-13 and converted one of them. 
Mylegacy - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#284137) #
Lineup for today just released:

Cabrera, Rasmus, Bautista, EE, Navarro, Sierra, Lawrie, Izturis, Diaz

Only lefty is Rasmus.

Brief note on Hutch last night: I loved his performance - but - he still looked a bit scared against left handed batters. Briefer note on Navarro: I think I'm falling in love with the guy (please don't tell "She who must be obeyed" - she's got a vicious left hook when provoked).

Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#284138) #
It's a bit crazy to have Rasmus hitting 2nd vs a lefty. I'd like to see Lawrie in there, as I really like the idea of him hitting near the top of the lineup.
Intricated - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#284139) #
FanGraph's new Game Odds (factoring in depth charts, lineups, and home team advantage) is pretty neat.  With both starters and lineups now posted on their scoreboard, the Rays have a 56.5% chance to win tonight.  Removing the built-in 4% home team advantage, where could the Jays on paper gain another 2-3% to even/surpass the Rays?  Is replacing Navarro or Sierra with Kratz the solution?  What about if we tack on Kawasaki and dump Jeffress?  Maybe also Escobar comes down with the flu, shifting Zobrist to SS, Rodriguez to 2B,  Foresythe to LF, and Guyer in at DH?

Oh, the fun.

SP: Mark Buehrle
1. Melky Cabrera (LF)
2. Colby Rasmus (CF)
3. Jose Bautista (RF)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (1B)
5. Dioner Navarro (C)
6. Moises Sierra (DH)
7. Brett Lawrie (3B)
8. Maicer Izturis (2B)
9. Jonathan Diaz (SS)

SP: Matt Moore
1. Desmond Jennings (CF)
2. Wil Myers (RF)
3. Ben Zobrist (2B)
4. Evan Longoria (3B)
5. Logan Forsythe (DH)
6. James Loney (1B)
7. Sean Rodriguez (LF)
8. Jose Molina (C)
9. Yunel Escobar (SS)
Lylemcr - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#284141) #

How does he look scared against left-handers? 

 

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#284142) #
It is strange, Ryan.  I checked Rasmus' record against Matt Moore.  It's a small sample but .100/.182/.100 with 5Ks in 11 PAs would normally be enough to persuade a manager to respect the usual platoon issues and get someone like Rasmus out of the 2 hole where there are better options. 
Mylegacy - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#284143) #
- he looks scared against lefties by throwing way to many pitches well outside to them...
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#284144) #
Seeing 2 ex-Jays at the bottom of the Rays lineup makes me wonder what an ex-Jay lineup would look like...
CA: Molina, JPA, Yan Gomes, Jeff Mathis (signed for 2015!), John Buck
1B: Lyle Overbay
2B:Aaron Hill, Bonifacio,Marco Scutaro
3B: Jayson Nix
SS:Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, John McDonald,Alex Gonzalez
LF: Travis Snider, Reed Johnson
CF: Rajai Davis
RF: Alex Rios, Jayson Werth

Note: Werth is the furthest back we find an active player - for guys who left the Jays pre-2007 he is the only one still active with Reed Johnson the only guy who left after 2007 who is active.

Lots of catching and shortstop depth there.  FYI: d'Arnaud is 0-3 with 1 walk and 2 K's so far this year (he doesn't count since he never played up here).

So who on that list would help this year?  Clearly Hill at 2B (Scutaro is DL'ed), Gomes behind the plate.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#284145) #
With both starters and lineups now posted on their scoreboard, the Rays have a 56.5% chance to win tonight.

Monday, it was 42.1% Jays, 57.9% Rays.
Yesterday it was 40.7% Jays, 59.3 Rays.
 
Sounds like this is the easiest game for us yet :-)
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#284147) #
What about ex-Jay pitchers?
Starters...
Josh Johnson
Henderson Alvarez
Carlos Villanueva
A.J. Burnett

Relievers....
Brad Lincoln
Mickey Storey
David Carpenter
Jesse Chavez
Sam Dyson
Jason Frasor
Marc Rzepczynski
Scott Downs
Brandon League
Danny Farquhar (in Seattle's pen - I was sure he wasn't around anymore)

Geez, and I thought our current starting staff had holes.  Burnett was the longest since being a Jay (2008), then League (2009), then Downs (2010).  Amazing how few 1/2 decent pitchers have been through here who are still active.
James W - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#284148) #
Kelly Johnson's playing third base for the New York Yankees this season.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#284149) #
What a start by Buehrle. He and Navarro certainly seem to have good chemistry.
Parker - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#284150) #
By all means, pull Buehrle with one out to go in a 3-0 game. Well played, Gibbons.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#284151) #
Cecil for Santos.  Bravo.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#284152) #
Pulling Buehrle allowed Gibbons to get the matchups he wanted. No need to push his SP too far on day 3 of the season. Cecil tied up Joyce beautifully with some aggressive pitching inside.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#284153) #
Next time, Maddon might not substitute Joyce for Forsythe knowing that Gibbons is not tied to the "replacement closer" role.  It would be good if Gibbons took the same view even after Janssen returns. 
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#284154) #
Great game from buehrle. Dominant.

And for the second game in a row our guys were grinding outcat bats like the red sox, great to see.

Would be cool to start the year off with our first series win in TB in 7 yrs. Let's see if morrow's head is still stuck up his ass or not.

P.s. Cecil should be closing, not santos.
Oceanbound - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#284155) #
P.s. Cecil should be closing, not santos.

You don't want Cecil to close. He has pronounced splits which can be managed if you use him in appropriate situations, but you can't do this if you make him the closer. That's why nobody uses lefties as closers.

Also Santos was totally lights out when he came back last year.
Eephus - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#284156) #
That was fun. I bet you don't see too many 11 strikeout games from a pitcher whose fastball topped out at 82. (R.A. Dickey excluded)

Also nice to see Gibbons pull Santos for Cecil. It was the right matchup, glad to see it worked.

Chuck - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 06:31 AM EDT (#284157) #
Next time, Maddon might not substitute Joyce for Forsythe knowing that Gibbons is not tied to the "replacement closer" role.

Yep. Now I know why Loup came into the game two nights ago. It was all part of Gibbons' long con to convince Maddon that he didn't care about matchups. Last night was the payoff. Cecil against Joyce is a definite gotcha.

China fan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#284158) #
Quote of the day is from Jose Bautista (as quoted by Shi Davidi last night): "I could really get used to the chemistry that I see between our catcher and our pitchers."

Comments by Mark Buehrle this spring have hinted at the same thing. The new catcher is working better with the pitchers than his predecessor. It could be one of the keys to an improved rotation this year.
China fan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#284159) #
"....There are some posters here who seem to be on board with that philosophy - as if the team's terrible performance somehow doesn't count, insisting that the organization's glaring lack of depth exposed by injury-prone players is just bad luck and that nobody is to blame for it...."

There are also some posters who prefer to wait for more than one game of the season before making generalizations about "terrible performance."
John Northey - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#284160) #
China fan- interesting comment there from Bautista. Sure says a lot (not good) about JPA.  I wonder if the Jays are focusing a lot more on defense this year?  Calling up Diaz, using Thole over Kratz, Goins at 2B.  Also more platooning with Goins/Izturis and Lind/Sierra.  Might just be using who is there but also might be a sign that Gibbons and AA adjusted after last years mess where defense was a disaster and the rotation followed.

FYI: through 3 games the Jays have a 667 OPS, 12th in ML 8th in AL with a 3.81 ERA (11th AL, 22nd ML).  Not a good set of figures but not disasters either which was the fear after Dickey's start.  Jimenez allowed 4 runs in his start in 6 IP, Samardzija had 7 shutout innings (the guy the Cubs wanted Sanchez + for) and Santana hasn't had a start yet.  It'll be interesting to keep an eye on those guys and see how they do vs Hutchison / McGowan.

greenfrog - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#284162) #
Kazmir is off to a great start, with a game score of 77 yesterday against Cleveland.
China fan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#284163) #
John, yes, I totally agree, the Jays have clearly decided to prioritize their defence this year. And the defence was a key contributor to both of their wins this year. It's definitely a dramatic shift in strategy from last year. It's a good way of maximizing the capacities of the starting pitchers. But we might still get frustrated when the Jays start losing those 2-1 games or 3-2 games. Pitching is not enough if there are too many sinkholes in the lineup. The team's success will, yes, depend on pitchers like R. A. Dickey this season (he's got to get it together), but it will still depend on whether hitters like Rasmus and Encarnacion and Lawrie can hit as well as they're capable of.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#284164) #
The season is young, but the first-place (!) Jays have benefited from Gibbons' upping his managerial game.  Platooning Izturis and Goins confers an offensive advantage and a defensive cost over Goins playing every day, but the trade-off is well worth it.  The loosening (or better yet, restructuring) of rigid unwise roles in the bullpen is also a good thing.  No one wants Gibbons to try to be Joe Maddon, but it is good if he thinks somewhat creatively about the game.

Last night, Sierra DHed rather than Kratz.  I understand the desire to get Sierra in a game, but I wonder about using your only backup OF as a DH from a game perspective.  One minor injury to an outfielder and you end up having the pitcher bat. The whole 3rd catcher/middle infield/back-up OF/Jeremy Jeffress situation could be revisited again when Janssen (and later Reyes) return.



Parker - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#284166) #
There are also some posters who prefer to wait for more than one game of the season before making generalizations about "terrible performance."

I was actually talking about 2013, which was a full 162-game season of "the Jays only sucked because they had so many injuries. Since those injuries are never going to happen again, they're a contender in 2014 with the same roster."

You're still free to argue whether adding almost $40M to the payroll in order to secure one more win on the season counts as a terrible performance, I suppose.
JB21 - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#284167) #
Mike, Diaz can play the OF so you could bring in Goins to play SS and leave Sierra in the DH slot.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#284168) #
"… Since those injuries are never going to happen again, they're a contender in 2014 with the same roster."

I'm guessing no one anywhere ever has said this.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#284169) #
I agree with you Mike, I think Gibbons has upped his managerial game - hope it continues.
Regarding Sierra, Gibbons has made clear that he is not a fan of having a rookie, Sierra as a bench bat - I think Kratz will be in against C.C - If Tuiasosopo and/or Francisco get off to a good start, I expect one or both to eventually be bench bats - Sierra is on a short leash

BTW, I know he has injury concerns, but I watched part of Matt Garza start and he was terrific.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#284170) #
I suppose you could do that, JB21.  Diaz hasn't played the outfield since 2009 when he had 3 games in left-field for New Hampshire.  That is the extent of his pro experience there.  Or you could move Izturis to the outfield.  He had 1 game in centerfield in 2005 and one in left-field in 2009. 

Anyways, they've called up Kratz because of all the lefties they are facing and it would make sense to give him a start as a DH, perhaps when Sabathia faces Hutchison on Sunday.

Paul D - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#284171) #
Kazmir's also looking good.

On the flip side, Hutch and Buerhle have been great, so I'm not going to worry about it.
Dave Till - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#284175) #

Quote of the day is from Jose Bautista (as quoted by Shi Davidi last night): "I could really get used to the chemistry that I see between our catcher and our pitchers."

Good pitch calling and "chemistry" is especially helpful for Buehrle - I seem to recall reading that he always just throws what his catcher tells him to throw.

Navarro looks like a catcher (as opposed to just being some guy who squats behind the plate with a mask on, but isn't really a catcher). This is a good thing.

The Jays are 2-1 against Tampa Bay in the Evil Orange Dome, and the Yankees have lost twice to the Houston Astros. Life is not all that bad at the moment.

China fan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#284176) #
"....You're still free to argue whether adding almost $40M to the payroll in order to secure one more win on the season counts as a terrible performance, I suppose..."

I think anyone would argue with the proposition that you can simply "buy wins" by adding money to the payroll.

I hope you're not defining "terrible performance" as a matter purely of the ratio between wins and dollars. Decades of big-spending teams have shown that there are many other factors involved.
uglyone - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#284177) #
"No one wants Gibbons to try to be Joe Maddon"

Speak for yourself, mike! There's nothing i'd rather see, to be honest.

And i absolutely loved that gibbons outbattled maddon not once but twice last night - both times making aggressive moves that ended up getting the jays the favorable matchup in every at bat. That was beautiful to watch.

And i know his fluky championship ring earns him credit, but Farrell was always horrific at this part of managing. Somehow, someway, no matter who we were playing, farrell always managed to lose these matchup battles and end up with lind facing a loogy or cecil facing the left masher off the bench. Every time. It was infuriating.

I've always been a gibby fan, as imo he's always been good managing a 'pen and using platoons, and he seems tomhave a demeanour that would make players want to play for him.....but it seems like he's really letting loose this year and not holding back at all from putting his imprint on the team and on the games. While he didn't neglect it in the past, this year so far he's been maddon-esque with his hitting platoons, aggressive bullpen usage, and defensive shifts - and this goes right back to the start of training camp, where he also caught my eye by not messing around and pretty much using his regulars game in game out.

If this is what we have in store for us this year from gibby, i'll be a very happy camper.

It's a manager's job to play the percentages, and doing that can easily make a multiple win difference by the end of the year.
Eephus - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#284179) #
It's a manager's job to play the percentages

Mr. Burns: That's what good managers do to win ballgames.

Strawberry: But I've hit nine home runs today!


Sorry, couldn't resist.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#284180) #
With another 2 hits today, Bonifacio has opened the season 11-19 for the Cubs.  He's stolen 4 bases in his first 3 games too.  He has also been intentionally walked and he hasn't struck out.  His swing is much more of a quick slash than last year.  It's a bit of a throwback, and a bit counterintuitive for a player who has moved from turf into the grass of Wrigley.  But if it works, nobody will argue.
Gerry - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#284181) #
Apparently Bonifacio has also been picked off twice and it could have been three times but the 1B dropped the ball.

Another ex-Jay Adeiny Hechavarria is hitting 500 (SSS).
uglyone - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#284182) #
There really is no explaining how all of JJ, morrow, izturis, boni, JPA went from useful/good to unplayably horrific last year, all at once.

None of us should be surprised when they all bounce back to career norms this year.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#284183) #
Tonight, Gibbons is sending out Goins at short and Izturis at second, behind Morrow and facing a RHP.  This is an offence-first choice (you could go with Diaz at short and Goins at second as Gibbons did when Hutchison faced Cobb).  Presumably, Morrow's flyball tendencies played a role. 
uglyone - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#284185) #
Nice.

Izturis is still our best bet at having above-replacement value at 2b, and last year is the only year he's been awful defensively.

He looks like an mlber again this year, though, and he might just have given himself the inside edge for the fulltime job with his solid start.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#284189) #
Archer is an excellent young talent. It will be very impressive if the Jays can beat him tonight.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#284190) #
If the Jays go on to lose this one (fairly likely), a 2-2 trip through TB is still very respectable, especially sans Reyes.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#284191) #
Way too early.  They've been working Archer very well. Down 2 after 4 with the opposing pitcher at 70 pitches is just an opportunity...
China fan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#284193) #
Weird story by Ken Rosenthal about some Jays players allegedly offering to defer their salaries to make it easier for the Jays to acquire Ervin Santana. Rosenthal usually has good sources, so there's probably something to this report. But he contradicts himself in the story by quoting an agent who says the player union would never have allowed the salary deferrals. Despite this, Rosenthal confirms that the Jays offered $14-million to Santana. So how does this make sense? If the deferrals wouldn't have been allowed by the union, and if the Jays were able to offer $14-million to Santana anyway, then the proposed deferrals could not have been a factor at all. (Earlier reports, by the way, indicate that Santana verbally agreed to the $14-million and then backed out of the deal when the Braves came knocking.)

Here's the Rosenthal report:
com/mlb/story/blue-jays-players-were-willing-to-push-back-pay-to-land-santana-040314
China fan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#284194) #
Correct link for the Rosenthal report:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/blue-jays-players-were-willing-to-push-back-pay-to-land-santana-040314
greenfrog - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#284195) #
Way too early

Calling it the way I see it (note the qualifier: "fairly likely").
JB21 - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#284196) #
Down 2 in the 8th and you have Esmil Rogers in the game. Why?
Original Ryan - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#284197) #
Weird story by Ken Rosenthal about some Jays players allegedly offering to defer their salaries to make it easier for the Jays to acquire Ervin Santana. Rosenthal usually has good sources, so there's probably something to this report. But he contradicts himself in the story by quoting an agent who says the player union would never have allowed the salary deferrals. Despite this, Rosenthal confirms that the Jays offered $14-million to Santana. So how does this make sense?

I don't see a contradiction. Rosenthal states that it's unclear whether the discussions about salary deferral were initiated by the players or management. If the idea was hatched by the players, it's possible they perceived the team's financial situation differently than it actually was. It's also possible the players were unaware that a salary deferral is something the union would find problematic.

TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#284198) #
Down 2 in the 8th and you have Esmil Rogers in the game. Why?

The 7th, but yeah. With Loup, Cecil, and Delabar all presumably available.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#284199) #
It's a judgment call- down 2, away in the bottom of the 7th is a pretty low leverage situation.  Checking Tango's charts, entering the bottom of the 7th it is 0.4.  Yep, that's Esmil Rogers time.  Mind you, the Longoria at-bat with runners on 1st and 3rd, 2 outs is a 0.9 and you can make a case for Delabar. 
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#284200) #
It's a judgment call- down 2, away in the bottom of the 7th is a pretty low leverage situation. Checking Tango's charts, entering the bottom of the 7th it is 0.4. Yep, that's Esmil Rogers time. Mind you, the Longoria at-bat with runners on 1st and 3rd, 2 outs is a 0.9 and you can make a case for Delabar.

I'm not sure what those numbers represent, but if the situation were reversed -- up by two in the 7th or 8th inning -- Rogers wouldn't have been pitching, especially, as you mentioned, with a two-on, two-out situation. A two-run game's a two-run game, so even when behind you want one of your better pitchers out there.
JB21 - Thursday, April 03 2014 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#284201) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-buehrles-perfect-imperfect-game/

Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
Dave Till - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#284202) #
I'm okay with Rogers in that situation. Save the better pitchers for the Yankees series.

Something I noticed, before I gave up on last night's game: Adam Lind made three excellent picks at first base in the early innings. It didn't make a difference in the end, but Lind's fielding saved two runs in the second inning.

China fan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#284204) #
"....If the idea was hatched by the players, it's possible they perceived the team's financial situation differently than it actually was...."

Yes, that's the contradiction that I was referring to. Rosenthal doesn't challenge the widely reported claim that the Jays had a verbal agreement with Santana for $14-million. In fact he confirms that the Jays made the offer to Santana. So it seems that the Jays were able to afford $14-million for Santana, yet apparently some players perceived that the Jays might be unable to afford him. It's odd. It suggests that Rosenthal is wrong to leave the impression that the players were "passing the hat" to help a cash-strapped team.

But even if we're in the realm of perception, rather than reality, I agree that it's worrisome if some players seemed to believe that the Jays couldn't afford Santana. What gave them that impression? Is there some penny-pinching behind the scenes that we don't know about? It does lend credence to the notion that Rogers is unfairly squeezing the payroll. I've always said that the owners should be investing more in the payroll of this team, and I'm concerned that some players have detected a penny-pinching attitude that this team should not have.
Mike Green - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#284205) #
TangledUpinBlue,  here's a link  to a Tango Hardball Times article which explains leverage. There is a link to the situational leverage charts at the bottom of the article. You'll see in the charts that it makes a huge difference whether the home team is ahead by 2 or behind by 2 entering the bottom of the seventh.  As I said, the leverage with the home team ahead by 2 is 0.4, whereas the leverage with the home team down by 2 is 1.6.  There's no way that Rogers goes as long as he does if the score was reversed.

By the way, I love the user name.  "PositivelyFrontStreet" wouldn't be near as good.
John Northey - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#284206) #
I wouldn't worry about the players 'passing around the hat'. It is something that top salaried players on teams have done for about as long as competitive baseball has existed. Regardless of team wealth, players will do things like that as an effort to encourage the club to sign someone they think will help them win. As I recall Mike Schmidt did that with the Phillies in the 80's to try to get them to sign Jack Morris or Lance Parrish (during the collusion era).
Intricated - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#284208) #
Those numbers are from the Leverage Index, which is explained on FanGraphs as "a measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango."  The Jays starting the bottom of the 7th last night is considered to be only 40% (the 0.4) as important as a "neutral" situation in a game.  Hence, what happens in that situation is considered to not have an impact to the game.  Once it got to 1st and 3rd and 2 out, it was more meaningful, but slightly less (10%) than neutral.

Some players are better suited to certain leverage situations.  Maybe they aren't that good or they aren't that good under pressure (or dare I say "unclutchy"); one can argue Esmil Rogers is a low leverage relief pitcher.

If the away team is up by two in the bottom of the 7th, the Leverage Index is 1.6.  In the 8th, 1.8.  If that happened, you would have very likely seen a high leverage RP out there, like a Delabar... assuming availability/matchups/etc. are favourable.
Mike Green - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#284209) #
Fangraphs has the back-story on the trade of Yan Gomes, which I missed at the time.  Kevin Cash had been a scout for the Blue Jays and moved to the Indians shortly before the trade and filed a glowing report on Gomes' defensive abilities.

It's funny.  I had always thought (and said here several times) that d'Arnaud would have developed better as a hitter had he been moved out from behind the plate, and that he had the tools to play several positions.  It might have worked out better from a number of perspectives.
Original Ryan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#284210) #
So it seems that the Jays were able to afford $14-million for Santana, yet apparently some players perceived that the Jays might be unable to afford him. It's odd. It suggests that Rosenthal is wrong to leave the impression that the players were "passing the hat" to help a cash-strapped team.

I'm sorry, but I still don't see how Rosenthal is contradicting himself or was somehow wrong to leave that impression. The facts, according to Rosenthal, are 1) some Blue Jays players were willing to defer their salary (or "pass the hat") to help sign Santana, and 2) the team made a substantial offer to Santana, apparently without the assistance of the players. Based on the limited information we currently have, there is no reason why those two points can't both be true. When I read the article, I simply inferred that salary deferral proved to be unnecessary for whatever reason.

Rosenthal never says the Blue Jays are, in fact, cash-strapped. Had he done so and then gone on to say that the team offered $14 million to Santana, that would be contradictory. Instead he states that the salary deferral discussions "raise new questions about the Jays' payroll flexibility for 2014," which they most certainly do. I'm not trying to be dense or argumentative here, but I honestly don't see the problem with what Rosenthal wrote.

As for why the players may have perceived that the team was having financial difficulties, it could be a sign of bigger problems, but it could also be something as simple as poor communication between management and the players. It's possible the players were in the same boat as fans during the offseason -- they saw how the team didn't make any significant acquisitions and wondered why that was the case. Truthfully it sounds like one or more players concocted a harebrained scheme that just happened to gain a bit of traction in the clubhouse. Until we know more, I'm not going to read much into this story.

uglyone - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#284211) #
Rogers and jeffress really don't deserve to be on this team. They never earned their spots.
John Northey - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#284214) #
A reminder it could always be worse...
NY Mets: 0-3, d'Arnaud is now 0 for 9 (2 walks 5 K's),  11 pitchers used but just 3 are starters so far.
Arizona: 1-5 record, 14 pitchers used (4 starters)
Angels: 0-3, 2 regulars yet to get a hit

For the Jays, 10 pitchers used.  Redmond, McGowan the only ones yet to get into a game. Goins, Sierra and Reyes the only hitters with a hit (Reyes 0-1, Sierra 0-5, Goins 0-11.  Currently 3rd in runs scored despite being 10th in OPS.  Teams ERA is 12th.

China fan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#284217) #
"....Truthfully it sounds like one or more players concocted a harebrained scheme that just happened to gain a bit of traction in the clubhouse. Until we know more, I'm not going to read much into this story..."

Yes, I agree, this is a likely explanation of what happened, but it contradicts the first paragraph of the Rosenthal article. I'm not sure why you are disagreeing with my original post. We agree about this. The "contradiction" (if that's the correct word) is between the first paragraph of the story and the later details in the same story. The clear implication given by the first paragraph -- about "passing the hat", which implies that the team couldn't afford Santana -- is clearly contradicted by the later admission that the team could in fact afford Santana.

Hare-brained or not, some players did perceive that the team couldn't afford Santana. It was a wrong perception, but I still think it lends credence to the larger point that the ownership has restricted spending this year. It would have been logical, as many people have noted, to build on the 2013 acquisitions by acquiring another couple of key players this year: a starting pitcher, a 2B or whatever. The Jays didn't do the logical thing. They offered $14-million to Santana but they didn't make a serious bid for Jimenez or Tanaka or Drew. I suspect that the owners are the reasons for that. Can't be proven, but the argument is supported by bits and pieces of clues -- like the Rosenthal article.
Mike Green - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#284218) #
Rogers had an ERA of 4.35 last year as a reliever and 4.89 as a starter.  It is entirely reasonable for him to be with the club in a long relief/emergency starter role.  Jeffress is a whole other story. 
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#284220) #
Intricated, thanks for the explanation. Thanks, Mike, as well -- I don’t think I’ve seen those charts before. The situation I was thinking of as similar to yesterday’s (bottom of the 7th, down by two on the road) was top of the eighth, up by two at home. In the latter case, every manager would have one of his better relievers out on the mound. But that situation is also relatively low leverage (0.6). It’s slightly higher than yesterday’s situation, of course, because the trailing team has an equal number of at-bats remaining, rather than one fewer at-bat remaining as yesterday. But still low-leverage. I guess the question is where the dividing line should be (in terms of leverage) between your quality relievers and your not-so-quality relievers. In last night’s game, at any rate, given the rest everyone but Santos had the night before, I still would’ve had Delabar or Cecil out there. Not a huge deal, though, I acknowledge that.
dalimon5 - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#284222) #
Mike,

I think you may be missing the point. It's not that Rogers doesn't have the stuff or history to warrant a position on this team, it's that there's better pitchers who deserve his position on this team more than he does. Therefore, options notwithstanding, he really shouldn't be on this team at this point.
Mike Green - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#284224) #
I must have missed something.  Who do you think ought to have supplanted Jeffress and Rogers?  Stroman? Stilson? Sanchez? I don't recall anybody suggesting that someone other than Rogers ought to have been in the bullpen, but maybe I am forgetting something.  Maybe when Janssen comes back from the DL, you could go with a 6 man pen but frankly that doesn't seem terribly likely. 
Ryan Day - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#284225) #
I'd say Rogers proved his worth last year with his ability to pitch out of the pen in long relief, or fill in as a starter when needed. I can't think of any clearly superior options for his role in the organization.
China fan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#284226) #
MIke, thank you for making that point. People are scapegoating Rogers and Jeffress too readily at this point. Pitchers such as Wagner or Stilson have potential, but there's no evidence that they are superior. Stilson in particular needs a little more experience in the minors. Wagner is good for a couple of outs, but Rogers and Jeffress have a two-inning capability that Wagner lacks.
China fan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#284227) #
Beeston is now semi-confirming that Rosenthal story about the players suggesting a deferral of their salaries. More hints that the problem is the ownership, not Anthopoulos, when we are seeking explanations for the failure to acquire free agents.
bpoz - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#284229) #
Good point to discuss. Who earned a job on this team? Maybe not a heated discussion. But time will tell.

My short and IN-complete list. Janssen in the pen & Dickey in the rotation based on last year. Hutch earns a spot in the rotation based on ST this year.
I cannot see anyone that got hurt by options this year.
Mike Green - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#284230) #
As you know, CF, I don't think of Jeffress and Rogers in the same boat.  Rogers is a pitcher who has a track record of performance in a low-to-medium leverage role and is capable of throwing a few innings. Jeffress does not have that track record, and I can certainly understand people who feel that Wagner would like be a better pitcher than Jeffress in a 1 inning role based on performance and ought to have the spot while Janssen is on the DL.  With Rogers and Redmond already in the bullpen, there really isn't a need for a 3rd long reliever.
China fan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#284231) #
I think Jeffress vs Wagner is a toss-up. I don't see clear superiority for either. (I'm not portraying Jeffress as a long reliever, just noting that he has a track record in spring training of going multiple innings, which Wagner does not do. But Wagner admittedly has better control.)
Ryan Day - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#284232) #
I don't know if Jeffress really has a track record of multiple innings. In his admittedly short MLB career, he's pitched 51 innings in 49 games. Last year in the minors, it was 32 innings in 28 games. He was a bit more resilient in 2012, with 59 innings in 38 games.

I'd suggest that his lack of control makes him a poor choice for multiple inning stints - he's going to need 20-30 pitches per inning.

I'd guess Jeffress has until Janssen is healthy to prove he can cut it in the majors. Or he might outlast Redmond, who appears to be the emergency option in case of a starter getting knocked out early - as the season goes on, he may grow less necessary.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#284234) #
I suppose one possibility is that the players were gathering the cash for a multi-year deal but in the end Santana was willing to settle for one year, which the team could afford.
uglyone - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#284235) #
"Who earned a job on this team?"

If we're talking about the backend of the bullpen, then the guys who "earned" a spot, imo, are redmond, stilson.......and, surprisingly, none other than Chaderick Jenkins.
uglyone - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#284236) #
"d'Arnaud is now 0 for 9 (2 walks 5 K's),"

Am i the only one wondering how this guy maintained "elite prospect" status coming into this year?

The guy is 25yrs old (oldest prospect in BA's top 100 by at least 2yrs), has well over 100pa of absolutely useless mlb offensive performance (.517ops), more worryingly is seemingly unable to catch up to mlb fastballs, not to mention that that even includes a bb% far better than anything he showed in the minors and is likely unsustainable given his unimpressive minor league bb history, and with only "good" not "great" defensive reviews to boot. Meanwhile his impressive AAA numbers were all produced in the comfy confines of las vegas.

I get that he has talent and gets the benefit of the doubt with his injuries, but you'd figure that a 25yr old would have to have shown much more than he has to still be considered an elite prospect.



uglyone - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#284241) #
E.Rogers (28), career:

As RP: 158.1ip, 8.4k/9, 3.7bb/9, 1.54whip, 5.46era
As SP: 220.2ip, 6.8k/9, 3.6bb/9, 1.61whip, 5.59era
In AAA: 144.2ip, 7.1k/9, 3.7bb/9, 1.62whip, 6.53era

J.Jeffress (26), career:

As RP: 51.1ip, 8.4k/9, 6.7bb/9, 1.75whip, 4.53era
As SP: ---
In AAA: 109.1ip, 9.3k/9, 4.6bb/9, 1.44whip, 4.61era

T.Redmond (29), career:

As RP: 7.2ip, 4.7k/9, 2.3bb/9, 0.91whip, 3.52era
As SP: 72.2ip, 9.2k/9, 3.2bb/9, 1.35whip, 4.71era
in AAA: 652.2ip, 7.7k/9, 2.5bb/9, 1.26whip, 3.83era

J.Happ (31), career:

As RP: 36.2ip, 8.4k/9, 4.2bb/9, 1.31whip, 4.17era
As SP: 646.0ip, 7.5k/9, 4.0bb/9, 1.40whip, 4.25era
In AAA: 313.0ip, 9.1k/9, 4.1bb/9, 1.39whip, 4.20era

N.Wagner (30), career:

As RP: 43.0ip, 7.7k/9, 3.3bb/9, 1.42whip, 4.19era
As SP: ---
In AAA: 116.2ip, 10.1k/9, 3.2bb/9, 1.36whip, 3.86era

M.Storey (28), career:

As RP: 34.1ip, 10.5k/9, 2.9bb/9, 1.28whip, 4.19era
As SP: ---
In AAA: 170.0ip, 10.0k/9, 2.5bb/9, 1.19whip, 3.18era

C.Jenkins (26), career:

As RP: 36.2ip, 4.2k/9, 2.0bb/9, 1.15whip, 3.44era
As SP: 28.2ip, 4.4k/9, 2.8bb/9, 1.33whip, 3.77era
In AAA: 21.2ip, 3.3k/9, 1.7bb/9, 1.71whip, 7.48era

J.Stilson (23), career:

As RP: ---
As SP: ---
In AAA: 48.0ip, 9.0k/9, 3.2bb/9, 1.13whip, 2.25era


Imho, rogers and jeffress should be way, way down the list.

AA has never seemed to accept the fundamental importance of BB rates, not for his pitchers, not for his hitters.
uglyone - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#284242) #
And as for rogers' 4.35era as an rp in 36ip last year, that came with a 4.92fip and 5.05xfip, telling us he was pretty lucky in that tiny sample size - which is further backed up by his RP ERAs of 4.69, 11.91, and 5.88 the previous 3yrs.

There's no reason to think he will give us an era significantly under 5, even as a low leverage reliever.
Mike Green - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#284243) #
Chad Jenkins vs. Esmil Rogers- lightning round.   Career unadjusted numbers for Rogers aren't really helpful because he pitched in Colorado most of his career.  He's had good walk/K numbers the last two years.  Both Jenkins and Rogers have had poor HR rates in the major leagues.

Jenkins wouldn't be a bad choice instead of Rogers, but the difference between the two seems to me to be pretty small one way or the other.  Jenkins' K rate has been so low that it is unlikely he would be able to sustain the performance level he has had to date, but I guess there is the possibility of a Dennis Lamp-like career.

uglyone - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#284244) #
I'm just tired of waiting for these veteran "big arms" to actually learn how to pitch. They get hot for a while and we think they've figured it out, but then they go right back to sucking because it was just a fluke stretch.

Esmil rogers is 28 and has never been a good pitcher. Not even in AAA.

Our best relievers are janssen and loup, not big arm guys in the least.

The red sox have done a great job of putting together a bullpen based on control and no walks, for example. Guys who know how to pitch. They've got one wild big arm guy in miller, and they keep him on a very tight leash.


And this goes for our SP as well. Buehrle and Hutch are a joy to watch, while watching morrow is excruciating. So tired of the scouting dreamboats, just give me guys who have a clue what they're doing out there.
Original Ryan - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#284245) #
Yes, I agree, this is a likely explanation of what happened, but it contradicts the first paragraph of the Rosenthal article. I'm not sure why you are disagreeing with my original post.

It wasn't clear in your original post that you were referring to the first paragraph of the article as the source of the contradiction. You cited several things from the article in your original post, but none of them were from the first paragraph. Further, none of the points you did cite in your original post were contradictory, and that is why I disagreed with your statement that Rosenthal had somehow contradicted himself.

The first paragraph was basically a clever/funny introduction and I don't think it was intended to be anything more than a throwaway line. Regardless, I'm glad to know we're basically on the same page on the article's substantive points.

Ryan Day - Friday, April 04 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#284248) #
As for why the players may have perceived that the team was having financial difficulties, it could be a sign of bigger problems, but it could also be something as simple as poor communication between management and the players

Or no communication at all. Anthopoulos seems tight-lipped to the point of paranoia about budget matters; perhaps he wasn't even sharing it with the players out of fear they'd leak it to all their agents.
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