Checking B-R Preview of the game, Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.96 ERA vs the Jays in his last 5 games, going 5+ each time, with his 2 games this year being 1 run and 3 runs allowed.  Of his last 7 ML starts just once did he allow more than 3 runs.  Might be a tough day for Jay hitters.  Wang, on the other hand, has allowed 3+ in his last 5 vs Baltimore, 3 allowing 5+ including his last 2 but his last game against them was April 2009 and the next most recent was 2007.

Loup & Oliver are extremely well rested as is Perez.  Wagner and Delabar have had 2 full days off so should be chomping at the bit to get in there.  That's a lot of good relievers ready to go.

Melky!  Running through pain, and smiling when it pays off.

Good lord, Muni almost hit two homers in two games

It's not an accident.  He now is trying to turn on pitches sometimes.  Keeping pitchers honest is an essential element of his offensive game. 

Does Bonifacio have options? I can't see this team that's trying to win it all carrying Boni and his 200 BA over a beloved "scrappy" guy with a nice walk rate (and more SBs)

Bonifacio not having options is the only reason we're having a conversation about who's the odd man out.

The club can carry Bonifacio in the utility/pinch-runner role if they go back to a 7 man pen.  Perhaps Gibbons may feel more confident about his starters with Wang looking like he might be good for 6 innings pretty consistently.

Bonifacio does not have options. But he does have a role on this team -- as a bench guy, utility guy, and pinch-runner. And he assumes that role as soon as Reyes and Lawrie are both back. In fact, he might even assume that bench role as soon as Reyes is back, because Gibbons hinted today that Kawasaki can play 2B. He also acknowledged that a 7-man bullpen is sufficient these days, with the starters going deep into games. So there's now a significant chance that Perez or Wagner will be demoted to make room for Reyes, with Kawasaki remaining on the team.

I guess it's a tough choice. I think Kawasaki has played his way into a ML role. The 8 man bullpen isn't really necessary, it just sucks to demote a guy who's doing as well as, well, anyone currently in the bullpen. I'll bet it's Perez we lose, he's older (34), doesn't have a great track record (nice ERA in AAA this year, but with the usual high walk rate), and got relatively hit up the last couple of times out.

Interesting pull decision by Gibbons here.

Wang is a ground-ball machine. His ratio today: 11 ground-outs, only 2 fly-outs. He needed only 83 pitches to get through 6.1 innings. I'm a little surprised to see him out of the game already.

Another nice start from Wang. The Blue Jays are now 9-1 since Wang joined the rotation. #WangFactor?

Joseaynaro.... nice little streak they got going.

That was another big Kawasaki AB even though the book won't show it.

Wow. I was actually questioning Gibbons judgment for a minute -- pulling his starting pitcher after just 83 pitches, using Loup for a single batter, going to Oliver rather than Delabar -- but I should never have doubted him. Ten wins in a row. Incredible.

I`m starting to think that Florida's disappointing 2012 season was a failure to find replacement players like Kawasaki, Wang, Wagner, etc.

That and hanging on to Bonifacio.

So, what does this team do at the trade deadline?

If my calculations are correct, Kawasaki now has the 3rd-highest OBP on the team. There's got to be some way to keep him on the team, no?

When is the last time a division trailing team won 10 in a row and remained in last place?

Any way to check that?

Gregor Chisholm makes an interesting argument in favor of demoting McGowan to make room for Reyes. He argues that McGowan is unlikely to be claimed by any other team, because of his salary. But even if he is claimed, it would reduce the team's payroll and free up a roster spot. More importantly, the Jays aren't in rebuilding mode any more. "It’s just simply not possible to experiment like that at the big-league level when every game is important to getting back into the race."

http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/

Even at the risk of having a Chris Carpenter situation. I think McGowan might make some sense. In my mind Kawasaki is our starting 2b when reyes returns.

In my mind Kawasaki is our starting 2b when reyes returns.

It's also worth noting that Kawasaki may be in for some (positive) regression to the mean. His BABIP is .258 despite a batted ball profile that should lead to a higher BABIP; his GB% of 65.5 would actually rank highest in the majors if he qualified, and GBs turn into hits more often than FBs. His LD% is a more pedestrian 18.5, but still, almost all the GB% leaders have BABIPs over .300. If Kawasaki's BABIP jumped .50 points, his OPS is suddenly over .750. I don't watch the games: does it seem like he's getting unlucky on GBs?

And when Lawrie returns?

Some of the pitching moves were puzzling, but pulling Wang with the Major League HR leader is the most frustrating as Davis couldn't hit him. So how many times in close games has Oliver choked?

It's not so much about winning 10 games as where you were to start and who you played. On June 9th this Team was 7 games behind Tampa, 8 games behind Baltimore and 11 behind Boston. You should check later tonight as Boston, New York and Tampa are still or yet to play. They are, right now tied with or 1 game behind Tampa, 4 behind Baltimore and 6.5 games +/- 1 behind Boston. Oh, they gained at least 5 games on New York. Success in the next 8 games means major division moves forth coming as the Jays move up.

Davis smashed balls in his first two at bats. Made mucho sense to use a lefty reliever there, IMO.


as for the jays....yeah, this team is pretty good.

New York and Tampa played this afternoon.  The Jays are now in a virtual tie with TB and I think are percentage points ahead.

"Bonifacio does not have options. But he does have a role on this team -- as a bench guy, utility guy, and pinch-runner."

Isn't the utlity guy role filled just fine by Derosa/izturis, and the pinch-runner role filled just fine by Davis?

If Travis Ishikawa got to face Wang a third time, he was going to hit a homer off the jumbotron. As long as Gibbons avoided that matchup, I couldn't complain too much.

I too would've just let Wang face Davis in the 7th. Gibbons was playing with fire letting Oliver face the top of the O's lineup in the 8th with no safety net; it would've been less scary if Loup and Wagner were throwing behind him. DO's crucial pickoff of McLouth spared Gibbons a few nervous moments.

"Gregor Chisholm makes an interesting argument in favor of demoting McGowan to make room for Reyes."

given that our manager is too scared to ever use him, this seems like a no-brainer to me.

Career Stats for Kawasaki in Japan only indicate he played SS every 842 games. Last year with Seattle, he played another 38 games (246.0 innings) at SS, 10 games (39.2 innings) at 2B and 1 game(1.0 inning) at 3B. He is 32 this year, just a wee bit old to be learning a new position. As A.A.'s going to acquire a 2B, why is everyone worried about someone with options left?

So how many times in close games has Oliver choked?

As a percentage of high-leverage times in his career?  Oh, right.

And if you are Gibbons, and you do not believe that a verteran like Oliver has the talent any longer to get you out of a tight scrape, then you speak to AA and get him shipped out.  Otherwise you give him the chance to do what he has done increasingly well over one of the longest careers in baseball.

And if you think that this was a 'choke', what about that down and away pitch to Teagarden do you think was misguided, exactly?  Where would you have advised him to place it instead?

And then, I wonder how you would define 'choke'?  Surely there is a strong suggestion in that word that the player in question loses their cool in the crunch and falls short of their capability when the chips are down.  Have you ever - ever - seen a player  more cool, calm and collected than Darren Oliver?

But then, I forgive you this post.  Sometimes even the most skilled baseball observers, like baseball players, make a mistake now and again.

No safety net? Delabar hadn't pitched yet... was actually surprised they didn't use him in the 8th.

Yeah, Delabar was there. He never got up, though (or I never noticed from 524). When Machado was at bat with McLouth on first and one out, I'm pretty sure the bullpen was quiet. The plan seemed to be to let Oliver pitch, and whatever happened would happen. At that point they only had four pitchers (plus Cecil) left. In that scenario, if you want to carry 8 relievers, you're probably the kind of manager who's hesitant to shoot through more relievers unless absolutely forced to...

Should add that I didn't realize Oliver had been back for almost two weeks now. At the time I it was a bit early (dangerous) to throw him into such a high-leverage spot, but that was his fourth appearance since coming back, which isn't so bad.

In 2013, contrary to wishful thinkers, Darren Oliver might be slipping. 20.0 IP, 20 H, 9 R / 6 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB /1 IBB, 12 Ks, and he was to pitch in late innings? He had a great career, but this is this year.

He's given up Runs in 8 games, 5 of which were loses. He's pitched in 8 1-run games, 4 of which are loses. As for today's game, people usually hit HRs when a pitch is in a favoured location, it's hard to hit them otherwise.

All I wanted to know was how many times this year has Oliver tied or lost the game for this Team. I think it's more than what is normal for him. The games where he buried the Team deeper I'm not considering.

According to B/R, this is the fourth time this year Oliver has allowed a tying or go-ahead run.

APR 3: entered tied, left down 1
APR 14: entered tied, left down 1
MAY 11: entered ahead 2, left tied
JUN 22: entered ahead 1, left tied (today)

Lefties are killing Oliver, they're hitting .417 against him this year. Last year, they hit .234. That is one hell of a reverse split.

Thank You, uglyone and #2JBrumfield, that's what I was looking for. Now I can worry when he pitches.

Toronto is 21-17 At Home and 16-19 Away. It looks like Home and Away numbers will improve and soon. With 8 Games remaining and 13 Wins to date in June, can they win 20 or 21 this month?

Comparing the "choke" performance of the Jays' end-game members of the bullpen crew.  Entering today:

Janssen: 25 appearances, 18 times ahead (left 1 time tied/down) & 6 times tied (left 1 time down) = 2 "chokes" out of 24 = 8.3% "choke rate"
Cecil: 31 appearances, 8 times ahead (left 0 times tied/down) & 6 times tied (left 1 time down) = 1 out of 14 = 7.1%
Loup: 29 appearances, 11 times ahead (left 1 time tied/down) & 7 times tied (left 1 time down) = 2 out of 18 = 11.1%
Delabar: 31 appearances, 10 times ahead (left 1 time tied/down) & 9 times tied (left 1 time down) = 2 out of 19 = 10.5%
Oliver: 20 appearances, 8 times ahead (left 1 time tied/down) & 4 times tied (left 2 times down) = 3 out of 12 = 25.0%
Wagner: 10 appearances, 4 times ahead (left 0 times tied/down) & 4 times tied (left 1 time down) = 1 out of 8 = 12.5%

Most of the relievers on several occasions have come in with 2+ runs lead and given up at least 1 run (but not the lead) after they exited the game, but not a choke in this context (most of those games ended up as wins for the Jays; helps when you have Casey to close the door).

Imperfect, as relievers can significantly contribute to a choke without having reflected as such above (e.g. pulled after walking the bases loaded and his relief gives up the walk-off grand slam), or came in a bunch of times with a 5 run lead and only gave up a run in each instance in mop-up duty, but at least I found it interesting.

After today, Oliver goes to 4 out of 13 = 30.8%.  Loup (despite hitting the only batter he faced), Wagner, and Janssen all decrease their choke rate a bit.

Scottt asks:

"So, what does this team do at the trade deadline?"

What could we give Texas for Jurickson Profar? Texas needs production at 1st to make a serious run, and has Kinsler/ Andrus locked up. Lind will be on the MLB leader board soon, and seems like their 2013 missing piece. Question is, who else? I'd shop Oliver to his former team who remembers his capabilities fondly, and likes his veteran experience for a playoff run. Bonifacio offers them a super-sub with pinch-run speed, a lots of people in baseball like him for some reason, so sell and keep Kawasaki. That's Lind, Oliver, Bonifacio. Who else?

Texas really does need to fix the 1B situation, and their competitive clock is ticking with that roster.

As for Lawrie, I submit that maybe he doesn't come back to the Jays when healthy. Public reason, he needs the kind of playing time he didn't get in Spring Training, so he's in mid-season form for the stretch run. People will also see it as a message to him, and I'm not averse to that, either. Call up Anderson if we need a 3B for some reason, until Lawrie has been in AAA a month or so.

I'm a little surprised to see him out of the game already.

I missed the game, was the roof open? Because I spent ten minutes walking around today. Hot, hot, hot and sticky, sticky, sticky. Tired me out.

Darren Oliver might be slipping. 20.0 IP, 20 H, 9 R / 6 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB /1 IBB, 12 Ks

Geez, what's the friggin' problem? Pitchers do give up runs, all of them. Get used to it. Sandy Koufax gave up runs at about exactly the same rate.

That's Lind, Oliver, Bonifacio. Who else? ... Texas really does need to fix the 1B situation, and their competitive clock is ticking with that roster.

I'm not sure that 1B is quite the hole for them that you think it is. Mitch Moreland, now back from injury, has hit very well this season. And even if Profar were on the market, he'd fetch a return far more significant than a package like this.

Are you kidding me? There is no way Texas trades Profar for that package. Try something like Lawrie, Sanchez and a third piece minimum.

The Dome was closed Magpie. It was nice when the game started but started pouring around the 3rd inning.

Thinking about how Bautista has been ice cold and that Reyes is coming back Monday, I took a look at how the hitters have been doing over the 10 game streak. We all knew Kawasaki was on a roll, but.. wow! He's been the best hitter, even with EE and Lind absolutely on fire. Izturis has also been great. Arencibia and Rasmus are getting the job done but it ain't pretty, while Davis has been great in his role. The rest have been shockingly bad.

Here are PA, AVG, OBP, and SLG for all the hitters over the streak. The team has scored 5.7 runs per game.

27 .333 .440 .714 Kawasaki
40 .314 .400 .714 Encarnacion
40 .359 .375 .692 Lind
39 .316 .333 .526 Izturis

31 .207 .258 .586 Arencibia
31 .148 .258 .519 Rasmus
19 .389 .368 .389 Davis (5 steals)

41 .211 .268 .263 Cabrera
41 .150 .171 .300 Bautista
24 .167 .167 .250 Bonifacio
12 .182 .182 .182 Thole
17 .125 .176 .188 DeRosa

The two games so far this weekend have been great, I was in attendance for both and will be there today. The crowds are finally starting to liven up a bit, even if it's a little embarrassing that Kawasaki is the guy who elicits the greatest response from Toronto sports fan. The Dome should be jammed today, and their next home game is Canada Day which, according to the Jays box office, is already sold out save for a few single seats in the lower level.

I think it made sense to question Gibbons' management yesterday, but that it was also easily explainable and you really could've gone either way. There were merits to keeping Wang in there, and there were merits to recognizing he's your fifth starter and you should be happy handing over a 2-1 lead to the bullpen with Chris Davis looming. It was very interesting though that he used both Loup and Oliver over Delabar, and I would've liked to see Delabar in the 8th there. When Oliver came out I turned to my friend and said that he wasn't ready for such a high leverage situation, I can't remember the last time he handled one cleanly. Whatever though, fans can't expect the bullpen to be flawless every time out there.

As for McGowan, it would make zero sense to me for the team to put him on waivers. I think the 2m he is owed beyond this season is incredibly overvalued if people just assume that's going to prevent all the other teams from picking up a bullpen arm with his potential. If the team stuck by him for this long they better see what he has before letting him go. I'm an opponent of the 8 man bullpen, but I would send down Wagner and/or Perez long before considering letting McGowan go at this point.

There have been multiple opportunities the past 2 games for Gibbons to do different things with his lineup if he wasn't using a short bench. I hope people noticed this.

So you're not only against the 8-man bullpen, but even with a 7-man 'pen you're willing to use up one of those 7 spots on a reliever who hasn't earned that spot? Leaving us with only 6 dependable relievers?

"only 6"

Tee...hee...hee...

And... it's clear from previewing this that it will be misinterpreted. I'm of the firm belief that 6 is plenty of dependable relievers. Maybe it's even too many.

"So you're not only against the 8-man bullpen, but even with a 7-man 'pen you're willing to use up one of those 7 spots on a reliever who hasn't earned that spot? Leaving us with only 6 dependable relievers?"

You're finally starting to understand. With a good rotation I'd have a 6 man rotation, so having the 7th being Dustin McGowan doesn't bother me at all. There were so many things Gibbons could've done this weekend if he had an actual bench of 4 players, and even more if it was 5. The 8th man in the bullpen this weekend was entirely useless. The 2 innings McGowan & Perez pitched could've easily been handled by your 7th reliever.

In a similar vein, I think Canada should get rid of this whole bizarre notion of car insurance. Also, house insurance. Sometimes you can go for many months without needing that insurance at all. For that whole period of time, it's entirely useless! You waste all this money on insurance premiums, for months and months, and it's completely useless, except for maybe once every year or two. You could take that same money and spend it at the shop and you could buy all sorts of nice things with it. Insurance is useless. Get rid of it.

Even though some of us think we are smarter than every team in baseball, there are situations where teams do not put themselves in optimal situations. The 8 man pen was needed at times this year, but is certainly not needed now. And sometimes insurance is not needed. If I own a car worth $500, do I really need collision insurance?

I agree, hypobole. The 8-man pen isn't needed now. My point is that sometimes it's a useful thing to have -- and we can't judge its usefulness by whether it is actually utilized in a game situation. Insurance can be valuable to have around, even when it isn't actively being used every day.

The Buffalo Bisons are the Blue Jays insurance policy. If they ever needed a Juan Perez, it's right there waiting for them.

What 92-93 said! Buffalo is there for a reason, just make sure you have guys with options (we do) and shuffle through AAA. No need for an 8-man pen, just optimize your guy with options.

Related question- I know that Tim Wakefield (and Candiotti/Hough for that matter) used to be able to pitch on a moment's notice with little regard for the standard 4 days rest. Can Dickey do that, or is he too close to maximum effort with his knuckler?

That's exactly the problem. The best relievers often don't have options. You can't cycle all of them through Buffalo, because you run the risk of losing them. Count up the list of Jays relievers in 2013 alone who were exposed to waivers or free-agency when they were demoted. It's a lengthy list. Some were disposable, others would have been better to keep. Sure, you can always find a replacement, but sometimes you're replacing your 8th-best reliever with your 12th-best reliever. Not always optimal. (And that's why there's such a debate now about whether McGowan or Perez or Wagner should be demoted to make room for Reyes. If it was an easy and obvious choice, there would be a consensus here. There isn't a consensus at all.)

"The Buffalo Bisons are the Blue Jays insurance policy. If they ever needed a Juan Perez, it's right there waiting for them."

they can't use the Bisons if their bullpen guys have no options left. In your scenario, whenever they "needed a Juan Perez", they wouldn't be able to call him up because McGowan has no options.

Of course they could call him up by demoting one of the extra bench players with options left....but then horror of horrors they'd be back to 8 relievers.

8th relievers are supposed to pitch only in low leverage situations when the rest of the bullpen is too tired to handle the innings. Whether or not it's Juan Perez or any of the arms in Buffalo makes very little difference to the outcome of the game.

The ability to PH for mediocre hitters at the bottom of your lineup, on the other hand, is very important.

"In your scenario, whenever they "needed a Juan Perez", they wouldn't be able to call him up because McGowan has no options."

Huh? The Blue Jays can call up Storey, Carreno, Stilson, or Lincoln, who are all pitching reasonably well. Heck, they can use Vargas, Germano, or Bush. The identity of the 8th RP is really not that important.

It's not who they call up that's the issue, it's who they send down.

Unless you're advocating losing Loup for 2 weeks any time they need an 8th reliever.

Loup, Delabar, or Wagner actually. For the 3 times a year (at least 1 of which would be injury related) that we might need that 8th reliever.

Yes I think Buffalo works just fine as an option

And in that hypothetical desperate situation where a 7 man pen just won't do, we can't send somebody down to AAA, there is no injury causing this situation and there are no trade partners- then we just option Kawasaki for the 2 weeks.

June 8,9,15,23 is when McGowan has pitched this year. I see him as a rule 5 type guy. IMO he cannot show his best without regular work. He should not get regular work if it is a risk in close games.

"then we just option Kawasaki for the 2 weeks."

so when necessary, we should go with 8 man pen.

got it.

wait, what were we arguing about again?

When necessary, yes. Over an extended period of time, not a chance. I'm talking like 5 days out of an entire season... Maybe...