"And not offering the qualifying offer to Josh Johnson looks even dumber in hindsight than it did at the time."

Jimenez is off the Market.  4 years for 50 million. To the Orioles (who loses thier 1st round draft pick and now,will probably pick up other players who have picks attached to them ).

This is probably a move for the Orioles to keep him from the Red Sox\Jays.

This means we either try to get Santana or stick with what we got.  I would rather see Hutchinson than Santana...

And, much more importantly, place him on the Orioles.

I saw this tidbit and I thought I would share: In 2013, Toronto had the first team in its history with 4 players (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus) having 125 OPS+ in 450 PA. The Blue Jays also had their first team with 7 pitchers (Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow, Todd Redmond, Esmil Rogers) having 10 or more starts, and all with an ERA+ under 100. (highheatstats.com)

That's an amazing top-end offense, with absolutely nothing in support (i.e., C, 2B, LF, SS, 3B) to allow it to be an actual good offense. And the pitching...oh the pitching. Yeesh. At least Romero didn't get 10 starts...I know it's often been a multi-year process to change, and there might not be an obvious replacement on the pitching side, but is Romero sticking around in the header bar? I've seen "pull a Romero" thrown around in non-Jays contexts this offseason as a "unrealistic that things (typically a contract) could turn out this bad, but it has happened" shorthand.

2014 Jays goal - be less depressing to follow.

The rumours are that the Jays are out on Santana. I'm not surprised, and not necessarily disappointed by that particular move, but this offseason has left a lot to be desired.

The Jays showed up the prom, got turned down during the first slow dance, and appear to have retreated to the punch bowl rather than giving it another shot.

92-93, I don't know if your concerns fell on deaf ears. I recall several other commentors prefacing their evaluation of the trades with the assumption that there would remain room to manouvre within the payroll parameters, particularly in light of the fact it was assumed that the club would want to resign Johnson and it was assumed that these other moves would not ensure that Johnson was a one-year rental and that the team would be competitive when attempting to sign him to an externsion.

In any case, I'm in complete agreement with the assessment made by you and Mike Green about the performance of front office and management this offseason, as well as the larger questions of which free agents did this club ever expect to be competitive on? Santana and Jiminez are not getting as much as you might have thought when the offseason opened, but the Jays still aren't willing to match their price, they were never really in on Tanaka, and yet they also never seemed to be interested in short-term, riskier signings like Kazmir, Haren or Colon.

1. No player had 5+ WAR last year and the top 2 were Rasmus and Bautista with 118 games played each followed by EE at 142 games (all 4 WAR guys).  Reyes was at 2.5 in just 93 games, Lawrie 2.3 in 107.  So 5 core hitters who missed between 20 and 69 games last year with all but one missing 40+ games.  That is a big, big factor.  Put all of them up to 140 games other than EE of course and you add 3.6 wins (no factor for what better health might mean beyond playing time)
2. Goins vs Izturis/Bonifacio - Lets put Goins at 0 WAR (even though he had 1.4 in 34 games but that was driven by insane defensive figures that won't happen again).  I/B last year combined for -0.9 WAR so there is another +0.9 (praying Izturis is released or at least replacement level)
3. Cabrera was -0.1 WAR last year...lets pencil him in at 0.5 this year (0.6 gained) assuming his back is better but not PED better.
4. JPA was 0.1 WAR last year, replaced by Navarro who had 2 WAR last year. Lets cut that from nearly 2 WAR to just 1 WAR to be safe.
   

So on offense/defense we can easily see 6 more wins without asking for anything crazy to happen (just one DL stint each for Lawrie & Bautista might be stretching it though).

For pitchers the best we saw was a 2.1 WAR from Buehrle and 2.0 from Dickey.  We also saw Rogers & Redmond combine for 1.0 WAR.

1. Josh Johnson is gone and so is his -1.5 WAR. Lets assume the Jays can find replacement level to replace him
2. Morrow was at -0.6 which is crazy low for his talent level.  Lets pencil him in for 1.0 (not a big leap)
3. Other disasters were Wang (-0.6), Ortiz (-0.2), Romero (-0.3), Laffey (-0.1) and Nolin (-0.3) lets assume 0 WAR replacements (1.5 WAR improvement)
4. Give Dickey/Buehrle 5 WAR instead of 4.1 this year - a 0.9 improvement
5. Assume Happ/Rogers/Redmond combined do as well this year (1.1 WAR total) which isn't expecting much from them.
   

That gives an improvement of 4.0 WAR from the starters.  Lets just assume the pen works out the same in the end.

That means a total, with no 'wow' improvements of 10 wins.  That just requires a small amount of health and for the new starters to be replacement level and a slight improvement for Dickey/Buehrle that is still less than they have done previously.  That gets the Jays up to 84 wins.

Now, add in luck based improvements (3 wins below pythagorean win total last year) and you get 87 wins.  So, what happens if anyone steps up - be it Goins being above replacement level, Lawrie playing better, Cabrera being a solid LFer, or a kid coming on in the rotation?  Then you get 90+ wins.  Get some of the luck based wins that we've seen other clubs get, even just a couple more wins instead and you get 90+ as well.

These Jays are a lot better than we think right now, just like last years was worse than we thought.  Lets hope they have a small amount of luck in the health department and a bit more in the W-L vs runs for / against area and then playoffs are easily possible.

Gregor Chisholm has a full transcript up on his site of AA's comments today.  I am having problems cutting and pasting but some key take-aways:

He claims to have payroll flexibility, he implies Jimenez and Santana aren't worth the price.

Young pitchers can be optioned up and down, gives you more flexibility, whereas guys like JJ cannot.

He claims that his thinking changed because Morrow, Hutchison and Stroman all looked good in the fall

Izturis has lost weight.

Goins defense is so good that he can help the team with a low OPs as long as he does everything else well.

• Lind: some regression, from a 1.9 WAR to what though? Yeah, that is all his great year was worth. 
  
• Rajai Davis had 1.8 WAR as a super-sub - don't see Sierra doing that but for some reason I keep thinking Pillar might...
• Goins 1.4 WAR I should've removed from the above as I don't expect that again, but if he is playing everyday then maybe the defense over a full season will still add up to that much
• Kawasaki 1.3 WAR is more than anyone had a right to expect. But if given a shot as the backup (and Izturis is gone) then that could happen again
• Sierra is the only other guy with more than 0.1 WAR and at 0.7 that should be reachable
• Rasmus getting 4.8 last year was a bit high and if he pro-rates it over 140 games (as I projected above) he is a MVP candidate...of course it is a contract year for him too.
• The pen was outstanding, with 1-1.5 WAR for Loup, Janssen, Cecil, and Santos.  Delabar at 0.6, Jenkins & Jeffress at 0.5, Wagner/McGowan 0.3 each, Oliver 0.2 totaling 7.8 WAR which is a lot from a pen.  But the others (not counting starters like Rogers) totaled -0.4 pushing it down to 7.4 WAR.  Is that likely, to average a win per reliever? 
  

I don't agree that they have improved. Jimenez is a nice addition but I think he'll merely offset Davis's inevitable regression. And we'll see just how healthy Machado really is.

I simply offered the position that I disagreed that the Orioles had improved themselves.

• Rogers has told AA not to spend any more money, and has also told him that, if he wants to keep his job, he can't tell anybody that he is not allowed to spend any more money.
• AA has decided that not bringing in new players is the best course of action for the team.

• Drop Lind by 1 WAR from 1.9 to 0.9
• Sierra vs Davis, 1.8 WAR vs 0.7, lets remove all of Davis and say Sierra and others only reach 0.7 (leaving Gose,Pillar at their respective 0.1 & -0.2 levels)
• Goins at replacement so remove 1.4 more WAR
• Kawasaki at 0, so 1.3 more gone
• Cut 2 WAR from Rasmus (regression)
  
• Cut 2 WAR from pen (regression)

That removes 9.5 WAR leaving the Jays at 79 wins overall.  An improvement but not enough to get back to 500 let alone contend. If Rasmus or the pen perform like last year (except with Rasmus in 140 games) then the Jays are a 500 team.

Both sets of assumptions are reasonable for the most part and don't ask anything from a player that is at the peak of their previous performance.  So the Jays, to seriously contend, really need about 10 more wins from somewhere.  The back end of the rotation and something more than replacement level at 2B would do wonders, as would Sierra being a solid partner with Lind or a solid 4th outfielder. 

Right now my bet for the Jays would be a 500 team, which with some luck could be a 90+ win team (10 more wins could occur due to better health than should be expected, some kids stepping up at 2B or #4/5 starter, Lawrie moving from nice to 'woohoo', Cabrera being closer to PED form than pre-PED form, Lind holding onto some of his improvement from last year, our new hitting coach pulling off some magic, etc.).  There is a lot of hope here still, it just isn't a lock for contention (unlike how we felt last year at this time).

If anyone is wondering how a 27-year old can regress, it's just a matter of his 2014 BABIP being closer to .298 (career) than .356 (2013).

I concur. I think that a repeat of his near-5 WAR, or even growth beyond that, is not terribly likely. Not impossible, of course, but not something I'd count on. I think there are enough holes in his game to preclude him from becoming a star caliber player, but there's no reason he shouldn't be a solid contributor for the immediate future.

The Jays claim RHP Liam Hendricks off waivers and DFA Brett Morel.

The Jays have a stacked bullpen with roster problems so they add another pitcher.

The Jays are looking for a right handed hitting 2B who can platoon with Goins, so they DFA Morel.

Got it?

Bonifacio was never expected to be a valuable member of the 2013 team

This is some serious revisionist history. He absolutely was. He was a target in the trade.

As for replacing Josh Johnson: I suppose he's hard to replace if you perceive him as an ace

He was perceived to have ace potential heading into 2013. He was projected to have a 4 win season.

It's not "wishful thinking" to suggest that Johnson's expected performance in 2013 could plausibly be replaced by a reasonable step forward from Hutchison or Stroman or Drabek or someone like that. It's far from guaranteed, but it's incorrect to imply that the Jays have zero chance of replacing his likely performance.

That's a VERY different statement than saying this is the same team that was expected to compete last year. One of those guys may be able to post a 6-7 WAR season, but none of them will have projections anywhere near Josh Johnson's 2013 projection.

but you can't dismiss the entire depth chart as "wishful thinking." Every year, players in this category do step forward and make the breakthrough, and it's not implausible that this could happen with at least one of Hutchison/Stroman/Drabek etc. in 2014.

Like Redmond & Rogers did? Depth wasn't the problem in 2013, the rotation was.

• Starting: Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire , Marcus Stroman, Kyle Drabek, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Sean Nolin, Daniel Norris and others will shake out the weak and hopefully find 3 solid starters.  Having 3 home grown strong ones (100 or better ERA+, 30 starts a year) would help a LOT.
• Relief: probably one or two failed starters (ala Janssen & Cecil) plus John Stilson, Tyler Ybarra, and who knows who else (relief is a big crapshoot).
• Catching: A.J. Jimenez, hrm... who else? Santiago Nessy I guess.
• 1B: hrm... not a strength... Rowdy Tellez might develop...lets hope...but probably more than 3 or 4 years away.

Not really that strong on who is top in the farm...maybe someone else wants to dig into the offense a bit?  The Jays really need some of the A and lower kids to start showing stuff off I'd say in 2014 to have a few be regulars by 2016/2017 once guys fall off the payroll.  Only Reyes is locked in for 2016 and 2017.

When do we lose guys?

• After 2014: Cabrera, Rasmus, Janssen options for Lind, Morrow, Happ, McGowan and Santos (options for 15/16/17)
  
• After 2015: Buehrle, Navarro options for Bautista, Dickey, Encarnacion, Izturis, Romero
  
• After 2016: Cecil, Rogers & Thole
• After 2017: Reyes, Lawrie, Luis Perez, Drabek, Delabar
• After 2018: Kratz, Jeffress, Loup, Hutchison

So we can see when the current core is likely to vanish or get very expensive (if worth keeping of course at that point).  Need some prospects to step up this year so they are ready post 2015 when things could really open up and by 2017 for sure.

• Not having to carry a platoon at DH is very valuable, John, especially for a club insistent on carrying an unnecessary reliever.
• I too don't think adding Morales creates a logjam of any sort

Morales and Lind cannot play anywhere but DH and 1B.  If you have both then how is that different from having a RH DH?  Morales is weaker vs LHP than RHP like Lind is (not as extreme, but weaker still) so both both share the same weakness thus no real extra flexibility gained.  With a 7 man pen (sometimes 8) you have just 13 hitters - 9 regulars plus a backup catcher leaves 3 bench slots.  Those will be Izturis (sadly), Sierra (no options), and who else?  Use it on Morales (or Lind with Morales as the regular) and you have no backup SS other than Goins moving over from 2B and no one on the bench who is a good pinch runner or defender at any position.

I see it as either/or when it comes to Lind or Morales unless the Jays suddenly decide to go with a small pen. With Sierra on the bench you have both a RH DH and a 4th OF (I'd use him in the field and give Bautista or Cabrera or Rasmus a 'day off' at DH).  Ideally the final slot would be a speedy defensive whiz who has trouble hitting (speedy good defensive kids who can hit are all-stars) or a Kawasaki type who can fill in for Reyes and keep him fresh via days off here and there.

Now, if Izturis is dumped you could keep Kawasaki on the bench (or someone like him who can play SS) and you have that slot for a hitter on the bench but I still prefer either a) a third catcher or b) a speedy defensive kid.

That's a great deal of enthusiasm for a 25-year old corner outfielder who doesn't walk and has only gap power. I think he'll have done very well if he can become the new Reed Johnson. It's not entirely clear, however, that the opportunity will even present itself.

That would be foolish if that was actually the case, fortunately it isn't and probably has more to do with Stroman's place as one of the top pitching prospects in the game and their minor league track records which are exceptional. There is also that little MLB stint for Hutchison in 2012 in which he did not look out of place at all. Stroman was ready to contribute at the end of last season, it is only the role in which they both contribute that is in question for me.