For the HOF my choices for...
Vets: Marvin Miller (no chance he gets in), Tommy John, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre - not a fan of Tony La Russa.
Regular: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio.
Regular non-PED rumoured version: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker, Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff.

Still leaving off guys like Mike Mussina (less stacked I would hold my nose, but with one this crowded can ignore him), Rafael Palmeiro*, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire*, Sammy Sosa*.  Guys who I don't feel belong in the HOF who will get tons of votes are Jack Morris, Don Mattingly, and Lee Smith.  Hoping to see Moises Alou get one vote as he was fun to watch when he was an Expo and that horrible broken leg video was quite unforgettable (rounding first he stopped but only his foot stayed still...saw it live on TV).

I suspect that the new Japanese/MLB posting rules will guarantee that the Jays NEVER get a Japanese player who posts. I find it highly unlikely that a Japanese player wanting to go play in the States would settle for Canada. Especially, when he can negotiate with any team who bid the same for him - namely $20,000,000. Sigh - just a little "sigh" not a big one.

As to where the Jays go from here...Price would be nice. But it's always the same with price - can you afford the cost?

I've a good feeling about several things: 1) Morrow...I may be alone - but I think the little sh*t will actually turn into he who we all thought he could be. 2) In my many decades of watching blockbuster baseball trades I've often noted that the trades were quite a disappointment in their first year but seemed to be what they were initially hoped to be in the 2nd year and thereafter...I'm going all in that that will be the case with AA's last year haul of trinkets and shiny pieces of fluff.

Earlier this off season I've mentioned my man crush on Rasmus. AA don't trade him - (despite his batting average on balls in play last year) I KNOW the guy has turned a corner and will be a stud in 14 - I guarantee it.

By July, two of: Stroman, Hutchison and Nolan will be READY to play BETTER than at least two of the guys who make the team out of the spring. Jimenez will/may be ready by that time too.

We might just become contenders again - like well into August at least.

To JN

Jays should consider trading for Chris Sale . Give up Sanchez plus one of prospects Nolin /tirado plus two B level prospects.
Where SHark has two years left before free agency , Sale is covered to 2019 with options.
The 6 years of Sanchez can be rationalized by the 6 years of firm contract and the MLB history of Sale.
Secondarily cut a deal for Trevor Cahill of Arizona who has options till 2017 , this would include a reliever and a prospect from the jays expand the deal it if you want Chris owings.
Now your Starting Pitching is set for three years . Dickey, sale, buerhle, morrow and Cahill- with enough depthsupport by Hutch and Stroman and Happ .

This solidify the Starting Pitching

I think the Cubs (Shark) and A's (Anderson) are doing what the A's did a couple of years ago with Gio: in a sellers' market, let it be known that a SP is available, put a few rumours out there to stoke the bidding, wait a while until buyers start feeling hungry or desperate, then make the best deal they can.

I think the Jays are more pretenders than contenders at this point, especially given the competition in the division. More than just adding a quality SP or two, they need to start playing good baseball. Last year they gave away outs, ABs, and failed at many of the subtler aspects of the game. They seemed outclassed by a number of teams in terms of baseball IQ, consistency and execution. Somehow all this needs to improve.

Every Team can put in a $20.0 MM bid. Only one team pays it. It just needs a GM to want to bid. Now this needs a different mind set. Make the biggest and best offer. Six years is a standard term (3 pre-arb, 3 arby), so more years are needed. Price is harder to guesstimate. This works for all Postings.

As to Tanaka, offer to pitch him after RA Dickey (for the effect). Sign Kawasaki and he could negotiate with him.

As for David Price, you'll need to offer a top prospect who can play now, a second top prospect who can play within a year. That is a must. (Stroman matches, but Sanchez doesn't.) The rest of the package varies, but I don't know what else to offer. I just don't think we have enough to make a deal.

In terms of 2B, my interest is in the fallout in Seattle if they sign Cano. They started the year with Dustin Ackley at 2B and when he underperformed they sent him down and later called him up to play CF/LF. In his age 25 season he put up an OPS+ of 90, though with a substantially higher OPS+ after his call up.

They replaced Ackley at 2B with Nick Franklin who posted an OPS+ of 96 in his age 22 season.

While neither of them have performed at a high level, both have a strong pedigree in the minors, with good On-Base skills and decent fielding.

I would look to pry one of them away from Seattle; for what price I don't know as they are gifted with a lot of young starters already.

Iwakuma would be my choice for the rotation, but I don't see how the Jays can get him. Besides, Seattle is reportedly looking to add, not subtract, starting pitching.

Yes, but somehow doesnt happen unless you make some more changes.

That is why suggestions for Sale and Cahill would complete your Starting Pitching Rotation, while the others pursue Free Agents ,Shark and Anderson.

With Chicago there are synergies.Relief Pitching at Reasonable prices will be in demand.

Interesting point about Seattle if they sign Cano. Suddenly 2 decent young 2B are available. The Mariners also have issues with their pen (one guy with 10+ innings pitched out of the pen had an ERA+ over 100...and he walked over 5 per 9 IP).  Seattle has the big 2 starters (Felix and Iwakuma) plus 2 kids who did well in brief callups (Paxton and Walker) so one or two more starters plus Cano and they become very interesting.  The pen would be their only downfall and the Jays have relievers up the wazoo so one of those 2 second basemen for a package of relief might be a good match of needs. Nick Franklin would be sweet but odds are he'd be part of a package for a starting pitcher.   Ackley would also be nice though.  Basically for either I'd say take any relievers you want and we'll even toss in a Drabek or someone.

Looks like the Cano -Seattle thing ain't a happening.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/mariners-talks-with-cano-fall-through.html

Even without Cano, the Mariners do have a bit of a surplus with Miller, Franklin and Ackley.  Ackley really should be playing second base, so that if he struggles with the bat, he still has value.  I wonder what the Mariners would want for him. 

Ackley ended up receiving an organizational award for defense player of the year (2013 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Award,). I don't know if such awards are based on any common defensive metrics, nor whether it is based on his work at 2B, the outfield, or his collective body of work. Either way, given his historically high OBP, he would make an ideal 2B for the Jays going forward if you could find a trade match.

Ackley is probably not a centerfielder.  I wonder if the Mariners would have interest in Anthony Gose...

Mike: Gose for Ackley would be a nice challenge trade.

I'd do Gose for Ackley. Toss in a reliever too.

Gose is 23 with a lifetime 78 OPS+ in 342 PA  -6.6 UZR/150 in the OF (yes, negative).
Ackley is 26 with a lifetime 92 OPS+ in 1471 PA 7.3 UZR/150 at 2B, -19.7 in the outfield

So Ackley sucks in the outfield but is very good at 2B (leader in UZR is normally in the low teens).  Gose so far has been poor with both bat and defense but is 3 years younger.  The Jays have other outfield prospects on the edge of the majors (Sierra, Pillar) but nada for middle infield outside of Goins who might hit as well as John McDonald.

I've been on the Ackley bandwagon since he got demoted last year & I think Kevin Seitzer's hitting approach will mesh well with Ackley, Franklin would be okay too (pulling for Cano to Seattle) - too bad AA seemed to put 2nd base on the back burner in his media conference for the winter meetings. I wonder whom the 3 pitchers the jays are targeting - Samardzija, Sale, Price? fun speculation - given the jays recent trade record & the price of pitching, I fear the jays will overpay significantly -  I'm leaning with going with what we have - maybe add a reclamation project like Hammel - it's disappointing reading that AA seem to put the kibosh on going after FA talent.
My winter meeting expectations for the Jays - very modest - the team moves a couple of  out of options BP guys.

Sounds like Cano to Mariners for 10 years, $240 million is a done deal.
Ackley would be quite nice.

Here is the link for the Cano deal.  Good chance to practice one's Spanish.

And, let me add that $240 million is an awfully large sum.  He's got to amass about 35 WAR over the rest of his career for the Mariners break even.  It could happen, but the Mariners are basically paying for the best case scenario. 

It's going to be nice not to see Cano in a Yankees jersey for a change. Thanks Mariners!

With Cano in the fold, Seattle might make a big push for Price - willing to part with Taijuan Walker?

Well, I can't really fault the Jays for not paying that for Cano. Happily he leaves the AL East and goes towards making the AL west better throughout (hurts chances at a wildcard).

With granderson going to the Mets the Yanks are reeling a bit, but I expect them to recover with a few Red Sox-style signings.

I'm a bit reluctant to move Gose, as he's the only centre fielder other than Rasmus. Pillar might be good enough to fill in here and there, but probably isn't the guy you want playing for a couple weeks if Rasmus goes on the DL.

Besides, as much as I've been a skeptic of Gose, this feels like selling very, very low. Admittedly, I don't entirely see the appeal of Ackley, either; aside from his nice rookie season, all he's really done is hit in the PCL.

Wow, $240 mil for 10 years.  Tied for biggest non-A-Rod contract ever with Pujols.  Likely to blow up in a few years on Seattle, but wow.  Given how 2B tend to age I'd say it is more likely to work out to $48 mil a year for 5 years then 5 years of wasting a roster slot.  But who knows.

Boy does this jump the odds of their two young second basemen being traded for the rest of what they need.  Seattle needs pitching, pitching, pitching.  2 very solid starters, 2 kid starters and a ton of 'oh god no, not him'.  For either of those kids would you give up Janssen/Cecil/Delabar?  I would. 

Admittedly, I don't entirely see the appeal of Ackley, either; aside from his nice rookie season, all he's really done is hit in the PCL

If you make the Safeco adjustment, he's basically hit .250 with medium range pop and some walks.  For a fine fielding second baseman, that has plenty of value.  For a poor fielding centerfielder, it doesn't. 

All 3 relievers? I'd probably still do it for Ackley, Franklin they can have 1 and filler- not as sold on him. I think Ackley is going to progress alot like Alex Gordon: Advanced bat, goes through the system so quickly that the organization doesn't see the flaws. Scuffles at the major league level but eventually figures it out and puts together productive seasons.

Basically like Travis Snider but with a happier ending.

The Yankees infield is currently:
1B: the ghost of Mark Teixeira
2B: Kelly Johnson
SS: Brendan Ryan and the ghost of Derek Jeter
3B: the ghost of ARod, the ghost of Youk or TBA (if suspension takes place)

Not terribly inspiring. I imagine a Mark Ellis signing is in the offing. Not sure what their 3B options are even if they find out ARod is gone for a year. Eric Chavez may be thinking he's got a one-year $10M paycheque coming his way.

The outfield is betterish:
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Suzuki/Wells

A few injuries to this old team and a dubious lineup is in serious trouble.

Presumably Beltran, Stephen Drew, and Tanaka are on the way but it still lacks thump without some serious bounceback years.

Kuroda's back with the Yankees. Tanaka may not post (Team unwilling to trade Star for pittance). Ervin Santana, Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez are Tier One Free Agent Pitchers. A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon and Bronson Arroyo are Tier Three due to age and shouldn't be on this team. Everyone else isn't better than the injury group we already have.

I don't know what Plan C is, but plan B is running out of value.

Every day I see another player who would have been a good option for us off the table. In this case we should have paid that (3/30) to Feldman. I can't imagine, cash being equal, that he goes to the Astros unless he really took up roots in Texas when he played for the Rangers.

I will reserve full judgement until the end of the offseason because there are still plenty of good options out there but I thought that the McCann, Salty, Feldman, Hudson, Kazmir, and Chris Young deals were good value. It would have been nice to have something more than Dioner Navarro to look forward to as I decide to renew my flex pack.

I have never quite understood the hype surrounding Ackley. His minor league track record suggested a good but not great hitter whose prospect status never seemed to be justified given his actual performance. He played in AA and AAA at what are generally age appropriate seasons for prospects and produced fine if not spectacular results. It is ironic that it was assumed from day one that he would hit and that it would be his defense at second base that might hinder his development. Instead the opposite has been true to start his career. That said, if he could even approach a league average bat he would be a massive upgrade at 2B for the Jays given what they endured at the position last season. I just wouldn't be willing to give up much in the way of value in that trade as there seems to be only marginal upside to Ackley as he enters his age 26 season.

Let's say Ackley's upside is roughly Johnny Ray, Dave Cash, Buck Herzog.  That's a valuable player in the mid-20s.   To go from 0 WAR to 5 WAR is kind of important. Even if he gives you league-average performance, that's a nice step forward.

That would be a nice step forward Mike, and considering the Jays received negative WAR from their 2B last season the bar isn't even that high. The question becomes what is the likelihood that Ackley is able to provide that step and how much value do you want to spend on that gamble? Looking at his cummulative performance record as a pro I am not sure what the probability of Ackley providing a significant contribution is at this point.

It's not that unlikely.  He has been a significantly above-average defensive second baseman by every measure since his arrival in the major leagues.  As an everyday second baseman, he has been a 3 WAR/season player so far in his career.  This past year, the Mariners moved him to the outfield where (by every measure) he was bad. 

When you take him out of Safeco, he has had medium range pop and decent plate control.  He's at an age where players often enough reach their peaks in these departments and if that happens, you have something quite valuable. 

I like the Cano deal for Seattle, but it depends on who else is added. But the biggest gain is Toronto, the Yankees don't have him.

For second baseman, may I know what the total WAR/season spectrum of a major league player ? Say 0-1 WAR as the sum of offense and defense WAR is replacement level, 2-3 WAR average, etc..

As of Gose's trade value, he may be appealing to franchise in need of prospects. Otherwise, the Jays need to keep develop him.

How about Sierra for Ackley

You forgot about Soriano, Chuck.  I guess he'll be in LF?

I would be in favour of prying away Iwakuma and Franklin from the M's. Iwakuma is excellent, cheap, and under contract for two years (including his 2015 club option). I'm not sure if he becomes arb-eligible or a FA at that point; obviously if he's arb-eligible only, that would further increase his value.

According to Klaw, Franklin is "a switch-hitter who's got surprising pop from the left side" who should probably give up switch-hitting, and who defensively "should eventually be above-average to plus" at 2B. The 22-year-old was a 287/360/459 hitter in the minors. He struggled somewhat in his rookie year last year but still produced 2.3 WAR.

The problem is that that would probably require sending them Bautista. I might still make that trade if the Jays could secure Choo or a lesser, competent two-way corner OF along the lines of Aoki or DeJesus. I would hate to lose Bautista, but these moves would give the Jays a #2 starter, a young up-and-coming controllable player at 2B, and a decent-hitting right fielder who would provide a defensive upgrade at the position.

Improbable, I know.

I don't think Cano's contract is completely insane, although it is a very large commitment. I would rather have Cano at 10/240 (starting in 2014) than Pujols at 10/240 (starting in 2012). Cano plays up the middle and is almost a year younger than Pujols was when his big contract started. And baseball's significant rate of inflation means that Cano's annual salary won't be so outsized in the last 3-5 years of the contract.

Enormous financial commitment aside, Cano from ages 30-40 makes more sense in Seattle (natural grass) than in Toronto (body-wrecking artificial turf). For what it's worth.

The Nats have signed McClouth for 2/$10.75M with a club option for 2016 for $6.5M.

Remember when some thought that the Jays might be able to save some cash by dumping Lind's one year, $7M commitment and signing someone more versatile like DeJesus or McClouth for a couple of mil instead? Welcome to the new baseball economics.

Something tells me we'll be seeing a lot of Sierra and Pillar in 2014.

What snippets I've picked up about the Pitchers A.A.'s after are:
1) They are almost never traded.
2) They are extremely hard to obtain.

I haven't heard anything about anything else, Plan B or otherwise. A.A. is saying nothing new to anyone.

I've heard that the quieter A.A. is, the more that going on. I think that this time next week will tells more about the future team than we expect. (Podcasts carry more stuff than I thought.)

I think that Cano contract is going to cost Zduriencik his job.

You forgot about Soriano, Chuck. I guess he'll be in LF?

I figured he'd be destined for DH. He may well force himself into LF, with Gardner moving to RF, thereby freeing up DH for Jeter and the other gray beards.

Who the heck are they I wonder...the pitchers AA is after.

The top 10 in MLB for bWAR were ...

1.	Kershaw (LAD)	7.9
2.	Lee (PHI)	7.3
3.	Iwakuma (SEA)	7.0
4.	Sale (CHW)	6.9
5.	Scherzer (DET)	6.7
6.	Fernandez (MIA)	6.3
7.	Sanchez (DET)	6.3
8.	Wainwright (STL)	6.2
9.	Chacin (COL)	5.8
10.	Darvish (TEX)	5.8

Sale is the only one of those I see as possibly available, given Philly thinks of themselves as contenders.  Fernandez was a rookie last year so no way Miami trades him.  Chacin in Colorado maybe? Makes under $5 mil next year then arbitration in 2015 and free agent after that.  For top 10 in each league you can add Quintana (CHW), Hernandez  (Sea), Colon (OAK), Verlander (DET), and Tillman (BAL). NL adds Harvey (NYM), Hamels (PHI), Wood (CHC), De La Rosa (COL), Greinke (LAD).   ChiSox and Rockies could be one-stop shopping which AA enjoys (2 solid starters each, neither a likely contender in 2014).  But Quintana is under 2 years experience so I doubt the ChiSox would trade him while DeLaRosa has just one year of control left. 

Interesting idea, trading for 2 pitchers from Colorado. Doubt that'll happen, but it is an interesting thought.

Beltran is a Yankee. They moved quick.

Napoli signs two year deal with Boston, and Beltran signs three year deal with the Yankees. After the Rays trade Price for Walker and every top prospect Seattle has (you know it will happen) while continuing to remain good, I'm starting to feel like the Jays should just call it quits as far as going for it in 2014. So much has to go right that it's almost a travesty to not sell high on Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, etc, when the market is this inflated.

Who knows. Maybe everything goes right for the Jays next year (it's happened to every other team save for the Royals since the Wild Card was implemented....we are due), but it's looking more and more bleak as the off-season goes on.

I don't think Seattle is a good match for the Rays and Price. I think the Rays can find a better top-tier young player or two elsewhere.

Feel free to call me crazy, but I'm starting to like this Jays off-season better than the last... steady as she goes. I'd put the odds on the Jays finishing first about equal with Beltran finish with 500 PA again.

The problem with that view, that the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are good, is that if you go by past history the Jays will be waiting forever for a time to 'go for it'.  Last winter was the right time, just virtually everything that could go wrong did.  The Yankees still have issues (Wells and Ichiro are not good choices to play regularly, Kelly Johnson at 2B is not a good idea, Jeter/A-Rod provide poor defense and if no A-Rod then who at 3B, Teixeira missed most of last year and at 34 isn't a strong candidate for a solid recovery.  I see lots of potential holes there and while they paper them over with cash it isn't easy buying your way back to the playoffs, especially after losing your 2B, a solid SP (Pettitte), and closer (Rivera).  The Red Sox meanwhile did a massive jump last year but had pretty much everything go right. Generally after a year like that there is a bit of regression.  The Rays continue to trade expensive players for good young ones, but one of these days they'll hit a slump and/or injuries - one of these days.

So for the Jays at this stage it is best to keep trying a long term contender but also fill in holes to be ready if an opening exists.  I'd like more strength at 2B so Goins could be in a John McDonald role, plus a high level starting pitcher.  CA is OK now, not perfect but OK.  Everywhere else is at an acceptable level with potential for great in CF/RF/1B/3B/SS which is a good situation.  So lets hope AA has a rabbit or two in his bag of tricks and we see something solid to cover the next 2 seasons until a few kids are ready to jump into the fray.

I think Boston is playing it pretty smart. They have a lot of cash, but are steadfastly refusing to give out huge contracts (compare Pedroia's contract with Cano's). Yes, they've lost Ellsbury and Salty and Iglesias, and Ortiz is getting up there in age, but they have Bogaerts and JBJ coming up (I really like Bogaerts). They'll have Peavy for a full season in 2014 to give them some additional innings. Maybe Buchholz too. Their new coaching staff and front office have been getting excellent results. There's a lot to like in Beantown. Even if they don't win in '14, they're setting themselves up for long-term success.

So lets hope AA has a rabbit or two in his bag of tricks and we see something solid to cover the next 2 seasons until a few kids are ready to jump into the fray.

----
Tidbits from the Indians and the Twins. The Indians' comeback guy: Scott Kazmir. The Twins' rabbit: Chris Colabello AA signed Dan Johnson, maybe he is the comeback guy.

By the way, where are the podcasts ?

John
The Pitchers A.A.'s after are on Teams that would do deals with A.A. if they couldn't get what they needed from Free Agency. (Primetime Sports appearance/interview - when???). A.A. did say when asked if two deals were accepted, that he had options to complete both.

With Gose,Pillar and Sierra as adequate Outfielders, both Rasmus and Bautista are up on the block. With too many relievers, Janssen, Santos, Delabar, Cecil and Loup are also on the block.

So I'd think the Teams involved might need OF and late inning Relief.

Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz are the only good OF left. Balfour (35), Benoit (36), Rodney (36) and Crain (32) are the best relievers left. Ours are better.

If that's the case A.A. will get one Pitcher at least.

whiterasta80 - Feldman's wife went to high school and college in Houston, and he liked Texas when with the Rangers. I would have even if we had offered 3/33, I doubt he would have taken it.

greenfrog is of course correct re: this team's consistently sloppy play. Though removing JPA and playing Goins or someone else at 2B should be good for a big bite out of the problem, I think the issue goes deeper.

I'd be interested in an Ackley trade, because I'm not seeing fantastic options within the next 3 years otherwise. I think it could work very well.

As for Colon, why the heck not? His numbers are there, it won't be a ton of years, and we're not going to land Tanaka. So fine, give it a go.

But overall, I'm leaning toward SK in NJ - this team will have a difficult time rising above 4th place. Go ahead, begin the season, and you can always make impact trades mid-course. But the foundation just wasn't strong enough, and 2013 failed. That was the window. I do think we're going to need to sell.

Podcasts are available on Podcasts Apps, iTunes and other places I don't know.

I don't think the time to sell is now, but definitely if the Jays are out of it and you can get the kind of young player that would still be with the team conceivably next time they are good, I'd consider trading players like Bautista. But I wouldn't also trade those players for whatever. I don't think the current administration would do that, though.

I definitely don't think that Sierra, Gose, and Pillar are ready for full time roles, so I would be hesitant to trade Rasmus and Bautista until there is more proof of that, or there is another option.

I don't really see Colon as a big improvement, or even a greater certainty, It would really be great if there was the ability to consolidate a few of the extras into one for-sure better pitcher. After signing Cano, I highly doubt that Iwakuma would be available. Their multiple 2b options would be, obviously. While I doubt it happens, Franklin is rumored to be traded for Butler (though I guess DH is the easiest position to replace, I don't think the Royals have the budget). Being much younger, he probably presents the higher upside option. And had really good HR total last year. Ackley has been good by the numbers defensively, and I agree with other posters that he might well benefit from Seitzer's coaching, but right now he and Saunders look to be the top CF candidates. I don't think he's available. Pillar + might get an Ackley, because he would at least be able to platoon with Saunders. One of our out of option depth SP might do the trick, as a bridge to their younger crop of SPs? Currently it looks like Paxton, Walker, Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer are battling for spots 3-5.  There might be a match, but it's tough

katman, how did you link to other posters like that to reply to specific people?

"....Last winter was the right time, just virtually everything that could go wrong did...."

Be careful, John, you'll be accused of "spin"!

After a 71 win 2013 season, Seattle has made a big move in signing Cano. They also have a true Ace in King Felix IMO. I wonder if they are "going for it" or just want to improve attendance.
The Jays improved attendance in 2013 but the "going for it" never appeared in reality.

If Seattle is going for it then more moves have to happen IMO. I would suggest FAs like Tanaka & trades for any available top talent like D Price if available. They will have to give up prospects like the Jays did last year. They also have to hope to get more than the Jays got from guys like JJ & Morrow and also Happ as a #5. Injuries can cost you a season.

I would like to see Seattle have success.

Depending what he is after (and being offered) Colon sure looks ideal at the moment. Been good for the past 2 years, should be able to cover for a year or two and won't get 3 years from anyone.  I'd only offer a 1 + 1 deal or a straight 1 year deal.  $10 mil is the area I'd be at, maybe a bonus for Cy Young votes or something.  He was excellent last year and doesn't walk anyone - despite the PED issues he should be a good guy to have around.

lexomatic  "katman, how did you link to other posters like that to reply to specific people?"

Sort of by accident, I just selected their names, copied and pasted. Seems to go to their profiles. I think I could link to the posts: pick the permalink, copy the URL, then use the toolbar to include it, like this.

As for:

"I don't really see Colon as a big improvement, or even a greater certainty"

...why not? The last 2 years suggests he would be an improvement.

I find I'm starting to have a change of mindset about the 2014 season. I would be OK with the Jays keeping their better prospects and refocusing on continuing to build a strong organization from the ground up (which is not necessarily the same thing as "rebuilding" in the classic sense; for one thing, it doesn't preclude the types of moves the Red Sox made last off-season).

If the team has trusted scouts who think another team is overvaluing one or more of their prospects, and they can add value in return, fine - go for it. Or if they can make a consolidation move, trading surplus "meh" prospects or relievers for a decent player - ditto. But I'm not in favour of a desperate, farm-gutting move to go all in for 2014/15.

With their decent supply of young prospects and a couple of high picks in 2014, the Jays have a chance to learn from past lessons and get back on track sooner rather than later.

I would be OK with the Jays keeping their better prospects and refocusing on continuing to build a strong organization from the ground up (which is not necessarily the same thing as "rebuilding" in the classic sense; for one thing, it doesn't preclude the types of moves the Red Sox made last off-season).

Well I don't think I'm for gutting the minor leagues for 2014.  But I am definitely for concentrating on winning for the next two years as the top priority.  I still think the 2014 Yanks are vulnerable, the Red Sox looked a ton better than they really are in 2014 and that Tampa Bay is not a great team either.  I really believe that the Jays can be the best team in that division with a little more luck and fewer injuries etc ...  Clearly last year was awful.  But so was the Red Sox year in 2012.  You can say that it was sly trades and signings by management that did it but I think the really big factor was actually that everyone just played better.  Let's get another good starter and a fix for 2nd base and let's do it with the idea that our window is now -- not in 3-5 years -- because I think that's actually true.

electric carrot: Well I don't think I'm for gutting the minor leagues for 2014.  But I am definitely for concentrating on winning for the next two years as the top priority.

I believe many ways to stash talents for the minor leagues can keep a healthy minor league and winning for the next two years can be achieved simultaneously. Eugenio Valez
play 2B for Buffalo and eventually ahead in offense stats over Jim Negrych. He was released midway 2013 Buffalo season; per a comment on MLBtraderumor, making a terrible baserunning mistake made Manager Brown upset and may have related to his release.

lexomatic: katman, how did you link to other posters like that to reply to specific people?

I just found that quite useful, just like the at sign for twitter. Maybe the tech guy(s) on this site consider implementing into this site's software the link of the baseball logo as the at sign.

Toronto needs the very best Starter A.A. could acquire. If they run out New Acquisition, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle and someone named who, that might work. A.A. could then deal with any other issues that might be needed.

"I still think the 2014 Yanks are vulnerable, the Red Sox looked a ton better than they really are in 2014 and that Tampa Bay is not a great team either.  I really believe that the Jays can be the best team in that division with a little more luck and fewer injuries etc ...  Clearly last year was awful.  But so was the Red Sox year in 2012.  You can say that it was sly trades and signings by management that did it but I think the really big factor was actually that everyone just played better.  Let's get another good starter and a fix for 2nd base and let's do it with the idea that our window is now -- not in 3-5 years -- because I think that's actually true."

Yeah I agree with all this, I know 2013 left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, but it really was a confluence of a lot of somewhat unlikely things. Somebody said it before about the 2012 Red Sox being actually a good team hiding behind a terrible season, and there's reason to think (hope anyway) the 2013 Jays were the same. Boston in particular had one of those years where everything went right pretty much, up and down their roster players met or exceeded expectations. New York was lucky to win the 85 games they did (they were outscored by more than 20 runs) and even though they've added this off season, losing Granderson, Cano, Pettitte, Rivera and all the other old players aging a year is eroding their talent.  I have not given up on the 2014 Blue Jays by a long shot.

OTOH if things go south again, there will be big changes.

Skimming though information, I just notice Brian Van Kirk was the only FisherCat who walked more than K's as well as maintaining a satisfying .766 OPS in 2013. Age 28-29 in 2014, will he be invited to Spring Training so that he could be the LF/1B guy that the Jays want Sierra to be ? Talking about utilizing human resources......

Did I miss something? Did Bud announce that the league was ceasing to exist in 2 years. What is with the 2 year window. The only way to have a closing window opportunity is to create one,totally trade all your top prospects to any available trade partners. Don't worry about overpaying for FA or in trades with prospects. I get frustrated when I hear every trade rumour or proposal starting with Stroman or Sanchez. It better be for no less than David Price. I am hearing trade runours for middle of the rotation SP for Marcus Stroman. Stroman could be a number 3 by July, I understand that prospect are risky. Numerous non Blue Jays sites project him as a top of the rotation SP. Most of any teams fans over value their prospects, these are not Jays biased analysis. There is probably severalJa ys fan wanting Sanchez/Stroman traded for anybody and in the next breath whine about Syndergaard not being with the Jays.
I also would love for them to be a playoff over the next 2-3 years. A year ago the WS Champs Boston Red Sox were exactly where the Jays are now. Bad season,SP performed poorly, pitchers coming off TJ, and a big off season gone sour. They tweaked their line up by signing a bunch of short term FA. They did not gut thier farm system. They also reversed a lot of their earlier off season acquisitions. Many of their fans probably thought Red Sox were now waving the white flag for the 2013 season. Can you imagine the outrage in Toronto if Buerhle and Reyes were suddenly unloaded.
It does not have to be either or. The Red Sox, Rays,Rangers, and Cardinals are all touted as models of how to win on a consistent basis. I may be wrong but I have never heard fans,media, and their Front Offices talk about a window of opportunity. Absolutely no disrespect to Jose Batista, but the Cardinals were still contenders after Pujols left. Rangers were still right when Josh Hamilton left town.
What I am saying is, trade when if makes sense both now and for the future, it can be done. Cards,Sox and Rangers all have strong farm system along with the parent clubs. It seems to me that when trade with premise that the opportunity is slipping away you will always over pay. Should they tear it all down, no tweak the best you can.
When I hear people say that they need 3 SP, if that is really the case then maybe they should tear it down because then your are not even close. I believe that that is not the case here. They current Jays rotation has many question marks, as did the 2012 Red Sox. Poor years from Lester,Bucholtz and Lackey coming off TJ surgery. If Price is traded then the rest of the American League East SP rotations have about as many questions.

SJE and others: We know the Jays need SP help as the top priority. IMO, Dickey, Buerhle and Morrow are the frontline against other teams.Redmond, Rogers and McGowan are the second line. Happ is bridging and hence expendable. In other words, the Jays should develop more on the 29-30 aged Redmond and Rogers who may be on the verge of breaking out. and try to ease McGowan into a SP role.

A question: McGowan seems to throw fastball, sinker, changeup and slider. Was throwing breaking ball a concern leading to his injury and time on the DL ?

Window of opportunity, in this instance, refer to several things:
1) The contracts of Buehrle, Bautista (option), Dickey (option), Encarnacion (option), Romero (option), Morrow, Izturis (option), Santos (option), Happ and McGowan will be over.
2) Lind and Janssen could be gone this year.
3) Bautista is slipping, getting old ... er.
Window of opportunity means with this current group. It also means at the current $$$$ spent. I suspect contract and arbitration increases are precalculated into the budget last offseason. I think monies have been allotted for two pieces to be added each offseason for 2014 and 2015 seasons.

It's not about who's Front Line and who's Second Line. It about 200 PLUS INNINGS. Dickey and Buehrle can. Which three in-house Pitches will give you 600 MORE? No one can. That's why we need a Starter, the innings. If you're going to get a Starter, you might as well get the best one you can.

As long as the payroll is $140-150 million per year, the window should remain open. Imagine having a strong deep farm system to supplement a $150 million payroll...we shouldn't do anything rash just because Bautista is aging.

I really believe that the Jays can be the best team in that division with a little more luck and fewer injuries etc

You could have said that about every Jays season going back 20 years. You can say this about every team in baseball: If x numbers of things go right, they will win it all. So in the case of that statement you're not really saying anything meaningful.

I see no point in being optimistic with this ownership.

I agree with ayjackson 100 percent. If a window of opportunity exist, then its only self inflicted. Nobody in the Jays Front Office ever stated any thing regarding a closing window. Beeston talk about making the playoffs over a 3 year term. The term "all in" is another phrase created by the media and fans.

I see no point in being optimistics with people who have closed minds. They already have their mind made up and will not change it.

I always thought McGowan had bad luck more than pitching issues. His biggest problem was the Shoulder surgery he had on 26 July 2008. Those are so very hard to come back on. It usually needs 24-30 months to get back to strength. Read his Wikipedia page.

You could have said that about every Jays season going back 20 years. You can say this about every team in baseball: If x numbers of things go right, they will win it all. So in the case of that statement you're not really saying anything meaningful.

"Meaningful" seems like such a high standard!

But in any case, I thought it was pretty clear in context that I didn't mean any amount of luck.  If it wasn't clear, what I meant was that with just an average amount of luck I think the Blue Jays have a good chance of winning that division and hence my pre-occupation with the next two years.  I'm not sure I would have said that about any other Blue Jays team in the last 20 years and I'm very doubtful that I will say that about Blue Jays teams in the medium term.  Just my opinion.  I think this is actually a really good team with a chance to be an excellent team once you fill the big hole at 2nd base and the need for another quality starter.

I think one of the keys will be to stay close to the pack during the first half of the season. To do this the Jays need to be competent at the positions where they were terrible in 2013 (2B, C, LF). I agree that one more good starting pitcher is probably essential.

Of course, health will also be key. In this regard, the turf issue always annoys me to no end. It puts the team at a disadvantage from the outset every year (even if some of the resulting injury issues don't appear until later in the season, or several years into a player's career). Putting together a championship-calibre team is hard enough as it is. Why make harder than it is? (And yes, I know that the Jays intend to upgrade to natural grass eventually.)

Another quality starter. Which quality starters do they have now? I'm prejudiced against poorly-run organizations having winning seasons in any sport, so I doubt this season will be any different than the past 20.

In the second half of 2013, Dickey and Buehrle combined for almost 200 IP with an ERA of about 3.40. That'll play.

The biggest problem the Jays had was bad luck. That much injury time over the last two years is more than not normal, it's unlucky. Eventually their luck will improve to above normal. Right now all I want is an average year.

As everyone was well below average last year, imagine what is possible with an average year from everyone. Playoffs!

Richard S.S. The biggest problem the Jays had was bad luck. That much injury time over the last two years is more than not normal, it's unlucky. Eventually their luck will improve to above normal. Right now all I want is an average year.

With a roster of 25 men, any injury or time-off would derail the team chance each season, regardless of luck. So having injury substitute who can play or more importantly, be qualified to play in MLB is important. The A's seems to be good at this area: picking up Stephen Vogt.

greenfrog: To do this the Jays need to be competent at the positions where they were terrible in 2013 (2B, C, LF).

Here is Vogt's report before his time with the A's and after the 2013 season ends. Maybe trading Kratz for him ? According to the second report, he is most valuable towards RHP. Regardless of Vogt's tenure with the Rays or the A's, Beane's team on decision on getting Vogt for a pitcher speaks clearly of smartness and evaluation on Beane. Maybe Kratz are good enough for the Jays.

Parker: [Kottaras is] Cubs property, not a free agent, and since the Cubs just acquired him it makes no sense that they'd want to trade him.

If Vogt help Derek Norris mature, 26 y. Welington Castillo need a veteran catcher also. Sometimes I do wonder how Kratz help the Jays, although his above average to great defense is often said as a needed commodity to the Jays. Being a MLB veteran catcher, Navarro might not need a veteran catcher to help his maturity. Baptism by fire in MLB game time would actually provide MLB experienced Thole or Kottaras chances to apply their skills. They may as well improve their MLB hitting under coaches in T.O. When one needs regular PAs to apply improved performance, he can be sent to Buffalo to start a few games against MLB veteran pitching and the other called up. In other words, they take turns riding the Jays' bench.

Some suggestions for 2B:

Conner Crumbliss, Oakland AA: sustained very good BB/K, average to above average .AVG, average power, average basestealing (from looking at the stats)
Will Rhymes, Nationals AAA: sustained very good BB/K, below average .AVG, below average power, diminishing basestealing probably due to age (from looking at the stats), can help Toronto right away as a utilityman playing multiple infield positions.

Connor Crumbliss:- I believe that certain teams are good at producing decent/good players at specific positions. Oakland IMO produces middle infielders. So a minor deal to acquire him would please me.