For fun, we all think about how "if only the Jays had player xyz" so lets have some fun.
If the Jays had somehow pulled Mariano Rivera from the Yankees way back when and used him as the closer what difference would've it made? Remember, this is the only guy to get into the HOF with a 100% vote total so it should be a big difference.
First Mariano Rivera's stats as a closer (Skipping his rookie year as a starter and his first year in the pen as a setup man)...
2.02 ERA (221 ERA+), 647 saves 1109 IP 1.8 BB/9 8.1 K/9 0.5 HR/9 6.9 H/9 2.71 FIP 69-54 W/L record, plus that insane playoff stuff (8-1 0.70 ERA in 141 IP 5.5 H/9 1.3 BB/9 7.0 K/9)
Average Year: 38 saves in 65 IP
Cost: $169,441,825 over 17 years or $9.97 mil a year
Jays closers (measured as the guy who saved the most games)...
| Year | Name | Salary | Saves | IP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | Kelvim Escobar | $150,000 | 14 | 31 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 10.5 |
| 1998 | Randy Myers | $4,416,667 | 28 | 42.3 | 0.9 | 4 | 6.8 |
| 1999 | Billy Koch | $200,000 | 31 | 63.7 | 0.7 | 4.2 | 8.1 |
| 2000 | Billy Koch | $333,333 | 33 | 78.7 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 6.9 |
| 2001 | Billy Koch | $733,333 | 36 | 69.3 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 7.1 |
| 2002 | Kelvim Escobar | $2,300,000 | 38 | 78 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 9.8 |
| 2003 | Aquilino Lopez |
$300,000 | 14 | 73.7 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 7.8 |
| 2004 | Jason Frasor | $330,000 | 17 | 68.3 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 7.1 |
| 2005 | Miguel Batista | $4,750,000 | 31 | 74.7 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 6.5 |
| 2006 | B.J. Ryan | $4,000,000 | 38 | 72.3 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 10.7 |
| 2007 | Jeremy Accardo | $392,200 | 30 | 67.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 7.6 |
| 2008 | B.J. Ryan | $12,000,000 | 32 | 58 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 9 |
| 2009 | Jason Frasor | $1,450,000 | 11 | 57.7 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 8.7 |
| 2010 | Kevin Gregg | $2,000,000 | 37 | 59 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 8.8 |
| 2011 | Frank Francisco | $4,000,000 | 17 | 50.7 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 9.4 |
| 2012 | Casey Janssen | $2,000,000 | 22 | 63.7 | 1 | 1.6 | 9.5 |
| 2013 | Casey Janssen | $3,900,000 | 33 | 51.7 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 8.5 |
| Totals | $43,255,533 | 462 | 1,060 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 8.3 | |
| Per Year | $2,703,471 | 29 | 66.3 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 8.3 | |
Interesting. One more thing to add is how much the Jays blew on BJ Ryan so he could be the teams closer twice in 5 years - $47 million. Ugh. I know we'd all like to forget that mess.
So the Jays spent $7.2 million a year less on average for their closer (not factoring in all of BJ Ryan) than the Yankees for 9 fewer saves a year out of the closer slot. Of course, if the Jays had Rivera BJ Ryan never would've been signed nor would've Randy Myers, while most of those other guys would've been setup men thus making the entire staff stronger. Still, $7.2 million seems like a lot of money for 9 saves. But if that was 9 more wins (doubtful, but possible if you factor in improved pen strength overall) what would that have meant? I'll just use 9 extra wins each year rather than try to get into the minutia of it. This is just for fun, not to get a Phd after all.
- 1997: 76 wins in real life - 85 with Rivera, 22 games out vs 13.
- 1998: 88 vs 97, 26 games out vs 17, wild card lost by 4 vs win it by 5 PLAYOFFS!!!
- 1999: 84 vs 93, 14 vs 5 games out, 1 game out of WC (ouch)
- 2000: 83 vs 92, 4.5 out vs 4.5 ahead - PLAYOFFS!!!
- 2001: 80 vs 89, 16 vs 7 out, even further from WC (102 wins for that this season)
- 2002: 78 vs 87, 25.5 vs 16.5 - note: Rivera's only sub 30 save year (when healthy and closing)
- 2003: 86 vs 95, 15 vs 6 out, would've tied for WC with Boston thus at least 1 one game PLAYOFF
- 2004: 67 vs 76, 33.5 vs 24.5 - yeah, nothing would save that craptastic year.
- 2005: 80 vs 89, 15 vs 6, WC tied with division leader
- 2006: 87 vs 96, 10 vs 1 game out, 1 game ahead for WC PLAYOFFS!!!
- 2007: 83 vs 92, 13 vs 4, would've been 2 out of WC
- 2008: 86 vs 95, 11 vs 2, tied for WC with Boston thus at least 1 one game PLAYOFF
- 2009: 75 vs 84, 28 vs 19
- 2010: 85 vs 94, 11 vs 2, 1 out of WC (ouch)
- 2011: 81 vs 90, 16 vs 7, 1 out of WC
- 2012: 73 vs 82, 22 vs 13 (first year with 2 WC, Jays still far back) - note: this was the year Rivera was hurt (just 9 games)
- 2013: 74 vs 83, 23 vs 14
So even if you figure every extra save was a bonus win (big assumption) and make it even every year when we know some years would've been bigger than others. We still only get 1 division title and 2 WC appearances, plus 2 one game sudden death games. Would've made those lean years a LOT better. Of course, you also should factor in that the Yankees would've been worse those years and most of them the Yankees were one of the teams ahead of the Jays.
In the winter of 96/97 the Jays sent 6 top prospects to the Pirates for Carlos Garcia, Orlando Merced and Dan Plesac Wonder if that would've been enough to con the Yankees out of their setup man? Nah. I doubt it. The only real shot would've been to sign him as an amatuer free agent in 1990 (he was 20 then - odd for a talented kid in Panama to take that long to be signed, I'm sure there is a story there) or while George Steinbrenner was still running the show thus would force the GM to trade any prospect for a solid ML'er. Kind of surprised Pat Gillick didn't notice him all things considered. Ah, if only. Then the late 90's and 00's would've been much better and odds are Halladay would've spent his whole career here.
