JJ might be pitching a bit better, but the D is bailing him out nicely too. Two beauty DPs through 4.

nice to see the hitters get to Felix, too. and quickly.

Does anyone think Josh Johnson was being protected, 86 pitches over 5.0 innings? Does anyone think that better selection needs to be made in selecting the reliever to replace Johnson in games, different but very good? Or was Juan Perez unlucky?

Much better JJ last night....

He did not get bombed with runners on base

His fastball was consistently down at the bottom of the strike zone and it looked like it had good movement on it

He was not throwing his other pitches for strikes so the hitters could sit on his fastball. He was throwing those other pitches down in the dirt and hoping for swings and misses, he did get some of those

It was a very positive start for Johnson, not great, but quite good. Hopefully he can build on it.

In post-game interviews, Johnson gave credit to Thole, for pitch selection, and to the defence for turning the DPs.  Johnson has had a world of trouble with runners on base this year, and having confidence that the catcher will likely block the ball in the dirt and that the defence will likely turn the DP if the opportunity presents, has to help with that.  The two DPs turned last night equalled the number the defence had previously turned behind him all season.  Johnson also helped himself by getting over quickly to first base on the 3-6-1 and giving Reyes a good target for the return throw. 

It's almost as if pitching and defence go hand-in-hand.

Whodathunkit?

Looks like JP is slowly losing his pitchers. Too bad Thole isn't having any hitting luck.

Today's question: is Aaron Harang pitching any differently in 2013 than he did in 2012 and 2011? He has pitched very well in Safeco this year and has been absolutely killed on the road.  The Mariners have turned only 3 DPs behind him in 18 starts. 

Throughout his career, he has always been vulnerable to the home run (Marcus Stroman prospectors, take note) but compensated by striking out many and walking few and was very successful in his prime.  As he aged, his K and (to a lesser degree) his W rate fell, with the result that he became more dependent on his defence. The last two years he benefited from pitching in Petco and Dodger Stadium, and (I suppose) facing pitchers, as well as defences which turned some double plays behind him.

Does this story sound somewhat familiar? 

I'm curious if we'll see the same battery next time Johnson takes the hill.

Something to ponder: Arencibia is 0.0 fWAR for the season. By way of comparison, Yan Gomes is 2.2 fWAR (in 171 PA).

A tough thing for managers - what is the limit on 'horrible bat' that you'll endure in order to allow pitchers to have the 'ideal' catcher?  Thole's down to -6 for OPS+ (yes, negative) while JPA is bad at 72 but not at Thole's nightmare level.  If Yan Gomes was still here we'd have a bigger debate as his OPS+ is 144 over 171 PA but was viewed by the Jays as not being worth using as a catcher except in emergencies.  FYI: Cleveland has a 3.74 ERA with Gomes, 4.04 overall (too small a sample size to mean much, but not what was expected) - he is their #2 catcher.  Of course, Gomes was part of the trade to get Esmil Rogers who has been an asset this year.

Aviles is 0.8 WAR, so the Indians have received 3.0 WAR from two part-time up-the-middle players. Good production for a team in the thick of the playoff hunt.

Rogers has shown promise but has been inconsistent. 0.7 WAR. If he gets untracked, it could be a good deal for the Jays. Aviles and Gomes would not have changed the trajectory of the Jays' season, but could have been useful utility players at positions of need.

It's not the -6 wRC+ number that would worry me about Thole's bat.  He looks quite bad at the plate, behind on pitches that he should be able to catch up to and drive (which he has done in Buffalo and in previous years in the major leagues).  It may be that playing once every five days has affected him. 

If it were me, I'd let Thole catch Dickey and Johnson, and let Arencibia catch Buehrle.  For the other two spots in the rotation, I'd make a decision taking into account handedness of the opposing pitcher, overall workload, and day game after night game considerations.  I am more interested in seeing whether Thole's bat revives than whether Arencibia's overall game improves.  But that's just me. 

What Mike said ^. At least until one or the other proves he deserves more time.

Mike - makes sense.  Checking by catcher stats for starters. OPS used as that is what I easily got from B-R
Dickey: JPA=681 (1 game), Thole=773 (308 PA), Blanco=740 (324 PA)
Buehrle: JPA=721 (597 PA), Thole=n/a, Blanco=1.136 (25 PA)
Johnson: JPA=863 (340 PA), Thole=758 (44 PA)
Rogers: JPA=818 (349 PA), Thole=482 (24 PA), Blanco=333 (6 PA)
Happ: JPA=753 (150 PA)
Redmond: JPA=720 (93 PA), Thole=710 (43 PA)

Not a lot to read into that.  Johnson is a drastic difference but super-small sample size for Thole, just like Dickey with JPA in a super-small sample size.  Bit surprised to see Thole vs Blanco for Dickey as it seems like Dickey is doing better but this suggests not. Still, the idea of splitting the pitchers between them, I'd go with 2 each (Dickey/Johnson for Thole, Buehrle & Happ for JPA, Rogers alternating).  See if getting the pitcher/catcher tandems locked in helps for planing and execution.

This team is so much easier to watch when you don't have to put up with JP Arencibia.

Esmil Rogers was acquired from whatever Team, I don't care, for to guys named "who". Both of those named "who" would still be buried in the minors on this Team. So if it matters so very much "who", go be a fan of that Team. Either Rogers is running out of gas, telegraphing his pitches, or, been figured out. That doesn't matter as it will be resolved soon. Rogers performance this year makes him an ideal #6 or #7 Starter for our Bullpen in 2014 and possibly beyond. A.A. just needs to sign 3 years at $3-5 MM per year to do just that.

After watching the 3 games in Seattle I've been thinking, dangerous as that may be. Have any baseball teams in recent memory ever played home games in a neutral site other than because of stadium issues? With all the Jays fans going down to Seattle wouldn't a home and home with the 3 home games being in Vancouver be pretty neat? I guess one issue might be BC Place Stadium as I'm not sure it can be configured for baseball but the concept would be pretty neat IMO.

Brett Lawrie's now up to 100 RC+ and his wOBA is .321. His OPS for 2013 is now up over last year, and post All-Star break .313/.373/.582/.955.

Brett Lawrie is great defender at 3rd Base, except for one problem, he goes brain dead from time to time. An error to lead off an inning costs 6 runs, and that is stupid.

How many games has carelessness and stupidity cost this Team. I think at least 12 games. How many more, who knows?

To me the bigger issue is Mauer giving up 5 walks, 3 hits in 3 innings and the Jays don't score a single run off him.  8 baserunners, 10 outs (3 1/3 IP) and 0 runs - that is just sad.  That was the chance to blow the game wide open, and they didn't.  Mix in Happ being up too soon (shocking...Jays calling up a guy before he is ready) and it all adds up to far more than a bad play by Lawrie.

You'll now have one of those official scoring paradoxes that mess up the totals at the end of the year, as the two runs charged to Loup are charged as unearned to the team total but charged as earned on Loup's individual total. Rule 10.16 strikes again.

The pitchers giving up 11 hits and 6 walks didn't help matters much either. They did score 7 runs but probably could have scored 12... Pretty much a team effort IMO

What I can't understand is a LH Reliever come in to relieve a LH Starter especially as Happ was that sharp. Was Gibbons asleep?

Ken Rosenthal is reporting Mark DeRosa has been claimed on waivers by an unidentified team.

I can't understand is a LH Reliever come in to relieve a LH Starter especially as Happ was that sharp. Was Gibbons asleep?

Seattle's lineup is extremely LH, with a couple of switch-hitters. Loup came in with a LH batter and two switch-hitters due up. But yes, Gibbons obviously waited too long to pull Happ, who wasn't very sharp. It was the 5th inning. Get through that and he gets the W. That's how the managers manage.

Interesting. Wonder what DeRosa is worth on the market? He has an option for 2014 at just $750k which isn't that much over the minimum and is a reasonable backup at 3B/2B and as a RH DH/1B and has played LF/RF in the recent past as well.  An ideal player for a playoff bound team, and fits nicely here at the moment.  A C level prospect is a must, B ideally (using grades from Sickels as a level).  That would add a new top 10 prospect to the Jays system and thus be of value, otherwise might as well hold him.

I'd be shocked if a team dealt a B prospect for DeRosa.

I'd agree Thomas, but for the Jays what is the point of getting a C or lower?  DeRosa has ML value, a C or lower probably won't (I'd say under 10% chance).  If DeRosa mixed with someone gets you a solid B then that is fine too, but don't give a guy up for nothing when he clearly has value on the club.  A few others I'd say 'dump him' but DeRosa is cheap and useful.

Depending on who claimed him, I might let DeRosa go. He's near the end of his career, so I'd want to give him the chance to play on a contending team and possibly see the playoffs.

Ryan, the Jays have an option on DeRosa for next year - if you're going to give him away for nothing so he can play in the playoffs, do it then.

I say keep him. He has value for the team in the room. Brett Lawrie looks up to him. Good role model for the team so unless it's a decent prospect coming back...keep him and pick his option up for next season.

Ryan - that is a good point. Keeping players feeling that if you go to the Jays they'll let you go to a playoff team if the Jays aren't could be of value.  6 times he has been in the playoffs, just once did he get past the first round and that year (2001 with Atlanta) they lost in the 2nd round. So he has never been to the World Series and that would be a big incentive to him now.

Checking the stats, he actually has a -0.1 bWAR so he hasn't added value (other than by keeping other even worse players off the field).  His defense has been his undoing, as his oWAR is 0.7 but dWAR is -0.8.  Maybe just getting a 'faint hope' C or even C- prospect is fine as long as he is sent to a serious playoff contender and would be a guy that would say 'Jays are a good place to sign' to free agent backup players this winter if they ask.

If dealt I guess Kawasaki returns, although the Jays would like a RH bat one would think.  Andy LaRoche is the only RH bat that could be called up who has already been here, Mauro Gomez has the best OPS for RH hitters in AAA (283/316/531) - plays 1B/3B.  Kevin Pillar also is a RH hitter hitting 299/342/494 now and would be slotted into LF I'd assume with Davis platooning with Lind at DH.

If you're going to keep Mark DeRosa around, you simply must stop letting Adam Lind face lefties in the middle of the order. I have very little faith in this happening considering that Gibbons continues to run Lind out there despite his career of flailing vs. southpaws.

Some managers might have pulled Happ after the 4th in the circumstances- first outing after a not very successful rehab from a significant injury.  "Y'know, Jerry, I wanted Happ to get a chance to finish 5 innings but it's a long road back after what he went through...."

If the manager has a "slave to the win opportunity" theory (as most do), the club should have brought Happ back into the bullpen and had someone else start in his place. 

1) Brett Lawrie's brain dead blip cost this team the game, killing momentum will a bomb. Reyes' oops killed it dead.
2) I don't like pushing Pitchers in their first game back. Why? Chances of success do not outweigh the opportunity for something bad happening. Let's keep it a happy return, having Happ eager to do more next outing. Now he's got to worry about defense on every pitch he makes.
3) Why do we have RHP and LHP? Was Gibbons awake or going stupid? Bringing in a LH Reliever to take over for a LH Starter makes no sense. Bring in a righty for the next 9 batters, then bring in Loup, where he can be effective.
4) Ask DeRosa. If this deal gets bigger and a better return, fine. If not, that's fine. Whether DeRosa goes or stays should be his decision. Chances are he's made his wishes known before this time.

1) Brett Lawrie's brain dead blip cost this team the game, killing momentum will a bomb. Reyes' oops killed it dead. A leadoff error leading to a guy on second didn't cause all 6 runs...it's one error. A lot of hits from the opposition lead to the runs. It happens, especially to this team. Did I miss something especially terrible that Lawrie did? It was just one error, happens 10-20 times a year to the best of them. What did Lawrie do, exactly, that made this a worse error than usual for the whole team? The Smoak double, the HR, those were much more important.    
2) I don't like pushing Pitchers in their first game back. Why? Chances of success do not outweigh the opportunity for something bad happening. Let's keep it a happy return, having Happ eager to do more next outing. Now he's got to worry about defense on every pitch he makes. If you mean Happ should have been pulled earlier mid-inning, I agree. But Happ doesn't need to work his arm into shape, he's ready to go longer already. If he can avoid giving up 7 runs, of course. Chasing the W was the problem.      
3) Why do we have RHP and LHP? Was Gibbons awake or going stupid? Bringing in a LH Reliever to take over for a LH Starter makes no sense. Bring in a righty for the next 9 batters, then bring in Loup, where he can be effective. Which righty in this pen do you bring in for 9 batters? It's the 5th inning - Gibbons went with his preferred 2-3 IP guy, it just didn't work out. The bullpen performance is the only spot Gibbons has earned the benefit of the doubt.    
4) Ask DeRosa. If this deal gets bigger and a better return, fine. If not, that's fine. Whether DeRosa goes or stays should be his decision. Chances are he's made his wishes known before this time. I agree, you have to discuss it with DeRosa. Is he likely to retire anyway?

Did I miss something especially terrible that Lawrie did? It was just one error, happens 10-20 times a year to the best of them.

Lawrie decided to make an error thinking that it would be fine to do so because the Jays had a big lead. He probably even knew that the Mariners would follow with a bunch of hits and runs. But he didn't care. He just went ahead and made the error anyway.

1) Top of the 5th, one out on a routine play. Oops. Brett Lawrie boots a ROUTINE play. This resulted in a runner on 2B and increased stress in a fun game. Nothing else mattered, this is where the game was lost. It doesn't happen, the world changes. The problem is that Lawrie's errors occur too often on routine plays.

2) Happ should not pitch more in his first start than he pitched in the minors. This is still a kind of spring training for him. Bad first inning, three successful innings equalling pitch count, puil him after four. He's bee out for almost three months. Build him up slowly.

3) Lincoln was called up for this, so use him for the 5th and maybe the 6th, then Loup for 7 and 8.

8) DeRosa has an option and will play next year if asked. I doubt he retires, so as an asset he has better value with a cheap option.

"The problem is that Lawrie's errors occur too often on routine plays."

I think you will find that as a matter of definition, every error occurs on a routine play.

Beyonder

My opinion is my opinion. However, I can be convinced to change it for something other than a cheap shot. Prove what you say and I might agree.

There are simple routine plays and not so simple routine plays (degree of difficulty matters) that Fielders must make. The not routine plays are usually made, but not always. The difficult one are difficult and more. Routine plays are not automatic with Brett Lawrie. The harder they are the better he is. However, blowing one of the simple ones is a game changer in the making.

an error is the act, in the judgment of the official scorer, of a fielder misplaying a ball in a manner that allows a batter or baserunner to advance one or more bases, when such an advance would have been prevented given ordinary effort by the fielder. That's the rule, as it is generally enforced. Routine isn't in the rule exactly, but it's pretty close to meaning the same thing.  Players make errors, and sometimes things go horribly wrong afterwards. It's up to you to prove that a team of major players was so rattled by an error to lead off an inning, in a meaningless August game in which they were up 5 runs, that they simply collapsed. It's up to you to prove Lawrie's errors are exceptionally error-ish(?) and meaningful. It is possible that an unexpectedly high number of unearned runs are scoring after his errors, I guess. He's not a high percentage fielder by any stretch, although he looks to be about average on FP (and above average on other metrics), so there have been a few to look at.

If you want pressure to build in an inning, how about telling every fielder that any misplay on a routine play is terrible and will cost the team the game. And throw in the pitchers - any bad pitch is a potential home run, so don't throw any more bad pitches, it might demoralize the rest of the team. And hitters, only swing at strikes, and never make weak contact on a pitch you could have hit, that is a basic mistake that will send the team on a tailspin. No pressure. Don't over think it guys, just play loose and never make any mistakes at all, or your fragile teammates will implode.

Once more, with feeling as necessary - Seattle's lineup consists of LH batters and switch-hitters. That's why you bring in a LH reliever. If there were some RH batters due up, he might have brought in Lincoln. But there weren't, so he didn't. He just waited too long to go to the pen.

There's also the minor fact that Loup is a better pitcher than any of the RH relievers he had available. That might enter into it as well.

Another gentle soul offended. Tsk, tsk. That's unfortunate, but it happens.

A routine play is a play made routinely, EVERY SINGLE TIME, or it's not routine. There is a degree of difficulty in the plays, but at this level, it's still routine.

My contention, that offends everyone, is that Brett Lawrie made a game changing error on a very routine play. I believe having a runner on second with no one out is more stressful (pissed) than no one on base and one out. Was Jose Reyes out of position, because of the player of second, or would he make that out if no one on base?

Big picture people are always big picture people and small picture people are always small picture people. They seldom agree.

Richard - I think everyone gets that Lawrie made an error on an easy play.  Big deal.  We see it many, many times in a season by all players.  There is no way on earth that caused 7 runs to score.  It just didn't.  It annoyed the pitcher, it annoyed his teammates?  Sure.  But enough to make all these pros suddenly fall apart and allow 7 runs?  Uh, no.  That is insulting to both logic and to the players involved.  I mean, c'mon, if the pitcher was so fragile that his players making one mistake would lead to a total collapse then he shouldn't be in the majors.  I remember how Dave Stieb used to glare at anyone who did that behind him, but while it annoyed him visibly it hardly made him go 'screw this, I'm going to let every last guy get on now'. 

Want to argue that Lawrie deserves a trip to the woodshed?  Sure, that's ok.  To say that it was the 'turning point' and the Jays were doomed, doomed I say, once it happened?  Uh, no - you will find the vast majority of people will say that is as silly as saying a billy goat not being let into Wrigley in 1945 led to a fan leaning over the wall and taking a ball / out away in the 2003 playoffs.  Sure, some will believe it, but most know it just ain't so.

My opinion is my opinion.

So?   Why is your opinion worth listening to exactly?  You speak as if your “opinions” were indisputably sound; but on the evidence of your posts there’s no good reason to pay any attention to them.  You’re fond of making vague and imprecise assertions such as,  “Big picture people are always big picture people and small picture people are always small picture people.”   As if that meant something; though you can’t be bothered to elucidate just what.  Resistance to your posts is seen as “a cheap shot”  or as some “gentle soul” having been offended.  (And you seem to take it as a matter of pride to give offense anyway.)  People are “brain dead” or “stupid” if you don’t like what they do.  In short, you present yourself as an exemplar of that great Canadian stereotype, the redneck who’s ignorant and damned proud of it.  Is that what you wish to do?  If so, tell me exactly why I should pay any attention at all to what you write. 

A butterfly flaps his wings and a thunderstorm causes a flash flood on the other side of the world. Are they connected, I struggle with the concept but say "yes".

J.A. Happ is enjoying pitching 3 scoreless innings after initial struggles. In what he knows, but does not want, this is is last inning and he'll at least win this game. First batter hits ground ball to Lawrie for an easy out. What the f..., it goes under his glove and the runner's in scoring position. Sh.. What's next?

That might not even be close, but Happ's pumper's thumpin'. He's annoyed to say the least. Otherwise he's not human.

Was the pitches to the next batter Happ's best selection? Was Reyes in a different position than normal because of the runner on second, when the ball goes past his glove, how frustrated are players getting. No way Happ's pitching his best with runners on 1st and 3rd.

So did a cricket jumping in India cause this?

J.A. Happ is enjoying pitching 3 scoreless innings after initial struggles.

I'm sure he would have enjoyed pitching 3 scoreless innings. I'm sure he wishes he had pitched 3 scoreless innings. But he didn't pitch 3 scoreless innings

My mistake, more reason to pull him after four innings.

That still doesn't change pitching to your second batter of the inning with an easy out or with the first batter sitting on second base. The whole game has changed.

The universe splits there and we're in the wrong one.

I found this Eno Sarris interview with Jonathan Lucroy interesting, particularly on the physical positioning for optimum receiving.  I remember Bob Boone as being very good at it (he was 6'2" tall according to BBRef but did get a nice low target for his pitcher even into his 40s).

I hadn't been to Baseball Prospectus in a while.  I found this Blue Jay past, present and future payroll chart particularly helpful.  Even if Josh Johnson pitches brilliantly the remainder of the season, there may not be enough payroll room to make him a qualifying offer. 

Rios was just traded to the Rangers.

Thole gets his 4th straight start tonight.  I am pleased.

It must be one of those patented injuries which causes a player to miss about 5-10 games but is not serious enough for the team to think it's worth putting the player on the DL, in which the Jays seems to specialize.