Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game Thread

Come on swing it, 1 - 2 - 3 - now we come to the pay off.

Juan Nicasio (4-2, 4.86) gets the ball for Colorado. The Jays go with southpaw Mark Buehrle (3-4, 4.66) and his assortment of funk at 7:07 pm Eastern.

@BlueJays lineup: Cabrera-LF Bautista-RF Encarnacion-DH Lind-1B Rasmus-CF Arencibia-C Izturis-3B Bonifacio-2B Kawasaki-SS

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 03:02 PM EDT.

Game Thread — 6/19 vs. Colorado | 83 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#274531) #

his assortment of funk

This works for me. Papa Mark has got a bag of tricks and I feel good.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#274547) #

Madam, that's Adam.

CeeBee - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#274548) #

Adam thanks us all for our support. I'm not going to go back and find out what all I said but whatever it was , I take it back.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#274549) #

whatever it was , I take it back.

Hey, I spent the last two years calling for David Cooper to replace him.

Well, in 2011 and 2012 Cooper would have been an improvement. But Lind's 2013 seems comfortably beyond Cooper's best case scenario. So far.

What does it mean? What the hell should one expect from him next year? It's been feast or famine with this guy.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#274550) #

I believe the phrases "easy out" and "swing is too long" were being bandied about a few weeks ago.

Last year when I suggested that certain Jays hitters adopt a more disciplined approach at the plate, a few posters opined that with inferior hitters like Lind, they might be better off just hacking away. His OBP is currently .411.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#274551) #

I sure hope Lind has something figured out but, as Wilner likes to point out, it's not like this is completely foreign. Heading into the game on June 19th, 2011, Adam Lind was hitting .339/.384/.633 in 200 PA. That's 70 points of OPS in nearly the same sample size.

It's funny you say that, greenfrog, because I've heard more than once how Lind is being MORE aggressive at the plate this year, and that mixed messages from Farrell & Murphy about working counts may have played a role in his lack of success in 2012. Who the heck knows.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#274552) #

Buck Martinez: "Clayton Kershaw has not exactly burned things up".

Ahem. ERA is 1.84. Averaging 7 innings per start. 104 baserunners in 107 innings. 104 strikeouts. But with a 5-4 record, he clearly does not know how to win.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#274554) #

Rasmus on 1st, Izturis at bat, 1 out. Good time for H and R, but Gibbons doesn't.

Oceanbound - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#274555) #

Cecil is ridiculous

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#274556) #

Is that a knuckle-curve? That thing is nasty.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#274557) #

Definitely a beautiful piece of pitching.

CeeBee - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#274558) #

Cecil has definitely pulled an "Adam Lind" this year. knock on wood :)

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#274559) #

A triple down the right-field line from Kawasaki. That's exactly the right response to a nasty 3rd strike call the previous at-bat after 6 fouls.

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#274560) #

That was definitely intentional.

I hope the Blue Jays don't respond to that type of display. You're getting beat fair and square and you endanger a career in the name of intimidation. Such nonsense.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#274563) #

If it was intentional, I hope the Jays do respond to it. Dirk Hayhurst did not believe that to be the case.

robertdudek - Wednesday, June 19 2013 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#274564) #

I believe that some teams around MLB are taking exception to EE's homerun trot (and I'm not surprised).

Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#274565) #

Disappointed with the attendance for this series (71,033), Teams on a roll and few people are interested. Sad, very sad.

I'm enjoying what they are doing right now and hope the magic never ends. Everyone is a little more relaxed knowing what each other can do, no one has to over-try like they were trying earlier this season.

Oceanbound - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#274566) #

Don't know if that pitch was intentional, it wasn't all that high. What made it weirder was Torrealba being real mad after that pitch for some reason.

But even if it was intentional, respond to it? How? When these teams play again in 3 years?

Dave Rutt - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#274570) #

But even if it was intentional, respond to it? How? When these teams play again in 3 years?

Incidentally, I strongly remember watching the Rockies at the RC last time they were here. It was one of the better games I've attended. Hold on, going to look it up...

Down 6-3 at one point, Troy Glaus tied it at 6 with a two-run single and a sac fly. The game went to extras, Tulo hit a two-run homer in the top of the 10th, and then the Jays walked off on a Johnny Mac double which scored Matt Stairs, Aaron Hill, and thanks to an E2, Curtis Thigpen for the winning run. Here's the box.

uglyone - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 02:49 AM EDT (#274571) #

brett cecil is one bad*** mother******

smcs - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 02:54 AM EDT (#274572) #

Disappointed with the attendance for this series (71,033), Teams on a roll and few people are interested. Sad, very sad.

It's a midweek series going up against the NBA Finals and the Stanley Cup Final. That might not matter to hardcore baseball fans, but that matters to casual sport fans -- the ones most likely to show up because the team is on a roll. And it was against Colorado, a team with absolutely zero buzz for the casual fan and absolutely no real history against Toronto.

Compare it to other midweek interleague series in Junes past. They drew 80k against Washington last year, but Strasburg drew in 40k for 1 game. They had a series against Pittsburgh in 2011 that drew under 50k. 2010 against STL drew even less. 2009 had 60k against CIN.

John Northey - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 06:28 AM EDT (#274573) #

For attendance per game the Jays are 3rd in biggest improvement vs last year. Washington is #1 with 4k+, Baltimore #2 with 3k, then the Jays with 2.9k. The Dodgers and Oakland also are up 2k+ per game while Cincinnati is up 1.9k. No one else is up 900+ fans per game. Only 11 clubs are up at all, while Miami is down 11k per game and there are 6 clubs down 4-6k (Philly, Cubs, Rangers, Houston, Boston, Milwaukee). The Yankees are down 2.5k, Rays down 2k.

The Jays 29,989 per game attendance is #17 in MLB. Within 1000 per game of #13 Milwaukee. Top 10 requires 33k+ per game, top 5 39k. #1 is the Dodgers at 43k. The Yankees and Boston are ahead of the Jays, Baltimore just barely below, and Tampa waaaay back at 17,909 per game.

Basically the ticket sales are from the promise of the offseason (same for the Dodgers). That is starting to wear off, but this 8 game winning streak (so far) is helping regain some buzz. If the Jays can move into a playoff slot by the end of July the buzz should start to grow a lot more and 30k per game is very realistic as a season average, although 35k would be tough now (requires nearly 40k per game here on out). 2 million in attendance should be reached, with 2,5 million possible. The last time the Jays hit 2.5 in attendance was 1997, when Joe Carter still was here and Cito was on his first managing stint and the hotshot kid outfield of Stewart/Green/Cruz was first put together while a young Carlos Delgado had his first 30 HR season and Roger Clemens was having his first Cy Young year as a Blue Jay and Roy Halladay had yet to reach the major leagues.

As far as this week goes, yeah that was poor attendance vs the Rockies but the series vs Texas had 2 games in the 40's and a 3rd at 36k. The 2 game vs Atlanta had 22k for one game and 45k for the other.

85bluejay - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#274574) #

Nice streak - Pitching,Pitching,Pitching. Now comes a tough test - the next 14 games (in 14 days) comes against Balt/Tampa/Bos./Det. - all very good teams - if the Jays can emerge from this gauntlet in a similar/better position relative to the wild card race I will be impressed.
It was reported that this is the Jays best winning streak since winning 10 straight in Sept. 2008, my immediate reaction was "Good God", that probably cost us Shelby Miller, taken one pick before we got that one, Chad Jenkins - Toronto teams always seem to play well in those meaningless end of season games, much to the detriment of the club's future (the raptors cost themselves a shot at Harrison Barnes a year ago) - this is one of my pet peeves as a Toronto sports fan.

John Northey - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#274575) #

So, where are the Jays vs past seasons on the morning of June 20th?
2013: 35-36 7.5 behind the Red Sox, 4 1/2 out of the 2nd wild card (Texas)
2012: 35-33 6.5 behind the Yankees, 3 1/2 out of the 2nd wild card (Tampa)
2011: 36-36 7.5 behind the Red Sox, 6 out of the wild card
2010: 38-31 4.5 behind the Yankees, 4.5 out of the wild card (Tampa tied with Yanks)
2009: 37-32 4 behind the Red Sox, 2 out of the wild card (went 38-55 after that)
2008: 35-39 10.5 behind the Red Sox, 9 out of the wild card
2007: 33-36 11.5 behind the Red Sox, 7 1/2 out of the wild card

So really, the Jays are right about where they were last year at this time. 2009/2010 both were hopeful at this point but both collapsed. Big difference this year is the Jays are going to be having the equivalent of a couple major trades shortly as Reyes comes back (big improvement over Kawasaki) and various pitchers return (Happ, Morrow, maybe Romero, Santos) and Lawrie comes back. That fixes 2 holes in the lineup (now Izturis/Bonifacio/DeRosa/Kawasaki fight it out for one position instead of 3) and shoots the rotation and pen depth into overflow hopefully leading to a trade to get a good 2B here.

John Northey - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#274576) #

85bluejay - remember that a few picks later the Angels took Mike Trout. So the Jays could've had a killer pick still but didn't go for it. It isn't the position in the draft so much as being able to identify that talent that matters (outside of the top 3 or so picks).

Anders - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#274577) #

Incidentally, I strongly remember watching the Rockies at the RC last time they were here. It was one of the better games I've attended. Hold on, going to look it up...

Down 6-3 at one point, Troy Glaus tied it at 6 with a two-run single and a sac fly. The game went to extras, Tulo hit a two-run homer in the top of the 10th, and then the Jays walked off on a Johnny Mac double which scored Matt Stairs, Aaron Hill, and thanks to an E2, Curtis Thigpen for the winning run. Here's the box.

I was at that game! One of the top 3 I've seen in person, for sure (other contenders: Halladay's second game and the Verlander no-no).

BlueJayWay - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#274578) #

Disappointed with the attendance for this series (71,033), Teams on a roll and few people are interested. Sad, very sad.

I don't know if you can say that. The home series previous to this they drew over 120k (against Texas). Next up is against an AL East rival, first weekend of summer. Attendance will be good.

92-93 - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#274580) #

20,946, 22,852, and 27,235 are strong numbers for the Jays in the middle of the week versus an opponent with zero drawing power.

92-93 - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#274581) #

"Now comes a tough test - the next 14 games (in 14 days) comes against Balt/Tampa/Bos./Det. - all very good teams - if the Jays can emerge from this gauntlet in a similar/better position relative to the wild card race I will be impressed."

It's a key part of the season, because coming out of the All-Star break the schedule is very soft. They open with a 10 game homestand vs. TB/LAD/HOU, a 10 game West Coast swing through OAK/LAA/SEA, and then home to 4 more vs. OAK before 10 against the AL East.

Dave Till - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#274587) #

I don't know what's going to happen next, but I am at least grateful that the games are still meaningful now. When the Jays were at 10-21, it looked like they were going to be out of contention by Victoria Day.

(I think I remember writing that they would need to win about 10 in a row to have a chance - we're almost there now!)

With an eight-game winning streak, and Jose Reyes about to return, there are honest-to-goodness grounds for optimism right now. We should enjoy this moment, just in case.

As for Adam Lind: perhaps it's just been a question of health. We tend to discount this. If someone has one off year, we are more willing to believe that undisclosed injuries may be a factor. If someone has three off years, we tend to assume that he's just bad. Another factor might be that he has finally made an adjustment or two, and can now hit pitches he couldn't hit before (or is laying off pitches out of the strike zone that he can't hit). A batter who makes a major adjustment is often rewarded with a honeymoon period, as opposing teams won't have updated their book on him, and will keep throwing him pitches that he can now hit. (Recall those happy days when the word on Jose Bautista was that he couldn't turn on an inside fastball.)

ayjackson - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#274588) #

Change of approach and health might go hand in hand with Adam's resurgence. He's reportedly swinging at 90%, which might be helping him layoff pitches outside the zone, put more balls in play, AND keep his troublesome back from acting up.

Intricated - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#274589) #

Along the lines of things we tend to discount when criticizing other human beings that just happen to be paid millions to play a game, another observation on Lind:

Pre-Paternity List (Apr 2-23): 244/396/713 in 53 PA
Post-Paternity Litst (Apr 28-present): 367/409/1029 in 164 PA

Coincidental perhaps, but real just the same.

John Northey - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#274590) #

As a parent I'd expect the post to be worse - of course that might just be because I was woke up at 2:45 AM by my 12 year old who had a stomach ache (probably from eating too much).

I suspect for Lind it is health and a new approach. The club was careful to keep him away from LHP for the first month + of the year, and during that time he was taking walks like mad but no power. Then something changed and the power came back while walks went down.
Game 1 to May 6th: 0 HR 228/392/298 16 BB vs 13 H
May 7th to today: 9 HR 388/413/664 7 BB vs 52 H and 9 HR - first HR was hit on May 7th, next 2 games later, then 2 games later another then 2 more the game after that.

That looks like Kawasaki for the first month, then I don't know who after that - JPA with another 150 points of batting average I guess.

earlweaverfan - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#274591) #

He's reportedly swinging at 90%, which might be helping him layoff pitches outside the zone, put more balls in play, AND keep his troublesome back from acting up

I like this explanation. When I saw his second last HR, it seemed like he scarcely put any effort into it at all. In the very few good golf shots I have ever taken, it feels like I have added no extra force in my swing at all, just making a smooth and effortless swing. In baseball, and speaking very un-technically, it seems to me that one of the great skills is combining high bat speed with light bat force. Is that what part of what people mean when they say a hitter has a sweet swing?

John Northey - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#274593) #

Checking positions by sOPS+ (vs the league at that position...
Super positions: 120+ sOPS+: P (150 - all Dickey), 1B (139)
Solid positions: 100-119 sOPS+: DH (118), RF (112), SS (109), CF (108)
OK positions: 90-00 sOPS+: CA (91), LF (91)
In danger: 80-89 sOPS+: none
Uh oh: sub 80 sOPS+: 3B (78), PH (78), 2B (62), PH for DH (-47 over 7 PA)

At 3B it has been helped a lot by Encarnacion (171 sOPS+ 8 games) and Bautista (157 sOPS+ 3 games). Then comes Lawrie's 75 sOPS+, then DeRosa's 67 and Izturis' 40 (plus LaRoche's 0-4). Easy to see why the Jays keep putting Encarnacion out there.

At 2B it has been ugly no matter who was there - DeRosa 85 (33 PA), Bonifacio 67 (151 PA), Izturis 46 (89 PA - 212/239/282). Remember, this is vs only others at 2B, not DH's and 1B and outfielders.

For PH DeRosa has done well - 16 PA 267 sOPS+ (1.167 OPS). Lind and Izturis also over 100 (9 & 4 PA). But 8 guys have negative sOPS+ at this (JPA 0-6 HBP, Bonifacio 0-5). Someone hitting a HR would probably jump this stat though with just 62 PA so far.

Yeah, this doesn't really tell us much we didn't already know - 2B is a black hole for offense, 3B has been bad since Lawrie wasn't really hitting. Although most probably don't know that at SS Kawasaki has a 96 sOPS+ and it is so OBP heavy it probably puts him in the upper half of all SS offensively.

Gerry - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#274595) #

Shi Davidi has a good story about Colby Rasmus;

Typically in years past, an 0-fer night would have sent a frustrated Colby Rasmus directly into the batting cage for a couple hundred swings, the centre-fielder determined to immediately identify and correct the flaw that led to a sub-par performance.

Often he’d work to the point of exhaustion, beating himself up throughout an exercise incredibly self-destructive, both physically and mentally. Over time those habits became increasingly detrimental, to the point that the Toronto Blue Jays identified them as factors behind his second-half collapse last year.

................

Asked why he can’t simply forget a rough night and move on, he replies: “I was never able to look at it that way. St. Louis was very result-oriented, if you go 0-fer, you didn’t play the next day when I was a rookie, so it was instilled in me when I was 22 years old and I didn’t know no different. I just tried to listen to what they say and do it, sometimes good, sometimes bad.”

ayjackson - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#274597) #

Our rotation by SIERA:

Johnson 3.75
Wang 3.93
Rogers 4.28
Beuhrle 4.30
Dickey 4.65

Nothing to write home about but much much improved, and with our bullpen and offense, good enough to make a run, I'd wager.

ayjackson - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#274598) #

While I'm at it, our bullpen by SIERA:

Cecil 2.33
Perez 2.43
Janssen 2.52
Loup 2.84
Delabar 3.31
Wagner 3.60
Oliver 4.17
McGowan 5.23

Pretty sweet.

uglyone - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#274599) #

Adam Lind's dramatic decrease in swing% (5% lower than his career lows, 8% lower than his career average, and 11% lower than his career highs) give us hope that a guy like JPA can one day see the light as well.

uglyone - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#274601) #

richardjustice

Blue Jays reliever Brett Cecil has gone 38 batters without allowing a hit, a franchise record.

John Northey - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#274603) #

Sweet streak by Cecil. A ways to go for the all-time record. 25 1/3 IP of no-hit ball by Cy Young in 1904. Up to 11 2/3 IP since the last hit (10 2/3 if you don't count the inning he allowed a hit then got 3 outs after it).

Hodgie - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#274607) #

Continuing with the Brett Cecil love-in, since he was last scored upon Mr. Cecil has compiled the following line covering 15 appearances:

17.2IP 2H 0R 3BB 21K

Apparently a 36% K% and 59% GB% are good things and will do wonders for somebody trying to prevent runs. Not bad for a guy I worried would provide any meaningful contributions to a club given his propensity to give up the long ball over the last couple of seasons.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#274610) #

Melky Cabrera is really struggling defensively in the outfield because of his injury. WAR says that he has negative value when everything is accounted for, and I wonder if he might go on the DL when Reyes returns.

Alex Obal - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#274612) #

It's kind of funny how, when there's 0 or 2 out and a slow hitter pokes one into the left field corner, Cabrera just saunters over to pick it up, fully aware that he has no play at second, and that the runner will make no effort whatsoever to take third.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#274613) #

Funny if you're under 30 (and healthy), and painful if you're over 50. Watching Cabrera hobble reminds those of us in the half-century club about our weakness. Time for some rock and roll to blow it away...

Ryan Day - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#274614) #

I kind of wonder if Adam Lind would be better in left than Melky right now. Probably not, since Cabrera at least has a basic understanding of the postion, but I suspect it would be close.

uglyone - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#274616) #

I'd probably put EE out there ahead of Lind. EE has some natural athleticism and range, and a strong arm.

Lylemcr - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#274619) #

I think Lind and JPA are two different players. Lind was always known for his hitting ability, it was just a matter of putting the pieces together. I think JPA has holes in his swing. Hopefully, I am wrong...

mathesond - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#274621) #

Time for some rock and roll to blow it away...

Perhaps we will cross paths at the Alabama Shakes show tonight?

JB21 - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#274623) #

The Jays tried EE in LF last year and if memory serves me correctly he played 1 game and injured himself. Probably a good idea not to mess with one of, if not your best hitter in a foreign position, unless it's 1B.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 20 2013 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#274626) #

Perhaps we will cross paths at the Alabama Shakes show tonight?

Not going, but would love to be there.

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#274635) #

It occurs to me that a relief pitcher for a LH platoon left-fielder deal would allow the club to make a seamless transition-Reyes off the DL, Cabrera to it.

"Where have you gone, John Lowenstein?" doesn't have much rhythm, I am afraid, but I'll buy the sentiment.

Ryan Day - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#274642) #

I'd probably put EE out there ahead of Lind. EE has some natural athleticism and range, and a strong arm.

Probably, but on our All Out-of-Position Team, EE is already playing third.

John Northey - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#274647) #

So who to play in LF then? Davis would be part of it, probably mixed with Gose if he hadn't gone into a funk in AAA. Odds are with the Jays Davis would be out there everyday. Gose really is the only guy to platoon him with, or maybe Bonifacio (ick). Maybe Adam Loewen as he is about the only other LH hitting outfielder in AA/AAA although I wouldn't bet on him hitting any better than Davis would vs RHP in the majors.

Perhaps before DL'ing him just give him a few days off. He has been in every single game so far.

Ryan Day - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#274648) #

Loewen is on a hot streak right now, so you could try him and see if he can keep it going a little; I'm not sure if anyone sees him as more than a minor league guy, though. Unfortunately, all the other options - Gose, Sierra, Pillar - are terrible right now.

Jim Negrych has played a few games in LF over his career. Maybe he's not awful out there?

If the Jays really insist on keeping Bonifacio around, it could make sense to DL Melky, play Bonifacio in LF, and slide Kawasaki over to 2b.

greenfrog - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#274649) #

Someone like Nate McClouth would be a useful platoon player / bench bat to have on the roster. Experienced (but not old), plays LF, bats left and hits RHP quite well, and wouldn't require a lot to acquire. Obviously the Jays aren't getting McClouth, but he's the kind of player AA could target.

92-93 - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#274650) #

Lincoln for Snider?

John Northey - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#274651) #

92-93: Heh. Problem is Snider has really fallen off the cliff. 236/301/361 overall, 249/309/387 vs RHP.

85bluejay - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#274653) #

The Cubs are likely to make Nate Schierholtz available - he'd be a great fit - Sierra for Schierholtz?

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#274654) #

FWIW, when Reyes comes back, I'd most like to see Kawasaki/Izturis at second and Izturis/DeRosa at third. I'd like to see Bonifacio get a start a week to give Reyes and Izturis a day off every two weeks. I see Kawasaki as likely a good defender at second with his arm weakness being less of an issue than it is at shortstop.

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#274655) #

Schierholtz would be a good fit indeed. I'd send Sierra and a reliever for him.

Magpie - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#274656) #

Lincoln for Snider?

Alex Presley, also a LH bat, still has options, which is why the Pirates keep sending him to AAA instead of Snider. He ought to be cheap as well. Jose Tabata is supposed to start his rehab assignment today, and if he doesn't step up during the next month and seize the RF job in Pittsburgh (the Pirates are getting the worst production from the RF position of any team in the NL - it's the team's obvious, gaping hole), the Pirates will probably start inquiring about Giancarlo Stanton.

John Northey - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#274658) #

Y'know, with that gapping hole at 2B an interesting item came up on BBTF - the Rangers were looking to trade Jurickson Profar for David Price at one time, but the joke now is that would only happen if Davish was included. I wonder... the Jays have a few pitchers both starting and relieving that might be able to be traded and a young 20 year 2B would be sweet. Last time the Jays went and got a very young 2B in a trade things worked out pretty well. Of course, if Texas was nuts enough to do that trade AA would be all over it I suspect. 20 year olds who can play in the majors are not common or easy to get.

92-93 - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#274659) #

Snider's bad line vs. RHP, when combined with his speed & defense, would make him an asset for this team's bench as currently constructed.

John Northey - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#274661) #

Snider's speed seems to be vanishing though - 2 stolen bases, 2 caught stealing, the 2 triples is good though. His defense in RF has been fine this year (13 UZR/150) but lifetime is just 4.2 in RF, 2.1 in LF, and negative in CF. With his OPS+ at 88 I don't see a ton of value there.

uglyone - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#274664) #

Overall

M.Cabrera: 307pa, .278/.321/.370/.691, .304woba, 90wRC+
R.Davis: 110pa, .301/.330/.388/.718, .315woba, 97wRC+
T.Snider: 209pa, .236/.301/.361/.662, .290woba, 84wRC+

V. RHP

M.Cabrera: 227pa, .297/.341/.392/.733, .322woba, 101wRC+
R.Davis: 59pa, .291/.310/.364/.674, .295woba, 83wRC+
T.Snider: 188pa, .249/.309/.387/.696, .315woba, 93wRC+

V. LHP

R.Davis: 51pa, .313/.353/.417/.770, .337woba, 112wRC+
M.Cabrera: 80pa, .227/.266/.307/.572, .255woba, 55wRC+
T.Snider: 21pa, .111/.238/.111/.349, .182woba, 10wRC+

whatever we do, I'd say we should try to avoid trading for a downgrade.

Kasi - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#274665) #

But uglyone, if we only gave him one more chance, he'll be the player we all hoped and wished he'd be. Talk about the great white hope.

I still think Lincoln can be a useful reliever, just right now relief pitching is something we're pretty full on.

Ryan Day - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#274666) #

I don't think the Jays are likely to make a major upgrade in left - Melky is still signed for another year at $8 million. They just need to get his hamstrings better - whether the cure is a stint on the DL, or just a week or two playing mostly DH, I don't know.

Fun fact: In 8 games at third, Edwin is hitting 286/394/607. If Detroit can live with a great-bat/poor-glove 3B, maybe we can, too.

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#274667) #

I think that Cabrera needs a DL stint, and my very, very subjective opinion is that it will be significantly more than 15 days.

John Northey - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#274668) #

Its funny how many feel Cabrera needs a DL stint yet the Jays have yet to give him even one game off. Just Cabrera and Encarnacion have yet to take a day off. Only twice did he not start the game (last on June 1st) and 50 times he played the full game. I somehow think the Jays feel he is OK even if our eyes say differently.

I feel a few games off here and there, mixing in Davis or whoever, wouldn't be a bad thing. I recall a study years ago that showed 5 games off a season tended to keep guys a lot 'fresher' (ie: hitting well late in the season). Forget where I saw it though.

uglyone - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#274669) #

The Pirates would likely make that trade, though.

CF A.McCutchen (26): 301pa, 124wRC+, +16.0uzr/150@cf
LF S.Marte (24): 303pa, 120wRC+, +21.7uzr/150@lf
OF J.Tabata (24): 90pa, 112wRC+, +30.0uzr/150#lf, -38.1uzr/150@rf
OF A.Presley (27): 41pa, 110wRC+, +9.4uzr/150@lf, +1.7uzr/150@rf
OFF G.Jones (32): 228pa, 106wRC+, -36.2uzr/150@lf, -51.0uzr/150@rf
OF T.Snider (25): 209pa, 84wRC+, -33.9uzr/150@lf, +13.0uzr/150@rf

their 'pen has been good, but it never hurts to have another arm with options to stash in the minors, as they've been moving arms up and down all year to try and fill in the backend of their 'pen too:

J.Grilli 32.2ip, 1.10era, 0.88fip, 1.81xfip
M.Melancon 36.1ip, 0.99era, 1.68fip, 1.98xfip
J.Wilson 41.2ip, 2.16era, 3.22fip, 3.57xfip
V.Mazzarro 30.2ip, 3.23era, 3.90fip, 4.00xfip
B.Morris 32.2ip, 2.48era, 4.89fip, 4.37xfip
T.Watson 35.1ip, 4.08era, 4.24fip, 4.48xfip
J.Hughes 16.1ip, 4.96era, 4.95fip, 4.39xfip

J.Gomez 13.2ip, 2.63era, 4.74fip, 4.50xfip
R.Reid 4.2ip, 1.93era, 6.05fip, 4.17xfip
J.Sanchez 2.1ip, 7.71era, 10.77fip, 2.64xfip
C.Leroux 4.0ip, 6.75era, 9.30fip, 6.40xfip
J.Contreras 5.0ip, 9.00era, 7.25fip, 5.50xfip
M.Zagurski 6.0ip, 15.00era, 8.05fip, 7.06xfip

I'm sure the Pirates wouldn't mind having the NL-version of Lincoln the reliever that they had last time.

Not to mention that with all the injuries to their rotation (MacDonald, Rodriguez, Burnett, Karstens, Irwin) having a guy who could start in a pinch might be useful, too.

Nigel - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#274670) #

I really don't think that sending Melky to the DL will help all that much. He didn't have much speed last year and there was no discussion of hamstring problems in SF. I do think the team needs to think about finding a long term solution for LF - whether its a platoon partner for Davis (which I'd be fine with) or a full time replacement.

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#274671) #

Its funny how many feel Cabrera needs a DL stint yet the Jays have yet to give him even one game off. Just Cabrera and Encarnacion have yet to take a day off. Only twice did he not start the game (last on June 1st) and 50 times he played the full game. I somehow think the Jays feel he is OK even if our eyes say differently.

I think that the Jays feel (rightly or wrongly) that he is the best leadoff hitter available, and that his everyday presence is intimately tied in with Reyes' absence. I think that he is still a pretty good hitter, but the way he is moving right now, he is not an asset.

92-93 - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#274672) #

2013 WPA:

Travis Snider +1.40
Melky Cabrera -1.65

Paul D - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#274681) #

92-93, I usually only see WPA used in reference to relievers - my understanding was that it was problematic for hitters. Any reason you like it for hitters?

92-93 - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#274683) #

It allows me to see the effect a player has had on his team's games from an offensive perspective. It has zero predictive value, but it's the most accurate representation of what has already happened. Stats like WAR and wOBA aren't context-dependent and do very little in telling you what has actually occurred. Melky's overall hitting line may be better, but he isn't contributing to his team winning a specific ballgame more often than Snider, and it isn't close. That WPA makes no effort to include baserunning & defense is an even bigger indictment of Melky's production thus far.

Last year's WPA leaders were Trout, Posey, Fielder, McCutchen, and Cabrera.

Paul D - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#274684) #

Does that mean that you'd have preferred to have had Snider over Melky for the first 3 months of the season? I've always thought of context dependent as a weakness, not a strength.

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#274686) #

Snider's 2013 batting line is worse than his career batting line. Over his career, he has a negative WPA. The only reason he has a positive WPA in 2013 is that he happens to have hit well in the clutch over a 3 month period. There is no evidence that he is a "clutch" hitter (if that can be said about anyone), and so this is almost certainly random variation in hitting over clutch and non-clutch situations.

You don't want to use WPA as a tool to decide whether to acquire a position player. Trust me on that one.

85bluejay - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#274688) #

I predict sometime this season, Pittsburgh will DFA Snider

hypobole - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#274691) #

Players regularly used as late inning pinch hitters would be far more likely to build up their WPA, because they would almost always face an opposite arm pitcher in high leverage situations.

Mike Green - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#274693) #

Yes and no. Hitters do less well when pinch-hitting than when in the lineup. And being in a high-leverage situation can cut both ways.

John Northey - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#274696) #

When it comes to context I see it as more useful to see how much a manager trusts a certain player than to see if that player added or lost value. Sometimes it can be useful to see if a certain player always flops in pressure too, although generally that isn't much of an issue.

For the pen it might be best to check gmLI - game entering Leverage Index. I've normally checked aLI which is average leverage but gmLI is more instructive to what a manager thinks of a guy. For the Jays pen we see...
gmLI over 1.5: Juan Perez (2.4) Casey Janssen (1.8)
gmLI over 1 : Wagner, Delabar, Lincoln, Oliver, McGowan, Redmond, Loup, Santos
gmLI over 0.9: Cecil, Gonzalez, Weber
gmLI of 0.7 or less: Rogers, Jeffress, Ortiz, Storey, Bush, Germano

Clearly Gibbons thinks highly of Perez so far, and since that is in declining order Wagner is next on the 'pressure must use' guys. Sadly they don't list gmLI on the game logs just aLI but using aLI you see Cecil was used in 14 games (out of 32) in super low pressure situations Obviously Gibbons trusts him now, but from May 2nd to May 25th Cecil had aLI's under 1 in ever single appearance (10 appearances). In fact, in Cecil appearances from the start to May 25th the team was just 6-17. Since then he has allowed just 1 hit (the first batter he faced the next game he appeared in) and the team is 7-2 in those games with 3 of those 9 being low leverage and 4 being very high leverage (1.5 or more).

92-93 - Friday, June 21 2013 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#274698) #

"Does that mean that you'd have preferred to have had Snider over Melky for the first 3 months of the season? I've always thought of context dependent as a weakness, not a strength."

Of course not, though if you're telling me I could've spent that 8m elsewhere and there was a viable alternative (at 2B) I might change my mind. The discussion was about a platoon in LF while Melky is on the DL and this team needing someone to be paired with Rajai, so Snider is a clear fit and would've been nice to have around even with the team acquiring Melky. These sorts of things are impossible though when you run 8 man bullpens on a consistent basis.

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