Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Smith & Leyland Deliver

Rain kept Buffalo, New Hampshire and Bluefield off the field. Elsewhere the affiliates were 2-2. Dwight Smith hit a two run go-ahead home run in the seventh to pace Lansing to a 4-3 win. Jordan Leyland had 4 RBI's in Vancouver's 8-4 win. Dunedin were shutout despite Melky Cabrera being in the lineup. The GCL Jays were also shut out despite having one hitter with four hits and another with three.

Buffalo at Lehigh Valley - postponed

New Hampshire at Reading - postponed

Dunedin 0 St Lucie 3

Kyle Drabek started and pitched 2 shutout innings, he walked one, hit a batter and had one K. Scott Copeland followed and was charged with all 3 runs but two were unearned off two Gustavo Pierre errors.

Melky Cabrera was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts. Michael Crouse had three hits. In total the Jays had six hits.

Peoria 3 Lansing 4

Lansing took a 2-0 lead in the sixth, both runs scored on errors by Peoria. The lead was shortlived, Peoria scored 3 in the top of the seventh. Two runs came off starter Ben White and he left with a runner on second. Tucker Donahue wild pitched the runner to third setting up the go-ahead sac fly.

In the bottom of the seventh, with two outs, Emilio Guerrero walked and Dwight Smith followed with a two run home run. From there Peoria went six up, six down. Smith was 2-4, the only multi-hit batter. White was charged with 3 runs in 6.1 innings.

Boise 4 Vancouver 8

Vancouver scored 2 in the first and the second to jump out to a 4-0 lead. Jordan Leyland doubled in the first run and that was followed by a sac fly to score two in the first inning. In the second Christian Vasquez doubled in a run and he scored on a double play. After Boise had cut the lead to 4-2 in the seventh Vancouver scored 4. Leyland's 3 RBI double made it 4 RBI's for him. Boise scored 2 unearned runs in the ninth.

Lefty Kyle Anderson started and pitched five shutout innings. Joe Spano and Jonathan Kountis each gave up 2 runs.

Bluefield at Burlington - doubleheader rained out

The first game was supposed to be the continuation of a game suspended on Wednesday with Bluefield leading 1-0 after 4 innings. Yesterday's game was rained out. The two teams played 4 innings of a scheduled 3 game set.

GCL Yankees 7 GCL Blue Jays 1

The Jays outhit the Yankees 12-10 but came up way short on the scoreboard. The Jays did make 3 errors leading to 3 unearned runs. There was a long rain delay after two innings so starter Jesus Tinoco just went the first two innings. He gave up one run, took the loss, but had 4 strikeouts. 2013 draftees Daniel Leitz, Conner Greene, Sean Ratcliffe and Corey Gorman followed. Ratcliffe is from Ajax Ontario and this was his professional debut.

Andres Sotillo, 19 year old Venezuelan catcher, led the Jays with 4 hits. That pushed his BA over 300, he was over 300 in the DSL last season too. 18 year old Andrew Florides went 3-4.

3 Stars

#3 - Andres Sotillo

#2 - Jordan Leyland

#1 - Dwight Smith

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Friday, July 12 2013 @ 11:20 PM EDT.

Smith & Leyland Deliver | 12 comments | Create New Account

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92-93 - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#276428) #

JA Happ started this morning in the GCL, giving up 4 hits & 0 BBs (0 Ks) over 3 innings. If he pitches well on Tuesday the 18th, perhaps he can be the 5th man in the rotation coming out of the break, making the start on the 23rd vs. the Dodgers. Probably too ambitious though, July 28th vs. HOU is more likely.

Gerry - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#276432) #

Or maybe a start in August after Johnson is traded?

finch - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#276447) #

Gerry, what type of prospects could the Jays receive for JJ? Maybe 1 prospect in the top 50 and 1 within the top 100? Or is that too much?

I think it would be wiser to hold on and qualify for arbitration in order to get an additional draft pick next year. Unless the Jays can acquire a competitive pick from another team plus a top prospect.

Paul D - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#276449) #

Finch, how much money do you think JJ is going to get? I'm not sure that he's worth $13 million a year.

whiterasta80 - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#276453) #

He isn't worth 13 million per year, but he might be worth 13 million for one year.

As for what we get. I doubt it is more then a B+ with a C prospect.

PeterG - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#276455) #

no way the Jays qualify him......he's gone at the deadline as is Oliver.

I doubt any team would take Buerhle due to his contract

with an excess of good relievers.....and Stilson waiting, this would be a good time to deal Janssen

Gerry - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#276457) #

Re; Johnson, the first question is what do you think will happen in the off-season? If you think he will come back through the qualifying offer/arbitration process then you might hang on to him.

But why would Johnson do that? The only reason is if his value is seriously impaired. But I think someone will give him a multi-year contract. I think Johnson rates higher than Edwin Jackson. Yes, Johnson's 2013 is not great but he has pitched better recently and unless he blows up in the next month he will carry a good reputation into 2014. Front offices will discount his April/May and say look his ERA once he came back was 2 or 3 something, that's worth paying for.

Jackson got a 4 year $52 million dollar contract. Pitching is always in demand. Who are the 2014 free-agents? Roy Halladay, Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Jason Hammel, Tim Hudson, Dan Haren and a few others. Johnson could be the premier guy in that class. I do not see Johnson accepting a qualifying offer.

So what gets you the most value for Johnson? A pick in 2014 draft at approx number 33 or whatever someone offers you for him now. Given the track record of drafted players drafted in the 30's I would prefer a player who has proven he is major league ready. I would try and get a major league ready starter back for Johnson, someone in AAA or AA who could be major league ready next year or by 2015.

Scott Feldman brought back 2 major league relievers, one maybe a starter. Johnson should bring back more than that. At one point it was rumoured that Tyler Skaggs might have been traded for Matt Garza, I would look for a return like that.

scottt - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#276458) #

What the Jays need is financial flexibility. I'd offer Buehrle for nothing, or even someone like Boni.

For JJ, I'd be surprised if the Jays are offered a top prospect. JJ's not having a great year so far.
It doesn't matter if he gets a 4 year contract or not, the taker would have no compensation.
If he has a good second half his value will rise but that's too late for the trade deadline.

John Northey - Saturday, July 13 2013 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#276460) #

I think Johnson needs a few good starts before someone offers anything of real value. In 40 2/3 IP since returning he has a 3.54 ERA 13 BB 41 SO 5 HR. That is a good start, but a few more would push him up over the top I suspect. If he keeps that up for the rest of the year he'll be getting that 3-5 year deal this winter. If he does better (sub 3 ERA) in the 2nd half then who knows.

Now, doing that here could push the Jays to 90 wins, but will that be enough? Would that help the Jays marketing team for 2014 enough to up the revenue to justify losing him for a 33rd overall pick? What if he slumps in August and can't get a multi-year deal and comes back? Is that a bad thing? Lots of variables.

Now, how have 31st-35th overall picks done? That is what the Jays would likely get for him. Checking bWAR for each pick.
31: Greg Maddux (107), Jarrod Washburn (28.5), then next best is a 5.2 WAR. 32% reached the majors (16 of 49)
32: Dave Magadan (21.1), Lee Lacy (20.1), 3 guys in the 10-12 range. 51% reached the majors (25 of 49)
33: None cracked 20, Mike Gallego (compensation for Free Agent Jim Essian) is the best of 4 guys in the teens plus a few names that bring back memories (Floyd Youmans, Jeff Mathis, Dustin McGowan). 19 of 49 reached.
34: Mark Gubicza (38 - compensation for losing Darrell Porter), 2 in the teens, 24 of 49 reached.
35: Johnny Damon (56), Mark Langston (51 - compensation for losing Bill Stein), Aaron Rowand (21), 0 in the teens, 26 of 49 reached.

So picks 31-35 have produced 1 inner circle HOF'er, 2 HOVG guys with a 3rd on the edge, 4 more in the 20's, 9 more in the 10-19 range. 110 of 245 reached the majors (45%). Odds of a great player then is 4/245 1.6%, odds of a very useful one (10+) is 17/245 = 7%. So if a prospect has better than a 2% shot at being great and a 7% shot at being a solid ML'er then might as well do the trade.

Btw, interesting to see that two of the better players in this group were compensation picks, of course many picks in this range are compensation picks from the old days.

finch - Sunday, July 14 2013 @ 04:30 AM EDT (#276463) #

Paul D...if I was a GM, Josh Johnson would be worth, at this point, 40 million over 4 years. To ANOTHER actual GM, I think he's worth 64 over 4 years at 16 per. He has a great track record and he's been decent as of late.

Would I qualify him at 14 million? HELL YES!! If he accepts great because you have another year of a quality pitcher trying to prove his worth. If he doesn't, ill gladly accept the comp pic and hope for the other comp picks we got in 2010 (Sanchez, Syndergaard, and Asher W) and not for the ones in 2011 (Jacob Anderson, Musgrove, Comer, Dwight Smith).

If we lose Josh Johnson as a FA, do we spend money to get Tim Lincecum?

Richard S.S. - Sunday, July 14 2013 @ 05:10 AM EDT (#276466) #

Keep Johnson, acquire Lincecum. Tell them, "One of you is my Ace".

JB21 - Sunday, July 14 2013 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#276470) #

I'm sure TImmy's #'s will be positively affected going from AT&T/NL West to Skydome/AL East.

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