Has anyone figured out yet why AA guaranteed JA Happ 5.4m in 2014? Did he really think there was a chance Happ pitched like a stud this year and that the 6.7m 2015 option would have a ton of value? That seems like an awfully big risk for a very unlikely outcome. I hope Happ finishes up his season well in case there are some scouts watching, because it would be nice to have that cash to spend on higher end talent instead of a back of the rotation starter who cost a whack of prospects to acquire. It might make sense for an NL team in a pitcher-friendly park that is looking for some innings to pick Happ up.

I have a question that I don't have time to find the answer to, but maybe it would be of interest to someone here.

The Jays have numerous starting candidates for next season.  Let's assume that RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Brandon Morrow are locks, if they are healthy.  Let's also assume that Sean Nolin, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison will be in the minors.

That leaves JA Happ, Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Kyle Drabek, Ricky Romero, Dustin McGowan (if converted) and Josh Johnson (if re-signed).  That could be 8 pitchers vying for 2 spots.  How many of those 8 could be optioned to the minor leagues as backup for the major league club?

Other than Romero, and maybe Johnson, the other six would likely be claimed if they have to be optioned down.  The Jays problem appears to be a surplus of #5 starters.

There is no way that Ricky Romero ought to be in the starting rotation to begin 2014.  A pitcher who struggles in triple A after struggling in the majors ought to at least be given 10-15 starts in triple A to attempt to establish readiness. 

Right now, they have Dickey and Buehrle and a clutch of others.  Morrow is definitely in that clutch, but pencilling him in for any kind of role in April is premature. You have Happ, Redmond and Rogers who join Morrow in that clutch.  I do not make assumptions about Drabek, McGowan, Hutchison, Nolin and Stroman, but one or two of them could make the case for readiness in spring training. 

The bottom line is that if the rotation in April is Dickey, Buehrle, Happ, Redmond and Rogers, I am fine with that.  That doesn't mean that the rotation will be the same in July. 

Agreed that Romero in the rotation in April is a sign of failure on AA's part unless some miracle occurs (ie: Romero comes to spring and throws no-no's non-stop with tons of K and almost no BB) and even then I'd be iffy. 

I'd like one more starter (a solid #1 or 2 guy) to go with Dickey and Buehrle. Morrow should get a slot at first but a short leash with a pen job in his future.  Happ, Redmond and Rogers should fill no more than one slot at a time.  Hutchison, Nolin and Stroman will be in AAA to start 2014 but hopefully one will earn a callup quickly.  McGowan I'd leave in the pen at this point although stretching him out in spring isn't a horrid idea 'just in case'. 

So ideal...
ML: new guy, Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, one of Happ/Redmond/Rogers with a kid taking over by end of May.
AAA: Romero, Drabek, Hutchison, Nolin, Stroman
AA: mix of prospects and AAAA guys if possible.

Loser of Happ/Redmond/Rogers? Not sure. One could be a long man if spots remain in the pen while another is in AAA  forcing one of the 5 I listed into AA.

Pen though is crowded: Janssen, Cecil, Delabar, Loup, Santos, and McGowan are locks, Wagner, Perez (both), Lincoln, and many others fighting for the final slot and any injury replacement slots along with at least 2 of Happ/Redmond/Rogers (with any luck).

"Morrow should get a slot at first but a short leash with a pen job in his future."

Why? The only question with Morrow is health. If he has recovered and is healthy there is no reason to even consider him in the pen. If he is not healthy he will be on the DL/rehab. Lets not be short-sighted and remember that Morrow when healthy is at worst a good #3 starter with the potential for more.

That leaves JA Happ, Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Kyle Drabek, Ricky Romero, Dustin McGowan (if converted) and Josh Johnson (if re-signed).  That could be 8 pitchers vying for 2 spots.  How many of those 8 could be optioned to the minor leagues as backup for the major league club?

I was looking at this earlier in the day.

This link from Blue Jay Banter might help figure out the rather complicated option process.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/1/2/3827160/options-options-options-and-outrights

From what I can gather the following players are out of options for 2014.

- Jeffress
- Lincoln
- L. Perez
- Esmil Rogers
- Sierra
- Redmond ( I read this in a story last week)

Players who can still be optioned down;

- Drabek
- Delabar
- Gose
- Hutchison
- Loup
- Wagner
- Romero

This list is by no means conclusive.

Morrow when healthy is at worst a good #3 starter with the potential for more.

He's pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title exactly once, in 2011. He's been better than an average pitcher exactly once, in 2012. And he'll be 30 next summer, which suggests that the concept of "potential" may have reached its statute of limitations. I'm counting on him about as much as I'm counting on Romero.

In the 5 years Morrow has thrown more innings as a starter than as a reliever his ERA+ was over 100 exactly once. As a jay his era+ is 98. Yeah decent for a 4th starter, endurable for a 3rd if he eats innings.

Morrow is a guy who will always be an if only.

Dickey and Buehrle are the only MLB starters for next season.

Hutchison, Drabek, Nolin, and Stroman should start the year in AAA.

Morrow is not reliable, is coming off injury, and should not be counted on as anything other than a #5 starter next season. If he stays healthy and productive, great, but don't count on it prior to the season.

Romero is a non-factor until he proves otherwise. Happ is a long man/#5 starter at best, and Rogers should be depth in case of emergency.

The Jays are three starters away from having a capable rotation, IMO.

Saying that the Jays need 3 starters is unnecessarily harsh, I think. The bar for an above average back-end starter is pretty low.

A backend starter's value is pitching into the 6th inning at least and keeping his team in the game in the majority of his starts. I really don't have much faith in J.A.Happ for that reason as his start last night seemed typical -- walking a tightrope when he was pitching, running up a high pitch count quickly and leaving the game early. Maybe stats don't back me up, but I wouldn't want to see him as more than a number 5 starter next year. I agree with John Northey that we need another top of the rotation starter, and after R.A. Dickey and Buerhle, let the rest fight it out for 4th and 5th spots in spring training.

Thanks wildrose.  My point is that even though the Jays have a lot of pitchers, both for the rotation and for the bullpen, not all of them will be able to be sent down to the minors to keep as reserves.  Some will have to be traded or they will likely be claimed by another team.

He's pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title exactly once, in 2011. He's been better than an average pitcher exactly once, in 2012. And he'll be 30 next summer, which suggests that the concept of "potential" may have reached its statute of limitations. I'm counting on him about as much as I'm counting on Romero.

During his career, Morrow has thrown 584 innings as a starter with an ERA of 4.33.  Counting on him to throw 160 innings in a season is obviously not realistic, but 140 innings with an ERA of 4.33 has some value.  Esmil Rogers and Carlos Villanueva could be expected to do about the same and maybe a little worse.  At this point, the expectations for Romero on the other hand have to be very, very low.  At this point, he ought to be expected to have a major league ERA well north of 5; despite Morrow's terrible start to 2013, he is better than that. 

Drabek and Hutchison are tough to measure at this point as neither established themselves in the majors yet when they went down.  Nolin and Stroman have a total of 1 ML game between them thus, obviously, cannot be counted on.  So I agree they are AAA starters until they prove otherwise.

Morrow is A) under contract and B) high raw skills thus will get a shot as #4 or #5 depending.  I have trouble seeing him as a guy to count on, but if healthy he should be valuable.  Just be sure the pen is rested for his starts.

Romero needs to prove himself just as much (if not more) as Drabek/Hutchison/Nolin/Stroman.  That will be a very good AAA rotation though.

Now for the tough 3...
A) Happ: signed for a fair amount of money for 2014, has averaged 5.0 innings a start, 6 times failing to get 5 innings in and maxing out at 7 twice. Not impressive for durability. 7 times he allowed 2 or fewer runs (very good), 4 times allowed 5+ (not so good).  His WPA (Win Percentage Added) was positive 7 out of 17 times - very not good. In the #6/7 role he is useful, but I don't want to see him in the #5 or earlier slot.
B) Redmond: Just 1 ML game before this year, has 12 starts and 3 relief appearances with a 107 ERA+. A 3.86 ERA as a starter is very nice, 5 1/3 IP per start isn't but is slightly better than Happ.  More than a K per inning with 2.6 BB/9 as a starter. His 1.4 HR/9 rate as a starter though is a big cause for concern. Based on the numbers I prefer him for the #5 slot over Happ
C) Rogers: 18 starts, 10 positive, 8 negative WPA's, 5+ runs allowed in just 4 starts, 4 times under 5 IP.  At first he was my last choice, but now I might pick him over Happ for that #6 slot.

So if no changes then I'd say the rotation would be Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, Redmond, Rogers with Happ a long man or in AAA.  Geez, if Happ is in AAA then that will be one expensive AAA rotation between him and Romero.

Happ would have to clear waivers to be sent down to Buffalo I believe. I imagine he'd refuse assignment ( which is his right), be released, Toronto then would still have to pay his guaranteed salary.

I think, although not totally sure, that even if Happ is released, plays for somebody else, the Jays would be still be on the hook for his salary. Not a great outcome.

Even if he's pitching at Buffalo , he's still owed big bucks, also not a great outcome.

Frankly I'm not sure what they see in this guy, other than he's a tall lefty who looks the part. He has average velocity, poor control and for me , sub standard breaking stuff.

Maybe the same scout who recommended Izritrus, scouted Happ?

Happ still has struck out almost 20% of the batters he has faced over his career and actually more than that the last two years.  The big issue is his control.  He cannot walk as many as he has the last two years and be successful.  He has to be able to trust his defence more.  If you run out a defence with Izturis at short, Bonifacio at 2nd and Cabrera in left-field as the Jays did in April behind him, he is going to struggle.  This year (unlike previous years in his career), he has particularly struggled with runners on base.  Opponents are 9-0 stealing bases (all with Arencibia) and this may not have helped. 

Long story short.  I do not see any reason why he could not be a capable starter with a good defence behind him.  Which is basically what Jack Morris has been saying any time I have heard a radio broadcast of a Happ start. 

Happ, Drabek and d'Arnaud were all high Philadelphia draft picks who ended up serving as major pieces in big trades: Happ in the Oswalt trade, Drabek in the Halladay trade and d'Arnaud in both the Halladay and Dickey trades.

So far none have been world beaters. d'Arnaud may well have a future, but catchers are far from a lock and thus far this season has looked more like Thole than Mauer. Happ and Drabek may well fizzle out entirely after some sputtering. It's hard to be too terribly optimistic about either.

I neglected to include Anthony Gose. He was also a high Philadelphia draft pick. He was moved in the big Oswalt trade and then in the less big Brett Wallace trade.

His future is also far from a lock.

To me, it looks as though Happ's problem is consistency. He often pitches well for a few innings, but then his control/command wavers and he makes too many mistakes. If he could be more consistent, he could be a respectable back-end starter. He's similar to Rogers in this respect.

Mike is quite correct, Happ does somehow miss bats at an above average rate. His command/ control issues however have plagued him for most of his career. Even if you ran Tampa's defence out behind him, I'm not sure he'd be able to just turn a switch on and be better.

Sadly like many would be Jay starters next season, he's a bit of an enigma. Do they change the pitching coach? Improve the defence? Bring in one more reliable starter? All tough questions. What gets some of these guys with potential over the hump?

It looks to me like improving the defence and changing the pitching coach are the best options.  When you've brought in three historically fine pitchers of a variety of types in Dickey, Buehrle and Johnson, and two of them have performed significantly poorer than expected and one has performed about as expected, it is a mistake to try to do the same thing again with another "high-end and high-priced" arm. 

It's hard for me to say that Dickey has performed significantly poorer than expected. If that's the case, I think the expectations were way too high for a knuckleballer with one elite year under his belt at 37. His 2013 is similar to his 2010-2011 adjusted to the AL East.

If you target the right guy (a Chris Sale level talent) you can probably get away with only adding one dependable arm, provided you fix the rest of the roster.

An argument has been made over at fangraphs that Sale has had a comparable season to Scherzer once you adjust for quality of opposition.  You're going to have pay very large for that.  I wouldn't.

As for expectations for Dickey, his ERA+ 2010-12 was 138, 112 and 139.  He has posted a 96 ERA+ in 2013.  I happily acknowledge that there is a difference between the NL East and the AL East, but even if you make a reasonable adjustment, he's still way behind the 2010-12 performance. 

At this point, the expectations for Romero on the other hand have to be very, very low.

Sure, especially if he stays here. But I also think he's talented and healthy and fixable. If I was running a team like the White Sox, or some other team trying to become a contender, I'd be wondering what Anthopoulos would do to get that contract off his hands.

Fixable he may be.  It's just that sticking him in the major league rotation is not the way to do it.  Let's say that the issue may lay in the realm of sports psychology; in that case, if he is fixed, 2014 would be the equivalent of 2001 for Roy Halladay.  Halladay made 13 successful high A relief appearances that year followed by 7 successful double A and triple A starts before coming to the majors for good. 

I am not saying that Romero ought to be given up on.  I am just saying that expecting him to compete for a rotation job at the outset of the year is entirely the wrong approach.  There is a lot of merit to sticking him in the Dunedin bullpen in April after working on whatever are his issues during the off-season.

This winter will give AA a chance to show off his 'dumping' skills with Romero ($15 mil over 2 years), Morrow ($20 mil over 2 years), Cabrera ($8 mil), and Izturis ($7 mil over 2 years).  Lose all 4 of them and clear off $26.5 million from the payroll next year and $22.5 in 2015 without hurting the club very much (assuming Romero & Morrow don't regain their old form).  That is a lot of cash.  Happ is $5.4 mil for 2014.  All cases I'm assuming options are not picked up for obvious reasons.

I say dump all of them as Romero, Morrow, and Happ did not look any better than what I'd expect from Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, Drabek, Nolin, Stroman, and others.  They have a track record where all 3 have had 'wow' years in the majors, but 2013 made it look like those years were behind them (Dave Stieb also has a great track record as does Roger Clemens but we aren't about to see them pitch here next year).  Cabrera might recover but probably will be no more than a 100 OPS+ LF with poor defense and I'd expect better from Gose/Sierra/Pillar and even Davis (who at least adds speed to the mix).  Izturis....the less said the better but Goins (or Kawasaki or whoever) has to do very little to be more valuable.

A reminder that signing middle of the road guys can kill you.  None of the deals on their own look horrid, but combined they eat more salary than Johnson did.

Russ Martin and Melky Cabrera signed similar contracts (Martin $17m/2 years; Cabrera $16m/2 years).  It's not that you don't need "middle-of-the-road guys".  It's which ones...

if he is fixed, 2014 would be the equivalent of 2001 for Roy Halladay.

Not exactly. Romero's nowhere near as broken as Halladay was in 2001. He also has a much more impressive record of success in the majors than Halladay did at that time. This isn't Steve Blass or Rick Ankiel we're talking about. What's happened? This - Romero's basically walking 1 more hitter per 9 IP and allowing 1 more hit per 9 IP. That's quite bad enough, it's enough to turn him from an All-Star to a chump. From Like-Happ-But-Better to Like-Happ-But-Worse. It's not a makeover that's needed - it's a tweak, a correction.

But I have very little faith that this is the organization that can fix him.

"Saying that the Jays need 3 starters is unnecessarily harsh, I think. The bar for an above average back-end starter is pretty low."

I disagree. Right now the two best starters on the team are league average inning eaters (Dickey and Buehrle). If you have five of those types, then maybe you can get by without an ace, but having two of them and then the rest of the options being #5-6 starters is not going to cut it. Morrow has never produced a good full season and is nearing 30. I have no problem sticking him in the #5 role and then seeing if he shows up healthy, but by no means should he be counted on for 2014, and I don't think it is fair to include him as anything more than a bottom of the rotation option at this point along with the rest of the group (Rogers, Happ, Romero, etc).

I agree with the sentiment to trade as much deadweight as possible. The Jays currently have $25M tied up on Melky, Izturis, Thole, Happ, and Romero. Not a single above average talent in that group, and I'd argue average is about the best any of them are capable of at this point. The Jays really need to find a way to clear some salary so that they could add more pieces to the core group of players.

One pitcher I would try to target is Rick Porcello. The Tigers are stocked in the rotation and Porcello is an expensive #5 option for them from 2014-15. He will be 25 next season and all of his numbers are trending upwards. Possible breakout candidate. I'm sure the Tigers are aware of that, but with Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Fister, and Smyly in the mix, maybe they deem him expendable. Or maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

It's more like 2 additional walks per game for Ricky.  He had his walk rate/9IP down to 3.51 and then 3.20 in 2010-11.  He walked 5.22/9IP in 2012 in the majors and 4.99/9IP in triple A in 2013 (without even mentioning his 2 terrible starts in the big leagues). 

I think that it is considerably more than a tweak.  Wherever he is, the first half of 2014 should be in the minor leagues.

For fun, I ran a Play Index to see if I could find a pitcher who had a similar loss of control at age 27-28 and came back from it.  Sure enough, Roberto Hernandez/Fausto Carmona did.  If Ricky is going to pitch under an assumed name, I'd suggest Roberto Marichal. 

I disagree. Right now the two best starters on the team are league average inning eaters (Dickey and Buehrle).

In what universe does this describe Dickey? 

In what universe does this describe Dickey?

Dickey's ERA+ is 96, which is probably about average for a starting pitcher. And he has logged 217 innings with a start to go.

I think that it is considerably more than a tweak.

Who knows, but Halladay was a complete makeover, a rebuild from the ground up. This is something else. I do think that after whatever existential crisis was afflicting Romero in April and May, he appears to have sorted out his control issues at Buffalo. From June 1 through the rest of the year, his BB/9 was 3.84, which is more in keeping with his past history (and if you toss out the Colorado Springs game, when he was sick, it was 3.43.) As always, he was good at keeping the ball in the park. But he was giving up quite a few more hits than usual. I don't know if it was random chance, if the defense let him down, or if the hitters were generally just teeing off.

Wherever he is, the first half of 2014 should be in the minor leagues.

I'm not sure about that - if he looks like the old Romero through the first month or so of real competition in AAA, that'll probably be good enough for me. But I just hope they don't make up their minds based on whatever happens in spring training. Not with this guy. Romero, you may recall, pitched brilliantly in the spring of 2012. And he stunk out the joint in the spring of 2011.

"I disagree. Right now the two best starters on the team are league average inning eaters (Dickey and Buehrle)."

"In what universe does this describe Dickey? "

He has a 96 ERA+ in 217 innings. That is pretty much the definition of league average innings eater, at least this season. I do think Dickey can improve next season based on his numbers post-May (3.79 ERA in 142.2 IP), but I'm reluctant to predict anything resembling his Mets career due to his age and knuckleball.

Honestly, Dickey and Buehrle (while he is grossly overpaid over the next two seasons) are the least of this team's issues. I'd take a 4.00 ERA over 200+ IP from two starters any day of the week. The issues are no one else in the rotation will likely come close to those numbers, and that's going to be a big problem unless AA has some tricks up his sleeve in acquiring pitching help.

(while [Buehrle] is grossly overpaid over the next two seasons)

Debatable. In total, he will cost the Jays $39.5MM over 3 years. He earned $11MM this year, $18MM next year and $19MM in 2015. The Marlins kicked in $8.5MM in the trade. This year, he has been worth 2.6 WAR, which is equal to $13MM according to the Fangraphs valuation. 2 more seasons of this (a lot of league average innings), and the Jays will get their money's worth. The yearly salary looks rough, but the balance of the contract is probably fair.

The overall point stands, though. At worst, it looks like the Jays can count on 400 league average innings.

Checking Romero's stats, in his first 3 seasons (his good ones) he had 3.5 BB/9 vs 7.2 SO/9 and 0.9 HR/9 for an ERA+ of 119.  His FIP though was 4.33, 3.64 and 4.33 with his xFIP in the same range (adjusts balls in play to league average, xFIP also adjusts fly balls going out of the park to league average).  In AAA this year his BB/9 was 5.0 and K/9 was 6.4 while HR/9 was 0.9 - the HR was good but the rest was AAAA quality at best (more like AA).  Using the June 1st to the end figures we get 3.8 BB/9 6.9 K/9 and 0.9 HR/9 which produced a 4.68 ERA.... yeah, I'm not celebrating.  Thad Weber in 100 innings in Buffalo (15 starts, 3 relief games) had 0.4 HR/9 1.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 all far better figures than Romero all done at the same age (28) plus in his 6 ML innings for the Jays he only allowed 3 runs (2 earned) vs Romero's 6 1/3 IP allowing 7 R/ER.

Thus if you are impressed with Romero's production in Buffalo (after cutting out his horrid initial games) you still get a guy who did worse than a AAAA filer guy who was taken off waivers twice in the past two years.

I'm not sure about that - if he looks like the old Romero through the first month or so of real competition in AAA, that'll probably be good enough for me

You might be right.  In 2008, Romero was pretty poor in New Hampshire for most of the year; nonetheless the club sent him up to Syracuse where he made 7 pretty good starts at the end of the year (but still walked 4 per 9IP but did strike out over 8).  The club thought that he was ready for the big leagues, but I was skeptical.  The club was right.

Romero was striking out more at the end of this season, but still giving up a lot of hits.  With the triple A infield in Toronto, that might be not primarily his responsibility. 

Romero is a good example of the unpredictability of pitchers. He was floundering for a while, then, iirc, midway through 2008 he made a significant improvement. Then he spent spring training 2009 working with Arnsberg on his changeup, and voila! 1st-round washout to major league starter in under a year.

I don't know if he's as easily fixable this times, though admittedly no one seems entirely clear on what's wrong with him. His old delivery was a problem, then he couldn't stick to his new delivery, maybe it's psychological... At this point, I don't think anything could surprise me. He might show up to spring training back in prime form, or he might never start a major league game again.

(The latter is unlikely - he's left-handed and has had some very good seasons, so he's going to get a lot of chances, maybe with a lot of teams)