Via MLB - The players who were handed 50-game suspensions that effectively end their regular seasons include Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz, Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta, Mariners catcher Jesus Montero, Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera, Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli, Phillies reliever Antonio Bastardo and recently demoted Mets utilityman Jordany Valdespin. Minor Leaguers Fernando Martinez, Jordan Norberto, Fautino de los Santos, Cesar Puello and Sergio Escalona were also suspended.
2+ days of rest: Loup, Oliver, Perez, Santos
1 day of rest: Lincoln (but 38 pitches so not really available)
0 days of rest: Cecil* (just 9 pitches), Janssen (10 pitches), Wagner (20 pitches)
So all but Lincoln and Wagner are available (Cecil & Janssen didn't pitch the 3 games before so should be in good shape). Hopefully not all will be needed.
Or do we still "go for it". Esmil Rogers is running out of gas or just sucking badly his last two starts. A.A. said they're keeping an eye on him. If he 's shut down, who comes up. J.A. Happ starts Wednesday, so how good is he now? Josh Johnson is Start-to-Start and must be good to stay. Who replaces him?
A little of one, a little of the other. I think the league is catching on to him.
My first thought - geography. Biogenesis operated out of Florida. Plenty of athletes were implicated with BALCO in Oakland, and I don't remember tow many Latinos in that crowd.
As to the suspensions - Latin heavy due to the place being busted being in Miami which would naturally have connections to Latin America instead of, say, California or Japan. If it was one in California then it would probably be heavy on the players from that part of the world.
S.Strasburg: Surgery Sep.4 '10 - 4 rehab starts - Return Sep.6 '11 (12mos, 0wk)
A.Wainwright: Surgery Feb.28 '11 - Return Apr.7 '12 aka Start of '12 season (13mos, 1wk)
B.Anderson: Surgery Jul.13 '11 - 6 rehab starts - Return Aug.21 '12 (13mos, 2wks)
Jays' rehabs....
K.Drabek: Surgery Jun.8 '12 - 9 rehab starts - Return ??? (so far out 14mos)
D.Hutchison: Surgery Aug.7 '12 - 5 rehab starts - Return ??? (so far out 12mos)
I'd guess both can be called up whenever they get up to 100+ pitch counts, as long as they're pitching well. Drabek's already been given some extra time b/c it was his 2nd TJ I think.
Season: 232pa, .233avg, .293obp, .429slg, .722ops
Last 20: 79pa, .282avg, .342obp, .535slg, .878ops (since return from injury)
Last 14: 55pa, .347avg, .400obp, .653slg, 1.053ops
So, what do we see for 2014 in the question mark areas? Anything positive?
3B: Lawrie - since back from last injury 282/342/535
2B: Izturis - June 10th to now 275/333/356 - right after an 0-7 game and after an 0-14 streak
2B: Bonifacio - July 1st to now 294/368/441 over 38 PA (0 SB 3 CS though) - huh, I didn't notice that.
CA: JPA - 1 for last 26 with 1 walk, 1 HBP, 1 Reached on Error, 1 GIDP ...er... OK, no making that look good
So on offense we see hope at 2B and 3B. Catcher though... sigh.
Obviously Cano or Utely would be a huge upgrade as well, but will likely come at too high a cost.
I have noticed Bonifacio hitting a lot better lately, and feel he could be a valuable bench piece and would like to see him stay.
So, what is AA to do? He wants an ace for the rotation, new 2B (or SS or 3B which requires some shuffling) as top priorities, then comes DH, LF and catcher. I see LF as the lowest on the list, with Davis being resigned as a backup/platoon partner. A good hitting RH shouldn't be hard to find, but one who can play LF or somewhere else might be. A new catcher is much harder - it would require trading away JPA I suspect as you want to have Thole or someone used to the knuckleball and there aren't many around who are.
Florida is one reason, but also simple networking. Didn't Canseco turn a bunch of guys onto juice? You're more likely to ask guys you know for information. When the MOTW of this fiasco is made, I bet there will be a lot of scenes at backyard bbqs while the children innocently chase beach balls around and someone gets hurt.
I remember years ago people felt Leo Mazzone was a super-genius as a pitching coach in Atlanta. But when he went to Baltimore nothing went right. Was it him or other stuff around him that caused it all to work so well in Atlanta but not so well in Baltimore? Who knows. But the club that can figure it out, how to measure success for coaches, is going to have a major leg up on the other teams. I wonder if Tampa already has.
When Sparky had his great clubs in Cincinnati and Detroit, they were solid down the middle of the diamond (Bench, Concepcion, Morgan, Geronimo and Parrish, Trammell, Whitaker and Lemon). That made it a lot easier, and in particular, made the pitching situation a lot easier to deal with. Gibbons has not had that luxury; I don't think that the talent on this club has brought out his best qualities.
Myself, I'd like to add one front-end SP from outside if possible, but I'd hesitate to pay the price for a second one, given the internal options. I'd wager that even if we didn't add anything from outside, our SP will be significantly improved next year regardless.
Not so much on offense.
Second Base IMO is by far and away the most critical priority. The Jays have posted a .537ops at 2B this year. .537ops. That's not just the worst offense from 2B in baseball this year by a healthy 50ops points, it's the WORST OFFENSE AT ANY POSITION BY ANY TEAM IN BASEBALL THIS YEAR. Miami has the worst catcher offense in baseball this year, at .578ops. With all their injuries, the Yanks have been playing AAA guys at 3rd all year and their 3B have posted a .556ops. KC has the worst SS offense in baseball at .551, Houston the worst CF offense at .594. But Toronto's .536 at 2B this year is the worst positional OPS anywhere in baseball this year.
And the depressing is this isn't the result of too many injuries or extraordinarily bad luck - we knew Izturis and Bonifacio weren't starting material unless we got really lucky, and the years they've had are no surprise, really.and the cherry on top here, of course, is that they've also been extraordinarily bad defensively, too. and the whip cream on top is that they've been 50% base stealers (11/22) this year as well. and the real kick in the nuts is that Kawasaki would likely have been a signficant upgrade offensively and defensively and baserunning-wise over what we got. 2B has been a historically bad position for the Jays this year, and the sad thing is that it wasn't all that unexpected. Even worse is that we have no internal solutions in the system anytime soon unless Andy Burns can make the switch over. For me, 2B is by far and away the biggest priority for next year.
Left Field is also a spot of concern, but while they've been bad for us this year, they haven't been horrific, and with a chance at Melky rebounding a bit due to health, and with Davis, Pillar, and Gose all potentially contributing there next year, this spot isn't quite as urgent IMO.
Catcher is also an issue, but I also think JPA will inevitably rebound to at least average C offense again next year, like he has done before. And since he's dirt cheap, there's no reason not to keep him around. More urgent would be to upgrade on Thole with a C with legit starting potential, who's also plus defensively. Being lefty would be nice, too.
And one spot I wouldn't sleep on is Designated Hitter. I still don't have much faith in Adam Lind. Over his last 42gms he's posted a .190/.245/.361/.606 slash line, which is unacceptable. His season stats are about to fall below .800ops, which will take all the lustre off of his early season success. If he doesn't turn it around over the lats couple of months, we're heading towards another season of sub-.750ops hitting from our DH, which just isn't good enough. I'd be focussing on adding a righty DH with legit starting potential, not just a lefty masher. A guy who can at least platoon very well with Lind, but could take over the role completely.
My offseason priorities (subject to change willy-nilly over the next two months):
1. 2B
2. #1 SP
3. RH DH
4. LH C
5. LF
Neither of those scenarios is true.
Uglyone - You are BANG on. I agree with everything. You've identified the targets but what/who do you propose are the solutions?
It'll be interesting to see how they go about it next year, especially if they get a top 10 pick again thus giving them 2 in the first 11, something that wasn't possible until 2013 (the first 13-15 picks were protected in the past, depending on league size thus no team could have more than one of them). If AA feels it is a deep draft again, does he try to trade for some of those competitive balance picks other clubs got? Does he punt a ton of picks again? Does he draft 'unsignable' guys after round 10 again (that I figure is a lock - a good backup strategy)?
I figured historically picks after the first 10 rounds rarely make it to the majors, let alone star. But in 2000, a year I randomly grabbed as being far enough in the past to be 'done', you saw 57% of first round picks make it, 56% in 2nd, 23% in 3rd, 40% in 4th (including Cliff Lee, David DeJesus, Yadier Molina - heck of a 4th round), 23% in 5th, 23% in 6th (3.3 WAR total), 33% in 7th (Aaron Hill who dns and a batch of filler), 23% in 8th (Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis), 16% in 9th (Encarnacion), 20% in 10th (Clint Barns plus filler), 30% in 11th (huh, a lot more than I expected), 13% in 12th, 6% in 13th, same in 14th, 13% in 15th, 3% in 16th (Jamie Shields so a big one), 23% in 17th (4 who got to 10 WAR), 3% in 18th, 13% in 19th, 10% in 20th. So basically picks after the first 11 rounds were a 1 in 10 shot at making the majors with a small shot at stardom (maybe 1 in 50) if they actually would sign (didn't check outside of Hill if they signed).
Thanks to the new system though things are going to be much harder to tell now. The Jays aren't the only club to punt picks in the 3-10th rounds in an effort to have more cash for top 3 round picks (the guys the Jays signed in later rounds for big bonus money tended to be viewed as 2nd/3rd round picks). In the past teams would draft guys with big demands if they could afford it, or draft lesser talents if they couldn't afford it. Now its a bit messed up as the Jays 30th round pick (Rowdy Tellez - but just a 465 OPS so far in rookie ball in 53 PA) could better than their 2nd round pick, same for their 11th round pick Jacob Brentz. Go figure eh?
I'd wait a few years before saying the Jays had 'no strategy' in 2013. If those 2 develop then the strategy used worked really well, if not then it didn't.
Here are the catchers 2010-2013, who had significant time, sorted by wRC+. You'll find Arencibia at #26 of 29. Why would one think that Arencibia is going to do better in 2014 than he did over his career? His major league career to date has been marked by steady regression in all spheres. It is one thing to imagine that he might return to his career averages, but anticipating that he will do better than that is another thing. And what about the defence? His numbers on what you can measure are poor, but what about the other things? Don't you think that when a pitching staff does worse than any reasonable projection of what it is likely to do, some of that might be attributed to the dynamics of the pitcher-catcher relationship?
I don't see any urgent need to dump him. Upgrading the uselessness that has been Thole/Blanco seems much more important, IMO.
My hypothesis is that ten years from now we will be able to see pretty clearly that the strategy of punting picks does not work. What I mean by this is that an organization would be better off if they just picked the best player available (who will sign for slot) at each point in the draft.
The Jays punting strategies used in the past two drafts look on their face to be very similar, but they're actually quite different. In 2012, the Jays selected Matt Smoral, a player for whom the Jays had a good idea of what his demand were, and then decided to punt the last 7 rounds in order to accumulate enough slot room to sign him. I don't think this gambit actually pays off in the long run, but you can make a case for doing it.
What happened this year was very different. The Jays began punting (or "semi-punting" in the case of guys like Hollon) right after the 1st round. When Bickford failed to sign, the Jays were left holding the bag with a ton of slot money to burn, no one to spend it on, and nine rounds worth of underslot signings.
It's fine that they were able to sign guys like Tellez and Brentz, but these are simply guys who happened to have been left over after 10 rounds of drafting. When these sorts of players are the crown jewels of your draft class, something has gone awry.
Moral of the story: if you are going to punt in order to sign a single high value player -- make sure you actually sign that player.
Actually, ChinaFan is correct. When the original poster's point is a ridiculous exaggeration stated as an absolute fact, it is that point that contributes little to the discussion.
Right now JPA is at 373 PA vs last years 372. Right there is part of the story - he has been used far more than in the past and that might be a big part of the problem. He has 6 fewer hits, 2 fewer doubles, 1 less HR, 4 fewer walks, 3 more strikeouts, and even grounded into one more double play. That is the difference between an 89 OPS+ catcher and a 73 one.
So what to do? Thole is signed for 2014 and JPA is under team control, but neither will cost much in 2014 ($1.25 for Thole, JPA should be in the same ballpark first year arbitration). Gotta think Jimenez, A.J. is at least a year away (in AA, season line between A+ and AA is 302/344/406), no other catcher in the system outside of Thole has an OPS over 700 (he tore up AAA) and is playing over short season ball. Wonder if we can get d'Arnaud (Mr. DL, now in AA hitting 708 OPS over 19 PA) back?
Catchers have funny career paths sometimes, so maybe he can still figure it all out. But you've got to be quite the optimist to believe he can be the starting catcher for a contending team in 2014.
I see that Dioner Navarro is on the list of free agents. He's hit well in 150 PAs in 2013 and could probably be had for relatively little. Over his career, he's hit .270/.340/.440 against LHP and he has hit enough against RHP that you could give him 300 PAs in a season without losing much.
There is no "correct" response to somebody else's comment. The point is simple: write something that contributes to the discussion and moves it forward in some way rather than simply leaving vague statements pointing out that someone else's language is incorrect. Beyond the fact that it's lazy, it also comes off as if you care less about sharing an opinion on the discussion at hand and more about nitpicking the way it's written.
The original comment "Either they are really smart and the rest of the league is stupid or vice versa" is a false dichotomy - the fallacy of the excluded middle. Logical fallacies - statements that either intentionally or unintentionally misrepresent information - are serious problems for the high level of discourse that happens on the Box. China Fan was not being dismissive of the posters opinion, IMO, he was rejecting a misleading statement.
We obviously have very different ideas on what constitutes moving a discussion forward. Under what light is stating either the Jays are smart and everyone else is stupid or vice versa an incorrect usage of language? Time was there was an expectation on this site that a poster should not speak in absolutes unless they know something for fact. Stating that the above statement is not plausible is hardly nitpicking nor sufficient reason to brand another poster a troll.
1. The Jays have followed different draft strategies than the rest of the leagues both this year and last year.
2. The results have been... different.
3. Nobody seems to be emulating the Jays, so the other GMs must think those strategies are inferior.
Was there a poll on the Jays' drafting strategies?
It might also help to have an organization and team that can elevate a player's game, not drag him down a notch. This might be another way to obtain average-or-slightly-above performance instead of below-average performance.
Kyle Lohse was available until March 25 because nobody wanted to lose a first round pick on him.
The Jays have tried a bunch of stuff over the last 20 years, but they don't seem to have a clear philosophy or identity as an organization (besides, perhaps, a general notion of looking for undervalued assets and trying to avoid albatross contracts). I guess "we know how to develop pitching" might have been a recent motif, but that seems to have blown up over the last year or two.
Josh Johnson vs Felix Hernandez? Really? Will there be a mercy rule?
Well done, Magpie. As the Milk Carton Kids said before they performed at Newport this year, high expectations are our worst nightmare.
I don't think AAA is the developmental league it once was. I've read (from Keith Law and others) that many teams have their top prospects bypass AAA.