Loup makes the most sense to be sent down when Reyes returns. It will get the pen to a more optimal 4 RH/3 LH arrangement and no one gets exposed to waivers.

from a sabremetric POV, Loup may make sense ... from a team POV, can't see it happening since he's out performed everyone but Jansen, Cecil and arguably Delabar.   I think the team may perceive this negatively, same as a demotion for Kawasaki.  Wagner, Perez or McGowan will go down before Loup. 

I still think the ideal solution to a potential roster crunch is trading Oliver, or packaging Loup and others for major league talent - Chase Utley? 

Perez will probably be lost if waived. McGowan probably deserves to go down - he's the least effective member of the pen, but he may be lost also. Wagner makes little sense. That will leave only Delabar and McGowan as the RH bridge between the starters and Janssen.

The trade route makes some sense, but I don't see it happening this soon. And if a reliever is lost on waivers, there is less depth to trade from.

Eric Thames has been DFAed.

There's a problem with the Reyes' recovery. John Gibbons has said Reyes was to play in the field all three games this weekend because of the Sunday Aft. game following two evening games. They would re-evaluate him then. Marty Brown said in an article that Reyes would DH today. Is the Reyes return delayed.

Josh Johnson verses Freddie Garcia - should be interesting.

The Phillies are not going to trade Utley. I don't see them blowing up the team mid-season, even if it made sense.

Also, Utley is playing decently enough that they could/should make him a qualifying offer (or whatever that 1/12m contract is called) and collect a draft pick or retain him on a 1 year deal. So he would cost an actual prospect in return.


Interesting that the Mariners give up on Thames. I guess is line in AAA is not enough and his defense is not that great, iirc. But I'm sure someone will pick him up for depth.

Jays signed Lydell Moseby. He's a pretty big guy but was it mostly a "favor" signing for the family? He played college ball at Benedict College and is listed as a C/3B/P.
http://www.benedicttigers.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=431

Reyes' return ... When Reyes returns one of the major beneficiaries will hopefully be Bautista who, with Cabrera with his gimpy hamstrings on first, has been seeing a lot more off speed breaking balls. Bautista should see a bunch more fast balls with Reyes' speed factoring into the equation.

To a man, this umpiring crew just loves the outside strike to LHB.

That was such an awful bunt that it was actually good.

Bonifacio just creating a run with pure speed. That was cool.

Freddy Garcia: really bad pitcher

I cursed Gibbons under my breath for giving Arencibia today's start.  It looks like it may not matter.

In the other thread, someone suggested that Loup is a logical choice to go down when Reyes returns because Loup has options.  From my perspective the fact that Perez doesn't have options and Loup does matters little.  The object is to win in 2013 and so the question is who is better.  The answer is likely Loup. 

How is it a sabermetric idea to option down one of your best relievers (Loup) so you can keep the rights to a 34 year old lefty with 37 career MLB innings who has terrible command and relies on deception? If Juan Perez is such a lock to not clear waivers, you DFA him and get a body back.

Thanks for throwing a nice BP session, Freddy.

Looks like Boni is throwing his hat into the infield ring....If there is a logjam when Reyes gets back what will it be when Lawrie is ready to return? Things have a way of working themselves out but right now it's looking like some tough decisions looming.

Not to mention Izturis is hitting .326/.341/.512. over his last 11 games (not counting today).

Gonna give Boni credit, he looks much better at 2nd these days.

I agree with some other posters, dropping a member of the bullpen and leaving these 3 on the team until Lawrie is ready would be my choice. A lot can change between now and when Lawrie is ready (assuming post-ASB), and either Perez/McGowan seem to be expendable.

I love the idea of dropping McGowan. I don't see any team taking on his salary, and he'll be able to get as much work in as he needs in Buffalo.

I see a team taking on McGowan's salary. Guy throws in the high 90s and has good pedigree. It's not like he's looked bad up here, just a bit rusty. A bottom feeding team like the Astros would probably take a chance and make him a closer or something. Two years at 1.5 million plus a reasonable option year isn't much in today's game.

Perez is the better choice I think. He's looked good but his track record and age (34) aren't particularly good. His last two outings make it seem like batters are catching on. He'd probably be claimed on waivers but I think he's less of an asset than McGowan.

a 34 year old lefty with 37 career MLB innings who has terrible command and relies on deception?

Yeah, he has terrible command, but a lefty who's FB averages over 93 mph with movement isn't exactly relying on deception.

Encarnacion has 5 triples in 4000 career PAs, yet he's "just" a triple shy of the circuit.

Touche, it's a risk you take, that's for sure.

From what I've heard, Reyes' first game should be on grass. That means Boston.

This is what Buck and Jack are saying as well. Tampa has a dirt IF so it shouldn't make a difference to Reyes, or am I wrong?

Not like Reyes has to play on a crappy turf infield during all his home games or anything.

Nice recovery after giving up 4 in a row.

Tampa has some dirt on turf, but just minimal.

Unless Tampa's infield dirt is so bad in comparison to Toronto's home stadium it doesn't seem to make sense to restrict the call up to stadium factors. Reyes is going to have to play on turf regardless.

a 34 year old lefty with 37 career MLB innings who has terrible command

It's much too soon to say for sure - it's just 11 innings - but I wonder if Perez has finally figured out that taking a little bit off his heater in exchange for better command pays off. As a Blue Jay, he's throwing 60% of his pitches for strikes. Which isn't very good, but he was at 57% last year and 56% the year before. And at this level, differences of 2 or 3 percent are a great big deal. (That's the difference between Casey Janssen, who doesn't walk anyone, and Steve Delabar who walks more hitters than anyone else on the team.) Perez hasn't been striking out as many major league hitters as he did in his previous two auditions, but he's not walking one out of four hitters anymore. Far more balls are being put in play, but most balls in play turn into outs. Bases on balls don't.

In Tampa's unsuccessful attempts to secure a new Stadium, there are three reasons why: 3) Terms of the lease, 2) The turf and 1) LOCATION. I didn't know we had so many Tampa fans on this site. Go feel both and decide. I'd be shocked if Reyes joins the team before Boston. I wouldn't bring back until the Team is back at Home.

I like Juan Perez, it' s hard to pitch in blowout. If he wants to discuss his choices/pitches, he will. Until then please remember he's the Long Relief guy.

I don't know which one of you did this -- but to the battersbox regular who sold his soul to the devil so that the blue jays could go on an extended winning streak -- I hereby thank you, and wish the very best up to and including that very moment when you must face Beelzebub again.

Pretty sure the entire city of Toronto already paid the penance in the form of the first round of the NHL playoffs. For the rest of Canada who are simply Jays fans= jackpot.

It was me.  Well worth it, and the bonus from the hedge fund will be put to good use, I assure you.

Watching Izturis in the battersbox from the left side yesterday, I thought that he reminded me of somebody but couldn't place it.  This afternoon, it came to me.  Roberto Alomar.  Izturis looks different than he did at the start of the season- is it more weight on the back foot, especially with less than two strikes? Looking at  Kawasaki and Izturis lately, I have to think that a hitting coach (Mottola or Murphy?) has had a good idea how to get both to change their approach of each with less than two strikes.  They both seem to be regularly looking to drive the ball, knowing that if the count goes to two strikes, all is not lost thanks to contact ability.  Whatever it is, I have believe that each of them has learned something that will stick. 

Not that this is really important but how does the turf hurt Tampa's chances of a new park? They don't get a new park because their lease doesn't let them out until 2027. The fact that there really isn't a better location available is secondary because there are some but they want out of St Petersburg which they can't because of the lease. The horrible turf is one of the reasons they want to move (I guess is that's what you meant to say).

Anyways, while this situation is bad for the Rays and Rays fans, you have to love the fact that this is one of the few (the only?) situation where the city had the better lawyers write up the contract. Normally it's the city and the tax payers who get screwed in these deals.

Bisons.com says Jose Reyes will still be with the team for tomorrow night's game.  He DH'd and went 2 for 5 this afternoon.

I was thinking the same thing Mike, especially on the home run swing the other night. I think it was the follow through when it hit me.

My thought of a couple of weeks ago that this is a 5 run/game offence is not looking quite so ridiculous now.  What I like about it is the balance- against RHPs, it is possible to field a lineup with 9 players with OBPs  over .300 (I think Izturis will be getting there shortly), significant power and significant speed.  Against LHPs, the lineup is not as strong but Bautista, Encarnacion, DeRosa and Arencibia is a very good power core and there should be enough runners on base to score quite a few runs. 

How is it a sabermetric idea to option down one of your best relievers (Loup) so you can keep the rights to a 34 year old lefty with 37 career MLB innings who has terrible command and relies on deception?

There is a statistical argument for keeping Perez over Loup, although it does have to do with maximizing assets long term rather than immediate performance.  Perez may have made some improvements as others in this thread have noted, and with Oliver and Cecil in front of them on the depth chart from the left, the difference between Perez and Loup may be pretty minimal. 

That said, I'd still keep Loup over Perez myself in a heartbeat, with team chemistry the determining factor in my mind. 

"My thought of a couple of weeks ago that this is a 5 run/game offence is not looking quite so ridiculous now."

April: 3.85 runs/gm (27gms)
Since: 5.21 runs/gm (47gms)

Esmil Rogers verses Jeremy Hellickson should mean advantage Rogers. Toronto and Tampa are basically tied -5 GBL. Toronto's on a roll, while Tampa is 4-8 over the last 2 weeks. Once again, advantage Toronto. Just in the last two weeks, Toronto has gained 5 games on Baltimore and 6 games on Boston, New York and Tampa. This is fun.

The Toronto Draft Signings has been updated with 21 picks signed. With 5 more expected to sign soon (top ten), how much is saved indicates who else could be signed. I like Jacob Brentz (LHP - HS) with his plus,plus velocity potential (wants 3rd/4th round monies); and Rowdy Tellez (1B - HS) huge HR power (wanted to be 1st round pick).

Team chemistry is an interesting thing.  On twitter and in articles I've seen a lot of comments from players praising Kawasaki and how the players would join together to pay his salary to keep him around.  He is one very popular guy it seems.  Haven't seen anything like it for Bonifacio or Izturis.

So for the battles we see going...
4 infielders fighting for up to 3 positions - 2B and backups. 
8 relievers fighting for 7 or 8 slots.

Based on usage patterns it is clear that McGowan is the least trusted of the relievers, next is probably Oliver as since he came back he has had aLI of sub 0.8 every time except the one he blew.  Perez was getting only high leverage until he blew a save (thanks to an error) and his 2 appearances since have been low leverage.  Those 3 are the ones I suspect Gibbons would be least unhappy about losing.  Wagner has been used a LOT - 9 times with 2 or fewer days rest, once with 5 days and his first appearance so I gotta figure Gibbons will fight to keep him. 

It seems clear to me that the ideal ones to cut are Bonifacio & McGowan to make room for Reyes and Lawrie (whenever he is ready) with Oliver high on the list as well.  However, I also understand the fear of losing them for nothing so I'd bet AA is busy trying to make a trade with someone who need relievers and backup infielders and/or speed.  For guys with options...ick...if it was a choice between Loup and Wagner I suspect Gibbons would pick Wagner to keep and Loup to send out but it is a choice I'm sure he'd rather not make.  For the rest of the team only Kawasaki fits the 'has options can be sent down'. 

One name that hasn't really come up is Mark DeRosa which is a bit odd.  He is old at 38, has a 97 OPS+ but in his last 10 games has collapsed (167/231/208) and few would say he is strong defensively (not horrid, but not great either).  I wonder if the Jays could dream up a DL stint for him to open space temporarily for Reyes. 

While tough roster choices is a fun thing (beats having it be simple to say 'dump him') it also is tough because the last thing AA wants is to let go of a guy and see him tear it apart with someone else.  I dream of the Jays stealing Jurickson Profar from the Rangers but that would take a killer set of prospects I suspect not just spare parts in Bonifacio and Oliver (I could hear the laughter from Texas if that was offered).

Matt Boyd (LHP, SR, Oregon State) and Chaz Frank (OF, SR, North Carolina) were eliminated from the College World Series today. The should be signing soon. UCLA and Mississippi State start the 3 Game Final on Monday. Kendall Graveman (RHP - SR) and Chad Girodo (LHP - SR) are playing for Mississippi State. Last Game (if needed) finishes Wenesday. So by this weekend the remaining Seniors should sign and A.A. can start with getting picks 1&2 signed.

It seems clear to me that the ideal ones to cut are Bonifacio & McGowan...

I disagree, but more to the point, I don't think there's any way Anthopoulos gets rid of Bonifacio, not after the huge foofaraw made over him at the time of the trade, and I also think it's pretty unlikely that after paying McGowan for a year-and-a-half on the current contract to recover, they're going to let him go the minute he's back on the team and healthy.

One name that hasn't really come up is Mark DeRosa which is a bit odd. He is old at 38, has a 97 OPS+ but in his last 10 games has collapsed...

Ten games means nothing, and again, there's no way they sign a guy like DeRosa for his leadership, etc. and then get rid of him half-way through the season. And he's performing well enough offensively in any event -- better than Kawasaki, in fact (97 OPS+ vs. 85). Trading Oliver seems the best solution to me. He hasn't been particularly effective, and though that might just be a sample size issue, it's also possible that he's losing it a bit. Plus, he's not going to be back next year so if you're going to cash him in, now's the time. If you can't get anything decent for him, I'd be okay with sending Loup down. He's got a 3.43 xFIP this year, which is good, but the way everyone else is performing, it wouldn't be a big deal. Not worth losing McGowan over, in any event.

Well, by 'clear' I mean that McGowan and Bonifacio are the worst available options at their positions at the moment and aren't showing signs of improvement. 
For example, in the infield battle...
Izturis: June: 278/307/417, past 10 912 OPS, lifetime 92 OPS+
Bonifacio: June: 180/196/240, past 10 536 OPS, lifetime 78 OPS+
Kawasaki: June: 244/367/439, past 10 1.119 OPS, lifetime 65 OPS+
DeRosa: June: 276/323/414, past 10 439 OPS, lifetime 95 OPS+

So by any measure Bonifacio comes in last or 2nd last.  He is cold, has been cold all year, and hasn't shown signs of coming out.  Izturis has shown signs of recovery and lifetime suggests he can sustain 1/2 decent numbers.  DeRosa only sucks in the last 10 measure.  Kawasaki only in career which was minimal before this year (115 PA over an entire season). 

Sadly, Bonifacio is a big favorite of management for some reason.  He does have great speed, even if he isn't using it as well as needed to justify his roster slot (10-3 SB-CS vs Kawasaki's 7-1 and Davis' 14-1).  He can play multiple positions although he doesn't play any of them well.

Thursday is the deadline to decide.  It'll be interesting to see if AA takes the 'easy' way out (sends down Kawasaki as he has options), the 'near easy' (sends down Loup or Wagner who both have options) or the hard way (trades or risks losing on waivers someone like Bonifacio).

Magpie theorized that Arencibia's performance starts to flag when he gets a little tired.  If so, the early warning signs were present over the weekend with several moments of inattention behind the plate.  Fortuitously, the Rays send Hellickson tonight, Matt Moore on Tuesday and then Dickey throws for the Jays on Wednesday.  A perfect time to go Thole, Arencibia, Thole to get the handedness advantage and give Arencibia a break...

This idea about playing the best 25 man roster regardless of the possibility of losing assets on waivers is a nice theoretical sentiment, but in practice all teams manage and massage their roster to avoid losing those assets (eg. in April, Esmil Rogers likely only remained on the active roster because he was out of options) - so, I expect the Jays to make a move that doesn't expose anyone on the active roster to waivers  even if may seem unfair to fans - also, someone could sustain an "injury" buying more time. 

The 'injury' method seems likely at this point.  As I mentioned several Jays seem to want Kawasaki to stay around and the pen is going well so I suspect someone will be 'hurt' to make room - maybe McGowan as who'd doubt that one? :) 

Cabrera is my choice to go on the DL to make room for Reyes, as it wouldn't surprise anyone if the Jays announced he is injured.  Mix-and-match Davis and Bonifacio (with Kawasawki at 2B) in LF for the interim.  Hell, put EE or Lind out there if they can handle a game once and a while.. not too much strain on Lind's back out there, is it?

What player would willingly go on the DL? I especially don't see Melky being willing, considering he's playing every day and almost certainly wants to keep playing every day.

It's funny.  Melky was running much more freely over the weekend, and made some good catches. 

I was at all 3 games this weekend, and Melky looks much better to me in the field than he did early in the season.

I agree with everything TangledUpInBlue said.

McGowan is missing a lot of bats and his SIERA is down to 3.77. He looks promising to me, unless you think a 50% hr/fb ratio won't regress.

I dream of the Jays stealing Jurickson Profar from the Rangers but that would take a killer set of prospects

I don't think it would take prospects at all. The Rangers are contending, so if they're going to give up their elite prospect, they'll want serious MLB talent back. Which probably doesn't fit with the Jays if they're still attempting to contend.

"Sadly, Bonifacio is a big favorite of management for some reason."

How do we know this? They watch him play just as we do. When he was acquired, he probably was a favorite with the hope he could come close to replicating the numbers he put up in 2011, but it's getting to the point where that season is looking like an outlier. Not only is he a defensive liability (as he always has been), but the fact he's not hitting and has even stopped talking walks negates his speed, which is his only real tool. I'm sure he's being shopped, but the way he's playing now, what would any team give up for him?

"...in April, Esmil Rogers likely only remained on the active roster because he was out of options...."

It was Jeffress, not Rogers, who stayed on the roster at the beginning of the season because he was out of options. I think Anthopoulos and Gibbons were always fans of Rogers and expected him to contribute this year. AA had been targeting him since last year. Rogers had a slow start to the season, but I doubt that the Jays would have considered demoting him, even if he had options.

On a positive note, I think that there is a decent chance that we will look back at the 2013 Blue Jays and say that it was indeed the best club in the American League.  Mind you, the 1987 Blue Jays were likely the best club in the American League and we wouldn't want a repeat of the (anti-) climax of that year...

The bullpen is rested tonight, and Delabar could use some work. 

Well, the 11 game streak is the longest ever, tied with one of the same length in 1987 and 1998. 
1987's was June 2nd to June 13th moving the Jays from 2 back to 3 ahead.  Unfortunately they had an 8 game losing streak not long after (June 28 to July 5th).  Then from September 20th to 26th then had a 7 game winning streak followed by a 7 game losing streak to end the year.  Sigh.
1998 was August 27th to September 7th moving the Jays from 29 back to 23 1/2 back but just 5 back of the wild card at the end of the streak vs the 12 1/2 they were back before it started.  They went 10-8 after that, finishing just 4 games out of a wild card slot. By far the best season since 1993.

So basically the 2 times they did this before were the 2 best non-playoff years pretty much.  Lets hope this time a playoff slot is in the future.

Btw, Jays now 2nd best attendance bump vs last year, only Washington doing better for year-over-year with 4,198 vs the Jays 3,765 per game.  Next is Baltimore at 3,026 per game.  I think Toronto fans were desperate for a winner - even the hope of one.

Yesterday was a "sellout" of only 45k, because they only count paid tickets; there were way more people there. There are no available pairs for Canada Day so I'm curious to see the attendance figure. I don't know how Washington does their counting, though.

I dream of the Jays stealing Jurickson Profar from the Rangers but that would take a killer set of prospects I suspect not just spare parts in Bonifacio and Oliver (I could hear the laughter from Texas if that was offered).

In other breaking news, the St. Louis Cardinals will not trade Oscar Tavares for Emilio Bonifacio and Darren Oliver.

Didn't MLB make a rule that all teams had to count their attendance the same way?

McGowan is missing a lot of bats and his SIERA is down to 3.77. He looks promising to me, unless you think a 50% hr/fb ratio won't regress.

...the 50% HR/FB will regress, as will the .125 BABIP.  It's 3.1 freaking innings, not meaning to get too technical and all.   He pitched June 8, 9, 15 and 23, throwing no more than an inning. 

There is no question that he still has the velocity and enough movement to be effective, if his arm is all right.  You can use one pitcher in the pen as a low-leverage long man, going 2-3 innings once or twice a week.  That is probably a good role for McGowan. I really don't see the use of several long men, which raises the question Bo Diddley asked an eon ago- Who Do You Love?

Over at Fangraphs, an analysis by Jeff Sullivan today has some cautionary notes about the occasional meaninglessness of long winning streaks. Some bad teams have had lengthy winning streaks in the past. Luckily, most of the streakers have been good teams. But there's no guarantee that the Jays, yet, are in that category.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-blue-jays-and-a-history-of-streakers/

"It's 3.1 freaking innings"

That's the point. People are saying he isn't performing well.

"This idea about playing the best 25 man roster regardless of the possibility of losing assets on waivers is a nice theoretical sentiment, but in practice all teams manage and massage their roster to avoid losing those assets (eg. in April, Esmil Rogers likely only remained on the active roster because he was out of options) - so, I expect the Jays to make a move that doesn't expose anyone on the active roster to waivers even if may seem unfair to fans - also, someone could sustain an "injury" buying more time. "

when those "assets" are names like Wagner, Perez, Bonifacio, Kawasaki, DeRosa.....well, it would be a shame if they chose to make the team worse just to avoid the "risk" of maybe losing one of those "assets".

"50% HR/FB will regress, as will the .125 BABIP"

I say again, his SIERA is 3.77. If we're going to expose McGowan to waivers based on his performance, let's use the right metrics to evaluate.

ERA? Um, no.

SIERA? Probably not.

Scouting eye? Likely, at this point. His stuff is filthy. He looks promising to me.

chinafan - I agree with him 100%. This hot streak is no more meaningful than April's cold streak. The only thing meaningful is that we're currently in contention for a playoff spot.

ayjackson - McGowan simply hasn't earned a spot. this year he has a 1.50whip/5.40era in MLB, 1.78whip/7.00era in AAA. And sometimes it's good to remind ourselves of McGowan's career line - 31years old, 378ip, 1.39whip, 4.81era.

The trouble with McGowan right now is that Gibbons doesn't trust him with anything but the lowest leverage innings, and it's a mystery as to whether the team thinks his health allows him to be used in long relief.

Right, ayj.  Somewhat filthy stuff.  Questionable control.  Very questionable endurance.  The unfortunate part is that he has not really had significant game action since 2011.  Ideally, he would have had 15 appearances and 30 innings by now, before the club had to make a judgment on whether it kept him or Perez (or Loup, if the club decides that his performance over the last 67 innings is a mirage)

when those "assets" are names like Wagner, Perez, Bonifacio, Kawasaki, DeRosa.....well, it would be a shame if they chose to make the team worse just to avoid the "risk" of maybe losing one of those "assets".

No one is suggesting they send Bautista or Cecil down. I like Aaron Loup. But he's pitched no better than Juan Perez. Also they would not be sending Loup down to Guantanamo Bay. If things don't work out, he can be back in 10 days (or less in case of injury). I prefer the Jays keep productive depth, as long as it makes sense, so we don't have to endure any more David Bush, Justin Germano or Edgar Gonzalez performances. When Lawrie returns, things may change for someone like Bonifacio, who hasn't played at all like an asset.

"Also they would not be sending Loup down to Guantanamo Bay."

Hold on a second. Teams are allowed to call up relievers from AAA? Shocking.

I just read somewhere on the Internet that the Jays are considering moving their GCL team to Guantanamo Bay. Be careful where you're shipping the Loup-er.

Y'know, this is fun.  A year ago the big talk was all about the assorted starters going down.  Complaining about Lind and Escobar hitting poorly.  People pushing for Snider to come up, for Gomes over McCoy, Laffey being a rotation mainstay, a bench of Mathis, Vizquel, and Francisco...

The rotation I put down on the 24th for the Jays was Alvarez, Laffey, Romero, Cecil, Chavez.  Think about that one for a minute.  Mixed with Mathis, Vizquel and Francisco on the bench. 

Oy was that bad.  Yet somehow the team was just 2 games out of the 2nd wild card.  Baseball is one weird game.

"I like Aaron Loup. But he's pitched no better than Juan Perez."

25yr old Aaron Loup has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this year, and not based on a significantly unsustainable babip either (37ip, 5.4k/bb, 57.3gb%, .266babip, 1.00whip, 1.95era, 2.86siera).

In fact, he's bee one of the best relievers in all of baseball since the day he was called up (67ip, 6.9k/bb, 56.4gb%, .271babip, 0.96whip, 2.26era, 2.83siera).

Sending him down because some old trick lefty finally put up 5 decent appearances at age 34, so we can also keep a 31yr old with a 6+era at MLB and AAA this year, and another 29yr old career minor leaguer is, well, ludicrous.

"Ideally, he would have had 15 appearances and 30 innings by now, before the club had to make a judgment on whether it kept him or Perez"

Why 30 innings? Perez only needed 11 for you to overlook his underwhelming career.

I'm betting on a Juan Perez DFA. All the talk about McGowan from management is really positive, and I doubt they're putting too much stock in Juan Perez's 11 inning streak. I think demoting Loup would not be taken well in the clubhouse. We don't really need an 8 man pen so I'm thinking it'll be a reliever that gets cut.

Some of these discussions (Loup vs. McGowan vs. Perez; or Bonifacio vs. Kawasaki) are fun, but it is difficult to make statistically-based arguments in favour of any of them.

We all talk about small samples sizes -- and we all know them when we see them -- but it is helpful to remember what an adequate sample size looks like. This is what Fangraphs has to say on the topic. The list below sets out the thresholds at which you can meaningfully begin to rely upon various statistics (i.e. the point at which the statistics begin to measure what they are intended to measure, as opposed to reflecting random variation).

Offense Statistics:
• 50 PA: Swing%
• 100 PA: Contact Rate
• 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
• 200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB
• 250 PA: Fly Ball Rate
• 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
• 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
• 550 PA: ISO

Pitching Statistics:
• 150 BF – K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate
• 200 BF – flyball rate, GB/FB
• 500 BF – K/BB, pop up rate
• 550 BF – BB/PA

What is amazing about this to me is that for most relievers, even an entire years' results does not provide a large enough sample to be able to comment meaningfully on certain metrics.

Sorry, ayj. We have a misunderstanding.  I would prefer if the club DFAed Perez.  I was saying that if the club wanted to make an informed choice about the potential of two pitchers ideally suited to the "last man in the pen" role, it would be better if they had more innings from McGowan.  The same is true for Perez, of course, but he at least doesn't have the injury concerns.

To sum up, I like Janssen, Cecil, Delabar, Loup, Wagner and Oliver occupying the first six spots in the bullpen.  It is fine if they keep McGowan in the 7th man role.  I like Kawasaki as the club's second baseman going forward, with Izturis and DeRosa sharing the third base role, and Bonifacio getting some second base work and Davis getting some outfield work (you want to have one of them on your bench at all times).  Now if they can get Thole more work than 1 day in 5, everything will be coming up roses.

Speaking of which, I predict another 11 games in a row.  Why?  I saw my shadow facing east this morning at 8 a.m.  How? I am walking on the east side of the street in the shadow of a 2 storey building.  The sun reflects off a six storey building on the west side of the street and hence a shadow facing east.  Maybe I am oblivious, but I have never seen this before.

Juan Perez probably makes the most sense at this moment in time.  McGowan is more likely to be claimed and the two of them are the least used relievers.  Both McGowan and Perez seem to get into a game every 5 days or so. 

Perez: 2 games on 0 or 1 days rest, 3 games on 6+ days plus his first game.  3 of the 6 times were with a tie (2 times in extras) or 1 run lead, once with a 3 run lead in the 4th inning and twice with a 5+ run lead. 
McGowan: 1 game on 0 days rest (his 2nd game back), then 5 and 7 days rest after that.  Came in during a tie once (extras), down one once, then the other 2 were 5+ run leads.

Basically both are extra inning and blowout pitchers right now.  Having one of them for that purpose is fine, but two is only if you are having serious staff issues which, 2 weeks ago, the Jays did have but not anymore it seems. 

So yeah, I've come around to the idea of sending the hot AAAA pitcher back to AAA and hoping no one claims him but if someone does, well, such is life.  Last year he'd have been safe as a churchmouse here, but this year at this time his role is that of a yo-yo.

I'm guessing Kawasaki gets demoted. He'll be largely superfluous once Reyes is back. However, he'll be a valuable asset to have in Buffalo in case one of the middle infielders gets injured. In any event, he'll be back in September. I doubt AA wants to deplete his hard-won pitching depth.

The Phillies are talking about moving Utley and Michael Young. Does Oliver, Boni and a lower minor league prospect get one of those guys? They are expensive but Utley would plug the hole at second. The Jays have often traded with the Phillies. I think it sounds realistic.

For what it's worth, Kawasaki has 18 career PA as a second baseman in the majors, compared to 274 as a SS. Not sure whether he spent any significant time at 2B in Japan.

Does anyone know if Kawasaki can actually handle 2B duties? He played 10 games at 2B for the Mariners last season -- did anyone see any reports on whether he was adequate? I'm familiar with the argument that his somewhat underpowered arm will be better at a shorter throwing distance. But will he need much practice with the 2B fielding angles and double-play pivot? Has he done any such practice in recent days or weeks?

Greenfrog, BR says Kawasaki has played only 10 games at 2B in the majors, and most of those games were just two or three innings. Only a total of 39 innings at 2B since the beginning of last season.

The Phillies are talking about moving Utley and Michael Young. Does Oliver, Boni and a lower minor league prospect get one of those guys? They are expensive but Utley would plug the hole at second. The Jays have often traded with the Phillies. I think it sounds realistic. No. There's nothing of value in that deal for the Phillies. Oliver is a 43 year old reliever. He only has value to teams in the playoff hunt.

Any player who can handle SS competently can handle 2B; it's a much easier position. Kawasaki would obviously need to practice the pivot and angles, but these are things that are very easily accomplished with 30 minutes and a fungo bat.

Utley is an ideal trade target, but it's going to take prospects, not the scraps of the Jays roster you don't want.

If I were the Phillies, I would ask for Nolin and Pillar.

If I were the Jays, I'd laugh my ass off and click accept instantly.

Michael Young could really help this team vs. LHP, but it would cost you the intangible value of Mark DeRosa.

My guess is, with a little practice, Kawasaki could be a better fit at 2nd than SS. His arm is probably his weakest defensive tool, and that would be less noticeable at 2nd.

Kawasaki also has more than 100 points of OBP over Bonifacio, who's not much of a fielder to begin with.

My guess is, with a little practice, Kawasaki could be a better fit at 2nd than SS. His arm is probably his weakest defensive tool, and that would be less noticeable at 2nd.

Kawasaki also has more than 100 points of OBP over Bonifacio, who's not much of a fielder to begin with.

Bingo.

92-93, you seem to be confusing Utley with someone who isn't highly injury-prone, an impending free agent, and earning $15M this year. Utley has had an excellent career, but at this point he's a potentially useful two-month 2B rental that carries significant injury risk. The Phillies aren't going to pry away Sanchez or Stroman for him.

Or I just properly recognize the value of a guy who projects to be a mid-rotation SP at best and a fringe outfielder prospect?

Ruben Amaro isn't a GM who tends to consider his team to ever be out of it, and there's a compensation pick if Utley doesn't accept the 13.5m or whatever it is.

"Sorry, ayj. We have a misunderstanding. I would prefer if the club DFAed Perez."

Fair enough. I agree with this, assuming AA can't work a trade for someone.

"To sum up, I like Janssen, Cecil, Delabar, Loup, Wagner and Oliver occupying the first six spots in the bullpen. It is fine if they keep McGowan in the 7th man role. I like Kawasaki as the club's second baseman going forward, with Izturis and DeRosa sharing the third base role, and Bonifacio getting some second base work and Davis getting some outfield work (you want to have one of them on your bench at all times). Now if they can get Thole more work than 1 day in 5, everything will be coming up roses."

Well said.

If Utley is healthy over the next 5 weeks, his value will be very similar to Beltran's when he fetched the Mets Zack Wheeler.

92-93, if you're saying that Amaro wouldn't accept that package for Utley because he's a GM who thinks his team is never out of it, then why would he trade Utley at all, let alone for prospects (which is what you say he would require)?

I actually think a mid-rotation SP and a 24-year-old overachieving fringe regular / fourth OF prospect (325/371/460 career in the minors), both of whom could contribute in 2014, is about the right return for Utley, although as a name-brand player he may end up commanding a bit more.

Lastly, whether Utley will receive a qualifying offer is a pretty big question mark, given his age and injury issues. His total games played the last five seasons goes like this:

2009: 156
2010: 115
2011: 103
2012: 83
2013: 47 (the Phillies have played 76 games to date)

My last question, which I posted under my own name (ogator), for some bizarre internet glitch, appears under the name of "Paul D." I would never trade Pillar and Nolin for either of Michael Young or Chase Utley. Both of those players are fractions of what they used to be and both of those players are extremely expensive. I think offering the Phillies salary relief and a guy like Bonifacio and maybe some prospect of much less value than Nolin seems fair but Nolin seems a very high price to pay for taking on that kind of salary for a half a season's worth of a player whose name may be significant but whose talent is really questionable at this point in time.

A big issue with Utley is the Jays want to contend long term and 2B will be a hole in 2014 as well unless there is a prospect I'm forgetting about charging through the system.  What the Jays need is a miracle ala the Vernon Wells trade where someone is desperate for relief help (or gets excited about raw speed) and would trade to get a few of those types of players who also has a top second base prospect who is ready to play acceptable ball in the majors today and solid in 2014 and beyond while having a solid secondbaseman in the majors right now.

The only match I was able to think of is Texas with Profar while Ian Kinsler is currently at 2B with a 123 OPS+ and signed through 2018.  Kinsler was hurt for a month, thus giving Profar some PA but is back with a 705 OPS since returning but skip the first two games (0 for 8) and you have a 859 OPS.   Meanwhile their pen has lots of wildness and a great 1-2-3 punch but might want Oliver back along with other stuff.  Their LF situation is poor with the regular hitting for a 75 OPS+ so odds are they'd want Gose (if they feel he is ready) or Cabrera or Rasmus or Davis (or combination).  Remember, Profar had an 820 OPS in AA last year at 19 years old and 807 in AAA this year - both hitters leagues but still... So basically if they asked for any combo of those guys (or mix in any reliever, even Janssen and by combo I mean pick as many as you want) and I'd say 'sign here'.  20 year olds who can hold their own in the majors are extremely rare, especially at premium defensive positions but Texas is at the end of their contending window and need wins now not 2-3 years from now.  Meanwhile Profar is an improvement on what we have now at 2B and the pen is a strength and if Gose or another outfielder (other than Bautista) goes bye-bye the Jays can adjust.

Kawasaki played both 2b and 3b when he was an up-and-comer in the Japanese minor leagues, though he eventually settled in at shortstop once he arrived in the JPL to stay.

I really like Juan Perez. I think he's lots of fun to watch, and I think it's possible he may have figured something out. I don't think he'd make it through waivers. But keeping him over Aaron Loup? My mind, boggling. My jaw, dropping. And other types of dumbfounded surprise.

My last question, which I posted under my own name (ogator), for some bizarre internet glitch, appears under the name of "Paul D. I think that's my response to your comment, not your comment. (For some reason when I comment in Chrome the space between the original post and my comment is removed).

John, Profar is one of the top young players in baseball. I'm also having dreams of acquiring him, but you're not getting him for relief help and 4th OFs. Getting Profar would take a serious package.

Profar would be a great add but he would require a haul in return, assuming the Rangers would consider moving him. After the Chris Davis trade, I don't see Texas moving any significant positional talent for relief pitching. Also, is Texas really in "win now" mode?

Some comments about Texas's farm system and/or organization as a whole, from earlier this year:

"one of the best systems in the game" (BP/ organization ranked #2 in baseball)

BA: #3 on organizational talent rankings list

"...setting the Rangers up well to maintain their contender status for several more years" (Keith Law / #9 farm system in baseball)

"System in transitional phase but still among the best in the game" (Sickels / farm system ranked #4 in baseball)

Part of me wonders if AA is delaying activating Reyes because he's trying to work out some bullpen/bench trade. But I realize it's more realistic that they simply want to make sure Reyes is 100% ready to go, because he suffered a very serious injury.

The Phillies are talking about moving Utley and Michael Young. Does Oliver, Boni and a lower minor league prospect get one of those guys? They are expensive but Utley would plug the hole at second. The Jays have often traded with the Phillies. I think it sounds realistic.   No. There's nothing of value in that deal for the Phillies. Oliver is a 43 year old reliever. He only has value to teams in the playoff hunt.   Loup, Boni and a lower level prospect though ... solves the logjam in the pen.  Oliver isn't too much of a drop-off from Loups, with Cecil available for the key situations.  Loup's performance, salary and options make him a legit commodity.  Boni plays second in the NL, where he has had success, and we have plenty of lower level prospects that the Phillies may want to take a flier on.  Utley solves our problem at 2nd.  In this tight division, a trade for an impact veteran might make the difference between watching and playing in october.     

"92-93, if you're saying that Amaro wouldn't accept that package for Utley because he's a GM who thinks his team is never out of it, then why would he trade Utley at all, let alone for prospects (which is what you say he would require)?"

That's precisely why it would take real prospects to land Utley, not fringe guys. I spoke to a colleague in Philly, a big baseball fan, this weekend and he wasn't even aware Utley was an impending free agent. In other words, it isn't something being plastered all over the sports media and talk radio, whereas most Jays fans know that Josh Johnson isn't signed for 2014. If, 5 weeks from now, the Phillies are clearly out of contention (unlikely) it might be more likely Amaro pulls the trigger, but even then he's only going to do it if it's the type of Beltran for Wheeler trade that is easily explainable to the fanbase. I'd be absolutely floored if AA could land a healthy Chase Utley for a pitcher who some pundits thought wasn't even in the Jays Top 10 and an outfielder who everybody agreed he certainly wasn't.

when those "assets" are names like Wagner, Perez, Bonifacio, Kawasaki, DeRosa.....well, it would be a shame if they chose to make the team worse just to avoid the "risk" of maybe losing one of those "assets".

 

Esmil Rogers was an 'asset' like some of the names above at the start of the year, and he's as key as anyone in the winning streak.  You maximize your roster not to keep Juan Perez, but too avoid giving up on an Esmil Rogers.  Of  course, watch him go and turn into a pumpkin tonight ...  

I see them as 'win now' due to A) being in first place, B) average hitter age of 30, C) they've been in contention for a few years but cannot get the ring.

Checking them closer though I see A) a very young pitching staff, all but one of the top 5 is 26 or less with the 5th being 29. B) a 24 and 25 year old are key parts of their everyday lineup

In truth, they are setting up much like the Jays want to - for the long term with key pieces signed long term.  A Tampa Bay with money.  Will they be crazy enough to trade Profar?  I'd send top pitching prospects plus others to get him myself as 20 year old everyday players are extremely rare in the majors and hard to get.  If you can get one you do whatever you can to do so.  If I was Texas though I'd probably see if Kinsler is willing to go to LF so both can play.  At 31 Kinsler is getting old for 2B (many top ones saw their careers drop fast around 32/33) and a move might extend his career.

With the emergence of Matt Carpenter as a 2B, Kolten Wong could match your criteria, John, and would be more feasible to acquire, relative to Profar.

how about we flip a reliever over to the Rays for Kelly Johnson?

In the "riding the hot hand until it can't catch anymore department", Arencibia gets the start again tonight.  Can I go all DePodesta on somebody?  

Thole should start Wednesday and Saturday. Gibbons probably sees Arencibia has handled Hellickson okay so he keeps him in there.

I do think you want to stack your lineup with RH power hitters against Hellickson. I'd probably play it this way, and I'm not one of the bigger Arencibia fans here.

Of course that's just going by my sense of Hellickson's style (fastball/change/curve) and his 2012 splits; apparently he's been thrashed by lefties this year. So whatever.

a healthy Chase Utley

Over the last 3.5 seasons or so (2010-13), the Phillies have played 562 games. Utley has played 348 (62%) of those games. Sure, Utley will command more if he enjoys an uninterrupted run of health from here on out. But this is all speculation. It could happen; there is a good chance it won't. Based on what we know today, I would be surprised to see a team trade a top pitching prospect for Utley. But it's all a question of supply and demand. His stock may soar, plummet, or noodle around somewhere in between.

Eric Thames has been DFAed.

Alex wins that one.

Arencibia is 5-17 with 1 walk, 3 Ks and no homers off Hellickson.  I don't think that cuts either way. Arencibia lost focus behind the plate a couple of times over the weekend. In April, it started with that and then spiraled into the offensive end of his game.  I am hoping that this does not recur.

As for Hellickson, his career splits are typical for a right-hander, much higher K rate against RHBs, much higher W rate against LHBs.  obp, obp, obp...

The only argument that makes any sense to me is that the club has been winning.  Of course, when the club was losing, management took the same approach. 

It's a VERY strong argument.

Everybody on here might agree that batter vs. pitcher matchups are irrelevant (I don't), but what's important is that players and managers certainly don't think that way. Gibbons might have a hard time explaining to Arencibia why he's taking him out of the everyday lineup during an 11 game winning streak when JP has handled that pitcher just fine in the past.

Thole should start Wednesday and Saturday.

That's what I'd do. If the day game after night game, Dickey starts (want Thole) and Buehrle starts (want Arencibia) fell out differently, I might do it differently.

Just realized something: the Jays were able to win 11 consecutive games without the benefit of a single inning from three pitchers who are collectively receiving $19-million in salary this season.

Everybody on here might agree that batter vs. pitcher matchups are irrelevant (I don't)

You and me against the multitude! And Earl Weaver, too. We few, we happy few...

JPA Last 7gms: 27pa, 3hr, 6rbi, .360avg, .407obp, .800slg, 1.207ops

We want to take that out of the lineup for Josh Thole?

Just a thought - if Utley is too expensive, Rollins might actually be the sneaky good Phillies target.

Getting Profar would take a serious package.

So, not this guy, then?

We want to take that out of the lineup for Josh Thole?

Yep.  Long view, JPA is what he is.  Short view, if you ask me, he doesn't look great right now.  Yeah I know that he hit 3 homers recently. I think that Hellickson has the control to throw him pitches off the plate and down, and the good sense not to throw him a strike unless he absolutely has to. Give Arencibia a day off and let him get ready for Matt Moore.

And as for batter/pitcher matchups, I can assure you that Earl Weaver would not (in the computer age) have been terribly impressed with a BABIP-induced decent line for Arencibia against Hellickson over 17 PAs.  He probably would have been impressed with the 7 PA for Arencibia against Ogando- 2 homers, 3 hits, 0 walks, 0 strikeouts.  That I can at least buy into.

Arencibia has a walk against Hellickson? He must really have him figured out!

Truly though, neutral decision Thole v Arencibia for me