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Your 2014 Toronto Blue Jays appear to be set now, unless a trade happens.


CA: Dioner Navarro, Josh Thole
1B: Edwin Encarnacion
2B: Ryan Goins
3B: Brett Lawrie
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Colby Rasmus
RF: Jose Bautista
DH: Adam Lind
IF: Maicer Izturis
OF: Moises Sierra

Starting Staff: R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan
Bullpen: Casey Janssen, Sergio Santos, Brett Cecil, Steve Delabar, Aaron Loup, Esmil Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Todd Redmond

DL: J.A. Happ (lower back tightness)
AAA or released: Matt Tuiasosopo, Erik Kratz

Via Twitter and other sources.  Jays twitter feed makes it official.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#283742) #
Is that a team that can realistically win the AL East? Wildcard?
China fan - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#283743) #
I like the rotation a lot. McGowan touched 98 mph in some of his pitches from the bullpen last year. Can you imagine if he's cranking it up to 98 this season, and then he's followed by Dickey in the next start in a series? Talk about keeping the opposition off-balance....

Reviewing McGowan's numbers from 2013, the stat that jumps out at me is this: he kept the opposition hitters to an OPS of .609 last season. If he can do anything like that in 2014, he's a great addition to the rotation.

I know that a lot of fans are predicting that McGowan's arm will "blow up" in the rotation, but let's admit that that prediction is purely speculation. The Jays have a battery of team doctors and trainers who focus on exactly those issues. It's their job, and they're professionals, and they know far more about it than we do in the stands. I can't imagine that they would let McGowan into the rotation if they think his arm will blow up. As for the predictions of health disaster: any pedestrian can get hit by a bus, but we don't sit at home and use the bus schedule to analyze the risk of it. Any disaster can happen, but -- after the Jays have analyzed McGowan's health and taken the usual precautions -- the outcome could be as random as a bus accident. You don't cancel the buses because something bad might randomly happen.
Original Ryan - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#283744) #
So the team has decided to go with a horrible 3-man bench in order to accommodate an unnecessary 8-man bullpen. Only this team would be concerned about a tired bullpen to start the year when it has four off-days in April and one of the closest AAA affiliates in baseball.

Starting the year off by watching Lind and Goins flailing helplessly at the likes of Price, Moore and Sabathia will be amusing.
China fan - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#283745) #
How is the 8-man bullpen unnecessary when McGowan is probably limited to 5 innings?
Paul D - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#283746) #
Is there any announcement regarding the DH versus LHP? I'm hoping that it's Sierra but worry that it could be Lind.
Chuck - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#283747) #
Starting the year off by watching Lind and Goins flailing helplessly at the likes of Price, Moore and Sabathia will be amusing.

While I agree that the team's short, weak bench is uninspiring, I imagine that those LHP would actually be facing Sierra and Izturis as presumed platoon mates for Lind and Goins. And they should flail a little less against LHP, though not be world beaters, of course.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#283750) #
So the team has decided to go with a horrible 3-man bench in order to accommodate an unnecessary 8-man bullpen

It's not like a 4-man bench would add a whole lot to the team, when the options available would be Kratz, Tuisasosopo, Kawasaki, or maybe Pillar. They haven't exiled some brilliant pinch hitter to AAA for the sake of one more reliever.
China fan - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#283752) #
The other point is that Gibbons just doesn't use pinch-hitters very often. And he honestly prefers to have plenty of bullpen options so that he can work the match-ups with specific opposition hitters. You can criticize his strategy if you want, but very little would change if a 4th hitter was added to the bench.

For what it's worth, I don't see Sierra or Izturis as "horrible" at all. Izturis is the classic back-up infielder. Every team has one, and they're never great offensive threats. Sierra is a pretty good hitter, and I'm keen to see how he progresses in the majors. The 3rd person on the bench is Thole, and I'd rather see Kratz, but I don't think it makes a huge amount of difference, given that Thole seems to be better at catching Dickey and that's his primary job.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#283753) #
Battle of the Ryans.  It undoubtedly will be more civilized than the War of the Roses.

With Reyes' hammy just as likely as not to keep him out from time to time, it sure would be nice to have an additional infielder instead of an 8th reliever.  In the other thread, I have suggested that Kratz would have been a better choice than Jeffress.  On sober second thought, I realize that actually the middle infield is more pressing.  It ought to be Kawasaki until Reyes actually plays in the games for a while. 



Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#283754) #
The other point is that Gibbons just doesn't use pinch-hitters very often. And he honestly prefers to have plenty of bullpen options so that he can work the match-ups with specific opposition hitters. You can criticize his strategy if you want, but very little would change if a 4th hitter was added to the bench.

You can blame Gibbons or Anthopoulos for the roster decisions.  In the long run though, it's Anthopoulos who has to own it.  He hired Gibbons, who might be a good manager for a club like the Big Red Machine, where the manager just runs out the starting nine and lets them tear the opposition to bits.  Gibbons isn't the right manager for this club. 

I remember the Big Red Machine and the only resemblance between this club and the BRM is the colour in the name. 
Paul D - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#283756) #
Mike, in defence of Gibbons, he's a pretty good at managing a pitching staff, which is something that this club needs.
Eephus - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#283757) #
A backup CF would be kinda nice too. Is Melky Cabrera really moving well enough that he can give you a game there every 10 days? Bautista? (Hey, he'd be the anti-Johnny Damon: great arm but little range).

I like Sierra's bat but putting him in centrefield for any period of time is going to be funny, and not "hah-hah" funny.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#283758) #
Roster minutiae aside, it's pretty amazing that McGowan has made it back to the starting rotation. Who knows how long he'll hold up, but I don't think anyone would have predicted he'd be a reasonable starting pitcher option after so many years of injuries, and it must be a medical miracle that he's still pitching in the mid-90s.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#283759) #
Casey Janssen makes this Team? When did he pitch? How did he pitch? Or does he start the Season on the DL? If he's on the DL, who's on the bench in his place?
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#283760) #
We are all hoping.  Maybe McGowan will be the second coming of Carpenter.  Pitchers can surprise you in all kinds of ways.
PeterG - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#283761) #
Too much is being made of Reyes slight hammy strain. Although he he has missed games here and there, he has only been on DL once for a hamstring and that was nearly 10 years ago.

according to baseball Reference:

Thole lifetime OBP (in majors) is .322 while Kratz . is .282

Don't be fooled by a hot spring. Thole deserves first shot.....
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#283762) #
Measuring Gibbons' handling of the pitching staff isn't that easy.  You would think that an important part of the job is (in conjunction with the pitching coach) keeping the starting pitchers healthy and performing in a way that is reasonably consistent with expectations.  I'd say that the results there weren't awe-inspiring. 

The BRM comp wasn't idle.  Sparky Anderson was hands-off with the lineup but was "Captain Hook" with his bullpen, and his best starting pitcher Don Gullett was healthy about 1/2 the time.  Sparky did get some good years from the bullpen, but if the lineup had not been great, the club would likely not have won.  You could say the same thing about his tenure with the Tigers, for that matter.

Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#283763) #
Here is a summary (in 2011) of Reyes' injury history.  With his serious left ankle injury last year, and this being his second go-round with a left hamstring strain, there is plenty of reason to worry.  It'd be awfully easy to hurt some other part of his left leg if he is not 100% when he returns. 
raptorsaddict - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#283764) #
I must say I'm a bit surprised about Kratz being cut, given his right handedness, decent defensive reputation and great spring. Presumably he just couldn't catch the knuckler at an appropriate level. I would have sent Thole to Buffalo and given Kratz at least 3 or 4 games with Dickey to see how he did.

As for McGowan starting, I'm all for it. It's not like there is any guarantee his arm won't explode pitching out of the pen. Given all he's been through, his Carpenter-esque upside, personal desire to be a starter, and outstanding spring, it's really a no-brainer.

Part of me also thinks that mentally, McGowan doesn't seem like he'd be content to just stick around in the majors to get as many paychecks as he can. He wants to either reach the potential for greatness that he knows is inside of him or go down trying. In a world where great starting pitchers are infinitely more difficult to find than relievers to pitch 50 innings, it's worth rolling the dice.

Lylemcr - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#283765) #

I like the starting staff and very happy for McGowan.  He has worked so hard to get back.  If he regains his stuff and is healthy, it could be incredible.

I like McGowan much better than E. Santana or other free agent options.  My only concern is the health of McGowan (and Morrow).  That is the million $ question for the starting staff.  The good news is that if one falters, we do have good options in Buffalo and maybe Stroman will be ready.

The bullpen is incredible.  IT will be one of the best in the league.

The hitting will be one of the best in the leaque.  It too depends on health. 

Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#283766) #
Thole lifetime OBP (in majors) is .322 while Kratz . is .282

I'm not sure Thole's lifetime numbers are meaningful any more - he just hasn't been the same since his concussion, and has hit only 218/284/277 over the past two years. (It's not a lot of games, but he hasn't looked very good subjectively, either)

Granted, I don't think Kratz is a slam dunk to be better - he has more power, but maybe Thole's ability to catch Dickey balances that out. You may as well start with Thole, and see if he can recover some of his old bat.
Oceanbound - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#283767) #
If you told me this would be the roster to start 2014 at the start of the offseason, I would have thought you were joking. How did we end up with almost the exact same roster, but with less depth?
Chuck - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#283768) #
If you told me this would be the roster to start 2014 at the start of the offseason, I would have thought you were joking.

I had a feeling this was going to be the picture after the off-season and am not surprised at all. I figured the organization would consider the FA pitching to be too expensive and would count on improved health, above all else, to improve on last year's record. It well might, but I see a .500 team, not much more.

John Northey - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#283769) #
Most likely the rotation will tell the tale this season.  If the 5 are healthy and productive the Jays will make the playoffs, if not then they won't and if buried in injuries ala last year then a top 10 pick is possible again.  All 5 could have ERA+'s over 110 if things break right (ie: all are healthy and none decide the strike zone is their enemy).  All 5 could be sub 100 (injuries, Dickey and Buehrle keep getting old in both age and skill set).  The range is far larger than most rotations the Jays have seen over the years.  It'd be interesting to look at a site like Baseball Prospectus and see what the range is for guys like Morrow, McGowan, and Hutchison - they have projections from 10% likely to happen negative to 10% likely to happen positive iirc and I figure the ranges should be scary big.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#283770) #
All kinds of interesting fliers becoming available with Scott Baker, Tommy Hanson etc..

So naturally we pick up Javy Guerra.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#283771) #
It well might, but I see a .500 team, not much more

Fangraphs has the Red Sox at 87 wins, the Rays at 84, the Yankees and Blue Jays at 83 and the Orioles at 78.  That was before the demotion of Kratz, which might knock about 1/2 win from the projection (it is a seasonal projection and Kratz may yet get the number of PAs that Fangraphs projects for him). 

It sure would have been nice if the club had made another marginal improvement beyond the catching.  The easy move was at second base.
Paul D - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#283772) #
I'm reading on mlbtraderumors that it was the White Sox who picked up Guerra.
Chuck - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#283773) #
The easy move was at second base.

I agree. And I was semi-expecting something to be done there. A Nick Franklin or someone. I may be the least enthused by Goins of anyone around here. A sub-600 OPS seems a very real possibility.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#283775) #
I must have read things wrong, that makes much more sense.

Original Ryan - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#283776) #
How is the 8-man bullpen unnecessary when McGowan is probably limited to 5 innings?

Because of the aforementioned off-days and proximity of the Bisons. With four off-days in April, it's hard to see the team having a tired bullpen even with seven relievers. There would likely need to be a flameout or two from the other starters or a long extra inning game for McGowan's pitch limit to be an issue.

In the event the team did find itself with a tired bullpen, normally it would be able to bring up a fresh arm or two very easily. The Bisons spend the whole month of April in the Northeast, so calling up someone from AAA on short notice shouldn't be a problem. A tired bullpen is something you can usually worry about when you actually have one.

Unfortunately the value of having the AAA affiliate close by has been reduced by the team's fear of losing one of its pitchers on waivers. The team simply doesn't have much roster flexibility at the moment due to all the guys who are out of options. Ideally Anthopoulos would have 1) actually done something about the team's surplus relievers during the offseason, and/or 2) thought twice about trading for relievers who were out of options. Anthopoulos basically painted himself into a corner.

Ultimately I think it's the option situation that has led to the decision to carry eight relievers, not McGowan's pitch limit. As I'm sure you're well aware, this isn't the first time a team has had a starting pitcher who couldn't go deep into ballgames. Whether it's a starter coming off the disabled list, a reliever coming out of the bullpen to make a start, or a rookie who might implode in his major league debut, most teams will face the real possibility of relying on the bullpen for 5+ innings at some point during the season. Yet those teams manage just fine despite carrying only seven relievers. The Blue Jays would as well.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#283777) #
The 2B situation is definitely dissappointing. Its so bad that i'm HOPING that goins will be able to maintain a .600ops, but thinking a .500ops is more likely. Maybe lower.

Thing is, Izturis has a career .700ops and i'm not sure his defensive struggles last year mean the end of him being able field competently.

I also think kawasaki is a much safer bet to post a .600ops, and more importantly a healthier OBP than goins, with similar defensive ability.

Goins did nothing to win a job this spring and i doubt he's our best internal option.

Though i guess the dream scenario is what happened with iglesias in boston last year. A crap minor league hitter somehow got scorching hot for a couple of months, and the sox managed to dish him off for needed rotation help in peavy. Would be nice to get lucky like that.

John Northey - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#283778) #
No question the pen is as large as it is due to a lack of ability to send guys down.
Would be here no matter what...
Casey Janssen, Sergio Santos, Brett Cecil, Steve Delabar, Aaron Loup

Probably would be here regardless...
Esmil Rogers

Lack of options forcing the Jays hand...
Jeremy Jeffress, Todd Redmond

I'm certain that Redmond is the #8 man right now as Rogers covers the long man slot and Redmond really should be starting in AAA (with 8 guys how many innings could you need out of any one guy at one time...thus no real need for 2 long men).  Of course, AAA is going to have an extremely full rotation too with Romero, McGuire, Nolin, Jenkins, Drabek (not to mention guys they acquired like Rob Rasmussen in the winter). Sanchez will probably be up to AAA at some point, along with others I'm sure.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#283779) #
Speaking of boston last year, they're also a model of how not panicking over one disaster year for the SP can easily be the right strategy.

Boston had this rotation in 2012 (jays '13 to compare):

Lester: 205.1ip, 4.82era --- (dickey 224.2ip, 4.21era)
Buchholz: 189.1ip, 4.56era - (buehrle 203.2ip, 4.15era)
Lackey: -- ('11: 160, 6.41) - (morrow 54.1ip, 5.63era)
Doubront: 161.0ip, 4.86era - (hutch -- ('12 64.1, 4.60)
Beckett: 127.1ip, 5.23era -- (johnson 81.1ip, 6.20era)
Cook: 94.0ip, 5.65era ------ (happ 92.2, 4.56)
Morales: 45.2ip, 4.14era --- (redmond 69.1, 4.41)
Bard: 54.1ip, 5.30era ------ (rogers 106.2, 4.89)
DiceK: 45.2ip, 8.28era ----- (ortiz 16.1, 5.51 / wang 27.0, 7.67 / romero 4.1, 12.46 / laffey 2.2, 6.75)
Stewart: 5.2ip, 20.25era --- (jenkins 15.0, 3.60 / nolin 1.1 40.50)

With Beckett traded at the deadline.

What did they do in the offseason? They signed one ofnthose mediocre starters toman overpaid contract to replace beckett. Dempster for $15m x 3yrs.

What happened? Lester bounced back to normal, buchholz bounced back but was more injured, lackey came back super from TJ and previous awful performance, after a sub par rookiemyear unheralded doubront came up with a very good soph season.....and FA Dempster...sucked. Not even replacement level and they traded for an upgrade midseason in peavy. And now through some luck he seems to have decided to retire abd forgo $30m for some reason.

Last year:

Lester 213.1ip, 3.75era ---- (buehrle?)
Lackey 189.1ip, 3.52era ---- (dickey?)
Buchholz 109.1ip, 1.74era -- (morrow/mcG?)
Doubront 162.1ip, 4.32era -- (hutch?)
Dempster 171.1ip, 4.57era -- (morrow/mcG?)
Aceves 30.1ip, 4.45era ---- (redmond?)
Workman 18.1ip, 2.45era --- (stroman?)
Webster 29.1ip, 8.59era --- (nolin?)
Morales 5.0ip, 3.60era ---- (rogers?)
Wright 1.0ip, 27.00era ---- (happ?)

And then of course they picked up peavy for a song at the deadline, which is a possibility for us as well. Peavy was pretty solid: 64.2ip, 4.04era.

The red sox rotation looked like an absolute disaster last year, and it turned out dominant as most ofmthe health and bounceback questions were answered positively. The overpriced mediocrity they signed to address this apparently gaping roster hole turned out to be an anchor almost immediately.

You don't have to squint too hard to see the possibility of a similar jays bounceback - particularly if you believe JPA was a pitcher killer.

Either way, in the 3/4/5 slots last year the jays averaged less than 5ip per start with an era almost at 5.50.

That's not going to happen again. The rotation will be much, much improved this year.
Chuck - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#283780) #
A crap minor league hitter somehow got scorching hot for a couple of months, and the sox managed to dish him off for needed rotation help in peavy.

I don't think the Iglesias and Goins situations are that similar, though. Iglesias plays the more highly valued position. He has a reputation as a plus-defender whereas I doubt that Goins has any reputation at all. And Iglesias is a couple of years younger. I think Goins could hit .400 in April without establishing any trade value.

grjas - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#283781) #
Manny Lee averaged 100+ innings from 1988-1992 on a perennial contender. His career OPS was .629 and batting average was .255. Similar numbers to goins with the Jays last year. The lineup, if healthy, is deep enough to carry him. Drew would be better of course and cover for Reyes if needed but am skeptical he'd come to the jays for reasonable years and dollars at second base.

With the skill in this rotation, playoff contention is at least conceivable. Not sure I felt that way at the beginning of SP with Happ and Redmond in the mix. But jeez. What happened to Dickey today..
uglyone - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#283782) #
John - the jays had no problem waivimg jeffrss last year. Doubt its a huge factor this year.

On a related note, i like redmond better than either rogers or jeffress. Imo he's the perfect long man - won't walkmhimsekf into trouble, plent of Ks, can go multiple innings no prob, and can even go through the lineup a 2nd time if necessary.

I'm also pretty sure Stilson is better than either of those two, too.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#283783) #
Agreed, chuck, he won't earn any trade value. Though as to the defensive comment, goins is actually an SS, and should probably play there if he's in the lineup, even though that won't happen.

But hey, i'll take the "crap minor leaguer gets scorching hot for two months" part even without the trade value.
Original Ryan - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#283784) #
It's not like a 4-man bench would add a whole lot to the team, when the options available would be Kratz, Tuisasosopo, Kawasaki, or maybe Pillar. They haven't exiled some brilliant pinch hitter to AAA for the sake of one more reliever.

It would be nice to have the flexibility, particularly with Goins in the lineup. I really don't want to see Goins at the plate late in the game with a runner or two aboard, regardless of whether there is a lefty or righty on the mound. As things stand now, the options are 1) let Goins hit for himself, 2) use Izturis as a pinch hitter, or 3) use Sierra as a pinch hitter and Izturis in the field, but wind up with only Thole/Navarro left on the bench and potentially force Lind to face a lefty specialist.

I'm not crazy about Tuiasosopo, but I would have picked him as the 25th guy instead of Jeffress. I simply don't see the need for an 8-man bullpen to start the season.

Chuck - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#283785) #
Though as to the defensive comment, goins is actually an SS, and should probably play there if he's in the lineup, even though that won't happen.

Thanks. I keep forgetting that he is a shortstop who moved off position.

Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#283786) #
Whenever I saw Goins at short, he looked nothing like a Gold Glover.
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#283787) #
It's a long shot, but I wonder whether the Jays are considering making a run at Drew shortly after the season starts.
Charlie - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#283788) #
uglyone, I get all prepared to count out the Jays rotation in advance of the season, to save myself the heartbreak, and then you go and kindle the flames of hope again.
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#283789) #
One positive for the Jays is that if the team stays relatively healthy (big if), they should be in a position to really improve the club with a move or two during the season. For example, at some point a team may prove willing to move a quality second baseman or starting pitcher. This could coincide with the Jays having some attractive trade chips on the farm (they have a number of high-potential players whose stock could really rise with good first halves in 2014).

It isn't like some post-1993 stretches when the team was sort of average across the board, with no obvious ways to push the team into contention with a savvy move or two.

Everything rides on health, though.
electric carrot - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#283790) #
I think if by some miracle this lineup and rotation stays mostly healthy this team is a contender.  The hitting should be fantastic -- near the top of the league.  I think with those five going in the rotation we would be top half of the league there too.  However, this does strike me as a team who is vulnerable to injuries given histories and also age of the team.
92-93 - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#283791) #
In light of this bullpen conversation, some of you may find Buck Showalter's thoughts on the matter interesting. It's a good interview with Francesa about bullpen construction and how to build a pitching staff.

"You can't have an unoptionable bullpen. U got to have pieces down there that u can move in the AL back and forth from AAA otherwise you are going to have some pitchers who are going to be injured because you will have to overuse them."

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/?podcast_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.podtrac.com%2Fpts%2Fredirect.mp3%2Fnyc.podcast.play.it%2Fmedia%2Fd0%2Fd0%2Fd1%2Fd4%2FdX%2FdO%2Fd5%2F14XO5_3.MP3%3Fauthtok%3D5562360773138742120_xlOabJv74uwpUWB3gZJiwUiuY&podcast_name=Mike+Francesa+with+Buck+Showalter&podcast_artist=Mike+Francesa&station_id=62&tag=pages&dcid=CBS.NY

Many of us have been saying something similar since the 8 man bullpen nonsense started. If you build the bullpen with the right 7 arms, it should be way more than enough to protect any pitching staff, whether or not the 5th starter can be counted on for 6 innings.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#283792) #
The hitting should be fantastic -- near the top of the league

Last year, the club scored 4.40 runs/game in a hitter's park.  League average was 4.33 runs/game.  Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays to score 4.53 runs/game this year, right there with Texas and Boston at the top of the league.  For the Blue Jays to win,  they will have to lead the league in scoring andt they can do it if the lineup is mostly healthy., I think.  The spring performances of Cabrera and Lawrie make the fangraphs projections for them (.281/.331/.432 and .267/.328/.440) seem reasonable, and in Lawrie's case, perhaps conservative.  These were probably the two biggest offensive question marks.
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 26 2014 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#283793) #
I've liked Showalter for a while now, and that interview adds to my respect for him. A thinking person's manager. At one point he said that Toronto is "much improved" this year but he saved most of his praise for the Red Sox and Rays.

He was very thoughtful about bullpen construction and use (and abuse). I imagine he probably wasn't that impressed with the way the Jays ran Cecil and Delabar into the ground in 2013 (all for the sake of being a bit less bad).
vw_fan17 - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#283794) #
Looks like Wilson Betemit (and Jayson Nix) are not breaking camp with the Rays. Should the Jays take a chance on WB, and DFA Izturis or demote Goins or something?
John Northey - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#283795) #
Betemit is tempting... has historically pounded RHP (279/347/472) but sucks vs LHP (636 OPS) so he doesn't really fit in the Sierra role.  As to replacing Izturis he hasn't played 2B since 2011, and last played more than 3 games there in 2006.  He covers 1B/3B now and can be used in an emergency at 2B/SS but it wouldn't be a good idea, and can play the OF if needed as well.  If he pounded LHP then he'd be a LOT more tempting, but as is he just doesn't fit.  Nix I'd stay far, far away from.
greenfrog - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#283796) #
Nix Nix, in other words?
SK in NJ - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#283798) #
Does anyone know why exactly Alex is so fixated with Jeremy Jeffress? He has a great fastball, but what else? Carrying an 8-man pen just to keep Jeffress seems insane to me.

The Jays definitely do not need an 8-man bullpen, even with McGowan in the rotation. They could go the pairing up route and pair McGowan with either Redmond or Rogers, and still have 6 other relievers to finish the game every 5th day. Maybe they are bracing themselves in case Morrow gets hurt again or Hutchison isn't completely back yet, or are simply paranoid after all those 1-2 inning performances from starters last season, but the lack of bench is eventually going to come back to bite them.

Count me in as another person scared of what Ryan Goins is going to do at the plate. He has .550 OPS written all over him. They should have platooned Kawasaki with Izturis at 2B. That was probably their best internal option. Or just sign Stephen Drew already.
greenfrog - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#283799) #
Re the bullpen: the Jays might feel that their chances of demoting a reliever without his being claimed will be better once the season begins. Right now rosters are being finalized and some team might claim a Redmond/Rogers/Jeffress if he were sent down.

While I have concerns about McGowan's health, I'm pretty stoked that he's made it this far. I wonder how many innings he'll end up throwing this season. With so much at stake for AA, Gibbons and the Jays, I imagine they'll run him out there until his injury issues start to flare up.
John Northey - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#283800) #
Guess the question is ... who is likely to help the Jays the most in the short term and long term?  A 4th bench option when the manager doesn't use his bench or an 8th reliever when he loves to use his pen.

Also, a great fastball is not an 'only', it is a very big thing. A guy with a blazing fastball who can keep it in the strikezone will make millions in MLB.  After 2012 Jeffress had a 7.0 BB/9 rate in the majors over 38 2/3 IP.  In the minors over 7 seasons his BB/9 rate was over 5 4 times (ie: more often than not).  Last year in AAA his walk rate dropped to 3.6 and in the majors with the Jays it was 4.4.  In all but 2011 his HR/9 was great (below 1 all but that year) and he gave up just one last year.  This is a guy who, if he does have his control issues under control, could be a very good to excellent closer or setup man.  That is a big if, but last year was the first time he showed it in the majors at all while in the minors he only was better in 2010 (the year he was first called up but it was A / A+ / AA ball he did it in).  He was in the BA top 100 once, BP top 100 4 times (last in pre-2011).  Yeah, the Jays got him for a song when KC gave up on getting his control issues under control (purchased for cash).  If he works out though he is super-cheap as he is pre-arb this year and next, then not a free agent until the 2018/9 winter. 

To me Jeffress is a good risk.  Very high reward potential, and the cost is a short bench or letting go of Richmond (who I do like, but see less potential in).  Ideally the Jays make a deal that involves a couple of relievers to get a more solid 2B or RH DH/OF option.  Then the bench issue would be taken care of due to the pen having more space. 

Mike Green - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#283801) #
Jeffress undoubtedly has the theoretical ability to be a fine high leverage reliever.  He had three positive tests for "drugs of abuse" in 2007-2009.  He has always struggled for his control.

As to the suggestion that his control improved last year in the minor leagues and in the major leagues (42 innings), he has since thrown 15.1 innings total in the Dominican Winter League and in 2014 spring training and walked 15 batters. Rumours of developing control seem to me to be premature.

Jeffress is effectively like a Rule 5 stash on the roster.  It's not a good idea for a team that does need bench support now.

greenfrog - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#283802) #
I could see that happening. If a couple of the Jays' higher-end relievers get off to hot starts, some team with a second baseman or RH bat might become interested in making a trade. But most significant deals go down closer to the July 31 deadline, so the Jays might have to wait a while to find the parts they need.
Ryan Day - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#283803) #
One reason for optimism is that Jeffress was diagnosed with epilepsy last season, a condition that was affecting him for years and contributed to his drug use.

As you say, there hasn't been a miraculous improvement in his control. But he may not be an unsolveable puzzle, either.
China fan - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#283804) #
Is there any chance that we could refrain from words like "nonsense" and "insane" when discussing Jays strategy? This has always been a site where debate is encouraged. Words like "nonsense" and "insane" are shutdown words: attempts to stifle debate, to imply that some issues are beyond discussion, to imply that some people's opinions are so obviously correct that nobody should debate them. There are 2 sides to every issue, and this site traditionally encourages debate on both sides, rather than insulting the other side.
Mike Green - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#283805) #
As you say, there hasn't been a miraculous improvement in his control. But he may not be an unsolveable puzzle, either.

I agree.  I would have no problem at all with the decision to keep Jeffress on the roster if the club was at a different stage (where it was attempting to build towards a winning team in a few years).  After the trades of this last off-season, this club should be using its major league roster spots for players who can actually help the team win in 2014. 
Chuck - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#283806) #
I wonder if discussion forums for other teams also focus so heavily on decisions related to roster spot #25. I understand the temptation since it is an area of decision-making where fans can formulate strong opinions and therefor e find reasons to agree or disagree with management. But the ramifications of the decision will probably amount to very little in the long run. A crappy reliever. A crappy bench player. Meh.

The distraction over player #25 does obfuscate bigger picture issues. The team is heading into the season with the #30 ranked second baseman, a player whom FanGraphs is projecting to be exactly replacement level. Based on who you believe, a Nick Franklin might give you somewhere between 1 and 3 WAR. That could have been a huge upgrade. (Maybe AA did pursue Franklin. Maybe Seattle asked too much. We'll never know.)

An upgrade at 2B would have been far more impactful to the team than getting "right" the decision on who should be player #25.

uglyone - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#283807) #
I've got less and less time for arms like jeffress (and rogers and happ for that matter).

Pitching IS control and command. That's what it's all about.

Pitchers with long track records of wildness don't ever find control. They will give you random streaks of dominance but nothing sustained.

And what bugs me is that the bullpen is the best and most dependable part of the team. It's the last place the jays need an extra body.

And since they're clearly deciding that they can completely forgo one offensive position game in game out, and two positions in every dickey start, having a pure PH on the bench would seem to be a necessity.
China fan - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#283808) #
Not sure if it's accurate to describe Jeffress as a "Rule 5" type of situation, or some kind of "future" guy who represents nothing more than potential and will have to be hidden at the bottom of the bullpen. From what I understand, Jeffress did impress the Jays this spring, a lot more than last spring. For example, last Friday against the Rays, he retired 7 of 8 hitters quite effectively, allowing nothing more than a walk in 2.1 scoreless and hitless innings. If he can do that again, he's not just an "insane" choice for the roster.
Chuck - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#283809) #
Pitchers with long track records of wildness don't ever find control.

But the problem is guys like Randy Johnson who prove that sometimes -- albeit extremely rarely -- those guys do find control. Johnson started life as a wild man and improbably morphed into a genuine control pitcher, without sacrificing his Ks.

I do believe that many organizations spend too much time and effort trying to determine if their wild men can make the most unlikely of transmogrifications. Having a "live arm" means you get many chances to fail.

What is particularly rich in this case is that the team's best reliever is the guy who throws the softest, but who excels because of his command. Why is he not seen as the organizational poster boy?

John Northey - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#283810) #
Chuck - dead on with the big issues.  To me the big issues that should've been addressed better...
1) Second Base - Goins is all defense, zero offense. Good as a 25th man, not good as a starter. Now, maybe he'll pull an Ozzie Smith and grow into a hitter but somehow I doubt it. I hope AA was talking a lot with Seattle but just hit road blocks for whatever reason (ie: their asking for Sanchez for Franklin or something).  Izturis as the backup after his horrid year is scary.

2) Rotation - would've been #1 but McGowan and Hutchison might be better than any other option (other than Tanaka) this past winter in the end. Plus combined they'll make less than any other 1/2 decent option.  The big worry is injuries, but Sanchez doing well in spring gives hope that a solid backup could be right around the corner.

3) Outfield/DH - a solid RH hitting OF/DH would've been nice. Sierra might work out but I wouldn't bet the house on it (or even $20).  Morales might come down in price as the season progresses, but that still leaves the OF empty although if he was acquired then Gose could be the #4 with defense/speed even with no offense.

For next winter the outfield becomes a nightmare potentially as Cabrera and Rasmus are free agents and Gose/Pillar/Sierra give little hope right now. But one can hope.

As to the statement from uglyone about wildness never getting under control I give you Roy Halladay (4.8 BB/9 through age 23 in 231 IP, then 1.7 BB/9 after that), Randy Johnson (5.7 BB/9 up through age 28, 2.7 BB/9 after that), Nolan Ryan (only once below 5 BB/9 by the age of 31, then 10 of the next 15 years was under 4),  Yeah, those are 3 HOF'ers and hardly the rule but it shows extreme wildness can be brought under control and if it is then watch out.
Mike Green - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#283811) #
Chuck had it exactly right.  Occasionally a wild pitcher will find control and become very valuable- Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax are the poster boys. 

Roy Halladay is not a good example.  He was a pitcher who had good control at age 19 and then went through a crisis of confidence when everything fell to pieces- walk rate, K rate, HR rate.

Mike Green - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#283812) #
Incidentally, the focus on the #25 roster spot makes sense for two reasons.  Firstly, it is pretty transparent.  We know that the GM has a choice between Jeffress and Tuisasosopo (say) and Kawasaki (say) and Kratz (say).  On the other hand, the acquisition of a starting second basemen involves budget limitations (for someone like Infante) and trade demands (for someone like Franklin) which are unknown to observers. Secondly, it is a marker for confidence in the GM.  If the GM cannot get the decisions right on the issues where we can see what is going on, we are less likely to believe that the right offers are made in the cases where we cannot.
SK in NJ - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#283813) #
Jeffress is a reliever. Even if he figures it all out, what's his upside? Unless it's Craig Kimbrel upside, then I'm not convinced it is worth going with a depleted bench, especially when the left side of the infield has trouble staying healthy and Maicer is the only back-up for that. If this was 2010, 2011, or 2012 when the team had no intention of competing, then I'd be OK with it, but I'm hoping the team's objective is to make the playoffs in 2014. Jeffress does not help that.
John Northey - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#283814) #
Well.... another reason is free agency.  Janssen is a free agent after this year, and Santos starts his option years after this one ($6 mil vs $750k buyout).  If Santos isn't lights out I doubt the Jays pick up that $5.25 mil spread.  Lose those 2 and the deep pen gets a bit weaker, and if a reliever or two is used in a trade it would get weaker still. 

Of course, the flip side is Stilson is coming and Drabek might have a future in the pen plus Wagner is in AAA waiting.  Not to mention others who won't get much of a shot at starting who might be good (Jenkins for example). 

I suspect the key thoughts are...
  • Jeffress could have turned a corner and might be a lights out guy and you might as well do one last check vs ML competition to see
  • Gibbons isn't much of one for pinch hitting/running/defensive replacements but loves to use his pen
  • Janssen, Santos, Cecil, Delabar all need a certain degree of kid glove treatment due to past injuries thus fewer guys to abuse when needed (ie: extra inning game, two weak starts in a row, etc.)
  • With a day off each week the regulars should be able to play everyday without issue in April, even Reyes and Cabrera who both have injury recovery and Lawrie who is a walking time bomb it seems sometimes
  • Lack of options for pen guys makes it tougher to do a Buffalo/Toronto shuttle plus the Jays want to keep good relations with Buffalo and making them short in the pen is not a good way to keep things happy.
  • Morrow, McGowan, and Hutchison all are recovering from injuries so you want to keep them on very short leashes

Each has a different degree of weight, but all are worth thinking about.  Yeah, it'd be better if the pen was full of Goose Gossage types who can do 120 innings without their arms falling off but that isn't the case. I personally would prefer a shorter pen (grew up in the 5 man bullpen days) but would probably cut Redmond instead depending on what the scouts and coaches say about each players potential and holes in their games.

Mike Green - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#283815) #
For what it's worth, Jeffress' upside is that of a dominating starting pitcher.  He had tremendous K rates in the minors as a starter, and apparently his off-speed stuff has some potential...Earlier on in his career, the comparisons were made with Dwight Gooden.  In this case, it would be a very late developing Dwight Gooden.

The realistic chance of him reaching that upside- very, very low. 

China fan - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#283816) #
"....I'm hoping the team's objective is to make the playoffs in 2014. Jeffress does not help that...."

That's a very sweeping statement. You're absolutely sure that he doesn't help the team at all in 2014? If you've got a functioning crystal ball to know what's going to happen for the entirety of the next six months, you should be making money in Las Vegas, not wasting time with baseball fan sites....
China fan - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#283817) #
John, your six points about the Jeffress strategy are all good ones. One further point about the Buffalo/Toronto shuttle: it would only work if relievers are fungible, and if Stilson or Jenkins are just the same as Redmond and Jeffress and Rogers. I'm not necessarily convinced that that's the case. One thing is clear: the Jays had one of the best bullpens in the league last year. I think Gibbons and his bullpen choices had a lot to do with that performance, and I'm willing to trust him in 2014 to assemble the best possible bullpen again. If the only cost is a bench hitter who is unlikely to be utilized very often anyway, I don't see that as a huge problem. Once the season is a few weeks old and the rotation has settled and stretched out and the bullpen is clearer, then it makes sense to cut it down to a 7-man pen and an expanded bench.
Rich - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#283818) #
If the only cost is a bench hitter who is unlikely to be utilized very often anyway, I don't see that as a huge problem.

Then again, Gibbons may well make more use of a bench hitter if his Boss were to actually supply him with a half-decent one.

Another bat on the bench serves as more than just a pinch hitter; the lineup has FOUR (count 'em) regulars with scary injury histories so the chances that a bench player is going to be needed for an extended run in the lineup is extremely high.  And in that case, having someone who can play for a couple of weeks or longer has a vastly greater utility than an 8th reliever with a very limited track record of success.
John Northey - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#283819) #
If someone goes down then who comes up, or who do you use off the bench?
CA: Kratz obviously with Jimenez an option if he is doing really well
1B: probably some shuffling with Lind at 1B and whoever at DH
2B: Izturis (crap) or Kawasaki
3B: Izturis (no!) or Kawasaki or ???
SS: Kawasaki or Goins at SS Izturis at 2B
LF/CF/RF: Pillar/Gose/Sierra if all 3 were down (at which point the season is a write off)
DH: whoever is hitting best in AAA

Tuiasosopo (if he isn't elsewhere soon) would be a viable option at 3B/2B/1B/OF/etc. as he has played almost everywhere but catcher.

Generally if someone goes down I prefer to see the AAA option come up instead of a bench guy as ideally your bench is full of guys who have some hole in their game and are happy to be in the majors and have a skill that is useful for certain situations (defense, speed, can hit certain types of pitchers but not others). 

I see Kawasaki as the #1 choice for a callup/spot in lineup should someone go down in the infield with Gose likely if it is an outfielder (platoon with Sierra then the 'joy' of watching Lind make outs vs LHP).

uglyone - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#283820) #
Hutch pulled at around ~90 pitches.

Line: 5.1ip, 1h, 0xbh, 0r, 3bb, 3k

Spring Line: 15.0ip, 11.4k/9, 2.4bb/9, 0.80whip, 1.80era

Not bad.
Ryan Day - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#283821) #
3B: Izturis (no!) or Kawasaki or ???

Probably not Kawasaki - I don't think he has the arm for the position. You might see Andy Burns come up if he's having a good year, or the team might move Encarnacion or Bautista back short-term.
uglyone - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#283822) #
And as much as i want to complain about thole over kratz, i can understand fully that management's dominant overriding concern this year is getting the moat out of their starting pitchers. Whether thole catching dickey makes a big difference there i'm not sure, but i understand the thought process.

And in a sideways way, the jays' hot bats this spring may have made this an easier decision for them. Huge question marks cabrera and lawrie and lind look fantastic so far, while joey and ee look healthy and mashtastic.
Thomas - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#283824) #

Following on from Rich's point, the short bench becomes even more problematic when one of the starting position players is afflicted with a nagging injury that the club does not diagnose as serious enough to warrant a trip to the DL (an evaluation on which they've been mistaken before), but which keeps him out of the lineup for several days, which effectively turns the bench into one player and a backup catcher.

Gerry - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#283825) #
Last year Navarro had an OPS of 1123 vs lefties and 764 vs righties. You want Navarro to face lefties and preferably your backup faces righties. So will Thole or Kratz fare better against righties? Thole might have won that too as well as his defense.
Ryan Day - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#283827) #
the short bench becomes even more problematic when one of the starting position players is afflicted with a nagging injury that the club does not diagnose as serious enough to warrant a trip to the DL

But if/when that happens, you could always send down a reliever & bring up another bench player.
Thomas - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#283828) #

I haven't seen evidence that suggests that the front office tends to do that so far during AA's tenure.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#283830) #
Has anyone thought about how the "Dickey Effect" is going to help Drew Hutchison. In the month of April, that pairing faces Tampa Bay once, NYY once, Baltimore twice and KC once. Is that 8-10 wins?
greenfrog - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#283834) #
Should we do a wins prediction for the Jays and/or MLB? Also, how did last off-season's W-L predictions work out?
Gerry - Thursday, March 27 2014 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#283835) #
I am working on both those threads. They might be up tomorrow.
Jonny German - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 04:45 AM EDT (#283838) #
If we can't have Stephen Drew or Nick Franklin, how about Josh Rutledge? The Rockies have sent him to AAA.
JB21 - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#283840) #
Does the FG's writeup of the Jays' starting pitching not echo everything you feel about the 2014 team as a whole?

------------------------

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-positional-power-rankings-starting-pitchers-16-30/

So, yeah, maybe the Blue Jays rotation will be average. Or maybe it will be amazing. Or maybe it will be terrible. I have no idea. This feels like an optimistic forecast, but then again, these guys all have talent and some track record of success. It wouldn’t be that weird if Dickey’s knuckler went back to being incredible, Buehrle outperformed his FIP, and a couple of top prospects finally were healthy enough to show why they were top prospects. It also just wouldn’t be that weird if soft-tossing senior citizens got lit up and broken pitchers stayed broken. This rotation is basically just one big bag of who the hell knows.
Mike Green - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#283843) #
Apparently a movie is going to be made about R.A.Dickey.  I would suggest that a younger Jeff Bridges would have been good for the lead role.  I'd love to see Javier Bardem as Henry Blanco; the man can do about anything and this would test his range...
SK in NJ - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#283845) #
That's a very sweeping statement. You're absolutely sure that he doesn't help the team at all in 2014? If you've got a functioning crystal ball to know what's going to happen for the entirety of the next six months, you should be making money in Las Vegas, not wasting time with baseball fan sites....

Janssen and Delabar were each worth one win in 2013, and those two had great seasons for relievers. Are you seriously asking a question that implies that Jeffress may help the team make the playoffs as the 8th reliever in a crowded bullpen?

I realize you don't like people making "negative" statements, or statements of "fact" beforehand, but you're going a bit overboard. Saying that Jeffress is not an important piece to a playoff run is common sense, not a crystal ball prediction. That doesn't mean he won't have a good season or figure things out. He might. But so what?

If he was a starter, then things would be different, but he's not.
John Northey - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#283846) #
And in the 'are they insane' department....Tigers To Extend Miguel Cabrera to an 8 year deal that could reach a total value of $352 million over the next 12 years.  He had 2 years left on his current deal at $22 mil per year.  Then, at age 33, his new deal kicks in at $31 mil a year for 8 years with 2 more option years that vest (they haven't listed what makes them vest yet) and add another $30 mil per year.  So basically an extra $248 mil guaranteed with $60 mil vesting and $44 mil on his current deal.  Wow.

Deals like this one can cripple a teams finances for a very long time. If Cabrera stays a productive powerful hitter, then they are OK. But if he drops like almost all players do post 32 then it could make Pujols' deal look good.  Remember, Pujols at the same age (30) was coming of his 10th straight 150+ OPS+ season, his 3rd straight 170+ season.  Cabrera is 4 straight in the 160-190 range.  Pujols last year at age 33 had a 116 OPS+ and played under 140 games for the first time.  That is the age Cabrera's new deal kicks in.

I look at Tampa and see a team that locks in guys as soon as they reach the majors if they are likely to be stars. I look elsewhere and I see deals that scream 'Vernon Wells'. Right now AA has shown restraint on the Wells type deals while trying to do the 'lock them in young' deals without a lot of luck (Romero, Lind, Morrow) and done speculation ones with a bit of good news (Happ, Thole, Janssen, McGowan, Bautista, Encarnacion) but never for 7+ years.  I think I prefer that.  Try to emulate Tampa if you must impersonate someone, as deals like Detroit has been doing (first Fielder and now Cabrera) carry big risk and the reward is rarely enough to justify it.
Mike Green - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#283849) #
Has there every been a guy as big as Cabrera who was as good a hitter?  Ruth was roughly the same proportions but 2" shorter (and a better hitter).  Frank Robinson was about the same as a hitter and was solid, but bore no resemblance at all to Cabrera.  If you take the most charitable view of his comps, he might be able to continue to 37 or 38 at roughly his career norms.  In that case, the Tigers conceivably could get close to value for the deal, but otherwise it is a long-term money pit.

Anthopoulos' caution with regard to long-term commitments of money has probably been a two-edged sword.  It has helped the club avoid situations which cripple them for 5-10 years, but hasn't helped them building a winner.  I have been waiting for the Brett Lawrie deal...We shall see if it comes and how much it costs them when it does.


greenfrog - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#283851) #
In that case, the Tigers conceivably could get close to value for the deal

The reason I disagree is that Cabrera was already under control for the next two years (i.e., through his age-32 season). The new contract starts in 2016, when Cabrera will be 33. Giving him an additional 8/248 plus vesting options (two options at $30M apiece) for his decline years seems crazy. Cabrera does not play a premium position, and he'll likely be very poor on defense for the life of the extension (he'll probably be a DH before too long). The Tigers aren't getting any defense or baserunning value from him.

As good as Cabrera is, if the team's choices were losing him to free agency after 2015 or keeping him on board with this contract, I would have let him walk. Unless the team plans on having a massive payroll for the next decade.

Mike Trout? Different story.
greenfrog - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#283853) #
I have been waiting for the Brett Lawrie deal

After the Vernon Wells, Ricky Romero, and J.A. Happ contracts, I wouldn't be surprised if AA goes year-to-year with Lawrie, unless he can negotiate a very team-friendly deal to buy out a year or two of free agency, the way he did with Yunel, Morrow, Janssen and EE. It wasn't that long ago that AA said that his philosophy had shifted: he used to want to lock players up early, but he's now more willing to wait and see how things play out.
Ryan Day - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#283861) #
My initial thought was that Lawrie's injuries make him a poor fit for a long-term contract; with so much of his value tied up in his defence, I'd be concerned about him hurting his shoulder or ankle, or some other injury that compromised his defensive play.

On the other hand, maybe Lawrie is aware of this possibility, too. Maybe that makes the negotiations smoother.
John Northey - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#283863) #
Yeah, if I was running the Angels I'd be trying to get Trout's name on a long term deal a year ago, but now might be too late as he has seen the Cabrera and Kershaw contracts and no way he accepts less than $30+ per free agent year and $20+ for each arbitration year.
Mike Green - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#283864) #
Trout is worth closer to $50m than $30m in free agency. 
John Northey - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#283865) #
Don't see anyone going to $50 mil at this point but who knows.  Trout is a free agent after the 2017 season, so any free agent contract starts at age 26 thus a 10 year deal then covers 26-35, or basically prime plus a few but not deep into decline.  A $300 mil deal covering those years is the starting point right now, but is there a team willing to do an A-Rod (first deal)?  He'd be the first guy since A-Rod to be worth that type of risk due to the combination of age and skill.  If the Angels can pull off a 10 year deal now they'd get ages 22-32 on it.
Mike Green - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#283866) #
Trout is a significantly more valuable property at this stage of his career than Rodriguez was, and there has been salary inflation since then.  If a club is going to spend $24 million/year for a 30 year old ballplayer who reaches 8 WAR at his peak (Cano), what is reasonable for a 25-26 year old who has already reached 9-10 WAR at age 22?



Richard S.S. - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#283867) #
McGowan has, since his draft, earned $4.8235 MM before this season. If he has benefitted from the "weighted ball" thingee that Delabar introduced, he could be ... ? I don't know what to say.
grjas - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#283874) #
What's uglier tonight. Lind's beard or Zaun's pink suit...and purple tie.
Chuck - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#283879) #
Nostalgia time for this old Montreal boy tonight. A game at the Big O and ESPN Classic airing the 1975 Habs-Red Army new year's eve game.
James W - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#283881) #
The Angels have reportedly locked up Trout for 6 years (2015-2020) and $144,500,000.
Mike Green - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#283882) #
The always wonderful John Allemang writes on the wonders of a new baseball season. The paper copy of the article has the headline "Spring Hopes Eternal", with a picture of a full stadium.  At a quick glance, I thought it might be last night's game at the big O.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#283886) #
Baseball TradeRumors App - AL East Notes: Anthopoulos... - Mark Polishuk Mar 28 at 1400 CST

Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said the Team is open to possibly extending the contracts of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes, the GM tells The Toronto Star's Richard Griffin ... (sorry no link) ... (there's more).
jerjapan - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#283888) #
Lovely moment for Ricardo Nanita last night with the game winner, and props to Jerry Howarth for acknowledging what could easily be Nanita's biggest moment in pro ball. 
JB21 - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#283889) #
Does winning the World Baseball Classic count as Pro Ball?
John Northey - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#283890) #
The Griffin article is interesting. It seems Santana did agree to a deal but it wasn't signed on the dotted line, just verbal until he flew up here for his physical. Then Atlanta came calling and suddenly the agreed upon deal was irrelevant and he signed there. Boy it would be great if McGowan and Hutchison (one of whom would not be in the rotation if Santana signed) both came out and had a better years than Santana. I guess this is a lot like the Gillick deal from 1993 where he had a verbal agreement to trade Karsay for Rickey Henderson then got a phone call from Seattle telling him they'd do the Randy Johnson for Karsay deal but Gillick was honourable and kept the Rickey deal instead.  One wonders how different Jays and Mariners history would be if Gillick was like Santana (that story has been told a few times over the years by Gillick).
jerjapan - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#283891) #
Does winning the World Baseball Classic count as Pro Ball?

Uhh, no, that's why I included the word 'pro'. 
greenfrog - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#283893) #
I think the Trout deal is great for the Angels. First, they've locked up arguably the best player in baseball (quite possibly a historically great player) for his peak years. Second, it looks as though they'll be getting excellent value for their money, despite the size/length of the contract involved. Third, should they so choose, they'll have an opportunity before he becomes a FA (perhaps after 2018 or 2019) to extend him into his mid- to late-30s. Or they can let him walk and let some other team dole out the really massive contract in Trout's career.
Mike Green - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#283894) #
Yes, it is a great deal for the Angels.  The billionaires do have the advantage when bargaining with pre-arb players. 
Mike Green - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#283895) #
That was fun.  When I watch Aaron Sanchez pitch, it reminds of old times and the bonus babies.  If you look at his face, you'd swear he was 17 even if he has started to grow into his man-strength!
uglyone - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#283896) #
Really loved how gibby ran this camp.

No messing around. He gave all the regulars and borderline guys all the playing time, and gave nothing to anyone else.

Unlike last spring’s lazy day on day off strategy.

And then he does smart things at the end here like giving the two top kids stroman and sanchez key roles in front of legit mlb crowd and atmosphere. That is beautiful – especially when you see sanchez rise to the occasion like that.

Not to mention giving nanita the closest thing to a meaningful mlb at bat he’ll ever have.

Good stuff all around.

Good juju everywhere this spring.
China fan - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#283902) #
SK in NJ: you're wrong to claim that I dislike negative statements. I've got no problem with negativity if you provide evidence to support it. You claimed AA is "fixated" with Jeffress and you claimed this was "insane" but you provided no evidence for either claim. AA is obviously not "fixated" with Jeffress since he waived the guy last year. You claimed Jeffress cannot help the Jays this year. When I called you on it, you changed your tune and said Jeffress won't be "important" to the Jays this year -- a totally different statement. Evidence and consistency would be nice.
greenfrog - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#283905) #
Mike, I take it you mean individual billionaires (as opposed to corporate ones). Still, Atlanta seems to be doing a pretty good job of extending promising players in their early years...

Elite young players are now incredibly valuable. If teams play their cards right, they can control them (the Longorias, Trouts, Moores, Freemans, to name a few) at a reasonable cost for eight or nine years. It's an immense advantage. Teams like the Jays need to realize that when they trade someone like Syndergaard, they could well be foregoing cost-effective control for significantly more than six years. The way that FA salaries for top players (when they become available) have gone into orbit, it's imperative to acquire and develop your own strong talent base. That can include IFA "prospects" like Jose Abreu, of course.
Mike Green - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#283906) #
Actually, it's much more important for position players than for pitchers.  Yesterday's ace, like a Tim Lincecum, may or may not be great 5 years on.  The lower dropout/dropdown rate for position players makes it much more profitable route for owners to extend them.  Which is another reason why one ought to take a balance of position players and pitchers in the early rounds of drafts (if anything emphasizing to a modest degree position players). 
Chuck - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#283908) #
Speaking of extending young players, Yan Gomes just signed a 6/23 deal with Cleveland. Has his lot in life every changed in the past 12 months.
Mike Green - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#283909) #
Catchers are another semi-exception.  I probably wouldn't be that excited, as an owner, to give out a long-term contract to a catcher (unless it's a player who has the hitting ability to comfortably change positions.  On the other hand, 6/23 is hardly a huge commitment.   The average annual value is less than a role player's salary, not forgetting that the pre-arb and 1st year arb figures would have been low. 

Nice to see for Gomes.

greenfrog - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#283910) #
I was thinking the same thing about position players versus pitchers. Still, the contracts given to promising young pitchers like Mike Moore and Martin Perez don't have a lot of downside for the team. The team takes on some risk, but it's a manageable risk. And of course, the team always has the option of going year-to-year for a total of seven years' control (if the player's service clock is delayed). The bottom line is that having top talent from the outset of the players' careers gives a team tremendous advantage. The team gets their cheapest, and often best (and healthiest), years.
gnor - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#283918) #
Gomes had a great year last year, and congrats on the extension. Me, I would have waited a year to do the deal if I was Cleveland.
    •  He hit well in one season, in 88 games with 322 PA. It may be an entirely different picture this year now that he's on the radar and the regular catcher.
    •  He's not even eligible for arbitration yet, so there's plenty of time to see if he's figured it out.
    •  He has only exceeded last year's numbers 3 times in a 5 year minor league career: once in rookie ball, once in the PCL, and once in 6 games in AAA last year.

I wish him well, but it seems a bit premature to me.
John Northey - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#283920) #
Gnor - very good point. I was thinking the same thing about Gomes.  Right now he has just over a years service so he might have been a super-two next year but also might not have.  Thus for Cleveland they bought out one year of free agency and all his arbitration years plus 1 or 2 years of the minimum salary years.  These will cover ages 26-31 which is excellent (the core years).  $23 mil over 6 years is just an average of $3.8 mil a year but if the first 2 are pre-arb then you are getting 4 for $22 mil or $5.5 per.  Great deal if he is a starter, but if he slips then it would be a 'meh' deal for a backup.  Worst case, total flop, would be annoying for them but I can see a lot of potential profit for Cleveland if he performs anywhere near 2013's level.  Plus of signing him now is Gomes still has his dumping by Toronto fresh in his mind and knows it could all vanish thus takes this deal and could be a all-star if 2013 is his true level. Wait a year and the cost could double (repeats 2013), or drop to nothing (if he fails).

Bottom line? At $23 mil, if the Cleveland braintrust thinks Gomes is at least a solid backup catcher it will be a decent deal, if he is a starter for those 6 years it will be a steal and if he is anywhere near last year it will be a 'wow' deal.

scottt - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#283921) #
Waiting a year would have cost more, but I still would have waited too.
Thomas - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#283922) #
The contract extension suggests to me that Cleveland has a lot of faith in Gomes' defensive ability. The available data suggests he is very good at framing pitches and I think Cleveland's internal numbers must be consistent with that finding.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#283923) #
Don't forget that Cleveland has had a full year to see Gomes in action, so they don't have to rely exclusively on stats and minor-league scouting reports. They clearly like what they've seen of him.
bpoz - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#283924) #
I wonder which team thought they were getting a steal? Looking at perceived upside, E Rogers may have the highest upside. Y Gomes and M Aviles have to prove themselves each year.
In about 3 years a much more clear evaluation could be made. My guess is that neither team will be significantly better.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#283926) #
For fun, I looked up Trout's "Similar Batters through 21" on BRef. Here's the list:

1. Frank Robinson (957) *
2. Mickey Mantle (939) *
3. Orlando Cepeda (929) *
4. Al Kaline (924) *
5. Jimmie Foxx (922) *
6. Vada Pinson (922)
7. Ted Williams (918) *
8. Hank Aaron (917) *
9. Ken Griffey (915)
10. Tony Conigliaro (907)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml

Clearly, the guy is a scrub waiting to happen. Babe Ruth isn't even on the list.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#283927) #
Is it fair to say that Gomes is the best positional player prospect developed by the Jays since Aaron Hill?

Times are tough when you develop only a couple of good homegrown positional players in a decade, and you give them both away for next to nothing.
Original Ryan - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#283928) #
Clearly, the guy is a scrub waiting to happen. Babe Ruth isn't even on the list.

Trout was a pitcher in high school. Had the Angels stuck him on the mound every fifth day and let him play centre field the other four days, we might be talking about the next Babe Ruth.

SK in NJ - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#283929) #
"SK in NJ: you're wrong to claim that I dislike negative statements. I've got no problem with negativity if you provide evidence to support it. You claimed AA is "fixated" with Jeffress and you claimed this was "insane" but you provided no evidence for either claim. AA is obviously not "fixated" with Jeffress since he waived the guy last year. You claimed Jeffress cannot help the Jays this year. When I called you on it, you changed your tune and said Jeffress won't be "important" to the Jays this year -- a totally different statement. Evidence and consistency would be nice."

You are confused. I never changed my tune on Jeffress. In fact, I clearly said that even if he reached his imaginary upside that he still wouldn't be worth much to a team that already has a stacked pen. So, in other words, I'm saying he sucks right now, but never dismissed that he could be good next year or in the future. It's just not worth keeping him over a 4th bench player. Is that really what you are so upset about?

Also, this is the quote that you responded to:

"....I'm hoping the team's objective is to make the playoffs in 2014. Jeffress does not help that...."

You then (predictably) tried to pick the post apart because it implied the Jays were doing something, even though anyone with any sort of objectivity would agree with that statement.

A good reliever is worth a win (give or take) over a full season. Jeffress is not a good reliever (yet). Unless you're expecting Jeffress to turn into an elite reliever like Craig Kimbrel, what exactly are you disagreeing with? You think he will help the team as the 8th reliever in a stacked pen over a 4th bench player? Come on. David Carpenter, a reliever who the Jays gave up for nothing, had a 1.78 ERA and 10.14 K/9 in 65 IP for the Braves last year and still wasn't worth a win. You are grossly overrating Jeffress here, or are playing devil's advocate for no reason.

And I stand by my statement that the Jays are "insane" for keeping him over a 4th bench player (hyperbole isn't supposed to taken as literal so no need to get offended). Relievers with great fastballs and no control are a dime a dozen. Some pan out, most flame out. If Jeffress pans out, again, who cares? It's not going to help the Jays more than a platoon partner for Lind or another bench player who could provide depth for injury prone position players.

And yes, AA is "fixated" with Jeffress. This is a guy who walked 5-6 batters per 9 in the minors, and walked 7 per 9 in Spring Training, yet still made the team as an 8th reliever on a team with Izturis, Thole, and Sierra on the bench. If you're offended by the hyperbole, then I'll change it to "AA really, really like Jeffress". Same deal.
PeterG - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#283930) #
Janssen placed on DL with lower back strain.....Kratz recalled.

those wishing the 4 man bench will be happy.

greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#283931) #
I think part of the problem is that (since they were too cheap to sign someone like Ellis, Morales or Drew, or go get a decent RH bat in a trade) the Jays currently don't have another position player who could make much of a difference off the bench.

Also, AA has been burned so often with pitching injuries that he's probably just trying to protect his pitching depth. I wouldn't be surprised if he switches to a four-man bench once the season is underway, when he feels he has a better shot at demoting a reliever without losing him to waivers.
SK in NJ - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#283932) #
Interesting that they went with Kratz instead of someone with more versatility on the field. If Kratz could mash lefties, then it would have been a good move to platoon with Lind, but he seems to have reversed splits, so if he is not catching, he won't be of much use for the team (last time he played a non-C/1B position was in 2008).

I guess Santos will close early on?
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#283933) #
Janssen placed on DL with lower back strain.....Kratz recalled

Looks like everything is working out well for AA so far (Happ and Janssen on the DL, thereby avoiding (or postponing) tough decisions re Jeffress, Rogers and Redmond). I would like to see Janssen recalled only when he's fully healthy, as opposed to the Jays' usual approach to players recovering from injuries.

Kratz isn't much of a RH bat, though.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#283935) #
Trout was a pitcher in high school

Interesting - I didn't know this. Although I imagine many ML positional players also doubled as pitchers when they were in HS.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#283936) #
That's fine.  Kratz can catch and Navarro can DH against a lefty.

On the broadcast yesterday, Buck was saying that the Jays will have four LH bats in the starting lineup against Price on Opening Day.  Hopefully, this move means Navarro will DH instead of Lind with Kratz as your backup catcher on the bench. 

greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#283937) #
That the Jays were considering starting four lefty bats against Price (including, presumably, Rasmus, Thole, Lind and Goins) is highly disconcerting. It's as though the team had learned nothing over the last few years.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#283938) #
I'm going to attempt to get through the regular season without listening to a single word of Buck or Tabby (mostly through judicious use of the mute button). We'll see if I can pull it off.
JB21 - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#283939) #
The Jays will have four LH bats in the starting lineup against Price on Opening Day.

This confuses me. Why is Sierra on the team then?
uglyone - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#283941) #
Fangraphs positional power rankings:

Designated Hitter (Rank of 15tms)

1. BOS: 3.1
2. TOR: 2.3
6. BAL: 1.3
9. TBR: 1.1
10. NYY: 1.0

Catcher (Rank of 30tms)

5. NYY: 3.7war
6. BAL: 3.6
18. TOR: 2.8
23. TBR: 2.5
25. BOS: 2.3

First Base

5. BAL: 3.5
11. NYY: 3.0
15. TOR: 2.6
16. BOS: 2.5
21. TBR: 1.6

Second Base

2. TBR: 4.4
3. BOS: 4.3
22. NYY: 1.5
29. BAL: 1.1
30. TOR: 0.1

Third Base

1. TBR: 6.3
6. BAL: 3.7
7. TOR: 3.7
19. BOS: 2.3
25. NYY: 1.5

Shortstop

6. TBR: 3.2
7. BAL: 3.1
8. TOR: 3.1
11. BOS: 2.7
26. NYY: 1.1

Left Field

8. NYY: 2.7
18. BOS: 1.4
19. BAL: 1.4
23. TOR: 1.2
25. TBR: 0.9

Right Field

3. TOR: 4.5
7. BOS: 2.9
10. TBR: 2.7
17. NYY: 1.8
27. BAL: 1.2

Center Field

3. NYY: 4.6
10. TBR: 3.0
12. TOR: 2.9
14. BAL: 2.8
23. BOS: 2.0


Starting Pitching

2. BOS: 15.4
4. NYY: 15.0
10. TBR: 12.3
15. BAL: 10.5
18. TOR: 10.1

Relief Pitching

1. BOS: 4.9
5. TOR: 3.5
11. NYY: 2.7
14. TBR: 2.2
20. BAL: 1.6


Basically the Jays are projected to be a team that's more than competitive across the board, with 3 significant weak spots.

1. Second Base - it's projected to be probably the worst position performance of any team in baseball - and I can't disagree. I'm literally just hoping we can get replacement value from that slot, and doubt we can get even league average from there. We really, really, REALLY should sign Drew.

2. Left Field - I think this is where their projections are definitely going to be wrong. Not only has Melky crushed all spring, but watching him you see an entirely different player. The crippled old man from last year is gone, and the athletic player in his prime that we signed is back. Still doubt he can match his PED performance, but I'll take the over on his projection here quite easily.

3. Starting Pitching - and here's the rub. The fangraphs writers actually seemed surprised by what the numbers told them about the Jays' rotation - that it actually wasn't near as bad as the hype has led everyone to believe. That there is a bunch of talent here. Safe to say that this is the key to our season, and at the very least I'm glad we're betting on arms like Hutch, Morrow, and McGowan instead of arms like Redmond, Rogers, and Happ. If we can stay anywhere near healthy, I don't doubt that this will be at the very least an above average rotation, and a huge upgrade over last year. That being said, the Fangraphs writeup of our Starting Pitching is 100% bang on....and I'd even extend the gist of this writeup to the rest of the team as a whole:

"I’m not sure there’s a higher variance rotation anywhere in baseball. For nearly every pitcher on this team, you could make a somewhat compelling case for almost any outcome. Mark Buehrle has a long track record of consistently outperforming his peripherals, and his peripherals aren’t terrible; he’s also a 35 year old with an 84 mph fastball in Toronto. R.A. Dickey won the Cy Young two years ago, but he was basically an average pitcher last year and turned 39 at the end of last year. Brandon Morrow is a longtime enigma. Drew Hutchison is a rookie working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Dustin McGowan’s arm is held together with scotch tape; not even the good kind, the cheap generic version you get at the dollar store.

So, yeah, maybe the Blue Jays rotation will be average. Or maybe it will be amazing. Or maybe it will be terrible. I have no idea. This feels like an optimistic forecast, but then again, these guys all have talent and some track record of success. It wouldn’t be that weird if Dickey’s knuckler went back to being incredible, Buehrle outperformed his FIP, and a couple of top prospects finally were healthy enough to show why they were top prospects. It also just wouldn’t be that weird if soft-tossing senior citizens got lit up and broken pitchers stayed broken. This rotation is basically just one big bag of who the hell knows."



And here's how the teams rank when you add all that WAR up:

1. BOS 43.8
2. TBR 40.2
3. NYY 38.6
4. TOR 36.8
5. BAL 33.8

Replacement level Team Wins is 47.7, so these projections come out to these records:

1. BOS: 92-70
2. TBR: 88-74
3. NYY: 86-76
4. TOR: 85-77
5. BAL: 81-83
John Northey - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#283942) #
If Lind starts against a LHP on opening day I will want to scream at Gibbons and the entire Jays braintrust.  It takes a special kind of stupid to start Lind against a LHP when you have a RH bat on the bench.  Years ago when he was starting out, OK I could see it.  Even in his first big season giving it a shot. But now? I mean, c'mon, even in his good years he hits like John McDonald against LHP.
uglyone - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#283943) #
"Buck was saying that the Jays will have four LH bats in the starting lineup against Price on Opening Day."


Listening to Buck's roster ruminations? have you learned nothing over the years?
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#283944) #
I guess the opening lineup might look like this:

SS Reyes
LF Cabrera
RF Bautista
1B EE
3B Lawrie
DH Navarro
CF Rasmus
C Thole
2B Goins

Question: would you substitute Kratz for Thole? Izturis for Goins? Against Price, the #8/9 spots in the above lineup are about as weak as it gets (and three straight LHB against Price seems like a bad idea).

RHB have hit 243/304/380 against Price in his career. LHB have hit 198/253/281. Think about it, AA and Gibbons. Really think about it.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#283945) #
Also, fwiw, in his career, Rasmus is 200/273/200 (22 PA) against Price.

Maicer is 385/429/385 (14 PA).

I think I would start both Kratz and Izturis (Izturis for sure), and then make defensive substitutions later in the game as necessary.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#283948) #
Did I read that correctly, someone is predicting that the Yankees 1B position will outpace the Jays? I'll take that bet.
China fan - Monday, March 31 2014 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#283963) #
"....I'm saying he sucks right now...."

And I'm saying that this is not much of an analysis. It's just a meaningless insult. "Argos suck," etc, etc. Not really useful on this site.

"....Unless you're expecting Jeffress to turn into an elite reliever like Craig Kimbrel, what exactly are you disagreeing with?...."

Relievers not named Craig Kimbrel can be helpful too. An 8th reliever can be helpful. It's very strange to assert that only an "elite" reliever is helpful. As we've discussed before, an 8th reliever can reduce the strain on the rotation and the top relievers. To suggest that a reliever is useless unless they produce a one-win WAR over an entire season is frankly odd.

"....If you're offended by the hyperbole...."

I'm glad that you're finally acknowledging that you were engaging in hyperbole. That was my entire point from the beginning. The Merriam-Webster definition of hyperbole: "extravagant exaggeration."
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