Delabar was used on July 22, 24, 26, 38, 30, 31 and August 2. He's on track for 68 appearances and 72.2 IP. I'm not sure why he's been pitching so much in what has long since been a non-contending season. If the Jays regard him as a significant piece for 2014 (the fact that they held on to him last month suggests that they do), they might want to back off on the usage a bit, especially given his injury history.

Perhaps it's purely coincidental, but I remember when Gibbons fell in love with Janssen in 2007, using him 70 times (a total of 72.2 IP). Janssen ended up having shoulder surgery and missed the following season.

I heartily approve of the use of the Phantom DL to rest the overworked 'pen arms.

These continuing defensive blunders (both physical and mental) do not reflect well upon this coaching staff.

Since the days before the Draft, Relievers have little to no value if they can't Start. All through the Minors, they have little value unless dominant and none if just good. Even in the Majors, Relievers have limited value. Those that are great get overused (always) and those that are really good eat innings. They might get slightly decent money. Janssen makes $3.0 MM, while Johnson gets $13.75 MM. Whose better?

Managers, on good or bad Teams, do the same thing. They must win and Bullpen use determines decisions. Great hitting, great Starters, great Defense matter very little without great Bullpen pitching. And Managers must win.

I find it interesting that the only non-injury related move AA has made all year was to dump Blanco for Thole. Other than that, injuries are the only thing that is preventing our roster from being identical to what we came into the season with.

SP Dickey
SP Buehrle
SP Johnson
SP Morrow
SP Happ/Romero

RP Janssen
RP Santos
RP Oliver
RP Delabar
RP Loup
RP Cecil
RP Rogers/McGowan/Lincoln

SS Reyes
LF Cabrera
RF Bautista
1B Encarnacion
DH Lind
3B Lawrie
CF Rasmus
C Arencibia
2B Bonifacio

UT DeRosa
OF Davis
IF Izturis
C Thole


considering how bad this season has gone, I'm not sure if that's admirable patience or being a deer caught in the headlights.

A quick check-in on Darvish's year to date:

21 starts, 10-5, 2.66, 138.2 IP, 94 H, 16 HR, 47 BB, 186 K, 159 ERA+

Lots of teams with financial muscle (like Boston and LA) are doing just fine despite having passed on Darvish. On the other hand, the Rangers are 1 GB in the wild card race with Darvish (behind Tampa and Cleveland, and 0.5 games ahead of the O's). Imagine where they would be without him.

Anyone else out there call Brett Lawrie getting picked off second there? I can proudly say I did. Now, who calls Lawrie not taking responsibility for that after the game?

Kudos to Arencibia for sticking in and taking one there.

A.A. decided Darvish wasn't worth the money, not going to be good enough, long enough. Also something about not going for it. That was the offseason prior to 2012. At around the same time, he also passed on Fielder for basically the same reason. Neither were the right decision.

Imagine 2012 with those additions! Imagine this past Offseason, different acquisitions?

We'll get a nice long look at Sergio Santos, while Steve Delabar gets healthy. We'll get a decent look at Brad Lincoln and be able to make a decision on him. Unfortunately, we need to put Josh Johnson and his knee on the D.L. sometime soon. The sooner Esmil Rogers is removed from the Rotation, the better we'll be. Of course that means we need two more Starters, and that's the problem.

J.A.Happ is really struggling lately and Ricky Romero is a long way from ever being ready again. I don't understand sending Chad Jenkins down to disappointment/frustration and an ugly season. Keep him up and never send him down, who knows what happens?

Now there's really no need to keep Darren Oliver, Rajai Davis, and a few others who deserve better.

Grigor Chisolm has an article on the sloppiness of the Blue Jay defence, and the #1 offender is....Colby Rasmus?  For his off-line throws?

You aren't allowed to say bad things about our fragile little snowflake. J.P. would be calling out AA for his negativity.

Delabar was used on July 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 31 and August 2

And in related news, from Gregor Chisholm:

Delabar has experienced lingering discomfort for the past several weeks and it finally reached the point where the Blue Jays wanted to play it safe and shut him down for a brief period of time.

Discomfort in the shoulder? What to do? Should we shut him down for a while? Or have him pitch five times in seven days? Hmmm. That's a tough one...

I know! Let's do both!

On the radio today, Howarth and Morris were bemoaning poor Casey Janssen who's only been able to pitch in 37 games because of the team's circumstances (unlike the fortunate Jim Johnson who has been able to pitch in 53). Good thing the Jays are 51-60 and not 0-111 or Janssen may not have been used at all this year.

In defence of his usage in the 5 appearances before his 3-run game he pitched 4.2 innings while striking out 11. Pretty damn good. Bullpen's been a bit thin as well I suppose thanks to Johnson's sucking and Rogers' regressing.

So A.A. has mentioned that Johnson's Start verses Seattle might be his last. He suggests Sean Nolin and Marcus Stroman are ready for promotion and could be called up. He also mentioned that Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are due to return.

Sean Nolin is on the 40-Man Roster, while Marcus Stroman is not (unfortunate). Neither Kyle Drabek not Drew Hutchison are ready without another 75-100 I.P., although Drabek is further along.

Neither Kyle Drabek not Drew Hutchison are ready without another 75-100 I.P.

Richard S.S., I think for I speak for the Box at large when I ask, where do you get these numbers? 

Considering he is a lefty, if Rasmus had exhibited accuracy at any point before he was drafted, he would have been turned into a pitcher. As it stands, his arm reminds me of Alex Rios, who had an absolute rocket, but just never realized (as a Jay, at least) that he had to aim further left.

Common sense, does anybody still use it?

Check Drabek and Hutchison stats for this year, pay attention to Game Logs while in Minors. Tommy John recovery time is usually 12 -18 months. If early activation, don't expect better than average at best. The longer away from the surgery the better the recovery. Now use common sense. How far away are these kids from being effective. 75 - 100 IP is a safe number.

All this extra work could have been saved if common sense was still used.

Uh, Prince Fielder?  The guy with the contract that goes through 2020?  Who has a 113 OPS+ in his second year of that massive contract? Who has a body type that traditionally doesn't age well?  You really think the Jays would be better off with him this year than Encarnacion (147 OPS+) or Adam Lind (122 OPS+)?  Remember, Fielder is getting $23 million this year, and $24 million each and every year from 2014 through 2020.  Odds are if the Jays did go sign him before 2012 then Encarnacion might not have been resigned.  EE is signed for less guaranteed money for 2014/2015 than Fielder gets this year alone ($21 million if option not taken for 2016, $19 mil if it is with 2016 costing $10 mil).

Fielder's also a pretty poor fielder...

Yeah, richard, i think you're way off onthose numbers.

Both hutch and drabek are at or past the 12 month mark, and both are approaching the 100 pitch limit already. They're not far off at all if they're pitching well.

Tommy John usually does take a year, year and a half to recover but the time has been shrinking as training and knowledge of how to recover increases.  Both Drabek and Hutch have been gone over a year now.  Drabek has 24 2/3 IP in the minors so far, with 4 BB vs 23 SO. His 3 HR are a touch higher than ideal but not horrible. His high for pitches so far is 70, so he should be down a bit longer to get to the 90-100 range.  Spring training is what he basically is going through, and perhaps a safe thing is to make it a 2 month spring so leaving him down until late August, early September could make sense.  So maybe 5 more starts (2 AA, 3 AAA) totalling another 25-30 IP putting him at 50 or so total.  I cannot see much benefit in waiting longer than that as by then he'd be up to 100 pitches or put back on the DL.  If the Jays were willing to do tandem starters then you could bring him up earlier (4-5 IP max, 70-90 pitches) but I don't see that happening.

Hard to say what is ideal - generally though I'd think teams would look at it like a spring training situation and try to make it work within a month (the max rehab time) if possible. Drabek was probably optioned to the minors at some point during his rehab thus allowing unlimited time there. If he was an established ML pitcher though he'd have been up by now probably and limited to 4 inning/70 pitch games at first.

Yeah, pass on Fielder and his mammoth contract.

Darvish could still get hurt or lose his effectiveness, but for now he looks like a major missed opportunity for the Jays. My guess is that the non-signing was fundamentally about money. Unfortunately, in the end the Jays opted for the American model (Mark Buehrle and the $37M owed him over the next two years) instead of the Japanese import.

pass on Fielder and his mammoth contract.

Yup. I hate to say I told you so, but hey - I told you so.

Despite the 11 game winning streak, The Jays have gone 23-27 in their last 50 games. The Miami Marlins have gone 27-23.

John, I think 50.0 IP might be two few. I'd like Drabek and Hutchison to be pitching into the 7th before they come up. This bullpen is stressed too much as is. I don't need them pitching well, just effective.

... but the time has been shrinking as training and knowledge of how to recover increases...

I must disagree. You are retraining a ligament that has done something different for 18+ years, not an easy task. Surgeries are more efficient, training method have gradually improved, but tissue heals at a certain rate. Unless outside/inside stimulus is applied, it rarely heals faster. It just makes it easier to asses the failures. I could be wrong, but a Surgeon would know for sure.

I think Edwin gets as much playing time in 2012 as he did and would develops the same. He was the only bat at the time for months (with a AAA roster). Fielder was signed very late. Offer $150.0MM over 5 years, earlier, and he would take it. Just wishful thinking.

I listened to Dan Schulmam on a TSN podcast. He thought we needed another BAT in addition to the Pitcher. The Bat was mentioned first and the Pitching was almost an afterthought .

I listened to Dan Schulmam on a TSN podcast. He thought we needed another BAT in addition to the Pitcher. The Bat was mentioned first and the Pitching was almost an afterthought .

6th in the MLB in scoring runs, 2nd LAST in the MLB in giving up runs per 9 innings. Common sense would say this is wrong.

-Dan Shulman vs AA-
From his media conference before yesterday's game (As covered by Gregor Chisholm yesterday):

At deadline you talked about having trade discussions about SP and 2B. Will those conversations continue in the offseason?
“I think so. I think they’re important. They’re definitely the most important areas. There are other areas that we can improve in. I definitely think those are the most important areas. I think the rotation more than anything else. Some of it might be internal, but again, I haven’t looked in the last few days, but when you’re second to last in starter’s ERA that has to improve. It’s hard to get to .500, to contend if the starting rotation ERA is where it is. You obviously put a strain on the bullpen, it puts a strain on the offence when you’re down that many runs. Everyone trying to do a little bit too much. It starts on the mound for us and even some of the sloppy play against Oakland, we still pitched well and we won the games.”

Dan Shulman is right and wrong imho. We should get another bat but we don't need another bat. We NEED SP. There's a big difference. If the 2B we get is "a bat" then great. If not then it's ok. From the rest of AA's answers to the scrum I can see him bringing in defense-first players for LF and 2B.

-Drabek and Hutchison-
I believe these guys need 100-150 innings pitched to be back to their ideal/normal effectiveness as pitchers. But that doesn't mean they won't be called up before then, especially since this season is pretty much finished. It all depends on what AA wants to do. I predict that they will struggle until they hit 100-150IP. If you look at Joe Nathan, he returned and had an off year and after adding close to 100IP he was back to normal. In any event I'm VERY excited to see Drabek after he gets through his IP count because I suspect he may have been pitching at less than 100% before the injury, as alluded to by AA in the Chisholm link.

I agree with Shulman.  Three points.

•  Run prevention is not only about pitching; it is about defence.  Adding a position player could be aimed at improving the defence. 
• The club is committed to Dickey and Buehrle.  You have to hope that Dickey pitches better in 2014 than he did in 2013.
• There are a number of pitchers returning to the majors in 2014 after injury or advancing from the high minors. 
  

If you believe the metrics, the optimal Blue Jay lineup this season had Lawrie at third, Kawasaki at shortstop and Reyes at second.  It never happened. 

Run prevention is not only about pitching; it is about defence.

Best guess I know of - and a guess is all we have and all we will ever have - is that about a third of run prevention is about defense. It all goes on the pitcher's records, of course.

Hey, remember those giddy pre-season hopes some folks had about the Jays having the best starting rotation in the league? This year's starting crew are 14th in the league in preventing runs. A Toronto team hasn't ranked that low since 1979. The 1979 starters were the only Toronto staff to rank dead last in the AL preventing runs.

1/3 is probably about right.  It's hard as hell though to measure the catcher's contribution.  As for "going on the pitcher's record", we surely know now that seasonal ERA is an imperfect way of measuring what a pitcher has contributed to a team. 

You might think after an off-season in which the club acquired Dickey, Buehrle and Johnson, people might be reluctant to dip into that pool again. I guess that it's the mythology of baseball: "you can never have enough pitching", "good pitching stops good hitting every time"...The romance of the ace.

Finally the Suspension are announced. The A-Rod show is yet to come.

1/3 is probably about right. 

I've always liked the 50/40/10 offense/pitching/fielding model of baseball but could be convinced that 50/35/15 or thereabouts is a better approximation. I'm pretty sure the old "pitching is 75% of baseball" trope is a long ways from the truth.

Reyes at 2B?

10601.0 innings at SS and 352.0 at 2B, someone's spiking the Coffee early.

Interesting players on that suspension list.  Jesus Montero who many here (myself included) hoped the Jays would get but the Yankees sent to Seattle where this year he had a 590 OPS (ugh). Francisco Cervelli, who is a current Yankee catcher who has been hurt this year (just 17 games), a Yankee outfield prospect (Fernando Martinez).  So 2 Yankees and one recent Yankee are among the 12 suspended. Mix in A-Rod and it really looks bad for the Yankees on the 'who ignores drug use or encourages it the most'.  They seem to feel A-Rod was 'recruiting' players into the drugs which seems odd - I'd bet more on his being a guy who told others 'hey, this works great for me, maybe you should try it too' rather than 'do it so I get a commission'. No A-Rod announcement yet which is interesting.

It's hard as hell though to measure the catcher's contribution.

For sure. But do you remember the piece I did when the Jays acquired Jeff Mathis, to near universal lamentation? (But 92-93 was supportive!) In which it was pointed out that in all five of his MLB seasons, the Angels' pitchers had given up at least .5 run per game fewer with Mathis behind the plate than with the team's other catchers. Those other catchers included two guys named Molina.  It hardly needs to pointed out that .5 runs per game is enormous - its roughly the difference between hitting like Edwin Encarnacion and hitting like Rajai Davis. Oh, they told me I needed to look at who he was catching, so I looked at who he was catching. They told me the samples were too small, so I tossed out the small samples. It didn't matter. Jeff Mathis saved runs, year after year after year. He makes life better for half the guys on the roster, which helps them make life better for the other half.

We're now up to seven years in a row. The 2012 Jays had a 4.39 ERA working with Mathis and 4.89 with the other catchers. And the 2013 Marlins - 2.49 with Mathis, 4.35 with Florida's catchers. Someone will want to know  about the impact of Jose Fernandez on all of that.  With Mathis, Fernandez has a 1.77 ERA in 71.1 IP, he has a 2.88 ERA in 56.1 IP with the other catchers. The rest of Florida's pitchers have a 2.59 ERA in 288 IP with Mathis, a 4.49 ERA in 585 IP with the other catchers.

No one knows why this happens. But it's still happening. And it's my strong suspicion that a fluke that happens year after year isn't a fluke at all; it's simply an ability that we don't know how to see. We've become aware in just the last few years that Jose Molina really has a hitherto undetectable defensive skill - pitch framing, which we can attempt to measure. That was good to know, and helped explain a few things. But Mathis doesn't shine there. Or in any of the few things we can measure about a catcher's defense.  Which leaves the large and extremely murky areas of handling the pitcher and calling the game. Where All is Fog.

Sometimes, it almost seems like simple common sense. Gregg Zaun, who knows much more about this than any of us, got all over Arencibia the other night for all the sliders he had Rogers throw to Howie Kendrick. Eventually Kendrick hit one of them - a good pitch, but he'd seen it half a dozen times by then - for an RBI single. I have a very vivid memory of Ken Huckaby calling for four Dave Bush slow curves in the same at bat to Angel Berroa, which resulted in 1) swinging strike 2) foul back 3) foul into the LF stands 4) RBI double. But it's seldom so obvious. And it goes far beyond the game plan, and the way you want to approach each hitter. It also involves understanding exactly what your pitcher can and can not do on this particular night (because every night is going to be different.)

I think these must be the things that Mathis is extremely good at.  Because he's really, really good at something. And that something is almost certainly the most important part, by far, of what a catcher does defensively.  Certainly, it's what anyone who ever played the position will tell you is the most important part of the job. The part we can barely see, and don't have a good way to measure.

10601.0 innings at SS and 352.0 at 2B, someone's spiking the Coffee early.

When Tony Fernandez was Reyes' age, he had 11.225.2 innigs at SS and 45.1 at 3b. He also had four Gold Gloves, which is four more than Reyes. Over the rest of his career, Fernandez played 2039 innings at SS and 4040 innings at 2b and 3b.

This is normal. There was a time when Reyes, like Fernandez, had a shortstop's range. But time passes - it did for Tony - and it may no longer be true for Reyes as well. The team may indeed be best served by moving him off the position.

Of course, if you are going to move Reyes, I'd much rather see him at 3b. I think he'd do well there, his best defensive asset has always been his arm. (Maybe see if you can sell him on the idea that it will be easier on his legs.) I don't know what would make sense on this team, however. I still don't know if this team has a 3b or not. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. I am pretty sure they don't have a 2b. Reyes probably does need to move somewhere soon, but I think I'd wait until we have some better idea of what else the team has.

Magpie: I suspect this also helps explain the Lawrie at 2B experiment. The Jays know they need one more infielder and ideally would shift Reyes off shortstop. If Lawrie can handle 2B at a high level, if Reyes is better moved to 3B, then things open up a bit. Then you have the option of 1) getting a new shortstop who is very strong on defense, 2) getting a new 2B who is very strong on defense [thus surrounding Reyes and letting his range wither], 3) getting a new 3B and shifting Lawrie to 2B (weakest defense alignment most likely), 4) new SS move Reyes to 2B keep Lawrie at 3B.

Option #1 is the 'statistically ideal' one, #2 is the easiest to sell to players here already, #3 might be the easiest to accomplish, and #4 is possible if Lawrie cannot handle 2B but Reyes can. Variables we do not know include how Reyes feels about moving, which players might be available in trade, and if Lawrie can handle 2B long term.  Many variables that are ones the club has a far better idea on.  Much like when A-Rod went to the Yankees, many of us thought A-Rod at SS and Jeter to somewhere else made a ton of sense but here it is 2013 and Jeter is still at SS and A-Rod at 3B (or suspended).

This offseason should be interesting. Wonder who we'll see in Jays uniforms come March?

So we have good average, Defense and big power at 1B; ? average, Defense and ? power at 2B; ? average, Defense and ? power at SS; good average, Defense and little power at 3B with Edwin at First, Brett at Second, Who??? at Short and J.R. at Third. Might not score enough runs, but should save a lot.

Did you forget Jeter's immense EGO, that wouldn't let Baseballs premier Shortstop play SS.

One good thing about Jeter's ego there - no one will be signed for SS other than him until he chooses to retire. He has such status in NY I doubt they'll let him go elsewhere, or ask him to play elsewhere on the diamond, until he feels it is time. While he still outhits all SS his defense is dropping.   Did you know in UZR/150 he has been a negative from 2002 on with only 2009 an exception?  Than since 2009 his UZR/150 has gone 7.8, -5.1, -9.2, -15.2, -28.8. As a Jays fan we can only dream that continues.  His FanGraphs dollar value has been below $15 mil a year from 2010 to today, and from 2002 (the earliest they list dollar values) to today he has cracked $20 mil in value just twice (2006 & 2009).  I just keep hoping the Yankees sign him long term again :)

Btw, any idea how the Yankees have stayed in contention again?  At SS their 3 semi-regulars (more than 20 PA) have been Jayson Nix (yes, the one the Jays released long ago) with a 607 OPS at SS, Eduardo Nunez with a 580 OPS, and Reid Brignac with a 276 OPS (yes, that is his OPS not his OBP or Avg) at SS.  Just scary.

At third base, instead of A-Rod, they've had Kevin Youkilis (now DL'ed), Jayson Nix, David Adams, Chris Nelson, Luis Cruz, and Brent Lillibridge with 20+ PA and only Youkilis has a sOPS+ over 70 (108).  Yikes.

Yet somehow they are still ahead of the Jays.  With Cano their only really good hitter, with Kuroda and Nova their only starters (5+ starts) over 100 for ERA+.  Helps having Kuroda at 167 for ERA+, Rivera and Robertson being a killer 1-2 punch in the pen, plus Boone Logan who would be a closer with many other teams.  It just doesn't seem right.  Sigh.

Vernon Wells is playing 1B against a LHP tonight. He is now, presumably, Overbay's new platoon partner.

"Btw, any idea how the Yankees have stayed in contention again? "


IMO, it's thanks mostly to the Jays laughable choke job against them this year (1-8), where they let Wells and Overbay run roughshod over them.

Pretty much. Take out 4 wins from that and they are out of contention.

Outside of what they've done against each other, Toronto is ahead of NY, pushing NY out of contention, certainly.

Although at this point they've got an uphill battle as it is.  They have to finish ahead of all of Kansas City, Texas, Baltimore, and Cleveland to get that second wildcard spot.  They're at least 3 games behind three of those teams (virtual tie and percentage points behind KC), and three of those teams play a much weaker schedule than New York.