Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Nolin & Brown Just Kellen 'Em

Monday night saw the affiliates win four of the seven games that were completed. Vancouver is within a game of first place as the first half of the Northwest League season enters its final week.

New Hampshire 5 Portland 0

Manchester, NH — Sean Nolin (6-2) tamed the Sea Dogs for eight shutout innings, scattering four hits and two walks. The lefthander struck out nine and his groundball total was eight. Of his 98 pitches against the Red Sox affiliate, 70 were strikes. Chorye Spoone walked one and struck out one in a scoreless ninth.

All five New Hampshire runs came in inning number five. Andy Burns doubled home the first two runs and Adam Loewen singled him home. Melky Cabrera capped things off with a two-run homer. Cabrera and Gabe Jacobo had two hits each, with Jacobo getting a double, a walk and a stolen base. Brad Glenn had the other Fisher Cats hit. A.J. Jimenez and Kevin Nolan were both 0-for-4. Jon Talley was 0-for-3. Brian Van Kirk, who replaced Cabrera in left, was 0-for-1.

St. Lucie 4 Dunedin 3 (Game 1 - 7 Innings)

St. Lucie, FL — Nick Baligod opened the scoring by socking a solo home run in the second inning. RBI singles by Derrick Chung and Marcus Knecht in the fifth gave Dunedin a 3-2 lead. Baligod had a walk to go along with his homer. Matt Newman added a double. Peter Mooney had a base on balls. Jon Berti, Mike Crouse, K.C. Hobson and Gustavo Pierre were 0-for-3. Melky Cabrera was 0-for-2 in this one before giving way to Knecht in left field.

The rehabbing Sergio Santos worked a clean inning to start things off for Dunedin. Aaron Sanchez gave up a solo homer in his one inning of work. The rehabbing Drew Hutchison pitched two innings in which the Mets scored a run on a hit and three walks. Hutchison also punched out a couple of hitters. Dayton Marze pitched a one-hit inning with a strikeout. Lefty Tyler Ybarra (2-2) blew the save and suffered the walk-off loss as he was charged with two runs (one unearned after a Pierre error at third) on two hits and a walk. He also struck out a batter.

St. Lucie 4 Dunedin 2 (Game 2 — 7 Innings)

St. Lucie, FL — Jon Berti did the heavy lifting for Dunedin's first run as he led off the game with a single, stole his 39th and 40th bases of the season and then came home on a K.C. Hobson sacrifice fly. Dunedin scored their next run in the second inning on an error to even the score at 2-2. Berti was the only D-Jay with two hits but Mike Crouse got on base three times with a single and two walks and he stole a base. Oliver Dominguez and Shane Opitz both singled and walked and Marcus Knecht also had a hit. Peter Mooney walked and stole a pair of bases. Hobson, Nick Baligod and Pierce Rankin all collected a base on balls to ensure every D-Jay reached base. However, they left 11 runners on base by going 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position.

Sergio Santos got just the first two outs of the game as the Mets scored twice on two hits and two walks and had zero strikeouts. Jesse Hernandez (5-7) allowed the winning run on four hits and two walks over 3 1/3 innings while striking out one. Ajay Meyer worked a clean inning with one strikeout. Blake McFarland surrendered a run on two hits but struck out a pair in his one inning of work.

Lansing 10 Burlington 6

Lansing, MI — The fireworks began in the second inning when Santiago Nessy slammed a two-run homer. Kellen Sweeney followed with an RBI single and Dalton Pompey added an RBI double. Kevin Patterson put one over the wall for his 14th dinger of the year in the third inning to make it 5-3 Lugnuts. An Emilio Guerrero fielder's choice in the seventh gave Lansing more breathing room at 6-4 but the game was tied again at 6-6 a half-inning later. The Lugnuts put together another four-run frame to put it away in the eighth. Chris Hawkins singled home a pair of runs and Kellen Sweeney went deep for a two-run shot for the final buzz kill to cap off a 4-for-4 night. Nessy had the other multi-hit effort with two. Hawkins had a walk and a hit by pitch to get on base three times. Pompey also took one for the team while Jason Leblebijian reached base twice with a base hit and a base on balls. Carlos Ramirez legged out a triple. Christian Lopes was 0-for-4.

Javier Avendano only lasted 3 2/3 innings against the Angels affiliate as he yielded three runs on six hits and four walks. He struck out four and his groundout/flyout score was 5-0. Justin Jackson stranded two Avendano runners and pitched 2 1/3 shutout frames of two-hit ball with one walk and two strikeouts. Tucker Donahue had his troubles in 1 1/3 innings, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks with just one strikeout. Arik Sikula (4-0) could only strand one of Donahue's three runners and got the blown save. He did strike out three batters in 1 2/3 shutout innings while giving up just one hit.

Pulaski 7 Bluefield 6

Pulaski, WV — Jesus Gonzalez doubled in the Jays first run in the third inning. They added two more in the fifth on a D.J. Davis RBI single and a Tim Locastro RBI double to grab a 3-2 lead. Locastro knocked home another run in the seventh and Jonathan Davis followed with a two-run knock. Locastro and Gonzalez recorded the two-hit games for Bluefield. D.J. Jones had the other Jays hit, was hit by a pitch and stole a base. Jorge Saez walked and swiped a base. Dawel Lugo drew a walk but Mitch Nay and Matt Dean each went 0-for-4. John Silviano was 0-for-1 pinch-hitting.

Southpaw Zak Wasilewski gave up a pair of first inning runs but lasted three frames and gave up five hits and two walks with five punchouts. Fellow lefty Tim Mayza (0-1) had four Mariners cross the plate in 2 2/3 innings but two of the runs were unearned due to a Nay error at third. He gave up six hits and struck out two. Joe Lovecchio permitted an inherited run to score and gave up one of his own on two hits over 1 1/3 innings with one K. Brett Barber struck out two in a perfect ninth.

Vancouver 13 Everett 1

David Harris had a four-hit night to spark the Vancouver offence in Everett Monday night.

Everett, WA — After being shutout Sunday, the C's got reacquainted with home plate in a big way as they drew to within one game of Everett in this first-place battle. David Harris doubled home the first run as part of a five-run second inning. Chaz Frank singled home two more and an infield single by Dickie Thon Jr. were the other highlights of that frame. Ian Parmley doubled home another run in the third. A Brenden Kalfus walk opened up the scoring in the fourth while Harris singled home another and Parmley did the same with a fly ball. L.B. Dantzler connected for a two-run shot in the fifth. Melvin Garcia took one for the team with the bases loaded as part of a two-run eighth. Harris had four of the Canadians 12 hits, including two doubles. Jordan Leyland had two hits and a walk. Thon Jr., Dantzler, Parmley and Garcia also reached base via the walk. Justin Atkinson doubled and walked and Kalfus added a single with his base on balls. Michael Reeves and Matt Hitt also joined the walk club. Christian Vazquez and Dan Arcila were both 0-for-2.

Eric Brown is 7-for-7 in quality starts for Vancouver this season after seven shutout innings in Everett Monday.

Eric Brown (5-0) really did not need all that run support as he spun seven shutout innings of three-hit ball with nine K's. The former UBC Thunderbird set the tone early by setting down the first nine hitters in order. Lefty Joe Spano issued a free pass but whiffed one in a shutout eighth. Tim Brechbuehler could not keep the Mariners affiliate off the board as he allowed the Frogs to score a run on two walks but did punch out two batters in the ninth.

GCL Braves 5 GCL Blue Jays 0 (Suspended Top 4th)

Kissimmee, FL — This game will be completed today. Francisco Diaz was whacked a grand slam home run among his four hits and two walks over two innings. Lefty Matt Smoral had trouble finding the plate by walking four batters but his two outs came via the strikeout. Kamani Usui got the final out of the third to strand the bases loaded.

Rolando Segovia and Sean Hurley had the only base hits for the Jays.

DSL Blue Jays 8 DSL Reds 4

San Pedro de Macoris, DR — A Richard Urena groundout produced the first Jays run in the first inning but he was just getting warmed up. Urena would cap off a three-run rally with a two-run single after Deiferson Barreto singled home a run. Michael De La Cruz was able to single home another run in the seventh before Urena got involved again by clearing the bases with a three-run double in the ninth. Urena and Fuente teamed up to share in four of the six Blue Jays hits. Barreto got on base four times with a hit and three walks. Ronniel Demorizi heard ball four twice while Leudy Garcia and Jean Almanzar heard it once. Juan Tejada and Javier Hernandez were both 0-for-4. Rodrigo Orozco was 0-for-1.

Osman Gutierrez went a couple of innings and held down the Rojos to just three hits while striking out one. Francisco Rios (3-2) pitched the next six innings and had two unearned runs on his line while limiting the Reds to three hits while punching out a pair. Yonardo Herdenez was roughed up for two runs on three hits in the ninth but did get one strike out.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Kellen Sweeney, Lansing — Snapped a 1-for-28 skid with his four-hit performance

2. Eric Brown, Vancouver — Has allowed just 30 hits in 40.2 innings and has a K-BB ratio of 36-6.

1. Sean Nolin, New Hampshire — Lowered his ERA to 2.09 and has a K-BB total of 70-14 in 64.2 innings.

Tuesday's Probable Starters...

GCL Blue Jays — Completion of suspended game & TBA vs. GCL Braves, 10:00 am ET.
DSL Blue Jays — TBA vs. DSL Braves, 10:30 am ET.
New Hampshire — Marcus Walden (5-9, 3.34) vs. Portland, 7:05 pm ET.
Vancouver — Scott Silverstein (0-0, 3.27) @ Everett, 10:05 pm ET.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 07:42 AM EDT.

Nolin & Brown Just Kellen 'Em | 53 comments | Create New Account

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John Northey - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#276543) #

That is an odd double-header for Melky Cabrera - game one in Dunedin, game two in New Hampshire. Since Knecht came in for Cabrera mid-game I suspect that was to allow him to get into both games in one day. I suspect Cabrera will be back right after the break but who goes down and what if he is given a suspension for 100 games? Right now I'd think the Jays would send Todd Redmond back down and use whoever for the 5th starter slot, hoping that Happ is ready by then - the 18th should be his next rehab start, putting him in line for that 5th starter slot. If he isn't ready for the 23rd then they could do a 'Johnny Wholestaff' for a game and shoot for the 28th or August 2nd.

Cutting down the pen will be hard when it hits though. ERA's in the pen now are 0.00-1.71-1.94-1.94-2.76-2.95-3.10 Loup has the lowest K/9 at 6.4 but also the lowest BB/9 at 1.2. The highest K/9 is Delabar at 12.4 but he also has the highest BB/9 at 4.9. Cecil is the only other one over 3 BB/9 (3.3) but he also has 10.7 K/9 so that helps. Wagner is the only one over 0.8 HR/9 (he is at 1.0) and he isn't bad either. If AA doesn't use some of that depth to do a trade I think we'll all be disappointed. Wagner right now has to be the one demoted I think but geez is that harsh given how well he has pitched. I think I'd rather go to a 4 man staff and do a 'wholestaff' each time the 5th slot is needed.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#276544) #

Btw, how much longer until Nolin gets a shot at AAA at least? Take away his first two starts after being sent back down to AA and you get 7starts with a 1.37 ERA 2 HR 5 BB 44 SO in 39 1/3 IP. That is just crazy good. His last 3 are even better - 19 2/3 IP 0 R 4 BB 23 SO in 19 2/3 IP. He can't be learning anything there now - it is like a ML pitcher being in short season ball. Good for building innings but nothing else.

FYI: His career so far...
Rookie: 1 game, 2 shutout innings
A-: 6 games, 6.05 ERA
A: 108 IP 3.49 ERA
A+: 86 1/3 IP 2.19 ERA
AA: 79 2/3 IP 1.92 ERA
Majors: 1 1/3 IP 6 R - I suspect a bit overwhelmed and not ready yet for the pressure

Put him in AAA until September, then call him up if there is an open slot anywhere in the rotation and see what happens. The kid needs pushing. The ML start was not the worst idea, but AA is a waste of time now. Move him up to AAA.

Gerry - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#276546) #

Dunedin game 1 was a game that was suspended Sunday. Melky did not play in Dunedin and New Hampshire on the same day.

85bluejay - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#276547) #

off topic, but some sanity returns - I was thinking what insanity when I read that the Jays were one of the front runners for Matt Garza - heard AA on TSN radio - haven't spoken to any team about acquiring a starter, acknowledged that jays may be able to trade from BP strength , which I read as a strong possibility that a BP arm or 2 will go - said ability to get pick next year for Bickford non-signing strongly mitigated the sting of not signing him & seemed to indicate that if the pick wasn't protected Bickford would be signed, so I am inferring that it was about the money - I remember leading up to his 1st. draft in 2010, AA said the jays would take gambles on tough to sign draftees & were o.k with the fact that they'll win some/lose some. I don't think as some have suggested that the Jays will change their drafting philosophy - It will be years before we can properly assess whether that approach is a success or not - this FO may not even be around at that time.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#276549) #

I agree with 85bluejay. At the moment this team looks like it is more than 1 player away. Anyway we are in a big hole as of now for this year.

While some young players are doing well, Cecil, many others have to prove that they can produce in the ML. Lawrie has to get stay healthy and produce more for example.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#276551) #

A while back I suggested that an opposing GM might do well to seek Pillar and Nolin in a trade (eg, for a rental like Utley, back when the Jays seemed to have a better shot at contention). I'm guessing the market value of those two assets is edging upward, although they no doubt still lack the glamourous appeal of a Sanchez. In any event, one assumes that rentals are now out, and that AA will be seeking players who are controllable beyond 2013.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#276556) #

I don't think Sanchez and Osuna have the luster that Stroman and Nolin have. Stroman and Nolin are showing very strongly in AA, looking to move up to AAA soon and that means closer to the Majors. Sanchez and Osuna are still to far away. G.M.s are more interested in MLB, MLB-ready and near MLB-ready at this time of the Season.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#276559) #

I would like to see the jays trade the bullpen strength for some minor leaguers who then could be parlayed into a trade to get a 2bagger. This is where AA reinstates his Ninja status.

For starers, the Jays are going to probably activate Happ for Redmond. But what about Romero and Nolin? In one month, they will be ready if they do what they are doing. Rogers is not sitting. Neither is beurhle, Johnson or Dickey. So, what do they do? I don't see AA trading for another starter unless he trades one of these starters. All of thier value is low, so I can't see it happeing.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#276561) #

My advice to AA: buy low, sell high.

AA usually does a good job of this, with the Dickey trade arguably being an exception (while you could argue that AA sold high on d'Arnaud, it's hard to say the same about Syndergaard, who has been excellent of late). The Mets' GM certainly sold high on Dickey (and I say this as a fan of RA).

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#276562) #

But what about Romero and Nolin?

Nolin, at least, can spend some time at AAA. It would be nice to see a pitching prospect succeed there before showing up in Toronto.

Rogers is not sitting. But he might need a reduced workload - he's on pace for 122 innings, and hasn't been a full-time starter for a few years. I don't know what his endurance will be like going forward, nor what plans the Jays might have to protect his arm.

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#276564) #

Josh Johnson can probably make it through recallable waivers in August, so he's a potential Aug31 trade candidate (assuming he rebuilds some value). That might make Marcus Stroman and Nolin potential September callups without burning option years.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#276565) #

Nolin has now gone 15 starts in double A with an ERA under 2, and excellent walk, K and HR rates. It's time for him to be in Buffalo, at least for 5-7 starts.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#276566) #

1) agreed that Nolin should already be in AAA. It's starting to annoy me that the Jays seem so scared to put their top pitching prospects in AAA. They're not in vegas anymore. move them up. Sometimes I think it has something to do with promises made to the Bisons about team quality, but then I look at the Bisons and see that their crappy SP are the weakest part of their team. Nolin should move up pronto, and Stroman shouldn't be far behind.

2) If I'm AA, I'm a buyer at the deadline, just not for any half season rentals. Targets should be a frontline SP (or 2), and a decent starting 2B/3B (and maybe a C).

uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#276567) #

"Josh Johnson can probably make it through recallable waivers in August, so he's a potential Aug31 trade candidate (assuming he rebuilds some value). That might make Marcus Stroman and Nolin potential September callups without burning option years."

Doubt he would make it through. His salary is nowhere near big enough to be not worth a gamble by some contender. He'll only have $4 mil or so left on his deal by the deadline.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#276568) #

I was wondering to myself if Lawrie's move to 2B might have anything to do with Andy Burns.

Burns obviously destroyed A+ this year, but then got off to a rough start in AA (first 10gms .519ops) but has picked it back up since then (last 10gms .793ops...and if my calcs are correct he's at .978 over his last 5), and as an ex-SS apparently he's good defensively at 3B, and he's got a good all around skillset including good patience, power, and speed.

I wonder if they're considering a rushed promotion for Burns.

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#276569) #

Burns is likely a year or two away. Why not move Lawrie in ST? They must either have a trade target in mind, or want to move Bautista to 3B and Pillar or Davis to outfield.

Or they just haven't got a clue.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#276570) #

Anything's possible, but has AA pushed any prospect that hard & fast? Even if Burns continues his hot streak, and has no setbacks, you'd expect him to spend the rest of this year at AA, then spend half of 2014 at AAA. Which would allow for a somewhat more sensible offseason/spring training position change for Lawrie.

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#276571) #

So you must owe me a coke or something?

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#276572) #

And when we're not complaining about rushing pitchers through the upper minors, we're complaining about not moving them fast enough.

Just a though, but if Stroman/Nolin are the subject of trade discussions, you'd probably like to keep them where they are dominating rather than challenge them with a promotion. Let's wait until August to see if they head to AAA.

(There's also the playoff situation to consider, not sure if either NH or Buffalo are in contention.)

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#276573) #

It's 30+ degrees in the Little Apple today. Virtual cokes for everyone.

And yes, promoting Andy Burns would be strange. He's had half a season in Dunedin that was very good, and that is about it for his minor league career. He's 23 years old and if he hits in New Hampshire for the rest of the year, he will be a decent prospect.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#276575) #

And when we're not complaining about rushing pitchers through the upper minors, we're complaining about not moving them fast enough.

AA's management style this year has been jumpy. Nolin and Romero given inappropriately early major leagues starts (Nolin after 5 or so double A starts; Romero 1+ years of struggles and a month out of game situations); Lawrie brought up after a short injury rehab in April; Lawrie moved hastily to second base after 2nd injury rehab.

What I look for is a steady hand on the tiller. When a player has shown that he has recovered/mastered a level, move him up.

Nigel - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#276576) #

While I agree that the MLB promotion decision making has been jumpy, I think the minor league promotions this year have been measured and merited (a player has shown sustained mastery of a level). I can only think of two, maybe three, players whose performance currently appears to merit a promotion - Nolin to AAA, Ybarra to AA and you could make the case that Dawson is pitching at a level too low for him in Bluefield (whether the next step is Vancouver or Lansing is really a coin flip to me) although he has a much smaller sample size from which to work. Stroman seems a step behind Nolin at AA and I measure that on his pitch efficiency. Stroman has run some high pitch counts that have resulted in 5 and 6 inning stints (not terrible by any means, but this does suggest some room for improvement to me).

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#276578) #

The nice thing is that neither Nolin nor Romero appears to have suffered any lasting effects from their brief meltdowns in the majors in 2013. Romero seems to be finding himself (although I believe that performing in the big leagues will be significantly more of a challenge for him than righting the ship in Buffalo, as AL hitters are going to battle and force him to stay in the strike zone during long PAs and taxing situations - losing his concentration or confidence for a run or two of batters every start won't cut it).

Nolin has continued his dominance of minor-league hitters. It would be interesting to read some current scouting reports on him. What is his likely ceiling? #3, 4, 5? Does he have enough stuff to be an above-average starter? Might the weighted ball program help him gain an extra edge in the majors?

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#276579) #

Baseball Prospectus had a write-up on Nolin this morning, calling him a sure-bet, quality number 4 starter.

They also had an extensive write-up on Franklin Barreto yesterday. I don't have a subscription to BP (only BA and ESPN for me) so if anyone (ramone?) wants to post a few exerpts, it would be greatly appreciated.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#276580) #

It's a very positive report on Barreto (I've been high on him since the signing):

- Very quick hands at the plate
- Advanced pitch recognition
- One of the toughest outs in the league
- Drives the ball to all fields, has some pop despite 0 HR
- Plus runner but unrefined at stealing bases
- Defensively: decent range, strong arm that can lack accuracy, footwork needs work, some scouts see a switch to CF

John Northey - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#276581) #

I suspect Nolin needed the butt kicking he got in the majors as the minors have proven too easy as he gets better at each level (his ERA is lowest in AA, next lowest in A+ and so on). All players need to get through a challenge or two in the minors or they'll have troubles when they hit issues in the majors. Nolin getting hit hard, then having some issues his first two starts in AA after that before going into super-dominance level suggests he did learn something.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#276582) #

I don't agree with that at all, John. Nolin was dominant before the premature call-up (for 5 starts) and was dominant afterwards. In this case, a poor (and short-lived) developmental decision hasn't come back to bite them. Unfortunately, there have been a couple of other decisions which have not worked out well.

Management also sets a tone- in this case, it has not been a good one.

Thomas - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#276583) #

I don't either. I'm not sure why you believe players will certainly "have troubles when they hit issues in the majors" if they haven't experienced a rough stretch before. Players will undoubtedly experience adversity at some point in the majors, but I don't think their ability to overcome those challenges has any correlation to whether they have experienced problems before.

John, by that logic shouldn't teams promote prospects who are dominating A-ball to Triple-A all the time in order for them to get a (possible) butt kicking before they reach the majors?

Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 16 2013 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#276584) #

It still strikes me as a bit results-oriented to say that the Nolin callup was clearly premature or wrong. It was a desperate measure for sure, but one unlucky inning and one resultant nervous breakdown aren't proof positive.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#276585) #

I don't know if the call-ups this year were desperation or "stupid think" or both. With Buffalo as our AAA stop, calling up Pitchers from AA is ridiculous beyond measure. Calling up Nolin was (pause) stupid.

Lawrie had next to no Spring Training and a minutely small time to 'regain his stroke'. Calling him up before 80 at bats was abuse, nothing more, nothing less. After his latest injury and switch to 2B, any call up before 80+ ABs was unexplainable.

Romero was sent to the Minors to relearn "stuff" and all he got was tweaks by incompetent Staff. Any recall before August was unwise and they did it any - criminally stupid. Any call-up now before September 1 is another waste of time.

Two years of disaster seasons and the GM is not bring called into question is wrong.

smcs - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#276587) #

Sean Nolin was called up mostly because of his success at AA, but also because of the previous success of Henderson Alvarez (who never went back down) and Drew Hutchison (who got injured). If either had flopped as hard as Nolin did, I'd bet they wouldn't have called up Nolin.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#276588) #

Actually, I've read in multiple places from multiple coaches that they WANT players to hit bumps on the road before the majors because often it is the only way to get them to listen to coaches. For example, if a guy is succeeding in A ball and AA via throwing certain pitches the guys at that level have never seen then that's great if he wants to stay at that level but in the majors he would get his butt handed back to him because ML hitters have seen that pitch 1000 times and know how to deal with it. I think I recall AA saying something to that effect a year or two ago. Nolin struggling his first two starts back suggests he was adapting something into his pitching after that extremely brief promotion. The crazy good results since (1.37 ERA) suggest it is working extremely well down there and he desperately needs a new challenge.

As to promotions from AA, that is an extremely common practice and doesn't always 'blow up' as some here seem to think. But lets check a few pitchers to see what was done with them. The top few Jay pitchers in WAR for example. Listing total games at each level.
Dave Stieb: 12 games in A+, 7 in AAA, majors to stay
Roy Halladay: 10 in rookie, 27 in A+, 7 in AA, 43 in AAA then up for a year+ before the big crash and rebuild.
Jimmy Key: 5 rookie, 9 A, 14 AA, 16 AAA, then year in pen in majors then all-star
Pat Hentgen: 4 years in A or lower, 28 in AA, 35 in AAA then here to stay (long man, then 19 game winner)
Jim Clancy: 43 in AA, 0 in AAA, back of rotation first 3 years in bigs before breaking out (could've used more time but expansion team so no one cared)
Juan Guzman: 3 years low levels, over 100 games mainly in relief in AA, 26 games 11 starts in AAA then a 142 and 154 ERA+ in majors first 2 years.
Roger Clemens: 4 games A ball, 7 AA, 7 AAA, superstar

Wow, a guy who was here for just 2 years is #7 in career WAR as a Jay. So what do I see? No AAA time was Clancy, small was Clemens/Stieb/Key, significant (full year worth) for Hentgen & Guzman, tons of time for Halladay (year and a half worth). Seems a little time in AAA is good for top starters but too much time can become an issue or suggests something needs work. A better study would hit 100's of pitchers but I don't have the time or energy for that right now.

My quick look suggests some AAA time is useful but not too much. If a guy shows he can deal with it in AAA then he is ready, if not then he isn't ready. Nolin really, really needs some AAA time now and it would've been good to push him to AAA and see if he sunk or swam before that emergency start in the majors.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#276589) #

I don't understand the obsession with sending Nolin to AAA. Lots of players go straight from AA to the majors. AAA isn't always a logical stop along the way.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#276590) #

My disagreement with the early promotions of pitchers has nothing to do with the results in a particular case. If a pitcher is absolutely dominating a level, then by all means move him up a level. Roger Clemens is a textbook example. Drafted out of the U of Texas, he's sent to the FSL where in 4 starts/29 innings, he has an ERA under 1.5 with 0 home runs, 0 walks and 36 Ks. The Red Sox rightly decide that he has nothing more to learn and send him to double A for 7 starts, where he pretty much replicates his line except that he walks 12 in 51 innings. They then give him 7 International League starts where he is pretty much the same and then send him to the Show.

Very few pitchers have the promise that Roger Clemens did. Sean Nolin certainly doesn't. 15 high minors starts ought to be pretty much a minimum, and in the ordinary case you want more than that. Hutchison and Alvarez aren't exactly walking testaments to the virtues of shorter apprenticeships.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#276592) #

And then there is Jose Fernandez. Pitches only 4 innings in short season ball after being drafted. His first full pro season is split between Low and High A. Bypasses both AA and AAA and makes the Marlins out of ST at age 20. His 2.75 ERA is 8th in the NL>

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#276594) #

It worked in 2013. Still, it was a very poor decision by the Marlins on so many levels. The difference between the approach of the Marlins in Fernandes' case and the Rays' approach with their young pitchers is pretty stark. You can choose which one you think is likely to work out over time with more young pitchers. I know what my answer is.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#276599) #

Agreed Mike - if you want to write a book on how to work with pitchers I'd go to Tampa Bay. Their ML rotation has been crazy stable in season, then shifts (budget) in the winter and stable again the next year. This suggests they are very careful about promotions and guys are only put into the ML rotation when ready. Their in-home rotation members...
Jeremy Hellickson: Rk: 6 IP, A-: 78 IP, A: 111 IP, A+: 78 IP, AA: 132, AAA: 175 IP, ML: August call-up, given 1 A+ start for work at end of August and majors ever since
Matt Moore: Rk: 75 IP, A: 123, A+: 145, AA: 102, AAA: 53 IP (1.37 ERA), then majors to stay with 'wow' playoff appearance and signed until 2019.
Alex Cobb: climbed a level a year, full year in each except AAA when he was promoted, 9 good starts, sent down for 8 starts then up ever since
David Price: One partial year in minors - drafted in 2007 signed late, A+ to start 2008 (6 starts, 1.82 ERA), AA (4 starts), AAA (8 starts) ML (14 IP), back to AAA for 8 starts and ML ever since.
Chris Archer: Cleveland and Cubs fooled around, then TB did 25 games in AA, 2 in AAA to start, gave ML shot to him, 10 in AAA this year now here to stay (shutout his last game) - part of Garza trade. Earlier was part of a trade for Mark DeRosa (DeRosa only guy one way, Archer part of group of guys the other).

That is a sweet rotation and different approaches for each pitcher. Obviously they watch for certain things and promote when ready. They'll go super-fast (Price) or go slow and steady (Cobb). They also take messes and clean them up (see Archer - his wildness was pretty bad in the minors but in ML is below 4 per 9 IP and his shutout had 0 walks vs 8 K's).

Why other clubs aren't raiding Tampa's front office and coaching staff is beyond me.

Thomas - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#276609) #

For example, if a guy is succeeding in A ball and AA via throwing certain pitches the guys at that level have never seen then that's great if he wants to stay at that level but in the majors he would get his butt handed back to him because ML hitters have seen that pitch 1000 times and know how to deal with it.

I don’t dispute this, but I question why this adjustment needs to come in the form of a butt-kicking, as you put it, as opposed to the coaching staff ensuring that the player work on mixing and developing all of his pitches (as opposed to say relying on an advanced breaking ball and not further refining his fastball control) and the pitcher ensuring he remains receptive to coaching advice and the purpose of minor league development rather than wrapped up in putting up eye-popping numbers or falling into bad habits.

Maybe a butt kicking can help achieve those ends or reinforce the importance of that, but I still don’t really see why you believe it’s necessary and why a failure to have a butt kicking means a player will have troubles when he has issues in the majors

rfan8 - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#276611) #

I think most people learn more from their mistakes than their successes simply because they reflect on them more.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#276616) #

Well, I've known some high end athletes and they can easily become 'this is what works for me and I'm doing well so screw you'. It is pretty much the way an athlete will always think. If doing ABC gets you a lot of success then you keep doing ABC until it doesn't work. Think about driving as an example - if you have driven at 120 km/hr on the 401 for 20 years without getting a speeding ticket you won't think twice about doing that even if you hear of others getting tickets. It isn't until you are caught that you go 'oh crap' and slow down. Or you eat 2 big macs a day and are perfectly fine until that heart attack hits at 50 and you ignored everyone saying 'that is dumb' because you seemed to be OK.

Ask any coach and they'll repeat it. An athlete who has success doing something 'wrong' (ie: has a flat slider lets say) will keep doing it as long as it works (in low A you'd probably be fine but in AA you'd get pounded). The coach can talk until he is blue in the face and the kid might be perfectly coachable otherwise but if that slider gets guys out for him all throughout his career he won't adjust it just because a coach says to as he'd fear his ERA of 2 will jump, especially if doing those adjustments results in a bad result at first (as it would while he is learning it). But if the kid get hit around using his flat slider then suddenly the coaches words mean more and he'll listen closer and try it longer.

In Nolin's first 3 starts he had a crazy low 1.15 ERA (15 IP) and probably thought all was well. But underneath he had a 27% LD rate which is high. After two butt kickings after his ML debut he knocked that down to 22% (the ML league average). Don' t know if there was an adjustment, but I suspect there was. Sometimes it does take a 'oh crap that won't work up there' lesson for guys to adjust.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#276623) #

Fair enough, Mike. I guess as a general policy there's something to be said for a strict minimum starts requirement, though I do think there's a minority of pitchers who are simply wasting their time in the minors and Nolin might be one of them. If you have a repeatable delivery and enough stuff, and minor-league hitters clearly aren't forcing you to adjust to anything, then what's the point? One of my favorite players to watch this year has been a non-prospect lefty on the White Sox who started 9 games at AA last year and got called up for good. (Maybe logic just doesn't apply to the White Sox.)

hypobole - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#276629) #

"It worked in 2013. Still, it was a very poor decision by the Marlins on so many levels. The difference between the approach of the Marlins in Fernandes' case and the Rays' approach with their young pitchers is pretty stark. You can choose which one you think is likely to work out over time with more young pitchers. I know what my answer is."

Mike, it doesn't matter why the Marlins did it, or what the future ramifications are. Whether or not he hits free agency at 26 is immaterial to the question of whether pitchers need to be promoted a step at a time. They saw the kid was ready for the majors and promoted him 3 levels and he is succeeding. Hence not all pitchers need to pitch at all levels.

With the Rays, team control has greater value than for almost anyone else and they will keep kids in the minors longer than almost any other team. Smart policy.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 17 2013 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#276631) #

hypobole - I think the Rays like to keep players down until they are likely to be ML average quality or better. Once they hit that level they are valuable to the Rays and the marginal gains for an extra year in AAA aren't worth it to them as calling up a kid means they can trade someone making more than the minimum.

As to quick callups - generally if someone is going to be a HOF quality or Cy Young/MVP quality then odds are they'll spend very little time in the minors, namely less than it takes to qualify for the rule 5 draft. Obvious exceptions are guys like Wade Boggs (2 years in AA, 2 in AAA due to lack of power at a power position) and Phil Niekro (5 years in minors, knuckleballer) but that was due to their not being the norm for their positions. Far more common is guys like Dave Stieb (19 starts then ML'er) and David Price (27 starts) for superstars.

A quick check of the WAR leaders for pitchers you get...
Felix Hernandez: 306 IP in minors
Chris Sale: 10 1/3 IP in minors (!)
Clay Buchholz: 286 IP before first callup, 443 before up for good.
Max Scherzer: 144 IP
Bartolo Colon: 328 IP
Iwakuma: Japanese league then ML
Hiroki Kuroda: same
Yu Darvish: see above
Jose Quintana: 300 IP
Derek Holland: 285 IP

So for the 7 non-Japanese ones you get an average of 259 IP in the minors. Not a heck of a lot.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#276635) #

hypobole, I wasn't suggesting that every single starting pitcher who is brought up out of A ball fails. It's just that 95% of them do. Clubs are terrible at identifying those who will succeed, and so that is why intelligent clubs try extremely rarely if at all. Chris Sale was a different case than Fernandez. He did his apprenticeship in the major league bullpen, with 70 relief appearances before he was put in the rotation. It's not what I would do, but it is different from sticking a pitcher in the rotation out of A ball.

It is different for position players (and even for relievers). Clubs are better at identifying those who clearly have it.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#276640) #

I don't think there is any question that few pitchers are in a position to leap from A ball to the majors and succeed and/or develop optimally. What I question is the assumption that prospects are always, or nearly always, being rushed if they skip AAA. It seems to me that for a not-insignificant percentage of high-achieving prospects who have already logged a substantial amount of time in the minors, AAA experience probably doesn't add much to their development. For others, AAA experience may prove to be very valuable. Of course, the optimal progression will depend on multiple variables, including the player's ability and makeup, and the quality of coaching at AA, AAA and in the majors.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#276641) #

In the particular case of Nolin, if the club decided that he was ready for a big-league starting role after 15 double A starts, my disagreement would be pretty muted. I personally would prefer if he was sent to triple A because I just think that it is better for him to have another 7 starts or so at a more advanced level.

This all might be resolved if deadline deals are made.

John Northey - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#276643) #

Of course another variable is Rogers. They invested in the team during the winter and have seen that fans are interested in coming out and watching if the team is thought to be doing well (ie: the hype sold even if the team is still sub 500). They might not want to have the perception change by dealing any vets away at this point. Of course, the only ones worth anything are relievers probably along with Bautista, Encarnacion and Reyes none of whom the Jays should deal unless it was a bizarre deal that was extremely in the Jays favour.

No question though the pen is a massive area of depth and the Jays should find someone in contention who needs a reliever or 3. Heck, they could deal Janssen, Cecil, Oliver and Delabar and the pen would probably still be solid with Loup, Perez, Wagner, McGowan (probably made the closer), Lincoln, Stilson, Carreno and any guys who get healthy (Santos, Drabek, etc).

Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#276644) #

The club leader in fWAR is (surprisingly) Colby Rasmus. He's obviously not Mike Trout or even Austin Jackson, but he is a championship-quality ballplayer. It hurts my brain when people lump him in with Arencibia because both strike out a lot and hit home runs.

smcs - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#276645) #

To be fair, they had fairly similar slash stats last year, but Arencibia has fallen off a cliff, and Rasmus has improved by more than 100 OPS points.

CeeBee - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#276646) #

Rasmus is quietly putting together an "All-Star" type year. Lucky thing too, what with Gose going the wrong dirction. Seems to me a few months ago some folks were wanting to trade Rasmus and anoint Gose as the savior. I wonder if Arencibia can likewise find some pixie dust, or at least a visit from the tooth fairy or some other good kind of magic.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#276647) #

Over his career, Rasmus has been a good fielder, a good baserunner and has drawn his share of walks. Other than that, he is very similar to Arencibia.

John Northey - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#276648) #

Have JPA do the weighted ball program and see if it ups his power. Also get his eyes tested and maybe laser treatment to push the sight up more - perhaps he has trouble seeing the edges of the strike zone?

Hmm... y'know, I wonder if that program would help the everyday players as well. Logically strengthening your arms should help power and at the very least help the throwing arm.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 18 2013 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#276654) #

I'm sure Rasmus's agent is pleased, as his client's salary is due to increase significantly in arbitration. It will be interesting to see whether the Jays try to negotiate a one-year deal after exchanging arb figures, or try for something longer-term (maybe an Encarnacion-type contract?). No doubt Rasmus's agent will be mindful of BJ Upton's recent deal (plus MLB inflation) when advising Colby of his options over the next couple of years.

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