Toronto and Milwaukee are tied for the 10th draft slot.  If Milwaukee wins then the Jays get it no matter what (well, the Jays could climb up to 8th spot potentially due to tie breakers being in their favor except vs Colorado of all the teams the Jays could tie).  The worst case is 11th place (Jays win, Milwaukee loses).  Most likely the Jays will be picking twice in a row with the 11th pick in the draft being a lock right now and either the 10th or 12th also being the Jays pick.  So come on Milwaukee (playing the Mets) - make it so a Jays win is 100% good stuff.

As to wild card... wow.  Cleveland is up by one with Texas and the Rays tied.  If Cleveland loses and the Rays and Rangers win we get chaos.  Cleveland would play Tampa in Cleveland on Monday for the top wild card slot, then the loser plays in Texas for the final wild card.  Then Wednesday the two winners face off to see who plays the Red Sox on Friday (that day off Thursday will be a god send in a worst case situation I'm sure).

A 90 loss season averted! More wins than last year! Success!

Report card appears tomorrow.

So far in the first inning Pat Tabler has told me that Tampa Bay would really help themselves by getting out to a 3 or 4 nothing lead in this game (which they subsequently did) and that 2-out hits will be huge for both teams today, but particularly Tampa Bay.

He is a gibberish machine. Buck is not much better.

Arencibia needs to go 3-3 today to make it back up to the Mendoza Line.

Oops. Not gonna happen. Now he needs to go 4-8.

If .200 BA is the Mendoza line, what's .230 OBP? The Betancourt Line? The Arencibia Line?

What do we think of Redmond? Strike thrower, can miss bats, extreme flyball pitcher by design, homer issues, and with his 80% LOB rate he was overdue for a start like this. I think he should try to sign with the Marlins...

The upside of this Redmond start is that it bumps his ERA into a more appropriate zip code and hopefully allows fans to temper their expectations of him for next year.

I am sticking with my largely subjective position that Rogers and Redmond make for nice Villaneuva-ish pieces, 100-150 inning spot starters. Nice complementary pieces, but not something to build a staff around.

"....Rogers and Redmond make for nice Villaneuva-ish pieces, 100-150 inning spot starters. Nice complementary pieces, but not something to build a staff around...."

I agree that this is the most likely scenario, but let's allow for the possibility of some spring-training competition. Anthopoulos is making it clear that he plans to acquire another starter (or two) in the off-season. If Morrow can recover his health (not guaranteed, but possible), the rotation looks like this: Morrow/Dickey/Buehrle/new-guy/Happ (but with plenty of potential for competition for the 5th spot from the likes of Drabek, Rogers, Stroman, Nolin, Hutchison, Redmond and others). What the Jays really need is for one of these 6th-starter guys to jump forward and seize a rotation job convincingly and not let go. Seems to happen on other teams, why not with the Jays for once? Incidentally, based on the limited evidence of the past 3 starts, it might be Happ who does exactly that.

Cleveland managed to acquire the players who have become their starting catcher and third baseman in a crucial game for a pinch runner.

Not bad.

Probably unanswerable without hours and hours of tedious research, but how many times, I wonder, has a pitcher pinch-run on a team with an expanded roster?

Well, the Twins have come out to play today. They scored a run. Good for them. Clearly not fans of chaos.

Barring a miracle of Hestonian proportions, the Twins will close out their season (sans Mauer, sans Morneau) going 3-16. For their effort again the Indians we'll give them a participant's badge, but not much more.

Meanwhile in Houston, in front of probably close to zero people, the game situation does not (and presumably will not) allow for Mariano Rivera to close out his career with an inning in center field, as had been rumoured earlier in the week.

Having been hurt once, in recent memory, shagging flies, probably best that he stays anchored to his bullpen seat.

"....Cleveland managed to acquire the players who have become their starting catcher and third baseman in a crucial game for a pinch runner...."

Another way of looking at that trade: The Jays managed to acquire a pitcher who gave them the 3rd-highest innings total in their rotation, in exchange for two hitters whom nobody (not even on Batters Box) expected to be starters in any lineup this year. Not bad.

Cleveland wins. No chaos.

If Texas wins, they host TB tomorrow and the winner plays in Cleveland on Tuesday (Cleveland's best case scenario coming into today). If Texas loses, Cleveland host Tampa Bay tomorrow.

Looks like Jays get protected picks 9 and 11 next year if Phillies can't come back late and win. I believe from today's presser AA mentioned they will try to be active on the free agent pitching market, so today's loss might spur them on to be Team Dominica North or something like that.....

Is 11 protected, though? I thought the rule was that the highest available pick outside the top 10 would be given as compensation for signing a qualified free agent.

Is 11 protected, though? I thought the rule was that the highest available pick outside the top 10 would be given as compensation for signing a qualified free agent.

Source on that?

#11 is protected because it is a comp pick.

So once Texas makes this official, we'll have Tampa @ Texas tomorrow to decide the 2nd AL wildcard, then the NL wildcard game (Cin @ Pittsburgh) Tuesday, and the AL wildcard game (Tampa/Texas @ Cleveland) on Wednesday.  Pretty cool.  Three straigh sudden death thingies.

Nice ending to the season.  The club played hard and got its share of wins against tough opposition in the midst of a playoff race, while missing arguably their best 3 players.  Anthopoulos must get over his "bullpen fetish" this off-season.  He has precisely one source of depth on the club and that is in the pen.  Do you want Casey Janssen?  What are you prepared to offer?  Brett Cecil? Same question.  Sergio Santos?  Ditto.  Jeremy Jeffress.  Again.  Steve Delabar.  I'm listening.  Dustin McGowan.  And?  Aaron Loup? Maybe.

If the bullpen at the beginning of 2014 is (say) Santos, Cecil, Jeffress, Loup, Rogers and Nolin, I will be completely OK with it.

Can we please agree that the Rogers trade did not turn out well and a failure in scouting played a role?  The one thing that a club must do is know its own players. The word in the organization was that Yan Gomes was not a catcher.  During his time in the major leagues in 2012, he caught 4 times and no baserunners attempted to steal;  fans had no idea that he was a capable defensive catcher but the club ought to have known.  We now know that he is far better at it than the incumbent.  It did not take a rocket scientist to figure out that he was a good bet to hit as well or better than the incumbent. 

"....It did not take a rocket scientist to figure out that he was a good bet to hit as well or better than the incumbent...."

Come on, let's be fair: none of the rocket scientists, in Toronto or elsewhere, on this website or anywhere else, had ever expected Gomes to hit better than Arencibia at any point in his career. Just as one tiny example: Gomes never ranked as a top-20 prospect on any of the Batters Box annual rankings of Jays prospects. Let's admit it: NOBODY expected him to hit as well as he did this season.

Darren Oliver's statistics were flashed briefly on the tv today and I thought I was seeing things, so I subsequently looked them up. Right-handed batters hit .217 with a .636 OPS against him while left-handed batters hit .324 with a .932 OPS. Shouldn't it be the other way around usually ? I know the pitcher-preferred lefty on lefty and righty on righty matchup sometimes works in the batter's favour depending on the way the pitches move, but what specifically is the case with Oliver this year and is this typical of his career ?

Let me amend my previous post: it wasn't just the top-20 prospect lists, it was also the top-30 lists that Yan Gomes failed to make. He was never seen as a prospect. I've just reviewed the entire 108-post thread from the day when Gomes was traded. Nobody here said, "this is a terrible trade, because Gomes will hit better than Arencibia in 2013." In fact, I could only find one person on that thread (Dan Gordon, to his credit) who even expressed the viewpoint that Gomes had a decent chance at a major-league career. Everyone else seemed to accept the consensus that he was, at best, a "spare part" and maybe eventually a potential back-up in the majors.

To be clear about my own viewpoint: obviously the decision to trade Yan Gomes was, with the benefit of hindsight, a bad decision. But every year, in all of the hundreds of players who are traded, there are always one or two players who shock everyone by performing far better than expected. That's the lottery of baseball. It happens. No point in condemning an organization for failing to predict the unpredictable.

What we might fairly say is that a very astute scout, bucking the conventional wisdom and all the prospect rankings, might have seen the potential in Gomes and might have persuaded the Jays to keep him, and the Jays unfortunately did not have a scout as astute as that. I wish they did. If someone wants to suggest that the Indians have smarter scouts than the Jays, I would admit that the Gomes trade could be evidence for that proposition. But I don't think it's fair to say that any reasonable person should have known that Gomes was likely to hit better than JPA in 2013.

Article XX.B.(4).(c).i.

"A Club that signs one Qualified Free Agent who is subject to compensation shall forfeit its highest available selection in the next Rule 4 Draft. A Club that signs more than one Qualified Free Agent subject to compensation shall forfeit its highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft for each additional Qualified Free Agent it signs. Notwithstanding the above, a Club shall not be required to forfeit a selection in the top ten of the first round of the Rule 4 Draft, and its highest available selection shall be deemed its first selection following the tenth selection of the first round."

but what specifically is the case with Oliver this year and is this typical of his career ?

For his career, Oliver's splits are flat flat flat.
vs RHB: 277/346/433
vs LHB: 273/342/430

I'd chalk this year up to just a fluke of sample sizes. He only faced 78 LHB. Hey, for a while this year it even looked like Lind had learned how to hit LHP.

obviously the decision to trade Yan Gomes was, with the benefit of hindsight, a bad decision.

I suppose it could also be mentioned that when Gomes was traded, Travis d'Arnaud was still a Blue Jay. Hell, Jeff Mathis was still a Blue Jay.

I remembered liking Yan Gomes a lot after seeing him in Vegas last summer, so I went to check what I wrote.

"5. I really like Yan Gomes. He doesn't have any tools that jump off the chart other than maybe a strong throwing arm, but he appears to be a comfortable receiver and had good ABs all night. He's really put himself on the map over the last calendar year and will allow the Jays to go as slow as they want with d'Arnaud and to not hesitate about trading Arencibia because there's depth at the C position. Gomes' versatility should go a long way in helping him carve out an MLB career."

After Colorado's 2-1 win over Los Angeles, Toronto is now in a four-way tie for three protected draft picks 8, 9 and 10 with the unlucky team getting # 12. How does 8, 9, 10 and 12 get determined?

Esmil Rogers for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes, who won? I think Toronto did, although I didn't understand the deal originally.

I don't understand the make-up of some Posters, their favorite players are always the ones traded to other teams.

After Colorado's 2-1 win over Los Angeles, Toronto is now in a four-way tie for three protected draft picks 8, 9 and 10 with the unlucky team getting # 12. How does 8, 9, 10 and 12 get determined?

It goes by last year's record.  Since we had a worse record last year, we pick above the Mets and Brewers, but below the Rockies (who were worse last season).


1. Astros 51-111
2. Marlins 62-100
3. White Sox 63-99
4. Cubs 66-96
5. Twins 66-96
6. Mariners 71-91
7. Phillies 73-89
8. Rockies 74-88
9. Blue Jays 74-88
10. Mets 74-88
11. Brewers 74-88

Esmil Rogers for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes, who won?

It's too soon to tell. In 2013, Cleveland won, by a mile. Gomes was by far the best player of the three, and Cleveland made it into the post-season by a margin of one game. But there's a lot of time to see how it plays out in the long run. If Gomes turns back into a pumpkin, and Rogers turns into a useful pitcher - which he isn't yet, not really - it could become a good deal for the Jays. But right now, advantage Cleveland. Not even close.

Thanks,Chuck,for the reply on Oliver - this year was just an anomaly for him I guess. My two cents on the Yan Gomes trade is that all trades are judged easier in hindsight, and sometimes that hindsight is several years down the road. I think what sticks in everyone's craw is that Gomes would have been an improvement over what we had at catcher , but again, it only amounts to " what if ". What if AA had done nothing last winter but sign a couple of cheaper free agent pitchers ? We might not have been any worse, or even a little better, and still had those good young prospects. What if AA could do the Miami trade over again with hindsight ? Would he just give the Marlins what they wanted for Reyes , or would he skip it altogether ? I'm sure there had to be a Texas Ranger fan blog somewhere this summer where people were saying, " Why the heck did we trade Chris Davis ? What if we hadn't "? The point is that it is every team's management's job to improve that team, and that often requires trades. Some traded players turn into stars and some just fail and disappear, but at least it gives us something to talk about!

As to the 11th pick, everything I've read says it is protected because it is compensation for not signing the pick from last year.  Seems that is a loophole in the lost pick due to signing a free agent rule.  MLB trade rumors confirms it btw. Of course, if the Jays do sign a top free agent they would then lose their 2nd round pick which is a high pick in the 2nd round. Still a 60th overall pick (roughly where it would be) is far less valuable than a 12th overall. 
12th overall pick: 6 guys with 20+ WAR (star quality) 63% reaching majors, 9.5 avg WAR per player reaching.
60th overall pick: 2 guys with 20+ WAR, 38% reached majors, 6.8 WAR per player reaching.

Yeah, no question that is a lot better odds of getting a top player (3 times as good odds) or of just getting a guy up here.  Btw, that is 2 of 49 with none reaching since the 2005 draft.  Remove those 8 and you have 2 of 41 or 5% star quality odds vs a 15% shot if you ignore all since 2005 for 12th overall pick (4 guys have made it post 2005).

As to the 9th pick (which the Jays now have) that has 6 with 20+, 59% reaching, 8.9 WAR on average - actually a bit worse than the 12th overall pick strangely enough. 

Not an anomaly for Oliver. He had similar results in 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

I'd guess he's not consistent with the slider.

Seems that is a loophole in the lost pick due to signing a free agent rule.  MLB trade rumors
confirms it btw. Of course, if the Jays do sign a top free agent they would then lose their 2nd round pick which is a high pick in the 2nd round.

This was my interpretation as well. Last season the Pirates got a protected compensation choice for not signing Mark Appel in the 2012 draft. I think the value of the # 9 and # 11 choice is partially in the value of money you get to spend.

But I don't think it's fair to say that any reasonable person should have known that Gomes was likely to hit better than JPA in 2013.

Ironically JPA and Gomes go way back to their days at Tennessee when Gomes was Arencibia's caddy on the college baseball team

He has precisely one source of depth on the club and that is in the pen.  Do you want Casey Janssen?  What are you prepared to offer?  Brett Cecil? Same question.  Sergio Santos?  Ditto.  Jeremy Jeffress.  Again.  Steve Delabar.  I'm listening.  Dustin McGowan.  And?  Aaron Loup? Maybe.

Well hopefully AA can change water into wine. Unfortunately today's modern G.M. seems to view relief pitchers as being a somewhat fungible asset. Essentially the only noteworthy trade of a reliever last off-season was the Joel Hanrahan Red Sox / Pirate exchange. Perhaps though AA can still find a good fit.

Haven't seen it mentioned here: Henderson Alvarez threw a no-hitter for the Marlins today..

i always liked Gomes as a prospect, and said so, many times on the site.  If you looked at his numbers on a per AB basis, and compared his success at various levels compared to his age, he looked like a pretty darned good hitter, especially for a catcher.  I was surprised that more people didn't see it.  I didn't like it when they traded him, and I like it even less now.  Of course, I also liked Mike McDade as a prospect, and didn't like losing him.

I think the success or failure of this coming offseason will be based on what they can do with the starting pitching.  You can't keep being 28th, 29th or whatever in team starter ERA and have any hope of success.  In their defense, injuries have been a huge problem, but that's a whole new topic.  If they go into next year with Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, a half decent acquisition, and a free for all among the Redmonds and Happs and Drabeks and Rogers et al of the organization for the 5th spot, I will be very disappointed.  They need to do something significant.  One guy I would like to see get a real shot is McGowan.  He still has tremendous stuff, pitched very well this year, and maybe they can get 175 or so innings out of him. 

"....If Gomes turns back into a pumpkin, and Rogers turns into a useful pitcher - which he isn't yet, not really..."

Rather harsh, Magpie. At a minimum, Rogers is a Villanueva, which was very useful for the Jays in 2011-12. His numbers look mediocre because of several terrible outings, but Rogers did win a few games for the Jays this year, he pitched very well at times, and he ate up a lot of innings which would otherwise have gone to worse pitchers, or perhaps would have destroyed some prospects. And just because he wasn't needed in the bullpen in 2013 doesn't mean that he isn't useful as a reliever as well.

One further thought on Yan Gomes:
For someone who once had a reputation for "hoarding prospects," Anthopoulos has traded away a huge number of young prospects in the past three years. Sometimes it's a successful strategy, but it's also highly risky, and it can come back to bite him in the rear. Even though he was right to give up on many of those highly-touted prospects (Snider, Thames, Zach Stewart, Rzepczynski, Nestor Molina, Brett Wallace), it's also true that he's given up some very good prospects who could be elite in the future (Syndergaard, d'Arnaud, Gomes, Alvarez, Marisnick, Wojciechowski).

So the real question, in my view, is whether Anthopoulos should have held onto those prospects and been more patient in his rebuild. Instead of waiting, he opted for a "go big" season in 2013, and obviously it failed in 2013 (although it did pay off at the box office, which is not an insignificant factor to consider). I'd argue that we can't really judge the strategy until the end of 2014 at the earliest. The Jays gave up a lot of prospects, but here's who they have in return: Rasmus, Dickey, Reyes, Buehrle, Santos, Delabar, Gose, Rogers, Happ and others. If that core helps the Jays to contention in 2014, the loss of the prospects is still defensible.

In the good-news department: Jeff Blair reports today that there's a "good chance" that the Jays payroll could increase by $20-million in 2014.

For those who have monitored the Jays payroll and the expected commitments for 2014 (assuming arbitration raises and Lind's likely return): how far would an extra $20-million go? Would it allow the Jays to spend $15-million on a starting pitcher in the free-agent market?

Checking Cot's I see the Jays with just shy of $119 mil this year (including money Miami gave them) and $110 committed for 2014 which goes up to barely under $120 mil when you add in the 3 options (Lind, Janssen & DeRosa) while removing their buyouts.  That leaves arbitration hearings for Rasmus (very expensive as it is his final year of it), Cecil/Rogers/JPA (first year of it, so not too bad).  That should eat at least $10 million.  Guys like Lawrie, Delabar, Loup are pre-arbitration thus near the minimum but still it does add up and pushes the payroll closer to $135 million when you add in all the minimum players I suspect.  That leaves $5 million of 'new money' if they increase the payroll while cutting Johnson & Oliver.  So basically you have the same team but without a guy who they were counting on in the rotation in 2013 and without a guy who was expected to be a key in the bullpen plus without Bonifacio.

Hopefully the Jays have either more cash than they are claiming or AA has a few trades to clear out salary on his list.  Sadly the biggest salaries are also least likely to be traded.
$15 mil +: Buehrle, Reyes
$10-15: Bautista, Dickey (maybe Rasmus)
$5-10: Cabrera, Encarnacion, Morrow, Romero, Lind, Happ
$1-5: Izturis, Santos, Janssen, McGowan, Thole (likely Cecil, Rogers, JPA as well)

Candidate for extension....
Free agents post 2013: Johnson, Oliver, Ortiz - not likely for any
Free agents post 2014: Cabrera, Rasmus, Janssen, DeRosa - Rasmus a strong candidate
Free agents post 2015: Buehrle, Morrow, Happ, McGowan

Rasmus is the only one who jumps out to me as a candidate for an extension.  Janssen maybe but don't see the Jays rushing into that with the number of options available. McGowan, Happ and Morrow could all be free agents a year earlier if the Jays don't pick up options but regardless the Jays are committed (using buyouts for those 3) to $91 million in 2015 before dropping drastically in 2016/7 (basically just Reyes plus buyouts or option years for a batch of others).

So, who do you dump, who do you extend?  For how much if you extend?  Rasmus is a tough one as which one will show up in 2014 and beyond?  Who can you trade that will open up serious space for other players to be added?  Happ, Lind and Morrow are the only ones that could clear any real space that might (maybe) be tradeable (ie: someone else might want them at their current prices) but odds are if any are traded the Jays would need to take salary back.  Others (Romero, Cabrera, Izturis) are dead money (no one in their right mind would take them on for more than the minimum at this point), virtually untradable (Buehrle & Reyes due to contract, Dickey, Bautista, Encarnacion are all good value for the dollar) or good values you don't want to dump (Santos, Janssen, McGowan) and Thole (not too much but also not too valuable).

I would not be shocked to see Rasmus either extended or traded.  Depends what he demands for an extension.  He has value, he also has just a one year $ risk.  The pen guys all have value in trades but not amazingly so.  So unless the Jays are willing to trade Bautista or Encarnacion (unlikely) the best trade chip is probably Rasmus.

"For those who have monitored the Jays payroll and the expected commitments for 2014 (assuming arbitration raises and Lind's likely return): how far would an extra $20-million go? Would it allow the Jays to spend $15-million on a starting pitcher in the free-agent market?"

Does Blair think Rogers will spend 20m more, or will payroll go up by that much? The latter is an expenditure increase closer to 30m, which might allow them to be active on the FA market in some capacity. Otherwise? Nope. It's 135m just to bring back this roster without Oliver & Johnson (but including Rajai).

OK.  I'll spell it out about Gomes vs. Arencibia at the start of the season as hitters only.  During the previous two years, Arencibia had hit .225/.280/.435 (wOBA .311 and .304).  The offensive projections for Gomes at the start of the season are here. Higher OBP, lower slugging percentage (wOBA .307, .303 and .287- the last one is ZIPS). I may have slightly overstated the case; I was not surprised at all that Arencibia regressed although the extent of it did surprise me. 

If one knew that Gomes was at least an average defensive catcher, he would be clearly the better bet at the outset of the season.  

Davidi on his twitter is reporting as he understands it, pick # 11 is protected. It would be good though , if one reporter would ask for actual clarification.

SMCS. You want the next section. John Northey explained this in an earlier post.

Article XX.B.(4).(c).ii.

"ii. A Club’s highest available selection in the next Rule 4
Draft shall be determined after accounting for any selections the Club forfeited for exceeding its Signing Bonus Pool in the Rule 4 Draft. With the exception of draft selections awarded to a Club pursuant to Major League Rule 4(c)(2), all of a Club’s draft selections will be subject to forfeiture pursuant to subsection 4(c)(i)above, including draft selections obtained through assignments,
draft selections obtained in the Competitive Balance Lotteries and Forfeited Draft Pick Lotteries, and draft selections awarded as compensation pursuant to subsection 4(b) above."

Under the old Business Rules of Baseball (the rules that contain "Rule 4" -- as in the Rule Four Draft), Rule 4(c)(2), which is excepted from forteiture, deals with supplemental picks like the ones the Jays will receive for failing to sign Bickford.

Unfortunately, the revised version of the Rules is not available anywhere, but I think we can assume that the new version of Rule 4(c)(2) also deals with supplemental picks. If anyone has a clue where to find a copy of the baseball business rules (not the new CBA) I would be enormously grateful. It would also enable many of to comment more usefully on things like draft stategy and whatnot.

Essentially the only noteworthy trade of a reliever last off-season was the Joel Hanrahan Red Sox / Pirate exchange. Perhaps though AA can still find a good fit.

Esmil Rogers for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles worked out pretty well for the Indians. :)

Mike, I think you're weakening your own argument by citing the ZIPS projections for Gomes. ZIPS predicted he would post an OPS of .650. In reality, his OPS this season was .826 which is much much higher than anyone predicted. So ZIPS, like everyone else, got it very wrong.

Nope.  The consensus of the projections was that Gomes would hit a little worse than Arencibia did the past two years.  It's not exactly what I said; all you had to believe was that Gomes was a mite better than his projections (as I did) and Arencibia was a mite worse than his 2011-12 performance to come to the conclusion that Gomes would be as good or better offensively than Arencibia.  What I had no idea about was that Gomes would be miles better defensively.

An update on notable (to me) recently former Jays:

Did good
Jason Frasor: Consistently good throughout the year: against LH/RH (LHB = 433 OPS in 73 PA / RHB = 694 OPS in 123 PA), at home/away (home = 517 OPS / away = 674 OPS in roughly same games/PA), 1H/2H (665 / 509), was better with 3+ days rest (~500 OPS) than less (but still good: 0 days = 628 / 1 day = 598 / 2 days = 667).  Asked to pitch in both low- and high-leverage situations (27/25; 7 medium leverage).  Made 1.5M and delivered 1.2 bWAR.  RPs are erratic and mostly unpredictable, fungible "assets", but Frasor is as reliable as gets.

Yan Gomes: 133 OPS+ in 322 PA, strong defensive metrics (20 CS in 49 attempts = 41% and 18 CS were his; 1.9 bdWAR), 4.0 bWAR.  Not sure on his game-calling, pitcher-handling, pitch-framing, and other harder-to-quantify stuff, but he made a good combo with Carlos Santana for a playoff team (CERA: Yan = 3.59 / Carlos = 4.08).  Could he have helped the Jays in 2013?  Probably.  Would it have made a difference to the number of playoff games for the 2013 bluebirds?  Probably not.

Henderson Alvarez: Missed half the season, and wasn't that good in August, but overall, very good NL starting pitcher for a bad team. Really improved his HR rate (0.2 HR/9 vs. 1.1/1.4 in prior 2 seasons, but maybe got lucky: 1.5% HR/FB this year vs. 10-11% in prior years; MLB average is 8%). Can hit a bit too (In 25 PA, 300/290/500, with 3 2B and a HR).  Interestingly, the Jeff Mathis effect is inverse for the former Jays duo (9 caught by Jeff led to a 4.47 ERA and 110 sOPS+ / 8 games with 2 others for roughly 2.80 ERA and 75 sOPS+).  A CG SO no-hitter doesn't look bad on the resume either.

Yunel Escobar: 97 OPS+, top ("gold-glove calibre") defence, 3.2 bWAR, 5M salary.  I stand by my opinion: Very valuable baseball player for almost any team, but would have been very wrong representative of the Jays organization because of what he did.

Did ok
Carlos Villanueva: Performed as well as a swing-pitcher for the Cubs as he did for the Jays, with similar splits/streakiness.  Had a great start (April) and end (September) to the season, and a bit up-and-down in the middle, with being better in relief than starting.  Useful player, but can use 5M per year in 2013/2014 better.

Kelly Johnson: Versatile, cost-effective piece for the right team, which happened to the Rays. But didn't put up good offensive numbers, and at best average in LF/2B.  If he didn't put up some stats at 2B, his 235/305/410 for 99 OPS+ wasn't hugely (but still materially) better than an obviously hampered Melky (279/332/360 for 88 OPS+), for ~3x less the price tag.

Mike Aviles: 84 OPS+ playing mostly an average 3B/SS and a little 2B/LF.  Good bench player, and probably would have been better for the 2013 Jays than the Bonifacio/Kawasaki/DeRosa/Izturis/Goins revolving fill-in infielders.  Wonder how well he plays on turf...

Emilio Bonifacio:  Proof that we don't know nothing about nothing in this game of baseball.

Stunk in ML
Brandon Lyon: Sucked, DFAed by a bad team.
Jeff Mathis: 181/251/284 for 48 OPS+ in 256 PA, ouch.  Glad for him that he has such a positive defensive reputation (1.0 bdWAR though).  Still, better than Thole (38 OPS+).
Adeiny Hechavarria: 227/267/298 for 56 OPS+ in 578 PA, ouch.  Glad for him that he has such a positive defensive reputation (0.4 bdWAR though).
John Buck: Hot start, regressed to 219/285/362 for 84 OPS+, so basically a typical year for him.  Going to the playoffs though, and still better than J.P. (and obviously Thole.)
Travis d'Arnaud: Can't hit in the majors (yet) with 58 OPS+ in 112 PA.  So far seems ok behind the plate.  J.P. was barely better with the bat (59 OPS+).  Still, better than Thole.
Casper Wells: 1 IP of scoreless relief in his pitching debut for SEA, but then gives up 5 ER in 0.2 IP for PHI.  Man, talk about fungible relievers.
Henry Blanco: GS in SEA debut, but ends up hitting even worse for them than he did in TO (31 OPS + vs. 45 OPS+).  And I am proud to say for once actually, at least he's (barely) WORSE than Thole (35 OPS+ vs. 38 OPS+).

AAA material
Scott Richmond, Aaron Laffey, Eli Whiteside, Bobby Wilson

Special mentions
Sam Dyson: Pretty good in AA/AAA as a starter, got called up and hit hard in 2 of 5 relief appearances.
Jake Marisnick: Clearly wasn't ready for the major league pitching (32 OPS+), but obviously has a glove (0.7 bdWAR in 32 games, of which, 30 starts).

The thing I find particularly troubling about Gomes is that the Jays didn't seem to think he could catch in the major leagues. They preferred to play Gomes at first and third while alternating between JPA's bat and Mathis' glove behind the plate.

Of course, Gomes may not be successful in the future. But the Jays didn't have a single catcher who could hit .200 this year, so that's pretty bad.

On another note, today's Globe and Mail had an obit on Marcella Hazan, the Italian cookbook author (whose book taught me how to make a proper ragu).  She apparently learned English by watching Brooklyn Dodger games on television in the 50s.  There's a right way to do everything!

Gomes, JPA & Mathis. For team harmony reasons IMO managers play veterans & favorites (high Draft picks & players acquired in trades) more than possibly the best player they have. Assuming that they can tell who is better when choosing between 2 players.
Actually I do not know how true this is. A successful Dave Collins over a very young George Bell, B Cox may have been the manager.
D Oliver, B Cecil & A Loup all LH relievers. There were enough opportunities for all of then courtesy of the SP rotation. But what if we had a strong rotation?

JP Arencibia just announced he is engaged to a country singer from the Band Perry.

The final line of the story reads:

The couple say they plan to get married next summer. Perry’s entire family approves of the Miami native.

 

So it looks like JPA plans on being free next summer, I think that can be arranged.

And in other Blue Jay news it looks like the Jays will leave Dunedin after 2016 or 2017 to join with the Astros in a new facility on the ocean side of Florida, near Palm Beach Gardens.

Yeah, that is kind of weird for a ML ballplayer to plan a wedding in summer.  Even if it is during the All-Star Game (as odds of JPA being there are near 0%) that is making for a major distraction during the season.

Still, congrats to JPA. 

It sounds like the bride might be fairly traditional.  If so, the groom might just play a supporting role in the whole affair, in which case the distraction might be modest.  I guess a supporting role for a backup catcher is just about right....
Not that I am bitter or anything.

Congrats to the couple.

And in other Blue Jay news it looks like the Jays will leave Dunedin after 2016 or 2017 to join with the Astros in a new facility on the ocean side of Florida, near Palm Beach Gardens.

I was initially sad when I read about this. In the too many years since I started attending spring training in Florida, numerous teams have moved on, many of them from the I4 corridor that the Astros inhabit. The Tampa area will be down to the Phils and Yanks, with the Tigers not too far, and hopefully someone will stay in Sarasota. The Pirates seem solid in Bradenton, but who knows?

I'm not sure I buy into the theory of the move, at least the most often read ones. I don't think Canadians are more likely to travel farther to the south east coast just because Dunedin is 'sleepy', and I don't think the locals are necessarily more likely to buy Jays tickets. I do understand wanting to have the minor league complex on site rather than on Solon.

And I note that one of the beaches nearby is named Juno, so maybe this really is where a Canadian-based team should play.

Ughhhhh. I thought that was going to at least be a good game, you know with the Reds putting up a fight or something. Blech.

My new favourite playoff team is whoever beats Boston.