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We've come too far to give up who we are, so let's raise the bar and our cups to the stars.

Roberto Hernandez (4-8, 5.14), the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona, gets the ball for Tampa Bay. R.A. Dickey (6-8, 5.15) hopes to find some luck with his knuckleball on getaway day. Game time is 12:10 pm Eastern.

Today's @BlueJays lineup: Reyes-SS Bautista-RF Encarnacion-3B Lind-1B Cabrera-DH Rasmus-CF Davis-LF Thole-C Bonifacio-2B
Game Thread — 6/26 @ Tampa Bay | 132 comments | Create New Account
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#275066) #
The College World Series was won by UCLA in two straight games. That means any College Picks should be signing starting today and the next few days. That means Toronto gets to start signing their HS Picks.

Jose Reyes joins the Team today with Kawasaki being sent down and Ortiz going on the 60-day DL. At least now they have to get back on their winning ways. Brett Lawrie should get at least 10 games or
much more to work on his hitting, which he badly needs. Calling him up to soon is a waste in time, great defence or not.
rpriske - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#275067) #
I am disappointed about Kawasaki. I would rather have him on the team than Bonifacio. (Or so many relievers...)
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#275068) #
Also sad to see Kawasaki sent down. I think his walks and ability to do the little things made him an ideal #9 hitter and second baseman. Not sure if this is posted, but I would like to honour muno with this: Kawasaki
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#275070) #
Congratulations, Alex and John.  You managed to pull off the trifecta.  Make an objectively unwise decision, irritate an excited fan base and do a number on team chemistry. 

Tools before skills, 8 man bullpens.  I couldn't be a happier guy right now.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#275071) #

The baseball gods will surely mete out punishment for this act of hubris.  What sayeth the soothsayers? Will Adam Lind be dispatched from Olympus and returned to his mortal self? Will overachievers in the bullpen assume a more human form? The gods have been angered. There will be retribution.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#275072) #
Suggested divine retribution.  Josh Thole hits 4 homers (and draws a walk) today in a 13-0 whitewash. The only blemish on a Dickey perfect game is two errors by...

This definitely aint the Old Testament Almighty, who in cases of much smaller offences, would be thinking about injury or death to first born sons or other innocents.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#275074) #
Make an objectively unwise decision, irritate an excited fan base and do a number on team chemistry. 

Act daft, get punked. It's not hard to picture fans next week chanting Kawasaki's name at the first hint of offensive listlessness.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#275075) #
I'll take that over the alternative of a 7 game losing streak and the fans staying away.
eudaimon - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#275076) #
Gibbon's said "he'll be back." Hopefully that's a sign of the near future. Maybe we can dump Boni on some team that loves tools. The Angels? Maybe Seattle?

I'd be in favor of the demotion if it was about short-term asset retention.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#275077) #
True enough.

Today's lineup: Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion (3B), Lind, Cabrera (DH), Rasmus, Davis, Thole, Bonifacio. On the other side, the Rays are resting nobody.


92-93 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#275078) #
I'm surprised Melky isn't being given the day after a night game off. Izturis & Rajai have both handled Fausto well.
Wildrose - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#275079) #
Personally I would have sent Bonafacio packing. I just don't have the required patience to see if his tools will ever translate into actual hitting ability.

I do think though that the team chemistry angle works in a variety of ways. To me while Kawasaki seems quite popular, I'm sure to his Dominican compatriots especially , so is Bonafacio , and given that 3 of the teams best positional players are countrymen , it's a constituency that probably needs to be listened to.

At any rate, I've had enough talk about utility infielders and 8th relievers. I'm quite looking forward to seeing Reyes. Also I wonder how will Dickey perform? Will we finally see the high seventies / low eighties knuckler on a more consistent basis?







Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#275080) #
FWIW, Bautista seems to be pretty irritated with Bonifacio these days, and Encarnacion got a charge out of Kawasaki.  Effort plus results will do that.  Anyways, it is not about a utility infielder; it is about your starting second baseman.  That's a deal.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#275081) #
As I predicted a couple of days ago. It's a reasonable decision in a fluid situation - probably not worth getting too worked up over.
Wildrose - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#275082) #
I'm surprised Melky isn't being given the day after a night game off. Izturis & Rajai have both handled Fausto well.

I agree. I really noticed a difference on that shallow pop fly last night that Davis chased down, a play that Melky would've been 30 feet away on.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#275083) #
Last comment on this topic from me, seeing as the club is in Tampa.  I knew that things had changed with Tampa's management when they traded Delmon Young for Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza.  All the tools in the world for skills.

Bonifacio's market value, unlike Delmon's, is precisely bupkes.

Wildrose - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#275084) #
Anyways, it is not about a utility infielder; it is about your starting second baseman.

I thought Negrych was supposed to be the starting second baseman?
Mylegacy - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#275085) #
As an atheist I rarely spend sleepless nights pondering the wrath of gods. However, I must admit I've never investigated Japanese gods to any great extent. For that reason I pray (metaphorically) that "Kawasaki - I am Japaneeese!" is being sent down to LEARN how to play 2nd base. His OBP has been one of the best on the team - and I think he has been making a multifaceted contribution to the teams production and the enjoyment of the fans. Big K - come back soon.

Sayonara, ja mata ne. (Goodbye, I will see you later.)

Reyes is a welcome addition - a huge welcome addition. Instead of having four serious-hitters-in-a-row (SHIAR) - he gives us five SHIAR's. A 20% increase in SHIRA's. With Melky's gammy hamstring(s) having a real lead-off guy should allow Bautista to get a few more fastballs.

Lawrie - sigh. I am one of those you think his range at 3rd is other worldly. I am also one of those (you know "those" don't you  - you see them hanging out near the women's dressing rooms in department stores - not what you're thinking - just us henpecked husbands - boy you have a dirty mind - you should have that attended to) (did I digress?)... those who think his immaturity is going to be a serious impediment to him reaching his lofty offensive potential. I pray (again metaphorically) that he grows up before we ship him out in despair - only to see him suddenly blossom as the light finally comes on. He will try our patience - mark my words.

Rogers - three back to back jacks - ugh. In his brief time in the rotation - Esmil's been our best starter - last night excepted. As the season progresses we'll discover if last night was the one off or his earlier work was the off.

The rotation still looks weak to me. Dickey (because of lingering neck issues?) has been meh, at best. Johnson has been iffish. Buehrle's been OKish (at times). Rogers - well, lets wait and see - I have high hopes. Wang has been everything we could have hoped - but no more than a 4th or 5th starter in my universe. As to Morrow, Happ, Hutchison and Drabek - who knows what - if anything - will ever be salvaged there (Happ might be the exception in that I think he'll return to his former OKishness.. I haven't even mentioned Romero...er...i just did didn't I...

May I suggest trying Cecil back in the rotation. With his workout regime, he has his fastball up into the 94 mph range, and he's looked MUCH BETTER than he did even when he was winning 15 games  a few years back. Cecil is the ONLY possible starting pitching lightening we might just catch in a jar (metaphorically - of course).

As an old retired goat, who is playing at being a "swing trader" on the TSX, and thus is usually busy watching my meager holdings lose ever increasing gobs of their worth when the markets are open - I am rarely available to comment at this time of the day. I do so today in honour of the Great K - and - because while the market is down 60.67, as I write this, my particular holdings are more or less just mucking about. Go BBRY! Or BB as we Canucks would call it...

smcs - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#275086) #
I don't like the 8-man pen and I really don't like the attitude that Cruz and Wagner are suddenly untouchable. The Jays pulled these two off of the scrap heap and they should be able to find replacements that might be needed down the road from that very same scrap heap. They had almost a Bill Parcells attitude about the 25th man on the roster, that it should almost remain in constant flux to find minimal improvements or guys who could become the 24th or 23rd man on the roster.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#275087) #

Esmil's been our best starter - last night excepted

I thought the time difference in BC was 3 hours. Is it actually 27? If that's the case, those of us in the east can probably help you with a head's up on the markets.

May I suggest trying Cecil back in the rotation.

Even athiests can see how this would be poking the baseball gods with a stick. Cecil looks like he has a fighting chance to be Scott Downs and now you want to get greedy? 

Mylegacy - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#275088) #
I thought we were supposed to think, "Greed is good."
Chuck - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#275090) #
You better hope the baseball gods don't talk to the stock market gods.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#275091) #
"Congratulations, Alex and John. You managed to pull off the trifecta. Make an objectively unwise decision, irritate an excited fan base and do a number on team chemistry."

hehheh. very well said.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#275092) #
Very nice play by Reyes, ranging to his right on a soft grounder from Jennings and throwing him out by a step. Good sign.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#275093) #

I feel for Kawasaki, but there was no way the Jays were going to send down (and lose) Bonafacio.  Kawasaki was the only one that they could send down and know that they can call him back up if someone gets hurt again.  It makes sense.  He is just a light hitting 200 hitter.  A good backup in Buffalo.  That is it.  A fan favorite is no reason to keep him on the roster.

Bonafacio has tools.  Tools that people dream of.  You can't just let that go. 

Cecil as a starter.  Interesting thought.  He has been successful as a reliever, so you be afraid to change that.  But...  He deserves the opportunity to prove he can be a starter.  But what is best for the team?  Right now, if the Jays are winning in the 6th right now, you feel that the game is just about in the bag. 

As far as losing 2 in a row to tampa.....  Good pitching > Good hitting....   

Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#275094) #
They must have given word of the Kawasaki demotion to the BABIP gods sometime before Monday's game. The Rays' infield defense this series has just been spectacular.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#275095) #
Bonifacio can run. What other tools does he have?
Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#275096) #

 I like today's lineup.  Cabrera protects Lind nicely.

I also like R. Davis in the lineup(vs other options).  Don't love EE at 3rd, but it is the lineup is strong.  It will be nice when Lawrie comes back and he bats behind Cabrera.  I think the catcher, 2b and Rasmus should be the bottom third.  (BTW, that is will be 40+ HR in the bottom third.  I don't think the Mariners have that anywhere in thier lineup.)

Four Seamer - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#275098) #
I don't propose to belabour the point either, but I'm disappointed that AA seems to treat players who are out of options as if they were university professors who've achieved tenure, guaranteed employment no matter their performance level.  I am agnostic as to whether it should have been Perez or Bonifacio who was shipped out to make room for Reyes, but the refusal to risk losing either one leaves the team measurably worse off as a result, in a season where the recent hot streak notwithstanding, their poor start has greatly reduced their margin for error the rest of the way.  This team does not have the luxury of sacrificing the actual skills Kawasaki brings to the table, which lead to wins, in favour of Bonifacio's set of tools, which certainly haven't.  Whatever his promise (and let's be honest, at 28 he isn't get to get any faster, and I see no evidence he's ever going to develop into a useful baseball player), surely it's worth the risk to try to sneak Bonifacio down to Buffalo, where he belongs, if Perez at age 34 has suddenly turned into an unsacrificable commodity.  I'd almost go so far as to suggest they team would be better off if Bonifacio did get claimed - addition by subtraction is still addition, and it would save the balance of his salary for the rest of the season, which surely could be put to better use. 
uglyone - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#275099) #
I don't mind anyone belaboring the point. I think we can get more specific than just "tools" over "skills", though....it's AA's infatuation with SPEED that's the biggest concern, IMO. He loves SB far more than he should. I mean, it's nice that we have 3 of the best basestealers in baseball on our team....but only one of them can actually hit much.

Here's a breakdown of two different 2B platoons we could use right now (forgive the laughably small uzr samples for now):

Platoon #1:

M.Izturis v. LHP: 88pa, 3.4bb%, 3.4k%, .262/.287/.333/.621, .275woba, 69wRC+, -18.6uzr/150@2B
E.Bonifacio v. RHP: 148pa, 2.7bb%, 22.3k%, .218/.236/.352/.589, .253woba, 54wRC+, -1.8uzr/150@2B

Platoon #2:

M.Kawasaki v. RHP: 148pa, 12.2bb%, 12.2k%, .254/.352/.369/.721, .320woba, 100wRC+, +30.6uzr/150@2B
M.DeRosa v. LHP: 76pa, 13.2bb%, 17.1k%, .266/.368/.484/.853, .365woba, 131wRC+, +2.5uzr/150@2B


I wouldn't have minded seeing platoon #2 get a chance one little bit.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#275100) #
Kawasaki's on base skills, coupled with decent running ability and being the only guy in the last decade who seems to know how to bunt (Thole excepted) is just way too valuable to a team- even taking the intangibles out of the equation.

I'm with Mylegacy in hoping that AA/JG simply told Kawasaki to go down to AAA and make sure he's comfortable at 2B. You don't necessarily want someone learning a position at the MLB level and it has been a long time since Muno played 2B for an extended period.

As a side benefit it buys AA a little more time to make a roster move if necessary.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#275101) #

I think It is about having assets and doing what is best for the organization. 

In July, when the Jays are shopping around.  Bonafacio is an asset that could be part of a trade.  Kawasaki has no value at all in a trade, but does have value in Buffalo as a backup if someone gets hurt. 

Paul D - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#275102) #
What value could Bonifacio possibly have?
eudaimon - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#275103) #
I think he has value to other teams that value speed (and his ability to play a bunch of positions, if never particularly well). He had that one nice season so someone might take a chance and hope that that version of Boni emerges. Someone might think they're buying low. That being said, not a lot of trade value but maybe we could get a middling prospect?

This is where AA as "the ninja" needs to appear. If we could get Delabar for the recently DFAed Eric Thames we might be able to get something for a super fast utility guy.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#275104) #
It's interesting - the top bidders for Bonifacio are not likely to be contenders. I suspect you'd be more likely to get a useful part for today than a middling prospect.

Lind!

Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#275106) #

He doesn't need to be the main part of the trade.  He could be the finishing touch to acquire a player. 

I live in Seattle, and I think he would be a nice asset here.  What about a project on Dustin Ackley as an example?

Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#275107) #

Bonifacio's tools might be exciting if he was 22. But he's 28, and he's got 542 MLB games that show he has no power, poor plate discipline, and problems making contact. Even if he reaches his ceiling - something like his 2011 season - he still tops out as a pretty good player, while his current performance makes him ill-suited for anything but pinch-running.

I could see the Marlins or someone like them taking a chance on Bonifacio, but there's no way he belongs on a contending team when there are superior options available.

Paul D - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#275108) #
If the Mariners decide to trade Ackley, they can get better than Bonifacio. At worst, they make some sort of challenge trade of him for a similarly young player. Not for a 29 year old.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#275109) #
Ackley isn't a base stealer so AA isn't likely to be interested.

I, on the other hand might give it some thought.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#275110) #
To clarify, by give it some thought I was saying that I'd give paying full value (i.e. Boni plus Osuana) some thought.
Dave Till - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#275111) #
I can see why they demoted Kawasaki - even though, as a fan, the decision saddened me. They didn't want to risk losing any of their bullpen members who were out of options, and Kawasaki can always be recalled if needed.

I did think, though, that he had usefulness as a pinch-hitter to start an inning - his OBP was higher than that of the other bench candidates. And his popularity in the clubhouse and with the fan base also made him worth keeping around. At the very least, he will be back in September.

I don't want to punt Bonifacio until it's clear that he won't get any better. He has great speed, and he can play the infield and outfield.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#275112) #
I'm with Uglyone.

A Kawasaki/DeRosa platoon - K's OBP (vs R) is .352 and DeR's OBP (vs L) is .368.

That combined OBP batting 9th is WELL ABOVE league average - possibly even best in the league.

er...please don't tell She Who Must... as she still thinks I'm with her... you know how possessive those pesky wives can be, eh.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#275113) #
these are the knuckleballs we were looking for.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#275114) #
Even though it's deserved, I'm still surprised by how scared Madden is to use his bullpen right now. Hernandez has been giving up screamers all over the park, and had a lot of luck, but even then he's going to hit 120 pitches today, like Moore did yesterday.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#275115) #
Oh, right. This is why we were excited to acquire Dickey.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#275116) #
That pitching line looked like something from Greg Maddux's peak, especially the 93-pitch complete game.
China fan - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#275117) #
If only the Jays chemistry had not been destroyed by the demotion of Kawasaki, they might have won that game today.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#275118) #
Suggested divine retribution.  Josh Thole hits 4 homers (and draws a walk) today in a 13-0 whitewash. The only blemish on a Dickey perfect game is two errors by...

Oh, much more sneaky than that.  Thole goes 0-3 and Bonifacio goes 1-3 (with no errors), and Dickey is great.  The traps have been set, the leaves have been carefully laid over the traps...
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#275119) #
Mike, your comment about the Rays and Delmon Young is a bit curious. First, Garza had plenty of stuff when TB acquired him - it was hardly a case of trading tools for skills-but-scarce-tools. Second, the Jays just dominated Tampa with an aging knuckleballer they acquired in exchange for three much more toolsy prospects - a trade you opposed if I recall.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#275120) #
oh snap.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#275121) #
I did oppose the trade.  d'Arnaud (when healthy) is a pretty good defensive catcher, who has decent strike zone control, runs very well for a catcher and hits for power.  I am not sure what skills he misses.  The main thing is health, and its impact on performance.  That issue has afflicted both Dickey and d'Arnaud, so far this season.  My major concern was a complete lack of confidence in Arencibia's defensive abilities, and its broad impact on run prevention.  The jury is still out on that one.  When you throw in Syndergaard into the mix, it was a pretty clear "no" to me.

When Garza was acquired by the Rays, he had a very good minor league record without the honking fastball to go with it (excellent control and a good variety of pitches).  Delmon Young was the uber-toolsy #1 pick who had shot up to the majors like a lightning bolt despite poor plate discipline. 

China fan - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#275122) #
Dickey's return to top form, if it continues, could be crucial to the Jays chances of contending this year. And it's possible that he has truly turned the corner. For an explanation of why, read this very prescient analysis by Brendan Kennedy, published BEFORE today's game, which describes how Dickey's knuckleball velocity has finally returned to normal, and how his physical ailments have finally disappeared. Dickey himself was predicting a much better game today. An excerpt:

Dickey says the pain in his upper back and neck is completely gone — “I have no physical issues at all right now” — but he is still strengthening his arm and ridding himself of some bad habits he picked up in his delivery while compensating for the pain. “Those hopefully will be ironed out, even by this outing,” he said.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2013/06/26/blue_jays_knuckleballer_ra_dickey_getting_back_up_to_speed.html
Spifficus - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#275123) #
Garza's average fastball before being acquired was 94. Only 6 qualified starters have averaged more this year. I'd call that a tools-for-tools challenge trade, with a slick fielding SS thrown in to make up the difference.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#275124) #
What skill precisely was Garza missing?  What minor league performance marker did he not have?

A toolsy pitcher is something like Aaron Sanchez last year.  Throws 97.  Great stuff.  Poor control.  Hasn't shown the ability to throw 6 innings consistently.  Randy Johnson would be another example.  Garza was from the Mike Mussina- "has it all" camp as far as I was concerned.

dan gordon - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#275125) #

As of now, the Jays are 5 games behind Oakland and 3.5 games behind NY for the wild card spots.  If you look at the A's record vs the 3 divisions, you can see the huge impact the unbalanced schedule is having on the wild card race.  If you take the Jays current winning percentage vs each division, and apply that to the number of games the A's have played vs each division, the Jays would be 13 games over .500 in their AL games (plus, they have a winning record vs the NL).  This would be good enough to put the Jays right there with Boston for 1st place in the entire league (of course, Boston has had a similar unbalanced schedule).  Oakland, on the other hand, would be back around the .500 mark if their games were distributed like the Jays games are.  It seems grossly unfair to me that the ultimate outcome of who gets the wild card spots depends largely on who has the easier schedule.  This is something that is significantly wrong with the game of major league baseball and needs to be corrected.

I agree with the decision to send Kawasaki down, FWIW.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#275126) #
The unbalanced sched is a joke, and it's annoying because it's the thing most responsible for hiding or masking the fact the Jays have actually had a pretty good team for most of the last 15 years.  People kind of dismiss them because "they're never in the playoffs" and "they're .500-ish".  But how would they look if they didn't have to play the toughest schedule in baseball evey year?  Ugh such a pet peeve of mine.
Spifficus - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#275127) #

I was really just correcting this weird misconception:

When Garza was acquired by the Rays, he had a very good minor league record without the honking fastball to go with it

I'd say his fastball was pretty honking at the time. He still also had refinements to undergo at the major league level (control, which hadn't been an issue in the minors, still needed work to get to major-league quality). It just seems like it's twisting things a bit to imply that it was a tools vs skills thing - he happened to have plenty of both. There's nothing wrong with being both talented and knowing how to use that talent.

An aside: Aaron Sanchez has thrown 215 1/3 more minor league innings (45 2/3 more A+ innings) than Garza had at the same age :). Patience is required with the high school draftees.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#275128) #
Until they're a winning team, Beeston won't complain about the unbalanced schedule; it's too lucrative in terms of drawing power. To be the best, you gotta be the best, and whatnot; Beeston has said this on multiple occasions. And while we all know that attendance would be just fine with a balanced schedule and a winning team, Rogers probably enjoys the guaranteed NYY/BOS bump too much to say anything at this time.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#275129) #
*beat
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#275130) #
OK, Spifficus.  Garza had tools and skills, Bartlett had skills (and contributed 7 WAR over the next 2 years according to fangraphs), and Delmon had uber-tools.  Delmon's "upside", at that point in time, was considered to be somewhere between Juan Gonzalez and Henry Aaron.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#275131) #

NIce win today.

Next, Red Sox.  Minimally, they need to 2/2.  This would make them 6-4 against the Orioles,Rays and Sox.  Nice... 

Then, two more weeks to the all star break.  The Jays are now buyers.  The Jays have lots of moving parts and it could be interesting.  My wish list would be to solve our 2b situation + one more starter.  I don't want the season to hinge on Wang.  I think the bullpen is solid and has solid callups waiting in the wing. 

John Northey - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#275132) #
No question this is the entertainment you get with knuckleballers.  One game he sucks, the next is a shutout.  Unpredictable but as long as the good games outnumber the bad you live with it.

I understand the Kawasaki move.  He'd be looking at being part of a platoon at best, sitting on the bench at worst.  As long as he plays a lot at 2B and some at 3B then this could work out.  The Jays potentially have 5 more years of Kawasaki if they want it before he'd become a free agent so ideally they push him and see what he can do in AAA while he still is the injury backup and could be at 2B before September if the Jays can find a trade partner.

Beyonder - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#275133) #
Re: the unbalanced schedule, ESPN has noted that the Jays have one of the easiest schedules in the second half of the season. While the rest of the AL East will be scrapping it out amongst themselves, the Jays have IIRC, 7 games vs. Houston, 7 vs. the Angels, and 3 vs. the Dodgers, Mariners, and Twins. They also have more home games than any other team in the AL East.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9416764/the-toronto-blue-jays-benefit-much-easier-schedule-second-half-mlb

Spifficus - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#275134) #

Wow. I was just looking back at Delmon Young's minor league record to remind myself what he was at that point, and I have to admit that he was performing far better than I remembered: plenty of power and hard contact, speed indicators, better K/BB rates than in the majors. There was skill behind those tools, too. Then, at the age of 20, he stopped developing and started taking up the Caber Toss.

Looking at those numbers as an 18 and 19 year old, I can't help but wonder what I'd be thinking of a prospect like that today. I'm thinking there would be butterflies in my belly, a glint in my eye, and thoughts wondering if the tools supported the performance. My jaw would be shattered on the floor once I was told that the tools actually exceeded the performance.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#275135) #
The Jays potentially have 5 more years of Kawasaki if they want it

Theoretically, but let's face it folks. Kawasaki's about as likely to be on the roster five years from now as I am. I think he's loads of fun too, but...

Nice game. That's exactly what an ace is supposed to do. Stop the losing streak before it becomes a streak, beat a key division opponent. He's been up and down all year, but if today's outing means - as it might - that he's getting into that Zen place with his knuckler, he might run off six or seven of these games in a row.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#275136) #
Looking at strength of schedule is funny right now. Here are the the Top-5 highest opponent's winning percentage in all MLB so far:

1. TOR .523
2. TBR .519
3. BOS .516
4. NYY .511
5. BAL .509
Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#275137) #
Young's walk rate was going to be problematic - it was fine if he could hit .320 in the majors, but not many players can. But it's interesting that he never made any meaningful improvements in his game, despite his prodigious talents. Of course, over the years we've heard some less-than-glowing reviews of his thinking & personality tools; that's a considerable X-factor in any player's development.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#275140) #
It seems to me that the line between tools and skill can get pretty blurry. Is Sanchez more "toolsy" than Syndergaard because he has great stuff, whereas Syndergaard has better control? Or is Sanchez's better secondary stuff a skill that Syndergaard lacks? Was Dickey's dominance from 2010-2012 predominantly skill (mastery of a trick pitch) or tools (his exceptional athleticism and even his lack of a UCL)? What if instead of acquiring Chris Davis, the O's had targeted someone with more finely developed baseball skills and who made better contact?

Tools versus skill might be a convenient shorthand, but I imagine good GMs evaluate each player / prospect as a multifaceted whole when making personnel decisions.
Wildrose - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#275141) #
Good find China on the Dickey article in the Star.  With all the focus on the manipulating of the bottom of the roster, the story of Dickey's decreased velocity has got lost in the shuffle.

He seemed to have many knuckle balls in the 78/79 MPH range today, although my favorite was the 61 MPH special to Escobar.

Wildrose - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#275142) #
Gotta love Fangraphs, new article on Dickey and his velocity spike is up;

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/r-a-dickeys-encouraging-velocity-spike/

Chuck - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#275143) #
Johnny Mac has been designated for assignment. This could finally be the end. 12.5 MM earned. 2500 PA, OPS+ 60. 1 career WAR or 7, depending on who you believe.
JB21 - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#275144) #
AJ Jimenez named to the Futures game roster.
Ron - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#275145) #
"The Jays potentially have 5 more years of Kawasaki if they want it before he'd become a free agent"

I don't think that's true. According to an article posted on Sportsnet by Davidi "The Blue Jays are believed to be paying him between $500,000-$600,000 in the majors and about $12,000 a month in the minors, and hold a $1-million option on him for 2014 which if declined allows him to become a free agent."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/davidi-kawasakis-departure-bittersweet-for-jays/

I'm not clear on how service time works for players from Japan. For example, the Brewers signed Aoki to a 2 year + a club option deal after having the highest bid in the posting system. Let's say he plays 3 seasons for the Brewers, does he become a Free Agent after the 3rd season? Is he eligible for his 1st turn through the arbitration after accruing 3 years of major league service time?
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#275146) #
Theoretically, but let's face it folks. Kawasaki's about as likely to be on the roster five years from now as I am. I think he's loads of fun too, but...

Somebody once said that you have to be verry, verry slow to judge.  No, even slower than that. 

Kawasaki actually has something of a chance to be on a major league roster and contributing in 5 years.  The point is that no rational GM would make decisions about whether to keep him on the roster now based on his service time and his possible value 5 years from now.  If he were 5 or 10 years younger, it would be something to consider but for now his possible value as a 2nd or 3rd year arb player at age 36 or 37 is so speculative that one wouldn't worry about it.  If he follows a normal aging curve, he would likely be out of baseball, or at best, a fringy utility player. 
scottt - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#275149) #
Well, the Jays had many games against the weak Yankees and lost most of them, which in turn gave the Yankees a much better record than the one they deserved. Also, teams like the Angels could stop sucking for a series or two.

With Happ and Morrow poised to return after the all-star break, trading for a starter could be very expensive and kinda pointless.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#275150) #
Nonsense, acquiring a Starter is never a bad thing.
1) Esmil Rogers, as good as he is, sucked as a Starter prior to this year. He is however a very good reliever when used as such. 2009 - 159.0 IP; 2010 - 131.0 IP; 2011 - 110.0 IP; 2012 - 78.2 IP. The decrease in inning usage is worrying.
2) Chien-Ming Wang is 6 years away from his success in New York in 2006 and 2007, mostly fighting injuries. He's been very good since joining the team 11 June 2013. I just don't know how sustainable it is.
3) J.A. Happ has an option left and is being paid very well if he's in AAA. He's pitched well for us and should continue to do so

Happ and Morrow are still around 2-3 weeks away. If A.A. can acquire a good to very good Starter for more than just this year, he should go right ahead. You can't have enough good MLB caliber pitching in the system.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#275153) #
Kawasaki actually has something of a chance to be on a major league roster and contributing in 5 years.

He's got a chance, in that he hasn't retired or returned to Japan. But not anything resembling a good chance. I know, sometimes they surprise you, but right now the man's a marginal major leaguer who's already on the downside of his career. His best seasons were 3, 5, and 6 years ago. And five years from now, when he's 37? Players typically lose some of their value as they age from 32 to 37. Quite a bit of it, in fact.

Consider this random group of 37 year olds: Chris Woodward, Bubba Crosby, Ben Grieve, Bobby Kielty, Rob Macowiak, Dustan Mohr, Ramon Vazquez. There's not a lot of current major league value in that group and Kawasaki's much closer to that group than he is to the Berkmans and Konerkos, who've maintained enough of their value to hang around at age 37.

It's an old law in this game- the higher up you are on the mountain, the longer it takes for you to fall to the ground. No matter how slowly Kawasaki falls, he simply wasn't all that far off the ground to begin with.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 26 2013 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#275154) #
I suspect AA is always trolling for more starting pitching but the price is very, very high for it normally and I cannot see him going too nuts on it unless a surprise bargain comes along.

The big issue is 2B.  By a mile.  Checking sOPS+ (OPS+ vs league at that position) the 2B for the Jays are at 61.  Next worst is 3B at 82, LF at 88, CA at 92 with the rest of the positions being over 100 (ie: above the ML average).  JPA seems firmly in at catcher for better or worse, Cabrera in LF/DH mixed with Davis is set in LF, Lawrie at 3B (thanks to defense even if his bat stays poor).  That leaves 2B and it is worst by a mile.  Shift from a 62 to a 100 and that would be a drastic improvement that you couldn't get elsewhere with less than an elite player.

At 2B we've seen DeRosa (37 PA, 84 sOPS+ 242/324/333), Bonifacio (164 PA, 64 sOPS+, 224/242/353) and Izturis (89 PA, 45 sOPS+, 212/239/282).  Talk about scary bad.  Kawasaki's 662 OPS mixed with DeRosa's 657 sure looks good relatively speaking.

Now, who to trade with?  Milwaukee is far out of it (double digits out of both wild cards) and has Rickie Weeks at 2B who has a 96 OPS+ this year and 105 lifetime at age 30.  Signed for $10 mil this year, $11 next and an option for 2015 ($11.5).  He even has a bit of speed (120 SB vs 27 CS lifetime).  They might be willing although AA might need to send some contracts back to make it happen fiscally.  Worth a thought at least.
robertdudek - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 03:55 AM EDT (#275155) #
The only question worth answering is: are the Jays a better team with Kawasaki or with an extra reliever. The answer is: with Kawasaki.
John Northey - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 06:28 AM EDT (#275156) #
Actually, the question is... which is better for the Jays short term...
1) Kawasaki in the minors
2) Bonifacio with another team
3) Loup in the minors
4) Perez with another team
5) McGowan with another team

That pretty much was the choice to be made.  As others said, despite Gibbons reluctance to use him McGowan is not a throw away after all this effort to get him back.  Bonifacio was highly sought after in the winter by the Jays so I don't see them giving him away for nothing yet.  Perez has been a nice surprise and eats innings when needed.  Loup has been fairly effective.  That leaves Kawasaki who has been very effective but hasn't played one inning at 2B yet this year.  If on the roster he'd platoon with someone at 2B and backup SS at best. 

I was against Kawasaki going down.  But right now after going through all the options about 100 times I can see the benefit.  He is just a phone call away, can get work at 2B and 3B and maybe the outfield as well so he can build into a super-utility guy ala Bonifacio but with a better OBP and being decent at SS defensively (Boni is not decent anywhere from what we've seen).  Heck, with his enthusiasm I could see him working out at catcher to become the emergency option (every club has someone on the roster who is the emergency catcher even if he is never used that way - Rob Ducey used to be that many years ago).
scottt - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#275157) #
The answer is obviously Bonifacio with another team, preferably in the AL East.
85bluejay - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#275159) #
I like Kawasaki & he's probably undervalued, but all this sound and fury about Kawasaki reminds me about the uproar that occurs with so many fringe players that fans seem to get carried away with (Brad Emaus etc.) - it seems easy to say let's expose a Perez/ Bonifacio to waivers - who cares if they're claimed - same could be said for LInd earlier this year / Cecil last year  etc. - with this year serving as a prime example of the wide variability of player production from year to year (Kazmir/Lind/Cecil/Wang etc.), I'm for trying to keeps assets whenever possible - Kawasaki will get his chance again - to me, it's much ado about nothing. 
zeppelinkm - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#275160) #
Could Rickie Weeks be pulled away from Mil? He's got two years left, he hits LHP very well and Mil doesn't seem like they're doing anything this year. I know he fell out of favour a bit with his terrible start this year and he was platooning with Scooter (who was demoted yesterday), but he's been red hot recently. May be unavailable now, but seems like he would fill the hole at 2B nicely. And while he's owed $10,000,000+ each of the next two years, it's the same commitment window as what the Jays seem to perceive as their contention window.
Beyonder - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#275163) #
Agreed with that 100% 85bluejay. While I like a feelgood story as much as the next guy, I was getting quite tired of watching Kawasaki try to bojangle his way to a roster spot.
John Northey - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#275164) #
Weeks looks tempting to me as well.  Checking his defense though there might be a 'hrm' there though.  Only has played at 2B in the majors, -7.5 UZR/150 lifetime and -13.9 this year with a -18.0 last year so for over 1800 innings he has been pretty bad defensively.  For comparison Bonifacio is at -1.8 at 2B this year, -5.1 lifetime (984 innings) while Izturis is at -18.5 this year and 5.0 lifetime (2180 innings lifetime).  DeRosa is at 2.5 this year and -2.4 lifetime (2384 innings, but just 150 innings the last 5 years combined). 

So Weeks might be worse defensively than any of the 3 that we've been seeing recently.  Of course, his offense also would be heads and tails above what the 2 regulars have provided.  Not as good a choice as first thought unless there is some reason that the Jays feel they can fix causing his UZR to be so poor the past 2 years.

uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#275165) #
Not sure i love the insinuation that anyone who thinks kawasaki deserves to be on the team is just a silly fanboy overrating a crap player.

kawasaki has been a legit contributor this season. both fangraphs and b/r WAR have him as the 5th most valuable hitter on the jays this year.

in fact, the argument that he doesn't deserve to be up is much weaker - as its based on one smaller sample size of the first 100ab of his mlb career last year.

Kawasaki has been a legit contributor this year, as a good defensive infielder with a .337obp and some speed (also does more intangible things like consistent quality atbats, bunts, etc.) and a quality platoon split vs. RHP. and he could help fill what is by far the biggest black hole on the team this year.

You don't have to be some silly fanboy in love with his antics to appreciate kawasaki this year - and i'm not sure dismissing him based on the first 100ab of his mlb career last year is all that good an idea.

We legitimately made our team worse at the moment by sending him down. Kawasaki starting at 2B v. rhp is our best option right now imo (with a chance to be a legit above average option), and given the massive hole we dug ourselves this year i'm not sure we can afford to dismiss any upgrades, even marginal ones.
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#275166) #
In the last 2 weeks, the Blue Jays are 27th in bullpen innings pitched with 31. The Padres, the only other team carrying 13 pitchers, have thrown 45 innings over the same time frame, nearly 50% more.

uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#275167) #
...and to finish, kawasaki is by far more valable than any 8th reliever...and worth the risk of losing one of the backend relievers too.

and last note - only one year in his career has bonifacio hit better than kawasaki's 82ops+ this year.
Beyonder - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#275168) #
"Not sure i love the insinuation that anyone who thinks kawasaki deserves to be on the team is just a silly fanboy overrating a crap player."

Uglyone. The position you attribute to me is so dumb and unfair I'm surprised anyone would spend any time rebutting it. All I said is that I agreed with 85bluejay when he said that Kawasaki was a fringe player (which he is, certainly now that Reyes is back), and that I personally was getting sick of his song and dance routine. I didn't insinuate anything about other people's reasons for supporting Kawasaki.

I like to second guess management as much as the next guy, but when it comes down to making a decision about the last roster spot that calls for a tradeoff between current performance and future potential, I'm inclined to defer to the guys with their boots on the ground.
Ryan Day - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#275169) #
Kawasaki seems to have a reputation as just a loveable, wacky, scrappy guy who doesn't actually have any skill. But he's hitting about as well as Melky Cabrera. He's way, way ahead of either Izturis or Bonifacio, his actual competition - he has a 100 point lead over Bonifacio in OBP. He has an actual plan at the plate - even if he never got a hit or drew a walk, his ability to work a pitcher would have value. Fangraphs has him as a somewhat below average defender at short - which probably makes him a solid defensive second baseman.

I probably wouldn't be as bothered by Kawasaki's demotion if the Jays were playing a halfway competent 2B in his place. Even if Izturis were the starting 2B, I could handle it. But Bonifacio is just an awful, awful player this year, and barely even deserves a bench role.
Chuck - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#275171) #

it seems easy to say let's expose a Perez/ Bonifacio to waivers - who cares if they're claimed - same could be said for LInd earlier this year / Cecil last year  etc. - with this year serving as a prime example of the wide variability of player production from year to year... I'm for trying to keeps assets whenever possible

Lind was exposed to waivers last year. The fact that he has turned his career around and is still in the organization is not a testament to their unspoken recognition of the variation in player production (especially since his last good season was 4 years ago), but rather because no one else wanted him and the organization wasn't about to simply eat the balance of his contract.

Not every warm body is necessarily an "asset". Some not considered assets can turn things around (like Lind, like Cecil), but roster decisions have to be made based on probabilities, recognizing that there are no absolutes and you're going to be wrong sometimes. The odds were that Lind was not going to resurrect his career, but they were not 0%. The Jays got lucky here. They were not prescient. A non-asset has become an asset. The odds would also seem to not be in Bonifacio's favour. Yes, he could magically return to his 2011 status, but cutting him loose based on the belief that he probably won't would not be an unsound move.

dalimon5 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#275175) #
Comparing Bonifacio to players like Lind and Cecil when they were contributing NOTHING to the major league team is a joke. Bonifacio, when he is hitting poorly and fielding poorly still offers elite speed and position depth since he can play every position except catcher and 1B. Do you have any idea how valuable that is? There's one guy in the league who can do that and is above average and he's an integral part of the TB nucleus. There are many others in the league who can do that, but not above average, and any of those guys will be claimed off waivers because they offer value to their team even when they don't hit or field as best as they can...and this goes without saying...he has potential to field and hit.

I feel he's gotten a really bad rap because it's taken him time to adjust to the turf, adjust to the new team and he's looked fooled on a lot of pitches and bunt attempts. Fact of the matter is, everybody who wants Kawasaki over Bonifacio should be arguing that they want Chien Ming Wang over Brandon Morrow or Chien Ming Wang over Josh Johnson before his good start off the DL. If you're going to highlight a player's rough start and weakness please don't ignore their strengths including potential. If you do, then use that same argument against the other bunch of guys hacking it up making a lot more money. Geeze.
ayjackson - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#275177) #

Some not considered assets can turn things around (like Lind, like Cecil)

like Janssen, like Wagner, like Encarnacion, like Cabrera, like Rasmus, like Bautista, like Santos, like Davis....etc.

This organization is chalk full of performing assets that this fanbase and/or other organziations had given up on at some point in the past.  All the Jays have done this week, is buy themselves a couple more weeks (until Lawrie returns) without having to give up on the next one that turns it around.  By then, the issue may have resolved itself.  I can't fault management for this particular case of asset management

92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#275178) #
"and position depth since he can play every position except catcher and 1B."

Just because you can send a player to stand at a position doesn't mean he can play it. This statement is just as true for Jose Bautista.
Chuck - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#275179) #
If you're going to highlight a player's rough start 

Bonifacio has had a rough start... to his career. He is 28 and has 2000 PAs with an OPS+ of 78. I think the good ship potential has long since sailed.

As for comparing Bonifacio to Zobrist, ahem. Zobrist is actually a very good player and would be even if he could only play one position. Bonifacio is not a good player, even if he has the versatility to be not good at many positions.
Ryan Day - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#275180) #
For all Bonifacio's supposed defensive versatility, the Jays have barely used him anywhere but second. He's played 17 games in the outfield, but most of that came in late-April & early May when he was butchering everything hit to him at 2nd. And this is despite the fact the Jays have had a gimpy LF and a CF who could definitely use some time off against lefties.

Looking over his career, I'm not sure Bonifacio is "versatile", but that teams just keep trying to find him a position he can actually field.
Thomas - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#275181) #
I feel he's gotten a really bad rap because it's taken him time to adjust to the turf, adjust to the new team and he's looked fooled on a lot of pitches and bunt attempts.

Perhaps he's looked fooled on a lot of pitches because he's shown no evidence throughout large parts of his career that he can be an effective major league hitter?

If's it's taken him time to adjust, you'd think he'd be showing signs of gradual improvement as opposed to batting under .200 and putting up a .451 OPS in june. And how does his elite speed help the team when he's never on base? It's interesting how Kawasaki has adjusted to turf and to a new team better; hasn't looked fooled on nearly as many pitches; has proven himself a very capable bunter; stolen bases at a better percentage than Bonifacio without elite speed and has improved his monthly splits each month he's been on the team.

Since Bonifacio's shown no signs of "adjusting" any better, perhaps a team that is clearly in a win-now mode should side with the player who has shown the ability to adjust?

zeppelinkm - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#275182) #
Troy Glaus offered versatility to his teams because he could play SS as well. Not many big power sluggers can deftly fill in at SS. I'm sure he could have filled in at 1B as well. Heck, his range wouldn't have been great but with his big arm he probably wouldn't have been the worst LF in baseball history, either.

I agree with above, just because a guy can play any position poorly, that doesn't offer any value in and of itself. Bonafacio would do well to figure out how to play one position adequately.

I think Kawasaki should be in a platoon at 2B at the least and the active roster back-up SS. His offensive skillset was valuable to this team with it's SLG heavy offence. His ability to adequately play SS, something nobody else on the team can do beside Reyes, offered them flexibility and the ability to rest Reyes to keep him feeling good.
Beyonder - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#275184) #
Chuck. I think we need to be honest here about the limits of our knowledge. Throughout Lind's struggles management continued to insist that the potential he showed in 2009 was still there. So far this season, they have been proven right. They should get credit for that. I can't imagine what you could conceivably know that would put you in a position to say the Jays were lucky rather than prescient when it comes to Lind. If they Jays had no genuine belief that Lind would return to performing at a high level, they could easily have left him in AAA, or given his at-bats to someone else. Even this year, the Jays stuck with Lind through his early struggles.

If Lind's example doesn't illustrate the virtues of patience and conviction in your talent assessment, I don't know what else would count as an illustration.

Beyonder - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#275185) #
Chuck. I think we need to be honest here about the limits of our knowledge. Throughout Lind's struggles management continued to insist that the potential he showed in 2009 was still there. So far this season, they have been proven right. They should get credit for that. I can't imagine what you could conceivably know that would put you in a position to say the Jays were lucky rather than prescient when it comes to Lind. If they Jays had no genuine belief that Lind would return to performing at a high level, they could easily have left him in AAA, or given his at-bats to someone else. Even this year, the Jays stuck with Lind through his early struggles.

If Lind's example doesn't illustrate the virtues of patience and conviction in your talent assessment, I don't know what else would count as an illustration.

zeppelinkm - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#275189) #
Beyonder, if someone had claimed Lind last year... what would that say about the Jays belief in him? I would say they were lucky nobody claimed him last year, given that he has turned it around this year.

I wouldn't expect any management team to talk down about a current employee, ever. That's not going to help if the employee does have something left to offer or not, and it's not going to help that employees perception to outside 3rd parties. It is in their best interest to continue to promote that employees ability and potential, rather then publicly denounce him/write him off.

Chuck - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#275191) #
I can't imagine what you could conceivably know that would put you in a position to say the Jays were lucky rather than prescient when it comes to Lind.

But they tried to get rid of him last year. They took him off the 40-man roster. He was available to any other organization that was willing to assume his contract. No other team did. Yes, the Jays could have cut bait and eaten that contract, but they stuck with him rather than do so. Was that a sign of faith? Perhaps, but what else were they going to say out loud? Or was sticking with him simply a tacit acknowledgement that he was a sunk cost with no obvious candidates on the roster to take his place (recall the dubious Plan B to resurrect the ghost of Vladimir Guerrero).

If Lind's example doesn't illustrate the virtues of patience and conviction in your talent assessment, I don't know what else would count as an illustration.

Again, call it patience if you will. That sounds generous when the organization would have been happy a year ago to be unburdened of his contract. 

If, after his 2009 season, you were told that the Lind you would get for the next 4 years would be lousy for the first three and then very good in the 4th, would you knowingly take that deal? Would the anticipation of a very good 2013 be deemed an adequate payoff for the three lousy years? In a sense, those arguing the merits of "patience" where Lind is concerned would say yes.
Beyonder - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#275192) #
The fact that the Jays took a calculated gamble last year to sneak Lind through waivers doesn't imply that they had no genuine faith that Lind could turn things around -- what it means is that they thought Lind's market value was low enough that they could take that chance. They were right about that.

It's fine not to believe what management says. But look at what they actually do. The Jays fed at bats to Lind (to the frustration of almost everyone on this board) long after the statistical case had been made that he should not be an everyday player. In fact, I would have said that case had been made pretty conclusively for well over a year. Yet they still pencilled him into the lineup, even in a year like this one when the expectation was that the Jays would contend. Those are the actions of a management team that believes in its talent assessment in the face of enormous coutervailing evidence and popular sentiment. It shouldn't be so quickly written off as luck or fluke.
Ryan Day - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#275194) #
Regardless of the organization's true feelings on whether or not Lind could resurrect his career, they still reached a point where they decided he did not belong on a major league roster. They decided, at least short term, that David Cooper was a better solution, despite his limited upside. And they made this decision in a season when the team was not making any particular push towards contending.

So yes, it is possible that Bonifacio could regain his 2011 form. But right now, he's one of the very worst hitters in the major leagues, and doesn't even have the glove to back that up. That makes him a pretty poor fit for a contending team.
Four Seamer - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#275196) #
Okay, let's ignore the fact that Bonifacio, in over 2,000 career plate appearances, has accumulated a body of work thick enough to seriously undermine any suggestion he might become even a marginal contributor at the major league level.    I don't doubt that he will eventually start to play better than he has, as it would hardly be possible for a professional to play much worse.  But the question I'd ask, building on Chuck's observation that the payoff for the Jays' patience with Lind (if we can call it that) came at a very dear price (namely three wretched seasons), is how well will Bonifacio have to perform in the future to compensate for the damage he's doing to this team?  For as long as he performs at the level he has to date, every at-bat (and defensive inning) given to him is yet more capital invested in Project Bonifacio (which looks like a sinkhole), and has to be taken into account when calculating any return on that investment down the road, should he confound my expectations and become even a league-average player.  Make a bet if you like that the upside will eventually cover all the sins of the present, but it has to be acknowledged that simply performing to his career bests (which look like an extreme outlier, at this stage) will not be enough to vindicate the strategy of trading miserable performance in the here and now for the promise of better performance in the future.
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#275197) #
Beyonder - I wasn't responding directly to you, sorry if I offended you, but more to a run of comments both here and elsewhere suggesting that complaining about kawasaki being sent down was just silly homers overrating the charismatic guy. IMO, this isn't anything remotely like the obsession this fanbase had with a true replacement level guy like John McDonald for 550 games as a Jay (1.6war total over those 550gms).

Given how horrific a black hole 2B is at the moment, and given the massive hole we still have to dig out of this year to make the playoffs, I think it's more than legit to complain about sending down Kawasaki, just in order to keep a fringe 8th reliever in what is already one of the best 'pens I've ever seen for the Jays.

And a note from the tweeterverse:

Randy Numbers @randynumbers
Jays have won 12 of 14. Highest OPS over that time: 1. Encarnacion (1.122) 2. Kawasaki (.944). #greatmove
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#275198) #
Does this bullpen seriously need an 8th reliever?

Lovable old coot Jack Morris actually said on the radio that this might be the best 'pen he's ever seen....period. After giggling to myself, I thought about it and decided he actually might not be completely insane.

RP1: 39.2ip, 0.73whip, 1.59era, 1.91fip
RP2: 25.2ip, 0.70whip, 2.10era, 2.15fip
RP3: 36.1ip, 1.29whip, 1.73era, 2.75fip
RP4: 37.0ip, 1.00whip, 1.95era, 3.45fip
RP5: 22.0ip, 1.32whip, 2.86era, 4.41fip
RP6: 4.1ip, 0.92whip, 2.08era, 3.97fip (injured, in rehab)
RP7: 12.0ip, 0.92whip, 0.00era, 1.80fip

I mean only one era over 2.10? only 2 whips over 1.00? I can't think of any other 'pen I've seen that can match that. Even their fips are pretty impressive, and don't undermine their surface numbers much.

Extras:

RP8: 12.0ip, 0.83whip, 0.75era, 3.80fip (AAA: 20.1ip, 0.89whip, 0.89era, 1.53fip)
RP9: 4.1ip, 1.62whip, 4.15era, 9.51fip (AAA: 9.0ip, 1.78whip, 7.00era, 3.98fip)
RP10: 4.0ip, 1.50whip, 2.25era, 6.80fip (AAA: 29.1ip, 0.85whip, 1.84era, 2.79fip)
RP11: 3.2ip, 1.91whip, 7.36era, 1.14fip (AAA: 35.2ip, 0.98whip, 3.53era, 3.09fip)
RP12: 21.2ip, 1.48whip, 4.15era, 5.31fip (AAA: 15.0ip, 1.27whip, 3.00era, 4.20fip)
RP13: -------------------------------------- (AAA: 12.1ip, 0.97whip, 2.92era, 3.28fip)
RP14: -------------------------------------- (AAA: 16.2ip, 1.02whip, 2.16era, 3.38fip)

In order, these extras are Wagner, McGowan, Weber, Storey, Lincoln, Carreno, and Stilson. Should we really be making roster decisions based on the fear of losing one fringe reliever?
China fan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#275199) #
"....He's way, way ahead of either Izturis or Bonifacio, his actual competition - he has a 100 point lead over Bonifacio in OBP...."

I love Kawasaki too, and would like to keep him on the team if possible, but I am baffled by those who think it's an open-and-shut slam-dunk case. It's perfectly defensible to argue for his demotion, for several valid reasons:

1) he's not competing against Bonifacio, he's competing against Izturis. That's because Lawrie will be back soon, and Izturis is the starting 2B as soon as Lawrie returns. (Even in the brief couple weeks before Lawrie's return, Encarnacion and DeRosa are going to be spending some time at 3B, so the opportunities for Kawasaki at 2B will be relatively limited.)

2) Izturis is a better 2B than Kawasaki. If you like the small sample size of Kawasaki's recent hitting performance, you have to look at Izturis in the past few weeks too, and Izturis has been excellent in that period. If you don't like the SSS, let's look at the past two years: Kawasaki's OPS is 40 points below Izturis. Or look at their career numbers, and Kawasaki's OPS is 130 points below Izturis. People have been fixated on Kawasaki's past 185 PAs, but why would you ignore the evidence of last season, when his OPS was .459 and he was cut by the Mariners? I don't think we should be assuming that the past 185 PAs are the normal performance for Kawasaki in the future. The chances of regression are pretty strong. And defensively, why would the Jays take a chance on Kawasaki at 2B when Izturis has 279 major-league games at 2B?

3) Even if you think Kawasaki is competing with Bonifacio, the hitting numbers favor Bonifacio if you look at their career numbers or the past two seasons. Kawasaki only looks better if you assume that the past 185 PAs are his new normal, and if you assume that Bonifacio has no chance of returning to his career norms. And if you ignore their difference in base-running abilities too, of course.

4) Even if Kawasaki was kept on the team, he might get 2 or 3 games at 2B that would otherwise have gone to Bonifacio (before Lawrie's return makes it a moot issue). Even if Kawasaki continues to hit at his magnificent .662 OPS for those 2 or 3 games, compared to Bonifacio's lower OPS, this might produce, if you're lucky, 1 or 2 extra hits or walks for the Jays. Is that worth the permanent loss of a useful reliever such as McGowan or Perez? Or a useful bench player like Bonifacio? For an extra 1 or 2 hits over the next couple of weeks? Really?
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#275202) #
Yes, having a proper sized bench for 2 weeks is worth the loss of Juan Perez or demotion of Neil Wagner.
Hodgie - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#275203) #
A question to the masses....why is Kawasaki's performance last year being dismissed as SSS but not this season's?

Honestly, I can see both sides of the argument and at the end of the day I don't understand the emotional investment in either position. Both decisions are equally defensible and only if you view the facts in the vacuum of the winning streak can you make a definitive argument against the demotion. Of course, running a baseball team in a vacuum is impossible, not to mention it is hard to breathe.

Beyonder - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#275204) #
No worries at all uglyone. Sorry if I assumed incorrectly that your post was directed at me.
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#275206) #
Just wanted to take a look at the Orioles' dominant 2012 bullpen for comparison (min 10+ip):

O'Day: 67.0ip, 2.28era, 2.96fip
Johnson: 68.2ip, 2.49era, 3.25fip
Patton: 55.2ip, 2.43era, 3.26fip
Strop: 66.1ip, 2.44era, 3.59fip
Ayala: 75.0ip, 2.64era, 3.67fip
Lindstrom 36.1ip, 2.72era, 3.48fip
Gregg: 43.2ip, 4.95era, 5.04fip

Matusz: 13.1ip, 1.35era, 1.89fip
Johnson: 16.1ip, 1.10era, 2.79fip
Gonzalez: 11.2ip, 2.31era, 2.32fip
Hunter: 17.0ip, 3.71era, 3.45fip
Eveland: 22.2ip, 3.57era, 4.20fip
Arrieta: 13.1ip, 6.75era, 4.14fip
Socolovich: 10.1ip, 6.97era, 6.19fip
China fan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#275207) #
"....Yes, having a proper sized bench for 2 weeks is worth the loss of Juan Perez or demotion of Neil Wagner...."

That's your opinion. But it's clear, from recent comments, that Gibbons sees Wagner as being one of the team's top relievers, a valuable high-leverage guy. And he also puts a lot of value on Perez's ability to go multiple innings, especially for those blow-out games or extra-innings games. I'm prepared to accept his judgement on both of those pitchers. Gibbons, if nothing else, has been brilliant in handling the bullpen. I think he knows what works in the pen, and I trust him on this one.
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#275209) #
"In order, these extras are Wagner, McGowan, Weber, Storey, Lincoln, Carreno, and Stilson. Should we really be making roster decisions based on the fear of losing one fringe reliever?"

Some of us have been making this point for a long time. There's little reason to play shorthanded when you have numerous capable 8th relievers in Buffalo. There's also arms like Drabek, Hutchison, Perez, and Santos to add to the mix, as well as Morrow, Romero, and Happ making potential relievers out of Rogers and Wang. Not to mention the mix of SPs in Buffalo who could all handle the 8th RP just fine (Jenkins, Germano, Bush, Beck, Vargas, Redmond, etc.).
Mike Green - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#275210) #
Is that worth the permanent loss of a useful reliever such as McGowan or Perez?

If your goal is to accumulate assets, then the move has a possible justification.  You are not at risk of losing anybody permanently.  If your goal is to win in 2013, it's a whole other story.  You have an 8 man pen; your starters are giving you a decent number of innings.  You have trouble giving all your relievers enough work.  I thought that the goal at the outset of the season was to win in 2013, and I would have thought after an 11 game win streak, that drive to win would be renewed. 

By the way, the suggestion that Perez might be another Cecil is (I suppose) literally true, but it is almost in the category of "Kawasaki might be an All-Star at age 37" suggestions.  Brett Cecil had been a devastating college closer, was drafted in the supplemental round, moved to the rotation where he blew through the minors.  He had a pretty good first season in the rotation in 2010, and had lost velocity in the spring of 2011 (at the age of 24) without any explanation.  There was no injury.  He was moved to the pen and with the help of a new regime regained the lost velocity at age 26.  Juan Perez has bounced around the minors, struggled mightily with his control and now at age 34 has thrown 12 good innings (with only 3 walks).  In his minor league career, he has an ERA of 3.61 almost all in relief with over 4 walks per 9.  Yes, he may have found something, but there is no history like there was for Cecil. The odds were against Cecil (despite my faith in him), but they are much more against Perez. 
Ryan Day - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#275212) #
Or a useful bench player like Bonifacio?

This is the problem - Bonifacio is not useful for anything other than pinch-running.
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#275213) #
Juan Perez has pitched 2 innings in the last 11 days. He came into a 13-4 game and only went 1 inning because McGowan was just as desperate for work. He's very obviously a vital cog in John Gibbons' bullpen.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#275215) #
Did Lind get "abandoned" or was he reclaimable when "dangled" out for others to claim? I don't think he was unreclaimable at any time, but I might be not right. If you go to www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindad01.shl and check out game logs you'll see what I mean.

From 5 Apr. '10 to 11 Jul. '10 Lind sucked. From 16 Jul. '10 to 10 Jul. '11 Lind was vey good. From 14 Jul. '11 to 8 Jul. '12 Lind sucked. From 13 Jul. '12 through this date Lind is very good. Adam Lind's biggest problem was staying healthy and being stubborn. Since his breakout year in 2009, Lind has had only 1 1/2 years of being bad. The remaining time he has been very good.
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#275216) #
"This is the problem - Bonifacio is not useful for anything other than pinch-running."

and Davis is a better pinch runner than him anyways.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#275217) #
An argument can be made that Bonifacio should be on the roster over Kawasaki at the moment since Bonifacio would absolutely be claimed if he were exposed to waivers. He also has value at the trade deadline. However, there is perfectly ZERO argument to be made that he should be seeing regular playing time over Kawasaki. Its too bad we don't play in the National League (where Muno's skills would be more valued) or this wouldn't even be a discussion.

I'm also not sure why Bonifacio is the one we are discussing dropping. We have an 8 man pen where several members are currently bordering on being over-rested! Juan Perez has thrown 12 good innings at the age of 34, and is a 4th lefty in a bullpen with Oliver, Loup, Cecil, and for that matter Janssen's crazy reverse splits. He is the epitome of a replaceable part: I'm not even sure he gets claimed if we expose him to waivers right now. Even if he does get claimed, we have Lincoln, Jeffress, Carreno, and Jenkins down at AAA. Perez has no business on a roster at the expense of a someone who could dramatically improve our 2B situation.
China fan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#275218) #
"...He's very obviously a vital cog in John Gibbons' bullpen...."

As I've argued in another thread, you can't judge a bullpen purely by how often its members are used. If the 8th guy isn't being used a lot, that doesn't mean that the manager didn't want him available. If you think a reliever is useless when he isn't in a game, you would have to extend the same logic and argue that the bullpen was useless in yesterday's game because it wasn't needed. Should we criticize Gibbons for failing to demote a bunch of relievers before yesterday's game, so that he could have extended the bench? I mean, he didn't use those guys yesterday, so clearly they were just a waste of space, right?
Thomas - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#275219) #
Yes, having a proper sized bench for 2 weeks is worth the loss of Juan Perez or demotion of Neil Wagner.

I agree with your point about having a proper bench and, if I had been in charge when Reyes came off the DL, Bonifacio would still be on the team right now (but, if everything else held equal, probably not once Lawrie returned) as there would be seven relievers.

I'm sure I've made this point before, but I think there is a difference between Perez and Wagner. I don't know if Wagner is "for real" or not, but he serves a clear role in this bullpen that Perez does not. Wagner is the short-relief/setup option for a primarily right-handed portion of the lineup on a day when Delabar is unavailable or is being saved for later in the game. McGowan clearly isn't trusted in this role. Perez seems to be a duplicate of McGowan in that they're both mostly pitching to get work and their primary purpose appears to be long relief. I like Perez, but he seems to be anything but essential to the team right now.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#275220) #
The All Star Break is 18 days (17 games) away, with the initial Trade Deadline being another 17 days (1 ASG + 13 games) away. A.A. Is looking to make moves/acquisitions soon. He has few (almost none) prospects to trade. Relievers are a significant commodity in trades. (Kawasaki has zero trade value). But until you know what you really have, which relievers are tradeable assets?
China fan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#275221) #
"....Bonifacio is not useful for anything other than pinch-running...."

I don't agree with this statement, but it's worth noting that nobody would have even thought to make such a statement in the off-season. So this statement is purely a product of looking at the first half of 2013 in isolation and disregarding the rest of his career.
Oceanbound - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#275222) #
If the 8th guy isn't being used a lot, that doesn't mean that the manager didn't want him available. If you think a reliever is useless when he isn't in a game, you would have to extend the same logic and argue that the bullpen was useless in yesterday's game because it wasn't needed.

That 8th man who's rarely in a game is rarely in a game because his manager doesn't trust him to pitch in most situations, not because the starter's throwing a 2 hitter.
China fan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#275223) #
"....That 8th man who's rarely in a game is rarely in a game because his manager doesn't trust him to pitch in most situations..."

Clearly a logical fallacy there. The 8th man pitches less often than the other 7 relievers because he is considered not as good as they are -- that's obvious. But where is the evidence that Gibbons "doesn't trust him"? If the manager prefers to use another reliever, that doesn't mean he "doesn't trust" Perez, it only means that he is ranked 8th in the bullpen.

Also, it could be argued -- based on usage -- that McGowan, rather than Perez, is the 8th man in the bullpen.
dalimon5 - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#275233) #
CF,

You're always on point. Bonifacio will get better. He's played TWO fulls seasons with 500+ at bats in the show and he's hit well enough. If the Jays didn't think he could handle 2B or else be an above average back up at a plethora of positions then they likely would have one piece of their trade offering with the Marlins on this team or in the minors. My point is, I don't think they were forced to take Bonifacio, they wanted him. If Bautista hits like he should then it doesn't matter whether Bonifacio hits that much better. If we can have Chase Utley then that's one thing but Bonifacio, in the face of other options currently available, is fine. His speed is a core asset alone. I see him offering as much to the Jays current roster as a guy like Sean Rodriguez does to the Rays. Sean has great defence and versatility and potential with the bat that hasn't come through but could at any point. Boni doesn't have that much potential with the bat, but his hitting and fielding especially, are better than we've seen in the early going of the season. As a back up I still think Bonifacio offers more than Kawasaki. Contending teams regularly carry one or two players who don't have a bat. Colby isn't one of those guys this year so Boni and Arencibia are fine.

I'm more concerned with Melky Cabrera who has been terrible defensively and underwhelming with the bat.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#275236) #
The best case argument for Bonifacio, to my mind, goes like this.  He made steady progress from his arrival in the majors until 2011. In 2012, he suffered significant thumb and knee injuries which resulted in a loss of power and a loss of speed.  In 2013, he has made some hitting adjustments to try to hit the ball harder.  The result of these adjustments has been a significant deterioration in his plate control (which was formerly average).  It is possible that a return to the old approach could lead to a return to his career average plate discipline numbers, and that he could match his career .261/.319/.340 line going forward or something close to that (once you make adjustments for the league change).  With that speed and assuming average defence at second base, that would have some value.

I don't mind at all that he is still on the club.  It's having two OBP sinkholes unnecessarily in the lineup 4 days out of 5 for the time being that grates on me.  The personnel was easily at hand to have a very good offence, but instead, with the everyday usage of Bonifacio and Arencibia, it will be something less than that. 

Thomas - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#275252) #
My point is, I don't think they were forced to take Bonifacio, they wanted him.

So? It's entirely possible they made a mistake when evaluating his talent. I don't think anyone is arguing the Jays didn't want him or that the front office doesn't value him. They clearly do.

Contending teams regularly carry one or two players who don't have a bat

Just because some contending teams do carry those sorts of players, it doesn't mean that every contending team has to. Especially when that player isn't strong defensively.

scottt - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#275260) #
I would argue that half a season is a long time to wait for someone who was acquired to turn things around when you're trying to compete.

Bonaficio isn't Rios.

jerjapan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#275262) #
Is that worth the permanent loss of a useful reliever such as McGowan or Perez?

If your goal is to accumulate assets, then the move has a possible justification.  You are not at risk of losing anybody permanently.  If your goal is to win in 2013, it's a whole other story.

This is a false dichotomy ... your goal could also be to win in 2013 with asset accumulation as part of the strategy. 
China fan - Thursday, June 27 2013 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#275264) #
"....You're always on point..."

Thank you, dalimon5, but I'm the first to admit that I'm often in need of factual correction from the sharp-eyed crew here. I'm wrong as often as anyone else. But somehow from the cacophony of diverse commentary here at Da Box, the truth usually does emerge in the end.
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