... the pray-for-rain strategy isn't much use when your team has a retractable roof. Your pitchers are Todd Redmond and Chris Capuano.
... the pray-for-rain strategy isn't much use when your team has a retractable roof. Your pitchers are Todd Redmond and Chris Capuano.
I think I can hear Juan Perez warming up in the bullpen already.
OK, so it's not exactly an airtight theory. It is good to see some low-budget teams at or near the top of the standings, though.
This desperately delusional FO will sit on their hands and miss a golden opportunity to acquire future assets - this is the time of the year when relievers are overvalued to contenders & can bring back quality assets(plus the Jays have a plethora of minor league BP prospects) - contenders will pay & the Jays should make their entire BP available - I'm not saying the Jays will be able to do a Uehara for Davis steal but how about Cecil for a redundant Kolten Wong / Janssen & Delabar for Castellanos plus/ Texas Rangers have a rich system etc .- Given the unreliability in performance of relievers season to season, I think it's nuts to sit on BP talent having a good year.If all the Jays move is Darren Oliver, I'll be pissed. As an aside, I don't think there is an untouchable on the active roster - I wonder if Pittsburgh would be interested in Jose Bautista?
Come September, with the Jays safely ensconced in the basement and looking primed for a top ten pick - which would mean 2 picks in the top 11 & an opportunity to add some high quality talent to the farm (I know, they could draft a Deck McGuire type again) - the Jays will go on a completely meaningless winning streak & having sucked for the year, squander the one reward for sucking, just so the team, its FO & enablers can say, "see, this is the real Jays team, if only we didn't have a bad start - just wait 'till next year" End of rant, thank you.
I actually think this is a dangerous time for the Jays, the risk being that the Jays make a desperation move and end up getting fleeced themselves.
I'd certainly be willing to do your other hypotheticals as well, but I can't necessarily be angry if they don't happen. The other team has to play along. The Jays will able to flip relief pitchers for Rasmus because the Cardinals were happy to get rid of Rasmus.
- Hands up, those of you who predicted that Brett Cecil would be in the all-star game this year. Baseball is unpredictable.
- I don't see why the Jays are experimenting with Lawrie at second. He's a great defensive third baseman. Maybe Izturis prefers to play third when he's in the lineup, and because he's actually hitting and stuff, what he wants gets priority.
- I think The Tao Of Stieb called Lawrie's situation perfectly: he's trying to attack the game of baseball, and it can't be played that way. Lawrie in a batter's box reminds me of the description of Billy Beane there - it was a cage that crushed his spirit. I wonder whether Lawrie would have been better off playing football - I can see him drinking five cans of Red Bull and then going out and crushing a defensive safety.
- I think I have finally figured out Adam Lind. I knew that he was going to struggle the minute I heard that he had to miss a game with back problems. He's the hitting equivalent of Steve Karsay, for those who remember him: he's good when he's healthy, but not often healthy. Lind hit like gangbusters in the spring because, for once, all of his parts were working.
- I find it hard to blame AA for this season, despite it all. When (a) you trade for three starting pitchers, and (b) your team's glaring weakness is starting pitching, there's not much else you can do, other than maybe trade for six starting pitchers.
- The way things are going, Josh Johnson might wind up with the Jays in 2014 after all - as a non-roster invitee.
Pat: Carlos Marmol has had some big strikeout seasons.
Buck: Yep. His high was 65 in 74 innings in 2009.
Buck read the walks column, not the strikeout column. No crime in making a mistake, but you'd think the unimpressiveness of 65 would have raised a red flag.
Marmol's career high is 138, a 16.0 K/9 rate.
Nick Delmonico strikes me as a pretty good return for two and a half months of Francisco Rodriguez.
I think Lind is exceptionally easy to understand. First off, he should never play against a lefty. Second, because of his back issues, he should be given regular time off. Play him four times a week, and never against a lefty, and you can get great results.
Of course, then you read too much into those great results and decide that he needs to bat cleanup every day and here we are.
I did not watch the game tonight. I don't know if I'll watch another one this season. I can't take this anymore.
The last time I saw a team play this badly was the last time "Gibby" was fired.
Hey, they're on pace to go 74-88. Which is better than last year. Baby steps.
So what do we do - We trade for a 3rd baseman at the deadline (or yesterday preferably). We give Johnson, Behrele, Dickey, Morrow (in particular) a winter with the weighted ball. We "offer" Johnson - and pray the weighted ball did him some good - IF we're really lucky some other team signs him and we get a Supplemental 1st for him (if not we've got him for 1 year at about twice to three times what's he's worth) - either way I can live with it. We hope/pray that at least five of: Johnson, Dickey, Beherle, Morrow, Romero, Hutchison, Drabek, Stroman and Nolan can somehow make up a 2014 rotation.
And till then - we have an occasional wee dram of highland elixir. Given even a little bit of health luck - surely we're due... I'm still pretty high on 2014. At least I think it's 2014 I'm high on...
But this is a misrepresentation of Lind's season. After his injury, he had a brief slump of six mediocre games. And then he resumed his excellent hitting. He has posted an OPS of .825 in the nine games since that brief slump (not counting tonight). Nothing wrong with that performance, even if it's not quite as stellar as the earlier part of his season. The back problems might have bothered him for a few games, but he's certainly not been "struggling" (with the exception of that six-game slump).
I hope you are well.
Like war veterans, reminiscing about how they got their scars.
If the Jays could get a prospect equal to Delmonico for what's left of Darren Oliver, I'd take that without hesitation (not that I think that's necessarily possible). Delmonico has questions defensively, but he's a potential power bat, particularly if he can stick at 3B. He was rated this offseason as Baltimore's 4th best prospect by Baseball America. To me, that's quite good value for two and a half months of a reliever.
I know the calculation may be different if the Jays were considering dealing Delabar or Cecil or Loup with their several years of team control. I also understand that the Jays probably aren't interested in an A-ball 3B who is 2 years away from the majors, at least, if he makes it. However, I'd rather gather assets for Oliver and possibly Janssen and Juan Perez and sort the rest out later.
:-)
This one here is from Kerry Ligtenberg, this one is Terry Adams.
There is always the possibility of a Chris Davis-type bonanza, but typically bullpen arms (non-closers especially) don't bring back a whole lot, at least on their own. Also, my hypothesis is that teams are now valuing relievers somewhat more sensibly, perhaps as a result of sabermetrics and seeing teams perenially assemble bullpens on the cheap out of fungible parts. And now there's the CBA issue as well (no draft compensation for mid-season trades, and no more Type B picks). Contending teams still covet useful relievers, but they generally aren't going to pay a ton for them.
There is quality going forth:
1B: Edwin Encarnacion is a good enough 1st Baseman to play there. If he's D.H. going forward (bad move), the Team will need someone better than Adam Lind (traded or not brought back).
2B: Brett Lawrie should be very good here because you need to give Reyes the best support you can. If Lawrie's 3B, then you need a quality 2B that's much better than Izturis, DeRosa or Bonifacio.
SS: Jose Reyes, thank God, will be here a long time, he needs the best support you can give.
3B: If you can talk Jose Bautista into become the regular 3B, that's good. If not, you need a quality 3rd Baseman.
C: I'm willing to go with Josh Thole as #1 Catcher, if a quality Backup Catcher is acquired.
RF: Unless you need to trade him, Jose Bautista plays here.
CF: I'm willing to have Kevin Pillar here, so Colby Rasmus could be traded if necessary, otherwise keep Colby.
LF: If you can get a quality OF, I'll take Melky Cabrera as 4th OF, otherwise he stays. Mainly because he can't be traded.
Bench: I keep Macier Izturis because he's finally figured out how to play turf.
No hitters other than Encarnacion, Lawrie, Reyes, Bautista, Cabrera, Thole and Izturis stay. Lind, Arencibia, Bonifacio, DeRosa, Rasmus and Davis can be traded for whatever is needed.
Starters: R.A. Dickey should be kept. Josh Johnson has no trade value so he might stay (if he improves - good). If someone wants Mark Buehrle, Esmil Rogers, Brandon Morrow and Rickey Romero then I trade them. As for the rest Happ, Drabek, Hutchison and others, who knows their value.
No one on this Team/ D.L. Included would be a #1 Starter, or a #2 Starter, or a #3 Starter on the Dodgers, the Nationals, Giants and others. Until A.A. solves this problem, this Team will always be last.
Relievers: I would keep Sergio Santos ( little trade value), Steve Delabar (never get enough back), Dustin NcGowan and Aaron Loup. The rest can be traded for whatever comes back.
That being said, he does have clear upside and I guess that's what struck me and why I characterized it as a "fairly good return." I don't disagree that maybe teams are valuing relievers more sensibly these days as a result of all the reasons you listed, but it's in light of all those factors that Milwaukee still got a "B-" prospect for two months of a reliever which made me think it was a pretty good return, particularly when it seemed almost certain K-Rod would not be back next year.
- Started 13-0 and everyone thought 'wow'.
- Then from May 3rd to May 19th they lost every game, a 12 game losing streak.
- By June 4th they also had a 6 game losing streak followed immediately by a 6 game winning streak.
:-)
This one here is from Kerry Ligtenberg, this one is Terry Adams.
Batting cleanup, Dave Berg
The worst part of last night's loss was knowing there's likely scouts in the park watching guys like Oliver, who shredded his trade value. At this point it makes sense to take back whatever you can get for Oliver and free that spot up to see what you have in some arms for the future.
Pretty sure K-Rod had considerably more trade value than Oliver. Even before last night. So you shouldn't be thinking of getting something equivalent to Delmonico, but something considerably less promising. Of course, at this point you'll take whatever you can get. The team is going nowhere, and the end of Oliver's career is roughly two months away.
On the steps outside the RC before the game, our very small pena was discussing players who might be traded. Darren Oliver's name came up..."the Red Sox and Rays could use a left-handed reliever". I came back "they're smart enough to realize that he can't get out lefties". Right that time. 2nd inning, I said, "I think the Jays can win this one in a blowout". My friend says "yes they can score, but how are they going to prevent the other team from scoring?". 8-3 in the sixth, "Maybe a blowout", I say. My friend "too early". I concede his point, and later Darren Oliver comes on to prove us both right.
My random observations, some hopefully salient and some definitely silly:
- Brett Lawrie is central to this club's future and Darren Oliver is not. Lawrie looked much, much better at the plate last night. He wasn't as nervous, and looked under much better control. I consider that to be a very good sign and much more important than the result of last night's game.
- Mark DeRosa can no longer play third base
- Adam Lind's striding-to-the-plate music is tolerable the first time, but becomes progressively more irritating as the game goes on. He has to be limited to 3 plate appearances per game, if for no other reason.
- The bullpen is not in sync, and it is not because of a shortage of players. They need a long man. Perez is capable of filling the role. He didn't pitch in a natural long man situation on Monday night because he had pitched the day before, with the result that Gibbons had gone through his high leverage guys in a blowout loss. Ahead 8-3 last night, it would have been natural to bring in Perez to see if you can spare the high leverage guys. Gibbons didn't - Cecil didn't have his control, McGowan was hit pretty hard and Oliver was hit even harder.
- The club played with intensity the whole game; it was not a hard game to watch unless the result of the game was the key point.
I still like the core of this club- Rasmus (I had no idea that he would be a core player at the outset of the season but he is), Encarnacion, Bautista, Lawrie and Reyes. I'd be looking for a defensive specialist to play shortstop with the intention of moving Reyes to second in the off-season. I'd also be looking for a first baseman who can play the position. I actually think the club's pitching will be fine if you put a good defence behind them. Strangely, Josh Johnson's poor season may result in him being back in 2014, with the club putting in a qualifying offer.
I've been saying all season that the problem with the bullpen construction is not having a true long man.
This does not matter though. Like Oliver, Mark DeRosa is pretty clearly not important for where this club wants to be in 2014. The best he can do is set a good example. Hopefully, the manager puts him in a role where he can easily do that (platoon DH with Lind, and late inning defensive substitute in an emergency).
Great suggestion for a new rule Mike, I like it.