Am I late? Buehrle vs Bedard, its like seeing double, except at different speeds.
Can the Jays break the streak?
Can the Jays break the streak?
So far, Toronto Starters usually give up a 3-run or more inning, and then, lately, Relievers give up 2 runs themselves,
Buehrle is an excellent AAA pitcher - he is having no trouble with this AAA team we're playing against.
The Astros' numbers for the season: 236/295/375, OPS+ 84.
That's what a slump-busting lineup looks like.
That's what a slump-busting lineup looks like.
That's one way to have an efficient relief effort.
Hey, a win is a win and a complete game shutout is wonderful in this painful season. Nothing like playing the worst team in baseball to either help get things going or to make it all end. Luckily they went for 'get things going' tonight, at least Buehrle and Reyes (3 hits) did.
Odd how much DeRosa is playing, but checking this month pre-today's 0 for 2 he was hitting 321/387/643 over 31 PA. June wasn't as nice, just a 634 OPS. Still, this is a guy who is a backup and seems to be limited now to facing LHP which makes sense but batting him 5th seems a big risk, but on the other hand lineup effects are overblown.
So 2 shutouts for Jay pitchers - one for Dickey and one for Buehrle. Hopefully the teams looking for a starter to help them down the stretch were watching and will give the Jays something useful for 2014 and beyond in exchange for the honour of paying a fortune to Buehrle. He is a good pitcher, just not a $18-$19 million one.
Odd how much DeRosa is playing, but checking this month pre-today's 0 for 2 he was hitting 321/387/643 over 31 PA. June wasn't as nice, just a 634 OPS. Still, this is a guy who is a backup and seems to be limited now to facing LHP which makes sense but batting him 5th seems a big risk, but on the other hand lineup effects are overblown.
So 2 shutouts for Jay pitchers - one for Dickey and one for Buehrle. Hopefully the teams looking for a starter to help them down the stretch were watching and will give the Jays something useful for 2014 and beyond in exchange for the honour of paying a fortune to Buehrle. He is a good pitcher, just not a $18-$19 million one.
Alright boys we need a 22 game winning streak. 1 game at a time. Too soon?
You may have to talk the Astros into staying in town for the next three weeks.
How long would a Buehrle v. Halladay circa 2006 matchup have taken without commercial breaks? I think 1:30 is too long an estimate.
How long would a Buehrle v. Halladay circa 2006 matchup have taken without commercial breaks? I think 1:30 is too long an estimate.
I was at this game, which clocked in at a tidy 1:50 (side note - first game I ever attended where the roof moved, although for the life of me I can't remember if it was opening or closing).
When I lived in Chicago in 2001-04, I made a point of going to the games Doc started at the Cell, I'm sure he matched up against Buehrle at least one of those times. I also saw Buehrle-Hudson twice, those games were just as quick
I was at this game, which clocked in at a tidy 1:50 (side note - first game I ever attended where the roof moved, although for the life of me I can't remember if it was opening or closing).
When I lived in Chicago in 2001-04, I made a point of going to the games Doc started at the Cell, I'm sure he matched up against Buehrle at least one of those times. I also saw Buehrle-Hudson twice, those games were just as quick
1:50? Wow. If you assume 2 minutes for commercials around 18x, that's like 1:15.
And now that I look at the boxscore, I was there too. I believe it remains the only game in MLB history won by a team without a baserunner.
And now that I look at the boxscore, I was there too. I believe it remains the only game in MLB history won by a team without a baserunner.
Buehrle is an excellent AAA pitcher - he is having no trouble with this AAA team we're playing against.
Buehrle is pitching almost exactly the way he did the previous two years, but the defence has saddled him with an uglier ERA. His FIP and xFIP are right where they always have been. Give him a good defence and he'll give you 200 innings with an ERA right around 4, or even a little better. He helps himself with his glove, so he has done better than his FIP and xFIP over his career. Josh Johnson has even more pronounced differences this year.
When people say that the club needs more starting pitching, rather than an infield (including a catcher) who can play defence, I wonder sometimes if I am watching the same game. It is odd that the rotation seems to have been more afflicted by the defence than the bullpen (perhaps the difference results from late-inning defensive substitutions). For the year, the bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.26 with a FIP of 3.93 and an xFIP of 3.82 while the rotation has posted an ERA of 5.02 with a FIP of 4.05 and an xFIP of 3.89.
Buehrle is pitching almost exactly the way he did the previous two years, but the defence has saddled him with an uglier ERA. His FIP and xFIP are right where they always have been. Give him a good defence and he'll give you 200 innings with an ERA right around 4, or even a little better. He helps himself with his glove, so he has done better than his FIP and xFIP over his career. Josh Johnson has even more pronounced differences this year.
When people say that the club needs more starting pitching, rather than an infield (including a catcher) who can play defence, I wonder sometimes if I am watching the same game. It is odd that the rotation seems to have been more afflicted by the defence than the bullpen (perhaps the difference results from late-inning defensive substitutions). For the year, the bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.26 with a FIP of 3.93 and an xFIP of 3.82 while the rotation has posted an ERA of 5.02 with a FIP of 4.05 and an xFIP of 3.89.
And now that I look at the boxscore, I was there too. I believe it
remains the only game in MLB history won by a team without a baserunner.
It happened to poor Dick Drago too. Rain-shortened, mind you.
It happened to poor Dick Drago too. Rain-shortened, mind you.
Mike, how would you rank the various fielders? To my mind/eye, in the INF, Lawrie at 3B looks to be comfortably above average, while Izturis is average, and Reyes and LindCarnacion are below average, but not terrible.
In the OF, Melky and Bautista seem slightly below average, while Rasmus is above.
JPA seems below average, but I have no idea how that impacts FIP, etc.
Maybe another way of phrasing my question is, where should they be looking to upgrade their defence? I suppose 2B is an obvious choice, since they haven't received much offence from 2b either, but other than that, what are you going to do? You're not going to move Reyes to the OF or Bautista to 1B or DH, so what are your options?
In the OF, Melky and Bautista seem slightly below average, while Rasmus is above.
JPA seems below average, but I have no idea how that impacts FIP, etc.
Maybe another way of phrasing my question is, where should they be looking to upgrade their defence? I suppose 2B is an obvious choice, since they haven't received much offence from 2b either, but other than that, what are you going to do? You're not going to move Reyes to the OF or Bautista to 1B or DH, so what are your options?
Buehrle has been exactly as advertised. His record may be 6-7, but the team is 12-9 when he toes the rubber. He has 6 games where he's given up 5 or more runs, and the team is 3-3 in those. 2 of those losses were 3 runs or less. Basically he gives you a chance to win every time out there, and it's hard to say that any of his losses outside of the most recent start vs. Baltimore can be pinned solely on Buehrle and not a poor team effort.
I agree substantially with your evaluations, PaulD. I think that Bautista has been much better defensively this year, and has been above-average, while Melky has been significantly below average.
My suggestions for improving the defence. Trade Lind at the deadline and make Melky your DH for the rest of the season; bring up Pillar and give him a try as your every day left-fielder. Look for a first baseman who can field (at the deadline and during the off-season) with the intention of moving Encarnacion to DH. Ideally find a better defensive shortstop and move Reyes to second base; alternatively find a better second baseman. Make Thole/Jimenez your catching team for 2014, and get started on that now.
My suggestions for improving the defence. Trade Lind at the deadline and make Melky your DH for the rest of the season; bring up Pillar and give him a try as your every day left-fielder. Look for a first baseman who can field (at the deadline and during the off-season) with the intention of moving Encarnacion to DH. Ideally find a better defensive shortstop and move Reyes to second base; alternatively find a better second baseman. Make Thole/Jimenez your catching team for 2014, and get started on that now.
It is odd that the rotation seems to have been more afflicted by the defence than the bullpen
Fewer balls in play, surely? Relief pitchers normally strike out more hitters, the Jays' guys are no exceptions.
Fewer balls in play, surely? Relief pitchers normally strike out more hitters, the Jays' guys are no exceptions.
Jays trade rumours are really few and far between. Hopefully it's AA being sneaky and working up some big trade magic but I fear it's stand pat.
Magpie, sometimes bullpens have better ERA than the FIP and xFIP; sometimes worse. Sometimes rotations have worse ERA than the FIP and xFIP. It is very unusual for this to be true to large degree on the same team. What it probably means in the case of the Jays is that the defence has been poor, and the bullpen happens to have been luckier than the rotation.
Here's a chart that might help sort things out a bit:
You can certainly make the case that the pen has been better than the rotation notwithstanding the similar FIP and xFIP, based on the IFFB and LD numbers. It is however likely that there is a luck element (on both sides) to the disparity between bullpen ERA and starter ERA.
Here's a chart that might help sort things out a bit:
| BABIP | HR/FB | LD rate | FB rate | IFFB | |
| Starters | .301 | 13.5% | 20.4% | 35.7% | 9.6% |
| Pen | .277 | 11.6% | 19.7% | 34.8% | 11.6% |
You can certainly make the case that the pen has been better than the rotation notwithstanding the similar FIP and xFIP, based on the IFFB and LD numbers. It is however likely that there is a luck element (on both sides) to the disparity between bullpen ERA and starter ERA.
I remember reading an AA interview that was recent where he said that he is trying but having trouble making a match. That the Jays want controllable players for the next 2 years (covering the window) or more. Still, with AA we all know not to worry about trade rumours as the rule is if we hear about it, then it happens within 2 days or it isn't real. Whereas our old GM kept the papers busy with trade rumours non-stop.
The defense question is a good one. For guys with 200+ innings played we see...
Great UZR/150: Rasmus, Bautista (15+)
Good UZR/150: Lawrie (5+)
OK UZR/150: Kawasaki, Davis (LF), Bonifacio (2B), Encarnacion (-5 to +5)
Bad UZR/150: Lind, Cabrera (-5 to -15)
Ugly UZR/150: Reyes, Izturis (2B), Izturis (3B)
Note for sub 200 IP guys: Izturis at SS is also very ugly, DeRosa at 3B is -30.9 (!!!) but at 2B is just -1.4 (-15 at 1B). Clearly for backups the Jays didn't look for McDonald types this past winter when they probably should have.
The defense question is a good one. For guys with 200+ innings played we see...
Great UZR/150: Rasmus, Bautista (15+)
Good UZR/150: Lawrie (5+)
OK UZR/150: Kawasaki, Davis (LF), Bonifacio (2B), Encarnacion (-5 to +5)
Bad UZR/150: Lind, Cabrera (-5 to -15)
Ugly UZR/150: Reyes, Izturis (2B), Izturis (3B)
Note for sub 200 IP guys: Izturis at SS is also very ugly, DeRosa at 3B is -30.9 (!!!) but at 2B is just -1.4 (-15 at 1B). Clearly for backups the Jays didn't look for McDonald types this past winter when they probably should have.
A.A.'s trouble making a match is more "not willing to meet the price" than length of time on contract. If he passing up front line talent because ... I'd like to ask why not.
Look for a first baseman who can field
They should hire TB's front office as head hunters. Find us a washed up gloveman at first base whom we all long ago thought could hit a little. Bring him over for a year, just long enough for the pixie dust to last. And pay him a pittance.
They should hire TB's front office as head hunters. Find us a washed up gloveman at first base whom we all long ago thought could hit a little. Bring him over for a year, just long enough for the pixie dust to last. And pay him a pittance.
I wonder if the Rangers might be interested in trading for Lind. They need a hitter now that Berkman is done, and Lind has a career 1080 OPS at Rangers Ballpark. He probably wouldn't be their first choice, but he might be an OK platoon option for them.
I feel as though Lawrie is at risk of going the way of Travis Snider: a natural hitter for whom hitting somehow became unnatural (by appearances, anyway).