Josh Johnson and the Jays take on strikeout machine Max Scherzer, who's having the season of his life. Scherzer has finally figured out a way to retire the lefties with whom opposing managers inundate him – he's holding LH batters to .198/.249/.344. He's also riding a .250 BABIP (career: .306). Part luck, part pitchmaking, part confidence, call it what you will. This won't be an easy assignment.
Josh Johnson and the Jays take on strikeout machine Max Scherzer, who's having the season of his life. Scherzer has finally figured out a way to retire the lefties with whom opposing managers inundate him – he's holding LH batters to .198/.249/.344. He's also riding a .250 BABIP (career: .306). Part luck, part pitchmaking, part confidence, call it what you will. This won't be an easy assignment.
Personally, I'd be choosing between 3 guys, all of whom are current members of the bullpen - Cecil, Perez, and McGowan. Cecil could probably go 45 pitches if you let him know today that's the plan - one more session of 15-30 pitches before Sunday and then you try and get 3 out of him. Perez is already good to go for 45-60, but as Magpie has pointed out, his stuff isn't ideal for a starter long-term. McGowan threw 32 pitches on Sunday, so if you gave him a similar outing tonight or tomorrow you could probably squeeze 3-4 innings out of him on Sunday. At this point I'm not sure there's much to lose in terms of starting McGowan if he's going to effectively be the team's 8th RP who can't be sent down because of a lack of options and can't be used in high leverage situations frequently because of the stress.
It's a nice night, so I'll see y'all at the Dome.
I agree with this. That McGowan has made it back to the majors after all his setbacks is commendable. But I'm not a big fan of coddling him, having him pitch an inning every few days since this doesn't seem to be building up to more frequent usage (though being the #8 man may be what is limiting his playing time more than anything) or higher leverage usage (though understandably, he is low man on the totem pole given the performances this year).
At this point the organization has to find out if McGowan can pitch without breaking. If he breaks he breaks, and that will probably be the end of it. But better to find out, both for himself and the organization. And since he has a deeper repertoire than the rest of his bullpen cronies, let's see if he can go 4 or 5. That would certainly be sufficient.
yup.
Boni just gifted Max Scherzer the lead. nice.
I blame Gibbons and/or AA. How they keep starting Bonifacio is completely beyond me. He has been the worst player in baseball this year.
If you didn't have alternate sources of information and had only Pat Tabler to rely on, you'd get very distorted view of reality.
Lind is a lefty power hitter than you can slot in between Bautista and Encarnacion. I suppose you could, but I don't know that Gibbons has done that even once this year.
Dirks is a good contact hitter to complement the big boppers on the Tigers, which include Austin Jackson (4 HR in 200 AB) and Victor Martinez (6 HR in 300 AB). Dirks, the good contact hitter, is hitting .245 with an OPS+ of 74.
7) MIN .322
8) BAL .321
9) TEX .321
10) TOR .314
Infield defense is fixed just by starting Lawrie and Kawasaki.
The Starting Pitching, though, is a massive concern. Which is a surprise.
I'm sorry, but the infield defense isn't fixed by starting Lawrie and Kawasaki. I agree that Lawrie is a significantly above average defensive 3B but Kawasaki appears to have average range at best and isn't a natural 2B I think you will still be starting 3 below average defenders on any given night in the infield.
Kawasaki certainly doesn't have much experience at 2B, but I'd argue that no one is really a natural second baseman. Guys who end up at 2B in the majors typically played shortstop their whole lives and only moved to 2B because of their limitations. I imagine there are some second basemen who were second basemen from a young age, but I can't believe there are many.
Case in point, Omar Infante.
Also: Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Aaron Hill, Darwin Barney, Brandon Phillips, Danny Espinosa. That's the main line, right there.
The other group of second basemen come from players moved from other positions (usually 3b, sometime lf) because it wasn't clear that they would hit enough for the spot. There's a smaller group who move back and forth between 2b and 3b as the orgnaization tries to figure out what they have (Chase Utley, Dan Uggla.)
In many ways it's a game of inches. Avila's wall-scraping homer and Arencibia's deep flyout in the second were a five-run swing. On the other hand, inches had nothing to do with the E4 in the second...
According to the Jays sight they have from picks 30-40 9 unsigned, 4 unsigned from 11-29, and 5 in the top 10 unsigned. One of those top 10 is Hollon who is signed, of the other 4 BlueBirdBanter has 2 listed as signed leaving #1 Bickford and #8 Kendall Graveman left.
BBB has listed picks #31/32/34 as not signing (medical reasons or fully committed to college). Also has two listed as 'unlikely sign' in #22 (Sam Tewes) and #30 Randy Tellez (a top 100 talent at 1B, strongly committed to college unless gets first round cash). The remaining are #11 Jacob Brentz, #17 Eric Lauer, #26 Tanner Cable, and 5 in the 30's who don't appear to be anything 'wow'.
So where to blow the $1 million? If that would get Tellez to sign then go for it I say. Brentz is a high 90's LHP, Lauer a high 80's LHP who is 'projectable' as he is 6'3" and 190 lbs. Tewes a RHP with 90's velocity and projectability thus desirable to sign but seems committed to college. If I was a pitcher offered $1 mil though I'd be signing - colleges are known for eating up pitchers arms with 140+ pitch games and the risk / reward with the cap system in place is just not worth delaying 2-3 years. Tellez though probably should go to college as a power hitter can improve their status and climb to a top 10 pick.
I would expect some payback by Verlander to Rasmus tonight. Rasmus has said if he is hit he will just take his base, it's part of the game.
"Cleats up" is the complaint you hear every time a clean slide injures someone.
For those unaware, Arencibia was on the Fan 590 this morning, and tweeted last night that he was going to rip into Zaun and Hayhurst. What I take away from it is that he's upset that he's being held to high standards by the team's analysts. If you like below average major leaguers calling out former players as below average, maybe it's worth a listen, otherwise use your valuable time more wisely.
Listening to this sounds like a punishment designed by the CIA to replace water-boarding.
If Gregg Zaun sees something he doesn’t like, he’ll bring it up on the Blue Jays telecasts — unafraid that he might not win any friends in the process.
Something that Zaun has often discussed is the play of Toronto’s catcher J.P. Arencibia, who has tremendous pop in his bat but takes flak for his batting average and his defence.
Zaun, a former Jays catcher, has been a critic of Arencibia’s play, but also believes that if the Jays want their young catcher to improve, they have to take certain steps to help him — like hiring a catching coach.
“How do you expect a guy to get any better if he doesn’t have anyone to work with?” asked Zaun. “They should add someone to the staff. John Gibbons was a catcher, but he’s the manager and he can’t be coaching the kid too. What they should do is promote Sal Fasano (the organization’s roving catching instructor). He’s a tremendous teacher of that position.
“Arencibia swings and misses too much, but he could be a great hitter, and he could be a really good catcher, but they don’t have anyone to teach him.”
Arencibia makes a few meaningless points.
Zaun and Hayhurst weren't good players.
It doesn't matter how good or bad Hayhurst, Zaun, or any other critic is or was at baseball. What counts is the truth and insight, or lack thereof, of the criticism itself. Arencibia never addresses that, except to say that it's "wrong", but not why it's wrong. These statements are nothing more than ad hominem attacks on Hayhurst and Zaun, and by implication, anyone else who dares criticize him.
No one respects Zaun because he used PEDs.
This might make sense if he said "Zaun's use of PEDs prevents me from playing the game well enough to avoid his criticisms in the following ways..." This is another ad hominem attack. It doesn't matter if Zaun used PEDs. Zaun could have had bionic implants that changed his reflexes, strength, and speed into something Peter Parker would envy, and it still wouldn't make any difference. What counts, again, is the truth and insight of the criticisms themselves. If they are untrue, it must be explained why.
Baseball is hard.
Since I doubt anyone has made the point that it's easy to play baseball, Arencibia is trying to counter an argument no one made in the first place. This is the fallacy of the straw man. No one I know of has said "Arencibia made mistakes that are inexcusable because baseball is easy." Perhaps he meant that it is impossible to do everything perfectly all the time because the game is difficult. We all learn when we're very young that we're not perfect, so it isn't necessary to refute that argument -- no serious person would make it, or entertain it if it were made.Since Arencibia didn't address the criticisms, and used the opportunity of the interview to launch into straw man arguments and ad hominem attacks, I must assume that Arencibia cannot refute the substance of what critics say about him. In fact, pointing out that the game is difficult is perhaps a suggestion that 'it's too hard for me to play the game well'. Is he saying he isn't a very good ball player?
In any case, it should be very easy for Hayhurst and Zaun to counter these attacks.Arencibia may have to explain his comments on PED cheats to Melky Cabrera.
The problem here is that even if J.P. isn't an egotistical nitwit who believes he's above criticism, he sure comes across as one. Gasoline on the fire and all that.
Catching is a position that often takes a while to develop - so yeah, it's a hard game and early days in his career. On the other side, Zaun's critiques (and even Buck and Morris have stepped in) are bang-on, and JPA is a very 1-dimensional guy. I fault the organization for not platooning him. And it would be great if they took Zaun's advice and made Fasano a major league catching coach for him.
I don't imagine it will change anything in the Jays' plans. The problem with trading him is that other teams are keenly aware of his weaknesses, so even the inflated power numbers may not get you much value. AA has made a move that will let him trade JPA if the right opportunity comes along. Will it? Dunno.
Some good tweets...
June 20th: TSN turning point of the game: Jp takes a walk (almost extinct) then tries to steal? Other team scrambles, scouting reports were way off!
Canada Day: 3rd star- Beer vendors making sure everyone was hydrated for that warm weather (drink safely); 2nd star- The parrot that made another appearance today on @Encadwin arm while he ran the bases today! #WhatABird; 1st star - The fans that made that atmosphere unreal to play in front of and those cheering us on at home! #Streaking
He is one of the best tweeters for the Jays but it is clear he stresses a lot about how people see him. A thick skin in needed when you are in the public eye, and JPA's seems a bit thin lately.
Clearly he was played WAAAAAAY too often in the first month and a half. 38 of 39 games is far too often for a catcher to be playing. Then 17 of 18 before finally getting a decent pattern (4-5 games in a row, full game off pattern) but by now his body has to be beaten up.
His stats...
First 38 games he played: 230/246/475
Next 17: 206/239/397
Since: 197/244/342
He has been increasing his walks but losing in batting average and power. While one can understand riding him hard early on with Blanco as your backup it doesn't work well for catchers when you ride them like that. In his first 21 games he hit 268/286/634 but games 22-38 he collapsed to 175/190/246. So driven hard for those first 21 (playing 21 of 22) he was great for power, but since he has hit 194/227/333 which is ugly. I suspect a DL stint would help heal his injuries to date but that isn't going to happen. More likely we have to wait until the ASB for him to get a real rest (4 days in a row). Given his aches and pains I'd say give him the game before and after the break to help fully recover.
A very good analysis of JPA's fundamental public-relations blunders is here:
http://taoofstieb.blogspot.ca/2013/07/some-candid-and-free-pr-advice-for-jp.html
Mike: Hello, Dave from North York, what's on your mind?
Dave: Isn't JP Arencibia the best catcher in the American League? That home run in the 4th inning to tie the score was a thing of beauty.
Mike: I don't know think JP is the best catcher in the American League, but yes, the home run was beautiful.
Jaystalk Friday night:
Mike: Hello, David from Willowdale, what's on your mind?
David: Isn't JP Arencibia the best catcher in the American League? He saved Mark Buehrle's butt with that block in the 6th inning.
Mike: I don't know, David. There was nobody on, and he also struck out 3 times.