The mighty Tigers. Tied for first with Cleveland. You can count on them to bolster their team at the trade deadline and win the division.

For now, they only have one scary left bat so coming at them with 4 righties could work well.
Their starting pitching have  been good. They start with a rookie named Alvarez in lieu of Sanchez who is on the DL.
Then we see Fister, Scherzer who is an early lead for the Cy Young with a 12-0 record and, lastly, Verlander.

Apart from the record, Scherzer is second in the league in Ks and Whip, still, he's received fantastic run support so far.

Encarnacion is bothered by sore hamstrings and a sore left wrist. DeRosa, who is barely good enough when he's healthy, is playing through a neck injury. Lind's sore back has tightened up and he now needs a few days off, if not a DL stint. I wish management would understand the importance of a regular sized bench; it's needed to manage guys' health the same way some people think 8 man bullpens are needed to protect pitchers' arms.

".... it's needed to manage guys' health the same way some people think 8 man bullpens are needed to protect pitchers' arms...."

Glad to see that you're now acknowledging the logic of the 8-man bullpen. Having extra hitters and pitchers does help to protect the health of those who would otherwise be excessively used.

In the case of the Jays, expanding the bench doesn't help much if it's filled primarily with fan-favorites like Kawasaki and Thole who aren't particularly good hitters. The real problem is the entire bottom third of the batting order. With the bases loaded yesterday and none out in a close game, not one of the three Jays hitters was able to get a runner home. Arencibia is regressing again -- he needs to be sorted out. The Jays can afford to carry an Izturis or similar at the bottom of the lineup, but they can't have so little production from the entire bottom third of the lineup.

While JPA is not hitting I have noticed that he is at least looking like he's trying to be more patient. Over the last 30 days he has a walk rate of just under 6%, which isn't great, but also isn't terrible either. If he could continue to mix in a walk and hit .250 with power he would be fine offensively for a catcher.

Lind's recurrent back spasms are very worrisome.  I would very much like to see Luis Jimenez here and Lind on the DL.  The temptation is to let Lind play through the back pain, but the historical record suggests that his production is severely affected.

It's Arencibia and  Bonifacio who fell to score with the bases loaded, not Thole (who was on third base) or Kawasaki, who was 1 for 2 in that game.

Kawasaki was a key contributor during the 11 win streak, but nobody is asking him to replace Lind a first.
If you have 3 guys that are day to day it makes sense to ask one to bite the bullet and go on the DL.
Especially an old backup utility player. 

Also, JPA is the fan favorite, not Thole.

I was wondering if the Jays would be better off letting Dickey hit and DH for Bonifacio, but that's probably a wash.

"In the case of the Jays, expanding the bench doesn't help much if it's filled primarily with fan-favorites like Kawasaki and Thole who aren't particularly good hitters."

FWIW, Kawasaki has a wRC+ of 87 this year, which is exactly where Melky sits. Against RHP, he's at 101; better than league average. Against LHP, yeah Kawasaki has a 31 wRC+. That is bad. But Gibbons "played the percentages" by pinch hitting Boni for Kawasaki. Boni vs LHP this year has a wRC+ of 12!! Dumb move by the manager with his misplaced faith in the worst hitter in the league. And Boni is no fan favorite.

"it makes sense to ask one to bite the bullet and go on the DL."

Players don't decide whether or not to go on the DL. The club decides.

An 8-man bullpen was useful in the beginning of the year when the starters never got out of the 5th inning. Now, however, I don't think it's necessary, especially with DeRosa and Lind hurting which basically means a two-man bench.

A good bench is valuable for pinch-hitting, pinch-running, spot starts and as injury replacements. I think you underestimate the value of a these options while over-valuing the rarely used 8-man. Right now we have Thole (a catcher) and one utility guy, that's it. You can't even use them in case someone gets hurt and you have to make Esmil Rogers your 3rd baseman or something.

It's time to cut a relief pitcher. At least trade one.

EE out of the lineup now too. Boni is the only bench player. #LoveThisBench

Well at least Gibbons has the right man on the bench...

First-pitch fastball to Cabrera. Love it.

I sorta love when Dickey just goes YOLO and throws his fastball at 82/83.

"Prince Fielder hit a ton of batting practice homeruns, each one farther than the next."

Atta way, Pat.

Nothing says Canada Day like Kawasaki.

"...I think you underestimate the value of a these options while over-valuing the rarely used 8-man...."

I'm certainly not advocating an 8-man pen in the current conditions with two or three hitters nursing injuries. As for the "rarity" of the 8-man pen, the 8th man was used in a high-leverage 9th inning situation just yesterday, and most people (oddly) seemed fine with it.

"Against RHP, he's at 101; better than league average."

But over his MLB career (a larger sample), Kawasaki has an OPS of .626 against RHP. Even if you focus solely on his OBP (his only decent tool), his career OBP against RHP is .325 and his overall career OBP against everyone is .307. And the OBP is undermined by his almost total absence of power.

That was a beautiful 3-2 hard knuckler to Austin Jackson. 

It sure is nice to see Kawasaki playing against a left-hander.  Kudos to Gibbons.

I'm starting to believe Rajai Davis is better at stealing third base than second base. It's kind of weird but fascinating.

The bottom of the lineup is doing a lot better today than yesterday....

"But over his MLB career (a larger sample), Kawasaki has an OPS of .626 against RHP. Even if you focus solely on his OBP (his only decent tool), his career OBP against RHP is .325 and his overall career OBP against everyone is .307. And the OBP is undermined by his almost total absence of power."

If the manager is using his numbers from the disaster in Seattle last year(where almost every hitter struggled mightily) to determine whether or not to pinch hit, that is one stupid manager. As for the lack of power, the bases were loaded, 2 outs and he's the #9 hitter. Drawing a walk with Reyes at the top of the order coming up would have been a terrific outcome.

It's pretty silly to talk of career stats for a rookie.

Of course, we can always look at his Japanese stats. He batted over .300 5 times with as many as 603 AB.  Excluding his Japanese rookie year, he never batter lower than .259 and then he rebounded to .316 the following year.

He's never walked as much in Japan, so it's quite possible he's made some adjustment to Major League pitching.
I mean, we've seen a few Japanese pitchers with control problems who were dominant in their home league.

"....If the manager is using his numbers from the disaster in Seattle last year (where almost every hitter struggled mightily) to determine whether or not to pinch hit, that is one stupid manager...."

I see, a new metric: we can automatically upgrade the stats of any hitter who happens to play on a poor team....

any hitter who happens to play on a poor team....

It was 104 at bats. We've got seven years in Japan and three months in Toronto that suggests he's better than that. He might have been adjusting to a new league and a new role in a new country (and a dreadful park to hit in, not that it should matter much to this particular hitter.). And, again, it was 104 at bats.

"....We've got seven years in Japan and three months in Toronto that suggests he's better than that...."

Nobody seriously takes Japanese hitting numbers and translates them to the major leagues. If the 115 plate appearances from last year are deemed to be meaningless, why do people argue that the 187 plate appearances this season are more significant than the 302 plate appearances from his career? They're all relatively small samples, but to use only the past three months is a fairly arbitrary end point.

To me, the most significant fact is that he was CUT by the Seattle Mariners (despite his fan popularity) and nobody else wanted to sign him, and he ended up on a minor-league contract with the Jays. Are we arguing that every major-league scout has got him wrong? I love the guy, but I think we are overrating his "approach" and "pluckiness...."

"....Drawing a walk with Reyes at the top of the order coming up would have been a terrific outcome...."

It would have been a terrific outcome, but it was an unlikely outcome. Kawasaki's career OBP in the majors is .307, which is pretty bad. And by including his 2012 numbers, I'm opting for the larger sample size -- normally considered a good thing by most people here.

Look, I think we can agree that Bonifacio has been terrible enough to warrant giving Kawasaki the starting 2B job for now. But let's not pretend that it's a longterm solution. When Lawrie is back, Izturis will be the 2B, and I hope we don't see Kawasaki as the ideal pinch-hitter in any situation.

Nobody seriously takes Japanese hitting numbers and translates them to the major leagues.

Why on earth not? Not taking them seriously would be exactly the same as not taking AAA numbers seriously. You don't expect the player to duplicate them - you make an adjustment for the level of the competition - but they tell you plenty about the player.

Wow, did Rajai just take some previously unknown short cut to first base? It was like he just materialized past the bag. How was that not a double play? I only turned on the game 10 minutes, but I see the Tigers still play their unique brand of defense.

"Nobody seriously takes Japanese hitting numbers and translates them to the major leagues."

Tell that to the Rangers who paid 140 million dollars to Yu Darvish without ever seeing him face MLB pitching. Seems like a silly argument.

"Are we arguing that every major-league scout has got him wrong?"

I don't think major-league scouts make decisions. They simply give recommendations and the GM's are to make decisions based on this information. Not too mention the thousands of cases where every MLB team passed on a guy MULTIPLE times who turned out to be pretty good. See Pujols, Albert. Or Edwin who every MLB team could've claimed but chose not to. Scouts/GM's are wrong a LOT.

Yup - as a (very broad) rule Japanese hitters lose roughly half of their power, but maintain most of their BAVG and OBP. There are exceptions, of course, just as there are witrh minor leaguers coming to the majors. Which brings me to the real issue with Kawasaki - he's simply past his prime. He should be hitting about .275 in the majors. And he isn't. I also think the skyrocketing walk totals indicates that he's trying to adjust to his declining ability. You see it regularly with hitters trying to cope with age.

The club will figure out to do when Lawrie returns.  The decision whether to go with Izturis or Kawasaki or a platoon at second base is not an obvious one.  Izturis in his career typically has had 400-550 PAs per year and he's now in his early 30s.  It might be that he would be more effective playing 4 days per week in the dog days getting work at second and at third, including the odd game at second with Kawasaki at short.  It seems to me that there is a lot to be said for a creative arrangement. 

Players with higher OBP than slugging used to be very common. Here's a Kawasaki-ish batting line from the past: .239/.324/.279 - which was good enough for the man to play regularly. As a leadoff hitter. For a good team.

Game done changed.

In 2011 (his last season in Japan), Kawasaki had the 43rd highest OPS in Japanese baseball. If these are meaningful statistics, should the Jays try to sign some of the 42 hitters who did better than Kawasaki?

Kawasaki managed an OBP of .311 against Japanese pitchers in 655 plate appearances in 2011, which doesn't suggest to me that he will do any better against MLB pitchers in the long term, setting aside his nice couple of months this year.

You're invited to scan the list of those who hit better than him in Japan, and tell me which ones should be chased by the Jays:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=47c050fc

As for Yu Darvish: he wasn't signed by the Rangers for his Japanese pitching statistics, he was signed because of the scouting reports on him -- the same scouting reports that some people would now like to disregard on Kawasaki.

I don't agree with Magpie about the batting average.  Kawasaki is, in my view, in the middle of an adaptation.  He's got to hit with a little pop to survive.  I think he can.  Usually the batters with the exploding walk totals in their late 30s/early 40s are power hitters (like Willie Mays).

43rd highest OPS

Like I said. Past his prime.

Correction on my last post: I should have said that Kawasaki had the 43rd best OPS in 2011 in the Japanese Pacific League -- one of two leagues in Japanese baseball. If you include both leagues, Kawasaki was ranked 82nd in OPS in Japan.

I honestly don't see how anyone could expect his .636 OPS in 2011 to translate into anything better in MLB. Even if you take his career Japanese OPS (which is .722), why would it translate into anything better in the majors, at his age? Most likely you'd have to subtract at least 50 points, which brings him to almost exactly his current number: an OPS of .666 in his best major-league season.

Kawasaki's IsoP is absolutely typical for a middle infielder now.  Here's the IsoP trailer list.  You'll find Kawasawki's name on the 2nd page.

why would it translate into anything better in the majors, at his age?

Oh I agree. I don't think it would. I'm simply saying that his record in Japan tells us more about him than his time in Seattle.

Of course, the date on his birth certificate may tell us more than either of those things.

What in the name of all that's holy is going on at Winbledon? Nadal, Federer, Sharapove... and now Serena? Have the pod people arrived in London?

I honestly don't see how anyone could expect his .636 OPS in 2011 to translate into anything better in MLB.

You wouldn't, but it's one year. Adam Lind spent 3 years hitting 246/296/428, with no accompanying defensive value, and yet here he is deserving a MLB job.

Even if you take his career Japanese OPS (which is .722), why would it translate into anything better in the majors, at his age?

It wouldn't, but it also doesn't have to. Izturis has a career .709 OPS. Bonifacio is a career .657. Both are significantly worse this year.

You could probably expect Kawasaki, Izturis, and Bonifacio to be in roughly the same offensive ballpark. Given that, you may as well play the hot hand. If Kawasaki turns back into the Seattle pumpkin, or Bonifacio shows some signs of offensive competence, demote him or release him; until then, you may as well go with him.

I would very much like to see Luis Jimenez here and Lind on the DL.

Out of curiosity Mike, why Jimenez over Gomez?  Can't remember who posted it, but apparently AA was talking up Gomez on the radio recently.

Ultimately, we can tinker indefinitely with the bottom end of the roster, but I'm starting to strongly believe that if AA is going all in, as the dealing of so many top prospects in the off season would imply, that it's time to trade for a Chase Utley type to upgrade the bottom end of this lineup.  I think it was China Fan who said that we can carry one or two problem bats at the bottom of the order, but not 3, and I couldn't agree more. 

The link you pasted has him at 33rd in OBP with .310.
Even hitting .266 he was 26th in BAVG that year, so clearly he was always more a hitter than a guy who gets on base.
Maybe it's like Barry Bond who was a great bunter but never bothered.

In 2010 he was 9th in BAVG and 17th in OBP.
By comparison,  Randy Ruiz was 38th and 42th that year.

Looking at his numbers in Seattle... He had a decent April, similar to his numbers here, than he batted in only 3 game over a 25 games stretch in May and did zippo. Was OK again in June and then the numbers drop. Kinda looks like his poor batting performance is rooted in the lack of play. He went from 602 AB (in 144 games) to 104 (in 162 games).

Anyway, he managed an OPS of 780 in June. We can consider that his ceiling. 

Having been at the past three Jays home games, it is getting embarrassing to listen to the fans chanting Ka-wa-sa-ki, louder than any cheer for any other player. He had one bloop hit today, and the crowd treats him like a superstar. It makes our fans look bush league.

It makes our fans look bush league.

No, the wave does that.

I don't think the crowd is treating Kawasaki like a superstar, just a popular player as is their right. I believe he was a fan favourite in Seattle as well, this isn't unique to Toronto.

I think collective fan behaviour is almost stupid by definition.  What collective behaviour by fans is ever poignant, smart or insightful? I think it's designed to be fun, chauvinistic and ridiculous. 

I think it's great. It removes the pressure from the real superstars.
Unless you think some players are under performing because they're jealous?

Having been at the past three Jays home games, it is getting embarrassing to listen to the fans chanting Ka-wa-sa-ki, louder than any cheer for any other player. He had one bloop hit today, and the crowd treats him like a superstar. It makes our fans look bush league.

If fans bother you, stay home and watch the game on TV.

Getting back to what matters, has anyone heard much of whats up with Lind and EE? Are they expected back in a day or two, or do we expect a possible DL stay for either?

Also in regards to the current 14 games in 14 days against top competition, I think we'd all have liked to go 2-2 or 3-1 against Boston, and it was possible with a bit more luck. Despite that all we're still 6-5 against that group. If we can win 2 out of the next 3 against Detroit (tough odds with the last two pitchers being their aces) that would be 8-6 which I'd be happy with. 7-7 I'd be okay with, if not super enthused.

Not sure why the fans love for Kawasaki offends you. He's a fun guy to watch, what's wrong with cheering him on? He gets a special type of applause for his personality and charm, if other players showed that same charming energy they'd get cheered like that too

No, the wave does that.

Now if there is anything that is past due date in baseball fandom, it is the wave.  It was a fun fad in the first year, but after that, it has been all downhill.

Why Jimenez over Gomez?

Same power.  Much better plate control. If you wanted to be truly adventurous, you'd send down one of the relievers and platoon them. 

From the Wikipedia article on the phenomenon:

While the exact origins of the wave may be in dispute, Seattle was the first place to routinely perform it.

What is it with Seattle? I knew about grunge and Microsoft. I knew about Jimi Hendrix. This, too?

Like most everyone who's gone to a lot of games, my automatic reaction is "The wave? Oh hell." But I know lots of people who maybe go to one game a year, and they're "The wave? Hey, neat!" They actually get a kick out of it, it makes them feel like participants. And they make me feel like a Grumpy Old Man, which is uncomfortably close to the truth.

I've gone soft on the wave. Anything that helps newcomers enjoy themselves the ballpark is fine by me. Big tent.

Same. Casual (and sometimes annoying fans) pay the bills. If the Wave/Kawasaki/whatever gets casual fans in the park and more important keeps them entertained so they come back, then I'm ALL for it.

Endless arguing and debating about a replacement player whose position is played by a superstar.

Bonifacio is a superstar?

Here is the issue - we have people going nuts over Kawasaki both ways when the question isn't 'Kawasaki vs Reyes' or 'Kawasaki vs ML regular' but instead is 'who is better for the Jays in 2013 Kawasaki or Bonifacio or Izturis or DeRosa'.  Kawasaki, to be a valuable member of the team, just has to be more valuable than one of those 3.  However, as always, it isn't quite that simple for team management.  If they feel Kawasaki is more valuable than Izturis then they'd have to eat 2 1/2 years of contract which isn't going to happen.  DeRosa would be an easy dump in many respects as he is a 38 year old hitting for a 92 OPS+ and falling after not reaching 90 this decade (2009 last time over 90).  Injury problems aside odds are against him staying valuable. 

Bonifacio though....ugh...over 7 ML seasons just once did he have an OPS+ over 76 - his 2011 season where he had a 107.  Otherwise he has been in the 70's twice, 60's twice, 50's once (11 games) and 45 this year (221 PA).  How bad is that?  Vizquel hit for a 49 last year and Mike McCoy's lifetime OPS+ is 45.  Bob Gibson, the HOF pitcher, had a 50 OPS+ lifetime.  Yup, that's how bad Bonifacio has been - he is hitting like a good hitting pitcher which is kind of like saying you have a shot in the NBA because you are as tall  as Muggsy Bogus (5'2" - played with one of the 2 tallest NBA'ers ever in Manute Bol which was quite the sight).

Bonifacio keeps getting shots because he is fast and had one year where he was valuable.  His bWAR peak to bottom are 2.7, 1.0, 0.5 with the rest at 0 or less.  3.5 overall.  fWAR has him at 2.8, 1.1, 0.4 with the rest at 0 or less.  His peak year was worth $12.8 mil, the rest $4.4 or less.  This is a guy who has to steal tons of bases at a great pace to have value.  He showed defensive value in 2010 thus the positive that year, but we've all been experiencing nightmares this year with him.  I figure he is one of those guys who drives managers and GM's and scouts nuts.  All the talent in the world but just cannot put it together for any length of time.  He did in 2011 and to a lesser degree 2010 but otherwise you could grab a AAAA guy and get as much value.  And even peak value he was just barely over what is expected from an average player (2 WAR vs 2.7 or 2.8).   If he was stealing like he did in the past, if he was showing defense like he did in 2010, if he hit for even a mid-70s OPS+ I could see keeping him but right now I really see no value in Bonifacio and his #1 asset, his speed, is likely to be the first thing he loses.  If another club wants him try to get something for him or make him part of a bigger trade but clear him out.

More concerning... how are Yankees posting 10 runs in a game when they are running out Nix, Wells, Overbay, Stewart (Chris), and Adams (David)?

Hafner is holding down the DH spot with a .754 OPS, Gardner is doing a good job of setting the table and Cano is Cano. But really...

The Yankees are more concerned about their offense than you are, trust me. They were last in MLB in runs in June, and are the only team in the AL East with a negative run differential. Oh yeah, and the fans aren't coming. Their management intending to fix this problem is what you should be concerned about.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/02/sports/baseball/with-fewer-stars-at-yankee-stadium-fewer-fans-are-watching.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Hoping for the Dickey effect on Wang's start tonight.  Not sure we've seen it yet this season.  Be good I think to get JOhnson in this spot after the all star break.

we have people going nuts over Kawasaki both ways

Casual fans maybe, but I don't recall anyone here going nuts over Kawasaki. Most of Kawasaki's firmest supporters have just pointed out that there is a lot of evidence, to their mind, that Kawasaki is more likely to be the better player for the rest of 2013 than Bonifacio (as you have pointed out). That's the question.

Nobody here has suggested that he should take playing time away from Reyes or his presence should prevent the front office from acquiring a top talent at 2B (if that was possible and not prohibitively costly). Also, most people recognize that, although he has been disappointing so far this year, Izturis deserves to get some playing time going forward because of his track record.

Forget the track record, we can just look at Maicer's recent play. Since June 10 he has started all but one of the team's games and has hit .300/.329/.457 in 76 PA with 5 doubles, 2 HRs, 4 walks, and 12 strikeouts. If you think Bonifacio should just be discarded because you can't stand what you've seen from him on the field thus far, try and remember what you thought of Izturis when he was hitting .202/.240/.288 on June 9th.

...and there is good reason to believe that Izturis is a significantly better hitter against LHP than Kawasaki. 

Early returns on Kawasaki defensively at second base?  Thumbs up from me.  Tonight will be a good test with Wang on the mound, and likely some DP opportunities.

Izturis' poor performance in April and May was driven by a ridiculously low BABIP, with terrible fortune on line drives being the key. I had no worries that he would recover to something close to his career norms.  Bonifacio is a different story.  His W/K/HR this year is that of a terrible hitter.  He can do better, but luck isn't really part of the equation. 

Because they're playing the Twins, and the Twins couldn't beat them if the Yankees were fielding a little league team.

Hoping for the Dickey effect on Wang's start tonight. 

Has anyone studied the matter to ascertain that it truly exists? Or is this just something people assume to be true since it sounds plausible?

Here's a short study.  I looked simply at 2012, and compared Met games following a Dickey start with same opponent and with different opponent (i.e. when Dickey pitches the last game of a series).  The results were pretty striking.  The following pitcher faced the same opponent as Dickey in 21 of his 33 starts; during those starts, the Mets surrendered 64 runs or 3.05 runs per game.  When Dickey pitched the last game of a series, the Mets gave up 75 runs in 12 following games or 6.25 per game.  The starters were pretty much the same in both cases- Niese early in the season, Santana in the middle and Harvey at the end.  The results were striking in particular for Johan Santana who got absolutely killed when he was facing a new opponent, but was effective when facing the same opponent as Dickey.

Izturis was stinking up the joint for the first 2 months just like Bonifacio.  But...
100+ OPS+: Izturis 3 times, Bonifacio 1
80-99 OPS+: Izturis 4 times, Bonifacio 0
Under 80 OPS+: Izturis 3 times, Bonifacio 6 (one with under 100 PA)

So Bonifacio has one year with an 80+ OPS+, Izturis 7.  Boni has 6 years of well under 80, Izturis 3.  There was only one reason to hope for Bonifacio over Izturis - age.  Boni is in his age 28 season vs Izturis being in his age 32. 

Everything I see screams that Bonifacio is a guy you should expect a 70 OPS+ from, while Izturis should be around 90.  That Bonifacio's big year was a pure fluke and expecting a big recovery from him is just throwing good money after bad.  The scary thing is Bonifacio is getting worse, not better.  June 428 OPS, past 10 games 501 OPS, past 10 PA 0 for 8 with 2 walks.  I mean, how much worse can it get before you let pitchers hit for him?

Missing Dickey Most: The Guy After Him http://on.wsj.com/XkSZMh via @WSJ

And a follow-up article...

R.A. Dickey and the day-after effect http://cbsprt.co/ZGBAJT via @cbssports

The links in 92-93 didn't work for me as the URLs appear to have changed.  Here is the first article.

Bonifacio's splits are fascinating. When he's been good, it's been mostly coming from the right side of the plate. From 2009 to 2011 he had an OPS of 800+ against lefties. Since then, he's been terrible on the right side, barely above 400.

I think his upside is 700+ OPS as a LHB or 800+ as a RHB.
Makes no sense to be a switch hitter if you can't hit from either side.
He should probably pick a side and stick to it. Preferably in AAA.

I don't dispute that there may in fact be a Dickey effect, but the WSJ "study" alone certainly won't convince me. It did concede that there was no hangover effect in 2010 and 2011, which is not a great start when attempting to build a body of evidence. And in 2012, the study did not seem to attempt to adjust for quality of opponent (maybe Dickey and Niese happened to face the same opponent most often against weak opponents, where Niese's ERA figured to be lower than usual anyway).

For now, I will accept the notion of a hangover effect with a large grain of salt. It feels too much like the "protection in the batting order" argument to me.

I'm at work, so haven't had time to dive into those articles but I imagine there are a lot of variables that would have to be isolated to figure out the validity/reach of the hangover effect.

The lineup. How much of it turns over. How often was the pitcher after Dickey a lefty/righty and within context of the opposition how did they do against those handedness pitchers on a whole. Etc. I think their may be a legitimate hangover factor but if 2/5th of the lineup turns over and the next days pitcher is a lefty and that team struggles against lefties, etc... lots of things that I think could skew the data.

"....Most of Kawasaki's firmest supporters have just pointed out that there is a lot of evidence, to their mind, that Kawasaki is more likely to be the better player for the rest of 2013 than Bonifacio (as you have pointed out). That's the question...."

My own comments on the subject were just intended to show that the difference between Bonifacio and Kawasaki, in the long run, is likely to be fairly marginal. Kawasaki has been hitting remarkably well for the past 3 weeks (an OPS of .918 in fact), and on the "hot hand" theory he deserves more time in the lineup. It's good that he's getting time at 2B now. But let's not forget that his OPS as recently as June 9 was just .586 and that this number was unsurprising based on his major-league career and his recent Japanese numbers. To expect him to continue hitting at the rate of the past 3 weeks is unrealistic. That's the only point that I was trying to make.

We can agree on that.  If Kawasaki can hit at a .260/.350/.350 clip as a platoon second baseman, that would be a terrific result.  I don't think anybody expects more than that. 

And to broaden the issue, since people are (correctly) rather bored with discussing Kawasaki so much, let me pose this question: when predicting the future performance of a hitter, how much weight should you give to his recent performance (past few weeks) and how much weight to his mid-term performance (past couple seasons) and how much to his career performance? I'm curious how ZIPS and other methods draw this balance, and what would they predict now for Kawasaki and Bonifacio going forward? (I believe those numbers do exist somewhere.)

Recent performance cannot be the only predictor of future performance. If we had only looked at the past couple of seasons, nobody would have thought that Adam Lind had any chance of bouncing back to his great performance of this season. Lots of players have hot streaks and cold streaks, so we can't predict the future based on a hot 3 weeks or a cold 2 months. But they do have some value in any calculation. So, what balance to draw between recent performance and larger sample sizes?

They are both tricky cases, for different reasons.  I am not sure what to make of the translation of Kawasaki's JPL stats because the key feature of the translation is a difference in power and he had very little to begin with.  Put it another way.  I have no idea what Luke Appling would have hit in the JPL; it is (I think) particularly hard to figure out how the ability to spoil two-strike pitches will affect results.  It may be that in MLB, it leads to more walks than in the JPL. As for Bonifacio, the trick is where you draw the line on the mid-term because he has had so many part-seasons. He's only had the equivalent of 3 full seasons of PAs since 2009 and that's probably where I would draw it.  You probably want to weight it something like 4X last 600 PAs, 3X previous 600 PAs, 2X 600 PAs before that, at least for someone in mid-career.  The career line (of course) matters too, as the Lind example would illustrate.

One aspect of predicting future performance is actually paying attention the the players at bats. Against lefties, Kawasaki is still trying to dink balls into left field. Against righties, he seems to have changed his approach from when he arrived and is actually trying to turn on pitches. I made mention of discounting his Seattle numbers. Seattle hitters seem to regress in almost all cases. The ballpark is a factor, but what about the hitting coach? Most coaches mesh with some players some of the time. Poor coaches mesh with few players most of the time. Good coaches mesh with more players more of the time.

I don't know if Mottola is a good coach yet, but it certainly looks like he's been working with Kawasaki and it seems to be paying off. Kawasaki's plate appearances certainly look far better than Bonifacio's.

From Griffin's Bullpen:

"But after a slow start and an encouraging May 4 starts vs. the M’s, he strained his back on a bullpen day — then his forearm and is in the manager’s doghouse."

I wish the media wasn't so vague. Blair & Hayhurst have repeatedly called out Morrow for being soft ("whispers around the clubhouse"(, and now this. There's a story here that people are being reluctant to tell, but it's going to come out eventually.

Even if one were to concede that Bonifacio and Kawasaki are likely to produce similar value from this point forward, there is an esthetic argument to be made. One is enjoyable to watch and one isn't. That argument wouldn't wash where a great disparity might exist, but for close calls, give me the guy who doesn't annoy me.

I agree completely with hypobole.  The subjective observations in both cases are worth something.

For what it's worth, BBRef has Kawasaki adding 1.3 WAR (for fangraphs, it's 0.8 WAR) over less than 1/2 a season.  An average full-time player will produce 2 WAR. 

Tough to say how to weight it all.  With someone like Kawasaki I have trouble putting much weight on last year due to it being an adjustment year (just moved from Japan to MLB) and the extremely limited PA Seattle gave him.  For Bonifacio I look at the body of work and see one big outlier and a lot of ugly otherwise. 

However, one also has to look for extenuating circumstances.  Adam Lind for example.  He had that one great year and a lot of blech otherwise (not counting his 18 games in 2006).  But looking closer there were extreme hot streaks and extreme cold streaks suggesting something was causing those and there was an explanation based on exhaustion and minor injuries.  Problem being, how do you know when those are the actual causes and not just excuses.  As fans we cannot.  As a team the Jays could though by doing tests regularly and putting in place fitness programs or other methods (more DH time for example) to deal with the issues.

With Kawasaki vs Bonifacio you have one guy who is getting all he can out of his limited talent (Kawasaki) and one guy who is getting very little out of a lot of talent (Bonifacio).  That leads fans to get extremely frustrated with the talented one and happy with the less skilled.  Probably the same with the club but the club feels a need to give the raw talent more and more rope as he _could_ be better. 

Ideal solution?  A trade for a much better second baseman and clearing out two of Izturis/Bonifacio/DeRosa/Kawasaki.  Meanwhile I suspect Kawasaki will keep up the Buffalo/Toronto shuttle and the Jays will have to choose between letting one of the other 3 go or cutting back to a 7 man pen.

As to that 8th man...
No rest: Delabar, Loup
1 Day: Janssen, McGowan, Perez
2 Days: Wagner, Oliver
3 Days: Cecil

No reliever has had more than 3 days off, and the one with 3 days had just finished 4 games in 3 days throwing 54 pitches over those 4 games.  The pen is being used and 4 days off appears to be about the limit lately for anyone to rest.  The Jays have a 2.92 team bullpen ERA, #2 in the AL despite having the most innings of any bullpen (296 1/3, or about what a starter will get in 1 1/2 seasons).   The best ERA goes to KC who has the fewest bullpen innings.  3 NL teams have better pen ERA's but none have more innings.

So this pretty much says Gibbons is doing a great job with the pen, again, juggling a lot of guys (17 pure relievers, 2 more who started and relieved) to get great results.  FYI: Wagner now has appeared in more games than Lincoln but is 9 relief games behind Rogers (his next target).  That shows how Gibbons sees talent and sticks it in there even if the guy was only a stopgap AAAA'er at the time of callup.  Now if he could just get someone to help him with the lineup who can be as amazingly effective but with offense instead.

"....for close calls, give me the guy who doesn't annoy me...."

Good point, and I tend to agree. And there's also the point that Kawasaki's example (hard work, playing smart, seeing a lot of pitches) can be a good model and positive influence for the rest of the team. On the other hand: what if Kawasaki has reached his absolute ceiling in recent weeks and is virtually certain to regress, while Bonifacio has a chance to be much better because of a higher ceiling? I'm not saying that the "ceiling" argument should be the dominant factor, but it's worth including in the equation. On the third hand -- maybe Gibbons and Anthopoulos have been paying too much attention to the "ceilings" of their players and not enough attention to the actual results of the past few weeks. That seems to be changing now.

"....in the manager’s doghouse...."

I saw that too, and it leaped out at me. If it's true, it's significant. But why isn't Griffin bothering to substantiate or explain it? Maybe because it's still in the realm of rumor and speculation? I'd prefer things to be confirmed and explained when they are published, rather than just provoking us to imagine a range of possibilities.

"The pen is being used and 4 days off appears to be about the limit lately for anyone to rest"

The lack of a true long man is a concern. It's hard to protect the health of Janssen, Oliver, and McGowan all at the same time.

Well, that is why there are 8 guys out there.  With 8 you can rest Oliver, McGowan and Janssen a lot easier than with 7.

As to long men...
Perez: 15 1/3 IP in 9 games = 1.7 IP per game - 1 3IP, 3 more of 2+ IP
Loup: 41 1/3 IP in 34  games = 1.2 IP per game - 1 3IP, 6 more of 2+ IP.
With Cecil, Delabar, Rogers (when in relief), and McGowan averaging over an inning per game.

The Jays are not doing the super-specialist game this year, but using guys for full innings it seems.  Checking the distant past, when pens had 5 men and long relief was common (1985) the Jays had 6 guys over 10 IP all over an inning per game but just 2 had more IP per game than Perez and one barely (Musselman at 1.74 and Lamp at 1.94 IP per game).  Without doing a lot of research I suspect Eichhorn in 1986 was the last to average over 2 IP over a significant number of games for the Jays (2.28 IP per game over 69 games, 157 IP).  So clearly Perez has the long man role with Loup also in that role often.  It seems Gibbons limits it to 3 IP in relief unless craziness happens (those 17 inning games) or it is a special case (AAA starter called up for 2 or 3 games).  Rogers had 2 3 IP games and 3 more of 2 IP to warm up for starting so even then he was limited to 3 IP.  In the 18 inning game Lincoln went 4 IP.  In the 17 inning one Redmond (a AAA starter) went 3 2/3 IP (2/3 was when he gave up the winning run).

Would a guy who can go 5+ in relief be nice?  Sure.  But is it needed? I don't think so as 17/18 inning games don't happen often.

The Jays are not doing the super-specialist game this year, but using guys for full innings it seems.

Of course this is easier to do when the pitchers are so ridiculously effective. The would-be loogies have been trustworthy against RHB. Delabar is strong against LHB. Janssen is a trustworthy closer. No one in the pen currently needs coddling for reasons other than health.

It's a lot easier to carry "only" 7 relievers when you have a long man.

This fact might stun some people, but the Red Sox played the series against the Jays carrying 6 relievers.

It seems pretty cut and dry to me that a Kawasaki/DeRosa platoon is easily our best option at 2B by a large margin, and could make a difference of as much as 2 more wins over the last half of the year.

vs. RHP

M.Kawasaki Career: .322obp, .630ops, .286woba, 79wRC+, +30.6uzr/150 @2B
E.Bonifacio Career: .316obp, .650ops, .291woba, 76wRC+, -4.6uzr/150 @2B

M.Kawasaki 2013: .349obp, .714ops, .317woba, 98wRC+, ???uzr/150 @2B
E.Bonifacio 2013: .242obp, .584ops, .253woba, 54wRC+, -1.1uzr/150 @2B


vs. LHP

M.DeRosa Career: .362obp, .828ops, .360woba, 118wRC+, -2.7uzr/150 @2B
Bonifacio Career: .324obp, .676ops, .301woba, 83wRC+, -4.6uzr/150 @2B

M.DeRosa 2013: .333obp, .764ops, .330woba, 107wRC+, -1.8uzr/150 @2B
Bonifacio 2013: .213obp, .420ops, .192woba, 12wRC+, -1.1uzr/150 @2B


Bonifacio has only ever had the one good year in his career, he's never done anything to earn this kind of rope when he's struggling. His offense is only marginally better than kawasaki's even including that career year - take out that career year and their overall career numbers are extremely similar. In fact, Kawasaki is currently hitting better than Bonifacio ever has in any season other than his one career season. In no other season has bonifacio hit as well as Kawasaki is hitting now.

With a Kawasaki/DeRosa platoon you could reasonably expect league average hitting and defense from the 2B spot the rest of the way (if they continue what they've done so far, it would be well above average), and I don't see how we can reasonably expect the same from Bonifacio.


A team like Tampa has no problem demoting borderline MLB season-starters like Roberts and Duncan when they're not performing acceptably (though both were playing far better than Bonifacio), and a team like the Red Sox has no problem demoting borderline MLB season-starters like Ciriaco, Middlebrooks, Bradley when they're not performing at an accetable level - and both teams feel free to replace those guys with hotter performing borderline players. Both teams have allowed guys like Nava and Lobaton to steal playing time away from struggling starters Gomes and Molina, too, when they get hot.

There really is no time to waste. We've dug ourselves far too big a whole to keep trotting out THE WORST PLAYER IN BASEBALL IN 2013 game in and game out, even when he's never proven himself capable of being a starting MLB player. We're just shooting ourselves in the foot.

Of course, Boston also has an ERA of 4.14 from their relievers (vs the Jays 2.92) and in 53 fewer innings have allowed the same number of home runs and walked just 1 fewer.  The sOPS+ for hitters vs Boston relievers is 116, 2nd worst in the AL while hitters vs the Jays is at 92, tied for 4th.  So, sure, you can go with 6 instead of 8 relievers but recognize there is a price to be paid.  Yes, Boston is doing better than the Jays overall but their pen is certainly not the reason.

Adam Lind is much better than anyone thinks. After his monster 2009, he had a poor April 05 - July 11, 2010: .214, .371; but a much better 2nd half, July 16 - October 03, 2010: .267, .309, .498.

In 2011, from April 01 - July 10, he continued doing well: .300, .349, ..515. His 2nd half of 2011 was a disaster: .197, .233, .356.

In 2012, from April 05 - July 08, he continued poorly: .206, .287, .388. His 2nd half,however, was very good: .304, .343, .441.

This year, April 02 - June 30, he has continued to do very well: .327, .386, .547.

Lind has had his injury problems, and will likely always have them. But since 2009 he has had 1 1/2 bad years and 2 very good years so far.

The O's have acquired Scott Feldman. Seems like a good move for them (in exchange for Feldman and Steve Clevinger, they gave up Arrieta, Strop, and some international bonus pool money - interesting trade). They have a legit shot at the playoffs this year, but they needed (need?) pitching. The road ahead just got a bit tougher for the Jays.

but they needed (need?) pitching

Need.

"....We've dug ourselves far too big a whole to keep trotting out THE WORST PLAYER IN BASEBALL IN 2013 game in and game out...."

It hasn't really been "game in, game out." He has 207 ABs, which is only two-thirds as many ABs as the top regulars, and he would certainly have a lot less playing time if it wasn't for two key infield injuries -- Reyes and Lawrie -- and the absence of good 2B or SS prospects in the minors.

Just an illustration of just how horrific our 2B situation really is, at the halfway point of the season...

Jays' OPS by Position (with AL Rank):

RF: .827 (1st)
1B: .892 (2nd)
DH: .837 (2nd)
SS: .722 (6th)
CF: .741 (8th)
3B: .682 (8th)
PH: .549 (10th)
LF: .707 (11th)
C: .654 (11th)
2B: .570 (15th)


Jays' UZR/150 by position (with AL Rank):

P: +7drs (1st)
RF: +12.4 (4th)
CF: +6.7 (5th)
LF: -3.3 (9th)
3B: -3.7 (9th)
SS: -7.3 (11th)
C: -5drs (12th)
1B: -5.8 (13th)
2B: -7.6 (14th)

Hey cool, Kawasaki is hitting 9th tonight and is DH'ing. Thole is catching, which means the bench is J.P. Arencibia and injured players. I mean, if part of the reason for pining for Buffalo to be the affiliate was that call-ups were close so the team isn't left short-handed, isn't this one of those situations? The only move Gibbons has tonight is pinch-hit Arencibia (for Boni or Izturis) and move him behind the plate, Thole to 1B and move DeRosa to 3B, or lose the DH and have no available pinch-hitters. Not to mention the stupidity of hitting a DH 9th.

If you are going to run out an 8 man pen, you can't be shy about using the DL for position players with injuries of indeterminate duration.  Lind's back injury, given his history, should have qualified.  It is not only a matter of when the player comes back, but also any lingering effects on hitting ability.  The balance is different than it might be if you had a longer bench.

when predicting the future performance of a hitter, how much weight should you give to his recent performance (past few weeks) and how much weight to his mid-term performance (past couple seasons) and how much to his career performance?

Depends on age, health, and on league transition. Some players have similar trends each year--always starts slow for instance--while others don't. And obviously the Japanese Leagues are a big unknown.

Kawasaki is not winning the triple crown. He's just playing a solid defense. He runs well. He plays small ball well and he's hitting at a level that's not above what his career stats would predict. He's walking more, but as far as we know, he's never played at a level where he needed to walk to be successful.

I've seen a few players in Little League who could always put the ball in play but were an automatic out.
Those players would have been huge assets if they had learn to foul pitches and work the count--especially in light of the pitch count rules.

The key with Adam Lind seems to be health. Platooning him might help him stay healthy.  Beyond that, it's all luck.

So people want to put Lind on the DL and lose him for two weeks, just to get a player from Buffalo for tonight's game? Lind says he's likely to be playing tomorrow, and Encarnacion will probably be playing tomorrow too. I don't think it makes sense to DL either of them for two weeks if they are ready tomorrow. As for "lingering" effects -- that's fairly speculative, I don't think we should assume that Lind will be hitting badly after a minor injury. Yes, the bench is incredibly thin tonight, but that's better than losing Lind and Encarnacion for two weeks unnecessarily.

Muscle spasms in the back with Lind's history?  I'll say this.  If he comes back tomorrow, the over/under on his performance for the rest of the year is a lot closer to his career mark than to his first-half performance.  I'd much rather have Jimenez in there than Lind back in the lineup and gutting it out. 

I'd rather they send Wagner down for 10 days and bring up Negrych or someone who can help out. If you're going to sit an injured Encarnacion, Lind, and JPA, having options in case someone gets hurt seems like a good move. Particularly when the farm club is in Buffalo.

If Lind and EE are feeling better tommorrow, send Negrych or Jimenez or whomever it was back down, and call up Brad Lincoln until Wagner's 10 days are up.

That would work for me too.

lincoln....storey...carreno...stilson....any of them would work just fine.

Kawasaki has been hitting remarkably well for the past 3 weeks (an OPS of .918 in fact), and on the "hot hand" theory he deserves more time in the lineup. ... To expect him to continue hitting at the rate of the past 3 weeks is unrealistic.

The sample got smaller because he was off the team and you're probably picking up his homerun.
He's hitting .244 in June. That is quite sustainable. No guarantees of course, but pretty good odds there.
Opposing pitchers might adjust to his OBP and throw more strikes. but it's not like they are pitching around him now.

JNorthey, you seem to be correlating a bullpen's success with its size, and I have no idea why you're doing that. But if you're going to, it seems relevant to point out the Boston leads baseball in runs scored by a wide margin, and that it can't hurt that John Farrell has an actual bench to work with and make substitutions.

to be fair, Boston's starters are consistently going deep into games....and to be honest, I'm not exactly sure what Boston is thinking. their bullpen is in rough shape and has been costing them a whole crapload of games lately (they were something like .500 in their last 20gms before playing us I think).

It's not like having Diaz and Snyder on the team is making them a better offensive team.

Truth is they're kind of stuck - Drew is injured but not injured enough to go on the DL, which means Iggy was the only one who could play SS until they called up Diaz. But they don't want to start Diaz, so have Snyder at 3B. Meanwhile, they don't have any room for their best bench bat (Carp) who can't play anything other than 1B or DH, which are taken by Ort and Napoli, and he's out of options, so they can't send him down without losing him.

You could actually argue that the versatility of the Jays' bench is giving them an advantage over the Red Sox in this case, especially with the Jays having multiple players capable of covering SS, CF, 2B, and 3B.

being forced to have Diaz on the roster for defensive purposes isn't exactly a great thing.

Well, 92-93, if someone is going to say 'see, a 6 man pen can work' then I have to point out that it _isn't_ working for Boston.  Now, one can debate that the extra 2 bats have helped them more but then you need to show how it has.

Of course, taking a quick look last year the Jays (with Boston's current manager) was dead last in the AL for team ERA for the pen at 4.33, and 10th the year before that (out of 14).  Might there be a relationship between manager and how well the pen does, even more so than number of relievers and quality thereof?  Perhaps.

Come to think of it, we scored 19 runs against boston. pretty much 5 per game. never less than 4. It was the 21 runs we gave up - including two blown leads by our bullpen - that lost us the series.

The Sox' bullpen did their best to give us the series - go ahead runs given up in games 2, 3, and 4 - but our bullpen couldn't hold them in 2 of those games.

Then again, the fact that it was Wagner and Perez who lost those two games is also interesting. Maybe a shorter bullpen would have forced gibber to use his best relievers instead.

"....Maybe a shorter bullpen would have forced gibber to use his best relievers instead...."

Like it or not, it's increasingly clear that Gibbons considers Wagner and Perez to be among his best relievers, only slightly behind Cecil and Loup and probably ahead of Oliver and McGowan.

I find it a little odd. Wagner and Perez seem good, but not the best choice for high-leverage situations. The current size of the 8-man pen is, to some extent, apparently a result of Gibbons not wanting to lose either of those guys, not even for a 10-game minor-league stint. He sees something in those two that he doesn't want to lose.

With the eternal 8th man in the pen vs extra bench bat argument how much would each get used?
Last year's final bench guy was Omar Vizquel (at least for guys on the roster all year).  He had 163 PA with a negative bWAR, negative WPA (-0.673). 
This year's bullpen has 2 guys with more PA against than Vizquel had all year.  Doubling the figures (82 games are in the books but close enough) the 8th guy is Perez with 104 PA (double his current) with 7 pitchers inline to have more PA against than Vizquel had last year.  Now, one of those is Brad Lincoln who is in AAA now, while another is Rogers who is in the rotation now.  The next two guys in the pen for low PA (IE: not on pace to outdo Vizquel) are Wagner and McGowan.  But if you factor in roster time Perez and Wagner (52 PA against so far) are easily on pace to see more batters than Viquel saw pitchers, while McGowan has 29 PA against so far in about a month.  Multiple McGowan's 29 by the 3 months left plus the 29 far = 116 PA despite missing 2 months (add those in at the same pace and he is up to 174).

So basically, even the lowest used reliever for Gibbons will get as much if not more PA action than the least used hitter did last year, despite it being a short bench last year as well (8 man pens did occur then too).  Of course, another side is the least used offensive player this year.  #13 for PA is Reyes who will easily be over 200 PA baring more injuries.  For guys on the roster all year DeRosa is the lowest in PA at 126 (pace for 250).  The least used slot though is backup catcher.  Between Thole and Blanco a total of 72 PA so far, or a pace of 144 for the season.  Of course, the two each have hit worse than Bonifacio so that might explain it a bit.  Plus you need to have a backup catcher, one who is experienced with the knuckleball and the options there are slim.

So would another bench bat get more playing time than the 8th reliever?  Coin toss but based on the best I can guess I'd say it is a wash.  The hard to measure part is the defense/pinch running advantages for an offensive player and the rest for the remainder of the pen via the 8th reliever.  Those elements are extremely hard to measure.

"Well, 92-93, if someone is going to say 'see, a 6 man pen can work' then I have to point out that it _isn't_ working for Boston."

Then point out how it isn't working, please. Don't tell me they have a higher ERA than Toronto's, because that very obviously tells people little about whether a 6 man bullpen (which they only ran for the weekend, typically it's been 7) can work or not.

Sheesh.  OK - Boston has a bleck pen.  They allow more runs than the Jays, more home runs, more walks while pitching less often.   They also go with 7 and sometimes 6 relievers vs the Jays 8 and sometimes 7 relievers.  The Jays pen has 2 failed starters (Janssen & Cecil) who are key pieces, 2 AAA guys who have 29 innings between them allowing 18 hits, 9 walks, 23 strikeouts and 1 home run, a 9th round draft pick (Loup), a 29th round pick who was gotten for a guy who was released less than a year after the trade (Delabar), and one free agent expensive player (Oliver) who has probably been the worst of the batch.

Boston has 3 free agents (one costing $4+ mil), a $4 mil closer, a $2.3 mil middle man (has another $4 mil locked in), a 2nd round draft pick, and a guy they traded Scutaro for.  That's their core 7.  That is an expense batch of high K, high HR and/or high walk guys.  Plus the top 5 all have more games than innings so even being matched up as best as possible they still have major issues.

"They allow more runs than the Jays, more home runs, more walks while pitching less often"

This illustrates my point. The Red Sox's bullpen numbers have nothing to do with how many relievers they carry, but the talent of the arms.